Below is a preliminary Mackerras pendulum/table based on current results. The first thing to note is that the Liberals seem to be enjoying one-way traffic in late counting. They have taken the lead in Dickson, Swan and Bowman, appear home-and-hosed in La Trobe and are strongly placed in Macarthur. An 862 vote lead in McEwen would also normally be a basis on which to claim victory, but there are reports of “the discovery of about 3000 votes wrongly sent to neighbouring Scullin” which don’t seem to have been factored in yet. Only in Herbert has late counting actively improved Labor’s position. They are also keeping their noses in front in Solomon, although the imminent count of electronically lodged military votes might narrow the gap. If these trends continue Labor will end up with a relatively disappointing haul of 84 seats, against 64 for the Coalition and two independents. In that case it would take a loss of only nine seats at the next election for Labor to lose its majority, which would occur on a uniform swing of just 1.7 per cent. Bennelong again emerges as the litmus test seat: Labor can take comfort in the likelihood that it will swing heavily to them in John Howard’s absence. The next seat up the pendulum is Petrie in northern Brisbane, where Labor currently leads by 2.3 per cent.
Labor supporters might assume that federal politics will now follow the precedent established time and again at state level, where Labor enjoyed landslide re-election wins after establishing themselves in power. However, the historical record at the federal level offers the unhappy precedent of first-term swings against every post-war government (though only in 1998 was it greater than 1.7 per cent). I have a high enough opinion of Malcolm Turnbull to imagine he can steer the party clear of many of the obstacles that have faced it at state level, should the party be sensible enough to make him leader. Whoever takes the mantle, they will face the severe difficulty of a party room dominated by members from Western Australia, whose sensitivity to the national mood is indicated by today’s front page headline in The West Australian: “WA Libs demand party stands by WorkChoices”.
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26.5 Batman 25.4 Grayndler 24.1 Throsby 23.6 Melbourne 23.3 Wills 22.0 Gellibrand 21.2 Scullin 21.0 Chifley 21.0 Gorton 21.0 Watson 20.0 Port Adelaide 20.0 Sydney |
New England 24.6 (IND vs NAT) Mallee 21.6 |
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19.5 Calwell 19.2 Blaxland 18.9 Fowler 18.5 Cunningham 17.0 Reid 16.4 Hunter 15.9 Newcastle 15.8 Lalor 15.6 Denison 15.6 Fraser 15.3 Maribyrnong 15.3 Werriwa 15.1 Shortland |
Murray 18.3 O’Connor 16.6 Kennedy 15.9 (IND vs ALP) Riverina 15.7 |
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14.9 Oxley 13.9 Prospect 13.7 Hotham 13.6 Kingsford Smith 13.5 Capricornia 13.3 Charlton 13.1 Lingiari 12.5 Barton 12.5 Griffith 12.3 Holt 12.0 Rankin 11.8 Canberra 11.2 Banks |
Moncrieff 14.4 Curtin 14.3 Bradfield 13.6 Maranoa 13.0 Mackellar 12.6 Parkes 12.4 Mitchell 11.4 Calare 11.3 Farrer 11.3 Fadden 10.4 |
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9.5 Corio 9.5 Fremantle 9.5 Richmond 9.4 Perth 9.2 Jagajaga |
Warringah 9.5 Moore 9.3 Barker 9.1 Pearce 9.1 Indi 9.0 |
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8.7 Bruce 8.6 Ballarat 8.6 Lilley 8.6 Lyons 8.5 Adelaide 8.0 Melbourne Ports |
Kooyong 8.9 Tangney 8.8 Berowra 8.7 McPherson 8.7 Lyne 8.4 Wide Bay 8.3 Groom 8.1 |
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7.9 Isaacs 7.8 Makin 7.5 Chisholm 7.4 Lowe 7.4 Macquarie 7.2 Parramatta 7.1 Lindsay 7.0 Brisbane |
Flinders 7.8 Wannon 7.3 Cook 7.1 |
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6.9 Wakefield 6.1 Brand 6.0 Bendigo |
Higgins 6.8 Mayo 6.8 Casey 6.1 |
| 5.1 Hindmarsh |
Forrest 5.8 Gippsland 5.7 Menzies 5.7 Goldstein 5.6 Canning 5.4 North Sydney 5.2 Aston 5.1 |
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4.9 Blair 4.8 Bonner 4.8 Moreton 4.7 Leichhardt 4.6 Kingston 4.5 Franklin 4.1 Dobell 4.1 Eden-Monaro |
McMillan 4.9 Greenway 4.6 |
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3.7 Longman 3.5 Dawson 3.1 Forde |
Grey 3.9 Ryan 3.8 Wentworth 3.7 Dunkley 3.5 Gilmore 3.4 Hume 3.4 |
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2.6 Flynn 2.4 Page 2.3 Petrie |
Boothby 2.9 Fairfax 2.6 Fisher 2.6 |
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1.7 Bennelong 1.7 Deakin 1.5 Braddon 1.4 Hasluck |
Hughes 1.8 Kalgoorlie 1.6 Cowan 1.4 Hinkler 1.2 Paterson 1.2 Stirling 1.1 Cowper 1.0 Sturt 1.0 |
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0.9 Bass 0.9 Corangamite 0.8 Solomon 0.5 Robertson 0.4 Herbert |
La Trobe 0.5 McEwen 0.5 Macarthur 0.4 Bowman 0.02 Swan 0.02 Dickson 0.01 |
720 Comments
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I think that Labor could bar an economic crash pick up seats in 2010 or a double dissolution before then peticularly in W.A. like Bracks did in 2002.
The Liberals obviously use their electoral funding to mail out the poastal vote form. Anyone here live in a Labor electorate, and received from their MHR the postal vote form?
Maybe this will change to Labor at the next election.
Also. at the pre-poll, no significant restrictions on the reason. So lots of people were pre-polling.
I also had the Labor HTVs for State/National, although no real need for them, about 6 enquiries, and that’s in a tourist area.
Elections since 1983 where the winning party had 51% TPP or less
Election year ALP Coalition
1987 50.8W 49.2
1990 49.1W 50.9
1998 51.1 48.9W
2001 49.0 51.0W
Tom a hell of a lot of Liberals voted for Labor, now if just a handful of those change their votes next time round Labor marginals will be brought into play, at least with the massive amount of seats under 2.5% this makes 2010 interesting.
Sorry that didn’t come out properly.
Elections since 1983 where the winning party had 51% TPP or less
1987 ALP 50.8%
1990 ALP 49.1%
1998 Lib/Nats 48.9%
2001 Lib/Nats 51%
Glen, have you gotten used to the sound of ‘Rudd Labor Government’ yet?
Tim @ 147
Going through the vote types, there is quite a wide disparity in how successful the libs were in harvesting the pre poll vote in particular. It would be interesting to know how much of this reflects on local organisations.
In most seats, the lib pre polls were well ahead of their ‘booth’ vote – i.e in Paterson Bob Baldwins booth vote was just over 50%, but on prepolls he was 58/42. Compare that to Robertson where the ALP pre poll was higher than their booth vote – the prepolls were not much higher in Macarthur and Dobell either.
It would be interesting to hear from any insiders who can shed more light on the differences between seats.
Yes, though ive not got used to having the Liberals on so little on the news, but we are in Opposition
just got to deal with it, it aint easy after being in power for almost 12 years but meh you got to roll with the punches ND.
Generic Person Says: “Lefty E, John Howard was no right wing nutter.”
Yes, Virginia, there is an Easter Bunny…
Cheer up Glen, once a few cases hit the courts, several Liberal will be in the news in the new year
I still can’t believe the Liberals’ primary vote is worse than Labor under Latham.
That’s a stunning achievement.
Dutton is looking safer each time i refresh the AEC election results close seats page.
He is pulling away and is ahead by 257 votes with 86.43% of the vote counted
Labor squeaking home in any of the seven or so ultra-marginals still being counted won’t affect the notional swing needed to lose in 2010.
We also need to factor in, on Labor’s side for 2010, the enormous incumbency benefit to flow to MPs especially sophomores, and to the executive government generally.
Let’s see what Labor really does with government advertising for example. (Which only backfired partly on the Libs, because the WC ads were over the top in number and focused on a negative for them, but even then, Labor’s lead on IR slipped over 2007 when the ads were less partisan or at least more clever than in 2005).
The Iemma Government is the worst Government in the country in my memory, and that includes the despised Howard outfit. Iemma himself is utterly devoid of vision, Watkins is a good campaigner and the rest are utterly incompetent and malicious. In my life I have only voted Liberal twice. The last time was March 2007 and March 2011 will make it 3.
The Iemma government is a cancer in the Labor party and it must be cut out before spreads and kills the good bits of the party.
Howard Hater (138) No one is ‘underestimating Rudd’. Indeed, he has a lot of goodwill at the moment. We know he can ‘talk the talk’. We are waiting to see if he can ‘walk the walk’. My guess is that global circumstances (mainly economic) mean harder times are ahead for the party in government in Australia. We can leave the assessment of who is going to win the next election until objective observers see how Mr. Rudd handles the inevitable hard times in the next 2 to 3 years.
Incumbency didnt save Stuart Henry or Richardson or Fawcett…
Geoff Robinson @ 140, the answer to your question is ‘No’, for two reasons: the South Australian experience has demonstrated that it doesn’t work, and the need to distribute each State separately makes it impossible at Federal level.
THE AUSTRALIAN
Telstra accused of rushing AWAs
By Denis Peters | November 28, 2007
TELSTRA is rushing to sign up thousands of staff to five-year individual work contracts before the new Labor government has time to abolish them, the public service union says.
Community and Public Sector Union (CPSU) national secretary Stephen Jones accused the national carrier of engaging in a cynical post-election move.
Telstra says there is no compulsion for staff to sign the Australian Workplace Agreements (AWAs).
AWA ombudsman takes on Donut King
November 28, 2007
AUSTRALIA’S Workplace Ombudsman is taking on a Donut King franchisee
November 28, 2007
AUSTRALIA’S Workplace Ombudsman is taking on a Donut King franchisee who allegedly tried to force an employee onto an Australian Workplace Agreement (AWA).
It is alleged the Donut King at Greensborough in Melbourne’s north applied duress to a 23-year-old female employee after the management decided to move staff off the National Fast Food Retail Award 2000 and onto AWAs.
The Ombudsman said Donut King cut the woman’s hours from 36.5 hours per week to 15 hours after she refused to accept the conditions offered under the AWA.
No wonder we’re so far behind in Queensland State wise, Flegg shoud have done a Gorton and voted to remove himself, 8 State MPs that is not a bad its shameful.
Howdy Doody rejects leadership of the National Agrarian Socialist Workers Party of Australia
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/mcgauran-rejects-nats-leadership/2007/11/28/1196036948421.html
No, but fortunately the voters saved us from them.
Showson:
Out of interest, have you added the Nationals and CLP vote to the Liberal tally to perform a fair comparison ?
Peter Lindasy in Herbert is just 44 votes behind the ALP with 15% left to count.
Andrew Laming is 21 votes behind the ALP with 15% left to count.
It’s a squeaker ladies and gents.
In Parramatta we received a postal voting application form from both major parties.
AB in Melbourne Ports we received postal voting forms from both parties too, if Labor didnt do it in some seats its their own fault, though im not complaining.
.
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Collecting the driftwood after the ship has gone down.
Seeing debates about different electoral systems, as a general comment there is no electoral system that guarantees a perfect translation from voters will to seats in parliament. Not only that, but political parties are not dumb actors and will actively seek to exploit any distortion in the system that works to their own rational self interest.
Further, regardless of which system we debate, the closer you get to a 50/50 split between two parties, the greater the risk that a side receiving less than 50% of teh vote may win the majority of the seats. In Australian history, if the margin gets within 1%, it is a lottery. But above that, it is rare for the will of the majority to be denied.
So what is my point? Simply that I am not really bothered about debates about first past the post versus preferences and so on. In discussing any meaningful reform, that is not the key issue. The real reform issues are transparency, accountability, disclosure of funding sources, minimising the powers of encumbancy (media $, choice of timing), and lessening the politicisation of the public service. That is where I would like to see some action.
Instead of another republic referendum why not a Constitutional Convention to write a new constitution?
Plenty of countries have had many constitutions – a lot of the text doesn’t match what we actually do and we can insert human rights clauses like Germany that cannot be amended or removed.
130 Ron Brown
Howard supports anything that wins votes? Would that be the GST, Iraq War or Workchoice
Maybe you mean the guy who wants to be a social conservative?
People skills man claims underdog status: http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/im-the-underdog-abbott/2007/11/28/1196036951844.html
Laming was leading this morning. If he is now behind that means he is gone.
[People skills man claims underdog status: http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/im-the-underdog-abbott/2007/11/28/1196036951844.html
Bull$hit! He isn’t an under dog, he’s just a dog.
Jasmine we don’t need a bill of rights, our rights are protected by common law.
Rudd will save all those things, incl a Republic for his probable second term, he’ll be as conservative as possible in his first IHMO.
180
ShowsOn – Laming is behind by 21 votes with 15% left to count, it’s hardly over for Lamington.
Pancho@179
I read that Mad Monk article now I’m depressed.
“I’m here for the long haul. I regarded myself as a career politician ever since I entered parliament and that’s not changing.”
Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo………………………
George Williams, from http://evatt.org.au/publications/papers/165.html:
“Australia is now the only democratic nation without a national Bill of Rights. Indeed, some form of protection for and exception about basic rights is seen as an essential component of democratic governance around the world. I am not aware of any nation that has gained a new Constitution in the last two decades that has not included some form of bill of rights, nor am I aware of any democratic nation that has ever done away with its Bill of rights once it has been enacted.
Indeed, we now find ourselves in the strange position of supporting such instruments overseas but not in Australia. In 2004, Prime Minister John Howard stated that he “strongly supports” the “adoption of a new constitution in Iraq, including a Bill of Rights.” It is not clear why a Bill of Rights is appropriate for the people of Iraq but not for the people of the Australia. This is despite our recent history on matters ranging from the stolen generations through to the mandatory detention of asylum seekers to the banning of speech in the name of the wear of terror.”
Socrates – perhaps there should be some party list candidates elected to the lower house ie. elected in proportion to their party’s % of the national vote.
This might also have the attraction of encouraging non-political careerists into throwing their hat into the party ring as they would not have to campaign in a local electorate.
Something I haven’t seen much commentary on: the number of ALP voters who tactically voted Green (and preferenced ALP) to encourage the ALP to take more notice of the environment.
I and many people I know did this, in the knowledge that our real vote would go to Labor. I’m in Cunningham, where the Green’s Michael Organ (great name – he’s called locally “The Green Member”) was briefly in the Reps after a byelection in 2002. That was ALP voters sending a message to get rid of Crean.
This ALP-supporters-tactically-voting-Green phenomenon is very real, and is something that Nick Minchin (what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he is) ignores when he skites about the Lib’s primary vote being nearly as high as Labor’s.
And, BTW, loved Crikey’s description yesterday of Brendan Nelson as “not a real person., more like a photocopy of a real person” …
Glen 182
“Jasmine we don’t need a bill of rights, our rights are protected by common law.”
While I respect your views normally, this is utter rubbish. Common Law at best protects you against other citizens, it certainly doesn’t protect you from the government. Glen, have you ever read Edmund Burke, JS Mill or the other founders of Liberalism? If yes, you could not type that without wincing.
I think many Australians have never even read our constitution and do not realise how few rights they have. Most of those we do have are only implied after a few High Court cases, and could just as easily be wiped out by an act of parliament because they are not constitutionally protected. The regrettable anti-terror legislation, both ineffective and unjust, demonstrates this all too well. Indeed, many rights that were enshrined by enactments of British legislation after 1901 were Not enacted here once our legal systems becamse separated, so arguably an Australian citizen has far fewer rights at law than a British one does.
We badly need a better constitution, regardless of whether we become a republic or not. If you don’t believe me, just ask David Hicks. Sorry your not allowed to.
I never had any empathy for David Hicks Socrates, i don’t feel sorry or upset about the treatment of convicted terrorists.
If you want to see what a mess a Bill of Rights creates just ask the Canadians.
Socrates im sure if Rudd gets a second term, he may push for a Bill of Rights because some of the Labor States have said they want to make their own if the Feds don’t enshrine one in the constitution.
Glen Says: “I never had any empathy for David Hicks Socrates, i don’t feel sorry or upset about the treatment of convicted terrorists.”
Wow, another one to add to the list of idiot beliefs by Glen – and now you support torture. Just brilliant.
Glen: You do realise Victoria has a bill of rights don’t you?
Glen
The problem was how David Hicks was treated before he was convicted of anything. Or what about Haneef? Do you think he was a terrorist, or that his treatment is OK? The point is not the person who is the example; it is that our system permits such things. Read your history books. We have dealt with terrorists effectively in western countries going back to the 60s without such laws.
A bill of rights is only one of many solutions. I didn’t suggest one. MO our constitution simply doesn’t define the balance of power between individuals, courts and government very clearly. The only time it faced a crisis (1975) it failed. We are a stable country because of our circumstances and traditions based on British institutions. I certainly don’t think its because of our constitution.
George where did i say i supported torture???
Just because i don’t feel sorry for him doesn’t mean i don’t like certain methods being used period.
I used to back torture but ive gone off it in recent times, just because i don’t like torture doesn’t make me feel sorry for what happened to a traitor and a terrorist like David Hicks.
Glen, how do you respond to George Williams’ argument, partly above? Why should we not have some democratically arrived at guiding principles? These will not be laws set in stone, but ideas to protect and illuminate societal ideals.
Asanque – and the ACT
Glen
I advocate abolishing the 1901 constiution and writing a completely new one that reflects what our government actually does and is in touch with the twenty-first century.
Absolutely: the ALP primary vote needs to be gauged against the Greens starting to push strategic Greens 1 ALP 2 voting this time – and in fact, I bet it becomes bigger factor next time around.
My sense is the Greens are getting better at doing the things that work. Long way to go though.
I live(d) in a Lib marginal (Moreton). Hardgrave’s postal vote form was clearly at taxpayers expense. My dim recollection is that Labor’s may also have been, at least I assumed it came via some Senator’s office. I could be wrong, but I recall looking for the obvious ‘not produced at taxpayer’s expense’ tag.
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