There are no fewer than seven seats which are still too close to call a week after polling day, with less than 0.3 per cent separating the two parties. The AEC’s official Close Seats list further includes Flynn and La Trobe, but these are all but certain to respectively go with Labor and Liberal. Corangamite briefly popped on to the list a few days ago, but it’s gone now. Two other seats that could be of at least theoretical interest come the preference count are O’Connor and Calare. In O’Connor, Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner (18.37 per cent) has a vague hope of getting ahead of Labor (20.42 per cent) on preferences from, among others, the Greens (6.68 per cent), and then overcoming Liberal member Wilson Tuckey (45.25 per cent) on Labor preferences. Similarly, in Calare the independent candidate Gavin Priestley (23.73 per cent) might be able to overcome Labor (24.84 per cent) with preferences from the Greens (2.60 per cent) and the Citizens Electoral Council (0.94 per cent, which was boosted by a donkey vote that will flow on to Labor) and then, just maybe, within spitting distance of John Cobb of the Nationals (47.89 per cent). For some reason only ordinary votes have been counted to this point in O’Connor.
Bowman. Labor’s Jason Young narrowly led Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming from election night until Tuesday when Laming got his nose in front on pre-polls, but this has proved to be the only close electorate where postals have favoured Labor. Young recovered the tiniest of leads and has inched slowly ahead to his current lead of 116 votes.
Herbert. Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay leads by just 60 votes, and I have unconfirmed reports that only provisional votes remain to be counted. Last time provisionals favoured Lindsay 279-257: if there’s the same number this time and they swing the same way as the rest, Colbran will close the gap by 45 votes and lose by 15.
McEwen. Another seat where Labor was ahead on election night, but postals put Liberal incumbent Fran Bailey a very handy 502 votes up on Monday. That looked like it might be enough, but a remarkably good partial count of absent votes pulled it into 111 yesterday. Further counting of pre-polls then pushed her lead out to 150.
Solomon. Labor’s Damian Hale was a full 1.0 per cent ahead on election night, but late factors such as overseas Defence Force votes have steadily whittled it down to 262 votes, or 0.3 per cent. That leaves some hope for CLP incumbent Dave Tollner, though Hale should probably get up.
Swan. Labor incumbent Kim Wilkie had a 134-vote lead on election night, but has since had to watch as each new batch of votes has delivered a few dozen votes to Liberal candidate Steve Irons, who currently leads by 239 and is looking increasingly likely to emerge as the only Liberal candidate to topple a sitting Labor MP.
Dickson. Labor’s Fiona McNamara had reason to feel confident about her 425-vote lead on election night, but a strong performance on postals by Liberal member Peter Dutton pushed him 268 votes ahead on Wednesday. The seat has since provided Labor with some rare late count good news, absents and pre-polls reeling in the lead in to just 106.
Robertson. This one hadn’t been on my watch list, with Labor candidate Belinda Neal holding a formidable 1094 vote lead on election night. However, Liberal member Jim Lloyd has kept whittling away Neal’s lead, once again being boosted by postals which have gone 58-42 in his favour. Neal’s lead is now just 273 – too close to comfort, but probably just enough.
To illustrate the recurring theme of Liberal comebacks, here is a table comparing party support by type of vote cast for 2004 and 2007, bearing in mind that the 2007 figures are still incomplete. While there was a slightly better performance by the Coalition in declaration votes across the board, it does seem they have managed to produce their best results on postals where it has mattered most.
| ORDINARY | ABSENT | PRE-POLL | POSTAL | |||||||||||||
| 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | |||||||||
|
Labor
|
44.0 | 38.3 | 5.8 | 39.3 | 34.0 | 5.4 | 41.1 | 34.9 | 6.2 | 40.2 | 34.4 | 5.9 | ||||
|
Coalition
|
41.7 | 46.5 | -4.8 | 40.8 | 44.2 | -3.4 | 45.3 | 48.3 | -3.0 | 49.2 | 52.9 | -3.7 | ||||
|
Greens
|
7.6 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | -1.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 0.1 | ||||
683 Comments
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Cmon FG at least Nigel Scullion made Senate QT more interesting when he shouted his answers lol that was hilarious.
BTW the LCP members like Tollner and Scullion ect sit in both Liberals and Nationals caucus or so my understanding goes.
Good to see you Possum! And thankyou for your discerning eye. Feel free to use the term.
Glen, the rest of the party was just hoping that practice would lead to improvement.
Glen, I beleive the CLP members sit with the Libs in the Reps and the Nats in the Senate, though they are a seperate party organisation (as are the Qld Nats incidentally).
What is it with this
HOWARD, John Winston (Previous Member) Liberal
He is 2113 votes behind McKEW, Maxine (Labor) and, as far as I can work out, there are 2989 votes to be counted (no updates since 30/11/07). That’s according to http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-105.htm
Surely it’s time for him to do the right thing and say uncle?
Quite correct FG, and I believe the CLP (NT) is a good model that the conservative parties of Queensland could follow IMHO.
Viggo, somehow I doubt he will do the honourable thing and concede. Maxine (on whom I won $124 and who I will love forever) has already claimed the seat.
viggoP @ 355 – if/when he does, what’s the bet he doesn’t mention maxine’s name?
Glen, I’ve said in earlier posts that a merger would just mean a National takeover of the Libs in Qld. In my view the Libs need a complete brand differentiation from Seeny et al if the conservatives are to be a force in Qld. There is no way the Liberal voters of the great southeast will ever again vote for a National Party premier. So, until the Libs get their collective act together and begin to recruit some decent candidates, the ALP will reign unchallenged in the Sunshine State.
A quick question for this knowlegable thread.
Why do Parliamentary Secretaries get sworn in? Do they have the same responsibilities to the Crown as Ministers?
Thanks in advance for the answer.
360 Some info at http://www.houseforthenation.gov.au/explore/ahn03_p7.html
DLP – parliamentary secretaries, though junior to ministers in the government structure, receive a commission from the crown, as do ministers.
FG – That Nats can never be the senior partner in Queensland State politics in any Coalition IMHO, they’ve gone from 49 seats in 1986 to 17 seats in 2006 and the ALP has 59 seats where on earth will the Coalition find the other 22 seats it needs to win back government, the Nats can’t do this only the Liberals can win the majority of these seats. I dont think the Nats can win seats on the Sunshine coast.
Once the Nats disappear the Liberals can be the one force in Queensland.
Parly Secs are members of the Executive Council the same as ministers, so they get sworn in and and they are styled “The Honourable” like ministers. So now we have (get this) The Honourable Greg Combet, The Honourable Bill Shorten, The Honourable Maxine McKew and The Honourable Dr Mike Kelly. Ahhh.
Still Adam they can’t beat The Right Honourable John Winston Howard.
Except he isn’t. He’s only an Hon.
The last Rt Hon in Australian politics was Ian Sinclair. It was abolished in 1983.
Actually he is Adam.
http://www.pmo.gov.my/WebNotesApp/PMMain.nsf/f51b39741cd58c9448257084000a19c8/f1b55d7d0333c8f048256fdc002a16f7?OpenDocument
THE RT.HON.JOHN HOWARD
PRIME MINISTER OF AUSTRALIA
No he’s not. That website is incorrect.
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/members/member.asp?id=ZD4
And now we have The No Longer Honourable John Howard. Ahhh ++
Glen – and there lies the dilemma for conservative politics (and indeed for good governance) in Qld. I don’t see how merging the 2 parties will solve this problem. The dominant party machine in Qld is still the National Party, which is why a merger would simply be a NP takeover of the Libs. The Nats would still want those with a Nat heritage to be the Leader, and they would dominate the policy debates. This will never be acceptable to the voters of Qld (especially in the populated centres of the southeast). The Libs need a strategy, (and the leadership team to do it), to grow – and that will mean moving away from the Nats, in policy terms at the very least.
The title is retained for life. Whether a particular politician is in fact honourable is of course a matter of opinion.
Well Well i was wrong Adam and you were right but why on earth would the ALP abolish this distinction???
He could always be, the Retired John Howard.
Maybe in the old days they used “Rt Honourable” to mean “Honourable? yeah right!” Its the only interpretation I can think of that makes sense.
For a discussion of Rt Hon check out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Right_Honourable
I think you had to be appointed to the privy council to be a Right Hon.
Glen
“I dont think the Nats can win seats on the Sunshine coast.”
Tell that to Fiona Simpson.
Still the Canadians still have it automatically for PMs.
The Canucks have it right IMHO.
It’s official. Howard’s superior economic management claims were a prime example of Goebellism writ large:
http://business.theage.com.au/complacent-johns-decade-of-neglect/20071202-1eef.html
377
ruawake – she musta got lucky lol.
Rt Hon signifies you are a member of the British Privy Council. All British titles and honours were abolished for Australia in 1983 by Bob Hawke.
The only exception is that the Lord Mayors of the capital cities are traditionally styled “The Rt Hon” while they are in office, but they don’t keep the title for life.
Canada has its own Privy Council and Canadian Rt Hons are members of it, not the British Privy Council. Australia doesn’t have a Privy Council. New Zealand however still allows its PMs to be appointed to the British Privy Council, so Helen Clark is a Rt Hon. The NZ Labour Party is much less republican than the ALP for some reason.
Adam but what about Canada??
PMs can be Rt Hon for Life, without PC??
The Right Honourable Stephen Joseph Harper
PC MP MA
ruawake – she musta got lucky lol.
Nah she inherited the seat from her dad.
Like McClelland
Last I heard, Fiona Simpson was bragging that she’d never ‘got lucky’ in her life….being a good Christian girl an’ all.
Doug MClelland was a Senator, so Robert did not inherit Barton from him. The only members who were preceded in the same seat by their fathers are Joel Fitzgibbon and Harry Jenkins.
Well for all this talk about Toff tories, Downer didn’t inherit his seat from his dad.
In the current ministry:
Simon Crean is the son of Frank Crean, Deputy PM in the Whitlam govt.
Martin and Laurie Ferguson are sons of Jack Ferguson, Deputy Premier of NSW
Joel Fitzgibbon is the son of Eric Fitzgibbon MHR
Senator Nick Sherry is the son of Ray Sherry MHR
Senator Joe Ludwig is the son of Bill Ludwig, national president of the AWU
So Glen, are you saying that Downer’s preselection was solely on merit and had nothing to do with his family name??
Sir Alexander Downer was MHR for Angas 1949-64, a seat in the same general area as Mayo. Sir Alec was in turn the son of Senator Sir John Downer. SA has a long history of dynastic politics on the conservative side – Playfords, Butlers, McLeays, Downers, Wilsons etc
But Downer has been the only member for Mayo from 1984-.
Ferny Grove 379
Now that the mask has fallen, the charade of the Great Leader’s economic savvy will now be thoroughly ridiculed by many people who know what a con job it was.
Howard and his cronies were so long basking in the reflected glory of a genuflecting media that they really should have been using 100+ sunblock! They waltzed around believing their own spin and took every opportunity to tell us how magnificent they were and how fortunate we were, every man,woman and child, to live under their benign rule.
Ain’t lookin’ so good after the tumbrels transported them out of office, huh?
#
348
Andrew Says:
December 3rd, 2007 at 3:17 pm
Ron Brown, I hope your’e getting your jollies by this counting in close seats. Given that the libs are in power NOWHERE, perhaps that extra few seats might give you a warm glow as your party sails into oblivion…
I prefer to enjoy the fact the Kevin Rudd has been sworn is as the new PM!!
Your problem is you can not handle the reality that in the 9 seats , ALP may only win 2 (up to 4 if they win the 2 cliffhanghers)
The fact that I may be either an ALP or LCP supporter does NOT change my analysis
As I have always voted ALP should embarrass you in your lack of even handed judgement of vote counting
Talking about lineage in politics is rocky territory for all sides of politics so tread carefully.
Tories don’t have a mortgage on born to rule but at least our ruling class in Labor has some sense of social responsibility.
True KR…we the people gave their highnesses a Royal Flush
I hope Rudd and Swan are up for a 2009 recession.
I didn’t say Downer inherited his seat directly from his father. But he was certainly greatly helped by being a Downer. Let me hasten to say I see nothing wrong with that. I quite admire political dynasticism. Families like the Downers, the Anthonys, the Beazleys and the Creans, with long traditions of public service, are a good thing IMHO.
..cont’d
It reminds me of Rory Robertson’s quip: the economy has done more for this government than the government has done for the economy.
‘Bout sums it up, really.
398
So you hope there’s a recession in 2009 do you Glen? That’s not very sporting!
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