On election night and the following day, the best bet seemed to be that Labor would emerge with between 86 and 88 seats. After that, Labor watched leads disappear in one seat after another. Liberal candidates took the lead in McEwen and La Trobe on the Monday after polling day, followed by Dickson and Swan on Tuesday, Herbert on Friday and Bowman on Wednesday of this week. Corangamite, Flynn and Robertson were also on the critical list at various stages after looking secure for Labor on election night: Robertson arguably still remains there. In Solomon, Labor’s Damian Hale watched nervously as his 860-vote lead on booth votes was whittled down to 89 on Wednesday, before he was saved by a late rally yesterday that widened the gap to 194. The entirely one-way nature of this traffic raises the question of what has happened and why. Here at least I will limit myself to the first half of the equation.
The first table shows the size of the swings to Labor for each type of vote in all seats which look to have margins of less than 1 per cent, barring the new seat of Flynn where any swing calculations would be hypothetical (an unfortunate omission as it would have cut the Labor swing on postals still further). Provisionals are excepted because too many of them are still to be counted, and they are few in number in any case. The outstanding feature is the Coalition’s strong performance on postal votes, which cost Labor dearly in McEwen, Dickson, Herbert and La Trobe. I read one newspaper report (I can’t remember where) suggesting this was because most postal votes were cast before the Lindsay pamphlet scandal broke, but the pattern would surely have been reflected in pre-polls if this was the case.
| Ordinary | Absent | Pre-Poll | Postal | Total | |
| Corangamite | 6.43 | 7.42 | 6.20 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| Solomon | 3.06 | 1.87 | 4.77 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| Robertson | 7.35 | 7.00 | 6.51 | 6.14 | 7.06 |
| McEwen | 6.19 | 9.44 | 8.78 | 4.21 | 6.38 |
| Bowman | 9.17 | 8.34 | 9.95 | 9.36 | 9.09 |
| Dickson | 9.30 | 8.69 | 8.07 | 6.13 | 8.99 |
| Herbert | 6.18 | 2.41 | 8.21 | 1.86 | 5.92 |
| Swan | -0.08 | -2.81 | 1.21 | 0.61 | -0.32 |
| La Trobe | 5.78 | 6.20 | 6.05 | 0.58 | 5.31 |
| Macarthur | 11.04 | 8.63 | 8.51 | 11.29 | 10.58 |
| TOTAL | 6.65 | 6.15 | 6.79 | 4.57 | 6.39 |
The second table shows the number of votes cast for each type over the past three elections. Here as elsewhere it must be remembered that a small number of 2007 votes still remain to be counted. It can be seen that this election has maintained a trend of sharply increasing numbers of postal votes, exacerbating the impact of the Coalition’s strong performance, along with the more neutral pre-polls.
| 2007 | 2004 | 2001 | ||
| Provisional | 167,167 1.32 |
180,878 1.46 |
165,238 1.37 |
|
| Absent | 856,407 6.75 |
853,571 6.91 |
851,945 7.07 |
|
| Pre-Poll | 1,105,948 8.72 |
754,098 6.10 |
610,107 5.06 |
|
| Postal | 820,946 6.47 |
660,330 5.34 |
516,458 4.28 |
|
| Turnout | 12,681,332 92.94 |
12,354,983 94.32 |
12,054,664 94.85 |
The final point to note is how lucky the Coalition has been. Present indications suggest it will win five of seven seats determined by margins of less than 0.3 per cent. Assuming no further changes, the bottom end of the Mackerras pendulum will look as follows:
| Corangamite | 0.8 | ||
| 0.7 | Macarthur | ||
| 0.5 | La Trobe | ||
| Flynn | 0.3 | ||
| Solomon | 0.2 | 0.2 | Swan Herbert |
| Robertson | 0.1 | 0.1 | Dickson |
| 0.0 | Bowman McEwen |
Elsewhere, the chances of a National Party boilover in O’Connor have been reduced as the slowly progressing late count has widened the gap between Labor and the Nationals from 2.08 per cent to 2.70 per cent. It will take an extremely high level of obedience to the how-to-vote card from Greens voters if that gap is to be closed, which seems an unlikely prospect in a sparsely populated electorate where the party would have had a hard time finding volunteers to cover each of the booths. Any vague chance that independent Gavin Priestley might win Calare has probably been laid to rest by late counting which has increased Nationals candidate John Cobb (formerly member for Parkes) from 47.71 per cent to 48.47 per cent, close enough to an absolute majority that the question of who comes second out of Priestley and Labor is probably academic. In the Victorian Senate, the Greens’ hopes rested on what would have been an out-of-character boost from declaration votes, which have in fact reduced their vote from 10.1 per cent to 9.7 per cent. The Labor vote has also faded enough that third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan has overtaken Labor’s number three David Feeney, so that Ryan looks likely to take the fifth seat and Feeney the sixth. Greens candidate Richard di Natale is 1.67 per cent behind Feeney after preferences CORRECTION: I wasn’t factoring in the Liberal surplus, which actually makes the gap more like 0.9 per cent.
UPDATE: One other thing – it is clear that dramatically fewer provisional votes are being allowed through this year. In 2004, any given electorate ended up with about 400 to 600 provisional votes counted. This time it’s more like 100 to 200. I suspect the answer to this mystery lies somewhere in the Electoral and Referendum (Electoral Integrity and Other Measures) Act. Can any wise heads out there point me in the right direction?
UPDATE 2: Comments respondents note that provisional voters must now show photo ID either at the booth or by emailing or faxing a copy to the AEC in the following week. Peter Brent: “Presumably the number of people who took ID to the AEC in the next week was about zero”. Grace Pettigrew: “Many voters who are likely to need a provisional vote do not carry ID around with them (aboriginal voters, the homeless, for example) are also most likely not to vote for the Coalition”. Adam Carr also takes issue with my description of O’Connor as “sparsely populated”: I would argue that this is sort of accurate, but Carr says the real point is that O’Connor is “the most agricultural seat in Australia, where most people live in or near small farming towns”, and consequently has “more booths than any other seat”.
627 Comments
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Glen, I take your point about Belinda Neal LOL
As for the others, let’s see how they go as MPs before we start trashing them
James Bidgood in particular has a rather impressive resume – finance director etc.
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Progressive – unless you have any proof of that slur i suggest you rethink your line of attack.
94
!
ViggoP – yeah i have and it is looking at lot better than it was on election night
FG – i got my prediction wrong too i thought the Tories would get 78 seats alas i was 13 out. Sure i agree the Tories need a big rethink but i don’t think we should turn away from everything Howard did, while not all of it was perfect alot of it was good for the country. I could agree to scrapping workchoices providing that AWAs were kept and unfair dismissals were not a part of our IR system.
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Progressive – chances are she’ll lose her seat in 2010 providing the Tories stand a half decent candidate.
I’m glad to see the end of Jim Lloyd, ex-minister for territories. Seemed to think that the central basin of Lake Burley Griffin here in Canberra should be his own private jet ski playground. The hide of the man!
Yohoho at 78: well said, and I agree with you about the schools closures, as many canberrans did (quietly) at the time.
You might be right about the 2004 “high water” mark for Labor, but on the other hand, it should be acknowledged that was achieved while the Howard Government had its boot firmly planted on the neck of the ACT…through the National Capital Authority in particular, which seems determined to turn the national capital into just another big country town…and the repeated overturning of assembly legislation by the GG on Howard’s orders…and the succession of plug-ugly Territories Ministers like Wilson Tuckey and Jim Lloyd…
What might be achieved with a more friendly federal government? We shall see.
Oh and BTW, its still Stefaniak I think, for the moment. Jacqui Burke stuffed up her recent leadership bid by sneering at Minister Katie Gallagher for bringing her baby to work, and then had to back-peddle fast as women all over the country dumped on her, it was not a good look…
For the 2nd time it’s Lemming(the little critters that just follow) not Laming. He will be leading the next election to oblivion. Glen it will be 100+ at the next ellection. I predicted 80 for this onwe and i was plecantley suprised with the pick up of Deakin 9as i helped out), coorangimite and of course Bennelong.
Australians are reluctant to change as a whole especially when the economy is doing reasonably (auto pilot of course). Once they do the floodgates will open and the coalition will be severley punished next election. Especially with the locum running the ship.
I remember when Kate Carnel and Trevor Kaine would not even speak to each other – that was when she was Chief Minister and he was Deputy.
Ah the good old days.
Always amazed that some people support the sacking of people for no reason or bad reasons.
So if you wont play around with the boss – out [just hope that you are not in financial difficulty or you might have to play the prostitute to the boss]
So if the boss doesn’t like that women/men prefer you – out
So if your footy team beats the boss team – out
So if you have wrong politicis, religion, friends etc – out
So how could anyone plan for the future, borrow for home, car or have kids etc when they could be sacked at the drop of the hat for no reason and for unfair reasons. THATS OK say the hard-right-wing Howard supporters.
You don’t want to have to make bussiness be only able to sack people for real reasons do you? Is this still Australia?
Glen, I think the electorate generally gets it right (my two exceptions being 1980 and 2001 – but then I’m biased) as governments do get tired and a change is healthy for democracy.
I had many concerns about the Howard government. Chiefly in my mind was their disregard for the rule of law and for human rights. The children overboard, detention centre fiascos, Hicks and Haneef cases were symptomatic of a deeper contempt was justice and civil liberties that distressed me greatly. It reached the point where the government of one of the world’s oldest democracies had itself become a threat to democratic principles. AWB and the refusal to accept responsibility was just another example of a government that no longer had any moral authority to govern.
These are the things (along with WorkChoices etc) that the Conservatives need to think long and hard about as they are foundational to the principles our society is based upon.
so it’s not landslide? not annihilate?
how many seats should Howard and Co lose would be categorised as landslide? as annihilate?
Losing his own Bennelong seat is so hummiliating / ashame to Howard though.
It’s like electorates breaking eggs on Howard’ face.
yeehaaaa!
McKewen down to 22 votes!
Following my 105 comment: And here (in my observation) is a major difference between Labor and Coalition supporters. If a Labor government went down the Haneef/Hicks/Children overboard etc road then its own supporters would openly castigate them. Coalition supporters generally seem unable to focus on the big democratic picture; unwilling to see the threats to our system of justice, and blindly support whatever dangerous path their government chooses to take.
Agree with Grace P. @75 – Libs in the ACT, lightweight and always fighting among themselves (sound familiar?). Stanhope Labor has taken some hard decisions in the interests of the Territory as a whole, which has upset some special interest groups who are particularly uptight because they realise they have nowhere else to turn (certainly not to the Libs). Stanhope himself perhaps not the best media performer, but a hard worker with high principles and periodically the victim of vicious personal attacks by assorted nasty pieces of work and others with a chip on their shoulder (perhaps a disproportionate number of the latter here in the ACT – seem to be mainly male, ex professionals or pseudo professionals who have taken or have been forced into early retirement, think they know everything and have nothing better to do but gripe – hey, that also sounds familiar – perhaps I should take another look in the mirror). Next ACT election will be a test of the maturity of the ACT electorate.
Centaur_007 #22,
If Carpenter proves that he really is serious at cracking-down on corruption in WA, then I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him re-elected. Remember, he does have a lot of seats on a lot of margins. Also, the benefits from the Mandurah line should guarantee a swag of South Metro seats, too. My prediction is that he’ll probably be returned with a swing against him and a loss of seats.
It doesn’t help the Libs that they don’t have even the prospect of an electable leader. Omodei is ridiculous, and Birney and Buswell both carry too much baggage.
It’s McEwen and there aren’t many votes left to count, Fran should hold it in a squeaker!
25% of the Liberal party’s third Senate candidates the comes from minor parties who represent 10 percent of th number of votes received.
Contrary to the misleading impression provided by the ABC calculator. Under the current Senate Counting rules the 10% of veterans who represent 25% of the Liberal candidates vote will be devalued and distributed at a fraction of their proportional value. Instead of carrying a transfer value of 25% of the surplus hey will be revalued down to 10%. Meanwhile the Liberal party ticket vote which represents 75% of the overall surplus will increase in value and be transferred out at 90% of the surplus value.
This situation might not eventuate as the ALP will most likely secure a third Senate position in Victoria before the Liberal surplus is distributed.
There is something wrong when 25% of the value of a vote is transferred at 10% far less then their true value.. the problem lies in the unjust formula used by the AEC in calculating the surplus transfer value. Under the AEC formula the surplus value is divided by the number of ballot papers and not the value of the vote.
the ticket vote representing 90% of the number of ballot papers only holds 75% of the value of the candidates support is increased in value and carries 90% of any surplus. 25% of the value allocated to 10% of the ballot papers are devalued accordingly. Is this fair. Is it proportional. Answer No.
It is a denial of the one vote one value system. if the Victorian senate come down to the distribution of Liberal preferences then the Greens would be the benefactor is this distortion in the disporpotionate value of the vote.
IT MUST BE FIXED… The system as it stands is designed to support a manual count. It is outdated and unjust.
With computerised counting the surplus transfer value should be based on the value of the vote (Not the number of ballot papers) remainders should remain with the vote and there should be on transaction per candidate. Fair proportional and supports the one vote one value principle.
Fran Bailey got dropped from Nelson’s shadow ministry, probably with good reason. Assuming she holds on to McEwen, she’ll need all her time to defend a super marginal seat in the next 3 years.
#99 –
“my fear is that Rudd will play it very conservatively so as not to threaten his very small margin”
But he promised so very, very much…
McEwen is going to a recount. Surely. 949 provisional ballots rejected? Is that a lot? It sounds like it.
117 – the same reason why Laming didn’t get a thing too probably Progressive.
Well, if we’re going to expose our poor predictive abilities, then I should
mention the 103 seats that I thought would have ALP bottoms on them by now.
I was very wrong. In the order of 20 seats wrong.
And the worst thing is that I’ve used up the last of the Tom Burns’ Patented
Extra-Sour Lemons that I’d stocked up on, and I still can’t get the smile off
my face.
At 104: “I’m glad to see the end of Jim Lloyd, ex-minister for territories. Seemed to think that the central basin of Lake Burley Griffin here in Canberra should be his own private jet ski playground. The hide of the man!”
Could not agree more ViggoP. I cut out that photo of dimwit Jim Lloyd, getting all noisy and smelly on our beautiful placid lake, and stuck it on my dart board.
Howard was quite deliberate with his choice of red-neck philistine Territories Ministers. John and Janette not only refused to live in left-leaning Canberra, they did their very best to grind our noses into the dust for a decade.
Cry Freedom!
Steven Kaye I suggest that the 22 very marginal coalition seat members start putting the feelers out for new jobs in 2011. it’s not really that long a time. they could atleast get the ball rolling updating their cv’s etc.
The thing is that Jim Lloyd was absolutely confident of retaining his seat on election day. Told me that we “ALP” would have to put up with him for another 3 years because he didnt detect any so called quantum shifts. I think he either hiding his worries he would have been shocked on the night.
Fran will be gone within twelve months. Given her age, she is unlikely to see Ministerial duty again. As a Polly’s super is based on salary over the last three years, then everyday she stays she will be losing money.
Still up to three hundred possible postals to be counted. Today is the cut off. There will be a recount etc. Result won’t be decided till Monday.
Too,too close to call.
Cartoon for Laming and Bailey
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,5787321,00.jpg
Nicola is off to a good start:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/07/2112790.htm?section=justin
Nice swing and connect; now let’s see the follow-through.
“If Carpenter proves that he really is serious at cracking-down on corruption in WA.”
You cannot live in WA or you wouldn’t have put in the qualifier. We have amazingly strong CCC powers, that on my understanding reveals, and therefore discourages corruption that in most other States and definitely at a commonwealth level, would go unchecked. In fact the CCC has so much power even journalists were questioning it (only because those passing as journalists in WA were put under the blow torch).
But yet you say ‘if … he is really serious’.
You obviously have very little idea at all about how the factions in the Labor Party work in WA or you would just not have said if.
The only threat to Carpenter and his members is the West Australian. While I fully support a robust media as a balancing force in a democracy, the West has openly declared war on the Govt and seems prepared, consistently to fight dirty. I would say in WA the media is more of a threat to democracy than a help.
McEwen looks tighter than a gnat’s chuff.
Could still go 84.
Nice to see Tollner has gone down
Jasmine, the NSW and WA Government should be the first to go they are as incompetent as Wayne Swan and Peter Garrett. The only reason Labor would win is if the Liberals don’t put a top class person in the leadership role.
And QLD, Glen? Coalition looking good up there?
The only reason Labor will hold QLD is that the Opposition is more incompetent than the Government IMHO.
McEWEN is a cliffhanger: projected FINAL COUNT is a LABOR WIN !!!!!!!!!!
If as I believe over 3,000 ordinary votes are left : Labor wins by 38 votes
if less than 3,000 , Labor still wins by lless than 38 votes
The Absentee votes WILL deliver a cliffhanger Labor win in McEwen
anyone wish to cheer ????
PS Loving the wall to wall deal. ALP from pillar to post! Not even a local council!
Q: Has an major Australian political party ever been less relevant or successful than today’s coalition?
Discuss.
Jasmine, the CCC’s powers are not unique. The CMC here in Qld has powers roughly equivalent to the Star Chamber which is frightening.
Glen, the problem is the Liberals have no ‘top class people’ anywhere. Look at Qld….and Nelson’s front bench! My God man….Bronwyn is on there!
It’s official Ron is living in ‘Bizarro World’!
Grace Pettigrew (122), amen to that, I’m rejoicing for Canberrans on their liberation. I’m in a safe Labor seat and it’s been bad enough to live in Australia.
I agree with Ron – McEwen is trending late for an ALP win.
FG, is Carpenter top class, is Iemma top class, is Brumby top class, is Bligh top class????
Glen,
Agree with you about NSW: Morris Iemma is in complete denial.
Disagree about WA: Alan Carpenter seems to be doing the best for his state (and he’s ex-ABC, like you know that lady, I forget her name, oh yes, Maxine …).
The Liberals had all the benefits of encumbancy. They spent hundreds of millions of dollars of our money advertising their own policies – especially workchoices. and on top of that Howard spent a fortune on pork barrelling in marginal seats. Then of course there was the economy – generally conceded by all and sundry as being as strong, or stronger than it has ever been. Howard told his team several times during the year that the circumstances in which governments get thrown out were just not there and that 16 seats was an enormous buffer to overcome.
And what was the result? A huge loss of at least 23 seats (at last count) with some swings well in excess of 10%. You can call it whatever you like, but given all the circumstances, I would call it an absolute electoral thrashing.
You’re playing avoidance, Glen. The talent pool is looking very shallow down your end. But if your point is that it doesn’t take top class people to win elections (as in the case with those you mentioned) what does that say about the conservatives now entrenched losing streak in the states and territories?
52.7 – 48.3 is not a landslide Darn, a landslide would of been 54-46.
And Labor lost 2 seats in WA.
Darn well Rudd will have a buffer of just 9 for 2010.
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Ferny Grover – it says FG that we struggle when Labor starts trying to act fiscally conservative or right wing we haven’t been able to cope with this so that’s what needs to change.
At least they have flouride in the water in queensland now Glen. those toothless rednecks will just be rednecks in a generation or 2.
I think anna Bligh and brumby are top notch
Repealing “unfair dismissal” laws means that you support unfair dismissal. Is that fair?
On another topic…
I keep reading in the papers that Brendan Nelson, as Leader of the Opposition, has “the hardest job in politics”. Well, what a load of crap. Rudd seemed to cope with the job pretty well, and I suspect Nelson is happy to have it, and Turnbull unhappy not to have it.
At least, when you’re Leader of the Opposition, you have a team at your command and some staff to assist you.
In my opinion, the hardest jobs in politics are those belonging to Independent MPs and minor party Senators. They have to scrutinise every single piece of legislation, and work out which way to vote without a party whip to show them which side of the chamber to sit on. They don’t have big organisations to do their fund-raising, and to have influence (in the Senate), they need to negotiate with a range of other parties.
Leader of the Opposition pays pretty well, and there’s a big prize waiting if you can win the election.
Ron (134) What makes you think there are 3000 votes still to count? According to my information (just a friend, not inside info) 96% of the vote has already been counted. Allowing for non-voters, it seems almost inconceivable there could be that many votes still to come.
Having said that, I hope your analysis is right.
So Glen, it’s all a failure of strategy and no policy rethink or recruitment planning is necessary. Still sounds like avoidance to me.
Glen, I think you’re in for a few more electoral disappointments. With the incumbency factor working in his favour, and hopefully with a favourable economy, Rudd will utterly crush the Libs next time, just as has happened to the Libs in NSW, Vic, Qld, SA, Tas and NT. Once Labor wins, with the economy holding up, they’ve been returned in record landslides. The Libs just don’t have any good opposition policies of their own.
WA will probably be held by Labor; the Libs are awful there, and the move to one-vote-one-value in the WA lower house will mean the Libs and Nats are reduced to cat-fights for the dwindling number of safe rural seats, while Labor will have more urban safe seats of its own to get more talent up in.
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