Below is a preliminary Mackerras pendulum/table based on current results. The first thing to note is that the Liberals seem to be enjoying one-way traffic in late counting. They have taken the lead in Dickson, Swan and Bowman, appear home-and-hosed in La Trobe and are strongly placed in Macarthur. An 862 vote lead in McEwen would also normally be a basis on which to claim victory, but there are reports of “the discovery of about 3000 votes wrongly sent to neighbouring Scullin” which don’t seem to have been factored in yet. Only in Herbert has late counting actively improved Labor’s position. They are also keeping their noses in front in Solomon, although the imminent count of electronically lodged military votes might narrow the gap. If these trends continue Labor will end up with a relatively disappointing haul of 84 seats, against 64 for the Coalition and two independents. In that case it would take a loss of only nine seats at the next election for Labor to lose its majority, which would occur on a uniform swing of just 1.7 per cent. Bennelong again emerges as the litmus test seat: Labor can take comfort in the likelihood that it will swing heavily to them in John Howard’s absence. The next seat up the pendulum is Petrie in northern Brisbane, where Labor currently leads by 2.3 per cent.
Labor supporters might assume that federal politics will now follow the precedent established time and again at state level, where Labor enjoyed landslide re-election wins after establishing themselves in power. However, the historical record at the federal level offers the unhappy precedent of first-term swings against every post-war government (though only in 1998 was it greater than 1.7 per cent). I have a high enough opinion of Malcolm Turnbull to imagine he can steer the party clear of many of the obstacles that have faced it at state level, should the party be sensible enough to make him leader. Whoever takes the mantle, they will face the severe difficulty of a party room dominated by members from Western Australia, whose sensitivity to the national mood is indicated by today’s front page headline in The West Australian: “WA Libs demand party stands by WorkChoices”.
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26.5 Batman 25.4 Grayndler 24.1 Throsby 23.6 Melbourne 23.3 Wills 22.0 Gellibrand 21.2 Scullin 21.0 Chifley 21.0 Gorton 21.0 Watson 20.0 Port Adelaide 20.0 Sydney |
New England 24.6 (IND vs NAT) Mallee 21.6 |
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19.5 Calwell 19.2 Blaxland 18.9 Fowler 18.5 Cunningham 17.0 Reid 16.4 Hunter 15.9 Newcastle 15.8 Lalor 15.6 Denison 15.6 Fraser 15.3 Maribyrnong 15.3 Werriwa 15.1 Shortland |
Murray 18.3 O’Connor 16.6 Kennedy 15.9 (IND vs ALP) Riverina 15.7 |
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14.9 Oxley 13.9 Prospect 13.7 Hotham 13.6 Kingsford Smith 13.5 Capricornia 13.3 Charlton 13.1 Lingiari 12.5 Barton 12.5 Griffith 12.3 Holt 12.0 Rankin 11.8 Canberra 11.2 Banks |
Moncrieff 14.4 Curtin 14.3 Bradfield 13.6 Maranoa 13.0 Mackellar 12.6 Parkes 12.4 Mitchell 11.4 Calare 11.3 Farrer 11.3 Fadden 10.4 |
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9.5 Corio 9.5 Fremantle 9.5 Richmond 9.4 Perth 9.2 Jagajaga |
Warringah 9.5 Moore 9.3 Barker 9.1 Pearce 9.1 Indi 9.0 |
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8.7 Bruce 8.6 Ballarat 8.6 Lilley 8.6 Lyons 8.5 Adelaide 8.0 Melbourne Ports |
Kooyong 8.9 Tangney 8.8 Berowra 8.7 McPherson 8.7 Lyne 8.4 Wide Bay 8.3 Groom 8.1 |
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7.9 Isaacs 7.8 Makin 7.5 Chisholm 7.4 Lowe 7.4 Macquarie 7.2 Parramatta 7.1 Lindsay 7.0 Brisbane |
Flinders 7.8 Wannon 7.3 Cook 7.1 |
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6.9 Wakefield 6.1 Brand 6.0 Bendigo |
Higgins 6.8 Mayo 6.8 Casey 6.1 |
| 5.1 Hindmarsh |
Forrest 5.8 Gippsland 5.7 Menzies 5.7 Goldstein 5.6 Canning 5.4 North Sydney 5.2 Aston 5.1 |
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4.9 Blair 4.8 Bonner 4.8 Moreton 4.7 Leichhardt 4.6 Kingston 4.5 Franklin 4.1 Dobell 4.1 Eden-Monaro |
McMillan 4.9 Greenway 4.6 |
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3.7 Longman 3.5 Dawson 3.1 Forde |
Grey 3.9 Ryan 3.8 Wentworth 3.7 Dunkley 3.5 Gilmore 3.4 Hume 3.4 |
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2.6 Flynn 2.4 Page 2.3 Petrie |
Boothby 2.9 Fairfax 2.6 Fisher 2.6 |
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1.7 Bennelong 1.7 Deakin 1.5 Braddon 1.4 Hasluck |
Hughes 1.8 Kalgoorlie 1.6 Cowan 1.4 Hinkler 1.2 Paterson 1.2 Stirling 1.1 Cowper 1.0 Sturt 1.0 |
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0.9 Bass 0.9 Corangamite 0.8 Solomon 0.5 Robertson 0.4 Herbert |
La Trobe 0.5 McEwen 0.5 Macarthur 0.4 Bowman 0.02 Swan 0.02 Dickson 0.01 |
720 Comments
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“im not disappointed a Victorian wont be in a leadership position”
But Glenister the Deputy PM is from Vic albeit via SA.
Flynn now too close on AEC but ALP still looks most likely. Looking at the breakdown of declaration numbers issued I reckon that the ALP is looking a chance in Bowman, Robertson and Swan, with Dickson going either way within a bees d@@k.
Alright! Let’s have a race to the left (while remaining economically conservative of course).
If it is Turnbull and Rudd, what will the so-called culture warriors spend their time doing?
Yes, the ALP really need to do something about their postals for the next election. They’re getting absolutely killed on them. 70% to the Nats in Flynn? Ouch.
“Nostradamus Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 4:12 pm
Denial – is that all you leftards can manage?”
Marko, id be more likely to if Abbott was our leader anyway im centre-right.
Haha Al but i meant the Liberal leadership sorry for the confusion.
Don’t worry Nostro if we get in we’ll just change it all like Labor
Actually if Julie Bishop gets the deputy’s job that will mean we will have female deputies from both liberal and labor who were educated in South Australia. (ie Bishop SA-WA and Gillard SA-VIC).
Pancho @ 302 –
Writing bitchy letters to Quadrant.
2% gain on 1 day in Flynn Is Flynn over?
earlier today we were saying Flynn was the “lose government” seat for Rudd.
Of course Marko. Under the stewardship of that intellectual genius Keith Windschuttle now I believe?
Well we’re doing pretty good on postals – the question is, is it well enough to turn the election around? With about 15% of the vote left to count, we may well be able to.
Hussar for Postals and Absentee votes Hussar!!!
The Tories could pick up a further 8 seats wowsa! But that is best case Scenario.
Why are the AEC so slack in Robertson, they’ve been on 79% counted for 2 days now WTF?
That’s pretty good Nostrils.
My #310 post was serious!
Glen the word you want is “huzzah”. A hussar was a kind of cavalry soldier.
yeah I think it’s a definate possibility the Nats could win Flynn. If the rest of the postals break in the same way they should be about 509 votes in front, and I wouldn’t bet on the absentees breaking well for Labor.
Definite seat count down to 80 seats for the ALP.
Glen: If the ALP are the Liberals, then why did you vote for Howard?
Because Howard made the Liberals into the neoconservative party.
Yes but that’s what i meant, our MPs are like hussars galloping towards a possible victory!
Glenn Churchill for Nats Leader!
Because the Liberals are the original centre-right party, why vote for a wannabe Party?
Galloping towards Sitting Bull
Howard Hater,
Only 739 votes in Robertson, lets hope a lot of those conservative Central Coast retirees did their civic duty and filled out their postal vote forms.
Antony has ALP seats down to 79 with a predicted 85.
Wow how many marginals will there be for 2010, so many marginals so much pork!
which no doubt will get loving attention from the government Glen.
In about a week, Howard will return triumphantly to Canberra after stealing the election on postals!
I am in a marginal, I want 3 day weekends and a themepark in my electorate
Good luck with that Nostradamus.
Leave the conservative ‘wanking contest’ for the parliamentary Liberal Party boys!
Abbott has announced he’s out of the race
More like………….in about a week, Howard will return triumphantly to Canberra and go “postal”
Nostradamus …. you are like ….. Nostradamus ….. raving lunitics who occassionaly gets 3 words correct in a row
If this landslide gets much smaller it will have headlines “Ruddslide: Labor claims minority government”
#298
Not to worry, Nostradamus. BTW it’s good to see you’re back.
You should be happy that the Lefties / “moderates” are going to get the leadership at this stage. They’ll probably get burned next election and a rightwinger will be there to pick up the pieces. Abbott (or even Minchin) may be back.
#289
I wonder how tolerant others on this blog would be if I made a “Moslem joke”?
Hey if we can make catholic jokes we can make Islamic jokes, its a free country for god’s sake!
A-C, as an aside to a tangent, I think ‘muslim’ is the accepted spelling these days. I haven’t seen ‘moslem’ for about a decade or so.
Spelling Moslem “Muslim” is yet another product of political correctness, it is like the Chinese forcing us to spell Peking “Beijing” and Canton “Guangzhou”. They certainly don’t call Moscow “Moskva”. Double standards and hypocrisy galore!
Ruddslide: 2 days after swearing in his govenment, Rudd found himself sliding out of the lodge
LTEP,
In Flynn, a lot of the postals will be farmers on relatively remote properties. Not many votes for Labor, there I suspect.
You have to feel sorry for the poor voters in Robertson. There they were faced with the choice of Useless Jim and the Loathsome ‘linda.
I don’t think it’s political, just listening to the pronunciation that people themselves use and trying to adapt it as best we can in English. General pronunciation, as far as I can tell, is ‘muss-lim’.
Btw, It doesn’t bother me at all if you say or write moslem, you just seem silly.
Nostradamus sees “political Ccorrectness” everywhere. Tory conspiracy mindset.
298 – Maybe you could start voting for the Citizens Electoral Council candidates?
You may enjoy reading some of their esteemed publications like – “Children of Satan III – The Sexual congress for Cultural Fascism”
PS Im not joking – thats really the name of a current pamphlet!
Extreme enough for you?
http://www.cecaust.com.au/main.asp?sub=pubs&id=publications.htm
ESJ – have you just got down to the library to use the public terminals. That’s old news about Robertson – “Updated: 27/11/2007 8:36:18 PM”
At our Booth in Chisholm, we had at least 10 informal votes where they’d voted for Labor but had not put a number in the box for the CEC, i wasn’t complaining lol
ESJ – by the way I agree with you… Robertson will stay with the Liberals. Which will be good since it will mean that we will have seen the last of La Neal and ALP might be minded o put up a half way decent candidate the next time around.
Glenister – one useful electoral reform could be that so long as the first two preferences are clear then the ballot should be counted as formal.
Glen – so long as all the other boxes were numbered that’s a valid vote for the ALP!!!
Actually no RA all the boxes need to be filled or it is invalid/informal.
The ALP scrutineers were pissed off about that lol.
Unless it’s different state by state that’s not true.
If all bar one are numbered the vote is formal in NSW.
Albert Ross or we could just ban the CEC from running in elections, either way?
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