On election night and the following day, the best bet seemed to be that Labor would emerge with between 86 and 88 seats. After that, Labor watched leads disappear in one seat after another. Liberal candidates took the lead in McEwen and La Trobe on the Monday after polling day, followed by Dickson and Swan on Tuesday, Herbert on Friday and Bowman on Wednesday of this week. Corangamite, Flynn and Robertson were also on the critical list at various stages after looking secure for Labor on election night: Robertson arguably still remains there. In Solomon, Labor’s Damian Hale watched nervously as his 860-vote lead on booth votes was whittled down to 89 on Wednesday, before he was saved by a late rally yesterday that widened the gap to 194. The entirely one-way nature of this traffic raises the question of what has happened and why. Here at least I will limit myself to the first half of the equation.
The first table shows the size of the swings to Labor for each type of vote in all seats which look to have margins of less than 1 per cent, barring the new seat of Flynn where any swing calculations would be hypothetical (an unfortunate omission as it would have cut the Labor swing on postals still further). Provisionals are excepted because too many of them are still to be counted, and they are few in number in any case. The outstanding feature is the Coalition’s strong performance on postal votes, which cost Labor dearly in McEwen, Dickson, Herbert and La Trobe. I read one newspaper report (I can’t remember where) suggesting this was because most postal votes were cast before the Lindsay pamphlet scandal broke, but the pattern would surely have been reflected in pre-polls if this was the case.
| Ordinary | Absent | Pre-Poll | Postal | Total | |
| Corangamite | 6.43 | 7.42 | 6.20 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| Solomon | 3.06 | 1.87 | 4.77 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| Robertson | 7.35 | 7.00 | 6.51 | 6.14 | 7.06 |
| McEwen | 6.19 | 9.44 | 8.78 | 4.21 | 6.38 |
| Bowman | 9.17 | 8.34 | 9.95 | 9.36 | 9.09 |
| Dickson | 9.30 | 8.69 | 8.07 | 6.13 | 8.99 |
| Herbert | 6.18 | 2.41 | 8.21 | 1.86 | 5.92 |
| Swan | -0.08 | -2.81 | 1.21 | 0.61 | -0.32 |
| La Trobe | 5.78 | 6.20 | 6.05 | 0.58 | 5.31 |
| Macarthur | 11.04 | 8.63 | 8.51 | 11.29 | 10.58 |
| TOTAL | 6.65 | 6.15 | 6.79 | 4.57 | 6.39 |
The second table shows the number of votes cast for each type over the past three elections. Here as elsewhere it must be remembered that a small number of 2007 votes still remain to be counted. It can be seen that this election has maintained a trend of sharply increasing numbers of postal votes, exacerbating the impact of the Coalition’s strong performance, along with the more neutral pre-polls.
| 2007 | 2004 | 2001 | ||
| Provisional | 167,167 1.32 |
180,878 1.46 |
165,238 1.37 |
|
| Absent | 856,407 6.75 |
853,571 6.91 |
851,945 7.07 |
|
| Pre-Poll | 1,105,948 8.72 |
754,098 6.10 |
610,107 5.06 |
|
| Postal | 820,946 6.47 |
660,330 5.34 |
516,458 4.28 |
|
| Turnout | 12,681,332 92.94 |
12,354,983 94.32 |
12,054,664 94.85 |
The final point to note is how lucky the Coalition has been. Present indications suggest it will win five of seven seats determined by margins of less than 0.3 per cent. Assuming no further changes, the bottom end of the Mackerras pendulum will look as follows:
| Corangamite | 0.8 | ||
| 0.7 | Macarthur | ||
| 0.5 | La Trobe | ||
| Flynn | 0.3 | ||
| Solomon | 0.2 | 0.2 | Swan Herbert |
| Robertson | 0.1 | 0.1 | Dickson |
| 0.0 | Bowman McEwen |
Elsewhere, the chances of a National Party boilover in O’Connor have been reduced as the slowly progressing late count has widened the gap between Labor and the Nationals from 2.08 per cent to 2.70 per cent. It will take an extremely high level of obedience to the how-to-vote card from Greens voters if that gap is to be closed, which seems an unlikely prospect in a sparsely populated electorate where the party would have had a hard time finding volunteers to cover each of the booths. Any vague chance that independent Gavin Priestley might win Calare has probably been laid to rest by late counting which has increased Nationals candidate John Cobb (formerly member for Parkes) from 47.71 per cent to 48.47 per cent, close enough to an absolute majority that the question of who comes second out of Priestley and Labor is probably academic. In the Victorian Senate, the Greens’ hopes rested on what would have been an out-of-character boost from declaration votes, which have in fact reduced their vote from 10.1 per cent to 9.7 per cent. The Labor vote has also faded enough that third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan has overtaken Labor’s number three David Feeney, so that Ryan looks likely to take the fifth seat and Feeney the sixth. Greens candidate Richard di Natale is 1.67 per cent behind Feeney after preferences CORRECTION: I wasn’t factoring in the Liberal surplus, which actually makes the gap more like 0.9 per cent.
UPDATE: One other thing – it is clear that dramatically fewer provisional votes are being allowed through this year. In 2004, any given electorate ended up with about 400 to 600 provisional votes counted. This time it’s more like 100 to 200. I suspect the answer to this mystery lies somewhere in the Electoral and Referendum (Electoral Integrity and Other Measures) Act. Can any wise heads out there point me in the right direction?
UPDATE 2: Comments respondents note that provisional voters must now show photo ID either at the booth or by emailing or faxing a copy to the AEC in the following week. Peter Brent: “Presumably the number of people who took ID to the AEC in the next week was about zero”. Grace Pettigrew: “Many voters who are likely to need a provisional vote do not carry ID around with them (aboriginal voters, the homeless, for example) are also most likely not to vote for the Coalition”. Adam Carr also takes issue with my description of O’Connor as “sparsely populated”: I would argue that this is sort of accurate, but Carr says the real point is that O’Connor is “the most agricultural seat in Australia, where most people live in or near small farming towns”, and consequently has “more booths than any other seat”.
627 Comments
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MelbCity. I agree, but in the end, I only wrote the prototype, not the version that drives the web site. I drove the programmer mad with detailed calculation changes to ensure that there was no way you would be able to find a calculation error. In the end, there’s a couple of points where it says ‘real votes’ when it should say ‘ballot papers’. But all I can say is that it’s still more understandible than some of your typing!
Bill
I think that you must have done a good job campaigning but that is outrageous that the Greens get beaten by FF in seats in Adelaide.
Over here in my electorate in the West the Greens get close to 9% while FF are on 1%.
I had not noticed that before.
What is the explanation?
It makes it a lot harder for your Labor colleagues, you know?
Also in WA …
We are getting our first “Declared” signs put on electorates on the AEC web site.
Still no sign of preference flow info though.
I should also say, Bill, that now that McEwen (the electorate I live in, vote in and hand out HTV cards for the Greens in) has replaced Kingston as Australia’s most marginal seat (whichever way the cookie crumbles) there are things that can be learned here from the process.
Seats like ours “on the fringe” between urban and rural probably come closest to representing traditional “town and country” OZ , even though they don’t reflect the total population. We can see it in Kingston and ones like Bowman and McEwen. Voters in these places aren’t wedded to ideology. They got sick of being taken for reactive fools by Howard et al. They won’t respond well if Rudd tries the same play either, but they have moved from the redneck wasp margins to something more complex, more honest , and more important to the future.
I guess that is part of the reason why the Greens are scoring close to 9% in McEwen this time around. In seats like ours neither major party can afford to ignore such things.
Cheers
Rod
Mark Reynolds Says:
December 7th, 2007 at 9:50 pm
Bill
I think that you must have done a good job campaigning but that is outrageous that the Greens get beaten by FF in seats in Adelaide.
Over here in my electorate in the West the Greens get close to 9% while FF are on 1%.
I had not noticed that before.
What is the explanation?
It makes it a lot harder for your Labor colleagues, you know?
Kingston has a very ultra conservative population and a large grouping of AOG and similar churches
Mark writes:
that is outrageous that the Greens get beaten by FF in seats in Adelaide.
Ah! Mark, Never underestimate the religious vote in the “City of Churches”!
Fantasy First have done a lot of work on “niche marketing” there. They will never really get even close to matching the old DLP in terms of political power, but don’t be surprised if you have to bang their heads down from time to time.
In the real world, though, they will never genuinely trouble the scorer. Think back 30 years, divide their vote by half, then halve it again, and again, and you probably have a fair representation of their real share of the vote!
Well done Bill.
This was a strong election for the Greens, in about 120 seats they increased their primary vote, this whilst the ALP were driving the tories into long term oblivion.
To those who strongly suggested putting $100 on Maxine, I thank you.
Re the next election, centrebet have the ALP on $1.14 and ‘any other party’ on 4.60. Do they know something we don’t. I heard a rumour from a source that knew someone who was left in tory head office that heard the John W Rodent was considering doing a Menzies and Leading the conservatives back from oblivion.UMMMMM I’m bored already, can’t we have election every year?
Bloody hell, ftp, do you want us all to spontaneously combust? I’d like a spell of relaxed and comfortable for a little while (and smug and self-righteous as well, if that’s not too much to ask).
Found this site which is quite fun. You do a quiz and it tells you how closely your views match the 17 US Presidential candidates. And it picked me as Barack Obama so it must be right!
http://politicalquiz.net/
Greg Hunt on LL saying that we need to halt deforestation…..hmmmm….didnt the Libs approve the Tassie pulp mill.
Is anyone watching this rubbish on lateline with Graham Morris???!!!!!
Message to Morris – remove head from sand…..
Bronwyn Bishop certainly fancies herself as the first female PM, still, and good luck to her.
Bronwyn has one great achievement to her credit. She was responsible for the National Toilet Map. This is not a laughing matter, for many people are incontinent and Bronny has done them a great service.
The Transport Workers Union didn’t do Bronny a great service. They praised the National Toilet Map in their house journal, but gave no credit to Bronny. Shame TWU Shame.
The result this time was not much different to 2004 when it was FF: 4,767 (5.6%), GRN: 4,478 (5.3%).
However, given that the climate is a much greater concern for South Aussies this year, I would have expected the Greens to do better. OTOH, FF did have a higher value candidate this year. Brokenshire is a former Lib state minister.
On the subject of strange US religions, this will shock just about everybody. Follow the links to other pages as well it will curl your hair!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corn_flakes
FTP,
JWH trying to come back????!
No, non, nein, nada, nyet, …
This will not happen.
What a gosh awful LL to finish the year with. IMO it is the best current affairs on TV. I turned it off. ¡Hasta el próximo año!
LL very flat.
VT: What do the Libs have to do?
Morris: Do something every day to make the case for change.
It was a bit like someone saying we’ll win the game by scoring more points than the other team …
Diogenes. I did the survey too . It seems I’m a Democrat aswell but John Edwards is my man. Obama came 2nd!
Oh & heres something that has been posted on you tube about Rudds “swearing in”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSxoHffWiPk&sdig=1
PS contains colorful language!
So when do Jho and Hyacinth get their sorry arses out of Kirribilli? All they have to do is pack their clothes as we own the furniture!
ViggoP, what do you expect with Trioli fronting the programme. The woman is dreadful IMHO. At least she’s leaving her radio gig to pursue television interests, although that could mean she’ll take over LL full time.
Johnny Ratten says “Shhhhhh! little mices be very, very qwiet! and Kirribilli Removals won’t know we’re still here!
Be still, my beating heart! not the trioli, please. Tony Jones is a good interviewer although he doesn’t quite stick in the knife as often as he should. If we really want a change we should get someone who is really willing to cut through the crap: could Clarke and Dawe work without a script?
we are cracking open the Soviet Odessa Champagne. Celebrating the victory of Victoria’s newest Senator – David Feeney.
The ALP m with 41.8% of the formal vote, the Liberal Party with 39.7% and the Greens on 9.8% Others 8.7%
Of the 8.7% 83% are ticket votes leaving just overt 10.13% of a quota to undecided BTL votes (over 43,000) . The greens are notionally on 89% of a quota After ticket votes are allocated. They need over 100% of the undecided vote to secure a place in the Senate chamber .
The undecided BTL vote is one of the lowest on record since the introduction of above the line voting indicating a significant consolidation of the parties vote. Minor parties overall have also dropped in support
Congratulations Feeney…
Adrian says: what do you expect with Trioli fronting the programme. …. At least she’s leaving her radio gig to pursue television interests
I’m intrigued by the Sydney antipathy to Trioli. Anyone who heard her completely take apart Peter Reith on 3LO in Melbourne during the “chjildren overboard” election would have a very different view of her, I suspect.
Maybe it is just that Sydney radio carries an expectation of partisanship one way or another given Alan Jones et al. Trioli , when on radio in Vic, always seemed to me to be a consummate professional. As a former Sydneysider I can understand the joys of the northern beaches corrupting even the best, but as far as her interview tonight on LL went, it seemed to me she simply let Morris stew in his own juices. She very led him to the point where he overcooked himself to the point of complete carbonisation. For those who tuned out before the end of the interview, he never recovered!
Cheers
Rod
Antony I agree with you there.
I like the calc its reporting is great a few mods,. Open up the code and change the terminology and your there… As to the AEC distortion it will not come into play in Victoria. Feney will be elcted before the Liberal Vote is distributed. There just is not enough unallocted below the line votes for minor parties. It will be quicker and cheaper for the AEC to do a manual count then a data-entry count.
Hey Melb city
andrew’s site at ABC RIGHT NOW shows 94% counted but aec shows 92.77%
but individual seats count % on the ABC are the same % as aec
how can this be ?
Rod,
She’s a bit of a smiling (non-)assassin. I don’t think she is Maxine or Leigh standard.
In view of your comment I’ll watch it when the ABC puts it on download. They didn’t stream it tonight and SWMBO had the TV tonight.
Bye the bye, I would like to see someone like Geraldine Doogue do it for a while. No, wait, she may seem a gentle soul but I’ve heard her nail recalcitrants on radio.
OT,have you seen this?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/07/2113263.htm?section=justin
#
276
Ron Brown Says:
December 7th, 2007 at 11:46 pm
Hey Melb city
andrew’s site at ABC RIGHT NOW shows 94% counted but aec shows 92.77%
but individual seats count % on the ABC are the same % as aec
how can this be ?
Virginia Troll (sic) is really desperate to give these losers some succour, isn’t she?
For god’s sake, silly old Baird rattled off a list of things they got wrong, and the words ‘climate change’ never left his lips. (Did he omit Work Choices as well?)
Doddering idiots, the pair of them. Morris’s head is gradually disappearing down his own neck, and frankly, it won’t be a great loss. So they’ve got a thousand days to tell us we need a change? They had 11 bloody years and refused to change when poll after poll in the final year told them they were on a hiding to nothing.
Holy sheeet, batman, they’re gonna spend 1,000 days reminding us why we wanted a big change!
That’s going to work.
Does anyone know a site that shows the total number of uncounted votes per seat
??
Rod, I have listened to Trioli every morning for an hour as I walk to work, and I have not the slightest doubt in the world that she is a Liberal stooge.
From her treatment of callers who complained about Howard, to her daily interviews with Howard huggers David Speers or Malcolm Farr and her unequal treatment of Rudd, Gillard as opposed to Costello and Howard, she is so blatant it is embarrassing.
I don’t care what she did to Peter Reith 5 years ago, fr the past 2 years she’s been a one woman Liberal propoganda machine, and still is.
Viggo writes:
I don’t think she is Maxine or Leigh standard.
Well I have a soft spot for Maxine (largely because she was the first, and just about the only, person to ever interview me on a major ABC current affairs program
) , but I’d say Sales (who I have a lot of time for too) is still learning the trade, by comparison to either McKew or Trioli.
Radio shows, especially prime time ABC ones, can be tricky because of the need to balance information and entertainment, but I’d have to say that I prefer Trioli to Jones on Lateline. Less ego , but much sharper when it comes to “reading” the interviewee rather than sticking to a line decided by management beforehand.
Cheers
Rod
And a week after the Rudd government was elected, all the commentators on the program were Liberal representatives such as Kroger. The only Labor interview was a short one with ex president Warren Mundine later in the week.
You’d think after such an historic win, she’d make the effort to get someone from the new government to speak. No, it was still more Liberal propaganda even when they were no longer in power.
She really is a disgrace.
On a good night Tony jones can tear an interviewee apart
as he did this week with the US under sec of State
other times he’ll ask 2 probing questions & then the interviewee off and switch subjects like he allowed Julie Bishop to get away with NOT answering 2 questions: do you STILL support work choices ??
Off topic, but on the honeymoon and the gift that keeps on giving!
Regardless of Monday’s swearing in every time I hear the phrase ‘The Prime Minister’ I immediately get an image of the Rodent in my minds eye (11 years will do that to ya!). But then the realisation sets in, the school captain is now the boss, and it’s like the win happens all over again. Oh joy!
Ps Glen 184, you and WA can go root yourselves.
You tragic people! It’s Christmas! The election is over! Go to bed. Go out. Watch a movie. Read a book – anything. Get over it! (I booked my tickets today.)
On a different subject , I was feeling good at lunchtime as Labor was going to win McEwen by about 38 votes
with 759 absentees left of which Labor were winning 53.4% of
and only 59 pre polls & 78 postals
THEN late today the aec post a further 320 absentees ‘counted’ and horror
312 were rejected….meaning the Libs would win by 12
SEIV XI,
It’s interesting: with el roedor it was always “the Prime Minister, John Howard” now, half the time it’s “the Prime Minister” with no name.
I think I detect a certain element of pride; like the previous PM was this person JWH, but now it is “our” PM. Yes?
Liberals really do not get it but the history books WILL record that Howard was
PM for 11 years and brought in workchoices and ignored climate change and lost his seat
I doubt future school kids will be taught anything else about Howard
- what a legacy
288 Viggo, it’s all a matter of greivious ABH for me, Anybody But Howard, but I think you are on to something, hard to tell in a context such as this blog, but my ‘vibe’ is that people are more proud to utter the phrase ‘our PM’. Here’s hoping it lasts longer that a few weeks!
http://politicalquiz.net/
It rated me a hardcore Democrat. I wonder if that is a good thing.
yep Kina…..your party is a ‘goodie’ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Kina 291, I’m a Hardcore Demo too, apparently. eeewww! (note: I can’t help but imagine an x-rated Meg Lees scenario when I hear the expression ‘hardcore democrat’).
Apparently, Im a HC too. But the first three I’m supposed to vote for are Paul, Richardson and Huckabee. No way, José.
Sorry, HD: too many vinos.
The Victorian Senate vote is looking even better then first thought. Looks like there will not even be a need to data-enter any of the Below the line vote as the results of the election will be determined by the Ticket vote and primary vote alone. That’s a lot of money saved.
Adam Christmas is not celebrated until next month. January 6 to be precise.
Has anyone else noticed all the livestock being named in honour of Kev?
During the election campaign on a Vic farm a new born lamb was christened Kevin and today at Roma PM Kev was introduced to calf Kevin.
Strueth! at this rate there will be flocks and herds of Kevins running rampant all over Oz!
Wouldn’t that be great and it’d be even greater if all their farmer owners effed off the Nats and started voting Labor.
276
Ron Brown ??? Sorry I have no idea what your asking here?
the aec site shows ALL the booths counted in all 8 doubtful seats
Am I stating the obvious by saying ALL ‘ ORDINARY ‘ votes have been counted ??
(as yesterday I saw such notations on seats but later saw
more ‘ordinary’ votes counted) ?
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