There are no fewer than seven seats which are still too close to call a week after polling day, with less than 0.3 per cent separating the two parties. The AEC’s official Close Seats list further includes Flynn and La Trobe, but these are all but certain to respectively go with Labor and Liberal. Corangamite briefly popped on to the list a few days ago, but it’s gone now. Two other seats that could be of at least theoretical interest come the preference count are O’Connor and Calare. In O’Connor, Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner (18.37 per cent) has a vague hope of getting ahead of Labor (20.42 per cent) on preferences from, among others, the Greens (6.68 per cent), and then overcoming Liberal member Wilson Tuckey (45.25 per cent) on Labor preferences. Similarly, in Calare the independent candidate Gavin Priestley (23.73 per cent) might be able to overcome Labor (24.84 per cent) with preferences from the Greens (2.60 per cent) and the Citizens Electoral Council (0.94 per cent, which was boosted by a donkey vote that will flow on to Labor) and then, just maybe, within spitting distance of John Cobb of the Nationals (47.89 per cent). For some reason only ordinary votes have been counted to this point in O’Connor.
Bowman. Labor’s Jason Young narrowly led Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming from election night until Tuesday when Laming got his nose in front on pre-polls, but this has proved to be the only close electorate where postals have favoured Labor. Young recovered the tiniest of leads and has inched slowly ahead to his current lead of 116 votes.
Herbert. Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay leads by just 60 votes, and I have unconfirmed reports that only provisional votes remain to be counted. Last time provisionals favoured Lindsay 279-257: if there’s the same number this time and they swing the same way as the rest, Colbran will close the gap by 45 votes and lose by 15.
McEwen. Another seat where Labor was ahead on election night, but postals put Liberal incumbent Fran Bailey a very handy 502 votes up on Monday. That looked like it might be enough, but a remarkably good partial count of absent votes pulled it into 111 yesterday. Further counting of pre-polls then pushed her lead out to 150.
Solomon. Labor’s Damian Hale was a full 1.0 per cent ahead on election night, but late factors such as overseas Defence Force votes have steadily whittled it down to 262 votes, or 0.3 per cent. That leaves some hope for CLP incumbent Dave Tollner, though Hale should probably get up.
Swan. Labor incumbent Kim Wilkie had a 134-vote lead on election night, but has since had to watch as each new batch of votes has delivered a few dozen votes to Liberal candidate Steve Irons, who currently leads by 239 and is looking increasingly likely to emerge as the only Liberal candidate to topple a sitting Labor MP.
Dickson. Labor’s Fiona McNamara had reason to feel confident about her 425-vote lead on election night, but a strong performance on postals by Liberal member Peter Dutton pushed him 268 votes ahead on Wednesday. The seat has since provided Labor with some rare late count good news, absents and pre-polls reeling in the lead in to just 106.
Robertson. This one hadn’t been on my watch list, with Labor candidate Belinda Neal holding a formidable 1094 vote lead on election night. However, Liberal member Jim Lloyd has kept whittling away Neal’s lead, once again being boosted by postals which have gone 58-42 in his favour. Neal’s lead is now just 273 – too close to comfort, but probably just enough.
To illustrate the recurring theme of Liberal comebacks, here is a table comparing party support by type of vote cast for 2004 and 2007, bearing in mind that the 2007 figures are still incomplete. While there was a slightly better performance by the Coalition in declaration votes across the board, it does seem they have managed to produce their best results on postals where it has mattered most.
| ORDINARY | ABSENT | PRE-POLL | POSTAL | |||||||||||||
| 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | |||||||||
|
Labor
|
44.0 | 38.3 | 5.8 | 39.3 | 34.0 | 5.4 | 41.1 | 34.9 | 6.2 | 40.2 | 34.4 | 5.9 | ||||
|
Coalition
|
41.7 | 46.5 | -4.8 | 40.8 | 44.2 | -3.4 | 45.3 | 48.3 | -3.0 | 49.2 | 52.9 | -3.7 | ||||
|
Greens
|
7.6 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | -1.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 0.1 | ||||
683 Comments
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That’s true Glen – but it doesn’t mean the good citizens of Dickson will be ably represented. Ummm….the Dutman??
Dutton ahead by 160 votes with 95% counted yeeha!
Well Ferny i suppose it remains to be seen whether a trade unionist is a better representative for the people of Dickson than a former police officer and minister.
Still his electorate if he wins will be on a knife edge in 2010.
Unionist? BOO! Unionists do bad stuff wear braces and are bullies.
What is it with Tories and trade unionists? I realise that John (I-seem-to-have-lost-my-seat) Howard had a pathological loathing of unions, but it’s sad that his party has blindly followed him down this path. And yes, Mr Dutton’s seat will be very very marginal. So his electorate can expect some attention for a change. Dutman……chuckle.
Its looking like Flynn, Solomon, Robertson and Bowman will go ALP (though Roberson is getting closer), and we’ll have 84-64-2.
Good result.
297
Pancho – not all but some do.
FG – I’m not saying all Unions are bad, just that they’ve got some rough sorts in there. Also i wonder if Dickson is set aside for Union candidates like what happened in Petrie with Yvette D’Ath getting pre-selected because she came from a Union that was reserved this seat to run a candidate of its choice in.
With only 15% of private sector workforce as Union members i think the ALP can find better candidates who aren’t all union members/officials IMHO.
Ferny, I saw some in an ad once, and they flicked off these lights in a hairdressers!
There will probably be yet another redistribution in Qld before 2010, since the state population is growing by one whole quota every three years. Talk about who will win what seat in Qld in 2010 is therefore a bit academic.
The Council amalgamations “issue” obviously died away very quickly. Labor would not have won Flynn, Blair and Dawson if it had still been running.
Any theories on why the big swing in North Qld didn’t deliver Herbert? It looked much more winnable than either Dawson or Leichhardt.
“Pancho – not all but some do.”
Glen, I know. I’ve DEFINITELY seen Joe McDonald wearing braces, and I challenge anyone to prove that he doesn’t.
We can call Dickson for Peter Dutton now, unfortunately. In 2004 the turnout was 95.14% – suggesting that there is unlikely to be many votes left to count. He’s safe.
I agree with Lefty E – it’s looking like 84 seats, with some hope left in McEwen.
Not enough your rights at work people Adam perhaps, or that Herbert still had its sitting member running while in Leichhardt and Forde this wasn’t the case.
Adam
Any idea which State the extra Qld seat will come from next time? Given it was NSW last time and WA is booming I’m guessing either SA or Vic?
Dickson is definitively lost for the reasons I bloged earlier
(Dutton is getting a 13% margin in the 2PP for postal votes so its mathematically impossible for the ALP to catch up as the 2PP % in the other voter types are close
Dawson had a sitting member and she got a huge swing against her, as did the members in Blair, Longman and Petrie. I dare say Lindsay is popular locally, but so is Colbran, so it’s a bit of a mystery. The Townsville Bulletin (a very conservative paper) wrote Lindsay off weeks before the election. Maybe Labor thought it was in the bag and diverted resources elsewhere.
Adam, will Colbran get another shot at it do you think?
I think Victoria is now growing faster than NSW, so Qld might get its new seat from NSW again.
Actually last week Joe Mc was on the news dressed as Santa delivering gifts to underpriverlidged families.
Shouldn’t have pressed submit. I was about to say that he, along with Tinley, Handshin, Daniels and Cocks, is one of the Labor candidates I’m particularly disappointed not to have in parliament.
Longman got redistributed too though Adam.
Blair was on a small margin of 5.5% if the swing was on Cameron was stuffed.
But there is a reason for Dawson the Nats are f’ed to put it bluntly they are a spent force IMHO, they’ll probably die a slow death not the quick and painless death of the Democrats.
Charlie, I know nothing about internal Qld ALP politics, so I have no idea.
319
Charlie – Tinley should have got Hasluck IMHO, Stirling was always going to be a tough ask they put their best candidate in a tough seat. Instead the ALP have a reject union deadbeat in Jackson back in Parliament while Maj. Tinley misses out, go figure.
OK to dowmload a live extract of the votes outstanding stats for Close seats only – click here
Labor people always wrongly assume the Liberals SOMEHOW care for ‘workers’
The fact is the Liberals ( & its predecessor the UAP) has ALWAYS represented the employer sector interest
Hence the liberals dislike for the workers representatives (the Unions)
which is camoflaged by pretending to be interested in family values & ‘individuals’
Solomon looks safe.
The gap to the Libs in Herbert is extending, now 119.
Adam how is it that McEwen has twice the number of constituents then Bass… I thought re-distributions were meant to be within a 10% variance…
Oops that is 108
Tollner is just 183 votes behind with 88% counted and he’s ahead 60-40 on postals, anything could happen Dave could hang on.
Herbert = Lavarack Barracks. Look at the Annandale booths.
Re 326
Tasmania has (and will likely always have) a fixed 5 seat representation in the HoR. This is part of the provisions of s24 of the Constitution. Giveb the state’s population, the Tas electorates have a much smaller no. of electors than mainland seats. It is my understanding that this effectively excludes Tasmania from the redistribution melting pot.
“how is it that McEwen has twice the number of constituents then Bass… I thought re-distributions were meant to be within a 10% variance…”
Tasmania has a mimimum of 5 seats due to being an original state. This is more than it would be entitled to on the basis of population alone, so the enrolment per seat in Tasmanian electorates is less than elsewhere.
307 [With only 15% of private sector workforce as Union members i think the ALP can find better candidates who aren’t all union members/officials IMHO.]
Sour grapes is a wonderful thing, glen. I thought a winning candidate was a good candidate. Know that’s a weird concept for Liberal supporters but that is the first test of how good a candidate is electorally speaking. All else follows.
“It is my understanding that this effectively excludes Tasmania from the redistribution melting pot.”
Boundaries within Tasmania can change due to internal demographic changes – most reccently in 1999.
“Labor people always wrongly assume the Liberals SOMEHOW care for ‘workers’”
What a bizarre statement. Labor people assume the exact opposite. What do you think the election was about?
Glen, the WA ALP quite rightly put the non-union candidate in Stirling, which is a more middle-class seat, and the ex-union candidate in Hasluck, which is a more working-class seat. Since the working-class areas swung and the middle-class areas (broadly speaking) didn’t, we won Hasluck and didn’t win Stirling.
Labor has been a bit unlucky in WA. We got a statewide swing of 2.3%, and every seat except Cowan and Swan swung towards us. Yet we finish up net one down.
Oh I dunno Steve, I’ve known quite a few useless candidates on both sides who nonetheless won their seats. as for Glen’s comments – this victimisation of unionists must stop. One of the reasons that the Coalition lost office is because of this spiteful, exclusionary attitude towards those groups they didn’t agree with or who were seen to be different. It’s time to pull the country together and move on.
Steve @ 322
I think you just contradicted the history of input in this blog (with the exception of Glen & his types).
“I thought a winning candidate was a good candidate”.
I haven’t seen any of the party faithful here say a good word for a Coalition sitting member. If they have it was through gritted teeth.
Join Santa’s Union
http://www.union-network.org/unisite/sectors/commerce/Multinationals/Wal-Mart_Santa_Claus_did_not_shop_at_their_stores.htm
I paticulalry like the German reference in here. Those nasty Germans have UNIONS! – I bet they wear braces.
check the ministry photo bludgers!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/03/2107982.htm
The ruddster did it!! He brought that tricky bastard down, against considerable odds.
Howard = GAWWWWN!
Still scratching myself in disbelief a week later…
C’mon DLP – there have been many nice things said about Petro Georgiou. May the Coalition find many more like him!
Oh – No!!
It’s a whole town full – and they’re demonstrating!
http://dankjaergaard.blogspot.com/2006/12/santa-claus-union-of-kiev.html
Hey, Adam!
What do you think about my predictions about “Flynn”, “Dawson” and “Capricornia” now.
I wasn’t far off was I ?
If the “Council Amalgamation” issue had any legs at all, then it would have surfaced very much so in those three electorates, which I confidently predicted it wouldn’t.
The only people pushing the issue were the traditional National supporters and beneficiaries from a hundred years of largess on the public teat.
True FG and I stand corrected but it doesn’t change my argument which is also yours.
That not all elected to Parliament are the best for the job but that’s politics.
To succeed you are a political animal at Branch level all the way through.
You have to a robust ego, be impervious to criticism, show no empathy for you competition, be willing to mislead, be willing to knife friend or foe and cover up all these short comings with rhetoric.
Cream does not always rise to the top in these circumstances
Someone at the aec is a Liberal cynic
Sadly the gains labor has made in Solomon , Herbert , Bowman & Dickson is BECAUSE non postal votes are being counted . It is illusionary
The 2PP advantage in postals the Liberals have approximately is
Solomon 18%
Herbert 11%
Dickson 13%
Bowman 7% but in prepolls
So the todate count leads are false hope
Of the 9 doubtfuls if one calculates each voter type of uncounted of 2PP % votes
Labor wins Flynn & Robertson
Libs win 5 seats
under 100 votes in it:
Solomon (libs in front by 79 ) & Bowman (Labor in front by 29)
342
Then there’s the theory that political organisations are like septic tanks . . .
Sadly DLP, cream doesn’t rise – but turds float – in politics. And it seems that only when the government front bench has a critical mass of turds (the turd quotient?) do the public flush them from office.
FG – brilliant
Now that is visual metaphor for all time.
Spot on regarding the last flush over a week ago. To continue a theme, whilst the effulent has gone the smell might be around for a while. Keen to see how the new air freshener will improve the throne room.
The air is smelling sweeter already DLP.
I notice that the Nats are so bereft of talent (and so loathsome towards Barnaby Joyce) that they elected Nigel Scullion as deputy to Warren Truss even though Scullion is not actually a National Party member (he’s a Country Liberal member).
Ron Brown, I hope your’e getting your jollies by this counting in close seats. Given that the libs are in power NOWHERE, perhaps that extra few seats might give you a warm glow as your party sails into oblivion…
I prefer to enjoy the fact the Kevin Rudd has been sworn is as the new PM!!
“turd quotient” – very perceptive FG
Ron
Good theory except Jason Young is getting 51%+ of postals in Bowman. I expect the pre poll numbers will get closer.
Can’t see Laming winning from here.
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