Below is a preliminary Mackerras pendulum/table based on current results. The first thing to note is that the Liberals seem to be enjoying one-way traffic in late counting. They have taken the lead in Dickson, Swan and Bowman, appear home-and-hosed in La Trobe and are strongly placed in Macarthur. An 862 vote lead in McEwen would also normally be a basis on which to claim victory, but there are reports of “the discovery of about 3000 votes wrongly sent to neighbouring Scullin” which don’t seem to have been factored in yet. Only in Herbert has late counting actively improved Labor’s position. They are also keeping their noses in front in Solomon, although the imminent count of electronically lodged military votes might narrow the gap. If these trends continue Labor will end up with a relatively disappointing haul of 84 seats, against 64 for the Coalition and two independents. In that case it would take a loss of only nine seats at the next election for Labor to lose its majority, which would occur on a uniform swing of just 1.7 per cent. Bennelong again emerges as the litmus test seat: Labor can take comfort in the likelihood that it will swing heavily to them in John Howard’s absence. The next seat up the pendulum is Petrie in northern Brisbane, where Labor currently leads by 2.3 per cent.
Labor supporters might assume that federal politics will now follow the precedent established time and again at state level, where Labor enjoyed landslide re-election wins after establishing themselves in power. However, the historical record at the federal level offers the unhappy precedent of first-term swings against every post-war government (though only in 1998 was it greater than 1.7 per cent). I have a high enough opinion of Malcolm Turnbull to imagine he can steer the party clear of many of the obstacles that have faced it at state level, should the party be sensible enough to make him leader. Whoever takes the mantle, they will face the severe difficulty of a party room dominated by members from Western Australia, whose sensitivity to the national mood is indicated by today’s front page headline in The West Australian: “WA Libs demand party stands by WorkChoices”.
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26.5 Batman 25.4 Grayndler 24.1 Throsby 23.6 Melbourne 23.3 Wills 22.0 Gellibrand 21.2 Scullin 21.0 Chifley 21.0 Gorton 21.0 Watson 20.0 Port Adelaide 20.0 Sydney |
New England 24.6 (IND vs NAT) Mallee 21.6 |
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19.5 Calwell 19.2 Blaxland 18.9 Fowler 18.5 Cunningham 17.0 Reid 16.4 Hunter 15.9 Newcastle 15.8 Lalor 15.6 Denison 15.6 Fraser 15.3 Maribyrnong 15.3 Werriwa 15.1 Shortland |
Murray 18.3 O’Connor 16.6 Kennedy 15.9 (IND vs ALP) Riverina 15.7 |
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14.9 Oxley 13.9 Prospect 13.7 Hotham 13.6 Kingsford Smith 13.5 Capricornia 13.3 Charlton 13.1 Lingiari 12.5 Barton 12.5 Griffith 12.3 Holt 12.0 Rankin 11.8 Canberra 11.2 Banks |
Moncrieff 14.4 Curtin 14.3 Bradfield 13.6 Maranoa 13.0 Mackellar 12.6 Parkes 12.4 Mitchell 11.4 Calare 11.3 Farrer 11.3 Fadden 10.4 |
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9.5 Corio 9.5 Fremantle 9.5 Richmond 9.4 Perth 9.2 Jagajaga |
Warringah 9.5 Moore 9.3 Barker 9.1 Pearce 9.1 Indi 9.0 |
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8.7 Bruce 8.6 Ballarat 8.6 Lilley 8.6 Lyons 8.5 Adelaide 8.0 Melbourne Ports |
Kooyong 8.9 Tangney 8.8 Berowra 8.7 McPherson 8.7 Lyne 8.4 Wide Bay 8.3 Groom 8.1 |
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7.9 Isaacs 7.8 Makin 7.5 Chisholm 7.4 Lowe 7.4 Macquarie 7.2 Parramatta 7.1 Lindsay 7.0 Brisbane |
Flinders 7.8 Wannon 7.3 Cook 7.1 |
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6.9 Wakefield 6.1 Brand 6.0 Bendigo |
Higgins 6.8 Mayo 6.8 Casey 6.1 |
| 5.1 Hindmarsh |
Forrest 5.8 Gippsland 5.7 Menzies 5.7 Goldstein 5.6 Canning 5.4 North Sydney 5.2 Aston 5.1 |
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4.9 Blair 4.8 Bonner 4.8 Moreton 4.7 Leichhardt 4.6 Kingston 4.5 Franklin 4.1 Dobell 4.1 Eden-Monaro |
McMillan 4.9 Greenway 4.6 |
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3.7 Longman 3.5 Dawson 3.1 Forde |
Grey 3.9 Ryan 3.8 Wentworth 3.7 Dunkley 3.5 Gilmore 3.4 Hume 3.4 |
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2.6 Flynn 2.4 Page 2.3 Petrie |
Boothby 2.9 Fairfax 2.6 Fisher 2.6 |
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1.7 Bennelong 1.7 Deakin 1.5 Braddon 1.4 Hasluck |
Hughes 1.8 Kalgoorlie 1.6 Cowan 1.4 Hinkler 1.2 Paterson 1.2 Stirling 1.1 Cowper 1.0 Sturt 1.0 |
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0.9 Bass 0.9 Corangamite 0.8 Solomon 0.5 Robertson 0.4 Herbert |
La Trobe 0.5 McEwen 0.5 Macarthur 0.4 Bowman 0.02 Swan 0.02 Dickson 0.01 |
720 Comments
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Labor has swung back in the lead in Bowman, receiving about 51% of the postals at the moment.
How does ‘Ave it all’ justify his waste of oxygen?
On a lighter note, Janet Albrechtsen (Nazi lite) is in the AUStralian today…with another liteheaded delusional frankly retarded piece. How is this person with so many recalcitrant and racsist views a public figure?????? Time she was relegated to the Courier mail or the daily telegraph with the other repulsive trogs. She should run on the One Nation ticket. Read her delusions…and be afraid that a trog like this has national exposure and censure from a so called ‘newspaper’.
Does she remind anyone else of Geobels wife in the german fim ‘Downfall’??? Geez the similarities are stunning.
195
Pancho – while i know ya’ll are supporting it because you are progressives and you are in it for a good cause, protecting human rights but Bills of Rights can be messy all you have to do is look at Canada.
Glen says: “Rudd will save all those things, incl a Republic for his probable second term, he’ll be as conservative as possible in his first IHMO.”
It will be interesting to see how this (republic const. reform)plays out with Turnbull as part of the leadership.
Perhaps, if we are lucky, we will have have Federation PartII.
Jasmine
I agree but think the problems in our constitution go far deeper than its dated language. The US consititution is over 100 years older but is clearer, better written and based on a coherent political philosophy. (Of course, I know the US system has many flaws). Our constitution was written by lawyers, for lawyers. It has enough loopholes to drive a GST through it.
Hmm its it just me or is the ALP starting to claw back, ever so slightly, in Bowman?
Robertson still looks ok, and Solomon’s home for ALP – the rest are looking like Lib held marginals.
Are we expecting things to drift the other way again ie have absent votes (which I gather are less pro-lib) been counted yet?
I hope Laming loses in Bowman. Having the AFP under Keelty say there was not enough evidence to warrant a prosecution for misuse of his printing entitlements, after a prolonged investigation that was never made public, is hardly a ringing endorsement.
And if he was innocent, then he never got a chance to clear his name!
If McGauran doesn’t want the Nats leadership, who’s going to get it?
Truss is considered to be too old (there’s no generational change when the new leader is 60), so does that leave Kay Hull as the only viable candidate left?
Fancy that – the Nationals could be the first major political party to have a woman as its national leader…
I hope they dont waste Turnbull this time, they should put Abbot in and Bishop and Pyne (Howard lite) until 2013 when Turnbull can be pm. I might even vote for him…..naaaaa.
Glen: your arguments against a bill of rights is simply incoherent.
If the threshold for rejecting an idea because it is ‘messy’ and has had ‘problems’ elsewhere, then nothing would ever get done.
Lefty E, yes it looks like Bowman will be extremely close… cross your fingers on the absentees and provisionals which usually work in Labor’s favour and Laming will be out.
Swing Lowe, I’ve heard Kay Hull is getting the Nats leadership.
Swing Lowe
I don’t know much about Kay Hull, but surely Barnaby Joyce would at least be considered? He has a 3 digit IQ, and is young enough to be around to rebuild.
Glen – The Canadian Bill of Rights (1960) was not a mess. It was simply thought ineffective. It was bolstered in 1982 by a Charter of Rights and Freedoms. You are not presenting an argument, or outlining why you think Australia should be the only democratic state in the world without a bill of rights.
Pancho @ 121,
Very funny.
I reckon you could start up your own desk calendar series with all the hits and memories you have cached.
Seeing the Libs will probably be broke in 2010 they’ll need to to pull a few stunts to get publicity. Are we likely to see Turnbull in speedos trying to prove how energetic and young he is?
Asanque,
“A decent idea, but it would be hard to do so we won’t bother” is the essence of conservative philosophy!!!
RA and Asanque
You kow, if they had applied that logic to WorkChoices, they might still be in government! Good thing they are hypocritically inconsistent
GG – Good idea. I’ll call it ‘The Great Credibility Extractor’.
Socrates,
Can a Senator become leader of the Nats, since they already have representation in the House?
Whilst Barnaby is their best leader, unless they parachute him into a House seat (I’m thinking Wide Bay if Truss decides to up and quit), I find it unlikely that the Nats would elect him as their leader. That said, stranger things have happened (look at the Qld Libs, for example…)
Swing Lowe
Sorry, good point. I really don’t kow what the rules are. Party leadership is another of those concepts not mentioned by our wonderful constitution.
I might be proved wrong but I supsect the party leader is whoever the party says it’s leader is.
It would have to be the consitituion of the National Party that prohibits a Senator.
If the Libs want a show in 2011 maybe they could start standing up to this sort of behaviour:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=230382
Lefty E: Herbert is looking good for a possible ALP gain, the one close seat in which postal vote counting has actually gone the ALP’s way, so far at least.
The leader of the National Party would also be Deputy Prime Minister when in government. The Deputy Prime Minister, by convention is a member of the House of Representatives.
Howard Hater, postal voting is also going Labor’s way in Bowman.
219
Swing Lowe
Michael Organ got elected as Green in Cunningham by-election in 2005. He became the only Greens HOR MP. Surely he should not have become the leader of the greens?
John Gorton was the last Senator that became leader of the Liberals. But to do it, he had to move to the House of Reps and then won Government and the PM position.
Barnaby , would have to find a safe seat in the reps, but unlike Gorton could never be PM unless the Nats can improve their position over the Libs and combined they have the numbers to form Government.
this is not going to happen, so Barnaby, has no incentive to put it all on the line.
Oh, and Howard Hater, if you look at the AEC now it looks like the postals are now running the Libs way, it’s very tight.
Who really cares about the leader of the minority party within the opposition coalition? The seats the Nats lost this time will either stay in Lab hands or go to the Libs at the next election due to the 3 cornered race.
Actually at my nooth in Henley Brook, it was the opposite, the ALP Booth Captain had the statewide HTV cards and the libs had none, so the poor lib guy had to send absentee people to us for it
IF anyone has or hears of ANY leaks regarding Labors front bench between now and when it is officially announced, PLEASE share them
I will be out tomorrow from early and not returning until almost 3pm [Sydney]. I absolutely hate being out of the information loop 
Now Costello wont eat with JHo
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22836103-12377,00.html
Did Cossie ever get that private dinner with the Howards at Kirribilli? I know he was there recently with other ministers but what about a private dinner?
Regarding the swing required to for the ALP to lose in 2010 – won’t the new incumbents now experience the sitting member factor? thus making it harder the make the 1.7% swing in these seats.
GER @ 201,
Oh dear, that poor liddle Ann Coulter wanna be! Albrechtsen and Devine are the doppleganger evil twin sisters to the great Coulter, and even in abject defeat just cannot stop looking at their reflections in that cesspool of neoconservatism.
I guess the clock is now ticking on her ABC board position, so she better enjoy what’s left of it, because she won’t be getting any more crumbs from the government’s table for her able work under it!
Barnaby Joyce = National leader, God help everyone on earth
Barnaby Joyce….the man who gave JHo the majority in the senate……now an ALP hero….long live Barnaby!
Letter to George Bush.
After numerous rounds of “We don’t even know if Osama is still alive,” Osama himself decided to send George Bush a letter in his own handwriting to let him know he was still in the game.
Bush opened the letter and it contained a single line of Coded message:
370H SSV 0773H
Bush was baffled, so he e-mailed it to Condoleezza Rice. Condi and her aides had not a clue either, so they sent it to the FBI. No one could solve it at the FBI so it went to the CIA, then to NSA.
Eventually they asked Britain ’s MI-6 for help. Within a minute MI-6 cabled the White House with this reply:
“Tell the President he’s holding the message upside down.”
Barnaby actually wasn’t the person who gave Howard the majority in the Senate.
That honor goes to Russel Trood.
Well there seems to be two schools of thought re 2010/11.
One – that federal govts generally receive a swing against them after their first term and therefore it will be tight.
Two – that it will mirror the result that state ALP govts achieved in Vic, NSW and Qld after their first terms – ie total routs with huge swings to the govt.
I’ve posted previously in favour of scenario two and I continue to favour that outcome.
Mainly because everything that the Coalition campaigned on this time around won’t work in 3 years time (assuming the global economy doesn’t go belly up, or too hot either). The unions will have shown that they are not eceonomy destroyers, and the whole ‘we have the experience’ line will no longer apply. Rudd will occupy the centre leaving the opposition to chose between being radical or irrelevant – both losing positions.
I think the factor that will break the historical pattern is the (almost) merging of the two main parties into the centre of the political spectrum. There is just very little for a centrist voter to complain about with an at least half-competent, centrist new government.
Victorian Senate is a lose for the Greens. Ther just is not enough minor party votes to see them above the line.
The Green vote (7%) dropped from 2004
The Liberals have 2.73 Quotas, The ALP 2.96 Quotas and the Greens 0.71 Quotas
Mod (1) the ALP and Liberal Vote
ALP 96% LIB 73% Greens 71% of a Quota.. (Others 60%)
The Others 60% splits (28% (LIBS) 8.79% (ALP) 20.65%)
The ALP 96%plus 8.79% has a surplus of 5% Quota Even assuming 100% ALP surplus transfer to the Greens (Carried by the ALP ATL vote)..
The Liberal Party end up with 1.01 Quotas and the Greens left with only 0.96…The minor party and the ALP can not carry them. The below the line vote for teh Greens is lock in and accounted for on the above data I do not see a hugh below the line vote for the other minor parties making up the short fall.
The Greens are the wasted quota having failed to obtain the 8.5% threshold. They were better off with David Risstrom. WHo poled 1% more then Di Natali.
For those who missed it, here’s a snippet from Miranda Devine’s dribble from the SMH the day after the election. She was, of course, ‘on hand’, at the Wentworth hotel to see the Great Leader go down:
Anthony Baume, the former Liberal member for Macarthur, had spent the day in Leumeah helping Pat Farmer’s campaign in the south-western Sydney seat, won in 1996 from Labor as a “Howard ” prize.
“Pat’s done well to resist as well as he can,” said Baume, with Farmer looking a fairly good thing to hang on to his seat.
Baume said Macarthur is really more a bellwether seat than Eden-Monaro, which star recruit Mike Kelley took for Labor from Gary Nairn.
Baume’s theory is that Howard has worked himself out of a job. The aspirationals who voted for him in 1996 and remained loyal through four elections “have achieved the great bulk of what they aspired to,” he said.
But then they wanted more, And “if you don’t get three cars in your garage rather than two, you’re p…ed off with someone”.
Dame Leonie Kramer agreed. “Once you start aspiring you never stop,” she said.
…there’s more if you can stomach it:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/night-of-blue-believers/2007/11/24/1195753380797.html
So remember these people, as they one by one, crawl back under the rocks from whence they came, because they are truly venemous. Never forget they are there, brooding and breeding, and waiting to come out and bite us should we ever become even half as hideous as them.
Regarding Turnbull, I think it could end up being a disaster for the Liberals. For now, he is their best option, and he will be made leader, because the party is desperate and he has the greatest public appeal.
But as he tries to shift the party to the Left, he will meet a lot of resistance. Already we are seeing splits emerging regarding the party’s support of WorkChoices. And the same thing will happen when Rudd and Labor start proposing anything that looks even mildly socially progressive. The Liberals will be VERY easy to wedge. Basically, the Abbott forces will want to push to the Right, along with the likes of Alex Hawke and others, while the Turnbull forces will want to shift Left.
And then with some of the state organisations filled to the bream with religious crazies and other extremists, Turnbull will have a massive task ahead of him to create any sense of unity. In fact, he could end up being a leader with minority rather than majority support behind him, which will be very destabilising.
John @ 239
I tend to agree. Not because of anything to do with past state governments but because of the other reasons you put forward. I think Rudd will be cautious, but will also set the agenda for the next 3 years, making it very hard for the Opposition to put together a strong argument for election in 2010/11.
Wouldn’t it be funny if the Turnbull- Barnaby team won the next election (obviously not the 99.8% of ALP supporters here) and Barnaby loses his senate seat to the Liberals
Now wouldn’t that be a great victory speech
242
Noocat – so long as Malcolm does well in the polls as Rudd did he shouldnt find it hard to take on the far right of the Libs.
If anything should be a guide it was Rudd’s rise to power, that’s how Malcolm should do it and i think he can.
@226 STAR Says:
Biggles became PM on 10th January 1969. He resigned as a Senator on 1st February 1969. He was elected as member for Higgins just over three weeks later. Between 1 February and 24 February he was a member of neither house of parliament.
Barnaby is no different then Brian H in Tasmania. FF vote will see the Liberals win a 3rd spot in Victoria. There is not enough postal votes in the system or minor party votes. There was a consolidation of the vote to the main players.
All Minor parties have registered a lower voter support. (As we had been predicting)
At he next election Labor will use Workchoices in the same way the Libs used 17%. We know which was more potent don’t we? It will take a long time for the coalition to live that one down.
Make that “the” not “he”.
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