The standout finding of a very interesting post-election Newspoll survey of 1125 voters is a question on preferred Liberal leader: 34 per cent responded for Turnbull, just 18 per cent for Nelson and 14 per cent for Julie Bishop, with the optimistic Tony Abbott on 9 per cent. Rudd predictably is streets ahead of Brendan Nelson as preferred prime minister, leading 61 per cent to 14 per cent (91 per cent to 1 per cent among Labor voters).
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: Turnbull 34, Nelson 18
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1,259 Comments
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re calare & Oconnor
it is possible that the sitting mps could be defeated if all others in the contest
preference each other & labor finishes third
I would favor in these circumstances Mr Tuckey & Mr Cobb to each win still
however it is possible that one or both loses
Does anyone know anything more about these contests?
Adam @ 998 – I am not suggesting a repeat of history, but that the non-Laor side has a history of implosion (via split or lack of interest), and that we are about to see that repeated.
Grog @ 1k – ideology has nothing to do with anything anymore. How 20C!
re voting laws
I think the savings provision should be reinstated that allows a vote to be formal
to the extent a voter”s intention can be identified
Max I agree Hale seems to have made it, nevertheless these are not final figures. What if 100 ADF votes from the Gulf arrive in tomorrow’s post?
Oconnor on the AEC figures looks interesting – on a reasonable on preference flows Wilson looks in some difficulty.
Calare is looking moderately OK for Mr Cobb but certainly not an absolute certainly.
The problem with O’Connor is that it has more booths than any other Division. For Tuckey to lose all the Greens prefs must go to the Nats ahead of Labor. Since this is not the natural inclination of Greens voters, the control of prefs depended on getting voters to follow the HTV, and they could only do this if every booth was staffed by Greens people all day. I doubt that was the case, and therefore would expect a substantial leakage of Greens prefs to Labor. That will probably be enough to save Tuckey.
Dear Adam. I don’t know what else to say but here is a clip from the NT News online (there’s more if u go to it).
December 06, 2007 05:22pm
Article from: AAPFont size: + -
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LABOR candidate Damian Hale has finally claimed the marginal Top End seat of Solomon, almost two weeks after the federal election.
Mr Hale won the seat from Country Liberal Party (CLP) MP David Tollner.
BOOSHKA ! (no hubris intended or implied).
1002 El Nino. Exactly – so where’s the impetus for a split?
Calare now (compared with 10 am yesterday)
Nat = 39,721 (37,438)
C/ALP = 20,163 (19,282)
Ind + GRN = 21285 (20,349)
Ind + GRN + C/ALP = 41448 (39.631)
Nat + CEC = 40503 (38,168)
C/ALP + CEC = 20945 (20012)
There appear to be about 700 declaration votes to be counted still.
With Tuckey to hold on, Bronwyn Bishop on the shadow Minsistry team and Phillip Ruddock hovering on the back bench where is the sense of renewal.
Add probable victor Fran Bailey and a host of Libs more focussed on their superannuation than the job at hand.
Basically, Nelson has the job of regenerating the Libs. It has not started yet. They feel no pain , because they have lost the election but have yet to suffer through the months and years of irrelevance.
Tony Abbott thinks a paint job and a few new faces is all that is required. The Libs are seriously deluded.
1008
The prospect of decades in the wilderness?
I expect Dave Tollner to run for a NT seat in their territory elections, he could be a better leader than the lady who’s currently running them.
Michael Keenan, Tony Smith and Greg Hunt sure will be smiling tonight!
Re:1006
This is true Adam , but the biggest booths (and the biggest Green votes) are in Geraldton and Albany which were staffed by the Greens on the day as well as some booths in the wheatbelt.
Agree it is unlikely that Wilson will ge knocked off. A lot will also depend on the preference flow from the CDP and One Nation. If they flow consistently to the Nats then it is a huge boost for them. Everyting will have to go right for the Nas bu it is still a cance.
I can’t imagine why. They are looking at at least two terms in opposition.
Anyone forcasting the end of the Liberal Party is smoking the same stuff as those saying The Greens will be a force in the lower house.
I may be wrong but I think is was 1946 when someone (other than an independent – and there have not been many) was elected that was not a member of the Labor – Liberal – or National/Country parties.
The only party federally that may slowly disappear is the Nats. (I don’t include any party that has never won a reps seat).
The Nats seem to lose to independents – then have a problem winning again – they will be subsumed by the Libs eventually.
Any word on when we will see a NSW state newspoll?
Jim Lloyd conceeded robertson yesterday aswell
Who would have thought in early 2001 that by this time the only tory rep from the NT would be a single senator who is there almost by default with just a 40% group vote.
1015: A Greens MP was elected to the House in a 2002 by-election.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Organ
More detailed article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cunningham_by-election%2C_2002
What an epitaph for Jim Lloyd – to be knocked off by Mrs Della Bosca and have his Ministry abolished by the incoming regime.
Then again the Minister for Pork being replaced by a Porker is probably quite apposite.
Only one Adam if there’s a recession…
1012 Glen. I think not. He made a public solemn promise not to and continually rejected that claim throughout the campaign.
We think he plans a come back in 3 years.
His other problem will be finding a safe seat to take over.
The CLP have almost no seats anywhere.
Most of their party meetings are held in their Tarago, “CLP, On The Move”.
Well he could go for Solomon again and do a Sharron Jackson ala Hasluck especially considering Solomon will be a marginal seat and there is a good chance the Tories will get a swing to them.
The CLP is suffering like the State Liberal Divisions because they lack good opposition leaders.
Glen Says:
December 6th, 2007 at 8:34 pm
Only one Adam if there’s a recession…
Glad to see you still are thinking positive.
He defeated Labor challenger Sharon Bird, aided by the fact there was no Liberal candidate.
If thats the best the Greens can do – ha ha ha ha – please nice Liberal types please do not field a candidate in 150 seats.
That depends on whom the voters blame for said recession, does it not? That will be very much an open question.
1024 Glen,
It is time for you to stand up. The Liberal Party need Rottweiners like you to carry the ball to the future.
Jeff Kennett wants to stand up. Will you stand on him or with him?
1024 Glen.
I agree about the close seat margin, and he has a brand name, worth more than getting in a new “red-neck” for the seat.
Local CLP leader tries hard but the fact is they hold 6 seats out of 24, none in Darwin itself.
Dave has a better chance of improving his Super by having another crack Federally, rather than 7-8 years leading 5 others try hards in a no-win opposition.
I suspect the next CLP Cheif Minister hasn’t moved to the Territory yet (LOL).
Actually Max I gather Adam Giles was a fairly impressive candidate, although he had a hopeless talk trying to beat Snowdon, and he is part-Indigenous as well, though not from the NT. Perhaps the CLP would do well to find him a seat.
talk = task
He presented well when he got “air” time but Wazza has got a lock on Lingari. Being from another traditional country doesn’t go down too well around most communities up here though. Not enough family connections can really hurt bigtime in some parts.
Yes but the CLP is never going to win the Indigenous vote. Their strategy must be to win back the white vote in Darwin. A leader who is part-Indigenous, while still being a conservative, would insulate them against charges of racism. If they had any brains they’d run him in one of the Dawrin seats they lost last time.
Adam,
I think you answered all your questions in your response!
By the way, the CLP doesn’t need Aboriginal candidates as much as it needs an Aboriginal heart transplant.
Really is time for them to let go of past predjudices now or they will disappear out of existance. Not many young members being attracted to them and no policies other than “Tough on crime” and “Zero Tolerance”.
Darwin is no longer in the back blocks and a cosmopolitan town needs an enlightened opposition, otherwise the local Labor mob will stay in for 20 years, even if they get sloppy.
What is the position of the member for Throsby ,Jenny George,in the Labor pecking order ,never seem to hear any news of her and what she maybe capable of in a Labor Government.
1033
They have plenty to choose from.
I know it’s hard for non-Territorians to understand but an Aboriginal person from another Traditional country won’t give the insulation you talk about. In metro seats candidates get grilled because they don’t live in the bloody electorate they stand in.
Moderate the CLP partY views first, then recruit some good local people and they might have a chance in 10 years.
She was a shadow Parly Sec before the revolution, but she got nothing. Maybe she and the Ruddster don’t get on, I don’t know. She is certainly very smart, but she can be abrasive. Since she’s just turned 60 she probably won’t get another go.
Thanks Adam,didn’t realize she was that old,always thought she was a good ACTU leader .
The Liberals will be back eventually. What can Labor do in govt to shift the poltical landscape to the left and ensure that the next Liberal govt is an improvement on Howard?
Well the jury is still out IMHO that the Rudd government will be better than the previous Keating government. Hopefully it’s an improvement but with the likes of Swan, Garrett and Roxon the signs aren’t that flash.
The Tories will get back whether its 2 or 3 terms who knows really, but i fear the media won’t give Nelson the free ride it gave Rudd which is a shame because i think Nelson has done a good job so far. But i want to see him reform the Party because we need to desperately.
Although i hope the Tories can actually win an election soon, being so far behind everywhere bar the Federal situation its going to be tough.
Re 1035,
NOT SO MAD MAX Says:
The same arguement could be made about the NSW Libs
. Cosmopolitan town needs an enlightened opposition, otherwise the local Labor mob will stay in for 20 yeras, even if they get sloppy 
Hopefully it’s an improvement but with the likes of Swan, Garrett and Roxon the signs aren’t that flash.
Swan? Was never destroyed by Costello despite mass predicitons.
Garrett? Well he has Arts, Heritage and essentially conservation. What are you worried about?
Roxon? Well given she would only have to continue to have a pulse to be a better Health Minister than Abbott, I don’t think we have to worry about her.
Glen,
You really talk fatuous nonsense. Rudd was given plenty of personal scrutiny over his up bringing, pole gate and the ear wax adventure. All orchestrated by the Libs to personally damage Rudd.
Maybe, if they had taken him seriouslly and tried policy they might have succeeded. The notion that Rudd had it easy is crap!
But keep it going for as long as you like. Once you stop blaming external sources you can start examining the internals. Take your time is all I can say.
Grog obviously you never watched Question Time, where Costello ripped Swan to shreds at each and every occasion.
Garrett in Opposition didn’t know the difference between doubling and extending.
Roxon said virtually zip about Health for the entire election, she’s a deadbeat IMHO.
No 1041-The adventures of Glen in Noddy Land.
1044
Greeensborough Growler – any other person and they’d have resigned but whenever the media got a story on Rudd it ran for a day then disappeared that’s why!
GG you have any proof mate???
GG all of the internals are gone thanks to us being beaten and we can only get better from here.
I can’t agree that the ALP has a two term advantage.
It looks like the 8 doubtfuls will split 3 ALP, 5 LNP.
Doesn’t that make it just 11 seats for Nelson/Bishop to win in 2010?
With the act-of-Howard-removal out of the way, surely there will be some swing back to LNP in previoulsy safe seats like Dawson and Page
I just don’t know how to fill in the time until it happens
Mr Squiggle how about – The ACT election
LOL
Please Glen. Costello sprouted guff that his front bench (and the press corp) loved, but I can’t recall any lasting hit he made on Swan (he killed Hugo Chavez, and Ian Campbell though)
If he HAD ripped Swan to shreds, Swan wouldn’t have made it to the campaign.
Geez if you want to waste three years going for Garrett please do. (all the while Penny Wong will slaughter you)
And I guess Abbott was so fantastic as Health Minister his demotion to FaCSIA is actually a promotion.
But I’ll play hypothetical. Let’s say Garrett, Roxon and Swan all go down. Gee it’s a pity the ALP has the strongest bench in history waiting to get on the starting team.
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