Federal Coalition. Today’s Liberal leadership contest is of course being amply covered elsewhere. I will say only that the 6-to-1 odds on Brendan Nelson from SportingBet look remarkably attractive from what I’m hearing. Warren Truss is set to take the Nationals leadership unopposed following the withdrawal of Peter McGauran. No by-elections loom at this stage, but I suspect they will be happening sooner or later in Higgins, Mayo, Berowra and perhaps Lyne.
Queensland Liberals. The state Liberal Party has been plunged into a constitutional crisis by a four-all leadership deadlock between incumbent Bruce Flegg and challenger Tim Nicholls. Flegg and his three supporters voted down a leadership spill motion yesterday, prompting state president Warwick Parer to declare he must “do the honourable thing and stand down”. The two groups might end up holding separate party room meetings today, each claiming official status. Nicholls is associated with the Santo Santoro/Michael Caltabiano faction of the Queensland Liberal Party, and is supported in the party room by John-Paul Langbroek (Surfers Paradise), Jann Stuckey (Currumbin) and Steve Dickson (Kawana). Flegg represents the moderate “western suburbs” faction and is supported by Mark McArdle (Caloundra), Ray Stevens (Robina) and Glen Elmes (Noosa), at least for now: the Courier-Mail reports Flegg’s supporters are united by animus towards the Santoro faction, and would be willing to back a candidate other than Flegg to keep Nicholls out.
Western Australian Liberals. It had long been understood that the looming federal election was the only thing preventing a challenge against Liberal leader Paul Omodei, and the talk is that a spill will be on next week. On Tuesday the ABC reported that Omodei was about to be tapped on the shoulder and asked to make way for Vasse MP Troy Buswell. Omodei – a dangerous man to be around at times – today told the media any colleagues who did so would be “very lucky if they don’t get a good right hook, and they’ll be lucky to get out of the room standing up”. Like his Queensland counterpart Tim Nicholls, Buswell is a first-term MP. Meantime, former leader Colin Barnett has announced he will not seek re-election for his seat of Cottesloe at the state election due in February 2009. Barnett has told The West Australian he has thought better of retiring immediately, because it “wasn’t the right thing to do and a lot of people in my electorate want me to stay”. His enemies in the Liberal Party say he’ s only staying to block any move to recruit Julie Bishop to the state party leadership by having her take his seat at a by-election.
Northern Territory ALP. Clare Martin and her deputy Syd Stirling have both pulled up stumps and moved to the back bench. The Northern Territory News reports that leadership rival Paul Henderson delivered Martin a “gentle ultimatum” a few weeks ago. Martin accepted this without demur as she had lost her enthusiasm for the job following the federal government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities. Mutterings first emerged last November that Martin’s inaction in indigenous affairs had cost her the support of the most of the Aboriginal members of caucus, and that a challenge by Henderson would win the support of 10 out of 19 party room members. Martin and Stirling have both vowed to remain in parliament until the election due in mid-2009, so it does not appear we will be treated to by-elections in Fannie Bay and Nhulunbuy.
In late election counting news, Labor’s Jason Young is back in front of Andrew Laming in Bowman, if only by 21 votes. The pattern of voting in 2004 suggests Young has cleared his biggest hurdle now that pre-polls have been counted (mostly if not entirely), and should be able to keep his nose in front on remaining postal (where he has performed strongly so far), absent and provisional votes. In Herbert, Defence Force votes have slashed Labor’s lead from 528 to 36: the outlook appears better for Labor’s George Colbran now those are out of the way, but like Bowman it’s still close enough that anything could happen. Liberal member Peter Dutton’s lately acquired lead continues to widen in Dickson, and the Liberals are home and hosed in La Trobe and Macarthur. The only reason McEwen is not on the list is those votes we were told about which were wrongly sent to Scullin, on which I have heard nothing further. Defence Force votes have cut Labor candidate Damian Hale’s lead over CLP member Dave Tollner in Solomon from 718 votes to 427, but he should still get up unless there’s a surprise lurking in the remaining pre-polls. The trend in Swan contains to favour Liberal candidate Steve Irons, now 136 votes in front, although there will be very little in it either way. Anyone wishing to discuss these results is encouraged to use the dedicated threads linked to in the sidebar.
A couple of other seats worth noting. The Greens camp has been talking up a possible late-count boilover in O’Connor, where Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner could theoretically overtake Labor’s Dominic Rose and surf over Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey on preferences. At the moment Gardiner is some way behind Rose, 20.42 per cent to 18.37 per cent. It is argued that most of the 9.28 per cent vote that went to various minor candidates will go to Gardiner as preferences, although a good many went straight to Tuckey in 2004. The other question is how many of the 6.68 per cent who voted Greens followed the card and gave their second preferences to the Nationals. If the combined 15.96 per cent from minor parties delivers the Nationals 2.06 per cent more than Labor, Gardiner might be in business. In 2004 there was an 18.8 per cent minor party vote that split 7.8 per cent Labor, 5.7 per cent Nationals and 5.3 per cent, but the Greens were running split-ticket how-to-vote cards as opposed to their direct recommendation to the Nationals this time.
A late-count surprise has been a narrowing of Labor’s margin in Flynn, where postal votes have split over 70-30 in favour of the Nationals. This is because postal voting is a favoured method of voters in isolated rural areas, although the size of the gap is still a surprise. Whether or not the Nationals are still a show depends on whether there are more postals to come. Today’s Courier-Mail states that “postal votes were counted today”, which sounds like it means they were all counted, in which case the remaining 590-vote Labor lead should be enough. Pre-polls have in fact been running quite heavily in Labor’s favour, and absent votes are unlikely to buck the overall trend.
Corangamite is now on the AEC “close seats” list with pre-polls and postals having favoured the Liberals 57-43, cutting the Labor lead from 2217 to 767. However, there should be few if any remaining pre-polls and postals, and Labor did quite a lot better on the uncounted absent and provisional votes in 2004.
There has been no significant progress in Senate counting this week, but it might yet be worth keeping an eye on the Australian Capital Territory. The Liberal vote is clear of a 33.3 per cent quota on 34.1 per cent, which will need to drop at least 1.5 per cent if the Greens are to sneak through for an upset. At the 2004 election it actually increased by 0.22 per cent.
1,082 Comments
Thanks for all the explanations William, and it certainly makes me a bit more optimistic about a few of the close seat contests.
It can be a bit hard telling whether all the postals have been counted in a particular seat. Should I take it that the number for ‘envelopes issued’ doesn’t necessarily mean the total number of ballots to be counted?
Morning William (he who never sleeps). Interesting that Nelson is behind Turnball, I would have thought it would be the other way round.
Also William, what’s your opinion on Buswell? I can hardly imagine he’d be more ineffective than Omodei but I’m struggling to think of any other Liberal Party members in WA who would be strong leaders.
That being said, there’s obviously a lack of talent on both sides of WA politics and they’d both be well cautioned to bring in some new blood at the next election.
Thanks heaps, William,
Can anyone tell me where I could find the specific vote leads in for all close seats? I’ve tried the AEC and ABC.net.
Like many here, I’d like to know how the vote count in Bennelong currently stands. Of course, it’s an academic exercise whether McKew wins it now or very soon at a By-election, but sweeter if it’s now.
Abbott has said the Liberals won’t be back the Lodge “for a while”. With him threatening to de-stabilise the new Liberal leader before he is even elected, they won’t be if Abbott has anything to do with it.
On ya Tone.
Should be good. If, as expected, Nelson wins (the Liberal Party’s version of Simon Crean as oppoition leader) then both Abbott and Turnbull will spend this term undermining him and each other.
Should set Labor up in office for the next decade and a half.
I see that Costello didn’t attend yesterday’s last supper with Howard. Costello must really loathe and detest him.
Mr. Squiggle,
“1) 1 in 4 Australians are born overseas- exactly what should they apologise for? (sorry for coming here? building a new life, surviving the civil wars I left behind?)”
Sorry, I am a naturalized citizen born and I have no problems in saying sorry to the indigenous Australians.
Julie @6 Ditto for me on saying Sorry to the first Aussies.
Just checked my bet site, but alas no Opp. Leader option to put a fiver on Nelson.
However, they are offering “any other Party” except Labor in 2010 @ $4.50.
Sorry has different meanings. I caught up with someone recently who I hadn’t seen for a long time. She told me her husband died. I said “I’m sorry”, as you do in these situations..
That doesn’t mean I was taking personal responsibility for his death
Some bloke who was at Sydney Uni. same time as Abbott was telling tales on the Blogocracy site about what a wild man he was during his years there.
Abbott had a small mob which followed him around most lunch times as he shouted at apathetic students through his bullhorn outside the Library.
Abbott is the Coalition’s Mark Latham and will increasingly reap a similar whirlwind for his colleagues.
hemingway @ 4 try:
virtual tally room:
vtr
bennelong> is here.
Look at the links:
Two Candidate Preferred By Polling Place
Declaration Vote Scrutiny Progress
for detailed breakdowns of postal, pre-poll counts etc.
Thanks for the site William.
..sorry for not checking html more closely…not enough coffee yet…hope this is ok
vtr
bennelong is here.
Look at the links:
Two Candidate Preferred By Polling Place
Declaration Vote Scrutiny Progress
for detailed breakdowns of postal, pre-poll counts etc.
Thanks for the site William.
Agree William, those odds on Nelson look extremely tempting.
The votes in McEwen that were sent to Scullin will be counting this afternoon
Labor won the election cos they rule.
Liberal lost the election cos they suck.
Re 8,
Spiros Says:
Since the E*L*E*C*T*E*D government is going to say “sorry” in consultation with what the Aboriginals want (wording/place, etc.), you are by default taking personal responsibility like it or not. We finally have a government in place who will do what is right so I don’t mind that naysayers like you are along for the ride. You haven’t got a choice in the matter now. Cheers
I would expect Turnbull to be elected today -although the SMH reports that Nelson is gaining the support of conservatives in the party so he could benefit from this. Also Tony Jones said last night on Lateline that some Liberals are disillusioned with Turnbull’s very high profile media campaign and I imagine some of them probably won’t like him abandoning Howard’s positions on key issues and there may be a backlash against Turnbull due to both these factors and Nelson could be the beneficiary. On the other hand, Nelson’s limitless ambition and opportunism could be an off putting factor to many MPs and this may benefit Turnbull
The Age today quoted Liberal sources as saying Abbott was only capable of mustering up 4 votes for his leadership bid. LOL. Wonder who was planning to vote for him
This may be an interesting assessment of Howard’s legacy. If Turnbull wins, it could be viewed as somewhat of a repudiation of Howard and may also signify that there is a significant bloc of the party who disagreed with his policies but who kept their silence during his government. The downside for Turnbull is that if he does win, he’ll be relentlessly undermined by Abbott and the other Howardbots in the Liberal Party. I suspect he’ll be the next Andrew Peacock -always the bridesmaid but never the bride (in other words he’ll never be PM).
I suspect we’ll see Abbott re-positioning himself to try and look more moderate over the next few years (not with any sincerity but similar to the way did that Howard did in 1995 when he pretended to repudiate his past positions on social policy) so that he’ll emerge as a competent leadership contender in the future. Of course if he’s ever elected, he’ll go back to being the right wing ideological zealot he always has been
The AFR this morning seemed to tip the Lib leadership election decidedly in Nelson’s favor. I’m beginning to suspect that, while he can talk a good game, Turnbull simply doesn’t have the numbers. The Libs may be dazed & confused right now, but that hasn’t sent the majority of them into the self-examination needed for radical change. Nelson, to all appearances, is moderate, but I can’t imagine him as the bulldog Opposition leader that the Libs are going to need to constantly harry the Government…
Will Malcolm get a shadow Treasury portfolio as a consolation prize?
I think Victoria or even Queensland are better chances for the Greens than the ACT. They just need lots of BTL leaking against stated party preferences, whereas the ACT would require a big and unexpected bias in postals/absentees/etc.
There was talk at one time of Barnett not retiring early so he could make a comeback. That’s how bad the libs are these days. This Julie Bishop as state leader thing was never going to happen before, and certainly not now. Don’t wish that on us.
The Queensland Liberal Party woes look like only getting worse with Santoro’s faction trying to get Nicholls up as Leader to give themselves another vote on State Council when Parer resigns in a couple of weeks and Flegg threatening Legal action against Parer’s attempts to break the Parliamentary Leadership deadlock.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22839805-5006786,00.html
Julie @15, I read Spiros as siding with you.
I suspect Nelson as the most moderate, and “sacrificable” without destroying the Party in the process. Abbott is the obvious one to ’sacrifice’ in the “death seat” of Opposition leader in a first term govt honeymoon, but he’d probably take most of the Party “image” down with him.
If Turnbull is their best bet for 2010, they’ll save him for later. (Possibly others will also wait in the wings until the *heats* off and memories have faded, eg Downer) I suspect we may even see a number of Opp Leaders, for the first year or two, while others regroup, and then the *true* leadership challenge happens about 12-18 mths out from the next election.
For those interested in a wager just for fun on the Lib leadership, Lord Nelson is paying $9.80 at Betfair. “Kiss me, Hardy.”
18. Will Malcolm get a shadow Treasury portfolio as a consolation prize?
Traditionally the deputy leader of the Liberals gets to chose their own portfolio, which has inevitably been treasury. It will be interesting to see what Bishop chooses.
Dave -
Since Malcolm is the Once and Future King of the Libs, Bishop had better choose very carefully.
You know the rule: If you strike the King, you must kill him.
Being from WA and apparently winning the deputy position based on fundraising ability, is there any chance Bishop would choose Trade or somthing along those lines? In order to to make herself more attractive to the businesses providing the fundraising?
Possibly even Environment (to keep the miners happy)?
Graham Young puts the Santo camp’s ploys under the spotlight. Might I add that Joh Bjelke Petersen used a casting vote to keep himself in power about 18 months into his term when he was viewed as a hopeless performer too.
* There is a convention in leadership ballots that the leader not use their casting vote. Bit hard to work out where they got this one from. The only time I can remember a leader being in a position of needing his casting vote was John Gorton in 1971. Gorton refused to use his casting vote, and was widely derided at the time. I don’t think it creates a precedent, but if it does, Nicholls ought to be wary, because the successful challenger was Billy McMahon, arguably Australia’s worst Prime Minister
* The Liberal Party State Council can change the party’s constitution to give the Party President a casting vote in a tied parliamentary leadership ballot. Only state conventions can change the constitution, and there is a process that needs to be gone through first, including consultation and notice provisions. It would be a huge philosophical change for the party organisation to be able to dictate to the parliamentary wing, raising the spectre of the “bad old days” in the ALP when Arthur Calwell and Gough Whitlam had to wait outside their party’s executive for their instructions. “Never in our party” has always been the Liberals’ response to that.
* Bruce Flegg will be unable to vote in any State Council ballot becase of his “conflict of interest”. This would indeed be a breach of precedent if Flegg was prevented from voting on this matter. If this were taken seriously, then Warwick Parer should also be excluded because he obviously has a conflict of interest too, because this is about expanding his power.
http://ambit-gambit.nationalforum.com.au/archives/002592.html
Sorry means you wish it hadn’t happened.
Whether or not you are personally responsible.
It is what decent and caring people say when they feel for another’s suffering or sorrow.
This issue for me epitomises all that stinks about the Howard regime and will be the historical lens that future generations view us through, just as we look back in horror on slavery, genocide, and the invasion and destruction of other indigenous cultures around the world.
Howard’s refusal to apologise to aboriginal people is the greatest travesty of all, as it involves our own people that he was meant to govern on behalf of. – it outweighs AWB, in my opinion.
It shows a complete lack of humanity. And we allowed it to happen by voting this man into office 4 times..
To those of you who still support his position, you are fast becoming relics of a dying age.
The Qld Libs remind me of a factionalised co-op board I once had the misfortune to sit on. (Sad to say it was a v.large organisation).
Board of 8. Rival faction declared unannounced spill against Chairman. Claimed chairman couldn’t vote on his own position. Declared their man elected 4-3. Walked out of meeting claiming power. ‘Old’ chair had this ruse quickly overturned in court, but then to keep board alive had to try governing with his casting vote on every issue to claim a majority, as the rival faction refused to attend meetings.
A stressful farce at the time, but in retrospect quite an amusing example of ego above entity.
You can get 9-1 on Nelson at Betfair.
I think that the Libs will actually have some difficulty with their shadows. Pyne’s elevation to the Ministry was done grudgingly and there isn’t much talent below him. At the same time they’ve lost quite a few front line troops, either at the ballot box or by retirement since.
Spiros @ 8
I take your meaning to be in support of an apology – I think Julie may have misread you there.
It appears Spiros was echoing Howard’s long stated reason for NOT apologising to me.
If he was suggesting an apology he chose an unfortunate set of words.
To me, saying “sorry” is more about saying “I respect you” – at least in this context. The damage done by refusing to say sorry was significant. Even if saying sorry doesn’t actually change much, the removal of the refusal is a significant and symbolic step forward – and probably more important than the actual sorry itself.
Peter in Sydney,
Many thanks for posting the sites on voting count, mate. ‘Onya!
RA
I took Spiros to mean that just because he didn’t cause her grief personally, it was no reason NOT to say sorry. Maybe I’m confused.
Anyway, point is, it must be done.
Truss will need support
Hewson is saying Costello is biding his time to become leader before the next election. If that is true, they can kiss 2010/2011 good by too, because Cossie was the master mind of WorkChoices and any linking to the past will go against them.
DavidS: The Nats need life support. And for Vaile to say the Nats need a generational change and for them to install an older person in as their leader is ridiculous. At least the Libs have younger people who are willing to take on the position.
The fact that the Nats don’t hold O’Connor is a clear indication that they aren’t worth mentioning in WA politics.
Also, Carps actually appears to be trying to clean out the WA ALP – if so, more power to him! If he succeeds, the ALP will retain Government over here.
Tabitha #14,
Kindly leave thinking people (i.e. those who post intelligently on both sides at Pollbludger) alone, and go bother propeller.com for a while.
Doe’s anyone know if Wilson Tucky is in danger on preferences in O’ Conner in WA. I heard that every party except FF put him last. Is it true?. God I hope so! William your from WA do you have any insight?
Saying sorry: In a broader sense, the Government of Australia is an entity that continues in an unbroken chain over the decades, with the baton passed from one to the other.
It is perfectly reasonable for the Government of Australia today to apologise for the actions of an earlier incarnation of this Government.
Flegg to resign, with conditions
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22841022-29277,00.html
I am astonished that Brendan Nelson is even remotely likely to win this leadership ballot. The guy is a lightweight poser – a bit of meaningless fluff. And I don’t mean to be height-ist but he just doesn’t have the physical presence to be a leader, in any event.
Still, the party could do Turnbull a huge favour and let Nelson’s mediocrity burn brightly for a year or so.
Looks like Tabitha (14) has jumped ship and become an ALP supporter. Amazing what a good electoral thrashing can do.
Still no word from the delightful Isabella though. Crawled off somewhere to lick the wounds no doubt.
Howards’ refusal was far more symbolic gesture. It allowed the bigots to wear that symbolic refusal like a Swastika as a symbol of national pride.
I visited Canada, a couple of years ago, and did the tour of their Parliament House, and was surprised to find out their Senate composition includes 5 Senate seats appointed for life for Indigenous Canadians: 3 for First Nations representatives, and 2 for Inuit peoples.
Their Senate is not as constitutionally powerful as ours is of course, but still I remember thinking how interesting it would be if our Indigenous peoples, ended up with “balance-of-power” seats in our Senate.
Such a proposal in referendum I would think is much more solid, than just a few meaningless words in the Constitution Preamble. I would vote Yes with pride.
Rain – a good idea, but such a constitutional amendment would have less than a zero chance of success.
Yeah i’m surprised turnbull has gone out on a limb so early on. how many opposition leaders will the libs burn through b4 they put forward a serious one. should be good entertainment of the next 18 months or so. Question is who are the darkhorses waiting in the wings?
Lots of sad and sorry looking faces in Wagga – I’m lovin’ it!
If the Nats don’t amalgamate with the Libs soon, they’ll be kaput within two elections. Warren Truss as leader will only speed up the process.
Also on the Nats:
Some may have read the article linked below. It’s written by Dr Troy Whitford, lecturer in politics & history at CSU Wagga. Whitford is also a director of The Page Research Centre, the National Party’s “think-tank”: how’s that for an oxymoron!
Whitford has some good ideas on reviving the old dog, but he certainly isn’t calling for amalgamation.
“New leader must fight Libs and ALP”:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22822679-7583,00.html
Whitford on the Nats: “There is an intellectual vacuum in the party that needs addressing”. You don’t need to be Einstein there, pal.
Rain, if you look at the composition of the NZ parliament I think that would interest you. They have an allotted ‘M?ori electorate’ which allows for their continued participation in the parliament.
Of course their opinion is varid over a range of policies, and I think they’re generally pretty socially conservative. Definately a very interesting system to look at.
Forget the left and right, just close your eyes and imagine Abbott as the prime minister; to be blunt, without Howard Abbott is nothing.
William: The ALP lead in Herbert has increased to 108 votes – check the aec site.
Do we know for sure these supposed missing 3000 votes in McEwen actually exist? Labor would need just about every one of them to overturn Fran Bailey’s lead: not at all likely!
Prediction about Turnball I heard from a spin doctor on ABC Radio this morning: he will win the Liberal leadership AND self destruct in 12 months. Tony Abbott waits to pounce LOL
In small rural booths where there was no Green htv.s given out the evidence is that their preferences go all over the place (same for Families First). Tuckey looks secure. I hope Flynn does not turn out to be a replay of Hinkler in 2001 which was very disappointing.
The QLD Libs are an absolute laughing stock.
Tim Nicholls is just a puppet for Santo Santoro and Bill O’Chee. He can’t even convice 4 of his colleagues that he is a worthy leader.
And two proxies pulled out of his back pocket, IIRC.
Will Rudd take on the foreign affairs portfolio? McMullan has been mentioned; McClelland is a bit on the nose.
Rudd would do a good job cleaning up the mess left by his old sparring partner, Dolly the Sad Panda.
Has a PM ever done Foreign as well? Interesting thought but far too much foreign travel, surely, when his stated No1 priority is “working families” ..
Bob McMullan for Foreign.
ABC Radio says Bob Debus and John Faulkner will be promoted, Laurie Ferguson dropped, Combet/Shorten/Maxine become parliamentary secretaries: rumours as yet, nothing official.
Fagin: I certainly hope not. Sure Rudd would be good in it, but he has a lot on his plate. The work of the PM is far more demanding than Leader of the Opposition. News Ltd has an article with Crean being quiet about the prospect of taking on the FA role. Time will tell, but Rudd can’t take on the role.
The new and progressive direction that Turnbull has layed out for his party of right wing reactionaries should include a name change. The Hedgehog Party is my suggestion.
The Prime Minister’s job is surely too big these days to take on another portfolio, let along one as time consuming as Foreign Affairs.
I’m hoping for Bob McMullan as well – maybe John Faulkner as an alternative.
Don’t FA ministers spend a very large amount of time OS?
Interesting that Costello and Downer missed the farewell barbie yesterday. Lets hope that Costello was busy putting the finishing touches on “The Costello Diaries” … in store for Christmas !
Does anyone know the record number for women ministers ?. You would have to think that Gillard, Wong, Roxon, Macklin, Lundy, McLucas & Plibersek will give that a nudge.
If Fergie’s gone, that’s a step in the right direction. Jenny George is far more deserving for an ex-ACTU Prez, and she’s never had a real shot.
Also, just having a few high profile inner cabinet women is not good enough. Keating’s right that Labor’s women have got the right stuff. (I know, I know…..Reba Meagher…..ugh!)
Faulkner is such a powerhouse. Even in a opposition he made bureaucrats squirm during Senate estimates.
What’s happened in Flynn is similar to Maranoa, another big seat with a lot of solid Nats rurals. In Maranoa, the Nats got 62% of ordinary votes, but 79% of postals.
Johnny was perfectly happy when the Japanese government apologised for something that happened 60+ years ago (under a different regime), but when it came to doing the same for the Aboriginals he was entirely hypocritical. Good riddance rodent.
Landeryou says that Faulker will get defence and that McClelland will keep Foreign Affairs. Crean would then presumably be left with trade. I don’t know how Landeryou knows these things, but he frequently does.
I reckon the aec stats per seat are interesting but useless to work out winners as we do not know how many (if any) postal & pre poll votes are left to count per seat
because there is no pre polled total number of votes cast per seat or no postal total number of votes cast per seat…is it possible to assess how/who will win any of these close seats ?
I reckon Cossie will work out, as the legacy gets pissed on daily by his own team, that any comeback plans arent worth bothering with.
No Ron Brown, we won’t know for sure until all the votes are counted. I’d say Labor is a good chance in at least 2-3 of the close seats.
No Costello can’t come back from here. It’s the end for him. If people didn’t think he was gutless before… they will now.
Seems if the reports are correct Rudd has opted to minimise noses out of joint with a promise of promotion to the real ministry for newcomers, wise move in terms of internal party harmony.
Only 20 votes in it in Bowman! ALP ahead.
Ron Brown @ 68
I share your frustration, Ron.
Perhaps only the party scrutineers are to be able to say what’s really happening?
Never say Never LTEP, there was no-one more reviled in the late 20’s and early 30’s in Britain within the Conservative Party then Winston Churchill and look how that turned out.
For frustration, see senate.
At least they’re counting HoR.
So all Costello needs is for Angela Merkel to annex the Sudentenland and he’s back in business.
ESJ #75,
True, but remember that Stanley Bruce barely shoed his face around UAP conferences through the 1930s….
re postal & pre poll total votes in play – thanks re its in “declaration vote scrutiny
progress”
Re: Costello’s lack of courage.
Dr. John Hewson finally ended the “gentle” metaphors about ticker, guts or whatever. He said Costello didn’t have the balls. Good call, Doc.
You’d think I could spell S u d e t e n l a n d by now.
I think Labor will win Corangamite, Solomon, Flynn, Herbert and Bowman but lose Swan and Dickson. I think that makes 85.
Channel 10 news says ministry announced–i’ll switch to skynews.
Rudd on Sky Online Live now
” I think that makes 85.”
As a PB regular, Im shocked to discover Adam is more optimistic than LTEP
Tend to agree. 85 was my pick, so here’s hoping. Whats the prize again?
Well I did say ‘at least 2-3′. I feel more confident today, with reports that most of the postals counting has been done.
Nico, do you have a link the the Sky feed?
Bookies do NOT make a mistake as large as 6 to 1 odds Nelson in a 2 HUMAN race
Clearly turnbull must have it tied up
thought Nelson would be easier to Labor to beat in 2010 seeing the Labor margin will be only about 1.5% ?
Colbran pulling ahead in Herbert as we speak.
Ch 10 news was a squib.
All they know is that new cab members are Faulkner, Eliot, O’Connor and K.Ellis
Out are Lundy, McLucas, Fergusen, and O’Brien
Cabinet Portfolios will not be announced until after meeting this arvo
That isnt cabinet, thats the ministry.
no way that Ellis, O’Connor and Eliot will be in Cabinet!!
Verbal #90,
Why not? Ellis in Adelaide has been a very effective Labor presence there – lifted their vote handsomely. The others I don’t know that well, but they are probably of the same calibre as her.
Flash @46, LTEP et al
Such Consitutional amendments for ATSI power would have zero chance, but was interesting pie-in-the-sky ideal to ponder.
The main difference with the other C’wlth countries with Upper Houses on the Westminster system, is that for some reason Australia’s was set up to have much more *real* power. Greatly irritated successive govts on both sides of the political divide ever since. And Aussies refuse to change it, being historically reluctant to *change* anything.
Gives Australia another unique-in-the-world feature, along with compulsory and preferential voting – a powerful Senate.
In theory, a great idea of checks-and-balances. In practice, its been a royal pain-in-the-proverbial!
Now we have someone like Nick X — its just such a typical quintessential Aussie sense-of-humour joke, that I burst out laughing when I saw the probable Senate results
I suppose in worst-case-scenario, I could live with the concession of banning pokies nationwide in return for other important things, but I couldn’t stop laughing anyway!! *chuckle* and I guess being positive, a big improvement on Harradine! But South Ozzies? Just one question – *why?*
Faulkner will be in Cabinet, the other three in outer portfolios. All good choices. I’m sorry for Laurie, he’s a fine bloke, and shares my enthusiasm for obscure election statistics, but not ministerial talent in the current company.
guess ALL Labor supporters are lucky there ARE 80 seats in the bag guaranteeing a Labor win with 9 doubtful !!
instead of 75 in the bag & 14 doubtful
I reckon this is THE BRIGHT SIDE
I will be shattered if O’Brien is out. I was so looking forward to Kerry O’Brien interviewing Kerry O’Brien.
She’s only been in for one term, is very young, and has zero life experience outside of student politics and federal politics. Plus her high profile surely has a lot to do with being an attractive young woman. Those are some good reasons.
I’m not saying she doesn’t have ability, but why shouldn’t she have to do the hard yards like everyone else?
because the 4 that have gone out were all sub-cabinet ministers, and I doubt (though I am happy to be wrong) that there will be room in the major portfolios for those people, especially given that most of the major portfolios are already, really, in the bag.
Don’t get me wrong, I agree that Ellis has lots of talent and would be a great asset in Cabinet, but I just don’t think that its happened just yet.
Anyway, I was just clarifiying that we really only know about the Ministry at this point, not the cabinet (to my knowledge anyway). Lots of people use the terms interchangably, and they aren’t!
How come Arch Bevis survived?
Rain, the US system also gives the Senate a great deal of power – arguably, the Senate has more power there than the HoR, as the US Senate approves presidential appointments and treaties.
I didn’t even know who Kate Ellis was before visiting this site. She probably has as much experience as Peter Garrett in a parliamentary/political context.
Faulkner is a no-brainer, as is Wong.
Flash @ 56 Gough Whitlam was both PM and Foreign Affairs minister.
LTEP, if you think Faulkner and Wong are “no brainers” then you are an even bigger fool than I already thought. They are two of the smartest people you will ever meet. (Or in your case, not meet).
#102 I took LTEP to mean they were assured of spots. If not, I’m with Adam.
Adam, I mean ‘no-brainers’ as in there’s no doubt they should be in the Ministry. I have briefly met both.
Adam: I think LTEP was meaning its a no brainer for them to get promoted, not that they have no brains.
If the Libs choose Brendan Nelson over Malcolm Turnbull their ratings will drop by several points. Not the least of his problems is that he is so dour. Hde has nothing like the charisma of Malcolm. He will only be a stop gap until Malcolm steps in those shoes a year or so down he track. Malcolm however will be a breath of fresh air and exactly what the Liberal part needs for renewal. He will be a formidable Opposition leader and keep Kevin on his toes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Coalition ratings remain the same of even rise if Malcolm gets the job. He really is the only possibility.
I see Antony is now predicting 85-63-2 which is exactly what I predicted for weeks prior to the election(except I allowed for the possibility of an additional independent, reducing the Coalition to 62) plus the 53-47. If you are in politics long enough, you get to read these things.
Here’s another prediction:- if Malcolm gets the job he will give Kevin a hell of a run for his money at the next election.
Adam, I beleive LTEP thought that the decisions to include them were so clear and so compelling that the decision was a “no-brainer”.
The decision to include them, not the people themselves.
Adam, “no brainers” means that LTEP agrees with you !
I think it was in the sense that they were obvious candidates for promotion, Adam.
Penny Wong is sensational and I look forward to having her represent South Australia in the Rudd Labor government.
“If Fergie’s gone, that’s a step in the right direction. Jenny George is far more deserving for an ex-ACTU Prez, and she’s never had a real shot. ”
The Ferguson that is out is L, not M.
He means their going to get in ie”no brainers”
its not only obvious thats what he meant it’s a “no brainer”
6 people and counting who don’t think LTEP can explain/stand up for him/herself. I was first though.lol
OK, I retract my comment. LTEP reverts to being merely the fool I thought he/she was before, not a higher grade of fool.
Arch Bevis, Kate Lundy, Kerry O’Brien, Jan McLucas, Laurie Ferguson, Bob McMullin are OUT.
A fun game for those playing at home – match your fave ALP MPs with their new Ministries!
Cabinet Ministers
Prime Minister
Treasurer
Minister for Transport and Regional Services
Minister for Foreign Affairs
Minister for Trade
Minister for Finance and Administration
Minister for Health and Ageing
Attorney-General
Minister for Defence
Minister for Industry, Tourism and Resources
Minister for Immigration and Citizenship
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs
Minister for Education, Science and Training
Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations
Minister for the Environment and Water Resources
Minister for Human Services
Outer Ministers
Minister for Local Government, Territories and Roads
Minister for Revenue and Assistant Treasurer
Special Minister of State
Minister for Ageing
Minister for Justice and Customs
Minister for Communications, Information Technology and the Arts
Minister for the Arts and Sport
Minister for Veterans’ Affairs
Minister Assisting the Minister for Defence
Minister for Small Business and Tourism
Assistant Minister for Immigration and Citizenship
Minister for Fisheries, Forestry and Conservation
Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Indigenous Affairs
Minister for Community Services
Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Women’s Issues
Minister for Vocational and Further Education
Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for the Public Service
Minister for Workforce Participation
Assistant Minister for the Environment and Water Resources
Bevis did get the bullet according to ABC.
Adam @ 114
Not a good day for the ALP in Canberra then!
I was around yesterday and came back after a meeting to find that something I had written circa 50 comments above had been misinterpreted…..
Does anybody have the full list of names?
LTEP, what have done to Adam to make him so narky, by the way. (”Or in your case, not meet.”) – Just a little petty there perhaps Adam?
Adam, I shall cry myself to sleep tonight knowing I don’t have your approval.
Penny Wong for FA
Penny Wong for FA, I hope.
Could Rudd afford to have a Senator out of the coutnry for long periods? WOuld make the votes kinda tough.
Had the tradition of pairing been re-instated yet?
FA = Finance and Administration or Foreign Affairs?
Penny Wong 4 defence
There seems to have been some surprise about the extent to which postals have favoured the Conservatives. I’m confused – can I ask you pseph experts a few questions?
Have the postals been more favourable in this election than previously?
If “no” how come the seat estimates keep getting revised down – wouldn’t the predicitive models factor in the known postal bias?
If “yes” then how come?
Did the Libs put a huge amount of effort into getting people to go postal or is there something fishy here?
Sorry will be forthcoming from Rudd and Turnbull. Many others will support this sentiment and guess what? The sky won’t fall in.
Sorry, as an issue was, and is 100% Howard.
Howard’s non-Sorry for the Stolen Generation goes much more deeply than just this issue. There are countless occurrences of this reactionary behaviour throughout his entire public career.
It’s tied up in his inability to ever accept a Progressive or Left point of view as having merit. His knee-jerk reaction is to oppose the Left then tries to defend his position. Opposing arguments are of no consequence to him. He puts on his tin ear to opposition but proudly and defiantly uses semantics and rhetoric to appeal to, and stimulate, the ugly and base in too many of us.
The Stolen Generation, torture, the unemployed, ethnic mutual respect (racial tolerance), single mums, the rewriting of history, asylum seekers, climate change (he didn’t believe it for a minute), the homeless… it’s a long list.
To be fair, I can recall that he buckled early in his PMship. And then it wasn’t a buckle. Tens of thousands of refugees fleeing “ethnic cleansing” were offered temporary asylum in Australia. If you remember, JH opposed this vehemently and passionately for quite a while, but it was the constant press coverage of our “appalling national lack of sympathy” (and a quiet word from his media advisors!) that caused this huge reversal. He then announced, with much fanfare, “Operation Safe Haven”. And was completely unashamed! Gobsmacking!
This was probably the last time it happened. He became more sure of himself as the years went by and made an artform of the dog whistle.
But just enough Australians have just woken up.
Wong for Climate Change apparently
Martin B @111
Thanks for that correction, although I’m disappointed.
Albert F, I think the postals are running slightly lower than they did for the Libs at the past election (very slightly).
However, there’s a lot more of them so they make a bigger impact.
LTEP, Adam, enough. Try to leave the personal baggage at home, people.
Regarding the ministries, here’s a few picks of mine:
1. Treasury – Swan will keep it.
2. Foreign Affairs – Given the spectacular job Penny Wong did during the election campaign, I’ll take a punt and call FA for her.
3. Minister for Health – Nicola Roxon’s not going anywhere anytime soon.
4. Minister for the Environment – Garrett won’t keep it after his stuffups during the campaign. I think that he’ll get Arts and Culture instead (A&C to be hived off from Communications). Not sure who will go to Environment, though.
…and Treasurer, AG, Customs, Trade, Works, Education and a bucketload more. That was just nuts. Is it any wonder it eventually ended in tears?
http://www.alp.org.au/people/index.php?task=ps&type=shadows&state=&keywords=
that is a list of the shadows.
IMO, Tanner has FA, Wong is my tip for FACSIA
Skynews banner says Debus is IN.
Warren Snowden for a junior ministry, Sky says. Prepare to bored rigid. He is known around Aboriginal communities in the NT as “the white rabbit” in that he just sort of pops his head up here, there and everywhere, looking slightly bewildered, and doing little else of note.
I suspect Plibersek will get FACSIA.
Can anyone explain Justine Elliot? I don’t get it… I didn’t realise she was a particularly strong performer.
Tanner will keep Finance. Do a good job too.
damn it, Ruddie is already costing me money…. the share market is under performing the other major market by 3% this week already ….
Plibersek is definitely geting a facial
Albert F, the ABC computer predicted Labor would win 86 seats on election night, even though Labor were ahead at the time in 89. Some of us got carried away with election night results; postals always favour the Tories. It’s still disappointing to see Labor leads turned around by postals, but that’s life.
Mathew – I suspect Garrett will keep the enviroment – he was an liability during the election – but is not so vunerable now the ALP is in govt.
Warren Snowdon and Justine Elliot have come from the clouds. I don’t know why you’d put Snowdon in unless he’s to be Minister for Indigenous Affairs – and I don’t know that even that is a good idea.
Elliot must have some sort of regional-based portfolio.
Kate Ellis on the front bench. *Sighs contentedly*
I’ve missed your posts Dovif.
There is still time to get “postals” in – as long as its date stamped before 24 November you can get them in by 7 December. Just need a franking machine really.
Peter Garrett has interesting plans for Arts, including a droit de suite for Aboriginal art. That is when an Aboriginal painting sells a proportion goes to the artist or the artist’s family. He should get Aboriginal Affairs and Arts. Bob Debus might get Environment. He’s very familiar with it, failing that Attorney General. I doubt if Penny Wong, of the Left, no matter how fabulous she is, will get Foreign Affairs.
Albert F #142,
In that case, I certainly hope he wises-up in a hurry. He was a frontman, after all – you’d think that he knew how to handle the press by now…. (mutter grumble).
FACSIA is apparently set to be broken up. Plibersek to get Family and Community Services, possibly Garrett to get Indigenous Affairs.
Macklin to go back to Education, now that Smith appears to have been promoted?
dovif, hang in there in the markets. There’s some superb buying right now.
AIM,CRK,IMP,GRK etc etc
Prime Minister – Rudd
Treasurer – Swan
Minister for Transport and Regional Services – M. Ferguson
Minister for Foreign Affairs – Crean
Minister for Trade – McClelland
Minister for Finance and Administration – Tanner
Minister for Health and Ageing – Roxon
Attorney-General – Debus
Minister for Defence – Fitzgibbon
Minister for Industry, Tourism and Resources – Evans
Minister for Immigration and Citizenship – Burke
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry – Elliot
Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs – Plibisek Minister for Education, Science and Training – Smith
Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations – Gillard
Minister for the Environment and Water Resources – Albanese
Minister for Human Services – Macklin
Thats my cabinet list, but its wrong, because Wong isnt in it, I just don’t know who they will bump to fit her in. Mackiln is the obvious choice, but they won’t give her DHS, wo where would they put her… interesting, I wait with baited breath!
AAP reporting McMullan has been dropped? Surely, surely not.
Interestingly, now Broadbent is recording a swing to him in McMillan.
Rain @ 92 re:Mr XBut South Ozzies? Just one question – *why?*
Quite easy: X is the quintessential non-politician. Yes: he has stunts; but he is way more than a single issue poli.
As well as no-pokies he is big on states rights [the workchoices high court decision was the reason that he decided to switch to fed. politics] and water resources.
The fact that SA is at the end of the Murray Darling sewer and that the major parties did not focus on this during the campaign was a reason that he got many votes.
Debus would be a good Foreign Minister actually. He is very urbane and mixes easily with all sorts. Not sure if Kevin Rudd wants to give it to someone on the Left though. Anthony Albanese will certainly want Environment but may not get it.
EdwardStJohn
Ashame to admit it, voted with Ruddie, Coward’s use by date was the 90s he just did not know it
Verbal #149,
Good god, that waffler Crean as FA Minister? Shoot me now, please. I’m thinking that given the importance of education in Rudd’s election platform, Science and Training will be rolled into it, all under Stephen Smith.
Dario@133. Gough only ever took on Foreign Affairs when he was PM, with the exception of the first 2 weeks when so much legislation was produced. That initial period is often called the Duumvirate – Whitlam and Barnard – though Gough tells me it was really a Trumvirate because “The Governor-General was sitting at the end of the table signing it all”.
No, Whitlam was FM as well as PM well into 1973, not just during the duumvirate.
Neilbris, I felt too that Kevin Rudd would be by far the best for Foreign Minister if he can combine the two jobs.
Whitlam and Barnard were Ministers for Everything during that amazing period.
Yes, Whitlam was FM until November 1973.
ABC also reporting McMullan is out. Sorry to see that.
ABC says Garrett has environment, but Penny Wong has Climate Change.
So maybe the Latham diaries about McMullan being a notorious leaker are right?
Maybe he leaked to the wrong person about Dear Leader?
ABC says Faulkner Special Min. of State
The ABC will be streaming both the ministry announcement and the Liberal leadership announcement at their website.
Yes I’m sorry to see McMullan out too. The others were duds. All the newcomers are good value.
Dovif,
As a friend of mine said, he made a lot of money under Howard has cashed it in and is now waiting for the good buying opportunities after a year or two of Labor to make more money.
Stayed too long? Unfortunately to have the ego to want it in the first place you probably find it hard to believe its time to go. I dont think history will show its a sin peculiar to Howard only.
Ed St. J
If what you say is true about McMullan, fair enough. But still a loss of competence and experience.
Adam, read my post again – I said “Gough only ever took on Foreign Affairs when he was PM, with the exception of the first 2 weeks”. The critical words are “with the exception”. During the first 2 weeks Gough and his Deputy were ministers for everything. Beyond that he only kept Foreign Affairs.
Edward, your friend is what’s commonly known as a sore loser. That’s what all the sore losers are saying.
163 [So maybe the Latham diaries about McMullan being a notorious leaker are right?
Maybe he leaked to the wrong person about Dear Leader?]
Don’t get too excited ESJ, it’s more likely McMullan will be the Leader of the House and flog the Libs tactically in the parliament.
McMullan would also make an excellent Speaker, but I imagine Jenkins or Price will get it. (Landeryou says Jenkins)
Who will be Speaker? Rudd promised independence in that role.
They all promise independence… independence can be construed any way you wish. I’m sure the Libs will say Hawker was a fine and independent speaker.
Hemmingway
“ABC says Garrett has environment, but Penny Wong has Climate Change.”
mmm – neat trick – Garrett’s election efforts get him demoted without changing portfolios.
The Australian is reporting Smith for Foreign Affairs
Amazing that Peter Garrett has indeed got Environment. That’s a heck of a vote of confidence from Kevin Rudd. All is forgiven evidently. I’m actually very pleased about that. We are in for very interesting times.
Gough was both PM and FA in his first ministry.
He later made Don willisee FA but was in essence still FA which showed he couls stuff both being PM and FA
I am not making any aspersions about McMullan other than reporting what Latham said in the diaries about him. Presumably if Rudd wanted to have saved him he could have.
Steve I thought being leader of the house means you have to be a minister?
LTEP – Well we will see about a recession, I dont want to be BIS Shrapnel but we are statistically overdue.
Now that the schadenfreude is done, must be tough for those who missed out on a personal level. 12 years of chasing the prize and then to be denied by your own at the cusp of victory. I think Rudd is lucky he has a reasonable margin. Note how Howard even gave Wilson Tuckey a go – disaffected people can cause so much trouble.
I’ve worked closely with Penny Wong through some quite difficult issues and she is extremely capable and keeps her cool throughout. She will be highly competent on climate change and will surprise many people.
Dud ministers cause even more trouble.
Smith for FA would be a very good move.
Why is everyone so down on Garrett? His only fault was to make a joke to a media snake.
I think we’re seeing that Rudd was serious when he said “I will decide”.
He’s more a President than a PM so far.
ABC says Smith has Foreign Affairs too.
178 [Steve I thought being leader of the house means you have to be a minister?]
I can’t recall anything that would give me that impression. Just because the tories operate that way does not mean that other combinations are not possible or better.
Adam @180 I agree re the Garret attacks being uncalled for. They do, however, highlight his relative inexperience. Environment would also be a risk in light of his past/lyrics.
However, if a ministry for Climate Change is created, this would help offset (pun intended) the foregoing.
Ed St J yours is a smart friend … Howard won’t be the last I agree … it was a good govenment, it made decision … and it lost its way the last years under Howard
Lose the election …. His friend’s view is supported by history … the australian govenment cycle is Liberal in government, times are good. Since time are good, we get Labor in Govenment so they can make us feel good. We tell them to look after the environment, to spend money on everything. Soon inflation is up, people are defaulting on their home, people are unemployed and we get the Liberals back to get them to look after the Economy …. the govenment do what we tell them to do, not either party’s fault …. maybe Rudd will be different, like he say, he sure sound and have the background of a Liberal
Gillard for Education AND IR?
Adam,
The feckless joke was only the half of it. Ironically, it’s probably Abbott that saved Garrett by outgaffing him.
Dovif… times were good under Howard as Treasurer? Is that what you’re saying?
Supposedly Snowden has got a ministry gig, along with Justine Elliot, Debus and Kate Ellis.
I’m surprised Smith is out of education – would they switch McLelland to there, with Smith taking FA. And what is going to happen with Fitzgibbon – surely they’ll move him out of defence…
Hemingway, what was the other half?
You can always put duds in pretend ministries and then let them go after a term.
Dovif, I think you need to remember also that mortgage default’s are at record highs.
Garrett has not been saved, as Albert F noted. He’s got Environment but without the key area of Climate Change so he’s left explaining why, against his better judgment, the Tassie pulp mill is going ahead. He gets to talk about whales too.
This is a significant demotion. Climate Change will garner more headlines than any other single issue in the next couple of years.
ESJ,
I would assume Kelly would get Veterans Affairs reasonably soon, with Combet, Shorten and McKew also in line to get decent ministries.
191 [You can always put duds in pretend ministries and then let them go after a term.]
Like Mal Brough you mean?
Richard Jones,
Good call on Penny Wong. She ran many hard yards in the campaign, especially on Skynews. Is yours a nom de plume, or are you THE Richard Jones Balmain/Leichhardt?
Adam
I agree on Garrett. It was one slip, widely reported. But even sans Climate Change, environment will still give him some meaty issues to deal with, including the Gunns Pulp Mill.
Well steve, I think Howard did quite a good job of cycling people through ministries like
Jim Lloyd
Dana Vaile
Jackie Kelly
Wilson Tuckey
etc etc
Both parties have large proportions of smoking duds so you have to buy them off and hope they dont do too much damage. Its seems they all like to ride around in the limos and do the trips?
Dropping McMullan is bloody madness – the only sense i can make of it is if he becomes Speaker.
The man is a walking, talking book of standing orders – would bring some integrity back to the chair.
I’m surprised Garrett didn’t get shifted to Indigenous Affairs. Unless they’ve given that to Snowden…
Any word on what Bob Debus got?
Adam,
A few days before Abbott’s day of Apologies, Garrett had wrongly stated Labor’s position regarding developing countries for the upcoming future Kyoto Mach II negotiations. Rudd immediately corrected him, but it was not a good look.
Garrett often looked out of his element, although did better than expected in the Debate with Turnbull.
Swing Lowe-
Kelly in Veterans Affairs, wasted.
Its a declining area – WW2 vets and widows falling off the perch rapidly. Nice photo ops and cups of tea though.
any news on the Libs leadership?
ESJ (#203)- that is a moron’s statement. If you knew anything about the portfolio, you wouldn’t talk such rubbish.
Hemingway 187
Yes Tony Abbott, the gift that keeps on giving LOL.
I only caught up on the full text of his leadership comments on LateLine last night when I read the SMH this morning. An indication of future leadership challenges – just wonderful. So now Labor can accurately point out that the Liberals are both sticking to their unpopular old policies, and internally divided. I dub him the new Shadow Minister for Remaining in Opposition.
ESJ,
Kelly in VA would be an initial step. I’d expect he’d end up in Defence ultimately, but he’ll probably have to jump through a few hoops to get there.
198 The difference is ESJ that Labor intends achieving something while in power and not squandering time as your list of ministers was want to do. Leaving Ferguson out is a good move at this stage.
Dovif, I’d suggest your reading of history is flawed. Historically the ALP is elected when the economy needs fixing and/or people are feeling insecure. They trust Labor to provide a safety net and some compassion in these times. Once the economy is humming again they tend to elect Conservatives in the hope of maximising their financial returns. Labor tends to be the economic and social fixer.
ESJ #178,
You have noted that we are overdue for a recession. Does this mean that you won’t blame Labor if it happens within, say, the next 24 months?
Generally,
I wonder why Smith would be given Foreign Affairs? He seemed well-placed in Education, handing Bishop her backside every time they met.
Btw, I want to go on the record to congratulate Russell Broadbent on getting a swing towards him in McMillan. It shows what can happen if you’re willing to stick to your core beliefs, even if they contradict with the party’s official position…
No Kelly is the perfect person for FA in future
204 [any news on the Libs leadership?]
Yes Glen running around like chooks with their heads cut off as usual.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/29/2104874.htm
Rudd News Conference at 1pm
Optimist, I think you will find the demographic realities are undeniable when it comes to Vets Affairs.
So when will Mal or Bren come out 1:30 or beforehand?
Robert McClelland is Attorney-General (surely a placeholder for Dreyfus). Stephen Smith in Foreign Affairs.
McLelland to be A-G. So what does Debus get then?
Mathew Cole -
Yes, Australian governments influence outcomes at the margins, we are just too small otherwise to cause recessions except in exceptional cases. But if there is a recession Labor will wear it because it happened on their watch, not fair but true.
Stephen Smith LOL we go from Alexander Downer to Smith HAHAHAH!
Who’s got Education?
No wonder they chose Smith because Rudd will do all the work for him LOL!
Gillard has IR and education
Gillard has Education and IR according to the Herald Sun website.
McMullan is now Parliamentary Secretary
Nelson supposedly Liberal leader
The ONLY way to have a reasonably independent speaker is to make it a public service or statutory position
Whilst the appointment may be pro the Government in power , I suspect it may be
more independent than a Government MP
The other disgrace of the ‘Reps’ is question time :
opposition questions do not get answered
government questions do get answered as they’re “Dorothy Dixers”
(or in respect to Downer are they ” Dolly Dixers”)
All will be revealed at the press conference. It’s all speculation till then. I feel sorry for McMullen though….and Bevis is my local member and a decent bloke – though perhaps it’s difficult to justify so many Brisbane members on the front bench. I’d have thought Bevis was superior than Snowden though. Rudd must want NT to have representation. He’s spreading the love around!
Link in the Oz regarding Lib leadership:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22839806-601,00.html
Nelson 45-42 Sweeeeeet
Soc @ 206,
Yeah, I read the Lateline Abbott interview transcript at abc.net, and you’re spot on. Tony went a quite a lo softer on him because he was willing to show up on such a “hard” day.
Given the total rejection he’s copped, I’d surmise that a mid-life crisis looms large in Abbott’s future.
ESJ #219,
Fair point. People still seem to forget that the Western world was in recession in 1989, not just Australia. Damn Paul Keating and his big mouth.
what about deputy?
Nelson in as sacrifical lamb
Rudd to do a press conference at 1 pm AEST on his new Ministry
Thanks Nayto, for the extra info on Nick X
Woot, I just won $200 if Nelson was voted leader.
bob Debus was a rather ordinary minister in a very orddinary to very bad State government in NSW.
Why has he a m inistry.
Kelly, Shortern and Combet have better credentials
225 [Nelson supposedly Liberal leader]
You mean a former union boss who was an ALP member. It won’t get better if that was true.
Young now up by 60 in Bowman, Dutton up by 200 in Dickson.
Ron Brown #226,
The other way to get a non-partisan Speaker would be to appoint Katter or Windsor as the Speaker.
“Swing Lowe Says:
November 29th, 2007 at 12:32 pm
I’m surprised Garrett didn’t get shifted to Indigenous Affairs.”
I think Minister for the enviroment could go under the alternative title of “Minister that has to talk to Bob Brown”. In that sense, Garrett is well placed and now has had his wings clipped by having climate change removed.
He is not such a liability now, as the scare tactics he was subject to don’t work once the election is won.
SL: That means Dutton has dropped back since this morning in Dickson
ESJ (#215) – depends on your understanding of the demographics – if you think vet affairs is only about returned combat personell from the 1940’s and 50’s, then you’re take is correct. Problem is – it’s not. What about Vietnam vets, merchant seaman, Gulf War vets (both conflicts), veterans of countless peacekeeping missions, people involved in atomic testing….the list goes on. As I said, yours is a superficial and generally poor understanding of the portfolio. WWII vets and widows dropping off the twig does not mean that Vet Affairs is an irrelevant or increasingly irrelevant portfolio.
yeah but thats 89% counted he’s safe…
All Hail Admiral Nelson!
YES!
Just picked up nett $400 on Lord Nelson, many thanks to William and your cheque is in the mail.
HOLY CRAP!
Nelson wins!!!
Nelson has the unholy alliance of conservatives and anti-Turnbull moderates behind him. Nelson, from what I gather, is a moderate, which means he’s got to move his personal views to the right.
And of course, Turnbull will be waiting there on his frontbench (presumably), waiting for Nelson to stuff up and launch a leadership challenge…
Now, now Observer, Kevin told us we had to look beyond the “old battles”.
238 [The other way to get a non-partisan Speaker would be to appoint Katter or Windsor as the Speaker.]
Katter has been known to turn up to meetings days late. He won’t be responsible for anything.
Bishop deputy
Matthew Cole@238. Katter as Speaker??!!! HAHAHAHA I can imagine that giant hat of his as the perfect accessory to the Speaker’s robe. He wouldn’t expel the honorable members from the chamber – he’d leap over the Speaker’s desk and go the biff…”And F**@@N STAY OUT!!!
This is a great day for UNION BOSSES.
UNION BOSSES are taking over the Liberal party.
Dickson looks like being extremely close. There are 5000 uncounted absentee ballots, which are favouring Labor 51/49. But there are 3000 uncounted postals and pre-polls left which favour Libs 52/48. So we’re just going to have to watch and wait now…
Steve #248,
Then Windsor instead. But my principle remains – an Indie Speaker would generally be non-partisan.
Hemigway (#230),
did you happen to catch this little exchange on Lateline. I was in fits of laughter…..
TONY ABBOTT: But Peter has had many meals at the Lodge with John Howard.
TONY JONES: Why wasn’t he at this one?
TONY ABBOTT: He and Tania hadn’t been to a foursome with John and Jeanette.
TONY JONES: I hate even to contemplate the thought of that. But why wasn’t…
TONY ABBOTT: I would have loved to have been at such a gathering. And of course, Peter and Tania had been at gathering with John and Jeanette and other people.
All i can say is eeeeeewwwwwwwwwww!!!!!!
Once Abbott pulled out, a Nelson victory was always more than likely. Abbott will have pulled out because he knew Turnbull would win otherwise.
This is going to be hilarious – both parties are going to have simultaneous press conferences!!!
Oh great, Bishop is deputy! The Libs will still be fighting for WorkChoices.
Optimist #255,
For the sake of Rudd’s chances in 2010, I hope that Abbott never shuts his mouth. It should be interesting to see his & Gillard’s reactions to facing of in Parliament again – from a reversed position.
I look forward to seeing Turnbull go quietly to the back bench. ha ha ha .
Snowden gets defence personnel, Fitzgibbon keeps defence, Wong has climate change AND water.
and what about maxine? anyone care to make a prediction before 1pm (when rudd reveals all)?
252 [UNION BOSSES are taking over the Liberal party.]
Looks like the days of 70% Liberal Lawyers are over. They can’t even get a Liberal lawyer up as leader these days.
Dr Brendan Nelson will be the next PM of Australia! And what’s more, someone who was once in the service of Evil and who has been redeemed. Proves that there’s hope for everyone on these forums yet.
I wish I had put some money on him, the bookmakers were offering some juicy odds.
Bishop is deputy yayyyyy!!!!
Senior Flinders Academic heard this morning: “I should have failed that bastard when I had the chance”.
JULIE
Lord Nelson
Julie Bishop
Garrett should have been punted. He has been hopeless as a politician.
Nelson is good for the liberals as he wil ltake the opprobium of being opposition leader get thrashed and then hand over to Turnbull who could win after that.
however I can see a bad press for Nelson and he mightn’t even hang in there.
how many times will we hear he is a half nelson!
Maxine is not going to get anything (Except perhaps a parliamentary secretary position).
Optimist
To be honest I agree with ESJ on veterans affairs. All the groups you mention exist, but, relative to the size of other needy groups that don’t get a Minister of their own (homeless, mentally ill, disabled) the numbers are frankly tiny. I think the existence of a separate ministry to cater for such a comparatively small group is increasingly hard to justify.
264
Nostradamus – Not only has Nelson had ministerial experience that Rudd hasn’t but he’s got leadership experience to boot with the AMA a wise choice for leader.
JULIE FOR DEPUTY HURRAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
passthepopcorn #262
Communications for McKew. She’d have a ball there.
SMH is reporting Nelson winning Lib leadership. They have obviously opted to fade out rather than flame out.
This is the fourth time a Labor rat has headed the non-Labor forces (after Cook, Hughes and Lyons). Can’t you guys find any talent of your own?
Glen,
I humbly (or not so humbly) suggest that the Libs have f*cked up by not electing Turnbull as their leader (unless they don’t want to win in 2010). Turnbull had the only chance of winning votes from Labor – Nelson is just another talking head.
To me, he seems a lot like Crean – very dull and has picked up the Libs leadership not through any inspiring vision but by courting the Lib right and some bored backbenchers…
I’d like to thank Tony and Brenda for ensuring that Malcolm’s ambition has been kept in check, thereby ensuring many years of leadership battles to come, while the ALP get on with the job of running the country properly.
As of Saturday, Rudd will have something Nelson will never have – prime ministerial experience.
But i agree with you, that Rudd has never worked as a UNION BOSS, but Nelson has.
Umm, if the Lib vote was 45-42 for Nelson, where do they get 87 members from? I thought with their decimated ranks they could now barely muster 60.
Brendan Nelson’s version of gravitas looks like self-parody.
The senators get to vote.
Julie Bishop is a good choice for deputy, in my non-biased opinion.
Adam #274,
Remember that neither Menzies nor Fraser were ALP rats – although it looks like Fraser may just become one AFTER being the PM…..
Yep, Bishop was their best choice as deputy. Still think they should have picked Turnbull as leader…
Swing Lowe, i could of made that post when Rudd won the leadership, we’ll see how well Lord Nelson goes and its nice to know we’ve got leadership potential waiting in the wings should we need it while Labor have Rudd or zip!
How can someone who has a motorbike be dull SL?
274
Adam – yes Labor rats have helped us win in the past have they not good news for us Tory’s
JULIE, JULIE, JULIE, JULIE, JULIE, JULIE, JULIE, JULIE, JULIE, JULIE, JULIE, JULIE!
Brendan Nelson’s an excellent choice – good for him.
Krudd dumps Bob McMullan selects the vacuous bimbo Ellis for the frontbench? I didn’t think stuff-ups would start so early!
And as the counting continues, Labor’s “emphatic victory” is looking more and more pathetic.
280 [The senators get to vote.]
Yes, members and senators get to vote in these gigs.
Nelson – so obviously a stop-gap. At least TRY to make the ALP mildly concerned about the next election.
Oh, and Julie Bishop as deputy. Fantastic!
Glen, I guess we’ll see soon enough whether Nelson was a good choice.
It would be interesting to see if Turnbull gets into the shadow cabinet and what reward Abbott gets from Nelson for giving him his votes. Could Abbott be the new shadow treasurer?
Nelson is a conceited, pompous jackass and won’t last until 2010. Turnbull and Abbott will now form an alliance and white-ant him.
Iain Duncan-Smith here we come !
Did the Libs announce the voting for deputy? I’d just be amused to know how many votes Chris Pyne got? He said himself, he has “political instinct”. ROTFL.
285 [Brendan Nelson’s an excellent choice - good for him.]
He’s very popular with the Labor voters Steven Kaye because it means a Union Boss has been placed at the top of the Liberal Parliamentary party. Beautiful!!!
“What percettage of Liberal leaders are former union bosses?”
[menacing voice] “100%”
I can think of two reasons why Nelson won.
1) He is expendable. Put him in charge will the fires rage then switch to Turnball.
2) Turnball is not liked.
Being able to win an election is not on my list.
I’ll be interested to see how Bishop goes. I think she has a very high style to substance ratio – and she’ll make little progress. But we’ll see….
Nostradamus,
I see you are continuing with your perfect score for predictions. So far you’ve scored a big fat zero for everything you’ve said would happen. Not ONE single prediction you’ve made so far this year has come true. Yesterday you said the Libs would win the elections on postals. And today another bound to fail prediction. Keep up the good work.
Perfect result for Labor supporters: Turnball, Abbott and possibly Costello will have the knives out for Nelson, watch the Liberals implode even further LOL
Glen, you can salivate all you want over Julie Bishop.
My girl Kate Ellis is in Cabinet Woohoo!
Hey steve with Dr. Nelson as our leader, we can lock in the Doctor’s wives for 2010 LOL!
The ABC stream is up.
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/networktv.asx
What room is that?
Turnbull was offering a real break from the past for the Libs. The elevation of Nelson suggests to me that the Libs are not yet ready to make a clear break. There is a sense of hesitation and caution with really moving forward.
Plus, with only a very narrow win for Nelson, the party room is clearly divided. Abbott is also there hinting at taking another shot at the leadership in the future. So not exactly a very stable situation. I doubt that Nelson will ever feel very secure in his leadership position.
But the good news for Labor is that Rudd is going to be firmly in the spotlight and will have a lot of clear air for shaping the political agenda for the future. I doubt that the media will take much notice of Nelson, so even after a year, a lot of people out there in voterland will still be asking Nelson-who?
I suspect that Nelson’s biggest and most important job will not be taking up the fight with Rudd but trying to bring together the moderates and extremists in his own party. In other words, his will be a party rebuilding role and much less about taking a shot for becoming the next PM.
#287 -
“At least TRY to make the ALP mildly concerned about the next election.”
Little man, they should be concerned. As things stand now, according to Malcolm Mackerras, the Coalition only needs a 2.7% swing to win next time, and could govern with the help of independents with just a 2% swing.
Krudd, like Whitlam, is going to be a joke of a one-term PM-wannabe.
Didn’t Nostro predict the Libs would win the NSW State Election? Wrong at the state level as well.
Maybe you should try to predict the result in the Brisbane council election next year? If you can get that right, maybe some of us will believe your predictions…
Nostrodamus’s predictions are about as reliable as Ben Cousins staying drug free LOL
Yes Bredan Nelson is the living embodiment of stop-gap. He exudes mediocrity, a mis-guided sense of self-importance – and the way he puts on a deep, serious voice for what he sees as important announcements is just beyond comedy.
And Labor needs a 1.5% swing to win another 10 seats.
SK,
Whitlam had 2 terms – one from 1972 to 1974 and one from 1974 to 1975. Get your facts right…
He calls it his Super Hornet voice.
Steven Kaye: back again? I heard you had a hissy fit on election night and stormed off the board. Have you calmed down after a few tablets from your Liberal troll nanny?
glen, your taste in women (and political parties) is appalling!
Steven Kaye – pretty sure Whitlam won two elections.
Flash Rudd does the same thing, look at him talking about Bernie Banton he does the exact same thing as Nelson.
Glen: One of them is Prime Minister-elect, one is Opposition Leader-elect…
Terrible result for the libs. 43 votes to 45 means Nelson will be white anted till Turnbull’s ready for another challenge.
SK #301,
1. Whitlam won in 1972, then again in 1974.
2. Please stop the infantile name-calling. Kevin Rudd is now the PM-elect of Australia. That’s due at least a little respect (and yes, I said much the same to people who bashed Howard on a personal level).
Nelson is a sacrificial goose- who will probably last about 18 months. He was once a member of the ALP and president of AMA- so now a ‘union boss’ taking over the Liberals! What an irony!
Happy to see my local member (Kate Ellis) been promoted.
Sorry, 42/45
If the vote split 45 to 42, that makes 87 votes. Who exactly is voting here? The Coalition only has 58 seats (so far)….
So much for the 1pm presser. Perhaps Kevin’s running on QLD time.
Nelson YES!!!
Thats $300 profit for the Fed election and wait for it … $900 for the Libs leader ballot.
Yes yes yes!!!
Did you manage to get on at 6-1 William?
311 Rudd has never been a Union Boss but the Leader of the opposition was a Union Boss. Glen I can now understand what all the Liberal advertising using taxpayers money was really all about now. The Liberals were warning us of what they planned after the election.
53 Liberal Lower House members + 34 Senators = 87
Well, Swing Lowe, one and a bit terms – that second period of chaos can’t seriously be called a term of government.
Andos #317,
Both MHRs and Senators get to vote in a leadership ballot, in both parties.
Hey, at least we have a competent alternative option to put in should Nelson fail with Malcolm waiting in the wings who does Labor have, Swan?
And didn’t Rudd win by this margin 3 or 2 votes and he won the election?
Lord Nelson
Julie Thatcher
SWEET!
Anybody get any bets in?
I suppose it’s nice my local MP is now the leader of the floundering Libs, but he is quite useless. Julie Bishop only has marginally more utility – she’s only memorable for the hair, the eyes and the occasional bizarre anti-commie/lefty quote. Good to see it was a narrow win, and I’m sure there will be more exciting Liberal leadership games to come.
No comment on the deputy votes, they obviously didn’t want to hurt Pyne’s feelings.
Whitlam won two elections – the second was a double dissolution that he had to do to get anything through. However, he only lasted a total of three years, the length of one ordinary term.
Labor will lose government with a swing of less than 2% next time round. Governments rarely get a swing towards them in their second election; they should be very concerned indeed.
The Krudd ministry that is unveiled today is essentially the same rag-tag joke that lounged around the Opposition Benches in the Crean-Latham era a few years ago, a bunch of union-hack hyenas devoid of talent and shorn of competence. Meanwhile the Liberal caucus remains stacked with up and coming star material putting them in good stead for 2010.
Given the tight margin, and with the Libs in front in a few of the 6 or 7 undecided seats, maybe Turnbull can ask for a recount when the vote count is finalised? After all, it would be a shame to end this process too soon
Andos @ 317
Senators vote too
On Veterans benefits declining with time, see
http://www.themonkeycage.org/2007/11/the_longterm_economic_cost_of_1.html
“as of 1967, 1,353 dependents of [American] Civil War veterans were still drawing benefits”
As an ex-Liberal supporter I’ve got say I’m not tempted back to the conservative fold by Nelson/Bishop. The penny hasn’t dropped with the Libs. They’ll need one more election loss to convince them the party needs a major reform. Nelson/Bishop is a good result for Labor but a bad one for the Conservatives.
He got his own vote. He was promised another vote, but Abbott turned up late.
Turnbull will come from behind to win on postals.
Ah yes, I forgot about the honourable Senators.
Nostradamus
Govts OFTEN get swings towards them in the second term
Danny Yee
the decline over time is the point, but even to start with, Australia has a far smaller proportion of the population eligible to be veterans than the US does.
If anyone is interested, Guiliani is self-destructing somewhat on CNN in a Republican debate. He says he would refuse to sign a federal ban on abortion from Congress if the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade.
Nelson?! What a bad choice!
He looked as wicked and untrustworthy as Ruddock.
Turnbull is a nice, round and public-friendly fellas.
Close seats update:
Labor now ahead by 60 in Bowman and 129 in Herbert.
336 [Govts OFTEN get swings towards them in the second term]
Just like Beattie in Queensland, a narrow win and massive majority since.
334 Ashley
Hilarious!
did anyone see that most unfortunate photo yesterday of mr pyne astride a drain hole? it certainly detracted from the “gravitas” he was trying to project.
Nostradamus #328,
1. I seem to recall you claiming that Howard would win this election convincingly – no kudos to you there.
2. “Stacked” is the operative term to describe the LP frontbench – such of it as remains after the dual harrowings of the election and Nelson’s inevitable purge.
Am I right that a few of the Liberals who voted today haven’t officially won their seats yet, like Fran Bailey(there are those 3000 votes still to count), Peter Lindsay, Peter Dutton, Dave Tollner etc? So a few of Nelson’s votes could be considered invalid.
Steven Kaye, your predictions are terrific. What were you predicting for this election?
Look what we didn’t get:
Abbott and Costello
Abbott and Bishop
Lord Nelson and Lord Downer (of Baghdad)
Malcolm and Turnbull (he’d take both PM and Deputy with his ego!)
Crikey, they had some cracker combo’s, eh?
328 nostra could go the other way if the ruddster runs a tight ship. the libs now aren’t sitting on the fat margins they were last time and a lot of seats could fall.
The modern Liberal party: hard of earring.
HH, from what i read the RO of the Lib Meeting allowed MPs who were ahead on the count to vote, i wonder if Steve Irons flew over to vote?
Watch as Turnbull poisons Nelson’s leadership attempt. He did it with Howard and he will do it with Nelson.
Nostrodamus and Steven Kaye, you two blokes are full of crap!
Glen puts the rest of you conservative idiots to shame!
You can bet there will be a redistribution in one or more states before 2010, which will change the margins in seats, and Maxine McKew will greatly increase her margin in Bennelong next time without Howard’s personal vote to worry about.
Bishop means nothing – that hideous old man that the Nats are electing as leader will be the Deputy Opposition Leader – so any “gain” has been wiped out already.
313 & 315 – This is not necessarily bad for the LNP or even from Turnbull’s perspective – instead of Turnbull getting worn and tarnished during the tough, dead years, he can now sit back for for a while and jump into the leadership fresh and new with say 9 months to go before the next election. That’s if he uses the time in between to develop more support in his own ranks – instead of just in his own head. That’s the trouble with an ego as big as his, the opinions of lesser mortals don’t matter.
The other problem for Mal is that over the same period, the NSW uglies will be organising in the state branches and among the parliamentary party and will have a better puppet than the Monk, and firmer numbers, by the time the Admiral is due to be knifed.
Both Nelson and Bishop have their roots in South Australia. As do Gillard (well, Wales for four years) and Rein.
LTEP Turnbull has a better chance to challenge than Abbott, that’s a given.
The smart thing for the Libs would have been to parachute Mal Brough into Nelson’s seat but it’s too late now and they will just have to be content with a union boss instead of a much loved genius.
338
Flash
Yep, Roooody is about as palatable as a pork chop in the Middle Eastern place of worship (choose one or both!)
So, Huckabee to roll Mr DogFood (Romney)?
Hmm – so Truss will be the Deputy Opposition Leader? Interesting…
Oh yessss, Mackerrras – unerringly correct as always. The needed swing is academic – Nelson is unlikely to get it for whats left of the LNP. But someone had to take the first bite of the brown sanger…
Anyone else just clean up on Nelson? I made a cool $1k.
LTEP, lord nelson will manage that without malcolm’s help.
hey, rudd’s on news radio.
Lord Cockatoo Nelson takes over as Leader and Shadow Minister for Truth
Julie Googly Eyes Bishop takes over as Shadow Minister for Domination
Turnbull lost. Liberals screwed.
349
Inner Westie
Cracker!!!
So what is the actual job of Deputy Lib leader……..you get to push the tea trolley?
If Mal Brough was so loved how come the good folk of Longman chucked him out with a whopping swing in favour of a Labor hack with a beard?
You get to stab the leader in the back after 18 months.
Downer is so far the only Liberal leader to have never gone to election. Lets see if Nelson manages to join him.
Glen has this weird idea that if someone deserves to be re-elected, then they should be re-elected, and that it isn’t necessary to count any votes.
Patrons de PB, it’s come to our attention that some people are still reading posts from trolls, and worse, attempting to reason with them.
THIS SHOULD STOP IMMEDIATELY!
Rememer, once a troll, always a troll, and good arguments are but pearls before swine.
Don’t know why the Lib party hacks are all so happy with Bishop being deputy, she supports the old ways including supporting WorstChoices. The public will punish the Libs even further.
Most of the changes in the composition of the Rudd ministry seem to make sense (getting rid of dead wood like Laurie Ferguson is excellent), but I have to say that I’m bewildered at Bob McMullan and Kate Lundy being demoted. Both of them are *fantastic* MPs, and would have made excellent ministers.
361
Yoyoma – you were very smart, Nelson has always wanted to be the leader and he’s been in Parliament for 11 years, he was always going to win, its just that the media backed Turnbull. Gee if Turnbull had shut up this week he might be the leader lol!
The crow eaters have taken over Parliament Phil lol!
Viva Lord Nelson and Julie Thatcher Bishop.
The problem for the Libs is that Nelson and Bishop will never make the reforms the party needs for the long term. They’ll make minimun changes which won’t solve any of their problems.
Julia Gillard gets Education to go with Industrial Relations!
“steve Says:
November 29th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
336 [Govts OFTEN get swings towards them in the second term]
Just like Beattie in Queensland, a narrow win and massive majority since.”
- you could add to that Bracks who juuust squeaked into a minority govt and then eviscerated the Libs at the next election
Peter Garrett = Environment, Heritage and the Arts
Penny Wong = Climate Change and Water (responsible for international negotiations)
This will be Howard/Peacock all over again, except this time, we’ll have Nelson/Turnbull/Abbott.
Costello was the only one who would have been able to hold the party together, like Beazley did after 1996 and 2004, these three will only result in its division.
The Liberal Party will need to do some very hard thinking, Federally and at a State level to rebuild, but it will take a long time.
I suspect the next Liberal PM is not even in the parliament. He/she will probably enter in 2010, like Rudd and Gillard did in 1998.
I’m disappointed to hear that Nelson is the leader of the Libs. I’ll never forget his appalling Kokoda speech. Nelson also thinks teaching ‘Intelligent Design’ in schools is a good idea – this from when he was minister for education.
I suppose there’s some comfort knowing he is very unlikely to be primeminister. Those who take over a party after a loss rarely (ever?) become PM.
Kev says he’s taking Peter and Penny to Bali.. Sounds comical somehow.
Yoyama @ 361 – me too. Money for jam at those odds. Even got $15.50 for some of it against Nelson on Betfair. What a great punting election this has been. Great to win money off the misfortune of the conservatives – it adds that extra level of satisfaction you don’t get from the horses. The best for that feeling was Maxine.
Are Combet, Shorten and Maxine parliamentary secretaries?
The hack with a beard may soon be clean shaven (depending on his instrument).
Gillard in Education how surprising? Not
As IR is now largely deregulated and will largely stay deregulated, Gillard obviously wanted something in which she could really get stuck into the social engineering.
Lundy – going down, for mine that could only be topped if Belinda Neal lost Robertson in late counting.
Oh well let the comedy begin.
Isn’t Rudd going to love fixing the Hospital funding while Union Boss Nelson looks on from the wrong side of the despatch box.
Yay, Nicola Roxon stays in Health.
I’m really disappointed to see Nelson get up. What were they thinking? Turnbull might be a risk, but he was a fresh face, and somebody who could lead the Liberals back towards the centre, with fresh policies on the republic, aboriginal issues, IR and so on. I would have taken a serious interest in the Liberals under Turnbull, but Nelson is just a pompous prat. I think they got the deputy right, although I’m not sure if I feel this way just because she is reasonably articulate and presents well, I’m less sure if there is any substance there. Gillard vs Bishop will be an interesting battle.
Things are looking a lot brighter for Labor in Herbert and Bowman, while Robertson and Corangamite are safe, and Dickson is back in play. I feel nervous about Flynn and Solomon though.
Shouldn’t we trust a Doctor to fix the hospital system over somebody who was referred to as Dr Death?
He used to wear an earring and his brother died from AIDS. Been married three times doancherno. Couldn’ he keep ‘em happy? No smoke without fire I always say.
“Roxon in health? That’s bullshit” – Tony Abbott.
Turn it up, Glen.
Nicola is my new favourite Labor politician!
Steven Smith in Foreign Affairs.
Jeez won’t Bill Heffernan be spewing when he finds out that a Chinese lesbian is the minister for Climate and Water!!
With any luck, he’ll resign from the shock.
390 [Shouldn’t we trust a Doctor to fix the hospital system over somebody who was referred to as Dr Death?]
No, He’s Nelson’s his chance and failed that is why the people voted for change. They want results not years of neglect which the Liberals delivered to health with their perpetual underfunding.
Im pretty sure if Dutton holds on he’ll get a good front bench position.
Bishop will probably take shadow treasurer unless they give it to Mr. T
Abbott will probably chose what he wants after all his support must have tipped Nelson across the line.
Glen, which seat did Jack Kevorkian win? (Wait a minute … Kev … orkian …)
Glen, noone cares about the Shadow Ministry positions.
mcclelland – A-G.
excellent
stephen smith – FA
I have to say, I’m glad Robb didn’t get deputy. He still has to answer for his attempt to say 13 ALP candidates were ineligible to stand, and for the Lindsay affair when he went on Lateline.
Glen, your side should promote Bruce Billson, Greg Hunt and Tony Smith.
LTEP you did when Labor was in Opposition, cmon LTEP this is all we have now lol
McClelland puts me to sleep, which probably means he’s a good choice for AG
Half of Parliamentary Secretaries “newly elected to Parliament”.
Well Robb will get a senior position but yes those moderate Libs from Victoria should get a go i reckon after all we need to build up support in Victoria its a wasteland for us atm.
Roy & H.G. are going to LOVE Kate Ellis as Minister for Sport!
McKew gets Parliamentary Secretary for Early Childhood Education and Childcare
Bahahahahahahahaha!!! Nelson!!!
What will Turnbull do now if Nelson won’t apologise, ratify Kyoto or allow Workchoices to be repealed?!
Oh my, with Malcolm and Tony in the background, Brendan will be able to feel very safe indeed!
I think we are forgetting about an important political issue in debating the Liberal Party leadership – political cartoons and satire! Who would Alan Moir rather draw – Nelson or Turnbull? Will we see them draw Nelson as a captain on a burning deck, or a doctor standing over a deceased patient? Or will it be Turnbull, martini in hand, dodging knives from Abbott? What about Deputy – The Eyes Have It (Bishop) versus the imposing Chris Pyne? So many good options.
For that matter, the Chaser team will be affected too. Shouldn’t these affected parties get a vote in the process? I would certainly trust the Chaser’s expert opinion on who is the best Liberal Party leader for the sake of comedy. C’mon Liberals – embrace true democracy and give the people who really matter a vote!
Combet gets Parliamentary Secretary to Defence.
Andos, so that means Combet, Shorten, McKew, Kelly, Mark Dreyfuss get jobs?
Wow politics is crazy we have a wannabe Liberal as head of the ALP and a former ALP member and AMA President leading the Liberals.
Is this bizzaro world or what?
maxine – parl sec (early childhood edn and childcare). yay!
greg combet – parl sec – defence
mike kelly – parl sec – defence
Kelly also Secretary to Defence.
Woo ! Or should I say Ha! Ha!
Go Nelson!
As in Nelson Muntz – school bully at Springfield Elementary in the Simpson’s.
Neslon will keep you wandering in the desert where you belong, you right wing maddies and bullying baddies!
No, Labor is in government, Liberal is in opposition. We have just returned to the normal world after 11.5 years in bizarro world.
Shorten: Secretary to Families, Housing, Family Services and Indigenous Affairs.
Tony Burke is an odd choice for Primary Industries: has he ever been on a farm?
I think the Shorten and Burke appointments are interesting. The real potential future threats to Rudd on the right kept at the most appropriate distance possible.
Try this:
Google Julie Bishop
but beware:
She ‘googles’ back!
Who’s in charge of the Pork barrel, I mean Minister for Industry and/or road funding.
HH, now my pick for the Minister of Administrative Affairs is ………. Simon Crean.
Ferguson gets “Shadow Minister for Multicultural Affairs” – bit of a Freudian Slip there from K Rudd, you’re not in opposition any more!
Glen, Crean got Trade.
Crean got trade.
The problem with Garrett in Environment is nothing to do with his ability, and I agree that criticism of him in this regard has mostly been unfair. The problem is that if he is continually rolled on Environment issues – and it doesn’t appear that a Rudd government is going to be a very deep shade of green – then the Garrett ‘brand’ is devalued.
Okay… WTF, 2 secretaries for defence? Is Labor shaping up for some big challenges within the ADF?
420
Howard Hater
That’s a promotion for a damn good performance. Tony Burke is not a show pony and has that excellent laconic manner which is respected in the bush.
You don’t see the joke, obviously you haven’t watched Yes Minister…
When’s the next poll?
Any ideas why McMullan got dropped? Could it be that he will actually be speaker?
Kevin now trying to get out of his Affirmative Action responsibilities by saying he is proud of having 7 women in cabinet…
Denis Napthine, Robert Doyle, Ted Baillieu: all visionary statesman worthy of a global stage. Victoria was too parochial for their dignified and intelligent leadership.
4 in Cabinet; 7 in ministries
Who is Immigration Minister?
Dave from Albury will you still be on the AC Nielsen on-line poll panel?
No doubt you will be giving the thumbs down and thumps up to the Government and Opposition line ups?
Chris Evans.
428 I think Garrett will get to play a key role with the targets to be set next year for cutting greenhouse gases and promoting renewable energy.
Howard Hater, Senator Chris Evans, Leader of the Government in the Senate
Can someone tell me who is Chris Evans is?
Thanks guys!
Stephen Conroy and Crean: I would have dropped both of them!
432 – I thought when Labor won that McMullan would be a good choice as Speaker.
conroy min for broadband
Conroy in. Boradband and Digital Economy?
Is this one of the first times a Victorian Lib has not been in a main leadership role?
If that’s that case, then it says many a thing about the pathetic excuse for a party the Victorian Libs are.
Dario (#432),
I would like to think that McMullan will get Speaker – if he doesn’t, there can be only one reason a man of his intellect and experience was dropped……..ffffffffactionalism!
I missed Chris Bowen. What did he get?
When is Lord Nelson going to hold a press conference?
“Hi I’m Brendan I’m from New South Wales i ride i motorbike and im here to help.”
I’m actually kind of surprised that Kevin didn’t name himself “Minister for Everything”.
A-C, WA currently has the same number of Members and senators as Victoria so I think they managed to shoulder them out of the way.
Indigenous Affairs?
fagin – jenny macklin
conroy’s kid suffers from ADSL and has to take pills for it.
wire is it so
A-C – Rudd is smart enough to know that he needs to allow time for himself to keep a tight rein over these guys. He wants to run a very tight ship and giving himself too much to do would undermine that objective.
anything on Minister for Cows, sheep and wheat (agriculture)??
449 [When is Lord Nelson going to hold a press conference?]
Why would Nelson hold a press conference? Who wants to be told bad news?
Predictions: Who are the weakest links in the new Labor ministry? Who will mess up first? Who will lose his/her job first?
I just hope Nelson and Turnbull aren’t the Howard/Peacock of the 1980s.
That we don’t need.
EdenMonaro Resi – Tony Burke.
Flash,
Thats easy
McClelland and Garrett. Note that he (KR) has given others overlapping responsibilities with theirs.
Stage left: By gee, Huckabee is impressive. He could beat Hilary. (CNN, Republican debate)
I mean what is the difference between Minister for Home affairs and AG?
459 It will be Abbott/Nelson where the tension will be greatest. It is always the person closest to the Leader who is most likely to be the underminer.
But Abbott will never have the numbers, all Abbott could do is threaten to remove him for Malcolm though i doubt that.
non-rural/regional southwest Sydney Tony Burke? ummmm….
Re: Warren Truss – the Nats might as well have elected Professor Farnsworth from “Futurama” as their leader!
(For those that don’t get that – in the series Farnsworth is 160 years old)
A-C Says:
November 29th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
“Is this one of the first times a Victorian Lib has not been in a main leadership role?
If that’s that case, then it says many a thing about the pathetic excuse for a party the Victorian Libs are?”
Robert Ray was suggesting on Sat night, that it is the VIC Libs (ie Kroger) who will be the one’s who need to fix the Liberal party’s problems. The NSW Libs are in the hands of the rabid right.
Mike Huckabee was just asked about Nasa space programme.. He said “Perhaps Hilary could be on the first rocket to Mars”. Not bad.
Turnbull is the sort of O-L that would only shine during recession, I believe.
Otherwise, he seems too aloof and arrogant – I can’t imagine ‘battlers’ warming to him.
Burke in Primary industry – what’s that about?
Just what the nation needs …
“Dr Nelson was the first education minister to exercise his ministerial power to stymie projects from receiving funding through the ARC, even though they had been approved by the council after extensive selection by experts in their fields.”
Brendan and the GDR
Amazingly enough, John Murphy from Lowe got a Parliamentary Secretaryship. I have to admit, even I’m amazed at this – he must have voted for Rudd in the leadership challenge last year…
A-C, you think the battlers will warm to Nelson? This is a genuine question…
465 Costello never had the numbers either but he shadowed Howard like a rabid dog until the end. Nelson should just announce the date today that he intends to hand over to Abbott and be done with it. When that date arrives Nelson should hand over.
@ 459 Glen Says:
Some believe that the Libs will be irrelevant by 2010 anyway.
In today’s SMH pschologist Steve Biddulph writes:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/11/28/1196036982629.html
466 – iirc John Kerin was Member for Werriwa and was Minister for Agriculture under Hawke. He went to an Agricultural HS though.
I reckon Education will be handed off to Maxine after a year or two
How did Macklin get FACSIA? Surely there were people better qualified for that position…
Sure Tony Burke’s from a city, but what Labor member with a rural background could they give Primary Industry to?
*Education, Employment and Workplace relations: Julia Gillard
*Treasurer: Wayne Swan
*Finance: Lindsay Tanner
*Foreign affairs: Stephen Smith
*Defence: Joel Fitzgibbon
*Attorney-General: Robert McClelland
*Cabinet secretary: John Faulkner
*Health and ageing: Nicola Roxon
*Families, Housing, Community services and Indigenous affairs: Jenny Macklin
*Environment, Heritage and The Arts: Peter Garrett
*Climate change and Water: Penny Wong
*Trade: Simon Crean
*Infrastructure, Transport, Regional development and Local government: Anthony Albanese
*Resources, Energy and Tourism: Martin Ferguson
*Agriculture, fisheries and forestry: Tony Burke
*Human services: Joseph Ludwig
*Innovation, Industry, Science and research: Kim Carr
*Home affairs : Bob Debus
*Broadband communications and digital economy: Stephen Conroy
*Defence, Science and Personnel: Warren Snowdon
*Workforce participation: Brendan O’Connor
*Superannuation and Corporate law: Nick Sherry
*Small business: Craig Emerson
*Ageing: Justine Elliot
*Housing and Status of women: Tanya Plibersek
*Youth and sport: Kate Ellis
*Veteran affairs: Alan Griffin
Parliamentary secretaries:
*Secretary to the Prime Minister, Early childhood education and childcare: Maxine McKew
*Parliamentary secretary to the Prime Minister: Anthony Byrne
*Defence procurement: Greg Combet
*Defence: Mike Kelly
*Infrastructure – Northern and regional Australia: Gary Gray
*Disabilities and children services: Bill Shorten
*Multicultural affairs and settlement programs:Laurie Ferguson
*International development assistance: Bob McMullan
*Pacific relations Duncan Kerr
*Social inclusion: Ursula Stephens
*Trade: John Murphy
Suspect that Macklin won’t be there for too long.
# 476
Steve Biddulph, is a moron.
“*Broadband communications and digital economy: Stephen Conroy”
LOL! what a complete load of tokenistic bullshit.
Matt D,
I would have thought Livermore in Capricornia would have been decent enough.
I’m guessing Burke is holding Agriculture temporarily until Elliott gets it (or Combet).
I got 10-1 on Nelson this morning
Thanks William.
He won’t be happy…
Irons up by 146 in Swan. Cheeseman up by 760 in Corangamite. Corangamite is looking increasingly safe…
I will organise a donation shortly.
So who is in Coonan’s old job… is that Conroy?
how about immigration?? is it part of home affairs???
Housing and Status of women
Superannuation and Corporate law
Broadband communications and digital economy
With the enlargement of the public service, Sir Humphrey Appleby would be proud, well done KR !
Dario (#481)- so the newcomers to get Parl Sec jobs were Shorten, Combet, McKew, Gary Gray, Mike Kelly and Bob Debus – is that right.
Can i ask the source of your list?
Peter Lindsay is just 10 votes behind the ALP in Herbert with 87% counted.
Yes.
Given the resutl was 42-45, when the new senators arrive will they hold another ballot?
That’s essentially a tie. There’s going to be some fun times ahead.
492 With the enlargement of the public service, Sir Humphrey Appleby would be proud, well done KR !
How many ministers did Howard have Glen?
that Biddulph article competely avoids the possibility that parties these days adapt (ie they’ll move to centre rather than into the wilderness).
Gillard in education is very interesting…espcially when you think about the things that Nelson did to it you mention inner westie…any ideas on how she views higher education? can we expect to be ignored or given platitudes?
#9 I always thought that John Hewson was the Libs Mark Latham!
A-C @ 443 – i was thinking exactly the same thing about steve biddulph. against childcare centres.
459 Glen
The real battle for the soul of the Liberal party is between Abbott and Turnbull. Poor old Brendan is “piggy in the middle” standing there helplessly as the salvos fly overhead. Eventually one of the real contenders will get the numbers and simply dispense with Brendan.
So we still don’t know what Chris Bowen has gotten?
Rudd didn’t mention an Assistant Treasurer, but he said that there was a Cabinet of 20 (suggesting that Bowen is in Cabinet).
Donday (498) – Biddulph is a child psychologist – buggered if i know why anyone thinks he knows politics (people, please refrain from the predictable – all pollies are like kids gag).
Financial services? Presumably with Swan and Sherry?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/29/2105169.htm
Can anyone direct me to a definitive list of the new ministry – I’m hearing that McKew is parl sec to the P.M – not Byrne.
Glen
Even if Lindsay wins, he isn’t going to afford that awfully big office he has in the new heart of Townsville (aka right next to Stockland). He will disappear in to obscurity.
If Colbran gets up, he will make every Maccas his own office.
IN other news, Julia Gillard was looking forward to her next sleep being sometime in 2020. Education AND industrial relations? Keeps her pretty busy I would guess.
The current defence minister is obviously a stopgap with two ridiculously qualified people as his parl secs, and Maxine has gotten the reward she deserves – Full time access to the prime ministers ear and two parl sec positions. I hope by 2010 one of the two defence parliament secs has been promoted to minister, and Maxine has gotten the ministry of her choice.
Optimist, there are two parl secs to the PM, two to the defence minister and two to the foreign affairs minister.
Chris Bowen is Assistant Treasurer, Minister for Competition Policy & Consumer Affairs – ALP folk just sent me a full list
Charlie – cheers.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/29/2105169.htm
She will get Education
Oh no: Is this what we voted for?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22840697-5012863,00.html
506 here it is (if you can trust the Oz as a definitive provider of anything)
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22841904-11949,00.html
Emily, is that a Cabinet position? If not, what is the 20th Cabinet spot? Rudd mentioned that there were 20. Maybe Emerson?
514 – Nice to see the author didn’t have the balls to own up to that article. No mention that the lateness was to allow the Lib leadership announcement to occur.
Charlie, on this list Bowen’s in the Outer Ministry.
The 20 in cabinet are: Rudd, Gillard, Evans, Swan, Faulkner, Crean, Smith, Fitzgibbon, Roxon, Maklin, Tanner, Albo, Conroy, Kim Carr, Penny W, Garrett, Robert Mc, Joe Ludwig, Burke, Martin Ferguson.
Yeah it’s a pretty terrible article, I was actually quite surprised at how unprofessional it is.
Thanks for that, Emily.
513. What a stupid article. How long would you expect it to take to announce the entire Cabinet, outer ministry and parliamentary secretaries?
20 in Cabinet. Everybody wins a prize I guess.
Gillard is minister for Education, as well as IR
w00t
ESJ,
That’s the same size as the last Howard cabinet (I think).
Thank you for all your support on this forum.
Can I just say that there is no such thing as victory in opposition.
People should not be thinking in terms of “conventional victories or success” in Opposition.
Success essentially means that the Liberal Party, supported by its own Right wing Christian factions, will be able to provide protection to its own people for the foreseeable future.
It will, however, also be a party that will continue to be characterised by degrees of sectarian and other violence and internal wet insurgents who so desperately want to make sure that we remain in Opposition. They will do everything to frustrate and undermine our stay the course message, which has brought us so much success in the past. Why would you risk change and change for change’s sake?
Ladies and Gentlemen I can guarantee that We of the Liberal Party of Australia are not for turning.
John Faulkner is also the Vice President of the Executive Council.
Yep, and highly regarded by the industry. AFAIK, he had no farming experience, though he did work for ABARE before going into politics, but that was as an economist.
Having direct personal experience in a portfolio is not necessarily an asset, especially as one as diverse as PI because of the temptation to believe you have a deeper understanding than than you actually do. An ex chook farmer is more likely to be a hinderance than a help when it comes to matters related to wool, sugar, or fishing, for example.
In the same vein I wouldn’t want to see Kelly eventually get Defence. Ex ADF defence ministers have generally not been a success. In fact even making Kelly a parl. sec. for it is a mistake, IMHO. He might have been better supporting the A-G with the intention of giving him the job in a few years. I’m personally disappointed that McClelland is the A-G because it pretty much rules out any action on war crimes and probably also AWB and any other former government abuses than may be uncovered.
Colbran is only 10 votes ahead in Herbert.
And hopefully Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports.
http://www.liberal.org.au/images/NelsonBishop.jpg they look a good team if you ask me
Brendan, have you changed your mind on why we’re still in Iraq? What is your party’s policy on Iraq now? And how much a hold of the Liberal party do you have, a quarter, half, three quarters or full Nelson?
I think Labor can forget about Herbert: too many defence personnel voting Liberal again.
527 A great team for opposition glen, I’d give them 15 years there myself. Just never let them near government.
No, none for the opposition.
Monotone Nelson and Deathstare Bishop. Wow this will be a fun 3 years…
506 Labor have had a Dept of Employment, Education and Training in the past. Different emphasis to Liberals of the role of workplace relations.
Well, I remember wh