The standout finding of a very interesting post-election Newspoll survey of 1125 voters is a question on preferred Liberal leader: 34 per cent responded for Turnbull, just 18 per cent for Nelson and 14 per cent for Julie Bishop, with the optimistic Tony Abbott on 9 per cent. Rudd predictably is streets ahead of Brendan Nelson as preferred prime minister, leading 61 per cent to 14 per cent (91 per cent to 1 per cent among Labor voters).
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: Turnbull 34, Nelson 18
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1,259 Comments
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Jenny george should step aside
There are far more talented union officials that need to feel they can move on up if they play their cards right.
the more frequently that the Australian democratic system gets populated by union officials who see a seat in canberra as extension of a career in the union, the better for this country.
Well, the fun doesnt stop there, bludgers.
Nor the ignominy for the Nats.
A/c to my ALP senate staffer mate, now that the Nats and Greens have the SAME NUMBER of Senators (huzzah!), a new question arises: tenancy of the “minor party” suite in the Senate offices, currently occupied by the Nats.
Apparently, they’re not bad, not bad at all. But there’s only the one suite.
Guess who’s moving out? :O
Nats are, because they have 4 plus one CLP person. Greens have 5. Awww….
First prize to pancho for the correct answer! Nats out, Greens in!
But not until July.
The ONLY time Costello and Swan have ever squared off on level terms
was the TV debate
ALL the political commentators believed Swan won
Costello’s debating skills myth were demolished
Glen,
Resigned, what for?
Evidence – Read the MSM. over the last year. Special focus on the GG, Glen ” the Poisoned dwarf” Milne, Janet Albertross, Piers Arseache and a host of generic journalistic incompetents. Then start on the visual media John Howard cheer squad.
I will guarantee your purging has only just begun
Also, gotta love the fighting street for street corner in here even though the city fell long ago. Glen, Pencil nose, run! Your leader has fallen. Get a hold of some policy reinforcements then come back. UNIONS! is a dud, shooting blanks. And the hacks you talk about tore your mummys boys and girls to pieces.
Updates on Bowman and McEwen.
Bowman: Andrew Lamming leads by 50
McEwen: Fran Bailey leads by 77
And 3 years is a long time: let’s not try to predict what will happen in 2010/2011.
Mr Squiggle @ 1051 I just checked the numbers on Jennie George’s seat, and she got a 9% swing in her favour, which suggests that she must be a reasonably effective local member. Not everyone wants to be in Cabinet, you know.
Mr Squiggle (1048) Sorry to rain on your parade, but I think Labor has the talent to do a really good job in government and will increase their majority at the next election – which will probably put 2013 out of reach for the coalition as well.
Glen said, “i fear the media won’t give Nelson the free ride it gave Rudd”.
I swear Glen that you’re really Albrechtson in disguise. when did the media give Rudd a free ride??? Led by the GG, every Murdoch paper (and TVs Sky News) and several others tore into Rudd at every turn. Don’t you read Shanahan, Dr A, Glen Milne, Ackerman?? I could go on and on and on. Let’s stop with the glib nonsense that the media were soft on Rudd. It is manifestly false and it is testamony to the man’s capability that he was able to win government in the face of such a relentlessly hostile media.
A terrible performance from the Nationals. They lost Page, Dawson(WTF) and Flynn(notionally theirs before the election), and they weren’t far off losing Cowper also. A completely irrelevant rump, only propped up by elderly die hards in rural areas.
The Solomon win was helped by 663 pre polls & 89 postals rejected – a huge no.
Have the CLP done something fishy with so many pre polls rejected ?
It’s OK Progressive, they have addressed all that by electing the youthful Warren Truss as their leader.
One of the problems for the Libs is, counterintuitively, that they were not completely decimated. A humiliating defeat would have thinned their numbers and forced a rethink. As it is the win by Labor is a modest one leaving the Coalition within striking distance next time. They will be able to convince themselves that it was just the Howard factor and that no real policy change is needed. It will take a thumping next time to bring about real change.
FG whenever Rudd made a gaffe or destroyed his credibility like lying to Rosanna Harris about his rental policy there was hardly a peep from the media.
And GG, Rudd should of resigned after meeting with Brian Burke 3 times, being involved in Sunrises fake dawn service, lying about Scores (blaming alcohol), not knowing productivity, not knowing the tax system.
All those who talk about being a 2 election victory is bull butter, on the 2004 ABC telecast of the Election Kerry said it would probably be a 2 election win for the Tories, we all know what happened don’t we. I wouldn’t be counting your chickens yet, Swan has to control inflation and interest rates all the while having to support an inflationary IR policy. HA Turnbull will eat him for Breakfast in Parliament!
GG,
I’m not sure what you refer to by ‘purging’
The LNP are like the melbourne underworld……
…basically we catch and kill our own…
its cleaner that way, if the LNP lose someone, it ain’t going to be because some socialist decided to speak out bravely from the shelter of their union system.
There’s not going to be a purging here, what there will be is a ‘ cold re-assessment’.
Glen says
“Well the jury is still out IMHO that the Rudd government will be better than the previous Keating government.”
The last term of the Keating Govt is easy to beat. The guy had painted himself into a corner over his opposition to badly needed tax reforms. Part of the reason he spent so much time on “big picture” issues like our place in Asia was that he had nothing else to run on.
The 2nd & 3rd terms of Hawke/Keating are, I think, the benchmark for any post-war govt.
Howard’s best term was probably his second.
1062
Excellent point now you mention it.
Any very clever PollB champs out their able to calculate how many of the Nat/ Lib vote will “move off this mortal coil” between now and the next election AND how many young new Aussies will turn 18 between now and the next election, ready to vote for the nice guy who gave us the new computers?
Beyond me but there must be an impact on poll outcomes in some regions over say the last decade and the next one coming. Has to have a few % points in it nation wide. Might make a good thesis paper.
Nice to see the back of Andrews though
, thank god Nelson was smart enough to dump him and promote Keenan, Hunt and Smith.
The gap in McEwen has been closing with each update, but I don’t think there are enough votes left to get Labor over the line.
Glen:
“FG whenever Rudd made a gaffe or destroyed his credibility…” Well obviously he didn’t – he’s your prime minister now.
“Rudd should of resigned after…not knowing productivity” He’s pretty good with English though, asides whatever that collection of words is meant to mean.
“not knowing the tax system.” I think you’ll find that was Mr Sulky ‘papa-in-law-fix-it-for-me’ Costello
“Turnbull will eat him for Breakfast in Parliament!” Like Costello was going to destroy Swan.
Boring. All yeseterdays lost battles.
Yes, I’m guessing the Liberals won’t do much in the way of structural reform over the next 3 years. They’ll stick to Howard’s line on Work Choices/social policy, and hope both the economy falls over and Rudd stuffs up in a major way or there are ministerial scandals etc.
Interestingly: Chris Pearce, MP for Aston, refused Nelson’s offer of a Parliamentary Secretary job.
Glen@1070 – re Andrews, do you think he’s disliked in the party or was this a pre-emptive move before the inevitable Haneef falling out?
Glen,
1. Brian who?
2. Fake sunrise – The sun rises every day still.
3. Scores -Man goes to strip joint after a few beers. Thank goodness he is human.
4. Not knowing productivity – Has three children
5. Not knowing the tax system. Thank you Peter Costello.
Glen, I do like Bruce Billson, so I give Nelson credit for promoting him, and also Greg Hunt and Tony Smith.
Maybe Andrews was dropped completely because Nelson knows the crap will soon hit the fan when McClelland starts investigating the Haneef affair.
1066- Glen travels to the world of the Brothers Grimm
Ferny Grover re your media comments of bias:
eg.
The ‘Lindsay’ pamphlet story got no exposure in Melbourne’s biggest paper the Sun
The $442 mill.regional rorts got little exposure in Melbourne’s biggest paper the Sun
The $281 mill. workchoices ads got little exposure in Melbourne’s biggest paper Sun
The Melbourne HeraldSun did not treat Abbott’s gaffe’s as a big story
But surprise surprise the Garrett gaffe WAS a big story
What was the most hilarious attack ad? That weird Garrett one? The closeup of Julia? So much good material…
‘Three rounds with Winnie-the-Pooh’. Where the hell did that phrase come from?
#
1071
Jenny Says:
December 6th, 2007 at 10:03 pm
The gap in McEwen has been closing with each update, but I don’t think there are enough votes left to get Labor over the line.
Jenny the problem is pre polls & postals running a large LCP 2PP % votes
….if 40 can get rejected we win McEwen !
re post 1062
the nationals have not got a long term future
they hold about 10 seats in the lower house and half of those are
marginal
their problem is they are trapped by the liberals… they must go along with the libs
whatever they think… if you were a conservative voter why would you vote
for the nats?
also eventually the libs will take them on in their own seats & defeat them
also they do not have the canny leadership such as Anthony(D),Nixon
and McEwen that they once had
1074
Pancho – Andrews was giving a tough sell with workchoices didn’t come off well, had bad media skills and then made a hatchet job of immigration (the graveyard of most MPs). I don’t think he’s liked. But Andrews is the past, Hunt and Smith are the future of the Party in Victoria Federally.
Billson, Hunt, Smith, Keenan are all bright hopes for the Party, I’m glad they are getting a run.
If there is an Haneef fallout, it will hardly make headlines and he’ll be on the backbench and also let’s not forget that our newly elected Prime Minister supported Andrews to the hilt
. Anyway if you wanted renewal why go for Andrews an ‘old fogy’ and someone who has not performed. Bronwyn Bishop wont get up to too much trouble in Vets Affairs anyway she’ll probably be a hit down at the RSL Clubs lol, still you’d got to have some oldies on the front bench regardless.
Rudd’s 30% cut in Ministerial assistants is almost like Jim Hackers ‘Economy Drive’ in the Ministry of Administrative Affairs.
I read that Mr Pyne is ‘not in shadow cabinet’.
Can someone enlighten me – what on earth is a shadow cabinet and when did this tradition begin? Oppositions have no executive power; no secrets to be hidden.
Is it some way of reducing an unwieldy (45 member!) team of shadow ministers and secretaries? But if so, isn’t it still way too large to form a meaningful leadership group?
Darn at 1060 and Jenny (1059)
Darn – you may be right, its entirely possible the LNP will arse it up, but my point is that since election-night, it has been a case of “the increadible shrinking margin” for the ALP. It is no longer credible to say Rudd has two term margin.
Jenny – Jenny G may be a popular local member, but the fact remains she got her seat because of her previousACTU position.
If anyone on this site wants to claim Jenny George is an example of democracy at work then show me a safe conservative seat that elected an ACTU secretary and I will believe in the ACTU contribution to Australian democracy.
Hell, can anyone show me a marginal seat where an ACTU secretary won pre-selection?
Safe ALP seats are simply jobs for the boys, or in Jenny’s case, the girls. Shane’s next
And special mention must go to the really deep voiced man. I hope they use him again. I was almost crying whenever he came on. Glen, Mr. S, put in a word on my behalf if you can, please!
“1066
Glen Says:
December 6th, 2007 at 10:00 pm
FG whenever Rudd made a gaffe or destroyed his credibility like lying to Rosanna Harris about his rental policy there was hardly a peep from the media.
And GG, Rudd should of resigned after meeting with Brian Burke 3 times, being involved in Sunrises fake dawn service, lying about Scores (blaming alcohol), not knowing productivity, not knowing the tax system.
All those who talk…” blah, fuc*ing blah…
You lost sunshine – lost big time and it’s about time you woke up to the fact. As if Rudd should have resigned after any of he issues you’ve noted above. Your piss ant leader took this country into an illegal war knowing that to be the case so don’t ever bring up Brian Jerk or strip clubs or TV programs as being serious reason as to why anyone should ever resign from public office. You and your kind have no credibility to make such a demand.
1/2 Nelson has really brought in a YOUNG team with Bromwyn Bishop !!
at the expense of Pyne
this shows how poorly 1/2 Nelson is suited to leadership
Glen, fair points re Andrews, but
“our newly elected Prime Minister supported Andrews to the hilt”
is not quite true. He played pretty clever politics, much to the annoyance of those of us biting our tongues at the time. What he actually did was get Burke out there saying something along the lines of ‘on the basis of the evidence that we have been given, we support the steps the minister has taken’. I was paying very close attention and they never supported the action wholeheartedly. In a nod to Howard, it was all very tricky language. And Andrews, by claiming that he had secret info that he couldn’t or wouldn’t release dug himself further in. And I think set himself up for the hit he is going to cop.
Pancho @ 1079,
It is three years,
His name is Kevin,
Pooh is a very polite term.
1084 ASKS
Can someone enlighten me – what on earth is a shadow cabinet and when did this tradition begin?
The GREAT MAN, Gough Whitlam introduced it around 1970 to pin the Liberal Govt. down on all fronts. It worked an absolute treat and has been adopted now by almost everyone.
alot of the opposition could all end up in jail
Dr Haneef , AWB , david hicks , iraq , Habib , children overboard
Andrews , Howard , Dolly Downer , Costello ,
16 seats is a Labor impossibility, but 11 seats and about 25 marginals is a Liberal doddle in the Park?
You heard it here from Mr Squiggle, the man in the moon.
Pancho….The deep voiced man sounded remarkably like Jenny George! May explain why she’s on the back bench.
1091
NOT SO MAD MAX Says:
December 6th, 2007 at 10:22 pm
1084 ASKS
Can someone enlighten me – what on earth is a shadow cabinet and when did this tradition begin?
in the next 3 years , they will be invisible
Ferny! That makes perfect sense! She was another Labor plant (along with Abbott) to keep us all in stitches until the whole thing was over.
#
1094
Ferny Grover Says:
December 6th, 2007 at 10:24 pm
Pancho….The deep voiced man sounded remarkably like Jenny George! May explain why she’s on the back bench.
Pancho , are you sure it was not Dolly downer in his black stockings ?
Re the forecasts of what is likely to happen next election – The coalition parties don’t have a lot of electoral allies, and that is likely to make it harder for them to get back. This time they had Family First, but it looks as if FF fell short of the number of first preferences required for public funding in every state where they contested Senate seats; the only place they got over the line was in the Reps in South Australia.
shadow cabinet
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_Cabinet
Well I’m happy ya’ll Julie Bishop is on Lateline
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