Below is a preliminary Mackerras pendulum/table based on current results. The first thing to note is that the Liberals seem to be enjoying one-way traffic in late counting. They have taken the lead in Dickson, Swan and Bowman, appear home-and-hosed in La Trobe and are strongly placed in Macarthur. An 862 vote lead in McEwen would also normally be a basis on which to claim victory, but there are reports of “the discovery of about 3000 votes wrongly sent to neighbouring Scullin” which don’t seem to have been factored in yet. Only in Herbert has late counting actively improved Labor’s position. They are also keeping their noses in front in Solomon, although the imminent count of electronically lodged military votes might narrow the gap. If these trends continue Labor will end up with a relatively disappointing haul of 84 seats, against 64 for the Coalition and two independents. In that case it would take a loss of only nine seats at the next election for Labor to lose its majority, which would occur on a uniform swing of just 1.7 per cent. Bennelong again emerges as the litmus test seat: Labor can take comfort in the likelihood that it will swing heavily to them in John Howard’s absence. The next seat up the pendulum is Petrie in northern Brisbane, where Labor currently leads by 2.3 per cent.
Labor supporters might assume that federal politics will now follow the precedent established time and again at state level, where Labor enjoyed landslide re-election wins after establishing themselves in power. However, the historical record at the federal level offers the unhappy precedent of first-term swings against every post-war government (though only in 1998 was it greater than 1.7 per cent). I have a high enough opinion of Malcolm Turnbull to imagine he can steer the party clear of many of the obstacles that have faced it at state level, should the party be sensible enough to make him leader. Whoever takes the mantle, they will face the severe difficulty of a party room dominated by members from Western Australia, whose sensitivity to the national mood is indicated by today’s front page headline in The West Australian: “WA Libs demand party stands by WorkChoices”.
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26.5 Batman 25.4 Grayndler 24.1 Throsby 23.6 Melbourne 23.3 Wills 22.0 Gellibrand 21.2 Scullin 21.0 Chifley 21.0 Gorton 21.0 Watson 20.0 Port Adelaide 20.0 Sydney |
New England 24.6 (IND vs NAT) Mallee 21.6 |
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19.5 Calwell 19.2 Blaxland 18.9 Fowler 18.5 Cunningham 17.0 Reid 16.4 Hunter 15.9 Newcastle 15.8 Lalor 15.6 Denison 15.6 Fraser 15.3 Maribyrnong 15.3 Werriwa 15.1 Shortland |
Murray 18.3 O’Connor 16.6 Kennedy 15.9 (IND vs ALP) Riverina 15.7 |
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14.9 Oxley 13.9 Prospect 13.7 Hotham 13.6 Kingsford Smith 13.5 Capricornia 13.3 Charlton 13.1 Lingiari 12.5 Barton 12.5 Griffith 12.3 Holt 12.0 Rankin 11.8 Canberra 11.2 Banks |
Moncrieff 14.4 Curtin 14.3 Bradfield 13.6 Maranoa 13.0 Mackellar 12.6 Parkes 12.4 Mitchell 11.4 Calare 11.3 Farrer 11.3 Fadden 10.4 |
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9.5 Corio 9.5 Fremantle 9.5 Richmond 9.4 Perth 9.2 Jagajaga |
Warringah 9.5 Moore 9.3 Barker 9.1 Pearce 9.1 Indi 9.0 |
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8.7 Bruce 8.6 Ballarat 8.6 Lilley 8.6 Lyons 8.5 Adelaide 8.0 Melbourne Ports |
Kooyong 8.9 Tangney 8.8 Berowra 8.7 McPherson 8.7 Lyne 8.4 Wide Bay 8.3 Groom 8.1 |
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7.9 Isaacs 7.8 Makin 7.5 Chisholm 7.4 Lowe 7.4 Macquarie 7.2 Parramatta 7.1 Lindsay 7.0 Brisbane |
Flinders 7.8 Wannon 7.3 Cook 7.1 |
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6.9 Wakefield 6.1 Brand 6.0 Bendigo |
Higgins 6.8 Mayo 6.8 Casey 6.1 |
| 5.1 Hindmarsh |
Forrest 5.8 Gippsland 5.7 Menzies 5.7 Goldstein 5.6 Canning 5.4 North Sydney 5.2 Aston 5.1 |
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4.9 Blair 4.8 Bonner 4.8 Moreton 4.7 Leichhardt 4.6 Kingston 4.5 Franklin 4.1 Dobell 4.1 Eden-Monaro |
McMillan 4.9 Greenway 4.6 |
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3.7 Longman 3.5 Dawson 3.1 Forde |
Grey 3.9 Ryan 3.8 Wentworth 3.7 Dunkley 3.5 Gilmore 3.4 Hume 3.4 |
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2.6 Flynn 2.4 Page 2.3 Petrie |
Boothby 2.9 Fairfax 2.6 Fisher 2.6 |
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1.7 Bennelong 1.7 Deakin 1.5 Braddon 1.4 Hasluck |
Hughes 1.8 Kalgoorlie 1.6 Cowan 1.4 Hinkler 1.2 Paterson 1.2 Stirling 1.1 Cowper 1.0 Sturt 1.0 |
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0.9 Bass 0.9 Corangamite 0.8 Solomon 0.5 Robertson 0.4 Herbert |
La Trobe 0.5 McEwen 0.5 Macarthur 0.4 Bowman 0.02 Swan 0.02 Dickson 0.01 |
720 Comments
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Are you a horse-racing fan ESJ?
The US elections are the Tuesday after the first Monday and so are, every so often, the second Tuesday of November.
That was un-called for. My apologies.
Discussing scrutineering invokes the logic part of my brain a little too much.
Turnbull will prevail tomorrow (prob unanimously).
All this (humourous) talk of Labor not gaining enough seats to form govt has opened up some possibilities for a surprised Prime Minister Turnbull.
What would he then do with Costello and Howard (if Howard retains Bennelong)?
The Ministries of Gutlessness (or Courage) and Deceit (or Truth) respectively could be created especially for these two outstanding candidates.
Lol Rates Analyst
Trent Lott annouced he is not re-contesting in Mighty Miss (so his seat goes up in 2010 I think?)
Suggests he thinks the Republicans are going to get a thumping Nov next year. It seems the wheel turns worldwide.
I’d like to imagine this site will at least split 3 ways instead of 2 for the US season, Obama supporters, Hillary supporters, Horrible Horrible Republican candidate supporters.
This late counting is getting a bit worrying, now only three seats in reserve with nearly 20% of vote to be counted. Only 800 vote margin on Corangamite, 100 in Bass, 1800 in Hasluck, 1900 in Braddon. I reckon nealry all of the present ‘close’ seats on the AEC list are going to the coalition.
Am i being too paranoid?
I don’t understand how the ABC can predict 85 seats for the ALP… which 6 doubtful seats do they predict the ALP will win out of the 9?
Election after election, Labor loses these seats on postal votes! Sorry to say the Conservatives are much better at the caper! What could have been a decent majority for Rudd is being whittled away, all because of the inepitude of the ALP in some of these seats.
You’re right. I rang Garrett’s office looking for one for my old man. It never arrived. I wonder how many times that happened?
I wouldnt be running the bath water and opening the veins just yet seajay.
seajay: No you aren’t paranoid. I said yesterday almost all the close seats will go coalition, and that’s what’s going to happen.
Well Seajay it looks like the ALP have lengthened their lead slightly in Robertson to 803 votes, after 81.57%.
Yes, they’ve taken Robertson out of the ‘close seats’ category again.
Yeah but they’ve put Solomon and Flynn back in the close seat category, ill trade that lol
BTW I don’t think its horrible to support Rudy Giuliani he’s a moderate Republican.
Roy Orbison: It’s nothing to do with Labor ineptitude. It’s demographic.
Most farmers, businessman, overseas holiday goers etc are conservative voters.
The Greens also benefit from the backpacker vote. Bob Brown amusingly said “bushwalker” vote on election night – but meant backpacker.
I’m defintiely barracking for Giuliani, since McCain seems to have no chance.
Flynn is lengthening again also now that pre-polls are being counted – seems the Postals were the anomoly there… 70% TPP Lib.
The Speaker, it is also to do with Labor ineptitude. I’ve heard a few stories about problems with Labor’s postal application campaigns and have heard a few people say they didn’t receive one in the mail.
And Romney is a Mormon.
Go RUDY!
Its just like over here, the Republicans know in the US if they don’t put a moderate in they’ve got no chance in 08 likewise we tories have to put a moderate in if we’re going to be electable atm.
The “close” reference in the AEC’s VTR is automatic when there is less that 1% in it at a given time. This isn’t discretionary.
Giuliani the crossdresser why not seeing as you have Chucklenuts there already
Oh, I didn’t mean any Republican candidate specifically, I think they are uniformly horrible. The Republican debates have been an awe inspiring crazyfest. Part of me wants a republican to win again just to see what transpires for next 4-8 years.
And I’m not too worried about these close seats, I’d traid all but for 78 of them if it meant that the greens got up in Vic, the excess seats aren’t much more than bragging rights if a majority can be formed.
Even so he’s still better than Bil i mean Hillary Clinton.
RW he did it for charity, can’t people do stuff for charity or a good cause and not get trashed for it.
Nico, there are some seats with less than 1% that aren’t listed in the ‘close seats’ category.
Let’s not get bogged down in this right now, but if you think that Giuliani is a moderate you haven’t been paying attention.
My preferred Republican would be Ron Paul. There is a lot of stuff he says that I don’t agree with, but he is constitutionally superb and bang on the money in foreign policy.
which seats LTEP?
Dangerous he’s a moderate compared to Thompson and Romney.
Ron Paul should be a Democrat.
Which ones LTEP?
Giuliani has had a lot of making up to the Christians in the US, after the few times he has done drag.
I also doubt he would do well outside of NY. I lived in the USA for 3 years (moved there just before 9/11), not so popular outside of NYC really. Though if he could win NY for the EC then that would definitely tip him over to win.
424 – god help this site if the RP nutjobs find it. And I won’t use his name in case in their random googling it helps them to find it.
poor Howard,
his Bennelong seat is lost out-right, not even a close seat
good riddance to Howard
The close seats cutoff is 0.5%, I think you’ll find.
Yes sorry, misread. .5 either way would be a gap of 1%
Matt D – a 0.5% lead = a 1% differential. That was what I meant. Apologies is unclear.
“if” unclear*
Mr Speaker,
It’s got everything to do with it when the paperwork doesn’t arrive and a vote is wasted. As this one was. Do you think this was the only place it happened?
Then again, hardly surprising as I am trying to deal with a lazy slob called Kristina Keneally in the equivalent State Government seat. You can see Iemma getting rolled a mile off with the galoots that the ALP employs in the back rooms.
How do they calculate their predictions on the abc site? Is it by subtracting the general swing from the old postal/prepoll/absent/provisional figures?
Ron Paul maybe liked by the voters, but the GOP don’t like him and have gone out of their way to make sure him and his supporters aren’t heard. Though the internet has ways of making people heard.
Re 405,
Erytnicam Says:
I get to vote postal vote for this, I am a dual citizen. I am voting Obama in the primary election but don’t think he will seriously get up across all 50 states. I will voter for whomever does get up in the general election, most likely Hillary at this point. My states primary election is 15 January so not too far away [Michigan]
Might add for those who aren’t clear on how the US elections work. We have primary and general elections so you vote 2 times over the course of the year. In most states, primaries are “closed”. That means in this instance you have to declare your party affiliation to get a ballot and you get that parties ballot. In a few states, the primaries are open but in those instances, while you don’t have to declare your party affiliation, you still only get one ballot. So for instance, in an open primary, if you are a Republican and you KNOW that your man is going to get up with the nomination from that state, you could do a Democratic vote in the primaries “under cover” and vote against the front runner if you wanted to make mayhem
Julie, isn’t there one weird state with a “wide-open” primary which give you two votes – one in each primary? Washington from memory.
Julie, do you know what percentage of the population votes in primaries as compared to the general election?
Oh no i used it for the love of GOD i hope they don’t.
“aimee
27 Nov 2007 03:56 PM
I love you ron paul! I work in a dental office, and everytime i seat a patient or see a patient i try to spark up a convo about u and educate these people. And i have your newsletter in the waiting room. And friday when i get paid. Im going to go buy car markers and write vote ron paul 2008 on the back of my car. I think everyone should do it. And i could be this web page on the bottom. I want to spread the word. I will be waving my sign on the first!”
From RP’s MySpace, WTF is with these people?
update from Bennelong: Howard 48.33% / McKew 51.67%
(80.61% vote counted)
Howard getting just over 50% in the new votes – would need 60% of them to win it. No postals counted yet, however.
That means McKew has extended her lead by about 100 votes since this morning.
Hey 438, whats your opinion on the Primaries moving ever earlier, and the importance of winning the first primary? Do you think it is wrong that one state can have an undue influence compared to other states?
I reckon the “Close Seats ” criteria ought to be widened. It currently lists seats that are within 50.5 – 49.5 but I believe should be seats within 51 – 49. This is especially so when there are still 20% of votes still to be counted.
As we have seen in Flynn postal votes can wipe 2% off in the twinkling of an eye.
439 Rates Analyst,
I have no idea, sorry. With 50 states and each having their own rules, I don’t know enough to answer your question.
440 Pancho,
As you know, the US doesn’t have compulsory voting. Therefore, the percentage is much lower in primaries compared to the general election. People rekcon “whats the point?”. A good turnout in a general election might be 55 – 60%. In a primary you are lucky if you can manage 15 to 20% I reckon but I have never seen any hard figures on this. I will try, if I can, to determine percentages voting in my state of Michigan and report back on those in late January.
Ron Paul is the most conservative candidate! For example,
But at the same time he is as anti-abortion as they come and doesn’t think there should be a role for the federal government in health or education (they should be state issues, according to him).
I like him because he is the only serious candidate aggressively challenging America’s addiction to ruling the world through superior military force and acting as an empire. No Democrat would dare to do that…
Flynn is lookin scary. ALP margin is down to ~600 votes and 70% of the postals favour the Coalition. Similar for Herbert. Lokks loke the ALP will finish up with 81 or 82 seats.
Tony Abbott has not ruled out challenging in the future for the leadership.
I smell a little bit of division.
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