On election night and the following day, the best bet seemed to be that Labor would emerge with between 86 and 88 seats. After that, Labor watched leads disappear in one seat after another. Liberal candidates took the lead in McEwen and La Trobe on the Monday after polling day, followed by Dickson and Swan on Tuesday, Herbert on Friday and Bowman on Wednesday of this week. Corangamite, Flynn and Robertson were also on the critical list at various stages after looking secure for Labor on election night: Robertson arguably still remains there. In Solomon, Labor’s Damian Hale watched nervously as his 860-vote lead on booth votes was whittled down to 89 on Wednesday, before he was saved by a late rally yesterday that widened the gap to 194. The entirely one-way nature of this traffic raises the question of what has happened and why. Here at least I will limit myself to the first half of the equation.
The first table shows the size of the swings to Labor for each type of vote in all seats which look to have margins of less than 1 per cent, barring the new seat of Flynn where any swing calculations would be hypothetical (an unfortunate omission as it would have cut the Labor swing on postals still further). Provisionals are excepted because too many of them are still to be counted, and they are few in number in any case. The outstanding feature is the Coalition’s strong performance on postal votes, which cost Labor dearly in McEwen, Dickson, Herbert and La Trobe. I read one newspaper report (I can’t remember where) suggesting this was because most postal votes were cast before the Lindsay pamphlet scandal broke, but the pattern would surely have been reflected in pre-polls if this was the case.
| Ordinary | Absent | Pre-Poll | Postal | Total | |
| Corangamite | 6.43 | 7.42 | 6.20 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| Solomon | 3.06 | 1.87 | 4.77 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| Robertson | 7.35 | 7.00 | 6.51 | 6.14 | 7.06 |
| McEwen | 6.19 | 9.44 | 8.78 | 4.21 | 6.38 |
| Bowman | 9.17 | 8.34 | 9.95 | 9.36 | 9.09 |
| Dickson | 9.30 | 8.69 | 8.07 | 6.13 | 8.99 |
| Herbert | 6.18 | 2.41 | 8.21 | 1.86 | 5.92 |
| Swan | -0.08 | -2.81 | 1.21 | 0.61 | -0.32 |
| La Trobe | 5.78 | 6.20 | 6.05 | 0.58 | 5.31 |
| Macarthur | 11.04 | 8.63 | 8.51 | 11.29 | 10.58 |
| TOTAL | 6.65 | 6.15 | 6.79 | 4.57 | 6.39 |
The second table shows the number of votes cast for each type over the past three elections. Here as elsewhere it must be remembered that a small number of 2007 votes still remain to be counted. It can be seen that this election has maintained a trend of sharply increasing numbers of postal votes, exacerbating the impact of the Coalition’s strong performance, along with the more neutral pre-polls.
| 2007 | 2004 | 2001 | ||
| Provisional | 167,167 1.32 |
180,878 1.46 |
165,238 1.37 |
|
| Absent | 856,407 6.75 |
853,571 6.91 |
851,945 7.07 |
|
| Pre-Poll | 1,105,948 8.72 |
754,098 6.10 |
610,107 5.06 |
|
| Postal | 820,946 6.47 |
660,330 5.34 |
516,458 4.28 |
|
| Turnout | 12,681,332 92.94 |
12,354,983 94.32 |
12,054,664 94.85 |
The final point to note is how lucky the Coalition has been. Present indications suggest it will win five of seven seats determined by margins of less than 0.3 per cent. Assuming no further changes, the bottom end of the Mackerras pendulum will look as follows:
| Corangamite | 0.8 | ||
| 0.7 | Macarthur | ||
| 0.5 | La Trobe | ||
| Flynn | 0.3 | ||
| Solomon | 0.2 | 0.2 | Swan Herbert |
| Robertson | 0.1 | 0.1 | Dickson |
| 0.0 | Bowman McEwen |
Elsewhere, the chances of a National Party boilover in O’Connor have been reduced as the slowly progressing late count has widened the gap between Labor and the Nationals from 2.08 per cent to 2.70 per cent. It will take an extremely high level of obedience to the how-to-vote card from Greens voters if that gap is to be closed, which seems an unlikely prospect in a sparsely populated electorate where the party would have had a hard time finding volunteers to cover each of the booths. Any vague chance that independent Gavin Priestley might win Calare has probably been laid to rest by late counting which has increased Nationals candidate John Cobb (formerly member for Parkes) from 47.71 per cent to 48.47 per cent, close enough to an absolute majority that the question of who comes second out of Priestley and Labor is probably academic. In the Victorian Senate, the Greens’ hopes rested on what would have been an out-of-character boost from declaration votes, which have in fact reduced their vote from 10.1 per cent to 9.7 per cent. The Labor vote has also faded enough that third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan has overtaken Labor’s number three David Feeney, so that Ryan looks likely to take the fifth seat and Feeney the sixth. Greens candidate Richard di Natale is 1.67 per cent behind Feeney after preferences CORRECTION: I wasn’t factoring in the Liberal surplus, which actually makes the gap more like 0.9 per cent.
UPDATE: One other thing – it is clear that dramatically fewer provisional votes are being allowed through this year. In 2004, any given electorate ended up with about 400 to 600 provisional votes counted. This time it’s more like 100 to 200. I suspect the answer to this mystery lies somewhere in the Electoral and Referendum (Electoral Integrity and Other Measures) Act. Can any wise heads out there point me in the right direction?
UPDATE 2: Comments respondents note that provisional voters must now show photo ID either at the booth or by emailing or faxing a copy to the AEC in the following week. Peter Brent: “Presumably the number of people who took ID to the AEC in the next week was about zero”. Grace Pettigrew: “Many voters who are likely to need a provisional vote do not carry ID around with them (aboriginal voters, the homeless, for example) are also most likely not to vote for the Coalition”. Adam Carr also takes issue with my description of O’Connor as “sparsely populated”: I would argue that this is sort of accurate, but Carr says the real point is that O’Connor is “the most agricultural seat in Australia, where most people live in or near small farming towns”, and consequently has “more booths than any other seat”.
627 Comments
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CORRECTION
HOW can ABC site (3 hours earlier !) have 1.21 % MORE votes than the aec site ??
AEC Site:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/
94.1 % counted | Updated Sat Dec 8 11:37AM
ABC site (Antony Green)
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/Default.htm
this website was last published at 8/12/2007 2:31:55 PM.
COUNTED % : National 92.89
ALP member eh?
What do you think about the 31 billion in tax cuts?
Will it be of benefit or will it be inflationary?
Just a waste of money I reckon.
If they were serious they would lower the fuel excise or get rid of the GST on fuel.
But then again, that is a bit too much to expect from the boys club isn’t it???
Meanwhile Rome still burns…
Scaper , the REALITY is that as soon as Howard irresponsibly offered $34 billion
in tax cuts , Rudd had to copy or he would have lost the Election
Blame Howard for the stupidity
but then again when howard was last the Treasurer in 1982 he spent all the money then so there was none for the incoming Government
History repeating
Adam
I may be wrong but I interpreted Albert Ross’s “old boy” comments as being directed towards John Howard – not you.
Perhaps he would like to clarify that.
Under normal circumstances Labor couldn’t win Mayo in its wildest dreams, but I sense there may be an opportunity in a bye election if they really want it and are prepared to put in the work and some money, especially given that many here are beginning to realise that safe seats don’t attract the pork. Certainly, the area hasn’t gotten much during Downer’s time.
Parts of the seat are among the fastest growing areas in the state and probably the country, southern Queensland excepted, and the growing pains are hurting.
Mt. Barker has major traffic and parking problems and these are about to get much worse with the recent approval of 3 new retail projects. It also badly needs extra on/off ramps for the SE freeway east of the town to allow trucks from the industrial areas, and in the near future from two newly approved mines, to bypass residentual areas. The hospital needs staff doctors, and more staff generally, especially for the maternity ward which is now the only one in the hills. Stirling also has traffic and parking problems and Nairne has been trying to get pedestrian lights outside the primary school for ages. In the more rural areas the apple farmers are unhappy about fireblight being introduced by NZ apples, the dairy industry has taken a hit as have the egg/poultry producers. Lack of water is a big issue.
So find a well regarded, well known local candidate, offer assistance towards fixing the problems, make the right noises on the farm issues and with a bit of help from the increasingly dysfunctional, threadbare opposition there just could be a boilover.
Adam did not Downer come close to losing his seat to a rock star???
Side issue:
How effective and responsive is our Senate? Why is it that we have to wait until July 1 to see a change in its composition. Disaffected, voted out members of the Senate continue to sit on its benches absorbing the benefits of office Mostly world travel knowing full well that their time is limited.
Senators term of office should be pegged to the lower house. senators that lose support and are not reflected should vacate their office in the same way that members of the lower-house lose their seats. What positive contribution is to be had by allowing members of the Senate to remain in office for an additional six months.
Of the hundreds of votes ruled out of order in McEwen, a high proportion would have come from the more mobile, less established sections of the community – more than likely Labor voters. Fran Bailey should be on her way.
The big disappointment in this election is that at least one new Labor dud has been elected while several really good people have missed out – among them, George Colbran, Rod Cocks, Mia Handshin, Peter Tinley and, bravest of the brave, Nicole Cornes.
REFORM
Why can not the Constitution be changed to
1/ elected Senators take office immediately after a House of Reps election and
lose it/get re-elected on house of Reps election dates
2/ 4 year fixed House of reps
preferably on a fixed day as well
3/ Senate terms be either 4 years for all or
1/2 4 years and 1/2 8 years
4/ Postal Applications be ONLY sent from ,and posted back to, the AEC
5/ new enrollments have min 7 days from the calling of an election
Should we be lowering prices when the biggest problem we face is climate change?
It might be better to direct the tax cuts into super funds where applicable.
Ron I gave up looking at the number of votes expected long ago when I realised the AEC had no idea and I suspected that votes were still being issued or printed out the back. Its in the lap of the gods and I think the AEC has a few more things to look at before they contemplate a e-voting system and high expenditures on new toys. Fran Bailey and others have just concern at the ever changing number of votes. the same situation occurred in the Victorian Cont expect their votes went missing between count A and Count B and ten upper house did not tally with the lower house. Their record keeping was shonky to say the least. Made worst by the fact that Tully refused to provide4 details of the election count (SNIP: another ill-advised statement deleted. MC, say what you like about a certain bureaucrat on your own site, but not here – PB)
I think it is obvious to all that the AEC records are not accurate. This will undoubtedly will be raised if and when a court order is required to review the count.
My analysis of the count was seriously impeded by the fact that the information provided by the AEC was not reliable. (At least we had some information where as in Victoria Steve Tully refused to make available any information on the number of postal or pre poll votes issued prior to the election. Scrutineers need to be more assertive. the AEC and VEC thinks they are just observers.. as they watch the keyboard operators punch the keys… Believe me there is more to an effective scrutiny then just looking. information is the key. Information that all too often is denied or kept from scrutineers or the public. I am still waiting 12 months later for the Preference data for the Victorian Count… A complaint has been lodged with the parliamentary inquiry and the VEC is exempt from review by the Ombudsman (hopefully that will change soon)
Ron Brown
True, but if Rudd really wants to rule for Australians, this would surely be an alternative?
In regards to the constitution, I believe that we are mature now as a nation and we should review thus.
scaper…
Ron Brown (357): New enrolments should be allowed up to and on election day itself, as happens in the US, Canada and even Nigeria.
Phil Robins @356
Who do you reckon is the new Labor “dud”?
Outgoing NSW ALP General Secretary Arbib might not be a dud, but Bronny Bishop wiped the floor with him a few times on Skynews during the campaign. How the underwhelming Arbib went straight up the NSW HQ ladder to #1 on the ALP Senate ticket is further evidence of the internal power games which have resulted in NSW lurching from one Iemma ministerial sacking to another.
RE: Nicole Cornes from today’s SMH by Alan Ramsey:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/brave-victory-against-media-bitchiness/2007/12/07/1196813020139.html
I am amazed by the short sightedness of those like scaper @ # 351 that argue for a cut in the cost of petroleum products particularly petrol.
I too would enjoy being able to fill up my car for half the price I do now or a fall in the cost of everything I buy as it all need transport or cheaper plastics or the whole raft of things that petroleum is involved in. However, we must remember that petroleum is a limited resource and it is become more and more scarce every day.
There are some that argue that we have already passed what they describe as “peak oil”, that period in time when the production of oil must fall but even if this is incorrect we should all know that unless there ars some remarkable finds of oil soon then we are all on the downward slope to there be no oil at all. It should be realised by all that the distribution of the use of oil cannot be represented by a “bell curve” and that once we have reached “peak oil” the slid to “no oil” will be much quicker than the slow clime to “peak oil”.
Only those who have no concern for the future are arguing for a fall in the price of oil and they are demonstrating this on two fronts.
Firstly they are placing on future generations a necessary to find a replacement for petroleum in our society much earlier while they at the same time are endeavouring to consume as much of this resource as possible. The driver for this increase in consumption of petroleum is the reduction in the price of all products associated with it.
Secondly, the impact on the environment that accrues with the use of such products. The less we use petroleum products now the less will be the effect on such things as climate change.
I have to admit that the call for a cut in the price of petroleum products sound nice, with cheaper petrol and food and … well you name it. But what is being ignored is the future.
No names, no lipstick.
362
I indeed see your point, but it is an example of the concept that I was endeavouring to convey.
I’ll give you another example that could deal with our economic woes.
Let’s say…..reducing the GST so all Australians benefit.
And as for having no thought or vision for this nation…..you are greatly mistaken, sir!
Phil Robins @364
No names………no fair, mate! :>)
Melb City,
I agree re Electronic voting:
The U.S. experience has been less than satisfactory and until they have a watertight system, we should leave it alone until it is. (Indications are that Bush may not be in office if there had been a paper trail for example.)
I for one, want a system tried and tested overseas. Our tendency to reinvent the wheel,such as the joke that is public transport(especially in Sydney) gives me no comfort whatsoever.
(BTW-Why can’t we do what Japan did/does and use world’s best practice? Why do we stick to only UK and US for transport models? Hongkong had electronic ticketing for trains in 1991 and we still can’t get it right? )
I am currently researching an article on who predicted what during the campaign and who was right and who was wrong. In the course of my research I found the following comment made by me on 30 September: “If Labor wins any one of Warringah, Dawson, Wannon and Kooyong I will be the first to nominate Possum for the Nobel Prize in Psephology.” Labor did win Dawson, so I have emailed the King of Sweden nominating Possum Comitatus for the Nobel Prize in Psephology. I have not yet received a reply. (Memo Possum: I was however right about everything else.)
I have a crystal clear memory of the Dawson graphic coming up for the first time on the ABC’s coverage on election night. It was then that I knew that the ALP had definitively won.
Damn that was a good feeling.
Not only should be be asking when will John concede defeat but when will the Greens also concede defeat in Victoria? They have gone very quite of late…
Just saw a footage on Skynews of the Rodent attending the NSW Liberals meeting and the commentary was “JH attending the meeting still with his PM entourage”. WTF, dont tell me this man and Hyacinth is still hanging out at No: 1 Kirribilli. Do they have any shame and still sucking us dried. Rudd should put his foot down and kick them out.
yep Can not see the Greens getting even close to a Senator in Vic
Megan problem is our system is rather uniwue in the world. I have faith that an e-voting system will work. But it does not need the expense and toys the electoral officals want to get their hands on. There are many examples where the AEC and VEC have used a computerised counting system when a manual conting system would have been cheaper and more effective. Single member elctorates for example). One of the main issues is in the data-enry process. if they come up with a suitable user input system then half the problem disappears BUT there still are quiestions of intgerity and secutirty. The fact that the VEC access the e-voting system without scrutineers present and prior to close of the poll is a very serious issue.
Other sisies with t5he Victorian count include the fact that they opted to avoid the preliminary distribution of first prefernece votes. This is useful in that one it provides a check digit and two it allows for scutioneers to minor a selct group opf votes as they are processed as opposed to the random data-entry syustem adopted by the VEC. The AEC does a better job over all.
If you have poor records on the TOTAL NUMBER of votes issued then there is no way in which you can really monitor or scrutinise the count. Same situtiaon if scrutineers are denied access to the raw preference data…
Steve Tully in Victoriua refused to make available the prefernce4 data for the first count so there was no way in which a comparison between the two counts could be made. The overall number of total votes between count A and Count B change significantly. Votes went mssing between the tow count. i can understand a missallocation but for the totral number of vaotes to change something is seriously wrong. To then deny access to detailed data only makes it worst. e-Voting systems MUST be open and transparent if the public is to maintain confidence overall in the system. I have no confidence in the way Steve Tully and the VEC conducted their count. I was proven right.
aec manager said they’d count mcEwen declarations today.
Maybe its too hot to count
For heavens sake we are supposed to be a first World country
-get 77% counted on noght and the ‘hard’ votes …2 weeks its is
Just imagine if it had of been a cliffhanger ?
(’Kirribilli Removals’ would STILL be parked outside the Lodge)
I don’t think unsuccessful challengers are required either by custom or good manners to “concede.” This is an obligation for defeated sitting members alone. The only Victorian Senate candidate required to concede defeat is Lyn Allison, which she has done. http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Democrats-down-but-not-out-Allison/2007/11/25/1195947541134.html
It is custom that the winning candidates wait for the concession speech of the losing side. Lynn Alison I think served Victoria well. Her party did not. They are just a feeder for the Greens
I do not think the custom of concession only applied to incumbent members. John last time I looked was and is an incumbent member. No the custom applies to the losing team to concede. In Victoria’s case the Greens should concede they are not going to win a senate seat.
I recall attending the declaration of the Member for Malvern and I was gracious to congratulate Robert Doyle in his expected Victory.
Di Natalie should also announce his unsuccessful candiature
McEwen, 7 Votes, ALP WIN
adam
“Albert Ross, you moron, you must be the only person here too stupid to have noticed that I am an ALP member”
mate beside being a will o wisp you jump on any bandwagon when you feel the mood suits your outlook
i really like your schoolboy insults “grub”
matches your reasoning powers “old son”
McEwen Updated: 8/12/2007 4:10:50 PM
BAILEY, Fran Liberal 48,409 50.00 56.42 -6.42
MITCHELL, Rob Australian Labor Party 48,416 50.00 43.58 +6.42
I’m glad you like my insults, gusface. I try to please.
As I said above, I am researching who said what during the campaign. Are you the same gusface who said on 30 September: “warringah will go to the wire”?
Why is it that PB today has become a place to do a “dump” on someone? Some manners please or have we stooped to Glenn & ESJ level.
Schrifsteller – you little beaudy!!!
The fact that the VEC access the e-voting system without scrutineers present and prior to close of the poll is a very serious issue.
Yes, THAT is the issue….it has to be tamper-proof and seen to be above board.
As they say,vigilance is required to maintain the old ship ‘Democracy’.
Re #383
Let us hope that the recount(s) confirm(s) the desired result.
McEwan. Looks like all votes have been counted.
I wonder what happened to the 1589 postals that did not get to the count in time?
Mitchell by 7 votes. Amazing. Of course there will be a recount, and then a court challenge. This will run for weeks yet.
No way do challenging losers have to concede, except in exceptional circumstances (if say Maxine was theoretically going to lose and holding up the forming of a new Liberal government). Otherwise the presses would be full of CEC and Socialist Alliance concessions Australia wide.
Nor should there be pressure for Senate concessions at all, given that the spots aren’t to be filled for half a year.
Lynn Allison stated in the article
“… our competitors for the balance of power hold extreme positions and have vested interests that back them.”
I understand the extreme positions but just what are the vested interests….. could these “vested interests” have something to do with the voting record of the Greens in the Victorian parliament…
more importantly WHY did the democrats support the Greens by preferencing the Greens ahead of Labor and the Liberal Party. (I never could support their split ticket policy… they could have issued a third ticket)
Melb city – makes both ideological sense and gives them Greens prefs as well?
I think you trying to rewrite the books. The concession speeches are not limited to incumbents… never have been… If your in a losing at the point it becomes obvious you concede. That is the tradition and the past practice.
The count in McEwen is fantastic. Let’s hope this holds up in the recount. My partner was very disappointed when Ms Bailey pulled in front during the count.
There can’t be a court challenge just because it’s close.
I think generally incumbents are expected to win, all things being equal. Therefore Albanese or anyone else in a safe seat does not have to wait for a concession from their opponents. It would be manners, but not custom for challengers to need to concede. There is a more of an ethical responsibility on a sitter than a challenger to concede if the jig is up.
The Landeryou Election Map site is Showing a win to the ALP in McEwen 50/50 ALP by 7 Votes. Baily should concede
She is the incumbent 
McEwen I heard from a local had retired treechangers on holiday thus Labor’s comeback. Rob Mitchell must be relieved, especially after the hell of being the Benall candidate in 2006.
I’ll second that
. Unfortunately I think she’s gonna keep jigging though…
Spiros @ 393.
Right on. However, Julian Schneezel has already said that there will be a challenge. Unfortunately, they will need to provide clear incontravertible evidence that they have been disadvantaged by the counting process e.g. specific evidence that votes in one booth were counted differently or similar.
Subject to a recount verification process, Labor has won McEwen. Congratulations to Rob Mitchell and his campaign team.
Bailey is toast, unless she wins on a recount.
Even if she wins a court challenge, she’ll lose the subsequent bye-election.
Unless google-man can get he some really good evidence for court.
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