Federal Coalition. Today’s Liberal leadership contest is of course being amply covered elsewhere. I will say only that the 6-to-1 odds on Brendan Nelson from SportingBet look remarkably attractive from what I’m hearing. Warren Truss is set to take the Nationals leadership unopposed following the withdrawal of Peter McGauran. No by-elections loom at this stage, but I suspect they will be happening sooner or later in Higgins, Mayo, Berowra and perhaps Lyne.
Queensland Liberals. The state Liberal Party has been plunged into a constitutional crisis by a four-all leadership deadlock between incumbent Bruce Flegg and challenger Tim Nicholls. Flegg and his three supporters voted down a leadership spill motion yesterday, prompting state president Warwick Parer to declare he must “do the honourable thing and stand down”. The two groups might end up holding separate party room meetings today, each claiming official status. Nicholls is associated with the Santo Santoro/Michael Caltabiano faction of the Queensland Liberal Party, and is supported in the party room by John-Paul Langbroek (Surfers Paradise), Jann Stuckey (Currumbin) and Steve Dickson (Kawana). Flegg represents the moderate “western suburbs” faction and is supported by Mark McArdle (Caloundra), Ray Stevens (Robina) and Glen Elmes (Noosa), at least for now: the Courier-Mail reports Flegg’s supporters are united by animus towards the Santoro faction, and would be willing to back a candidate other than Flegg to keep Nicholls out.
Western Australian Liberals. It had long been understood that the looming federal election was the only thing preventing a challenge against Liberal leader Paul Omodei, and the talk is that a spill will be on next week. On Tuesday the ABC reported that Omodei was about to be tapped on the shoulder and asked to make way for Vasse MP Troy Buswell. Omodei – a dangerous man to be around at times – today told the media any colleagues who did so would be “very lucky if they don’t get a good right hook, and they’ll be lucky to get out of the room standing up”. Like his Queensland counterpart Tim Nicholls, Buswell is a first-term MP. Meantime, former leader Colin Barnett has announced he will not seek re-election for his seat of Cottesloe at the state election due in February 2009. Barnett has told The West Australian he has thought better of retiring immediately, because it “wasn’t the right thing to do and a lot of people in my electorate want me to stay”. His enemies in the Liberal Party say he’ s only staying to block any move to recruit Julie Bishop to the state party leadership by having her take his seat at a by-election.
Northern Territory ALP. Clare Martin and her deputy Syd Stirling have both pulled up stumps and moved to the back bench. The Northern Territory News reports that leadership rival Paul Henderson delivered Martin a “gentle ultimatum” a few weeks ago. Martin accepted this without demur as she had lost her enthusiasm for the job following the federal government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities. Mutterings first emerged last November that Martin’s inaction in indigenous affairs had cost her the support of the most of the Aboriginal members of caucus, and that a challenge by Henderson would win the support of 10 out of 19 party room members. Martin and Stirling have both vowed to remain in parliament until the election due in mid-2009, so it does not appear we will be treated to by-elections in Fannie Bay and Nhulunbuy.
In late election counting news, Labor’s Jason Young is back in front of Andrew Laming in Bowman, if only by 21 votes. The pattern of voting in 2004 suggests Young has cleared his biggest hurdle now that pre-polls have been counted (mostly if not entirely), and should be able to keep his nose in front on remaining postal (where he has performed strongly so far), absent and provisional votes. In Herbert, Defence Force votes have slashed Labor’s lead from 528 to 36: the outlook appears better for Labor’s George Colbran now those are out of the way, but like Bowman it’s still close enough that anything could happen. Liberal member Peter Dutton’s lately acquired lead continues to widen in Dickson, and the Liberals are home and hosed in La Trobe and Macarthur. The only reason McEwen is not on the list is those votes we were told about which were wrongly sent to Scullin, on which I have heard nothing further. Defence Force votes have cut Labor candidate Damian Hale’s lead over CLP member Dave Tollner in Solomon from 718 votes to 427, but he should still get up unless there’s a surprise lurking in the remaining pre-polls. The trend in Swan contains to favour Liberal candidate Steve Irons, now 136 votes in front, although there will be very little in it either way. Anyone wishing to discuss these results is encouraged to use the dedicated threads linked to in the sidebar.
A couple of other seats worth noting. The Greens camp has been talking up a possible late-count boilover in O’Connor, where Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner could theoretically overtake Labor’s Dominic Rose and surf over Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey on preferences. At the moment Gardiner is some way behind Rose, 20.42 per cent to 18.37 per cent. It is argued that most of the 9.28 per cent vote that went to various minor candidates will go to Gardiner as preferences, although a good many went straight to Tuckey in 2004. The other question is how many of the 6.68 per cent who voted Greens followed the card and gave their second preferences to the Nationals. If the combined 15.96 per cent from minor parties delivers the Nationals 2.06 per cent more than Labor, Gardiner might be in business. In 2004 there was an 18.8 per cent minor party vote that split 7.8 per cent Labor, 5.7 per cent Nationals and 5.3 per cent, but the Greens were running split-ticket how-to-vote cards as opposed to their direct recommendation to the Nationals this time.
A late-count surprise has been a narrowing of Labor’s margin in Flynn, where postal votes have split over 70-30 in favour of the Nationals. This is because postal voting is a favoured method of voters in isolated rural areas, although the size of the gap is still a surprise. Whether or not the Nationals are still a show depends on whether there are more postals to come. Today’s Courier-Mail states that “postal votes were counted today”, which sounds like it means they were all counted, in which case the remaining 590-vote Labor lead should be enough. Pre-polls have in fact been running quite heavily in Labor’s favour, and absent votes are unlikely to buck the overall trend.
Corangamite is now on the AEC “close seats” list with pre-polls and postals having favoured the Liberals 57-43, cutting the Labor lead from 2217 to 767. However, there should be few if any remaining pre-polls and postals, and Labor did quite a lot better on the uncounted absent and provisional votes in 2004.
There has been no significant progress in Senate counting this week, but it might yet be worth keeping an eye on the Australian Capital Territory. The Liberal vote is clear of a 33.3 per cent quota on 34.1 per cent, which will need to drop at least 1.5 per cent if the Greens are to sneak through for an upset. At the 2004 election it actually increased by 0.22 per cent.
1,082 Comments
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Any word on what Bob Debus got?
Adam,
A few days before Abbott’s day of Apologies, Garrett had wrongly stated Labor’s position regarding developing countries for the upcoming future Kyoto Mach II negotiations. Rudd immediately corrected him, but it was not a good look.
Garrett often looked out of his element, although did better than expected in the Debate with Turnbull.
Swing Lowe-
Kelly in Veterans Affairs, wasted.
Its a declining area – WW2 vets and widows falling off the perch rapidly. Nice photo ops and cups of tea though.
any news on the Libs leadership?
ESJ (#203)- that is a moron’s statement. If you knew anything about the portfolio, you wouldn’t talk such rubbish.
Hemingway 187
Yes Tony Abbott, the gift that keeps on giving LOL.
I only caught up on the full text of his leadership comments on LateLine last night when I read the SMH this morning. An indication of future leadership challenges – just wonderful. So now Labor can accurately point out that the Liberals are both sticking to their unpopular old policies, and internally divided. I dub him the new Shadow Minister for Remaining in Opposition.
ESJ,
Kelly in VA would be an initial step. I’d expect he’d end up in Defence ultimately, but he’ll probably have to jump through a few hoops to get there.
198 The difference is ESJ that Labor intends achieving something while in power and not squandering time as your list of ministers was want to do. Leaving Ferguson out is a good move at this stage.
Dovif, I’d suggest your reading of history is flawed. Historically the ALP is elected when the economy needs fixing and/or people are feeling insecure. They trust Labor to provide a safety net and some compassion in these times. Once the economy is humming again they tend to elect Conservatives in the hope of maximising their financial returns. Labor tends to be the economic and social fixer.
ESJ #178,
You have noted that we are overdue for a recession. Does this mean that you won’t blame Labor if it happens within, say, the next 24 months?
Generally,
I wonder why Smith would be given Foreign Affairs? He seemed well-placed in Education, handing Bishop her backside every time they met.
Btw, I want to go on the record to congratulate Russell Broadbent on getting a swing towards him in McMillan. It shows what can happen if you’re willing to stick to your core beliefs, even if they contradict with the party’s official position…
No Kelly is the perfect person for FA in future
204 [any news on the Libs leadership?]
Yes Glen running around like chooks with their heads cut off as usual.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/29/2104874.htm
Rudd News Conference at 1pm
Optimist, I think you will find the demographic realities are undeniable when it comes to Vets Affairs.
So when will Mal or Bren come out 1:30 or beforehand?
Robert McClelland is Attorney-General (surely a placeholder for Dreyfus). Stephen Smith in Foreign Affairs.
McLelland to be A-G. So what does Debus get then?
Mathew Cole -
Yes, Australian governments influence outcomes at the margins, we are just too small otherwise to cause recessions except in exceptional cases. But if there is a recession Labor will wear it because it happened on their watch, not fair but true.
Stephen Smith LOL we go from Alexander Downer to Smith HAHAHAH!
Who’s got Education?
No wonder they chose Smith because Rudd will do all the work for him LOL!
Gillard has IR and education
Gillard has Education and IR according to the Herald Sun website.
McMullan is now Parliamentary Secretary
Nelson supposedly Liberal leader
The ONLY way to have a reasonably independent speaker is to make it a public service or statutory position
Whilst the appointment may be pro the Government in power , I suspect it may be
more independent than a Government MP
The other disgrace of the ‘Reps’ is question time :
opposition questions do not get answered
government questions do get answered as they’re “Dorothy Dixers”
(or in respect to Downer are they ” Dolly Dixers”)
All will be revealed at the press conference. It’s all speculation till then. I feel sorry for McMullen though….and Bevis is my local member and a decent bloke – though perhaps it’s difficult to justify so many Brisbane members on the front bench. I’d have thought Bevis was superior than Snowden though. Rudd must want NT to have representation. He’s spreading the love around!
Link in the Oz regarding Lib leadership:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22839806-601,00.html
Nelson 45-42 Sweeeeeet
Soc @ 206,
Yeah, I read the Lateline Abbott interview transcript at abc.net, and you’re spot on. Tony went a quite a lo softer on him because he was willing to show up on such a “hard” day.
Given the total rejection he’s copped, I’d surmise that a mid-life crisis looms large in Abbott’s future.
ESJ #219,
Fair point. People still seem to forget that the Western world was in recession in 1989, not just Australia. Damn Paul Keating and his big mouth.
what about deputy?
Nelson in as sacrifical lamb
Rudd to do a press conference at 1 pm AEST on his new Ministry
Thanks Nayto, for the extra info on Nick X
Woot, I just won $200 if Nelson was voted leader.
bob Debus was a rather ordinary minister in a very orddinary to very bad State government in NSW.
Why has he a m inistry.
Kelly, Shortern and Combet have better credentials
225 [Nelson supposedly Liberal leader]
You mean a former union boss who was an ALP member. It won’t get better if that was true.
Young now up by 60 in Bowman, Dutton up by 200 in Dickson.
Ron Brown #226,
The other way to get a non-partisan Speaker would be to appoint Katter or Windsor as the Speaker.
“Swing Lowe Says:
November 29th, 2007 at 12:32 pm
I’m surprised Garrett didn’t get shifted to Indigenous Affairs.”
I think Minister for the enviroment could go under the alternative title of “Minister that has to talk to Bob Brown”. In that sense, Garrett is well placed and now has had his wings clipped by having climate change removed.
He is not such a liability now, as the scare tactics he was subject to don’t work once the election is won.
SL: That means Dutton has dropped back since this morning in Dickson
ESJ (#215) – depends on your understanding of the demographics – if you think vet affairs is only about returned combat personell from the 1940’s and 50’s, then you’re take is correct. Problem is – it’s not. What about Vietnam vets, merchant seaman, Gulf War vets (both conflicts), veterans of countless peacekeeping missions, people involved in atomic testing….the list goes on. As I said, yours is a superficial and generally poor understanding of the portfolio. WWII vets and widows dropping off the twig does not mean that Vet Affairs is an irrelevant or increasingly irrelevant portfolio.
yeah but thats 89% counted he’s safe…
All Hail Admiral Nelson!
YES!
Just picked up nett $400 on Lord Nelson, many thanks to William and your cheque is in the mail.
HOLY CRAP!
Nelson wins!!!
Nelson has the unholy alliance of conservatives and anti-Turnbull moderates behind him. Nelson, from what I gather, is a moderate, which means he’s got to move his personal views to the right.
And of course, Turnbull will be waiting there on his frontbench (presumably), waiting for Nelson to stuff up and launch a leadership challenge…
Now, now Observer, Kevin told us we had to look beyond the “old battles”.
238 [The other way to get a non-partisan Speaker would be to appoint Katter or Windsor as the Speaker.]
Katter has been known to turn up to meetings days late. He won’t be responsible for anything.
Bishop deputy
Matthew Cole@238. Katter as Speaker??!!! HAHAHAHA I can imagine that giant hat of his as the perfect accessory to the Speaker’s robe. He wouldn’t expel the honorable members from the chamber – he’d leap over the Speaker’s desk and go the biff…”And F**@@N STAY OUT!!!
This is a great day for UNION BOSSES.
UNION BOSSES are taking over the Liberal party.
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