Below is a preliminary Mackerras pendulum/table based on current results. The first thing to note is that the Liberals seem to be enjoying one-way traffic in late counting. They have taken the lead in Dickson, Swan and Bowman, appear home-and-hosed in La Trobe and are strongly placed in Macarthur. An 862 vote lead in McEwen would also normally be a basis on which to claim victory, but there are reports of “the discovery of about 3000 votes wrongly sent to neighbouring Scullin” which don’t seem to have been factored in yet. Only in Herbert has late counting actively improved Labor’s position. They are also keeping their noses in front in Solomon, although the imminent count of electronically lodged military votes might narrow the gap. If these trends continue Labor will end up with a relatively disappointing haul of 84 seats, against 64 for the Coalition and two independents. In that case it would take a loss of only nine seats at the next election for Labor to lose its majority, which would occur on a uniform swing of just 1.7 per cent. Bennelong again emerges as the litmus test seat: Labor can take comfort in the likelihood that it will swing heavily to them in John Howard’s absence. The next seat up the pendulum is Petrie in northern Brisbane, where Labor currently leads by 2.3 per cent.
Labor supporters might assume that federal politics will now follow the precedent established time and again at state level, where Labor enjoyed landslide re-election wins after establishing themselves in power. However, the historical record at the federal level offers the unhappy precedent of first-term swings against every post-war government (though only in 1998 was it greater than 1.7 per cent). I have a high enough opinion of Malcolm Turnbull to imagine he can steer the party clear of many of the obstacles that have faced it at state level, should the party be sensible enough to make him leader. Whoever takes the mantle, they will face the severe difficulty of a party room dominated by members from Western Australia, whose sensitivity to the national mood is indicated by today’s front page headline in The West Australian: “WA Libs demand party stands by WorkChoices”.
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26.5 Batman 25.4 Grayndler 24.1 Throsby 23.6 Melbourne 23.3 Wills 22.0 Gellibrand 21.2 Scullin 21.0 Chifley 21.0 Gorton 21.0 Watson 20.0 Port Adelaide 20.0 Sydney |
New England 24.6 (IND vs NAT) Mallee 21.6 |
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19.5 Calwell 19.2 Blaxland 18.9 Fowler 18.5 Cunningham 17.0 Reid 16.4 Hunter 15.9 Newcastle 15.8 Lalor 15.6 Denison 15.6 Fraser 15.3 Maribyrnong 15.3 Werriwa 15.1 Shortland |
Murray 18.3 O’Connor 16.6 Kennedy 15.9 (IND vs ALP) Riverina 15.7 |
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14.9 Oxley 13.9 Prospect 13.7 Hotham 13.6 Kingsford Smith 13.5 Capricornia 13.3 Charlton 13.1 Lingiari 12.5 Barton 12.5 Griffith 12.3 Holt 12.0 Rankin 11.8 Canberra 11.2 Banks |
Moncrieff 14.4 Curtin 14.3 Bradfield 13.6 Maranoa 13.0 Mackellar 12.6 Parkes 12.4 Mitchell 11.4 Calare 11.3 Farrer 11.3 Fadden 10.4 |
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9.5 Corio 9.5 Fremantle 9.5 Richmond 9.4 Perth 9.2 Jagajaga |
Warringah 9.5 Moore 9.3 Barker 9.1 Pearce 9.1 Indi 9.0 |
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8.7 Bruce 8.6 Ballarat 8.6 Lilley 8.6 Lyons 8.5 Adelaide 8.0 Melbourne Ports |
Kooyong 8.9 Tangney 8.8 Berowra 8.7 McPherson 8.7 Lyne 8.4 Wide Bay 8.3 Groom 8.1 |
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7.9 Isaacs 7.8 Makin 7.5 Chisholm 7.4 Lowe 7.4 Macquarie 7.2 Parramatta 7.1 Lindsay 7.0 Brisbane |
Flinders 7.8 Wannon 7.3 Cook 7.1 |
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6.9 Wakefield 6.1 Brand 6.0 Bendigo |
Higgins 6.8 Mayo 6.8 Casey 6.1 |
| 5.1 Hindmarsh |
Forrest 5.8 Gippsland 5.7 Menzies 5.7 Goldstein 5.6 Canning 5.4 North Sydney 5.2 Aston 5.1 |
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4.9 Blair 4.8 Bonner 4.8 Moreton 4.7 Leichhardt 4.6 Kingston 4.5 Franklin 4.1 Dobell 4.1 Eden-Monaro |
McMillan 4.9 Greenway 4.6 |
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3.7 Longman 3.5 Dawson 3.1 Forde |
Grey 3.9 Ryan 3.8 Wentworth 3.7 Dunkley 3.5 Gilmore 3.4 Hume 3.4 |
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2.6 Flynn 2.4 Page 2.3 Petrie |
Boothby 2.9 Fairfax 2.6 Fisher 2.6 |
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1.7 Bennelong 1.7 Deakin 1.5 Braddon 1.4 Hasluck |
Hughes 1.8 Kalgoorlie 1.6 Cowan 1.4 Hinkler 1.2 Paterson 1.2 Stirling 1.1 Cowper 1.0 Sturt 1.0 |
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0.9 Bass 0.9 Corangamite 0.8 Solomon 0.5 Robertson 0.4 Herbert |
La Trobe 0.5 McEwen 0.5 Macarthur 0.4 Bowman 0.02 Swan 0.02 Dickson 0.01 |
720 Comments
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Gary Bruce WC was only in for 2 years, Labor’s High interest rates were around for 13 years…oh and if he does do that we’ll show him complaining about the Libs doing the mother of all scare campaigns so then Rudd = hypocrite.
Glen, it’s true that Labor had to unite its various factions in order to win and this required many compromises. But I think the Liberal Party will find it much harder to do this. The problem with those coming from the religious Right, such as Abbott, Hawke, and many others, is that their beliefs, especially on the social front, are inflexible.
I think the Liberal Party is going to find it very tough to form a neat consensus of the kind that Labor did prior to the recent election. There will be an ongoing tension between trying to look and sound publicly appealing (aka Turnbull) versus sticking to core beliefs and therefore policy inclinations. This spells a great deal of future friction.
Rudd will pick up on this, and although I don’t expect him to employ wedge politics anywhere near to the extent that Howard did, it will all too easy to wedge the Liberals and create disunity. In fact, it could just happen inadvertently.
I expect the Howard years will be a past memory by the time the next election is called. So, predictions on the validity of their current campaign projected into the next campaign are pretty pointless given that new issues will no doubt have arisen by then. I would expect it will stay a close election given the statistical improbability of a wide margin federally on TPP terms. No prediction as to the winner although I beleive it will take a full 3 years for Labor to implement its platform promises (at least!)
William,
I’m not really sure if I fully agree with this. If you look at the specifics of the elections in question it looks a bit different.
In 1975 Fraser’s TPP was 55.7%. That’s a huge number and unsustainable for too long. So 1977 was bound to go down no matter what.
In 1984 Hawke called an early election which peeved off a lot of people and as I remember it, it was a terrible campaign. In the debate between between Hawke and Peacock, Bob appeared disinterested and tired. He also made the mistake of allowing a long campaign.
In 1998 Howard was fighting for the GST so it really wasn’t a normal election. Without the GST around his neck Howard may very well have done better.
I’m not saying Rudd will increase his vote, just that you need to look at the details to see if he has a chance or not.
Yes Glen but wait until Rudd releases the data about WC that Shrek wouldn’t.
Dream on all of you who think the next opposition leader (whomever he or she is) will win the next election or ever become PM for that matter. One thing this blog has taught me is that history is a powerful predictor. I can’t recall an opposition leader winning who was appointed after an electoral defeat federally.
If Turnbull is the best the Tories have they shouldn’t waste him now. I would argue that Turnbull will struggle, I already love his me tooism to rudd’s Labor with W/choices, sorry, Kyoto. why would an elctorate want to elect Rudd lite!!!
god its good to laugh at the hopeless joke that is the Tories, federally shambolic then as I live in Qld the local crowd are dead set comedy hour!
MelbCity I’m pleased to note that I predicted all along that the minor party vote would drop and that the Senate split would be three-three everywhere except Tas and probably WA. That prediction was made before Xenophon jumped in the race, electing himself and a Green with his surplus, so I am claiming I was broadly correct. I agree that di Natale is not likely to get up. I haven’t heard anything recently about Tucker’s prospects in ACT as the BTL vote comes in. Any opinions?
Also, any news on Tuckey and O’Connor? Are the Greens preferences going to the Nats?
Then he’ll have to release how many people lost their jobs because Rudd brought back unfair dismissals.
All this talk about wasting leaders is bull butter.
The Libs got bitch slapped on Saturday, we need a good leader and a fresh one who’s not tainted by the Howard years in anyway.
If we wait until 2010 before we put in Malcolm, he’ll be 56 by the time he’s leader and by 2013 he’ll be 59 almost 60, he’ll be too old by then. That’s why we need Turnbull and Bishop for 2010 and 2013 to give us a shot if we don’t we’ll be out for a long time to come.
Of course he won’t Glen, we all know about selective release of data and the spinning of said data by now.
Don’t be surprised if they come up with a new and more accurate figure for unemployment too.
Its four days after the 2007 election bit early for 2010 predictions.
Only 2 things are certain:
1) The state of the economy will be a factor ( and who knows what that will be in 2010)
2) And; The decisions or decisions not taken by the Government in the next 12-18 months
will be decisive. ie governments lose elections so to a large degree what the Turnbully does will not matter its what the government does that matters.
I would not be surprised if KR governs from the centre with a view to a thumping win in 2010.
Ave it 07,
Had the feared but unlikely Japanese invasion of Australia occurred, it would certainly have taken them a lot longer then two days to occupy the country. In fact, they probably would never have been able to do it. In any case, the first Japanese defeat in the Second World War was at the hands of Australian troops in New Guinea; and the first German defeat was partly at the hands of Australian troops in North Africa. Then we can look at the First World War and the significant contribution to warfare by the Australian Lieutenant General (later General) John Monash, who successfully integrated infantry with armour to push back the German lines.
You have a government elected with not much more than 30 per cent of the vote because of your first past the post system. Preferential voting is much more democratic, as is having polling day at the weekend, as is compulsory voting, as is an elected Upper House, particularly one elected by STV, the system now applied in Scotland and Northern Ireland, as is federalism (though the UK is slowly moving in that direction).
Wow Dave Tollner is now just 427 votes behind in Solomon with 19% still to count, he could scrape in by a whisker, looks like the postals are favouring him…
I think that if the Libs want Turnbull he’ll have to go in now. He doesn’t seem the type to hang about for 6 years on the opposition benches before having a crack. Libs will have to ask whether they want Turnbull for 2010 or not at all.
Solomon is now in the doubtful category with Labor now on 50.47 2PP. Postal votes running Tollner’s way 59:41.
Glen @ 258, Turnbull if elected now won’t last after a 2010 defeat and it will be a defeat especailly if Turnbull’s strategy is Rudd’s me tooism (the Tories are too sheel shocked to do anything else). Labor has the strategic high ground now by virtue of office, look how poorly Beasley went trying to ape Howard early on.
Exactly Edward St John, I think the Liberal Party will really need to get used to being virtually irrelevant, not being able to draw on the resources of departments for policy formation and receiving a lot less attention from the media.
After, perhaps an initial surge of interest by any new leadership it’ll be all hard slog from there. It’s possible they could win, but I think parties often underestimate how much harder it is in Opposition.
Solomon is just updated – Tickner has picked up 0.5% swing and the seat is now in the AEC’s official “close seat” category
Tollner is coming in fast from behind yeeeehaaaa (redneck voice).
The NSW hard-right Libs wont give up their position without a bloody fight; Bishop is trying to grandstand for the sake of show in WA and, the rest are trying to accept reality and build some credibility.
Don’t under estimate how insideous the NSW right are, some would rather stay out of power than give up their control. There is a whole lot of bitching to look forward to.
Hopefully the Labor party factions are smart enough to keep their problems behind the scenes.
The easiest way to make money in Australia over the last 11 years has been to borrow at half the Australian rate form OS, and lend it to Australians at blown out interest rates. If you think Australia had had low interest rates you’ve been whacking your head againt a wall.
Kina just how many of the so called ‘NSW Right’ have seats in Parliament after the 2007 election???
Queensland, Victoria, SA and WA + NT (should Tollner hang on) will cast ballots too i hardly think the socalled NSW Right will have much influence after the leadership ballot.
Bishop will get in as deputy, im not disappointed a Victorian wont be in a leadership position we’ve not got top class talent as in other states.
ESJ. Me thinks your on to something!!
I love it when Tories hold out for false hope. yes the postals have favoured you but the absent votes will not be as good as they are cast on polling day and take full account for the whole campaign (Kellygate in Lindsay for instance). Absents are often cast in metro areas in different seats by workers who this time will be voting against W/choices.
Yeah, look how lucky we are in SA with Chris Pyne and Andrew Southcott.
Bishop, Pyne or Robb. Mmm, the phrase “embarrassment of riches” springs to mind.
The skanky ho in the Oz (now to be known as the National Apologist or The N/A) on one of Howards legacies:
“Western values and multiculturalism could be discussed among rational people of differing opinions.”
Much like Cronulla in 2005? I’m sure at certain points during any given day all those involved are capable of being rational.
Kina @ 269 -
The housecleaning of the Liberal party begins in NSW, and that’s one reason why I reckon Malcolm will get the top job. It’s now fairly conclusive from the tracking polls that the Jackie Kelly stunt in the last week of the election cost the Government that little extra support which would have made this election almost too close to call. This means that the web Libs now have a target, and a reason to go in and razor out all of the Right Libs – with prejudice.
If they can do that – with Barry O’Farrell’s generous help, of course, they might just win the next NSW State election – and keep their campaign together for the next Federal election, whenever that might be.
Boll u attack our talent but if hypothetically Rudd lost and he resigned and then Julia Gillard said she didnt want to be Opposition leader who would Labor have, Swan LOL?
The SA Liberals now consist of the lame duck Downer, the oleaginous Pyne, two useless backbenchers (Southcott and Secker) and one newbie (Ramsey). In the Senate they have Minchin, who is nasty but at least competent, and three newbies. Minhcin might now be tempted to neck Secker and move downstairs.
ESJ 260
Actually I agree with almost every word. For both economic and political reasons, KR would be prudent to just deliver his major promises (Kyoto, Education, Workchoices) and budget as though a recession may be coming. If it doesn’t, he’s been conservative as promised. If it does, he can blame the Libs previous over spending.
Glen,
Tony Burke.
Adam, I’ve always thought there would be a possibility that Downer could step aside for Minchin. As horrible as he is he’s a smooth political operator and I think he’d be a far better choice than Turnbull (politically).
Hmm. Abbott just pulled out.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/abbott-pulls-out/2007/11/28/1196036951844.html
LOL that’s one person but we have 3 potential candidates for the leadership and three for deputy and yet the Laborites say we are without any talent HA!
Nick will jump at the opportunity for Mayo LTEP and Adam and after 1.5 years or so Downer will be gone. Nick doesnt need to neck Secker he just has to wait for Alexander.
283
Marko – AHAHAHAHAH so much for the theories of the NSW Right having any power lol!
Abbott was a dingbat to think he could be our leader what a fool!
283 – oh no! Where is his sense of comedy? Warms the crowd up with his ‘people skills’, then this? What a tease.
Too bad Pancho your ‘dream’ team of Abbott and Robb wont be so, depends if Abbotts supporters back Nelson now?
Which begs the question, why didn’t they do this behind closed doors?
Is Abbott doing the rhythm method? Sorry, but ‘Abbott just pulled out’ needed a Catholic joke.
Very Mal Meninga of you Tony.
Glen, after 11 or so years in government you would expect some cream to have risen to the top.
Will – call of the day, call of the day mate!
285 – Glen
It’s worse. the NSW Uglies have no power, but they stack the branches. so they’ve effectively hamstrung the party.
Glen: Looks like Turnbull is getting up. If he does, the Libs may as well be the ALP, as Turnbull is advocating all their policies.
Good riddance to Howard conservatism.
Will – Some jokes write themselves. Anything I added (and I considered it) would have been gilding the lily.
Pancho, probably because Turnbull came out publicly on Sunday, so they all had to do it. Also by coming out they are deflecting some of the coverage on Mr Rudd.
When was the last time the ALP leader was more (socially) conservative than the Liberal leader?
If it’s Rudd vs Turnbull it’s a close call.
Asanque, more to the point Rudd has made the ALP into the Liberal Party.
On Abbott pulling out: Very disappointing. This means that the Liberal Party leadership contest will be between two moderates, Turnbull and Nelson. After more than 12 years of Howard, the Liberal Party will no longer have truly Conservative leadership. Instead, we have got Labor lite!
A sad day for the nation. Bah, humbug!
Glen – Does that mean you’re joining the ALP now?
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