What I don’t know about the Liberal Party could fill a warehouse, but most of the prescriptions outlined by Michael Kroger on Sky News on Tuesday accord with my prejudices:
The organisational wings around the country need to be reformed immediately, particularly in relation to the branch structure and preselections. There’s a lot of things that can be done, very quickly. The party is in a terrible electoral position, but it can very quickly put itself into a fantastic position. This is not a five or ten year repair job. You could actually fix all the organisational and structural problems in the Liberal Party within 12 months if you had the will to do it, and make whoever the incoming leader is in a fantastic position to fight the next federal election in three years’ time. But what tends to happens is people retreat to their corners, they want to protect their own power bases and nothing happens. It requires some strong decision-making from the senior people to fix this thing, they can fix it in 12 months … The branch structure is 60 years old and even though the branch members still do a fantastic job, it’s the structure, not the branch members, it’s the structure which is drowning us. We’ve got probably 500 people in the Victorian Liberal Party whose job is as honorary auditor … There need to be branch amalgamations, we need to base the party around state or federal electorates, you need to broaden the base of people voting in preselections, you need to have perhaps a senior committee of senior party people who have the final say over preselections to rubber stamp the selections, you’ve got to stop the petty branch stacking, we should amalgamate with the National Party, we should give the federal party some more power a little like the ALP does, we should make it a federalist party and not just individual states, we need to totally revamp the fundraising within the organisation and we need to give the federal executive some power … you just can’t have situations where five or 10 or 20 people can stack a few branches and take over a safe Liberal Party seat and preselect a C-grade candidate and be happy with that. I pay credit to the Labor Party for some of the candidates they preselected, I don’t like their politics, but the fact is in various places they strong-armed some tired old members out, put some new people in who may or may not succeed but on the face of it some of them have got very good credentials for parliament. That’s the way you have to operate in politics. To leave these things to the branch-stackers is a recipe for disaster.
Malcolm Turnbull – wealthy, assertive, independently powerful – struck me as being just the man for the job outlined by Kroger. Perhaps the party room knows better. Or perhaps, to use Kroger’s formulation, they have signalled an intention to retreat to their corners and protect their own power bases, and nothing will happen.
Recommended reading: Alister Drysdale of the Business Spectator reports that both parties’ internal polling showed a late Coalition recovery that was stopped dead in its tracks by the Lindsay pamphlet disgrace. It’s also argued that the fake Jeff Kennett letter regarding proposed funding cuts to the states had the same impact during the last week of the 1996 campaign. I personally do not imagine that either incident was single-handedly decisive, but this is not the first report to emerge of a sharp shift in party tracking polling following Jackie Kelly’s infamous “Chaser-style prank” interview of last Wednesday. There’s also a very intriguing article on the Liberal Party’s late-term leadership ructions from Pamela Williams in today’s Financial Review (subscriber only unfortunately).
1,042 Comments
No, William, the party doesn’t know better than you do. The Liberal party is filled with a bunch of #(*$(#*$(*#$() [won't put in the words that will send this comment into moderation, therefore the reader can substitute words of their own choice].
Exhibit A – ” Mr Minchin and those who switched could not abide Mr Turnbull’s declaration early this week that John Howard should have said sorry to indigenous Australia.”
Exhibit B – “Another factor that played against Mr Turnbull, according to some sources, was the fact that although he was considered clever, articulate and confident, he was identified as a rich Sydneysider — “a bit too glitzy and slick, nd a small ‘l’ liberal”. Dr Nelson, on the other hand, was a “small ‘c’ conservative”, whose roots were humble and far from Sydney.”
Exhibit C – “Questions about his character arose when he later told interviewers and a Liberal pre-selection panel that he, in fact, voted Liberal during the years he belonged to the Labor Party. Now, at his crowning moment of redemption, the waters around him are poisoned once again. So much for party renewal.”
Exhibit D – “Mr Turnbull had presented himself in media interviews as new, energetic and open-minded, prepared to say “sorry” to indigenous Australians and to offer a socially inclusive face to the electorate.
According to a number of Liberal MPs who spoke to The Age yesterday, Mr Turnbull’s very public willingness to spruik his strengths was his greatest weakness when it came to the vote.
“He was seen to believe vociferously in things like the republic and he made this unilateral comment about saying sorry — things that a lot of us had opposed over the years,” one Liberal said. “And he made these sort of policy statements through the media. We felt that if this was the way he would operate, we weren’t ready for him.” Others said that some backbenchers, wearied of toeing the Howard line for years, felt they could not abide another powerful and prescriptive personality.”
Exhibit E – The willingness of those who did vote for Nelson to hang onto a proven failed policy, Work Choices.
{all quotes from the following article – http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/backroom-deal-takes-nelson-to-the-top/2007/11/29/1196037074766.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1 }
“Your Honor, after submitting 5 exhibits to prove prosecution’s point that the defendents are a complete and utter waste of space, I rest my case”
“The factions were left to squabble over the minor positions. Harry Jenkins will become speaker of the House of Representatives and John Hogg the Senate president.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/total-changing-of-guard/2007/11/29/1196037075009.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
It seems some people have very short memories. It wasn’t that long ago, after Latham was defeated, that people were saying the same about Labor. Despite the wishful thinking of many the Libs aren’t going to go disappear quietly into the night. They’ll eventually reform but it may possibly take one more election loss to force them to swallow some harsh medicine. It’s not a case of if they’ll reform but rather when and how. Regardless of anything the Libs do, Labor will probably have at least two terms in government. That’s more than enough time to reform and reshape the party.
Problem with Latham et. al (Beazely, Crean) was a leadership issue. Those in the party never felt 100% comfortable with any of them. Thus they couldn’t be effectively sold to the electorate. Had they had an effective leader at any of the 4 elections Howard won, he wouldn’t have been in power for so long..
McArthur still in the race for Corangamite
Jeff Whalley
Geelong Advertiser
30Nov07
Stewart McArthur could still hold the seat of Corangamite as votes continue to be counted.
STEWART McArthur could still hold the seat of Corangamite after a remarkable 11th hour turnaround in the vote count.
Postal, absentee and pre-poll votes continue to be counted and yesterday swung heavily in favour of the MP of 23 years.
Mr McArthur was 2600 votes behind Labor’s Corangamite candidate Darren Cheeseman on election night but, as of last night, the Liberal stalwart was only trailing by 764 votes with 10,500 still to count.
The seat is on a knife edge with Mr Cheeseman at 50.47 per cent and Mr McArthur at 49.53 per cent.
The phenomenal comeback has turned the victory cakewalk of Mr Cheeseman into a tension-racked final countdown with a result expected by tonight.
Last Saturday night, Mr Cheeseman claimed victory as the first Labor MP to take the seat since 1931 _ a move that now appears hasty with the Australian Electoral Commission saying the seat is too close to call.
Mr McArthur conceded defeat on Sunday saying politics was a tough business.
“It is quite a harrowing experience to lose the honour of representing the people of Corangamite,” he said.
But, while Mr McArthur could now have the last laugh, he was not talking up his chances yesterday.
“They tell me that it’s close but I’ve packed my stuff. I’ve said I have conceded,” Mr McArthur said.
The veteran Liberal took time from cleaning out his former deputy whip office in Canberra to talk to the Geelong Advertiser yesterday.
“It’s a bit of fun for people and the trend is going our way it would be a big story if it turned around but it hasn’t happened yet.”
“As of now the party is electing a new leader without me.”
Mr Cheeseman, who was also in Canberra yesterday, went to ground, not returning the Advertiser’s calls.
Labor Geelong state MP Ian Trezise, who won his first campaign after a drawn-out two-week count by 16 votes, last night said he empathised with both candidates.
“It’s not even a day-to-day rollercoaster, it’s a minute-by-minute rollercoaster. You’re up one minute and down the next,” Mr Trezise said.
He said it was difficult as the situation was so fluid, with no exact figure of how many votes were to be counted.
“If my memory is correct (when I ran) they found a box of postal votes from the Swiss Alps with a couple of hundred ALP votes,” he said.
Mr McArthur is one of the great survivors of Geelong politics pushing tariff reductions during the 1980s despite objections from the local auto industry and advocating dairy deregulation despite opposition from his Colac heartland.
I think it was in Peter Fitzsimmons’s biography of Kim Beazley that Keating stated that he believed that, had it not been for the “forged letters” affair and the controversy over Rupert Murdoch’s “SuperLeague” or whatever it was that dominated the news during the final weeks of the 1996 campaign, he could have won that election
As much as I admire and respect Keating, I think his capacity for deluding himself is quite evident through this statement. The size and magnitude of Howard’s victory in 1996 was such that I think that a Liberal victory was a foregone conclusion
This election was much closer and it’s possible that the party lost traction because of the whole Lindsay saga and I believe it will be much easier for Liberal strategists to put forward this case. I actually am inclined to believe that the whole affair cost Howard some support among ethnic communities in his seat of Bennelong which he may have needed in order to prevail. And it certainly cost Karen Chijoff any chance of winning her seat. But I think Lindsay was probably leaning Labor in any event in the absence of Kelly’s personal vote
Having said that, I thnk the Liberals would probably have narrowly lost the election anyway. I think the surge to Labor in Queensland, the party’s gain of seats in South Australia and in regional New South Wales and the recovery of seats in Tasmania would probably have happened regardless of the whole Lindsay saga. There is a case to argue that Howard’s agenda would have gained more attention during the final days of the campaign had it not been for the Lindsay affair because it wouldn’t have overshadowed his National Press Club Address but I still think that Labor would have had the edge regardless
McEwen has moved back into the ‘close’ list… looks like those 3000 votes may have been real after all.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-226.htm
Now a less than 400 vote gap, with only provisionals really to be counted. I don’t think Labor will quite get it… but it’s nice to see seats moving closer to Labor rather than out of reach.
Kroger is right of course and yes if the liberal party is to restore relevancy then they will need to adopt many of the recommendations suggested by Kroger. The Liberal Party is a 50’s come 70’s structure. The fact that it is a state based party outside government is one issue BUT if it is to succeed in the future it will have to learn the lessons Labor learnt and that is it needs constant generational change.
If your not a Minister and you have been in for three terms then you really need to justify your position and relevance to any party organisation. (Some will argue this test needs to apply on an ongoing basis).
Labor has rightly embraced a policy of continual renewal.
Had John handed over the leadership and introduced new blood the slaughter would not have had to be so drastic. People want stable yet dynamic governments. Change in members is the only way to bring about renewal and fresh ideas.
Problem is that those who remain on the opposition benches lack vitality and enthusiasm. It will take one more term just to weed out the existing dead wood in the house and then the fresh faces will soon become entrenched and they will want to protect their patch also.
The AEC results data is showing little movement.
I have switched to Andrew Landeryou’s Election Map as it now pans through the tally board showing seats that have changed hands and those within 1% margin. Whilst the ABC map has some good detail its navigation is not the best.
A party that has faith and lends support to its senior leadership can manage and ensure generational change so that if and when they lose power they have the experience and freshness to revive quickly.
All parties to need to review the term-of-office issue and support should be given to fixed four year terms. Then parties can manage and plan their campaign strategies better.
What I find interesting in viewing the results is the wide variance in the swings as high as 9% and in NP seats the swing was the highest. With such a variance in the percentage of the swings you have to think more then twice about the National average and the practice of comparing the movement from one election to the next. It just does not apply. Western Australia clearly dd not follow the national trend.
I think Kroger’s prescription is bizarre. It is based on the Liberals’ problem being an organisational one and it is clearly not, it is a political one. There is just no need for the Liberals political program, as most clearly shown by the fact that they were toying with Turnbull. Is Kroger saying that people did not vote for them because they didn’t like the party structure?
They can fiddle with the structure all they like what they can’t solve is the fact that the platform on which the party was founded (anti-union, anti-socialist, ant-left) is redundant.
I wonder if Labor will be in a position to act and implement governmental reform now that it holds power in every state and Federal jurisdictions.
Will it adopt meaningful change (Education to the states and health to the Feds. for example. Somehow I think not (Sadly) as too many self interest get in the way of reform that is obviously in the best long term interests. But like pollys Unions and business organisations have built their empires around this patch and they more often then not do not want to see change. Then there is the big sightly irreverent to day to day living but never the less important (The republic and a new flag for example). Will Rudd take on some of these inspirational and necessary changes… Or will the flounder in the sea of no change.
Interesting point from the ABC website
Rebuilding Liberals’ shattered remnants
The (Liberal) party is designed for government, not opposition. The primacy of the parliamentary party has always meant that policy is made by the frontbench. When in government, the issues of implementation have always been left to the public service. Without the perks of office and the support of the bureaucracy, the Liberals are very thinly resourced.
The party has none of the extra-parliamentary machinery that the ALP has, such as national conference and executive and also the ACTU, which provide not only policy support but also organisational continuity, especially in opposition.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/29/2104805.htm
William, an excellent lead in.
“You could actually fix all the organisational and structural problems in the Liberal Party within 12 months if you had the will to do it”
That is the crux: “if the will to do it”. It seems clear that most don’t.
At present the Liberal Party is a contradiction. It calls itself Liberal, but people like me who regard their principles as “small-l liberal” wouldn’t dream of voting for it. They really are a Conservative Party in practice. On some religious issues they are almost reactionary. But Liberalism is NOT always conservative as a doctrine. Nor has it been in practice. In the 1960s the Liberals embraced the referendum for granting the vote to Aboriginals. Would Menzies or Holt even get pre-selectd in the Liberal Party today?
That leaves them with two options:
- change their name to Conservative Party and stick with that demographic/ voting block (they will find it is not enough to get them elected to government and gertting smaller with time as cohort age)
- recover their Liberal principles and aim to recapture the middle ground. This will need more than a few words from Brendan Nelson. It will require policy change, taking disciplinary action against people who pander to extreme right wingers, and pre-selecting a lot of new candidates.
If they are serious, trogalodytes like Bill Heffernan should go. One of the worst aspects of Howard’s government was that people like him could smear someone like Justice Kirby, with false information as it turned out, and not even get disciplined by Howard (let alone charged with any offense). Then there was children overboard (nobody charged), Seiv X (no inquiry), Hicks (evidence now that Ruddock interferred), and perhaps worst of all Haneef (a clearly innocent man ruined by Andrews; still no Visa). As long as that sort of behaviour continues, and is not even aologised for (let alone acted against) then any claims of recovering liberal values into the Liberal Party are unbelievable.
Get the feeling they are running with Nelson now, expecting to have to ’sacrifice’ him sometime within the next year or two. Leaving the way open then for their preferred leader, Turnbull, to contest 2011.
Doing that will represent a cleanish break from the Howardistas and the divisive policies of the Howard era, putting forward the fresh new face necessary to take on a new Labor government.
They would probably like to put Turnbull forward right now as the new face and the break from the past, but are anticipating leadership stumbles as the shattered party finds its feet, so Nelson goes in right away as the fall guy.
Turnbull smore than a break with the past he is a break with the Liberal party.
Piping Shrike I agree; you said what I meant with far fewer words. It is not just organisational. The attitudes that poison the liberal party are carried within the minds of the people in it. Some of them need to lose their job before it will reform.
I believe Kroger would argue, if he was completely honest, that if they can fix their organisational problems the party will get back in touch with the electorate and then be able to fix the politics accordingly. However as long as they remain out of touch with the electorate partly due to their organizational problems, the political problems will remain.
Your right about the politics, it’s redundant, more than redundant, the crap Nelson is carrying on with makes the Liberals unelectable, however Kroger prescription is not bizarre. The role of an opposition is to provide an alternate government, the organization needs to be structured to put forward people that can form a government. The current structure is a wank.
The Liberal Party has just had the best opportunity for years to get in touch with what the electorate wants and does not want.
…you just can’t have situations where five or 10 or 20 people can stack a few branches and take over a safe Liberal Party seat and preselect a C-grade candidate and be happy with that…
Is this an allusion to Alex Hawke?
In fairness, as unpalatable as the likes of Hawke must be to many parts of the electorate, it’s doubtful that such matters made much difference to the overall election result.
Paul K I tend to see it the other way round. When a party fulfils a need for a segment in society, they organise its structure accordingly (unions, factions for the ALP and the disparate state-based organisation of the Liberals appropriate for business and small business constituency). The problem m for the Liberals is that they don’t fulfil a need, not even for business, as seen by Workchoices which business had little interest in.
As a result they have no basis on which to reorganise themselves – other than to act like some big focus group (and Rudd seems to be sending his lot out to schools etc. to do that).
charles, I couldn’t even work out what Nelson was about. Did you hear him answer O’Brien’s question on why he switched from Labor to Liberal? It seemed to be about his mortgage payments.
HR, I think there is a lot of internal agenda in what Kroger is saying.
While you are here Shrike check the end of the second paragraph of your blog today. I think you meant to put supported instead of supposed.
First time (and last time) poster, long time lurker.
I am a rank and file Liberal that follows this site sometimes for the excellent polling information (many thanks William), but I find the comment threads very heavy-going to wade through, and unnecessarily turgid.
Here’s my take.
1. Turnbull’s “symbolic” agenda does not win Liberal votes, and is completely unrepresentative of the Liberal Party, let alone swinging voters in modern Australia. It is an agenda that has passionate advocates, but (a) they don’t decide elections, and (b) why push them in a Liberal partyroom vote when they are demonstrably unpopular with that electorate? Even if the justification was “to grab the Party by the scruff of the neck” and challenge its attitudes, is a partyroom ballot the right time to do it, when you’re trying to get them to vote for you?
2. Is a “symbolic” agenda coming from an investment banker in Point Piper really going to turn around blue-collar, largely “patriotic” voters in Queensland and western Sydney? The party room, in my view, rightly said no. After all, that’s the task of the Coalition in order to rebuild its position.
3. The media narrative of “splits” and “knives” on Nelson’s majority in the vote is wrong – the Liberal Party is only just STARTING to adjust to the end of the Howard era and the end of old certainties, factional certainties among them. This partyroom vote looks like it cut across old factional certainties and was based on individuals as opposed to past loyalties. The party room looks like it is finding its way and is very fluid. There is nothing like a Howard-Peacock ossified divide in either the party room or the parliamentary organisation these days. Asserting that there is one there is relying on an ancient dichotomy by lazy journalists.
This is all less about Nelson’s positives than why Turnbull was the wrong choice, and that may mean that down the track if Nelson does slip it will be harder to defend his leadership if it comes under internal attack, but it is a summary of how things seem now.
And with that I depart! Again, thanks William for the site.
Not all 3000 Scullin votes counted in McEwen
could get a lot tighter
Thanks for that Persse, actually it was supposed to be “supposed to be”. Sub editors let me down.
Annabel Crabbe has another brilliant peice in the SMH today, referrign to Nelson’s election as “the resurrection of Dr Strangelove”. I particularly liked one of her lines on how things stand for Neson given Abbott and Turnbull’s reaction: “Just because you are paranoid, doesn’t mean everyone isn’t out to get you”.
Kroger is babbling, it can all be summed down to this.
They are an unpleasant party. A mean spirited party. Most people do not like that. Simple as that.
If you restructure a bunch of bloodhounds, it’s still a bunch of bloodhounds.
Malcolm was the best of a bad lot, but well he got rolled.
They needed to reinvent themselves, but instead its much the same muchness.
In any case, at the end of the day all of them were willing participants to the darkness that was the Howard years, so all of them are good for nothing.
Hope they walk in the wilderness for a long time, they have earned it throughly.
I agree about some posts being unnecessarily turgid.
So, I have just for words for Howard and the party he reshaped in his own image into a bunch of ideological thugs
Broad church my arse.
*four* words.
Malcolm needs to show his parliamentary colleagues that he can be a team player – looks to me like he’s been sending all the wrong signals. The time for making policy on the run is AFTER he’s been elected leader, not before. It will be interesting to see how Nelson handles things, I’m prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt, although I reckon the party shenanigans will make his life incredibly difficult.
A fish rots from the head, as we’ve just had so perfectly demonstrated over the last decade, and it looks like they are back to do it all again. One wit in the letters of today’s SMH:
Can the man who wanted to bring “intelligent design” into the classroom really bring intelligent leadership to the Liberal Party? It’s a big ask.
someone here said the other day that the next liberal party PM was probably up on the gold coast at schoolies’ week. i think that’s probably correct. ain’t even in the parliament yet.
they have a long way to go, and it sure as f$%k isn’t kroger’s way of structural change. look at what they’ve given themselves yesterday: a believer in intelligent design.
nelson and bishop certainly make an unattractive couple. noooooo charisma! and nelson already saying, no apology to indigenous australians and strong suggestion of blocking (while they can) abolition of serfchoices. they’re t^ts on a bull.
Have the mystery 3000 Scullin votes actually materialised in McEwan?
The gain to Mitchell (ALP) in last night’s figures seems to have come entirely from the absentees which are running 61% in Labor’s favor.
The original story was that the 3000 were cast within the “working-class urban end of the electorate”, which suggests that they weren’t absentee votes at all, just mishandled. (Possibly cast at a shared booth?)
Rob @33 – On my reading, the ALP gain in MCEwan has come from ordinary votes. The gain on absentees is only a gain of 400 votes.
Something that has been overlooked is Brendan Nelson as Minister for Defence ordered the Super Hornets against the advice of many defence staff. I expect a lot of issues about these aircraft will be raised over the next three years; cost, uselessness, lack of support etc. Add the shortage of equipment and its poor quality for the soldiers sent to Iraq and Nelson is not going to be happy. Remember the issues raised by the Howard government over the submarines Kim Beasley signed for.
Neil@35, you’re on the money i think. It’s an obvious point of attack. We could almost rename Greg Combet ‘Parliamentary Secretary for the Opposition Leader’.
Now everyone here this:
Australia is not a different country to what it was 36 months ago.
The Coalition lost because they had been in government for 11 years, were seen as old and stale compared to the opposition, had lost the trust of the people on interest rates, and imposed an unpopular policy agenda on the people.
They didn’t lose because the country woke up from a slumber, or they grew, or they shifted their world view, or because they wanted something fundamentally different from government. Keating tried to change the country and failed; Howard didn’t try.
The Coalition will still appeal to a broad number of voters because of what they represent.
A lot of what passes for “analysis” here is actually barracking. Try to articulate reasons for the eventual demise of the Coalition that are based in reality, rather than listing what you would like to see happen.
Actually John Faulkner will be the forensic analysist of the Howard years. the Tories are in deep deep deep manure for years.
Howard C, the Coalition lost because of Workchoices. If they hadn’t tried to implement that nasty farce of a policy they would have won. Unfortunately for the Liberals Workchoices also went some way to waking a lot of people up to what a nasty, divisive, cynical pack of sh*ts the Liberals actually are.
Howard C, you act on the same presumptions in a way. You could just as easily say that Keating lost because they’d been in government for 14 years, were seen as old and stale compared to the opposition, had lost the trust of people on interest rates etc. rather than because Keating tried to change the country.
On the contrary I think Howard did try and change the country, this can be seen by his ‘culture wars’, for instance trying to prescribe which version of Australian history will be the recognised one. Furthermore, he initiated a ‘citizenship test’ which was meant to prescribe ‘Australian values’. To me, I feel Howard most definately tried to change the country.
You say that the Coalition appeal to a broad number of voters because of what they represent… what do they represent? Why are they not in government anywhere around the country? Could you not say Labor appeal to a broad number of voters because of what they represent?
How much knowledge do you think the average Australian has of what each political party ‘represents’?
35 Overlooked? Nelson has been dubbed ‘Horatio Super Hornet’ on the previous thread. His running mate has been dubbed ‘Krystal Carrington’ for obvious reasons.
http://www.scorpiofiles.com/dynasty/linda/krystal.html
To the Libs claiming that they need to hold the conservative line (though I think it is a stretch to call some of what they are holding ‘conservative’), from opposition the ALP was able to set the agenda against the denial and negativity on social policy, the environment and IR that the Liberals in government could not sell.
As the ALPs messages become the mainstream narrative, not realising and adapting will put the Liberals further towards the margins.
Also, anyone else notice Nelson on the 730 report unable to differentiate between ‘liberalism’ and the Liberal Party? Who is he trying to win over with that gaff? Or is he just trying to convince himself that he isn’t a complete turncoat?
And how far advanced do you think Turnbull’s dvd montage, starting with ‘I HAVE NEVER VOTED FOR THE LIBERAL PARTY IN MY LIFE!’ is?
Nico @34 – I didn’t take a snapshot of the McEwan totals before last night’s update, so I only have William Bowe’s McEwan figures (not yet updated) on the McEwan page to go by.
Nonetheless, Bowe lists a 2PP @ 41,241/42,103 (83,344 total) without absentees; the AEC now has the 2PP @ 42,509/42,905 (85,414 total) with absentees. 85,414 – 83,344 = 2070, which also happens to be the exact number of absentees added last night.
Pancho @ 43
Youtube to the rescue: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r93YidU0i4M
The MSM is finding the adjustment from Howard Cheerleaders to Rudd objective and fearless analysts is not easy. Check the Yank or Aussie spelling issue which this Yahoo7 headline and intro paragraph reveals:
Defence MP questions
jet fighter purchase
New Defense Minister Joel Fitzgibbon will raise questions about the $7 billion purchase of F/A-18 Super Hornet jet fighters.
Could it be that this dysfunction is caused by 11 years of buying whatever military junk the Yanks want to dump upon us as well as slavishing following in American foreign policies from Iraq to Kyoto?
Has anyone else noticed that in electing Nelson and Bishop to head the Liberal party, we have seen a continuation of the “me tooism” of the campaign, except in reverse.
PS @ #10
Sir, I found your remarks to be astute as to the evolution of the Liberal party. It has not evolved at all let alone allow itself to become ‘progressive’. Ihe party is heading for irrelevance in foreseeable future. The Libs need to know we live in a society not a economy.
The same way communism went so will ‘TREX’ Australian Liberalism go too!
More fun for the federal coalition. Apparently the QLD Nationals party is saying they should breakaway from the coalition unless Joyce is promoted to Senate Leader. So they want to put a maverick in a position of leadership, nice.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/30/2105821.htm?section=justin
Will, well Boswell has already said he won’t serve the full 6 years so I don’t understand why they wouldn’t give Joyce the leadership. Boswell really is a waste of space.
The question remains – what does the Liberal party stand for with the Admiral at the helm? It isn’t liberalism – see policies casting the poor adrift, no ’sorry”, Workchoices, which is the opposite of free liberal ‘choice’. It isn’t conservatism in all things – see Workchoices, which was radical change. Is it US-style ‘neo-conservatism’ they stand for now? Possibly – see religious influence – intelligent creator, full funding for new religious schools, Iraq intervention, lies, crush opposition by any means (Lindsay).
It is hard to pin down though – exactly what are the basic principles of the Liberal Party of Australia? What should their new policies be based on? Anyone?
The article in the Fin Review today is very telling – Janette Howard as the praetorian guard!!!
I cannot wait for Costello’s tell all autobiography!!!
Re 37,
“Try to articulate reasons for the eventual demise of the Coalition that are based in reality, rather than listing what you would like to see happen.”
- the eventual demise of the coalition?
they are GONE now.
- reasons based in reality?
election results 24 November 2007
- listing what I would like to see happen?
see #2, it already has happened
51 – How about neo-conservative-Liberalism?
John Howard just did not plan for the future. To give Turnbull his dues (Not only is he a “non-direct-election” republican) he did manage to hold back the swing in his electorate.
John luke Hawke held on to power for too long. His ego and failure to inject new blood and renewal is what has forced the liberals into the reserves. I think he was trying to break that record. Now he will go down in history as being, what the second PM to be voted out of office and parliament.
Yes, Labor ran a plausible and effective campaign, John only had his daily morning power walks to try and keep himself active. Not sure if Costello would have cut it but he would have pegged back the back-swing. John not the Liberal Party lost this election.
Whgilst policies are important but I do not think the average swinging voter considers Foreign Affairs or big economic issues as a deciding issue as long as things are “comfortable” John just out stayed his time. Hang in their without a vision for the future. He had no Tamper and most people remember his lies then the tag Honest (NO GST) John.
Those that argue “it was the policies” I think their vote is well and truely decided..
Melbcity @ 55:
Turnbull’s margin was artificially depressed due to the Peter King factor.
Removing that factor made his job much easier, and his ‘real’ margin much greater than otherwise reported.
May I use a “ME TOO” please. Jakie Kelly, we LOVE you ! LOL
Murdoch on editorial control in newspapers.
Rupert Murdoch has admitted to a parliamentary inquiry that he has “editorial control” over which party The Sun and News of the World back in a general election and what line the papers take on Europe.
Mr Murdoch’s comments were revealed in the minutes from evidence he gave behind closed doors on 17 September in New York, during the committee’s inquiry into media ownership.
But the News Corporation chairman said he took a different approach with The Times and The Sunday Times. While he often asked what those papers were doing, he never instructed them or interfered, he said.
The minute stated: “For The Sun and News of the World he explained that he is a ‘traditional proprietor’. He exercises editorial control on major issues – like which party to back in a general election or policy on Europe.”
http://news.independent.co.uk/media/article3191592.ece
Horatio does not believe in evolution. He is now a fundamentalist born again christian (having been converted by wife no. 3 who is of that ilk) and is a proponent of “intelligent design”,
I think the Liberal Party is in opposition everywhere because of different reasons.
In Victoria Steve Bracks was well liked and his government made no glaring public mistakes. The opposition had, until recently, been a shambles. Leaders were making (poor) policy decisions by themselves without consulting Shadow Cabinet.
In New South Wales and Queensland it is more to do with the poor performance of the oppositions. In NSW the Liberals are dominated by the hard right to their detriment, and in Queensland the Premier was an extremely popular straight talker.
I can’t really speak for the other states.
I have no idea why the Liberals lost power in New South Wales in the first place, Jeff Kennett in Victoria was a powerhouse in Government but very ordinary electorally, and in Queensland the Nationals were in charge. Nuff said.
Keating tried to change the country culturally from something it fundamentally was to something it fundamentally wasn’t, at a time when people just wanted competent administration from their government. People weren’t working, interest rates were still too high, and there was Keating, talking about the Republic. Helpful.
I think Howard tried to make Australians comfortable about being Australians instead of uncomfortable. While many people believe on some social issues Howard could and should have been more compassionate, I think those people (me included) should just accept that the people in the mortgage belt, who make up a large section of the community, just aren’t that interested in those issues, and these issues didn’t inform their decision last Saturday.
So is Labor still a chance of winning McEwen? Have all the supposed missing 3000 votes yet been counted?
I can’t say I’m too confident about most of the rest, especially Herbert, Bowman and Dickson.
Those people who are suggesting that the main factor in the Liberal’s defeat was Howard staying on too long, ignore the reality that the ex-government really had no policies to run on, just a fear campaign based on the illlusion of economic brilliance.
Events have not only superseded Howard, they have overtaken the Liberal party itself, which has no way of re-inventing itself, no individuals capable of dealing with the challenges of the 21st century and no policies which have the slightest relevance to anyone except right wing idealogues and tired culture war warriors.
The world has moved on and the Liberal Party is left floundering in its wake.
At least you will have Robertson eh Howard Hater?
Julie – just don’t cut and run from the country when the Liberals (eventually) gain government again.
Julie (53) Poster 37 is correct. These threads need more analysis and less barracking. Government in this country is won and lost in outer metropolitan and regional seats mainly in NSW and Queensland (compare seats to change hands in the 1996 and 2007 elections). The analysis of what went right and what went wrong for either side of politics is to be found in the reasons why voters in those seats switched sides. None of your posts including Post 2 on this thread, are particularly persuasive as to the reasons, but (for what it is worth) I am pleased for you that you are so delighted with the election outcome.
Kroger’s prescription is just another variation on the ’strong man’ theme. This is why they have failed to regenerate during Howard’s reign.
Liberals finally found a new word in their dictionary.
http://theorstrahyun.blogspot.com/2007/11/liberals-suddenly-very-interested-in.html
ESJ: I’d rather have Jason Young or George Colbran than Belinda Neale.
David Charles is of course correct.
Government whether Labor or Liberal is the problem not the solution.
Howard C, I agree that the election wasn’t won due necessarily to a rejection of Howard’s Australia but want to qualify it by saying that a significant portion of Australians have not felt more comfortable ‘being Australian’ through the Howard years, and another portion never felt uncomfortable during the Hawke/Keating years.
I’d say the portion that felt uncomfortable during the Hawke/Keating years are probably the Liberal Party base vote, during the Howard years the Greens and Labor Party base vote, and the ones that generally didn’t feel different either way are the swinging voters.
The real reason for a government change, I believe, is far more superficial than a lot of other people would imagine. To me, leadership plays a huge part in it. Howard was seen as stale just as Keating was arrogant. People were prepared to accept Howard in ‘96 and Rudd in ‘07, not because they were particularly inspired by either, but because they’d just had enough of the old leader.
I suppose at the end of the day, any government change is made up of a ‘cobble-up’ of issues. Perhaps WorkChoices played a small part, the leadership issues another part and the negative reaction to Howard’s Australia another part. I think if we looked at it, the most significant chunk of the vote was people rejecting Howard’s vision for Australia, but the most important chunk (the chunk that decided the election) was a cobble-up of a lot of tiny issues.
35
Neil
You obviously weren’t here late yesterday Neil, so don’t worry, you can bet your $6 billion this little bit of (dare I say it?) Napoleonic folly will not go unnoticed by Her Majesty’s Government.
Anyway, I took the liberty of dubbing the young Lord Nelson ‘Horatio Hornet’, in honour of this singular acheivement.
Kinda suits him, n’est pas?
Lose the election please – I would agree with all of that, except I would find most swinging voters probably agree more with Howard on cultural issues.
To see evidence that this election was not fought on cultural issues (Australia waking up), look at all the things Kevin Rudd said during the election.
Most people don’t want the government to weigh in on cultural issues or spend too much time on it. Keating was seen as spending too much time on things that didn’t matter. Rudd spoke all the time about “kitchen-table” issues. He ran a perfect campaign, there wasn’t an actor or muso to be seen, and he won.
Personally, I think the Yanks have it right when they refer to “administrations”, because good governments are those that administrate rather than other things.
Nelson’s election is easy to understand. He received a swag of WA votes.
But, of course, there are strings attached!
No Sorry and also Workchoices is to be defended.
I can do that, Brendan thinks to himself.
However his effort last night on 7.30 Report left me in a spin. Is his elevation a break from the past, which the Party certainly needs, or are they still in a rut – and doggedly determined to stay there?
For WA to be in the position of determining the Liberal leader – AND determining policy direction – demonstrates how close to irrelevance the Libs are becoming.
The strings attached are there for all to see – and they are attached to each joint of Nelson’s body. But the Libs have few options left and irrelevance is nigh.
I am proud to have Julie Bishop as my deputy, not because she is a woman but because of her incredible intellect:
Bishop has no opinion on ’sorry’ issue
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22847180-12377,00.html
Howard C @ 60.
The Libs were a bit unlucky to lose power in 1995.
They got 52% of the 2PP but Labor managed to form government with a majority of one.
Howard C – yet the link to the Alister Drysdale article above in William’s opening indicates that both parties noticed a movement in their tracking polls back towards the Liberals which stopped after the Jackie Kelly fiasco. And the swinging seat in question, Lindsay, was resoundingly returned to Labor. Subconsciously or otherwise, people pay attention to what underlies these sorts of indicents.
I don’t think it is a black and white issue, but more and more people were certainly feeling uncomfortable with the way that Howard has played such cultural politics particularly over this year, cases in point being the emerging reactions to Hicks and Haneef. None of these was a knockout, but Howard just went too far for too long, and this was an issue.
That should be ‘lose power in NSW’ in 1995.
Nice background piece on Penny Wong in the SMH.
Could this be a reference to, well, us, on this blog? -
“Her appearances on the ABC’s Lateline won a solid fan base among news and political junkies and anyone else who watches current affairs late on Friday night.”
There is nothing wrong with WorkChoices per se. The problem was in the selling. Once people understand that this is good for them, they will vote us back into power where we belong.
Can I also say that saying sorry to Aborigines is wrong. Why should we be held responsible for the sins of our forefather which had only the best intentions? The same way as we should not boast or brag about our forefathers who fought so bravely in Gallipolli. It has nothing do with us and we should not be constantly reminded about their deeds.
Both Nelson and Bishop’s positions on an apology are rediculous. It is obvious that both individuals find the position that they are advocating odious. I wonder how long this obfuscation will continue before they are either crushed or confront the deniers hiding in their backrooms.
Wrong as always LETP. The swing was about 75% WorkChoices and about 25% “it’s time,” except in the Qld seats where “we want Kevin” was also a big factor. WC was completely toxic for the Coalition in the suburban and regional marginals. Hockey, who ought to know, has admitted as much, and Turnbull would probably have also done so as leader. But now the Trogs are in control there will be no backdown from WC, which suits us Labor hacks just fine.
William
Corangamite: I calculate will be a cliffhanger despite Labor 2 PP now at 50.47%
with 86.16% vote counted.
Using current todate pre polls , postals & ordinary votes 2PP percentages ,
the current 764 Labor lead will drop to a 160 majority **
(there are no absentee votes in Corrangamite
none of the 5579 absentee votes issued have been received back by aec !)
if there most of these absentee votes issued are in play , Labor can not win it
William , what do you think
Do the bookies have odds on how long this care-taker Nelson will last – I would guess it’ll be as long as it takes for Lib branch members to see the footage they ran on ABC last night of the young Nelson screaming “I’ve never voted Liberal in my life!!!!!”
Optimist – although he wasn’t that young. 93 wasn’t it? And then in the Liberal Party in 94? Must be an impressionable young chap. I wonder when he’ll be off for his stint with the Socialist Alliance?
82 – There would have to be some absentee votes .. and should they run roughly along the same % as the polling booths ?
Optimist 83 can I let you in to a little secret:
I still have never voted Liberal in my life…
…shhhh don’t tell anyone…there are more secrets where that came from…
Adam, I agree with you partially, but think WorkChoices directly played into the ‘its time’ factor. Do you think, if Howard had had his way in 1996 with the Workplace Relations Act that they would’ve definately been thrown out in 1998?
I’d like to think so, but I’m not completely sure. To me, I think WorkChoices deserved a bigger reaction than it received. It really was a terrible moment in Australian history, and think it should be rightly remembered as such.
Generally, I think governments try and introduce their most unpopular policies after big wins (eg. 1996 and 2004). The problem was, the ‘04 win wasn’t anywhere near large enough to counter WC.
I still don’t really understand why, if WorkChoices was such a toxic policy Labor didn’t stick with their original Forward with Fairness plan, without watering it down. Would people have been so scared of it they wouldn’t have voted Labor? I doubt it.
Brendan, did the kindly Mr Shepherd have anything to do with your Damascusian awakening way back then?
Re 60,
Howard C Says:
Well LTEP, wait till you see the IR legislation, I think it will be presented as the abolition of WorkChoices but in reality will be WorkChoices Lite.
Many of the unions have experienced membership losses of 10% of their membership in the last year and the insidious effect of the legislation is that it actually encouraged large companies to think of how to de-unionise. These companies tend to be slow and have slow processes with the effects of these strategies panning out over years.
Look at Qantas, it agreed to cut wages for new staff by 30% and increase working time by 30%, didnt use AWA’s but the effect is likely to be the same.
The election of Nelson and Bishop shows that an “old guard” still have the numbers in the Liberal Party. The Liberals are unreconstructed on the labour market and indigenous affairs: two areas where the Liberals allow ideology to over-rule reason. The WA division is clearly ascendant, which has to be bad news. They have a very great talent for elevating mediocrity and compliance over ability and strength. As long as they control the federal parliamentiary party, the Liberals will go nowehere.
Re 64,
Howard C Says:
I adopted Australia as my home. I don’t cut and run from anything. I have to live the rest of my life with Amanda Vanstones stamped signature on my citizenship certificate [ eeewwwwwwww ]. Will be a long long time though before Labor are again in opposition
Brendan – I’ve heard that you still wear the earing too – is it really worn where i think it’s worn……ouch?!
Optimist 93 my wife approves…:)
Blindoptimist @ 91- And wait until the NSW branch goat sacrificers get together with the WA division. The old guard will look tame compared to what they will cook up together.
I’m with Adam there – not backing down on Workchoices is the biggest “welcome to Government” gift that the Libs could give the ALP.
I think that Keating summed it up with this line…..
“We will not adopt the fantastic hypocrisy of modern conservatism which preaches the values of families and communities, while conducting a direct assault on them through reduced wages and conditions and job security.”
Keating’s Election campaign launch, February 14, 1996.(Very prescient).
Brendan…..please…eeeewwwwwww!
If WA Libs branch is ascendant, it can only be due to their forceful resolution of leadership issues. It is the same threat of force which kept Costello in his box for all these years.
In terms of the NSW division of the Liberal party – I think the uglies are about to become the FUGLIES!
Q’ld is by far the most parochial state having lived there for many years,
The selection of a ‘reasonable’ Queenslander as ALP leader RESULTED in the ALP winning the election by winning huge winning seat margins in Q’ld seats
Without a Q’ld ALP leader , Howard may have won a cliffhanger victory with ALP getting under 52% 2PP.
BEFORE RUDD WAS HEARD OF , from Sept 2006 the polls showed a 4% swing directly caused by the ACTU work choices ads.
Clearly work choices is what won the 4% swing (Rudd’s elevation locked the 4% in and being a Queenslander then delivered the bonus big swing Q’ld seats)
Optimist you can talk medical things with a doctor and then turn all queasy…
BN @ 98, you should take a closer look at the WA Liberals at a local level: very disappointing. By comparison, they make a quite inept Labor State Government appear almost passable. Aside from the state party, taken as a whole, the federal Lib contingent is as lacklustre as could be. But I have an alarming thought: they could be typical of Liberals everywhere.
Brendan…….not queasy, just a bit disturbed.
I wonder if it makes a difference to the public what flavour of government is in power during economic good times? So long as you don’t do something really silly many of the voters simply ’sleep-walk’ and assume you have the credit for the good times.
Mr Howard handled the issues of Workchoices and Iraq very poorly and woke up the sleep-walkers. If he had introduced Workchoices after a good deal of public and parliamentary discussion and then pushed it through much of the bite would have been removed. Sell it then make it mandatory. Howard could have also morphed the combat role to a training role in Iraq as soon as it became apparent the issue was on the nose and, thus kept the faith with GWB.
It wasn’t so much the issues but how and when they were handled. This is why he lost not to mention Rudd stealing all the good issues as soon as he was made leader of the opposition. Howard’s political acumen wasn’t up to scratch, laziness and over-confidence.
I don’t like Workchoices at all but I reckon Howard could have sold it if he was willing to bother – the public seemed to always listen to him and give him the benefit whenever he made the effort.
One part of that failure is due to the low standard of people he kept around him and their easy compliance. How all these ministers in a long term government got beaten in their respective debates is beyond me.
Nelson clearly ties himself to the past with Workchoices and not-sorry and this really helps Labor by clearly showing the divide between the two parties. Whilst it continues it will entrench public opinion and push Rudd Labor further out in front. The Liberal party really needs to take all these things on-board to show that they ‘get it’ and have changed and now once more worthy.
If the economy sticks together for another 3 years then Labor could end up occupying the top job for many many years thereafter.
Julie Bishop sets the Liberal Party’s modus operandi for their stint in Opposition… reactive politics.
__________________________________________________
Julie Bishop has no opinion on ’sorry’ issue
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22847180-29277,00.html
Ms Bishop declined to offer a view on the issue today.
“It’s now up to the new government to take a position on this and then we will respond accordingly,” she told ABC Radio.
__________________________________________________
I have to say… that’s a very poor start. They need to know the other side’s position before they can have one? Weak.
Cross-post from the McEwan discussion:
I’ve been doing some further numbers…
* Ordinary (polling booth) results in McEwan are about 3500 below what might be expected based on the 2004 results, adjusted for the 9% increase in enrollment in McEwan from 2004. Consequently, the “3000 missing votes” may yet turn up.
* Based on 2004 returns, there are likely to be approximately 4000 absentee, 1500 pre-poll and 1000 postals yet to be counted, or a little over.
* If remaining absentee, pre-poll and postal returns remain consistent with trends to date this results in around 3115 extra votes to the ALP and 2385 to the Liberal Party. This would be enough for the ALP to win the seat by a bit over 200 votes.
Caveats:
* The current percentage of absentees going to the ALP (61%) is dramatically higher than 2004 (44%) yet postals and prepoll are more consistent with 2004 (2004 – 39% pre-poll, 39% postal to ALP; 2007 – 45% prepoll, 40% postal to ALP). This suggests that there might be some weirdness in the early absentee counting. If the 61% absentee ALP vote doesn’t hold up then the Liberal party looks pretty safe.
* We’ve been lead to believe that if these 3000 mystery votes ever appear they’re likely to favor the ALP. Although it’s possible that they’re still out there I personally won’t be holding my breath.
Conclusion: the ALP remains a real chance here, but given the above uncertainties my money is on the Liberal Party retaining the seat by a nose.
Nelson married thrice!!
OMG hahahhhh what is wrong with him.
What is his relegion? Certainly not Christian, they don’t allow/endorse divorce
(for which I don’t agree)
Liberals grilled Latham for his second marriage. Look at their leader Nelson now.
What a bad substitude! I bet Nelson won’t last long.
Lose the election please, I never liked your posts until you revealed that you were one of us working undercover. Now that we have indeed lost the election, you change sides? You sir are a turncoat, a rat in the ranks.
Best graphic from election night.
http://dailyflute.com/?p=1340
Thinking about Rudy Guiliani’s efforts to get the Republican nomination in the U.S – he was recently described by a fellow conservative as the “thrice married, cross-dressing, gun-suppressing abortionist from New York.”
Not great credential for appealing to your base – wonder if Nelson’s status as the “thrice married former ALP member” might hurt him with the Hillsong gang and others.
William , you say you do not know alot about the Liberal Party
Well it is summed up by a phrase EVERY wet & dry Liberal ever includes when describing what the Liberal Party stands for :
‘individual choice’
You are on your own in a ‘market’ economy and the ‘best’ will earn the most.
Schools, Hospitals , private health insurance , indeed ‘all services’ belong in a
‘market economy’ where those who have earned the most benefit
Labor’s values of equity of opportunity , ‘fair go’ and compassion support are in conflict with the above Liberal values.
Work choices IS CONSISTENT therefore with Liberal values
ESJ
If you’re still around, you noted previously that many unions have seen a big drop in membership since the introduction of workchoices (or the introduction of the ALPs policy response). Have you some data to back this?
Ta.
Ron @ 111 – so there is a philosophical base for the Liberal Party after all- The law of the jungle – let the strong survive and the weak make their own arrangements.
But wait – what about the huge payments to pay the cost of starting and maintaining private schools, drought relief and tax breaks for farmers. So where is the consistency with the philosophical base there? Law of the jungle for some, molly-coddling for others. I really would like to ID that immutable inner core of the Liberal Party, but it seems awfully elusive so far.
William reported on the Business Spectator which said: It’s also argued that the fake Jeff Kennett letter regarding proposed funding cuts to the states had the same impact during the last week of the 1996 campaign.
This is tommy-rot. 1996 was the best example ever of the polls being stuck in a rut and not moving one inch from 1 year before the election until right up to the election itself. There is not the slightest public polling evidence that Keating was making some sort of comeback.
Could be true in 2007…. definitely NOT true in 1996.
Hey gang, just came back from sitting beside a swimming pool in Broome for the last 6 days. Did I miss anything important? That Galaxy poll was outside MOE wasn’t it?
115 Nothing to see here situation normal. The Galaxy poll is looking better this week than last week. It’s like a good port just improves with age.
Who wants to predict what the final 2PP will be ??
Sat night it was 53.41% …presently 52.95% ( & has fallen hourly since Sat nite)
is Galaxy 52 to 48 going to be proved right
I guess 52.5% but I wish I knew WHERE in the aec site you can find “National”
figures for no. of pre polls & postals RECEIVED by the aec ??
the aec only give the “National” pre polls & postals counted. We need both stats
(then we’d know “National” how many remain uncounted…I can only find it per seat
Julie Bishop on saying Sorry…
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22847180-29277,00.html
“It’s now up to the new government to take a position on this and then we will respond accordingly,” she told ABC Radio.
Her leader said the party won’t say sorry.
Now the deputy says something else (like, we’ll wait to see if we can engineer some political mileage for ourselves after Labor reveals its position).
So which is it guys? The Howard line or the Machiavellian line?
Not a good start for the new team
The Lindsay pamphlet thing was a demonstrable mistake that everyone would consider a terrible thing to try and do. But the Liberal Party doesn’t have a mortgage on idiocy.
steve #116,
Your other name wouldn’t happen to be Steven Kaye, would it?
It’s not up to the Coalition to say sorry NOW that they are in opposition. Certainly the political parties don’t hold any responsibility for the stolen generation; it is the Australian Government which holds responsibility.
Newspoll Monday – Nelson leads Rudd on the crucial question of who’s best for economic management…..
I think Labor will scrape in in Bowman, comparing figures to ‘04 and they haven’t started counting provisionals yet.
Ron Brown, check out latest Bowman count, hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
If they could pull Turnbull back a tad from the “left” of the Liberals he’d do excellent. Nelson is going to take them under, deep under. I’m a member and I’m absolutely disgusted at the choice.
Labor’s lead has increased by 90 votes since this morning.
Corangamite has now been removed from the ‘close’ seat count. Still yet to start counting absentees or provisionals.
120 Certainly not. I have been very critical of Galaxy but as Ron Brown pointed out at 117 the National figures have been falling steadily since Saturday night, as the postal votes due to incumbants having more staff etc and better resources to sure up votes makes Galaxy look better, much as I dislike to admit it.
News on the Queensland stalemate is that the Libs are having a meeting on Monday to resolve the Leadership issue. Could be a long meeting.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/deadlock-must-be-broken-flegg/2007/11/30/1196037126505.html
Corangamite – the absentee votes only favoured McArthur 52.48:47.52 in 2004.
His prepoll 2PP is down from 59.83 in 2004 to 55.06 this time so far, and his postal 2PP is down from 61.86 to 56.27. If that pattern holds up the absentee votes may well favour Labor.
Yo Ho Ho,
Yes go to http://www.airc.gov.au and look at the registered organisation files. Pick the name of any union and find anyone that has reported its 2006-2007 financial results and you will see there has been a decline on average of about 10%.
Have you seen the photo of a young Nelson in his cowboy hat and moustache? Looks scarily like Ivan Milat.
Updates:
Bowman: Labor lead up to 116
Dickson: Labor trails by 154
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/sorry-issue-splits-libs/2007/11/30/1196037125789.html
“Today, Dr Nelson said he had cried while reading about the plight of Aboriginal Australians in the past, but Australians should not be sorry about it.”
Any bets on how long this contradiction might go on? Could go one of two ways – he’ll do a Blainey and distance himself from the left and start to go loopy on a range of things, or do what he feels is morally correct.
Given his history, I’d be inclined to think the former.
Maccas Guy 69 votes behind in Herbert!
I suspect the ALP will be happy with the role the “celebrity candidates” played. Helped give the illusion of change for the party and helpfully most of them,
Maccas Guy
SAS Guy
Army Guy 1 ( La Trobe)
Glamour Girl
Thoughtful Girl
just missed out. Maxine and Army Guy 2 wont be able to cause too much disruption ( a la Cheryl) on their own.
Ron Brown – Corangamite will be won by the Cheeseman!
‘Maccas Guy’ was a celebrity?
By glamour girl Edward should I assume you’re talking about our Belinda?
Hasnt Army Guy 1 made a bit of a comeback today?
ESJ, don’t forget Union Guys 1 & 2.
Picked up .2 %TPP so far today.
That seems a fair movement Gary. Do you know how much counting thee has been?
About 13% left to count.
LTEP Maccas Guy is a celebrity in Townsville. Glamour Girl is Cornes in Boothby. Belinda is just a Central Coast local fighting for her community.
Pancho always the loyalist, admirable. Like the English generals in the chateaus I am certain your field of Flanders efforts are admired by high command.
ESJ you seem to be intent on looking for inconsequential victories where ever you can find them. This is all peripheral to the main game, which is of course that LABOR ARE BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ESJ – my supervisor is os at the moment chairing a history conference. Will have to check with him if my efforts are admired on his return.
How’s yr blog going?
Oh dear LTEP says Labor will win Bowman. We are doomed. That’s the only good news Laming has had all year.
The ALP factional system is generally misunderstood, invariably misrepresented in the media and often did the Party no favours when internal brawling hit the news. The system was developed to organise and give official voice to the various philosophical positions that inhabit the Labor party. They also served to ensure that leadership decisions were based on advice received from across the Party and not just on the Leader’s own views/biases/perceptions. This democratic approach to decision-making contrasts with the Liberal party where the Leader is supreme and his (it’s always a he) word is law. This is a weakness for the Libs in that the leader’s power is hard to assail and when the leader pursues an unwise course the whole machine follows him into oblivion (witness their current position). With Mr Rudd muzzling the factions and centralising power in himself, is the ALP now in danger of committing the same folly as the Libs??
Actually I think its a real shame that all of them will go down Gary. If they had got up it would have been a significant bloc which could have led to opening up and democratisation in the ALP.
Yes the Labcest candidates got up – mores the pity!
More proofs less blogging required Pancho.
Ah, you make me laugh ESJ, if that IS your real name.
Peter Lindsay should be thanking his lucky stars for all those defence personnel in Lindsay, although why they all vote Liberal is beyond me.
Correction: I meant to say Herbert, not Lindsay – still got Jackie Kelly on the brain LOL
Please note too:
who exactly has KR surrounded himself with (ie who has the clout in Cabinet)?
Faulkner
Gillard
Kim Carr
Penny Wong
Fitzgibbon
Crean
ie, the old Latham loyalists.
The more things change the more they stay the same eh?
ESJ, I suppose you’ll be all over Nelson when he selects Howard loyalists to serve in his Shadow Ministry. Unfortunately in a leadership vote people have to vote for someone and obviously they thought Latham was the best leader at the time… although why they did I’ll never know.
Incidentally, your views on the Nelson/Bishop selection? I thought it utterly predictable.
I’m still hopeful that Laming will go – has anyone ever seen this preening little do-nothing pretty boy?
I can’t wait for my honeymoon to start….
No mention of the ‘roosters’ now ESJ, who occupy the positions that Costello and Downer did?
For mine – I couldn’t be happier that Faulkner and Gillard will be doing the running.
Howard Hater at 151
“why they all vote Liberal is beyond me”
They think voting Labor is for guys with small, er, feet.
Hey Brendan, isn’t three enough?
I’d just like to point out that I don’t know who Steve is or why he puts a link to every post I do in the comments. But I’m sure he is very nice.
I would have voted for Latham too. Got them closer to getting to Rudd. They just had to go to Beazley for a while.
Just to get back to the actual topic of discussion (ahem…) the Libs appear to have done a Beazley and elected Nelson as a transitional leader just like the ALP did after the 2004 deluge… I agree with Kroger, you do not necessarily need 5 years to get it right (where there is a will, there is a way) and the Libs would have to regroup within the next 3 years to have any chance of winning the 2010.
Not that I wish it to happen! Agree with William about the potential of one Malcolm Turnbull, I am not sure why I like the guy (strewth, never thought I would say this about a Tory), but perhaps that is because of his social-liberal beliefs.
The most obvious challenge for Nelson is not whether or not to say ’sorry’, or what to do with the vote on WorkChoices, but how to establish some sort of equillibrium within the party and maintain it.
I still think he will either fail dismally or succeed just enough to set the background for the next leader who will take the Libs into the 2010 election, and that certainly won’t be Bishop.
Daily Tele ‘… and Kevin Rudd announces he will not be guided by his religious beliefs.’
There’s a blessed relief!
Pancho you forgot Conroy? The roosters might be in Cabinet but its pretty clear which faction is dominant.
LTEP – IMO Nelson needs to focus on the internals in the first year.
Work out who is not in it for the long haul, for example Downer and organise their transition out of parliament and bring in fresh blood without losing any seats in by-elections.
Ideally should be looking to have more people come in who are not from a WASP background. For example an Asian candidate in Berowra could be a big winner for the Liberals. Given the HK Chinese community is a natural fit with the Liberals for example.
But for sure the Opposition front bench will be weaker – always is immediately after a loss but its the quality of people who come into the safe seats now that will count later.
Otherwise sit back and wait for Labor to make mistakes. Why commit yourself to anything until you see the colour of the IR legislation or how the “sorry” works. Interestingly KR for all his blathering about sorry has already ruled out compensation – how courageous, Gestures not substance it seems at least in this area are the order of the day.
111
Ron Brown
Saying that the Liberal Party stands for ‘individual choice’ is like saying the Liberal Party stands for ‘motherhood’, which if unqualified, actually means a teensy bit less than sod all.
You know what, Labor stands for ‘individual choice’ too, so let’s examine a couple of the things you cite:
Work Choices, now let’s see, the boss gets to make the choice of what conditions you work under, and the worker gets to make the choice to ‘find another job’ (er, maybe, or more likely, maybe not). Clearly, the issue is about POWER, and giving it all to one side was roundly rejected by the far more sensible portion of the electorate.
Private Medical Insurance. Is it really ‘private’, or is it a publicly subsidised system to keep the insurance industy well lubricated and to keep those able to afford it with access to a much higher class of medical care? Once again it’s about power, the power of the medical profession and the insurance industry to extract money from the ‘commonwealth’, for its own enhancement.
Private Schools: same thing. The power is clear, wealth and privilege Vs the commonwealth.
So why do all these ‘private’ institutions need ‘public’ funding? Well, in your ideal market economy they shouldn’t, but the reality is they have ‘power’, and under the previous Liberal government, they got what they wanted and the public (or common) wealth was gradually being siphoned off to their side of the ledger.
Arguments about whether private enterprise is always more efficient is full of blah blah, and I’m not going to go there here, but suffice to say, when the boat starts to list too far to one side, we are smart enough as a nation to tilt it back again.
ESJ: George Colbran isn’t a celebrity candidate. He has been involved with the ALP since 1980. They didn’t just go and say ‘Hey wanna be apart of our party’. He even went through the preselection process, and won it over a union official (by a decent majority).
Pancho let me just put on the record that we all make mistakes.
And I don’t believe premature elevation is a problem anyway.
It can often be misdiagnosed such as was the case for Costello. Trust me, I’m a doctor.
Are the Liberals honestly going to vote against the apology in parliament?
That would look hilarious, the house actually having to divide to vote on a condolence motion. That probably hasn’t happened for 100 years.
He seemed to be endorsing the Thomas Paine / Jefferson position, that religion is a direct connection between a person and their god, and that the state should have nothing to do with it.
165 kirribili – that’s right, and not one Lib supporter has been able to even attempt to enunciate a core principle of the party this morning
In the absence of any base belief, their reason for being must simply be to exist for the purposes of defeating the other big party whatever their policies, good or bad, so they can give heaps to their own special idealogical friends.
How many people do you think support an “apology” in Flynn or Solomon, ShowsOn?
What kind of preselection process Will?
The Libs’ slow gains in 2PP will taper off, and Labor will probably win around 52.8% 2PP, a reversal of the 2004 result. This is because most of the pro-Lib postals and pre-polls have already been counted; what remains is mostly the absentee and provisional counts, which will favour Labor in 2PP by about the same or better than the ordinary votes. You can see current count for all vote types here:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByPartyByVoteType-13745-NAT.htm
and the same for 2004 here:
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseStateFirstPrefsByPartyByVoteType-12246-NAT.htm
Maybe it was an anti-Maccas vote and they should have gone with Union Guy #3? and Union Guy #4 in La Trobe?
Whether the people support it or not is of no consequence. Policy shouldn’t be decided on the basis of popularity… it should be decided on whether its the right thing to do. The right thing to do undoubtedly is to make an apology to the Indigenous people, not from the people necessarily but as an enduring Government of Australia. This means that governments ought to take responsibility to rectify the wrongs of previous governments.
Now, I also believe there should be compensation… but that’s not for this place…
169
ShowsOn
Rudd’s professional background is as a diplomat, and you don’t start with “hi, I believe in god the father, the son, and the holy f#@3ing ghost, you heathen!”
It was always a safe bet that KR was going to do ‘good’ things without asking us to genuflect (unlike many other ‘do gooders’). Nup, he’s consumately in charge of the nation, it’s not about his particular sect.
Well, the Victorian Liberals say this:
We believe in the inherent dignity, responsibility and potential of all Victorians. We believe that government must protect the freedoms of all Victorians and provide the opportunity for all people to achieve their full potential.
We believe in the fundamental freedoms of individuals and groups within society to think, to worship, to speak, to choose and to associate.
We believe in upholding the Constitution, parliamentary democracy, the democratic process and accountable government.
We believe in equality before the law.
We believe that families provide the most effective environment for individuals to achieve their full potential.
We believe in equal opportunities for all Australians in a tolerant and diverse society.
We believe in the protection of people who are vulnerable, in ill health, disadvantaged or in need, and in providing them with effective assistance.
We believe that the creation of wealth is essential for meeting our national and individual aspirations and that individual effort should be appropriately rewarded.
We believe that free enterprise will maximise economic growth and national prosperity.
We believe that where the private sector can deliver a service efficiently and fairly, an unnecessary burden should not be imposed on the tax payer.
We believe in the decentralisation and distribution of power and believe that local decisions are best made at the local level.
We believe in securing our national heritage and natural environment now and for future generations.
160 Flute, I think I just share your perverse sense of humour.
169 – Yes, an excellent position to adopt by Jefferson & co. Best to keep quiet about one’s imaginary friends in public. Leave them out of the meetings too, if they won’t be too hurt.
Michael @ 125, a member of what?
JV @ 163. A person’s religious beliefs can’t simply be neutralised whenever it suits. They will always form the basis of their value system. This is not something to be feared. Some of Labor’s (and the world’s) best leaders have had strong religious convictions. Problems arise when the holder of these beliefs believes that everyone else should hold them too and that those who do not are somehow lesser creatures to be villified or worse. Abbott, for example is a fundamentalist Catholic. Others are fundamentalist protestants (the Hillsong set). The American religious right is a sadly notable case in point. The fundamentalist mindset becomes dangerous when any act becomes permissable if it serves what is believed to be the best interests of whatever Deity or Cause is proclaimed. So far Australia has resisted such movements and I doubt it will arise to the same degree here. Though I do get concerned with the influence generated by the Exclusive Brethren and sundry other nutters of the far right. As for Mr Rudd, his religious values underpin his social justice and social democrat beliefs. All rather benign really.
ESJ – given your own somewhat eloquent beliefs on the subject (if I am remembering correctly) I find it odd that you are giving us:
‘Otherwise sit back and wait for Labor to make mistakes. Why commit yourself to anything until you see the colour of the IR legislation or how the “sorry” works.’
and
‘How many people do you think support an “apology” in Flynn or Solomon, ShowsOn?’
without blinking, questioning why your party would want to play partisan games with this issue, or even calling for some leadership from them.
Great to see KR went to Matt Price’s funeral in Perth.
Given what is on his plate ATM to take virtually a full day off to honor a great bloke says much about both Price and KR.
How is this relevant?
It’s how many that support it in the parliament that counts, and that would be a majority. So if the House has to divide, the Government motion would pass, making the opposition look petty, and making Malcolm Turnbull look like a hypocrite.
#177
We believe that it is our right to put in mediocre Opposition Leaders.
Ta for the link ESJ
We believe that for every drop of rain that falls a flower grows. AAAAhhhhhh…..
Just as well they are already out of their misery.
KR (165), you are spot on. The Liberals currently stand for nothing but privilege and more privilege for those already privileged, via the transfer of wealth from public to private hands.
Con artist that he was, Howard was the acceptable face of this belief, while misfits like People Skills, Tip and Lord Downer were/are the unacceptable face.
Mentioning the the words face and Half Nelson in the same sentence does no-one any favours, but there you go.
Um, just off the top of my head, but what does everyone think about apologising to the indigenous population first, and then as part of the apology, to all Australian people on behalf of all govts (past and present) for messing the whole thing up.
It would importantly differentiate between laying blame on mainstream Australia (which is where i think the opposition comes from) and instead put the blame on the govts of the past….
Jefferson of course authored a new version of the bible with all the mystical stuff relating to virgin births, and people returning from the dead removed.
Even though I am the Leader now, I still have the same views but I promote them where it’s appropriate.
Ferny @ 181 [As for Mr Rudd, his religious values underpin his social justice and social democrat beliefs. All rather benign really.]
I’ll put up with that if it doesn’t interfere, but would prefer if his ideas of justice and equality were underpinned by his own intellectual enquiry. You don’t need religion for a sense of compassion and belief in justice
183
MayoFeral Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 1:43 pm
Great to see KR went to Matt Price’s funeral in Perth.
Given what is on his plate ATM to take virtually a full day off to honor a great bloke says much about both Price and KR.
…but I suspect he won’t be attending the ‘professional’ funerals of either the Shamahan or the Albrechtgnome.
Does anyone have a list of the MPs who voted for which candidate in yesterday’s Liberal leadership race? They usually publish the lists of which MP voted for whom in the papers but I haven’t seen one around in the various publications today
I think people who say, ‘Well I’m still the same’ and all of that, they are deceiving themselves. I think we all change in a way.
But we have a representative democracy, so such a statement would implicitly blame previous generations of Australians for electing the people who carried out those ill thought out policies.
I’ve been laughing all day about the Libs deciding to put their nuts in a blender with Nelson and Bishop.
Couldnt have played it worse! Now they’re backtracking on recantations, Turnbull came close enough to ensure they are divided for 3 years, the Costelloites are still getting screwed, and thats without even factoring in Abbott.
I see a rough road ahead …
Yo Ho Ho, I’ve never imagined ’sorry’ to ever be the Government speaking for the Australian people. It’s about today’s government apologising for the wrongs of previous governments.
In relation to apologies from the Australian people, a registry could be set up for people to record their acceptance of a ‘peoples’ apology’. This way, anyone who didn’t wish to apologise wouldn’t need to.
192, I think Shanahan has already started sucking up to Labor.
Haven’t seen it. The interesting thing revealed in The Australian was that a lot of NSW conservatives who were going to support Abbott supported Nelson instead.
Abbott probably asked them to, given that Nelson will be easier to dislodge at a later date than Turnbull.
Once the apology happens, people will realise the sky hasnt fallen in – and it was just a decent thing to do.
Then the Libs will look like complete pillocks, and worse, irrelevant ones. cant be undone.
They should have stuck with Mal’s u-turn.
ESJ: shows how little you know again, Colbran’s opponent in the preselection was female, so she couldn’t have been Union Guy #3.
The preselection was done under normal ALP process in May last year, long before Rudd took over and even longer before Rudd gave the National Exec the right to overturn any preselection and put in a candidate of their own choosing. Vote was something like over 200 to less than 100. Who says the ALP machine favours union officials?
The whole thing in Herbert isn’t anti-Maccas, it’s the defence force vote that is voting Liberal. Remember the swing in Herbert was 6.2% to the ALP, which is above the overall swing.
ESJ: if you’re talking about hack political candidates winning seats, Alex Hawke comes to mind – did anyone else notice there was quite a swing against the Liberals in Mitchell?
PD1981, about as close as I got to was this article in the Age today
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/backroom-deal-seals-nelson-bid/2007/11/29/1196037074766.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
apparently, Nick Minchin was crucial to persuading 6 WA voters to go Nelson way
194 Brendan’s going to morph into a deluded Tabitha as soon as he learns the art of the couplet.
Why do soldiers vote Liberal?
Howard Hater because they want to fight.
199
ShowsOn
It was obvious that Tony People SKills (or TPS, Terminal Papal Syndrome) was going to set his crew against Malbull. Imagine a ‘liberal’ running the Liberal Party…oh my god, he just could not let that happen!
Here we have John of Melbourne confirming the Liberal Party as the party of war. How flattering.
I got a questionnaire from the “your rights @work” people the other night. One of the questions asked what can th YR@W campaign do or continue with now the election has been won?
I responded that the Australian union movement needs to do a PR campaign to lift its public profile as it is susseptable to being bashed by the media as well as the Liberals as a unloved 19th century OLGER that destroys jobs & wealth.
The union movement has helped Australian worker with attaining better pay & conditions for over 100 years now but it need to define itself better in 21st century to its relevance in relation to IR, social justice & public perception.
Australia needs better outcomes for its workers thru its unions. Unions that not only perform in IR advocacy but also are seen as a positive contributer to the economic viability to our country fortunes as well.
HH: All I can work out is that something in the early 90’s turned them off Labor and they’ve been following the Libs since, but I think generally the defence will go the way of the government once a government changes. This is because no one accuses spending money on defence as pork barreling.
Oh well, the residents of Herbert won’t be getting any government largesse for the next 3 years – that’s what they get for reelecting that prick Lindsay.
JV @ 191 It’s not an either/or scenario but a both/and scenario. Rudd’s religious beliefs and his social views re justice etc would, I’m sure, be informed by both his faith and his intellectual enquiry. His is not an unintelligent faith. Nor is he a fundamentalist who accepts his religious views unquestioningly and forces them upon others who are expected to also suspend their disbelief and submit. As I say, Mr Rudd’s faith is part of who he is. His decisions will undoubtedly be based to large degree on his values which will be based, in part at least, on his faith. You will find that this will make him firmly committed to social justice – hence his recent concerns re the homeless.
They won’t even get the stupid car race Lindsay and Howard promised them LOL
Howard Hater, there is something inherently conservative about having an army-oulook despite the fact that some of the best ALP men are ‘into’ the whole defence thing… like Kimbo is a big defence history nut, and is apparently going to Uni of WA next year as a Professorial Fellow in the Politics Department.
But really, you’d have to be into the whole individualism and self-discipline philosophy and that is what both the army and the Libs have in common. That, and a belief that wars solve a lot of foreign policy problems.
I still have very fond memories of my childhood when I was sitting on the verandah with my dad and grandad singing those moving and uplifting songs:
Avanti popolo, alla riscossa
Bandiera rossa, bandiera rossa
Avanti popolo, alla riscossa
Bandiera rossa trionferà
and
???? ??, ????????? ?????????
??????? ????? ?????,
??????? ?????? ????? ?????,
?? ???????? — ???????!
? ???? ???? ??????? ??????
??? ?????? ???? ? ???????, —
??? ??? ??? ??? ?? ?????? ??????
????? ????? ????? ?????.
|: ??? ???? ??? ?????????
? ??????????? ???.
? ???????????????
????????? ??? ???????!
Howard C at 177
Unfortunately these won’t stack up as sustainable now, in Victoria or anywhere else. Every single one of these points was trashed over the entirety of the past 11 years. Look at the 3rd & 4th ones for a start:
‘We believe in upholding the Constitution, parliamentary democracy, the democratic process and accountable government.
‘We believe in equality before the law.’
It’s back to the drawing board at Lib headquarters I’m afraid (I wonder where that is)
200
Lefty E
Agree completely about the ‘apology’.
It’s not a problem to try and heal some awful race relations by expressing sorry to a people who have known so much more than a bearable share of it.
Any heartless bastard that cannot see that, or wants to hide behind some jibberish semantics is not qualified for ‘public’ life. We, the public, know what it means, and we do not need some suburban solicitor to parse it for us.
And yet a lot of soldiers/ADF recruits come from working class backgrounds, which makes you think they’d be more disposed to vote Labor. Puzzling to say the least.
Yes, Shanahan’s re-ducation has been swift, but others need some time to accept that the natural party of government is no longer the party of government.
La Trioli’s radio programme in Sydney has been wall to wall Liberals all week, bravely explaining why the heaven’s have, if only temporarily, realigned themselves.
And this morning she had the wonderfully inpartial Bruce Shepard ex-AMA president explaining just why Half Nelson was deserving of sainthood, and at the same time ponting out that the AMA was not a union. Heavens no.
I think that it’s all been a bit much for Virginia, what with her party’s defeat, and the meltdown of her great friend Caroline the slapper Overington.
This morning she referred to the Liberal leader as Brendan Turnbull, then tried to explain it away be stating that Turnbull was the deputy anyway, so she was half right.
Please try to keep up Virginia. You are a Walkely winning journalist, after all. Just like Caroline
Funnily enough, because the Defence Department is always exempted from efficiency measures / budget cuts that apply to other public service agencies, it is the most wasteful inefficient department in the Public Service by a country mile.
They have had qualified audit reports in terms of their financial reporting for about 6 years in a row now. That means that the auditor can’t be satisfied that what they have reported as their financial position is in fact correct. Should be a national scandal but no-one seems to care.
It could do with a fine-tooth comb run over it and a lot of the waste trimmed. Never happen though, no government can be seen to be ’skimping’ on our national defence.
215 translation from Russian
There has never been any saviour of the world,
Nor deities, nor emperors on which to depend.
To create Mankind’s happiness
We must entirely depend on ourselves!
We shall retake the fruits of our labour,
And let the mind burst free from its prison cell.
Let the flames in the furnace burn red-hot,
For only when the iron is hot will we succeed in forging it!
This is the final struggle,
Unite together towards tomorrow,
The Internationale
Shall definitely be realised.
Kirribilli Removals @ 192
I would. With a ‘professional’ wooden stake, just to make sure the buggers really were ‘professionally’ cactus!
And then I’d start applying some of my time to working out how to rid this country of Rupert’s dark influence. IMuHO, we don’t need foreigners pursuing their own international agendas interfering in our national affairs.
Howard Hater…it is time to change your nom de plume. What about Rudd Relisher?
Sorry about the many typos in 219.
HH: Actually, Rudd promised the money first. Please tell me that Labor is going to have a Senator based in Townsville. That way they Senator can take credit for what the government is about to do for NQ, especially Townsville.
HA David: I still love hating Howard, but I guess I should change it LOL
Nothing that Greg Combet cant fix Howard Hater. He can deploy some of that unctuous charm on those poor rubes in the ADF hey?
Well if you are going to do anything about it the first year of a new government would be the time. Plus it has the added political benefit that the new Leader of the Opposition was the last Minister for Defence, so if Tanner / Swan can prove there is extensive waste in Defence, on top of the Super Hornets, they can lay the blame with Nelson.
Whtas the latest with Caroline Overthetop? Has she had a breakdown and is that that why she is on ‘leave’?
Whilst looking at the veritable source Wikipedia this morning I noticed Stephen Smith listed as Minister for Western Australia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Rudd_Ministry
Please tell me this is a mistake. Otherwise they may as well have named it “Minister for Win us Some Seats”.
Here you are David Charles: new name LOL
KR….I always love your work. Just go easy on us solicitors and our parsing
222
MayoFeral
Oh yes, slaying the Jabberwocky (oh, frabjous day!!!) was one thing, but smothering Rupert the Bear, cautiously and deftly, will be another thing entirely.
ferny 212
Sorry but I think that faith in the supernatural is basically unintelligent and irrational.
I give Jason Young a good chance of winning Bowman: the postals have actually gone his way, unlike for his Labor colleagues in other places.
209 Unions should have to justify their existence as a service provider to the workplace. They will have to wean themselves off the politics and the Labor party and learn to just deal with the injustices, OH&S, how to prepare a productiivity case etc. The asbestos campaign is a great example.
Uni unions have the same problem.
Matt Price was offered the job of Mark Latham’s press secretary:
“[Price was offered jobs at] Nine, Seven, editor of the Bulletin, West Australian, Mark Latham’s press secretary, host of Media Watch, the list goes on”
How good of Rudd to attend Matt Price’s funeral, and he’s going to Bernie Banton’s funeral next week also.
Surely as a union official AG01 – you can acknowledge that the “link” hurts unions more than it helps?
Adrian (#219)
Has there been any word on the future of the Slapper, Ms Overington?
Wonder what someone has to do to get sacked from the Australian?…….oh yeah, demonstrate journalistic professionalism.
229 Tory Crimes
I love Caroline. She loved me too every time I gave her an exclusive story
What have you heard? I don’ know what’s happened to her as she seems to have gone AWOL.
I miss Matt.
Brendan Nelson: I’d be watching out for those knives in your back, Mr Turnball has a lot of them
HA David: I still love hating Howard, but I guess I should change it LOL
Problem is none of the current crop seem worthy of investing anything more than contempt…
234 – jaundiced view: faith is by its nature irrational.
241 – i think ms overington “wants to spend more time with her family”.
HH; a lot of working-class people vote Liberal, think ‘Howard’s battlers’
ed@bennelong: I have no idea how on Earth you can explain why you think unions should just be service providers when their biggest role is in advocacy for the workers/students. And I don’t just say that as a former union staffer/student politician either…. You sound Tory-esque in seeing an advocacy body as ’service provider’, which is exactly what the Libs tried to do with the VSU at unis.
Ed@b. Its hard for the unions to separate from the Labor party when the Labor party was born from the union movement. Unions that dont perform normally amalgamate with a larger or similar union.
I guess there are some union bosses & organiser that can lift their game. It always good to have a union that shows up when required rather than one thats in the bosses pocket & pay only lip service.
Progressive 243 I am not scared of knives. I love using scalpels and I have successfully operated on Malcolm’s brain by separating his 2 frontal lobes. I have made him what he is today.
I remember fondly when I had the same operation and it was so much easier afterwards to forgive myself for my communist upbringing. I recommend it highly to all and sundry.
JV @ 234 It is certainly irrational but some highly intelligent people have chosen faith over reason. Human’s are complex creatures. Sometimes pure reason isn’t enough and our decisions are based on something more…or less. For the record I have qualifications in theology and in law. These days I’m an agnostic lawyer. I’ve met the good, bad and the very ugly from the God botherer set. The mistake we must not make is to assume that all people who profess a faith are somehow stupid or inferior. If we do that we simply become intellectual fundamentalists and fall ino the same hole as the religious fanatics. It’s not so much what a person says they believe that interests me; it’s how they treat others and the contribution they make to the community that matters most.
You have to laugh: so much for Moneybags Malcolm’s ability to count numbers LOL
Brendan, have you always had so much brain-space in your head or is this an illusion caused by receding temples?
Labor got most of them back in 1998. Howard’s Battlers is really a bit of a myth created by Andrew Robb.
Ohh contraire…. Turnbull engineered it perfectly!!!
He went from far left no hoper to “leader in waiting” in one fell swoop. And left Nelson to carry the can.
Keating lost his first challenge. As did Rudd.
Well, on Sunday he repeated his Republicanism, said the opposition should support ratification of Kyoto, and say Sorry.
It seems he thought he was running for the Labor leadership – given that Nelson was one of the other candidates, that is somewhat understandable.
G’day ESJ. I am not an official for any union but I have benefited for being a member & getting better pay & conditions & service thru the unions that I have been a member off. I have been served well.
As I have mention before the union movement needs a decent PR campaign so no negative perceived so called ‘links’ or any other aspersions be casted upon it by malicious detractors.
ShowsOn: and then they were lost again to Howard in 2004 usurped by the low-interest-rates call…. Howard’s battlers as a term may be purely PR exercise, but I think voting intentions of the Australian working class are always far more conservative than any ‘false consciousness’ theory can explain.
ferny grover, most people don’t “choose” to have [religious] faith. most are born into it. a bit like how it used to be with political party support – horatio nelson being an exception, it would seem.
rates analyst, you might be crediting malcolm turnbull with much more political nouse than he deserves.
Herbert has blown out from 64 to 78 votes!
Popcorn @ 258. Nelson’s history tells us that he believes whetever the loudest voice and his self-interest tells him to believe. While I hear what you say about being born into religion, there are many – including those born into religious families – who do make a personal choice to accept or adopt a particular belief system.
Jaundiced View – I believe you are arguing the Liberals turned their back on these things in government?
Why can’t they admit their mistakes and move on?
Oppositions love accountability, and when they become governments they forget about it. Howard, Bracks, you name it, they forget it.
What is needed is a government with some testicular (or the female equivilent) fortitude to introduce these reforms:
1. Speaker of the House to be an independent, or if this is not possible (no independents or independents refuse) speakers resigns from the party room (as in UK).
2. Fixed four year terms (this one is more about opposition testicular fortitude).
3. Ministers to be forced to address questions during question time
Turnbull is one of the few “players” in this arena I have met personally.
I have also had dealings with Goldman Sachs. Anyone who can succeed there knows how to work the numbers.
I suspect he was trying to win – but he made the gamble knowing the “loss” from losing was not so bad.
He got a pretty big promotion too, you’ll notice. Envirnoment -> Treasury.
Why not 5 year terms with a full senate election?
Wont happen because the majors would hate to lose Senate seats to the minor parties.
Horatio is a perfect name. Great illusion to the last man standing too. And his last line in Hamlet:
‘Even while men’s minds are wild: lest more mischance
On plots and errors happen.’
Watch out for Mal, Brendan!
Howard C: How do you force someone to answer a question, especially if the question is not asked in good faith and is merely a political trap?
mm, ferny grover, i think that 99.9% repeater of those who have faith that one god or another exists have had rather extensive conditioning…
re nelson: i agree with you – he believes what it suits him to believe.
The whole idea of having half Senate elections is to make it difficult for a popular PM to sweep all before him and control both houses. A full Senate election puts all your HOR and Senate eggs in one basket.
Ferny Grover:
If a question asks for a figure, then you should provide a figure. There have been numerous examples recently in Victorian Parliament where the government has been asked how much Public Hospital Boards have lost during the sub-prime crisis, and the answers generally have been “The board make their own decisions and are accountable”. That isn’t answering the question.
If you have a independent speaker, they should be able to rule the questions that are not asked in good faith out of order.
It’s a shame about George Colbran, Labor could have done with a
small businessman in the parliament! Oh well, at least he’s got his McDonalds franchise to go back to. Pity Mike Bailey who gave up a good job on the ABC for no reward.
Pancho 252 Ever since my lobotomy I have plenty airspace now, thank you very much. My headshape shows my brain capacity before the operation. I used to vote Labor then and still do.
Btw, I let in on another secret. My grey temples are fake. I dye them every day to give myself an aura of maturity which belies my age and good looks…
I am sure Mike Bailey will be looked after HH. Theyd be mad not 2.
Thanks for the link JB -much appreciated
I’m somewhat disappointed that they don’t have a list of MPs and whom they voted for -they did with the Beazley/Crean, Beazley/Latham and Beazley/Rudd leadership spills and they did with the Hewson/Downer leadership spills back in the mid-1990s. It’s interesting to see who voted for which candidate
There aint no such animal.
Brilliant picture of Julie Bishop here: http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/super-ministry-bagged/2007/11/30/1196392063221.html
One of the best politician photo’s I’ve ever seen. You can just imagine the evil laugh.
Paul K,
What about Richard Torbay in the NSW Parliament. He’s an independent…
At least you have Belinda HH.
Pigs ar*e he’s an independent Swing Lowe. He joined the ALP and resigned when they worked out it was better for him to be “independent”.
Agree with all 3 of those Howard. But these don’t give the Libs any reason to be.
I still want to know in 2 simple sentences – what do they stand for?
That motherhood statement from Victoria before doesn’t cut the mustard. Everyone says they stand for those things.
Belinda Neale is no consolation prize LOL More like the booby prize
Robertson will be the first seat Rudd loses in 2010
You mean there are no issues which he is passionate about? No issues where he has a strong opinion or even a bias on? He’s even handed on every single issue is he? How many of these people can you find in Parliament?
Tony Windsor should be speaker of Federal Parliament
Pancho 275
Julie is correct. Education is too important to play politics with. And let me just day that under my Govt, Uni fees will never go too far above 200k to 300k.
OK one last time as punishment for that comment Progressive/HH:
Belinda has lived in Woy Woy Bay with husband John for over 20 years. Together they have raised their two sons on the Central Coast.
Belinda has experience as a Gosford City Councilor and as a Senator. Her priorities have always been local jobs, roads, services and infrastructure. She has a practical working knowledge of government to offer the electorate of Robertson.
Belinda established and ran a small business in Erina. Belinda knows that viable local businesses and a strong economy mean more local jobs.
She was a Foundation Board member of Central Coast Mariners, and is deeply committed to the Umina United Soccer Club. Belinda has been involved in many local groups including the Community Tenancy Scheme, the Central Coast Women’s Health Centre and Child Abuse Prevention Services.
Belinda’s work and life experiences will provide fresh thinking for the Central Coast. She will be a strong local voice and a vital part of Kevin Rudd’s team.
Ferny – Have you read Sam Harris’ book about the role of moderate religion in extremism or the Dawkins one ? The whole ministry should read them.
It’s a bit warm here today. I feel like a refreshing glass of lemon, lime and Edward St John!
jaundiced view… they stand for making money and getting ahead… I thought that was pretty evident. Just reduce everything to dollars and that’s what they stand for. At least as far as I can tell after 11 years of Liberal rule… unless it was only Howard that was like that.
ESJ: You lifted that off the ALP website!
Rates analyst is incorrect in regard to Rudd.
He only made one challenge.
GEEZ ESJ -What sort of creature are you that you can inflict that excrescence on us yet again?
Pancho 275
Yes brilliant photo of Bishop. Did they airbrush out her cape and broomstick?
Jaundiced – OK, I’ll have a bash
The Liberals stand for the belief that nothing happens well in the country if the economy isn’t working. So let’s get that right first and foremost.
Then they believe that people should be allowed to live their lives without needless government intervention. They should be able to focus on their daily lives, and shouldn’t need to feel ashamed about being primarily focussed on backyard issues.
Now I’m sure you’ll criticise this for one reason or another, but I had a crack. What do the ALP stand for?
Ferny Grover aka Neilbris
My particular apologies, as I meant some ‘particular’ suburban solicitor! LOL
OK I’ll stop manic cackling now jaundiced view.
But can you guess who will get the lions share of the marginal seats spend in NSW in 2010?
Paul K,
There is no person in any parliament anywhere that would fit that description. If they did, they wouldn’t be a politician…
That’s easy Howard C
jobs,jobs,jobs
Having to decide whether your Liberal Party is ‘liberal’ or ‘conservative’ seems, by the elevation of the stature impaired Horatio “Super” Hornet, to have been settled in favour of the latter.
So we need to modify a quote:
“There go my men. I must follow them. For I am their leader.”
– Attributed to an Italian general
…to this:
“There goes a slim majority of my party. I must follow them. For I am their leader.”
- Horatio Hornet
Thanks for that Howrd – I’m not going to criticise it because you are the only one to have a go all day. I’ve written up 15 documents in my office waiting. As far as what the ALP stands for, I would be presumptuous to answer, seeing I’m not a member, but their principles have certainly changed a lot in recent decades too, since the light on the hill went out.
Everyone knows Brendan Nelson, the Simon Crean of the Liberal Party, is just there as a seat warmer for Malcolm Turnbull in about 12 months time.
The Libs will also try and block WhatChoices from being scrapped early next year, so Brendan Nelson will carry the baggage of this, yet WhatChoices will be scrapped anyway when the new senate comes in July.
Then when Malcolm Turnbull wins the leadership post he can say he wanted to support WhatChoices being scrapped so he can’t be blamed for Nelson’s stupidity.
Jaundiced – no worries. I thought it was better for them to answer it themselves before I had a bash. I have no idea exactly what the ALP stands for.
And because jaundiced made full disclosure – I am a paid member of the Liberal Party.
Howard C:
“The Liberals stand for the belief that nothing happens well in the country if the economy isn’t working. So let’s get that right first and foremost.”
Well Labor believe that too the last time I checked.
“Then they believe that people should be allowed to live their lives without needless government intervention. They should be able to focus on their daily lives, and shouldn’t need to feel ashamed about being primarily focussed on backyard issues.”
Backyard issues? Huh?
I assume you know that the Howard Government was the most regulatory government in Australian history right? What about government intervention in social issues? Are they against that too?
To be honest, I don’t think either party stands for much other than being in power… you just have to pick who you think will do the least damage.
I think Turnbull is in good position. He only just lost without appearing to give anything away, and was upfront about some of his beliefs. These set the boundaries for the future if he becomes the leader.
294 ESJ – having watched the whole excruciating episode of Belinda’s candidature here in Robertson, I doubt that a billion dollars and a carriage to Sydney for every commuter would be enough to save her skin next time.
Regarding Mr Kroger’s suggestions, in Queensland we already have a process where candidates are vetted and approved by State Division prior to being allowed to stand for preselection.
I would support branch amalgamations and a national constitution making the party a Federal party rather than a collection of State divisions.
I definitely support a merger with the Nationals. Three cornered contests and duplication of party admin is senseless. The results in Leichhardt and Flynn were bad and the division of scarce Coalition resources to fight three cornered contests unforgivable.
I think 12 months is a very aggressive timeframe for this project but now is the time to get started.
Interesting: the new member for Dawson, James Bidgood, is a financial director of a chain of medical centres. Probably the surprise new star of the Rudd win on November 24. Did anyone predict Deeanne Kelly would lose the seat?
JV @ 285 I’m no longer in the clergy (it was no fun having left-wing views in a far right denomination!). The law is far more honest. Yes I have read Dawkins but not Harris. I doubt that either would have an impact on too many of ‘the faithful’. Faith is basically a suspension of disbelief, a disconnection of the rational, and so such works are seen as wordly attacks on the bastion of their beliefs (and their God) and are ignored.
Corangamite’s gone back off the “close seats” list.
Sean Welsh… your preferred Liberal leader in Queensland?
Bring Back CL’s Blog:
I’m sure I read that Rudd was the almost laughable third candidate in one of the earlier leadershp contests.
He withdrew before the ballot but Rudd was definitely “in the ring” in at least one of the leadership ballots before the one he won.
I’m trying to find a reference but googling “Rudd” is not really helping right at the moment…..
PD: perhaps revealing the numbers for this particular vote may be seen as too risky given that everyone knows Nelson is on shaky ground already?
Perhaps we could have fun and play a guessing game: clearly what we now know is that WA Libs voted for Nelson and were given a deputy spot in return….
He was thinking about it but withdrew and Iron Mark won!
148 Had to do some work!!
I agree it would be a seismic shift for the Union movement to separate itself from the Labor movement. It seems to me though that the inevitable consequence of the lessening role of Unions, lessening membership, gradual sidelining by Labor etc all point to one inevitable conclusion.
Your survey response is appropriate for the short-medium term, but longer term a radical approach will be required to continue to be relevant.
Unions can build a strong narrative once they purge their worst elements and embark on a service-oriented approach rather coming at workplace issues skewed by the employer-employee relationship.
Bit like the Liberals really. What is their agenda now?
Brendan Nelson has just been renamed:
Brendan Seat Warmer Nelson, opposition seat warmer of the Liberal Party
Update on Flynn:
ALP now 636 ahead
Go Chris Trevor!
On the updated figures, Labor looks like it will hold Flynn but lose Swan.
It is now leading in the pre-polls and absentee ballots in Flynn but still trail on the postals. However, most postals have been counted, whilst there are about 5000 absentee ballots to go (and 3000 pre-polls).
However, in Swan, Labor is trailing in all three – pre-polls, postals and absentees. Looks like Wilkie will be the only Labor incumbent to lose their seat this election…
Ferny- I know I’ve had them at my door, in pairs, badly dressed – and their eyes glaze over when you attempt to discuss their unfortunate religious affliction. The zealots are one thing, but I just find it weird and unsettling for apparently smart people to have such a large blind spot – particularly amongst politicians in power.
Bring Back CL’s Blog:
Excatly – but it meant the next time there was a challenge everyone was talking about Rudd as a possible candidate.
Turnbull has achieved the same thing – only better. He’s also got a massive promotion. (well, compared to Opposition Spokesman for the Environment)
I didnt realise Robertson had gone off the close seats list too. Called for the ALP.
“Did anyone predict Deeanne Kelly would lose the seat?”
Yes
It’s a shame about Kim Wilkie – WA better swing back to Labor next time.
Oh, and Maxine has definitely got Bennelong. There’s 4300 votes left to be counted (including 780 provisionals) and she’s got a 2000+ vote lead. It’s over there…
Ruawake: did you have a bet on Dawson?
I’ve just been reading the bios of James Bidgood and Chris Trevor: not exactly the standard union hacks!
Swing Lowe
It aint over in Bennelong until Sportsbet pay me out!!
I can confirm that Ruawake was the only person in my seat prediction competition who picked Dawson as a labor gain !
NB,
On that logic, Lowe, Parramatta and Page aren’t over either, as I haven’t been paid out by Sportingbet on those electorates either…
84-64-2 looks like the final count.
I put a lazy 100 on Dawson after the 59-41 Newspoll in September. More guess than knowledge though. Odds were 7.25 to 1.
Nice one Ruawake … ahhh …. smells like … VICTORY
I think the easiest thing to predict all things being equal is a strong swing to the ALP in the next election.
Malcolm then replaces Half Nelson and goes on to win the election after that. That isn’t a prediction merely hopeful speculation
Swing Lowe… yes, Howard would need over 70% of the remaining votes to come close to winning the seat. Extremely unlikely. A fine bookend to a morally bankrupt government.
I have to say, it feels good knowing that that man is now completely irrelevant.
Can you buy me lunch Edward ? I’m hungry.
Sure, are you in Sydney dodger?
Libs 4 votes in front in Solomon now!
JV – Most people have blind spots. I cultivate several myself. Theirs happens to be religion. There is no point in using reason to try and disturb the irrational, so I’d save my breath on those who turn up at your door. As I say, religion is harmless, and can even contribute to humanity (look at the work of Mother Therese – and Tim Costello!). It’s the contribution made to society that matters, not what they say they believe.
Workchoices bad = Mackay swings to Labor. Thus my thoughts on Dawson.
330 BBCLB
Chances are that Malcolm will replace Nelson in this term, then have a two election strategy to try and unseat Rudd. For the Libs to have any chance though they’ll need to do some serious soul searching.
That said, Beazley gave Howard a run for his money first time out, but Beazley was always able to project an image of inherent decency an therefore trust which IMHO Turnbull may struggle to match.
It IS a shame about Wilkie in Swan…. I cannot believe it (even though I am a sandgroper) that WA populace can be sooooo uneducated to vote Liberal as a protest against the ALp state government. Apart from the mining boom, that is the only possible reason I can think of.
ESJ… are you sure?
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-307.htm
To me, it still looks like they’re 262 votes behind.
Unfortunately I’m in Adelaide Edward, however next time I’m in Sydney it’s a date. We can drink to the realignment of Australian politics to a better place.
JB take heart, there was a 2% swing to Labor in WA. Just good marginal campaigning by the tories if Wilkie goes.
ESJ was just tricking – a chaser type stunt.
only kidding about solomon
ALP in front by 260 according to the AEC…
JB -you are probably right about the possible reasons they haven’t revealed the voting list. It would nevertheless make for interesting reading
I think either the Age or the SMH said that Costello had voted for Nelson -which I am not surprised about given that Turnbull had been undermining Costello’s claim to succeed Howard at every chance he got. I would assume Costello’s supporters probably split their votes between the two candidates while the Right united behind Nelson
It’s always a disadvantage to one of the leadership contenders when the other leadership contender is also from your state -it means that you don’t have the voting bloc of the MPs from your state solidly behind you
The Senator is pleased with your work Edward. When we’re next in government you will get a parliamentary secretary position of your choice.
Dont you find its the Senators rages that are the hardest thing to cope with LTEP?
ESJ – but did you get onto the Admiral yesterday at 10/1? That was juicy – the decision to punt up was ably assisted by William Bowe’s assessment of the situation, I should also say. I might spend some of the winnings tonight in fact.
The Senator demands more Chaser-style stunts, particularly if they’re as successful as the Lindsay experiment.
No janudiced view didnt. Only at general elections, party room ballots way too unpredictable and more prone to treachery, dishonesty and doubledealing of the ” Sure I am going to vote for you” type.
Anyone like to elaborate on the below in today’s Crikey ? (Yes I’m a squatter. I’m waiting for ESJ to pay my subscription with his Dawson winnings)
“1. What Alexander Downer really thinks of Penny Wong”
I’m hoping this is something homophobic, it would simply make me hate the idiot son even more.
Crikeyers, what did Downer say about Wong?
I love it when people talk about me…it makes me feel all warm and fuzzy
Mean, diminished and out of touch: Why won’t Nelson say sorry?
Professor Lowitja O’Donoghue writes in Crikey:
I am saddened to hear that the new opposition leader, Brendan Nelson, will not say Sorry to Aboriginal people. But I am not surprised.
Brendan Nelson represents a party that is out of touch. They just don’t get it. He would do well to talk to former Liberal Prime Minister, Malcolm Fraser, to learn something about genuine liberal values.
Nelson’s are the mean-spirited responses of denial that diminish him as a person and diminish Australia as a nation. At the very historical moment when new, courageous collaboration is possible, this new Liberal leader, just like Howard before him, fuels the fires of division.
PD – the fact that the vote was fairly close reflects the state of the Libs at the moment. The party is not at all all guns blazing for reform (as Turnbull would have liked) nor is it totally pro-Right (what Nelson would have liked.)
Marise Payne and her ilk were more likely to vote Turnbull I’d say. Not sure if Costello has any supporters though
would you like me to post subscription details on bugmenot Sykes?
Given two senators were late, and Peter Lyndsay was not given a vote imagine if the vote had been held on Monday rather than yesterday.
There could’ve been a tied vote.
ESJ 2 Senators were overseas when the vote was taken, and could have voted for Malcolm making a 44-45 result possible, but i think Lord Nelson will be good. I say bring on the earring bring on the motorbike and bring back the Mo lol!
I’m worried about Dutton, he’s just 136 votes ahead with 92% counted, surely he will hold on?
A tip from some well connected friends in Canberra – Shergold has informed Rudd he won’t be looking to renew his contract in February and has asked to take Leave from as soon as possible until the end of his contract.
So that would be the second big APS scalp since the change of Government, with McIlwain being the first – he resigned last Wednesday.
LTEP how could Lindsay not be given a vote but Laming and Tollner were??? They were behind too??
I thought Shergold had said as much publicly.
The Senator made sure the right people voted perhaps Glen?
We all know who Tollner voted for and it wasn’t Mr. T.
Maybe the Liberal party could have a facebook election in future?
Howard C @ 37
then 39…..are you being your own devil’s advocate?
I like Chaser style stunts, especially the ones that break half a dozen AEC laws like the one Karen Chijoff and Jackie Kelly tried pulling off… real thigh slapping stuff those jokes!
So if after the votes are declared Tollner doesn’t get a spot… that could well change the votes. Also, a horde of senators will be gone on 1 July ‘08 which will change the dynamic all over again.
The joys of a close result…
Dickson could come down to the provisionals – but Dutton still looks favourite to hang on…
366 – It seems basically a case of Mal choosing when, not if, he wants it.
Pancho, if you were Malcolm and u wanted to be PM, why would you try now when chances are you’ll not get the chance, he’ll wait and bid his time.
The two things i disagree with Malcolm on are the Republic and Saying ’sorry’, and Nelson dislikes both of these so i like Lord Nelson better, though Malcolm could also do a good job for us.
I wonder if Laming and Tollner lose their seats do their votes count?
Yesterday you liked Malcolm better Glen. What’s with that? And the republic and sorry are your winners? Are you just falling into line with your branding, or what is your philosophical reasoning here? Also WHEN Mal takes the job from Brendan, will you like him better again?
heh hehh heh ESJ – now that would be entertaining..
Some of the Libs are not open books – I am still in two minds when guessing who all the Libs newbies voted for..That would be a dilemma even for a seasoned politician
Pancho, maybe its a case of I liked him before I disliked him.
Has anybody done an analysis of what the Senate would like like after a Double Dissolution election, assuming voting was the same as in this election?
I haven’t done it – would take me too long.
The smaller quotas in a DD would make it v interesting – I’m pretty sure the Greens would hold the balance of power.
Mother Theresa wasn’t the selfless saint she and her supporters claimed. If you can read Christopher Hitchens book ‘The Missionary Position: Mother Teresa in Theory and Practice’ In her case charity did begin at home, and pretty much ended there too.
Are you correct that Tollner and Lamming voted yesterday? If they lose their seats, aren’t these invalid votes?
No HH they would be “correct” votes in the Liberal party!
Mother Therese? I didn’t realise Ms Rein was someone who’d contributed so much to humanity.
I don’t think you can retrospectively change the result of a ballot ! You either get a vote or you don’t !
Did Howard send in a postal vote?
Sykesie you are being naive now!
That was after i heard about what Malcolm said on AM, he would have taken us too far to the left. I knew he was a wet but he is ’soaking’, he needs more time in the Tories to water down some of his political views.
Pancho i’ve always thought that we have no responsibility to accept blame for the stolen generation as much as what was done was wrong, and i’ve never supported a republic because are system as it is works wells why f it up that’s my view.
Malcolm Lost the leadership when he made that interview trashing Howie, we dont want to end up like Labor after 1996 when they disowned their past, we wont. That doesnt mean we wont change some of our views but there was a lot to like about Howie so much in fact Rudd copied him to win government.
Grey – yes, but it was invalid. It just had “NOT PETE” scrawled across it. And a smiley face.
Both sides Malcolm and Brendan allowed them to vote, even when they were behind according to the AEC, so i wonder if their votes are valid i suppose they are since they’re sitting members and have yet to be defeated but still maybe Laming voted for Turnbull and Tollner for Nelson and it wouldnt matter but maybe it would.
What hope do I have ESJ? I’m 32 years old after this week and naive. The shame.
But ESJ: should people who actually haven’t officially won their seats be allowed to vote in a leadership ballot? You can bet Tollner and Lamming voted for Nelson – Turnball might have reason to complain and ask for another ballot
Glen 369 thanks for your ongoing support. I know you are a true believer and believed in me from the beginning. You are a true friend and comrade who not only talks about solidarity but writes about it every day.
My Dad Des, was a marine chief steward who was active in the Seamen’s Union and my grandfather was a communist and co-founder of the Clerks Union. So in our family we always believed in solidarity forever.
Glen, true comrades are for life and are not disposable once you move up the grease pole and become Leader.
It’s not about your responsibility Glen. It is about the Australian government opening a dialogue with the most disadvantaged group of Australians.
Dr Nelson, shouldn’t you be spending less time blogging and more time getting used to life in opposition?
any predictions of final Labor vote… it is nearly down to 52.9%…. my guess is 52.8% final, for a swing of 5.5%
I think we can make up for those injustices in improving their healthcare and job opportunities than with saying ’sorry’ Pancho.
If you want someone to blame, blame the politicians of the day not those of today.
It’s not about blaming. It’s about maturity, respect, and what the disadvantaged group is seeking.
Or we could do both. Saying “sorry” won’t cost a cent more.
I’ll also blame the politicians opposing the apology, which currently includes the entire Liberal and National parties, perhaps with the exception of Malcolm Turnbull.
Also:
‘I knew he was a wet but he is ’soaking’, he needs more time in the Tories to water down some of his political views.’
won’t that make him wetter?
392 [I’ll also blame the politicians opposing the apology, which currently includes the entire Liberal and National parties, perhaps with the exception of Malcolm Turnbull.]
I’m sure that is the way it will pan out Showson. The tories are going to look very silly before, during and after this one.
Progressive 388 I just love being the Leader. I can tell all my underlings what to do and where to go and I can run the show from this blog. What better place to hang out than here where my only real comrades hang out: Glen, ESJ, LTEP, S Kaye, Nostilsdames, Tabitha, Isabella, De Nial etc…
The politicians of last week took away the CDEP jobs, put them onto welfare so that could be withheld – brilliant – if you’re a fascist.
Brendan was your win brought about by intelligent design ?
One can be naive on a question or one can be generally naive Syksie.
I can’t believe that the Liberals and Nationals will force a division on the issue of a National Apology to Indigenous Australians. They will just look mean and petty forcing the speaker to call for a vote.
Observer – I think that manuever had something to do with ‘minimal government’ and ‘cutting red tape’.
To Nelson’s credit, he opposed the teaching of intelligent design in science classes when Minister for Education.
To his dis-credit, he didn’t seem to mind if it was taught in other classes.
I believe that I am a product of intelligent design.
My design is so perfect that I would feel equally comfortable as a moderate Liberal as I would in the Labor Right.
has barbara bennett done the right thing and resigned, or is she waiting for a bludgeon to the shoulder?
Labor are going to abolish the workplace authority, so her job won’t exist.
I believe if I were to have a flaw, it would be my modesty and humility.
good point, showson.
Dear lord, I can’t believe Nelson is a monarchist.
I presume both the Labor Caucus and the Liberal parliamentary party made a decision on which candidates for doubtful seats would be invited to their respective meetings and allowed to vote. They would have done this in the knowledge that some of them might not in fact get elected. This must be provided for in the rules of both parties. This presumably means that the validity of the votes taken cannot be challenged retrospectively on these grounds.
And that you’re a bit of a perfectionist Brendan (and would never do a 730 report interview while drunk).
You mean ANOTHER 730 report interview while drunk.
Now the split in the Queensland Liberals is flowing onto Gridlock Campbell.
Will Brisbane’s “Can Do” Lord Mayor, Campbell Newman, be disadvantaged by the Queensland Liberals’ bitter infighting in his continuing hunt for Liberal candidates for next year’s council elections?
Battling Liberals State Leader Bruce Flegg conceded the week’s events had been embarrassing for the Queensland Liberals, “at every level” of the party.
Cr Newman – who is elected separately from the individual councillors – is trying to build a Liberal Party team to break the Labor majority stranglehold in Brisbane City Council.
While he holds the office of Lord Mayor, Cr Newman heads a minority council, with nine councillors to Labor’s 17.
In newspaper advertisements this morning, the Liberal Party of Queensland is advertising for candidates in the wards of Jamboree, Wynnum and Deagon.
All three wards are held by the Labor Party – by Felicity Farmer (Jamboree), Peter Cumming (Wynnum) and Victoria Newton (Deagon). If Cr Newman is to secure a majority in council, it’s vital that he wins these wards.
Dr Flegg conceded the week’s events were disappointing for Cr Newman.
“What’s happened this week isn’t good enough,” Dr Flegg said.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/lib-infighting-no-joy-for-newman/2007/11/30/1196037138701.html
Did any fans of The Office catch Brendan’s ‘my favourite actor…is Mr. Sidney Poitier’ moment in his interview last night?
“I have a portrait of Neville Bonner in my office”
Shouldnt you have one of Julia Gillard Pancho?
haha. I’d be happy with either ESJ. But I don’t like my chances of dislodging the Bonner one from Brendan ’symbolism is extraordinarily important’ Nelson.
I think Brendan Nelson probably has a portrait of himself in his office.
Skysie I reckon most of parliament has portraits of themselves in the office or home.
The difference is ESJ, the only thing on Brendan’s office wall is his own portrait. I can’t imagine Brendan having any other political hero except himself.
I thought that was HILARIOUS.
He should’ve just announced that he is Leader of the Opposition, and Shadow Minister for HUGE portraits of Neville Bonner.
Well – shortly I’m off to get the ferry to the Woy Woy pub to celebrate the visionary Belinda’s devastating victory in Robertson. In fact her first victory at anything, and sadly her last. She’ll no doubt be at the pub talking political philosophy with a group of labourers from the chicken farm over a schooner. I would like to congratulate her on her ministry too – can anyone remember which one Kevin was saving for her – the Ministry of rocket science, or the Ministry of public speaking? Which one was it again?
I know about Aborigines and I have done my bit for them, because you know, I Brendan Nelson have a portrait of Neville Bonner in my office twice the size of a standard door.
If that doesn’t show that I am fair dinkum true blue ocker in understanding Aboriginal issues then nothing ever will.
Let me just say this, what have Aborigenes ever done for us?
420
ShowsOn – i find it amusing you are attacking him for taking an interest and admiration of pioneers of Australian politics, if this is the best you’ve got on Nelson, why don’t you trot out some propaganda from ‘Nelson Facts’.
What exactly *are* provisional votes? I know the differences between absentee, pre-poll and postals, but not provisionals.
The funny thing about Brendans portrait is that it changes when his hairstyle changes. I think it might be a mirror. Did you notice he had it slicked down last night, some people in the partyroom made their support conditional on a hairdo makeover.
Any word on Carangamite or Solomon.
I’m sorry – I shouldn’t be sarcastic like that. It is good that the dead wood of Jim Lloyd had been left to rot. That’s the best one can say for Belinda – at least she’s probably marginally better than the other guy.
I assume Julie Bishop chose to be shadow IR minister – but why. This has to be the most politically stupid move on her behalf.
She probably sees herself taking on Julia Gillard but she is a dill if she thinks she can win.
Labor IR policy is in place, it just needs the legislation to be drafted. In 6-8 months the IR battle will be over.
So what does Bishop do – ditch IR and become education minister again?
What a perfect mess she has created for herself.
What are the chances that a different Lib will phone in sick every day until Christmas?
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/libs-reschedule-leadership-meeting/20071130-1dtx.html
Glen I remember looking after families who were losing their homes. I remember university graduates who were begging for voluntary work and couldn’t get it. I remember parents who went, employers to get their kids’ apprenticeships.
Glen I will always remember you, comrade.
jaundiced, Belinda was a member of the Shadow Ministry in her last brief stint… who knows… you could be looking at having another Minister as a local member some day.
Jaundiced, the ABC website has it in the too close too call category again.
Brendan
Did you get you university education thanks to Gough Whitlam?
Ruawake. It won’t matter. Horatio and the Bish will both be hosed out in 12 months as a job lot. Who will be Malcolm’s deputy??? They’d make it fun if they gave it to the Mad Monk – just to appease the Right.
I find it hilarious that you can’t see that he is rejecting one form of symbolism by replacing it with another form of symbolism.
Why don’t you figure out how to think for yourself?
430 LTEP – That fits, she’s certainly been a shadowy figure around here! But don’t get me wrong, I really would rather have her than him, and maybe she’s shine. I’ll be the first to say I underestimated her if so.
sorry “she’ll”, not “she’s”
Only 296 votes in Robertson
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-146.htm
LOL Jaundiced.
Whoa – what’s that ESJ – Is Robertson back in the basket? All that bile and she doesn’t even deserve it yet.
423 Comrade Glen, never forget that many Labor people of good will voted to get Neville Bonner elected – no wonder Nelson is a fan.
No, he got it thanks to Matthew Flinders. http://www.flinders.edu.au
jaundiced… I’d still say she has a very good chance given provisionals haven’t been counted yet. They favoured Labor in the last election and I’d find it hard to imagine they’d vary hugely from that.
They also have a signficant lot of absentee votes to count which, at the moment are favouring Neal.
I believe provisional votes are people who claim to be able to vote, but for whatever reason are not on the hard-copy lists that the AEC offices have.
Hence they are allowed to vote, but the vote is stored “provisionally” in an envelope until their status can be determined.
This could be things like Married names, incorrect spellings etc.
It also looks like 1 polling place hasn’t returned its votes yet… why would that be?
charlie, it’s when a name isn’t on the list or it’s already marked off when someone turns up to vote.
442 LTEP – I’ll tell the faithful that at the pub – got to go or I’ll miss the ferry.
Provisional votes are made if your name does not appear on the voters roll or if your name has already been marked as having already voted and you claim that you havn’t. The vote is placed inside an enveloped and you make a declaration as to your right to vote, the vote is counted if the electoral office accepts the validity of the declaration.
432 ruawake
My Uni education might have been free but it was only teaching Marxist-leninist-trotskist-socialist-communist propaganda.
As a consequence my medical degree is not worth the paper it is written on. Look at my most prominent medical malpractice – plastic surgery and lobotomy on Julie Bishop…
#448
You botched her eyes.
Brendan if you did as you say you did why did you make Julie look like your third wife?
I think i know…”But honey, it was dark i thought it was you” LOL
“intelligent design” folks believes life on earth was created around 10,000 years ago! Yes, you read me right: ten thousands years.
I miss Morgan Fridays
Their site did not crash today. 
Question (excuse me if it is bleedingly obvious): how does a booth official know you have not voted elsewhere in the same seat when you come to have your name crossed off?
Given that we do not have electronic voting lists that could keep track of voting, I could have easily gone and dropped 10 votes for the ALP with no one knowing… It is a bit pointless in my safe Labor seat, but Swan comes to mind…
Frank @ 451. Actually many Creationists believe the universe is only 6,000 years old
Dennis Hood, a Family First member of the South Australian Loser’s Lounge says that Earth was created 6,000 years ago.
448. yeah they’re a bit close together. nice colour though.
They don’t. That’s why they ask, if you say NO, but in fact have voted elsewhere, then you have just committed electoral fraud.
Is it true that Nelson’s wife is “born again” ? Or is this just gossip?
So…as the old saying goes….commit electoral fraud early and commit electoral fraud often!
Yes Ruawake, I believe Nelson’s current wife is a conservative evangelical Christian
I thought Nelson was a mick?
Brendan Nelson I have a question:
What made you finally decide on buying the $6 Billion Dollars on the worlds worst fighter jet the Super Hornetts, was it the flashy name or was it because they gave you a jet fighter model which I saw sitting on your desk??
Thanks
Could someone explain to an ignorant Mexican exactly what Belinda Neal has done to deserve all this slagging from Liberal stooges here and elsewhere? OK, she’s a former union official, she’s married to a NSW ALP heavy, and she failed to win Robertson in 1998. Are these crimes or what? She’s (probably) knocked off a ten-year sitting member and minister, in a seat whose demographics are moving away from Labor, so she can’t be a total turkey. Supporters of a party that thought endorsing Michael Towke for a safe seat was a good idea are hardly in a position to be critical.
Maybe Nelson has jumped the ecclesiastical fence?? We all know how committed he is to his beliefs!
regarding all this ’sorry’ business, am i incorrect in my belief that a ‘government’ is a continuing entity regardless of the comings and goings of the party’s in power… much like a corporation is the same entity regardless of chairperson, board, CEO’s etc.
I thought this was true, and that it was a continual representation of Australian society.
As such the Australian Government is able to say sorry for past errors, much in the same way a corporation can be held accountable for past actions.
Is the Libs argument that because it wasn’t “illegal” (according to the laws of the land, but ignoring basic human rights) and done with goood intentions, there is no responsibility to be taken?
But does anyone have a comment on the “continuity’ of governments?
LV, if they are such a terrible aircraft why do US aircraft carriers use them?
And the fine/penalty would be?
“Ferny Grover aka Neilbris Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 5:25 pm
Yes Ruawake, I believe Nelson’s current wife is a conservative evangelical Christian”
Please, don’t visit the sins…
But Bryce….visiting sins is what we all do for fun!
Psst… Glen… come closer… i dont want everyone to hear this… we dont own any aircraft carriers.
Adam – If you are there
Assertions have been made from time to time on this site that x number of votes remain to be counted. Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t the number unknown All you can do is base the number roughly on what happened last time and have a guess. e.g. if last time a seat had 100,000 electors and 5,000 didn’t vote, i.e. 5% you could expect roughly the same number not to vote this time (% wise) and by deducting the number of votes already counted (including informal) from the expected votes to be cast you can arrive at roughly the number of votes that remain to be counted.
Re: middle man on the continuity of governments: my belief is that ’sorry’ should be said on behalf of the state. It was the state who committed horrific crimes of genocide (no less) towards Indigenous people, and it is the state that should say sorry.
I know some may shirk at the use of term ‘genocide’,but it is pretty straightforward to me. Indigenous kids were taken away from their families in a belief that they should be ‘bred out’. That, by all international definitions, is as much a genocide as is deliberately targeting an ethnic group in the way Nazis targeted Jews.
Not to mention that non-Indigenous Australians continue to benefit from these crimes decades later….
The eyes are my greatest achievement. They glow in the dark and they can pierce curtains!
No confusion here he he…her eyes glow in the dark…he he
Like the name suggests I was Super Horn…at the time..busy with Glow in the Dark…
NJB, that’s correct. No-one knows how many votes have been cast until they are all counted. All you can do is look at the enrolment and the turnout % from last time and make an educated guess.
Brendan on saying sorry -
“Our generation will look back with a sense of shame in some of those outcomes, but we don’t own them,” he said.
So post-colonial Australia doesn’t own the ‘outcomes’ of disposession.
It owns the land bit,
just not the disposession bit.
Nice.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/sorry-issue-splits-libs/2007/11/30/1196037125789.html
For example, the AEC website tells us that 92.45% of the votes have been counted in Dickson. That means 92.45% of the enrolled voters, not 92.45% of the votes that were actually cast. In 2004 the turnout in Dickson was 95.1%, so we can calculate that actually about 97% of the vote has been counted there.
Thanks Adam. Hope this helps others out there. If I get time I’ll prepare a table showing an estimate of the remaining votes in the doubtfuls.