Federal Coalition. Today’s Liberal leadership contest is of course being amply covered elsewhere. I will say only that the 6-to-1 odds on Brendan Nelson from SportingBet look remarkably attractive from what I’m hearing. Warren Truss is set to take the Nationals leadership unopposed following the withdrawal of Peter McGauran. No by-elections loom at this stage, but I suspect they will be happening sooner or later in Higgins, Mayo, Berowra and perhaps Lyne.
Queensland Liberals. The state Liberal Party has been plunged into a constitutional crisis by a four-all leadership deadlock between incumbent Bruce Flegg and challenger Tim Nicholls. Flegg and his three supporters voted down a leadership spill motion yesterday, prompting state president Warwick Parer to declare he must “do the honourable thing and stand down”. The two groups might end up holding separate party room meetings today, each claiming official status. Nicholls is associated with the Santo Santoro/Michael Caltabiano faction of the Queensland Liberal Party, and is supported in the party room by John-Paul Langbroek (Surfers Paradise), Jann Stuckey (Currumbin) and Steve Dickson (Kawana). Flegg represents the moderate “western suburbs” faction and is supported by Mark McArdle (Caloundra), Ray Stevens (Robina) and Glen Elmes (Noosa), at least for now: the Courier-Mail reports Flegg’s supporters are united by animus towards the Santoro faction, and would be willing to back a candidate other than Flegg to keep Nicholls out.
Western Australian Liberals. It had long been understood that the looming federal election was the only thing preventing a challenge against Liberal leader Paul Omodei, and the talk is that a spill will be on next week. On Tuesday the ABC reported that Omodei was about to be tapped on the shoulder and asked to make way for Vasse MP Troy Buswell. Omodei – a dangerous man to be around at times – today told the media any colleagues who did so would be “very lucky if they don’t get a good right hook, and they’ll be lucky to get out of the room standing up”. Like his Queensland counterpart Tim Nicholls, Buswell is a first-term MP. Meantime, former leader Colin Barnett has announced he will not seek re-election for his seat of Cottesloe at the state election due in February 2009. Barnett has told The West Australian he has thought better of retiring immediately, because it “wasn’t the right thing to do and a lot of people in my electorate want me to stay”. His enemies in the Liberal Party say he’ s only staying to block any move to recruit Julie Bishop to the state party leadership by having her take his seat at a by-election.
Northern Territory ALP. Clare Martin and her deputy Syd Stirling have both pulled up stumps and moved to the back bench. The Northern Territory News reports that leadership rival Paul Henderson delivered Martin a “gentle ultimatum” a few weeks ago. Martin accepted this without demur as she had lost her enthusiasm for the job following the federal government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities. Mutterings first emerged last November that Martin’s inaction in indigenous affairs had cost her the support of the most of the Aboriginal members of caucus, and that a challenge by Henderson would win the support of 10 out of 19 party room members. Martin and Stirling have both vowed to remain in parliament until the election due in mid-2009, so it does not appear we will be treated to by-elections in Fannie Bay and Nhulunbuy.
In late election counting news, Labor’s Jason Young is back in front of Andrew Laming in Bowman, if only by 21 votes. The pattern of voting in 2004 suggests Young has cleared his biggest hurdle now that pre-polls have been counted (mostly if not entirely), and should be able to keep his nose in front on remaining postal (where he has performed strongly so far), absent and provisional votes. In Herbert, Defence Force votes have slashed Labor’s lead from 528 to 36: the outlook appears better for Labor’s George Colbran now those are out of the way, but like Bowman it’s still close enough that anything could happen. Liberal member Peter Dutton’s lately acquired lead continues to widen in Dickson, and the Liberals are home and hosed in La Trobe and Macarthur. The only reason McEwen is not on the list is those votes we were told about which were wrongly sent to Scullin, on which I have heard nothing further. Defence Force votes have cut Labor candidate Damian Hale’s lead over CLP member Dave Tollner in Solomon from 718 votes to 427, but he should still get up unless there’s a surprise lurking in the remaining pre-polls. The trend in Swan contains to favour Liberal candidate Steve Irons, now 136 votes in front, although there will be very little in it either way. Anyone wishing to discuss these results is encouraged to use the dedicated threads linked to in the sidebar.
A couple of other seats worth noting. The Greens camp has been talking up a possible late-count boilover in O’Connor, where Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner could theoretically overtake Labor’s Dominic Rose and surf over Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey on preferences. At the moment Gardiner is some way behind Rose, 20.42 per cent to 18.37 per cent. It is argued that most of the 9.28 per cent vote that went to various minor candidates will go to Gardiner as preferences, although a good many went straight to Tuckey in 2004. The other question is how many of the 6.68 per cent who voted Greens followed the card and gave their second preferences to the Nationals. If the combined 15.96 per cent from minor parties delivers the Nationals 2.06 per cent more than Labor, Gardiner might be in business. In 2004 there was an 18.8 per cent minor party vote that split 7.8 per cent Labor, 5.7 per cent Nationals and 5.3 per cent, but the Greens were running split-ticket how-to-vote cards as opposed to their direct recommendation to the Nationals this time.
A late-count surprise has been a narrowing of Labor’s margin in Flynn, where postal votes have split over 70-30 in favour of the Nationals. This is because postal voting is a favoured method of voters in isolated rural areas, although the size of the gap is still a surprise. Whether or not the Nationals are still a show depends on whether there are more postals to come. Today’s Courier-Mail states that “postal votes were counted today”, which sounds like it means they were all counted, in which case the remaining 590-vote Labor lead should be enough. Pre-polls have in fact been running quite heavily in Labor’s favour, and absent votes are unlikely to buck the overall trend.
Corangamite is now on the AEC “close seats” list with pre-polls and postals having favoured the Liberals 57-43, cutting the Labor lead from 2217 to 767. However, there should be few if any remaining pre-polls and postals, and Labor did quite a lot better on the uncounted absent and provisional votes in 2004.
There has been no significant progress in Senate counting this week, but it might yet be worth keeping an eye on the Australian Capital Territory. The Liberal vote is clear of a 33.3 per cent quota on 34.1 per cent, which will need to drop at least 1.5 per cent if the Greens are to sneak through for an upset. At the 2004 election it actually increased by 0.22 per cent.
1,082 Comments
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So Julia Gillard is the new Russ Hinze, Min for Everything.
(Nb i’m not being ugly or misogynistic, even if Big Russ was that and more!)
It will be fascinating to follow her already quite stellar career. People seem so polarised by her: and not necessarily on party/ideological lines. Personal I think both poles over-estimate her. She’s not haridan, nor saviour, not a bogan nor a Godiva. Just a fair political operator, with a decent heart but a huge ambition, like 75% of those who enter politics.
Libs big movement since Sat night
approx 5% of the total vote has been counted ( 677,187 2PP votes counted)
LCP have gained 2PP 53.20% of these votes to Labors 46.80%
which has caused Labors 2PP to drop from 53.41% to 52.99%
and the swing to drop from 6.15% to 5.73 %
THIS MOVEMENT IS ON ONLY 5% of the total vote since counted
there is another 19.23% to count
A helpful suggestion for Nelson and Turnbull:
Given the divisions in the Liberal Party over several issues, I have a fair and democratic sugegstion for how Labor can exploit, oops, I mean handle, the problem sensitively. For the key pieces of legislation that deal with the difficult issues, particularly Climate Change and WorkChoices, introduce the bills granting members a conscience vote. So if any Labor members want to vote against a bill to ratify the Kyoto protocol they can. Similarly, if Malcom Turnbull and Brendan Nelson want to vote in different ways on Kyoto, they can. I think we can be confident that Labor’s legislation will still pass. For the Libs, it should help clarify things.
With the demise of the Rodent, we need a new nick-name for the Liberals. Instead of calling them Team Rodent, lets change their name to “Team Unity”.
“ugly, nasty, spiteful and utterly lacking in any semblance of humour or goodwill.”
Well, I’m certainly ugly, and I’m also nasty and spiteful, and I’m utterly lacking in goodwill when it comes to Liberals. So I guess it’s only my feeble attempts at humour that save me from William’s bin.
The Liberal party has no credibility because of their actions and this is not good for democracy!
There needs to be a viable alternative for the people at the next election or Rudd will just be the same as Howard in the next decade….meanwhile Rome burns…..
Christ who is doing the counting? Jack Newton?
Big, big thanks to Mr Bowe for his grand efforts over the past few months. I’ve never been so well informed (or entertained!)
You da man, William!
Did anyone collect on the 6-1 odds for Brendan Nelson? Curious minds want to know lol ……
Wow, in Ron Brown, we have found someone even more alarmist than LTEP…
#723 William Bowe “Steven Kaye has been put in the moderation bin for his ugly misogynistic attack on Julia Gillard. I would much prefer it if he stopped coming here.”
Hear, hear. I come to this blog to be informed. To follow well reasoned political arguements whether they be of the right or the left or even the centre. I don’t want to read irrelevant crap.
So Steven Kaye let put this as politely as possible. F*ck off you moronic w*nker.
looks like the ALP covered all the bases as they have registered:
abbottfacts.com
bishopfacts.com
turbullfacts.com
nelsonfacts.com
guess that they have all the potential leadership scare campaigns covered for the next few months anyway
I have to admit that I thought the Libs would have chosen Turnbull as leader. But this was based on them doing what was the most sensible thing to do for their better interests.
I should have known better. As has been the case ever since 2004, the Liberals have developed a knack for sabotaging their electoral prospects.
Ron Brown is even more deluded than Nostrodamus and Steven Kaye LOL
Quit while you’re ahead, Vote1Maxine. Julie, I collected $150 from the 6-1 on Nelson, and am mortified to discover it could have been 9-1 if I’d gone with Betfair. Noocat, you’ve hit on something there: punters assumed the Liberals would behave sensibly. Now they know better.
Good on you William
I have never put political bets on ever before, prior to this election and after making only $11 on the deal [5 individual seat bets], I will stick to AFL betting exclusively for awhile 
Btw, have those missing votes in McEwen been counted yet?
I’ll stick to Rio Tinto.
I think the reason Nelson was chosen was much more practical and common sense than most would think. The Libs still haven’t figured out and/or came to terms with “why” they lost the election. Clinging to the policies which got them voted OUT isn’t going to cut it in the long term. Turnbull laid his cards on the table and said he was for signing Kyoto and for saying “Sorry” (for starters). Correct me if I am wrong, but I don’t believe Nelson laid his cards on the table at all or if he did, he was much more circumspect about it than Turnbull. Seems to me that a party which still wants to cling to the remnants of the Howard era for now chose the leader who was more conservative and/or less radical on policies. So using the maxim that “less is more” Nelson got himself elected to the job.
Glen 727,
Radio Berlin (EStJ) is going off the air at midnight on Saturday, I guess that makes you a werewolf?
Cheers,
EStJ
Petro Georgio would have been the best bet. Wasn’t “must have spine” on the job description?
Julie,
I was lucky enough to get $20 on Nelson shortly before Sportingbet suspended betting at around 10am: easiest $100 I have ever made!
Thanks for the tip, Mr Bowe!
Nelson wasn’t my fave education minister, and his tacking to the centre-right of his party rivals Gillard’s transformation.
But I feel a bit sorry for him.
A mere 3 vote majority in his caucus, the bulk of his support surely coming from hard conservative resisters of change, and that slim majority explicable because some would simply want Turnbull to prove himself in Parliament a little longer and to be kept powder dry for after the next election.
Nelson’ll have a privately resourced, articulate rival Turnbull down his neck from early in the life of the new Parliament, in a position to bring on a spill whenever it suits him.
Full Nelson is NOT electable. He is the current version of Bill Sneden. Now we all know what happened to Bill Sneden!! At least we know he (BS that is) died very very happy.
Well!
761
The Age has an article and link to http://www.nelsonfacts.com
Someone’s been doing their homework!!
Ron Brown, you’re assuming the total will be 100%… it won’t be. Haven’t we gone over this a few times?
The ALP campaign machine rolls on…
Given the vote I think he is the Half Nelson.
KT, yu are pathetic and get back to work!!!
The Finnigans, my AWA stipulates I can have a break at 6:30 pm after ten hours of hard labour.
KT, AWA? WTF, AWA is kaput!!
Ron – The AEC’s final “Turnout” figures end up in the low-to-mid 90’s, typically. CHeck 2004’s VTR here: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseResultsMenu-12246.htm
Flynn: can we expect all the postals to be returned? Judging by Hinkler in 2004 the total of declaration, absent and pre-poll should be slightly weaker for Labor than their booth vote which should be enough to keep Labor ahead.
$777, OK half Nelson. He is my local member. Since there has been a big swing to ABC according to Kerry, do you think Juanita Phillips would be interested in the next election to do a McKew here at Bradfield?
Glen. I admire your guts in sticking to your cause. This will be a long, hard road for you and your ilk. I wish you all the best in bringing the Liberal
Party back into the real world. We need an effective Opposition but I trust you will forgive me if I snigger at the appointment of B. Nelson.
In the conservation of 1880s sandstock brickwork it is common to use a “sacrificial” lime mortar mix. This will break down over the seasons and will require constant monitoring and renewal. There is a tendency to “re-point” the structure with modern products, which generally has the effect of undermining the intregrity of the structure. It appears to me on preliminary observations, that your structure has undergone inappropriate renovations using stong concrete. The structure is badly damaged, Glen. Raze it and re-build.
Cheers, Derek
William says (736)
“It is indeed regrettable Glen, and I wish to God there were more conservatives here like you and ESJ. Unfortunately, so many of them have been in the mould of Snoopy, Cerdic Conan and Steven Kaye: ugly, nasty, spiteful and utterly lacking in any semblance of humour or goodwill”.
William, you could also have included the lovely Isabella, who always seems intent on spewing out as much invective as she can.
As odd as it looks to those of us on the outside Nelson had the advantage of courting the backbenches over several years, a skill that Malcolm has not mastered and I bet that was the decisive factor (I did bet too – sadly not 9:1 – I think at 4.75!). It will be interesting to see how the rest of the shadow portfolios are allocated, some obvious starters from the moderate camp (eg Marise Payne) might still get outplayed by the old boys yet. On another topic, I know Kalgoorlie was mistakenly called early on the ABC, but that swing to Sharon Thiel looks very impressive I reckon considering the rest of WA – was she a better performer for the ALP or were there more factors at play? Was Jon Ford involved in the campaign any WA folk?
Further to Derek 784;
Yes Glen, you and your elk will have to work your asses off if you want to get anything above the donkey vote in 2011. All you Libs will have to pony up more resources and talk yourselves hoarse, cosying up to the media hacks and nagging business constantly for donations, or its off to the glue factory with the lot of you!
Already your party room has started to buck against the need to reign in the rightwingers by putting nelson and Bishop in the saddle – Lightfoot used to refer to Bishop as ‘a great ride’, but I don’t think he was talking about her sulky. Nay, it was after inspecting her crop back in 2003…
William, or other psephs, am I reading the AEC’s returns on Bennelong correctly to mean just about everything that needs to be counted, has been counted?
Sorry, specifically the scrutineer vote declaration bit, where it looked like there were only c. 3,000 still uncounted.
Well Glen its not going to be easy. SBS and ABC news both featured stock footage of an angry young Brendan Nelson (while still a Labor member) saying that he had always voted Labor. A gem.
Still, Nelson is on the 7.30 report right now and sounding human and intelligent. If he can stop the fighting and prevent the Liberal vote going backwards in the next term he will have done a pretty good job. He is sensibly letting some of O’Brien’s tougher questions go through to the keeper.
Amazing how high the informal vote is in Bennelong is. I guess some wouldn’t vote for Howard but could not bring themselves to vote Labor either.
YAY! I took and punk and put 30 bucks on Nelson to win….Turned into $150..awesome…Makes the victory even better…Libs have no hope!
For those of you who are wondering hown many postal votes, absent and provisional votes remain to be counted have a look at the last election results. As a rough rule of thumb the total for each class of vote is the same from election to election. In other words if there were 8000 postal votes last election expext much the same this time and the same goes for absent and provisionals.
ron brown, do you realise how PATHETIC you sound. Guess what, the elections OVER, your side LOST.
Watching Nelson on the 7:30 Report. Can I just say to the Liberal Party, “Thank You”. Rudd could not have expected a house warming present of such magnitude.
Lord Nelson on 7.30 Report just regurgitating the same old lines showing this lot will need those next couple of terms (only that if they’re lucky) in the wilderness to demonstrate a capacity to learn. Getting ready to hold the line on serfchoices and ‘not my fault so I’m not saying sorry’…..enjoy those couple of years before Malcolm gets the knife out Bren.
“790
Socrates Says:
November 29th, 2007 at 7:41 pm
Well Glen its not going to be easy. SBS and ABC news both featured stock footage of an angry young Brendan Nelson (while still a Labor member) saying that he had always voted Labor. A gem.”
That’s not the one where he shouts ‘We’re coming back!’ is it?
worst freakin Defence Minister in many a govt BTW…
The Queensland Liberal Party State Council meets in about half an Hour to try to sort out the mess created by the Santoro faction bunging on a leadership spill without having the numbers. This is despite assurances for months that they did have the numbers for a challenge.
According to them it was just a matter of get the Federal Election out of the way and the coup was on. Something weird has happened and the numbers are not there, so they are back to a four all split. Scarily similar to how even the Federal Liberal Party divided behind Nelson today.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/liberals-hands-are-tied-flegg/2007/11/29/1196037059023.html
Nelson on with Kerry at the moment. White noise.
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