There are no fewer than seven seats which are still too close to call a week after polling day, with less than 0.3 per cent separating the two parties. The AEC’s official Close Seats list further includes Flynn and La Trobe, but these are all but certain to respectively go with Labor and Liberal. Corangamite briefly popped on to the list a few days ago, but it’s gone now. Two other seats that could be of at least theoretical interest come the preference count are O’Connor and Calare. In O’Connor, Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner (18.37 per cent) has a vague hope of getting ahead of Labor (20.42 per cent) on preferences from, among others, the Greens (6.68 per cent), and then overcoming Liberal member Wilson Tuckey (45.25 per cent) on Labor preferences. Similarly, in Calare the independent candidate Gavin Priestley (23.73 per cent) might be able to overcome Labor (24.84 per cent) with preferences from the Greens (2.60 per cent) and the Citizens Electoral Council (0.94 per cent, which was boosted by a donkey vote that will flow on to Labor) and then, just maybe, within spitting distance of John Cobb of the Nationals (47.89 per cent). For some reason only ordinary votes have been counted to this point in O’Connor.
Bowman. Labor’s Jason Young narrowly led Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming from election night until Tuesday when Laming got his nose in front on pre-polls, but this has proved to be the only close electorate where postals have favoured Labor. Young recovered the tiniest of leads and has inched slowly ahead to his current lead of 116 votes.
Herbert. Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay leads by just 60 votes, and I have unconfirmed reports that only provisional votes remain to be counted. Last time provisionals favoured Lindsay 279-257: if there’s the same number this time and they swing the same way as the rest, Colbran will close the gap by 45 votes and lose by 15.
McEwen. Another seat where Labor was ahead on election night, but postals put Liberal incumbent Fran Bailey a very handy 502 votes up on Monday. That looked like it might be enough, but a remarkably good partial count of absent votes pulled it into 111 yesterday. Further counting of pre-polls then pushed her lead out to 150.
Solomon. Labor’s Damian Hale was a full 1.0 per cent ahead on election night, but late factors such as overseas Defence Force votes have steadily whittled it down to 262 votes, or 0.3 per cent. That leaves some hope for CLP incumbent Dave Tollner, though Hale should probably get up.
Swan. Labor incumbent Kim Wilkie had a 134-vote lead on election night, but has since had to watch as each new batch of votes has delivered a few dozen votes to Liberal candidate Steve Irons, who currently leads by 239 and is looking increasingly likely to emerge as the only Liberal candidate to topple a sitting Labor MP.
Dickson. Labor’s Fiona McNamara had reason to feel confident about her 425-vote lead on election night, but a strong performance on postals by Liberal member Peter Dutton pushed him 268 votes ahead on Wednesday. The seat has since provided Labor with some rare late count good news, absents and pre-polls reeling in the lead in to just 106.
Robertson. This one hadn’t been on my watch list, with Labor candidate Belinda Neal holding a formidable 1094 vote lead on election night. However, Liberal member Jim Lloyd has kept whittling away Neal’s lead, once again being boosted by postals which have gone 58-42 in his favour. Neal’s lead is now just 273 – too close to comfort, but probably just enough.
To illustrate the recurring theme of Liberal comebacks, here is a table comparing party support by type of vote cast for 2004 and 2007, bearing in mind that the 2007 figures are still incomplete. While there was a slightly better performance by the Coalition in declaration votes across the board, it does seem they have managed to produce their best results on postals where it has mattered most.
| ORDINARY | ABSENT | PRE-POLL | POSTAL | |||||||||||||
| 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | |||||||||
|
Labor
|
44.0 | 38.3 | 5.8 | 39.3 | 34.0 | 5.4 | 41.1 | 34.9 | 6.2 | 40.2 | 34.4 | 5.9 | ||||
|
Coalition
|
41.7 | 46.5 | -4.8 | 40.8 | 44.2 | -3.4 | 45.3 | 48.3 | -3.0 | 49.2 | 52.9 | -3.7 | ||||
|
Greens
|
7.6 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | -1.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 0.1 | ||||
683 Comments
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wont howards memoirs be written in invisible ink??
And you thought counting a few million votes was difficult.
Landslide win for Putin in Russian elections
Try counting 100,000,000
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/03/2107453.htm?section=world
Some how ‘Putinslide’ just doesn’t sound right
Gusface. That depends if it is a “core or non-core” biography
I am noticing more and more reports of envelopes received back being greater then envelopes issued.
If you wish to view all the scrutiny stats in one location click here
In theory this information reports what’s is outstanding for each electorate.
A theory for us Melbcity?
Here is a few examples where the number of envelopes receievd back is greater then the number issued.. there are more… this is just a sample..
ACT DIVISION – FRASER
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-102.htm
NSW DIVISION – BARTON
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-104.htm
NSW DIVISION – BENNELONG
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-105.htm
Declaration Vote Scrutiny Progress Absent Provisional Pre-Poll Postal Total
Envelopes Issued 5,506 780 5,852 5,154 17,292
Envelopes Received 5,499 780 4,764 5,978 17,021
Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny 45 0 8 16 0
Ballot Papers Counted 4,798 0 4,499 4,948
NSW DIVISION – BEROWRA
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-106.htm
Right,
swearing in is done. Time to get down to business – great to see the new P.M has rolled his sleeves up and gotten stuck right in. What I’m wondering is who will be the unofficial minister responsible for burying the collection of loathsome little jellybacks that is the Liberal party? I don’t want revenge on behalf of progressives, I want revenge on behalf of democracy and decency! We need a thorough post-mortem examination of the diseased creature that the little sucubus Howard has now slid away from. Every drop of blood, every dollar, every lie, every disgusting act of cowardice needs to be accounted for and I, for one intend give all the energy i have to exposing just how despicable each member of that gang has been over the past dozen years.
Howard sits on Jeanette’s lap lamenting the threat to his pwecious widdle legacy – that revolting creature needs to know that its our generation that will write the history books and once each of his obscenities have been catalogued, that book will need to be sold in a brown paper bag.
This isn’t hatred – it is sheer unadulterated outrage and when it all becomes too much and i need to vomit it out, Woolstonecraft will drown in it!
but what are your real feelings optimist??
Howard’s memoir: “A Rodent Reflects”
Ahh, Kev is now the PM. I’m sure he’ll be a good one as well – the right man in the right job at the right time.
I’m not concerned with further trashing Howard’s name – he was a scumbag but he’s now an irrelevance and the best way to treat him is to ignore him.
Who said the Governor General is just a figurehead?
Watching Sky News broadcast of the swearing in just now, Michael Jeffrey really turned the knife for poor old Peter Garrett.
The GG has taken to giving a little comment about the nature of the portfolio to the newly-sworn in Minister ..
So in the case of Penny Wong he said words to the effect: “Securing the future of the nation’s water supply is a vital task”.
To Peter Garrett, he said, words to the effect: “Fostering the nation’s artistic community is important work”. Not a word about his role as Environment Minister.
Swan…
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-247.htm
Declaration Vote Scrutiny Progress Absent Provisional Pre-Poll Postal Total
Envelopes Issued 7,243 1,469 4,653 2,465 15,830
Envelopes Received 5,993 1,469 4,066 3,727 15,255
Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny 18 0 1 5 0
Ballot Papers Counted 4,735 0 3,256 3,064
2465 Postal votes issued … 3,727 received back…
So what are you scrutineers saying about the postals received being more than the postals issued?
Are you suspecting some kind of fraud?
Is there some other explanation for these discrepancies?
Great moments in Australian history
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/ruddswornin.jpg
Glen, ESJ, Isabella, LTEP, Tabitha, Steven K, Nostradamus: enjoy the moment.
The number of ballot papers issued should have been known on or prior to election day. I fail to see why the number recorded as being returned back is greater.
I do not believe in the conspiracy theory more like a stuff up. But I do believe that this information should have been included in the media feed and also on the Votes by group type screens…
BUT I fail to see how and why the number received back is greater then the number issued.
Antony Green may have an explanation.. I do not other then a stuff up…
This is the information that I have been requesting…. This is the information that shows what is outstanding and what might be received. This should have been publishsed in the media feed but is not…
Looking at the AEC updates.
La Trobe looks confirmed lost.
Herbert is not looking good.
Solomon looks good.
242
Melbcity Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 9:54 am
If you take as look at say McEwan etc
My Theory on aec confusing figures is:
the envelopes issued represent those issued to voters in their division whereas
the postals counted represent ANY postal votes received by that Division including Postals relating to another Division ??
If this is so , then the aec web site is useless in tracking/forcasting close seats
Ron Brown.
Accoridng to the AEC site the information on the number of ballot papers issued is for the division and teh number received back by the division.
The number of abllot papers issued forms part of each pollling place/office return. This data should have been finalsied on or prior to election day.
I am very pleased that this information is available.
It is the information that i had requested from Steve Tully in the Victroiuan State election. Information that Tully refused to make available.
I am concerend that teh EAC might adopt the Tully approach and avoid providng the data. (I think there should be a break down of the absentee vots to show where they were recorded – This is information that use to be publishsed in the final returned).
In Victoria had this information been provided by Tully as expecetd then teh errors in his count/data-entry would not have occured. In his case it was a lack of due dillengence and his failure to respond in a timely fashion to re
Ron Brown.
According to the AEC site the information on the number of ballot papers issued is for the division and the number received back by the division.
The number of ballot papers issued forms part of each polling place/office return. This data should have been finalized on or prior to election day.
I am very pleased that this information is available. (And encourage the AEC to work on any problems idetified and incorporate this information in ist data feeds and Votes by vote type pages…
This is the information that I had requested from Steve Tully in the Victorian State election. Information that Tully refused to make available.
I am concerned that the AEC might adopt the Tully approach and avoid providing the data. (I think there should be a break down of the absentee votes to show where they were recorded – This is information that use to be published in the final returned).
In Victoria had this information been provided by Tully as expected then the errors in his count/data-entry would not have occurred. In his case it was a lack of due diligence and his failure to respond in a timely fashion to requests for polling statistics on the number of ballots papers issued.
I’m presuming there are army personnel serving overseas who are based in Townsville. Would their votes have been counted yet?
If you look at the AEC site the information on the number of ballot papers published is for the division and the number received by the division.
This information forms part of the poling place return and should have been finalised on or prior to election day (They do not issue postal votes on election day)
I am very happy that the AEC has published this information.
This is the same information that I had requested from steve Tully (Victoria) but Tully refused to make it available.
Had Tully provided similar statistics as requested his disastrous errors in the count/data entry process would have been readily identifiable and prevented.
I am concerned that the AEC might take the Tully approach and prevent this data form being published in future.
There should be a break down of the Absentee vote by location (It sue to be part f teh final election returns) I see no reason why it is not incorporated in the media feed and listed on the Votes by Voter type page.
I think we should ignore the declaration vote scrutiny progress, as it doesn’t make much sense. Just look at the % counted for each seat, given that about 5% won’t vote, and you should be able to draw conclusions about what can possibly happen, given current trends. At this stage, most counting has been pre-polls and postals, which favour the Tories, with not very much absentee counting yet.
Sorry for the multiple posts.. I thought the system had not updated properly.
Charlie all the voets shoudl have been properly accounted for on elction day Even those form Overseas… Each polling place is required to submitt a polling place return which outlines how many ballot papers they have issued. Postal votes where stop beinsing issued prior to election day…
The AEC should know exactly how many ballot papers have been issued the day after… Clearly there is something wrong… It needs review and fixing…
No Ron, the “envelopes issued” and the votes ultimately counted should match for the absent, pre-poll , and provisional tallies. The only area where there is likely to be a significant discrepancy is in the postals, where normally one finds some people obtaining a postal vote, but then not actually submitting one.
The number of “envelopes issued” relates specifically to applications for “declaration votes” applicable to the division concerned, not to votes for other divisions issued in that division.
Howard to release memoirs?
Bet he gets Henderson and Blainey to write it – any resemblance to the truth will be entirely coincidental.
Lord D… WHAT.., The data published shows what has been counted. The matches the published results on the votes by voter type page..
I would not ignore it.. Far from it. It is the basis of proper scrutiny of the count. Imagine if the Royal Mint printed money bout could not account for how much it printed and out in circulation.
I want an answer and the data corrected and more details break down on the absentee votes. All the data that is recorded on te Polling place return should be available.
I am very pleased the AEC has published in limited form this data.
Rod says :
the number of “envelopes issued” relates specifically to applications for “declaration votes” applicable to the division concerned,
not to votes for other divisions issued in that division.
Rod , can you explain what your last sentence means please ?
(since in McEwen the counted pre polls & postals are higher than the ‘received’
Rod yes the absentee pre-poll and provision should be 100% issued matched with returned…
Postals received back SHOULD NEVER be more then issued.. It is worth noting the percentage of postals issued to those returned and counted…
BUT if it is greater then something is wrong…
I was looking atb the percentage outstanding from the count. But I was surprised to see the number returned greater then issued…
Sorry I would like an explanation and I am not in the position of second guessing where the stuff up error is. That is the role of the AEC to explain.
Again I am very pleased the AEC is publishing this data . had Steve Tully don eso the Victorian Count would have been much much better..
Yes, but in the world where WWI isn’t fought, in 1954 there’s an exchange of nuclear weapons between Tsarist Russia and a democratic Germany expanding across Eastern Europe, and the entire northern hemisphere is left uninhabitable…
Has anyone seen any analysis on the impact, or lack thereof, of the Council Amalgamation issue here in QLD ?
Looking at the booths in the local council of Redcliffe, Labor enjoyed 14 – 15 % swings.
In Capricornia, a seat which was said to impacted by it, an overall 10% swing to Labor.
Rudd sworn in, and suddenly the world feels different, a sweet scent in the air – called democracy. Now we just have to get rid of all the dead fish. No doubt a few more will float to the surface over the coming months.
As for Howard, lets be fair, I think he did have greatness. To prove it:
A bad liar gets caught out easily
A good liar gets caught out rarely
A great liar keeps repeating his lie when caught out, until the listener is no longer sure what is true any more.
Truly, Little Johnny was great.
Petrie is Labor Again @ 275
Just shows that either:
1) QLD’ers aren’t stupid and can distinguish state/local from federal politics
2) QLD’ers are stupid and forgot about the amalgamations when they voted/after Beattie retired
275 Petrie is Labor again
Regarding Council amalgamations, I haven’t seen any analysis, but it can’t have been much of a vote changer.
I always thought it was a dead issue in the big urban conglomerations, where they made perfect sense. I was in Cairns years ago when the former Mulgrave Shire Council and Cairns City were amalgamated. Nobody was bothered except the Councillors; even the Council staff realised there was still plenty of work to do, and hence no threat to their jobs.
Where it might cause pain is precisely in the areas that need the reform most – small country towns with no industry and Council jobs being amoung the few safe ones left. Surely though, that would only matter in a few safe National Party seats. Given that even Herbert and other regional coastal seats still saw large swings to Labor, it seems to have been a fizzer.
IMO the Nationals kicked up a song and dance precisely because some of their own members were the threatened Councillors concerned. But that doesn’t mean they are owed a job for life. Many of those Councils only exist because the rest of us taxpayers massively subsidise them. And it isn’t just economic rationalism – they are living ghost-towns. Look at the social statistics for many small remote towns – all the young peope leave, and quality of life is miserable, because there is simply no reason to be there, but people are too afraid to move away. I know many people work hard in the country, and some towns are thriving. But we don’t pretend that every unviable industry in our cities must be kept alive at any cost. Why do we do it in the bush?
Latest AEC update from Dickson-Labor just 27 votes behind. And Labor is slowly increasing its lead in Bowman, out to 163 votes now. But Herbert looks like it is slipping away, Colbran is about 150 behind. I’m not sure Robertson or Solomon are quite all over yet, but Labor still has handy leads late in the count. No new numbers yet today on McEwen, so that one’s still in play too.
If Solomon, Robertson and Bowman all hold, and Dickson and McEwen are won, that’s a parliament of 86-62-2. And with so many new Labor members enjoying the benefit of encumbency next election, that really puts Labor in an extremely strong position next time around.
Danny (Off topic) I often wonder what would have been had the winners of WW1 conflicts not divided the Europe the way they had and had Russia succeeded in re-securing constantinople as the centre of the Orthodox religion. (The Turks captured Constantinople from the Greeks) The Crimean War (Zsar not Soviets)(In which so many streets in St kilda Victoria are named after) What if for example they did not happen … Was it an over reaction to the various power struggles.. Most of the current day conflicts in Eastern Europe can be related back to WW1 and even further back… I do not see any war as being a positive outcome let alone the current conflicts that we so readily portray as insurgents as opposed to combattants or freedom fighters…
I’d be willing to trade Herbert away to get rid of Dutton.
Sadly, Labor is 127 (not 27) votes behind in Dickson.
Another title suggestion for the memoirs:
‘Non-Core Pawn: Howard’s Role in the War on Terror’
Seems like the Queensland Libs have a couple of options left. Put all eight members on a rotating Leadership roster or find a compromise candidate that all can find acceptable.
The most likely compromise candidate would be Ray Stevens the former Gold Coast City Councillor and now member for Robina, but when the situation is a four all split and with the Santoro faction never showing any signs of compromise on any issue to date, a rotating roster might seem better. It would do nothing for stability but look at the number of CV’s that will proudly be bearing Leader of the Queensland Parliamentary Liberal Party. Who of the eight could resist a shot at being top of the tree so soon after getting into parliament?
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/sort-it-out-nelson-tells-flegg/2007/12/03/1196530531754.html
I hope Kevin Rudd drops the jingoism of being a “Queenslander”.
Sure Qld delivered us a Labor victory but with the exception of the Senate what the hell does ’state of origin’ have to do with running the country.
Does it help with Kevin’s mythology just like his family being share farmers?
Maybe the mythology does work on the public. But we have had Labor Prime Minster with humble backgrounds (like Chifley) and privilege backgrounds (like Whitlam).
At the end of the day PMs get judge on their actions (or inaction as with Mr Howard)
(OFF TOPIC)
Melbcity: I certainly agree with you that WWI was unnecessary, and unjustifiable given the costs. I just don’t think the alternatives histories are necessarily attractive, it’s impossible to know what would have happened in them.
four out of nine seats within 0.5% aare favouring the ALP at present. Landeryou’s Election Map
To find out how Amy votes are still to be counted you need to vies the scrutiny web page link on the AEC web site. (There is a AEC icon on the Landeryou’s Election Map which goes to the AEC vote summary page. The Scrutineers menu is located in the top section of the electorate page.
Note there is a discrepancy in the number of votes issued and the reported number returned. The ratio between counted and returned shows what is outstanding. The AEC have been notified but no reply received to date.
Antony Green any explaination? …. have ballots appeared from nowhere….
It could be that John was printing ballots in a hope of securing Bennelong
But is Swan that worries me more… Maybe the AEC is still issuing ballot papers 
… I think not…
#
282
Ferny Grover Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:24 pm
Sadly, Labor is 127 (not 27) votes behind in Dickson.
Labor will just lose Dickson by over 150 , Dutton has a big 2PP % lead in postal
Because the ordinary , absentee & pre poll 2PP % ’s are close between ALP & LCP
it is impossible for the ALP to catch up
Sad but true Ron. Dutton will be able to strut his stuff around Canberra (where he will no doubt be on Nelson’s front bench) for one more term. At least he will have to do some work – and hopefully show some uncharacteristic humility – in his seat if he wants to hold it next time.
The ABC data (Which is also accessible via the ABC icon next to the AEC icon on the Landeryou’s Election Map does not contain any information as to what is still to be counted. This is only available on the Scrutiny Web page or you can down load all 150 electorates stats here via a live screen scrape
I might publish a close seat scrutiny summary screen scrapper. Cut down on traffic load…
All the best.. Have fun…
Dutton is actually making up ground he was 50.07 ahead yesterday now he is 50.8 ahead today, the Dutman will be elected if the current flow of postals and pre-poll votes continues
Anything under 150 votes will go to a recount…
By the end of it Dutton will be ahead by more than 150 Melbcity IMHO.
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