On election night and the following day, the best bet seemed to be that Labor would emerge with between 86 and 88 seats. After that, Labor watched leads disappear in one seat after another. Liberal candidates took the lead in McEwen and La Trobe on the Monday after polling day, followed by Dickson and Swan on Tuesday, Herbert on Friday and Bowman on Wednesday of this week. Corangamite, Flynn and Robertson were also on the critical list at various stages after looking secure for Labor on election night: Robertson arguably still remains there. In Solomon, Labor’s Damian Hale watched nervously as his 860-vote lead on booth votes was whittled down to 89 on Wednesday, before he was saved by a late rally yesterday that widened the gap to 194. The entirely one-way nature of this traffic raises the question of what has happened and why. Here at least I will limit myself to the first half of the equation.
The first table shows the size of the swings to Labor for each type of vote in all seats which look to have margins of less than 1 per cent, barring the new seat of Flynn where any swing calculations would be hypothetical (an unfortunate omission as it would have cut the Labor swing on postals still further). Provisionals are excepted because too many of them are still to be counted, and they are few in number in any case. The outstanding feature is the Coalition’s strong performance on postal votes, which cost Labor dearly in McEwen, Dickson, Herbert and La Trobe. I read one newspaper report (I can’t remember where) suggesting this was because most postal votes were cast before the Lindsay pamphlet scandal broke, but the pattern would surely have been reflected in pre-polls if this was the case.
| Ordinary | Absent | Pre-Poll | Postal | Total | |
| Corangamite | 6.43 | 7.42 | 6.20 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| Solomon | 3.06 | 1.87 | 4.77 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| Robertson | 7.35 | 7.00 | 6.51 | 6.14 | 7.06 |
| McEwen | 6.19 | 9.44 | 8.78 | 4.21 | 6.38 |
| Bowman | 9.17 | 8.34 | 9.95 | 9.36 | 9.09 |
| Dickson | 9.30 | 8.69 | 8.07 | 6.13 | 8.99 |
| Herbert | 6.18 | 2.41 | 8.21 | 1.86 | 5.92 |
| Swan | -0.08 | -2.81 | 1.21 | 0.61 | -0.32 |
| La Trobe | 5.78 | 6.20 | 6.05 | 0.58 | 5.31 |
| Macarthur | 11.04 | 8.63 | 8.51 | 11.29 | 10.58 |
| TOTAL | 6.65 | 6.15 | 6.79 | 4.57 | 6.39 |
The second table shows the number of votes cast for each type over the past three elections. Here as elsewhere it must be remembered that a small number of 2007 votes still remain to be counted. It can be seen that this election has maintained a trend of sharply increasing numbers of postal votes, exacerbating the impact of the Coalition’s strong performance, along with the more neutral pre-polls.
| 2007 | 2004 | 2001 | ||
| Provisional | 167,167 1.32 |
180,878 1.46 |
165,238 1.37 |
|
| Absent | 856,407 6.75 |
853,571 6.91 |
851,945 7.07 |
|
| Pre-Poll | 1,105,948 8.72 |
754,098 6.10 |
610,107 5.06 |
|
| Postal | 820,946 6.47 |
660,330 5.34 |
516,458 4.28 |
|
| Turnout | 12,681,332 92.94 |
12,354,983 94.32 |
12,054,664 94.85 |
The final point to note is how lucky the Coalition has been. Present indications suggest it will win five of seven seats determined by margins of less than 0.3 per cent. Assuming no further changes, the bottom end of the Mackerras pendulum will look as follows:
| Corangamite | 0.8 | ||
| 0.7 | Macarthur | ||
| 0.5 | La Trobe | ||
| Flynn | 0.3 | ||
| Solomon | 0.2 | 0.2 | Swan Herbert |
| Robertson | 0.1 | 0.1 | Dickson |
| 0.0 | Bowman McEwen |
Elsewhere, the chances of a National Party boilover in O’Connor have been reduced as the slowly progressing late count has widened the gap between Labor and the Nationals from 2.08 per cent to 2.70 per cent. It will take an extremely high level of obedience to the how-to-vote card from Greens voters if that gap is to be closed, which seems an unlikely prospect in a sparsely populated electorate where the party would have had a hard time finding volunteers to cover each of the booths. Any vague chance that independent Gavin Priestley might win Calare has probably been laid to rest by late counting which has increased Nationals candidate John Cobb (formerly member for Parkes) from 47.71 per cent to 48.47 per cent, close enough to an absolute majority that the question of who comes second out of Priestley and Labor is probably academic. In the Victorian Senate, the Greens’ hopes rested on what would have been an out-of-character boost from declaration votes, which have in fact reduced their vote from 10.1 per cent to 9.7 per cent. The Labor vote has also faded enough that third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan has overtaken Labor’s number three David Feeney, so that Ryan looks likely to take the fifth seat and Feeney the sixth. Greens candidate Richard di Natale is 1.67 per cent behind Feeney after preferences CORRECTION: I wasn’t factoring in the Liberal surplus, which actually makes the gap more like 0.9 per cent.
UPDATE: One other thing – it is clear that dramatically fewer provisional votes are being allowed through this year. In 2004, any given electorate ended up with about 400 to 600 provisional votes counted. This time it’s more like 100 to 200. I suspect the answer to this mystery lies somewhere in the Electoral and Referendum (Electoral Integrity and Other Measures) Act. Can any wise heads out there point me in the right direction?
UPDATE 2: Comments respondents note that provisional voters must now show photo ID either at the booth or by emailing or faxing a copy to the AEC in the following week. Peter Brent: “Presumably the number of people who took ID to the AEC in the next week was about zero”. Grace Pettigrew: “Many voters who are likely to need a provisional vote do not carry ID around with them (aboriginal voters, the homeless, for example) are also most likely not to vote for the Coalition”. Adam Carr also takes issue with my description of O’Connor as “sparsely populated”: I would argue that this is sort of accurate, but Carr says the real point is that O’Connor is “the most agricultural seat in Australia, where most people live in or near small farming towns”, and consequently has “more booths than any other seat”.
627 Comments
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MelbCity is correct Kevin. It is explained well by Farrell and McAllister, ‘The 1983 Change in Surplus Vote Transfer Procedures for the Australian Senate and its Consequences for the Single Transferable Vote’, Australian Journal of Political Science, Vol 39 No3, Nov 2003, pp479-492. The was also a major paper on it done for the WA Electoral Commission after the 2001 state election when the procedure resulted in some votes increasing in value when distributed.
But to correct something MelbCity wrote earlier, the ABC election calculator is written exactly as specified by the Electoral Act, so includes this weighting anomoly. You can see it at the end of the count in Queensland, where the Coalition’s vote is oversampled when its surplus is distributed. Surpluses are calculated based on the using the ballot papers, not the reduced value votes.
William – you’re spot on with your description of O’Connor as “sparsely populated”.
The alternative is “barely populated”.
Even old Iron Bar doesn’t choose to populate himself there.
After last night’s lively discussion on FF and religion, the following video turned up on Crikey today.
Make sure you watch right to the end. Your jaw will drop.
http://www.crikey.com.au/video.html
I saw Mike Bailey this afternoon walk out of the Mercantile Hotel in The Rocks in Sydney looking very shabby. Must have been a long lunch. It has been a long couple of months for him I guess.
I hope the party looks after him seeing he put a bit on the line for them.
I think it is alos a lesson that celebrity candidates are always the right strategy for Labor ( I prefer my stock from other sources). The Jury is still out for me on Maxine but I hope she lives up to her promise as her margin for 2010/11 wont be a big one.
DLP @ 204,
Give us a break! Knocking off an incumbent PM as a novice candidate and you regard that as early promise.
Maxine is and will always be a Labor icon.
Don’t have to prove nothing to no one.
I think Marise Payne has also overtaken Ursula in NSW to be elected in fifth spot not sixth as it looked (on my reading anyway) earlier.
Off topic I can’t believe that in Nelson’s “new faces/new ideas/new look” shadow ministry Bronnie comes back in with Veterans Affairs and Marise Payne (who might actually fulfil some of those criteria) is the second most junior shadow parliamentary secretary. I feel sorry for veterans. Haven’t they suffered enough.
Although watching Mrs Bishop facing off against Alan Griffin will be entertaining if just for the complete contrast of their style.
GG @ 203
Unbelievable! Check out this interview with one of the church members: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Pzjj92OZwI&NR=1
207
Trawler – thats not funny that’s scary!
on message 101
GG,
An excellent drop. That reminds me, time to attack the cask.
WTF are they doing to their kids?
Before he became Commissioner, Mick Keelty was in charge of operations in Queensland. He always seemed to me a competent officer with his heart in the right place. Perhaps the politicking became too much for him. Unlike his predecessor, Mick Palmer, he probably isn’t a political animal.
Anthony Green
thank you for your update info
However the aec site for the last hour says total vote 92.57%
whereas yours for the last hour shows 93.7%
1% is a large difference ? (this 1% also occurred last night & the night before)
copied from another post.
Victorian Senate Count
To provide you with a more precise breakdown of the vote as it stands
The ALP has 2.93 Quotas
The Libs 2.77 Quotas
The Greens 0.68 Quotas.
The above votes are locked in and will not be be redistributed (Outside Chance the Liberal surplus derived later in the count will)
Others represent 0.61 of a quota
Of the 0.61 of a quota 81% of the votes are allocated ticket votes (We know where their preferences will fall)
There is a yet to be determined 11% of a quota which represents the below-the-line votes for the other minor parties… that are not allocated to the Greens, ALP or the Liberal party.
For the Greens to win a seat (They are notionally on 89% of a quota after redistribution of the ticket votes) The Greens would need 80-100% of the unallocated vote to secure a Victorian seat in the Senate
BINGO Game over… Liberals 3, ALP 3 Green 0
Ron
I just checked the AEC site it says 93.85% check your browser settings or do a shift refresh.
Sorry I was being generous.. if teh greens are notionally on 89% or a quota and there is 11% unallacted below the line votes the reens would need 100% not 80% I do not want to get the Greens hopes up to high… In theory I guess the Greens could pick up all 100% of the unallocated vote… in a far away land maybe…
From Peter Palmer’s blog:
“The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has spoken out against the tax cuts promised in during the Australian election campaign, saying they will make economic management more difficult and could prove unsustainable.”
Let’s hope Peter Garrett was correct, and they will change everything now, scrap any tax cuts in the pipeline and use the money for boosting productivity. The greedy little piggies at the trough will scream for a while but will soon see the logic of it.
Nice article in the Monthly magazine this month (Dec/Jan joint issue) about how Howard has stacked the board of the ABC over time and how, now with sanity on the horizon in terms of a Rudd Labor government, it might be fixed.
Antony, after reading that story, you and Kerry O’Brien have my sympathy
Trawler @ 207. Jeez, that is scary. And she has the same helter-skelter eyes as Julie Bishop. The amazing thing is that was on Faux News, normally they are the ones stirring up hatred on behalf of the village idiot.
McEwen at 6.05PM has a few hundred absentee votes left to count (goodness knows why!) and Fran Bailey (Lib) in front by 27.
Who wins depends completely on where they are from. “Projections” based on the general percentage in particular vote categories at this stage in the process are completely meaningless. If they are from the city end then Mitchell will walk it in. If they are from Shepparton or some other rural centre then Bailey will win. If they are from a mix of both then it is in the lap of the inhabitants of Olympus or Valhalla or Álfheimr or Miðgarðr or some such!
McEwen
Starnge that such a high nunber of votes have been rejected. Given that Postal votes are only issued if you are on the roll I can only assume they have been rejected because the voter did not sign the declarion slip., Something that I am sure will be challanged.. anythng under 100 to 150 votes will go to a recount and if the vote is tight a possible court challenge. And by the look of itr there is a numbre of issues (BNot as bad as Victoria’s electon) whihc are challengable. problem is those in power do not want to fight over the crumbs when there is no need and in times of plenty. Is the challenge worth it… And what would the likely outcome be. First step is the automatic recount… Then the scrutiny becomes interesting. This is just the warm up event.
I thought I read somewhere that the AEC has to write to the voter who has not signed the declartion form and give them time to come in and correct the oversite. The vote is received and within the time limits. I am not 100% on this point.
#203. To imagine they would be so stupid, that they would use a song written by one of the “greatest sinner” of them all, namely Michael “Whacko” Jackco.
Sory, sorry. I take it back, they are so stupid!!
GG – that video you link to @ 203 was made by the congregation of the Westboro Baptist Church of Topeka, Kansas.
Among their other accomplishments are their cancelled-at-the-last-minute plans to picket the homes of the Amish school shooting victims in October last year with signs describing them as “whores” and the like.
The ages of the victims were between 8 and 13.
Trawler figtening indeed. I find the American Baptist church to be the most scarey thing on this planet. more scary then other funda-mental-ists. It is enough to make you want to reject all religions. Thankfully this fanatical minority is a minority. I know baptists are scarey but they are not all as scarey as that I am sure (Costello does not even desrve to be tainted with teh same brush). I am sure the TV studio had fun with their exposure and hatred.
God save America. (They need saving)
Melb city @ 223
What about Scientologists
206 Emily, yes Marise Payne does appear to satisfy the criteria, one of those who should represent the future if the Libs are to have any chance of resurrecting themselves as a credible alternative. But the mere fact that good old Bronny was selected tells us that they have indeed learned nothing. What is the saying about those who don’t learn from history?
Another re religion and politics -influence in US…..
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/062907J.shtml
Emphasis on ‘end-time’ belief by Bush et al which is so frightening. Explains why they don’t care about global warming,etc.
antony 201. i am not saying tyour calculation is wrong.I do not think you shouldn have used teh terminology you have used. You should not refer to tyhe value of a candidates support as “votes” and at the same time presdent it as they have only a few votes. It gives the wrong impression. They have a million ballot papers all which are votes) but at a lessor value. It would be better if you presented the number of ballot papers and teh value to be distributed.
If you also do a notional distribution of tenLiberal surplus you will find that 10% of the number of ballot papers represents around 25% of the value of the Liberal Candidates support. If the suplus is distributed then this 25% is reduced to just 10% due to the flaw in the system. The system favours the major parties Both Labor and Lberal) disproportionally. The only reason then Greens are not complaining is that they are the potentyial benefactors. BUT it could just as well go against them.
By using the terminology you have schosen you are masking the real calculations used. A ballot papers is one vote it has a value whihc is then transfered to the candidate, This is the issue I have with your calculator. 9Aprt from the fact you can not do manual adustments and feed the input values… Again do a notional distribution of teh Liberal Parties surplus. (It will not be required, becausxe the ALP should reach qupota before the Libs surplus distribution,. But it does higthlight what I have been trying to say needs attantion and fixing.. your calculator only confuses and hides the fact. terminology needs revision.
..
How long before Bronny gets booted from Question Time – Even Hawker got the irits with her.
Do you reckon they would really be crazy enough to let the public hear and see Bronny B in the current climate, ruawake? Still, I guess Brendan N represents just about the same, freaky (sorry Alexander D., I know that’s your name) , part of the world;-)
aec on ABC radio tonight saying they’ll count about 500 declaration votes tomorrow
do not why they would not count them today
hope the 500 is a general figure aec is quoting because their web site shows 759 uncounted
Trawler,
Scarey video, but a really annoying interviewer. I would have liked to have actually listened to that lunatic’s rationale but he wanted to make the interview about him.
#
214
ruawake Says:
December 7th, 2007 at 6:33 pm
Ron
I just checked the AEC site it says 93.85% check your browser settings or do a shift refresh.
Ron says I’m using http://vtr.aec.gov.au/ shows total count 92.72%
Ruawake , have you got a different site address
(if not correct what browsers setting)
thanks
Based on the following figures(+prepolls/postals) ALP would finish behind by 12
aec you should be ashamed with McEwen figures published at 1.00pm today:
At 1.00PM today ALP 48281 LCP 48303
as of now ALP 48256 LCP 48284
WORSE STILL
At 1.00PM today Absentees counted 8428 rejections 357
as of now Absentees counted 8440 rejections 665
ie after 1.00 today , we 320 absentees “counted” of which ONLY 12 were valid
was McEwen the seat late last week that had allegedly 3000 votes ‘missing’
If Bronny has come back into Nelson’s Shadow Cabinet, it’s for one reason and one reason only -because the good Dr. knows that she still fancies herself as Australia’s first female Prime Minister and she’ll be plotting mischief on the backbench -perhaps trying to ingratiate herself with Turnbull -if he doesn’t find her a portfolio where she can be kept occupied. Yet at the same time it has to be a portfolio where she doesn’t get too much attention because goodness knows, she’s got negative publicity in every portfolio she has occupied
Does anyone remember Bronwyn’s interview after she was dropped from the Cabinet in 2001? She kept arguing that she wasn’t a spent force -all great Liberal leaders had spent time on the backbench after losing their cabinet positions.
While I’m glad it didn’t happen, part of me wonders what would have happened if Bronny had been elected Speaker in the last Parliament. Of course such musings are best left to the deepest depth of our nightmares
Bailey now up by 32, presumably on rechecks.
She was never in Cabinet. She was dropped from a minor outer portfolio after she stuffed it up. Nelson has probably had to give her something because he promised her in exchange for her vote. But she is 65 and this is her last term one would think. So she’ll just hang around until 2010 and then ride off on her broomstick.
One thing I’ve noticed, looking at Vic electorates, is that there seems to still be a lot of counting to do in the safe Labor seats, such as Melbourne, Gorton, Maribyrnong, etc. When these votes are tallied in the Senate, one would think it would help the Greens against the Libs, though I think they’re almost certainly too far behind now.
Yes, Lord D. two up on the booth vote for Bailey, and two down for Mitchell.
Ron, yes McEwen was the place where 3000 were “lost” but they were “found” again pretty quickly.
As far as the rejections go, I suspect that the earlier “rejection” figure was actualy too low, so the change may not be as dramatic as it seems.
Certainly been some strange stuff here, with very slow updates while they seemingly sorted out the declaration Vote scrutiny audits on occasion though.
Given some of the strangeness along the way, whichever way it ends up unless those 500 absentee votes fall very clearly in one direction or another, I reckon we will be in for a recount and possibly a court of disputed returns situation in McEwen.
Actually, talk about Bronwyn being placated brings to mind Nelson’s internal party political skills, which are probably reasonably good.
After all, he’s been a young (perhaps the youngest-ever?) president of the AMA, then got himself parachuted into Bradfield (traditionally the bluest-ribbon seat in Sydney) only a couple of years after he left the ALP. Then got to the ministry pretty quickly as well.
All this with the personality (in public, anyway) of a dead fish and with everyone having no idea what he thinks about anything.
Whether these back-room skills will translate into much impact as leader, I doubt.
Adam, I very much doubt that, if she survives, Bailey will even see out the term, given the “gravy train” problem that the Auditor G made so clear in McEwen in his report. Probably far less embarrassing for them to get her out of sight ASAP, even if it means losing a subsequent by-election.
Cheers
Rod
PD1981 @235,
Agree about Vets Affairs. Almost impossible to stuff up as a Shadow, and lots of worthy functions (I’m not being facetious) to attend, all important stuff, keeps you busy, but of no interest whatsoever to the media.
Can anyone tell me when is the count finally finished in lower house seats? Every time i check more votes are added. Im now less than 50 votes behind FF when i was over 200 behind last week. That must upset allot on here as they seem to be happy that FF polls well
First Preferences by Vote Type
Enrolled: 97,912 Candidate Party Ordinary Absent Provisional Pre-Poll Postal Total
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
RICHARDSON, KymPrevious Member Liberal 30,296 39.55 1,822 39.14 57 35.19 1,724 38.93 2,014 44.60 35,913 39.74
BECKER, Barry J Independent 386 0.50 42 0.90 3 1.85 38 0.86 35 0.78 504 0.56
WELLER, Bill The Greens 4,218 5.51 395 8.49 12 7.41 310 7.00 182 4.03 5,117 5.66
FOWLER, Matthew Australian Democrats 694 0.91 78 1.68 0 0.00 47 1.06 37 0.82 856 0.95
RISHWORTH, Amanda Australian Labor Party 36,137 47.17 1,934 41.55 80 49.38 1,986 44.84 2,027 44.88 42,164 46.66
BROKENSHIRE, Robert Family First Party 4,373 5.71 318 6.83 8 4.94 277 6.25 184 4.07 5,160 5.71
KUSZNIR, Alex Independent 286 0.37 32 0.69 0 0.00 30 0.68 32 0.71 380 0.42
SMITH, Lachlan Peter LDP 215 0.28 34 0.73 2 1.23 17 0.38 5 0.11 273 0.30
FORMAL 76,605 96.18 4,655 95.02 162 97.01 4,429 97.13 4,516 98.24 90,367 96.27
INFORMAL 3,039 3.82 244 4.98 5 2.99 131 2.87 81 1.76 3,500 3.73
TOTAL 79,644 84.85 4,899 5.22 167 0.18 4,560 4.86 4,597 4.90 93,867 95.87
Thanks Antony and Melb city for the further info on the Senate surplus peculiarity.
The thing i love the most is that star candidate Brokenshire could not gain more than than 0.04 percent.
Go Bill!!
Bill, let me say that for me at least every vote closer to Fantasy First you score makes me happier, though they aren’t your ultimate quarry!
Personally I’m looking forward to the day when you (or your successor if need be) are slugging it out with the Labor member for the main prize in Kingston.
I doubt that this will be as far away as many people imagine! Heck, there are signs already emerging that people are starting to realise what the real issues that matter are in today’s world.
Cheers
Rod
Bill, congratulations!
Trawler @ 207 adds great value to the discussion.
Glen @ 208 Agree. Twice in two nights! You are on target for honarary Labor Supporter status.
Work on it!
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