What I don’t know about the Liberal Party could fill a warehouse, but most of the prescriptions outlined by Michael Kroger on Sky News on Tuesday accord with my prejudices:
The organisational wings around the country need to be reformed immediately, particularly in relation to the branch structure and preselections. There’s a lot of things that can be done, very quickly. The party is in a terrible electoral position, but it can very quickly put itself into a fantastic position. This is not a five or ten year repair job. You could actually fix all the organisational and structural problems in the Liberal Party within 12 months if you had the will to do it, and make whoever the incoming leader is in a fantastic position to fight the next federal election in three years’ time. But what tends to happens is people retreat to their corners, they want to protect their own power bases and nothing happens. It requires some strong decision-making from the senior people to fix this thing, they can fix it in 12 months … The branch structure is 60 years old and even though the branch members still do a fantastic job, it’s the structure, not the branch members, it’s the structure which is drowning us. We’ve got probably 500 people in the Victorian Liberal Party whose job is as honorary auditor … There need to be branch amalgamations, we need to base the party around state or federal electorates, you need to broaden the base of people voting in preselections, you need to have perhaps a senior committee of senior party people who have the final say over preselections to rubber stamp the selections, you’ve got to stop the petty branch stacking, we should amalgamate with the National Party, we should give the federal party some more power a little like the ALP does, we should make it a federalist party and not just individual states, we need to totally revamp the fundraising within the organisation and we need to give the federal executive some power … you just can’t have situations where five or 10 or 20 people can stack a few branches and take over a safe Liberal Party seat and preselect a C-grade candidate and be happy with that. I pay credit to the Labor Party for some of the candidates they preselected, I don’t like their politics, but the fact is in various places they strong-armed some tired old members out, put some new people in who may or may not succeed but on the face of it some of them have got very good credentials for parliament. That’s the way you have to operate in politics. To leave these things to the branch-stackers is a recipe for disaster.
Malcolm Turnbull – wealthy, assertive, independently powerful – struck me as being just the man for the job outlined by Kroger. Perhaps the party room knows better. Or perhaps, to use Kroger’s formulation, they have signalled an intention to retreat to their corners and protect their own power bases, and nothing will happen.
Recommended reading: Alister Drysdale of the Business Spectator reports that both parties’ internal polling showed a late Coalition recovery that was stopped dead in its tracks by the Lindsay pamphlet disgrace. It’s also argued that the fake Jeff Kennett letter regarding proposed funding cuts to the states had the same impact during the last week of the 1996 campaign. I personally do not imagine that either incident was single-handedly decisive, but this is not the first report to emerge of a sharp shift in party tracking polling following Jackie Kelly’s infamous “Chaser-style prank” interview of last Wednesday. There’s also a very intriguing article on the Liberal Party’s late-term leadership ructions from Pamela Williams in today’s Financial Review (subscriber only unfortunately).
1,042 Comments
No, William, the party doesn’t know better than you do. The Liberal party is filled with a bunch of #(*$(#*$(*#$() [won't put in the words that will send this comment into moderation, therefore the reader can substitute words of their own choice].
Exhibit A – ” Mr Minchin and those who switched could not abide Mr Turnbull’s declaration early this week that John Howard should have said sorry to indigenous Australia.”
Exhibit B – “Another factor that played against Mr Turnbull, according to some sources, was the fact that although he was considered clever, articulate and confident, he was identified as a rich Sydneysider — “a bit too glitzy and slick, nd a small ‘l’ liberal”. Dr Nelson, on the other hand, was a “small ‘c’ conservative”, whose roots were humble and far from Sydney.”
Exhibit C – “Questions about his character arose when he later told interviewers and a Liberal pre-selection panel that he, in fact, voted Liberal during the years he belonged to the Labor Party. Now, at his crowning moment of redemption, the waters around him are poisoned once again. So much for party renewal.”
Exhibit D – “Mr Turnbull had presented himself in media interviews as new, energetic and open-minded, prepared to say “sorry” to indigenous Australians and to offer a socially inclusive face to the electorate.
According to a number of Liberal MPs who spoke to The Age yesterday, Mr Turnbull’s very public willingness to spruik his strengths was his greatest weakness when it came to the vote.
“He was seen to believe vociferously in things like the republic and he made this unilateral comment about saying sorry — things that a lot of us had opposed over the years,” one Liberal said. “And he made these sort of policy statements through the media. We felt that if this was the way he would operate, we weren’t ready for him.” Others said that some backbenchers, wearied of toeing the Howard line for years, felt they could not abide another powerful and prescriptive personality.”
Exhibit E – The willingness of those who did vote for Nelson to hang onto a proven failed policy, Work Choices.
{all quotes from the following article – http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/backroom-deal-takes-nelson-to-the-top/2007/11/29/1196037074766.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1 }
“Your Honor, after submitting 5 exhibits to prove prosecution’s point that the defendents are a complete and utter waste of space, I rest my case”
“The factions were left to squabble over the minor positions. Harry Jenkins will become speaker of the House of Representatives and John Hogg the Senate president.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/total-changing-of-guard/2007/11/29/1196037075009.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
It seems some people have very short memories. It wasn’t that long ago, after Latham was defeated, that people were saying the same about Labor. Despite the wishful thinking of many the Libs aren’t going to go disappear quietly into the night. They’ll eventually reform but it may possibly take one more election loss to force them to swallow some harsh medicine. It’s not a case of if they’ll reform but rather when and how. Regardless of anything the Libs do, Labor will probably have at least two terms in government. That’s more than enough time to reform and reshape the party.
Problem with Latham et. al (Beazely, Crean) was a leadership issue. Those in the party never felt 100% comfortable with any of them. Thus they couldn’t be effectively sold to the electorate. Had they had an effective leader at any of the 4 elections Howard won, he wouldn’t have been in power for so long..
McArthur still in the race for Corangamite
Jeff Whalley
Geelong Advertiser
30Nov07
Stewart McArthur could still hold the seat of Corangamite as votes continue to be counted.
STEWART McArthur could still hold the seat of Corangamite after a remarkable 11th hour turnaround in the vote count.
Postal, absentee and pre-poll votes continue to be counted and yesterday swung heavily in favour of the MP of 23 years.
Mr McArthur was 2600 votes behind Labor’s Corangamite candidate Darren Cheeseman on election night but, as of last night, the Liberal stalwart was only trailing by 764 votes with 10,500 still to count.
The seat is on a knife edge with Mr Cheeseman at 50.47 per cent and Mr McArthur at 49.53 per cent.
The phenomenal comeback has turned the victory cakewalk of Mr Cheeseman into a tension-racked final countdown with a result expected by tonight.
Last Saturday night, Mr Cheeseman claimed victory as the first Labor MP to take the seat since 1931 _ a move that now appears hasty with the Australian Electoral Commission saying the seat is too close to call.
Mr McArthur conceded defeat on Sunday saying politics was a tough business.
“It is quite a harrowing experience to lose the honour of representing the people of Corangamite,” he said.
But, while Mr McArthur could now have the last laugh, he was not talking up his chances yesterday.
“They tell me that it’s close but I’ve packed my stuff. I’ve said I have conceded,” Mr McArthur said.
The veteran Liberal took time from cleaning out his former deputy whip office in Canberra to talk to the Geelong Advertiser yesterday.
“It’s a bit of fun for people and the trend is going our way it would be a big story if it turned around but it hasn’t happened yet.”
“As of now the party is electing a new leader without me.”
Mr Cheeseman, who was also in Canberra yesterday, went to ground, not returning the Advertiser’s calls.
Labor Geelong state MP Ian Trezise, who won his first campaign after a drawn-out two-week count by 16 votes, last night said he empathised with both candidates.
“It’s not even a day-to-day rollercoaster, it’s a minute-by-minute rollercoaster. You’re up one minute and down the next,” Mr Trezise said.
He said it was difficult as the situation was so fluid, with no exact figure of how many votes were to be counted.
“If my memory is correct (when I ran) they found a box of postal votes from the Swiss Alps with a couple of hundred ALP votes,” he said.
Mr McArthur is one of the great survivors of Geelong politics pushing tariff reductions during the 1980s despite objections from the local auto industry and advocating dairy deregulation despite opposition from his Colac heartland.
I think it was in Peter Fitzsimmons’s biography of Kim Beazley that Keating stated that he believed that, had it not been for the “forged letters” affair and the controversy over Rupert Murdoch’s “SuperLeague” or whatever it was that dominated the news during the final weeks of the 1996 campaign, he could have won that election
As much as I admire and respect Keating, I think his capacity for deluding himself is quite evident through this statement. The size and magnitude of Howard’s victory in 1996 was such that I think that a Liberal victory was a foregone conclusion
This election was much closer and it’s possible that the party lost traction because of the whole Lindsay saga and I believe it will be much easier for Liberal strategists to put forward this case. I actually am inclined to believe that the whole affair cost Howard some support among ethnic communities in his seat of Bennelong which he may have needed in order to prevail. And it certainly cost Karen Chijoff any chance of winning her seat. But I think Lindsay was probably leaning Labor in any event in the absence of Kelly’s personal vote
Having said that, I thnk the Liberals would probably have narrowly lost the election anyway. I think the surge to Labor in Queensland, the party’s gain of seats in South Australia and in regional New South Wales and the recovery of seats in Tasmania would probably have happened regardless of the whole Lindsay saga. There is a case to argue that Howard’s agenda would have gained more attention during the final days of the campaign had it not been for the Lindsay affair because it wouldn’t have overshadowed his National Press Club Address but I still think that Labor would have had the edge regardless
McEwen has moved back into the ‘close’ list… looks like those 3000 votes may have been real after all.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-226.htm
Now a less than 400 vote gap, with only provisionals really to be counted. I don’t think Labor will quite get it… but it’s nice to see seats moving closer to Labor rather than out of reach.
Kroger is right of course and yes if the liberal party is to restore relevancy then they will need to adopt many of the recommendations suggested by Kroger. The Liberal Party is a 50’s come 70’s structure. The fact that it is a state based party outside government is one issue BUT if it is to succeed in the future it will have to learn the lessons Labor learnt and that is it needs constant generational change.
If your not a Minister and you have been in for three terms then you really need to justify your position and relevance to any party organisation. (Some will argue this test needs to apply on an ongoing basis).
Labor has rightly embraced a policy of continual renewal.
Had John handed over the leadership and introduced new blood the slaughter would not have had to be so drastic. People want stable yet dynamic governments. Change in members is the only way to bring about renewal and fresh ideas.
Problem is that those who remain on the opposition benches lack vitality and enthusiasm. It will take one more term just to weed out the existing dead wood in the house and then the fresh faces will soon become entrenched and they will want to protect their patch also.
The AEC results data is showing little movement.
I have switched to Andrew Landeryou’s Election Map as it now pans through the tally board showing seats that have changed hands and those within 1% margin. Whilst the ABC map has some good detail its navigation is not the best.
A party that has faith and lends support to its senior leadership can manage and ensure generational change so that if and when they lose power they have the experience and freshness to revive quickly.
All parties to need to review the term-of-office issue and support should be given to fixed four year terms. Then parties can manage and plan their campaign strategies better.
What I find interesting in viewing the results is the wide variance in the swings as high as 9% and in NP seats the swing was the highest. With such a variance in the percentage of the swings you have to think more then twice about the National average and the practice of comparing the movement from one election to the next. It just does not apply. Western Australia clearly dd not follow the national trend.
I think Kroger’s prescription is bizarre. It is based on the Liberals’ problem being an organisational one and it is clearly not, it is a political one. There is just no need for the Liberals political program, as most clearly shown by the fact that they were toying with Turnbull. Is Kroger saying that people did not vote for them because they didn’t like the party structure?
They can fiddle with the structure all they like what they can’t solve is the fact that the platform on which the party was founded (anti-union, anti-socialist, ant-left) is redundant.
I wonder if Labor will be in a position to act and implement governmental reform now that it holds power in every state and Federal jurisdictions.
Will it adopt meaningful change (Education to the states and health to the Feds. for example. Somehow I think not (Sadly) as too many self interest get in the way of reform that is obviously in the best long term interests. But like pollys Unions and business organisations have built their empires around this patch and they more often then not do not want to see change. Then there is the big sightly irreverent to day to day living but never the less important (The republic and a new flag for example). Will Rudd take on some of these inspirational and necessary changes… Or will the flounder in the sea of no change.
Interesting point from the ABC website
Rebuilding Liberals’ shattered remnants
The (Liberal) party is designed for government, not opposition. The primacy of the parliamentary party has always meant that policy is made by the frontbench. When in government, the issues of implementation have always been left to the public service. Without the perks of office and the support of the bureaucracy, the Liberals are very thinly resourced.
The party has none of the extra-parliamentary machinery that the ALP has, such as national conference and executive and also the ACTU, which provide not only policy support but also organisational continuity, especially in opposition.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/29/2104805.htm
William, an excellent lead in.
“You could actually fix all the organisational and structural problems in the Liberal Party within 12 months if you had the will to do it”
That is the crux: “if the will to do it”. It seems clear that most don’t.
At present the Liberal Party is a contradiction. It calls itself Liberal, but people like me who regard their principles as “small-l liberal” wouldn’t dream of voting for it. They really are a Conservative Party in practice. On some religious issues they are almost reactionary. But Liberalism is NOT always conservative as a doctrine. Nor has it been in practice. In the 1960s the Liberals embraced the referendum for granting the vote to Aboriginals. Would Menzies or Holt even get pre-selectd in the Liberal Party today?
That leaves them with two options:
- change their name to Conservative Party and stick with that demographic/ voting block (they will find it is not enough to get them elected to government and gertting smaller with time as cohort age)
- recover their Liberal principles and aim to recapture the middle ground. This will need more than a few words from Brendan Nelson. It will require policy change, taking disciplinary action against people who pander to extreme right wingers, and pre-selecting a lot of new candidates.
If they are serious, trogalodytes like Bill Heffernan should go. One of the worst aspects of Howard’s government was that people like him could smear someone like Justice Kirby, with false information as it turned out, and not even get disciplined by Howard (let alone charged with any offense). Then there was children overboard (nobody charged), Seiv X (no inquiry), Hicks (evidence now that Ruddock interferred), and perhaps worst of all Haneef (a clearly innocent man ruined by Andrews; still no Visa). As long as that sort of behaviour continues, and is not even aologised for (let alone acted against) then any claims of recovering liberal values into the Liberal Party are unbelievable.
Get the feeling they are running with Nelson now, expecting to have to ’sacrifice’ him sometime within the next year or two. Leaving the way open then for their preferred leader, Turnbull, to contest 2011.
Doing that will represent a cleanish break from the Howardistas and the divisive policies of the Howard era, putting forward the fresh new face necessary to take on a new Labor government.
They would probably like to put Turnbull forward right now as the new face and the break from the past, but are anticipating leadership stumbles as the shattered party finds its feet, so Nelson goes in right away as the fall guy.
Turnbull smore than a break with the past he is a break with the Liberal party.
Piping Shrike I agree; you said what I meant with far fewer words. It is not just organisational. The attitudes that poison the liberal party are carried within the minds of the people in it. Some of them need to lose their job before it will reform.
I believe Kroger would argue, if he was completely honest, that if they can fix their organisational problems the party will get back in touch with the electorate and then be able to fix the politics accordingly. However as long as they remain out of touch with the electorate partly due to their organizational problems, the political problems will remain.
Your right about the politics, it’s redundant, more than redundant, the crap Nelson is carrying on with makes the Liberals unelectable, however Kroger prescription is not bizarre. The role of an opposition is to provide an alternate government, the organization needs to be structured to put forward people that can form a government. The current structure is a wank.
The Liberal Party has just had the best opportunity for years to get in touch with what the electorate wants and does not want.
…you just can’t have situations where five or 10 or 20 people can stack a few branches and take over a safe Liberal Party seat and preselect a C-grade candidate and be happy with that…
Is this an allusion to Alex Hawke?
In fairness, as unpalatable as the likes of Hawke must be to many parts of the electorate, it’s doubtful that such matters made much difference to the overall election result.
Paul K I tend to see it the other way round. When a party fulfils a need for a segment in society, they organise its structure accordingly (unions, factions for the ALP and the disparate state-based organisation of the Liberals appropriate for business and small business constituency). The problem m for the Liberals is that they don’t fulfil a need, not even for business, as seen by Workchoices which business had little interest in.
As a result they have no basis on which to reorganise themselves – other than to act like some big focus group (and Rudd seems to be sending his lot out to schools etc. to do that).
charles, I couldn’t even work out what Nelson was about. Did you hear him answer O’Brien’s question on why he switched from Labor to Liberal? It seemed to be about his mortgage payments.
HR, I think there is a lot of internal agenda in what Kroger is saying.
While you are here Shrike check the end of the second paragraph of your blog today. I think you meant to put supported instead of supposed.
First time (and last time) poster, long time lurker.
I am a rank and file Liberal that follows this site sometimes for the excellent polling information (many thanks William), but I find the comment threads very heavy-going to wade through, and unnecessarily turgid.
Here’s my take.
1. Turnbull’s “symbolic” agenda does not win Liberal votes, and is completely unrepresentative of the Liberal Party, let alone swinging voters in modern Australia. It is an agenda that has passionate advocates, but (a) they don’t decide elections, and (b) why push them in a Liberal partyroom vote when they are demonstrably unpopular with that electorate? Even if the justification was “to grab the Party by the scruff of the neck” and challenge its attitudes, is a partyroom ballot the right time to do it, when you’re trying to get them to vote for you?
2. Is a “symbolic” agenda coming from an investment banker in Point Piper really going to turn around blue-collar, largely “patriotic” voters in Queensland and western Sydney? The party room, in my view, rightly said no. After all, that’s the task of the Coalition in order to rebuild its position.
3. The media narrative of “splits” and “knives” on Nelson’s majority in the vote is wrong – the Liberal Party is only just STARTING to adjust to the end of the Howard era and the end of old certainties, factional certainties among them. This partyroom vote looks like it cut across old factional certainties and was based on individuals as opposed to past loyalties. The party room looks like it is finding its way and is very fluid. There is nothing like a Howard-Peacock ossified divide in either the party room or the parliamentary organisation these days. Asserting that there is one there is relying on an ancient dichotomy by lazy journalists.
This is all less about Nelson’s positives than why Turnbull was the wrong choice, and that may mean that down the track if Nelson does slip it will be harder to defend his leadership if it comes under internal attack, but it is a summary of how things seem now.
And with that I depart! Again, thanks William for the site.
Not all 3000 Scullin votes counted in McEwen
could get a lot tighter
Thanks for that Persse, actually it was supposed to be “supposed to be”. Sub editors let me down.
Annabel Crabbe has another brilliant peice in the SMH today, referrign to Nelson’s election as “the resurrection of Dr Strangelove”. I particularly liked one of her lines on how things stand for Neson given Abbott and Turnbull’s reaction: “Just because you are paranoid, doesn’t mean everyone isn’t out to get you”.
Kroger is babbling, it can all be summed down to this.
They are an unpleasant party. A mean spirited party. Most people do not like that. Simple as that.
If you restructure a bunch of bloodhounds, it’s still a bunch of bloodhounds.
Malcolm was the best of a bad lot, but well he got rolled.
They needed to reinvent themselves, but instead its much the same muchness.
In any case, at the end of the day all of them were willing participants to the darkness that was the Howard years, so all of them are good for nothing.
Hope they walk in the wilderness for a long time, they have earned it throughly.
I agree about some posts being unnecessarily turgid.
So, I have just for words for Howard and the party he reshaped in his own image into a bunch of ideological thugs
Broad church my arse.
*four* words.
Malcolm needs to show his parliamentary colleagues that he can be a team player – looks to me like he’s been sending all the wrong signals. The time for making policy on the run is AFTER he’s been elected leader, not before. It will be interesting to see how Nelson handles things, I’m prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt, although I reckon the party shenanigans will make his life incredibly difficult.
A fish rots from the head, as we’ve just had so perfectly demonstrated over the last decade, and it looks like they are back to do it all again. One wit in the letters of today’s SMH:
Can the man who wanted to bring “intelligent design” into the classroom really bring intelligent leadership to the Liberal Party? It’s a big ask.
someone here said the other day that the next liberal party PM was probably up on the gold coast at schoolies’ week. i think that’s probably correct. ain’t even in the parliament yet.
they have a long way to go, and it sure as f$%k isn’t kroger’s way of structural change. look at what they’ve given themselves yesterday: a believer in intelligent design.
nelson and bishop certainly make an unattractive couple. noooooo charisma! and nelson already saying, no apology to indigenous australians and strong suggestion of blocking (while they can) abolition of serfchoices. they’re t^ts on a bull.
Have the mystery 3000 Scullin votes actually materialised in McEwan?
The gain to Mitchell (ALP) in last night’s figures seems to have come entirely from the absentees which are running 61% in Labor’s favor.
The original story was that the 3000 were cast within the “working-class urban end of the electorate”, which suggests that they weren’t absentee votes at all, just mishandled. (Possibly cast at a shared booth?)
Rob @33 – On my reading, the ALP gain in MCEwan has come from ordinary votes. The gain on absentees is only a gain of 400 votes.
Something that has been overlooked is Brendan Nelson as Minister for Defence ordered the Super Hornets against the advice of many defence staff. I expect a lot of issues about these aircraft will be raised over the next three years; cost, uselessness, lack of support etc. Add the shortage of equipment and its poor quality for the soldiers sent to Iraq and Nelson is not going to be happy. Remember the issues raised by the Howard government over the submarines Kim Beasley signed for.
Neil@35, you’re on the money i think. It’s an obvious point of attack. We could almost rename Greg Combet ‘Parliamentary Secretary for the Opposition Leader’.
Now everyone here this:
Australia is not a different country to what it was 36 months ago.
The Coalition lost because they had been in government for 11 years, were seen as old and stale compared to the opposition, had lost the trust of the people on interest rates, and imposed an unpopular policy agenda on the people.
They didn’t lose because the country woke up from a slumber, or they grew, or they shifted their world view, or because they wanted something fundamentally different from government. Keating tried to change the country and failed; Howard didn’t try.
The Coalition will still appeal to a broad number of voters because of what they represent.
A lot of what passes for “analysis” here is actually barracking. Try to articulate reasons for the eventual demise of the Coalition that are based in reality, rather than listing what you would like to see happen.
Actually John Faulkner will be the forensic analysist of the Howard years. the Tories are in deep deep deep manure for years.
Howard C, the Coalition lost because of Workchoices. If they hadn’t tried to implement that nasty farce of a policy they would have won. Unfortunately for the Liberals Workchoices also went some way to waking a lot of people up to what a nasty, divisive, cynical pack of sh*ts the Liberals actually are.
Howard C, you act on the same presumptions in a way. You could just as easily say that Keating lost because they’d been in government for 14 years, were seen as old and stale compared to the opposition, had lost the trust of people on interest rates etc. rather than because Keating tried to change the country.
On the contrary I think Howard did try and change the country, this can be seen by his ‘culture wars’, for instance trying to prescribe which version of Australian history will be the recognised one. Furthermore, he initiated a ‘citizenship test’ which was meant to prescribe ‘Australian values’. To me, I feel Howard most definately tried to change the country.
You say that the Coalition appeal to a broad number of voters because of what they represent… what do they represent? Why are they not in government anywhere around the country? Could you not say Labor appeal to a broad number of voters because of what they represent?
How much knowledge do you think the average Australian has of what each political party ‘represents’?
35 Overlooked? Nelson has been dubbed ‘Horatio Super Hornet’ on the previous thread. His running mate has been dubbed ‘Krystal Carrington’ for obvious reasons.
http://www.scorpiofiles.com/dynasty/linda/krystal.html
To the Libs claiming that they need to hold the conservative line (though I think it is a stretch to call some of what they are holding ‘conservative’), from opposition the ALP was able to set the agenda against the denial and negativity on social policy, the environment and IR that the Liberals in government could not sell.
As the ALPs messages become the mainstream narrative, not realising and adapting will put the Liberals further towards the margins.
Also, anyone else notice Nelson on the 730 report unable to differentiate between ‘liberalism’ and the Liberal Party? Who is he trying to win over with that gaff? Or is he just trying to convince himself that he isn’t a complete turncoat?
And how far advanced do you think Turnbull’s dvd montage, starting with ‘I HAVE NEVER VOTED FOR THE LIBERAL PARTY IN MY LIFE!’ is?
Nico @34 – I didn’t take a snapshot of the McEwan totals before last night’s update, so I only have William Bowe’s McEwan figures (not yet updated) on the McEwan page to go by.
Nonetheless, Bowe lists a 2PP @ 41,241/42,103 (83,344 total) without absentees; the AEC now has the 2PP @ 42,509/42,905 (85,414 total) with absentees. 85,414 – 83,344 = 2070, which also happens to be the exact number of absentees added last night.
Pancho @ 43
Youtube to the rescue: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r93YidU0i4M
The MSM is finding the adjustment from Howard Cheerleaders to Rudd objective and fearless analysts is not easy. Check the Yank or Aussie spelling issue which this Yahoo7 headline and intro paragraph reveals:
Defence MP questions
jet fighter purchase
New Defense Minister Joel Fitzgibbon will raise questions about the $7 billion purchase of F/A-18 Super Hornet jet fighters.
Could it be that this dysfunction is caused by 11 years of buying whatever military junk the Yanks want to dump upon us as well as slavishing following in American foreign policies from Iraq to Kyoto?
Has anyone else noticed that in electing Nelson and Bishop to head the Liberal party, we have seen a continuation of the “me tooism” of the campaign, except in reverse.
PS @ #10
Sir, I found your remarks to be astute as to the evolution of the Liberal party. It has not evolved at all let alone allow itself to become ‘progressive’. Ihe party is heading for irrelevance in foreseeable future. The Libs need to know we live in a society not a economy.
The same way communism went so will ‘TREX’ Australian Liberalism go too!
More fun for the federal coalition. Apparently the QLD Nationals party is saying they should breakaway from the coalition unless Joyce is promoted to Senate Leader. So they want to put a maverick in a position of leadership, nice.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/30/2105821.htm?section=justin
Will, well Boswell has already said he won’t serve the full 6 years so I don’t understand why they wouldn’t give Joyce the leadership. Boswell really is a waste of space.
The question remains – what does the Liberal party stand for with the Admiral at the helm? It isn’t liberalism – see policies casting the poor adrift, no ’sorry”, Workchoices, which is the opposite of free liberal ‘choice’. It isn’t conservatism in all things – see Workchoices, which was radical change. Is it US-style ‘neo-conservatism’ they stand for now? Possibly – see religious influence – intelligent creator, full funding for new religious schools, Iraq intervention, lies, crush opposition by any means (Lindsay).
It is hard to pin down though – exactly what are the basic principles of the Liberal Party of Australia? What should their new policies be based on? Anyone?
The article in the Fin Review today is very telling – Janette Howard as the praetorian guard!!!
I cannot wait for Costello’s tell all autobiography!!!
Re 37,
“Try to articulate reasons for the eventual demise of the Coalition that are based in reality, rather than listing what you would like to see happen.”
- the eventual demise of the coalition?
they are GONE now.
- reasons based in reality?
election results 24 November 2007
- listing what I would like to see happen?
see #2, it already has happened
51 – How about neo-conservative-Liberalism?
John Howard just did not plan for the future. To give Turnbull his dues (Not only is he a “non-direct-election” republican) he did manage to hold back the swing in his electorate.
John luke Hawke held on to power for too long. His ego and failure to inject new blood and renewal is what has forced the liberals into the reserves. I think he was trying to break that record. Now he will go down in history as being, what the second PM to be voted out of office and parliament.
Yes, Labor ran a plausible and effective campaign, John only had his daily morning power walks to try and keep himself active. Not sure if Costello would have cut it but he would have pegged back the back-swing. John not the Liberal Party lost this election.
Whgilst policies are important but I do not think the average swinging voter considers Foreign Affairs or big economic issues as a deciding issue as long as things are “comfortable” John just out stayed his time. Hang in their without a vision for the future. He had no Tamper and most people remember his lies then the tag Honest (NO GST) John.
Those that argue “it was the policies” I think their vote is well and truely decided..
Melbcity @ 55:
Turnbull’s margin was artificially depressed due to the Peter King factor.
Removing that factor made his job much easier, and his ‘real’ margin much greater than otherwise reported.
May I use a “ME TOO” please. Jakie Kelly, we LOVE you ! LOL
Murdoch on editorial control in newspapers.
Rupert Murdoch has admitted to a parliamentary inquiry that he has “editorial control” over which party The Sun and News of the World back in a general election and what line the papers take on Europe.
Mr Murdoch’s comments were revealed in the minutes from evidence he gave behind closed doors on 17 September in New York, during the committee’s inquiry into media ownership.
But the News Corporation chairman said he took a different approach with The Times and The Sunday Times. While he often asked what those papers were doing, he never instructed them or interfered, he said.
The minute stated: “For The Sun and News of the World he explained that he is a ‘traditional proprietor’. He exercises editorial control on major issues – like which party to back in a general election or policy on Europe.”
http://news.independent.co.uk/media/article3191592.ece
Horatio does not believe in evolution. He is now a fundamentalist born again christian (having been converted by wife no. 3 who is of that ilk) and is a proponent of “intelligent design”,
I think the Liberal Party is in opposition everywhere because of different reasons.
In Victoria Steve Bracks was well liked and his government made no glaring public mistakes. The opposition had, until recently, been a shambles. Leaders were making (poor) policy decisions by themselves without consulting Shadow Cabinet.
In New South Wales and Queensland it is more to do with the poor performance of the oppositions. In NSW the Liberals are dominated by the hard right to their detriment, and in Queensland the Premier was an extremely popular straight talker.
I can’t really speak for the other states.
I have no idea why the Liberals lost power in New South Wales in the first place, Jeff Kennett in Victoria was a powerhouse in Government but very ordinary electorally, and in Queensland the Nationals were in charge. Nuff said.
Keating tried to change the country culturally from something it fundamentally was to something it fundamentally wasn’t, at a time when people just wanted competent administration from their government. People weren’t working, interest rates were still too high, and there was Keating, talking about the Republic. Helpful.
I think Howard tried to make Australians comfortable about being Australians instead of uncomfortable. While many people believe on some social issues Howard could and should have been more compassionate, I think those people (me included) should just accept that the people in the mortgage belt, who make up a large section of the community, just aren’t that interested in those issues, and these issues didn’t inform their decision last Saturday.
So is Labor still a chance of winning McEwen? Have all the supposed missing 3000 votes yet been counted?
I can’t say I’m too confident about most of the rest, especially Herbert, Bowman and Dickson.
Those people who are suggesting that the main factor in the Liberal’s defeat was Howard staying on too long, ignore the reality that the ex-government really had no policies to run on, just a fear campaign based on the illlusion of economic brilliance.
Events have not only superseded Howard, they have overtaken the Liberal party itself, which has no way of re-inventing itself, no individuals capable of dealing with the challenges of the 21st century and no policies which have the slightest relevance to anyone except right wing idealogues and tired culture war warriors.
The world has moved on and the Liberal Party is left floundering in its wake.
At least you will have Robertson eh Howard Hater?
Julie – just don’t cut and run from the country when the Liberals (eventually) gain government again.
Julie (53) Poster 37 is correct. These threads need more analysis and less barracking. Government in this country is won and lost in outer metropolitan and regional seats mainly in NSW and Queensland (compare seats to change hands in the 1996 and 2007 elections). The analysis of what went right and what went wrong for either side of politics is to be found in the reasons why voters in those seats switched sides. None of your posts including Post 2 on this thread, are particularly persuasive as to the reasons, but (for what it is worth) I am pleased for you that you are so delighted with the election outcome.
Kroger’s prescription is just another variation on the ’strong man’ theme. This is why they have failed to regenerate during Howard’s reign.
Liberals finally found a new word in their dictionary.
http://theorstrahyun.blogspot.com/2007/11/liberals-suddenly-very-interested-in.html
ESJ: I’d rather have Jason Young or George Colbran than Belinda Neale.
David Charles is of course correct.
Government whether Labor or Liberal is the problem not the solution.
Howard C, I agree that the election wasn’t won due necessarily to a rejection of Howard’s Australia but want to qualify it by saying that a significant portion of Australians have not felt more comfortable ‘being Australian’ through the Howard years, and another portion never felt uncomfortable during the Hawke/Keating years.
I’d say the portion that felt uncomfortable during the Hawke/Keating years are probably the Liberal Party base vote, during the Howard years the Greens and Labor Party base vote, and the ones that generally didn’t feel different either way are the swinging voters.
The real reason for a government change, I believe, is far more superficial than a lot of other people would imagine. To me, leadership plays a huge part in it. Howard was seen as stale just as Keating was arrogant. People were prepared to accept Howard in ‘96 and Rudd in ‘07, not because they were particularly inspired by either, but because they’d just had enough of the old leader.
I suppose at the end of the day, any government change is made up of a ‘cobble-up’ of issues. Perhaps WorkChoices played a small part, the leadership issues another part and the negative reaction to Howard’s Australia another part. I think if we looked at it, the most significant chunk of the vote was people rejecting Howard’s vision for Australia, but the most important chunk (the chunk that decided the election) was a cobble-up of a lot of tiny issues.
35
Neil
You obviously weren’t here late yesterday Neil, so don’t worry, you can bet your $6 billion this little bit of (dare I say it?) Napoleonic folly will not go unnoticed by Her Majesty’s Government.
Anyway, I took the liberty of dubbing the young Lord Nelson ‘Horatio Hornet’, in honour of this singular acheivement.
Kinda suits him, n’est pas?
Lose the election please – I would agree with all of that, except I would find most swinging voters probably agree more with Howard on cultural issues.
To see evidence that this election was not fought on cultural issues (Australia waking up), look at all the things Kevin Rudd said during the election.
Most people don’t want the government to weigh in on cultural issues or spend too much time on it. Keating was seen as spending too much time on things that didn’t matter. Rudd spoke all the time about “kitchen-table” issues. He ran a perfect campaign, there wasn’t an actor or muso to be seen, and he won.
Personally, I think the Yanks have it right when they refer to “administrations”, because good governments are those that administrate rather than other things.
Nelson’s election is easy to understand. He received a swag of WA votes.
But, of course, there are strings attached!
No Sorry and also Workchoices is to be defended.
I can do that, Brendan thinks to himself.
However his effort last night on 7.30 Report left me in a spin. Is his elevation a break from the past, which the Party certainly needs, or are they still in a rut – and doggedly determined to stay there?
For WA to be in the position of determining the Liberal leader – AND determining policy direction – demonstrates how close to irrelevance the Libs are becoming.
The strings attached are there for all to see – and they are attached to each joint of Nelson’s body. But the Libs have few options left and irrelevance is nigh.
I am proud to have Julie Bishop as my deputy, not because she is a woman but because of her incredible intellect:
Bishop has no opinion on ’sorry’ issue
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22847180-12377,00.html
Howard C @ 60.
The Libs were a bit unlucky to lose power in 1995.
They got 52% of the 2PP but Labor managed to form government with a majority of one.
Howard C – yet the link to the Alister Drysdale article above in William’s opening indicates that both parties noticed a movement in their tracking polls back towards the Liberals which stopped after the Jackie Kelly fiasco. And the swinging seat in question, Lindsay, was resoundingly returned to Labor. Subconsciously or otherwise, people pay attention to what underlies these sorts of indicents.
I don’t think it is a black and white issue, but more and more people were certainly feeling uncomfortable with the way that Howard has played such cultural politics particularly over this year, cases in point being the emerging reactions to Hicks and Haneef. None of these was a knockout, but Howard just went too far for too long, and this was an issue.
That should be ‘lose power in NSW’ in 1995.
Nice background piece on Penny Wong in the SMH.
Could this be a reference to, well, us, on this blog? -
“Her appearances on the ABC’s Lateline won a solid fan base among news and political junkies and anyone else who watches current affairs late on Friday night.”
There is nothing wrong with WorkChoices per se. The problem was in the selling. Once people understand that this is good for them, they will vote us back into power where we belong.
Can I also say that saying sorry to Aborigines is wrong. Why should we be held responsible for the sins of our forefather which had only the best intentions? The same way as we should not boast or brag about our forefathers who fought so bravely in Gallipolli. It has nothing do with us and we should not be constantly reminded about their deeds.
Both Nelson and Bishop’s positions on an apology are rediculous. It is obvious that both individuals find the position that they are advocating odious. I wonder how long this obfuscation will continue before they are either crushed or confront the deniers hiding in their backrooms.
Wrong as always LETP. The swing was about 75% WorkChoices and about 25% “it’s time,” except in the Qld seats where “we want Kevin” was also a big factor. WC was completely toxic for the Coalition in the suburban and regional marginals. Hockey, who ought to know, has admitted as much, and Turnbull would probably have also done so as leader. But now the Trogs are in control there will be no backdown from WC, which suits us Labor hacks just fine.
William
Corangamite: I calculate will be a cliffhanger despite Labor 2 PP now at 50.47%
with 86.16% vote counted.
Using current todate pre polls , postals & ordinary votes 2PP percentages ,
the current 764 Labor lead will drop to a 160 majority **
(there are no absentee votes in Corrangamite
none of the 5579 absentee votes issued have been received back by aec !)
if there most of these absentee votes issued are in play , Labor can not win it
William , what do you think
Do the bookies have odds on how long this care-taker Nelson will last – I would guess it’ll be as long as it takes for Lib branch members to see the footage they ran on ABC last night of the young Nelson screaming “I’ve never voted Liberal in my life!!!!!”
Optimist – although he wasn’t that young. 93 wasn’t it? And then in the Liberal Party in 94? Must be an impressionable young chap. I wonder when he’ll be off for his stint with the Socialist Alliance?
82 – There would have to be some absentee votes .. and should they run roughly along the same % as the polling booths ?
Optimist 83 can I let you in to a little secret:
I still have never voted Liberal in my life…
…shhhh don’t tell anyone…there are more secrets where that came from…
Adam, I agree with you partially, but think WorkChoices directly played into the ‘its time’ factor. Do you think, if Howard had had his way in 1996 with the Workplace Relations Act that they would’ve definately been thrown out in 1998?
I’d like to think so, but I’m not completely sure. To me, I think WorkChoices deserved a bigger reaction than it received. It really was a terrible moment in Australian history, and think it should be rightly remembered as such.
Generally, I think governments try and introduce their most unpopular policies after big wins (eg. 1996 and 2004). The problem was, the ‘04 win wasn’t anywhere near large enough to counter WC.
I still don’t really understand why, if WorkChoices was such a toxic policy Labor didn’t stick with their original Forward with Fairness plan, without watering it down. Would people have been so scared of it they wouldn’t have voted Labor? I doubt it.
Brendan, did the kindly Mr Shepherd have anything to do with your Damascusian awakening way back then?
Re 60,
Howard C Says:
Well LTEP, wait till you see the IR legislation, I think it will be presented as the abolition of WorkChoices but in reality will be WorkChoices Lite.
Many of the unions have experienced membership losses of 10% of their membership in the last year and the insidious effect of the legislation is that it actually encouraged large companies to think of how to de-unionise. These companies tend to be slow and have slow processes with the effects of these strategies panning out over years.
Look at Qantas, it agreed to cut wages for new staff by 30% and increase working time by 30%, didnt use AWA’s but the effect is likely to be the same.
The election of Nelson and Bishop shows that an “old guard” still have the numbers in the Liberal Party. The Liberals are unreconstructed on the labour market and indigenous affairs: two areas where the Liberals allow ideology to over-rule reason. The WA division is clearly ascendant, which has to be bad news. They have a very great talent for elevating mediocrity and compliance over ability and strength. As long as they control the federal parliamentiary party, the Liberals will go nowehere.
Re 64,
Howard C Says:
I adopted Australia as my home. I don’t cut and run from anything. I have to live the rest of my life with Amanda Vanstones stamped signature on my citizenship certificate [ eeewwwwwwww ]. Will be a long long time though before Labor are again in opposition
Brendan – I’ve heard that you still wear the earing too – is it really worn where i think it’s worn……ouch?!
Optimist 93 my wife approves…:)
Blindoptimist @ 91- And wait until the NSW branch goat sacrificers get together with the WA division. The old guard will look tame compared to what they will cook up together.
I’m with Adam there – not backing down on Workchoices is the biggest “welcome to Government” gift that the Libs could give the ALP.
I think that Keating summed it up with this line…..
“We will not adopt the fantastic hypocrisy of modern conservatism which preaches the values of families and communities, while conducting a direct assault on them through reduced wages and conditions and job security.”
Keating’s Election campaign launch, February 14, 1996.(Very prescient).
Brendan…..please…eeeewwwwwww!
If WA Libs branch is ascendant, it can only be due to their forceful resolution of leadership issues. It is the same threat of force which kept Costello in his box for all these years.
In terms of the NSW division of the Liberal party – I think the uglies are about to become the FUGLIES!
Q’ld is by far the most parochial state having lived there for many years,
The selection of a ‘reasonable’ Queenslander as ALP leader RESULTED in the ALP winning the election by winning huge winning seat margins in Q’ld seats
Without a Q’ld ALP leader , Howard may have won a cliffhanger victory with ALP getting under 52% 2PP.
BEFORE RUDD WAS HEARD OF , from Sept 2006 the polls showed a 4% swing directly caused by the ACTU work choices ads.
Clearly work choices is what won the 4% swing (Rudd’s elevation locked the 4% in and being a Queenslander then delivered the bonus big swing Q’ld seats)
Optimist you can talk medical things with a doctor and then turn all queasy…
BN @ 98, you should take a closer look at the WA Liberals at a local level: very disappointing. By comparison, they make a quite inept Labor State Government appear almost passable. Aside from the state party, taken as a whole, the federal Lib contingent is as lacklustre as could be. But I have an alarming thought: they could be typical of Liberals everywhere.
Brendan…….not queasy, just a bit disturbed.
I wonder if it makes a difference to the public what flavour of government is in power during economic good times? So long as you don’t do something really silly many of the voters simply ’sleep-walk’ and assume you have the credit for the good times.
Mr Howard handled the issues of Workchoices and Iraq very poorly and woke up the sleep-walkers. If he had introduced Workchoices after a good deal of public and parliamentary discussion and then pushed it through much of the bite would have been removed. Sell it then make it mandatory. Howard could have also morphed the combat role to a training role in Iraq as soon as it became apparent the issue was on the nose and, thus kept the faith with GWB.
It wasn’t so much the issues but how and when they were handled. This is why he lost not to mention Rudd stealing all the good issues as soon as he was made leader of the opposition. Howard’s political acumen wasn’t up to scratch, laziness and over-confidence.
I don’t like Workchoices at all but I reckon Howard could have sold it if he was willing to bother – the public seemed to always listen to him and give him the benefit whenever he made the effort.
One part of that failure is due to the low standard of people he kept around him and their easy compliance. How all these ministers in a long term government got beaten in their respective debates is beyond me.
Nelson clearly ties himself to the past with Workchoices and not-sorry and this really helps Labor by clearly showing the divide between the two parties. Whilst it continues it will entrench public opinion and push Rudd Labor further out in front. The Liberal party really needs to take all these things on-board to show that they ‘get it’ and have changed and now once more worthy.
If the economy sticks together for another 3 years then Labor could end up occupying the top job for many many years thereafter.
Julie Bishop sets the Liberal Party’s modus operandi for their stint in Opposition… reactive politics.
__________________________________________________
Julie Bishop has no opinion on ’sorry’ issue
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22847180-29277,00.html
Ms Bishop declined to offer a view on the issue today.
“It’s now up to the new government to take a position on this and then we will respond accordingly,” she told ABC Radio.
__________________________________________________
I have to say… that’s a very poor start. They need to know the other side’s position before they can have one? Weak.
Cross-post from the McEwan discussion:
I’ve been doing some further numbers…
* Ordinary (polling booth) results in McEwan are about 3500 below what might be expected based on the 2004 results, adjusted for the 9% increase in enrollment in McEwan from 2004. Consequently, the “3000 missing votes” may yet turn up.
* Based on 2004 returns, there are likely to be approximately 4000 absentee, 1500 pre-poll and 1000 postals yet to be counted, or a little over.
* If remaining absentee, pre-poll and postal returns remain consistent with trends to date this results in around 3115 extra votes to the ALP and 2385 to the Liberal Party. This would be enough for the ALP to win the seat by a bit over 200 votes.
Caveats:
* The current percentage of absentees going to the ALP (61%) is dramatically higher than 2004 (44%) yet postals and prepoll are more consistent with 2004 (2004 – 39% pre-poll, 39% postal to ALP; 2007 – 45% prepoll, 40% postal to ALP). This suggests that there might be some weirdness in the early absentee counting. If the 61% absentee ALP vote doesn’t hold up then the Liberal party looks pretty safe.
* We’ve been lead to believe that if these 3000 mystery votes ever appear they’re likely to favor the ALP. Although it’s possible that they’re still out there I personally won’t be holding my breath.
Conclusion: the ALP remains a real chance here, but given the above uncertainties my money is on the Liberal Party retaining the seat by a nose.
Nelson married thrice!!
OMG hahahhhh what is wrong with him.
What is his relegion? Certainly not Christian, they don’t allow/endorse divorce
(for which I don’t agree)
Liberals grilled Latham for his second marriage. Look at their leader Nelson now.
What a bad substitude! I bet Nelson won’t last long.
Lose the election please, I never liked your posts until you revealed that you were one of us working undercover. Now that we have indeed lost the election, you change sides? You sir are a turncoat, a rat in the ranks.
Best graphic from election night.
http://dailyflute.com/?p=1340
Thinking about Rudy Guiliani’s efforts to get the Republican nomination in the U.S – he was recently described by a fellow conservative as the “thrice married, cross-dressing, gun-suppressing abortionist from New York.”
Not great credential for appealing to your base – wonder if Nelson’s status as the “thrice married former ALP member” might hurt him with the Hillsong gang and others.
William , you say you do not know alot about the Liberal Party
Well it is summed up by a phrase EVERY wet & dry Liberal ever includes when describing what the Liberal Party stands for :
‘individual choice’
You are on your own in a ‘market’ economy and the ‘best’ will earn the most.
Schools, Hospitals , private health insurance , indeed ‘all services’ belong in a
‘market economy’ where those who have earned the most benefit
Labor’s values of equity of opportunity , ‘fair go’ and compassion support are in conflict with the above Liberal values.
Work choices IS CONSISTENT therefore with Liberal values
ESJ
If you’re still around, you noted previously that many unions have seen a big drop in membership since the introduction of workchoices (or the introduction of the ALPs policy response). Have you some data to back this?
Ta.
Ron @ 111 – so there is a philosophical base for the Liberal Party after all- The law of the jungle – let the strong survive and the weak make their own arrangements.
But wait – what about the huge payments to pay the cost of starting and maintaining private schools, drought relief and tax breaks for farmers. So where is the consistency with the philosophical base there? Law of the jungle for some, molly-coddling for others. I really would like to ID that immutable inner core of the Liberal Party, but it seems awfully elusive so far.
William reported on the Business Spectator which said: It’s also argued that the fake Jeff Kennett letter regarding proposed funding cuts to the states had the same impact during the last week of the 1996 campaign.
This is tommy-rot. 1996 was the best example ever of the polls being stuck in a rut and not moving one inch from 1 year before the election until right up to the election itself. There is not the slightest public polling evidence that Keating was making some sort of comeback.
Could be true in 2007…. definitely NOT true in 1996.
Hey gang, just came back from sitting beside a swimming pool in Broome for the last 6 days. Did I miss anything important? That Galaxy poll was outside MOE wasn’t it?
115 Nothing to see here situation normal. The Galaxy poll is looking better this week than last week. It’s like a good port just improves with age.
Who wants to predict what the final 2PP will be ??
Sat night it was 53.41% …presently 52.95% ( & has fallen hourly since Sat nite)
is Galaxy 52 to 48 going to be proved right
I guess 52.5% but I wish I knew WHERE in the aec site you can find “National”
figures for no. of pre polls & postals RECEIVED by the aec ??
the aec only give the “National” pre polls & postals counted. We need both stats
(then we’d know “National” how many remain uncounted…I can only find it per seat
Julie Bishop on saying Sorry…
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22847180-29277,00.html
“It’s now up to the new government to take a position on this and then we will respond accordingly,” she told ABC Radio.
Her leader said the party won’t say sorry.
Now the deputy says something else (like, we’ll wait to see if we can engineer some political mileage for ourselves after Labor reveals its position).
So which is it guys? The Howard line or the Machiavellian line?
Not a good start for the new team
The Lindsay pamphlet thing was a demonstrable mistake that everyone would consider a terrible thing to try and do. But the Liberal Party doesn’t have a mortgage on idiocy.
steve #116,
Your other name wouldn’t happen to be Steven Kaye, would it?
It’s not up to the Coalition to say sorry NOW that they are in opposition. Certainly the political parties don’t hold any responsibility for the stolen generation; it is the Australian Government which holds responsibility.
Newspoll Monday – Nelson leads Rudd on the crucial question of who’s best for economic management…..
I think Labor will scrape in in Bowman, comparing figures to ‘04 and they haven’t started counting provisionals yet.
Ron Brown, check out latest Bowman count, hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
If they could pull Turnbull back a tad from the “left” of the Liberals he’d do excellent. Nelson is going to take them under, deep under. I’m a member and I’m absolutely disgusted at the choice.
Labor’s lead has increased by 90 votes since this morning.
Corangamite has now been removed from the ‘close’ seat count. Still yet to start counting absentees or provisionals.
120 Certainly not. I have been very critical of Galaxy but as Ron Brown pointed out at 117 the National figures have been falling steadily since Saturday night, as the postal votes due to incumbants having more staff etc and better resources to sure up votes makes Galaxy look better, much as I dislike to admit it.
News on the Queensland stalemate is that the Libs are having a meeting on Monday to resolve the Leadership issue. Could be a long meeting.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/deadlock-must-be-broken-flegg/2007/11/30/1196037126505.html
Corangamite – the absentee votes only favoured McArthur 52.48:47.52 in 2004.
His prepoll 2PP is down from 59.83 in 2004 to 55.06 this time so far, and his postal 2PP is down from 61.86 to 56.27. If that pattern holds up the absentee votes may well favour Labor.
Yo Ho Ho,
Yes go to http://www.airc.gov.au and look at the registered organisation files. Pick the name of any union and find anyone that has reported its 2006-2007 financial results and you will see there has been a decline on average of about 10%.
Have you seen the photo of a young Nelson in his cowboy hat and moustache? Looks scarily like Ivan Milat.
Updates:
Bowman: Labor lead up to 116
Dickson: Labor trails by 154
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/sorry-issue-splits-libs/2007/11/30/1196037125789.html
“Today, Dr Nelson said he had cried while reading about the plight of Aboriginal Australians in the past, but Australians should not be sorry about it.”
Any bets on how long this contradiction might go on? Could go one of two ways – he’ll do a Blainey and distance himself from the left and start to go loopy on a range of things, or do what he feels is morally correct.
Given his history, I’d be inclined to think the former.
Maccas Guy 69 votes behind in Herbert!
I suspect the ALP will be happy with the role the “celebrity candidates” played. Helped give the illusion of change for the party and helpfully most of them,
Maccas Guy
SAS Guy
Army Guy 1 ( La Trobe)
Glamour Girl
Thoughtful Girl
just missed out. Maxine and Army Guy 2 wont be able to cause too much disruption ( a la Cheryl) on their own.
Ron Brown – Corangamite will be won by the Cheeseman!
‘Maccas Guy’ was a celebrity?
By glamour girl Edward should I assume you’re talking about our Belinda?
Hasnt Army Guy 1 made a bit of a comeback today?
ESJ, don’t forget Union Guys 1 & 2.
Picked up .2 %TPP so far today.
That seems a fair movement Gary. Do you know how much counting thee has been?
About 13% left to count.
LTEP Maccas Guy is a celebrity in Townsville. Glamour Girl is Cornes in Boothby. Belinda is just a Central Coast local fighting for her community.
Pancho always the loyalist, admirable. Like the English generals in the chateaus I am certain your field of Flanders efforts are admired by high command.
ESJ you seem to be intent on looking for inconsequential victories where ever you can find them. This is all peripheral to the main game, which is of course that LABOR ARE BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ESJ – my supervisor is os at the moment chairing a history conference. Will have to check with him if my efforts are admired on his return.
How’s yr blog going?
Oh dear LTEP says Labor will win Bowman. We are doomed. That’s the only good news Laming has had all year.
The ALP factional system is generally misunderstood, invariably misrepresented in the media and often did the Party no favours when internal brawling hit the news. The system was developed to organise and give official voice to the various philosophical positions that inhabit the Labor party. They also served to ensure that leadership decisions were based on advice received from across the Party and not just on the Leader’s own views/biases/perceptions. This democratic approach to decision-making contrasts with the Liberal party where the Leader is supreme and his (it’s always a he) word is law. This is a weakness for the Libs in that the leader’s power is hard to assail and when the leader pursues an unwise course the whole machine follows him into oblivion (witness their current position). With Mr Rudd muzzling the factions and centralising power in himself, is the ALP now in danger of committing the same folly as the Libs??
Actually I think its a real shame that all of them will go down Gary. If they had got up it would have been a significant bloc which could have led to opening up and democratisation in the ALP.
Yes the Labcest candidates got up – mores the pity!
More proofs less blogging required Pancho.
Ah, you make me laugh ESJ, if that IS your real name.
Peter Lindsay should be thanking his lucky stars for all those defence personnel in Lindsay, although why they all vote Liberal is beyond me.
Correction: I meant to say Herbert, not Lindsay – still got Jackie Kelly on the brain LOL
Please note too:
who exactly has KR surrounded himself with (ie who has the clout in Cabinet)?
Faulkner
Gillard
Kim Carr
Penny Wong
Fitzgibbon
Crean
ie, the old Latham loyalists.
The more things change the more they stay the same eh?
ESJ, I suppose you’ll be all over Nelson when he selects Howard loyalists to serve in his Shadow Ministry. Unfortunately in a leadership vote people have to vote for someone and obviously they thought Latham was the best leader at the time… although why they did I’ll never know.
Incidentally, your views on the Nelson/Bishop selection? I thought it utterly predictable.
I’m still hopeful that Laming will go – has anyone ever seen this preening little do-nothing pretty boy?
I can’t wait for my honeymoon to start….
No mention of the ‘roosters’ now ESJ, who occupy the positions that Costello and Downer did?
For mine – I couldn’t be happier that Faulkner and Gillard will be doing the running.
Howard Hater at 151
“why they all vote Liberal is beyond me”
They think voting Labor is for guys with small, er, feet.
Hey Brendan, isn’t three enough?
I’d just like to point out that I don’t know who Steve is or why he puts a link to every post I do in the comments. But I’m sure he is very nice.
I would have voted for Latham too. Got them closer to getting to Rudd. They just had to go to Beazley for a while.
Just to get back to the actual topic of discussion (ahem…) the Libs appear to have done a Beazley and elected Nelson as a transitional leader just like the ALP did after the 2004 deluge… I agree with Kroger, you do not necessarily need 5 years to get it right (where there is a will, there is a way) and the Libs would have to regroup within the next 3 years to have any chance of winning the 2010.
Not that I wish it to happen! Agree with William about the potential of one Malcolm Turnbull, I am not sure why I like the guy (strewth, never thought I would say this about a Tory), but perhaps that is because of his social-liberal beliefs.
The most obvious challenge for Nelson is not whether or not to say ’sorry’, or what to do with the vote on WorkChoices, but how to establish some sort of equillibrium within the party and maintain it.
I still think he will either fail dismally or succeed just enough to set the background for the next leader who will take the Libs into the 2010 election, and that certainly won’t be Bishop.
Daily Tele ‘… and Kevin Rudd announces he will not be guided by his religious beliefs.’
There’s a blessed relief!
Pancho you forgot Conroy? The roosters might be in Cabinet but its pretty clear which faction is dominant.
LTEP – IMO Nelson needs to focus on the internals in the first year.
Work out who is not in it for the long haul, for example Downer and organise their transition out of parliament and bring in fresh blood without losing any seats in by-elections.
Ideally should be looking to have more people come in who are not from a WASP background. For example an Asian candidate in Berowra could be a big winner for the Liberals. Given the HK Chinese community is a natural fit with the Liberals for example.
But for sure the Opposition front bench will be weaker – always is immediately after a loss but its the quality of people who come into the safe seats now that will count later.
Otherwise sit back and wait for Labor to make mistakes. Why commit yourself to anything until you see the colour of the IR legislation or how the “sorry” works. Interestingly KR for all his blathering about sorry has already ruled out compensation – how courageous, Gestures not substance it seems at least in this area are the order of the day.
111
Ron Brown
Saying that the Liberal Party stands for ‘individual choice’ is like saying the Liberal Party stands for ‘motherhood’, which if unqualified, actually means a teensy bit less than sod all.
You know what, Labor stands for ‘individual choice’ too, so let’s examine a couple of the things you cite:
Work Choices, now let’s see, the boss gets to make the choice of what conditions you work under, and the worker gets to make the choice to ‘find another job’ (er, maybe, or more likely, maybe not). Clearly, the issue is about POWER, and giving it all to one side was roundly rejected by the far more sensible portion of the electorate.
Private Medical Insurance. Is it really ‘private’, or is it a publicly subsidised system to keep the insurance industy well lubricated and to keep those able to afford it with access to a much higher class of medical care? Once again it’s about power, the power of the medical profession and the insurance industry to extract money from the ‘commonwealth’, for its own enhancement.
Private Schools: same thing. The power is clear, wealth and privilege Vs the commonwealth.
So why do all these ‘private’ institutions need ‘public’ funding? Well, in your ideal market economy they shouldn’t, but the reality is they have ‘power’, and under the previous Liberal government, they got what they wanted and the public (or common) wealth was gradually being siphoned off to their side of the ledger.
Arguments about whether private enterprise is always more efficient is full of blah blah, and I’m not going to go there here, but suffice to say, when the boat starts to list too far to one side, we are smart enough as a nation to tilt it back again.
ESJ: George Colbran isn’t a celebrity candidate. He has been involved with the ALP since 1980. They didn’t just go and say ‘Hey wanna be apart of our party’. He even went through the preselection process, and won it over a union official (by a decent majority).
Pancho let me just put on the record that we all make mistakes.
And I don’t believe premature elevation is a problem anyway.
It can often be misdiagnosed such as was the case for Costello. Trust me, I’m a doctor.
Are the Liberals honestly going to vote against the apology in parliament?
That would look hilarious, the house actually having to divide to vote on a condolence motion. That probably hasn’t happened for 100 years.
He seemed to be endorsing the Thomas Paine / Jefferson position, that religion is a direct connection between a person and their god, and that the state should have nothing to do with it.
165 kirribili – that’s right, and not one Lib supporter has been able to even attempt to enunciate a core principle of the party this morning
In the absence of any base belief, their reason for being must simply be to exist for the purposes of defeating the other big party whatever their policies, good or bad, so they can give heaps to their own special idealogical friends.
How many people do you think support an “apology” in Flynn or Solomon, ShowsOn?
What kind of preselection process Will?
The Libs’ slow gains in 2PP will taper off, and Labor will probably win around 52.8% 2PP, a reversal of the 2004 result. This is because most of the pro-Lib postals and pre-polls have already been counted; what remains is mostly the absentee and provisional counts, which will favour Labor in 2PP by about the same or better than the ordinary votes. You can see current count for all vote types here:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByPartyByVoteType-13745-NAT.htm
and the same for 2004 here:
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseStateFirstPrefsByPartyByVoteType-12246-NAT.htm
Maybe it was an anti-Maccas vote and they should have gone with Union Guy #3? and Union Guy #4 in La Trobe?
Whether the people support it or not is of no consequence. Policy shouldn’t be decided on the basis of popularity… it should be decided on whether its the right thing to do. The right thing to do undoubtedly is to make an apology to the Indigenous people, not from the people necessarily but as an enduring Government of Australia. This means that governments ought to take responsibility to rectify the wrongs of previous governments.
Now, I also believe there should be compensation… but that’s not for this place…
169
ShowsOn
Rudd’s professional background is as a diplomat, and you don’t start with “hi, I believe in god the father, the son, and the holy f#@3ing ghost, you heathen!”
It was always a safe bet that KR was going to do ‘good’ things without asking us to genuflect (unlike many other ‘do gooders’). Nup, he’s consumately in charge of the nation, it’s not about his particular sect.
Well, the Victorian Liberals say this:
We believe in the inherent dignity, responsibility and potential of all Victorians. We believe that government must protect the freedoms of all Victorians and provide the opportunity for all people to achieve their full potential.
We believe in the fundamental freedoms of individuals and groups within society to think, to worship, to speak, to choose and to associate.
We believe in upholding the Constitution, parliamentary democracy, the democratic process and accountable government.
We believe in equality before the law.
We believe that families provide the most effective environment for individuals to achieve their full potential.
We believe in equal opportunities for all Australians in a tolerant and diverse society.
We believe in the protection of people who are vulnerable, in ill health, disadvantaged or in need, and in providing them with effective assistance.
We believe that the creation of wealth is essential for meeting our national and individual aspirations and that individual effort should be appropriately rewarded.
We believe that free enterprise will maximise economic growth and national prosperity.
We believe that where the private sector can deliver a service efficiently and fairly, an unnecessary burden should not be imposed on the tax payer.
We believe in the decentralisation and distribution of power and believe that local decisions are best made at the local level.
We believe in securing our national heritage and natural environment now and for future generations.
160 Flute, I think I just share your perverse sense of humour.
169 – Yes, an excellent position to adopt by Jefferson & co. Best to keep quiet about one’s imaginary friends in public. Leave them out of the meetings too, if they won’t be too hurt.
Michael @ 125, a member of what?
JV @ 163. A person’s religious beliefs can’t simply be neutralised whenever it suits. They will always form the basis of their value system. This is not something to be feared. Some of Labor’s (and the world’s) best leaders have had strong religious convictions. Problems arise when the holder of these beliefs believes that everyone else should hold them too and that those who do not are somehow lesser creatures to be villified or worse. Abbott, for example is a fundamentalist Catholic. Others are fundamentalist protestants (the Hillsong set). The American religious right is a sadly notable case in point. The fundamentalist mindset becomes dangerous when any act becomes permissable if it serves what is believed to be the best interests of whatever Deity or Cause is proclaimed. So far Australia has resisted such movements and I doubt it will arise to the same degree here. Though I do get concerned with the influence generated by the Exclusive Brethren and sundry other nutters of the far right. As for Mr Rudd, his religious values underpin his social justice and social democrat beliefs. All rather benign really.
ESJ – given your own somewhat eloquent beliefs on the subject (if I am remembering correctly) I find it odd that you are giving us:
‘Otherwise sit back and wait for Labor to make mistakes. Why commit yourself to anything until you see the colour of the IR legislation or how the “sorry” works.’
and
‘How many people do you think support an “apology” in Flynn or Solomon, ShowsOn?’
without blinking, questioning why your party would want to play partisan games with this issue, or even calling for some leadership from them.
Great to see KR went to Matt Price’s funeral in Perth.
Given what is on his plate ATM to take virtually a full day off to honor a great bloke says much about both Price and KR.
How is this relevant?
It’s how many that support it in the parliament that counts, and that would be a majority. So if the House has to divide, the Government motion would pass, making the opposition look petty, and making Malcolm Turnbull look like a hypocrite.
#177
We believe that it is our right to put in mediocre Opposition Leaders.
Ta for the link ESJ
We believe that for every drop of rain that falls a flower grows. AAAAhhhhhh…..
Just as well they are already out of their misery.
KR (165), you are spot on. The Liberals currently stand for nothing but privilege and more privilege for those already privileged, via the transfer of wealth from public to private hands.
Con artist that he was, Howard was the acceptable face of this belief, while misfits like People Skills, Tip and Lord Downer were/are the unacceptable face.
Mentioning the the words face and Half Nelson in the same sentence does no-one any favours, but there you go.
Um, just off the top of my head, but what does everyone think about apologising to the indigenous population first, and then as part of the apology, to all Australian people on behalf of all govts (past and present) for messing the whole thing up.
It would importantly differentiate between laying blame on mainstream Australia (which is where i think the opposition comes from) and instead put the blame on the govts of the past….
Jefferson of course authored a new version of the bible with all the mystical stuff relating to virgin births, and people returning from the dead removed.
Even though I am the Leader now, I still have the same views but I promote them where it’s appropriate.
Ferny @ 181 [As for Mr Rudd, his religious values underpin his social justice and social democrat beliefs. All rather benign really.]
I’ll put up with that if it doesn’t interfere, but would prefer if his ideas of justice and equality were underpinned by his own intellectual enquiry. You don’t need religion for a sense of compassion and belief in justice
183
MayoFeral Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 1:43 pm
Great to see KR went to Matt Price’s funeral in Perth.
Given what is on his plate ATM to take virtually a full day off to honor a great bloke says much about both Price and KR.
…but I suspect he won’t be attending the ‘professional’ funerals of either the Shamahan or the Albrechtgnome.
Does anyone have a list of the MPs who voted for which candidate in yesterday’s Liberal leadership race? They usually publish the lists of which MP voted for whom in the papers but I haven’t seen one around in the various publications today
I think people who say, ‘Well I’m still the same’ and all of that, they are deceiving themselves. I think we all change in a way.
But we have a representative democracy, so such a statement would implicitly blame previous generations of Australians for electing the people who carried out those ill thought out policies.
I’ve been laughing all day about the Libs deciding to put their nuts in a blender with Nelson and Bishop.
Couldnt have played it worse! Now they’re backtracking on recantations, Turnbull came close enough to ensure they are divided for 3 years, the Costelloites are still getting screwed, and thats without even factoring in Abbott.
I see a rough road ahead …
Yo Ho Ho, I’ve never imagined ’sorry’ to ever be the Government speaking for the Australian people. It’s about today’s government apologising for the wrongs of previous governments.
In relation to apologies from the Australian people, a registry could be set up for people to record their acceptance of a ‘peoples’ apology’. This way, anyone who didn’t wish to apologise wouldn’t need to.
192, I think Shanahan has already started sucking up to Labor.
Haven’t seen it. The interesting thing revealed in The Australian was that a lot of NSW conservatives who were going to support Abbott supported Nelson instead.
Abbott probably asked them to, given that Nelson will be easier to dislodge at a later date than Turnbull.
Once the apology happens, people will realise the sky hasnt fallen in – and it was just a decent thing to do.
Then the Libs will look like complete pillocks, and worse, irrelevant ones. cant be undone.
They should have stuck with Mal’s u-turn.
ESJ: shows how little you know again, Colbran’s opponent in the preselection was female, so she couldn’t have been Union Guy #3.
The preselection was done under normal ALP process in May last year, long before Rudd took over and even longer before Rudd gave the National Exec the right to overturn any preselection and put in a candidate of their own choosing. Vote was something like over 200 to less than 100. Who says the ALP machine favours union officials?
The whole thing in Herbert isn’t anti-Maccas, it’s the defence force vote that is voting Liberal. Remember the swing in Herbert was 6.2% to the ALP, which is above the overall swing.
ESJ: if you’re talking about hack political candidates winning seats, Alex Hawke comes to mind – did anyone else notice there was quite a swing against the Liberals in Mitchell?
PD1981, about as close as I got to was this article in the Age today
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/backroom-deal-seals-nelson-bid/2007/11/29/1196037074766.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
apparently, Nick Minchin was crucial to persuading 6 WA voters to go Nelson way
194 Brendan’s going to morph into a deluded Tabitha as soon as he learns the art of the couplet.
Why do soldiers vote Liberal?
Howard Hater because they want to fight.
199
ShowsOn
It was obvious that Tony People SKills (or TPS, Terminal Papal Syndrome) was going to set his crew against Malbull. Imagine a ‘liberal’ running the Liberal Party…oh my god, he just could not let that happen!
Here we have John of Melbourne confirming the Liberal Party as the party of war. How flattering.
I got a questionnaire from the “your rights @work” people the other night. One of the questions asked what can th YR@W campaign do or continue with now the election has been won?
I responded that the Australian union movement needs to do a PR campaign to lift its public profile as it is susseptable to being bashed by the media as well as the Liberals as a unloved 19th century OLGER that destroys jobs & wealth.
The union movement has helped Australian worker with attaining better pay & conditions for over 100 years now but it need to define itself better in 21st century to its relevance in relation to IR, social justice & public perception.
Australia needs better outcomes for its workers thru its unions. Unions that not only perform in IR advocacy but also are seen as a positive contributer to the economic viability to our country fortunes as well.
HH: All I can work out is that something in the early 90’s turned them off Labor and they’ve been following the Libs since, but I think generally the defence will go the way of the government once a government changes. This is because no one accuses spending money on defence as pork barreling.
Oh well, the residents of Herbert won’t be getting any government largesse for the next 3 years – that’s what they get for reelecting that prick Lindsay.
JV @ 191 It’s not an either/or scenario but a both/and scenario. Rudd’s religious beliefs and his social views re justice etc would, I’m sure, be informed by both his faith and his intellectual enquiry. His is not an unintelligent faith. Nor is he a fundamentalist who accepts his religious views unquestioningly and forces them upon others who are expected to also suspend their disbelief and submit. As I say, Mr Rudd’s faith is part of who he is. His decisions will undoubtedly be based to large degree on his values which will be based, in part at least, on his faith. You will find that this will make him firmly committed to social justice – hence his recent concerns re the homeless.
They won’t even get the stupid car race Lindsay and Howard promised them LOL
Howard Hater, there is something inherently conservative about having an army-oulook despite the fact that some of the best ALP men are ‘into’ the whole defence thing… like Kimbo is a big defence history nut, and is apparently going to Uni of WA next year as a Professorial Fellow in the Politics Department.
But really, you’d have to be into the whole individualism and self-discipline philosophy and that is what both the army and the Libs have in common. That, and a belief that wars solve a lot of foreign policy problems.
I still have very fond memories of my childhood when I was sitting on the verandah with my dad and grandad singing those moving and uplifting songs:
Avanti popolo, alla riscossa
Bandiera rossa, bandiera rossa
Avanti popolo, alla riscossa
Bandiera rossa trionferà
and
???? ??, ????????? ?????????
??????? ????? ?????,
??????? ?????? ????? ?????,
?? ???????? — ???????!
? ???? ???? ??????? ??????
??? ?????? ???? ? ???????, —
??? ??? ??? ??? ?? ?????? ??????
????? ????? ????? ?????.
|: ??? ???? ??? ?????????
? ??????????? ???.
? ???????????????
????????? ??? ???????!
Howard C at 177
Unfortunately these won’t stack up as sustainable now, in Victoria or anywhere else. Every single one of these points was trashed over the entirety of the past 11 years. Look at the 3rd & 4th ones for a start:
‘We believe in upholding the Constitution, parliamentary democracy, the democratic process and accountable government.
‘We believe in equality before the law.’
It’s back to the drawing board at Lib headquarters I’m afraid (I wonder where that is)
200
Lefty E
Agree completely about the ‘apology’.
It’s not a problem to try and heal some awful race relations by expressing sorry to a people who have known so much more than a bearable share of it.
Any heartless bastard that cannot see that, or wants to hide behind some jibberish semantics is not qualified for ‘public’ life. We, the public, know what it means, and we do not need some suburban solicitor to parse it for us.
And yet a lot of soldiers/ADF recruits come from working class backgrounds, which makes you think they’d be more disposed to vote Labor. Puzzling to say the least.
Yes, Shanahan’s re-ducation has been swift, but others need some time to accept that the natural party of government is no longer the party of government.
La Trioli’s radio programme in Sydney has been wall to wall Liberals all week, bravely explaining why the heaven’s have, if only temporarily, realigned themselves.
And this morning she had the wonderfully inpartial Bruce Shepard ex-AMA president explaining just why Half Nelson was deserving of sainthood, and at the same time ponting out that the AMA was not a union. Heavens no.
I think that it’s all been a bit much for Virginia, what with her party’s defeat, and the meltdown of her great friend Caroline the slapper Overington.
This morning she referred to the Liberal leader as Brendan Turnbull, then tried to explain it away be stating that Turnbull was the deputy anyway, so she was half right.
Please try to keep up Virginia. You are a Walkely winning journalist, after all. Just like Caroline
Funnily enough, because the Defence Department is always exempted from efficiency measures / budget cuts that apply to other public service agencies, it is the most wasteful inefficient department in the Public Service by a country mile.
They have had qualified audit reports in terms of their financial reporting for about 6 years in a row now. That means that the auditor can’t be satisfied that what they have reported as their financial position is in fact correct. Should be a national scandal but no-one seems to care.
It could do with a fine-tooth comb run over it and a lot of the waste trimmed. Never happen though, no government can be seen to be ’skimping’ on our national defence.
215 translation from Russian
There has never been any saviour of the world,
Nor deities, nor emperors on which to depend.
To create Mankind’s happiness
We must entirely depend on ourselves!
We shall retake the fruits of our labour,
And let the mind burst free from its prison cell.
Let the flames in the furnace burn red-hot,
For only when the iron is hot will we succeed in forging it!
This is the final struggle,
Unite together towards tomorrow,
The Internationale
Shall definitely be realised.
Kirribilli Removals @ 192
I would. With a ‘professional’ wooden stake, just to make sure the buggers really were ‘professionally’ cactus!
And then I’d start applying some of my time to working out how to rid this country of Rupert’s dark influence. IMuHO, we don’t need foreigners pursuing their own international agendas interfering in our national affairs.
Howard Hater…it is time to change your nom de plume. What about Rudd Relisher?
Sorry about the many typos in 219.
HH: Actually, Rudd promised the money first. Please tell me that Labor is going to have a Senator based in Townsville. That way they Senator can take credit for what the government is about to do for NQ, especially Townsville.
HA David: I still love hating Howard, but I guess I should change it LOL
Nothing that Greg Combet cant fix Howard Hater. He can deploy some of that unctuous charm on those poor rubes in the ADF hey?
Well if you are going to do anything about it the first year of a new government would be the time. Plus it has the added political benefit that the new Leader of the Opposition was the last Minister for Defence, so if Tanner / Swan can prove there is extensive waste in Defence, on top of the Super Hornets, they can lay the blame with Nelson.
Whtas the latest with Caroline Overthetop? Has she had a breakdown and is that that why she is on ‘leave’?
Whilst looking at the veritable source Wikipedia this morning I noticed Stephen Smith listed as Minister for Western Australia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Rudd_Ministry
Please tell me this is a mistake. Otherwise they may as well have named it “Minister for Win us Some Seats”.
Here you are David Charles: new name LOL
KR….I always love your work. Just go easy on us solicitors and our parsing
222
MayoFeral
Oh yes, slaying the Jabberwocky (oh, frabjous day!!!) was one thing, but smothering Rupert the Bear, cautiously and deftly, will be another thing entirely.
ferny 212
Sorry but I think that faith in the supernatural is basically unintelligent and irrational.
I give Jason Young a good chance of winning Bowman: the postals have actually gone his way, unlike for his Labor colleagues in other places.
209 Unions should have to justify their existence as a service provider to the workplace. They will have to wean themselves off the politics and the Labor party and learn to just deal with the injustices, OH&S, how to prepare a productiivity case etc. The asbestos campaign is a great example.
Uni unions have the same problem.
Matt Price was offered the job of Mark Latham’s press secretary:
“[Price was offered jobs at] Nine, Seven, editor of the Bulletin, West Australian, Mark Latham’s press secretary, host of Media Watch, the list goes on”
How good of Rudd to attend Matt Price’s funeral, and he’s going to Bernie Banton’s funeral next week also.
Surely as a union official AG01 – you can acknowledge that the “link” hurts unions more than it helps?
Adrian (#219)
Has there been any word on the future of the Slapper, Ms Overington?
Wonder what someone has to do to get sacked from the Australian?…….oh yeah, demonstrate journalistic professionalism.
229 Tory Crimes
I love Caroline. She loved me too every time I gave her an exclusive story
What have you heard? I don’ know what’s happened to her as she seems to have gone AWOL.
I miss Matt.
Brendan Nelson: I’d be watching out for those knives in your back, Mr Turnball has a lot of them
HA David: I still love hating Howard, but I guess I should change it LOL
Problem is none of the current crop seem worthy of investing anything more than contempt…
234 – jaundiced view: faith is by its nature irrational.
241 – i think ms overington “wants to spend more time with her family”.
HH; a lot of working-class people vote Liberal, think ‘Howard’s battlers’
ed@bennelong: I have no idea how on Earth you can explain why you think unions should just be service providers when their biggest role is in advocacy for the workers/students. And I don’t just say that as a former union staffer/student politician either…. You sound Tory-esque in seeing an advocacy body as ’service provider’, which is exactly what the Libs tried to do with the VSU at unis.
Ed@b. Its hard for the unions to separate from the Labor party when the Labor party was born from the union movement. Unions that dont perform normally amalgamate with a larger or similar union.
I guess there are some union bosses & organiser that can lift their game. It always good to have a union that shows up when required rather than one thats in the bosses pocket & pay only lip service.
Progressive 243 I am not scared of knives. I love using scalpels and I have successfully operated on Malcolm’s brain by separating his 2 frontal lobes. I have made him what he is today.
I remember fondly when I had the same operation and it was so much easier afterwards to forgive myself for my communist upbringing. I recommend it highly to all and sundry.
JV @ 234 It is certainly irrational but some highly intelligent people have chosen faith over reason. Human’s are complex creatures. Sometimes pure reason isn’t enough and our decisions are based on something more…or less. For the record I have qualifications in theology and in law. These days I’m an agnostic lawyer. I’ve met the good, bad and the very ugly from the God botherer set. The mistake we must not make is to assume that all people who profess a faith are somehow stupid or inferior. If we do that we simply become intellectual fundamentalists and fall ino the same hole as the religious fanatics. It’s not so much what a person says they believe that interests me; it’s how they treat others and the contribution they make to the community that matters most.
You have to laugh: so much for Moneybags Malcolm’s ability to count numbers LOL
Brendan, have you always had so much brain-space in your head or is this an illusion caused by receding temples?
Labor got most of them back in 1998. Howard’s Battlers is really a bit of a myth created by Andrew Robb.
Ohh contraire…. Turnbull engineered it perfectly!!!
He went from far left no hoper to “leader in waiting” in one fell swoop. And left Nelson to carry the can.
Keating lost his first challenge. As did Rudd.
Well, on Sunday he repeated his Republicanism, said the opposition should support ratification of Kyoto, and say Sorry.
It seems he thought he was running for the Labor leadership – given that Nelson was one of the other candidates, that is somewhat understandable.
G’day ESJ. I am not an official for any union but I have benefited for being a member & getting better pay & conditions & service thru the unions that I have been a member off. I have been served well.
As I have mention before the union movement needs a decent PR campaign so no negative perceived so called ‘links’ or any other aspersions be casted upon it by malicious detractors.
ShowsOn: and then they were lost again to Howard in 2004 usurped by the low-interest-rates call…. Howard’s battlers as a term may be purely PR exercise, but I think voting intentions of the Australian working class are always far more conservative than any ‘false consciousness’ theory can explain.
ferny grover, most people don’t “choose” to have [religious] faith. most are born into it. a bit like how it used to be with political party support – horatio nelson being an exception, it would seem.
rates analyst, you might be crediting malcolm turnbull with much more political nouse than he deserves.
Herbert has blown out from 64 to 78 votes!
Popcorn @ 258. Nelson’s history tells us that he believes whetever the loudest voice and his self-interest tells him to believe. While I hear what you say about being born into religion, there are many – including those born into religious families – who do make a personal choice to accept or adopt a particular belief system.
Jaundiced View – I believe you are arguing the Liberals turned their back on these things in government?
Why can’t they admit their mistakes and move on?
Oppositions love accountability, and when they become governments they forget about it. Howard, Bracks, you name it, they forget it.
What is needed is a government with some testicular (or the female equivilent) fortitude to introduce these reforms:
1. Speaker of the House to be an independent, or if this is not possible (no independents or independents refuse) speakers resigns from the party room (as in UK).
2. Fixed four year terms (this one is more about opposition testicular fortitude).
3. Ministers to be forced to address questions during question time
Turnbull is one of the few “players” in this arena I have met personally.
I have also had dealings with Goldman Sachs. Anyone who can succeed there knows how to work the numbers.
I suspect he was trying to win – but he made the gamble knowing the “loss” from losing was not so bad.
He got a pretty big promotion too, you’ll notice. Envirnoment -> Treasury.
Why not 5 year terms with a full senate election?
Wont happen because the majors would hate to lose Senate seats to the minor parties.
Horatio is a perfect name. Great illusion to the last man standing too. And his last line in Hamlet:
‘Even while men’s minds are wild: lest more mischance
On plots and errors happen.’
Watch out for Mal, Brendan!
Howard C: How do you force someone to answer a question, especially if the question is not asked in good faith and is merely a political trap?
mm, ferny grover, i think that 99.9% repeater of those who have faith that one god or another exists have had rather extensive conditioning…
re nelson: i agree with you – he believes what it suits him to believe.
The whole idea of having half Senate elections is to make it difficult for a popular PM to sweep all before him and control both houses. A full Senate election puts all your HOR and Senate eggs in one basket.
Ferny Grover:
If a question asks for a figure, then you should provide a figure. There have been numerous examples recently in Victorian Parliament where the government has been asked how much Public Hospital Boards have lost during the sub-prime crisis, and the answers generally have been “The board make their own decisions and are accountable”. That isn’t answering the question.
If you have a independent speaker, they should be able to rule the questions that are not asked in good faith out of order.
It’s a shame about George Colbran, Labor could have done with a
small businessman in the parliament! Oh well, at least he’s got his McDonalds franchise to go back to. Pity Mike Bailey who gave up a good job on the ABC for no reward.
Pancho 252 Ever since my lobotomy I have plenty airspace now, thank you very much. My headshape shows my brain capacity before the operation. I used to vote Labor then and still do.
Btw, I let in on another secret. My grey temples are fake. I dye them every day to give myself an aura of maturity which belies my age and good looks…
I am sure Mike Bailey will be looked after HH. Theyd be mad not 2.
Thanks for the link JB -much appreciated
I’m somewhat disappointed that they don’t have a list of MPs and whom they voted for -they did with the Beazley/Crean, Beazley/Latham and Beazley/Rudd leadership spills and they did with the Hewson/Downer leadership spills back in the mid-1990s. It’s interesting to see who voted for which candidate
There aint no such animal.
Brilliant picture of Julie Bishop here: http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/super-ministry-bagged/2007/11/30/1196392063221.html
One of the best politician photo’s I’ve ever seen. You can just imagine the evil laugh.
Paul K,
What about Richard Torbay in the NSW Parliament. He’s an independent…
At least you have Belinda HH.
Pigs ar*e he’s an independent Swing Lowe. He joined the ALP and resigned when they worked out it was better for him to be “independent”.
Agree with all 3 of those Howard. But these don’t give the Libs any reason to be.
I still want to know in 2 simple sentences – what do they stand for?
That motherhood statement from Victoria before doesn’t cut the mustard. Everyone says they stand for those things.
Belinda Neale is no consolation prize LOL More like the booby prize
Robertson will be the first seat Rudd loses in 2010
You mean there are no issues which he is passionate about? No issues where he has a strong opinion or even a bias on? He’s even handed on every single issue is he? How many of these people can you find in Parliament?
Tony Windsor should be speaker of Federal Parliament
Pancho 275
Julie is correct. Education is too important to play politics with. And let me just day that under my Govt, Uni fees will never go too far above 200k to 300k.
OK one last time as punishment for that comment Progressive/HH:
Belinda has lived in Woy Woy Bay with husband John for over 20 years. Together they have raised their two sons on the Central Coast.
Belinda has experience as a Gosford City Councilor and as a Senator. Her priorities have always been local jobs, roads, services and infrastructure. She has a practical working knowledge of government to offer the electorate of Robertson.
Belinda established and ran a small business in Erina. Belinda knows that viable local businesses and a strong economy mean more local jobs.
She was a Foundation Board member of Central Coast Mariners, and is deeply committed to the Umina United Soccer Club. Belinda has been involved in many local groups including the Community Tenancy Scheme, the Central Coast Women’s Health Centre and Child Abuse Prevention Services.
Belinda’s work and life experiences will provide fresh thinking for the Central Coast. She will be a strong local voice and a vital part of Kevin Rudd’s team.
Ferny – Have you read Sam Harris’ book about the role of moderate religion in extremism or the Dawkins one ? The whole ministry should read them.
It’s a bit warm here today. I feel like a refreshing glass of lemon, lime and Edward St John!
jaundiced view… they stand for making money and getting ahead… I thought that was pretty evident. Just reduce everything to dollars and that’s what they stand for. At least as far as I can tell after 11 years of Liberal rule… unless it was only Howard that was like that.
ESJ: You lifted that off the ALP website!
Rates analyst is incorrect in regard to Rudd.
He only made one challenge.
GEEZ ESJ -What sort of creature are you that you can inflict that excrescence on us yet again?
Pancho 275
Yes brilliant photo of Bishop. Did they airbrush out her cape and broomstick?
Jaundiced – OK, I’ll have a bash
The Liberals stand for the belief that nothing happens well in the country if the economy isn’t working. So let’s get that right first and foremost.
Then they believe that people should be allowed to live their lives without needless government intervention. They should be able to focus on their daily lives, and shouldn’t need to feel ashamed about being primarily focussed on backyard issues.
Now I’m sure you’ll criticise this for one reason or another, but I had a crack. What do the ALP stand for?
Ferny Grover aka Neilbris
My particular apologies, as I meant some ‘particular’ suburban solicitor! LOL
OK I’ll stop manic cackling now jaundiced view.
But can you guess who will get the lions share of the marginal seats spend in NSW in 2010?
Paul K,
There is no person in any parliament anywhere that would fit that description. If they did, they wouldn’t be a politician…
That’s easy Howard C
jobs,jobs,jobs
Having to decide whether your Liberal Party is ‘liberal’ or ‘conservative’ seems, by the elevation of the stature impaired Horatio “Super” Hornet, to have been settled in favour of the latter.
So we need to modify a quote:
“There go my men. I must follow them. For I am their leader.”
– Attributed to an Italian general
…to this:
“There goes a slim majority of my party. I must follow them. For I am their leader.”
- Horatio Hornet
Thanks for that Howrd – I’m not going to criticise it because you are the only one to have a go all day. I’ve written up 15 documents in my office waiting. As far as what the ALP stands for, I would be presumptuous to answer, seeing I’m not a member, but their principles have certainly changed a lot in recent decades too, since the light on the hill went out.
Everyone knows Brendan Nelson, the Simon Crean of the Liberal Party, is just there as a seat warmer for Malcolm Turnbull in about 12 months time.
The Libs will also try and block WhatChoices from being scrapped early next year, so Brendan Nelson will carry the baggage of this, yet WhatChoices will be scrapped anyway when the new senate comes in July.
Then when Malcolm Turnbull wins the leadership post he can say he wanted to support WhatChoices being scrapped so he can’t be blamed for Nelson’s stupidity.
Jaundiced – no worries. I thought it was better for them to answer it themselves before I had a bash. I have no idea exactly what the ALP stands for.
And because jaundiced made full disclosure – I am a paid member of the Liberal Party.
Howard C:
“The Liberals stand for the belief that nothing happens well in the country if the economy isn’t working. So let’s get that right first and foremost.”
Well Labor believe that too the last time I checked.
“Then they believe that people should be allowed to live their lives without needless government intervention. They should be able to focus on their daily lives, and shouldn’t need to feel ashamed about being primarily focussed on backyard issues.”
Backyard issues? Huh?
I assume you know that the Howard Government was the most regulatory government in Australian history right? What about government intervention in social issues? Are they against that too?
To be honest, I don’t think either party stands for much other than being in power… you just have to pick who you think will do the least damage.
I think Turnbull is in good position. He only just lost without appearing to give anything away, and was upfront about some of his beliefs. These set the boundaries for the future if he becomes the leader.
294 ESJ – having watched the whole excruciating episode of Belinda’s candidature here in Robertson, I doubt that a billion dollars and a carriage to Sydney for every commuter would be enough to save her skin next time.
Regarding Mr Kroger’s suggestions, in Queensland we already have a process where candidates are vetted and approved by State Division prior to being allowed to stand for preselection.
I would support branch amalgamations and a national constitution making the party a Federal party rather than a collection of State divisions.
I definitely support a merger with the Nationals. Three cornered contests and duplication of party admin is senseless. The results in Leichhardt and Flynn were bad and the division of scarce Coalition resources to fight three cornered contests unforgivable.
I think 12 months is a very aggressive timeframe for this project but now is the time to get started.
Interesting: the new member for Dawson, James Bidgood, is a financial director of a chain of medical centres. Probably the surprise new star of the Rudd win on November 24. Did anyone predict Deeanne Kelly would lose the seat?
JV @ 285 I’m no longer in the clergy (it was no fun having left-wing views in a far right denomination!). The law is far more honest. Yes I have read Dawkins but not Harris. I doubt that either would have an impact on too many of ‘the faithful’. Faith is basically a suspension of disbelief, a disconnection of the rational, and so such works are seen as wordly attacks on the bastion of their beliefs (and their God) and are ignored.
Corangamite’s gone back off the “close seats” list.
Sean Welsh… your preferred Liberal leader in Queensland?
Bring Back CL’s Blog:
I’m sure I read that Rudd was the almost laughable third candidate in one of the earlier leadershp contests.
He withdrew before the ballot but Rudd was definitely “in the ring” in at least one of the leadership ballots before the one he won.
I’m trying to find a reference but googling “Rudd” is not really helping right at the moment…..
PD: perhaps revealing the numbers for this particular vote may be seen as too risky given that everyone knows Nelson is on shaky ground already?
Perhaps we could have fun and play a guessing game: clearly what we now know is that WA Libs voted for Nelson and were given a deputy spot in return….
He was thinking about it but withdrew and Iron Mark won!
148 Had to do some work!!
I agree it would be a seismic shift for the Union movement to separate itself from the Labor movement. It seems to me though that the inevitable consequence of the lessening role of Unions, lessening membership, gradual sidelining by Labor etc all point to one inevitable conclusion.
Your survey response is appropriate for the short-medium term, but longer term a radical approach will be required to continue to be relevant.
Unions can build a strong narrative once they purge their worst elements and embark on a service-oriented approach rather coming at workplace issues skewed by the employer-employee relationship.
Bit like the Liberals really. What is their agenda now?
Brendan Nelson has just been renamed:
Brendan Seat Warmer Nelson, opposition seat warmer of the Liberal Party
Update on Flynn:
ALP now 636 ahead
Go Chris Trevor!
On the updated figures, Labor looks like it will hold Flynn but lose Swan.
It is now leading in the pre-polls and absentee ballots in Flynn but still trail on the postals. However, most postals have been counted, whilst there are about 5000 absentee ballots to go (and 3000 pre-polls).
However, in Swan, Labor is trailing in all three – pre-polls, postals and absentees. Looks like Wilkie will be the only Labor incumbent to lose their seat this election…
Ferny- I know I’ve had them at my door, in pairs, badly dressed – and their eyes glaze over when you attempt to discuss their unfortunate religious affliction. The zealots are one thing, but I just find it weird and unsettling for apparently smart people to have such a large blind spot – particularly amongst politicians in power.
Bring Back CL’s Blog:
Excatly – but it meant the next time there was a challenge everyone was talking about Rudd as a possible candidate.
Turnbull has achieved the same thing – only better. He’s also got a massive promotion. (well, compared to Opposition Spokesman for the Environment)
I didnt realise Robertson had gone off the close seats list too. Called for the ALP.
“Did anyone predict Deeanne Kelly would lose the seat?”
Yes
It’s a shame about Kim Wilkie – WA better swing back to Labor next time.
Oh, and Maxine has definitely got Bennelong. There’s 4300 votes left to be counted (including 780 provisionals) and she’s got a 2000+ vote lead. It’s over there…
Ruawake: did you have a bet on Dawson?
I’ve just been reading the bios of James Bidgood and Chris Trevor: not exactly the standard union hacks!
Swing Lowe
It aint over in Bennelong until Sportsbet pay me out!!
I can confirm that Ruawake was the only person in my seat prediction competition who picked Dawson as a labor gain !
NB,
On that logic, Lowe, Parramatta and Page aren’t over either, as I haven’t been paid out by Sportingbet on those electorates either…
84-64-2 looks like the final count.
I put a lazy 100 on Dawson after the 59-41 Newspoll in September. More guess than knowledge though. Odds were 7.25 to 1.
Nice one Ruawake … ahhh …. smells like … VICTORY
I think the easiest thing to predict all things being equal is a strong swing to the ALP in the next election.
Malcolm then replaces Half Nelson and goes on to win the election after that. That isn’t a prediction merely hopeful speculation
Swing Lowe… yes, Howard would need over 70% of the remaining votes to come close to winning the seat. Extremely unlikely. A fine bookend to a morally bankrupt government.
I have to say, it feels good knowing that that man is now completely irrelevant.
Can you buy me lunch Edward ? I’m hungry.
Sure, are you in Sydney dodger?
Libs 4 votes in front in Solomon now!
JV – Most people have blind spots. I cultivate several myself. Theirs happens to be religion. There is no point in using reason to try and disturb the irrational, so I’d save my breath on those who turn up at your door. As I say, religion is harmless, and can even contribute to humanity (look at the work of Mother Therese – and Tim Costello!). It’s the contribution made to society that matters, not what they say they believe.
Workchoices bad = Mackay swings to Labor. Thus my thoughts on Dawson.
330 BBCLB
Chances are that Malcolm will replace Nelson in this term, then have a two election strategy to try and unseat Rudd. For the Libs to have any chance though they’ll need to do some serious soul searching.
That said, Beazley gave Howard a run for his money first time out, but Beazley was always able to project an image of inherent decency an therefore trust which IMHO Turnbull may struggle to match.
It IS a shame about Wilkie in Swan…. I cannot believe it (even though I am a sandgroper) that WA populace can be sooooo uneducated to vote Liberal as a protest against the ALp state government. Apart from the mining boom, that is the only possible reason I can think of.
ESJ… are you sure?
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-307.htm
To me, it still looks like they’re 262 votes behind.
Unfortunately I’m in Adelaide Edward, however next time I’m in Sydney it’s a date. We can drink to the realignment of Australian politics to a better place.
JB take heart, there was a 2% swing to Labor in WA. Just good marginal campaigning by the tories if Wilkie goes.
ESJ was just tricking – a chaser type stunt.
only kidding about solomon
ALP in front by 260 according to the AEC…
JB -you are probably right about the possible reasons they haven’t revealed the voting list. It would nevertheless make for interesting reading
I think either the Age or the SMH said that Costello had voted for Nelson -which I am not surprised about given that Turnbull had been undermining Costello’s claim to succeed Howard at every chance he got. I would assume Costello’s supporters probably split their votes between the two candidates while the Right united behind Nelson
It’s always a disadvantage to one of the leadership contenders when the other leadership contender is also from your state -it means that you don’t have the voting bloc of the MPs from your state solidly behind you
The Senator is pleased with your work Edward. When we’re next in government you will get a parliamentary secretary position of your choice.
Dont you find its the Senators rages that are the hardest thing to cope with LTEP?
ESJ – but did you get onto the Admiral yesterday at 10/1? That was juicy – the decision to punt up was ably assisted by William Bowe’s assessment of the situation, I should also say. I might spend some of the winnings tonight in fact.
The Senator demands more Chaser-style stunts, particularly if they’re as successful as the Lindsay experiment.
No janudiced view didnt. Only at general elections, party room ballots way too unpredictable and more prone to treachery, dishonesty and doubledealing of the ” Sure I am going to vote for you” type.
Anyone like to elaborate on the below in today’s Crikey ? (Yes I’m a squatter. I’m waiting for ESJ to pay my subscription with his Dawson winnings)
“1. What Alexander Downer really thinks of Penny Wong”
I’m hoping this is something homophobic, it would simply make me hate the idiot son even more.
Crikeyers, what did Downer say about Wong?
I love it when people talk about me…it makes me feel all warm and fuzzy
Mean, diminished and out of touch: Why won’t Nelson say sorry?
Professor Lowitja O’Donoghue writes in Crikey:
I am saddened to hear that the new opposition leader, Brendan Nelson, will not say Sorry to Aboriginal people. But I am not surprised.
Brendan Nelson represents a party that is out of touch. They just don’t get it. He would do well to talk to former Liberal Prime Minister, Malcolm Fraser, to learn something about genuine liberal values.
Nelson’s are the mean-spirited responses of denial that diminish him as a person and diminish Australia as a nation. At the very historical moment when new, courageous collaboration is possible, this new Liberal leader, just like Howard before him, fuels the fires of division.
PD – the fact that the vote was fairly close reflects the state of the Libs at the moment. The party is not at all all guns blazing for reform (as Turnbull would have liked) nor is it totally pro-Right (what Nelson would have liked.)
Marise Payne and her ilk were more likely to vote Turnbull I’d say. Not sure if Costello has any supporters though
would you like me to post subscription details on bugmenot Sykes?
Given two senators were late, and Peter Lyndsay was not given a vote imagine if the vote had been held on Monday rather than yesterday.
There could’ve been a tied vote.
ESJ 2 Senators were overseas when the vote was taken, and could have voted for Malcolm making a 44-45 result possible, but i think Lord Nelson will be good. I say bring on the earring bring on the motorbike and bring back the Mo lol!
I’m worried about Dutton, he’s just 136 votes ahead with 92% counted, surely he will hold on?
A tip from some well connected friends in Canberra – Shergold has informed Rudd he won’t be looking to renew his contract in February and has asked to take Leave from as soon as possible until the end of his contract.
So that would be the second big APS scalp since the change of Government, with McIlwain being the first – he resigned last Wednesday.
LTEP how could Lindsay not be given a vote but Laming and Tollner were??? They were behind too??
I thought Shergold had said as much publicly.
The Senator made sure the right people voted perhaps Glen?
We all know who Tollner voted for and it wasn’t Mr. T.
Maybe the Liberal party could have a facebook election in future?
Howard C @ 37
then 39…..are you being your own devil’s advocate?
I like Chaser style stunts, especially the ones that break half a dozen AEC laws like the one Karen Chijoff and Jackie Kelly tried pulling off… real thigh slapping stuff those jokes!
So if after the votes are declared Tollner doesn’t get a spot… that could well change the votes. Also, a horde of senators will be gone on 1 July ‘08 which will change the dynamic all over again.
The joys of a close result…
Dickson could come down to the provisionals – but Dutton still looks favourite to hang on…
366 – It seems basically a case of Mal choosing when, not if, he wants it.
Pancho, if you were Malcolm and u wanted to be PM, why would you try now when chances are you’ll not get the chance, he’ll wait and bid his time.
The two things i disagree with Malcolm on are the Republic and Saying ’sorry’, and Nelson dislikes both of these so i like Lord Nelson better, though Malcolm could also do a good job for us.
I wonder if Laming and Tollner lose their seats do their votes count?
Yesterday you liked Malcolm better Glen. What’s with that? And the republic and sorry are your winners? Are you just falling into line with your branding, or what is your philosophical reasoning here? Also WHEN Mal takes the job from Brendan, will you like him better again?
heh hehh heh ESJ – now that would be entertaining..
Some of the Libs are not open books – I am still in two minds when guessing who all the Libs newbies voted for..That would be a dilemma even for a seasoned politician
Pancho, maybe its a case of I liked him before I disliked him.
Has anybody done an analysis of what the Senate would like like after a Double Dissolution election, assuming voting was the same as in this election?
I haven’t done it – would take me too long.
The smaller quotas in a DD would make it v interesting – I’m pretty sure the Greens would hold the balance of power.
Mother Theresa wasn’t the selfless saint she and her supporters claimed. If you can read Christopher Hitchens book ‘The Missionary Position: Mother Teresa in Theory and Practice’ In her case charity did begin at home, and pretty much ended there too.
Are you correct that Tollner and Lamming voted yesterday? If they lose their seats, aren’t these invalid votes?
No HH they would be “correct” votes in the Liberal party!
Mother Therese? I didn’t realise Ms Rein was someone who’d contributed so much to humanity.
I don’t think you can retrospectively change the result of a ballot ! You either get a vote or you don’t !
Did Howard send in a postal vote?
Sykesie you are being naive now!
That was after i heard about what Malcolm said on AM, he would have taken us too far to the left. I knew he was a wet but he is ’soaking’, he needs more time in the Tories to water down some of his political views.
Pancho i’ve always thought that we have no responsibility to accept blame for the stolen generation as much as what was done was wrong, and i’ve never supported a republic because are system as it is works wells why f it up that’s my view.
Malcolm Lost the leadership when he made that interview trashing Howie, we dont want to end up like Labor after 1996 when they disowned their past, we wont. That doesnt mean we wont change some of our views but there was a lot to like about Howie so much in fact Rudd copied him to win government.
Grey – yes, but it was invalid. It just had “NOT PETE” scrawled across it. And a smiley face.
Both sides Malcolm and Brendan allowed them to vote, even when they were behind according to the AEC, so i wonder if their votes are valid i suppose they are since they’re sitting members and have yet to be defeated but still maybe Laming voted for Turnbull and Tollner for Nelson and it wouldnt matter but maybe it would.
What hope do I have ESJ? I’m 32 years old after this week and naive. The shame.
But ESJ: should people who actually haven’t officially won their seats be allowed to vote in a leadership ballot? You can bet Tollner and Lamming voted for Nelson – Turnball might have reason to complain and ask for another ballot
Glen 369 thanks for your ongoing support. I know you are a true believer and believed in me from the beginning. You are a true friend and comrade who not only talks about solidarity but writes about it every day.
My Dad Des, was a marine chief steward who was active in the Seamen’s Union and my grandfather was a communist and co-founder of the Clerks Union. So in our family we always believed in solidarity forever.
Glen, true comrades are for life and are not disposable once you move up the grease pole and become Leader.
It’s not about your responsibility Glen. It is about the Australian government opening a dialogue with the most disadvantaged group of Australians.
Dr Nelson, shouldn’t you be spending less time blogging and more time getting used to life in opposition?
any predictions of final Labor vote… it is nearly down to 52.9%…. my guess is 52.8% final, for a swing of 5.5%
I think we can make up for those injustices in improving their healthcare and job opportunities than with saying ’sorry’ Pancho.
If you want someone to blame, blame the politicians of the day not those of today.
It’s not about blaming. It’s about maturity, respect, and what the disadvantaged group is seeking.
Or we could do both. Saying “sorry” won’t cost a cent more.
I’ll also blame the politicians opposing the apology, which currently includes the entire Liberal and National parties, perhaps with the exception of Malcolm Turnbull.
Also:
‘I knew he was a wet but he is ’soaking’, he needs more time in the Tories to water down some of his political views.’
won’t that make him wetter?
392 [I’ll also blame the politicians opposing the apology, which currently includes the entire Liberal and National parties, perhaps with the exception of Malcolm Turnbull.]
I’m sure that is the way it will pan out Showson. The tories are going to look very silly before, during and after this one.
Progressive 388 I just love being the Leader. I can tell all my underlings what to do and where to go and I can run the show from this blog. What better place to hang out than here where my only real comrades hang out: Glen, ESJ, LTEP, S Kaye, Nostilsdames, Tabitha, Isabella, De Nial etc…
The politicians of last week took away the CDEP jobs, put them onto welfare so that could be withheld – brilliant – if you’re a fascist.
Brendan was your win brought about by intelligent design ?
One can be naive on a question or one can be generally naive Syksie.
I can’t believe that the Liberals and Nationals will force a division on the issue of a National Apology to Indigenous Australians. They will just look mean and petty forcing the speaker to call for a vote.
Observer – I think that manuever had something to do with ‘minimal government’ and ‘cutting red tape’.
To Nelson’s credit, he opposed the teaching of intelligent design in science classes when Minister for Education.
To his dis-credit, he didn’t seem to mind if it was taught in other classes.
I believe that I am a product of intelligent design.
My design is so perfect that I would feel equally comfortable as a moderate Liberal as I would in the Labor Right.
has barbara bennett done the right thing and resigned, or is she waiting for a bludgeon to the shoulder?
Labor are going to abolish the workplace authority, so her job won’t exist.
I believe if I were to have a flaw, it would be my modesty and humility.
good point, showson.
Dear lord, I can’t believe Nelson is a monarchist.
I presume both the Labor Caucus and the Liberal parliamentary party made a decision on which candidates for doubtful seats would be invited to their respective meetings and allowed to vote. They would have done this in the knowledge that some of them might not in fact get elected. This must be provided for in the rules of both parties. This presumably means that the validity of the votes taken cannot be challenged retrospectively on these grounds.
And that you’re a bit of a perfectionist Brendan (and would never do a 730 report interview while drunk).
You mean ANOTHER 730 report interview while drunk.
Now the split in the Queensland Liberals is flowing onto Gridlock Campbell.
Will Brisbane’s “Can Do” Lord Mayor, Campbell Newman, be disadvantaged by the Queensland Liberals’ bitter infighting in his continuing hunt for Liberal candidates for next year’s council elections?
Battling Liberals State Leader Bruce Flegg conceded the week’s events had been embarrassing for the Queensland Liberals, “at every level” of the party.
Cr Newman – who is elected separately from the individual councillors – is trying to build a Liberal Party team to break the Labor majority stranglehold in Brisbane City Council.
While he holds the office of Lord Mayor, Cr Newman heads a minority council, with nine councillors to Labor’s 17.
In newspaper advertisements this morning, the Liberal Party of Queensland is advertising for candidates in the wards of Jamboree, Wynnum and Deagon.
All three wards are held by the Labor Party – by Felicity Farmer (Jamboree), Peter Cumming (Wynnum) and Victoria Newton (Deagon). If Cr Newman is to secure a majority in council, it’s vital that he wins these wards.
Dr Flegg conceded the week’s events were disappointing for Cr Newman.
“What’s happened this week isn’t good enough,” Dr Flegg said.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/lib-infighting-no-joy-for-newman/2007/11/30/1196037138701.html
Did any fans of The Office catch Brendan’s ‘my favourite actor…is Mr. Sidney Poitier’ moment in his interview last night?
“I have a portrait of Neville Bonner in my office”
Shouldnt you have one of Julia Gillard Pancho?
haha. I’d be happy with either ESJ. But I don’t like my chances of dislodging the Bonner one from Brendan ’symbolism is extraordinarily important’ Nelson.
I think Brendan Nelson probably has a portrait of himself in his office.
Skysie I reckon most of parliament has portraits of themselves in the office or home.
The difference is ESJ, the only thing on Brendan’s office wall is his own portrait. I can’t imagine Brendan having any other political hero except himself.
I thought that was HILARIOUS.
He should’ve just announced that he is Leader of the Opposition, and Shadow Minister for HUGE portraits of Neville Bonner.
Well – shortly I’m off to get the ferry to the Woy Woy pub to celebrate the visionary Belinda’s devastating victory in Robertson. In fact her first victory at anything, and sadly her last. She’ll no doubt be at the pub talking political philosophy with a group of labourers from the chicken farm over a schooner. I would like to congratulate her on her ministry too – can anyone remember which one Kevin was saving for her – the Ministry of rocket science, or the Ministry of public speaking? Which one was it again?
I know about Aborigines and I have done my bit for them, because you know, I Brendan Nelson have a portrait of Neville Bonner in my office twice the size of a standard door.
If that doesn’t show that I am fair dinkum true blue ocker in understanding Aboriginal issues then nothing ever will.
Let me just say this, what have Aborigenes ever done for us?
420
ShowsOn – i find it amusing you are attacking him for taking an interest and admiration of pioneers of Australian politics, if this is the best you’ve got on Nelson, why don’t you trot out some propaganda from ‘Nelson Facts’.
What exactly *are* provisional votes? I know the differences between absentee, pre-poll and postals, but not provisionals.
The funny thing about Brendans portrait is that it changes when his hairstyle changes. I think it might be a mirror. Did you notice he had it slicked down last night, some people in the partyroom made their support conditional on a hairdo makeover.
Any word on Carangamite or Solomon.
I’m sorry – I shouldn’t be sarcastic like that. It is good that the dead wood of Jim Lloyd had been left to rot. That’s the best one can say for Belinda – at least she’s probably marginally better than the other guy.
I assume Julie Bishop chose to be shadow IR minister – but why. This has to be the most politically stupid move on her behalf.
She probably sees herself taking on Julia Gillard but she is a dill if she thinks she can win.
Labor IR policy is in place, it just needs the legislation to be drafted. In 6-8 months the IR battle will be over.
So what does Bishop do – ditch IR and become education minister again?
What a perfect mess she has created for herself.
What are the chances that a different Lib will phone in sick every day until Christmas?
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/libs-reschedule-leadership-meeting/20071130-1dtx.html
Glen I remember looking after families who were losing their homes. I remember university graduates who were begging for voluntary work and couldn’t get it. I remember parents who went, employers to get their kids’ apprenticeships.
Glen I will always remember you, comrade.
jaundiced, Belinda was a member of the Shadow Ministry in her last brief stint… who knows… you could be looking at having another Minister as a local member some day.
Jaundiced, the ABC website has it in the too close too call category again.
Brendan
Did you get you university education thanks to Gough Whitlam?
Ruawake. It won’t matter. Horatio and the Bish will both be hosed out in 12 months as a job lot. Who will be Malcolm’s deputy??? They’d make it fun if they gave it to the Mad Monk – just to appease the Right.
I find it hilarious that you can’t see that he is rejecting one form of symbolism by replacing it with another form of symbolism.
Why don’t you figure out how to think for yourself?
430 LTEP – That fits, she’s certainly been a shadowy figure around here! But don’t get me wrong, I really would rather have her than him, and maybe she’s shine. I’ll be the first to say I underestimated her if so.
sorry “she’ll”, not “she’s”
Only 296 votes in Robertson
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-146.htm
LOL Jaundiced.
Whoa – what’s that ESJ – Is Robertson back in the basket? All that bile and she doesn’t even deserve it yet.
423 Comrade Glen, never forget that many Labor people of good will voted to get Neville Bonner elected – no wonder Nelson is a fan.
No, he got it thanks to Matthew Flinders. http://www.flinders.edu.au
jaundiced… I’d still say she has a very good chance given provisionals haven’t been counted yet. They favoured Labor in the last election and I’d find it hard to imagine they’d vary hugely from that.
They also have a signficant lot of absentee votes to count which, at the moment are favouring Neal.
I believe provisional votes are people who claim to be able to vote, but for whatever reason are not on the hard-copy lists that the AEC offices have.
Hence they are allowed to vote, but the vote is stored “provisionally” in an envelope until their status can be determined.
This could be things like Married names, incorrect spellings etc.
It also looks like 1 polling place hasn’t returned its votes yet… why would that be?
charlie, it’s when a name isn’t on the list or it’s already marked off when someone turns up to vote.
442 LTEP – I’ll tell the faithful that at the pub – got to go or I’ll miss the ferry.
Provisional votes are made if your name does not appear on the voters roll or if your name has already been marked as having already voted and you claim that you havn’t. The vote is placed inside an enveloped and you make a declaration as to your right to vote, the vote is counted if the electoral office accepts the validity of the declaration.
432 ruawake
My Uni education might have been free but it was only teaching Marxist-leninist-trotskist-socialist-communist propaganda.
As a consequence my medical degree is not worth the paper it is written on. Look at my most prominent medical malpractice – plastic surgery and lobotomy on Julie Bishop…
#448
You botched her eyes.
Brendan if you did as you say you did why did you make Julie look like your third wife?
I think i know…”But honey, it was dark i thought it was you” LOL
“intelligent design” folks believes life on earth was created around 10,000 years ago! Yes, you read me right: ten thousands years.
I miss Morgan Fridays
Their site did not crash today. 
Question (excuse me if it is bleedingly obvious): how does a booth official know you have not voted elsewhere in the same seat when you come to have your name crossed off?
Given that we do not have electronic voting lists that could keep track of voting, I could have easily gone and dropped 10 votes for the ALP with no one knowing… It is a bit pointless in my safe Labor seat, but Swan comes to mind…
Frank @ 451. Actually many Creationists believe the universe is only 6,000 years old
Dennis Hood, a Family First member of the South Australian Loser’s Lounge says that Earth was created 6,000 years ago.
448. yeah they’re a bit close together. nice colour though.
They don’t. That’s why they ask, if you say NO, but in fact have voted elsewhere, then you have just committed electoral fraud.
Is it true that Nelson’s wife is “born again” ? Or is this just gossip?
So…as the old saying goes….commit electoral fraud early and commit electoral fraud often!
Yes Ruawake, I believe Nelson’s current wife is a conservative evangelical Christian
I thought Nelson was a mick?
Brendan Nelson I have a question:
What made you finally decide on buying the $6 Billion Dollars on the worlds worst fighter jet the Super Hornetts, was it the flashy name or was it because they gave you a jet fighter model which I saw sitting on your desk??
Thanks
Could someone explain to an ignorant Mexican exactly what Belinda Neal has done to deserve all this slagging from Liberal stooges here and elsewhere? OK, she’s a former union official, she’s married to a NSW ALP heavy, and she failed to win Robertson in 1998. Are these crimes or what? She’s (probably) knocked off a ten-year sitting member and minister, in a seat whose demographics are moving away from Labor, so she can’t be a total turkey. Supporters of a party that thought endorsing Michael Towke for a safe seat was a good idea are hardly in a position to be critical.
Maybe Nelson has jumped the ecclesiastical fence?? We all know how committed he is to his beliefs!
regarding all this ’sorry’ business, am i incorrect in my belief that a ‘government’ is a continuing entity regardless of the comings and goings of the party’s in power… much like a corporation is the same entity regardless of chairperson, board, CEO’s etc.
I thought this was true, and that it was a continual representation of Australian society.
As such the Australian Government is able to say sorry for past errors, much in the same way a corporation can be held accountable for past actions.
Is the Libs argument that because it wasn’t “illegal” (according to the laws of the land, but ignoring basic human rights) and done with goood intentions, there is no responsibility to be taken?
But does anyone have a comment on the “continuity’ of governments?
LV, if they are such a terrible aircraft why do US aircraft carriers use them?
And the fine/penalty would be?
“Ferny Grover aka Neilbris Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 5:25 pm
Yes Ruawake, I believe Nelson’s current wife is a conservative evangelical Christian”
Please, don’t visit the sins…
But Bryce….visiting sins is what we all do for fun!
Psst… Glen… come closer… i dont want everyone to hear this… we dont own any aircraft carriers.
Adam – If you are there
Assertions have been made from time to time on this site that x number of votes remain to be counted. Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t the number unknown All you can do is base the number roughly on what happened last time and have a guess. e.g. if last time a seat had 100,000 electors and 5,000 didn’t vote, i.e. 5% you could expect roughly the same number not to vote this time (% wise) and by deducting the number of votes already counted (including informal) from the expected votes to be cast you can arrive at roughly the number of votes that remain to be counted.
Re: middle man on the continuity of governments: my belief is that ’sorry’ should be said on behalf of the state. It was the state who committed horrific crimes of genocide (no less) towards Indigenous people, and it is the state that should say sorry.
I know some may shirk at the use of term ‘genocide’,but it is pretty straightforward to me. Indigenous kids were taken away from their families in a belief that they should be ‘bred out’. That, by all international definitions, is as much a genocide as is deliberately targeting an ethnic group in the way Nazis targeted Jews.
Not to mention that non-Indigenous Australians continue to benefit from these crimes decades later….
The eyes are my greatest achievement. They glow in the dark and they can pierce curtains!
No confusion here he he…her eyes glow in the dark…he he
Like the name suggests I was Super Horn…at the time..busy with Glow in the Dark…
NJB, that’s correct. No-one knows how many votes have been cast until they are all counted. All you can do is look at the enrolment and the turnout % from last time and make an educated guess.
Brendan on saying sorry -
“Our generation will look back with a sense of shame in some of those outcomes, but we don’t own them,” he said.
So post-colonial Australia doesn’t own the ‘outcomes’ of disposession.
It owns the land bit,
just not the disposession bit.
Nice.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/sorry-issue-splits-libs/2007/11/30/1196037125789.html
For example, the AEC website tells us that 92.45% of the votes have been counted in Dickson. That means 92.45% of the enrolled voters, not 92.45% of the votes that were actually cast. In 2004 the turnout in Dickson was 95.1%, so we can calculate that actually about 97% of the vote has been counted there.
Thanks Adam. Hope this helps others out there. If I get time I’ll prepare a table showing an estimate of the remaining votes in the doubtfuls.
I say to you today, my friends, that in spite of the difficulties and frustrations of the moment, I still have a dream. It is a dream deeply rooted in the Australian dream.
A dream that one day Aboriginal and Anglo kids would sit together in the Outback watching an Aurora Australis. This awe inspiring spectacular display of a green glow across the Souther Sky which brings together the wonderment of kids kids and adults alike.
And in this dream, kids of former trade union bosses and employers, of farmers and of Greenies, look across the horizon and realise that the green glow is emanating from a Nucler Power Plant.
They all erupt in spontaneous applause and cheers and finally find peace and harmony in the knowledge that our future energy needs are secured.
And then I wake and realise the green glow comes from Julie Bishop’s eyes…
Brendan Nelson for PM!
The creationists didn’t go away, they evolved.
Geepee asked if anyone had attempted to transpose the 2007 Senate figures on to a hypothetical DD election. Mine’s no better than a back of the envelope effort, but I came up with:
Labor 33 (6 NSW, Victoria, 5 Queensland, WA, Tassie, 4 SA, 1 in each Territory)
Coalition 34 (6 Queensland, WA, 5 all other States, 1 in each Territory)
Greens 7 (2 Tassie, 1 each other State)
Xenophon 2 (SA)
There are a series of ifs about how this might look in say eighteen months time. How will the Libs/Nats manage in Opposition, will they maintain (or improve) their vote?
Will Xenophon’s star fade when he’s forced to clarify his position on contentious issues?
How successful will the Greens be in managing their not quite balance of power (assuming that they’ll be one vote short of that status)?
Was Labor’s vote last Saturday a high water mark, or can they raise it further?
Adam, re Belinda Neal (I’m sure there’s no “e” on the end of the family name): I think the animus is largely about her enjoying a dream run due to her partner’s influence. Iirc, she was able to win pre-selection for Robertson and subsequently lose the seat in a contest (2001, 2004?) with a quite popular local contender, thanks to Sussex Street intervention. I stress that I’m calling this from 1000 kilometres distance, so I don’t pretend to first-hand knowledge.
Adam, you’ll be mad at me for writing this, but I’d prefer Labor wins Herbert and Bowman, and loses Robertson. Even if she falls over the line, Belinda will only be a one termer. Being married to a Sussex St headkicker and N.S.W Govt Education Minister sure helps when one is trying to get preselection.
Dr Nelson, it’s such an honour that you’re posting on our board!
From Crikey, re A. Downer on the subject of Senator Penny Wong:
A rumour has been doing the rounds since election weekend that Alexander Downer made some disparaging comments about Labor Senator Penny Wong into an open mike when he was waiting for his Insiders interview last Sunday……..
Crikey understands that as Senator Penny Wong was being interviewed, Downer was yelling obscenities. As Downer was being miked up, he kept reacting to Wong’s comments.
Nothing was put down on tape, but Crikey understands that at one point Downer yelled, in reference to the newly appointed Minister for Climate Change and Water, “Shut up you foul mouthed b-tch.”
We assume that was a strictly off the record comment.
Even Nicole Cornes would have been a better MP than Belinda, and that’s saying something LOL
*rolls her eyes trying to work out which are worse fundamentalist creationists or fundamentalist not-creationists*
So, what’s the betting on the undecided seats?
Adam, what do you think?
I still want someone to explain what exactly is so bad about Belinda Neal. Do I gather that Progressive objects to her solely because she is married to John Della Bosca? What a progressive view to take! I believe married women have been legally separate from their husbands for about 150 years now.
412 – “Can do” trys to portray himself as apolitical. When he was asked about the liberal split the other day, he didn’t want a bar of it. He was also on about how much he is looking forward to working with Swanny and the Ruddster.
He is also busy portraying himself a greenie with his “I love brisbane” campaign. Kind of funny for a man who as his first act of office ripped up a bus lane.
The final straw is to look at his personal website –
http://www.campbellnewman.com.au/donations.html
If you want to donate money, you need to give it to “Forward Brisbane Leadership”, not the Liberal Party.
Ha Kevin Rudd is considering a DD election what a noob, when Howard got in and the Senate blocked just about everything he wanted to do and he didn’t call a DD and yet Rudd has the nerve to say we should pass everything they want HA.
Bring it on Ruddy boy we’ll see you thrown out like the PC PM of Canada who lasted a few months in office.
Middle Man if they are good enough for the US to use on aircraft carriers then they are good enough as a stop gap to ensure the defence of this country.
Glen Says:
Because there currently isn’t an alternative. Carrier based aircraft have unique design requirements. They also have different mission requirements. Their principle role is close defence of the fleet which is much different to what we need.
Had we needed a stop gap, and we don’t, the Koreas are currently building a version of the F-15 which would have been a much, much better choice than either the F/A-18 Fs, or the Eurofighter. They are nearing the end of production so would probably have quoted a very good price to keep the plant going.
You might also want to consider the true state of our alliance with America, Glen. Not only won’t they supply us with the best available aircraft for our needs, the F-22, but they won’t even sell us the F-35 version the USAF/USN/USMC are getting. We have to make do with the crippled stealth export version that they’ll sell to just about anyone. So much for JWH’s special relationship, huh?
And, BTW, Glen, don’t bother quoting the FTA as proof of our good standing. The US saw us coming with that one. They definitely got the better of that ‘bargain’!
Herbert: Liberals 60 votes ahead
Dickson: Liberals 100 votes ahead
488 Gridlock Campbell probably expects that himself and his minority Liberal mates will be dumped by the voters on March 14 and wants to make sure the donations are secure for his retirement.
Very funny though PICH.
Glen,
Problem with the Super Hornet is that all 24 of them could be blown to smithereens – UNSEEN – by just two Russian Sukhoi Su-30MKs. Many of our regional neighbours – including China, Malaysia, India and INDONESIA – are armed with the Sukhoi.
Our old F-111s are superior to the Super Hornet in terms of distance achievable and maximum payload.
The US armed forces are able to maximise the flexibility of the Super Hornet by launching them from vessels which they were designed to operate from, namely AIRCRAFT CARRIERS. Last time I checked, Australia had a total of zero aircraft carriers.
At some point in the near future, Nelson will have to explain to the taxpayer why $6,000,000,000 was wasted on aircraft which would be nothing more than target practice for a Sukhoi pilot.
Regards
Dutton ahead by 116 votes (93.58%)
Should hang on from here Pauda should still be the Member for Dickson.
489 [Middle Man if they are good enough for the US to use on aircraft carriers then they are good enough as a stop gap to ensure the defence of this country.]
The blind leading the blind is not a good basis for policy Glen. As a person once said, they could both fall into a ditch.
Yeah steve lets buy Russian aircraft instead that’s a wonderful option and who will be flying these SU-30s the Indons or Chinese i think our airforce pilots are far better trained and with the long range missiles we’re adding on them they’ll be right as range.
Glen: Dutton will be spending a lot of time in Dickson for the next 3 years, assuming he’s won.
And your man Jim Lloyd is coming home with a wet sail in Robertson
Labor have got to do something about their postal vote organisation next time.
They’ve been slaughtered this week in that area, and have probably lost 3 or 4 seats they should have held on to.
498 It has always been that way because of the staff and resources available to whoever is in government. Boot will be on other foot next time around
Personally, I don’t care what happens with these remaining close seats. The desired result was obtained last Saturday. Libs out. Howard out. Rudd in. Beautiful.
These marginals can be picked up next time, particularly if Nelson wants to tempt fate and go to a DD on IR.
Smirk is going to be on Lateline tonight with Trigger to discuss the betrayal.
$$483 – This is my take on Alex and Ms. Wong:
1. He is a bad loser as he just lost the election.
2. Something Penny Wong said during her interview.
3. He can tell that she is good, very very good.
4. She is a woman.
5. She is gay.
6. She is Asian and an Asian Labor woman at that.
7. All of the above.
Methinks is (7) with a large dose of (6). Good riddance, Alex.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
Peter Lindsay can not win Herbert… we will miss out on our V8 super car race YET AGAIN!!!!!!
FFS, how are the postal votes being stacked so in favour of the Libs??
I’m thinking it’s to do with Peter Lindsays scam before the election where he sent out party political flyers with Postal Vote Applications attached, is this legal?!
George Colbran should have promised free food at his Maccas restaurants if you voted Labor.
Labor Voter: if Lindsay is reelected, you’ll get nothing for 3 years. Why would Rudd bother to spend money to help out a Liberal?
Ive just worked out what Julie Bishop reminds me of:
The Hypnotoad from Futurama!
For those yet to experience the glory of the Hypnotoad:
http://r33b.net/
ChristianW – so Hypnotoad (Bishop) in the Libs and Professor Farnsworth (Truss) in the Nats – it should be great!
#97 Bendan Nelson wrote:
A post from Bushfire Bill addressing this topic specifically is worth reading:
When is the last day for counting? When will we get to know the “final score”?
What does the rules say?
woops – replace #97 with #79
Maxine still 1100 ahead with 92.24% counted.
Correction: Maxine 2136 votes ahead.
Given everyone assumes Bennelong would have been an ALP seat were it not for Howard, I wonder what a good estimation of the real margin (i.e no Howard PM as a candidate) would be. 8%?
PUBLIC APOLOGY TO ALL POLLBLUDGERS
Yesterday on a previous thread I told off Steven Kaye in no uncertain terms. I normally ignore his posts as they are never worth the cyberspace they are written on. However, since many pollbluders were commenting on his posts, I decided to start reading them. I found his nonsense about Julia Gillard and K Rudd to be unfounded and very offensive. I responded by descending to his level in the gutter. To some it may seem puerile (but I don’t care as I don’t believe in turning the other cheek) but to many others it would be offensive as it brings down this wonderful open discussion forum.
Unfortunately some other very good blogs (such as Palmer’s Oz blog) have shut down because of such behaviour. I would hate for this to happen to the Pollbludger, and worse to think that I may have contributed to such an eventuality.For this I truly and unreservedly apologise, especially to you William. I don’t want to make your task any harder in running such a great blog.
In future, I will ignore the trolls’ posts and keep any colourful responses to myself.
However there is no way that I retract my comments to Steven Kaye. They stand. I will never make such comments again, no matter how much I feel provoked.
They can also outrun a Su-30, and for a tiny fraction of the $6b the F-111Cs could have been re equipped with the significantly higher thrust GE F110 engines from the F-14 to not only give even greater performance but also a significant reduction in IR signature. It may even be possible to fit F-22/35 engines to reduce parts inventory.
The $6b would have gone a long way towards also refitted them with state of the art with avionics and weapons suites, again possibly from the F-22/35 series. There may have even been some loose change. The end result the most formidable regional bomb truck short of the B-1.
#511 – oops mea culpa, shouldn’t try counting after a long friday
In my electorate of Parramatta, I received what I initially thought was some kind of official letter from the Australian government, which on closer inspection turned out to be a postal vote application form, with a Liberal HTV enclosed. It seems to me a bit dodgy that political parties (any of them, not just the Libs) should be involved with postal vote applications. Let the AEC do whatever needs to be done.
We will no doubt see some adjustments to electoral laws by 2010. The Liberal strategy is of course to try to keep Labour-leaning demographics off the rolls, by making it more difficult for 18-year olds to enrol. There is also work by the AEC in between elections to keep the rolls in order by house to house enrolment checks-I guess the regulations here could also be skewed to favour one side or the other, depending on how this work was done. I don’t know how many votes these subtle changes in electoral laws are worth, but it will certainly be helping rather than hindering Labor next time around. The joys of incumbency!
A brilliant result for Labor in Victoria… with all the speculation that they wouldn’t win any seats it looks like they’ll pick up 2 and have come close in a further 2.
Interesting that Corangamite and Deakin were won with pretty mediocre candidates, IMO, but a strong candidate in LaTrobe didn’t quite make it. Makes you wonder just how important star candidates are or aren’t. Maybe the candidate matters in rural/regional electorates, but doesn’t in the city?
Glen @ 490 why don’t you dig up the senate rejecting govt bill numbers from early in the Wasted Years (opps I mean the Howard years). Then compare them to Economic Reform Years (Hawke-Keating) and then track to the Rudd years.
Rudd needs to talk about the DD risk now, to be sure if the Senate do do something stupid and contrary to the mandate of the Government (I think Howard established the bar for Mandate it is whatever the Govt of the day wants regardless of what they said before the election) the blame can be laid at the feet of the weak opposition leader Nelson who is beholden to the extreme mad right wing of a party that remains out of touch with the Australian electorate.
That was fun Glen I hope you enjoy it as much as I enjoyed writing it.
Adam – various – being just back briefly and scanning the last couple of hours’ posts – look, I understand your attitude as a party member, but really, think of it this way – is Belinda your idea of a dynamic, intelligent and vibrant candidate likely to change a person’s vote? You know the answer.
If it makes you feel any better, because of the comments you refer to, all of Steven Kaye’s posts are now moderated.
Howard threatened double dissolutions all the time. They all do it, although the minor parties themselves have little to fear, it’s really the majors.
Opposition Leader in Vic and Judith Troeth on Stateline slagging off at Costello and Kroger
501 Gary Bruce, exactly, why are we fretting about marginals (unless you have money riding on the results like me). If the libs do win a few more of these, it just gives our side a bit of sport next election, low hanging fruit so to speak. And I really hope the Libs are stupid enough to try to exert their born-to-rule mentality by blocking in the Senate. The we can really wipe them out ROTFL.
They reckon that Costello and Kroger have been trying to get Cossie into the Lodge and are not don’t have the same ideals as Menzies.
For what it’s worth and by using the method I outlined in my post #471 I have calculated the estimated outstanding votes to be counted in the doubtfuls as follows.
Swan. Margin (-269) Outstanding votes 1800
Solomon Margin (+262) Outstanding votes 3000
Corangemite (+1168) 8500
Robertson (+296) 6750
Flynn (+636) 8000. Using 5% as no shows (this is a new seat)
Herbert (-60) 3500
Dickson (-106) 1400
Bowman (+116) 4900
McEwen (-396) 12200
LaTrobe (-582) 6300
Troeth can’t talk, she was the one who couldn’t get back from a junket in China quick enough to make the leadership vote.
Evening everyone
Very supprised that Dr Nelson is saying workchoices needs to stay , Mr Rudd won the election , I voted for workchoices to go , if the Libs had won the election well I would have put up with it , but they didn’t , how dare they . I am afraid its a party lost and arrogant in opposition, they seem intent on pressing the self destruction button. Workchoices is bad law .
Peter
The libs, have yet to have the fact they lost, dawn on them.
ruawake
born to rule types never have anything dawn on them
i think the libs will take a few electoral defeats to come back to reality
looking forward to cossies dummy spit on latelinel
News.com.au has previewed a bit of it here:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22849996-2,00.html
Summary: “I could’ve been a contenda; I coulda, shoulda, woulda won!”
Thanks 530 and 531
Its very disappointing , as I had said in previous posts , our family was directly affected by work choices . My wife lost her sunday / saturday and thursday night penalty rates , ands the increase in the rate was 50 cents per week . The employer concerned bullied the other employees to vote for this agreement, and got their way , my wife voted against .
I am afraid Dr Nelson and his party don’t get it
Townsville wants it’s V8 supercars
I’m sick of waiting, and I doubt Rudd is going to pay for it if Peter Lindsay wins.
I hope there is a recount here in Herbert, recounts usually end up in a swing to the left side of politics.
Parramatta Moderate,
My take on your comparisons of Corangamite, Deakin and Latrobe:
In LaTrobe, the Liberal Member was a newbie in 2004, and Labor had a pretty strong candidate. Wood (LaTrobe) probably held up, relatively-speaking, this time because of the so-called sophomore surge. Barresi (Deakin) suffered because of a particularly strong YRAW campaign, and his being saddled with association – iirc he chaired a back-benchers’ committee on IR. Deakin had a bigger anti-Labor swing in 2004, so that provided scope for a reverse this time. In fact compared to 2001 (that is taking the two elections into account), the swings in Deakin (3.7%) and LaTrobe (3.6%) are virtually identical. In the case of Corangamite (two election swing, 6.7%), demographic change is surely a key factor, with the population growth occurring in areas less sympathetic to the Liberals.
The only Labor candidate of the three I’ve encountered is Mike Symon, and for a union thug, he seems remarkably mild-mannered and engaging, so I think his deficiencies as a candidate have been exaggerated.
I also agree with Adam’s view, and the one you seem to be expressing rhetorically, that individual candidates unless they are truly awful or very good (and that becomes exposed because of media focus), don’t matter much – especially in suburban electorates.
Mike Symon and Darren Cheeseman must have campaigned damn well to bump off 2 well established sitting members – they can’t be complete duds.
Costello on LL:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/30/2106766.htm
Won’t serve full term.
“I said I will serve them, I’ll play a constructive role; eventually I’ll move into the corporate sector,” he said.
lol
LaborVoter: Rudd won’t be spending any money on you residents of Herbert if Linsday wins again. Dawson and Leichardt will be getting the goodies.
Adam said
“I believe married women have been legally separate from their husbands for about 150 years now.”
Adam you are quite wrong, it is only about 30 years
“Back in 1976 the ‘Festival of Light’ organisation had this to say about proposed laws against rape in marriage. It was ludicrous, said the Festival:
… that husbands who have intercourse with their wives without permission are as guilty of rape as the teenage lout who waylays a young girl crossing the park … A husband who is consistently and unreasonably refused intercourse by a vindictive wife could be pushed into ignoring his wife through fear of reprisal and seek adulterous relationships instead … The proposed law on rape within marriage threatens the whole concept of the special marriage relationship. (Light magazine, Nov. 1976, 6)
A year later, Fred Nile was still describing anti-rape-in-marriage provisions as ‘weird’ and ‘anti-marriage’. (News Weekly, 16 Nov. 1977)”
I well remember the furore over the laws, in those days, not long ago a wife was considered the “property” of the husband to do with as he liked.
I’ll pay this observation respect, it truly sums up what’s wrong with the ‘white armband’ brigade:
475
JFC Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 5:45 pm
Brendan on saying sorry -
“Our generation will look back with a sense of shame in some of those outcomes, but we don’t own them,” he said.
So post-colonial Australia doesn’t own the ‘outcomes’ of disposession.
It owns the land bit,
just not the disposession bit.
Nice.
494
Fagin
Nice summary, short and perfectly to the point.
Horatio Hornet has some serious questions to answer.
About 6 billion of them, actually.
Peter & Progressive-clearly you are closer to events in Melbourne than I am up here. I saw Cheeseman interviewed a couple of times and just didn’t find him nearly as impressive as I did Cocks, while Symons has attracted quite a few negative comments in various forums. But they’ve got the last laugh, they’re off to Canberra! Thanks for your comments.
Interesting remark about the “Sophomore surge”. In my own electorate of Parramatta, Julie Owens (whom I’ve had the pleasure of meeting and who I regard highly) achieved an 8-9% swing on her first attempt at re-election, a great result for her. The swing in the upmarket parts of the electorate like Carlingford and Kings Langley was something like 3-6%, fairly moderate, but working class areas like Seven Hills swung 10-13%. Workchoices looks like it has completely erased Liberal support in the blue collar workforce around here, and you’d think it might be quite a while before they win any of those people back.
514
Vote1Maxine
I know how you feel. I decided a long time ago to just skip right over the trolls, and you know, once you start, it’s kind of fun.
Pretend it’s hopscotch, and you have to leap over the ugly little trolls so you don’t get yucky stuff on your shoes.
Try it, it’s sooooooooo much healthier!
Peter from Bonner
Thank you for your “perceptions” of Workchoices.
These vile laws have hurt so many people – yet Bishop thinks they are good policy.
She is toast.
Turnbull and (I hate to say it) Pyne will be the team after the great “cleansing”.
With Corangamite now definitely Labor, I’m counting 80 definite seats for Labor, with Solomon, Flynn and Robertson also very likely. Maxine will definitely be declared to have won Bennelong from Rodent. Labor looks to be in control in Bowman, with the Libs ahead by the skinniest of margins in Herbert and Dickson.
Someone asked when counting stops. The last day for postals to come in is Fri 7 Dec. After that, preferences for all HoR seats must be formally distributed, before winners can be officially declared. The poll should be declared sometime before Christmas, and so Parliament won’t sit until next March.
Jaundiced View,
I also live in robertson, yer most of the postals have been counted and everything else is favouring us so we have a strong chance. The postals were always going to hammer us, if u live in the former electorate of gosford, the candidate in 2003, 2007, deborah O’Niell, differiernt person than belinda wold have won in 03 had it not being the postals. The postals favour the libs because of the retriement population in robertson
OK, so if it’s only provisionals and absentees to come, and they favour Labor, maybe we shouldn’t write off the ALP’s chances in Herbert and Dickson?
Lord D, I too am fairly confident about Solomon, Flynn and Bowman ending up as Labor gains. Robertson I don’t know about.
Lord D, the parliament will definately sit in February next year at the latest.
Someone mentioned that Smirk and Trigger are on Lateline tonight. Excuse my ignorance, but who is Trigger? Do you think it would be worth staying up to watch? I want to see some pain and anguish on the faces of Liberals, and of course some bitchy, back-stabbing nastiness.
Trigger – Virginia Trioli.
Evening, Bludgers!
I spent the day talking to and being talked to by a bunch of Australian political activists of all different stripes, but particularly of the online persuasion. The woman who ran the online campaign for Kevin07 said (and it didn’t seem that she was dissembling) that the Liberals wholly outspent the ALP on advertising during the campaign. I thought it had been reported fairly widely that the ALP had been stuffing its coffers with donations (from the evil union bosses, commies, etc.) for quite some time before the election, and was cashed up beyond any dreams of the Libs.
So…what happened? Did the Libs pump the big end of town one final time? Or did the ALP hold back on their spend?
Thanks Progressive. I was reading today that Trigger is leaving Lateline shortly which I think will be a plus as I find her style extremely polarising. I may be wrong.
Marko
Agree, didn’t seem to see much of labor advertising,maybe “softly softly catchee monkee?”
Arbie Jay -
Possibly. Possibly they’re saving it for 2010. I do know that this person begged for a bigger online ad spend, but no dice. Which explains why the Libs dominated online after the media blackout…
So when does Ruddster get his pic on William’s title background?
This needs to be done William.
$$552 – La Trioli – Like Greenday would say, it’s good riddance.
$$552 – La Trioli is not leaving Lateline. She is leaving her morning radio show on ABC702. In fact, She will be doing more Lateline. There you are, your wishes are coming true.
Marko
I thought there were a lot of areas they could have hit them hard, but then it could have come out them looking negative.
On the bright side they won, and even better we are getting rain and heaps of it, the Hawkie effect or the apology?
Arbie Jay -
I’d say it’s probably a bit of both. We need that much rain.
Is Costello an “indian giver’ ?
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/menzies-bust-ripped-off/2007/11/30/1196394622755.html
If both parties promise the same thing(V8 supercars) but Peter Lindsay wins the seat, doesn’t this mean by default Townsville should get the V8 supercars because it was promised by Rudd?
#551 marko
I also wonder about the relative costs of the 2 parties ad campaigns.
It seemed to me, in my rural electorate, that the Libs etc outspent Labor by a huge amount, particularly in the latter stages. By about a factor of 10.
Was it the same in the cities?
543
.
Kirribilli Removals : Thanks for yor comments. I normally do, except yesterday I made a mistake and read some which got my blood up. Anyway I’m back to using the scroll button
Check out the rainfall in the week since KR became PM elect
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/rainmaps.cgi?page=map&variable=totals&period=week&area=aus
#564
That will teach the West!
521
jaundiced view Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 7:26 pm
Adam – various – being just back briefly and scanning the last couple of hours’ posts – look, I understand your attitude as a party member, but really, think of it this way – is Belinda your idea of a dynamic, intelligent and vibrant candidate likely to change a person’s vote? You know the answer.
No, I DON’T know the answer. If I knew the answer, I wouldn’t have asked the question. I know nothing about Belinda Neal except that she is married to John Della Bosca and that she has, at the second attempt, knocked off a Howard government minister in a difficult seat with a 7% swing. So obviously she DID change a lot of people’s votes – about 6,500 of them. NOW I WANT SOMEONE TO TELL ME WHAT IS SO AWFUL ABOUT HER.
Geez, I hope the V8 supercars come to London…….
Is the place big enough for a “straight’?
The ALP have actively sought out and placed in operational positions, highly qualified, educated people to fill seats. Fresh faces with life & work experience outside the party etc etc (eg. McKew, Garrett,etc).
Meanwhile, in the Senate who do the libs really have that can pack any intellectual policy punch or weight, that are a match for the Penny Wongs of the ALP? No-one! Jeannie Ferris has passed on, Kay Paterson has moved on…
Who did the the Libs just put up for Senate pre-selection at a time when Senate seats are precious? Party aparatchiks with little if any broad-based policy experience or even deep and broad understanding of the various dimensions of key issues. All that they speak are cliches.
Why not promote people like Ross Fox? Very well educated and well-versed in public policy issues which matter. They need to find and encourage more people like him rather than unintellectual dogmatic ding dongs.
By my calculations, if the remainder of the total possible vote breaks the way it has done so far in Robertson, plus a very modest estimation of the provisional votes is allowed Belinda Neal should probably win the seat by 13 votes.
In Solomon, Tollner by 138 votes (49.87/50.13)
In Bowman, Jason Young by 131 votes (50.08/49.92)
In Herbert, Peter Lindsay by 346 votes (49.80/50.20)
So my prediction stands at probably around 82-83 seats for the ALP. There’ll be plenty of low margin seats for either side to capture in the next election and it’ll be very interesting to see whether the Libs will be able to retain their ultra-marginals without the use of pork-barrelling.
Adam, there’s nothing particularly special about Belinda Neal apart from any other backbench candidate except for one thing. She’s had one short stint in parliament as a Senator and was regarded as having not done very much with her time there and, furthermore, just not being a very pleasant person.
And there is only a shower or two being forcast here this weekend and early this morning.
Adam, I live in Dobell, one seat north, and have met her several times. In my opinion she is an airhead, over-painted, strong perfume, gushy and vacuous, something like Ms Cornes but without the charm.
cheers,
Alan H
The fact that a craphole like Darwin with a smaller population gets the V8 supercars but we don’t bothers me immensely.
Another good reason for a North Queensland referrendum for independence, imho
#564 countrykid
Maybe Country Labor can run with “rainfall will always be higher under a Labor Govt.” as a slogan in the next election!
Ross Fox who shamelessly claimed that he lived in the electorate of Isaacs and then packed up and left his Mentone address a few days after the election? That Ross Fox?
The LNP can pretend all it likes that these events occured a long time ago, but the truth is that they stole land the High Court and Hawke/Keating governments returned to its traditional owners as part of the Mabo decision.
OK now I have something specific about Belinda Neale. Thanks.
What is a V8 supercar? Is is like the one Lady Penelope had in Thunderbirds?
Historic Election Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 8:49 pm
Jaundiced View,
You ask what the Liberal party stand for:
simply ‘individual choice’ (it gets quoted in every Liberal MP’s view of LCP values
What ‘individual choice’ means is the supremacy of the individual over Government
in how they live & how they earn income WITHIN a ‘market economy subject to law
This is the core value of Liberalism.
If you do not understand this core Liberal value , you can not debate it adequately
Work choices is COMPLETELY CONSISTENT with the above Liberal core value
A CONSEQUENCE of the Liberal’s ‘individual choice’ values is that everyone is on their own to fend for themself , negotiate for themself & persue personal wealth.
The questions of equity or ‘a fair go’ or compassion or indeed ‘unionism’
therefore ARE COMPLETELY INCONSISTENT with this core Liberal value
and are therefore opposed by Liberals and their Liberal Party.
Which is why I support the Labor Party
Adam @566 – OK , simple -she has been around for so long- state, federal, never stands out -no personality. She may well be lovely in private, but she is not a candidate’s bootlace. You know this, I know this, and the electorate also knows this. Conclusion: She is hack without any spark at all. How am I wrong? By the way I hope she wins for the big picture.
Alan @ 572
Are you sure that wasn’t Helen Coonan
Adam,
As I understand your theory about candidates they have only a marginal impact on the overall swing.
To take the Central Coast of NSW as an example the swings (according to Antony’s site)
Charlton 4.7%
Dobell 8.8%
Greenway 11.4%
Robertson 6.9%
In the case in point Dobell would be the most direct comparitor to Robertson. Clearly there is a 1.9% difference on swing. It would seem on this comparison of four seats people clearly dislike Louise Markus and the people of Newcastle were relatively underwhelmed by the installation of their new Lordship in Greg Combet.
It suggests to me candidates do count. Another good example is Lindsay and Dutton hanging on against the swing in QLD. Or Beazley in Swan in 1996 for that matter.
Um Edward, Combet had a 7% swing to him on primaries and didn’t have to go to preferences. I don’t think you can infer that people were underwhelmed by him.
LTEP, according to the ABC it is a 4.7% 2PP swing in Charlton.
My point LTEP is that the general swing is the primary determinant and then the performance of the individual candidate impacts on the actual outcome by what can be up to 5% in some cases.
It was 5.6% on primaries according to Antony’s site LTEP
I have always said that candidates DO count in regional seats. I said they don’t count (much) in suburban seats. Dobell and Robertson as fringe-urban seats are not quite one thing or the other, but I doubt candidate factors mattered much. Both Ticehurst and Lloyd had some incumbency advantage but were basically logs. I don’t know anything about either Craig Thomson or Belinda Neal. Combet may have got a lower vote because he was seen as having “parachuted” into the seat.
I take the point ESJ, but Beazley didn’t contest Swan in 1996 – he jumped to Brand and narrowly won, subjecting those of us remaining to Don Randall for a term.
Some candidates count, even in the suburbs.
Or perhaps people are saying Newhouse and Cornes will be pre-selected next time?
Yes, but remember Hoare was one of the few people to receive a swing to her in the ‘04 election.
You’re arguing that him receiving 53.61% of the primary vote means people were underwhelmed by him? I mean he even managed to steal some of the Greens vote… which is a feat in itself.
I think you’re letting your distaste of the person cloud your judgment here.
Yes I agree that candidates do count when there is intense media focus on a particular seat, but that doesn’t happen often.
Nelson said: ‘Can I also say that saying sorry to Aborigines is wrong. Why should we be held responsible for the sins of our forefather which had only the best intentions? The same way as we should not boast or brag about our forefathers who fought so bravely in Gallipolli. It has nothing do with us and we should not be constantly reminded about their deeds’
It sounds odd coming from a Defence minister who forsook his pacifist/medical roots to wrap himself in the flag, and THAT poster of Simpson & Donkey.
But Nelson is right.
Prof Manderson explained it all beautifully in Quadrant (the Manne years) some time back.
We express shame when our relatives err; and pride when they do well. We shouldn’t apologise on their behalf, nor claim their credit.
By extension, white Australia needs shame, not easy apologies. And it can have pride in its Bradmans, not revel in them.
Any apology by the State should be couched in the language of shame, remorse.
LTEP (589). Many Labor candidates had swings towards them in 04. It was a real incumbency election. From memory, all the ALP MPs in Qld – seen as a wipeout state – had swings too them, except Sciacca, who shifted seats.
ESJ, i’m not sure about the ABC election site… maybe it’s not up to date.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-110.htm
That’ll show a 7% swing on the primaries to Combet, which hardly indicates people being underwhelmed.
LTEP,
I said relatively underwhelmed about Combet. The point being that :
a) The general swing is the key factor
b) The safeness of the seat (ie inherent party vote)
AND
c) Personal attributes of candidate
determine a swing.Clearly in Charlton (without a credible independent against you) it is nearly impossible to lose to a Liberal as the Labor candidate.
He even took some first preference votes from the Greens.
525
Basil Fawlty Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 7:39 pm
501 Gary Bruce, exactly, why are we fretting about marginals
Because incumbancy is worth approx 1% plus office staff to build your existing margin plus postal vote advantage = a seat that may decide the 2010 election
(as the swing needed for the liberals in 2010 is 2PP 2.50% to 2.75%)
How it looks now
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007maps/national2007.GIF
It seems that old guy with the bushy eye brows, who used to be prim minister, you know Jeff Howard wants to be remembered as the best Liberal P.M. of all time:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22850998-1702,00.html
Seeing as he had none himself it’s no surprise he want someone elses:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22849711-12377,00.html
AEC website shows a 7.82% swing on primaries in NSW generally so:
Robertson underperformed the swing
Charlton underperformed the swing
Greenway exceeded the swing
Dobell exceeded the swing
Why is it that after losing an election the Liberals start lecturing everyone who will listen on liberalism?
“”We should look at the fact that the 20th century and the first part of the 21st century has been more than a century of Liberalism as the dominant and the successful ideology in bringing a better quality of life to people in Australia,” Mr [Greg] Hunt said.”
Why is it that members of the Liberal party fail to understand that all popular parties currently represented in the federal parliament believe in liberalism? And that the major division in contemporary Australian politics is between social liberalism in the Labor party, and neo-classical liberalism in the Liberal party.
Why is it that Liberals think they are proponents of the only valid version of liberalism?
I don’t know if this has come up yet. The swing against the Liberals was in more working class and rural seats. Turnbull does not represent these types of people and as such was not a good choice for leader.
“Chuck Eyes” is on LL….aaaahhhhhh
CHUCKY
Don’t stop there Edward.
Grayndler also underperformed the swing.
Kingsford Smith underperformed the swing.
Newcastle underperformed the swing.
Blaxland underperformed the swing.
Sydney underperformed the swing.
The things in common for these seats? They’re all safe Labor seats already. I can understand your putting Robertson in there but it’s not particularly helpful looking at Charlton unless you compare it to the swings in other safe-Labor seats.
535, 536 & 542.
I can’t speak for other seats, but in Corangamite I can vouch for the amount of time and effort put in by the community based YR@W campaign.
Unlike the other YR@W campaigns in Victoria, Corangamite ran as a totally voluntary grass roots campaign from early 2006 until the last few months before the election.
Thats right, us local ‘union thugs’ – ie teachers, nurses, aged care and council workers, as well as ‘blue collar’ workers – pensioners, stay at home mums and students, ran the campaign for over 12 months, leafleting shopping centres every weekend, holding public meetings, etc.
Eventually the ACTU was convinced that the seat could possibly be won, and funded a campaign co-ordinator. Just as well, because this was essential to shifting the campaign up a couple of gears once the election was called.
IF Corangamite gets across the line – and its not definite yet – it will be the YR@W campaign that made the difference. YR@W letter dropped 5 leaflets over the 6 weeks of the campaign. That had to be worth at least 0.5%, surely.
On election day I worked a small country booth – approx 400 votes. I had voters walk past the ALP and ask the bloke in the orange t-shirt for the YR@W how-to-vote.
Lindsay Tanner got it right on Lateline last night. Serfchoices had as great a polarising effect on voters across the board as any matter since Federation.
I have never met Cheeseman, but I’m sure that the local community will benefit from having a young gov’t MP, rather than a 70+ opposition member.
Hopefully ‘The Cheese’ will remember what it was that got him across the line. Put simply what made the difference was one small part of the most significant independent action by the trade union movement since the anti-conscription campaigns of WW1.
Those of us who had the opportunity to be part of making the difference expect that the Rud gov’t will deliver real workplace rights for current and future generations. ‘Serfchoices lite’ won’t cut the mustard.
Old Tom, you are absolutely right. There is no explanation for the massive swings in low-income booths across Melbourne other than an anti-WC backlash, resulting from the excellent work of YRAW. Deakin is the prize example. A middle-class seat tossing out an established and hardworking Liberal member in favour of an ETU official!
Stephen… the question is whether you think Dr Nelson will connect with these people… and why these people were driven away to begin with. I’m not particularly convinced either Nelson or Bishop will really connect but time will tell.
608
I agree but I think Nelson is a better chance than Turnbull. How can the working class relate to somebody with that much money.
And just for you, “I eat my words”.
Adam @ 607
It could also be the interest rates and rental prices.
told you so
Stephen 610. Hardly anyone rents in the kind of suburbs I am talking about. Yes interest rates certainly played a part. But the issue voters in these areas spontaneously raised on the doorstep when candidates came knocking was WorkChoices.
#606
I think you’ve got that right, Old Tom. In my only fleeting travel through Corangamite just before the election, the only posters of any kind I saw were YR@W and Family First.
Latest I heard was that was again off the ‘in doubt’ list. If that is so, congratulations on a brilliant grassroots campaign.
ALP only ran on a fresh face……..hahahahahahaha
ESJ: You’re really having a go at Greg Combet! Yes, I guess it doesn’t matter to you that Mr Combet stood up and fought for the likes of Bernie Banton.
Last update I saw on Corrangamite: Darren Cheeseman is more than 1000 votes ahead, and yes, the AEC has taken the seat out of the doubtful list, so a confirmed Labor gain.
rudd may have won the election but he lost the policy argument
i am the only one with substance
anyone could have beaten howard – even beazley
my budget is not to blame
What a week!
I thought it couldn’t get any better after seeing Howard off, but then today the big news – Daryl Somers quits!
May we never have to see another mean-spirited policy from Howard or a drum solo from Darly Somers!
no one told me about apec meeting – i am only nr 2
tell us about your lack of testicular fortitude, Pete
Adam @ 612
Have a look at the ABS figures for Melbourne in regards to rentals. It is much higher than other areas. Much much higher. It is around 33% from real estate agents and over 50% for all rentals. If you look at the figures for other places this is very high.
609. on the face of it, you would think Nelson would be better. However, Nelson is backed by former Howard supporters. And is now beholden to maintaining the same policy line. This will only ensure the Libs delay any rebuilding. This is the wet v dry fight that was always going to ensue. Turnbull could have won over decent Aussie’s with a show of compassion and renewel. This wont come from Nelson while he is backed by Abbott and Minchin.
More jobs and HIGHER wages under WC…..tell that to the retail/hospitality workers.
Or to the Queensland miners. There’s a reason that the Coalition got whumped in the North…
Adam 622 Sorry I checked my gonads just now and couldn’t find them…
I am the BEST treasurer in the world
The Gimp was stiffed by The Rodent for 12 years…..real smart guy.
never ever are the hardest words
Marko @ 626
It is called the agriculture industry who now has to compete with a high AU$.
What a knob
my party trick – amazingly fake laughter
Middle Man @ 624
It was the usual dry supporters who changed vote, a wet is not going to bring them back.
631 – Steven
Agriculture is always a narrow numbers game, particularly when you’re playing the game internationally. Australia isn’t responsible for the fact that America’s wrecked its own economy, and thus, its currency is collapsing. The current “Greenspan Put” which should bring interest rates over there down to around 3%, will finish off the US dollar.
Fortunately, the AUD is moderately priced against the Euro, which looks to be the up-and-coming reserve currency…
Two knobs happy together.
Stephen. so you think the party’s hope rests on continuing with Howard-like policies? wouldn’t that suggest a level of denial within the party about why they were voted out?
Farmers are business people, if they want to make money, they need to take risks.
Running a business doesn’t automatically entitle you to massive profits, you’ve got to risk some money to make some money.
Progressive,
I think the real hero on James Hardie was Bob Carr.
LTEP,
You are right I may have overegged the pudding with a Charlton comparison. Probably Robertson and Dobell makes the point better.
What’s the deal?
No one is watching and Virginia decides to do some research and put together a coherent set of questions for once?
dare I say it – it was almost a good interview – it revealed more than the interviewee would have liked?
Or did the Gimp just let his guard down?
I get the feeling he was hoping someone would beg him to come back, but the phone stayed silent….
According to Andrew Landeryou, Turnbull is unhappy with the leadership result.
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2007/11/party-room-carnage-turnbull.html
Diddums Malcolm!
Wow – Peter Costello’s performance on Lateline was seriously weird – it has to be seen to be believed
He appeared to be totally out of it – I suspect a mix of alcohol and prescription drugs.
Zero tolerance needed and a visit from Mr Kennett’s Beyond Blue too.
GG
You will go blind reading Landeryou!
Do you think the election of ETU guy and CPSU guy alters the factional balance in the Victorian ALP?
637
Yea and no. Look at the people who suffered as a result of the mining boom and you will see why Howard lost. Education (no), health (no), unions (no), manufacturing + agriculture + high rent (yes).
Howard lost because he was Howard, people didn’t want to listen people were tired of listening, we didn’t change leaders and we got punished.
ShowsOn @ 628
When a business goes down the employees loose their jobs. It is not the businesses who changd their vote but the employees in them.
Good to see you are back Glen.
Did you know a companion book to the World at War is out this Christmas?
Queensland Nationals have their chop at the spoils of opposition. No sign of renewal or cutting out the deadwood here.
The Queensland Nationals have endorsed former minister Warren Truss to lead the federal party and renegade senator Barnaby Joyce to head the party in the Senate.
Mr Truss is expected to be elected unanimously at a party room meeting on Monday, taking over from Mark Vaile.
But despite the endorsement of Senator Joyce, which came out of the party’s state management committee in Brisbane today, he is unlikely to gain the position currently held by fellow Queensland Senator Ron Boswell.
It is understood Northern Territory Country Liberal Party Senator Nigel Scullion has the numbers to take over the Senate leadership from Senator Boswell.
Nationals state director Michael O’Dwyer said the meeting had endorsed Mr Truss and Senator Joyce.
The future of the coalition also had been discussed, Mr O’Dwyer said, with the meeting calling on Mr Truss to negotiate a fresh deal with Liberal leader Brendan Nelson, following the election loss at the weekend.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/qld-nationals-endorse-truss-joyce/2007/11/30/1196394612693.html
#646
I hope the Libs think like you because if they do they might get back in sometime after 2050
Glen @ 646,
Don’t forget Work Choices. The electorate didn’t.
Stephen. I have always said that there is no simple reason for why he was voted out. I think after 11 years he had pissed of 2% of the population over about 30 different issues… some people still hated him for the GST. but there was everything from, indigenous isues, Hicks, GST, Tampa, interest rate rises, climate change, work choices, not lower the petrol excise… etc etc. the list is long and provided stacks of enemies. I firmly believe that had Labor found a decent leader in 2004, they would have won then (Latham was a nutter and proof that the people generally get it right!). There was so much baggage, that people were merely waiting for Labor to get its act together.
There is a similar theme and modus operandi in Howards legacy… and i think the Libs are mad to continue to repesent that.
646 Glen great analysis of Bennelong but the continent is a bit larger and more complex than that.
That was just a fear campaign, and really the only thing that differed between our policies that we each took to campaign 07. We couldn’t sell ourselves like Rudd could not with a 68 year old.
650
red wombat – we’ll be back but probably 2 terms more likely 3 but we’ll get back.
ESJ – is that for the DVD series, i’ve got the whole series is the companion any good?
ESJ @ 644,
I love them all.
#
646
Glen Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 11:21 pm
Howard lost because he was Howard, people didn’t want to listen people were tired of listening, we didn’t change leaders and we got punished.
you are suggesting Captain Smirk would have won
he was LESS popular than Howard
Liberals are still in self denial…work choices lost the election as it was anti fair go
i meant he pissed off a different 2% of the population for each of his long list of unpopular decisions.these all added up to defeat.
More liberal infighting.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22851003-5005361,00.html
Denial is a wonderful thing. Keep it up boys.
654 [That was just a fear campaign, and really the only thing that differed between our policies that we each took to campaign 07. We couldn’t sell ourselves like Rudd could not with a 68 year old.]
You really sold the nuclear power plant on Bribie Island well Glen. I’m sure Brough will send a thank you note for support throughout the election.
653
steve – ever heard of ‘occam’s razor’???
“All other things being equal, the simplest solution is the correct”, well the simplest explanation for our loss was Howard, who clearly showed his age during the campaign and Rudd was new and young and we couldn’t sell our policies with the leadership we had unfortunately…whereas Rudd sold our policies with his face and won.
Glen, yes for the DVD series, havent seen it yet but how could a true afficianado pass on it?
i think that kind of defeat faces any party that stays in power for any long stretches and who doesn’t renew. its not confined to the Liberal party.
Glen,
Are you trying to deny that Work Choices was not the reason that the Libs and Howard got done over?
Please tell me that mainstream Liberals are convinced of this truism.
660
steve – that wasn’t our policy, last time i checked Howard didn’t say he’d build a nuclear power station there??
Who knows how Deputy Dawg would have gone i don’t but we know we lost with Howie.
653 Howard wasn’t that much younger in 2004 Glen, it was his evil policies that angered voters not his age.
Julie Bishop & the WA Liberals are strongly pro work choices and THEY delivered the decisive votes to Nelson
Whilst Lord 1/2 Nelson is in self denial over work choices , he has to support it anyway to hold his leadership
guarantees Malcolm the leadership in 2 years
#642
Thanks for that, Greeny. LOL re legal challenge on eligibility! Maybe he can form a ticket with Robb!
That is true ESJ, plus they’ll be war when Parliament resumes why not get into the swing of things…
GG all im saying is WC and Iraq were the only real differences between the Parties and what they were essentially offering at the election.
Sure WorkChoices was a loser for the Liberals, but you guys are kidding yourselves if you think we have just entered a Labor nirvana. It will take a lot of discipline for KR not to overreach in his first term, going bolshie would be a great way for Liberal to get back in – I dont think he (KR) is that silly.
666
steve – Latham lost that election more than Howard won it really IMHO, the humble truism of politics oppositions dont win power, governments lose power.
Ron Brown i think Abbotts 10-20 votes helped Lord Nelson too.
Glen. you need to read more Labor policy if thats what you believe. there was plenty of difference. but in a stable democracy such as ours the differences aren’t as easily labelled as the old left/right, rich/poor etc. the differences are there and they are stark.
Hello Glen , climate change & Hospitals & education
Please continue to believe there was no difference in policys
GG @ 642 – I read Landeryou’s story as well, and I wouldn’t be surprised that Turnbull is unhappy if ‘dead men’ in the party room were voting for Nelson. Can’t see him doing anything about it, though; it would completely destroy any chance he has of eventually becoming leader.
But it’s interesting, if a bit scary, that it was the race issue that seems to have become Nelson’s knockout blow vs Turnbull, esp given the backroom deal with the WA branch, which is kinda like the Rhodesian Association transplanted as far as I can see.
Can I hazard a prediction? I don’t think the Libs will get back into power until they sort out their stance towards Indigenous people, and invading the NT (which Downer’s now admitting was done for electoral advantage) certainly wasn’t the way to do it.
Ron Brown
“Climate change” – signing Kyoto BIG DEAL. You can believe Labor is different when they start enforcing a 20% reduction by 2020.
If they seriously start on that then sure congratulations are due but that will cause real pain to the government. For instance try selling that in Flynn when people start losing jobs in the coal industry as a result.
669 [GG all im saying is WC and Iraq were the only real differences between the Parties and what they were essentially offering at the election.]
Education, Hospital funding, water plan, general Infrastructure planning, mental Health funding, super clinics in regional areas etc. Admit it Glen you never even read the Labor policy for the election and have no idea what labor’s policy is in most significant policy areas do you?
and right on cue! Ron Brown. thanks. and there was saying sorry, and promoting Aust as an Asian financial hub. (something i research at work, and which was scoffed at by the Libs during the campaign. we read their reaction at work and in turn scoffed at them!!!)
Rudd backed our climate change position on post-Kyoto, education we were both offering rebates and more money for technical education oh and hospitals Rudd didn’t have a policy on hospitals.
Im saying there is hardly much difference between the policies of the Tories and Labor at the election bar WC and Iraq IMHO.
Steve even we had a policy on GP afterhours clinics virtually the same thing as ’super clinics’, Rudd didn’t have a water policy other than to fix leaky pipes we had a 10b plan, and we both had money for mental health.
and most of WorkChoices will be kept by Labor in any event Glen.
That’s very true too, so all we’ve really changed is the salesman, we won the battle of ideas but we couldn’t sell it to the public and we got pumped.
ONLY 4 days after the election , Malcolm (YOUR SHADOW TREASURER) repudiates the Howard government on transition , wants to abolish work choices , wants to sign Kyoto & support climate change , wants to say ’sorry’ , wants to improve hospitals
ie. malcolm accepts there were LABOR POLICYS that were different from the Liberals and which the voters liked
THE PROBLEM is Malcolm told the truth and how could Liberal vote for Malcolm
as they would be AGREEING as ex cabinet ministers their Cabinet views were wrong
The problem for Malcolm is not that his comments were true but that his comments guaranteed he’d lose alot of decisive leadership votes
Glen @ 578 You can say that Labor was backing various Liberal initiatives, but actually there were very significant differences. On technical education, for example, the stand-alone tech colleges JWH started in 2004 had already proved to be a disaster. Even in the Mercury, which is not exactly a pro-Labor paper, was running prominent human interest stories about students who’d been left in the lurch through the colleges’ lack of contact with potential employers, and those stories were running right through the election campaign. I reckon you should just admit that the Libs had reached a point where when they saw a problem, they just threw money at it. In that case, it didn’t work, so they promised to throw more money at it. This is not good government.
If it makes you feel better Jenny you go right on believing that. Rudd will be the continuator of Howardism not its undertaker. If Oskar Mk2 had been leader maybe it would have been different.
Cover your eyes Glen, this is for everyone else to compare your words against.
http://alp.org.au/policy/index.php
ESJ and Glen. You guys are behaving just like the party itself. People vote not only for whats in front of them but also for what they believe the overall direction and tone of a party is. (i’ve deliberately not used the word philosophy cause its just not about that anymore)
and after 11 years they no longer liked the direction and tone of the Libs. The majority of voters know minimal policy detail. they work on a more instinctive basis, such as when we assess people in day to day life. they decided that Labor we offering a direction and tone that they liked.
my argument is not at all scientific and not policy detail heavy… but neither is the way people choose who they vote for.
Middle man at 677 -
Did the Libs really scoff as Australia being an Asian financial hub? I remember when JWH and PC ’safely guided’ us through the Asian financial crisis, they were very keen then on Sydney taking Hong Kong’s mantle as the premier financial centre in Asia. Nothing came of it, of course.
I’m not making a statement about the incoming government. All I’m saying is that the ancien regime was getting lazy and making policy with both its brain and its understanding of the country disengaged.
So its the “vibe” is it middle man? Some agenda for government.
Oh and Labor for ’show’ backed our NT Intervention which they will rollback now.
I think its better to have dedicated technical colleges IMHO, rather than at school. That’s not to say we shouldn’t have those options open at some schools but i think our policy was superior but thats just me.
682
Ron Brown – KR hasn’t said he’ll destroy workchoices he’s keeping a fair bit of it actually.
See its the semantics that separate the parties atm, saying ’sorry’ ha, hack it Rudd went conservative to win and if Turnbull had won he’d be more liberal than Rudd is.
And dont forget Glen, KR has already said he will say sorry but no compensation. So who is the bigger hypocrite KR or JWH>?
Glen can you please re read what you wrote @ 646 and @ 669. Schitzoid comes to mind.
When you consider why there was a 6% swing against the Government it is never one factor but a combination of factors that create “The Vibe”. Some issues like Climate change are important but don’t necessarily change votes. However, I humbly submit that the following narrative might explain how the Libs were done over.
1. Work Choices broke the link between Howard and his Battlers.
2. The change to Rudd reinforced that Labor was a party thinking about the future.
3. The Libs were coming back between March and June but were stopped in their track by the interest rate rise.
4. The huge advertising spend by the Libs in government almost turned the election around for them in the end.
These are all evident from the analyses by Possum over the last year. Point 4 is evident from the number of close seats that won’t be determined till the next election in three years.
Chris in LDN @ 687 – yes, they did. Howard repeatedly caricatured it in terms of arranging for someone in Asia to buy real estate in South America. He just didn’t get it.
YOU WON THE BATTLE OF IDEAS?????? oh that is riiiiiiiiiich!!!! you;ve got to be joking. how about an idea of not circulating racists pamphlets? how about an idea that doesn’t see workers stripped of their rights? how about an idea that places the economy in its rightful place which is as the servant of society, not vice versa? won the battle of ideas??? mate you’ve got NFI.
EDUCATION
Howard’s education policy was the 1950 ’s view …the three R ’s
Rudd was 21st century …a laptop for every student year 9-12
as this is how eduction will be taught & applied in 21st century
(not only in law & medicine but in the ‘Arts’ and in ‘technical’)
plus Schools having 100mbts internet not Howard’s 6
CLIMATE CHANGE for the young Australians
Howard …nil
Rudd as a start ,
every school (Public & Private) to have solar panels & water tanks
Yes , there was no policy differences
I think Possum was wrong in his analysis GG,
1) No loss of doctors wives seats
2) No interest rate / vote link
I think from memory our furry statistician predicted 55.5% 2PP and what is it 52.9 at the moment? I think Possum and AC Nielsen can go to the same corner as a result of 2007
Well really middleman I dont see how a fair minded observer could see other than the Liberals did win the battle of ideas.
ESJ your in ‘the thick of it’ tonight. I must say you are passionate or you got too much time on your hands. No loyalty should go unrewarded for the conservative cause.
I put it to you that you should seriously consider that you put yourself forward to the Liberal party as a candidate in a marginal seat. I may not agree with your politics but I think you are knowledgeable and perhaps have the competence to stand for your political cause instead of endless blogging around here. So whats it going to be? state or federal?
Of cause you will need a lot of media schooling so you don’t put you ‘foot in your mouth’ & embarrass yourself & the Libs as you are very opinionated. OK
So there it is. I put myself up for ridicule from my fellow laborites but I hope I have planted a seed & that your life may have a sense of direction than being a blogging historian that you claim to be.
I agree with you about WCs and about Rudd being the future and being the major differences but that’s about it really and even Rudd will keep a fair chunck of WCs.
Rudd did it very well agreed and supported our initiatives that were popular, NT intervention, budget, 10b Water Plan, fiscal conservatism and disagree with our negatives which compounded these negatives especially WCs.
Oh and it didnt hurt the ALP to have the Unions spending 50m dollars worth of ads and campaigns to unseat our previous government.
Jenny @ 693, I suppose we’re better off sticking to digging things out of the ground. Better off sending IT jobs to India and China too, and becoming waiters.
Who needs investment in jobs for the future, eh?
EJS
Possum is infallible…clearly there was a late swing which Labor polling picked up
Glen @ 690 Australia already has dedicated technical colleges. It’s called the TAFE system, and the Howard government starved it of funds throughout its term before it suddenly rediscovered technical education and decided to throw money at the problem – but not to TAFE, where students might encounter these nasty unionist teachers. Give us a break!
ESJ. please switch on your comprehension… i was commenting that despite all of the policy detail both sides produce the voter makes a choice based on direction and tone. I didnt say that that was all Labor were offering. learn to read mate.
Thank you for the kind sentiments AG01 but I dont think I am the sort of personality any party (especially the Liberals ) would want.
Hah – the electorate seems to have decided who won the battle of ideas….
ESJ could be parachuted into a safe Liberal seat – Bennelong (oh no, that’s gone) – Higgins, perhaps?
Jenny, TAFE does all sorts of things its a bevy of skills, but technical colleges are for technical skills specifically and i think its a good idea. Maybe you should ask your State Premier why he hasnt funded TAFEs aswell when you trash the tories.
BTW AG01 I agree about the time thing, I am off the air permanently from midnight tomorrow night.
#
697
Edward StJohn Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 11:56 pm
Well really middleman I dont see how a fair minded observer could see other than the Liberals did win the battle of ideas.
Agree ….on work choices , climate change , nuclear reactors , new Broadband ,
laptops for all kids , sign Kyoto , water tanks in all schools , Libs “local” management of hospitals etc
Glen one other thing the Tories have never explained is why have they underfunded Hospitals, Tafe and Roads and the ABC throughout the 12 years of their warming the Treasury benches? Too busy producing inflation and interest rate rises were they?
Glen, the ‘T’ in TAFE stands for Technical…..
ESJ. classic debating tactic for claiming the position of the righteous. “how any fair minded observer”… there is no such thing, and i doubt anyone as interested in politics as you are would be able to identify a fair minded observer. i doubt any of us here could ever sufficiently block our prejudices.
I’d hardly all Auslink and Auslink II underfunded roads Steve and ask your Labor Premier why he hasn’t funded hospitals and tafe before you blame it all on the Feds.
ESJ. Never a truer word spoken. LOL
!!
Conclusion
Clearly the Liberal blogers think voters think the 2 Partys policys were the same and the LCP should not change any policys.
Hope the Liberal Party agrees with you
Guess what , the voters will vote the same way in 2010 as 2007
We’ll see Ron.
ESJ. Are you ‘hanging up your spurs’ from tomorrow midnight…what do you mean?
Chris in LDN @ 700 – I think that was the idea. Howard really, seriously didn’t get it. Keating said something interesting on The World Today a couple of days ago (in among his usual self-justifying bull***t), which was that he was brought up in a world where all the dynamism came from the US and Europe, which felt very remote from Australia, but now Australia finds itself in the thick of things. There are so many signs of a sea change in terms of Australian relations with the region, but Howard just caricatured it.
Oh, and I’m on Pollbludger late because my spouse, who’s in IT, is giving a training course in Shanghai …
#654 Glen said:
Glen – are you kicking off a scare campaign?
Essentially I agree with the Latham hypothesis that organised politics in this country is broken.
Unfortunately because of his own bitterness that thoughtful message has been lost on peoplee.
If Rudd succeeds in rebuilding trust and institutions, more power to him. I think real change can only come out of community organisations and groups who avoid government which is essentially the preserve of a small elite in both parties.
I think there is a presumption that I am a Liberal because most of my comments have been about the ALP but that has only been because the ALP was in front and won government. In my view the ALP is marginally more institutionalised than the Liberals because of the union link but only marginally.
Chris in LDN. Yes the Libs thought the idea of selling our mature and highly skilled investment and financial services into asia as some weird joke. what fools. but lets face it, those industries have been built on deregulation and compulsory superannuation (which teh libs fought against) both of which are Labor reforms.
Not blogging here after midnight AG01. In Glen’s terms Radio Berlin goes off the air and its only the werewolves after that.
Jenny. agreed. at a recent IFSA conference an english bloke spoke for an hour on the UK market, and at the end said “I was asked to tell you about lessons Aust can learn from the UK. But really I’m here hoping to learn from the Australian market”. we are a long way ahead. some asian pension funds are still only investing in bonds… and some have equities but only a 5% allocation. we have much we can teach them.
ESJ. OOOOOOOoooooooooookkkkkkkkkkkaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyy not sure where its out but I’ll go with it!
ESJ,
Whatever happened to that job at the Australian?
ESj (680) You seem determined to hang on to the myth that Rudd will retain most of workchoices. But I suppose you conservative types have got to cling on to something don’t you, after such an electoral thrashing.
The things that come out.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/ministers-sent-report-on-habib-abuse/2007/11/30/1196394625496.html
Later comrades – this princess has to go to sleep – back tomorrow tonight for my swan song (no pun intended).
Well ESJ I’m sad to hear it for will shall miss your wit, good humour and ability to go after both sides of politics.
Hopefully we shall you back in future.
712 Glen, I thought it called the Commonwealth state health care funding agreement because the money comes from our taxes we pay to the commonwealth.
http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/PARLMENT/hansArt.nsf/V3Key/LA19990526021
As for Road funding it used to be funded 50/50 until the Tories came to power and now the Commonwealth struggles to fund roads at 40%.
It was the commonwealth that cut funding to TAFE and you know it because I have told you before.
Disability funding was also paid out at a lower rate than the states have put money in, so the change of government last week is welcomed by most voters in Australia.
ESJ,
Are you Caroline Overington?
Glen @ 719 – I agree, though probably from a different perspective politically. What I’d say is that democratic politics is seriously broken. We can console ourselves with the change of government at the federal level, but both parties are in trouble at the lower levels, which is where they used to gather their talent. For example, local government, which used to be a great recruiting ground for both parties, was comprehensively stuffed by Kennett in Victoria. You’d have to be a lunatic or a fanatic or just plain corrupt to even want to go there now. The Greens are about the only people who are doing reasonable things locally, and they can do it partly because they care about the local in principle and partly because they aren’t distracted by the prospect of federal power.
730 Spot on. Just what I was thinking
redwombat – one thing that has been interesting in this whole saga is that a lot of the time the ALP hasn’t actually had to do anything. They don’t need to say ‘You have lied”, because someone else, somewhere, is saying it for them. It just gives me a little bit of hope.
Jenny @731.
Total, unadulterated, self serving, crap!
I’m not sure why you say that. It’s happened over and over again during this election campaign – Rudd has taken a very cautiously worded position in relation to something outrageous that the Libs have done, and other people (mostly NGOs) have made most of the running in the critique.
Whoops – I was replying to the wrong post. Re local government, the Kennett trick of amalgamating councils and then reducing councillor numbers has made it incredibly hard for people to ‘do’ local government except as a full-time or heavy half-time job. That’s all I was referring to. And it’s not self-serving at all.
jenny,
1. 15-20k a year as a half job?
2. Politicians are still coming through. Check your local State Government. ( hint see Minister a guy called Dick Wynne).
3. Greens……..Who?, Where?
4. Examples of corruption please!
5. Council elections every three years.
Some of us said at the time that Possum’s extrapolation of Newspoll to show Labor winning Warringah and Wannon was silly, and got called all sorts of rude things for our temerity. We all thought there would be a Drs’ wives swing to some extent, and we were all wrong, but Possum I’m afraid was wrongest. When it came to the crunch, class was the divider, and the liberal bourgeoisie “clung onto nurse, for fear of finding something worse.” It was the ex-Howard battlers wot swung it.
Adam,
For the record (again), wot sung em?
70% WorkChoices, 15% interest rates, 15% bored with Howard. In Qld there was also a “we want Kevin” vote.
Lateline tonight:
Viriginia is Costello’s fluffer.
Both from the southern state, and clearly have worked together previously.
It makes a deeper meaning to the term ‘talking head’, if you think about it in a graphic way.
Whilst fluffing, it is not allowed to ask what it’s been like giving your gonads to your boss to keep in a jar for over a decade, as it’s a ‘deflating’ question.
Fluffees don’t like ‘deflation’, but don’t mind ‘inflation’.
Here endeth the economics lesson. Too hard?
HAHHAHAHAHA
Nelson started crying after WINNING the Liberal leadership ballot!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22851340-11949,00.html
Turnbull went to his office after, and told him to toughen up.
Adam,
We are clearly in violent agreement! My kids love a happy ending.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=SvBIyJf6el0
1. 15-20 is only a half job if you’re at the bottom of any conceivable pay scale; last time I looked, the average Oz wage was getting close to 60, which means that about 60% of the punters earn less. Besides, if you do a proper job, it’s a damn sight more than half time.
2. I know politicians are still coming through, but what worries me is that they are coming through from the old regime, not the new one.
3. Moonee Valley for one – we’ve got a green mayor. Maribyrnong for another. I only keep track of local politics in my locality, which I suspect is pretty typical.
4. I can’t detail anything for obvious reasons – it would be defamatory – but I can only assume that you haven’t had much to do with VCAT.
5. Yes. So?
Jenny,
1. Most Councils are turning over $90m + a year. Do you seriously want people in office who think that a $15k stipend is a major proportion of their personal income. I understand that being a Councillor is time consuming, but it is a community service issue. Most Coucillors don’t give a fig about the money.
2. Well dooby dooby do!
3. Mung beans for all in Moonee Valley
4. If you can’t be specific about corruption, then don’t talk about it. My cat is called Vee.
5. Democracy broken?
One week on and it never ceases to amuse….
The AEC still is reporting polling places to be returned.
There is no information of indication as to the expected number of postals, absenetee and prepolls. Yes we know the number they have counted but how many were issued….. there really is no reason why this infmrtaion should not be avialable on the monday following the election if not before. There should also be a daily totoal of teh nuymber oif postal vpytes returned up until teh cut-off date. (Unless they are still printing ballots…
)
divisionnmpollingplacesexpectedpollingplacesreturned
Berowra4645
Bradfield4744
Kalgoorlie10396
Lyons9796
Macquarie7068
Maranoa122121
North Sydney4542
O’Connor151144
Parkes108107
Pearce6964
Robertson 5251
Swan4241
Green Growler 745. Council elections in Victoria every four years. (Fixed terms)… We should have the same for the Federal Elections…
JTV at the Howard Election Night Bash – talk about sore losers, and note PIers chatting to Howard.
http://www.abc.net.au/jtv/video/default.htm?clip=howardsparty
And this years SOUR-GRAPES Award goes to Peter Costello for spitting the dummy when his party needed him the most.
Well done Pete!
Puff piece on Julie Bishop being Deputy leader from her local rag.
http://www.postnewspapers.com.au/20071201/news/004.shtml
Yes 746, the AEC really has to get their act together. Perhaps the new government should have a good look at the administration of this institution, voters have a right to expect that their vote will be allocated expeditiously. I am smelling a dead RAT in all this, we do not want any influence of US dirty tricks here, next they will be talking about hanging chads.
Malcolm Turnbull is the leader in waiting. The extreme right of the Libs need to do a bit more damage until they finally handover the reins to Malcolm who will lead the Liberal party to a noble defeat (as he always does) at the 2010 election.
No I can go back to sleep.
The weird thing about that Australian scoop on Turnbull berating Nelson for being ‘funereal’ is that it must have been leaked by Nelson or his supporters. So we have a pushy-tough guy Turnbull spitting the dummy in defeat, and a meek Nelson team briefing the press to undermine Turnbull from day 2.
Rudd-Gillard will last I’d say 5 years; Nelson-Turnbull will be lucky to make 2.
Haneef inquiry to be “expandeded” according to this news article. Apparently a judicial inquiry has been slated by the ALP, but McClelland has hinted at a broader inquiry. How many Team rodent members have skeletons in the cupboard?
doh – expandeded = expanded (does that mean that expandeded is the expanded version of expanded?)
So now we have a f##### cry-baby in the top job, just wait until our bovver-boys, hardened in the factions, get stuck in. We will give the little twat something to really blubber about. Haneef, AWB, Siev X et al, oh the humanity.
Nobody, and I repeat (for added emphasis, and a moment to think across this wide brown land, who else?) nobody examines the body politic with more forensic detail and then reports the findings with such blunt incisiveness. Here’s Alan Ramsay in the SMH today:
“In one of the more brutal political squelches of recent years, even the old Treasury mandarin, John Stone, a former National Party Senate leader, was moved to say of Nelson: “He reminds me of Andrew Peacock without the substance.” Nelson’s absurd elevation, by so narrow a margin (45 votes to 42), only makes sense if you accept that sooner or later either Turnbull or Abbott will eat him. Not immediately, of course, but inevitably.”
…Andrew Peacock without the substance! Yes, but Horatio Hornet did have the cheque book, unfortunately.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/look-left-look-right-look-/2007/11/30/1196394619997.html
Just how did Stewart Mcarthur get a vote in the Liberal Leadership challenge.
Latest election results show Stewart living the seat of Corangamite. I guess John Howard should have also been allowed to vote in that reckoning.
Andrew Landeryou has reported a likely challenge to the legitimacy of the leadership ballot. Instead of a margin of four there will be a margin of one for Turnbull to lead the shatterd remnants of the Liberals’ party reps.
I wonder what Old Ironbar and the Junee Heifer were thinking when Lord Nelson was bawling his eyes out.
Watch your back, Brendan.
Fagin, jeez can you imagine, I would love to have seen the Heifer’s face, it would be priceless. Definitely worth a thousand words hahahaha, oh ffs, my sides are splitting.
758 Wouldn’t it be funny if the usual suspects who won money on the election, and won again when Horatio Hornet beat the merchant banker, win again soon when Horatio is rolled. Oh, the comedy that the Liberal Party produces.
Has anyone had a close look at the counting in Calare?
Does anyone know about Green preferences in Calare?
If they preference the independent Priestley ahead of the ALP candidate then there is still a chance that the independent will get that seat. If he gets ahead of the ALP then John Cobb might have some cause for concern
Wilson Tuckey faces a similar conundrum in O’Connor. Again it all depends on the Green preferences. If they have been tactical in how to votes and if the National candidate has a green tinge and gets ahead of the ALP then it could be ian interesting count.
Both scenarios not likely but on the figures the possibility exsts
Is there a betting market on how many days Horatio lasts, might get me some of that.
“Horatio Hornet”
That’s bloody brilliant
The swings to Labor in SA are instructive. It would seem that Karen Lock in Barker and Karin Bolton in Grey should have received extra help from the ALP rather than Nicole Cornes in Boothby and Mia Handshin in Sturt. Here are the swings to Labor:
10.39 Barker
9.62 Grey
8.57 Makin
7.58 Wakefield
7.23 Port Adelaide
7.00 Adelaide
6.50 Mayo
5.56 Sturt
4.86 Hindmarsh
4.59 Kingston
2.33 Boothby
Country areas an the northern suburbs swung most, the southern suburbs least.
Many of my favourite candidates lost, including Nicole Cornes, Mia Handshin, Peter Tinley, Rodney Cocks and maybe Geroge Colbran. But Mike Kelly delivered!
Doug,
Although I cannot stand him, I sincerely hope that Wilson Tuckey holds O’Connor.
Ironbar’s fuse is lit; stand back and watch the show!
764 [“Horatio Hornet”
That’s bloody brilliant]
Don’t blame me, it was kirribilli Removals brilliant mind that came up with that one.
Do you guys remember when Downer was elected as liberals leader? Keating absolutely ripped him to shreds. It proved to be a huge mistake cause Howard took over and then became PM.
The labor party must be ruthless and not even give a billimetre. Go easy on Brendan(never voted liberal in my life)Nelson. It’s safer than having Turnbull there.
What about Bishop? She may eventually get to partner with, liberals going through leaders, as many as Debbie Does Dallas.
Doug @ 762, the other independant, Windsor, tips calare to be closer than people think. Be nice to see Preistley get up – especially at the expense of Cobb.
“With 82% of the votes counted now on Friday night on a two party preferred basis that is something over 730,000 votes cast for the House of Reps”
Huh?
http://wmmbb.wordpress.com/2007/11/30/election-landslide/
View from a disendorsed Liberal. Funny cartoon too.
http://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/node/5591
Maxine says Bennelong is firmly hers. ABC Radio.
ABC on line.
McKew declares victory in Bennelong
Last update: 01:53:51 30/11/2007
One week after election day high-profile Labor recruit Maxine McKew has claimed victory in the northern Sydney seat of Bennelong, held by John Howard for the past 33 years.
The AEC does in fact provide a tally board of the number of postal votes issued and returned, unfortunately this information is not available in the data feeds or in an easy to get a central location. You have to open each of the 150 division sites… Which will involve a screen scraper. Two more hours work.
There is no such information on the Senate stats and the senate polling Place results are still not available. Anyone scrutinising the close counts would want to make a comparison with the senate results to make sure all votes are accounted for. Count updates are now very very slow..
What a wonderful day.
Horation Hornet is good. Horation Hankyblower also has a certain aptness.
Are you kidding? That 70 year old corpse from Corrangamite was allowed to vote in the Liberal leadership ballot, even though it’s very likely he’s lost his seat?
Turnball ought to ask for another ballot.
I thought someone said the slapper was retired. Unfortunately she just seems to be having a holiday and writing the odd piece to justify it as a working holiday apparently. Maybe just popping in on some strikes and riots in Paris to sharpen up the skills for the next election.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/election_debacle_doesnt_devalue_crucial_triumphs
Steve 778
Apart from the rest of Albrechtsen’s jet slag, this is correct:
‘Howard cemented his personal philosophy that individuals make better choices’
There’s been a big turn-around in McEwen. Latest update shows Fran Bailey ahead by just 122 votes, with absentees running over 61% to Labor. Latest update on Flynn has Labor 636 votes ahead and looking safe. Robertson still tight, the much-maligned Belinda Neal is just 296 ahead.
Rob Mitchell now only 122 votes behind in McEwan.
Couple of thoughts:
If you just look at the AEC (no inside knowledge or anything), there’s no reason to think Calare or O’Connor is settled yet. O’Connor there are no absents, pre-polls or postal results published yet, and Calare the Independent is running at 30% on these which means he is likely to overtake Labor and win, if the current trend continues.
Most of the Liberal Party (outside WA) would surely be cheering on the Nats in O’Connor. And the ALP would have to be cheering for Tuckey.
And Turnbull, in my view, will lead the Liberals to the next election. Nelson looks like a patsy, and I’m sure there’d be people who voted for him this time just to try to keep Turnbull’s ego in check.
Re: McEwen – could this be the mysterious 3,000 missing votes finally being counted?
To William Bowe
Statistical Forecast of the 9 doubtful seats
please advise if the mehodology below is ok
By seat:
I calculated the no. of votes uncounted in each voter type ,
deducted the variable informal vote % in each voter type ,
calculated the net votes uncounted per voter type & applied the 2PP % vote on counted votes todate for each voter type
I assumed ALL ‘provisional’ votes were excluded which had the effect of
treating any ‘Provisional’ votes that were counted as an ‘ordinary’ vote
I assumed 100% did vote …but won’t)
Flynn ALP + 804
Solomon ALP – 79
Robertson ALP +114
Swan ALP -316
Bowman ALP + 29
Herbert ALP -268
Dickson ALP -149
McEwan ALP -239
La Trobe ALP -452
This is an interesting thing to say on behalf of a P.M. who increased transfer payments by $90 billion.
Basil. In spite the obvious shortcomings in reporting the election results I find the AEC to be a far more responsible and efficient organisation then the State electoral authorities. Just look at Victoria and Steve Tully’s effort to cover up their stuff up.. Details of the State election are still unpublished a year later.
Having indicated that I intended to make a submission and complaint about the management of the Victorian election, Steve Tully vexatiously removed my name from the Victorian voters list and falsely lodged a complaint with the Victorian department of Justice. How dutifuly followed up on his complaint only to latyer abanmdon it. Tully has become the laughing joke of the electoral council and does not even know his own act. A follow up complaint is on the way to the State Parliament. I would have complained to the Ombudsman but Tully is exempt from any review by the Ombudsman.
I do not expect Tully’s contract to be renewed lol
Overall I think the AEC has done a good job.
Another McEwen update. Rob Mitchell only 98 behind.
Labor only down by 98 votes in McEwen
PM it is apparently closer. 4000 absentees to be counted this afternoon. Another 1000 odd on Monday. And there are another 4000 floating around in late postals etc for next week.
The other result likely to come out of the count is sexual harrassment charges against a Liberal scrutineer for allegedly inappropriate behaviour.
MCEWEN Latest figures Updated: 1/12/2007 12:29:26 PM
BAILEY, Fran Liberal 43,206 50.08 56.42 -6.34
MITCHELL, Rob Australian Labor Party 43,072 49.92 43.58 +6.34
The Liberal Party of Australia (ALP) has become a narrow mined negative thinking lazy one-dimensional reactionary Party.
The Howard Government while generally a good Government the above paragraph can describe it.
While all Governments have preferred lobbyist the Howard Govt was quick to dismiss criticism with the following “Your a Lefty’ based on this premise that would make me a Lefty which also showed the Howard Government wasn’t in touch with its own Heartland.
While its true Australians by nature are more conservative its important to recognize that compared to Americans they are more Socially Liberal but how did Howard handle this.
Howard on several occasions came out with policies which were clearly not thought out and the evidence for this was the way Howard did several back-flips and the way in which he sold the policies.
Howard seemed to Govern for the ACA/TT crowd lets take Welfare when Work-for-the Dole was announced then Victorian premier Jeffrey came out on 3AW with a very sensible idea of including a training component Howard dismissed it.
Howard then ran a Disability Employment network in a Socialist manner which made it harder for people on DSP to find a real Job, then blamed them for his policy failure.
Howard sat on 2 Million unemployed or underemployed doing nothing to enhance their skill base.
Howard was correct that no one wants their house value to be lowered but at the same time many people who are in full-time employment and while on good incomes are faced with increased rents or interest rates while the Govt has invented Workchoices which was Economic madness that you would expect from the ALP.
Which in the real world could have stifled wage growth therefore consumer spending therefore business profits therefore economic growth therefore Government revenue.
Howard while can came credit for the GST, East Timor and Gun control he deserves no praise for the way he lead the Liberal Party.
The best Liberal PMs are out right Leftwing compared to Howard.
Deakin, Menzies, Gorton
Can the Liberal party recover of course it will but just like the ALP it needs to keep an eye on its extreme wings and one other thing and I must thank Kevin Rudd can never hear about Class based envy again for no one in voterland gives a stuff about Unions or Left vs Right wing for all we the Voters want is a good sensible honest Government.
The Liberal Party needs to not make excuses for it has a set of poor policies, has a very poor membership and as someone earlier listed the Victorian branch principles which clearly the Liberals didn’t base their policies around, The Liberal Party deserves to be out of office until it comes to quips with the notice that we the Voters want a Government which delivers a good healthy economy, maintains Law and Order in a fair and balanced manner and as a Government is honest accountable and professional again for the party of individual freedom the attack on Gillard’s private life was pathetic, ‘yes heffernan’.
Interesting to speculate on Nelson’s longevity in the job. Its legit to do so in a way I don’t think it would be if Malcolm had found those 3 votes. If Lib polling is tanking around 12 months out of the next election? That points to some frantic re-positioning to get close to what Mega George called the ‘fulcrum’ of the electorate (moderately conservative but essentially tolerant).
Charlie @ 783
The ‘mysterious 3000 votes’ turned out to be the 2070 absentees now counted, which were added to the AEC website Thursday night. They apparently all came from one booth in Scullin which probably should have been a shared booth by all accounts.
This morning’s improvement in the ALP’s position in McEwan comes entirely from an additional 1000 postals. Prior to today postals had shown almost no swing to Labor at all, so the natural order of things appears to be reasserting itself – which is a good sign for Labor.
We should have a better idea by the end of today about McEwan as the story is that 4000 absentees are scheduled for counting this afternoon.
What a fantastic day.
NOW I feel relaxed and comfortable!!
I know I wasn’t the only one who was too frightened to express their REAL emotions and won’t until the new govt is sworn in.
Still can’t trust the remnants.
785 ShowsOn
‘This is an interesting thing to say on behalf of a P.M. who
increased transfer payments by $90 billion’.
Voting choices, ShowsOn.
Shall I do it yet?
I reckon ESJ is Janet Albrechtsen – more of Fifth Columnist – I’d say.
Are you changing to daylight saving? William?
By the way, the name of the seat is McEwen.
It’s not only in McEwen that the ALP is doing better in absentees after being bludgeoned in the pre-polls and postals. As the absentees are being counted later than them this means that Labor candidates are coming back in many marginals. If the same pattern is occurring in all seats then the overall 2pp should start to rise slightly again.
RE CALARE
this seat could be close depending on who finishes third labor or indep
The people in half this seat were represented by Mr Andren previously
maybe the green & other non major party voters might allocate prefernces so as
to try and ensure Mr Cobb doesn’t win
Does any one know?
762 Doug Says:
The GRN preferenced the independent before the CLP.
The total Ind+GRN vote is 19672 to the CLP’s 18,556. If the GRN preferences are tight and CLP somehow managed to figure out that they should preference the ind before Cobb then it might be interesting.
The ALP’s HTV is no longer available online so has anybody got any info on that.
Albert Ross, it’s a fairly safe bet that Labor (what is this ‘Country Labor’ rubbish, btw?) preferenced Peter Andren’s chosen successor ahead of John Cobb.
RE CALARE
I cannot locate the state wide how to vote But I would be sure MR Priestly
would have been placed ahead of Mr cobb…. so if things stay as they are
Mr cobb would lose
Calare HTV
http://velausanakha.smvnetwork.com/wordpress/2007/11/24/htv/
RE 805 thank you… As I suspected maybe Calare will again return an independent
which would make only 9 nat party mps and be a fitting tribute to Mr Andren
Robertson down to a 270 vote lead from 296 last night. It will only take one large batch of nursing home votes from here ….
Charlie @ 804 it’s what the AEC say is Allen’s party affiliation (http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-109.htm ). I agree with you it’s a bit poncie but there you go.
It’s pleasing to see that the ALP perceived the worth of tactics here – not always the case historically.
Does anyone know if they tried or they ran dead to the extent of making sure that the Ind’s HTVs were handed out at all booths.
Having screen scraped the data.. Here is the current summary of what the AEC has recorded in their Divisional scrutiny summaries (space delimited).. by STATE
Absent Provisional Pre-Poll Postal Total
ACT 6469 5448 60258 24448 75518
NSW 551406 96121 874657 549851 929386
VIC 403605 77926 787259 613826 830780
QLD 360848 70676 406683 443882 551200
WA 222219 43851 181614 102087 233781
SA 137242 28526 136410 149080 206503
TAS 46868 8646 51341 52081 61440
NT 4511 4222 38103 8196 24338
Sorry ignore that data (it is a double-up)…
ESJ at 807: I dunno why you would say that. The TPP vote in the two larger SHTs was 50/50.
Mind you if Lloyd does get up there will be a bright side: it will hopefully see the demise of Mrs Della Bosca’s political fantasies.
However I suspect that they will have to drive a golden stake through her heart to make sure she is truly politically dead.
ABC Radio News said there are still 10,000 votes to count in McEwen. I suspect Fran Bailey will hold on, but the Labor bloke is making a spirited comeback.
Robertson: how many left to count there? Belinda will hold on, I predict!
Doesn’t seem there will be any counting today in the doubtful QLD seats.
All the prepolls have been counted in Robertson
About 800ish postals left
Absentees are favouring Labor
OK here is the correct breakdown. There should not be any more votes issued but more postals can be received back (not sure as to the cut off-date)
StateID, Categrory, SumOfAbsentee SumOfPostal SumOfPre_poll SumOfProvisional SumOfTotal
ACT, Envelopes Issued, 3458 10654 27771 2724 44607
ACT, Envelopes Received, 1618 9794 16775 2724 30911
ACT, Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny, 22 11 21 0 0
NSW, Envelopes Issued, 275610 236711 369116 47949 929386
NSW, Envelopes Received, 249445 204797 305943 47949 808134
NSW, Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny, 132 300 221 8 0
NT, Envelopes Issued, 2002 3054 17171 2111 24338
NT, Envelopes Received, 2002 3519 15019 2111 22651
NT, Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny, 11 2 4 0 0
QLD, Envelopes Issued, 163895 182412 169555 35338 551200
QLD, Envelopes Received, 136859 142403 137340 35338 451940
QLD, Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny, 401 203 65 0 0
SA , Envelopes Issued, 70237 64603 57400 14263 206503
SA , Envelopes Received, 64643 46872 42895 14263 168673
SA , Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny, 8 35 68 0 0
TAS, Envelopes Issued, 16938 19335 21003 4164 61440
TAS, Envelopes Received, 16887 17517 17526 4164 56094
TAS, Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny, 591 168 51 106 0
VIC, Envelopes Issued, 216572 249413 325832 38963 830780
VIC, Envelopes Received, 173964 208692 266887 38963 688506
VIC, Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny, 39 259 354 0 0
WA , Envelopes Issued, 107115 29224 75619 21823 233781
WA , Envelopes Received, 83137 36527 60806 21823 202293
WA , Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny, 121 39 40 8 0
John Quiggin has a crack at a Howard political obituary.
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2007/12/01/john-howard-a-political-obituary/
Julie I would argue the labor party made their choices, it was the electorate that wasn’t comfortable.
It’s the same with the liberal party, if they want to govern they have to select someone the electorate is comfortable with. I would suggests that is a centralist.
To get elected the labor party had to get over class politics, they did, they had to give the left representation in proportion to the vote they bring ( as they have nowhere to go, thats very little); they have. To get elected the liberal party has to get over class politics; they haven’t, and they have to give the right representation in proportion to the vote they bring, not done.
ESJ says in an earlier post
“Essentially I agree with the Latham hypothesis that organised politics in this country is broken.
Unfortunately because of his own bitterness that thoughtful message has been lost on people”
Edward – I knew if I kept at it long enough I would find something that you and I could agree on. It WAS a thoughtful – and in my opinion -accurate reflection by Latham. Just a pity that his emotional failings ended up with him being labelled a nutter, which he clearly isn’t.
By the way, since today is apparently your swan song on this site, may I wish you the best of luck in all your future pursuits.
Im my opinion…
With McEwen with lets say 10,000 votes to go. There should be more Absent & Prov vs Pre-Poll & Postals. However even if we use a 50/50 allocation for each group holding the same current vote percentages 60/40 & 45/55 ALP split for each group respectively…loooks like its ALP at around 50.4% (at least). Hopefully this is real and not a bunchof silly numbers.
ESJ,
I am out celebrating Labor’s victory tonight so will miss your valedictory.
Whether you are exiling yourself to Antarctica to win “the battle of ideas” with the local penguins or have decided to make your fame and fortune in the new Labor Utopia, farewell and best regards.
PS Are you Caroline Overington?
The “narrowing” appears to be in the postal votes. On election night it was 53.5% odd TPP to Labor. This was in line with the last minute polls, but also the earlier polls that Newspoll and AC Nielsen had (54-46). These were somewhat meaningless though, since the Libs had locked in a lot of their vote through early postals. The fact that only 75-80% of the vote is now cast on election day is disturbing.
Rightly or wrongly, the Coalition seems to have had a massive postal vote. This may be due to “stuffing” by sitting Coalition MPs or due to factors when the postal votes were cast weeks in advance (eg. Lib tax cuts) – but who can say. Nonetheless, it does smell fishy. And it’s now these postal votes that are winding back what appeared to be certain Labor wins last Saturday night. It has now brought the TPP for Labor under 53%. Please see http://www.aec.gov.au for the latest results. The ABC computer has been bouncing seats back and forth all week based on strange and inconsistent postal vote figures.
This is why Liberal insiders were talking about winning with 48% TPP. They were not going to do it just through clever “electoral math” (ie. Labor swings in the wrong places) but with their (legitimate or otherwise) postal vote advantage. A 51.5-48.5 ish count on election night, could have been wound back and won for the Liberals on postals during the weeks after. It was only when they got 46.5% on election night did they have to concede because their postal votes that they had counted via the electoral offices wouldn’t be enough to wind back a Labor victory.
The AEC needs to either ban postal votes, or reform the system such that MPs are not allowed to send out postal vote applications. It gives incumbents an unfair advantage, and also is open to abuse, given that the applications go via an electoral office. (Talk about putting the fox in charge of the hen house!) I dare say the Coalition electoral office shredders probably favour certain postal vote applications over others…
Call me a conspiracy theorist, but even if there wasn’t foul play, the postal vote system is dangerous and always has been. Even President Kennedy in the US played this game in West Virginia. There’s also been cases in the UK in 2005, where incumbent Labour has been using it to its advantage. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/4408101.stm
Pre-polling places are a much better idea and are under tight AEC control, just like the polling places on election day. We are getting to be a very lazy society when now we even want to vote from home… Time to rethink postals.
Based on similar thoughts for Robertson but a 60/40 group split of 5000 vote estimate with same current % prefs…thtas at least 50.3 for ALP
McEwen 2004:
Ordinary: 70,428 (Lib 39,302, 55.8%, ALP 31,126, 44.2)
Absent: 6,188 (Lib 3,468, 56.0%, ALP 2,720 44.0%)
Provisional 553 (Lib 316, 57.1%, ALP 237, 42.9%)
Prepoll 3,451 (Lib 2,108, 61.1%, ALP 1,343 38.9%)
Postal 6,798 (Lib 4,128, 60.7%, ALP 2,670 39.3%)
McEwen 2007:
Ordinary 74,692 (Lib 37,056, 49.6%, ALP 37,636, 50.4%)
Absent 2,070 (Lib 802, 38.7%, ALP 1,268 61.3%)
Provisional not counted
Prepoll 2,441 (Lib 1,344, 55.1%, ALP 1,097, 44.9%)
Postal 7,004 (Lib 3,957, 56.5%, ALP 3,047, 43.5%)
Thus, the only reason Bailey is ahead is that she did well on the prepolls and postals. Presumably most of these are now counted, although the prepoll is lower than last time which seems odd given that enrolment has increased by 9,000. Bailey will probably maintain her edge in whatever postals are still to come in. There are 4,000 fewer absents than last time, so presumably the bulk of the uncounted votes are absents. Labor is doing very well on these and if they get can indeed get 61% of these 4,000 votes they will win, but that can’t be assumed. Nevertheless Labor seems likely to have the advantage of the late count from here.
John Ryan…in the future postals will disappear and become internet votes. Having said that, I dont believe the voting pattern for incumbants will really change.
Observant Jews can’t vote by internet on a Saturday, so they will still have to prepoll or post.
I meant internet for prepoll & postal, not election day
I don’t think people trust the integrity of internet voting sufficiently to allow online voting from home. Online voting at the polling booth is another matter.
I have noted with some interest how much more it has been raining in the eastern states since last Saturday.
Just like when Hawkie won in ‘83.
Precipitation will ALWAYS be higher under a Labor government!
Snakeboy – yes if we follow the H*ward doctrine correlation is causation!
Once they find a way there’s no stopping this fandangled contraption called the interent
Wagga has had a fair bit of rain since last Saturday. Best rain we’ve had for a long time.
I would be in favour of interweb tube broadbeany thingy voting IF and its a big IF there was a verifiable audit trail for all votes.
Until then I think the system we have is OK.
John Ryan (820) As an ex AEC person, I share your concern about the current trend in postal voting. I think it is outrageous the way the major parties have become involved in the process, sending out postal vote applications to all and sundry like confetti – and then interposing themselves between the voter and the AEC when the votes are returned. It should be a requirement that all postal votes must be posted directly to the AEC, not via the local member’s office.
This is something that crept in about 15 years ago ago and both the Labor and Liberal parties have since been up to their necks in it. They have turned it into an art form – and the number of postals now issued at each election has got completely out of control. I don’t agree that the parties would ever deliberately tamper with votes, but there is always the possiblity they with lose or misplace them.
It isn’t possible to completely ban postal votes, as they serve a valuable purpose for people travelling overseas and for the elderly, or disabled, who cannot get to a polling place. But something needs to be done to try and get some sanity back into the whole thing. Unfortunately, the only ones who can fix it – the two major parties – are having too much fun trying to gain an advantage over each other, to want to do anything about it. So I guess for now we’re stuck with it.
I heard there was monsoon like water works in the Liberal rooms at Parliament House by Dr Blub.
John Ryan @820…don’t forget retirement villages ,nursing homes,etc.
Agree open to abuse, as is proposed electronic voting if US is any indication.
So it looks like what women want is not the What Women Want party.
the heavens are about to open up in Yass……
There is something very civic and engaging about election day. It is a great democratic symbol and would be a pity if it disappeared into virtual world. How very olde worlde of me…
It also looks like 1866 people decided not to go fishing last Saturday.
Pancho
Don’t worry the local butchers would never allow it – how many sausages were sizzled on election day.
and shooting?
ruawake – I hope they’ve got a good union.
Pancho….quite a few went rodent shooting though
Darn, postal votes are NOT posted to local members’ offices. They are posted by the AEC to the voter, and by the voter directly back to the AEC. It’s the postal vote APPLICATION that is sent back to the member’s (or candidate’s) office. The only time an actual ballot paper is seen by a member or candidate or their staff is when a postal voter asks for help filling it out, as elderly RPVs often do.
Labor lead holding in Flynn – 638 votes.
Adam (843) Thanks for reminding me of that. It still does bother me though the extent to which the parties have become involved in the process.
Adam – What’s an “RPV” ?
Newhouse building up a landslide on the Absent vote
Albert Ross (846) RPV stands for Registered Postal Voter. These are people who register with the AEC to have their ballot papers automatically sent to them whenever an election is called, without having to fill out a postal vote application.
For Matt Price and Bernie Banton:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=YNn8VehtM6k
Any further word on McEwen? Weren’t they meant to be counting another 4000 votes this afternoon?
George Newhouse: shares the award with Nicole Cornes for Worst ALP Candidate In A Marginal Seat
Progressive @ 850
Libs’ lead is still unchanged at 111 votes, according to the AEC. Not sure how far they are through counting the remaining votes though!
yeah…newhouse wasnt to crash hot was he. I remember seeing him & Hawke having a walk to meet the people. Poor old George didnt have clue…seemed like he did even want to shake hands with people. The look Bob give him when he let an old woman walk by without greeting her.
On the other hand, Nicole was just too green and well over her head. She needs some political work experience first.
Newhouse’s ex girlfriend would have made a better Labor candidate.
Only 78% of the vote counted in Wentworth – the rest to come is absentees/overseas votes? You might find Turnball’s 2PP vote goes back to 52%.
I did calculate uncounted absentees, informals,provisionals ,prepost ,postals,normal
RESULT:
Flynn ALP + 804
Solomon ALP – 79
Robertson ALP +114
Swan ALP -316
Bowman ALP + 29
Herbert ALP -268
Dickson ALP -149
McEwen ALP -239
La Trobe ALP -452
Expect
Labor wins Flynn
LCP wins La Trobe
LCP probably wins Herbert , McEwen & Swan
EITHER could win Solomon , Robertson, Bowman & Dickson
I had already given the Nicole Cornes award to Bob Day in Makin for his performance of “He’s Got the Whole World” to a class of students at a Christian School.
http://www.abc.net.au/stateline/sa/content/2006/s2094755.htm
Registered postal voter.
The Liberal party became what it is because the liberals ignored politics and went off and did their own thing.
If you care now might be the time to join the party. Don’t leave it to others.
.
Power corrupts, that is just the way it is, in several years time Australia will need a viable alternative government.
It isn’t going to happen with the present bunch.
Bob Day, who has conclusively proved that you can’t buck the swing in a suburban seat no matter how much you spend. A useful lesson.
ShowsOn, I agree – I saw that Bob Day school visit on Lateline a few weeks ago. A truly scary thing.
The students looked thoroughly bored during his performance, but then when questioned, seemed to worship him.
I’m not sure which was more scary – Bob Day or the next generations of Young Liberals coming through that school!
I’m advised by a well-informed sauce (cranberry I think) that there are 7,000 absents, 5,000 prepolls and maybe 2,000 postals still to come in McEwen. Prepolls and postals have generally favoured the Libs in most seats, while absents vote much the same way as ordinary booth voters. Labor won the overall booth vote in McEwen, but not by much. So Labor will have to do very well with the absents to overcome Bailey’s advantage in the prepolls and postals. My sauce says it’s still possible, but not likely, that Labor can get up.
Yes, on election day he paid for BBQs at every single polling booth in Makin.
It seems that a lot of people enjoying the sausages didn’t vote for him.
At least those kids looked over the age of 15. The best thing about the election being over is I no longer have to see 12 year olds at local shopping centres wearing Bob Day T-shirts.
Ron i wouldnt be too quick to throw away McEwen…
Any reason the ALP front YR@W needs to keep going under a Rudd government? Seems very strange.
I thought it was your view that the Rudd government will betray the workers at the first opportunity, Bill. Surely YR@W needs to continue to make sure that doesn’t happen.
Adam, does your tasty sauce have anything to say about Flynn? It’s looking close but good to me, but I don’t know any party people connected there.
Those of you who are anticipating that provisional votes may have a significant impact on the election results in the closest seats should have a careful read of paragraph 12(b)(iii) of Schedule 3 to the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/sch3.html)
#
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Adam Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 6:31 pm
I thought it was your view that the Rudd government will betray the workers at the first opportunity, Bill. Surely YR@W needs to continue to make sure that doesn’t happen.
Yes thats right Adam but i thought that with God being elected all will be well. My kids cant wait to get their computers and extra cheap broadband. I wonder if we will still get the lump sum payment per child we got under Howard and we are going to miss out on rebate on school fees Howard promised. So the computers better be totally free and be able to take home
Adam 822 – the 04 election was a week after school/uni holidays, at least in Qld. Maybe that could explain higher pre-polling last time?
868
bill weller – considering Wayne Swan has said those payments aren’t real i don’t like your chances.
Bill – rebates for school fees was the worst piece of bribery masquerading as public policy I’ve ever seen. It would have distorted the already serious problem in educational opportunity. Thank god it’s gone the way of Medicare Gold.
Before the election, as part of its tracking of ordinary voters, the ABC had a nice interview with some farming types, with kids at private school, condemning it.
Glen you are joking? So the working class elects a ALP government and then ends up worse of? Those payments pay for School stuff. This is typical of the new DLP/SDA new leadership. Rudd was in poverty when he was young, does he want the rest of us to have the same. Gee i cant wait to tell all the people that look forward to those payments that they will be gone. Oh yeh and the computers are only 50% covered so many wont be able to afford them either.
Another Matt Price story from the archives:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19491811-12854,00.html
“Do or die for Labor’s union connections”, June 17, 2006.
Matt states towards the end of the article: “a Coalition loss could instantly reduce the Liberals to an impotent rump.”
He got that right.
Graeme Says:rebates for school fees was the worst piece of bribery masquerading as public policy.
Ok Graeme so what will the disadvantaged get to alleviate their burdens?
Dont you think the computer rebate isn’t a bribe? Bribe for people who can afford half the cost
So Bill, you wanted Howard to win?
wyzsiwig, sorry, my source was a Victorian one. But I think we will win Flynn and lose Herbert. Bowman is genuinely too close to call.
I see Bill has founded a new party, Marxists for Middle-Class Handouts.
Adam #861
Absent Provisional Pre-Poll Postal Total
Envelopes Issued 9,525 1,091 7,920 8,338 26,874
Envelopes Received 2,451 1,091 2,564 5,915 12,021
Rejected at Preliminary Sc2 0 4 11 0
Ballot Papers Counted 2,227 0 5,421 7,158
aec says different figures to your source
but how does they aec count MORE pre polls & postals than they received !!
#
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Gary Bruce Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 7:14 pm
So Bill, you wanted Howard to win?
No i want the poor and poverty stricken the single parents the pensioners to be better of under Rudd. But i think we will be worse off.
And your reasoning is? You seem to be putting Rudd down before he has even been sworn in. What hppened to the ‘give the bloke ago first before condemning him’ idea’, ie a fair go?
Adam what would be Rishworths beliefs on Gay rights and gay activism ? She thinks that abortion should be decided by the voters and not women themselves and Student Unionism should not be compulsory. So gays should be……. I love it when religion gets into politics it even has people like Adam who should know better standing up for religious bigots
Any ALP Members here got any thoughts on modernising membership criteria?
I’ve been an ALP supporter for quite a while, assisting in elections, supporting candidates etc but have always baulked at becoming an ALP member due to the requirement that you must be a union member.
For some professions such as mine (CPA), professional membership is already an expensive exercise, & the expense of union membership is difficult to justify given that the benefits of union membership, especially in a small professional practice seem to be negligble, if not non-existent.
I’m not sure how stringent the ALP are on the union issue, but it would seem to be in their own interests to expand their membership base?
Gary Bruce Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 7:18 pm
And your reasoning is? You seem to be putting Rudd down before he has even been sworn in. What hppened to the ‘give the bloke ago first before condemning him’ idea’, ie a fair go?
If he is going to change payments then he is not for the little person
Bill when your team gets another 4 million votes we may take you seriously.
Average Green vote per seat – 5620. Pathetic.
Average informal vote 2982. At least the Greens beat someone.
Bill, Amanda Rishworth, like all other members of Caucus, will be bound by party policy. Kevin Rudd said on 8 November: “RUDD: We have said that we will remove all the discriminations concerning same sex couples when it comes to inheritance laws, social security law and other categories, I don’t have the list of 58 in front of me but can I say it’s a very extensive list that we have committed to.” Abortion is a matter of conscience for both parties and while I disagree with the Catholic view I respect it and Rishworth has every right to her views. Abortion law is in any case a state matter.
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ruawake Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 7:25 pm
Bill when your team gets another 4 million votes we may take you seriously.
Average Green vote per seat – 5620. Pathetic.
Average informal vote 2982. At least the Greens beat someone.
ruawake, Age of major parties ?
Age of the Greens ?
Bill the Greens will end up like the Democrats, irrelevant.
For goodness sake, Bill Weller, Rudd used a night off in Melbourne, without any media in attendance, to go and find out for himself, what was happening in homeless shelters and require feedback from members (I think) of the government (that sounds so good) to further inform policy development. Does this sound like someone who is not going to pay attention to fact finding and developing policy to better address the needs of the people I work with day in and out? I know the particular organisation he contacted and went to meet. They wouldn’t be telling him any nonsense, and why would he be there unless he wanted to know, particularly without any tip off to the media. Did it off his own bat. I may yet be proved wrong, but he seems genuine to me.
Any chance of a cut and paste of yesterdays AFR article on Howard clinging to the leadership? Ddn’t get the paper, and it sounds like a good, satisfying read!
Re 886,
ruawake Says:
I wasn’t in Australia when the Democrats were at the peak of their power, but didn’t they have a very good leader then? When he left, the others who took over gradually were less and less able to do the job properly. I suspect that ruawake is right about the Greens insofar as when Bob Brown isn’t the leader any more, it will be a challenge for the next person who wears those shoes if they don’t want to follow the precedent set by the Democrats.
Triffid, You’ve got an interesting point, as many of my associates (health) have to fork up fees left, right and centre (so to speak!) for our various professional organisations, and on top of that for union membership. If anyone in the ALP who can do anything about it is listening, it would probably be worthwhile doing a re-think on membership. For example, a colleague of mine who is a consultant psychiatrist is a Labor supporter, but is up for close on $13.000 in professional indemnity insurance alone. Sort of goes whitish when he gets the annual bill, which I tease him about, given he’s Indian. He teases me back about how dark a whitey can go when I get my various professional bills.
I am a member of the Swan Hills (WA) Branch and am not a union member- which means that in WA, union membership preclude you from joining as a rank and file member.
Trifid @881. I am a member of the ALP in Hinkler, I am self employed and not a member of any unions and have not been a member for 20 years. One does not have to be a member of an union.I participated in all elections at our branch.
Triffid #881
I am a Western Australian Labor Party member and am not a member of a union. It is my understanding that to be a party member you do not have to be a member of a union and remember not all unions are affiliated with the Labor Party. If you are a member of an affiliated union you get a discount. It may be different in other states.
You may be thinking of the requirement for Labor candidates to be members of affiliated unions.
McEwen Update: Fran Bailey’s lead back up to 150
I’ll predict Labor picks up Flynn, Solomon, Robertson and Bowman.
Liberals retain Herbert and McEwen, and gain Swan
Labor 84 seats
I have been an ALP member in the ACT and Qld. I have never been a member of a union.
Wasnt it the unions wot won it? Why would all of you loyalists be wanting to dump the union connection now?
Not dumping ESJ just refuting Liberal Party garbage.
Looking at the SA membership form, it definitely mentions that you must be a union member if eligible.
Perhaps the states each have different rules?
I am a member of a union, I think it is the least I can do to support myself and my fellow workers. Non unionists are a bunch of parasites happy to take every condition won over the years by unions and by extension their members. And by the way the ALP is still the political arm of the unions regardless of what latter day “modernists” think, and a good thing too. I for one am proud of that continuing link.
Labor rules vary from state to state. NSW requires union membership and it seems SA does too. I doubt the rule is enforced. In Victoria there is certainly no such rule. An employer can join the ALP provided they undertake to abide by all industrial laws and awards. I know several very large employers who are ALP members.
Triffid
Apply for membership and leave the union bit blank – bet you get accepted.
Labor rules vary from state to state. NSW requires union membership and it seems SA does too. I doubt the rule is enforced. In Victoria there is certainly no such rule. An employer can join the ALP provided they undertake to abide by all industrial laws and awards. I know several very large employers who are ALP members. I was returning officer in an ALP internal election a few years ago and three successive voters were a union secretary, an Orthodox Rabbi and a millionaire businessman.
Just had a read of the SA ALP membership form and unlike the WA form the SA one has the following under the union section.
“A person applying for membership must be a member of a union, if eligible.”
Triffid I would suggest you contact the state office and get a definite answer.
Why would you want to join the ALP when you have no influence on party policy or branch activities.
Note of course that the rule refers to persons, not triffids. I’m not sure that many unions admit large poisonous plants as members, although I have my suspicions about the CFMEU.
Why would you want to join the Greens and spent a year campaigning for 4,547 votes?
StanS, the point I was trying to make earlier is that some of us who are Labor supporters, have significant $ to pay out for professional membership, registration, professional indemnity, and so forth. It sounds like there are other people such as Triffid who are in the same boat. It’s not that any like myself want to disconnect from the Union connection with the origin and ongoing relationshipt between the Unions and Labor, but more whether there is some other way to address the $ we have to shell out. It might be more straight forward for some groups of people. but for example, my psychiatrist colleague would like to be more a part of an organisation that he believes is more representative of his political views, and contribute to the development of policy. So would I.
Adam at least i enjoyed it.
Adam,
Surely the relevant qualification is “if eligible”. If Triifid is an accountant, depending on his employer, it isn’t obvious that there is an affilliated union for him to join. Of course that doesn’t preclude anyone joining a generalist union, which is what Parliamentarians from non-trade union backgrounds have usually done.
I understood that the Victorian Branch had a similar obligation, with an equivalent “get-out” clause.
BTW, If your numbers of remaining absentee, pre-poll and postal votes for McEwen turn out to be close to the mark, and the percentages so far are replicated in the outstanding ones, Mitchell would win comfortably.
Bailey’s margin on postals is 13% * 2,000 votes increases her advantage by 260;
her margin on pre-polls 11.2% * 5,000 increases her margin by a further 560;
Mitchell’s margin on absentees 22.6% * 7,000 gives him an increase of 1,582.
I recognise I’ve relied on two heroic assumptions, but the net effect of these numbers would easily over-take the current margin of less than 200.
HSO @ 907, Yes like you and your firends I am a member of several professional orgasisations, in fact perversly I was a senior manager in an organisition where I was the only union member. Perhaps your Dr friends should try and get there “professional organisation” eg the AMA (Drs union) to affiliate with the ALP – this is a joke btw.
I just feel that the working conditions we enjoy today are solely the result of strong collective union action, something to be proud of. I doubt that bosses would willingly provide any conditions without the action of the union movement. Witness Hardies and Bernie Banton, without the support of unions they would give nothing.
To hold our vote withstanding the Ruddslide, the slimy fake ACTU and unions in general and a FF high profile candidate is more than i expected. Seems that your prediction that i would get less than last time didnt come true. We will be even stronger in the next State and federal elections. We grew even with your messiah winning. And i now have a profile in the area with numerous people knowing who i am and our local membership up 40% seems a win to us
I’m sure you did Bill. And I enjoy being in the ALP, where it is perfectly possible to have an influence on party policy or branch activities if you’re prepared to apply yourself.
Peter Fuller, I doubt the current Labor % of absentees will be maintained. There’s no obvious reason why absentees should vote much different to booth voters.
Oh Dear, the Nationals have learned nothing from losing Page and Dawson with the possibility of Flynn too. Now they are going to reelect a tired old leadership to see if they can throw away another couple of seats at the next Federal election.
Incidentally, Seeney would have to be in trouble with the Queensland Nationals state leader wildly claiming his opposition to council amalgamations would win votes in Flynn, Longman and Petrie. Apparently not one voter in all of Queensland believed Seeney’s rhetoric. Under Seeney’s watch the Nats have lost heaps and gained nothing.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/fresh-start-vital-for-nats-joyce/2007/12/01/1196394679534.html
OK Bill, if you will stop making ignorant and unfair remarks about the ALP, I will stop making ignorant and unfair remarks about the Greens. We’re allies now, remember? If Sarah Hanson-Young gets up it will be on our preferences.
Just a correction/qualification to my #909.
In McEwen the AEC has counted 92,230 votes, and total enrolment is 104,509. So, Adam some of your outstanding votes (your source was talking about 14,000) have clearly already been counted.The proportions of absentee as compared to postal & pre-polls among those which remain to be counted will determine how optimistic my calculations prove, along with my assumptions that the 2PP votes continue in the same proportions.
oh yeh i forgot comrade Adam we can show ourselves now as allies. Wink
If the Nats had half a brain they’d tell Bruce Scott to resign and put Joyce into Maranoa at the by-election, then make him leader, and Kay Hull as deputy. Then they’d tell Truss, McGauran and Forrest to retire.
Yeah but not until July next year, before then we can block the lot lol and even so you’ll need the Greens FF or Mr X to pass legislation lol now your policies will have a tinge of extremism that even Mr Conservative Rudd will cringe at!
Anybody who seriously thinks the Greens will become a Major Party in the future as that recent news article explained are as deluded as Adolf Hitler in der Bunker proclaiming that Wenck will come.
Lord Nelson is on Insiders tomorrow on the ABC at 9am.
Something tells me Lord Nelson won’t receive as much media sympathy as Kevin Rudd did in his first year as Opposition Leader, especially since the Media looked stupid for saying Turnbull was the favourite who then went on to lose. It’s no secret that the Media want Turnbull as our leader so they’ll be darn harsh on Brendan but hey.
917
Adam – I agree with you on the Nats. They need more youth in the leadership if they are to survive.
On McEwen, I think absentee voters could indeed be different to booth voters because there’s a big cross-over in Nth Melb, where it’s possible that people can vote in close neighbouring electorates, such as Scullin and Jagajaga. This is a strong Labor area. On the other hand, the rest of the seat is rural, and so there’s not much possibiility of people crossing over into conservative neighbouring electorates at the other ends.
Adam,
The curse of being a slow typist is that I didn’t see your #912, before I submitted my #915. You’re probably right, in that the absentees already counted may be that set that should have been lodged as normal votes in a joint booth. The only other figure I can throw in to confuse the issue, is that as the count has gone from 84.46% – 88.25%, the margin has narrowed by 246. Is it unrealistic to assume that such a progression (”the narrowing”) might continue as we push towards 95% or whatever the ultimate turn-out proves to be.
Bill Weller, next time you are in Brisbane get yourself down to Minnippi Parkland on the southside of Brisbane and check out the damage that developers have done to the ponds there that used to be tidal. If the Greens and Labor can’t combine to tip Gridlock Campbell and his Liberal councillors out of Brisbane City Council then Parklands like this will continue to be denigrated in a near criminal manner.
My contacts tell me Sarah is a wee bit dizzy,she was interviewed on ABC radio with Bob Brown and said about 2 words,Nicole Cornes would out perform Sarah.
Glen, I’m afraid that you’re wrong in saying that Labor will need Greens, FF or Nick X to pass legislation. On current trends in the Senate, Labor is going to need ALL three of them. It’s my one disappointment with this election, but Labor gets what they deserved when the preferenced Family First in Vic in 2004. However, Glen, don’t get too cocky; if Labor wins the next election, the Lib/Nats will be down to 36, and no FF automatically, as 2004 Senators will be up for re-election.
#
923
DOGS Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 8:58 pm
My contacts tell me Sarah is a wee bit dizzy,she was interviewed on ABC radio with Bob Brown and said about 2 words,Nicole Cornes would out perform Sarah.
I didn’t hear it but she ain’t no dizzy
The Greens wont get anywhere until they force through MMP or PR.
I’m not being cocky but rather stating a fact, vary rarely do governments win outright control of the Senate, though i believe Rudd is getting a bit precious saying we should pass everything he wants i mean did Big Kim do that after they got pumped in 1996 nope?
But yes FF will lose their Senate seat in 2010 that’s for sure Lord D, and Nettle did lose her Senate seat
and the Tories won 3 in Victoria, its more than likely to be the case that the ALP don’t have Senate control but rather should they win in 2010 they’ll only have to deal with the Greens rather than all 3 as will be the case next year.
Anyway after seeing what a Senate majority can do to a Government Lord D i doubt some Labor supporters will want such awesome power.
922
steve Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 8:58 pm
Bill Weller, next time you are in Brisbane
The first time i am in Brisbane lol. I have been to Europe but never any further than Melbourne in Australia. Maybe if i go for the senate in the next election and win i can travel. ( but that would be perks and i am against them)
919 [They need more youth in the leadership if they are to survive.]
Glen, the Nationals in Queensland are a spent force. At the Federal level they are losing seats hand over fist and in State parliament they get flogged mercilessly every time parliament sits and do nothing but whinge and whine when parliament isn’t sitting.
Lord D (924) My guess is we won’t need to wait until 2010 if the Senate proves too obstructive. A double dissolution would soon get rid of the bottle neck.
928 Worth a trip up before mid March. As a wise man once said to Gridlock Campbell, beware the ides of March. I am expecting a major Tory shakeout, it is always fun to see.
7 Days since the oinks were smashed ,how sweet it is,has Johnny and the Boss moved in with Pru yet?
The union membership requirement, such as it is/ was, surely only applied to those employed ALP members. Apart from the self employed, unemployed, those on ‘home duties’, and students, there are also retirees who would have left their union on retirement. The CPSU offers associate membership to retired members and presumably other unions and associations do as well, particularly in these difficult times.
BTW, Coalition strategists seem to have forgotten that there are a lot of retirees (particularly the more elderly of them) who were union members in their day and not necessarily Labor voters, let alone active Labor supporters. I was (pleasantly) surprised during the election campaign when an octogenarian monarchist of my acquaintance confided she had been quite offended by the relentless tarring of all unionists as ‘union thugs’ and feared that our ‘fair go’ society had been tarnished. (I’m not sure, however, that the sentiment extended to republicans, boat people and indigenous Australians.)
I had a YouTube of Sarah Hanson-Young speaking, but it isn’t online anymore. She seemed passably articulate to me. I’ve seen dumber Senators. I do hope she’s not a raving Trotskyite like Nettle.
Hi Adam and Bill,
I have just checked in online and am pleased to see that the Greens/Labor alliance is in good shape.
I think we have to accept that as Minor as we are, Labor needs us Adam.
But let me add that no sweeter moment has been had than seeing the Libs go down to Kevin.
Life will be complete if Labor lets go of their marriage to Gunns and stops that pulp mill.
I’d love to see Pete show some courage.
No Adam she not anywhere close to where i am politically so you should like her.
Although after the stab in the back i got from the ACTU i am now starting to think more in the center.
Bill
What happened with the ACTU and what do you think of Rudd.
does anyone have a number for how many seats were won by the ALP after relying on green preferences?
I can’t work it out by looking at the AEC website..
I have a soft spot for the greens since my dear Ol’ papa was the greens candidate in a south melbourne seat a few elections back
bill
what did the ACTU do to you??
(We got amazing support in Victoria)
Mr Squiggle-
have to say that you saying you have a soft spot for the Greens is a slight shock.
we have allies in the most unlikely places!
Bill you should be grateful you’re not going to get a nuclear power plant at Port Stanvac.
940
jen Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 9:33 pm
bill
what did the ACTU do to you??
(We got amazing support in Victoria
I was told that i would be given a split ticket with the ALP due to my militant union beliefs and contacts. A week before the election i find out i was put at 3 on the YR@W card. I contacted the ACTU to see why but i have been given the run around. I am not a union boss so i don’t deserve their support
Just thinking of the Peter Garrett and Penny Wong sitch… whilst i reckon theres no doubt Peter is passionate and knowledgable about the environment, he’s still an abrasive communicator and would no doubt piss a few people off un intentionally in his path. This is why Penny got the gig with CC and Water IMO. How much will the CC portfolio spill over into foreign affairs and what are peoples thoughts on Stephen Smith in this role? either way the garrett wong & smith shows seems a bit more legit than turnbull & downer who had different agendas and probably hated each other.
Squiglle
I’ve had a browse through the seats and it seems that the greens are a major factor, quite a few seats on the 2PP equal green + labor, with the libs getting FF and CDP.
FF actuaaly made a difference between a comfortable win and a landslide.
There maybe a Melbcity or a Poosum who will download the csv files to do the analysis you are asking.
Bill
Who was no 2
Sorry, can’t put much faith in Alister Drysdale’s analysis (liberal comeback stopped dead in tracks by Jackiegate) if he asserts Nelson, Turnbull & Abbott are all “members of the NSW Right Faction.
Turnbull a member of any faction? Other than the Turnbull Faction?
Turnbull, spruiking Kyoto & Sorry – member of NSW Right?
I don’t think so.
#
# Adamon 01 Dec 2007 at 9:40 pm
Bill you should be grateful you’re not going to get a nuclear power plant at Port Stanvac.
We are. now to stop the extension of the expressway the desal plant and housinfg expansion in the wrong areas. Just a few issues we will be tackling.
A democrat with no union membership
Seats Labor won on Green preferences: Bennelong, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Lowe, Macquarie, Page, Parramatta, Richmond, Robertson, Sydney (NSW), Bendigo, Chisholm, Corangamite, Corio, Deakin, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Melbourne Ports (Vic), Blair, Bonner, Dawson, Flynn, Leichhardt, Longman, Moreton, Petrie (Qld), Brand, Fremantle, Hasluck, Perth (WA), Adelaide, Hindmarsh, Kingston, Wakefield (SA), Bass, Braddon, Denison, Franklin, Lyons (Tas), Solomon (NT), plus any others we win.
cobber,
on the face of it I am thinking that given the Kyoto negotiations must involve China then the added diplomastic bonus of Penny is much like Kevin’s mandorin proficiency – it has to be to our advantage.
And Garrett is mud with tthe environmental groups right now. If he ditches the pulp mill all will be forgiven.
so Adam -
do you love us now?
Doing this has caused many members of the AMWU in my workplace to ask me to start up a new union so we can leave this one. Personally the ACTU can stick it and i will never do the work i did for them in this election. When they decide that they need people on the streets again i will not be one of them
Bill, you can’t have it both ways. If you want union support, join the ALP. Dead simple.
As a Labor supporter , I luv & appreciate the Greens
The Greens are publicly of repeatedly of their ‘general’ support of ALP over LCP
BUT when will Labor/Greens get the message through to the Public that
Family First gives all its preferences to the LCP but does NOT highlight this fact
Why because the ‘name’ of the Party attracts ALL families & I believe alot
of marginal Labor or Greens voters give their ist or 2nd preference to Family First on the Party ‘name’ without realising they are a right wing Party
Except for the WA ANF with the odious Mark Olson.
Adam,
that’s crap.You do not have to join the ALP.
The Greens in Vic got public support from teh ETU, the Fireies, the Nurses and Sharron Buuows was a ket speaker at the Greens State conference, publicly supporting our stand on repealing Workchoices.
I thnk the Greens have become more Labor than Labor .
(PS what happened to the ‘U’ -as in LaboUr?? as in Work.)
Bill
Why on earth did they do that, internal politics, personalities. I’ve been on both sides of the fence as a union rep and a employer and seen the best and worst of both.
The worst union reps were bullies who did not even know their own award, the worst bosses were those that kept a list of employees they wanted to sack or had sacked and ticked each off.
One persons actions or incident should not affect us though it does, so I would encourage you to stick with the unions and the ACTU.
Funny thing about the unions is that the reps are elected in a ballot so you can also get right wing reps, I think a liberal candidate was actually a union rep.
And when you get down to it unions are democracy in action in that if you don’t like the way you are represented you can vote them out.
that would be …The eTu. the Firies, sharron Burrows. and key note.
Note – i am not driving a car tonight. for good reason it would seem, if my typing is any indication.
My top ten predictions for the new term of parliament:
1. Brendan Nelson will be incredibly unpopular, Kevin Rudd will be wildly popular. For at least the first 18 months.
2. Kevin Rudd will govern as a centrist in the hope of getting a big landslide in 2010. Shades of Hawke c.1984. Hence nothing radical only more spending on education and health.
3. The unions will be offered a transition bill in Jan/Feb and told the next wave of reform will be contingent on a 2010 win.
4. A 4 year term referendum will be supported by both parties in 2010.
5. The State governments will block any federalism reforms.
6. Rudd will end up running against the States in 2010.
7. Wayne Swan will be under sustained attack as Treasurer by the Gillard forces with a view to Gillard replacing him after 2010 and positioning her for the leadership.
8. We will be debating whether we are in “technical” recession by Christmas 2009.
9. Bill Shorten and Greg Combet will be in Cabinet no later than the 2010 election.
10. Malcolm Turnbull will lead the Libs into the 2010 election after making certain promises to the Howard loyalists.
Esj, you’ve done it again it was the next ten that we were really interested in.
ESJ – and I thought LTEP was a pessimist.
Ron
What you said about FF is spot on, they are just an offshooot of the libs abd Fred Niles CDP and will fade away eventually, I think many did not realise wher there vote ended up.
The libs saved seats because of One Nation and FF.
StanS, I don’t think you would have an argument with either myself or my shrink mate. My father was a chippie, his father was a railway engineer in India. Both of us, as the rest of the team I lead, are solid. I guess my query is more about how to beter organise and ener