This time yesterday, Liberal member Fran Bailey held on to a 32-vote lead in McEwen which, though rapidly diminishing, was calculated by Antony Green to be 77 per cent likely to hold after the few remaining votes were counted. Those votes are now in: the last few absent votes broke 100-93 in favour of Labor’s Rob Mitchell, postals went 37-21 his way, pre-polls favoured him to the tune of 33-23, and further rechecking of booth votes cost Bailey 14 and Mitchell eight. All of which leaves Mitchell seven votes ahead. This is apparently the final result, pending the final recount, which could certainly turn up enough anomalies to overturn a lead as small as this. Adam Carr further argues that with a margin of fewer than 20 votes, “the Liberal Party’s lawyers will be able to scrape up some pretext or another for a court challenge”. He also states: “Unfortunately for Labor, most of the precedents are that the incumbent government loses the subsequent by-election (Nunawading, Mundingburra, Greensborough).”
Mundingburra of course was the Queensland by-election in February 1996 that cost the Goss government the one-seat majority it retained after the 1995 election. The other two are from Carr’s home patch of Victoria. There are probably about five people in the country who can tell you about the 1985 by-election for the state upper house province of Nunawading, and I am not of their number. UPDATE: Scratch that – the result cost the Cain government its short-lived control of the upper house, so probably quite a few people know about it, including me from now on. What’s more, it followed an initial tied result and a win for Labor decided by a draw from a hat. The Greensborough by-election refers not to the one Sherryl Garbutt won in 1989, but rather to the one Poll Bludger commenter Chris Curtis ran in as DLP candidate in 1977, which produced a massive swing to the then Labor opposition. ANOTHER UPDATE: A correction in comments from Brian McKinlay (of McKinlay case fame), who says Carr was in fact referring to yet another by-election for Greensborough which took place in 1973, which saw a Liberal win overturned by the court before being re-confirmed by the electorate. One might respond that the 1996 Lindsay by-election demonstrates that voters do not take kindly to initiators of legal challenges, but perhaps the 5.0 per cent Liberal swing on that occasion had more to do with Labor’s generally poor performance at re-matches than is generally realised.
Anyway, let’s assume now for the sake of argument that this result stands. We now have a new modern standard for close federal electorate results to beat Liberal candidate Ian Viner’s 12-vote win in Stirling in 1974. The historians among you are invited to relate other famous close shaves in comments. We also have Labor on 84 seats and the Coalition on 64, with two independents. This is pleasing from a personal perspective as it’s exactly what I predicted early in the campaign for New Matilda, although I did underestimate Queensland’s contribution to the Labor total. Unfortunately, the day before the election I upped the ante to 87 in a prediction for Crikey, which looked very good on election night but became progressively less good as counting proceeded.
This prediction was highlighted today in The Australian, which has promoted me from confuser of fact with opinion and baser of opinion on ignorance and prejudice to the slightly more elevated title of “pundit”. I suspected at first that The Australian compiled this list as a subtle dig at an online commentariat that had leaned a little too heavily to Labor in its predictions, but that doesn’t explain the inclusion of Malcolm Mackerras. In any case, Brad Norington bails me out in the accompanying article by trying on the line that Labor owes its win to “fewer than 12,000 people across nine electorates”. Those of you marvelling over the seven-vote margin in McEwen are invited to consider an election in which the Coalition held on to power after retaining each of Bass, Bennelong, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Flynn, Hasluck, Robertson and Solomon by one solitary vote. On this basis, I hereby declare that my prediction of 87 seats was only out by 595 votes out of 12,350,549. It would in fact be far more accurate to say it was 0.2 per cent out, which isn’t so bad either I suppose.
UPDATE: Adam Carr on historical close results:
In terms of numbers of votes, the closest result in a House of Representatives contest was 1 vote (13,569 to 13,568), when Edwin Kirby (Nationalist) defeated Charles McGrath (ALP) in Ballarat (Vic) in 1919. The result was declared void in 1920. In 1903 Robert Blackwood (FT) defeated John Chanter (Prot) in Riverina (NSW) by 5 votes (4,341 to 4,336). This result was also declared void. The closest result allowed to stand was 7 votes (13,162 to 13,155), when John Lynch (ALP), defeated Hon Alfred Conroy (Lib) in Werriwa (NSW) in 1914. In terms of percentages of the vote, the closest result was Kirby’s voided win in Ballarat in 1919: he polled 50.002% of the vote. The closest result allowed to stand was that in the Griffith (Qld) by-election of 1939, when William Conelan (ALP) defeated Peter McCowan (UAP), after preferences, with 50.007% of the vote. The closest winning margin in recent times has been 50.011%, polled by Ian Viner (Liberal) in Stirling (WA) in 1974 and by Christine Gallus (Liberal) in Hawker (SA) in 1990.
Mitchell has 50.003%, so his percentage is lower than both Conelan’s in 1939, Viner’s in 1974 and Gallus’s in 1990.
664 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 7 8 [9] 10 11 … 14 » Show All
It was SNEDDEN, not Sneddon. I think Nelson has a lot more substance than Snedden did. But just like Snedden, Nelson will have a Malcolm breathing down his neck, ready to knife him at the first slip-up.
I believe Harry Jenkins will be Speaker.
Glen said “Labor won only 5 more seats overall than the Liberals led by Snedden”
Well Beasley won 51% of the 2PP vote in 1998 to Howard’s 49%
Liberals squirm at accepting defeat
which makes us labor people even happier !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nelson’s TV clip saying ” I’ve never voted Liberal in my life”
certainly shows substance
Nelson is a political dead man
LEP re question time, I’m not confident that they’ll change it, but there is more that you can do than setting time limits – in particular, you can limit the number of questions government members are allowed to ask, or guarantee the opposition a certain number.
Whether they’ll do anything about it or not, reforming the process is specifically mentioned in Labor’s platform:
“Parliamentary question time should be an opportunity for calling the government to account. Labor believes that all ministers should be in attendance and that there should be procedures to ensure that questions are adequately answered.”
The attendance requirement sounds like Rudd to me!
Ron Brown
Let me fantasise here.
Imagine if someone who has worked on a project, contacted the powers that be and has secured tacit support.
The Greens were a tough egg to crack.
Dodd made the point that it has to be done in such a way that progress will be hard to achieve.
When I passed on a policy on excise to O’Mahony, it was forwarded on.
I will be revisiting this when I lock horns.
In all, I would not be concerned for the alliance.
403
Ron Brown – you obviously don’t know the context to when he said that. People in that crowd all Laborites most likely were trashing him saying he was a Liberal stooge for attacking Keating’s woeful health policies, and that’s when he said that line.
Oh, by the way…..I forgot to mention the ACTU…..silly me!
LEP yes we agree to disagree but not by as much as you think
On a one election basis , you are right….but on a long term basis the 2 Party’s
via a HTV are locking in long term stability of their vote
AND long term solidity of their political power for both partys
Policy wise Labor will do SOME trade offs but policy wise they are more similar
than labor is to the liberals or the greens are to the liberals
Adam. Sneddon, Snedden, it’s past 12 Oclock and whats the diff he was a loser. Had Billy been a more memorable personality I would have spelt his name more accurately.
Adequately answered could mean anything, what ‘procedures’ are there to ensure adequate answers? The only thing I can think of is an independent speaker, and that’s not going to happen. Calling the Government to account could mean providing Labor members with the opportunity to highlight the great policies of the Government. All Ministers can’t always be in attendance (for instance they may be off on official business) so that leaves a lot of wriggle room on that one. The whole policy statement is worded loosely enough to allow Labor to very broadly say they’ve met it.
I admit question time is a fundamentally excrutiating part of the sitting day, and in my opinion, one of the least useful parts of the day as far as acountability is concerned. Let’s hope Labor do reform question time and parliamentary procedure… but I won’t be holding my breath on that.
Gary, I also hold Jennies view, Labor can do themselves a lot of damage by referencing the religious right. The Greens and Labor are not married, but like it or not they are forced to sleep in the same bed.
405
scaper
In all, I would not be concerned for the alliance.
Scaper I agree , but my concern is climate change needs the USA but the USA is governed by IMMEDIATE economic concerns for them rather than the Planet
and Rudd is to walk into this pit
Yep , Jenny & gary ,
Labor is lucky to have the Greens and vice versa
Together they will build long term political power via HTV preferencing each others
75% of respective primary votes
Yeah, well, Downer, Howard et al.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22895466-7583,00.html
ALEXANDER Downer has confirmed in startling fashion what voters instinctively knew on November 24; that after almost 12 years John Howard had run out of both energy and ideas. And what’s more, his senior ministers knew it.
But what will outrage those who believed the government might have survived under a Peter Costello prime ministership is that Howard also knew that he was running on empty, but decided to stay on anyway, wilfully consigning the Coalition to what could be a decade in the political wilderness.
And the reason Howard chose this road to the abyss? In a verdict that will frame the 2007 defeat as the ultimate act of indulgence on Howard’s part, Downer says it was because those Costello supporters agitating for change in late 2006 were “f…ing rude” to the former prime minister.
Etc
Glen had won tonight’s most remarkable statement with:
Glen: Labor only won 5 more seats than Snedden’s liberals
but Glen did not rest on hs laurels:
Glen : Nelson ’somehow; did not mean it when he said on TV
” I have never voted Liberal in my life”
even though Nelson was also a member of the ALP from 1988 to 1992
Ron Brown
I understand your concerns about the US, but from all the research, the northern hemisphere will cop the most brunt of the effect.
Sorry, my take on the impending situation.
As a nation, we have an integral role to play…..investment in the future???
Thanks mainly to the non responses by the ALP to the indigenous invasion and the Haneef affair I had to be very persuasive among my circle of friends and relatives to stop them jettisoning a second preference to the ALP. At least
seven or eight persons I know well were so angry at the ALP they were threatening to put Greens #1 then everybody else with Libs 2nd last and ALP last.
Now that may not be seen as a rational anti-Howard vote but that was the response.
As far as I know I managed to successfully put the case that the ALP should be preferenced before the Libs et al but it was hard work and line ball in some cases.
If ever the ALP preference FF again then there are many persons I know who will not vote for them and will prefer them way down the list.
yes Scaper agree
Rudd I am sure would have also preferred to put most of the $31 billion into ‘future investment of water , climate , renewables , infrastucture , skills etc
but as soon as Howard irresponsibly promised the $34 billion tax cutsa , rudd was FORCED to match Howard …otherwise Rudd would have lost the election
Fred both issues were ‘wedge’ issues created by Howard to win middle Australia votes which Rudd had already won
Rudd’s THEN responses to the 2 issues KEPT these votes
Fred its frustrating but that was the only way to beat a politician like Howard
who only believed in ANY policy designed to win liberal votes or cost Labor votes
Ron, if you allow myself to be casual…..yes that is a tough one.
I’m working on a partnership with government and corporate Australia.
And I won’t rule out foreign investment if there are vacancies at the table.
It’s a matter of carrots….
CW
Did Howard think he would have been a coward if he had handed over? Not if he had handed over with a decent speech. His attitude that he would screw the party if they forced him out speaks volumes about the man (whoops! sorry, rodent) that he was. This bastard is only to be spoken of in the past tense from now on: he is a past blot on the landscape.
Ron
I won’t talk in riddles, this is the basis, but it has bloomed into more substance.
I’ve got to go to bed now…think about it.
“THE GREAT SOUTHERN CROSS PROJECT”
My vision is to run major infrastructure along side of the two railway lines, the Ghan and the Indian Pacific.
The next phase is to encourage settlement by gifting land and low interest set up loans to rehabilitate the inland regions to cater for the rising population. It is imperative that we establish industries, ie. agriculture and tree plantations to cater for the future to ensure our environment and sustainability.
There will be need to also establish a goods and services industry to cater for this population. I envision an inland city near the crossing of these railroads to service and distribute freight to the population. Once this is established then a branching out to reclaim more arable land for agriculture to provide for future population growth.
Super fast broadband will also have to be accessed by all Australia to encourage business to decentralise to these areas. This would be of great benefit financially to business due to the low costs to operate etc.
A full energy network would be beneficial to ensure that non-peak load can be distributed to peak load areas to maximize the resource. We need to research and develop new power technology to meet demand and the financial burden should be borne in partnership with industry and government.
A hydraulic network is paramount as the importance of water is the backbone of my vision. We have to harvest and redistribute to areas affected by lack of water to maximize the production of food and also the natural eco-systems’ survival. Northern Australia will provide such with winter storage areas established to maximize the effect of the monsoonal season.
I have had this vision for eight years and the importance of at least debating this issue is becoming more prevalent as every year passes. We need a goal, a strategy and a national vision as we have a duty of care to the future Australian generations.
My vision is a twenty-fifty year project. For this to be achieved the cooperation is required at all levels of government regardless of their ideology.
TONY MACK
Scaper, no problem…we need foreign investment now anyway because Howard has wasted much of our mining boom tax income by bribing voters with both middle class welfare and worse still non means tested upper class welfare
ViggoP , agree …Howard’s decision also says alot about how he felt about Costello
If he went down , he would destroy Costello with him
which is why when howard conceded he took full responsibility for the campaign loss
CODE FOR I do not take full responsibility for work choices etc. thereby lumbering Costello with work choices etc if Costello remained…forcing Costello to then quit
ViggoP
Howarded, past tense? did not care, about anything but himself.
Exactly the type of person who would bring everyone down, without him if possible.
As he was doing to the Australian people.
His brazen attitude continues, Kirribilli.
Judith Brett, a read.
http://www.google.com/search?q=judith+brett&sourceid=navclient-ff&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1B2GGFB_enAU214AU217
Google Judith Brett for more.
Doesn’t look like there is going to be much of a change in the way in which the GG and other News Ltd op-ed writers will be dealing with Rudd Labor in future.
{SOMEONE asked me recently, in a voice that suggested a certain smug confidence that it represented truth and justice, whether The Australian would continue to publish conservative columnists and contributors in the new political environment.
Just as Janet Albrechtsen and Keith Windschuttle occupied precious opinion-page real estate during the Howard years, he suggested, did we not need more commentators on the Left to reflect the Rudd era? “Given that everything has changed,” he asked, “can’t you, as oped editor, finally get rid of these right-wing ranters who’ve corrupted the national conversation in recent years?”
Well, leaving aside the unattractive tone of these remarks, the argument is fallacious for two reasons.
For one thing, it amounts to a request for the curtailment of free speech and public debate. In the never-ending battle of ideas, a lively opinion page should provide provocative, thoughtful arguments for points of view on a wide range of topical subjects: from what passes for Left and Right, as well as from writers whose politics are difficult to pigeonhole. When governments change, decent opinion pages should still accommodate contrary views. Otherwise, the cultural landscape would become as flat and unvaried as the proverbial Australian sheep station. }
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22895468-7583,00.html
CW
Interesting titles, must check them out.
In return, Margo Kingston’s “Still not happy John!” sticks the knife in. Tears into others of his coterie too, Abbott gets caned over GWB’s visit. I don’t know why I’m getting so angry, 666 is gone.
She looks a lot happier now that she is a Buddhist. Good luck to her, she was always my favourite commentator (Late Night Live and all that)
402 Ron. Your comment
“Liberals squirm at accepting defeat
which makes us labor people even happier !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
brought back happy memories of the Monty Python classic, “The Holy Grail” where, after a sword fight at the bridge…….
“the Black Knight continues to threaten Arthur despite getting both his arms and one of his legs cut off”
Black Knight: Right, I’ll do you for that!
King Arthur: You’ll what?
Black Knight: Come here!
King Arthur: What are you gonna do, bleed on me?
Black Knight: I’m invincible!
King Arthur: …You’re a loony.
Tenacious -yes, brave- perhaps, insight– nada, nothing , nil zip.
Scorpio!
Long time no see! Been wondering about you.
How do you be?
Happy?
Crikey
When Howard rejected 9 cabinet members advice to resign in Sept 2007
and these 9 were HIS allies not Costello supporters)
he signed his political legacy as putting himself before his party
BECAUSE the above became public , Howard will forever be remembered poorly
with the loss of his seat regarded BY LIBERAL politicians as just desserts !!!
Hi Crikey,
I’ve been here all the time lurking and reading with an occasional post.
Haven’t been too well lately though.
But was estatic at the result on the night of the 24th November.
Margo, ViggoP.
Seemed a lot more grounded, when I heard her on Philip, a little ago.
Great, dedicated, worn to the bone, in her endeavours.
She is surely a lot happier, now.
Terrific, Scorpio.
Hope not serious??
With you.
urely Scorpio your health improved as the night of the 24th November progressed
Looks like the Right Wing of the Liberal Party is about to sacrifice the Left Wing Party President to make way for Downer.
{BLOODLETTING inside the Liberal Party over last month’s election defeat has begun, with federal president Chris McDiven under intense pressure to step down this week amid threats of federal intervention in dysfunctional state divisions.
Ms McDiven, who is on the party’s Left, was last night said by her supporters to be digging in against a push from the Right to replace her with former foreign minister Alexander Downer at a meeting of the party’s federal executive, scheduled for Wednesday.
Ms McDiven, who has been president since 2005, would normally serve until the middle of next year, with her replacement chosen by the party’s federal council.
However, the Right, which does not control the council, is convinced it has the numbers to dump her this week. }
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22896879-2702,00.html
Not sure crikey.
Under the marvelous management of the Health system under Howard, I received a letter 3 weeks ago which will allow me to see a Neurologist and have MRI’s and other tests done in Brisbane.
On the 28th of April 2008.
Probably be dead by then without knowing what I died from.
Hope Rudd gets this woe-full situation in better order soon.
Looks like Tony Abbott is off to a good start in his new portfolio.
{TONY Abbott has repudiated calls by Kevin Rudd and Liberal MP Malcolm Turnbull for an apology to Aborigines, warning it could open the door to financial compensation claims.
Accusing proponents of an apology of “playing word games”, Mr Abbott also rejected Mr Turnbull’s suggestion that John Howard became tangled in semantics over the issue.
Speaking in his new role as the Liberals’ families and indigenous affairs spokesman, Mr Abbott said symbolism was important but practical solutions were better. Asked specifically about Mr Turnbull’s remarks on the “semantics” of Mr Howard’s position, he said the whole debate should have remained in the 1990s.}
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22896793-2702,00.html
Cripes, Scorpio. That is scarey and ghastly. What a wait. And you already have been waiting.
I have said for many years that my biggest wish was to live long enough to see Howard out of office. Clearly oppressed and debilitated.
That wish is fulfilled.
And oddly, I live still.
Hope you do and will, too.
Any chance of other than Qld? Medical assessment. No idea how it works, if trying elsewhere.
But, a suggestion.
I’m surprised that Abbott didn’t say in the last para that it was a Chaser kind of moment. He’s losing his touch.
Looks like I chased everyone off to bed.
Probably be a good idea if I went there too.
Thanks for the greetings.
Oh, great work over the election period William. Very impressive but boy, I undertook a lot of reading keeping up with all those posts on the many threads.
Cheers, Scorpio.
Brad Norington: Labor owes its win to “fewer than 12,000 people across nine electorates”
In 1998 Howard was only 6,873 votes shy of winning. This is the 2PP difference between Lib and Labor in the closest 8 seats Labor didn’t win (which would have given Labor a 1 seat majority in the 148 seat parliament).
Or I could phrase it in a more Norington-esque way:
“Howard owed his win in 1998 to fewer than 7,000 people across 8 electorates”.
What’s Norington’s point? That marginal seats win elections? Good that he’s finally worked that out. Dickhead.
Goodnight, Scorpio.
Look forward to hearing again, from you.
Will be in my heart.
That should be shy of losing. It is the early hours of the morning.
Did the Greens use corflutes?
Crikey, it’s a real problem living in a reagional area now as there are either very few or no, Specialists now and people have to travel to the State Capitals to get treatment which overloads that system too.
I may be lucky and have the same thing that Kim Beasley had. Schaltenbrand’s Syndrome which can be treated.
The problem started late April last year when I acquired a raging infection after a back molar was removed. The infection was caused by poot hygiene practices at the dental surgery and spread throughout my jaw and middle ear etc.
It may also have caused a plaque buildup in one of my main arteries and caused some damage to a heart valve.
Make sure you all visit the dentist regularly as the results can be serious if you get a bad gum or jaw infection.
fred I think that’s nonsense. These Greens voters were going to punish Labor for not making better policy decisions on Haneef and the NT intervention by voting for the party who actually took the poor policy decisions? I’d argue that either:
1) These people would be in the very slim and silly minority of Greens voters; or
2) They were just making some noise and were going to preference Labor over Liberal all along.
The best case that could be made on the issue would be to say that you were going to vote informal because neither party deserved your preference. However, I still think that’s a cop-out that any genuinely politically interested voter (and I’d like to think a large bulk of Greens voters are informed although that’s probably being too generous!) would actively decide to vote informal.
In any case, do you really think these people would have felt differently if the Greens had not put out HTV’s suggesting preferencing Labor above Liberal? Considering how much persuading you needed to do in order to get them to preference Labor you think they’d just look at the HTV and say… “OK then… I have no choice but to vote Labor?”. I doubt it… they’d most likely make their mind up separate to what the HTV told them to do.
This directly feeds into my argument that Labor just needs to position themselves as preferable to the Liberal Party to Greens voters to secure the large bulk of preferences. Ron Brown keeps going on and on about the importance of securing 75% of the Greens vote whilst refusing to look at elections where the Greens have not issued HTV’s urging their voters to preference Labor and Labor have still secured 75% or more of their preferences.
I still remain of the opinion that if Labor got some sort of deal with one of the larger conservative minor parties they’d effectively squeeze the Coalition out of the contest in a lot of tight-run seats.
Chris Curtis #358,
The DLP is not a centre-left party. It is, and has always been, the creature of the Catholic Church and its star witch-hunter Santamaria. DLP preferences saved Menzies’ backside more than once (1961 comes to mind), and DLP Senators helped Menzies pass his legislation.
Do not try to rewrite history in front of people who have read it already. FYI, Tom Burke (ALP member for Perth at the time of the ALP/DLP split) was my grandmother’s cousin. Hence it is a matter of some interest to my family.
Some discussion earlier here about Snedden’s famous 1974 post-election quote. I’ve forgotten the exact wording – something along the lines of, “We didn’t lose the election… We just didn’t win.”
This was brilliantly parodied by Mike Carlton after Snedden’s demise as:
“We shouldn’t think of Bill as dead. Just simply not alive any more.”
What a load of equine manure. Compensation claims don’t rely on expressions of apology or sorrow. If they did the civil courts would be barely exist.
Rob H sez “Maybe up those percentages a little to 0.4%-0.6%, and votes to 450+”
I think you may be underestimating the effect of being placed at the top of the ballot paper.
The ancient Ivor F has run in both elections in Greenway. He is well known in the area not only for his eccentric name change but he has been a high school and TAFE teacher as well as being involved in various activities such as the Air League.
2004 – Position 5: 420 0.55% (Formal: 75,879)
2007 – Position 1: 1,315 1.65% (Formal 79,500)
The exact Snedden quote that sticks in my memory about 1974 is “We were not defeated; we just didn’t win enough seats to form government”.
Sad, really, that he is still the closest we’ve ever come to having a WA-born PM.
Pages: « 1 … 7 8 [9] 10 11 … 14 » Show All