The standout finding of a very interesting post-election Newspoll survey of 1125 voters is a question on preferred Liberal leader: 34 per cent responded for Turnbull, just 18 per cent for Nelson and 14 per cent for Julie Bishop, with the optimistic Tony Abbott on 9 per cent. Rudd predictably is streets ahead of Brendan Nelson as preferred prime minister, leading 61 per cent to 14 per cent (91 per cent to 1 per cent among Labor voters).
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,259 Comments
would have been interesting to see whether nelson had an immediate impact on the TPP
The other result that jumps out at me is the 53% of people who state they’d chosen who they would vote for more than six months before the election. This was a 14% increase on 2004 (effectively matched by a 15% drop in people who nominated any date up to one month before the election). That pretty much sums up the result: people decided early that they were over Howard and the Coalition, and anything that happened in the campaign was just background noise.
Probably a drop, given his PPM rating! Anecdotally, I know more than one person who voted Liberal who’ve said they’d prefer Rudd to Nelson (largely because of the “intelligent design” fiasco).
I bet the line of Nelson being a “political hermaphrodite” that a read in one of the weekend papers has the potential to be damaging. It has the potential to be what “flip-flop” was to Beazley.
From UK Independent -US Republican plot to rig election 2008 -
http://www.truthout.org:80/docs_2006/120307K.shtml
Turnbull is not a great vote puller either but if you look at his polling last-week he did manage to avoid a devastating swing against him. Unlike Johnny.
Did we ever find out where those unaccounted for additional postal votes in Bennelong and Swan came from…
The most annoying thing about the newspoll is the 10% who made up their mind who they were going to vote for on the last day and the 20% who made up their mind in the last week.
This means that next election, once again, we will have to listen to politicians, commentators and Sol spruik on about how the Polls could still change because 1 in 5 make up their mind in the last week.
William, normally I find you to be just about the most astute commentator out there, but on this occasion, I respectfully submit that you and your early commenters are smoking crack.
The “standout finding” from this Newspoll is nothing to do with Turnbull or Nelson. It’s the remarkable table about ‘issues’, which pegged Health, education and water as the three most important issues for voters in this election, followed closely by the economy and the environment. Whereas interest rates and national security were stone cold motherless last, by a margin of some 25 points. Nothing else explains more clearly why Labor won. They owned the ideas in this election like none in more than 20 years.
The other interesting finding is the drop in percentage of voters who made up their mind in the final week of the campaign. This year it was an (albeit embarrassingly high) 20 percent. But in previous elections it’s been closer to 30 percent. And 53 of voters made up their mind more than 6 *months* prior to the campaign, compared to an historical average around 40. So there *were* plenty of voters waiting for Howard with Nerf bats after all.
This Newspoll is the first bit of quantitative data we’ve had to explain the election result, and the “standout finding” is that Labor *won* the election from opposition, not that the Coalition *lost* the election. It’s standard political wisdom ‘turn’d upside downe’.
Meanwhile, on the Turnbull/Nelson thing, the result is not surprising, nor is it especially informative.
Most of the “support” for Turnbull comes from the ‘oh yaah, I dun heard of ‘im’ factor. Turnbull is the only recognisable Liberal in punter land.
Turnbull also has the annoying habit of losing more ballots (Republic, party room) than he wins. He got pre-selected through the mother of all branch-stacks. And even though he ran a good campaign in Wentworth, his opponent was a turkey, and let’s face it, to be the winning Liberal in Wentworth is like winning a poll on whether mice will vote for cheese. (To be fair, Nelson’s ultra-safe seat of Bradfield is in the same category).
In any case, at 34 support, even the most optimistic assessment of such support is that it’s only the rusted-ons who are interested right now. They are probably the direct descendents of that deranged individual who kept yammering ‘I love you John!’ during Howard’s concession speech at the Wentworth. (Was it Piers?)
Don’t get me wrong, I’d prefer to see Turnbull leading the Liberals than Nelson, but in my experience, lending my support to any one party or individual has usually been the kiss of death for their political aspirations
Finally, how good is this for a scare campaign: 50% of Liberal leaders are former union-esque yelly people with megaphones, and the other 50% are lawyers. Are these the people you want running the country?
Sorry, one last thing then I’ll shut up, promise:
Nelson on 18 percent!
All together now: “Why on earth does this man even bother?”
Keep on counting!
LOL
Mercurius,
Although the issues finding is interesting, and I totally agree that Labor owned the ideas in the campaign, I suspect a lot of people say what they think they ought to say on that sort of stuff.
My suspicion is that the election was, to a significant extent, a referendum on Howard. And Howard lost convincingly.
I don’t care how many poll respondents feel they have to claim they made up their minds during the campaign because the campaign polls bounced all over the place, yet again, to sell newspapers and collect more television advertising bucks. Hugh MacKay has debunked the late decider myth numerous times and has nailed the winner (and why) at the start of the last two campaigns.
The most silly aspect this time around was that the worse a party performed during the week, the better the next poll would usually be. It was chalked down to “counter-intuitive” by the media making all these mega bucks from this bogus volatility.
William, Possums and others provided us with the fundamental election result narrative with their computations long before the final week of the campaign.
Am I the only one wondering what possible rationale 1% of Labor voters’ have for preferring the Admiral?
No Robert, Not at all.
I posit keystroke error (on behalf of the data compiler) as the explanation.
#14 Cos he’s a union boss.
How about ALP supporters who still have quite “internally processed” the victory – and so when asked, who’s your preffered leader, reflexively scream “Anyone but but the PM, anyone but the PM!!!!”
I still think of Howard when the news suggests that “The PM has done X” – then I think ‘hmm, that doesn’t sound like something Howard would do’ followed by ‘Of Course!!! The PM is KEVIN RUDD!’
Then I smile.
I don’t think that anyone is too surprised with these poll results. What I will be interested to see is where Rudd’s numbers go from here. Once he starts actually achieving some of the goals he has enunciated I would imagine that his PPM figures could go higher still. Is there any precedent for this or is this 61 as good as it gets?
Petrie – even if only 2% made up their mind late, we’d have the same amount of campaigning I’m afraid.
The 20% in the final week is dodgy – if the question were ‘when did you decide between Lib and ALP’ it would provide a possibly more useful stat.
Newspoll/The Oz are up to their old tricks: we now have the single issue of IR split into two issues ‘WorkChoices’ and ‘IR’. Nothing in the past few years suggest they are separate. The only reason for splitting this question would be to undervalue the electoral impact of the issue.
obviously newspoll underestimated the national party vote again, right Glen ?
hehehe..just kidding
anyway
yay a poll!
Gee, they were quick with this latest poll. Nelson hasn’t even named his front bench yet! Nelson’s real test will be when Parliament resumes to see if his team can score points against the government, then I will probably start to take more notice of the polls.
On another topic, also from The Australian:
Apology to George Newhouse
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22865525-5013948,00.html
Is COverington trying to inoculate against legal action?
A few things about this poll:
Re issues question: The wording is “Would you say each of the following issues was very important, fairly important or not important…”
Somehow, this three-pronged question is then turned into a percentage figure for each issue… I guess that “percentage support” is equated to people who say either very important or fairly important. Seems a bit flaky to me.
Also, I like to see that the second most preferred Leader of the Liberal Party is “Uncommitted” with 25% support…
I’d love to ask any of the 1% of Labour voters who (claim they) prefer Nelson: why?
Of course, I’d also love to ask the question of ‘Labor’ voters …
The last in “The Poll That Counts” video series is online: Bill Heffernan’s Payback. He spars with The Chaser and watches Howard’s concession speech in some discomfort. I have dedicated it to Justice Michael Kirby and Julia Gillard. See the collection on ‘Labor View from Broome’ by clicking my name above. This is reality video, taken on the floor of the National Tallyroom on Saturday night. Enjoy!
What an interesting time for the Libs.
A leader the public don’t care about and is languishing in polls for his own job.
A deputy who’s WA colleagues swung the votes necessary for his (and her) election (and who will be having more than a deputy’s share of the decisions because of this). Nelson is nothing if not beholden WA MPs. No Sorry and Workchoices is good for us all.
A shadow treasurer who holds diametrically opposing policies on these key issues and clearly, while being very polite, just waiting for the chance to swoop.
Another (probable) frontbencher who will stay loyal until he’s not!
Two or three former stars who will mentor! Just tipped out of govt and they need mentoring in opposition! Gives a whole new meaning to the word.
But don’t give up Brendan, you’ve snared 1% of Labor’s PPM already!
27 Throw in the State Liberals as well and the story becomes a Greek tragedy.
28 Ed: I think that this whole election saga has been a classic tragedy; a true tale of the downfall of the “great” through short-sighted pride and hubris, complete with an alternating Chorus of the mainstream media juxtaposed with the blogging community…
The Gods hate hubris.
So when is the old man gonna concede? Isn’t it conventional courtesy to do so when it is obvious that you have lost?
Peter Martin is starting to log the lies.
Lie 1: Kyoto targets.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/
Am interested what people think of Malcolm Turnbull.
It seems to me that he has truckloads of energy, drive, ambition and public profile. But I’m not sure that he is a very skillful politician. I don’t think that he really gets the amount of compromise that is involved in the political process, and I think that his dictatorial tendency is recognised and disliked by the public. He reminds me of Jeff Kennett without the sense of humour (which was the bit that people liked).
I suspect that Malcolm’s time in charge of the Liberals (and it will surely come) will end badly. The party room’s supposed unhappiness with Malcolm saying what policy positions would be held in his radio interview is in a small scale how I suspect the electorate will also respond to his leadership – no flexibility and therefore dwindling support as time goes by.
32 John, I think Malcolm embodies what the Liberals have to be to be relevant as a political force and to be able to devise an agenda suitable for the times.
His anti-political personna is seen as a minus in the political club but surely the times suit his way of doing things rather then the traditional party way.
I’m sure he can bide his time and gain considerable kudos as shadow treasurer.
29 Andos “The Gods hate Hubris”.
Is that the title of your upcoming political play/novel/Sci Fi novel…?
Nelson is a very big mistake – I was pissed as all hell when the Libs chose him.
Barring freak events, Nelsons popularity will shift very little in the coming months – he is simply not the engaging type. Reminds me of Simon Crean – a competent leader, but doesn’t have the charisma of one.
I give it 12-18 months before a challenge, which Turnball will in all likelihood win. That gives him a year to get himself sorted, before 2010. The thing that really irks me about this though is that Rudd can now call a DD early 2009, and the Libs are either stuck with Nelson or Turnball, whom has only been leader for about a month or two.
This poll doesn’t surprise me in the slightest – except for the fact Abbott is at 9%.
Having said that, it could be a blessing in disguise – Nelson deals with the post-election fallout, and the baggage that comes with it, before Turnball takes it with a clean slate. Seems unlikely though. It is such a shame, because the government is already bloody cocky and arrogant, a competent opposition could make the 2010 election one to remember. Gah,
35 Max: In what way have you seen the gov’t as cocky and arrogant?
Don’t know about bloody cocky and arrogant, Max. What’s the guy got to do to please you (joke).
35: Yairs mate, Rudd’s acting like he’s won the election already …
They’re cocky and arrogant after 18 hours? It’s going to be a long three years for you, Max. Or will your Arrogance Tolerance levels return to their normal levels of the last decade?
Re this making up the mind in the last week bizzo, I’d like Newspoll to ask that lot if they’ve ever in their life voted for the party other than the one they finally opt for.
I reckon it’s a lot like any cricketer’s take on winning the toss in a one day match. They say ‘90% of the time you bat first, the other 10% of the time you think about it for a bit, and then you bat first.”
‘Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’
Still looks like a typo, doesn’t it? Not for long.
‘Cocky and arrogant’???
Max, just what is it that you’re smokin’ boy, and can I have some.
Oh I see, they were sworn in yesterday, and accepted the people’s verdict. Bloody arrogant if you ask me. And Swan appeared on The 7.30 Report as the Treasurer of Australia. What a hide the man has.
Next the full of herself Penny Wong and that show pony Peter Garrett will be representing Australia at Bali. I mean, how dare they. Such arrogance will surely lead to hubris and certain defeat at the next election.
1. Ratifying Kyoto within, what, 30 minutes of becoming PM? Without a cabinet meeting? Mandate is one thing, but getting Cabinet to approve would have been slightly more responsible.
2. Super-portfolio Ms Gillard. How much power does she need? I agree that merging positions can be effective, also agree that education is related to work, but she has undertaken two of the heaviest jobs for herself. Surely it would be better to give one to somebody you work well with? One portfolio means you can direct ALL your energies into it, we are poorer for the combined position.
3. Labor prattling along telling the Coalition it has to approve its IR legislation. Bullshit. It got its house of review back, now it wants to make it redundant?
4. Perhaps not a sign of arrogance, but the fact Combet and Mckew got secretary positions is a joke. Sure there’s talent there, but what happened to his ‘I think everybody should get parliamentary experience before getting a more senior position’ stance? How effective can they be as secretaries without knowing how it works?
This is in week one. Already I’m annoyed. Could make for a fun few years !
The arrogance of Rudd, being sworn in and all that.
What presumption, what vanity.
And Howard still not wanting to let go. Maybe it’s all a dream.
Anyway is Howard still alive?
Ahem, Bali has already started
Sounds sweet Crispy.
My 91 yr old father told me on the weekend that he has never trusted Howard since the shafting days of the Peacock/Howard tussle, and he is a rusted on Liberal voter. As a veteran the Iraq debacle just cemented his view.
Max at 41
If that is all you are annoyed at, then I suggest you have far lower standards for the Liberals then you have for the ALP.
Max, I can see some arrogance staring me in the face. But anyway, I guess its good to see Liberals getting back on that horse. It must have been a hard fall.
I’m sure that others will know more details – but since Kyoto was official policy I assume that means it has been passed by ALP NATIONAL CONFERNCE.
Hence, as soon as any member of the ALP had the chance to do it, they should. As Mr Rudd did.
THere’s no need for Cabinet to discuss it – what new information is there? All the facts have been known for a long (almost criminally long, given the cricumstances) time.
Oh – and I am aware that Rudd has recently stated that Austrlia is unlikely, on curretn projections, to meet the targets. That only reinforces the fact that Howard and Costello were lying.
Max, on the brilliant Ms Gillard – “we are poorer for the combined position” – We being??? The LNP?
Meanwhile the Qld Libs meet this morning to sort out their little problem.
Only thing certain is Bruce Flegg will not be the winner. Whether anyone else can win is another matter. Could be a long meeting.
Pancho,
Yep, it was a hard fall. Was it deserved? Yes. The party didn’t adapt, didn’t renew, and it paid the price. Shall we now sit in a corner for three years crying about it, or move on in the best interests of everybody?
How long would everybody like us to give Mr Rudd to settle into his new position? If the Libs do their job, then proper scrutiny will begin day one of the next Parliament, if not before. Of course, this is assuming they do their job…
If you would like arrogance, refer yourself to supporters who claim they now have two terms of government to enjoy, if not a decade.
Max: Labor previously had a Dept of Education, Employment and Training under one minister. Once IR is put to bed then the synergies will be obvious. In the meantime there are some effective Public servants out there just waiting to give her a hand to implement the policies.
Oh, for the record, I am not a member of any political party and never have been. I have said this before, but feel re-iteration might be necessary here.
Max: If you were truly impartial, here is a short list of issues I consider worthy of annoyance:
1. Regional Road Rorts Scheme
2. AWB scandal
3. illegal Iraq war
4. Failure to uphold human rights
5. Failure to ratify Kyoto
Come back when you have something of equivalence.
re 51
I agree – assuming the workchoices repeal is passed as soon as the new Senators arrive (if not before) then IR will be almost a dead issue.
If they do the new policy right there will be no need to do anything much from July 2 2008 until the next election.
Petrie-person, the poll DID narrow in the last days as the floaters made up their minds. That’s why Labor’s seat-tally will be 84 or so and not the 90-plus people here were confidently predicting. Please remember this in 2010 – there is always a narrowing at the very end.
The alleged 1% of self-described Labor voters who prefer Nelson to Rudd can only be our very own LTEP. Well done on getting polled.
For the record I don’t particularly like Rudd either, but I’m willing to give him a chance.
The issues you raise are of very little consequence.
Surely you can come up with more valid grounds of criticism.
Max@50, all fair arguments. However Liberals now wishing to apply ‘proper scrutiny’ will be seen dubiously given their lack of courage in confronting some of Howard’s more outrageous behaviour while in government, particularly without the check of a Senate.
And history rather than hubris would suggest that it will be very difficult for the Liberals to win in 2010.
Max: not being a member of a political party while spending so much of your time complaining about politics just makes you lazy. If there are so many problems with the new Government already, why don’t you join an opposition party and work hard to depose them instead of just whining about it?
Or even better, why not join the ALP and contribute on reforming it from the inside so that we can have the most competent Government possible. Do you just want to criticise, or do you want to do something about it?
To be fair Asanque, I’d say that the superministry scandal is at least equivalent to AWB.
And ratifying Kyoto within 30 minutes of becoming PM will be seen by future historians (such as Gerard Henderson) as at least on a par with the illegal invasion of a soveriegn country.
And no I don’t feel that it’s arrogant of the opposition to deny that Labour have a mandate re workchoices. For heaven’s sake it was barely mentioned during the election campaign.
Asanque, as I have stated before I have a lot of respect for you as you are one of the few who look at issues from both sides of view. So let me address your points
My argument here though is that Rudd should not ‘be given a chance’ perse. Yes he should be given the opportunity to implement his mandate – but not simply as he sees fit. Doesn’t the adage got that a government is only as good as it’s opposition?
The points you raised in 53 we disagree on in some respect, which is go. But much of it is of Howards doing. For good or bad – and I understand 95% of people here thing good – he is gone now, and the Liberal Party is marking out it’s new ground. Saying that ‘Rudd is doing ok because hey, he didn’t go to Iraq’ is not good enough for me. Or most people for that matter. And I understand that’s not what you are saying, but you get my point?
Powerful criticism obviously can’t come about until Rudd has had time to do what he wants, and show us how he wants to do it. That shouldn’t mean he gets a free ride until then.
Btw, I don’t claim to be impartial. Believe it or not, I am not a right wing fascist either, I apparently ’socially left.’ Go figure…
The points you raised in 53 we disagree on in some respect, which is going to happen, as we sit on different sides of the fence on many issues.
***
Sorry, forgot to finish that sentence. Multitasking isn’t my thing.
Rates Analyst @ 47, Regarding Kyoto
Yes, Rudd did just mention that we are likely to overshoot our target by 1%. However, frankly, if it was Wayne Swan doing the maths, I’m not sure I’d be trusting his calculations.
This was in the Australian :
One question, why the hell would you legally bind Australia to a commitment he says we cant keep, and will be heavily sanctioned and penalised for the breach…. How is that in the “best interests of the country”
On top of that, Wayne Swan has already flagged over $10 Billion dollars in CUTS to currently implemented government programs, and specifically said when asked if there will be more that he
(7:30 Report)
If ratifying Kyoto at great penalty to Australia, and cutting more than $10 billion dollars in current government programs and funding as you said “18 hours after being sworn in” isn’t arrogant (and indeed reckless) I dont know what is.
Max, its been widely commented on that Gillards workload is not overly burdensome. IR once its ‘fixed’ is normally a lower profile ministry. It was only workchoices that made it the problem child it is. Commentators more experienced than me expect that once IR is bedded down she’ll have plenty of time to devote to education.
60 Max From my reading of the winds it seems that the most vehement crictisms of Rudd will come from the so called “left”.
He seems too cautious and bureaucratic in his manageralism approach. The nation also needs a leader who can instill some excitement into the polticial process. A Keating with the common touch maybe…
Matthew Flinders. How is running away from an obvious problem in the “best interest of the country”? If the last government hadn’t stuck its hea din the sand we wouldn’t be in this predicament. We need to take our medicine, and get on with the job. More ostrich behaviour just isn’t good enough.
Andos, I thank you for that label.
‘not being a member of a political party while spending so much of your time complaining about politics just makes you lazy’
I have barely discussed politics on this site for the past two months. Why? Because people were rarely discussing issues, and much of it was taken up by gloating over the various polls (three per week) which was oh so boring.
However, during the last week of the campaign, a few hundred people would have stopped by to comment on PB. Maybe more. So many of the newcomers dropped in one liners equivalent ‘Howard is evil/arrogant/full of shit etc etc. I wonder if they all joined political parties? At least I am trying to address various things, rather then ‘Rudd is shit because he likes unions.’
My post has been taken entirely out of context. My FIRST POST, at 35, was 80% about the Liberal leadership. Everything else stemmed in from a line at the end, and since then I’ve tried to back it up – one of those losing battle things.
I have not joined the Liberal Party because in recent times I have not been impressed with them. Government should be about planning for the future, investing in it, something which I think they failed to do in recent years. I won’t join a Party whom I don’t believe in. We are all different. Now if this makes me lazy, then hey, guilty as charged – along with the majority of people about the place.
Cheers
62 Matthew see the Peter Martin link earlier whereby the Kyoto lies are exposed. In other words Labor was going to ratifying Kyoto on the basis of previous Gov’t advice that we would meet the targets.
MF. So cutting fat from inefficienct government programs is now reckless? Oh boy, you guys are really taking this defeat hard aren’t you. Are the sedatives playing havoc still?
ed@bennelong. Tell me how is it that Bennelong
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-105.htm
is reported as having issued 5,159 postal votes yet the AEC has recorded receiving back 5,979 postal votes.
The same situation in Swan
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-247.htm
where the AEC has recorded issuing 2,489 postal votes and received back 3,744.. as of 11:00AM today…
has John been printing his own ballot papers??? or was it Max…
middle man,
That drives me nuts. IR needs to be ‘fixed’ then never touched upon again? Nothing should ever be left alone, things need to be looked upon, examined, improved. She is the “Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations” – surely that’s something which shouldn’t just be a six month job.
Further, I would suggest that the new Minster for Education, who is implementing a core element of the Labor mandate, have the first, crucial six months of the term free to work out all the details of the plan, without having to worry about preparing legislation which needs to be approved by three other parties (if not the Libs) come July in order to become law. But that’s me, and my opinion differs to many others.
MelbCity. Beyond my ken I’m sorry. I’e followed the discussions on Possum’s site and here and it doesn’t make sense to me.
Max. I respect that. I guess the proof will be in the eating as they say. It will be something for us all to watch for. It certainly appears to be alot, but whether it proves to be too much will be shown in time.
I trust Swan’s calculations more than the Australian’s reporting.
Maybe becuase the best interests of the country involve not being an international pariah. Maybe becuase the best interests of the country include a functioning world response to climate change.
Did you hear the applause – yes applause – for Austrlia’s actions at the Bali conference? When was the last time Austrlia was applauded like that for doing the right thing? Maybe doing the right thing will cost us. Maybe it’s still the right thing though.
Also – having read the full interview here it seems clear that hte only penalty for releasing too much in this period is to have to “pay it back” in the next period by releasing the equivlaent amount, plus a 30% penalty less in the next period.
So the “harsh penalties” seem pretty fiar to me.
There might be a philosophical distinction here. I believe that we do NOT have the right to pollute at will, just becuase we can.
And Max i’m not suggesting its just a fix and dont touch again scenario. Just mentioning that more experienced people than me (which isn’t hard to be) have suggested it can be managed.
If the government is only as good as its opposition, then heaven help us. I’d hope it could be better, which is why I can’t see Nelson and Bishop lasting long without control of the purse-strings to support their arrogant and incompetent policies. In education, for example, Nelson connived at the flagpole and intelligent design things, as well as letting that Renaissance man Paddy McGuinness review all the ARC grants. For her part, Bishop cooked up the ultimate divide and rule strategy, forcing the universities to pour millions and millions of dollars into an ill-designed ‘Research Quality Framework’ process whose entire purpose was to pit the universities against one another and force them to play dancing bears at the minister’s behest. Labor has already called a halt to that.
Re Newspoll, notice that hating the other side was a much stronger motivation for Coalition voters than ALP supporters (40 vs 32 per cent)? I reckon that’s the 40 per cent of Liberal/National voters the ALP could win over if they do a competent job. Howard was fighting the last Labor government, not this one.
I think we can agree on that middle man, which makes the next six months very interesting. I for one am looking forward to it, even if I don’t agree with some of the policy changes. Will be good to watch.
Max: that was entirely the point that I was making.
You say: “I have not joined the Liberal Party because in recent times I have not been impressed with them.”
It seems that you are happier standing on the sidelines hurling criticism than getting your hands dirty working to reform the party according to what you believe is in our best interests.
This also goes to your original post at 35. You can wish for a competent opposition all that you want, or you can take part in the process and work to strengthen the party, strengthen the opposition which will in turn (hopefully) strengthen the Government for the betterment of us all.
So yes, that does make you lazy, although I would agree with you that the majority of people are lazy. Witness the 20% who “made up their mind” in the last week of the campaign.
Andos @ 77 but we know people don’t answer that question honestly. I liked Crisy @ 39’s take on that.
The shambolic old scruff Bob Ellis has done a nice piece on Turnbull. It’s a reflection on some of their shared history and is laced with sharp barbs for the mortally wounded Liberal Party:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2107621.htm
…worth a read if you like that sort of thing.
Funny how non-Labor supporters are complaining about Rudd getting on with the job.
There has been such busy inactivity on so many fronts in the govt over the past three years (remember it was only around Feb/March that ministers were putting the denial boot into Al Gore) it’s no wonder they are surprised at a govt actually doing something.
But I guess if Rudd didn’t act he’d be accused of not being serious about his policies – and because he does act, he gets a spray here.
Bit pathetic really.
Don’t know if senility is catching up with me but this morning when I saw the name John Howard in a newspaper article I had to stop and think WHO HE WAS!!!
Did you see the footage of Australia’s delegation being cheered at the Bali Conference?? Did it make you feel a surge of pride?? Haven’t felt that way for many years. It almost brought a tear to my eye. Hey World – Australia’s back!
well said Bryce.
Max. You are spot on that Rudd and his ministers are cocky, arrogant, and over-confident. Precisely like I’ve personally witnessed the following in their first weeks after taking over the power: Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke, and Howard. Then there’s the champ of arrogance, Keating and his “true believers” speech after beating unbeatable Dr. Hewson.
If Team Rudd didn’t have fire in their bellies to change the country for whatever course they believe is better than Howard’s, then they would be just wallowing in humility and complacency. Whether they have the talent and savvy to accomplish better things for the country is a completely different matter, but so far their cocky and arrogant first fortnight is most welcome.
vera@81 – he’s an actor. Came to prominence in ‘Young Einstein’ from memory.
82
Ferny Grover
And how! I’m expecting to enjoy quite a lot of these ‘new paradigm’ moments, but for now, they really are something to savour with a bit of that sweet victory of Nov 24th for extra relish.
Sorry. How could I forget ‘The Club’?
KR I loved the smile that slowly came across the guy announcing the ratification as he realised the import of it. Said mountains.
So Dr Horatio Hankeyblower decides the Party needs a revamp. Who is there with such incisive vision and drive, such a connection to the world and the future, such a commitment to nation building and the values of compassion and justice that the Liberals once championed??? “Of course!” he exclaims – “Ruddock and Robb!!” Horatio was last seen driving his DeLorian back to the future.
Say, Ferny Grover (82), is that footage available on the Web anywhere? I haven’t seen it, but just hearing about that this morning made me very proud.
Andos,
I initially started off this post with a defence – ie look at the other people and what they are saying – but then realised that’s precisely the problem with this country. People look to what others aren’t doing and justify it as a defence. It isn’t on.
Your post was well argued and in truth stopped me in my tracks. I suppose my next line, by default, is ‘what different can one person make?’ Which is true in some respect, but then comes the counter: what if everybody thought like that? Then nothing would change.
Anyway, I don’t have that much else to say, but you’ve given me something to consider.
Thanks to those who I conversed with this morning, has been an interesting chat. Believe it or not, I am not a troll, and didn’t actually come here with the intention of having a crack at Labor, I started off rambling about the Libs. The irony doesn’t escape. Cheers.
Good morning KR (it’s still morning in the Sunshine State). Truth is – it actually DID bring a tear of pride to my eye. I got a little choked up for a moment there. And yes – here’s to a lot more of those moments as Australia strides into the daylight that’s been kept from it for so long. It’s good to be back and to be able to look the world in the eye again.
On the narrowing… I have spoken to people on both sides and the internal polling confirmed this… there was a genuine narrowing…. it was 54.5-ish a week out…. and looked like 52.5 mid week…. but that was as close as it got.
When Galaxy came out with 52-48, Lib insiders confirmed they had a similar number, for example.
I agree that many of those who ‘make up their mind’ late don’t actually change their view from what it was before….. but some are genuinely undecided previously, and so in that sense do ‘make up their mind’ at the end
Back in 1972 a wonderful American cartoonist named Ron Cobb was working in Australia. Here’s a link to 3 of his cartoons from that year. The third one could have been drawn yesterday following the Bali ovation.
http://www.roncobbdesigns.com/The_Digger_Melbourne_Australia.211.0.html
FG says
“Did you see the footage of Australia’s delegation being cheered at the Bali Conference?? Did it make you feel a surge of pride??”
Indeed, I also felt humbled that our nation’s decent into darkness has been so quickly forgiven.
92
Ferny Grover
Isn’t it great! We can actually be proud of our own county again.
But oh no, those ’symbolic’ things don’t matter, oh no, not one bit. Sheesh, how did Howard ever get away with it for so long?
The future: Bring it on!
Andos, I haven’t seen the footage online. It was on last night’s news. Perhaps it is on the ABC or Sky webpages?
Respect, Max.
I’m glad that we could have a useful/productive argument/conversation, instead of disgorging a flood of bile as so often happens on a lot of blogs.
Yep, Im proud to be Australian for the first time in years.
Thanks Kruddster!
Adrian #59,
WTF are you on?
You need to get within shouting-distance of reality, or else it will bite you on the backside someday.
Unforunately, Matthew, this blog doesn’t have a ’sarcasm’ tag…
As I’ve said before KR, Kevin may not be the most inspiring speaker, but I’ve a feeling the actions of his government will be enough inspiration for us all.
Albert and Lefty. It’s good to enjoy the sunshine again – and yes, it was humbling to be so warmly received by the world after standing apart for so long.
Mathew Cole. I think he was being sarcastic. well i hope he was.
Yes the sunshine feels good. Thankfully the rest of the world are a patient and forgiving bunch.
Did everyone see the deluge of rain that fell on Melbourne yesterday. I was right in saying that it always rains more under Labor. There have been 16 wet years since 1972 and 13 of those have been under a labor government.
The Gods have forgiven us for our 11 years of sin, cuddeling up to the devil with his promise of money and consumerism at the expense of our souls.
Here’s what I like about Ruddster: He’s sober, a bit of a dull technocrat, but has set the Howard legacy eradication rotor to filt tilt. 0 to 100 in 10 seconds.
I dare say he’s surprised a few cynical timeworn lefties on homelessness too.
Centaur – you’re right. It’s one of those quirky accidents of history that Australia has received more rainfall under federal Labor administrations. It’s a wonder they didn’t use it in their election advertising! I guess they can save it for when Turnbull is opposition leader: “You may think he’s a wet – but under Labor you will always be wetter!”
Forget Howard’s “interest rates will always be lower” lies. Using the same logic the ALP can honestly claim – “Under Labor, rainfall will always be higher!”
Lefty E #106,
And all without breaking his election promises too!
It’s all in the way he does it. Rudd goes about things in such a fashion as to make us proud to go along with it.
Put short – Howard believed (and made us believe) that he could do anything.
Rudd made us want to help him achieve anything, including the Brucifixion of John Howard.
I detested JWH, but that salt in the wound was too much.
Also, with the giant gone, the dwarves are squabbling about the remains of the giant’s belonings. It really is quite sad……:-)
On the narrowing – it was much maligned during the course of the campaign. However, it did seem to occur in the last week – very much against the run of play as well.
With hindsight and a bit of creativity I think it was possible that Howard could have won the election. If the following had happened I think the election would have been very close.
1) The election should have been called to avoid the 7th Nov rate rise.
2) Tony Abbott should have been sent on vacation
3) The pamphlet scam avoided
4) Avoided the post APEC leadership speculation
5) Abandoned most of the wedges. They failed to secure their target seats and weakened the overall coalition vote. They would have been better of without the Haneef and Mersey wedges and the NT intervention should have been on a softer consultative basis.
Had they put all this together, I think it would have been a very close election. Its pure speculation of course – but I’m very happy they botched it.
I think the problem Rudd will have is not public support but Labor support. Rudd claims to be an economic conservative and he all but proved it while working for Goss. The question is will Labor continue to support him if he remains a conservative.
Stephen, I (and I’m sure many of us on the Left) don’t like the term ‘economic conservative’. I’d prefer ‘economically responsible’ but understand that the term conservative was used for politico/marketing purposes. It was all part of the plan to remove all distractions and focus attention squarely on the issues Labor wanted to fight the election – mostly Workchoices and climate change. Rudd’s broader policy agenda is, at this stage, far from ‘conservative’ as his signing of Kyoto, saying sorry to Indigenous Australians and comments on homelessness all testify. He is behaving like a social democrat and is very much in the Labor tradition.
Isn’t amazing not only how quickly Howard and his cronies have become irrelevant, but how comprehensively his legacy is being seen for the worthless charade it always was.
Makes you proud to be Australian at last!
FG. spot on. Labor needs to prove its credentials there so they are free to implement a “non-conservative” (its a horrible way to reference logical policies, but so be it) agenda in areas such as health, climate, indigenous affairs etc.
The most interesting test for what Rudd really believes in…. whether he is a social democrat, or a fiscal conservative or whatever… will be what he does in the face of the inflation pressures….
1) will he deliver Costello’s and in turn his promised tax cuts? Swan has said they will… and is arguing they aren’t inflationary
2) will he deliver deep spending cuts? They say they will – but where will they come from, and how will this sit with the social democrat agenda?
3) if they deliver the tax cuts, how will they ramp up education spending. it was noted by several observers during the campaign that the ‘education revolution’ as currently outlined is a drop in the ocean… even if you agree with the proposals so far outlined they increase total education investment by only a tiny fraction. One can only assume the real agenda was to increase education spending dramatically once in government – for instance Labor has criticised Howard govt under investment in tertiary education for some time now, but promised nothing in campaign in this regard….
the difficulty now is will Rudd deliver on this spending? and can he deliver on this spending while delivering the tax cuts?
interesting test for Rudd.
another point that many have overlooked is that the Coalition’s decision to put the big long term tax plan on the agenda during the campaign forced Rudd’s hand in a way that allows the Coalition to govern from Opposition. Rudd had to copy the policy or leave himself open… now in govt he either has to walk away from it (which will hurt him politically) or deliver it, in which case the Coalition has is in this key area still governing…. their policy will be implemented for several years to come.
Andos – the footage of the applause in Bali is here: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22865700-601,00.html
Ferny Grover @ 112
No I think the term economic conservative is the correct one, not that this may not also be responsible. Don’t expect any handouts while Rudd is around.
whats the thinking on final TPP? down to 52.87 now…. my thought a few days ago was 52.8? may go lower
Well put 10pse. The election strategy of focussing attention on the things mentioned above foced Labor to virtually adopt the Coalition’s economic policy – as Labor didn’t want to fight the election on this issue. Now in government this presents some real headaches. I have no doubt that Labor is intent on delivering the tax cuts. I’m also sure they are keen to deliver on broader social goals while also putting ‘downward pressure’ on inflation and interest rates. The latter requires a long term strategy. The challenge is in the short to medium terms. How will Labor deliver its promises and avoid putting rocket fuel on interest rates? It will make for interesting times.
Nelson has been leader for what less than a week and yet Newspoll come out with a leadership poll give me a break! Also why in the heck didn’t they make it a choice between Nelson and Turnbull, Nelson would have picked up Abbotts supporters and more than half of Bishops supporters which would of put him well into the 30s.
I blame the media for this they all talked up Turnbull and didnt say a word about Nelson. I bet Paul Kelly is happy the Australian is paying the Liberals back for choosing Nelson instead of his preferred candidate Turnbull.
I wouldn’t take any interest of political polls until after the first sitting of Parliament.
Kyoto is a waste of time we ought to spend more time on the next agreement rather than this symbolic PR stunt of Rudd in ratifying a dead agreement.
FG. I think this is why Swan is so kken to get the ‘best minds’ from Treasury involved in a broad range of policy development. Its a juggling act that is going to need a coordinated approach rather than ministries acting as sole agents. (Yay i avoided using the term ’silo’s’!!!! woohoo!!)
Stephen, the problem is that the term ‘conservative’ has political/philosophical connotations that are distasteful to many on the left. As for handouts, I think modern social democrats have moved beyond Keynesian thinking on that front, while still being committed to a safety net for those that require it.
10pse – I think I’m more optimistic than you on the prospect of finding savings in government expenditure. The old mob had basically lost financial discipline since 2004, and had been chucking money around as a means of shoring up their electoral support. Just canning the Access Card alone gives you savings of $1bn; if (as seems inevitable) the contractors fail to fulfil their terms on the unwanted jets for the RAAF, there’s another $6bn; the rorts from the regional partnerships were blowing $500 million; the Business Council of Australia (hardly a Labor ally) estimates that there are $6bn to be saved by rationalising state/Federal programs. And all that’s before you start putting the ruler over things like government advertising, patronage-based appointments of useless Young Liberals, and wasteful policies designed primarily as window-dressing. Not to mention chucking money at ‘clean’ coal instead of encouraging renewables. And the massive expenditure on defence equipment, a lot of which seems to have been wasted. There was a comment in the Fin Review a while back about defence suggesting that their main problem was that they had so much money from the Feds that they literally didn’t know how to spend it.
115/119 In a somewhat broader context, Labor needs to address the inequalities that stemmed from the brutal implementation of ‘globalisation’ and competition policy.
If this next cycle of inflation can be addressed quickly then the resources boom will continue to help the redirection of money to the social democratic agenda.
There is plenty of money eg future fund is a farce. But some of the biggest problems are middle class welfare allowing for ideological rundowns in public schooling and hospitals and investment policy being out of whack eg negative gearing on housing.
http://www.smh.com.au/cartoons/index.html
Dr Horatio Hornet gloved up for a reading of the entrails. But whose?
Glen @ 120 – the trouble is that we weren’t going to be able to participate in the negotiations on the next treaty unless we ratified the existing one, so the argument agin ratification wd have left us out in the cold. Also, Howard’s manoeuvring for special treatment during the negotiations over the old treaty did a lot to cause trouble even before he added insult to injury and refused to sign it.
Glen. Showing good faith to your future negotiating partners is hardly symbolic. Its imperative when trying to achieve good negotiated outcomes. Its a skill singularly lost on the Liberal party. ie NT Intervention, Kyoto, Iraq, Workchoices. Oh and the one time they tried it…. the free trade agreement, they showed blind faith. And what have we gained from it? Access to the US market for our beef and lamb industries, and wheat growers? I think not.
Glen, do you honestly believe that Turnbull is not the medium to long term Liberal leader? If so I think you’re on your own pretty much Australia-wide.
Jenny that’s bull butter and you know it, the USA isnt part of Kyoto and yet they’ll be centre stage in reaching the post-Kyoto agreement.
Jenny we signed it but we didn’t ratify it, we didn’t want to be bound by a Treaty that would force us to do certain things whereas we have met our obligations many countries like Canada who ratified are way behind their targets.
bull butter – the most hilarious turn of phrase since ‘hubris’ and only getting better. And Australia doesn’t quite have the clout of the US yet.
Jenny:
Having previously worked as a management consultant I have little doubt the federal budget could be reduced by 5-10%…$18B – $35B without cutting programs… purely through doing things smarter….
however, i have almost zero confidence that this will happen…. it is more difficult than the easier option of cutting programs… so pollies tend to go for this….
And the types of cuts you suggested all have their difficulties. for example:
Cutting defence spending? that wont be popular with the electorate – so wont happen… too easy to be painted as weak on national security
Federal/state rationalisation – i have no doubt the $6B is there… but getting it is another thing entirely… long, slow, drawn out process…. likely to have major opposition from the states… chances of achieving this are very small.
My guess, Labor wont have the stomach to make deep cuts, so it wont… it will make some easier ‘low hanging fruit’ type cuts up front to create the right impression then pull up stumps
Glen. I’m sorry but the “i’m not doing unless they do it too” argument sounds like my nephews bickering about household chores. It’s time to be a bit bigger than that.
Glen, you’re still fighting yesterday’s battles – an affliction that characterised the Coalition campaign and helped secure their defeat. As a signal to the world that Australia is under new management and is now on board in terms of climate change, the signing of Kyoto was very loud and very clear. It also made me proud – which is a jolly good reason for a policy position.
Glen: The Kyoto Protocol is in no way a “dead agreement”, as you put it. A huge part of it is encouraging the investment in technologies to reduce the greenhouse gas output of our economies, including carbon trading schemes, and it is still in force for another 4, long years.
Without this increased investment, a ’solid base’ if you will, there would be no way that a future agreement, to take effect in 2012, would be able to produce the drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions that are required to avoid the worst outcomes of human induced global warming.
It seems that your objection to this so-called “waste of time” is simply a dogmatic belief reinforced by the culture of global warming denial in conservative/right-wing institutions (like the Liberal Party). Maybe you should ask the delegates at the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali whom spontaneously applauded when it was announced that we would be immediately ratifying the Kyoto protocol if they thought it was all a wast of time?
I’m sure that the ALP just paid them all to do that so that the “PR stunt” would be that much more effective.
Get some perspective.
Turnbull hasn’t the experience Pancho IMHO atm, he’s been in Parliament for what 3+ years and been a Minister for a few years, that’s not enough in my books.
Give him another 3-5 years and we’ll see, but if he continues to want to ’say sorry’, bring on a republic, dump all of workchoices including unfair dismissals then i will find it hard to support him with any vigor. He’s too left wing for my liking. He needs to ‘dry out’ a bit more for me. The trouble is Malcolm is Malcolm and like the media he wont let Nelson have a fair go at the leadership.
Also Turnbull is the last thing we need now he’s too divisive, we need harmony not more factionalism and destabalisation in the Party. Turnbull would through out the Howard era including the kitchen sink and he’d be perfectly happy to lump a lot of crap on the Howard era to benefit him personally.
Also Turnbull isnt a team player whereas Nelson is, we can’t afford a one man band atm IMHO.
Can anyone name a senior labor state politician in the last 10-12 years who was not fiscally conservative?
If you’re looking for the catchword for Rudd’s approach to election promises and economic management, here it is… pragmatism. The new Federal Government has a cast-iron template for successful government hammered out over a decade by Bob Carr in NSW, Peter Beattie in Qld and Steve Bracks in Voctoria.
Spending will be screwed down across social and defence programs aside from those issues specifically promised. The dreaded efficiency dividend will bite and bite some more and dividends will be squeezed out of public trading entities, if there’s any left. The tax cuts will be delivered but their impact will be dwarfed compared to the growing cash tax receipts in a higher inflation environment. I won’t be waiting for any mad rush to social justice, maybe a gentle turning of the tide.
Meet the new boss… same as the old boss!
Re my 133 post, I meant ratifying rather than signing – both of which are now done
126/129
Australia was never going to be left out of the next negotiations whether we ratified Kyoto or not. Australia is the link between the developed and developing world. We have the economy of a developed country and the industry of a developing one. The world looks to us as the broker between the two and on an issue like this they need us.
10pse – I agree that superficial cuts are more saleable than more thoroughgoing attempts to do things smarter, but the way I read it, Labor has no real option but to go beyond the low-hanging fruit. That was the import of Costello’s blasted tax cuts, and the main casualty looks as if it was Labor’s agenda for the universities. I’m sure they had to shelve their plans for proper reform there because the tax cuts left them no room to move.
It’s interesting that Combet has been given the job of defence support, and I suspect he will find a way of selling rationalisation in that area to the electorate. A few well-placed media releases about the scandals surrounding defence spending, perhaps?
135 You prescription of what Tunrbull would do sounds to me exaclty what is needed. Is the Liberal party now a nanny state. Here’s my hanky for harmony day.
Damien J @ 136
Goss with Rudd as his chief of staff (maybe more than 12 years ago)
Beattie with Mackenroth as treasurer
I agree Jenny. I think Labor will go well beyond the easy cuts. Rudd’s personality lends itself to this as well. He will want efficiency with a capital E and I dare say he will get it. I also haven’t given up entirely on universities. Labor has a long standing tradition of supporting tertiary education and I’m hopeful of some positive steps in this direction under Rudd, albeit more muted due to the tax cut monster Labor has adopted.
Damien J,
agree with you on the pragmatism… but dont kid yourself state labor has been economically conservative…. they are all in deep debt…as we were told repeatedly $80B in total amongst them over forward estimates.
and btw, this works at state level because state opposition is even harder than federal opposition, so you get away with murder, but more importantly, it works because when you f**k everything up, people dont blame you they blame federal government (eg. hospitals, schools – both of which are state responsibilities).
the same formula does not work federally.
also, rudd’s ‘buck stops with me’ comment…. will come back to haunt him… 3 years from now when the health system is no better, and in all likelihood worse….
so i think rudd has one thing going for him and one thing alone, all australian governments, even when they balls it up, tend to get two cracks….
Glen, stop saying IMHO.
Glen, you are probably right that some of Horatio’s support would be split with Bishop and Abbott. But a better opposition leader rating “well into the 30’s” is hardly encouraging.
I expect its best for the Liberals not to look at any polls for the next few months.
I fear you are correct Albert.
Is that Victorian senate seat still up for grabs?
Are the democrats going to merge with the Greens?
Stephen, Remember, Rudd was there 16 years ago. Not in the same period. Despite Beattie and Macenroth, the pattern was really established by Carr and Egan in NSW. Budget surpluses in 10 out of 11 years, achieved by hook or by crook. Simply throw as many loss making initiatives off-budget as you can and accrue any income to the current year where possible. Long term results can be addressed later and there are splendid short term political results. The pattern has been adopted across most states now. I think we’ll find a reallocation of resources across portfolios. There’s plenty to play with in areas that are not the incoming government’s priorities. Spending can therefore be seen to be substantial but with less of a net impact in terms of budget outcomes and inflation.
I note that 27% of coalition voters prefer Rudd as PM and 38% are undecided.
Is this the emergence of a “soft” coalition vote
The Democrats have no intention of merging with the Greens. Many of their membership see large areas of policy conflict with the Greens and have no desire to join, or see Democrat assets go to support, the Greens
I hope George sues her and them for every ill-gotten dime they’ve got. I also hope (and in fact expect) Chris Mitchell will be sacked over Christmas while no-one’s watching. He has absolutely ruined a once tolerably good newspaper.
Why would the Greens want to merge with a corpse?
146,Hope you recover soon,I would suspect she is stalking you.
10pse @ 143 The debt of state labor governments is a product of pragmatic fiscally conservatism, not evidence of the contrary. There is no substance to the belief that fiscal conservatives do not finance government activities against future years. In fact, the Howard Government, despite its rhetoric about paying back debt maintained debt of about $60 billion across the life of the Government. That’s in adition to the unfunded public sector superannuation.
Adam, there would be some advantage for the Greens in an expanded membership and asset base – but it’s not going to happen. The Democrats are talking up a revival in 2010 – but it’s not going to happen either.
Ferny Grover – do the Dems still have any assets?
They have Sandra Krank – not much of an asset.
FG how many members do the Democrats have?
I’d also suggest their asset base is going to be depleted from now on in.
IMHO, Nelson will probably wait till Thursday just to be sure Dutman has got over the line in Dickson.
Jenny – 3 members, a dog (the mascot and chief comforter) a photocopier and a mobile phone that noone calls. They would have accumulated more but they couldn’t afford the GST.
Glen, now you’re just looking for excuses to use ‘the Dutman’.
Well he is assured a portfolio if he wins his seat and he’s the only reason Lord Nelson will wait till thursday to release his shadow ministry.
I was once in the Dutman’s electorate but as soon as he moved in the AEC moved my house into Arch Bevis’ Brisbane electorate to shore up the numbers and keep me happy. So now I can boo Dutton from afar.
Glen, I suspect Lord Horatio Hankeyblower is having to do lots of consultation to try and keep everyone smiling before he can release his front bench. Dutton is the least of his worries.
FG he’ll only have about 53 members to choose from with about 10 of the old guard not wanting a job on the front bench, it shouldn’t be too hard.
The Qld Libs seem to be taking a long time to sort out the leadership.
Adam @155,
So they can raise a zombie army of course, and take over Australia. The coalition has been succesful at this for years..Andrew Robb, Philip Ruddock etc. If they’re not zombies I’ll eat my hat.
Glen, many of the old guard will still want a very loud say in the makeup of the front bench. Many phonecalls to Downer, Costello and Abbott will be necessary to gain the necessary approvals.
Comments from “Caroline Wilson” and “George Newhouse” (why Caroline Wilson?) have been deleted. We don’t do funny here.
Centaur I think Philip Ruddock looks like a vampire but that’s just me.
Well FG Nelson should tell em to f off like Kevin Reynolds.
But the trouble is Nelson owes Abbott and Bishop so there supporters could get places at the table, like Heff and Michael Keenan.
Off topic, I was just looking at the Leichhardt result and noticed that one of the independents got just 127 votes.
Does anyone know which lower house candidate received the lowest number of first preference votes?
Peter Lindsay looks safe in Herbert with 50.17% of the vote with 92% counted.
Glen, I suspect Nelson owes lots of people – hence the delay in announcing his front bench
It’s a bad sign for Horatio that he has to wait for the election results; shadow ministers in marginals will need to watch their backs. If you look at the pendulum, the coalition has been left with a lot of seats that take a lot of defending.
Has anyone found a properly updated pendulum anywhere? Both Adam’s site and Antony’s are still showing the old ones.
Swan is down to 34 votes difference. How many more votes are there to count. Is a recount likely?
Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Minister for Posturing: Dr Brendan Nelson
Deputy Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Minister for Discipline: Julie Bishop
Leader of the Nationals and Shadow Minister for Ports and Rorts: Warren Truss
Deputy Leader of the Nationals and Shadow Minister for Pissups: Nigel Scull-it-down
Shadow Treasurer, Shadow Minister for Rich People, and Next Leader: Malcolm Turnbull
Shadow Minister for Branch-stacking and Leader-after-that: Alex Hawke
Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs: Ross Lightfoot
Shadow Minister for Defence and Batty Old Ladies: Bronwyn Bishop
Shadow Minister for Private School Funding: Sophie Mirabopoulos
Shadow Minister for Personal Hygiene and Proper Dress: Christopher Maurice Pyne
Shadow Minister for Indigenous Affairs and Insulting People: Bill Heffernan
Shadow Minister for Sheep, Peasant Affairs and Stupidity: Peter McGauran
Shadow Minister for Dirt and Vilification: Tony Abbott
Shadow Minister for Appearing Progressive when Necessary: Marise Payne
Shadow Minister for Things We Don’t Care About: Judi Moylan
Shadow Minister for Everything Else: Danna Vale
According to Steve Irons the Liberal candidate he said that the misplacement of bundles of votes happened in 2004 too, what happened was around 96 votes were in the wrong pile and they mostly were for Wilkie but postals and pre-polled votes still favour Irons. It’s gonna be tough for either candidate to win, most likely this will be the most marginal seat in Australia. Still with 89% counted its anybody’s guess as to who can win it from here.
Id say if its below 100 they’ll have a recount.
Albert, yes there will be a mandatory recount
Ahem
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007/pendulum2007.txt
172 – A CEC candidate in Gilmore only got 48 votes.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-120.htm
He obviously ran a strong postal vote and pre poll campaign as he picked up 11 of his votes there.
Hi, Adam – sorry about that; I followed the link from the top of your page. Hmm. Maybe my cache was getting in the way. Thanks very much for providing the updated one.
OK, so that leaves the coalition with upwards of 20 seats on margins of less than 4%, which are going to be interesting to defend without the spoils of office.
Jenny but if just a third of those who voted for Rudd voted Liberal in 2010 those margins would blow out to a fairly safe level. Labor are starting at a very high base of vote in all of those seats, i would be very surprise if we didn’t win back at least half of those who voted against us in 2007.
Glen @ 183, your argument presupposes a ‘natural constituency’ that will ‘naturally’ return to the Coalition. There is no such thing. The Coalition will need to gain the confidence of the electorate for there to be a swing back to them. In other words a swing to the Opposition will have to be earned. It is equally, or more, likely that the swing will be to the Government – provided it proves to be competent. Incumbency is a powerful thing.
177
Adam
You’ve only mentioned the shadow (of their former selves) ministers, but what about the “Mentors”, like the fop of the crop, the wonderous Malvolio of Mayo? And the inimitable smirk, Bracket Creep, surely they should be acknowledged with some new roles too?
On what do you base that view, Glen?
Glen – There’s usually a swing to the incumbents at the end of the first term unless they royally stuff up. I agree that some of the seats that went Labor for the first time look highly unusual, but in many cases they’ve changed complexion in the interim.
Simon Jackman has some interesting maps on his blog showing the geographical distribution of support for the parties (they took a long time to download, though – not for the faint-hearted!)
Here’s the link: http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?cat=8
Irons ahead by 222 in Swan
Once we set up a Royal Commission into the AWB affair, Lord Downer will be very busy keeping himself out of Spandau.
So long as Dolly keeps himself out of spandex!
So long Wilkie LOL!
Caroline O apologises to George Newhouse, presumably in exchange for him not pursuing assualt changes.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22865525-5013948,00.html
Ferny Grover @ 184. Your argument is unpersuasive. There are no ‘natural constituencies’ for either side of politics. Glen is right to point out that at the next election, the Australian Labor Party will be coming off a high base 2PP vote. I agree that Mr. Rudd looks promising at the moment but no one really knows how competent his government will be. The key battlegounds at the next election will be NSW and Queensland where there are long serving and (in the case of NSW) incompetent state ALP governments. This is unlikely to assist Mr. Rudd as he seeks a second term. Labor barrackers cannot expect that the Liberal Party in each of those states will be perpetually hapless, helpless and hopeless. In your (understandable) pleasure at the election outcome, a little less of your ‘rose coloured’ assessments of the Australian Labor Party’s electoral prospects would be welcome.
#193 No natural constituencies? What are you talking about?
Life after Politics? What possible career choices would be open to ex Govt Ministers?
Abbott – Specialist Cardinal Overcoat Salesman
Downer – Governor General of the Galapagos Islands
Howard – Aboriginal Cultural Advisor to the Tobacco Industry
Costello – Wedding Consultant specialising in Bridesmaids and Spinsters
Andrews – Supplier of damaged replicas of the Titanic and the Hindenburg
Brough – Shampoo Salesman
Bishop – Hyptnotist
Ruddock – Undertaker
Hockey – Specialist Echoist Ventriloquist
Turnbull – Hot Air Packaging Consultant
David Charles @ 301 – if you have a look at Simon Jackman’s maps, they suggest that there certainly is a natural constituency in the cities at least, and it’s largely based on class. As Jackman puts it:
“The maps centered on larger urban areas are fascinating (well, to me at least), highlighting the way that income and wealth remain the bedrock of the Australian party system.”
Now now Charles, there is nothing rose coloured about my views. To be fair I did not say that my views on ‘natural constituencies’ only applied to the Coalition. I believe that election wins have to be earned these days and that a reliance by either side on a ‘natural’ swing back to themselves without having earned it is indeed rose coloured thinking. A competent Rudd government will sway many votes in Labor’s favour whereas a stumbling or dishonest government effort if pitted against a sound Opposition will sway votes away from Labor. Let’s be clear – if Rudd performs well he will keep the seats won in Qld and may even add to them. If the Coalition wants to believe it needs to do nothing except wish for a ‘natural’ swing back to them in 2010, then I’m sure Labor will be happy with that strategy.
oops – meant 193
Disappointing to see Turnbull lose to Nelson, but after some more thought, it makes sense to let Turnbull gain some more parliamentary experience before unleashing him as leader.
Nelson’s media performances have been average at best, so he’s got a lot of work to do.
Oh for heaven’s sake! The elections was a week ago! And we are back on the polls? Give it a break will ya?
Boll (194) I use ‘constituency’ in the sense of a bloc of votes sufficient for one or other side of politics to win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives. FG (197) I note the clarification and thank you for your response.
One more thing David Charles, I really don’t put much credence in the view that incompetent state administrations make an impact at the federal level. If incompotent parties brought down their federal counterparts noone would have voted for the Howard Coalition. I know that Wayne Goss blamed the poor standing of the Keating Government for his own government’s demise, but this was just blame shifting. Never before has a government pissed the good will of the electorate up against the wall with such merry abandon as did Mr Goss. If blaming Keating helps him sleep at night, more power to him. Voters have historically made the distinction between state and federal politics and voted accordingly. The NSW government may be badly managed (the same could be said for Qld) but they keep getting returned comfortably because the opposition is unconvincing. The age of mass media has seen the demise of natural constituencies and, as I say, election victories now need to be earned.
Expert comment on the Qld Libs currently working on their little problem:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/04/2109154.htm?section=justin
Still no word on the Qld Lib leadership. What are they up to? Arm wrestling? Pistols at 40 paces? Trial by ordeal?
The QLD Liberals are not being helpful at this point in time. I wonder whether they want to ever be in government with such obnoxious behaviour.
FG (202) says: “Never before has a government pissed the good will of the electorate up against the wall with such merry abandon as did Mr. Goss”.
Please elucidate. Your response could be significant given who was chief of staff for Mr. Goss.
Maybe each state should organise a movement of independents to offer the people an option to the state Labor governments?
Or maybe we should get rid of state governments altogether in favour of regional councils?
Oh well, disfranchised again at the next state election and so much for democracy….
GP, I suspect the Qld Libs will only recover if they can persuade Santo to leave the country.
Goss lost the 1995 election because the Greens preferenced the Nats and Libs.
LOL!
Scaper – there is a loose coalition of independents; Tony Windsor from New England and the late lamented Peter Andren set it up some time ago. It’s rural, though, so probably wouldn’t answer your purposes, though it’s certainly given the Nats a bit of a hurry-up.
Laming just 130 behind and closing in Bowman with 91% counted.
I wondered if you’d pick up on that DC. I’m not sure my response would be significant and it is not clear to what degree Chiefs of Staff contribute to a government’s rise and fall. Goss came to power after 32 years of uninterrupted National Party rule. Corruption was endemic in government and in the police. Goss won in a landslide amidst enormous public support and goodwill. Yet he lasted 5 years and was thrown out (albeit on the casting vote of the independent member for Gladstone who confided that she cast her vote to bring down the Goss government in the confidence motion because “Goss is anti-God”.) All it took was 5 years. Why? The reasons are many. Goss lost the support of the public service (Mr Rudd’s managerial approach may have contributed to that) but more broadly his aloof style lost the support of the general public. His treatment of his own Speaker was indicative of the reasons he was shown the door….but that’s another story.
horatio is channelling the rodent. it’s creepy.
The Liberal lead in Swan is back out to 230, so I think Kim Wilkie is gone, sadly. Flynn is secure for Labor and Robertson almost certainly so. The Libs will probably win Herbert and Dickson. That only leaves Bowman and McEwen is genuinely too close to call.
DC – my response to your previous post is in moderation for some reason. You’ll have to wait to see if you can read it.
All you gambling types could have gotten pretty good odds on Labor winning Dawson but not Herbert. Did anyone do so?
Wilkie ohhh he’s gawwwwwn clean blowed him by Irons.
Laming is looking unlikely but a chance only behind by 130 McEwen looks safer 50.08% ahead with 88% counted but still a few votes left to count anything could happen there.
Adam
I think Labor may just squeak home in Solomon as well.
Still a ways yet to count ruawake in Solomon.
There you go DC – my response has passed moderation – at 213
Mr Jackman’s observation that the last election reverted to a division along income and wealth lines seems well supported.
One thing that confuses me is the conventional wisdom that:
all other things being equal – people with more education tend to vote ALP
all other things being equal – people with more education earn more
all other things being equal – people who earn more tend to vote Liberal
How does that work?
Jenny,
Up here in QLD I believe there is room for another option.
From what I know Bligh is a big improvement on Beattie, but the people deserve a viable alternative or democracy is not served.
I was looking at this idea last year, but have decided that another project is more important.
Maybe I will revisit if that does not get off the ground but honestly, what’s the F****ing use as our grandchildren will be eating rats and cockroaches because of the lack of long term vision on the behalf of ALL the politicians who can only see as far as the next election!!!
Oh well, at least I can hold my head up and at least tried to make a difference to the nation that I love.
scaper…
Ferny – from personal experience posts which include possibly provocative words go into moderation, even from frequent contributors.
I had a post which included the word “J.e.w” put into moderation.
I suspect your (completely legitimate) use of the word “G.o.d” meant your post was moderated.
Any clues as to the list of words William?
Ross Vasta must know something that we don’t.
A look at the booth results in Bonner in all Wynnum booths show his vote as follows:
Wynnum – 41.38%
Wynnum Central – 34.79%
Wynnum North – 37.12%
Wynnum North High – 32.81%
Wynnum West – 35.06%
Albert F,
I won’t go into the statistical details but that is not actually a contradiction.
Correlation is weird like that.
Thanks Analyst – I was feeling a bit self conscious there
There are two types of wealthy people. Wealthy business people still vote very solidly Liberal, particularly if they are “new money” rather than “old money.” Wealthy professional people increasingly vote Labor.
Apparently the Qld Libs have elected Eric Idle as leader. At least the laughs will now be intentional.
The point is that education only provides a proportion of the explanation of why people earn more.
If there is another category of people who earn lots, but have low education AND tend to vote Liberal more often than the average, then you can get that scenario.
Say (for example) that sports stars tend to be uneducated, well-paid and Liberal.
They simultaneous create the relationship that education relates to Labor and income relates to Liberal.
The point is to remember that correlation shows a relationship – not the full explanation.
FG
Sorry you are re writing history. Goss lost the Koala Seats in Brisbane due to the Greens preferencing the Nats/Libs. over land clearing for roads.
Borbidge lasted two years and was dogged by corruption yet again.
Across the nation, thousands of Australians are turning to the AEC’s website, vtr.aec.gov.au to check the counting progress of the recent election.
But, what confidence can we have in the figures?
Take the micro Socialist Equality Party (SEP) which allegedly, polled 1730 of their state’s tally of 3337 votes at the otherwise uninteresting Cairnlea booth at Deer Park Primary School in the seat of Gorton. A simple check reveals that this polling booth, which recorded a total of 2631 House of Reps votes also recorded a whopping 4393 Senate votes. Obviously, these numbers should be same. The difference is almost totally explained by the extra SEP votes. It looks as if this is a keying error by an AEC official, as the ALP vote was 1728 in the Senate and 1733 in the Reps.
Now look at the vote for the micro Senator On-Line (SOL) party which allegedly clocked up a third of its total Victorian vote in the sleepy Frankston High School booth in Dunkley. Did the SOL party really get 1155, or 27.3% of the Frankston HS vote and poll almost the same as Labor and the Liberals? Again, there were 4313 Senate votes and 3154 House votes, the difference being almost totally explained by the extra SOL party votes.
There are potentially errors across the board. Tony Klein’s Group V Independents vote appears confused with the Greens in Thomastown Meadows in Scullin and he SOL vote at the Eildon booth in McEwen looks inflated by about 250 votes too. Note that all of these errors have been made confusing one party with a larger party that is positioned near it on the tablecloth ballot paper.
So, if I can, in an hour, find four genuine and easily observable errors in the AEC’s numbers with a combined discrepancy of over 3000 votes, why could the AEC not pick up these glaring errors before publishing on their website? When Antony Green’s fantastic senate calculator draws numbers from the raw AEC feeds, it makes an assumption that the AEC numbers are correct.
My question for the AEC is simple. When will these errors be resolved? Australian democracy depends on us punters having faith in an independent and accurate election body like the AEC.
Relevant links are:
Cairnlea Reps: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-13745-46536.htm
Cairnlea Senate: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/SenatePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-13745-46536.htm
Frankston South Reps: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-13745-3600.htm
Frankston South Senate: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/SenatePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-13745-3600.htm
Thomastown Meadows Senate: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/SenatePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-13745-4864.htm
Eildon Senate: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/SenatePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-13745-4320.htm
As the AEC becomes aware of these figures (hopefully) they will change. So have a look at these links quickly to observe their manifest errors.
(apologies for the cross-post to the Vic Senate comments page)
Qld Libs have still not sorted out the leadership after over 5 hours of talks.
It is expected they will continue tomorrow.
I’m glad there’s someone who wastes even more of their time on election statistics than I do.
#203 Bruce Flegg: “It’s only a flesh wound….”
Albert F – re income and education: they don’t always correlate. For example, last time I looked, the lifetime earnings of someone with a PhD were less than those of someone without. (Mainly lost income in early adulthood, but the degree itself isn’t a licence to print money.)
There’s also a big divide within some professions between those with family money, who can buy partnerships, and those without, who can’t and have to spend their lives as employees. In some professions the pay isn’t fabulous, even for highly qualified workers. Employed vets, for example, are lucky to get above $60K, and being employed as a solicitor is hell on wheels. Professional salaries in Australia are a fair way below those elsewhere, which is one reason so many people go overseas.
I know you have all been impatient for prefecture-level figures for the legislative elections in Togo. I have them up now.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/t/togo/
Maybe the Flegg-ites will join the National Party and Santo’s mob will become a party of four.
Adam are the Rally for the Togolese People conservative?
No 208
Sadly, I agree. Santo Santoro has been a menace to the party in QLD.
ruawake – If Nelson can’t get Santoro out of the party, he doesn’t deserve to stay as federal leader.
Speaking of unpleasant people, Michael Kroger seems to be everywhere in the media at the moment. I wonder if he’s considering making a comeback?
In Togo: “Union des Forces du Changement (Union of Forces for Change)” is doing quite well. Are they union bosses? Fanatics? Will they change everything once they’re elected?
Sacre bleu!
Ruawake – I fail to see how I’m rewriting history. It was Goss himself who said he blames Keating at least in part for his loss – and if he only lost the Koala electorates he wouldn’t have lost government. The disallusionment was very widespread.
No 241
Kroger is the only one talking some sense about the need for internal reform in the Liberal Party.
Who here likes Nelson’s laugh?
FG
It was a hung parliament – if the Greens had not got Koalaitis Goss would have won govt. He only needed one more seat.
No 245
I preferred John’s actually.
RA, Adam,
Thanks for the quick isolation of the missing variable.
This suggest (well to me at least) that the long term demographic trend of increased education flows in the ALP’s favour whereas increased wealth could go either way – depending on what its driven by.
Its no wonder the Lib weren’t that keen on public education.
Where’s the ABC Election site gone?!
Jenny – clearly you are underpaid
Found it again. (Please ignore me)
glen @ 245 – speaking of dr brendan, i saw an old photo of him the other day and thought i was looking at ivan milat. he should never, ever again sport a moustache.
But passthepopcorn if he did the bush vote would surely come back, i think the Mo is probably more suited to the 70s and 80s though.
Passthepopcorn, how about that photo of Brendan and him laughing the way he does lol!
I think you will find that almost all of the electorate with high median income in each state voted the Liberals, and a lot of the rural farming seats vote the National/Liberal. I think the conclusion is that most successful business people, whether they are in small business or big company votes Liberal
And prior to this election, the aspiring business people, small business starter, who have large mortgage or borrowing voted Liberal as well, but these mortgage belt seats swung heavily to labor
The Labor seats are generally the blue collar voters areas, ie south west Sydney, they generally do not have as high level of education. The other Labor voters are the late sipping Lefty, ie the well educated, who often have rich parent, or are going to university, who have the means and time to follow their causes. These people are the vocal part of the Labor party, they are the ones who attends all the protest etc.
glen, not sure which pic you’re referring to but must say, i find him a most unattractive man on all levels. i’d hate his laugh.
No 255
Well, if the comparison is with Rudd, I think it’s a lose-lose situation.
Then again, my mother said people voted for Hawke because he was sexy. Bloody hell, some people are blind.
Adam it depends on how many voets are out there. The AEC appears to not know if it has issued x or x + y votes… it is anyone’s guess as their ability to account for all votes issued in very much under a cloud of suspicion.
In Swan they have counted more postals votes then they have recorded being issued. The AEC site reports they have issued 2,489 yet they have recived 3,796 and counted 3,526. If the AEC did not issue the votes then who did? Do they know how many votes were issued? If so then why are they reporting incorrect information?
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-247.htm
The same goes for Bennelong and a number fo other electorates.
hawkey’s brain is as big as a planet. that’s sexy.
Two Candidate Preferred Result by Vote Type Candidate Party Ordinary Absent Provisional Pre-Poll Postal Total
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
IRONS, Steve Liberal 29,208 49.71 2,913 52.61 52 42.98 1,704 53.40 1,761 51.04 35,638 50.15
WILKIE, Kim Australian Labor Party 29,550 50.29 2,624 47.39 69 57.02 1,487 46.60 1,689 48.96 35,419 49.85
SCRUTINY DATA
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-247.htm
WA DIVISION – SWAN
Declaration Vote Scrutiny Progress Absent Provisional Pre-Poll Postal Total
Envelopes Issued 7,241 1,469 4,824 2,489 16,023
Envelopes Received 7,238 1,469 4,648 3,796 17,151
Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny 23 1 1 8 0
Ballot Papers Counted 5,850 134 3,256 3,526
Been thinking about Nelson (yes I know – probably not a good idea). It is a shame he was elected leader.
He would have been the perfect deputy to someone else. To use a Rugby League analogy he is a back rower.
He will do lots of tackling – do a few hit ups – occasionally win man of the match for his work. But he lacks the flair to be captain of the team.
He will end up being shafted because he is a team player – not a leader.
Did someone actually say that Kroger is talking sense? In what sense would that be? The guy is an automated factional bot, is programmed to go into loop mode (what else?) and repeat whatever the script du jour happens to be.
Ya’d get more sense out of a guppy.
The Greens & Democrats will not merge. But many ex-Democrat members will join the Greens as this has already happened. Not sure if many Greens have left to join the Democrats.
After 6 hours of discussions the Qld Libs have decided to spill all leadership positions.
Meanwhile in Calare the AEC has finally updated the figures for the first time since 29/11.
NPA = 35,789
CLP = 18,521
Ind + GRN = 19672
INd + GRN + CLP = 38193
NPA handily won the postals but their Pre-poll vote was poorer than their Ord vote 47%
Ind did better in both Postals and Pre-poll than the CLP
There are over 5000 absent votes to be counted plus about 800 postals.
The above information is (According to the AEC site)….
shows the progress of Declaration vote scrutiny for a particular division. On this screen you will find…
The number declaration vote envelopes issued for the division.
The number of declaration vote envelopes received by the division.
The number of envelopes rejected at preliminary scrutiny.
The number of declaration vote ballot papers counted.
Ruawake @ 246. That is correct but my earlier point was that Goss had lost so much support in such a short time that he was placed in that difficult electoral position.
MelbCity the AEC gave a perfectly simple explanation for these apparent anomalies about three pages ago. Spare us more conspiracy theories. You’ve been living in KGB-land too long.
“I am Lib’s Messiah”
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/im-libs-messiah-says-python-star/2007/12/04/1196530644941.html
lol
Adam
Have you got the ref for that info. I raised the question of the apparent anomaly in the figures in Calare (for which I apologise) but missed the response.
262: looks like the Greens are buddying up to the Shooters, not the Demos
Greens, Shooters unite over chooks
Dovif….what’s wrong with latte sipping lefties?? Although personally I prefer an old fashioned flat white. While my parents were definitely working class, my own political leanings are governed more by social democrat values than social status. And I’m a flat white sipping lawyer!
wysiwyg “Greens, Shooters unite over chooks”
Typical of the Shooters to poach GRN ideas. Let’s hope they don’t don’t over egg the situation.
yeap flat white sipping lawyer, no problems with that, just like there is no problems with the far right red neck idiots
Dovif, you have no problems with far right redneck idiots (we call them Seeneys in Qld)??
dovif #254 “late sipping lefties”.
What does that make me? My motto’s always been “sip early sip often”.
What a joke, Garrett wont answer any Climate Change questions in the House of Reps instead Rooster Swan will take all of them.
The ALP really are a disgrace.
Your guys will have to ask questions in the Senate Glen.
Penelope Ying Yang Wong is the Minister for Climate Change – get used to it.
Actually no, ruawake, Senators have to answer questions on behalf of ministers in the lower house and lower house ministers have to answer questions on behalf of senate ministers.
Glen, what are you referring to? Is Swan to answer questions on behalf of Senator Wong?
Glen
Who in the L/NP crew will bother to ask any questions on Global Warming? Half of
‘em thinks that it’s not happening and most of the other half think that it is all part of god’s intelligent design.
You guys went 11 years without answering any questions at all, certainly none truthfully, so spare us this garbage. A little humility from the recently defeated mightn’t go astray, Glen.
Glen
Thats the way it has always worked, if your guys want to ask a question of the relevant minister then do it in the appropriate chamber.
What has Environment, Heritage and the Arts got to do with the economic portfolio of Climate Change?
http://img525.imageshack.us/img525/3300/costellouv9.jpg
Anybody have the full size image?
189
At least we can rest assured that if such an unnecessary, uncalled-for, utterly baseless, indeed Stalinist witch-hunt, of Star Chamber redolence, should occur, he will have the good manners not to ask a Socialist Government to pay the legal bills.
A better option of course is for Kev simply to thank him for his long service to the public, and give him a big gong.
Di are you related to Charlie ?
There’s nothing “Stalinist” about getting to the bottom of a criminal conspiracy to defraud the Australian taxpayer by paying bribes to foreign dictators, and to expose the culpable negligence by ministers of the Crown who had legal responsibility for these matters.
Well, Andrew Landeryou seems to think that Turnbull is contemplating challenging for the opposition leadership again soon:
“Supporters of Malcolm Turnbull say that as many as four votes in the federal party room leadership contest were not eligible to vote and that the defeated candidate is contemplating formally challenging the result on the basis that it is illegitimate.”
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2007/11/party-room-carnage-turnbull.html
To me, a new challenge so soon seems very unlikely. But none of us would be surprised to hear of further reports of deep bitterness amongst Turnbull supporters.
Meanwhile, Bob Ellis goes a step further (as he usually does) and predicts that the Liberal Party will split in the not too distant future:
“But it’s all done now and their version of the Florida Recount (two late-arriving Malcolmites were forbidden to vote and one eager Brendanite may lose his seat and so show Malcolm really, historically won) will work away like a munching tapeworm in the party’s guts till Brendan in August calls on a spill and Malcolm is acclaimed and a Double Dissolution sinks him too, and a once-great party breaks up into warring shambles and like the Democrats, the DLP and the UAP disappears from history. It may not happen that fast of course, but it’s coming. ”
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2107621.htm
Well Glen the Libs did get good value out of Garrett during the campaign.
There is an old cricket adage. If you find a bowler you like – don’t take too many runs off them or the captain will take them off.
That’s why you know have Swan ‘n Wong to ask about climate change.
Bob Ellis’s track record as a prophet is not great. I think the Liberals will survive this defeat, although they may be a long time in opposition. But who can tell what will happen tomorrow, let alone in three years?
Robb and Ruddock to hold a post mortem into the election defeat for the Libs.
How appropriate.
Perhaps Eric Idle could offer a solution to the Qld Liberals problems. If Flegg and Santoro can’t agree, why not split? Then Flegg could lead the People’s Liberal Party and Santoro could lead the Popular Liberal Front. (obviously Flegg could not lead a popular front).
I was going to say they now just need a Crack Suicide Squad, but why not just send Tony Abbott north and then they’re completely set!
Alternatively, Flegg could lead the Silly Party and Santoro could lead the Extremely Silly Party.
288 Albert F – yes, “the Libs did get good value out of Garrett during the campaign”. I wonder how many seats it saved for them. It didn’t save them from losing government.
Adam
I think those are the parties where those who see themselves as “born to rule” trully belong.
Jho could make a return……………….
Albert F @ 250 – not underpaid, but on leave. (Whew.)
The thing about professional wages is a bit scary, though, esp if you think about it in terms of the election campaign discussion of wages breakouts. To match overseas wages for some professionals, you’d be looking at a really hefty increase. A UK teacher fresh out gets a bit more in pounds than a NSW teacher does in dollars, and considerably more again if they live in or near London. It’s a similar story with a lot of other professions.
282
ruawake – I agree but tell that to Prime Minister Rudd! According to Melbourne’s 10 News, Garrett will not answer any questions on Climate Change, Penny Wong said Swan will answer them.
BTW Wilkie will need to find himself another job, he’s now 356 votes behind
HAHAHA the only sitting ALP MP to lose his seat in 2007 what a noob.
Now WA is a Tory bastion, 11 out of 15 seats
so here is a random question: if you were writing a book about this election…. what would you make the title? serious answers only please
Then I take it Howard, Nairn, Lloyd, De-Anne Kelly, Baressi etc etc are also noobs, Glen? And what is Jackie Kelly? Supernoob?
Well actually no, because they were fighting against the swing. Wilkie was on the back of a 6% national swing and he still lost his seat, that is what makes him a noob.
Well it goes without saying Jackie Kelly is an Ubernoob.
Sorry, The Election is Tomorrow: A Thousand and One Ways to Tell Stupid People That It’s Too Late to Lodge a Postal Vote Application
It took a 0.8% Swing to unseat Wilkie, Glen. I wouldn’t have called him a ‘noob’.
I know that your loss is depressing, but please have some decency. And, you know, easy on the leet speak.
“Dr. Death or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Unions”
Now you just sound like the defeated greats of the Liberal party in their final days. Just lying through your teeth, really Glen.
The Climate Changes…for Good
Oh lighten up Andos that title was for a laugh!
But Wilkie did have incumbency and had those mail outs for postals but that didn’t help him either.
Old Hands, New Faces
It is a bit of a puzzle why Swan was the only seat in the country with a sitting Labor member to produce a swing to the Libs.
“Heaven on Earth: the Rise of Economically Conservative ‘Socialism’”
I was talking about your assertion that Steve Irons was fighting against a 6% swing in unseating Wilkie.
It’s completely inappropriate to compare a nationwide swing with that in a single seat.
A Rudd Awakening
10pse
“Oh dear what happened – we thought you were joking”.
Its a marginal swing to the libs.. Chances are the AEC has got its count data wrong. Does not look like they know how many votes they have issued. I am sure Swan will be recounted. The division of Sydney did not do too well for Labor either.
10pse re book titles – I’d like to call it Howard’s End, but that one is taken. Ditto The Party’s Over, unfortunately.
It wd also depend whether you wanted to focus on the victor or the vanquished.
Marathon Man: the rise and rise of Kevin Rudd
Annihilation: John Howard and the destruction of the Liberal Party
Gary B,
Maybe Garrett should gone the green senetor route. If you only aiming for 5% to 10% of the vote you have a lot more freedom
I think he made the trade to be constrained within a major party but able to acheive more. It does seem like he has yet to fully come to terms with this deal.
If Irons holds it by more than 300 votes i doubt a recount will be needed.
The Man Who Stayed Too Long: How John Howard Succumbed to Hubris and Wrecked His Own Party
‘An Election Too Far’
Adam, interesting title…. locks you into a fairly prescriptive narrative i would ave thought
“They shoot bastard PMs don’t they”
i had thought maybe ruddslide… but the victory is not big enough
Lindsay looks home in Herbert…>280 ahead
Actually there’s no doubt what the book title will be:
Kevin07: the Inside Story of the Most Successful Marketing Campaign in Australian Political History
‘Kevin Rudd: How Slogans Won Me the 2007 Election’
or conversely
“Union Bosses”: How the Liberals Completely Misread the Public Mood and Threw Away an Election What a Bunch of Noobs by Glen “Secret Labor supporter all along” Milne.
ADAM @ 267..
Where is the AEC explanation as to why they are recording more votes received then issued? I have written to te AEC and they have not yet replied. Clearly there is something wrong with the data and I am more then keen to know where.. I think they should be providing a full detailed disclosure of where the votes came from. They have made the mistake and they now have an obligation to detail exactly what went on.
I looked for the explanation you referred to and could not find it. Please provide a link our outline of the excuses made.
Adam got a t shirt you would love. Its red with the Green logo and the words ‘not just green’
Chris Curtis@310 – brilliant.
How about different ones from different people?
Costello, “You Can’t Take it Back You Know?”
Abbott, “So This is What People Skills Get You?”
Howard, “If Only They’d Listened to me in 1988, I’d Have Won Bennelong”
Nelson, “Let’s Get This Party Started”
“The Queensland Liberal Party’s leadership deadlock is still not resolved.
A party spokesman has just emerged to issue a statement saying the eight MPs have unanimously decided to declare all positions vacant for the Liberal team.
That one decision took them six hours to reach.
The statement says the discussions have been frank and open.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/04/2109628.htm
327
Melbcity – It’s a CEC cover up!’
Adam or
“Dr. Death or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Unions” (my pick)
“The Third Man: How Peter Garrett almost lost Rudd the 2007 Election”
“Red Storm Rising: How a socialist became Deputy Prime Minister”
Labor TPP is down to 52.85%… maybe my prediction couple days ago of 52.8% was too generous… maybe 52.7%
“How To Run An economy And Lose A Country.”
“If you want to win the game – change the rules”
- Australia’s 21st century election campaign
“The Backroom Story: Coralling a Couple of Percent From Old Folks Homes Via Postals”
Noob of the year award goes to the Federal Liberal and Notional parties. After umpteen years of growth, record employment and unprecedented prosperity they managed not only to lose the election, but to have one of the largest swings in living memory against them.
Further absentee counting in McEwen today has put Bailey 215 in front.
‘Jackie Kelly: Ratf!!!king for Dummies’
MelbCity, I can’t find it either, but I know I’ve seen it. Maybe it was at another blog.
“Bruced!” by John Winston Howard
What’s all the fuss about? Many of us thought it would be difficult to pick up a net 16 and Kev himself said it would be like climbing Everest and he doesn’t tell lies, even though the rest of us might. And whatever way you look at it, reaching the summit is a whole lot better than finishing up on the ledge just below, even if you’ve got to get back down in one piece.
I think only Bowman and Solomon are genuinely in doubt now, and Labor is maintaining its narrow leads in both.
Swan is weird. If the reported AEC figures are correct it will end up in the court of disputed returns.
1,099 of 1,469 provisionals rejected? Seems very odd to me.
Grey Says:
December 4th, 2007 at 7:18 pm
‘Jackie Kelly: Ratf!!!king for Dummies’
Grey, you got my vote with that one, another great title in the ‘for Dummies’ series, can’t wait to read it
342 Adam, have a look at the Solomon section on PB for latest scrutineer details on the count. Hale looks like holding on to his lead and maybe even better it tomorrow.
“People skills for Dummies” by Tony Abbott
“How to Win Friends and Influence People II: the Coercive Approach” by Tony Abbott
No Socrates here is the real title…
‘Reasonable People Skills for Dummies’ by T. Abbott
“Mr Speaker, Mr Speaker”
“Who didn’t tell me, What they didn’t tell me, When they didn’t tell me”
- John Winsome Howard
‘Kevin Rudd: The naughty boy who stole the 2007 Election’ – by Julie Bishop.
Brendan Nelson: “My rise and rise to become Mr 14%”
Tony Abbott: “Wishing I could rise as high as Brendan Nelson”
Malcolm Turnbull: “F*&% the lot of you”
Okay. I have. So far.
Undisputed Return.
Thanks for the mind clue, ruawake.
When will we see six PMs in the PB ‘masthead’?
I Have Reasonable People Skills…Except with Darkhearts Like Bernie Bantan
by Tony Abbott
Why dont we get rid of Whitlam and start from Hawke that way Rudd can fit in!
Forget about blubber boy no pants, Fraser was a dead loss IMHO.
Start from Hawke and go to Rudd.
Pancho (329),
Thnak you. I don’t often get a ‘brilliant’. Of course, history is written by the victors – and then rewritten when a new set of victors happens along.
What about “Wackothediddilio – the new Skipper Feeling Chipper”?
What about
‘When it comes to Victory’ by Kevin Rudd
John Winston Howard: “Sorry I lost the election (but that’s not an apology)”
‘I’m sorry i lost the election, but it wasn’t my fault’ – JWH
“Workchoices Made our Choice EASY!!!”
Or “The Re-alignment of Howard’s Battlers: a postmodern discourse on alternate dominant and recessive paradigms”
“where did my mind go?’ by Jho
‘Rooster Little: How i put upward pressure on Kevin Rudd’ – Wayne Swan
“The year Hyacinth went missing”
Nelson is a goose.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/04/2109576.htm?section=justin
“Power without Glory” by Mark Vaille
“Power without Glory or Power” by Bruce Flegg
“Expirationalincentivisnationalism”
“Drop the dead donkey vote”
Frank it’s a valid point, is John going to resign his Presidency??
“My mate Ironsy went to Canberra and all I got was this lousy t-shirt”
Nice, though I thought it was
“Aspirational Expirationalincentivisnationalism”
“Lib Misérables”
John Hunt for the Red: November
“How the Disgraceful Jackie Kelly bookended Howardism”
by Laurie Oakes
Has Andrew Robb been googling again?
The Borrowers’ Revenge
In which a horde of tiny, but heavily indebted people living in the wainscotting of Kirribilli House rise up one night and evict its incumbent and his trophy wife.
See, told ya Symbolism wouldn’t work
JWH, why I leopard can’t change his spots
Next. Lighter.
Australia Labours. Australia Delivers.
Laming behind by just 90 votes, he’s storming home yeeeha!
Bowman might just hang on as a Tory seat!
“Swings and Ruddabouts: Election 07 and Kevin Rudd’s hold on the public consciousness”
Or, in an appropriate homage to all those dreadful German POW films:
“For you, Johnny, ze Culture War is Over”.
“Working Ingrates in Australia Have Never Been Better Off”
“Honey, I Shrunk the Vote”
The Howards – Not A Working Family
“Who the f#@k meesed with my mind?”
messed
346 – “Dummies for ‘People Skills’: A Good Way To Keep Me From Speaking”
And some new kids books:
Where the Tame Liberals Are
Possrudd Magic
Snugglemal and Cuddlebren
The New Tale of Peter Rabbit (the one where he runs away from Farmer Rudd)
Maxine and the Bad Hat: A story of Bennelong
Howie’s Castle
‘The Great Manchurian Candidate Swindle: How Australia got sold a Pig in a Poke’
The Nation That Broke A Prime Minister’s Heart
[Now we are] Relaxed and Comfortable
To return to boring issues like the election count …
O’connor is interesting not least because of the the ballot order …
Conservative candidates with over 4% of the vote are sitting right above the National party candidate – including an independent with a likely significant donkey vote
I think it is interesting – love to know what Tuckey’s scrutineers are saying – he has been very quiet …
Unelected Dictator – The Janette Howard Years
Forthcoming auto biography’s –
How to hate unions & lose elections – by John Winston Howard
‘To the victor the spoils’ – By Peter Costello
Politics for dummies – Tony Abbot
Russian roulette – Australian Democrats
LMFAO!
Jackie Kelly’s Christmas Book of Religous Pranks
On the 2nd last day of the Campaign, Kellys husband gave to me
2007 Christmas Carols
TV saved my life – Joe Hockey
Power & the paste – Robb Andrews
Tea party at Tiffanys – Alexander Downer
ME, ME, ME – Malcolm Turnbull
“Floats Like a Butterfly and Stings Like a Bee[atch]: Overington & Newhouse’s Wentworth Frolic”
“I’m not Coping…Please Let it End”
by Dennis Shanahan
“Flegg Begs the Liberal Dreggs: Life and Laughs in the Qld Coalition”
It appears that atrophy has beset this blog
…and Possum is deserted too!! We need an election!!
Nice Phillip Adams piece today…
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/phillipadams/index.php/theaustralian/comments/no_pride_in_feeling_no_shame
Hey Voter Boy:
Have you spoken to your contact since the poll, or has his phone been ringing out?
Sorry if you’ve posted earlier on this, but after getting back from my little post-election holiday I couldn’t be bothered wading through 3000+ re-iterations of “Woo-Hoo!”
Yes Chino – Phillip has had a burst of insiration lately. He’s been writing almost every day. Rudd must be his muse.
OH: I havent heard about VBs inside contact since the election.
And one more book title…”Election Erection: Australia Falls In Love With the Ruddster!”
Just an observation but a quick scan of the 2PP results in the mining towns in Kalgoorlie would seem to indicate that AWA’s might not be as popular in that part of the world as we have been led to believe. The residents of these towns seem to favour the ALP (generally speaking). However since a proportion of workers in these areas probably work on a two week on and two week off basis or similar arrangement their electoral address is probably outside of the Kalgoorlie electorate these may be the workers who it is alleged are in favour of AWA’s.
Enjay: Wouldn’t that mean the ALP should win Kalgoorlie?
407/408
I did speak to him a few days after and posted something. He was in shock, even though he knew it was coming. I think that was when he told me that there were 500 staffers out looking for jobs, but that they were all effectively unemployable. He was scathing about Costello.
One thing I will say, however, which I didn’t say at the time: I asked him who was likely to become the leader, and he said Turnbull. ‘What about Nelson,’ I asked. (Not that I had any insider knowledge – I was just running through the names..) ‘No chance,’ he said. ‘Two parties, three wives.’
@356 Glen says:
Why dont we get rid of Whitlam and start from Hawke that way Rudd can fit in!
No, no, please! That pic of Whitlam looking a goose in his ‘It’s time’ T-shirt is far too good to lose!
Thanks VB: I suspect your friend’s gut feeling re Nelson is a fair reflection of the way he is considered in the party – in spite of his elevation to the leadership (to use a Keating distinction)- or at least the headship – of his party.
E. G. Whitlam a goose??? That’s heresy in these parts! Besides, wish I had an It’s Time shirt now – would be worth a fortune on ebay. Must ask Gough if he still has his.
Apologies – he didn’t say Turnbull (my false recollection, alas – but I do remember him saying something about Malcolm being very capable but having too high an opinion of his own capacity, which cause him problems in the party room). I posted on The Day After The Day After… (I’m unsuccessfully trying to cut and paste it – it’s post 868 on November 26 – not far to look, still on William’s front page)
So 500 Coalition staffers are now unemployable?? They will find Centrelink a wonderfully accommodating place. Perhaps they could go to one of Ms Rein’s employment agencies? otherwise they’ll just clog up the unemployment figures and make the Rudd government look bad.
417
Ferny Grover Says:
December 4th, 2007 at 9:52 pm
So 500 Coalition staffers are now unemployable??
They ARE employable
….helping write Howard’s memoirs: ” ‘please explain’….what truth is means “
ruawake (343) It is not uncommon for a high proportion of Provisional votes to be rejected.
Ferny G – not that Gough’s a goose, but he just doesn’t look the T-shirt type.
Anyone for the job of teaching displaced young Libs life skills? I’m sure people will be falling over each other in the rush to take them on …
So….job options for unemployed former coalition staffers? Hmmm….crash test dummies???
Jenny – must admit I never did see Gough as a donner of T-shirts. Glad you avoided the heresy too!
Newspoll says the 3 most important issues to voters in the Election were
health , education and water
Does any blogger believe this nonsense ??????
Does the ‘oz’ want us to forget that the MOST important issue WAS work choices
followed by climate change , then Howard lost touch/anyway retiring then Costello
Rudd said “the words ‘work choices’ were the words the Liberals dare not speak”
Guess the ‘oz’ wishs to follow suit in helping the liberals by dare not speak the word
Gough may have looked a “goose” in his t-shirt but at least he wasn’t so self-absorbed as to put his own name on it.
fg @ 411. Not when you look at what else is in Kalgoorlie. It covers a vast area of WA. Agricultural areas in the south and east are very one-sided coalition areas.
Adam OK but what was there excuse. I still have not had a reply to my email on this issue. You sure you not para phrasing someone elses assumptions?
I am amazed but not surprised that the Electoral Authority does not maintain accurate records on the number of ballot papers they issued. They use to but they have been getting slack of late. We should know exactly how many ballot papers were issued and by whom on election night. Too many times we see that mysterious bundle of 50 votes appear from no where on in the case of Western Metro Victoria votes went missing in the second count and Tilly never provided the answers or data to back up what went wrong. I want an answer not an excuse. Aga9in I wish to point out that io think it is great the AEC has published this data. It just needs contain more details and accurate information. If we had one electopral authority then maybe the costs associated with maintaining a professional work force can be justified. Another reason to adopt fixed four year terms we would save millions of dollars…
What are the union movement going to do for the people who work casually, they consist of 30 per cent of working population in this country, workchoices did not impact upon them.
Ron, I think we’ve all learned to take Sol’s interpretations of things with a lot of salt. I’d have to look at Newspoll’s methodology to make informed comment but I was surprised that WC wasn’t in the top 3.
Ron – the way Newspoll tried to mask the strength of anti-WorkChoices sentiment was to split it into two questions, with ‘industrial relations’ as a separate issue. Both scored strongly, but if they’d been asked as a single question, the result would have been stronger.
Correct Jenny – how on earth did Newspoll decide that Workchoices and industrial relations were two different issues?
Why should Faulkner have to resign as ALP President? He would still be a Labor politician! What would be the difference?
Because Tom he is special minister of state, Gary Nairn was not the Liberal Party President, but it goes into the sensitivity of the ministerial commitments and the role Faulkner would play as ALP President.
Marky – Who says casuals haven’t been affected by WorkChoices? Many have been put on AWAs, and they’re doing incredibly badly out of it: http://www.econ.usyd.edu.au/download.php?id=4301
At the most basic level, quite a few employers have insisted that they won’t start paying people until they’re actually at their desks or using their equipment, so employees have to do any setting-up or closing-down procedures in their own time. This is an invitation to industrial accidents.
No Glen but that did not stop the Rodent from fiddling with the Electoral Act, which I must say I thought despiccable and anti-democratic.
Glen
I have always wanted to ask a really Conservative person (though I don’t know any) why do Conservatives see global change as an ideological/religious issue rather than a scientific issue? Isn’t it like a factual issue rather than ideological?
marky marky Says at 427.
‘What are the union movement going to do for the people who work casually, they consist of 30 per cent of working population in this country, workchoices did not impact upon them’.
Did too, marky.
It is possible to assume that the ‘thugs’ will exercise some muscle on their behalf, unlike the thugs of days of gone by, in Government, who didn’t give a rats, except for the highly taxpayer funded, consultants et al, who fed on and were fed by our taxpayer dollars.
The Govt of the olden days did not care in the least for the small contractor.
Definitely, they have no Union, nor had a body to defend their interests.
We will see.
“The central conservative truth is that it is culture, not politics, that determines the success of a society. The central liberal [progressive] truth is that politics can change a culture and save it from itself.” – Daniel Patrick Moynihan
405 Ferny Grover
‘…and Possum is deserted too’!!
Not at all, FG.
Still clambering to aspire to sit at his glorious perch.
I take it the Electoral Act will NOW be changed to re-enfranchise those who were denied the right to vote by the Liberal Party?
Will the new act be called the Howard Electoral Rort Amendment Act?
A small point that needs clarification. Was Costello going to mute or neuter Rudd ?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22849711-5012863,00.html
“We could have neutered that appeal of Labor if we had a fresher face, but we didn’t,”
However, the Lateline transcript says:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s2106788.htm
“we could have muted that appeal of Labor if we’d had a fresher face, but we didn’t.”
As Costello has neutered himself its a moot (or mute) point
435
DroversDog -
I am a Tory and i think it is a scientific issue and an economic issue. Personally i dispute the claim that climate change is all man made that is my opinion.
I don’t dispute that climate change is happening, but i don’t think its purely caused by man. I think practical steps are needed to reduce the impacts of climate change, i support nuclear power as one option but i will not support any moves that will be economically catastrophic to Australia. I think it is a disgrace Rudd has signed us up to targets without knowing their economic impact on Australia.
The economic impact on Australia of meeting our Kyoto targets would have been a lot less if we hadn’t had a climate-denialist Prime Minister for the past 11 years. The cost now will be much higher than it would have been if we had acted years ago. This extra cost should and will be laid politically at the door of the Liberal Party come the next election.
I’m now not at all confident Labor will win Bowman and Solomon: the trend in late counting seems to be headed the conservatives way!
And it’s a damn shame Peter Lindsay will win Herbert again: the Labor Government could have done with George Colbran’s small business expertise.
However, I did find out that the new ALP member for Dawson is a financial director of a chain of medical centres in Nth QLD, so James Bidgood could be a useful addition to caucus.
What Tory blogers are REALLY saying is they still do not believe in climate change
but lack the courage to say so (its called “Howard speak”)
Actually Adam it is Labor’s climate change policies that could well cost thousands of jobs and they’ll be laid at the door of the Lodge for Rudd to explain for in 2010.
Ron Brown, i said i believe in Climate Change so do most if not all Tories but some differ on the extent to which it can be attributed to human activity.
Glen thanks for answer …..
I am a Tory and i think it is a scientific issue and an economic issue. Personally i dispute the claim that climate change is all man made that is my opinion.
I don’t dispute that climate change is happening, but i don’t think its purely caused by man. I think practical steps are needed to reduce the impacts of climate change, i support nuclear power as one option but i will not support any moves that will be economically catastrophic to Australia. I think it is a disgrace Rudd has signed us up to targets without knowing their economic impact on Australia.
if it is a scientific issue why do ALL Conservatives “dispute the claim that climate change is all man made”? It seems to me that it is an ideological issue for them (FOR you).
If you think it is caused by natural forces (not man made.. though that is an unscientific position) why does that mean you should not take it seriously? I assume that You believe it is better to do noting that to change existing economy? Give the urgency, nuclear power is likely to be too late to have any effects. I have never understood why Conservatives are dead set against environmental protection.
Glen says
I think it is a disgrace Rudd has signed us up to targets without knowing their economic impact on Australia.
Ron says
Well 192 out of the 194 countries in the World signed up
so guess you support the other 2 counties
Clearly you do not know what the Protocols say
I mentioned I was going to another party, Sunday night.
Making an ill judged assumption, at said party, I raised a glass.
Only to find a Liberal leaner, unexpected, in the mist.
Discussion ensued. Amicably, as I could well afford, on my part.
One striking, to me, comment.
The topic of Ruddock’s back benching arose. Others, not me.
The Lib voter said she admired him. He had a hard job to do.
I did not take the trouble to address this.
As someone said, as I think, why bother. The questions are obvious.
What was the ‘hard job’? Who and what made it so? Why did it have to be?
The ‘hard job to do’ told me all. Person doesn’t get it. Couldn’t, I assume, separate Ruddock’s self imposed or accepted ‘hard job’ as less than necessary.
As it was.
Person seemed quite rational, otherwise. Can’t get broadband. Fine for same at work, nearby. Knows someone who knew someone, who got a port at the exchange, denied to others. Annoyed, about lack of infrastructure
Displeased by her husband’s treatment at his place of work. Employee of Australia Post. Gets up at 4.30 am, for work. Not rewarded for services rendered.
Husband laughed a lot at the few comments I made, on that topic.
Australia Post may no longer have whistles, but they continue to recognise one when they hear one.
There is scientific evidence that disputes the claim that climate change is entirely man made Drovers Dog.
I believe it is more ideological for the left and the ALP, they believe in man made climate change like fanatics, religious fanatics IMHO.
If we were smart and went nuclear in the early 1970s under Gorton, we’d have a substantial nuclear energy industry by now but alas we don’t.
I never said i was against environmental protection, but we cannot and should not risk our economy to targets when the economic costs are unknown at least if we do something it must be thoroughly costed to ensure a minimal impact on the Australian economy.
449
Ron Brown – i never mentioned Kyoto Ron, i mentioned Rudd signing us up to targets 60% by 2050 without assessing the economic impact that is careless in my book.
The public accepts that radical changes are needed to meet the challenge of climate change. These changes will of course come at a cost. That cost will be higher than it would have been if the Howard government had not been mired in denialism for the past decade. The public will understand where the blame lies.
Bidgood is an interesting character. He came to Australia as a backbacker from the UK in 1991, and liked Queensland so much he never went home again. Thursday’s Caucus meeting was the first time he had ever set foot in Canberra. He got the biggest cheer of all at the meeting, even bigger than Maxine’s cheer, for bringing down the Queen of Rorts De-Anne Kelly with a huge swing.
Glen says not sure its all caused by human activity
…”Howard speak” for denying cause of climate change
Ron says
There are 400 billion tons of CO2 in the atmosphere
What non human activity put the CO2 there ?
Glan says
“if we’d had nuclear power since the seventies, we’d have a substantial nuclear energy industry by now but alas we don’t.”
If we’d invested seriously in solar power since the seventies, we’d have a substantial solar energy industry but we don’t.
Glen you are as bad as that ignorant fossil Howard who still thinks climate change is part of the culture wars.
Glen, thanks again for Your answer….
I disagree, from an economic point of view I think Austraiia should try to profit from a low carbon economy. I assume you mean by “we cannot and should not risk our economy to targets when the economic costs are unknown” that the Govenment should maintain at all costs the 19th / 20th century economies of oil/coal and not embrace a new/risky sustainable economy, despite what you see as the risks?
I thought capitalism was all about risks???
I am still confused why Conservatives have equated environmental protection with socialism??? and thus removed themselves from the debate
Because they are idiots?
Glen says
i mentioned Rudd signing us up to targets 60% by 2050 without assessing the economic impact that is careless in my book.
EVERY European Country has also signed up to the same 60% target
Why ???
because otherwise the World’s temperature increase will be OTHERWISE irreversible
….great grand kids simply will not have an inhabitual earth
The science is no longer in dispute
Adam.. i agree they seem to be idiots but I still do not know why they have confused envionmental rationalism with soicalism??
Drovers Dog, when you have left wingers and you have climate change and you give them the leavers they aren’t going to go for a balanced approach instead they will be willing to sacrifice the economy so as to protect the environment. What we need is balance, it should not be removed from the debate but we need some rational balance views on tackling climate change that aren’t going to risk our economy.
Dont’cha watch Lateline, anymore.
It is instructive.
Climate change, Climate change, Climate change.
The MAIN problem the Liberals have with Climate Change is the subject originated
from ‘the left’ and was dismissed as “looney”
The Liberals WRONGLY assumed it lacked scientific support… it does
459
Ron Brown – i hate to sound morose but we will have to leave planet earth at some point well well well into the future anyway, that’s not to say we shouldn’t tackle climate change just that we need to look to the bigger picture IMHO.
451
Glen why don’t you be specific in the claim scientific evidence disputes the claim Global Warming is a result of human activity?
Probably because every scientist who denies the evidence does so for personal gain.
You of course are better informed than thousands of scientists who disagree with you.
As for the nuclear industry; come back when cold fusion is a fact!
Liberals will not simply acknowledge without qualification that serious climate change is here now and it is caused by human activity
Note that Liberals talk about the subject but always with qualifications
and Glen’s #464 proves it
Glen, I agree these serious issues are beyond 19 th century Capitalist v Socialist debates which are about economic power. The Capitalists have won that debate. Why don’t you celebrate that?
I agree that there is debate because the science is so complex but pretty conclusive.. I still do not undertsand why ALL conservatives always raise the sceptacism about climate change? If it was a scientific issue you would expect that some would differ? That is why I assume it is a religious belief for conervatives.
Fine. Carry on. With Glen.
Time wasting.
Off to consider Possum’s.
Are the Liberals FROZEN on the date of the 23rd November 2007 when their then PM Howard was still really denying climate change ???
Oh !!! I forgot …on the 24th November PM Howard lost his seat
I consider the left who uses climate change as if it is their religion by taking measures that could have extreme consequences for our economic prosperity as dangerous.
It cannot be a religious belief to doubt some evidence, there is no definitive proof either way even those who believe it is all to do with mankind cannot be for sure that this is the case.
Just because the Right has religious people in it (not me as i am agnostic) doesnt mean we take issues like Climate Change religiously.
The worst Foreign Minister in Australia’s history (Dolly Downer) shamed Australia by not ratifying Kyoto despite the scientific evidence
Ah Glen nicknamed Thomas the twin
I’ve just enjoyed the last 20 minutes trawling through the last few pages of this blog, and I’ve gotta say it, you lot are a bloody national treasure.
Laugh? I nearly shat! (To quote the immortal Derrick and Clive! The rest goes something like: I haven’t laughed so much since grandma caught her left tit in a mangle….)
When I first suggested, a day or so back, that we get a working title for the Rodent’s memoirs, little did I suspect that you lot would do the heavy lifting and let rip with your fabulous wit and acid tongues.
What a ripper it’s been, thanks everyone.
Glen thanks for your response…..
You still write as if it was 50:50 unclear .. about the anthropological cause of climate change and that it is therefore an ideological position i.e. leftist (whatever that means) position to support environmental action.. Damn, I am glad your views did not get elected…
473
Kirribilli Removals Says:
Ron says what’s your suggested title for howard’s memoirs ?
“How to remain PM for 11 years and never tell the truth”
The Costello without the smirk:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/now-its-time-to-look-beyond-kyoto/2007/12/03/1196530572876.html
… and the one I’d vote for.
Ironic isn’t it? One brother is a puffed up wanna be leader, and the other is a real fair dinkum bloke.
Genetic variation has a lot to answer for, doesn’t it?
but is Captain smirk real (or a genetic implant ?)
Glen says “at least if we do something it must be thoroughly costed to ensure a minimal impact on the Australian economy.”
I agree Glen.
If we decide to pump tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere each of the next few
years then, before doing so, we must cost its impact on our economy: on the loss of agricultural land, on the loss of fisheries (especially shellfish), on the expense of finding new sources of water supply, on the cost of fighting the spread of tropical diseases into more populated areas, on the cost of accommodating increasing numbers of refugees from pacific countries, on the cost of protecting coastal areas from increased erosion and storm damage, on the cost of increased heat related deaths, on the loss of species with so far unexplored benefits to science and medicine, on the increased costs of fighting bush fires, etc etc
Do you honestly claim Glen that you have costed these carefully before you suggest that we release another year’s worth of greenhouse gases?
78
Dr Good Says:
December 5th, 2007 at 12:07 am
Glen says “at least if we do something it must be thoroughly costed to ensure a minimal impact on the Australian economy.”
Ron says: Glen is a lost cause. He (like Howard) REALLY does not believe in it
but uses ‘Howard speak’ to avoid being frank
Riveting as the debate about climate change has been, can we please nudge the discussion back in the direction of electoral matters?
Wink, Wink, say no more.
The election is over. William, it’s probably time to shut up shop here and go to the beach. This blog is becoming like a party when the guests won’t leave at 3am.
Tomorrow they’ll be counting the remainder of the votes in those close seats, check in here at 4:30pm tomorrow and we’ll know how the cookie crumbled.
Night ya’ll!
For those on this blog inhabiting the real world (rather than the pro-nuclear-because-there-is-such-a-crisis-that- we-have-to-act-in-an-authoritarian-and-economically-irrational-way-towards-picking-winners-among-technologies-and-at-the-same-time-it’s still-ok-to spout-the-sceptic-climate change-denying line, as peddled by the program known as “Glen”) can I recommend a serious look at the share prices and offerings of geothermal companies – the markets in my view have still not caught up on this any more than they did on, oh, say, bets on Maxine in Bennelong on 23 November… I intend to do something useful this week along these lines with a little money made on Bennelong and rather larger amounts made on Dawson.
BTW, Recent posts from the “Glen” entity have revealed as far as I am concerned that the apparent air, pre-election, of occasional dignity in a losing cause are best explained as just being artefacts of programming set up to deny any inconvenient truths as they come along. The alternative that it is an actual person spouting this nonsense is just too weird to contemplate.
Any feedback ?
I’ve tried to calculate the UNCOUNTED votes per seat by voter type and the 2PP vote each voter type gets (eg. postal) & applied that variable % to each of the uncounted voter types less informals
Labor
% vote margin
FLYNN 91.88 406
SOLOMON 89.38 -120
ROBERTSON 94.5 215
SWAN 91.02 -490
BOWMAN 91.59 -61
HERBERT 92.01 -429
DICKSON 95.44 -209
McEWAN 93.18 -161
LA TROBE 88.62 -452
Labor wins 2 of 8 for sure 7 a 405 chance in another 3
any thoughts ??
Well, if Climate change is the discussion of the the day
This is worth watching for rational (looking at you here Glen) argument
I saw it on Crikey awhile ago
I think its worth watching (Glen, no doubt you’ve seen it)
http://www.youtube.com/user/johnq5
RB,
I’d have thought Labor gets Flynn and Robertson (I guess these are your two certs) and I would have thought Bowman is pretty likely for Labor.
Solomon seems to me a total unknown – such a diverse seat with votes coming in from overseas serving officers, people in the outback, etc. Unless you know where the uncounted votes are from, I’d have thought it impossible to pick.
The rest seem to me to be going to the Coalition. They’ve kept their noses in front for a few days now.
So Labor gets 3, maybe 4 at the most.
And Calare still seems to me to be an unknown (Ind v Nats) – wish the AEC would put up some real info on it.
Ditto O’Connor (Lib v Nats), though Tuckey will probably win.
ABC appears to have given Flynn to Labor.
Yeah, William. With Adam.
There is summation, after polls, to be done. But, I’m sure that can be managed, without our input or maybe confined to, on a something like 9 to 5 basis or thereabouts.
But not all night! You have other work to do, as we know.
And beautiful beaches and places to be, in your part of the world.
And Christmas is coming.
Relax, and let the free range Lib turkeys do what they must. Roast.
Big year ahead!
487
Dyno Says:
December 5th, 2007 at 12:28 am
RB,
I’d have thought Labor gets Flynn and Robertson (I guess these are your two certs) and I would have thought Bowman is pretty likely for Labor.
Ron says; yes Flynn and Robertson seem certs
What I did is if a particular seat’s COUNTED VOTES WAS for example:
for “Absentee votes; informal 3.6% & balance spread ALP 51.43 % & LCP 48.57%
for ‘pre poll’ votes informal 2.1% & balance spread ALP 47.92 % & LCP 52.08%
for ‘postal’ votes’ informal 1.9% & balance spread ALP 46.56 % & LCP 53.44%
for ‘ordinary’ votes informal 2.3.% & balance spread ALP 50.64 % & LCP 49.36%
then I applied the above % for the UNCOUNTED votes in each voter type
ie. if the same % applies per voter type in uncounted votes as has already applied for counted votes in that seat ..then the above total result will occur
any thoughts ?
This election we seem to be getting, for the first time, indications of how many “Provisional” votes are claimed and then rejected.
It is interesting to see that it seems that a large majority of such votes are actually rejected. Eg have a look at the figures for Fremantle
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-240.htm
where it’s 80% rejected and not counted (out of 1200 so far)
or Tangney
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-248.htm
where it is roughly the same proportion (out of 600).
For the last election in 2004 we only have the total number of Provisional votes accepted (and we do not know how many were rejected).
From figures for Fremantle in 2004
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseDivisionFirstPrefsByVoteType-12246-240.htm
it seems that about 800 Provisional votes were accepted.
This election it might only be 400.
Why?
Have the changes to enrolment rules caught up with a reasonable number of people (maybe 60,000 across Australia) at this late stage?
RB @ 490,
So you’re saying Bowman’s still quite doubtful – could be.
Like your method, in general (and it’s a lot more scientific than what I’ve done).
Probably don’t think any method can totally predict the likes of Solomon, unless you understand where the uncounted votes are coming from – this is not info that is on the AEC site, but Party insiders might know.
“500 Lib staffers unemployable”
Will wedge for food.
I am sure this has come up before but I feel compelled to make comment on Julie Bishop winning the Deputy spot with the libs. There has been a lot of comment over a number of the threads particularly before the vote (I know I’m just catching up) about her favoritism for the position.
My considered view is that she could only have won the Deputy role because there were no truly talented members of the party willing to stand.
Consider her performance as Minister, poor to very poor. She really had no idea about education and whilst not wanting to offend the lawyers on the blog she epitomised the lawyer mentality; no clue about the real world.
The idea she should think she will be able to realistically challenge Gillard (I know another one) in Parliament is just a joke.
I dont believe the libs are suddenly bereft of people capable of doing a much better job the Julie, so why have they gone this way?
Her appointment is good for the ALP.
Then again I can look at my newly departed local member and wonder why he was preselected in the first place. Then I ponder why he won a term against a high quality sitting member.