The standout finding of a very interesting post-election Newspoll survey of 1125 voters is a question on preferred Liberal leader: 34 per cent responded for Turnbull, just 18 per cent for Nelson and 14 per cent for Julie Bishop, with the optimistic Tony Abbott on 9 per cent. Rudd predictably is streets ahead of Brendan Nelson as preferred prime minister, leading 61 per cent to 14 per cent (91 per cent to 1 per cent among Labor voters).
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: Turnbull 34, Nelson 18
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1,259 Comments
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Christopher Pyne has been relegated to some very minor shadow ministry. Obviously he voted for Turnball – retribution from Nelson?
Two biggest laughs are Tony Abbott in Indigenous Affairs and the resurrection of Brony Bishop – WTF was Nelson thinking?
Jenny , FF needs to be exposed by the Greens as a party with a voter attractive name but who preferenced EVERY LCP candidate in every one of the 150 seats
Ah, you’ll sleep well tonight Glen
I’m still peed off about Herbert – how on earth did that jerk Peter Lindsay get back in? The people of Townsville won’t get any money spent on them by the Rudd Government for the next 3 years.
FF would be wise to forge a proper relationship with the ALP. There are many Christians in the ALP who would be listening to FF if they were more reasonable in their approach.
The whole Bronwyn thing is weird – what is the point? I just do not get it.
1106,
It is not that hard.
45-42. Who did Bronwyn deliver?
GG – I know how they could break the ice. Ahem.
FF: Labor, remember the preferences I delivered you in 2004? Well now I need YOU to do a favour for ME.
GG – Janet Albertross is not my body double thank you very muchly
Julia Gillard: damn impressive again on the 7.30 Report tonight!
How could I ever have doubted her? She is awesome!
My take on the Howard factor is that was what caused the Lib vote in WA to stay firm. Take Howard out of the equation and I can’t see the Lib vote holding up next time with either Abbott or Turnbull. I will be interested to see the first poll with a State break down.
Michael Keenan is Shadow Assistant Treasurer. This is really a graveyard position. Who was Shadow Assistant Treasurer before the election? Or even who was Assistant Treasurer under Howard. Still, such a position should suit real estate salesman Keenan’s talents.
Growler, the support base for Family First are the far right evangelicals and pentecostals (like Hillsong). These fundamentalist churches are pathologically anti-Labor. Not many Christians in the ALP would be compatible with that lot – nor would they be welcome.
GG – “There are many Christians in the ALP who would be listening to FF if they were more reasonable in their approach.”
Well that’s the point. FF is largely peopled by AoG members who would be regarded by many mainstream Christians as at the very least in error and possibly heretics.
Ron @ 1102 Agree entirely about Family First, but it doesn’t seem that they’re going to be much of a threat (or, to look at it the other way, a very useful ally for the Libs). Even in SA, which is where they started, they only got a smidgin over 4% in the Reps, and they contested an awful lot more seats this time. They do have the fundraising capacity of the evangelical churches behind them, but they can’t afford to keep this up indefinitely. And Fielding will be a goner when his term is up – he never had much support anyway, and Labor won’t make the mistake of preferencing him next time.
The other scandal that’s likely to cause the coalition trouble is the regional rorts – though apart from Vaile and Cobb, and possibly Fran Bailey, all the protagonists there are out of parliament now. The report may not have had a lot of coverage in the metropolitan papers, but it seems to have got more of a run in the regional press. I wonder whether it was a factor in the monster swing against Dee-anne Kelly?
Wasn’t Dutton assistant treasurer in the Howard government?
FG, @1112,
Pathologically opposed to labor – evidence please.
Labor has always had Christians to the forefront of our Party. It is a matter of discussion and evaluation not mindless shunning.
1069
NOT SO MAD MAX Says:
“Any very clever PollB champs out their able to calculate how many of the Nat/ Lib vote will “move off this mortal coil” between now and the next election AND how many young new Aussies will turn 18 between now and the next election, ready to vote for the nice guy who gave us the new computers?”
I did some quick searching for my own curiosity during the election campaign & found that about 115,000 Australians die each year – so say 350,000 by the next election. I think roughly 65% will be over 65. We also have about 30,000 people permanently emigrate per year.
I think about twice that number will be ‘added’ per year.
From one election to the next it doesn’t seem like much, but considering that since 1990 ~2 million Australians have died or left, and another 4-4.5 million ‘new’ Australians have joined the electoral roll (for a total turnover of 6-7 million) is it any wonder that the Liberal party’s interest rate scare (& anti-union stance for that matter) failed to resonate? Perhaps if the dead could vote …
(PS any miscalculations are mine and mine alone – I searched websites of the usual suspects (ABS etc) for the numbers, but could quite easily be totally wrong!!)
cheers,
has julie bishop blinked yet?
Albertross,
You are a pain in the arse but I like your humour!
GG
I appreciate your sentiments, but I couldn’t support Labor doing a deal with Family First beyond the absolutely necessary. Fielding voted for Workchoices, which apart from being appalling law to anyone to the left of Mussolini seemed to be in direct conflict with his own party’s objectives. He can’t just explain that away. How does it help families? It doesn’t. He is a conservative fascade.
I am always suspicious of those who parade piety for political gain, and Fielding has run true to form. And what mandate did he have? He was elected on a primary vote under 2% by a erroneous preferencing strategy and an accident of mathematics. Otherwise he wouldn’t be there. This time the Democrats got a similar vote to FF in some States, and nobody thinks they are a force any more (with sympathies to Andrew Bartlett).
Labor should give Fielding a chance to vote to repeal Workchoices, and will have to try to negotiate with him. But given his lack of any credible mandate, and the current electoral mood, if Fielding refuses to pass IR, Climate Change or other key policy elements, Labor should call his bluff and threaten a DD, with a pointed reminder that there will be no preference deal this time. He is clearly to the right of the Liberals on many issues, so IMO he should be regarded as an enemy unless he demonstrates otherwise with actions.
gusface, she wouldn’t dare show such a weakness.
1114 An interesting feature of the last election is how well Labor did in the regional and regional areas especially in Queensland. State Labor has been ripping it to the Nats with its ‘Blueprint for the Bush’ program that last I heard the Nats haven’t even bothered to read let alone try to get their heads around. The Queensland Nats have become very lazy and complacent and every election more seats are lost.
Someone provided this link to check if Julie had blinked yet.
http://r33b.net/
Apparently not.
GG – you have to also remember that AoG/FF is being rocked by scandal after scandal starting with the notorious pederasty of its late founder in Australia, St. Frank Houston of the Kiddy Fiddlers.
The drum here in north west of the Sydney is that another prominent member is being investigated and that something is in the wind over employment practices relating to “college students” who are supposed to be studying theology but in reality are merely here to work in businesses at $3/hr rates circumventing the requirements of 457 visas.
Listy
Great question on the demographic change, and I concur with the logic. I don’t know the exact answer, but if you assume that the Liberals have an advantage of at least 10% in that demographic, every year they lose 7000 votes that way, plus whatever advantage immigration brings in. The worry is that as the population ages, more will join that age cohort, but I don’t think that automatically means they switch to voting Liberal. The over 65s really are the “Menzies generation” now and that will reduce over time. Labor providing a better hospital system might attract them too.
Socrates,
Can only agree with your practical approach as described. However, my concern, (bitch) is that FF represent a part of Australia that many in the ALP choose to shun because they don’t like the way they live their life.
The reality is they live and vote and Labor needs to be active in that area and have policies overall that will encourae them to vote for the ALP.
I don’t regard FF as an enemy of the ALP.
I have decided to call Julie Bishop
Lady Smirk [TM]
Can someone tell her to wipe that smirk off her face – she looks rediculous.
Growler, the last thing I am is mindless. Nor am I in the business of shunning. You would have to read their literature for yourself if you want evidence. It is not hard to find. I could go into my background, profession, education and association and provide you with the reasons for the views I have expressed but it would take far too long on a site like this. And yes, I know that ‘our’ party has always had Christians – but not many of those would fit the fundamentalist mold that are the bedrock of Family First.
1111
Abbott??? must have had a brain explosion there!!! Meant Nelson of course, although Abbott would probably better in WA
GG
I would distinguish between FF supporters – who are probably decent people with similar social objectives to Labor – and those political operatives who seek to represent them, who I find are often cynical opportunists. It is the latter I wouldn’t trust again. I have nothing against families – it is bringing particular religeous beliefs overtly into politics I object to. That already betrays some of the fundamental principles on which liberal democracies were founded on. People should be free to practice whatever religeon they believe, but it should not become a political force. That is a recipe for deeply divided nations.
So are we saying FF membership is basically non mainstream Christian or not ??
FF seem to want to reside far closer to the private sector than a social democratic perspective would like in a charity-fundraising org.-business with ethically dubious financial systems. I can see definite tensions there from the off.
I’m with you,FG 1128. Those who are interested in reading some of their literature,try “The late,great planet Earth” -terrifying!
Oh Cmon it’s not a smirk she’s just happy with her role and how many openings Julia Gillard is giving her to take her to town.
on the 7th & 8th august both Howard and Costello SEPERATELY had one on one
meetings with representatives of the Exclusive Bretheren AND Hillsong
so presume there are organized votes for them somewhere ? ….in FF ???
GG says “I don’t regard FF as an enemy of the ALP.”
Which universe are you from son? You should see the behaviour of FFs at booths – abusing anyone not taking their HTVs and not talking to anyone but the Lib workers. They make the CDP look moderate.
Albert, while i agree with your attack on FF, the Greens are just as bad they yelled abuse at us and only talked with the ALP workers.
The Greens are as extreme left as the FF are extreme right.
FG,
I always avoid words like fundamentalist. Have you ever noticed whenever someone’s religion is used in public they are a “devout” Catholic or like.
I just take people as they come. Don’t rely on written material. Otherwise the Bible would be the description of how we all live. Yeah sure!
They are people and they vote. How do Labor win them over is the more important question?
1136
Albert Ross Says:
December 6th, 2007 at 11:12 pm
GG says “I don’t regard FF as an enemy of the ALP.”
are they the DLP in disguise or a more extreme Christian grouping
The rodent is 3011 behind and there are no more than 1800 max to be counted.
Is he now adding bad manners to lying and hypocrisy (and all the other ones)?
Howard says ‘he is coming back in the count…don’t you believe him ?
The FF person at my booth asked for a “Kev07″ t-shirt.
OK Glen, how about listing 3 ‘openings’ from Julia?
Sorry, 2011. Question stands.
1137 [Albert, while i agree with your attack on FF, the Greens are just as bad they yelled abuse at us and only talked with the ALP workers.
The Greens are as extreme left as the FF are extreme right.]
Glen, I am stunned,horrified, and shocked that people would have this reaction to a saint like you.
Glen @ 1137,
Cannot believe this, but actually agree with you. I actually found the FF guys on my booth very civil and nice. the Greens on the other hand, were quite ratty!
No such thing as a sterotype.
can Labor win the FF but not make the mistake of not preferencing Greens first ???
The Liberals have made a poor choice – looks like many years in the wilderness.
More info here – anybody know anything about this blog: http://www.newpolitics.com.au
Trying to find out, but nobody knows.
Socrates,
Its an interesting question whether the passing of the years makes people more inclinded to vote conservate or if its just a hang-over from the post war years that is slowly fading.
If its the later then the ALP has a steady demographic swing towards it for quite some time.
1148
Johnson Says:
December 6th, 2007 at 11:18 pm
The Liberals have made a poor choice -
Ron:
I think there current choice GUARANTEES Turnbull will face Rudd in 2010
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