What I don’t know about the Liberal Party could fill a warehouse, but most of the prescriptions outlined by Michael Kroger on Sky News on Tuesday accord with my prejudices:
The organisational wings around the country need to be reformed immediately, particularly in relation to the branch structure and preselections. There’s a lot of things that can be done, very quickly. The party is in a terrible electoral position, but it can very quickly put itself into a fantastic position. This is not a five or ten year repair job. You could actually fix all the organisational and structural problems in the Liberal Party within 12 months if you had the will to do it, and make whoever the incoming leader is in a fantastic position to fight the next federal election in three years’ time. But what tends to happens is people retreat to their corners, they want to protect their own power bases and nothing happens. It requires some strong decision-making from the senior people to fix this thing, they can fix it in 12 months … The branch structure is 60 years old and even though the branch members still do a fantastic job, it’s the structure, not the branch members, it’s the structure which is drowning us. We’ve got probably 500 people in the Victorian Liberal Party whose job is as honorary auditor … There need to be branch amalgamations, we need to base the party around state or federal electorates, you need to broaden the base of people voting in preselections, you need to have perhaps a senior committee of senior party people who have the final say over preselections to rubber stamp the selections, you’ve got to stop the petty branch stacking, we should amalgamate with the National Party, we should give the federal party some more power a little like the ALP does, we should make it a federalist party and not just individual states, we need to totally revamp the fundraising within the organisation and we need to give the federal executive some power … you just can’t have situations where five or 10 or 20 people can stack a few branches and take over a safe Liberal Party seat and preselect a C-grade candidate and be happy with that. I pay credit to the Labor Party for some of the candidates they preselected, I don’t like their politics, but the fact is in various places they strong-armed some tired old members out, put some new people in who may or may not succeed but on the face of it some of them have got very good credentials for parliament. That’s the way you have to operate in politics. To leave these things to the branch-stackers is a recipe for disaster.
Malcolm Turnbull – wealthy, assertive, independently powerful – struck me as being just the man for the job outlined by Kroger. Perhaps the party room knows better. Or perhaps, to use Kroger’s formulation, they have signalled an intention to retreat to their corners and protect their own power bases, and nothing will happen.
Recommended reading: Alister Drysdale of the Business Spectator reports that both parties’ internal polling showed a late Coalition recovery that was stopped dead in its tracks by the Lindsay pamphlet disgrace. It’s also argued that the fake Jeff Kennett letter regarding proposed funding cuts to the states had the same impact during the last week of the 1996 campaign. I personally do not imagine that either incident was single-handedly decisive, but this is not the first report to emerge of a sharp shift in party tracking polling following Jackie Kelly’s infamous “Chaser-style prank” interview of last Wednesday. There’s also a very intriguing article on the Liberal Party’s late-term leadership ructions from Pamela Williams in today’s Financial Review (subscriber only unfortunately).
1,042 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 14 15 [16] 17 18 … 21 » Show All
Yes 746, the AEC really has to get their act together. Perhaps the new government should have a good look at the administration of this institution, voters have a right to expect that their vote will be allocated expeditiously. I am smelling a dead RAT in all this, we do not want any influence of US dirty tricks here, next they will be talking about hanging chads.
Malcolm Turnbull is the leader in waiting. The extreme right of the Libs need to do a bit more damage until they finally handover the reins to Malcolm who will lead the Liberal party to a noble defeat (as he always does) at the 2010 election.
No I can go back to sleep.
The weird thing about that Australian scoop on Turnbull berating Nelson for being ‘funereal’ is that it must have been leaked by Nelson or his supporters. So we have a pushy-tough guy Turnbull spitting the dummy in defeat, and a meek Nelson team briefing the press to undermine Turnbull from day 2.
Rudd-Gillard will last I’d say 5 years; Nelson-Turnbull will be lucky to make 2.
Haneef inquiry to be “expandeded” according to this news article. Apparently a judicial inquiry has been slated by the ALP, but McClelland has hinted at a broader inquiry. How many Team rodent members have skeletons in the cupboard?
doh – expandeded = expanded (does that mean that expandeded is the expanded version of expanded?)
So now we have a f##### cry-baby in the top job, just wait until our bovver-boys, hardened in the factions, get stuck in. We will give the little twat something to really blubber about. Haneef, AWB, Siev X et al, oh the humanity.
Nobody, and I repeat (for added emphasis, and a moment to think across this wide brown land, who else?) nobody examines the body politic with more forensic detail and then reports the findings with such blunt incisiveness. Here’s Alan Ramsay in the SMH today:
“In one of the more brutal political squelches of recent years, even the old Treasury mandarin, John Stone, a former National Party Senate leader, was moved to say of Nelson: “He reminds me of Andrew Peacock without the substance.” Nelson’s absurd elevation, by so narrow a margin (45 votes to 42), only makes sense if you accept that sooner or later either Turnbull or Abbott will eat him. Not immediately, of course, but inevitably.”
…Andrew Peacock without the substance! Yes, but Horatio Hornet did have the cheque book, unfortunately.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/look-left-look-right-look-/2007/11/30/1196394619997.html
Just how did Stewart Mcarthur get a vote in the Liberal Leadership challenge.
Latest election results show Stewart living the seat of Corangamite. I guess John Howard should have also been allowed to vote in that reckoning.
Andrew Landeryou has reported a likely challenge to the legitimacy of the leadership ballot. Instead of a margin of four there will be a margin of one for Turnbull to lead the shatterd remnants of the Liberals’ party reps.
I wonder what Old Ironbar and the Junee Heifer were thinking when Lord Nelson was bawling his eyes out.
Watch your back, Brendan.
Fagin, jeez can you imagine, I would love to have seen the Heifer’s face, it would be priceless. Definitely worth a thousand words hahahaha, oh ffs, my sides are splitting.
758 Wouldn’t it be funny if the usual suspects who won money on the election, and won again when Horatio Hornet beat the merchant banker, win again soon when Horatio is rolled. Oh, the comedy that the Liberal Party produces.
Has anyone had a close look at the counting in Calare?
Does anyone know about Green preferences in Calare?
If they preference the independent Priestley ahead of the ALP candidate then there is still a chance that the independent will get that seat. If he gets ahead of the ALP then John Cobb might have some cause for concern
Wilson Tuckey faces a similar conundrum in O’Connor. Again it all depends on the Green preferences. If they have been tactical in how to votes and if the National candidate has a green tinge and gets ahead of the ALP then it could be ian interesting count.
Both scenarios not likely but on the figures the possibility exsts
Is there a betting market on how many days Horatio lasts, might get me some of that.
“Horatio Hornet”
That’s bloody brilliant
The swings to Labor in SA are instructive. It would seem that Karen Lock in Barker and Karin Bolton in Grey should have received extra help from the ALP rather than Nicole Cornes in Boothby and Mia Handshin in Sturt. Here are the swings to Labor:
10.39 Barker
9.62 Grey
8.57 Makin
7.58 Wakefield
7.23 Port Adelaide
7.00 Adelaide
6.50 Mayo
5.56 Sturt
4.86 Hindmarsh
4.59 Kingston
2.33 Boothby
Country areas an the northern suburbs swung most, the southern suburbs least.
Many of my favourite candidates lost, including Nicole Cornes, Mia Handshin, Peter Tinley, Rodney Cocks and maybe Geroge Colbran. But Mike Kelly delivered!
Doug,
Although I cannot stand him, I sincerely hope that Wilson Tuckey holds O’Connor.
Ironbar’s fuse is lit; stand back and watch the show!
764 [“Horatio Hornet”
That’s bloody brilliant]
Don’t blame me, it was kirribilli Removals brilliant mind that came up with that one.
Do you guys remember when Downer was elected as liberals leader? Keating absolutely ripped him to shreds. It proved to be a huge mistake cause Howard took over and then became PM.
The labor party must be ruthless and not even give a billimetre. Go easy on Brendan(never voted liberal in my life)Nelson. It’s safer than having Turnbull there.
What about Bishop? She may eventually get to partner with, liberals going through leaders, as many as Debbie Does Dallas.
Doug @ 762, the other independant, Windsor, tips calare to be closer than people think. Be nice to see Preistley get up – especially at the expense of Cobb.
“With 82% of the votes counted now on Friday night on a two party preferred basis that is something over 730,000 votes cast for the House of Reps”
Huh?
http://wmmbb.wordpress.com/2007/11/30/election-landslide/
View from a disendorsed Liberal. Funny cartoon too.
http://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/node/5591
Maxine says Bennelong is firmly hers. ABC Radio.
ABC on line.
McKew declares victory in Bennelong
Last update: 01:53:51 30/11/2007
One week after election day high-profile Labor recruit Maxine McKew has claimed victory in the northern Sydney seat of Bennelong, held by John Howard for the past 33 years.
The AEC does in fact provide a tally board of the number of postal votes issued and returned, unfortunately this information is not available in the data feeds or in an easy to get a central location. You have to open each of the 150 division sites… Which will involve a screen scraper. Two more hours work.
There is no such information on the Senate stats and the senate polling Place results are still not available. Anyone scrutinising the close counts would want to make a comparison with the senate results to make sure all votes are accounted for. Count updates are now very very slow..
What a wonderful day.
Horation Hornet is good. Horation Hankyblower also has a certain aptness.
Are you kidding? That 70 year old corpse from Corrangamite was allowed to vote in the Liberal leadership ballot, even though it’s very likely he’s lost his seat?
Turnball ought to ask for another ballot.
I thought someone said the slapper was retired. Unfortunately she just seems to be having a holiday and writing the odd piece to justify it as a working holiday apparently. Maybe just popping in on some strikes and riots in Paris to sharpen up the skills for the next election.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/election_debacle_doesnt_devalue_crucial_triumphs
Steve 778
Apart from the rest of Albrechtsen’s jet slag, this is correct:
‘Howard cemented his personal philosophy that individuals make better choices’
There’s been a big turn-around in McEwen. Latest update shows Fran Bailey ahead by just 122 votes, with absentees running over 61% to Labor. Latest update on Flynn has Labor 636 votes ahead and looking safe. Robertson still tight, the much-maligned Belinda Neal is just 296 ahead.
Rob Mitchell now only 122 votes behind in McEwan.
Couple of thoughts:
If you just look at the AEC (no inside knowledge or anything), there’s no reason to think Calare or O’Connor is settled yet. O’Connor there are no absents, pre-polls or postal results published yet, and Calare the Independent is running at 30% on these which means he is likely to overtake Labor and win, if the current trend continues.
Most of the Liberal Party (outside WA) would surely be cheering on the Nats in O’Connor. And the ALP would have to be cheering for Tuckey.
And Turnbull, in my view, will lead the Liberals to the next election. Nelson looks like a patsy, and I’m sure there’d be people who voted for him this time just to try to keep Turnbull’s ego in check.
Re: McEwen – could this be the mysterious 3,000 missing votes finally being counted?
To William Bowe
Statistical Forecast of the 9 doubtful seats
please advise if the mehodology below is ok
By seat:
I calculated the no. of votes uncounted in each voter type ,
deducted the variable informal vote % in each voter type ,
calculated the net votes uncounted per voter type & applied the 2PP % vote on counted votes todate for each voter type
I assumed ALL ‘provisional’ votes were excluded which had the effect of
treating any ‘Provisional’ votes that were counted as an ‘ordinary’ vote
I assumed 100% did vote …but won’t)
Flynn ALP + 804
Solomon ALP – 79
Robertson ALP +114
Swan ALP -316
Bowman ALP + 29
Herbert ALP -268
Dickson ALP -149
McEwan ALP -239
La Trobe ALP -452
This is an interesting thing to say on behalf of a P.M. who increased transfer payments by $90 billion.
Basil. In spite the obvious shortcomings in reporting the election results I find the AEC to be a far more responsible and efficient organisation then the State electoral authorities. Just look at Victoria and Steve Tully’s effort to cover up their stuff up.. Details of the State election are still unpublished a year later.
Having indicated that I intended to make a submission and complaint about the management of the Victorian election, Steve Tully vexatiously removed my name from the Victorian voters list and falsely lodged a complaint with the Victorian department of Justice. How dutifuly followed up on his complaint only to latyer abanmdon it. Tully has become the laughing joke of the electoral council and does not even know his own act. A follow up complaint is on the way to the State Parliament. I would have complained to the Ombudsman but Tully is exempt from any review by the Ombudsman.
I do not expect Tully’s contract to be renewed lol
Overall I think the AEC has done a good job.
Another McEwen update. Rob Mitchell only 98 behind.
Labor only down by 98 votes in McEwen
PM it is apparently closer. 4000 absentees to be counted this afternoon. Another 1000 odd on Monday. And there are another 4000 floating around in late postals etc for next week.
The other result likely to come out of the count is sexual harrassment charges against a Liberal scrutineer for allegedly inappropriate behaviour.
MCEWEN Latest figures Updated: 1/12/2007 12:29:26 PM
BAILEY, Fran Liberal 43,206 50.08 56.42 -6.34
MITCHELL, Rob Australian Labor Party 43,072 49.92 43.58 +6.34
The Liberal Party of Australia (ALP) has become a narrow mined negative thinking lazy one-dimensional reactionary Party.
The Howard Government while generally a good Government the above paragraph can describe it.
While all Governments have preferred lobbyist the Howard Govt was quick to dismiss criticism with the following “Your a Lefty’ based on this premise that would make me a Lefty which also showed the Howard Government wasn’t in touch with its own Heartland.
While its true Australians by nature are more conservative its important to recognize that compared to Americans they are more Socially Liberal but how did Howard handle this.
Howard on several occasions came out with policies which were clearly not thought out and the evidence for this was the way Howard did several back-flips and the way in which he sold the policies.
Howard seemed to Govern for the ACA/TT crowd lets take Welfare when Work-for-the Dole was announced then Victorian premier Jeffrey came out on 3AW with a very sensible idea of including a training component Howard dismissed it.
Howard then ran a Disability Employment network in a Socialist manner which made it harder for people on DSP to find a real Job, then blamed them for his policy failure.
Howard sat on 2 Million unemployed or underemployed doing nothing to enhance their skill base.
Howard was correct that no one wants their house value to be lowered but at the same time many people who are in full-time employment and while on good incomes are faced with increased rents or interest rates while the Govt has invented Workchoices which was Economic madness that you would expect from the ALP.
Which in the real world could have stifled wage growth therefore consumer spending therefore business profits therefore economic growth therefore Government revenue.
Howard while can came credit for the GST, East Timor and Gun control he deserves no praise for the way he lead the Liberal Party.
The best Liberal PMs are out right Leftwing compared to Howard.
Deakin, Menzies, Gorton
Can the Liberal party recover of course it will but just like the ALP it needs to keep an eye on its extreme wings and one other thing and I must thank Kevin Rudd can never hear about Class based envy again for no one in voterland gives a stuff about Unions or Left vs Right wing for all we the Voters want is a good sensible honest Government.
The Liberal Party needs to not make excuses for it has a set of poor policies, has a very poor membership and as someone earlier listed the Victorian branch principles which clearly the Liberals didn’t base their policies around, The Liberal Party deserves to be out of office until it comes to quips with the notice that we the Voters want a Government which delivers a good healthy economy, maintains Law and Order in a fair and balanced manner and as a Government is honest accountable and professional again for the party of individual freedom the attack on Gillard’s private life was pathetic, ‘yes heffernan’.
Interesting to speculate on Nelson’s longevity in the job. Its legit to do so in a way I don’t think it would be if Malcolm had found those 3 votes. If Lib polling is tanking around 12 months out of the next election? That points to some frantic re-positioning to get close to what Mega George called the ‘fulcrum’ of the electorate (moderately conservative but essentially tolerant).
Charlie @ 783
The ‘mysterious 3000 votes’ turned out to be the 2070 absentees now counted, which were added to the AEC website Thursday night. They apparently all came from one booth in Scullin which probably should have been a shared booth by all accounts.
This morning’s improvement in the ALP’s position in McEwan comes entirely from an additional 1000 postals. Prior to today postals had shown almost no swing to Labor at all, so the natural order of things appears to be reasserting itself – which is a good sign for Labor.
We should have a better idea by the end of today about McEwan as the story is that 4000 absentees are scheduled for counting this afternoon.
What a fantastic day.
NOW I feel relaxed and comfortable!!
I know I wasn’t the only one who was too frightened to express their REAL emotions and won’t until the new govt is sworn in.
Still can’t trust the remnants.
785 ShowsOn
‘This is an interesting thing to say on behalf of a P.M. who
increased transfer payments by $90 billion’.
Voting choices, ShowsOn.
Shall I do it yet?
I reckon ESJ is Janet Albrechtsen – more of Fifth Columnist – I’d say.
Are you changing to daylight saving? William?
By the way, the name of the seat is McEwen.
It’s not only in McEwen that the ALP is doing better in absentees after being bludgeoned in the pre-polls and postals. As the absentees are being counted later than them this means that Labor candidates are coming back in many marginals. If the same pattern is occurring in all seats then the overall 2pp should start to rise slightly again.
Pages: « 1 … 14 15 [16] 17 18 … 21 » Show All