The standout finding of a very interesting post-election Newspoll survey of 1125 voters is a question on preferred Liberal leader: 34 per cent responded for Turnbull, just 18 per cent for Nelson and 14 per cent for Julie Bishop, with the optimistic Tony Abbott on 9 per cent. Rudd predictably is streets ahead of Brendan Nelson as preferred prime minister, leading 61 per cent to 14 per cent (91 per cent to 1 per cent among Labor voters).
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: Turnbull 34, Nelson 18
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1,259 Comments
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The Doc looks like he has aged 10 years already.
1149
Work to rule Says:
Ron thinks its a statistic fact that people become more resistant to change as they get older and the Liberals ARE the Party who rarely offer any change…just bribes
I thought the Hypnotoad did OK on lateline. I think her sound-bite writers need to give her some extra material – she only had three lines and they were getting theadbare towards then end.
GG while we were friendly with the FF people at our booth they would also jibe us on certain issues, they’ll go after anybody if it suits them but from what i saw the FF people seemed very nice.
Work to Rule
I don’t know but am optimistic. From what I have read (and certainly personal observation) the majority of people don’t change their vote for most of their lives. I gather the true swinging voters represent less than 1/3 of the total. Its not necessarily a good thing for democracy, but I agree should help Labor in this case.
1151 [The Doc looks like he has aged 10 years already.]
He has to have the worst job in Australia and it can only get worse from here.
1151 @ Red Wombat,
It might be because three marriages generates three mothers in law.,
Greensborough Growler
Normally would agree with you but having had experience of this in my family for almost 30 years, I can assure you the ones who don’t believe are the ones shunned.
1153
Work to rule – that was only because Tony Jones asked her a dozen questions on ministerial accountability what else was she suppose to say?
1154 It is a prerequisite for conartists to be nice otherwise they couldn’t ply their trade, could they?
1/2 Nelson brought back Bromwyn Bishop…why not Iron Bar Tuckey ?
There were many ALP supporters at the booths that were very nervous about a revisited 2004 – i.e. predicted to win a few weeks out, but ending up loser. But I came across a lot of research (qualitative, quantitative, statistical, Textor/Crosby, etc) that suggested that the possibility of a Coalition victory was about 2 per cent – Stephen Smith on the night seemed to know this – predicting at around 6.30 on election night, a Labor gain of about 22 seats.
GG – The term ‘Fundamentalist” was applied by the conservative Christians to themselves in the early 1900’s at what was known as the Niagera Conference. The conference started a movement among conservative evangelicals to define what they believed. The whole thing was a reaction to so called theological liberalism led by Bultmann, Graf & Wellhausen and others who challenged the traditional views of Jesus and the divine inspiration of the Bible. The self titled fundamentalists met to define what they believed and set them out as a series of principles. These principles were called ‘The Fundamentals” and included:
1. The Bible is wholly inspired by God and is the absolute rule we all must live by.
2. God created the universe in a literal 6 days.
3. Man sinned and fell away from God.
4. Jesus died to pay the price for man’s sin
5. Only by faith is Jesus can man be saved from a literal hell
etc etc etc
The point being that these folk have never voted Labor and never will. Labor’s commitment to tolerance of different religious views, sexual orientation, etc is anathema to them and many genuinely believe that Labor is anti-God.
GG
I agree that the FF people are generally nice people, but I won’t try to sugar coat it – I think they are mis-guided. I say again, mixing religeon overtly into politics is dangerous, and contrary to our principles. My mother described stories of the protestant/catholic divisions when she was young and they were not happy days.
1163
Ferny Grover – dont worry those people are a dying breed.
ViggoP: Howard is 2311 behind on TPP with around 1645 ballots to be counted.
Another victory for the ALP on the back of 4,769 GRN preferences I dare say. FF’s 286 votes are not much help to the old man.
Socrates I agree , there is no place for religion to determine votes which is the sorry track the USA has gone down
hence I hope FF disappears
1165 [Ferny Grover - dont worry those people are a dying breed.]
Or more correctly they preference a dying breed.
I am appalled, outraged and totally indignant and disgruntled… why are there no Tasmanian HoR members in the Shadow Ministry??? This outright, blatant marginalisation of Tasmanian interests is indicative of the arrogance and priggishness of the new Nelson Opposition. Totally out of touch.
Is Howard hoping that if he does not concede Bennelong , no one will notice he is the PM who lost his own seat !
Soco “mixing religion overtly into politics is dangerous”
You can say that again. I lived in N. Ireland for a while. One question you didn’t want to be asked while out for a stroll was “what religion are you” as a wrong answer was sometimes the last thing you would utter.
1169
stuart – What about Eric Abetz i thought he was a Tasmanian?
Megan,
I empathise with your pain.
However, this discussion is about how all Australians, regardless of faith, creed or race participate in the political process.
I personally do not excuse bad behaviour, but everyone votes for the government of their choice. The job of any competent political party is to maximise the vote for them.
My point to date is that many on the Labor side shun/reject/ridicule people of Christian belief. FF is but an example.
FG
I’d agree with all of that but go further – it isn’t just a Labor thing. The founders of Liberalism would turn in their graves at the thought of a “Liberal” party doing deals with an overtly religeous party.
And consider the consequences of this – if you say a fundamentalist christian party is OK, then is a fundamentalist moslem one OK too? Or is our religeon better than theirs? I say again, this is dangerous territory, and we shouldn’t pander to these people.
FRAUD IS IN THE AIR IN BENNELONG:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-105.htm
Postal Envelopes Issued 5,164
Postal Envelopes Received 6,144
So they recieved 1000 more postal vote envelopes back then were issued.
INTERESTING!
1169 I think that they have excised all of Australia from the map barring Western Australia since the election.
FF are devious….no where in the TV or other advertising do they mention their strong Christian membership base
Has Howard moved out of Kirribilli yet?
LaborVoter Says:
December 6th, 2007 at 11:35 pm
FRAUD IS IN THE AIR IN BENNELONG:
No No no Johnnie said the extra postals were printed off by Janette
@ 1170 Ron Brown Says:
I don’t think anyone gives a rats any more. Michael Peschart of he BBC was on a panel on ABC Local Sydney afternoon and said itthe mood he is detecting is that it is like Rudd has been PM forever and that people are so over Howard already.
1125 & 1149
Work to rule, Socrates,
It is interesting consider how demographic change may (or may not) change voting patterns. A single large issue like the 1990 recession might have permanently swung a percentage of votes away from labor for example, but that seems to have been very heavily diluted by now. There are possibly other similar issues in the past that swung a group of voters one way or the other also? Will an issue
I’m not sure that a population will necessarily get more ‘conservative’ (or less) as it ages though, and even if we did, I’m sure that political parties will adjust. Japan and many European countries have populations that are a bit more ‘aged’ than us – I wonder if there is any emerging trend from their experiences?
cheers,
Howard has moved in with Pru Goward,Jacky Kelly is out of favour.
LaborVoter,
According to Antony what we see on our screens is not necessarily all the AEC has.
Megan
I’d be happy if they gave Howard four weeks notice from election night and then took market rental for Kirribilli out of his payout. That would get the rodent scurrying, or conversely save we taxpayers quite a bundle
Just to be serious for a moment (from the joy of winning & the rodent’s seat loss)
The Head of the Uniting Church said (when responding to Howard/Costello each having personal meetings with the Bretheren & Hillsong)
that he had NEVER had one on one meetings with Howard or Costello
There is the point
Political Partys should not be soliciting block votes from any religious organization
It is a dangerous course for both Labor and Liberal partys
Hey,Ron you had a break yet?
Well I’m certainly not a fan of FF.
But there is a difference between the party, its foot soldiers, and those that vote for the party.
And of the latter, many second preference the ALP, more than you might expect.
I don’t have the exact numbers, I reckon some would be able to get exact numbers, but I think its in the vicinity of about 40%.
Which, if I’m in the ballpark, is a little surprising.
Maybe because ‘family’ is such a nice appealing word and who doesn’t want cheaper petrol pices?
More like 20-30% like our preferences from the Greens fred.
Yes, agree with those principles,GG.
It is the sneaky way both Ex.Breth and AOG hid behind Family First ( I even voted for Fielding taking him on face value.)
As a Catholic, I am appalled by Abbott for following church teachings as opposed to representing his constituents’ views(but at least we know where he is coming from when we vote)
However FF campaigned on family values,etc and I for one was conned and was furious when I realised it was a front.
Glen: A dying breed? Have you seen Hillsong lately?? Trust me, these guys are seriously cashed up and looking to influence the political process in much the same way as the Moral Majority has done in the US.
GG don’t misunderstand – Christianity includes a wide diversity of views and practices. Family First is supported by a very narrow, ultra conservative right wing coalition including pentecostals and many brethren, baptist, and other evangelical church members.
Fred
I agree and don’t think FF voter’s individual preferencing is surprising. Many people who care about families should be concerned about issues like health and education which favor Labor. I have no problem with Labor appealing to these people with reasonable policies. But not the party bosses, who are both ruthless players of the political game, and clearly anti-Labor.
Glen,
Ever the pedant. But, Fred Makes the point well. FF and other Christians need roads, schools, health care and the like. The trick is to present your Party as the best for delivering these services.
1185
Oh, and the fact that Bush belongs to this lot wouldn’t have had any influence would it?
1163
Ferny Grover – dont worry those people are a dying breed.
Glen, you’re misguided (again). Fundamentalist groups prey on the poor and the ill-educated and exploit them for political ends. In the US, fundamentalist groups influence political processes by stepping in where the Federal govt steps out — providing support to struggling families. Then they exercise their influence to make sure these families vote for the *right* candidates. Fundamentalist groups are steadily increasing in numbers and influence in Australia as well, exploiting the fact that many people are fearful for the future.
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseStateTcpFlow-12246-NAT.htm
If I interpret the above 2004 results correctly about 30-35% of FF votes flow to the ALP.
Religion is the source of most of the evil and misery on the planet.
Some of my friends who are religious, are really decent people, but I really think it’s despite not because.
“Imagine there’s no heaven.”
Amen!
1194,Hopefully a more compassionate Government will stop those fears and their future will be more secure.
GG
John Ashcroft the former US Attorney General was one of them.
Article illustrates my concern.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/1120440.stm
Mmmmmmh. Apart from looking at you.
What the Papers Say.
Telstra rejects Kevin’s national broadband network, Sol tells Oz. WT?
Megan,
Was one of what?
Ashcroft is a man who overcame whatever prejudice against his beliefs to become Attorney General of the USA?
How do you explain Bill Clinton?
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