On election night and the following day, the best bet seemed to be that Labor would emerge with between 86 and 88 seats. After that, Labor watched leads disappear in one seat after another. Liberal candidates took the lead in McEwen and La Trobe on the Monday after polling day, followed by Dickson and Swan on Tuesday, Herbert on Friday and Bowman on Wednesday of this week. Corangamite, Flynn and Robertson were also on the critical list at various stages after looking secure for Labor on election night: Robertson arguably still remains there. In Solomon, Labor’s Damian Hale watched nervously as his 860-vote lead on booth votes was whittled down to 89 on Wednesday, before he was saved by a late rally yesterday that widened the gap to 194. The entirely one-way nature of this traffic raises the question of what has happened and why. Here at least I will limit myself to the first half of the equation.
The first table shows the size of the swings to Labor for each type of vote in all seats which look to have margins of less than 1 per cent, barring the new seat of Flynn where any swing calculations would be hypothetical (an unfortunate omission as it would have cut the Labor swing on postals still further). Provisionals are excepted because too many of them are still to be counted, and they are few in number in any case. The outstanding feature is the Coalition’s strong performance on postal votes, which cost Labor dearly in McEwen, Dickson, Herbert and La Trobe. I read one newspaper report (I can’t remember where) suggesting this was because most postal votes were cast before the Lindsay pamphlet scandal broke, but the pattern would surely have been reflected in pre-polls if this was the case.
| Ordinary | Absent | Pre-Poll | Postal | Total | |
| Corangamite | 6.43 | 7.42 | 6.20 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| Solomon | 3.06 | 1.87 | 4.77 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| Robertson | 7.35 | 7.00 | 6.51 | 6.14 | 7.06 |
| McEwen | 6.19 | 9.44 | 8.78 | 4.21 | 6.38 |
| Bowman | 9.17 | 8.34 | 9.95 | 9.36 | 9.09 |
| Dickson | 9.30 | 8.69 | 8.07 | 6.13 | 8.99 |
| Herbert | 6.18 | 2.41 | 8.21 | 1.86 | 5.92 |
| Swan | -0.08 | -2.81 | 1.21 | 0.61 | -0.32 |
| La Trobe | 5.78 | 6.20 | 6.05 | 0.58 | 5.31 |
| Macarthur | 11.04 | 8.63 | 8.51 | 11.29 | 10.58 |
| TOTAL | 6.65 | 6.15 | 6.79 | 4.57 | 6.39 |
The second table shows the number of votes cast for each type over the past three elections. Here as elsewhere it must be remembered that a small number of 2007 votes still remain to be counted. It can be seen that this election has maintained a trend of sharply increasing numbers of postal votes, exacerbating the impact of the Coalition’s strong performance, along with the more neutral pre-polls.
| 2007 | 2004 | 2001 | ||
| Provisional | 167,167 1.32 |
180,878 1.46 |
165,238 1.37 |
|
| Absent | 856,407 6.75 |
853,571 6.91 |
851,945 7.07 |
|
| Pre-Poll | 1,105,948 8.72 |
754,098 6.10 |
610,107 5.06 |
|
| Postal | 820,946 6.47 |
660,330 5.34 |
516,458 4.28 |
|
| Turnout | 12,681,332 92.94 |
12,354,983 94.32 |
12,054,664 94.85 |
The final point to note is how lucky the Coalition has been. Present indications suggest it will win five of seven seats determined by margins of less than 0.3 per cent. Assuming no further changes, the bottom end of the Mackerras pendulum will look as follows:
| Corangamite | 0.8 | ||
| 0.7 | Macarthur | ||
| 0.5 | La Trobe | ||
| Flynn | 0.3 | ||
| Solomon | 0.2 | 0.2 | Swan Herbert |
| Robertson | 0.1 | 0.1 | Dickson |
| 0.0 | Bowman McEwen |
Elsewhere, the chances of a National Party boilover in O’Connor have been reduced as the slowly progressing late count has widened the gap between Labor and the Nationals from 2.08 per cent to 2.70 per cent. It will take an extremely high level of obedience to the how-to-vote card from Greens voters if that gap is to be closed, which seems an unlikely prospect in a sparsely populated electorate where the party would have had a hard time finding volunteers to cover each of the booths. Any vague chance that independent Gavin Priestley might win Calare has probably been laid to rest by late counting which has increased Nationals candidate John Cobb (formerly member for Parkes) from 47.71 per cent to 48.47 per cent, close enough to an absolute majority that the question of who comes second out of Priestley and Labor is probably academic. In the Victorian Senate, the Greens’ hopes rested on what would have been an out-of-character boost from declaration votes, which have in fact reduced their vote from 10.1 per cent to 9.7 per cent. The Labor vote has also faded enough that third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan has overtaken Labor’s number three David Feeney, so that Ryan looks likely to take the fifth seat and Feeney the sixth. Greens candidate Richard di Natale is 1.67 per cent behind Feeney after preferences CORRECTION: I wasn’t factoring in the Liberal surplus, which actually makes the gap more like 0.9 per cent.
UPDATE: One other thing – it is clear that dramatically fewer provisional votes are being allowed through this year. In 2004, any given electorate ended up with about 400 to 600 provisional votes counted. This time it’s more like 100 to 200. I suspect the answer to this mystery lies somewhere in the Electoral and Referendum (Electoral Integrity and Other Measures) Act. Can any wise heads out there point me in the right direction?
UPDATE 2: Comments respondents note that provisional voters must now show photo ID either at the booth or by emailing or faxing a copy to the AEC in the following week. Peter Brent: “Presumably the number of people who took ID to the AEC in the next week was about zero”. Grace Pettigrew: “Many voters who are likely to need a provisional vote do not carry ID around with them (aboriginal voters, the homeless, for example) are also most likely not to vote for the Coalition”. Adam Carr also takes issue with my description of O’Connor as “sparsely populated”: I would argue that this is sort of accurate, but Carr says the real point is that O’Connor is “the most agricultural seat in Australia, where most people live in or near small farming towns”, and consequently has “more booths than any other seat”.
627 Comments
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299
Melb city Says:
Ron says a Melbcity more precise question is in #300
Meanwhile things are afoot in Greenway. This week’s Blacktown Advocate reports:
It is understood that hundreds of Greenway electors have written to the AEC requesting that the 2004 flyer be investigated alongside the inquiry into the Lindsay pamphlet scandal.
MelbCity do you know re below
the aec site shows ALL the booths counted in all 8 doubtful seats
Am I stating the obvious by saying ALL ‘ ORDINARY ‘ votes have been counted ??
(as yesterday I saw such notations on seats but later saw
more ‘ordinary’ votes counted) ?
The AEC does a recheck of the booth results you would have to provide more information in order to know what you are refering to.
Good Heavens, William.
I did not mean you should sleep forever!
William, have you collated the number of posts to your blog between the calling of the election and the actual election date. It must run to many thousands, perhaps you can invent a new measure, the “Bowe-meter”, as a means to measure interest in the outcome of future elections
lol, what a party
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22889363-601,00.html
Oh God, 307!
And by groupie Sam Maiden, erstwhile strummer ‘for the love of the Party’!
What a rabble. Oh the humiliation. Couldn’t have happened to a more deserving group of bastards. Howard rule has ended with his party in shame and disgrace. When is the old bastard moving back to the suburbs? The house on the harbour will require through disinfecting once he’s gone – and someone will need to make sure all of the cutlery and art works are accounted for. Why Turnbull would want to be involved is beyond me. With his wealth he could do some serious good for the nation but instead he is interested in trying to blow life back into a cold corpse of a coalition.
As one of the owners I am starting to get really p***** off about this.
They’re been nothing but trouble since they moved in, very unexpectedly, nearly 12 years ago. All they’ve done since is demand expensive renovations, held wild parties for people I consider undesirables – the cops must too because they’re there very day keeping an eye on the cretins – and we’ve had not a single cent in rent from these squatters in all that time.
Its time the buggers slung their hooks. How far is it to the nearest Salvation Army homeless shelter?
Interesting that the ABC may have lifted its game, in the recent two weeks or so. Post 24/11.
Geraldine Doogue, Saturday Extra. This morning.
Guest, Judith Brett. Long time objective critical observer of the Howard Government.
Post Election topics I have noted.
All in the Mind. The sheer inhuman bastardry of the Act, handed down to Howard’s Willing, as it it affects people who would ordinarily have qualified for a Disability Pension. Described additionally their treatment under Newstart.
Rear Vision. Queensland. Under Jo Bjelke. Police State. Springboks. Street Marchers. Politicisation of a generation. Not only, Peter Beattie.
Australia Talks. Indigenous Issues. NT. Sorry. Etc.
No public concession yet from Howard on the loss of his seat. Final declaration for Bennelong probably next Wednesday so we’ll find out then if he’s prepared to do the right thing.
My guess (if true to his mean and sneaky form) is to brush it off by claiming he conceded a week and a half ago (see below).
Just get it over with. Then get over it.
Or can spineless be added to your list of qualities?
http://au.news.yahoo.com/071207/19/156z3.html
“On Wednesday, the Australian Financial Review carried a small report on page eight quoting a spokesman for Howard as saying the country’s second longest serving prime minister had conceded a week earlier in a phone call to the returning officer in Bennelong.”
Turnbull was robbed. Apparently in the Liberal Party those eligible to vote can’t and those who have lost their seat are entitled to a leadership vote. When they know that their performance has entitled them to a decade and a half of opposition what was the rush to fill a permanent position with a locum.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/liberal-partys-leadership-vote-under-cloud/2007/12/08/1196813058415.html
Alan Ramsey has a nice story spun around a booth in Fraser, Wreck Bay, where the primary vote was: Labor 37, Greens 32, Democrats 2, Independent 1, Informal 2, Liberal 0 (see http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-13745-8839.htm )
Ramsey says “Wreck Bay was the ultimate election night metaphor for John Howard’s government, his prime ministership, his party, his seat of Bennelong and his political career. How much more appropriate could it get?”
Read more at http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/brave-victory-against-media-bitchiness/2007/12/07/1196813020139.html
The Poetic symbolism of it all! Gridlock Campell’s Brisbane City Hall slowly sinking through the sewerage ridden subsoil into one of his favorite bus tunnels. All this only 96 days before the public vote for his eviction. Love the way he took the money for the new moat out of the fire safety fund. The Liberals might be a spent force in Brisbane City Council but our Gridlock Campbell is ‘a force for spending’!
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/new-moat-for-sinking-city-hall/2007/12/07/1196813020985.html
Bryce
“No public concession yet from Howard on the loss of his seat.”
The polite thing to do is to ring your opponent personally and concede, a candidate does not claim a seat until their opponent has conceded, to claim a seat before the your opponent has conceded is seen as rudeness and arrogance.
This also applies to claiming the election, Rudd did not claim victory until Howard had conceded, which has been the accepted manners for all elections.
Howard forced Maxine to claim victory in Benelong as she was to be sworn in as a parliamentary secretary.
As to why Howard refused to give Maxine the courtesy every other candidate and government has shown in past elections it may have to do with his general attitude to women and the fact that he was defeated by a woman.
But it is typical of Howards character, say what you like about Keating but he was infinitely more gracious than Howard in defeat.
Alan Ramsey’s excellent article is more notable for telling the true story of Nicole Cornes’s bravery and integrity in the face of media bitchiness.
Thank you 314 Albert Ross for the Ramsey reference and Nicole for showing up one of the worst section of the media.
William
are the ONLY votes to count for the election are Absentees , Provisionals , Pre Polls and Postals ?
I am trying to establish the status of the McEwen seat where the aec site:
shows 77 of 77 booths counted and
shows in the NON ‘ordinary vote’ aec menu 423 absentees,59 pre polls & 78 postals
I presume from the above all “ordinary votes” cast are counted ?
(meaning 3317 voters 3.17% did not vote in McEwen)
Ron,
Hopefully, this helps you.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/bailey-leads-by-22-in-cliffhanger/2007/12/07/1196813026887.html
arbie
etc
j ho is partying at kirribilli drinking the cellar dry and generally creating mayhem
this is true to form of the man and the libs in general
what a way for history to remmeber the libs drunk,lying in the bushes and general proving what an unrepresentative swill they are
maybe it is snap off a log time
In The Age this morning Tony Wright says a string of resignations by ex-ministers would be a disaster for the Opposition because they would lose the by-elections.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/tony-wright/2007/12/07/1196813015582.html
What a load of tosh. If there are by-elections in Berowra, Higgins, Mayo, Menzies, Gippsland and/or Lyne early next year, the historical precedent is that they would produce swings away from Labor, and that is what I would expect to happen again. That’s what happened when Fraser, Street, Anthony, Snedden and Killen resigned their seats after 1983. Swings towards incumbent parties at by-elections are very rare. There has only ever been one by-election at which a seat swung towards Labor when there was an incumbent Labor government – Fremantle in 1994.
Latest senate results for Victoria
First Preferences and diatributuon of known Ticket votes
Liberal ALP Green Others Total Quota
1286029 1279365 364763 47922 2978080 425441
43.183% 42.959% 12.248% 1.609%
Quotas
3.0228 3.0072 0.8574 0.1126
The above is calculated by taking the group vote of the Liberal Party, ALP and Greens and then adding the known Ticket vote of the other minor parties. What is remaining in the unapportioned BTL minor party vote. 1.609%
GG
Noticed in that article about McEwen and Bailey.
“Former prime minister John Howard rang Mr Irons on Thursday to congratulate him on being the only Liberal to dislodge a sitting Labor MP.”
Appears Howard does know how to use a phone, be good if the media put pressure on him to ring McKew and formally concede Benelong.
Bailey has held on in Mitchell. 26 votes ahead. Only 23 absentee votes left to count. 59 pre-polls and 78 postals to count.
Bummer.
Arbs
this poor excuse of a man represents all thats bad about the ideology of the libs
man=strong
woman=subservient
its rather simple and any deviation from this is moronic creed is attacked like ferals that they btruly are
case 1:the heiferman and his mysognistic comments ALL through his time as an mp
the latest being the Gillard slander. atruly bestial of a man
case 2: jho”s treatment and disdain of Mckew all the way to not having the balls and common decency to concede. a truly little little man
there is so much more but the bile is so turgid that i wont say anymore- except
Goodriddance
The above should read “Bailey has held on McEwen”, naturally.
Agree
Howard’s attitude to woman was clearly on display in his treatment of Kylie Russell and this quote says it all.
“You’d have to be thinking on the purest of dehumanised political levels to either forget or deliberately snub the man’s widow”
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/10/27/1067233083792.html
So what is it with McKew, has Howard forgotten the protocol of conceding or is he deliberately snubbing her.
He is entitled to wait until the seat is declared. I would.
When will Malcolm take the knife to Dr Nelson.I predict within 3 months.
Ron Brown (319)
The ordinary votes would all be well and truly counted by now. They are the easy ones. The ones that take all the time are the declaration votes (postals, pre-polls, absents and provisionals) because of the amount of checking and roll marking that needs to be done before they can be opened.
Charlie, according to that article there were 200-300 absentees left as well as a small number of pre-polls and postals. The McEwen % counted has only moved from 95.99 last night to 96.00, so I don’t think all those absentees have already been counted.
331
Turnbull would be better off if he bides his time on this.
I know he’s pissed off about the party vote, but it’s a matter of timing.
Best to sit back and let the responsibility of the blood- letting be on other hands.
Charlie (326)
I will be amazed if the result is not overturned in the Court of Disputed Returns.
With the ever increasing number of declaration votes these days and the greater propensity for errors in processing these type of votes, it shouldn’t be too difficult to find enough doubtful decisions to have the whole thing re-run.
Without a doubt there will be a few recounts in McEwen and it’ll go to the court of disputed returns, whether Fran Bailey or Rob Mitchell come out as the declared winner. Labor supporters better hope the absentees left to count come from the more urban parts of the electorate.
Charlie , the only change on the AEC website for McEwen this morning that I can see involves a REDUCTION in the ordinary booth vote for both Bailey and Mitchell, resulting in the 26 vote lead you mention.
According to it there remain a few hundred absentees to still be counted, and still a few Pre-Polls and Postals , too.
Cheers
Rod
Actually, I misread the declaration vote scrutiny page. Sorry guys!
@ 330 Adam Says:
That’s the spirit old boy. Keep on yelling it as the wheelie bin you occupy is upturned and emptied into the garbage truck of history.
What an interesting week!!
Turnbull appears to have realised that people who had lost their seats had voted as well two MP’s were excluded from voting.
According to the Age several former Liberal Govt MP’s may be leaving causing by-elections, and while Adam dismisses the ALP’s changes I would rather look at these four seats in question
Higgins, Gippsland, Berowa, Menzies and Mayo
Normally By-elections swing against the Govt, and apart from Higgins I couldn’t see the ALP picking up any of these seats, people may point to Burwood (Higgins) but the Liberals had a shocker of a candidate
Victoria indeed delivered an interesting result as predicted there were solid swings across Melbourne’s East and rural Victoria, the only seat that moved towards the Liberals was Kooyong.
I may be wrong but I believe the biggest swing in Victoria was in Casey with Aston not far behind.
I believe Victoria will have a redistribution before , which could mean both Lt Trobe and McEwen are notionally ALP, that’s if Fran survives, I would also expect she may retire come 2010.
I will give Nelson a tick for dropping Kevin Andrews
There’s no way Labor will win Berowra, Higgins and Mayo in byelections.
BM of Vic. Mayo. Is Lord Alex departing.. if that is true that would be great news…
332
Darn Postal vote roll marking is not that slow. A quick scan and open the emvelope is all it takes. Prepolls should already be marked off the roll.
I do not think their is a court of disputed returns (Other then the Federal Adminsitrative Court) It is way to early to consider a court challenge. First step is a recount. There is only one. Although I argue of the overall result changes there should be an additional count to confirm the last count. (Questions are still being asked about the Western Metro Count in Victoria where votes went missing between count A and Count B (The Tully Count that did not tally) and details results of the first count were not provided (SNIP: ill-advised statement deleted – PB)
Fist counts do not warrant close scrutiny but next weeks count will. The Senate will not be subjected to a recount or scrutiny. BTL Preferences will not be counted. Unless the AEC wants to spend money and play with their toys.
I recall the VEC spending thousands of dollars in counting a single member election by data-entry. A total waste of time and money. It would have been quicker and more reliable to count manually. The VEC counting system has little to desire and there is overwhelming errors in the data-entry process. They do a random sampling check where the AEC does a double entry check. The other problem with the VEC count was they refused to pre-sort the ballot papers into first preferences piles making it that much harder to scrutinise or monitor. If the AEC spends time and money undertaking a data-entry for the Victorian Senate then questions should be asked for what reason and justification. The result is decided on ATL first preferences.
Greens have nargunally incresed tehir position in the Victoriasn Senate. ( More votes from Melbourbne and inner ciuty areas added to the acount. )
No change in the result and still no need to count BTL preferences.
Liberal ALP Green Others Total Quota
1291839 1285828 370099 46253 2,994,020 427718.1429
43.147% 42.947% 12.361% 1.545%
3.020312267 3.006258587 0.865289922 0.108138971
Who is mad enough to want to lead the federal Liberal party? Its a poison chalice. I’m not a betting man but to put money on Nelson not seeing out a term as Lib leader is a “sure thing”
As for Turnbull (a so called moderate but still voted for workchoices) why would he want the leadership as the Libs are sailing into the uncharted deep waters of opposition for a long time to come. He may as well call himself “Captain Smith”
It reminds me of the ’80’s when we had the Peacock/Howard tango & in the end neither got up in that era then we had another 2 more before Howard finally made PM. So some where in the mix Tony Abbot will make the leadership as the pecking order evolves whilst the Australian public laughs at their misfortune as it is played out in the media for public folly.
This scenario is not far fetched as I reckon it would make the Qld Liberals look sophisticated! It couldn’t happen to a better bunch.
I head from Senior Liberals that Costello was going to serve out his time on the back bench… Bit much saying they will continue then when the tide turns bow out… However looking forward tio see the departure of Sir Alex. I hope the new government revokes the unjust fine imposed on victims of crime who have their watllets and passports stollen. This is just a tax on the traveller and a impost on Travel insurance.
Albert Ross, you moron, you must be the only person here too stupid to have noticed that I am an ALP member – it’s only been mentioned about a thousand times. I’m very pleased that Howard lost his seat. I was making the simple point that technically no seat is decided until the poll is declared, and that Howard is within his rights not to concede until Bennelong is declared. If he doesn’t concede at that point, then it will be time to criticise his bad manners, though such criticism will come a little oddly from an abusive grub like you.
I would not want to rush into electroinic voiting just yetr. There are way to many errors in e-voting to warrent thje expense and implementation.
We have seen the Victorian count and erros in the backend of this count.
I have to agree with Fran on one point..
QUOTE from the Age…
Ms Bailey also raised doubts about the count, saying she had not had a satisfactory explanation for why the advice on how many votes were to be counted each day kept changing.
“I am not saying there has been voter fraud but you can’t help but raise questions about the entire process,” she said.
If we do introduce a online voting system then the first step is postals and absentee votring only… BUT they must prov ide access to perefernce data files and ensure that electoral officals do no access the resulst of the e-count , unliuke in Victoria, prior to the close of the ballot. YES it is illegal to open the e-voting ballot box before the close of the poll, whichj is one of the many questions asked about the conduct of the Victorian election. following a VEC email sent to the media indicatng that VEC staff had counted the e-votes before the close of the ballot.
I don’t believe that someone of Costello’s age and prospects will spend three years of his life as a bored and frustrated backbencher. Nor will Nelson want him there as a possible source of disaffection. He should resign in the new year, and so should Ruddock and Downer, and probably Vaile, McGauran, Andrews and Hawker too. If they wait a few months until the initial gloss has gone off Rudd, all the by-elections will produce swings to the Coalition. The only real battle would be between the Nats and Libs in Lyne and Gippsland.
In an article in the Australian
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22889501-5014046,00.html
Nelson suggests one of the reasons for the coalition’s defeat was:
“because Labor outspent the Coalition by a factor of two to one, particularly on the issue of Work Choices”
Quite apart from Nelson clearly not taking into account the tax payer’s money burnt to support Work Choices – the idea the Libs were outspent is quite ridicules.
Are the any estimates floating around about the costs of each of the campaigns?
HOW can ABC site (3 hours earlier !) have 1.21 % MORE votes than the aec site ??
AEC Site:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/
94.1 % counted | Updated Sat Dec 8 11:37AM
Total Count 92.89%
ABC site (Antony Green)
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/Default.htm
this website was last published at 8/12/2007 2:31:55 PM.
COUNTED % : National 92.89
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