There are no fewer than seven seats which are still too close to call a week after polling day, with less than 0.3 per cent separating the two parties. The AEC’s official Close Seats list further includes Flynn and La Trobe, but these are all but certain to respectively go with Labor and Liberal. Corangamite briefly popped on to the list a few days ago, but it’s gone now. Two other seats that could be of at least theoretical interest come the preference count are O’Connor and Calare. In O’Connor, Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner (18.37 per cent) has a vague hope of getting ahead of Labor (20.42 per cent) on preferences from, among others, the Greens (6.68 per cent), and then overcoming Liberal member Wilson Tuckey (45.25 per cent) on Labor preferences. Similarly, in Calare the independent candidate Gavin Priestley (23.73 per cent) might be able to overcome Labor (24.84 per cent) with preferences from the Greens (2.60 per cent) and the Citizens Electoral Council (0.94 per cent, which was boosted by a donkey vote that will flow on to Labor) and then, just maybe, within spitting distance of John Cobb of the Nationals (47.89 per cent). For some reason only ordinary votes have been counted to this point in O’Connor.
Bowman. Labor’s Jason Young narrowly led Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming from election night until Tuesday when Laming got his nose in front on pre-polls, but this has proved to be the only close electorate where postals have favoured Labor. Young recovered the tiniest of leads and has inched slowly ahead to his current lead of 116 votes.
Herbert. Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay leads by just 60 votes, and I have unconfirmed reports that only provisional votes remain to be counted. Last time provisionals favoured Lindsay 279-257: if there’s the same number this time and they swing the same way as the rest, Colbran will close the gap by 45 votes and lose by 15.
McEwen. Another seat where Labor was ahead on election night, but postals put Liberal incumbent Fran Bailey a very handy 502 votes up on Monday. That looked like it might be enough, but a remarkably good partial count of absent votes pulled it into 111 yesterday. Further counting of pre-polls then pushed her lead out to 150.
Solomon. Labor’s Damian Hale was a full 1.0 per cent ahead on election night, but late factors such as overseas Defence Force votes have steadily whittled it down to 262 votes, or 0.3 per cent. That leaves some hope for CLP incumbent Dave Tollner, though Hale should probably get up.
Swan. Labor incumbent Kim Wilkie had a 134-vote lead on election night, but has since had to watch as each new batch of votes has delivered a few dozen votes to Liberal candidate Steve Irons, who currently leads by 239 and is looking increasingly likely to emerge as the only Liberal candidate to topple a sitting Labor MP.
Dickson. Labor’s Fiona McNamara had reason to feel confident about her 425-vote lead on election night, but a strong performance on postals by Liberal member Peter Dutton pushed him 268 votes ahead on Wednesday. The seat has since provided Labor with some rare late count good news, absents and pre-polls reeling in the lead in to just 106.
Robertson. This one hadn’t been on my watch list, with Labor candidate Belinda Neal holding a formidable 1094 vote lead on election night. However, Liberal member Jim Lloyd has kept whittling away Neal’s lead, once again being boosted by postals which have gone 58-42 in his favour. Neal’s lead is now just 273 – too close to comfort, but probably just enough.
To illustrate the recurring theme of Liberal comebacks, here is a table comparing party support by type of vote cast for 2004 and 2007, bearing in mind that the 2007 figures are still incomplete. While there was a slightly better performance by the Coalition in declaration votes across the board, it does seem they have managed to produce their best results on postals where it has mattered most.
| ORDINARY | ABSENT | PRE-POLL | POSTAL | |||||||||||||
| 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | |||||||||
|
Labor
|
44.0 | 38.3 | 5.8 | 39.3 | 34.0 | 5.4 | 41.1 | 34.9 | 6.2 | 40.2 | 34.4 | 5.9 | ||||
|
Coalition
|
41.7 | 46.5 | -4.8 | 40.8 | 44.2 | -3.4 | 45.3 | 48.3 | -3.0 | 49.2 | 52.9 | -3.7 | ||||
|
Greens
|
7.6 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | -1.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 0.1 | ||||
683 Comments
The AEC rates a seat as “close” when the progressive TPP is in the range 49.5-50.5, no matter what the stage of the count. A possibly better way, especially at a late stage of the count, is to set a criterion based on the believable variation that could still occur in the remaining count to cause the lead to swap. On the average, at this election, the TPP in the non-booth vote has varied from the booth vote by about 2.5%. With this as a criterion, the only undecided seat is McEwen- and here I still think there’s something wrong with the Absent votes, which are 20% out of whack with the postals. McEwen has one of the highest enrollments of any seat and there seem to be some 12,000 left to count if the turn-out and formal %ages follow history. The gap last night was 396 and the possible deviation in the remaining numbers is about this size.
If McEwen stays with the Coalition, that will leave the ALP with 84 seats and William with the kewpie doll. Well done.
According to the AEC, in Dickson there are 1685 absent, 711 pre-poll and 668 postal remaining to count. As Fiona is only trailing by 106, it does look like a remote possibility for Labor, now that the postals are largely out of the way.
If only…
we could have all voted again yesterday (1/12) now the flimsy ediface of the liberal party has collapsed. I suspect plenty of marginal seat voters would easily cast a different vote (i.e. not LNP) to give themselves a new member in KR’s government rather than a member in a strife torn Liberal opposition. As yes… if only.
How quickly has a sense of competence and capability about the incoming government spread among the populace? The rapid shift in sentiment by MSM to acknowledge the new government’s potential for achievement is, to say the least, refreshing.
In future let’s hope the politics of fear is killed off completely because those voters motivated by irrational or uniformed fear – heavily influence, or worse still, decide elections.
Is it asking too much that elections be about a contest of ideas, and the individual and collective calibre of people standing for election??
Just a housekeeping point of order. Am I the only one for whom comments now default to all on the same page? Used to be (up until around dinner last evening) that comments defaulted to the most recent page and you could page back to find older ones. Now they are all appearing on one page and if you want to find anything other than the beginning you are forced to page down all the way through the list. Most recent thread besides this new one had 4 digits worth of comments and even at holding down the page down button on the mouse in the right margin it took forever to get down the bottom.
Julie, it appears that the comments numbering facility has disappeared, obviously a glitch.
Country Kid, couldn’t agree more with your comment concerning politics of fear. I live in McPherson electorate, where we have a useless time-server Lib Margaret May. Her opponent was Eddie Saroff (I think of Lebanese descent) who has been a tireless campaigner on the Gold Coast City Council. Would have made an excellent contribution to Kev’s team. Apparently a lot of moron voters were heard to remark that they would not vote for that ‘towel head’ even though they normally voted Labor. Such is the legacy of john howard, bush and the rest of that evil gang. It will take a long time to heal. Whatever happened to the flickering light of tolerance that started under previous Labor administrations? We have a collective responsibility now to begin reconciliation, especially with our Indigenous brothers and sisters.
Basil, I also live on the Gold Coast (Moncrieff) and you are quite right about Eddie. The Libs have very safe seats up here largely because Labor does not invest much money in challenging them, and we are (still?) the yob capital of Australia as a result. Hoons rule.
Mind you, with the Murdoch media monopoly on news up here (he even owns the Gold Coast Sun, a free weekly) it’s no wonder non-Coalition candidates get no proper coverage.
Also, it’s a pity that Howard has not graciously conceded Bennelong, given we all know he doesn’t want it anyway. Too busy stealing all the silverware from Kirribilli House, it seems…
Yeah, the last thread, with over 1000 posts became impossible.
William, time to get out the spanners.
Country Kid, you are so right! Watching the “TEAM” (Reg. Trade Mark) unravel with such incredible velocity demonstrates perfectly how poisonous was the relationship between Howard and Costello and how it had infected the entire party.
Talk about a fish rotting from the head!
What gets me, is that the GG and it’s many emulators spent so much effort papering over the cracks, applying the lipstick to the pig, and did whatever it took not to expose it for what it was, ie terminal. Too busy fluffing Costello as the best treasurer in the known universe (as if!), and Howard as the Great Leader and ‘consumate’ politician, the MSM virtually became the PR arm of the government.
The MSM is so enamored of its role in what I call ‘myth making’ that it just disregards any pretence of reporting the facts. I suppose it will ultimately happen with this next government too, the incumbent gets to steer the ship and all who travel on her go for the ride. Heading off in a lifeboat in a different direction is a brave exercise. (I liked Alan Ramsey’s take on the Howard government, he told it like it was, not how the MSM portrayed it, and he was constantly abused as a “Howard Hater” by the ‘respectable’ journos who ar$elicked the government at every opportunity).
But no longer! The final curtain has fallen from the gantry and we get to see the remaining cast of this dysfunctional charade without the costumes of government, the grease paint is smeared, the wigs askew, and they are getting stuck into each other for the lousy performance.
Truly, life is but a stage as the great man said!
Kirribilli – I agree, sensible posters only!
Labor on 80 in the end – and well beaten in 2010.
Yes Gandhi, sad but true. I thought that the serf choices factor with our high hospitality and casualised workforce would be enough, coupled with the uselessness of May as a member. We did get a swing of about 5% from memory, but nowhere near the margin required. We cannot now complain if Labor proceeds to ignore the Gold Coast in any allocation of funding. I suppose mrs rat is now chaining herself to the ballustrading in a last desperate attempt to delay proceedings, cut off her arm say I.
Basil, I like to think a good many people have already realised the mistake they made by casting a vote based on fear. And that this sentiment will spread as the new government really does ‘change the direction of the country’ – for the better – so that JWH’s last fear/wedge tactic will be blown away.
In an intersting twist I have found myself feeling ‘relaxed and comfortable’ since the 24/11/07, just eleven & a half years after JWH coined the term.
Ave it 07, self-delusion is a wonderful thing, I hope you and yours keep it up, it will make our job even easier in 2011
Cont’d (kind of)…
Not that the MSM learn anything, their reflexes are so ingrained that like a dog returning to its vomit we get this from inimitable Miranda Devine:
Nelson is an impressive politician, whose courteous manner disguises a steely resolve. He has a gift for communicating, using homespun anecdotes from real life to appeal to people’s better natures. It strikes a chord.
…hmm, is that the very same Horatio Hornet we’ve seen screaming to a crowd about never voting Liberal in his life? Is that the very same one that nearly put Kezza to sleep on the 7.30 Report the other night? The same HH that Malbull nearly gored after his almost funeral acceptance ’speech’ in the party room? Is it the same one who signed a cheque for $6,000,000,000 without telling anyone important enough to know what a crap decision it was? (Now, that’s what I call a gift for communicating…NOT!)
Yeah Miranda, it strikes a chord, a ‘dis’chord with reality.
But she gives the game away in the last sentence:
“He would make a wise and compassionate prime minister if ever he had the chance.”
Notice the tense! She could have said ‘he will make’ and ‘if he ever gets the chance’, but deep down she knows, and the delicious irony is not missed on us.
Hey Kirribilli, when do you back the truck up to the door?
Actually I tell a lie..
I was relaxed & comfortable for several months before the election – pretty much from the time I cottoned on to Possums Pollytics (might have been around July/August). The numbers just did not lie.
Did I hear that Horatio is on Insiders this morning, wonder if he will cry there also! Must watch, need a good laugh.
LaTrobe is still interesting, though I agree the Libs probably have it. The postals are pretty much all out of the way and both the absentee and pre-polls are favoring Labor with a quite a few thousand left to count by the looks of it. The Lib lead has been reduced to about 550 at present.
Might just depend on where those remaining absentees come from. Certainly likely to be quite a bit closer than it seemed a few days back.
Kirribilli,your writing is a delight and well worth scrolling/lurking for.
Hard to get inspired about Nelson, or to escape the feeling that he is keeping the seat warm for Malcolm.
Isnt it about time you lot got these votes counted????
Geoff, the gap in McEwen was actually down to 122 yesterday, but had opened slightly to 150 after the addition of some more Pre-polls. Unless you have access to some figures beyond those available on the AEC website I would think that there is now probably a better than 50% chance this will go to Labor if the absentees break just a little better than even for them.
Mind you, I agree that there is something skerwhiff about the count, with some very odd things happening in the declaration vote scrutiny figures.
Basil Fawlty, we’ve been informed that the tenants at K House are on notice, but the old dears are getting on a bit, and will be dithering about for some time yet.
Megan, thanks, ’tis but me blowing off a bit of steam after the longest election campaign in history.
It’s been quite a morning in the Removals household, where I’ve had to shower a three year old after an early morning accident, vacuum the carpet in the play room after a light bulb disintegrated, and herd the kids away from a sleeping wife who’s been burning the midnight oil for her last (hurrah!!!!) exam for her MBA.
Phew, in between all of that it’s great to have a chance to whack the keyboard with indignation at the grotesque excuse of a political party the Liberals have been, and at the twisted sisters that wave the pom poms and show their knickers for them!
Now, must be off. Kids concert to prepare for this afternoon and some lightbulb replacement.
Off Topic, but does anyone have any suggestions for the $160 I won with the free bet (thanks to various people here for the tip) at Sportingbet, backing McKew in Bennelong? I’ve discovered I have to roll it over at least once before extracting it.
I know SFA about sporting events. I was thinking of backing the Indians to win or draw at least one of the first two games in the cricket test series against Australia, but this has come in from $2.25 to $2.10 since I looked at it.
Nelson on insiders trying to show he knew the price of bread, petrol etc said the cash rate was 7.5%. Wrong it’s 6.75%. He’s a flake.
Don’t bet against Australia in cricket, that’s never a good bet.
If you want to stick with politics and take a risk…
Mike Huckabee was paying $20 for the Republican Nomination in the U.S as recently as a week ago, if you can still find that price, it’s great. He’s surging in Iowa, has appeal in the South if he wins Iowa and gets the momentum to win South Carolina and then gets the money to compete on Feb 5 in the big primaries. Giuliani will fall apart and Romney is finished if he doesn’t win Iowa or New Hampshire… Someone has to win it, Thompson is lazy and McCain is broke and hated by the base.
I’d say he’s actually a 5-1 shot at the nomination.
Hmm, he’s not listed. That could be a good sign, especially since Brownback is listed and he has withdrawn from the race, lol, I love it how clueless bookies still have Al Gore there for the Dems too. Anyway, ask them for a quote on Huckabee for the nomination (not the general election, since the Dem will win that). Check out his Chuck Norris ad on Youtube if you need convincing, he makes being a right wing nutjob look reasonable.
Either that or just bet on Melbourne Storm to win their first game of the season in the NRL to extract it, much safer bet than cricket if they’re at home or playing most teams away as well.
Laming has a very impressive CV he would do more good for Australia out of parliament. Flynn looks nice on the map and good to see Labor’s birthplace represented by a Labor MP again. Herbert; perhaps if Labor had run a trade union official instead of a MacDonald’s owner they might have won? Did the polls overstate Labor’s position in Herbert due to military voters os?
To William Bowe
Statistical Forecast of the 9 doubtful seats
please advise if the methodology below is ok
By seat:
I calculated the no. of votes uncounted in each voter type ,
deducted the variable informal vote % in each voter type ,
calculated the net votes uncounted per voter type & applied the 2PP % vote on counted votes todate for each voter type
I assumed ALL ‘provisional’ votes were excluded which had the effect of
treating any ‘Provisional’ votes that were counted as an ‘ordinary’ vote
I assumed 100% did vote …but won’t)
LABOR TO WIN
Flynn ALP + 804
Robertson ALP +319
LCP WIN
Swan ALP -316
Herbert ALP -268
McEwan ALP -239
La Trobe ALP -452
EITHER PARTY TO WIN
Solomon ALP – 79
Bowman ALP + 29
Dickson ALP -149
PS/ the aec site shows McEwen pre polls & postals counted as a HIGHER figure than the envelopes received for pre polls & postals !
(does not affect result as LCP lead these voter types in 2PP anyway)
Just watched Nelson. He is full of hot air. Just appalling. And that’s the best they have.
Gerard Henderson is on Insiders too. What a fool of a man.
Julie,
If you have a PC, you can go to straight to the end by using Control plus End. Can’t remember what it is on my Mac, but there will be an equivalent. Saves all that scrolling!
Thought Julia Gillard good on Meet the Press this morning. Straight talking, and my spin detector wasn’t activated! Couldn’t face up to Nelson on Insiders!
Agree postal vote system needs review, should be off-limits to all except AEC. Seems to have been cleverly used by Libs – I also received official govt envelope with postal vote application and glossy bumph (?spelling) from the Lib hopeful for my strongly Labor seat. Think there was an envelope for a postal vote to be returned via office of said Liberal hopeful. Don’t know if other parties tried the same not-very-subtle trick.
missed insiders …does it get replayed
Friends , if yes….is it worth watching Lord 1/2 Nelson
I probably missed it but does anyone know which of the Liberals in doubt voted in the leadership contest.
There are now 3 videos in my “The Poll That Counts ” series online: Around the booths, Howard Made History and Tallyroom Tension. Working on JWH concession speech as seen by viewers in tallyroom on Saturday night.
‘labor View from Broome’
Ron – audio of insiders replayed on news radio at 11 am sunday
Oliver: I agree, and posted on this a few days back. Rudy’s toxic, and the Mormon (with one silent ‘m’) is not a goer. McCann you’ve not done it to do again, and the rest are even more woeful.
Huck’s a very good outside chance ONLY if his past doesn’t catch up with him:
women (he’s a pants man in the Clinton tradition)
lose with money (especially other peoples’)
nasty bit of work (what do you expect from the US ‘priestly’ caste?)
Apart from that, a fine Republican choice.
Don’t let the ‘aw shucks’ fool ya, he is a thoroughly unsavoury man, which kind of makes him a VERY good bet in a funny kind of way.
Nelson had another hilarious moment. Not quite as good at the ‘portrait of Neville Bonner’ one, but just as odd. Something about being a nuts and bolts salesman at uni.??? He loves a non-sequitur or two in his responses. Maybe he’s pushing for the eccentric vote.
Danny — have a look on sportingbet and pick anything with odds of 1.15 or less. That way you can be pretty confident that you won’t lose your winnings, and you don’t need to know anything about the sport you are betting on.
Alternatively, if you don’t mind losing about 4-5% of your $160 you could split your money and bet on both sides of a two horse race. That way you are guaranteed of keeping around $150. Try betting on basketball or one day cricket (avoid test match cricket or soccer where there are far too many draws!).
Insiders’ interview started badly for the Opp. Leader when he tried to suck up to Cassidy by saying he’d come on the program before Rudd. Cassidy just let it go through to the keeper.
Cassidy wasted much time badgering Nelson about the distant past rather than questions regarding approval of dud Super Hornet against departmental and RAAF advice. By concentrating on Nelson’s Labor party youth, it was easy for him to fob off Cassidy many times with “what matters to the average fair dinkum Australian is………..”
Best part of Panel analysis was all in agreement about the depth of talent in Labor’s ministry. What happened to all those “L-Plate” fears?
Also, a highlight was everyone stressing that Nelson now has Turnbull, Abbott, AND Bishop with their knives sharpened and ready for the kill.
Also the leader of the Liberal party needing to state that ‘obviously I vote Liberal now’. That one’s gonna stick.
Just heard Nelson on the ABC news saying he was about making sure Rudd keeps his promises (yea, such as to abolish WorkChoices?). Labor should go to town on this.
I think the fact Nelson needed Minchin , Abbott , Bishop , Cooney , Costello & their supporters to vote for hi Leadership GUARANTEES he is stuck with keeping most
of the work choices policy as his policy
Over 18 months as a result , his popularity will be under 35% ..Turnbull will then take over. I can not see Nelson surviving but see Turnbull as a bigger Labor danger
I’m glad to see the back of the Libs, and I think they’ll be smashed again in 2010. I’m just disappointed in my new local member for Corangamite, Darren Cheeseman, who appears to be incompetent and fairly thick. Both local papers called him up this week and asked him which two schools he was going to visit, as per the leader’s instructions, and he said he wouldn’t be complying with it as he didn’t have a car. Surely we can do better than this, Kevin.
Panchoon 02 Dec 2007 at 11:02 am
Also the leader of the Liberal party needing to state that ‘obviously I vote Liberal now’. That one’s gonna stick.
Pancho are sure Nelson voted Liberal last Saturday !!
billybob, that’s hilarious. What a bozo.
Am I correct that Stewart Macarthur and Andrew Lamming voted in the Liberal leadership contest on Thursday? If so, at least one, and possibly 2 votes should be struck off and considered null & voild. Turnball has grounds to ask for another vote.
As for the close seats, I’m confident Labor will pick up Flynn, Solomon and Bowman, and Robertson(unless Jim Lloyd has another solid win on the next lot of postals). Herbert will be won by either Lindsay or Colbran by 20 votes.
Fran Bailey will keep McEwen, despite a brave fightback from the Labor candidate.
Progressive, apparently they both allowed these former members to vote. And Turnbull probably can’t afford to challenge again just yet. But it would seem to be his whenever he wants it.
labor = lol
Altho we like mia handshin
Danny Yee, I just put my $175 on the field hockey men’s champions trophy backing Netherlands over Spain, $1.42 v Spain @ 4.75. Seems as safe as any, given the past form of the two teams:
Champions Trophy Head-to-head
> Spain have taken on the Netherlands on 17 occasions, recording 3 wins, 2 draws and 12 defeats.
> At the 2006 Champions Trophy the Netherlands beat Spain 4-3.
> The Dutch team have won 7 of the last 8 Champions Trophy encounters with Spain.
> Spain’s last victory over the Netherlands came in the gold medal match of the 2004 Champions Trophy (4-2).
If Rudd governs competently, and the global economy stays on track, the Libs are in for an absolute smashing next time, as has happened in Vic, NSW, Qld and SA.
I’m not sure that conservative Brits are her type Ave it. And shouldn’t you update your name given the look of the scoreboard?
Just heard a rumour that Newspoll has just finished its latest poll to be published next Tuesday. On the Preferred PM stake: Rudd 90% Nelson 10% but Shannana’s commentary piece will scream it is narrowing. He expects Nelson to overtake Rudd by 2012 as the PPM.
Labor = lol; i.e, lots of love
There definitely appears to be something fishy going on in McEwen, they only received back 5900 postals, but they have counted 7000, am I missing something here?
How come Stewart McArthur got a vote in the leadership ballot? He was far too far behind to be competitive on Thursday!
Ladies and gentlemen, your alternative PM:
http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2007/s2107196.htm
“Yes, I come out of a Labor family. My dad was a Labor man. And taught me that basically you should be supportive of the Labor movement, and then as I graduated from medicine, I spent some time in the work force selling doors, curtain fittings, and so on, I did medicine.”
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2105315.htm
“Symbolism is extraordinarily important. But I think we need to remember, and I think most people know that I have the greatest sympathy and respect for Aboriginal people. I have a portrait of Neville Bonner in my office on the wall opposite me, twice the size of a standard door”
He has decided that he isn’t going to let Abbott get all the laughs.
This classic Nelson comment was on ABC online a couple of days ago:
“You’re going to see me all over Australia doing all kinds of things relating to all kinds of Australians, particularly those who feel they have neither power nor influence, because I will be their voice,” he said.
Er… thanks for reassuring us on that, Brendan.
Maybe Brendan Nelson is an ALP plant?
I think the ALP now realises the value of a good postal vote campaign. A final ALP seat count of 84 looks good, though a late boilover in McEwen and Dickson would be nice. The result is good in that the amount of low hanging fruit for both sides will keep them on their toes, but it might also encourage excessive shameless populism.
Helen,
Hi, have only recently started blogging here (so far, infrequently), but I’ll call myself Helen 2 now – unusual to find two of us!
Cheers
Ah – sorry if I pinched your name!
)
I’ve always thought Helens rule!!!
)
Kirribilli Removals, your first post at 9.am. this morning ( 2/12/07) is truly magnificent, especially considering your other responsibilities – I am a true ‘bludger’ in every respect by comparison with your good self. You should read what you’ve written again yourself to know how profound it is ( I am not being a sycophant, as I don’t know who you are, other than that you are a hard-pressed parent with a great sense of humour, but that contribution is truly poetic). Congratulations. If you are not a published writer, you should seriously consider it, IMHO. Whilst you invariably talk sense, this time you have excelled with a truly original and entertaining contribution. Bravo.
Brian Toohey was his cynical self this morning on Insiders in criticising Rudd’s direction to Labor MP’s to visit two schools in each Labor seat. Surely Labor supporters should be allowed to celebrate for at least a week that the hated Coalition is gone, before the Left gets stuck into Rudd’s expected timidity re: Work Choices etc.
I otherwise enjoyed Toohey’s shiacking – loves to be controversial, which is fun for political junkies like me on a Sunday morning – what else do we have in our ‘miserable’ lives but politics?
The demise (for the moment) of Deputy Dawg is also like backing the Daily Double at very good odds ( and I wonder what odds would have been on offer that he would not contest the leadership?) . The spectre of Tony Abbott declaring he will have another go at the Lib leadership also warms my heart – stand in line behind Turnbull and Bishop. The Bishop is just as crazy as you Tony, just as ruthless and no doubt also has ‘God on her side’, as she comes from WA, which is the only place the Coalition went close to winning a seat from Labor. That blazing blue stare she has is truly scary.
The Libs leadership instability will serve Rudd well in looming difficult times – if only the Libs keep tearing themselves apart Labor will rule for at least two and perhaps three terms, depending on how long Rudd wants in the job – I get this feeling he won’t want to stay in it for as long as Howard, but time will tell if megalomania grips him. PM’s often find the job doesn’t turn out to be what they expected, but Rudd has the advantage of intimate knowledge of how bureaucracies work ( and fail), so he won’t be the worst PM we’ve ever had by a long margin. He has some bright people behind him – especially Faulkner. Very happy to see the Senate Bureuacrat ‘killer’ back in the thick of the action.
I just love Rudd’s comment about policies ‘disappearing in bureaucratic sludgeland’. It shows he is determined to change the country, just as Garrett ‘joked’. He’s invested a lot of faith in Julia – I reckon that’s justified as she is clearly a bright and tenacious person. If anyone can handle a mega-portfolio like the one she’s been allocated, she can. I sure hope she has a good break over Christmas, as I think she’ll need it, as will many of us after a year heralding much change.
Managing expectations for change will be very difficult, but if anyone can do it I think Kevvie can. He’s a class act and just mad enough to have the drive to get things done. It’s a bit of a romantic story really, the ‘boys’ from Nambour – they seem to have grown up pretty tough.
Re: the Toohey comments again – there obviously are votes in education, but there aren’t a lot in homelesss shelters and Rudd sent Labor MP’s to report on them as well. I find that very encouraging, but then if I wasn’t encouraged and excited by the end of The Rodent, what could possibly encourage me, as a loyal Left ( God Help Me) Labor party member?
I can think of some other things which have in the past excited me, like Shane Warne’s bowling, which truly transcended sport and became ‘art’, but the end of the Rodent/Dawg ‘team’ prompts the question: “Can it get better than this?”
Looks like I’ll be sending William less than $100, as Labor looks like it will win only 84 seats -I said I would send Mr Bowe $20 for each Labor seat over 80 – I might make it a round ton anyway, as a token of my appreciation for his efforts, especially during the campaign itself, when things at times got a little heated here, not to mention the technical difficulties he had to overcome.
Billybob
If Cheeseman doesn’t comply, he’s being very obtuse. KR has clearly stated that he’s looking for the best advice from the administration and the best performance from his Cabinet – benchmarked and accountable. The “homework assignment” is like the pop quiz you give to a class on the first day: you want to find out where the talent is for future reference. The choice of schools, the information gathered by the MPs will be carefully examined: has KR asked for a written report? KR just doesn’t want numbers of computers needed (that could be learnt with a quick phone call): he’ll want to know what the MP has gained from the experience, and the sharp cookies will have taken the assignment seriously, especially as it’s the targeted central focus of KR’s platform. So, an MP will have a carefully thought out series of questions he wants to explore during each visit, apart from the rapport he’lll want to foster with the local schools. The second assignment is even more interesting and challenging for the MPs: they’ll have to come up with a series of questions/observations which will tests their mettle and comfort zones. KR believes strongly in meritocrasy, and so DC will need to perform if he plans to stay more than one term.
If Peter Lindsay wins again in Herbert we will miss out on the V8 supercars for another 3 years!!!!!
This is the worst possible scenario! ARGH!
There’s plenty of upside for Labor in 2010. To begin with, remarkably, Labor will only hold 4 out of 15 WA seats. But it’s not as though sandgropers are inherently anti-Labor. They have a state Labor government.
Come 2010, Western Australians will realise that their fears will have been unfounded and, with suitable lashings of pork spread their way over the next three years, look to Labor to win at least 4 seats in the west at the next election.
The Liberals are set to give vent to their fratricidal tendencies, with Turnbull already undermining Nelson. (Who leaked the story about Turnbull marching into Nelson’s office and ordering him to toughen up? Not Nelson.) The NSW Liberal Right are about to unleash on the moderates, with a witchhunt on the for Liberal insider who leaked the Lindsay pamphlet affair to the Labor Party. And the moderates are going to relish to opportunity to fight back. There is no way a weak character like Nelson will be able to stop them. It will be like Lebanon, circa 1981.
Add the mopping up on seats that have just fallen the wrong way and the second Rudd government should have 95 seats in the House.
tweetie pie… i assume you are taking the mickey…. rudd’s ‘homework assignment’ was nothing more than a stunt for the tv news….
he is not going to formulate policy based on what his MPs ‘learn’ in these visits… seriously, if he does not know what public schools are like now, how credible a candidate for PM was he?
Kirribilli -I second Baz re publishing your writing.
I have copied it to reread again another time.
10pse,
KR might know what public schools are like, but other elected MPs may not. And you cannot know absolutely everything there is to know about particular topics. The way I interpret it is that he wants his team to get right down to basics and then once they have the basics down pat, they then have a foundation on which to implement the policy.
This is just the way I see it, anyhoo.
Nelson says no republic. How about Rudd tries some wedge politics on the tories?
Cheesman doesn’t have a Car LOL
How th heck can he get around a seat with next to no Public Transport, o wait I’m sure someone in his office can drive him around.
I would be curious as to what is the punishment for not doing your homework!!
10pse. I can only agree with you. I mean politicians visiting schools for local fact finding mission. God forbid.
What we need are those ‘know it all’ political types who live in ivory towers in Canberra. Similar to those from the previous Howard Liberal government. Now thats a team that got things done!! NOT!!
My name starts with H has one en two ees and one l..
Great to see you!
Ruddock has quit the frontbench. Good riddence!
Re Nelson’s portrait of Bonner in his room; isn’t that nice. I bet he also regularly says that some of his best friends are Aboriginal people
I bet he also regularly says that some of his best friends have met Aboriginal people
Seconded, Jasmine Pierce.
I hope that bench moves so far back as to disappear. With its occupant.
And so say all of us,Jasmine.
Likewise Crikey Whitey!! Not surprised, given how much I enjoy and am informed by your posts!
Few years ago went ‘cold’ to a meeting at State Library, hung about outside being slightly invisible so as not to be first in the door. The next four women who arrived hovered outside too, and we started chatting. They were all Helens, and none of us knew each other before!
Perhaps we can find Ruddock a nice little sinecure, how about Governor of Christmas Island, or Nauru perhaps?
What have you got against Christmas Island or Nauru people, Basil?
Robben Island?
# Jasmine Pierceon 02 Dec 2007 at 1:06 pm
“Ruddock has quit the frontbench. Good riddence!”
Apparently the cadaver will be donated to science so they can determine how it survived for so long without a heart or spine.
WA is odd, wasn’t there a statewide swing to Labor but a net loss of one seat?It should bounce back as it did in 1974 after a notably bad performance in 1972. Barring some disaster Bass & Braddon will consolidate. The interesting by-election will be Lyne test for Nelson as to how actively support a Liberal.
Phillip Ruddock can finally be laid to rest. Eleven years of being undead is surely enough.
Given that Ruddock and Stewart McArthur are both – to varying degrees – politically dead, Kevin Rudd has at his disposal two cryogenic freezers.
Blimey – Ive given up follwing the senate count, and now am watching grass grow; owing to the more exciting developments and regular updates there.
Brendan Nelson on Insiders this morning referred several times to ‘average Australians’. At one point, he strengthened the description with ‘fair dinkum’. This is stirring language, dazzlingly employed by the man responsible for a generational shake out of his party.
And I’m being only slightly facetious when I say that we should all look forward, under his alternative governorship, to the triumphant return of Patrick White’s ‘exaltation of the (fair dinkum) average’.
2010 – fair dinkum average (Coalition loses, Nelson learns to fly jets)
2013 – fair dinkum true blue average (Coalition loses, Nelson masters Mandarin)
2016 – fair dinkum true blue dinky die average (Coalition loses, Nelson changes gender and contemplates gay marriage)
Must go now. Another party, sigh. A tribute.
Reprise Triomphant sans Honte.
Non, Jeanette. Rien!
Dedie a Maxine La Magnifique.
Seriously improving the health system and hospitals? It can be done.
Controlling petrol prices with consumers not being ripped off? It can be done.
Labor delivering budget surpluses? It can be done.
And the liberal party knows it! That’s why they (liberal) are sh*tt*ng themselves. The massacre at the ballot box will come at the next election.
We should become a republic in the PMs second term. I believe it is fitting that Kim Beazley be Australia’s first president. Poor Glen would be absolutely beside himself. LOL
Unfounded rumour. If Pyne doesn’t get Foreign Affairs or an equivalent shadow ministry, he will bail before the next election and move into State politics.
Geoff R
Yes, its a very good return for the coalition in WA.
I think WA is the next (only?) state up for election in 2008. This should remove the rather smelly state ALP govt and enable ALP to be less encumbered at the next federal election.
So WA should be easy pickings for the ALP at the federal next election.
No, it’s 2009, and while there is Liberal in-fighting and the lack of a good opposition leader, plus 1 bote, 1 value – the Carpenter Govt will be re-elected
that should be 1 VOTE
Re envelope discrepancies in McEwen.
There are two Declaration tables- one for the Division, one Nationwide. From reading both of these, you can see that:
Absents issued are Absent papers for OTHER Divisions
Absents received are those counted so far for their OWN Division
Pre-poll issued are for their OWN, plus OTHER Divisions.
Pre-poll received are those counted so far for their OWN Division
Postals issued are for their OWN Division
Postals received are those that came in the mail and have been counted for their OWN Division, so far.
Apart from the possibly strayed ballot papers and the amazing Primaries and TPPs in the ALP Absents, there do not appear to be any discrepancies in McEwen.
They are not entering data today.
If Carpenter gets re-elected it will only be because the State Liberal Division is incompetent but to vent their anger at the failures of Alan Carpenter the Liberal vote will hold up in 2010 IMHO, especially since Julie Bishop is now deputy leader. The Sandgropers are as parochial as the Queenslanders.
The trouble is Nelson isn’t a media ‘w%$*e’ like Rudd and so he’ll not get the dream run Rudd got in his first year as Opposition Leader, Nelson needs a chance and he deserves it IMHO.
Oh and that Rudd 90% Nelson 10% is bull butter even if that was put out by the OG nobody would believe its accuracy, and the people are so used to Howard anyway Nelson will probably start off in the 30s but if he does well he could get into the 40s.
Dickson should remain in Tory hands though Bowman is probably gone IMHO.
Glen come sweetie, list the ‘failures’ of the Carpenter government.
Chrissy Pyne in state politics is something I would not enjoy,its bad enough seeing him when Federal Elections come around ,would see his swarmy puss everyday if he went local,not good.
I wonder how General-General Jeffery Jefferies feels about having to swear in a bunch of deadbeat anti-war Socialists.
Lowitja O’Donahue for GG!
Lowitja O’Donahue has the same problem as the late Kath Walker – both decided to adopt an Aboriginal name for political reasons and it backfired on them – you see conservative commentators continually pointing out that “Lowitja” sounds like a rare neurological disorder – while Kath Walker’s Aboriginal name is difficult to spell or remember easily – hence 99.9% of people still call her Kath Walker.
Dear Lady i will list several for you to go through. One of the main reasons why the Tory vote held up in WA is thanks to Alan and his mob Jasmine.
The Carpenter Government has failed to fix the health system as only 87 of the 344 Key Result Area targets set for July 2007 – just 25 per cent – were completed.
Of the 23 targets set for clinical services, that is, making sure people receive their operations within set timelines and ensuring people do not wait more than eight hours in an emergency department, only a staggering two (eight per cent) were completed.
Of the commitments given for new and upgraded hospitals and health facilities by July 2007, only 17 of 68 were completed.
Among the most disgraceful failures was the fact that 19 of the 28 mental health facilities were being delayed.
Oh and Jasmine how could i forget good old Neale Fong.
http://www.loop.wa.gov.au/media/date/23-08-2007%20~%20Omodei%20~%20Exposed%20-%20massive%20failure%20to%20meet%20key%20health%20targets.htm
Aboriginal leader says WA Government has failed indigenous communities
“Mr Quartermaine says the State Government has not addressed alcohol, gambling, sexual abuse or violence issues which he says are rife across communities in WA.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/27/2044645.htm
Kim would never get elected as President anyway, i say Don Burke for President before Big Kim. But i’d rather Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II of Australia as our head of State IMHO.
Did some of the Liberal/ National candidates whose seats have not been decided vote in the Liberal leadership contest, people like Wilson Tuckey who most likely voted for Nelson and if he loses along with a few other candidates would the result have been different?
Glen should move to Her Majestys homeland.
Maybe but those MPs whose seats were not declared were allowed to vote (Laming, Tollner, MacArthur, Laming) and both parties Turnbull and Nelson allowed them to vote so i don’t think Turnbull can dispute the ballot marky. But thats not to say he wont challenge down the track.
The rodent employed Max the Axe to axe dissidents in the public service. Kevin Rudd employed another Max the Axe to axe the rodent. Does JWH see any sort of justice / irony in this? And when is the bastard going to concede?
Howards got alzheimers,he’s forgotten there was an election.
JWH’s contempt is showing. Particularly galling when Maxine has gracious in victory.
Despite the fact there are a multitude of contributors on PB who have an intricate knowledge of political manouvering most seem to have missed the hidden agenda with the Libs leadership election process.
Turnbull was a shoe-in and he knew it. He doesn’t want it right now.
Nobody else looked like spiking his guns so he went on ABC Radio and created enough loud moderate “noise” to spike his own chances. Why did he cover so many fields of policy? He wanted to make sure he had off-sided enough Libs to NOT get elected YET. Even then he nearly got up. No contest on who got a vote from him, he would get up (LOL).
He’s one smart political animal with the selfish instincts that JWH would be proud of.
Cheers, NSMM.
Maxine has been …
Rumour is that Lexy is thinking of doing the same thing. That should make for interesting times because I can’t see their state leader willingly hand power to either. Hamilton-Smith is also the only one of the tree with a modicum of talent.
Might be good for the state though because the government has been sleep walking much of the time lately and seemingly going out of its way to p*ss people off when it isn’t.
Re the federal LIbs, I wouldn’t be writing off Cossie yet. He might be saying he isn’t interested but these buggers don’t lie straight in bed. It’ll be interesting to see if he pulls stumps once his super entitlement supposedly peaks in March.
While I can’t help thinking it’s good riddance to bad Ruddock, at the same time it seems that with so many of the senior ministers retreating to the back bench and others getting the flick at the hands of the electorate, Nelson is going to be pushing to put his shadow ministry together. For example, who’d want Immigration, Trade or Defence given the likely disclosures in those areas?
Jenny if nobody got into trouble before when they were investigated i hardly see where anything new is going to come from?
I like how “Parties” means Turnbull V Nelson.
The Liberals have completely given up fighting against Labor.
George Newhouse didn’t make it, but what about all the other Labor candidates who were ineligible?
ShowsOn Rudd’s not been sworn in yet and this is Howie’s last day as PM and you’re saying that in the midst of a leadership election Nelson and Turnbull had to start fighting against Labor, lets wait till Feb then you’ll see.
107 Mayoferal-Re Pyne and Lexie, State politics move. I’m told that State Labor hopes desperately that they DONT move for the reasons you mention. If Hamilton-Smith was joined by two Federal ministers in a unified team, Labor would be in trouble because they are doing a terrible job IMHO and if there was a credible alternative, it could be interesting.
I assume the ballot is secret in which case the real question is: Did Turnbiull vote for Turnbull or Nelson?
I’d say the electoral commission people have the day off: no counting today!
1) His name is Major General Michael Jeffrey
2) He served under Coalition and Labor governments from Menzies to Keating so knows it makes little difference to the ADF which party is in power. They both eulogise you as heroes when they need you to die for them, and don’t want to know you if, inconveniently, you return broken in body and/or spirit.
3) Only the wet behind the ear young’uns lust for war. Old campaigners like Jeffrey who’ve been there, done that and got the tee shirt know most wars aren’t worth fighting and most of us are more anti war than the marchers for peace (RSL blowhards often being the exception that proves the rule).
Has the Deputy Leader of the Nationals been elected yet?
Should I even care about Nelson’s shadow ministry?
Glen, one hopes the likes of Bruce Billson, Greg Hunt, perhaps Scott Morrison get promoted.
Warren Truss the person you listen to just before you go to bed, soon send you to sleep.
“Despite the fact there are a multitude of contributors on PB who have an intricate knowledge of political manouvering most seem to have missed the hidden agenda with the Libs leadership election process.”
NSMM, I don’t think Turnbull deliberately sabotaged his chances of being voted as leader of the opposition. If he really didn’t want the leadership now, then he could have just held off putting his hat into the ring, and therefore keep his powder dry for later.
By going on ABC radio and announcing that he would support gay marriage, saying sorry to the indigenous, and signing Kyoto, he put those beliefs on the public record. If he then took up the leadership later and had to voice different positions, such as opposing gay marriage, then this will come back to bite him. People will be right to ask why he is changing his mind and then questioning what he truly believes in… not a great start for an alternative PM.
I actually think that people give Turnbull too much credit. Sure, he is more than willing to play dirty when it comes to his own political survival (and we witnessed this with the bogus claims about George Newhouse being ineligible to run as the rival candidate in his seat), but he has also conducted a LOT of gaffes in what is only a 3 year career as an MP. He is sloppy. And things tend to backfire on him.
My reasonable guess is that he did make a genuine run for the leadership but botched it by overestimating the extent to which his colleagues wanted a sense of renewal.
I think Turnbull has got a long way to go before he could ever rival Rudd.
Point about Hamilton-Smith.
For the Liberals to get back in in South Australia, what needs to be done?
97 Jasmine Pierce Says:
Lowitja O’Donahue has the same problem as the late Kath Walker – both decided to adopt an Aboriginal name for political reasons and it backfired on them – you see conservative commentators continually pointing out that “Lowitja” sounds like a rare neurological disorder – while Kath Walker’s Aboriginal name is difficult to spell or remember easily – hence 99.9% of people still call her Kath Walker.
Jassie, Jassie, Jassie, some suggestions:
1. Learn how to spell people’s names (O’Donoghue, not O’Donahue)
2. Remember conservative commentators are sometimes, just sometimes, wrong, misguided, nasty and ‘political’
3. Don’t be snide (’for political reasons’). It only diminishes you.
4. Don’t (Sociology 101) make ridiculous claims that you can’t prove (99.9%).
5. If you can’t say something intelligent, best to keep quiet.
Think what you will Noocat but the outcome was as good as he could have hoped for. Had to run to avoid the “Costello no stones” label and, he is more cunning than you appear to realise.
Personally, I couldn’t give a rat’s tossbag, I was commenting on the political manouvering rather than the outcome.
We just want to get Damien up in Solomon so there is a decent person representing the good people of Darwin.
113 Diogenes – Depends on what you class as “credible alternative”.
Downer is an incompetent. A dangerous incompetent, just ask the people of Timor, or those stranded on the docks when Israel attacked Lebanon last year. Pyne may be better, not sure. Frankly, his whining manner makes my skin crawl and I switch channels whenever he pops up on the idiot box.
But they may present the illusion of ‘credible’ sufficiently well enough to continue fooling most of the people. I was shocked at how well Lexy’s vote stood up in Mayo. I’d expected a much bigger swing against him than the state average given the childish way he carried on in the last weeks of the campaign, but it was significantly less. Sigh
Their biggest problem will be that Downer and Pyne will expect H-S to play third fiddle and I’d doubt he’d do that willingly.
I agree with Noocat.
Turnbull is a political novice, he bungled the pulp mill approval by making people think the final decision was his – not sheeting the blame on the Tas Govt.
He botched the Murray-Darling water plan by saying one thing and doing another – he lost the trust of the people he was negotiating with.
I am sure the Libs with dump Horatio Hornet for the Wally from Wentworth – its just that he will be even worse.
121 HooHoo- Suggestions for Libs in SA to raise their profile and electability
1. Stable high profile team which gets media attention (theyve got nothing except Hamilton-Smith at the moment. Get Fawcett, Pyne, Downer.
2. Water is an absolute disaster. They need a plan that everyone knows about and agrees with.
3. Health is a disaster. The public hospital system is in terminal, palliative care mode. The numbers are APPALLING but Chapman is too stupid to know where to look to disclose them. The Marj is being used as an excuse to run sub-standard hospitals for ten years and therefore save money.
4. Transport-need I say more
5. Bullying and dummy spitting by Rann, Foley and minders of the media if they ever get bad publicity. The ban on Abrahamson should be highlighted more.
Glen @ 109 The difference between the previous inquiries and the ones being mooted now is that Labor controls the terms of reference, and in the AWB case at least, if not others, that is likely to make a big difference. If stuff comes out, it will place shadows in a difficult position – do you bag your predecessor or claim that black is white?
But I agree with MayoFeral that some of the dear departed, including Lord D, will be no great loss.
124 Mayoferal- I agree about Dolly’s competence but the electorate would feel chuffed to have someone who was foreign minister for so long. The same goes for Pyne. The media especially would like it and would give them a lot of airplay. I cant name a Lib shadow minister except Hamilton-Smith and Chapman who I’ve seen in the media in a year.
I also cannot understand how Downer got such a small swing against him. I thought Mayo voters were well enough off to vote on the “moral” issues like AWB, Haneef etc and I thought he’d get caned.
Apres:
Kath Walker at least *did* change her name for political reasons per her Wikipedia article:
“In 1988 she adopted her traditional name Oodgeroo (meaning “paperbark tree”) and returned her MBE in protest and to make a political statement at the condition of her people in the year of Australia’s Bicentenary celebrations”
HooHoo said:
Well for a start they need more than just H-S. ATM, he’s a one man band. The former leader and deputy were going to set the world on fire but instead seem to have fallen off its edge, and the others – I assume there are others – are are even less visible.
Mayo Feral,
I couldn’t give a toss what his “real” name is, to me he is General-General Jeffery Jefferies: conservative stooge first-class and below-par replacement for the rape denier Hollingworth.
Be gone with him.
After the 2004 debacle, I resolved to not read or watch any news for the three years between the elections. I felt that there was nothing that the liberal government could say to me that would take away from the lies I had been told for the previous years, and the ones to come. It turns out that all of the lies I knew to be so, were identified as such during this election campaign of over a year.
The absolute drivel that was spewed forth from the young liberals both in 2004 and 2007 was breathtaking in its ignorance and selfishness, but finally I suspect that their single asset (constant and never-ending spam) is looking to have seen its day. This time, the deafening sounds of the ignorant trolls were drowned out by reason and logic, and for that I am forever thankful. We have turned a page in our history in Australia, and I shed not a single tear for thing the Australian public has rejected. The howard years will be remembered as the decade of hate, when it became a regular political tactic to identify a defenseless minority and demonize them to appeal to the ignorant, and provide just enough silver to satisfy the rest. From opposition, and beholden to the religious right-wing, this tactic will forever consign them to minor party status. The new ALP looks to be a very good government, with ideals and principals run by a man that is a diplomat of the highest order, and a work ethic that has no compare.
But I am not a junkie, feeding upon forums to satisfy my own addiction, and so have decided to sign-off as a regular contributor to political forums. If (and I suspect when) the DD comes along, I expect there will be a greater contribution.
Thanks to JJ for making this entire site possible, and for the contributors of reason that didn’t lose faith. It is the rise of the 5th estate that we are witnessing, and the voices of the informed will become even harder to silence in the future.
The thread is here…
http://ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=2462
And thanks, of course, to William, for making the impact that this site actually made.
129 Jasmine
Two points. Wikipedia is a doubtful source of wisdom. Second, all choices are ‘political’, as is your choice to address this topic.
HooHoo
“For the Liberals to get back in South Australia, what needs to be done?”
Well, maybe they could paint themselves green and cut off their horns. But the first thing to do would be to laugh at Dolly Downer – along with the rest of the country. (Sorry, just trying to be helpful).
Importantly, Hamilton-Smith and Chapman must do a Rudd and bring forth appealing policy. They can’t just whinge.
Should have said…
And thanks, of course, to William, for making possible the impact that this site actually made.
I watched the budget this year, and Hamilton-Smith was still bringing up events that happened 20 years ago. (ie. State Bank)
Nobody else is to be put on an AWA. Think it’s about time they started handing out some big fines to employers who wish to continue the ruse.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/employers-warned-over-awas/2007/12/02/1196530464623.html
The Liberal vote in WA held up because they were voting for Howard and his superior economic management. With Howard off the scene that personal factor won’t be there in 2010. A Liberal party led by Abbott or Turnbull definitely would not get the same support in WA. If Bishop is the leader the Liberal vote might increase in WA (parochial vote, not merit) but would completely collapse everywhere else.
The WA state election is due February 2009. The Liberal party might with a bit of luck have sorted out who their leader will be by then. The next election will be fought on new electorates based on one vote, one value which will favour Labor.
The Libs and Nats will be squabbling over country seats. The Nats have declared they will not go into coalition with the Libs again.
State Labor have shown themselves to be resposible economic managers, maintaining a budget surplus.
Labor with Green preferences will win in 2010.
That should be will win in 2009 State election
steve,
I’m on an AWA and am very happy with it, just like everybody I know employed on an AWA. Do you actually know anybody on an AWA?
#142
“I’m on an AWA and am very happy with it, just like everybody I know employed on an AWA. Do you actually know anybody on an AWA?’
Yes.
Several.
None of them happy in the slightest.
And if you were on their AWAs you wouldn’t be happy either.
Re 87,
Centre Says:
Now Beazely in this context is a very good idea
We shall have to wait and see if you are right Centre 
Re 89,
Albert F Says:
ACT is in October 2008 (only elections next year). WA isn’t next year, I believe it is 2009 although I do not know what month.
fred @ 143 Says: “And if you were on their AWAs you wouldn’t be happy either.”
Simply classic!!
John
Well good for you – you like your AWA. Shame the previous govt did not release the statistics to show how many happy campers like you exist.
No more hiding stats now.
117 “Has the Deputy Leader of the Nationals been elected yet?”
WHO CARES?
They’ll announce the deputy Nationals leader just as soon as they’ve removed the dags from his tail and given him a good sheep-dip.
Isn’t there a clause in AWA’s that you cannot discuss your pay/conditions with others?
John. As you may not need to identify yourself than by that name can you please tell me the following of your AWA -
1) what is it you do for a living & which state do you live?
2) what was your previous pay & conditions &
3) what conditions have you forsake to have a better pay deal on a AWA?
4) was your AWA done before or after the fairness clause was tag on?
I am serious about trying to distinguish if you are really on a better deal or not.
Trivia question: Sorry if its been brought up before.
What do Julia Gillard, Julie Bishop, Brendan Nelson and Therese Rein all have in common?
Ave it 07 says”..I Agree! Sensible posters only!”
Ave It, the cyanide capsule is sewn in to the collar of your brown shirt. Chow down baby.
Diogenes,
they all wear ear rings.
RE AWA S
Those on good money do well eg Laws & Jones in the NSW radio industry
however if you have no bargaining power you lose badly
In the Federal Public Service where I work each agency would have
it”s own agreement for all and you would either accept it or lose your job
My agreement is through a union !!!
152 Diogenes
All were originally croweaters. Furthermore Bishop and Rein both went to St Peters Girls College.
154 GG-LOL!
Actually, they all grew up in SA and then left. I think all their parents still live here.
143
fred Says:
December 2nd, 2007 at 6:32 pm
#142
“I’m on an AWA and am very happy with it, just like everybody I know employed on an AWA. Do you actually know anybody on an AWA?’
I know both ends, it suits a minority – but under bargained agreements, there is nothing stopping an employer paying “above award” or giving better conditions individually or collectively – there never was a barrier for employers rewarding the higher-performing individuals, should they so wish.
Saw a guy on 4-Corners who honestly thought that Unionised or enterprise-bargained safety-net minimum conditions/payscales etc would take money off him? Bizarre.
156 Don Wigan- I just looked their ages up and theyre only 2 years apart. Wonder if they knew each other at school. Saints Girls wasnt very big back then.
Still waiting (I love my AWA) John.
The AEC are not on AWAs – no counting on a Sunday.
Hi all,
I live in Sydney but am ex WA. My sister’s husband has been on some form of AWA-type agreement for more than a decade (different agreements of course, as re-negotiated several times). He loved the fact that when they had kids (they now have 3) he was able to change his terms of employment several times to create circumstances that worked for his family, without having to change from full-time. He works in the resources/mining sector, and has changed from for instance 2 weeks on 2 weeks off site (used to be typical) to 7 days on 7 days off and other combinations… the point is all of the combinations he as wanted to change to require him to be on non-award conditions. He gets very well paid. I asked him about what he thought going into this election and he said he was dreading Labor coming in because they would make it much much harder for him in terms of what sort of arrangements he could have.
Respectfully, this is one of the reasons the WA vote was high and will remain high for the Coalition (plus WA is generally hig for Coalition federally).
Another reason is WA as seen how much productivity soars when unions are kept in check, particularly in the construction industry. Compare that to the debacle of NSW trains and Sydney ferries
cheers
10pse.
“some form of AWA-type agreement for more than a decade”.
Yes like what? A collective agreement? When were AWAs introduced? I think you will find it was less than a decade ago.
Good gracious some people are thick.
AWAs were introduced by the Liberals and the Democrats in 1996.
154
Greeensborough Growler – Once again you are wrong, Nelson only wore one ear ring not earrings…
Sounds as if they might have known each other, Diogenes.
Interestingly, our Jasmine (ALP-leaning lawyer) over in WA has a high opinion of Bishop. Possibly knows her through WA legal circles. This is in contrast to most ALP PB bloggers who find her a bit of a dill. In a general sense, she has got off to a bad start as a Minister by going in to bat for Howard’s Culture Wars.
Sadly, it is typical of Howard that the most (small ‘l’) liberal ones get the nastiest jobs – vide Rudd and Vanstone. But if she wants others beside Glen to admire her, she’ll have to shed a lot of that Howard baggage.
10pse. Going on previous post earlier today I take it that your a ‘dye in the wool’ tory. Suit yourself. To day is the LAST day that OLD Johnny boy will be PM. As Mr T once said….’I pity da FOOL’ !!
for the libs to get back in S.A. they first of all have to do something about Hamilton Smith, he does nothing but whine and complain, he’s never yet come up with a viable alternative or told us what he’d do to to fix whatever his latest whinge is about, even when Rann and co come up with something good he has to front up before the cameras and have a whinge.
it’s hard to respect him when his first essay into parliament as leader was a stunt– that someone leaked to labor and so fell flatter than a pancake, i know as opposition he has to differentiate himself from the government, but gee he could learn a lot from Rudd who didnt mind giving credit where it was due, everyone i know, even my lib pals have stopped listening to his constant harping, it gets depressing after a while.
Hamilton-Smith has come up with some policies. For example, his policy to tackle the water shortage is to end water restrictions, but to charge consumers double or triple for water. Businesses get to continue paying the same price they currently pay.
I think that counts as a new policy, I just don’t think many people will vote for it.
168 judy- I’m not even sure the Libs want to get back in in SA. They seem to be so bone idle lazy that Opposition suits them. What do you do in opposition? If you don’t want to get back in, all you have to do is turn up, collect your pay, go out for lunch, read the paper and go home. What the hell are they doing, except for MHS and Chapman, I never see them. I think they like the lack of responsibility and quiet time. They really need a rocket.
Thanks for that local info, Judy, which as another SA ex-pat I miss, albeit my ability to care has diminished since the passing of Don Dunstan.
On another bit of nostalgia, Judy, it is sad to read of the death of Ken McGregor, another Westies football star of the 50s, although better remembered nationally as a tennis and Davis Cup great.
When the next Governor-General is appointed (I think next year), I hope Rudd makes a good appointment based on merit and not some symbolic gesture. I don’t think O’Donoghue would be a good choice.
My recommendation would be Justice Michael Kirby of the High Court. He is due for retirement in March 2009. I feel he would fill the role admirably, somewhat similar to Sir William Deane in outlook and who was one of our greatest ever GGs.
Michael Kirby is a brilliant speaker, a very passionate and compassionate man, and would do Australia proud at home and abroad.
On the subject of SA Politics & whining – I’m not sure whether those in SA remember it, but Rann was one of the biggest whiners around in opposition. I’m an ALP supporter, but found it to be almost intolerable at the time.
Having made that observation, I think his transformation from the whining opposition leader to the positive Premier in a very short time, surprised & impressed many. In fact, I recall several family members comment on the positive change & their surprise that he had it in him.
Pi, well said and a shame you will cease with this blog. Have thoroughly enjoyed your contributions and hope you will pop in now and then for those of us still in thrall.
Would love to see an end to symbolic appoinments, such as the GG, being made to ex military officials.
I know some will not like me saying this, but I think its time Australia matured & stopped looking at military achievements/past battles for its identity. For example, I think its a bit sad that we focus so much on Anzac Day as our defining moment as a nation.
Australian Bureau of Statistics figures for March 2005 show that hourly wages of workers on AWAs were two percent lower than the hourly wages of workers on registered collective agreements, mostly negotiated by unions.
What are the Stats now?
We must be just about due for a fortnightly Newspoll, mustn’t we?
Really, Triffid?
Some alternative histories come to mind –
“3 December 2007. At Yarralumla the the Imperial Viceroy announced that in Tokyo yesterday the Emperor had approved a new Council of Advisers for the Prefecture of Australia….”
M.H.S.’s plan for his first foray into parliament as a new lib leader, was for the libs to all file in and just sit there and do and say nothing, i’m still scratching my head over what that was supposed to prove, maybe i’m a bit thicker than i thought but if anyone can come up with a sensible explanation i’m willing to learn.
Glen and a couple of libs in here are actually excellent debators as a rule, has any other Adelaide folk here caught Monica or Mignon on radio 5AA? every time i tune in i seem to catch one or the other of them in a rant over how the libs were robbed of government by the media, Mignon seems to think Rupert was behind Rudd’s winning the election, — did we sound so delusional when Howard kept winning? hmmm well, maybe yes a little, i guess someone had better break it to them gently that the election is over now and all the tanty’s on air aint going to change a thing for the next few years, thats democracy.
AWA’s???
What’s the use in arguing over a bad experiment that will be history?
Being an employer, it would never be a reality, I have enough bullshit paperwork to do as I’m an unpaid tax collector.
# 132 – Good call, Pi. The Fifth Estate is the perfect monika for the blogosphere.
And I whole-heartedly support your remarks re: Bill Bowe and this excellent Pollbludger site. I came here late, like a refugee, from Bryan’s “Ozpolitics”. Thanks for having me.
Great analysis and truth beneath the froth to be found here.
The Fifth Estate rocks.
172 gregbris – I whole-heartedly agree with your suggestion for GG – Justice Michael Kirby. He is obviously an intelligent and compassionate man – perfect for the role as GG, then as President when we get our Republic. I assume the Libs will now support the Republic?
The ALP could have picked up at least 4 seats in WA instead of losing one. if it was not for millionaire unionists such as Kevin Reynolds and his tattle-tale wife Shelley Archer. Would you believe the member for Perth was on some “foreign affairs” business in Canberra on election day spruiking for the ABC.
Don Wigan Says:
December 2nd, 2007 at 8:23 pm
Thanks for that local info, Judy, which as another SA ex-pat I miss, albeit my ability to care has diminished since the passing of Don Dunstan.
On another bit of nostalgia, Judy, it is sad to read of the death of Ken McGregor, another Westies football star of the 50s, although better remembered nationally as a tennis and Davis Cup great.
Don i was never a tennis follower, but as you know i’m a Westie tragic and Ken was one of our premiership greats, footie was always his first love, he ranks up there with the best, with Jimmy Wright, Clarry {bang bang} Cannon and co, my dad was the treasurer, my uncle was captain and my aunt and uncle ran the footballers club in their time, last time i was at Richmond they had set up memorabilia rooms for the greats, i follow the Crows in the AFL and i’m a gold card member, but my Westies will always be my real love.
sorry about digressing William.
Re the AWA’s. We all know of people who are on them . A close relative of mine had to sign one. “Sign here if you want the job” was the gist of it. She earns so little that she can’t afford private health insurance, and can’t afford a car. She has tried to get other jobs, but lives in a regional centre (with a National Party rep. in parliament) so the good jobs are still pretty scarce. Despite the fact that there are all those ‘wonderful’ jobs created by the outgoing government, maybe it’s time to analyse the quality of those jobs, not just the quantity. My relative would love to join a union, but like so many others, she feels intimidated by her employers. This is the reality of AWAs, and is perhaps a principal reason that so many people voted the Howard government out. It’s hardly a ‘relaxed and comfortable’ scenario when all the aces are in the employers hands.
Incidentally, and off topic, it’s been raining long and hard in eastern Australia since Kev was elected. I knew that it would, hence my name!
Kirby would be great as GG, i never took much interest in him till he was smeared in cowards castle, when i found the sort of man he was i got on my high horse and ranted in the ear of every pollie i knew, as times gone on my respect for him just grew and grew.
Don Wigan, i think Dunstans micro mini pink shorts were a stunner lol, only he had the panache to wear them in parliament and carry it off lol, i became close to some of the pollies in the Chris Summner as AG days, though Lyn Arnold was a friend from way before then, Chris became a good friend and saw me through some of my worst times, Rann and Atkinson both treat me with respect and Rann kept his promise that he would bring in legislation to keep Von Einam behind bars forever, for that i’m in his debt forever.
As has been asked elsewhere, if AWAs are not generally used to reduce wages/conditions, why are companies reportedly rushing to sign them before the change to legislation? Are they sprinting to pay more money before they are required to sign collective agreements for less cash?
If so, do you want to buy this harbour bridge I have for sale? I will even throw in some magic beans.
As a Redlegs fanatic, I acknowledge Ken McGregor as a true and humble champion in both football and tennis. Sadly, Westies always got pipped by Port Adelaide in those days.
The problem with AWAs and the rest of WorkChoices is not what effects they have now, but what effect they would have if there was an economic downturn and companies were forced to shed staff and reduce costs. We would undoubtedly see a lot of basic conditions eroded, and workers laid off with retrenchment pay.
Howard and Costello’s last-minute pre-election tactic, of warning that the economic clouds were building was counter productive. It just reminded voters what WorkChoices would mean in a recession. The same thing happened when Hewson launched Fightback. It’s not that people really wanted to vote Keating back in, but that Hewson’s cure hurt more than the ailment.
The only protection the Coalition offered for workers in hard times was to farmers (and racehorses).
#189 should, of course, read “WITHOUT retrenchment pay”!
#24 Sportingbet has accepted my withdrawal request. I hope it’ll go through. Did you try to withdraw?
Phil, yup we were pipped but we went down with dignity, that just made our few victories all that much sweeter, i was in queensland when we took the premiership in the early sixties, i flew home for the victory ball and never went back.
we used to get up on the hill at Adelaide oval and razz the port mob and they’d razz us back, it was all good humour not the virulent spite thats dished out nowadays between the Crows and Power, i dont think Chocco helps with that — he mouths off too much, but his dad now, EVERYONE, no matter what team respected him, Chocco could look and learn from him, i dont think Westies treated Doug Thomas very well in the end, the new board have no respect for tradition, pity that it had to end as it did for a wonderful stalward who gave his life to the club.
Queenslander keeps his head down!
Previously provided evidence for La Nina’s observation about the rain. But what the heck, I’ll do it again. It is a lovely picture…
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/rainmaps.cgi?page=oldmap&variable=totals&period=week&area=aus&steps=1
162
10pse Says:
Probably another reason on the list of why the WA Libs should break off and form their own party. The Liberals out there just simply stand for different things than the rest of the country. The rest of the country can’t keep and won’t keep AWA’s just to keep the West Aussies happy. Kevin and Julia are going to consult with the industries out there and make their changes in as consultative a fashion as they can. Changes will come though.
Just briefly looking in – great summary of the close seats William. I see my seat Robertson is still a victim of mediocrity … either way … Where’s Adam to explain the reason for thie failure for Belinda to surge over the line given her dynamic attributes and the general swing?
pissant libs is now an oxymoron………….and rightly.so
sorry,……………..i meant oxy…………moron
redundant…………….tautology
Re the intro to the thread….I think we should be suspicious of stories that the Libs might have snatched the election if it wasn’t for the Jackie Kelly “Chaser-style prank”. I certainly think it was a factor in the huge swings in Lindsay and Macarthur, and maybe it influenced the Bennelong result. But Lindsay was gone anyway. There were no real surprises in the NSW results, except perhaps the size of the swing in Page, which I would attribute to “sea change” and associated demographic and infrastructure issues.
But I doubt that it sank in with too many voters in states like Queensland and Victoria. Many would not have even known about it.
Blaming an election loss on Kelly is a denial that there were many other factors, including Howard being too long in the job, WorkChoices, and Rudd’s emphases on education and climate change.
The argument that Howard’s warning of a “tsunami” was changing voters’ minds is at odds with the big swings in mortgage belts in nearly all states.
And Alistair Drysdale is a former Liberal spinner, of considerable renown. He may still be spinning.
And further on Labor and a likely end to the drought…
http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/2007/s2099381.htm
200 – Antonio
Yes, also the accumulation of resentment about the lies, upon lies, upon lies,also finally burst forth from voters without the Tampa or the leadership obstacle in previous elections this time. The electorate never liked the Howarrd government, but couldn”‘t see its way clear until now to toss them out.
Lord Nelson is truly a great leader, and almost as one eyed as his namesake, (either that or he’s been peering into too many keyholes for kicks). Insiders was priceless today, and proved what a sublime choice for the non-Liberal party Nelson is. We chortled and cheered as he side-stepped the questions and did a few a turns and came out talking to Rudd, talking about Rudd, and talking like Rudd. He ruddywell tied himself in knots, while having us in stitches.
Now, get this straight: Horatio Hornet is going to make a beeline (or should that be more WASPish?) for the things that matter, and whoa, there’ll be no sorry-ising from his lips. Nup, none of those slippery symbolic gestures for our Hornet, he’s going to be talking about the shocking state of our nation’s health system, and its neglected infrastructure! But don’t get him wrong, he’s a CONSERVATIVE in capital letters, prays for the Queen, and won’t be changing anything, despite the fact that “our Federation has let us down”.
No sir, our Brengun shoots from the mouth as soon as his foot is out of it.
I’d defy any of our comedians to come up with a better performance than the one Lord Half Nelson gave Insiders today. Clarke and Dawe have met their match, as Horatio is simply without peer. What a cack!
203 KB – Good one – Who was Clouseau’s superior officer in the Pink Panther? Anyway the Admiral will be twitching like him if he keeps this please everybody charade going
Kirriblli,I saw Lord Nelson on Insiders with a bloke who didnt know who he was and his reaction was,who in the hell is this wanker,I told him and he said well they got no hope in hell.
If Herbert ends up being close(100 votes or so) can the challenger call for a recount???
Townsville needs Labor to win otherwise we won’t recieve any of the goodies, and our V8 race will be delayed for ANOTHER 3 years!
Bugger. I was hoping to be asked
But the previous one to Jefferys was a long time ago, must be at least 40 years.
To the extent we should I believe the enphasis should be on WW2, which is a war we did need to win.
IMHO, the problem with glorifying any aspect of WW1 is that it was mostly war for the sake of war.There was no great cause that warranted the huge sacrifice or the terrible events that were set in train. If it hadn’t been fought we wouldn’t have wasted nearly a whole generation on the killing fields of France or Gallipoli, the Depression may not have occurred , Hitler would have remained an insignificant paperhanger, the Soviet Union probably wouldn’t have existed, and WW2, the Korean, Vietnam, both Afghani, and maybe even the current Iraq wars would not have been fought.
So, honour those who died for they knew nothing of the consequences, but not the war, or its battles.
Oh, and I wouldn’t be wasting William’s bandwidth, which is reason enough to condemn those who lead Europe to war in 1914!
LaborVoter, I’m certain that there will be a recount in Herbert, unless Lindsay picks up the majority of what is left to count and wins by more than 200.
Is Rudd interested in V8s?
I heard Nelson in one breath saying he would hold Labor to all their election promises, and in another breath saying he would not necessarily let them dismantle WorkChoices – their main promise! In fact I seem to remember the last PM saying “This election is a referendum on WorkChoices” – what was the result of that referendum, Mr.Nelson?
Hey, Optimist 197-199
Sounds like you haven’t come off the piss since election night. LOL!
Still, you’re entitled …
Yes, but that was one of those tricky non core referendums, Rocket!
It’s over a week since the election and the AEC still hasn’t given a preference distribution in O’Connor. William, you are the only media I’ve seen which says this seat remains in doubt. I agree with you, but I’d like to see the AEC reveal some figures. What’s going on?
iron bar must control the WA aec
#208
Progressive Says:
December 2nd, 2007 at 10:49 pm
“LaborVoter, I’m certain that there will be a recount in Herbert, unless Lindsay picks up the majority of what is left to count and wins by more than 200.
Is Rudd interested in V8s?”
Both George Colbran(Labor) and Peter Lindsay(Liberal) have promised bringing the V8’s to Townsville.
I dunno how these things work, but I think if Lindsay wins then Labor won’t want to pay for the V8’s as it will just prop Peter Lindsay up.
V8 supercars is the biggest issue facing us in the Townsville electorate… Colbran CAN NOT lose!
what the f*ck are V8 supercars?
Liberals will win Herbert by over 200 votes if current 2PP % continue in all voter types …so v8 cars are out
How come last Sat nite 77.5% were counted and a week later aec still have not counted all ‘ ORDINARY ‘ votes personally cast at the booths
Voters votes who voted in the wrong Division should have been counted by now
as well
Just logged on and what a surprise… ruawake has said something ignorant.
ruawake you accuse me of being thick for saying my brother in law had been on an AWA-style agreement for more than a decade…. you ask when AWAs came in, suggesting it was not a decade ago? well, sadly you are once again out of your depth…the reason i said AWA-type agreements was that it was not originally an AWA… the Court government introduced AWA type agreements (they had a different name though) before the Howard Govt did…. had you been listening to Julie Bishop the other day you would have known this.
It is one thing to be a lefty, but please dont be an ignorant one, and if you are going to accuse someone of being thick, be sure you are on solid ground. i assure you in my case you rarely will be
William your chart of postal & pre poll % ’s between 2004 and 2007 , does this indicate LCP better postal organization in 2007 or the base lowest bias of LCP voter % in the postal area
218
10pse Says:
the ignorance belongs to those who still support the AWA ’s slavery concept
Aussie Guru,
not sure which post of mine you were referring to but i can assure you I am not a tory.
cheers
I am simply saying that anyone who still supports the ‘AWA’s slavery concept
is ignorant. It is a system that operated up to the end of the 19th Century
Whilst I understand the analogy you are drawing Ron, it really does not work.
LaborVoter #214
Maybe Rudd could really rub it in and give the V8 Supercars to Cairns…
:-p
#215 Adam said:
“what the f*ck are V8 supercars?”
An archaic form of taxi racing …..
#
223
10pse Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 12:01 am
Whilst I understand the analogy you are drawing Ron, it really does not work.
Why not….a worker under work choices trying to negotiate for himself NORMALLY has no even negotiating playing field.
This position last applied to workers pre the advent of Unions in the 19th Century
Agree with you about O’Connor William.
My understanding is that the AEC have been instructed to do a 2PP count between the majors in O’Connor (and Melbourne) much to the annoyance of the Nats.
They will have to get the count done soon though because the Libs and the Nats are voting on leaders and appointing shadows and the like.
respectfully i disagree. i am not suggesting the playing field is always even… but employees are so much more needed and valued today and have so many more protections that comparisons to yesteryear are not helpful really
Does anyone know if the swearing in ceremony will be televised tomorrow?
I assume Sky News will stream it.
respectfully i disagree. i am not suggesting the playing field is always even… but employees are so much more needed and valued today and have so many more protections that comparisons to yesteryear are not helpful really
cheers
I completely don’t understand the proposition that there is huge demand for low skilled workers. If that was the case employers would be paying double or triple the award.
What there seems to be high demand for is high demand workers willing to work for the award.
Latest Hatchet Job on Nicole Cornes.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22854243-5006301,00.html?from=mostpop
#
230
10pse Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 12:42 am
respectfully i disagree. i am not suggesting the playing field is always even… but employees are so much more needed and valued today and have so many more protections that comparisons to yesteryear are not helpful really
cheers
Having been an Employer of hundreds over 30 years in various Industries , it still
appears there are people who do NOT understand the basic inequity and immorality to workers of work choices …by avoiding condemning it outright
ANYONE who does not condemn work choices is really supporting it without the courage to say so.
I negotiated with workers collectively (via Unions and workers collectively without Union representation) which strenghened their bargaining position vs me
but negotiation is about outcomes based on net wages vs productivity
which sensible negotiators understand
The problem is not one for the miner or the engineer, the problem is for the sales person at your local retail outlet. If you can’t see that then you really are self centered.
Workchoices is an absolute disaster for our society and I happen to be an employer (one who is sticking to the awards as a basis for employment conditions).
If the Liberal party will not be of any value until they get ever it, and past the current comedy routine.
There has been some comment regarding Lindsaygate causing the downfall of the Rat Pack, what absolute piffle. All this did in the voter’s minds was to confirm what they already knew, the Coalition were tricky and corrupt, and it was time for a fresh start. Lindsay itself was gone for all money anyway, but they just could not resist the temptation to revert to type and carry out one more smear campaign. Begone you rabble.
10pse
What you describe has been happening using individual employment contacts under common law since at least 1980.
If you think AWAs are the only way to get flexibility you really are as I described.
“Howard releases memoirs!”
“Scientists discover cure for insomnia!”
Snake
I’m told the Howard memoirs is a very short book consisting mostly of the phrases.
“I don’t recall”
“I didn’t say that”
“To the best of my memory I can not remember”
“I can not recollect that conversation”
I wouldn’t cross the street to see a V8 Supercar, but the rev-heads in Townsville should check the fine-print of what promises Rudd made.
Did he promise that Townsville would get V8 Supercars if Colbran won, or did he promises that Townsville would get V8 Supercars if Labor won the election?
I would expect a promise is a promise, irrespective of how individual electorates voted. The same applies to the assorted bits of road pork Rudd promised to individual electorates. If it’s a pledge by the government it should be honoured, irrespective of what party the local member belongs to.
237 – There will be a second book written in consultation with senior public servants that will include all the things that Howard was never told.
239
Petrie is Coming Home
You beat me to it by a whisker! Ha, but that’s OK, maybe we should start a title competition, how about:
The Howard Years: The greatest story never told.
…just to kick it off!
A V8 Supercar Race for Townsville?
Why should taxpayer funds be expended on an entertainment that is of interest to a very small proportion of the population of Australia?
The participants all seem to be quite wealthy. Perhaps they could create their own facility?
If you take as look at say McEwan
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-226.htm
It reports
Declaration Vote Scrutiny Progress Absent Provisional Pre-Poll Postal Total
Envelopes Issued 9,525 1,091 7,918 8,338 26,872
Envelopes Received 2,451 1,091 2,564 5,915 12,021
Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny 2 0 4 11 0
Ballot Papers Counted 2,227 0 5,421 7,158
Postal votes issued 8,338 Received back 5,915
All good BUT how is it that they have counted 7,158 if only 5,915 have been received back…
Somehow I think it is a bug in the AEC web site… If you shift the columns by one then maybe it reads correctly.. I am begining to underatand why the AEC does not publish the scrutiny data in comparison with the election results.
Clearly this information should have been more readily available
Nine seats are within 0.05%…
227
Regarding counting of Lab & Lib votes first in O’Connor…
The Victorian equiv. of the AEC did this in East Gippsland when Craig Ingram (indep.) won the seat on ALP prefs from the Nat. sitting member Doug Treasure (aka the ‘Hidden Treasure’) the year that Kennet lost gov’t.
On the night it was obvious to scrutineers by 8.30pm that the ALP would come in 3 and push Ingram across the line. However the electoral computers – as well as Antony Green’s at the ABC – hadn’t been programmed for the ALP to not be in the top 2 vote winners, so the call on the night was comprehensively wrong.
In the end it took a couple of weeks for the final result to be declared. If only I had been aware of electronic betting back then – not sure it was even available – I could’ve made a killing.
Calare is an interesting seat.
The Declaration Progress page shows:
- there are 5068 absent votes to be counted.
- there were 3,360 postal vote envelopes issued but 4,022 “received”.
Is this an anomaly?
PM Rudd is now sworn in!!! Hoooorraayyyyyyyy
Some how I don’t think the next PM of Australia surname will not begin with a N or a T. LOLOLOLOL!!!
The reign of ‘Howard the Despicable’ is over!
Was that an intended double negative?
To steal a line form George Costanza – I think a great title for any book on the Howard Era would be “Its not a lie if you believe it”.
Its all about “perception” Pancho. Yes. And remember if its a “core or non-core” perception!!!
wont howards memoirs be written in invisible ink??
And you thought counting a few million votes was difficult.
Landslide win for Putin in Russian elections
Try counting 100,000,000
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/03/2107453.htm?section=world
Some how ‘Putinslide’ just doesn’t sound right
Gusface. That depends if it is a “core or non-core” biography
I am noticing more and more reports of envelopes received back being greater then envelopes issued.
If you wish to view all the scrutiny stats in one location click here
In theory this information reports what’s is outstanding for each electorate.
A theory for us Melbcity?
Here is a few examples where the number of envelopes receievd back is greater then the number issued.. there are more… this is just a sample..
ACT DIVISION – FRASER
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-102.htm
NSW DIVISION – BARTON
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-104.htm
NSW DIVISION – BENNELONG
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-105.htm
Declaration Vote Scrutiny Progress Absent Provisional Pre-Poll Postal Total
Envelopes Issued 5,506 780 5,852 5,154 17,292
Envelopes Received 5,499 780 4,764 5,978 17,021
Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny 45 0 8 16 0
Ballot Papers Counted 4,798 0 4,499 4,948
NSW DIVISION – BEROWRA
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-106.htm
Right,
swearing in is done. Time to get down to business – great to see the new P.M has rolled his sleeves up and gotten stuck right in. What I’m wondering is who will be the unofficial minister responsible for burying the collection of loathsome little jellybacks that is the Liberal party? I don’t want revenge on behalf of progressives, I want revenge on behalf of democracy and decency! We need a thorough post-mortem examination of the diseased creature that the little sucubus Howard has now slid away from. Every drop of blood, every dollar, every lie, every disgusting act of cowardice needs to be accounted for and I, for one intend give all the energy i have to exposing just how despicable each member of that gang has been over the past dozen years.
Howard sits on Jeanette’s lap lamenting the threat to his pwecious widdle legacy – that revolting creature needs to know that its our generation that will write the history books and once each of his obscenities have been catalogued, that book will need to be sold in a brown paper bag.
This isn’t hatred – it is sheer unadulterated outrage and when it all becomes too much and i need to vomit it out, Woolstonecraft will drown in it!
but what are your real feelings optimist??
Howard’s memoir: “A Rodent Reflects”
Ahh, Kev is now the PM. I’m sure he’ll be a good one as well – the right man in the right job at the right time.
I’m not concerned with further trashing Howard’s name – he was a scumbag but he’s now an irrelevance and the best way to treat him is to ignore him.
Who said the Governor General is just a figurehead?
Watching Sky News broadcast of the swearing in just now, Michael Jeffrey really turned the knife for poor old Peter Garrett.
The GG has taken to giving a little comment about the nature of the portfolio to the newly-sworn in Minister ..
So in the case of Penny Wong he said words to the effect: “Securing the future of the nation’s water supply is a vital task”.
To Peter Garrett, he said, words to the effect: “Fostering the nation’s artistic community is important work”. Not a word about his role as Environment Minister.
Swan…
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-247.htm
Declaration Vote Scrutiny Progress Absent Provisional Pre-Poll Postal Total
Envelopes Issued 7,243 1,469 4,653 2,465 15,830
Envelopes Received 5,993 1,469 4,066 3,727 15,255
Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny 18 0 1 5 0
Ballot Papers Counted 4,735 0 3,256 3,064
2465 Postal votes issued … 3,727 received back…
So what are you scrutineers saying about the postals received being more than the postals issued?
Are you suspecting some kind of fraud?
Is there some other explanation for these discrepancies?
Great moments in Australian history
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/ruddswornin.jpg
Glen, ESJ, Isabella, LTEP, Tabitha, Steven K, Nostradamus: enjoy the moment.
The number of ballot papers issued should have been known on or prior to election day. I fail to see why the number recorded as being returned back is greater.
I do not believe in the conspiracy theory more like a stuff up. But I do believe that this information should have been included in the media feed and also on the Votes by group type screens…
BUT I fail to see how and why the number received back is greater then the number issued.
Antony Green may have an explanation.. I do not other then a stuff up…
This is the information that I have been requesting…. This is the information that shows what is outstanding and what might be received. This should have been publishsed in the media feed but is not…
Looking at the AEC updates.
La Trobe looks confirmed lost.
Herbert is not looking good.
Solomon looks good.
242
Melbcity Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 9:54 am
If you take as look at say McEwan etc
My Theory on aec confusing figures is:
the envelopes issued represent those issued to voters in their division whereas
the postals counted represent ANY postal votes received by that Division including Postals relating to another Division ??
If this is so , then the aec web site is useless in tracking/forcasting close seats
Ron Brown.
Accoridng to the AEC site the information on the number of ballot papers issued is for the division and teh number received back by the division.
The number of abllot papers issued forms part of each pollling place/office return. This data should have been finalsied on or prior to election day.
I am very pleased that this information is available.
It is the information that i had requested from Steve Tully in the Victroiuan State election. Information that Tully refused to make available.
I am concerend that teh EAC might adopt the Tully approach and avoid providng the data. (I think there should be a break down of the absentee vots to show where they were recorded – This is information that use to be publishsed in the final returned).
In Victoria had this information been provided by Tully as expecetd then teh errors in his count/data-entry would not have occured. In his case it was a lack of due dillengence and his failure to respond in a timely fashion to re
Ron Brown.
According to the AEC site the information on the number of ballot papers issued is for the division and the number received back by the division.
The number of ballot papers issued forms part of each polling place/office return. This data should have been finalized on or prior to election day.
I am very pleased that this information is available. (And encourage the AEC to work on any problems idetified and incorporate this information in ist data feeds and Votes by vote type pages…
This is the information that I had requested from Steve Tully in the Victorian State election. Information that Tully refused to make available.
I am concerned that the AEC might adopt the Tully approach and avoid providing the data. (I think there should be a break down of the absentee votes to show where they were recorded – This is information that use to be published in the final returned).
In Victoria had this information been provided by Tully as expected then the errors in his count/data-entry would not have occurred. In his case it was a lack of due diligence and his failure to respond in a timely fashion to requests for polling statistics on the number of ballots papers issued.
I’m presuming there are army personnel serving overseas who are based in Townsville. Would their votes have been counted yet?
If you look at the AEC site the information on the number of ballot papers published is for the division and the number received by the division.
This information forms part of the poling place return and should have been finalised on or prior to election day (They do not issue postal votes on election day)
I am very happy that the AEC has published this information.
This is the same information that I had requested from steve Tully (Victoria) but Tully refused to make it available.
Had Tully provided similar statistics as requested his disastrous errors in the count/data entry process would have been readily identifiable and prevented.
I am concerned that the AEC might take the Tully approach and prevent this data form being published in future.
There should be a break down of the Absentee vote by location (It sue to be part f teh final election returns) I see no reason why it is not incorporated in the media feed and listed on the Votes by Voter type page.
I think we should ignore the declaration vote scrutiny progress, as it doesn’t make much sense. Just look at the % counted for each seat, given that about 5% won’t vote, and you should be able to draw conclusions about what can possibly happen, given current trends. At this stage, most counting has been pre-polls and postals, which favour the Tories, with not very much absentee counting yet.
Sorry for the multiple posts.. I thought the system had not updated properly.
Charlie all the voets shoudl have been properly accounted for on elction day Even those form Overseas… Each polling place is required to submitt a polling place return which outlines how many ballot papers they have issued. Postal votes where stop beinsing issued prior to election day…
The AEC should know exactly how many ballot papers have been issued the day after… Clearly there is something wrong… It needs review and fixing…
No Ron, the “envelopes issued” and the votes ultimately counted should match for the absent, pre-poll , and provisional tallies. The only area where there is likely to be a significant discrepancy is in the postals, where normally one finds some people obtaining a postal vote, but then not actually submitting one.
The number of “envelopes issued” relates specifically to applications for “declaration votes” applicable to the division concerned, not to votes for other divisions issued in that division.
Howard to release memoirs?
Bet he gets Henderson and Blainey to write it – any resemblance to the truth will be entirely coincidental.
Lord D… WHAT.., The data published shows what has been counted. The matches the published results on the votes by voter type page..
I would not ignore it.. Far from it. It is the basis of proper scrutiny of the count. Imagine if the Royal Mint printed money bout could not account for how much it printed and out in circulation.
I want an answer and the data corrected and more details break down on the absentee votes. All the data that is recorded on te Polling place return should be available.
I am very pleased the AEC has published in limited form this data.
Rod says :
the number of “envelopes issued” relates specifically to applications for “declaration votes” applicable to the division concerned,
not to votes for other divisions issued in that division.
Rod , can you explain what your last sentence means please ?
(since in McEwen the counted pre polls & postals are higher than the ‘received’
Rod yes the absentee pre-poll and provision should be 100% issued matched with returned…
Postals received back SHOULD NEVER be more then issued.. It is worth noting the percentage of postals issued to those returned and counted…
BUT if it is greater then something is wrong…
I was looking atb the percentage outstanding from the count. But I was surprised to see the number returned greater then issued…
Sorry I would like an explanation and I am not in the position of second guessing where the stuff up error is. That is the role of the AEC to explain.
Again I am very pleased the AEC is publishing this data . had Steve Tully don eso the Victorian Count would have been much much better..
Yes, but in the world where WWI isn’t fought, in 1954 there’s an exchange of nuclear weapons between Tsarist Russia and a democratic Germany expanding across Eastern Europe, and the entire northern hemisphere is left uninhabitable…
Has anyone seen any analysis on the impact, or lack thereof, of the Council Amalgamation issue here in QLD ?
Looking at the booths in the local council of Redcliffe, Labor enjoyed 14 – 15 % swings.
In Capricornia, a seat which was said to impacted by it, an overall 10% swing to Labor.
Rudd sworn in, and suddenly the world feels different, a sweet scent in the air – called democracy. Now we just have to get rid of all the dead fish. No doubt a few more will float to the surface over the coming months.
As for Howard, lets be fair, I think he did have greatness. To prove it:
A bad liar gets caught out easily
A good liar gets caught out rarely
A great liar keeps repeating his lie when caught out, until the listener is no longer sure what is true any more.
Truly, Little Johnny was great.
Petrie is Labor Again @ 275
Just shows that either:
1) QLD’ers aren’t stupid and can distinguish state/local from federal politics
2) QLD’ers are stupid and forgot about the amalgamations when they voted/after Beattie retired
275 Petrie is Labor again
Regarding Council amalgamations, I haven’t seen any analysis, but it can’t have been much of a vote changer.
I always thought it was a dead issue in the big urban conglomerations, where they made perfect sense. I was in Cairns years ago when the former Mulgrave Shire Council and Cairns City were amalgamated. Nobody was bothered except the Councillors; even the Council staff realised there was still plenty of work to do, and hence no threat to their jobs.
Where it might cause pain is precisely in the areas that need the reform most – small country towns with no industry and Council jobs being amoung the few safe ones left. Surely though, that would only matter in a few safe National Party seats. Given that even Herbert and other regional coastal seats still saw large swings to Labor, it seems to have been a fizzer.
IMO the Nationals kicked up a song and dance precisely because some of their own members were the threatened Councillors concerned. But that doesn’t mean they are owed a job for life. Many of those Councils only exist because the rest of us taxpayers massively subsidise them. And it isn’t just economic rationalism – they are living ghost-towns. Look at the social statistics for many small remote towns – all the young peope leave, and quality of life is miserable, because there is simply no reason to be there, but people are too afraid to move away. I know many people work hard in the country, and some towns are thriving. But we don’t pretend that every unviable industry in our cities must be kept alive at any cost. Why do we do it in the bush?
Latest AEC update from Dickson-Labor just 27 votes behind. And Labor is slowly increasing its lead in Bowman, out to 163 votes now. But Herbert looks like it is slipping away, Colbran is about 150 behind. I’m not sure Robertson or Solomon are quite all over yet, but Labor still has handy leads late in the count. No new numbers yet today on McEwen, so that one’s still in play too.
If Solomon, Robertson and Bowman all hold, and Dickson and McEwen are won, that’s a parliament of 86-62-2. And with so many new Labor members enjoying the benefit of encumbency next election, that really puts Labor in an extremely strong position next time around.
Danny (Off topic) I often wonder what would have been had the winners of WW1 conflicts not divided the Europe the way they had and had Russia succeeded in re-securing constantinople as the centre of the Orthodox religion. (The Turks captured Constantinople from the Greeks) The Crimean War (Zsar not Soviets)(In which so many streets in St kilda Victoria are named after) What if for example they did not happen … Was it an over reaction to the various power struggles.. Most of the current day conflicts in Eastern Europe can be related back to WW1 and even further back… I do not see any war as being a positive outcome let alone the current conflicts that we so readily portray as insurgents as opposed to combattants or freedom fighters…
I’d be willing to trade Herbert away to get rid of Dutton.
Sadly, Labor is 127 (not 27) votes behind in Dickson.
Another title suggestion for the memoirs:
‘Non-Core Pawn: Howard’s Role in the War on Terror’
Seems like the Queensland Libs have a couple of options left. Put all eight members on a rotating Leadership roster or find a compromise candidate that all can find acceptable.
The most likely compromise candidate would be Ray Stevens the former Gold Coast City Councillor and now member for Robina, but when the situation is a four all split and with the Santoro faction never showing any signs of compromise on any issue to date, a rotating roster might seem better. It would do nothing for stability but look at the number of CV’s that will proudly be bearing Leader of the Queensland Parliamentary Liberal Party. Who of the eight could resist a shot at being top of the tree so soon after getting into parliament?
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/sort-it-out-nelson-tells-flegg/2007/12/03/1196530531754.html
I hope Kevin Rudd drops the jingoism of being a “Queenslander”.
Sure Qld delivered us a Labor victory but with the exception of the Senate what the hell does ’state of origin’ have to do with running the country.
Does it help with Kevin’s mythology just like his family being share farmers?
Maybe the mythology does work on the public. But we have had Labor Prime Minster with humble backgrounds (like Chifley) and privilege backgrounds (like Whitlam).
At the end of the day PMs get judge on their actions (or inaction as with Mr Howard)
(OFF TOPIC)
Melbcity: I certainly agree with you that WWI was unnecessary, and unjustifiable given the costs. I just don’t think the alternatives histories are necessarily attractive, it’s impossible to know what would have happened in them.
four out of nine seats within 0.5% aare favouring the ALP at present. Landeryou’s Election Map
To find out how Amy votes are still to be counted you need to vies the scrutiny web page link on the AEC web site. (There is a AEC icon on the Landeryou’s Election Map which goes to the AEC vote summary page. The Scrutineers menu is located in the top section of the electorate page.
Note there is a discrepancy in the number of votes issued and the reported number returned. The ratio between counted and returned shows what is outstanding. The AEC have been notified but no reply received to date.
Antony Green any explaination? …. have ballots appeared from nowhere….
It could be that John was printing ballots in a hope of securing Bennelong
But is Swan that worries me more… Maybe the AEC is still issuing ballot papers 
… I think not…
#
282
Ferny Grover Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:24 pm
Sadly, Labor is 127 (not 27) votes behind in Dickson.
Labor will just lose Dickson by over 150 , Dutton has a big 2PP % lead in postal
Because the ordinary , absentee & pre poll 2PP % ’s are close between ALP & LCP
it is impossible for the ALP to catch up
Sad but true Ron. Dutton will be able to strut his stuff around Canberra (where he will no doubt be on Nelson’s front bench) for one more term. At least he will have to do some work – and hopefully show some uncharacteristic humility – in his seat if he wants to hold it next time.
The ABC data (Which is also accessible via the ABC icon next to the AEC icon on the Landeryou’s Election Map does not contain any information as to what is still to be counted. This is only available on the Scrutiny Web page or you can down load all 150 electorates stats here via a live screen scrape
I might publish a close seat scrutiny summary screen scrapper. Cut down on traffic load…
All the best.. Have fun…
Dutton is actually making up ground he was 50.07 ahead yesterday now he is 50.8 ahead today, the Dutman will be elected if the current flow of postals and pre-poll votes continues
Anything under 150 votes will go to a recount…
By the end of it Dutton will be ahead by more than 150 Melbcity IMHO.
That’s true Glen – but it doesn’t mean the good citizens of Dickson will be ably represented. Ummm….the Dutman??
Dutton ahead by 160 votes with 95% counted yeeha!
Well Ferny i suppose it remains to be seen whether a trade unionist is a better representative for the people of Dickson than a former police officer and minister.
Still his electorate if he wins will be on a knife edge in 2010.
Unionist? BOO! Unionists do bad stuff wear braces and are bullies.
What is it with Tories and trade unionists? I realise that John (I-seem-to-have-lost-my-seat) Howard had a pathological loathing of unions, but it’s sad that his party has blindly followed him down this path. And yes, Mr Dutton’s seat will be very very marginal. So his electorate can expect some attention for a change. Dutman……chuckle.
Its looking like Flynn, Solomon, Robertson and Bowman will go ALP (though Roberson is getting closer), and we’ll have 84-64-2.
Good result.
297
Pancho – not all but some do.
FG – I’m not saying all Unions are bad, just that they’ve got some rough sorts in there. Also i wonder if Dickson is set aside for Union candidates like what happened in Petrie with Yvette D’Ath getting pre-selected because she came from a Union that was reserved this seat to run a candidate of its choice in.
With only 15% of private sector workforce as Union members i think the ALP can find better candidates who aren’t all union members/officials IMHO.
Ferny, I saw some in an ad once, and they flicked off these lights in a hairdressers!
There will probably be yet another redistribution in Qld before 2010, since the state population is growing by one whole quota every three years. Talk about who will win what seat in Qld in 2010 is therefore a bit academic.
The Council amalgamations “issue” obviously died away very quickly. Labor would not have won Flynn, Blair and Dawson if it had still been running.
Any theories on why the big swing in North Qld didn’t deliver Herbert? It looked much more winnable than either Dawson or Leichhardt.
“Pancho – not all but some do.”
Glen, I know. I’ve DEFINITELY seen Joe McDonald wearing braces, and I challenge anyone to prove that he doesn’t.
We can call Dickson for Peter Dutton now, unfortunately. In 2004 the turnout was 95.14% – suggesting that there is unlikely to be many votes left to count. He’s safe.
I agree with Lefty E – it’s looking like 84 seats, with some hope left in McEwen.
Not enough your rights at work people Adam perhaps, or that Herbert still had its sitting member running while in Leichhardt and Forde this wasn’t the case.
Adam
Any idea which State the extra Qld seat will come from next time? Given it was NSW last time and WA is booming I’m guessing either SA or Vic?
Dickson is definitively lost for the reasons I bloged earlier
(Dutton is getting a 13% margin in the 2PP for postal votes so its mathematically impossible for the ALP to catch up as the 2PP % in the other voter types are close
Dawson had a sitting member and she got a huge swing against her, as did the members in Blair, Longman and Petrie. I dare say Lindsay is popular locally, but so is Colbran, so it’s a bit of a mystery. The Townsville Bulletin (a very conservative paper) wrote Lindsay off weeks before the election. Maybe Labor thought it was in the bag and diverted resources elsewhere.
Adam, will Colbran get another shot at it do you think?
I think Victoria is now growing faster than NSW, so Qld might get its new seat from NSW again.
Actually last week Joe Mc was on the news dressed as Santa delivering gifts to underpriverlidged families.
Shouldn’t have pressed submit. I was about to say that he, along with Tinley, Handshin, Daniels and Cocks, is one of the Labor candidates I’m particularly disappointed not to have in parliament.
Longman got redistributed too though Adam.
Blair was on a small margin of 5.5% if the swing was on Cameron was stuffed.
But there is a reason for Dawson the Nats are f’ed to put it bluntly they are a spent force IMHO, they’ll probably die a slow death not the quick and painless death of the Democrats.
Charlie, I know nothing about internal Qld ALP politics, so I have no idea.
319
Charlie – Tinley should have got Hasluck IMHO, Stirling was always going to be a tough ask they put their best candidate in a tough seat. Instead the ALP have a reject union deadbeat in Jackson back in Parliament while Maj. Tinley misses out, go figure.
OK to dowmload a live extract of the votes outstanding stats for Close seats only – click here
Labor people always wrongly assume the Liberals SOMEHOW care for ‘workers’
The fact is the Liberals ( & its predecessor the UAP) has ALWAYS represented the employer sector interest
Hence the liberals dislike for the workers representatives (the Unions)
which is camoflaged by pretending to be interested in family values & ‘individuals’
Solomon looks safe.
The gap to the Libs in Herbert is extending, now 119.
Adam how is it that McEwen has twice the number of constituents then Bass… I thought re-distributions were meant to be within a 10% variance…
Oops that is 108
Tollner is just 183 votes behind with 88% counted and he’s ahead 60-40 on postals, anything could happen Dave could hang on.
Herbert = Lavarack Barracks. Look at the Annandale booths.
Re 326
Tasmania has (and will likely always have) a fixed 5 seat representation in the HoR. This is part of the provisions of s24 of the Constitution. Giveb the state’s population, the Tas electorates have a much smaller no. of electors than mainland seats. It is my understanding that this effectively excludes Tasmania from the redistribution melting pot.
“how is it that McEwen has twice the number of constituents then Bass… I thought re-distributions were meant to be within a 10% variance…”
Tasmania has a mimimum of 5 seats due to being an original state. This is more than it would be entitled to on the basis of population alone, so the enrolment per seat in Tasmanian electorates is less than elsewhere.
307 [With only 15% of private sector workforce as Union members i think the ALP can find better candidates who aren’t all union members/officials IMHO.]
Sour grapes is a wonderful thing, glen. I thought a winning candidate was a good candidate. Know that’s a weird concept for Liberal supporters but that is the first test of how good a candidate is electorally speaking. All else follows.
“It is my understanding that this effectively excludes Tasmania from the redistribution melting pot.”
Boundaries within Tasmania can change due to internal demographic changes – most reccently in 1999.
“Labor people always wrongly assume the Liberals SOMEHOW care for ‘workers’”
What a bizarre statement. Labor people assume the exact opposite. What do you think the election was about?
Glen, the WA ALP quite rightly put the non-union candidate in Stirling, which is a more middle-class seat, and the ex-union candidate in Hasluck, which is a more working-class seat. Since the working-class areas swung and the middle-class areas (broadly speaking) didn’t, we won Hasluck and didn’t win Stirling.
Labor has been a bit unlucky in WA. We got a statewide swing of 2.3%, and every seat except Cowan and Swan swung towards us. Yet we finish up net one down.
Oh I dunno Steve, I’ve known quite a few useless candidates on both sides who nonetheless won their seats. as for Glen’s comments – this victimisation of unionists must stop. One of the reasons that the Coalition lost office is because of this spiteful, exclusionary attitude towards those groups they didn’t agree with or who were seen to be different. It’s time to pull the country together and move on.
Steve @ 322
I think you just contradicted the history of input in this blog (with the exception of Glen & his types).
“I thought a winning candidate was a good candidate”.
I haven’t seen any of the party faithful here say a good word for a Coalition sitting member. If they have it was through gritted teeth.
Join Santa’s Union
http://www.union-network.org/unisite/sectors/commerce/Multinationals/Wal-Mart_Santa_Claus_did_not_shop_at_their_stores.htm
I paticulalry like the German reference in here. Those nasty Germans have UNIONS! – I bet they wear braces.
check the ministry photo bludgers!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/03/2107982.htm
The ruddster did it!! He brought that tricky bastard down, against considerable odds.
Howard = GAWWWWN!
Still scratching myself in disbelief a week later…
C’mon DLP – there have been many nice things said about Petro Georgiou. May the Coalition find many more like him!
Oh – No!!
It’s a whole town full – and they’re demonstrating!
http://dankjaergaard.blogspot.com/2006/12/santa-claus-union-of-kiev.html
Hey, Adam!
What do you think about my predictions about “Flynn”, “Dawson” and “Capricornia” now.
I wasn’t far off was I ?
If the “Council Amalgamation” issue had any legs at all, then it would have surfaced very much so in those three electorates, which I confidently predicted it wouldn’t.
The only people pushing the issue were the traditional National supporters and beneficiaries from a hundred years of largess on the public teat.
True FG and I stand corrected but it doesn’t change my argument which is also yours.
That not all elected to Parliament are the best for the job but that’s politics.
To succeed you are a political animal at Branch level all the way through.
You have to a robust ego, be impervious to criticism, show no empathy for you competition, be willing to mislead, be willing to knife friend or foe and cover up all these short comings with rhetoric.
Cream does not always rise to the top in these circumstances
Someone at the aec is a Liberal cynic
Sadly the gains labor has made in Solomon , Herbert , Bowman & Dickson is BECAUSE non postal votes are being counted . It is illusionary
The 2PP advantage in postals the Liberals have approximately is
Solomon 18%
Herbert 11%
Dickson 13%
Bowman 7% but in prepolls
So the todate count leads are false hope
Of the 9 doubtfuls if one calculates each voter type of uncounted of 2PP % votes
Labor wins Flynn & Robertson
Libs win 5 seats
under 100 votes in it:
Solomon (libs in front by 79 ) & Bowman (Labor in front by 29)
342
Then there’s the theory that political organisations are like septic tanks . . .
Sadly DLP, cream doesn’t rise – but turds float – in politics. And it seems that only when the government front bench has a critical mass of turds (the turd quotient?) do the public flush them from office.
FG – brilliant
Now that is visual metaphor for all time.
Spot on regarding the last flush over a week ago. To continue a theme, whilst the effulent has gone the smell might be around for a while. Keen to see how the new air freshener will improve the throne room.
The air is smelling sweeter already DLP.
I notice that the Nats are so bereft of talent (and so loathsome towards Barnaby Joyce) that they elected Nigel Scullion as deputy to Warren Truss even though Scullion is not actually a National Party member (he’s a Country Liberal member).
Ron Brown, I hope your’e getting your jollies by this counting in close seats. Given that the libs are in power NOWHERE, perhaps that extra few seats might give you a warm glow as your party sails into oblivion…
I prefer to enjoy the fact the Kevin Rudd has been sworn is as the new PM!!
“turd quotient” – very perceptive FG
Ron
Good theory except Jason Young is getting 51%+ of postals in Bowman. I expect the pre poll numbers will get closer.
Can’t see Laming winning from here.
Cmon FG at least Nigel Scullion made Senate QT more interesting when he shouted his answers lol that was hilarious.
BTW the LCP members like Tollner and Scullion ect sit in both Liberals and Nationals caucus or so my understanding goes.
Good to see you Possum! And thankyou for your discerning eye. Feel free to use the term.
Glen, the rest of the party was just hoping that practice would lead to improvement.
Glen, I beleive the CLP members sit with the Libs in the Reps and the Nats in the Senate, though they are a seperate party organisation (as are the Qld Nats incidentally).
What is it with this
HOWARD, John Winston (Previous Member) Liberal
He is 2113 votes behind McKEW, Maxine (Labor) and, as far as I can work out, there are 2989 votes to be counted (no updates since 30/11/07). That’s according to http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-105.htm
Surely it’s time for him to do the right thing and say uncle?
Quite correct FG, and I believe the CLP (NT) is a good model that the conservative parties of Queensland could follow IMHO.
Viggo, somehow I doubt he will do the honourable thing and concede. Maxine (on whom I won $124 and who I will love forever) has already claimed the seat.
viggoP @ 355 – if/when he does, what’s the bet he doesn’t mention maxine’s name?
Glen, I’ve said in earlier posts that a merger would just mean a National takeover of the Libs in Qld. In my view the Libs need a complete brand differentiation from Seeny et al if the conservatives are to be a force in Qld. There is no way the Liberal voters of the great southeast will ever again vote for a National Party premier. So, until the Libs get their collective act together and begin to recruit some decent candidates, the ALP will reign unchallenged in the Sunshine State.
A quick question for this knowlegable thread.
Why do Parliamentary Secretaries get sworn in? Do they have the same responsibilities to the Crown as Ministers?
Thanks in advance for the answer.
360 Some info at http://www.houseforthenation.gov.au/explore/ahn03_p7.html
DLP – parliamentary secretaries, though junior to ministers in the government structure, receive a commission from the crown, as do ministers.
FG – That Nats can never be the senior partner in Queensland State politics in any Coalition IMHO, they’ve gone from 49 seats in 1986 to 17 seats in 2006 and the ALP has 59 seats where on earth will the Coalition find the other 22 seats it needs to win back government, the Nats can’t do this only the Liberals can win the majority of these seats. I dont think the Nats can win seats on the Sunshine coast.
Once the Nats disappear the Liberals can be the one force in Queensland.
Parly Secs are members of the Executive Council the same as ministers, so they get sworn in and and they are styled “The Honourable” like ministers. So now we have (get this) The Honourable Greg Combet, The Honourable Bill Shorten, The Honourable Maxine McKew and The Honourable Dr Mike Kelly. Ahhh.
Still Adam they can’t beat The Right Honourable John Winston Howard.
Except he isn’t. He’s only an Hon.
The last Rt Hon in Australian politics was Ian Sinclair. It was abolished in 1983.
Actually he is Adam.
http://www.pmo.gov.my/WebNotesApp/PMMain.nsf/f51b39741cd58c9448257084000a19c8/f1b55d7d0333c8f048256fdc002a16f7?OpenDocument
THE RT.HON.JOHN HOWARD
PRIME MINISTER OF AUSTRALIA
No he’s not. That website is incorrect.
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/members/member.asp?id=ZD4
And now we have The No Longer Honourable John Howard. Ahhh ++
Glen – and there lies the dilemma for conservative politics (and indeed for good governance) in Qld. I don’t see how merging the 2 parties will solve this problem. The dominant party machine in Qld is still the National Party, which is why a merger would simply be a NP takeover of the Libs. The Nats would still want those with a Nat heritage to be the Leader, and they would dominate the policy debates. This will never be acceptable to the voters of Qld (especially in the populated centres of the southeast). The Libs need a strategy, (and the leadership team to do it), to grow – and that will mean moving away from the Nats, in policy terms at the very least.
The title is retained for life. Whether a particular politician is in fact honourable is of course a matter of opinion.
Well Well i was wrong Adam and you were right but why on earth would the ALP abolish this distinction???
He could always be, the Retired John Howard.
Maybe in the old days they used “Rt Honourable” to mean “Honourable? yeah right!” Its the only interpretation I can think of that makes sense.
For a discussion of Rt Hon check out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Right_Honourable
I think you had to be appointed to the privy council to be a Right Hon.
Glen
“I dont think the Nats can win seats on the Sunshine coast.”
Tell that to Fiona Simpson.
Still the Canadians still have it automatically for PMs.
The Canucks have it right IMHO.
It’s official. Howard’s superior economic management claims were a prime example of Goebellism writ large:
http://business.theage.com.au/complacent-johns-decade-of-neglect/20071202-1eef.html
377
ruawake – she musta got lucky lol.
Rt Hon signifies you are a member of the British Privy Council. All British titles and honours were abolished for Australia in 1983 by Bob Hawke.
The only exception is that the Lord Mayors of the capital cities are traditionally styled “The Rt Hon” while they are in office, but they don’t keep the title for life.
Canada has its own Privy Council and Canadian Rt Hons are members of it, not the British Privy Council. Australia doesn’t have a Privy Council. New Zealand however still allows its PMs to be appointed to the British Privy Council, so Helen Clark is a Rt Hon. The NZ Labour Party is much less republican than the ALP for some reason.
Adam but what about Canada??
PMs can be Rt Hon for Life, without PC??
The Right Honourable Stephen Joseph Harper
PC MP MA
ruawake – she musta got lucky lol.
Nah she inherited the seat from her dad.
Like McClelland
Last I heard, Fiona Simpson was bragging that she’d never ‘got lucky’ in her life….being a good Christian girl an’ all.
Doug MClelland was a Senator, so Robert did not inherit Barton from him. The only members who were preceded in the same seat by their fathers are Joel Fitzgibbon and Harry Jenkins.
Well for all this talk about Toff tories, Downer didn’t inherit his seat from his dad.
In the current ministry:
Simon Crean is the son of Frank Crean, Deputy PM in the Whitlam govt.
Martin and Laurie Ferguson are sons of Jack Ferguson, Deputy Premier of NSW
Joel Fitzgibbon is the son of Eric Fitzgibbon MHR
Senator Nick Sherry is the son of Ray Sherry MHR
Senator Joe Ludwig is the son of Bill Ludwig, national president of the AWU
So Glen, are you saying that Downer’s preselection was solely on merit and had nothing to do with his family name??
Sir Alexander Downer was MHR for Angas 1949-64, a seat in the same general area as Mayo. Sir Alec was in turn the son of Senator Sir John Downer. SA has a long history of dynastic politics on the conservative side – Playfords, Butlers, McLeays, Downers, Wilsons etc
But Downer has been the only member for Mayo from 1984-.
Ferny Grove 379
Now that the mask has fallen, the charade of the Great Leader’s economic savvy will now be thoroughly ridiculed by many people who know what a con job it was.
Howard and his cronies were so long basking in the reflected glory of a genuflecting media that they really should have been using 100+ sunblock! They waltzed around believing their own spin and took every opportunity to tell us how magnificent they were and how fortunate we were, every man,woman and child, to live under their benign rule.
Ain’t lookin’ so good after the tumbrels transported them out of office, huh?
#
348
Andrew Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 3:17 pm
Ron Brown, I hope your’e getting your jollies by this counting in close seats. Given that the libs are in power NOWHERE, perhaps that extra few seats might give you a warm glow as your party sails into oblivion…
I prefer to enjoy the fact the Kevin Rudd has been sworn is as the new PM!!
Your problem is you can not handle the reality that in the 9 seats , ALP may only win 2 (up to 4 if they win the 2 cliffhanghers)
The fact that I may be either an ALP or LCP supporter does NOT change my analysis
As I have always voted ALP should embarrass you in your lack of even handed judgement of vote counting
Talking about lineage in politics is rocky territory for all sides of politics so tread carefully.
Tories don’t have a mortgage on born to rule but at least our ruling class in Labor has some sense of social responsibility.
True KR…we the people gave their highnesses a Royal Flush
I hope Rudd and Swan are up for a 2009 recession.
I didn’t say Downer inherited his seat directly from his father. But he was certainly greatly helped by being a Downer. Let me hasten to say I see nothing wrong with that. I quite admire political dynasticism. Families like the Downers, the Anthonys, the Beazleys and the Creans, with long traditions of public service, are a good thing IMHO.
..cont’d
It reminds me of Rory Robertson’s quip: the economy has done more for this government than the government has done for the economy.
‘Bout sums it up, really.
398
So you hope there’s a recession in 2009 do you Glen? That’s not very sporting!
Providing they are talented i have absolutely nothing wrong with them either Adam.
And don’t forget the Court Dynasty in WA where Richard suceeded Sir Charles in the seat of Nedlands.
We’re all thankful that Joh’s boy failed to create a dynasty in Qld
Ah, FG you’ve done a nice variation on the Possum metaphor, (his was the sh!t sandwiches the new opposition leader will be forced to consume).
It never ceases to amaze me how people will accept any falsehood while it’s the dominant paradigm, no matter how flagrantly illogical or absurd, and just as easily reject it when the tide runs out against it.
But you’re so right about the dunny overflowing; it was time to flush ‘em away.
“I’ve got more out of alcohol than it’s gotten out of me.” (Churchill)
Current Election results (including scrutiny data of whats still to be counted – Some additional votes not accounted for… all in the one location.
Why is Solomon recording more prepoll votes issued then received back and Why is the number of postal votes received greater then the number issued…
Still no answers to these puzzelling discrepancies…
Votes appear from no where and some vptes disappear.. Is it all only an illussion of democratic process
On the other hand Putin has won an overwhelming vote of confidence. It is without doubt that Putin has the support of 60%+ of his Russian constituents. Inspite the USA’s ongoing unfounded complaints about the Russian poll. (I think USA elections should be subject to international monitoring and review.)
Putin is a very impressive politican… If I had a vote I would vote for him.. Well done Vlad
… and to think Melbourne has the pride of place and envy of other cities being a Sister City to St. Petersburg.
So True KR. In an earlier post (345) I referred to the ‘turd quotient’ theory of political demise. Possum concurred (349) so it must have some validity.
Well done Ross Gittens. Nothing like some facts to puncture a Howard claim. From ABS 5220, here is percentage growth in real GDP per capita from 1993:
1993 = 1.8%
1994 = 2.5%
1995 = 3.9%
1996 = 3.3%
1997 = 3.3%
1998 = 3.4%
1999 = 3.1%
2000 = 3.8%
2001 = 1.2%
2002 = 2.8%
2003 = 2.4%
2004 = 4.2%
2005 = 3.4%
2006 = 3.4%
2007 = 3.1%
First, note that the economy was recovering strongly (+3.9%) when Howard took over in 1996. Arguably he actually cut too deep and reduced growth. Second, if you took out Qld and WA, we would have been in recession in 2001. So, without teh resources boom, Howard’s record was quite average. He was very lucky.
Can Mike Kelly retain the “Colonel” in his title given that he is still an active officer in the army reserve? I am assuming that he has retained his commission.
Wouldn’t his full title be The Honourable Colonel Dr Michael J. Kelly, AM?
“Dr Kelly, 47, who retired from the army as a colonel but remains an active reserve officer…”
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/local/general/somalia-to-edenmonaro-how-mike-kelly-fought-a-murderous-warlord-all-the-way-to-a-firing-squad/1072581.html
Was Malcolm with Rddy?
AUSTRALIA has ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd signed the instrument of ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in his first act after being sworn in this morning.
The ratification will come into force in 90 days.
“This is the first official act of the new Australian Government, demonstrating my Government’s commitment to tackling climate change,” Mr Rudd said
Putin is a neo-Stalinist thug and these elections were fraudulent from start to finish. It’s not hard to win an election when the main opposition party has been barred from participating and you control all the media. I no longer consider Russia to be a democracy at all. If you can’t see that MelbCity you are a bigger fool than I thought.
Fagin, there’s a limit to what will fit on a business card!
Ron Brown,
I greatly appreciate and enjoy your vote count analysis and prognoses. Keep up the fine work, please.
I hope we’ll be seeing widespread redistributions to fix the egregious numerical inequality among electorates. I don’t believe that they have been gerrymandered in the Bjelke-Peterson sense of the word, but these significant disparities make a farce out of one-person-one-vote value.
Adam, I thought MelbCity was being sarcastic. Phrased like Borat…
Don’t forget to imprison all the major opposition figureheads. That’s an important step too.
Were you being sarcastic, MelbCity? I don’t think he was. We have argued these matters before in relation to Ukraine. I think he is a genuine Putin dupe – a “useful idiot” as they were called in Stalin’s day.
Well Adam, if thats the case I’m with you. Putin scares me. He’s about as democratic as Mugabe.
408
Socrates Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 4:26 pm
Well done Ross Gittens. Nothing like some facts to puncture a Howard claim. From ABS 5220, here is percentage growth in real GDP per capita from 1993:
Socrates , the inflation rate under Keating at 1996 was under 3% and falling
THEREFORE interest rates would fall whoever was the PM in 1997
whereas inflation has been rising in 2007 & is now 3% & still rising when Howard leaves …indicating more interest rate increase
Howard was lucky to fall between these 2 inflation bands (and get a mining boom as well)…statistically therefore Howard’s record is not of a good economic manager
I have directed my patented Blog Irony Sniffer at Melbcity 406 and detected a big zilch reading. Which makes it a very odd post indeed.
Sorry I missed the after party Rates. Was it subdued, or did the national win sweep everyone along?
Man, he signed Kyoto fast. Some right wing commentators are gonna explode
I think it would be Colonel the Honourable Dr Mike J. Kelly AM.
Adam,
did you forget Kelly Hoare and Bob Brown?
Who could forget Kelly The? Probably the worst federal MP since Bruce Goodluck. I didn’t count her because mercifully she no longer “serving.” Some dynasties are a bad idea.
411
Adam – Better Putin than the Communists.
Ron Brown, I agree. Just to be clear, the stats I posted were for economic growth, not inflation – it was growth in real per capita GDP. The point of my post was that the per capita increase in GDP under Howard was not much different to under Keating’s second term. So the difference was not that great for most individuals. Groups who didn’t get a lot of kickbacks from Howard (eg couples without children) were probably slightly worse off under Howard than Keating. And as you say, inflation got worse.
Crispy – The atmosphere was defintely set to “cathartic party”. No-one seemed too offended Bailey hadn’t got up. It was getting much quieter by about 12 so I left then.
Glen, only marginally so.
According to the latest AEC results Labor nationally has won 52.88% of the two party vote. Seats wise the AEC have said Labor has won 80 seats and is ahead in 4. However Bowman, Robertson and Solomon Labor’s lead is less than 0.2%. I would not be suprised when counting is finished Labor only wins 81 seats. Interesting enough a 5.6% swing to Labor according to the Mackerras pendulum done before the federal would have allowed Labor an extra 21 seats, they held 60 seats before the election.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mackerras_federal_election_pendulum%2C_2006
There’ll be no recession in 2009. That’s just claptrap peddelled by $weetie, and he doesn’t know his arse from his elbow. Whilst a number of economic indicators point to a scenario of a ’scary recession’, economies don’t function like they used, like in J Ho’s day, there are no levers, like $weetie likes to think, So a recession leading to a depression is unlikely. Unless there is a wages policy which reduces actual-take home, in-the-hand, money.
In 2003, Hanan Ashrawi was awarded the Sydney Peace Prize. Bob Carr stood his ground on this one in spite of many protests from anti-Palestinian elements.
Here’s an excerpt from Margo Kingston’s “Still not happy, John” (a great biography of the man):
“In a stunning illustration of how politicised the Australian Defence Force has become since Tampa and September 11, Colonel Mike Kelly, an Australian Army officer serving in Baghdad, emailed Carr in early October demanding he abandon his support for Ashrawi: ‘It would be hard to explain to a soldier who has just lost both legs in a terrorist attack why an Australian State Premier (supposedly an ally in this war) has been in effect comforting the enemy.’ His email naturally found its way onto the front page of the Australian.”
Dutman is pulling ahead and is now 184 votes ahead of the local union hack.
The Union hack is cuter!
The AEC on differences between issues and received postal vote envelopes
Putin better than communists??
How?
The only difference is he is ensuring his allies do benefit…just like someone who recently lost government.
And don’t think I support communists because they wiped out my whole lineage because we were white Russians
MelbCity’s constant allegations of foul play at the AEC (and also the VEC) are getting rather tiresome. Given his comments above on the Russian “elections,” it seem obvious that he would rather live in a one-party state where election results are known in advance and there is no tiresome vote-counting.
Off Topic
President Hugo Chávez Admits Defeat on Constitutional Referendum
In a close vote, Venezuela’s citizens rejected a
constitutional referendum that would have abolished term
limits, allowed Mr. Chávez to declare states of emergency for
unlimited periods and increased the state’s role in the
economy, among other measures.
Read More:
http://www.nytimes.com/?emc=na
Democracy in action
425
Socrates Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 4:39 pm
Ron Brown, I agree. Just to be clear, the stats I posted were for economic growth, not inflation -
yes Socrates , I added inflation comparisons to support your view
Net wealth is gained by the 2 factors subject to “funding”
But to bring “funding” as a subject for comparison makes Howard look even worse
A country’s wealth is earned partly like any business does: Sales GP less expenses
1996 Australia’s current account deficit cum. export $ less import $ = $181 Billion
2007 Australia’s current account deficit cum. export $ less import $ = $543 Billion
DESPITE the mining boom , Australia is an economic basket case on these figures
As a % of GDP , the $543 Billion is over 6% of GDP (7th worst debt in the world !!)
This is Howard’s REAL LEGACY
Why did not rudd mention it….hello , hello , he wanted to win the election
Agree again Ron Brown. I’m not saying Howard was an economic vandal – he “did all right” as they said in a memorable Yes Minister episode. But Gittens was right to say he was/got complacent. Looking at the combination of economic figures, it seems to me that his best years really were up to 2001. After seeing us through the Asian crisis and 2001 recession, he coasted on the resources boom, and this is when inflation started again. He can hardly say the inflationary impact of the skill shortage was unexpected either. The Business Council of Australia was warning of it in the 2004 campaign. One organisation I was involved in identified it as a looming problem in 2001 and started training programmes then! (but when the industry as a whole is under supplied, other firms just poach the people).
Wilkie is 32 votes behind now.
He’s coming back!
Well Saul Eslake estimated the other day that we had a 33% risk of recession in the next three years. Yet some Liberal pluggers are already quietly hoping for it so that Rudd will lose. It shows how much they care about the nation’s future, or indeed “Howard’s battlers”. Every millionaire for themselves is more like it.
All parties out of power hope for recessions, preferably a few months before the next election. It’s regrettable but inevitable in a party-political system.
425
Socrates Says:
“So the difference was not that great for most individuals. Groups who didn’t get a lot of kickbacks from Howard (eg couples without children) were probably slightly worse off under Howard than Keating. And as you say, inflation got worse.”
Singles, and parents of young adult kids were worse off under Howard.
No Family Tax Benefits, No Baby Bonuses, Unwanted expensive Private Health “Tax” including 30% age loadings in the case of many 40-somethings, private heath tax hitting young graduates, because of wage inflation, skyrocketing increases to HECs debts which include annual interest charges etc. And superannuation in many cases reducing in value in real terms. Tax-cuts were always subtabntially less than the increases in just the basic mandatory private health insurance premiums, let alone inflation or interest rates. One of the reasons Gen-Y 20-somethings disliked Howard/Costello so much was they would get a 2% pay-rise and between both private health premium increases and HECs debt interest, would always take home less.
And pensions much reduced in real terms, the chronically disabled even had substantial cuts. Commonwealth Payments to States/Territories were reduced by about 2% of GDP, which obviously reduced services and infrastructure nationwide, or people wouldn’t be whining about it so much coast-to-coast.
Dont know who got invited to Howard’s economic boom-boom parties, but there are plenty I know who didn’t, and are more than “slightly” worse off, and feel (rightly or wrongly) they have been over-taxed to pay for the “baby-boomers” and the “baby-makers”. I can only guess these demographic groups are numerically small, and their votes would never count enough to make a difference.
Rain,
Good points; singles especially were realy slugged under Howard. I am over 40 and admit I benefitted from the house price inflation. I do feel sorry for those under 30 though, who were economically done over by Howard policies and must struggle more than normal to buy a house. It is a national problem that needs fixing. Otherwise the only recourse left to the young will be to demand higher wages to match, leading to a high inflation episode and probably recession.
430 Glen – one has to say that well 52.5% of the Australian electorate don’t believe your crap re union hacks.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/03/2108345.htm
Huzzah
One of the stupidest pillars of the Howard regime toppled in seconds.
Wilkie 29 behind.
Wilkie, go you good thing!!!!!
So we have signed the protocol but let me get this right did i not read in the paper that most of the signatories have gone above their agreements, and is it not true that our State governments are busily doing the opposite by building more freeways, more coal fired power stations and desalination plants. To me the rhetoric has changed that is what is different.
Left E, @ 445
A great day – there seems to be a lot of them recently.
I’m still not sure why howard, with all his rat instincts, let Kyoto go. Why he did not ratify it and get moving on carbon trading scheme is something of a mystery.
Was he that dumb? That much in trall of bush?
marky mark
Read and learn
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol
Albert F: Howard was and still is a climate skeptic.
Good riddance to his old and outdated views. He has already put us 10 years behind the rest of the world.
Marky Marky
You are quite right. The energy, infrastructure and economic actions that are the inevitable outcomes of the funding system created by Howard’s disastrous environmental policies (no Federal funding for public transport, no increase in renewable energy targets) will take some time to turn around. Lets be grateful that JW, the environmental sceptic, has finally been turfed out before he could do any more damage. It will take years to turn around Howards wrong direction on climate change. But at least we have a sane PM now.
So Howard is to blame for more freeways, pulp mills and desalination plants? No but Yes in regards to doing nothing regarding policy settings and targets. To me the State LABOR governments are also doing very little.
LaTrobe disappears from the Close radar
To paraphrase another, rather more sensible man named Winston,
Signing Kyoto isn’t the solution to global warming,
It isn’t even the beginning of the solution,
But it is the end of the denial
454 – Howard is to blame for not ratifying Kyoto and spending about 10 x more money on government advertising, then on any policies to assist renewable energy.
#
439
Asanque Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 5:33 pm
Wilkie is 32 votes behind now.
He’s coming back!
Sadly Asanque he won’t just make it by 150 votes
there’s only 4700 odd ordinary votes left & he’s only winning 50.29% of these
whereas the absentees & pre polls are larger 2PP margins in favor of LCP
Hopefully there were huge ALP voters in the last part of the last booth counted !
I agree, but we have signed the agreement now what major policy settings will change as a result. I’m looking forward to hearing or should i say not hearing because little will result.
Union hacks, union hacks, riding through the Glen
Union hacks, unions hacks, a band of noble men (and women)
Feared by the bad
Loved by the good
Union hacks, union hacks, unions hacks
Union hacks, union hacks, riding through the Glen
Union hacks, unions hacks, a band of noble men (and women)
Feared by the bad
Loved by the good
Union hacks, union hacks, unions hacks, amen.
“Michael”?
“Michael“?
The bastard who used to bash me up at school was a “Michael”: Mick “Basher” Burns.
If I’d have known Rudd’s middle name was Michael, I wouldn’t have voted for him.
Never trust a Michael. That’s been my motto throughout life and it hasn’t done me any harm at all.
I feel conned.
i was slightly surprised to see that Peter Garrett is the oldest of the 20 Labor ministers. perception is a funny thing hey.
Peter was regarded as a big plus in the youth vote(which he was) but he really is getting toward elderly age.
John Faulkner to me seems like a wise old owl of the Party, but he is younger than Garrett.
just an interesting little sidelight i thought.
I am informed that the narrowing in Swan is the result of a miscounted bundle of 100 votes.
HarryH – who is the tallest of them all?
Such a killjoy you are William
By which I mean the correction of a miscounted bundle of 100 votes.
Neo, i think Garrett is the tallest for Labor, but Dolly Downer in heels just pips him for the Libs.
Ah, I see, I apologise William. That’s good news for Kim, but it means there is no actual momentum towards him in the count, which I suppose is bad news.
Old Tom,
A couple of pages back, you remarked about the lack of appropriate 2PP votes, when a candidate from outside the two major blocs becomes a serious challenger.
I suspect the problem is that this decision has to be taken prior to polling day, because the initial 2PP count is decentralised to individual booths. By the time it emerges that this is a mistake, it isn’t possible to communicate with each booth and/or ask them to redo the count. Since it is an unofficial 2PP estimate, it probably isn’t justified to re-do the complete count (with all the other more pressing tasks, Senate votes, checks of absentees, postals,provisionals etc.), before the formal allocation of preferences after all the primaries are in – i.e. after the last date for postals, this Friday.
While the case for an independent-National 2PP estimate in Calare was reasonable, I doubt that anyone figured that the National was in with a fighting chance against Tuckey in O’Connor. Conversely, there might have been an argument for doing the 2PP allocation in Forrest as an Independent-Liberal contest, but that’s not how the seat turned out.
Thank you for your earlier insight about Corangamite and the effective campaign by YRAW. I spent my childhood and early teens in that area, and our home booth was one that fitted your description a small rural booth with about 400 votes. In one particularly memorable election in my childhood the ALP vote at the booth was 15. My grandfather contested Corangamite in 1919.
MM, the feds are ultimately responsible here. Under constitutional law, when the feds use the external affairs powers, they may enact domestic law to enforce our obligations under those international agreements. You may recall the Franklin dam case as an example of use of the special external powers the Cth has. (It was tested in the High Court and Tasmania lost.)
The fact that Howard refused to ratify Kyoto meant the states had, as a result, no legal obligation to do anything. Now with new Commonwealth legislation under Rudd, the states, insofar as they are involved/responsible for example, building new coal fired power stations, will be forced to comply with said new legislation.
Your grandfather was Edward Malone, Labor candidate for Corangamite in 1919?
http://www.smh.com.au/cartoons/
Choice
Thanks HarryH #468 – just what I wanted to know.
No, military rank comes first so its Colonel, The Honourable Dr….”
Four of the six steps to ratify Kyoto Agreement done today. Rudd will end up doing more by Christmas than the Tories managed to do all year. Unless the Tories count losing an election as their major achievement of the year.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/rudd-ratifies-kyoto-protocol/2007/12/03/1196530552193.html
Watched most of the swearing-in online. Like others (eg news.com) I was taken by the sight of toddlers escaping their non-parliamentary parents in the adjoining room, and playing on chairs/floors. Shades of Camelot?
My wife quipped: ‘the kids should enjoy it whilst they can: they won’t be seeing much of their ministerial dad/mum from now on’.
Also noticeable are headlines, eg AFR, ‘unions warn bosses not to rush AWAs’. In a sense the labour movement IS back in town. The difference is a Rudd government will consult with both sides, whereas the unions were frozen out from day one, understandably but regrettably, in the Coalition government.
Heather Ridout now seems like a diplomat and a tactician compared to the Hendys of the world. Knott I understand, he went hard to extract concessions and to claim some kind of high ground in future mining employer – government discussions.
I doubt he will chose to use either Colonel or Dr. I think he will be The Hon Mike Kelly AM.
Glen at 307 says:
FG – I’m not saying all Unions are bad, just that they’ve got some rough sorts in there
Glen, and I suppose all business men are paragons of virtue in your world, can I just mention a few names for you old son, and you can give me your feedback:
Alan Bond
Rodney Adler
Richard Pratt
Do I need to continue, have an original thought and get off the union bashing band wagon!
The Honorable one, very similar to a Dads Army episode, Sergeant Wilson is now the Honorable one whilst poor old Mainwarring stays as he is.
Oh Dear,
Gridlock Campbell has hit the panic button and decided if a long campaign was good for Howard then it must be good for him.
Hope the billboard explains why Minippi Parklands are drying up even though it has began raining again or why he promised rate rises no more than inflation but has been unable to keep the promise. Maybe it was just a noncore promise.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/cando-time-as-kevin07-moves-on/2007/12/03/1196530543794.html
Ross Vasta nominates for Brisbane Council ward.
Ross Vasta ought to nominate for State Leader of the Liberal Party. Of the federal MPs unseated in the Brisbane area last weekend he was the most personable by a long way.
ABC on Swan: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/03/2108414.htm?section=justin
They don’t have your inside knowledge William.
Make the most of the drinks at the Lodge Labor, possible recession on the way or should i say depression, not to be pessimistic but the next one will be terrible.
Thirty per cent of population working casually, massive foreign debt and unemployment statistics which hide the truth considering you only have to work 2 hours in a fortnight not to classified, wondering if Labor will change this statistical measurement inequity bet you it does not.
I will urge all the banks to take care and think long and hard before putting up interest rates Wayne Swan
Yep who is he kidding, to think that the banks actually care about people. What next.
Barry Cassidy still muck deep in Matt Prices Blood
Steve 476 “Unless the Tories count losing an election as their major achievement of the year.”
Well, it was their achievement that did the counntry the most good.
Watching ABC news and now 7.30 report. Swan is going well IMO, dealing with the inflation/recession risk rearing its ugly head on day one. Great legacy JHo.
(Expletive deleted – PB) off K Jin
fu(koff K Jin
From me too K Jin you little pr*ck!
Pathetically, K Jin lives in an alternative reality in which his views are shared by other commenters.
If a recession happens elsewhere in the world it will affect Australia, to suggest Howard is to blame is wrong.
But i will say is that Howard Government has through it policies made the next recession a depression. Debt out of control. asset and government land sales, capital gains taxes reductions on property.
Nonetheless Labor has also not helped through its policy of negative gearing in the 1980’s. Only one way out of making the next recession less harsh go back to government ownership of assets, that way profit does not determine employment losses and less demand.
Adam
There have been a couple of posts on this site re tory dynasties in SA here (Butlers, Playfords, Downers, etc) but I understand the new MHR for Port Adelaide, Mark Butler, is a descendant of Sir Richard Butler onetime “tory” premier of SA. I’m sure that you have this covered somewhere on your website. (I had a quick look there but couldn’t find any reference to this)
#
464
William Bowe Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 6:25 pm
I am informed that the narrowing in Swan is the result of a miscounted bundle of 100 votes.
yep , on the same vote count last nite till now ie 72665:
ylast nite LCP 2PP was 34951 now 34769 (-189)
however the error is worse -last nite uncounted absentees were 1235 now 2496
-last night uncounted prepolls were 789 now 1106
Someone stuffed up big time in Swan counting
If counting per 2PP % voting types continues as is: Labor loses by 142
but one can hope
Can someone explain to me why Country Liberal Party member Senator Scullion meets with the National Party, and not the Liberal Party?
Did Dave Tollner – C.L.P. member in the House of Reps meet with the Liberal or Nationals?
Have the Country Liberal Party always been in alliance with the Nationals rather than the Liberals?
-182
You people are not true labor. A RAT IS A RAT ! Cassidy is a rat, as most jilted lovers are.
#
498
K Jin Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 8:01 pm
You people are not true labor. A RAT IS A RAT ! Cassidy is a rat, as most jilted lovers are.
I am sure you regret your reference to Matt Price ???
The only reference I made to Matt Price (RIP) was in context of people using him. Surely no one could disagree that nearly everyone in the media has been using his lamented passing.
YOU PAY YOUR RESPECTS. YOU DO NOT SHOUT OUT, EVERYONE LOOK AT ME
Whilst i sympathise for his family and friends over his death, however why so much carry on about his death. The media jump on the bandwagon and carry on, now what did Matt do again, did he discover Pencillon or a wonder drug or help provide better sanitation in the third world..
Marky marky (485),
The government does not determine the definition of unemployment. The ABS does, in accordacne with internationally agreed principles. Contray to the oft-repeated myth, John Howard never changed the definition and , contrary to the other side’s oft-repeated myth neither Bob Hawke nor Paul Keating changed it either. in fact, the definition of unemployment as being less than one hour’s work a week has not changed since 1960. Here is the ABS account of unemployment measures: http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/RN/2006-07/07rn18.pdf
In 2 years time my point of view about the vultures in the media will be the excepted wisdom and many hear can use this point of view as a punchline.
Okay, no more from or about K Jin.
Did Swan actually say anything on the 7:30 report on what he would do to stop a recession without constantly resorting to slogans ‘downward pressure’ ect???
I’m intrigued to hear from Glen and aother supporters of the free market economy about how the Treasurer is supposed “stop a recession.” Fixed prices? Import controls? A wage freeze? (No, tried that under Fraser.) Free market economies are supposed to run themselves, and recessions happen when they happen. Capitalism is a cyclical system, and recessions actually serve a useful purpose in a capitalist economy. They weed out weak and inefficient companies and free up capital and labour for the strong and efficient. Read your Milton Friedman, Glen.
There has been much discussion today on this blog about the Howard Government’s economic legacy, and whether it was good, or a litany of waster opportunities.
But where I think there’s quite an indictment of the Howard government is: Why did it totally fail to PREDICT the mining boom? And is Treasury and the rest of the bureaucracy equally at fault for this?
It seems to me that the mining boom came upon us suddenly, providing us with lots of revenue. But where were the skilled workers for the boom? Where was the housing and essential services in the mining towns?
We could have done much better out of the mining boom if we had been prepared, and the Coalition just missed this completely. By the time we catch up with the necessary labour force and infrastructure, other countries will be undercutting us for price on coal, iron ore, uranium, copper etc.
This whole issue intrigues me,as I was brought up in Wollongong, and saw, in the 1970s, the Fraser Government let coal mines shut down, the Newcastle Steelworks close, and thousands of skilled metallurgists, engineers, geologists, mine electricians etc take redundancy packages. Quite a few of these were people I went to school with. Those who managed to keep their jobs are now earning absolute fortunes.
The predictions now are that the next boom will be agriculture, as China, India and others require more meat, dairy and grain products as their affluence increases and they move from agricultural to industrial economies.
Is Labor planning for this? Are they aware it might happen? What is our plan once Labor ends the drought??!!
Ireland became a wealthy country in a very short space of time because it predicted the IT boom. Australia needs to be ahead of the pack for the next boom. My gut feeling is that it WILL be agriculture. We need to be sorting out water use, working out what overseas markets will require in five years, developing northern Australia, and assisting our food processing industries NOW.
505 Glen – you obviously have the answer to stopping a recession. Go on share it with us.
I’m not convinced that in the event of a recession Labor would pay for it electorally at the next election. People have seen this coming through the last year of the Howard government. Also it would be very easy to argue in an election campaign that a coalition government would revert back to Workchoices thus making job security and working conditions tenuous to say the least in poorer economic times.
So Marky stop drooling over the prospect and hope to hell for everyone’s sake a recession is a avoided.
So what does everyone think about the latest counting in doubtful seats?
My prediction is Labor will probably gain Flynn, Robertson, Solomon AND Bowman(Jason Young’s lead keeps slowly growing, a rare win for Labor on postals so far).
Herbert looks gone – Lindsay will keep it, but will the residents of Townsville still get their V8 car race?
Do you want him to say he will use force to take over the means of production?
+
Enjaybee (494): Mark Butler, the member for Port Adelaide, is a former left-wing union boss and honours law graduate – and the great great grandson and great grandson of Sir Richard Butler (1) and Sir Richard Butler (2), Liberal premiers of South Australia.
Progressive,
I think you are pretty much on the money for Flynn and Bowman, but I would still have doubt over McEwen, Robertson and Solomon.
Also, today’s Swan adjustment must put had the libs bowels shaking
To my mind, its the picture of the 2PP catch up in NON-close seats that is interseting.
AEC is currently saying there are 10 seats where ALP is in front by less than 2.0%.
That’s going to be a very narrow margin to defend at the next election
Gary Bruce (509) I think it is important that an uncommitted voter like yourself keeps an open mind for the time being on who should win the next election. Closer to polling day you can make an objective assessment on which side of politics is best able to take the reins of goverment after 2010 or whenever the next election is called.
There is no way Gary is uncommitted
I only just caught up with Swan: Kim Wilkie isn’t quite so dead after all, only 34 votes behind.
There is no way 10pse is uncommitted either but whether I’m a committed voter or not is irrelevant to the points I was making.
i have never said i am
Gary i never said that Labor would be ousted from office.
But a recession come depression would make it tough, and to suggest that Labor should revert back to harping on about Workchoices would be silly, better to positive instead.
Anyhow many people working casually will be out of work and they will not care to much about workchoices.
Casual work needs to reduced it is serious problem.
As i said the other day If Turnbull is leader which i think he will be Labor should wedge him in by bringing back the Republic debate, people in the Nationals will be up in arms and those loony right wing ideologues like Flint and Pell will be going berserk.
Hmm, Wilkie’s definitely not out of the running in Swan.
Could still be my pick of 85
Cardinal Pell is not a “loony right-wing ideologue.” He supported the republic, he opposed Work Choices and I’d be fairly certain he votes Labor. He’s only conservative on Catholic morality issues like abortion.
Mr Squiggle, history shows you usually need to add 1.5% to the swing needed for first defence seats (Mackerras sophomore effect). Add to this the consistent habit of Australians re-electing a govt first time round. Many Coalition seats will be low hanging as well, so not all good news for LNP. In fact if things don’t shape up well for them they might be chasing 20+ seats in 2013.
Thanks Phil at 512. I was attempting to draw this to Adam’s attention but I am sure that he already knew this anyway. If he didn’t glad to be of assistance to help him with his psephological records (with your help).
Correct Pell did support the republic but thinking he is a Labor voter may be missplaced, seemingly he is an conservative for change http://www.republic.org.au/arm-2001/cahs/friends.html
No Labor federal government has ever increased its majority when seeking a second term: Fisher was defeated in 1913, Scullin was defeated in 1931, Chifley lost seats in 1946, Whitlam lost seats in 1974, Hawke lost seats in 1984. So history will be against Rudd increasing his majority in 2010. But the tendency in recent state elections has been for the Libs to collapse when they lose office, allowing Labor governments to have big second-term wins: Carr in 1998, Beattie in 2001, Bracks in 2002, Rann in 2005. You would have to think there is a high possibility the federal Libs will go the same way this time. But no-one can predict what will happen over the next three years.
Showson – the CLP sit with the Libs in the HoR and with the Nats in the Senate. They are a separate organisation to both so it is indicative of the Nats lack of depth that they have chosen someone from outside their own party to be their deputy leader (and leader in the Senate) under Truss.
I’d be very surprised if Pell agreed to have his name put on that list.
Although Snedden wasn’t a great leader, the libs federally generally have in all those elections had fairly competent leaders. On the other hand the State Governments have had a bunch of boring dills and have suffered from in fighting. This scenario i doubt will happen with the federal libs.
Labor at a state level certainly has a good track record when it comes to the second election after seizing power so I think Bryce @522 may well be right.
With almost universal predictions of leadership instability and self immolation, Labor could well pick up a swag of seats in 2010/11.
ABC election site is predicting 85 seats for Labor, so they think Kim Wilkie will hold Swan?
I asked this before but it might get more attention now that comments have slowed down. Can we try to build a list of Liberal MPs who were considered to be supporters of Peter Costello (or, at least, would have voted for him in a leadership ballot against Howard)? I’m aware of the following:
Victoria: Costello, Georgiou, Smith, Pearce, Hunt, Billson, Broadbent, Ronaldson, Fifield, Troeth, Kemp.
NSW: Payne.
Qld: Mason, Brandis, Slipper, Trood.
SA: Pyne.
I know that this list can’t be close to complete, because he was always said to have 25-30 solid votes in the party room.
I forgot to add Moyland and Washer from WA too.
Does anyone have a sense of whether this small change in margin during the counting of postals, absents etc is a uniform thing??
or is it happening in one or two states only?
I’ve been looking at the numbers and can’t form a view one way or the other
Surely, though, the dynamics of voting must be a bit more complex than just lists of names — so if Joe Blow knows which way Nelly Bly is voting he might be influenced by her decision or want to be on the winning team or whatever. That’s why I don’t accept the argument that Costello didn’t challenge Rodent because he knew he didn’t have the numbers — I reckon the act of challenging might shake some doubter from the tree.
Adam nice cover up for Swan not announcing one economic initiative one economic policy to reduce inflation, the elephant in the room was Labor’s IR policy which has been shown to be inflationary. Doesn’t it worry you that we have a Treasurer with no economic policy bar ’slogans’?? At least Cossie had some policies Swan is full of hot air.
God help us if there is a recession because the green ALP Minister won’t have a clue how to manage it.
The postals and pre-poll votes are strong for Irons, these votes as William said were misplaced and have been added to the totals there has been no turn around for Wilkie in these votes and unless there is he’ll lose.
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markmywords – Labor’s vote can’t get much higher than this and you’re assuming that all those in the Liberal marginals who voted Labor to get rid of Howie will not change their votes after 3 years, wishful thinking IMHO. These Liberal marginals will swing back to us in 2010. And Rudd could be a one termer if we have a recession, making Nelson Prime Minister.
521
Adam, I’m pretty sure the Cardinal votes Abbott.
Glen, you didn’t answer my question. How in a deregulated free market economy, and a fairly small economy exposed to the global economy, is a Treasurer supposed to “stop a recession”? Howard couldn’t stop the 1982 recession, and he had more levers of economic management at his disposal than any Treasurer has now. I await your answer.
Glen if Nelson is leader the Liberals will not win the next election. Just looking at him on television gives you the impression the guy is shifty and unreliable, he is an asset for Labor.
The Cardinal certainly votes anti-gay…
Glen what policies did Costello have again?
Well once it’s happened its very hard to stop a recession of course Adam but with an experienced Treasurer the effects could be managed, though i can’t see Swan making the situation any better when it happens. Even if you had a big economy you couldn’t stop a recession anyway.
Marky, if Rudd can make a dozen gaffes and blunders in his first year as Opposition Leader and you and the left not make a peep out of it i hardly think you can credibly attack Brendan, he deserves a fair go.
Apres wouldn’t he vote DLP?
tax reform
superannuation reform
GST
workchoices (reduce inflation)
future fund
higher education endowment fund
health fund
ect ect.
You’ve got to love Howard’s religious nutters. One of them, Pastor Danny Nalliah (with whom Howard & Costello both held private meetings) had given a prophecy prior to the election stating that God had told him Howard would win. It’s a bit humiliating when a self proclaimed prophet gets it so wrong. In a message to his flock he writes:
“On Saturday 24th November, as I was just about to minister at a combined churches service in Albany, Western Australia, I received the shocking news from my wife that John Howard had lost the election…After ministering to the people of God on Saturday night, I struggled to fall asleep in my motel room in Albany, Western Australia, as I was all alone, in tears and feeling very sad for most of the night. I kept asking the Lord, “DID I GET IT WRONG???”…As I begin reading the prophetic word from the Lord, I was greatly stirred in my spirit to read the following words that I had stated, “I will boldly declare that PM John Howard will be re-elected in the Nov election – ‘IF THE BODY OF CHRIST UNITES IN PRAYER AND ACTION.’…
Again I heard the voice of the Lord, “For My people were not united in prayer and action for this election. If they were, they would have experienced spiritual revival under My freedom reigning in this nation, but now My people have chosen another way. They have not voted for My will, but for self gain and personal change.”
So foks, apparently Australia has not voted according to God’s will. Danny didn’t get it wrong – Australia did! Now we all know that God is a Torie.
Adam,
It depends on the global recession, give some details and we can discuss scenarios, otherwise, the topic is a bit up in the air really. for example, what constitutes “global” these days?
I was just reading some JB Were economic research today, they put the chance of a recession in the US at only 40-45% provided the Fed cuts rates at their next meeting!!
In other words, if the Fed doesn’t cut rates, the chance of a recession gets close to 70-75%
A US recession is a real possibility at the moment..
Workchoices did a good job at reducing inflation,
funds and more funds,
perhaps only the GST was a Costello reform if you want to call it reform i’d rather call it a stuff up, and tax reform must be amalagated with this.
Glen says: “Well once it’s happened its very hard to stop a recession of course Adam but with an experienced Treasurer the effects could be managed, though i can’t see Swan making the situation any better when it happens. Even if you had a big economy you couldn’t stop a recession anyway.”
I didn’t ask how you “stop a recession” once it’s happened, a nonsensical proposition. I asked how an Australian Treasurer is supposed to PREVENT a recession, which is what Glen accused Swan (on his first day in office) of failing to do. Again I point out that Treasurer Howard failed to prevent the 1982 recession, in a much more managed economy than we have now. Does Glen actually know the first thing about economics, or is he talking out of his cloaca as usual?
McEwen updated at 9:50 Eastern,
No change
I never said Swan didn’t know how to stop a recession once its happened i was referring to managing a recession, stopping one is immaterial and probably impossible IMHO.
Adam your defence of Rooster Swan is laughable this bloke had not one economic policy to present or suggest Labor would implement not one, zero, zip. Not only that he had no idea how to plan for a recession how he would manage a recession or what policies he could have in place to reduce its effects.
Glen, Pell is a politician. Who knows what way he votes, but imo he doesn’t cling to those ancient DLP loyalties. All he cares about is pleasing the Vatican.
Ferny Grover @ 543,
Reminds me of a Ruprt Murdoch story of when he sacked the resident astrologist in one of his newpapers.
The letter started, “As you will already know,…….”
543
Thank you for that great get FG. There are so many people, so many stories to spin, so many people who listen.
Costello was no reformer, and regarding Swan you are right yet i have heard very little regarding what he aims to do, mind you he did make Costello bring forth tax cuts which were centred more towards the middle and lower classes in the campaign.
And Swan has written a book, Costello will let Howard write it for him.
Growler….I should write a similar missive to Pastor Dan. What’s tragic is these frauds have thousands of followers in Australia (who dig deep to financially support the nonsense they’re fed)…and Howard was giving them succour. Thank God the good Lord decided to wear a Kevin07 teeshirt on 24 Nov.
The arch neocon cheerleader Mark Steyn has a piece in the GG today, that laments Howard’s end.
Titled “A loss for Civilisation”, it makes Albrechtsen et al look like undergraduates from some third rate uni, and is nothing if not audaciously pompous in its miscomprehensions and ignorance of Australian politics and history.
Worth the read, and it deserves a good slap down:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22857673-5013480,00.html
Get over it Glen. He’s the Treasurer with as much experience as your man Costello had in 1996. You seem to have an obsession with experience and a hatred of Swan matched only by your infatuation with Julie Bishop. Swan will do exactly what your hero Costello did and accept the advice of the Treasury Dept.
OK, so Glen has conceded (I think) that recessions can’t be prevented. So his criticism of Swan for not having a policy to prevent a recession is just bluster, as I thought.
As for Swan having no policies, read and learn:
http://www.alp.org.au/media/0407/spetre030.php
http://www.alp.org.au/media/0407/spetre270.php
FG @ 553,
I agree with your first comment. However, I am sure that God is not partisan.
Yeah but at least Costello had some talent, Swan has never been talented, he’ll probably last a couple of years in he job.
Enjaybee even Julie Bishop has talent and not only that ministerial experience to boot something Rooster could only dream of.
Pity Tanner will give him to boot.
Yes Adam lets not forget that Wayne can also give us tips on how to save money with groceries. What a noob!
Glen your ravings knows no bounds.
Glen,
No one in Parliament today has as much experience being Prime Minister as Kevin Rudd.
I think you will also find that Swan has a Phd in Economics.
I can tell you that policy went down very well in the suburbs where I was campaigning, Glen.
I heard Mark Steyn speak when he was here last year and I usually enjoy reading his stuff. He sticks it to the jihadis and the Pilger-Fisk-Chomsky school of appeasement very effectively. That piece is way below his usual standard. Obviously he knows nothing much about Australian politics, and when you write without proper research that’s the sort of tripe you write. Good enough for a crap provincial imitation-Times like The Australian, he probably thought. And it probably was good enough for Chris Mitchell, who can’t tell good writing from garbage anymore.
Hey Glen, do you have a picture of Julie Bishop in your bedroom that you w..k to every night, and does she call you a naughty boy too?
Enjaybee you should see when i rant in German, that is about the limit to my rants lol
Of course not he’s been PM for 1 day but does he have as much leadership experience? No as Costello and Mark Vaile both had leadership positions in Parliament Deputy Liberal Leader 13 years and Mark Vaile Deputy PM they have far more experience than KR who’s been a leader for what a little over 1 year lol give me a break.
Sorry, GG, Swan only has a BA.
Adam @ 565,
Thank goodness for that, there is still hope for me!
Glen, “experience” is not much use when you’re as dumb as Mark Vaile, or as shifty and gutless as Costello. The Australian people gave their verdict on the “experienced” Howard regime on 24/11. Get used to it.
No but somewhere in my QT tapes i think ive got when she said that and no i do not do that to her saying that. But if i did it wouldn’t be as bad as if you were do to the same thing with a picture of Julia Gillard BF.
562
Adam – ah but you see that’s the thing, Labor had ’slogans’ just things that sounded good but nothing concrete, nothing with any substance and BTW you didn’t win because of your policies IMHO. Adam even you should know that more often than not Governments lose elections, Oppositions don’t win them.
So Glen, you admit that you do have that on tape, interesting!
Well i taped question time this year when i could. I made sure i had something of the good ol years to watch when i get sick of Rudd answering his own questions. Well i think i have it i dunno i haven’t gone through them all recently.
Ms Bishop, an immaculately presented blonde, taunted Mr Rudd for “stealing” his Education Revolution policy in a scene reminiscent of Marilyn Monroe singing Happy Birthday Mr President to John F. Kennedy.
“Naughty boy,” Ms Bishop taunted across the dispatch box in a sulky, hip swinging, head tossing rebuke which all but suggested the Opposition Leader was in for a damned good spanking. “You stole that idea, didn’t you?”
Neural alarm registered on Mr Rudd’s face as he struggled to counter perhaps the only avenue of Government attack he hadn’t prepared a contingency plan for.
“You’ll have to go to the naughty corner, won’t you?” continued Parliament’s own version of Lauren Bacall, shooting Rudd another sultry stare as he looked desperately back at Opposition benches for assistance.
Bishop, clearly enjoying her role as disciplinarian, opened a booklet and began reading the history of Labor’s Education Revolution.
It was, she informed the House, first mooted by discredited former Labor leader Mark Latham several years ago.
“So the new policy adviser on education is Mark Latham?” she asked with an eyebrow arch, before gliding back to her seat followed by the glassy eyes of most of the men on the Opposition benches.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,21305523-953,00.html
For your enjoyment Basil.
Labor won this election – make no mistake about it. Rudd was on the receiving end of a nasty series of lies and slurs and he stood tall, maintained his dignity and beat the bastards. He is already a Labor hero in my book. Your comments this evening Glen make me think you’ve finally decided to drown your sorrows – you’d be too young to drink though wouldn’t you? I hope your mummy doesn’t notice the sherry decanter missing.
Progressive @ 530
The ABC doesn’t “think” anything about Swan. The prediction is an automatic formula that has been running since the Sunday after polling day. It is a probability based formula that gets rounded to a whole number of seats. As results in each seat have bobbed between 49.8 and 50.2, the rounding results in the prediction varying between 84 and 85. The process is running entirely on autopilot, though I have tightened the variance parameters today.
Glen,
What a life you lead!
I can see it now, you and the grand kids around the old wireless talking about how the Liberals were the dominant party in Australian politics 50 years ago.
Unfortunately, they will have no idea what a Liberal is and will become most uncomfortable when you offer them boiled lollies.
For all the talk by howard apologists regarding economic management, it is well known that Treasury and Costello were opposed to the pork-barrelling that howard indulged in to get re-elected. He was totally poll driven, to the detriment of good economic management. What I sense from the statements to date by Rudd and Swan is a determination to return to prudence and planning. As has been pointed out elsewhere, in the current globalised economy national governments are largely powerless to control international events, such as the US sub-prime crisis.
Anthony, congratulations on a job well done on election night under very trying conditions in the tally room.
#
570
Glen Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 11:02 pm
Well i taped question time this year when i could. I made sure i had something of the good ol years to watch when i get sick of Rudd answering his own questions. Well i think i have it i dunno i haven’t gone through them all recently.
Glen : you are using ” Howard – speak “
574
Greeensborough Growler – Id think by the time i had grandkids we’d have better technologies than a wireless. Oh and they’ll all be tory voters mark my words about that GG, unless they want to be a beatnik. Im sure ill have better things than boiled lollies to give them aswell.
Adam, must you persist with calling Costello yellow, how is it yellow not to challenge when you dont have the numbers?
572
Steve K – i don’t care for sherry.
Ron, Glen likes living in the past, just like his hero.
#
573
Antony Green Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 11:06 pm
Progressive @ 530
The ABC doesn’t “think” anything about Swan. The prediction is an automatic formula that has been running since the Sunday after polling day. It is a probability based formula that gets rounded to a whole number of seats. As results in each seat have bobbed between 49.8 and 50.2, the rounding results in the prediction varying between 84 and 85. The process is running entirely on autopilot, though I have tightened the variance parameters today.
Anthony , does the program use the todate 2PP % per voter type as a calulation on the respective UNCOUNTED votes per voter type net of informals per voter
type ??
Glen, from my pre-election commentary:
Costello has no-one to blame for this gloomy scenario but himself. As Deputy Liberal Party leader and heir apparent, it was incumbent on him to tell Howard last year that it was now in the interests of the Liberal Party that he, Howard, retire. He failed to do so, leaving the task to lesser lights, who didn’t have the clout to get Howard to go gracefully. Next, when it became apparent that Howard would not budge, Costello did not have the nerve to challenge him in the party room, or to resign, or indeed do anything except continue to project his image of smug self- satisfaction to an increasingly unimpressed electorate. This was not just a failure of nerve, it was a failure of leadership.
It’s true that Costello did not have the numbers to roll Howard. But leadership is not about accepting the short-sighted inertia of the potplants of the party room. It’s about being willing to lead, and to run some risks in doing so. Paul Keating didn’t have the numbers to roll Bob Hawke, either. He created the numbers by resigning and threatening to destabilise the government until the Caucus accepted the necessity for a leadership transition from a leader who was probably going to lose the 1993 election to a leader who, as it turned out, knew how to win. That was the standard of leadership set for Costello, and it was a standard he failed to meet.
Actually Adam, he did but Howard didn’t want to go.
What good would a challenge have done, pushed us further behind in the polls and not done anything for Costello’s numbers.
How does not having the numbers, mean someone has no nerve and a failure of leadership?
Well didn’t Keatings spat help to almost cost the ALP the 1993 election?
Read what I wrote, dummy. Keating didn’t have the numbers, but he CREATED the numbers by resigning and forcing Caucus to act. Keating saved the 1993 election for Labor by rolling Hawke.
Yeah but read what i wrote, Keating’s spat with Hawke allowed Hewson to become an appealing alternative and had it not been for that interview Keating wouldn’t have won anyway. Hewson was our Rudd only he didn’t win.
Adam, i think its safe to say Keating had more numbers than Deputy Dawg when they wanted the Leadership.
Adam the fact is history WILL record Costello desired to be PM but did not have the ticker to challenge.
Worse still , when the Liberal Party leadership was offered on a plate , he did a
‘dummy spit’
Cotello himself destroyed his own reputation (Keating did forcast Costello’s ticker)
Glen,
In Australian politics, nothing comes easy. If you think now is the time to change, as Costello allegedly believed last year, then go for it. As a nation, we are very unsentimental about political figures that are perceived to have passed their use by date.
Costello’s prevarication, lack of fortitude and insistence that the leadership be presented to him on a plate shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the real political culture of Australia. Ultimately it is what did him, Howard and the Liberal Party in.
Suffer in your jocks.
Glen: ‘Hewson was our Rudd only he didn’t win.’
Hewson is to Rudd as fish is to bicycle.
586
Greeensborough Growler Says:
agree with you re Costello
Keating said 10 years ago : Costello was like the school bully..all puff & no ticker
No, Hewson was your Latham. Better educated, I agree, and probably not as nasty on a personal level, but just as scary to the voters.
Adam,
What makes you think Costello could have created the numbers the way Keating did?
Keating started from a base of 40% of Caucus (44 out of 110) and Hawke was unable to choose a credible-looking replacement Treasurer. Costello would have had 25% of the Party and, if he’d done a Keating, Howard would probably have put in Turnbull as Treasurer, who would have looked the part a lot more than John Kerin did.
Costello made the right call not to challenge in my view.
Can a Country Liberal Party Senator CHOOSE to attend Liberal Party room meetings? Or do they have some sort of a coalition agreement to meet with the National Party?
Keating went down fighting for a cause
Howard went down selfishly fighting for himself
Costello would not even enter the ring to fight for himself
History will therefore be kinder to Keating than the other 2
What cause, Ron?
GG – You’re dreaming mate, it came easy for Rudd didn’t it???
Your logic in attacking Costello over not challenging and not standing as Opposition Leader is weak.
First, by saying he should of destabilised the party and gone to the backbench is like cutting off the nose to spite the face, its lose lose, Costello would of lost numbers and firmed the numbers supporting Howard because Cossie would of damaged the party’s standing.
Second why on earth would you want to be in Opposition after being 13 years as deputy leader and 11 years as Treasurer, he’s already been in Opposition before why not let the next generation have a go.
The idea that Costello should have stayed on as Opposition Leader doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.
Firstly, he wouldn’t be electable as PM.
Secondly, his presence would ensure the internal Liberal politics continued to be defined by pro vs anti Howard, just as it has been since Fraser’s tears dried on 5 March 1983. This is something the Libs definitely need to move on from, Costello being there would have made it much harder.
look at facts
McMahon , Whitlam , Snedden , Fraser , Hawke & Keating rolled their Leader
yet started with a minority of votes
Costello has already been labelled by the media as lacking ticker to challenge
You may blog to your hearts content but Costello’s legacy is he had no ticker
and history will record this fact
Ron Brown, Gorton never was rolled by McMahon, remember he lost the ballot with his own vote, he could of stayed on if he wanted to. Holt never rolled his leader BTW.
Glen,
1, Rudd elbowed his way to the top of the ALP pile and “snatched” it! Pure and simple.
2. Lose/Lose. Opposed to the glorious victory of 24/11 and the 1000 year Liberal Reich. You are smoking and inhaling if you think things have bottomed for the Libs yet.
3. I don’t think Costello planned on being Opposition Leader. He wanted to be PM. His love of the next generation of Liberal Leaders is legendary. It is the only thing people ever say about Costello.
Ron,
I suspect Costello’s main legacy (rightly or wrongly) will be that he was Treasurer for 11+ years during Australia’s longest-ever unbroken economic boom.
That’s fact, and that’s one reason why his decision not to contest the leadership will probably be treated ok by history.
Costello in 2006 had a Liberal defence minister as a witness to Howard making a ‘Kirribilli’ deal who then showed the written evidence !
The door was opened by McLachlan for Costello to challenge Howard
Costello destroyed his reputation by letting Howard intimidate him
Fraser , McMahon , Hawke & Keating never would have backed down
which is why ALL 4 WERE PM’s
GG @ 598,
Sure, opinion polls are likely to get much worse for the Libs over the next 6-12 months.
Whether things have “bottomed” in terms of real election results, though, it’s way too early to tell. As Adam and others have pointed out, there are historical indicators both ways.
Ron compare the state of the economy Keating left Australia and what Costello left Australia, history will show PJK as a crude arrogant man who ran Australia into the ground, while Costello whilst never PM will have more respect from later generations because of the way he grew and maintained Australia’s economy.
Dyno, no one will break his record as longest serving Treasurer IMHO.
Adam, re Steyn:
I agree it’s pretty turgid tosh in the GG today, and yes, as the teacher says, he can do better. But unlike Hitchens he’s no genius with words, and this lurch into neocon fantasy land with the ‘war of civilisations’ stuff just does not stack up to scrutiny.
I’m as peturbed by religious zealots as the next guy, and it’s got many truly ugly manifestaions in Islam, but it’s by no means unique in that. The handful of nutters that ‘go the jihad ‘ in the West are not the products of socio-economic exlusion but rather tend to be middle class cross-cultural misfits (just look at Ossama’s family background for example), like the recent self-immolating UK doctors.
Steyn’s dichotomy, Western Judeo-Christian good, Islam bad is a symptom not a diagnosis.
Treasurer’s rarely get remembered except
Howard : 11% inflation , 22% interest rates , 11% unemployment
Keating : brought Australia out of the Howard recession ,
deregulated the WHOLE Aussie economy & his recession comment
Costello: GST introduced ,was treasurer during the Mining boom (he did not create)
desired to be PM but lacked ticker to challenge
I expect the above will be all that History writes
602
Glen Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 11:52 pm
Ron compare the state of the economy Keating left Australia and what Costello left Australia,
Ron says
Howard as treasurer in 1982 left Labor with the following PER THE ABS:
: 11% inflation , 22% interest rates , 11% unemployment
This is what WILL NEVER BE FORGOTTEN
604
Ron Brown – yeah and Keating got us into a new recession HA!
ShowsOn @ #591 says
It is my understanding that each CLP MHR and Senator can choose which Party they join in Canberra.
In the 1970s, MHR Sam Calder sat with the NCP while Senator Bernie Kilgariff sat with the Libs.
When Grant Tambling was a MHR (1980-3), he also sat with the NCP.
In 1987, Tambling was elected as a Senator and Paul Everingham was elected as a MHR. Everingham chose to sit with the Libs and Tambling sat with the Nats in the Senate. Since then they have followed this arrangement.
I suspect that Scullion was elected deputy leader of the Nats, to discourage him from changing to the Libs.
Dyno,
Opinion Polls are the least of your worries!
You have Costello on the back bench, who if he stays the distance will likely harbour leadership ambitions.
You have Abbott and Downer traipsing their coats to remind people they are still around.
You have Turnbull, openly ambitious and already providing his Leader character advice.
You have Julie Bishop deputy leader because she is a women and can raise money in WA where all the seats for the Libs to retain Govrnment are.?
You have the leader who barely won the vote and seems to have the impact of a marshmellow.
The Libs have a split between their conservatives and progressives. Howard kept it all together because of patronage and the fact he was a winner.
If you think the Libs are going to be doing anything but looking internally over the next few years as they descend to a real life sh*t fight for the soul and character of the Liberal Party, then it you who is deluded.
606
Glen Says:
December 4th, 2007 at 12:01 am
Ron says: Glen you are scared to talk of Howard’s treasurer record ???
History may remember Peter Costello, probably in terms of some of the disparaging, and amazingly prescient, epithets bestowed on him by Paul Keating. More respect from later generations? Glen, sometimes you do spout the most terrible bilge. Old boy.
Costello has left Australia with a trade deficit debt of $543 Billion !!!!
(despite receiving the proceeds of the Mining Boom)
It was $181 Billion in 1996
The debt is over 6% of GDP…..5th worst in the world
Costello economic record therefore is a disgrace
Good morning y’all
Speaking of Keating, can’t he shut up and enjoy life?
I can’t beleive he said a week ago that we made a mistake voting him out.
GG @ 608,
I’m not saying you’re wrong about the Libs’ future – time will tell, after all.
But I am saying that all this stuff is just your theories – after all, not too many people thought the Hawke Govt would go backwards at the 1984 election (and that was hardly a united Opposition, either).
I don’t know how you can say I am “deluded” when all I’m saying is that the future is unpredictable.
Interesting to see how othes see us. This is the reporting of Rudd’s decision to sign Kyoto by Agence France Presse:
“The move means Rudd is likely to receive a hero’s reception when he undertakes his first foreign visit as prime minister to attend high level talks at a United Nations conference on climate change in Bali.”
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gf1WW8EqThgo2iMaJZT-oUla9KmQ
612
John of Melbourne Says:
December 4th, 2007 at 12:09 am
Good morning y’all
Speaking of Keating, can’t he shut up and enjoy life?
RON SAYS
Keating IS enjoying life now that both Howard (lost his seat)
and Costello (did ‘dummy spit’) have had their reputations trashed last week !!!!
#612 Well, Glen was right about the arrogant thing.
Keating is a fool.
Fancy boasting about the “recession we had to have”.
He’s been the Liberals’ best asset for the last decade.
Now Howard AND Costello’s soiled reputations are Labor’s best assets
Ron Brown I wish I could believe you but I think that Keatings calander stopped in 1996, lol.
I don’t think it is a big deal that Howard lost his seat as he lost Government and was going to go regardless.
I’m suffering from opinion poll withdrawal.
Forced to go cold turkey 10 days ago.
Those in Government write the history
IF you think Howard’s and Costello’s soiled reputations are bad now ,
wait till Rudd & Co. have had three years to bury the little of what’s left !!!!
#612 A few things I forgot to mention. Former Labor leaders, having claimed hero status, are allowed to crap on, talk themselves up and berate current Labor leaders for their lack of *insert noun of choice*.
Former Liberal leaders are allowed to go swimming on deserted beaches, become faux former Labor leaders or crawl off into the nearest cave and never be heard from again.
well Keating was on radio today and was asked what will they say about Costello in 20 years
Keating replied: Costello’s name will appear followed SOLELY BY an exclamation mark
Quiz question: four members of the current ministry have an Order of Australia. Who can name them? (No looking it up.)
guess the oldest…Defus ??
Peter Garrett, John Faulkner, Tanya Plibersek and Penny Wong. 0/4?
my mum too by the way. Not sure if she made the ministry though.
Two off the top of my head are Mike Kelly & Peter Garratt.
What about Greg Combet and Bill Shorten ?
#
619
John of Melbourne Says:
December 4th, 2007 at 12:15 am
Ron Brown I wish I could believe you but I think that Keatings calander stopped in 1996, lol.
I don’t think it is a big deal that Howard lost his seat as he lost Government and was going to go regardless.
Ron says: I can assure you Howard unlike you thinks its a big deal to lose his own seat because HE KNOWS this is what he will b remembered for as with Stanley Bruce
Garrett, Kelly, Combet, yes. Shorten, no.
mum?
Adam , the other army guy ?
3 out of 4 – not bad
Frank you deserve first prize
Adam what does Frank get
Gotta be Maxine for casting Howard into history ??
Gary Gray is #4
First prize is a copy of John Howard’s memoirs, “How Peter Costello Lost Us the 2007 Election.”
Boll, who is yr mum? Dame Elisabeth Murdoch? Margaret Whitlam?
I thought Howard’s memoirs were called:
“How I managed to be PM for 11 years and never told the truth”
Trivia,
Peter Garrett is the second rock nroll type person wgho has become a LAbor Minister, Paul Keating prior to entering parliament was manager of a group called The Ramrods, which had 3 flop singles on EMI – those tracks and others were rer-eleased on a Compilation LP during the 80’s by Glenn A Baker’s Raven Label.
#636 ah Rosemary Bollen, Adam. News travels pretty slowly to Tokyo these days, I thought she may have made a late-life entry into politics.
Frank, Swannie’s daughter (Erin ?) fronts a band. Close but no cigar, Wayne …
Rosemary Bollen, for services to children’s welfare, 1996. Very commendable.
Gough Whitlam was for many years drummer for Guns ‘n’ Roses, but under another name of course.
Thanks mate. Just tried to find that on google – no luck. Got a link?
If the Gay farmer Big Brother Enterant had stood for the Nats, then we would’ve had the first reality TV contestant in the Parliament (though if Pauline H had won her senate seat…)
http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cache:b8l8An_zrw8J:www.acwa.asn.au/Downloads/ACWA%2520News/1996/ACWANewsJul1996.pdf+%22Rosemary+Bollen%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=5&gl=au
Boll, if you’re after Swans daughters band, it’s called Nina May:
http://www.myspace.com/ninamaymusic
Better source for Honours is http://www.itsanhonour.gov.au
Brendan Nelson is Mr 14%! Even 28% of Liberal voters think Rudd will be a better P.M.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22864863-2,00.html
Rudd’s preferred P.M. rating is now 61%
On the front page of The Oz at the moment, they’ve got a story headlined “APOLOGY TO GEORGE NEWHOUSE”.
But the link is dead.
Anyone know what that’s about?
Hi guys. Just popped by. See what’s doin.
Having a bit of fun, watching Kenny. To relieve the ennui. Just watched the racing car scene, maybe the V*8 things, Adam, ah, the noise, the fever, the excitement, the adrenalin, anxiety and alcohol fuelled brawling, the language, the madness, the absurdity, the winner takes all headlong pitch, the ups of a great move, the downs of a spin out, the exhilaration, the depression, the absurd and crazy setting with crowds burning portable dunnies to round it off!
Put me so in mind of the high old days of the worst of the most fevered of the blogs, everyone throwing everything for all it was worth. spinning out on polls, slumped in corners, them were the days!
Apology to George Newhouse.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22865525-5013948,00.html
It’s now been fixed – quote:
“ON Saturday morning, November 24, 2007, Caroline Overington had an encounter with the Labor candidate for Wentworth, Mr George Newhouse, in circumstances that she sincerely regrets. She hopes that she and Mr Newhouse can put this incident behind them and she wishes him all the best.
The Australian regrets any embarrassment Mr Newhouse has endured and also wishes him well.”
The Australian might regret any embarrassment Mr Newhouse endured, but I bet it’s not a shade on the regret over the embarrassment The Oz endured.
Thanks all. Not sure about the Newhouse story, but over at the SMH…
New leader asks Ruddock and Robb to “overhaul the party{s rules and structures”. Oh sweet Jesus.
Lest we forget. Intertubes, Possum.
Caroline Overington denies slapping George Newhouse
By staff writers and wires
November 24, 2007 06:29pm
Article from: NEWS.com.aul
ONE of Australia’s most prominent newspaper reporters has denied slapping a Labor candidate at a polling station in eastern Sydney today.
Caroline Overington from The Australian newspaper has admitted to being involved in a physical confrontation with George Newhouse outside of a polling station in Sydney’s east.
She has said that rather than slap him she “pushed” him with an “open hand”.
Polling booth attendants and voters said Ms Overington walked up to Labor candidate for Wentworth George Newhouse at a polling station, shouted at him and then struck him across the face before walking away.
One witness at the Bellevue Hill Public school polling booth said Ms Overington yelled abuse and appeared furious.
“At first we thought who was this woman yelling at Newhouse, then she slapped him and we realised it was Caroline Overington,” the witness said.
Editor-in-chief of The Australian Chris Mitchell said Ms Overington had denied slapping Mr Newhouse and had had no idea he would be at the same voting booth she was attending with her seven-year-old twins.
She admitted pushing him away with an open hand when he approached her, later apologised for doing so and said she regretted there had been any further contact with the candidate.
“There was an incident and we are considering our options,” Mr Newhouse’s spokeswoman said. “It was Ms Overington.”
Ms Overington, a Walkley-winning reporter, has been embroiled in a spat over a series of emails to independent candidate Dani Ecuyer in which she urged Ms Ecuyer to preference Wentworth Liberal MP Malcolm Turnbull. Ms Ecuyer is the ex-girlfriend of Mr Newhouse.
The drama began last month, when ABC’s Media Watch ran a segment on the emails to Ms Ecuyer.
It was later revealed that Ms Overington also sent a series of flirtatious emails to Mr Newhouse, which were then published in rival papers.
In one email sent on October 9, published by the Sydney Morning Herald, Ms Overington asked the candidate to meet her in Bondi.
“Hey there … Let’s chat today, shall we? I could come out to Bondi, since I live there. And now you are single, I might even make a pass at you,” she reportedly said in the email.
Ms Overington later explained in her blog on this website that her emails were “playful in tone”.
This is a complete piece of fluff. Why didn’t they sack Overington?
They have extremely low standards.
In fact, Kenny is PERFECT for post election fever. Post Howard Government.
A funnily Australian take on dealing with CRAP!
Adam and others.
I once had a dog that used to tear the washing off the line almost as soon as it was placed there.
One day I decided to do something about it. I took the dog aside and gave it a lecture about its muddled thinking and inappropriate behaviour.
For my trouble it snarled and bit me on the arm.
The next time it it attacked the washing I swiped it across the head with a rolled up newspaper. Result -no more torn washing.
Why are you lot still discoursing with Glen?
PDF of latest Newspoll.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-4dec.pdf
Thanks Frank, now I’ve had my fix and can sleep at last
Do you get a break in the counting for Christmas LOL
My advice: Press charges against Overington, George. And sue the buggers! Might be nearly as profitable as a parliamentary pension
For anyone who is interested, here is what the Senate results would have looked like if it was a Double Dissolution:
New South Wales: ALP 5, LNP 5, GRN 1, with the Climate Change Coalition piling on the preference to get the last spot.
Victoria: Simply ALP 5, LNP 5, GRN 2.
Queensland: ALP 5, LNP 5, GRN 1, and Family First getting the last spot.
South Australia: Amazingly ALP 4, LIB 5, GRN 1 and Nick Xenophon getting 2 spots.
Western Australia: ALP 5, LIB 6 (the only 6 anywhere), GRN 1.
Tasmania: ALP 5, LNP 5, GRN 2.
ACT & NT as before
Total: ALP 31, LNP 33, GRN 8, XEN 2, FF 1, CCC 1.
Oh dear… I joked a while ago that I’ll probably be in the most marginal electorate in the country after the election (Robertson) and I’m not far wrong. If only I was as good at picking the nags.
I reckon I almost filled a complete wheelie (recycle) bin with letterbox and direct mail from both sides, gonna be worse next time ’round?
Wilkie still only 34 behind.
Howard C,
Fascinating! How did you work it out? Did you actually go mathematically thrugh a whole Senate count for every state? It certainly suggests the Greens would love a double dissolution, though Family First and Nick Xenophon would not.
Wilkie 222 behind : (
Chris Curtis – did actually calculate quotas and do the count the right way.
A double dissolution would be good for the Greens and the other minor parties, even Family First as they would be likely to get someone up somewhere. 2004 won’t happen again anytime soon.
Amazingly, the different primary votes for the two major parties ended up being to the LNP’s advantage, as Labor were closely beaten for about four or five spots.
Counting in the Senate is going backwards, about one quarter of a million votes have been taken out of the “counted” totals in the last 24 hours. The AEC are probably discovering errors in the Saturday night booth totals. There were many errors discovered in the House vote, I am told.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/04/2109482.htm
When I read the lead in to the story “Climate Change Minister Penny Wong…” I know the Libs are finished.
It says everything of why the Libs cannot adjust to the 21st Century.
Their denial of global warming.
Their ostracisation of homosexuals.
Howard’s racism.
All writ large.
Howard C,
A double dissolution is not really good for minor parties other than the Greens because it would, on your calculations, deprive Steve Fielding and Nick Xenophon of their crucial balance of power role and hand it to the Greens. Of course, the votes and the preference deals can be different, which changes things, but not in a predictable way.
619
John of Melbourne Says:
December 4th, 2007 at 12:15 am
Ron Brown I wish I could believe you but I think that Keatings calander stopped in 1996, lol.
I don’t think it is a big deal that Howard lost his seat as he lost Government and was going to go regardless.
This has to be the quote of the year – no big deal that a PM lost his seat!
Yeh, like that happens every election.
Fool.
Labor ahead in McEwen now
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefsByVoteType-13745-226.htm
Janet’s writing crap (again):
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/conservatives_must_join_rights_talks
But have a read of the bloggs! She must love getting beaten up by lawyers. And to think her PhD. was publicly funded.
McEwen still shows Bailey 217 in front?
Keating was so arrogant that he just used Blaxland as a way to further his career. I feel sorry for that electorate because it’s the poorest urban electorate in the country, and yet Labor has done virtually nothing to improve it at all (even on a state level). Did Keating even live in Blaxland as a Treasurer? It’s not surprising that he now decided to live on a WATERFRONT property in an exclusive neighbourhood – so what’s wrong with Blaxland that he can’t live in it now? Yep, just continue to use the safe electorate to further your own career Keating, good job. What a great man! [/sarcasm]
The Liberals are definitely in front in McEwen.
The AEC page “cityblue” references seems to be 20000 votes out of date.
Compare:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-226.htm
to
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefsByVoteType-13745-226.htm
In my opinion the only “Close Seats” Labor will win are Robertson and Flynn.
Soloman they are still behind but should catch Labor either today or tomorrow.
McEwen is now (10.49AM Thursday) back to a margin of 90 votes!
After additional absentee counting Bailey sits on 47,939 , while Mitchell is on 47,849
Around 1100 absentees outstanding, plus a few hundred postals and pre-polls, and 1091 provisionals.
This one isn’t over yet after all, it seems.
Cheers
Rod
The Libs had a good day in Robertson today. I haven’t been following it but they now only trail by 258 votes.
William, Robertson isn’t in your photo finishes list but it’s the closest seat where the Libs are trailing ?
Any bets on how long it will be before we really know the answer in the two closest ones (McEwen and Bowman)?
What with recounts, disputed votes, late postals and the like it is beginning to look like those involved in these two might still be wondering well past the Christmas Pud!
Anyone disagree with the view that , of the 8 AEC close seats:
1. Flynn, Solomon and Robertson will go to Labor
2) Swan, Dickson and Herbert will go to the Libs
3) Bowman and McEwen are the two which remain genuinely too close to call.
My own family, our closest friends in McEwen, and our next door neighbours, have come to the conclusion that we are the reason that Bailey lost McEwen.
8 votes between us.
And every one of us voted Green with the ALP as next pref.
In response to Glen (602):
You should probably remember that Keating was PM during the time of a global recession, and despite Liberal fear campaigns managed to keep interest rates at the lowest in the western world (other developed countries would have killed for a 17% interest rate). He certainly had the economic credentials, and through his guidance Australia was well and truly out of the recession and on the road to recovery by the time he was so shortsightedly thrown out of office in 1996.
What is missing from the table above is teh other minor party votes. If William had inside this information it would have shown a consolidation of the vote. the other interesting statistic in the senate votes is the reduced number in below the line votes. the only party that maintains a high BTL vote is the Greens which is a clear indication of the lack of trust in the Greens ticketing.