Below is a preliminary Mackerras pendulum/table based on current results. The first thing to note is that the Liberals seem to be enjoying one-way traffic in late counting. They have taken the lead in Dickson, Swan and Bowman, appear home-and-hosed in La Trobe and are strongly placed in Macarthur. An 862 vote lead in McEwen would also normally be a basis on which to claim victory, but there are reports of “the discovery of about 3000 votes wrongly sent to neighbouring Scullin” which don’t seem to have been factored in yet. Only in Herbert has late counting actively improved Labor’s position. They are also keeping their noses in front in Solomon, although the imminent count of electronically lodged military votes might narrow the gap. If these trends continue Labor will end up with a relatively disappointing haul of 84 seats, against 64 for the Coalition and two independents. In that case it would take a loss of only nine seats at the next election for Labor to lose its majority, which would occur on a uniform swing of just 1.7 per cent. Bennelong again emerges as the litmus test seat: Labor can take comfort in the likelihood that it will swing heavily to them in John Howard’s absence. The next seat up the pendulum is Petrie in northern Brisbane, where Labor currently leads by 2.3 per cent.
Labor supporters might assume that federal politics will now follow the precedent established time and again at state level, where Labor enjoyed landslide re-election wins after establishing themselves in power. However, the historical record at the federal level offers the unhappy precedent of first-term swings against every post-war government (though only in 1998 was it greater than 1.7 per cent). I have a high enough opinion of Malcolm Turnbull to imagine he can steer the party clear of many of the obstacles that have faced it at state level, should the party be sensible enough to make him leader. Whoever takes the mantle, they will face the severe difficulty of a party room dominated by members from Western Australia, whose sensitivity to the national mood is indicated by today’s front page headline in The West Australian: “WA Libs demand party stands by WorkChoices”.
|
26.5 Batman 25.4 Grayndler 24.1 Throsby 23.6 Melbourne 23.3 Wills 22.0 Gellibrand 21.2 Scullin 21.0 Chifley 21.0 Gorton 21.0 Watson 20.0 Port Adelaide 20.0 Sydney |
New England 24.6 (IND vs NAT) Mallee 21.6 |
|
19.5 Calwell 19.2 Blaxland 18.9 Fowler 18.5 Cunningham 17.0 Reid 16.4 Hunter 15.9 Newcastle 15.8 Lalor 15.6 Denison 15.6 Fraser 15.3 Maribyrnong 15.3 Werriwa 15.1 Shortland |
Murray 18.3 O’Connor 16.6 Kennedy 15.9 (IND vs ALP) Riverina 15.7 |
|
14.9 Oxley 13.9 Prospect 13.7 Hotham 13.6 Kingsford Smith 13.5 Capricornia 13.3 Charlton 13.1 Lingiari 12.5 Barton 12.5 Griffith 12.3 Holt 12.0 Rankin 11.8 Canberra 11.2 Banks |
Moncrieff 14.4 Curtin 14.3 Bradfield 13.6 Maranoa 13.0 Mackellar 12.6 Parkes 12.4 Mitchell 11.4 Calare 11.3 Farrer 11.3 Fadden 10.4 |
|
9.5 Corio 9.5 Fremantle 9.5 Richmond 9.4 Perth 9.2 Jagajaga |
Warringah 9.5 Moore 9.3 Barker 9.1 Pearce 9.1 Indi 9.0 |
|
8.7 Bruce 8.6 Ballarat 8.6 Lilley 8.6 Lyons 8.5 Adelaide 8.0 Melbourne Ports |
Kooyong 8.9 Tangney 8.8 Berowra 8.7 McPherson 8.7 Lyne 8.4 Wide Bay 8.3 Groom 8.1 |
|
7.9 Isaacs 7.8 Makin 7.5 Chisholm 7.4 Lowe 7.4 Macquarie 7.2 Parramatta 7.1 Lindsay 7.0 Brisbane |
Flinders 7.8 Wannon 7.3 Cook 7.1 |
|
6.9 Wakefield 6.1 Brand 6.0 Bendigo |
Higgins 6.8 Mayo 6.8 Casey 6.1 |
| 5.1 Hindmarsh |
Forrest 5.8 Gippsland 5.7 Menzies 5.7 Goldstein 5.6 Canning 5.4 North Sydney 5.2 Aston 5.1 |
|
4.9 Blair 4.8 Bonner 4.8 Moreton 4.7 Leichhardt 4.6 Kingston 4.5 Franklin 4.1 Dobell 4.1 Eden-Monaro |
McMillan 4.9 Greenway 4.6 |
|
3.7 Longman 3.5 Dawson 3.1 Forde |
Grey 3.9 Ryan 3.8 Wentworth 3.7 Dunkley 3.5 Gilmore 3.4 Hume 3.4 |
|
2.6 Flynn 2.4 Page 2.3 Petrie |
Boothby 2.9 Fairfax 2.6 Fisher 2.6 |
|
1.7 Bennelong 1.7 Deakin 1.5 Braddon 1.4 Hasluck |
Hughes 1.8 Kalgoorlie 1.6 Cowan 1.4 Hinkler 1.2 Paterson 1.2 Stirling 1.1 Cowper 1.0 Sturt 1.0 |
|
0.9 Bass 0.9 Corangamite 0.8 Solomon 0.5 Robertson 0.4 Herbert |
La Trobe 0.5 McEwen 0.5 Macarthur 0.4 Bowman 0.02 Swan 0.02 Dickson 0.01 |
720 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 6 7 [8] 9 10 … 15 » Show All
Nostrodamus: you are living in fairy land if you think the Liberals can still win the election. Oh, I forgot, you are a prized wanker!
Labor back ahead in Bowman, by 26 votes.
The AEC agrees with me
Note that if a House of Representatives ballot paper has all squares numbered but one then it is assumed that the unmarked square constitutes the last preference and the ballot paper will be deemed formal.
Glen: the sad truth is most informal votes are usually attempted Labor ones.
Some people just can’t handle numbering every square on a ballot paper.
Of the 9 in doubt seats I wouldn’t count of any of them being won by Labor unless someone’s seeing something I’m not.
The AEC set out that ballots require all boxes to be numbers as shown on the ballot paper if the ballot paper has not been properly filled out the vote in informal.
Does anyone else know why Turnbull’s second name is Bligh? I do it relates to the rum rebellion.
Turnbull a self man man, bollocks. He is landed gentry.
There would still be overseas votes to come in, which would Labor, I assume, particularly those from the UK.
LETP the only thing going for the Tories is they are doing well on postals but this doesnt assure victory in any of these seats, still it could be worse.
I can imagine Glen as the ruthless Liberal scrutineer, throwing away all those Labor votes LOL
From the AEC website:
Note that if a House of Representatives ballot paper has all squares numbered but one then it is assumed that the unmarked square constitutes the last preference and the ballot paper will be deemed formal.
The AEC agrees with me
It’s a little bit down the page, about 3/4, and below the initial screen on most monitiors but it’s there.
All bar one is formal.
Oh well, a majority of 10 is OK, about what I predicted!
From Rates Analysts link:
“Note that if a House of Representatives ballot paper has all squares numbered but one then it is assumed that the unmarked square constitutes the last preference and the ballot paper will be deemed formal.”
He is a descendent of Governor Bligh on his mother’s side. He is thus a distant cousin of Qld Premier Anna Bligh.
Postal votes running at 70/30 to the Nats in Flynn and 80/20 in Maranoa and 80/20 to Bob Katter in Kennedy is beyond belief. If the Nats steal Flynn on postals their rorting of postal votes will be exposed once and for all.
I believe Turnbull is a decendent of Bligh.
Hence the name. It was in a book I read recently but it was on a 24 hour flight and my brain got gooey.
Yes, as the ALP seats tally drifts back towards 80, my prediction is becoming more accurate. Naturally I’d rather be wrong.
Well Adam tell that to the AEC RO who deemed those ballots informal. Meh either way im sleeping easy tonight
RA, how hard is it to put a number in for the CEC meh it doesnt matter anyway Chisholm is fairly safe for Labor atm.
Ruthless Liberal scrutineer ha, well i did get a vote for the Greens thrown out because they’d put a 7 in and we only had 6 candidates lol
Election after election, Labor loses these seats on postal votes! Sorry to say the Conservatives are much better at the caper! What could have been a decent majority for Rudd is being whittled away, all because of the inepitude of the ALP in some of these seats.
RA, obviously you were correct though from what i was told scrutineering that that was an informal vote, well im all the wiser now
I thought the general idea was that if the intention was clear the vote was counted. Therefore if it went 1 2 3 4 5 7 you’d count that vote as valid.
For eg, I got in my letterbox a postal vote application form from Ruddock, nothing from Labor: seems like this was typical in many places.
Glen if I’d been scrutineering in Ports as I usually do we might actually have met. Wot a scary thought. Good thing I was posted to a distant suburb (where we had an 11% swing – the Lib scrute left in disgust halfway through.)
Yes Howard Hater, I had the same thing and I live in Eden Monaro, a marginal seat.
But the bloke had missed a 2 in there as well that’s how the voter did a 7.
I know that 1 2 4 5 is invalid (no 3)
I know that 1 2 3 [ ] is valid (blanks are allowed)
Not sure about 1 2 3 5 though…. The intent is pretty clear, however.
Howard Hater
Overseas votes are 2 types
a. back packers tends to vote Labor, if they remember to go to an embassy to vote
b. business types working in London, HK and NY etc tends to vote the coalition
LTEP: just as well Mike Kelly is far enough ahead not for it to matter!
When I voted at Australia House in 2004 there were loads of suits voting.
Rates Analyst
I agree their intent is pretty clear …… they can’t count and need to go back to school
The Turnbull family was a backer of Governor Bligh. It support the first born male child has always had Bligh as a second name.
2 years till the next mutiny?
It will be very interesting to have a forensic examination of who the postal voters in Flynn are. The ALP resourced and ran a postal vote campaign in Flynn, the Nats have spent 30 years building a pool of phantoms. You know work for a year on a property out west you move on but your vote doesn’t. The AEC is illequipped to deal with this longstanding NPA rort.
In fact I think I may have received two applications in the mail from Nairn.
Ooops In support.
372
Adam – ha well i was in Chisholm where were you?
Where did you vote, i went to the Alfred i suppose you’re out St. Kilda way?
The Greens scrutineer kept having ago at us calling us environmental terrorists, we took a mobile phone video of the Labor and Greens HTV people at our booth as they were within the 6 meters and the Greens lady asked if we were going to send it to ASIO, hilarious stuff.
Nostradamus at 335
One of the traditional tenets of Western culture is civilised politeness. If people want to be described by one term rather than another, it is polite to accede.
This has nothing to do with political correctness.
Your point about the Chinese names is even more poorly informed. For example. the characters for Beijing have been exactly the same for over three or four millennia! “Beijing” is a lot closer to modern Chinese pronunciation than “Peking”, “Pekin”, or “Peiping”, all of which from time to time have been used in English.
Now I know why the Nationals refused to concede Flynn!
Albert Ross,
There could be lots of “reasons” the Robertson seat count hasnt been updated since 20.49 yesterday evening.
Generally,
What will we do once the undecideds are settled and the ministry and shadows are announced, I think it is at least 2 years until an election somewhere isnt it?
I wonder if it narrows anymore will the myth of this election be that it was Lindsay pamphlets wot won it?
LOL My prediction of 79 seats is starting to look very good!
William, do I get a prize?
Green HTV cards
I am just flabbergasted, how many trees did they killed to create those HTV, they better be using recycle paper
What a bunch of hypocrates
Glad to see the Group I “Anarchists” in the Vic Senate attracted a higher vote than either of the socialist groupings.
Actually ours were more environmentally friendly we gave them hell about it lol!
Yes dovif, they are recycled. I think that’s pretty obvious.
Given Given Labor’s some 700,000 vote lead, I doubt the Lindsay pamphlets had anything other than a negligible affect on the outcome.
That being said, Jackie Kelly is still a moron.
Democratic primary starts first week of January.
HAHAHAHHAH Tony Abbott pulls out of the leadership race, because he couldn’t guarantee he would make it to the party room on time.
Well A-C if Newspoll was correct and it was 52-48 in the middle of last week and momentum stopped and reversed by 1% it could have been significant not in itself but in stopping momentum?
Take 1% of the swing and the election could have been anybodys?
Having said that I think in hindsight it was Labor’s year – everything went wrong for JWH and “events” like the pamphlets tend to fit the narrative in retrospect. Much like the forged letters in 1996 – although I recall PJK did use them as an excuse for losing.
Yep the postals are going rather badly. No point denying that.
However, I am noticing a slowing in the -ve trend in certain seats.
Can someone authoritatively inform us what order the various vote types are counted in? Again, it does make sense that absent votes would be better for ALP than postals.
Or is it seat by seat? With no regular pattern?
And finally yes, clearly the ALP needs to GET ACT TOGETHER on postals!
True ShowsON,
But I think the US and the UK elections are foregone conclusions?
Substitute Brown for Howard in the UK and Hilary is on the way to a coronation (or restoration) depending on your view.
Although the first Tuesday in November every fourth year is such an unproductive day for me – watching the results come in.
Pages: « 1 … 6 7 [8] 9 10 … 15 » Show All