This time yesterday, Liberal member Fran Bailey held on to a 32-vote lead in McEwen which, though rapidly diminishing, was calculated by Antony Green to be 77 per cent likely to hold after the few remaining votes were counted. Those votes are now in: the last few absent votes broke 100-93 in favour of Labor’s Rob Mitchell, postals went 37-21 his way, pre-polls favoured him to the tune of 33-23, and further rechecking of booth votes cost Bailey 14 and Mitchell eight. All of which leaves Mitchell seven votes ahead. This is apparently the final result, pending the final recount, which could certainly turn up enough anomalies to overturn a lead as small as this. Adam Carr further argues that with a margin of fewer than 20 votes, “the Liberal Party’s lawyers will be able to scrape up some pretext or another for a court challenge”. He also states: “Unfortunately for Labor, most of the precedents are that the incumbent government loses the subsequent by-election (Nunawading, Mundingburra, Greensborough).”
Mundingburra of course was the Queensland by-election in February 1996 that cost the Goss government the one-seat majority it retained after the 1995 election. The other two are from Carr’s home patch of Victoria. There are probably about five people in the country who can tell you about the 1985 by-election for the state upper house province of Nunawading, and I am not of their number. UPDATE: Scratch that – the result cost the Cain government its short-lived control of the upper house, so probably quite a few people know about it, including me from now on. What’s more, it followed an initial tied result and a win for Labor decided by a draw from a hat. The Greensborough by-election refers not to the one Sherryl Garbutt won in 1989, but rather to the one Poll Bludger commenter Chris Curtis ran in as DLP candidate in 1977, which produced a massive swing to the then Labor opposition. ANOTHER UPDATE: A correction in comments from Brian McKinlay (of McKinlay case fame), who says Carr was in fact referring to yet another by-election for Greensborough which took place in 1973, which saw a Liberal win overturned by the court before being re-confirmed by the electorate. One might respond that the 1996 Lindsay by-election demonstrates that voters do not take kindly to initiators of legal challenges, but perhaps the 5.0 per cent Liberal swing on that occasion had more to do with Labor’s generally poor performance at re-matches than is generally realised.
Anyway, let’s assume now for the sake of argument that this result stands. We now have a new modern standard for close federal electorate results to beat Liberal candidate Ian Viner’s 12-vote win in Stirling in 1974. The historians among you are invited to relate other famous close shaves in comments. We also have Labor on 84 seats and the Coalition on 64, with two independents. This is pleasing from a personal perspective as it’s exactly what I predicted early in the campaign for New Matilda, although I did underestimate Queensland’s contribution to the Labor total. Unfortunately, the day before the election I upped the ante to 87 in a prediction for Crikey, which looked very good on election night but became progressively less good as counting proceeded.
This prediction was highlighted today in The Australian, which has promoted me from confuser of fact with opinion and baser of opinion on ignorance and prejudice to the slightly more elevated title of “pundit”. I suspected at first that The Australian compiled this list as a subtle dig at an online commentariat that had leaned a little too heavily to Labor in its predictions, but that doesn’t explain the inclusion of Malcolm Mackerras. In any case, Brad Norington bails me out in the accompanying article by trying on the line that Labor owes its win to “fewer than 12,000 people across nine electorates”. Those of you marvelling over the seven-vote margin in McEwen are invited to consider an election in which the Coalition held on to power after retaining each of Bass, Bennelong, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Flynn, Hasluck, Robertson and Solomon by one solitary vote. On this basis, I hereby declare that my prediction of 87 seats was only out by 595 votes out of 12,350,549. It would in fact be far more accurate to say it was 0.2 per cent out, which isn’t so bad either I suppose.
UPDATE: Adam Carr on historical close results:
In terms of numbers of votes, the closest result in a House of Representatives contest was 1 vote (13,569 to 13,568), when Edwin Kirby (Nationalist) defeated Charles McGrath (ALP) in Ballarat (Vic) in 1919. The result was declared void in 1920. In 1903 Robert Blackwood (FT) defeated John Chanter (Prot) in Riverina (NSW) by 5 votes (4,341 to 4,336). This result was also declared void. The closest result allowed to stand was 7 votes (13,162 to 13,155), when John Lynch (ALP), defeated Hon Alfred Conroy (Lib) in Werriwa (NSW) in 1914. In terms of percentages of the vote, the closest result was Kirby’s voided win in Ballarat in 1919: he polled 50.002% of the vote. The closest result allowed to stand was that in the Griffith (Qld) by-election of 1939, when William Conelan (ALP) defeated Peter McCowan (UAP), after preferences, with 50.007% of the vote. The closest winning margin in recent times has been 50.011%, polled by Ian Viner (Liberal) in Stirling (WA) in 1974 and by Christine Gallus (Liberal) in Hawker (SA) in 1990.
Mitchell has 50.003%, so his percentage is lower than both Conelan’s in 1939, Viner’s in 1974 and Gallus’s in 1990.
664 Comments
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150 Chris Curtis I think I’ve got that map somewhere. It’s a beauty.
In fact it’s probably available on the net somewhere now.
Does anyone ever read Mike Smithson’s articles in The Sunday Mail in Adelaide.
This morning he was keeping up a theme that Hamilton-Smith will win in 2010 because Rudd won in 2007.
Chris B,
Now I’ll have to go searching the net. Maybe I will find out why the line to Edenhope was never built.
Is there any chance Jane Lomax-Smith will become premier of SA before the next election? I believe this would give the first ever Australian election contested by two leaders with hyphenated names. (No, Forgan-Smith and Bjelke-Petersen were never leaders at the same time.)
‘Forgan Smith’ was really just Smith, the tagging on of Forgan was an affectation to indicate he was above the plebs. Usually in the ALP hyphens are unpopular. Chris Hurford and Duncan Kerr shed them along the way.
CC says:
“They may keep on fighting the 2007 election, just as Paul Keating is still fighting the 1996 one.”
Keating might mellow a little now that Howard is out of the way. Keating’s narrative is that Howard and Costello inherited all the benefits of the economic reforms that he and Hawke achieved. It’s a fair point, but nearly all of the reforms he mentions occurred before he was prime minister. His major platform as PM was opposing economic reform.
If Howard keeps fighting the 2007 election I hope he gets a script writer so he can be as funny Keating.
118
Rodney Tiffen’s article is spot on. Thanks Ferney Grover for the link!
Work to rule @ 21, William Bowe @ 24:
Without double checking, and accepting the BLUEBOTTLE numbers as written (I take 100+ to be 100 etc), I get the following:
ALP
SEATS VOTES PRODUCT
0 1 0
67 1 67
70 2 140
72 3 216
73 2 146
74 3 222
75 1 75
77 1 77
78 3 234
80 14 1120
81 3 243
82 7 574
83 9 747
84 3 252
85 14 1190
86 5 430
87 6 522
88 8 704
89 7 623
90 6 540
91 10 910
92 5 460
93 3 279
94 1 94
95 1 95
96 2 192
97 2 194
98 1 98
99 2 198
100 3 300
101 1 101
102 2 204
103 2 206
104 2 208
105 2 210
106 1 106
108 1 108
110 1 110
111 1 111
146 1 146
SUM PRODUCT 12452
SUM VOTES 143
WEIGHTED MEAN 87.07692308
We might as well say that re-elections ordered by the Court of Disputed Returns trend the same way as the general election: eg Mundingburra, Lindsay…
Peter J,
Yep I think I got a similar mean of 87. The median estimate – which is less effected by extreme predictions – was 86.
I think a median estimate that is within two seats of the actual outcome is a good example of wisdom of crowds. Or alternatively there was a bit of group think going on that caused most people to tip a seat outcome in the 80’s and it just happened to be right.
You really need to run an experiment like these several times before you can make any firm conclusions
re post 129
matters disputed @ the count could be raised in a court of disputed returns case
with 100,000 votes it is quite possible to find questionable decisions for this number of votes or more.
HOWEVER
the decision to take things further is one for the Liberal party and is fraught
with dangers. What happens if they manage to force a byelection & lose it!!!
r/f Lindsay 1996
Chris B,
The date may have been 1942. I haven’t found it on the net, but there is a 1999 map that shows most of the closed lines from earlier years at:
http://www.victorianrailways.net/vr%20map/vrmap.pdf
re maps
the situation for the national party is dire. assuming they win Calare
they hold 10 seats. and only 4 of those seats are secure.
they only have Mps in 3 states.
SO LONG !!!!!
Mick,
10 out of 150 is a long way down from the 22 out of 125 they used to have.
But still in some sense, undemocratically high for a party that gets 5% of the vote.
Adam, tq. i asked for it.
Another Liberal scrap:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/09/2113688.htm
There is definitely a concerted move on by MSM stooges to paint Labor as promising lower groceries and petrol prices as seen on Insiders, here is today’s effort by that disgraceful bloated toad Piers Ackerman, jeez don’t they think we can see straight through them:
“Grocery prices haven’t dropped, petrol prices were higher than they have been for months, housing is just as inaccessible or unaffordable as it has always been and there as many Aussie troops in Iraq as there were three weeks ago.”
That man is a disgrace to his trade, I would not dignify with the term profession.
Mick Quinlivan 164, Chris Curtis 165 – a world without the Nats – what would happen?
Former PM says ““Unless you’re stupid, unless you implode, unless you misbehave …”
Three extremely big “unlesses” given the rabble he’s left behind him.
neophyte,
I guess we could ask the Tasmanians.
Not sure whether these are good or bad prospects.
Former PM says ““Unless you’re stupid, unless you implode, unless you misbehave …”
One could argue Howard being guilty of all three over the course of the last 12 months…
For starters (amongst many others):
Stupid: couldn’t believe the polls so didn’t believe the polls (or left it to Shanahan to interpret). Proud CC denialists.
Implode: What exactly do you call the Howard/Costello on again/off again team/no team. I’ll stay but I’ll go. Elect Howard – I’ll be PM for a while etc etc
Misbehave: Where to start – all the dirt culminating in Lindsaygate.
And Howard is giving advice!
HOOHOO, I know Mike Smithson quite well, way before he went overseas and came back self styled as a political journo rather than the run of the mill hack that he was before, believe me i’d take most of what he writes with a very large serve of salt lol, he’s a sensationalist and would never let facts get in the way of a good story,I class him at the same level as TT— a program I avoid like the plague.
well this was to be expected.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22894724-5005962,00.html
I just went onto Toad’s blog and gave ‘em a broadside, 16 inch guns blazing, betcha that won’t get through that disgraceful little reptile’s moderation. They are pathetic, now they are saying Labor only won by a few thousand votes. they do not even understand how the Westminster system works, miserable bunch of losers.
I recall the Nunawading by-election very well. It was around that time that I managed to talk Evan walker who inturn talked to John Cain and the ALP adopted a upper-house reform policy . Which is not in place.
Nunawading was a not a case of their being a small margin win it was a draw out of a hat win. That was the main reason the courts ruled a reconest election.
Problem with the count as clsoe as that in McEwen is there is disputation over what should be included and what should be excluded. A person who was removed from the roll and previously had voted in the electorate has agood case to have their vpte included. They could have not recioved some notice or in pervious elctions in whcih they did not vote they could have been overseas or unable to vote. The actions of the Commission in removing their name and thus denying them the right to vote is of real concen.
Issues with postal ballots not being signed and the like all raise questions subject to review and consideration.
the fact that the AEC appeared to now know how many ballot papers it had issued and that the information publihsed showed more ballot papers being recevied back then issued in some elctorates is of concern.
In Victoria a Nameless Victorian Electoral Commissioner failed to asertain or check the number of ballot papers issued against teh recorded number of ballot papers returned and accounted for. Votes between count A and Count B went nmissing and the total nuymber of ballot papers did not tally with the polling place returns or the corrsseponding lower house votes. information and details of the election counts was and has been denied.
We should not be allowed to criticize or express concern at the fact that the number of ballot papers recorded as being issued is less then the number received back.
If ballot papers go missing or are added into the count well bad luck we should only know what the commissioners publish as a being the results be it seven votes or 150 difference. if the result changes between count well the last count holds. Even if the first count clearly had errors.
Sorry I am of the view that the system Must be open and Transparent, that details of the count MUST be published and made public and that Commissioners are accountable for their mistakes and attempts of cover-up. Elections go to the heart of our democracy and if the system is not open or transparent then public confidence in the outcome and process is undermined.
I expect the Commissioners to know how many votes they have issued and to accurately and in a timely fashion make that information public. i also expect that the data files recording preferences used to determine the result should also be published and open to independent public review.
The Greens remain quite on all accounts. Got news for you it will bite you in the bum at some stage and you will yell….
Regarding Howard’s speech to the Liberals, I still missed the bit where he conceded defeat in Bennelong. Can anyone point it out to me? After all, Howard is a man of principle, who sticks to traditions like admitting defeat to the victor. Surely Honourble John would do the right thing? ROTFL
I suppose Howard still thinks he could win it back in 2010. He is so humble
155
Adam Says: what an interesting statistic.. What BS… Sorry there are far more important issues then useless trivia like that… How many have the name of a profession or trade how many begin with the letter C… gosh Costello and Abbott isn’t that funny ‘they never will be a team … oh and Putin’s election is undemocratic… even though the level of his support is unequivocally not in dispute.
180
Socrates
I am still waiting for the Greens to concede the Victorian Senate Election. I guess Howard can wait if the Green can
hey Adam you can publish a Electorial trivial pursuit game set of questions. How many elections where there in Australia where two candidates had the same name? I am sure it would be a hig-demand seller.
Adam trivia (cont) You could break it up into six categiories such as Names, Margins parties professions. etc… roll the dice and see who wins.
I am sure it would be a big hit at the ALP fundraisers.
MelbCity, do you have something against the Greens?
WHOOPS! this isnt going to help Sir Horatio’s tenure any, hmmm looks like not all of the libs are enamoured with their new leader’s past performance.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/09/2113688.htm
178 -
Don’t worry if it doesn’t get though, there are enough critical voices against him in the comments, which is refreshing. Unlike in Bolta’s article. It’s like cockroaches swarming to a rotting carcass. As soon as Bolt puts a negative spin on Labor’s win, all the conservatives come out and applaud him in comments. As if reading his dribble on the great global warming hoax isn’t painful enough!
Melb city
I don’t understand why you keep on about the Greens conceding the Victorian Senate election. It is just not necessary or appropriate or usual for any party which fails to win a Senate spot to “concede”. How many parties ran in the Senate? How many have “conceded”? It just sounds like you are anti-Green and wanting to score a point. All you are doing is kicking own goals.
Can I also suggest you type your posts in a Word type program, run a spell check and then cut and paste. Most of what you have to say is a useful contibution, but it is sometimes hard to translate.
If the courts decide there should be a rerun election. Will they restrict the re-run to existing candidates or even suggest there be a two horse race? To determine the winner? or will we see a gathering of plane spotters and every dog and his sunder green cow run.
Maybe the two candidates could play the Adam Carr Electoral Trivial Pursuit game and the winner takes the seat.
I am all for multi-member electorates non of this 50% + 1 takes all BS
Well, here’s a change of tune!
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/rudd-refuses-to-overrule-act-on-gay-partnership-bill/2007/12/06/1196812922344.html
It seems to me that most of the media still don’t believe that Labor won the election. Most the press being put out is still focused on the Coalition rather than Labor. I would agree that Labor has not had enough time to do anything but they do have policies to look at and discusss.
I expect people will criticize me for this comment because they love giving it to the Coalition but Labor is in, time to look to our future with them at the helm.
190
Rudd said he would not make it easier, he didn’t say he would make it harder. I guess this is the loophole he was looking for.
Excellent election tipping by the commenters on this blog. Don’t forget our tips were made weeks before the election. In the last week of the campaign, ACN poll had 57/43, then Galaxy and Newspoll 52/48.
I’m sure we would have nailed it had we been able to lodge in our tips on the eve of the election.
But what about the Sunday Telegraph? What a pack of losers! On the sunday before the election the screaming front page column by Glen Milne implied that Rudd would win by only a handful of seats. Certainly not the 20 seats more than the coalition.
Milne, Farr, Akerman, honestly (Big Brother) it is time to go…
Centre @ 193
I can’t say too much because my predication was wrong but there was not much in a Coalition win and massive landslide of a 40 seat Labor majority. It is hard to say who got it right and wrong unless they gave the % swing as well. In any case I got both wrong.
191 -
No, I think that is reasonable. There is a lot of media focus on the Coalition at the moment with their leadership issues and questins of whether they’ll be truly competitive come 2010, and also because it wasn’t the emphatic win for Labor that the polls predicated.
@ 170 Basil Fawlty Says:
I dunno. Whoors are professionals.
Fireworks at Howard and Sons exploded with lots of damage.
Kirribilli Removals, that’s a bit of a rough way of evicting them.
When the shoehorn didn’t work I guess explosives were KR’s next option
A bit of smoke and Howard would pick up his mirror and bolt.
What a zero of a hero…..never again please….
I mucked up by predicting 100+ seats for Labor. At the time the polls were 55-45, and had been there for several months. Unfortunately for my prediction, it narrowed in the final week. If not for that final narrowing, I think 100+ seats would have been fairly close.
As to why the narrowing, I’ve said before that I think it was the people who are not at all interested in politics, and are counted as uncommitted or refused on most polls, deciding to stick with the devil they knew. Fortunately for Labor, there were enough people who had decided to vote Labor already to make up for these late deciders. This won’t be a problem next time, as Rudd will be the incumbent, so unless he messes up big time, or the economy goes belly-up, Labor should win convincingly to crushingly.
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