With electorate results progressively being declared, I will start appending my election guide entries with overviews of results for each seat. All five seats in Tasmania have been declared, so that seems a good place to start.
Bass provided Labor supporters with cause for nagging doubt during the early part of the count, with the smaller booths outside Launceston delivering a seemingly insufficient swing. In Scottsdale the swing to Labor was below the required 2.6 per cent, and Liberal member Michael Ferguson in fact picked up a small swing in Bridport. The turning point came when the big Launceston booths began to report, with Labor swings as high as 7.6 per cent at Summerhill and 8.1 per cent in Newnham. The other notable feature of the result was a big surge to the Greens who were able to monopolise the anti-pulp mill vote, pushing their support up from 8.1 per cent to 15.3 per cent at the expense of both major parties. This was reasonably consistent throughout the electorate with the interesting exception of Scottsdale, where the increase was only 0.8 per cent. Nothing particularly remarkable happened in George Town, the centre closest to the actual site of the mill.
The pattern of voting across Braddon was remarkably similar to the 2001 election, with voters reverting to type after the convulsion of Labor’s forestry policy in 2004. A large number of booths have produced double-digit swings first one way and then the other, including Acton in Burnie and East Devonport, along with the smaller town booths of Montague, Latrobe, Smithton. Coastal centres outside of the big towns, such as Wynyard, Somerset, Penguin and Ulverstone, followed relatively small swings to Liberal in 2004 with relatively small swings to Labor this time. However, Sid Sidebottom’s overall margin of 1.4 per cent (from a two-party swing of 2.6 per cent) is substantially lower than his 6.0 per cent from 2001. Predictions that the Mersey Hospital would boost the Liberals in Davenport at the expense of a backlash in Burnie received fairly modest support, Burnie collectively swinging 4.4 per cent compared with 1.2 per cent in Davenport. Despite a quite healthy lift on the Greens’ primary vote from 5.6 per cent to 8.1 per cent, Braddon remains their weakest Tasmanian seat.
Lyons produced a superficially status quo result, except that Liberal renegade Ben Quin gouged 9.6 per cent of the primary vote directly at the Liberals’ expense. However, this obscures big swings to Labor concentrated in the southern part of the electorate, particularly just outside Hobart at Brighton and New Norfolk. The 1.3 per cent lift in the Greens’ vote was the smallest in the state, presumably because much of the pulp mill protest vote was absorbed by Quin. Both major parties were slightly down slightly on the primary vote in Denison, the slack being taken up by a 4.0 per cent lift for the Greens. This converted into a 2.3 per cent two-party swing to Labor. Franklin was one of only four seats in the country to swing to the Coalition, due to the loss of retiring Harry Quick’s personal vote and perhaps also lingering static surrounding Kevin Harkins’ disendorsement. The Labor primary vote was down from 46.4 per cent to 41.4 per cent while the Liberals were up from 37.7 per cent to 41.0 per cent, with the Greens up from 11.1 per cent to 14.4 per cent. The Liberal two-party swing was 3.1 per cent.
A couple of other updates are in order:
• As most of you are aware, a recount began today in McEwen following Labor candidate Rob Mitchell’s six vote win over Liberal member Fran Bailey. Progressive results will not be posted, so I guess we all just have to wait a week until the AEC tells us what has happened.
• In other close result news, rechecking has reduced Liberal member Andrew Laming’s lead in Bowman to just 64 votes, although there does not seem to be any dispute that he has won the seat.
• A definitive result in O’Connor will have to await a full distribution of preferences, which to my limited knowledge is yet to be published in any electorate. There still remains a mathematical possibility that Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner can overhaul Labor’s Dominic Rose with Greens and other preferences and then defeat Liberal member Wilson Tuckey on Labor preferences. However, the possibility has been diminished by a weak Nationals performance on declaration votes, which has reduced their election night total of 18.4 per cent to 17.7 per cent, leaving a 2.7 per cent deficit against Labor that will need to be closed through Greens and other minor party preferences.
• Two other strong performances by independents should be noted. In Calare, Gavin Priestley might overtake Labor on preferences and leave John Cobb of the Nationals with a fairly narrow win on two-candidate preferred. However, Cobb’s 48.5 per cent primary vote is high enough that he does not face a serious prospect of defeat. In neighbouring Parkes, independent Tim Horan has polled 20.7 per cent. This is unlikely to be enough for him to overhaul Labor’s 25.4 per cent on preferences, which is just as well for Nationals candidate Mark Coulton who has pulled up short of a primary vote majority on 46.8 per cent.
379 Comments
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What on earth?
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22919020-5001021,00.html
Crikey Whitey,
I’m aware of instances where staff at nursing homes have voted at the mobile booth, admittedly at a State election. For such voters, it became a de facto pre-poll booth.
Even if this explanation is relevant, it would hardly explain the scale of the extra votes you quote, so perhaps MayoFeral’s (#191) observation is right (unless we are all corrected by an authority such as Antony).
Ah i see, the actual photo in question is here:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/is-this-maxines-sharon-stone-moment/2007/12/13/1197135641055.html
Filters for mentions of certain religions and their practitioners are justified on utilitarian grounds: they have blocked a number of unpleasant statements that could otherwise have lingered for many long hours. I have no problem with regular customers artfully sidestepping these blocks. Prozac, casino, roulette are there to block spam, and there will probably be further additions here as the problem gets steadily worse. “Corrupt” isn’t there any more. I guess I can remove “Tully” now.
Disallowed Key Characters$Version
Does anyone here know what the means?
Every time I attempt to access the GG threads of Janet and the ilk this comes up.
I warned Mitchell that if I’m blocked, then my legal team will have him and his toe-rag!!!
If this is indeed the case…HIHO, it’s off to court we go.
Scaper, you dont actually have any right to comment on The Oz site, or any other non-government site for that matter. They owns it, they sets the rules and we all gets to lump it.
Property rights in action.
Scaper why do you bother, let them speak for the conservatives of Australia!
You may disagree with them but i bet you have nothing constructive to put on their blogs but rubbish and insults.
I dont suppose you favour like Crickeys editor to sack conservative journalists???
Re: McKew Photo. I knew something was up when my paper was stolen this morning.
I don’t insult anyone Glen….not even you mate.
And I also believe what I have to say is fairly good rubbish.
Possum, please explain why Chris Mitchell backed down and ensured that I got through when I suggested going down the legal path about three months ago???
Anyway, I just wanted to read the discussion but was denied that!!!
What’s next denying myself to access to the main page?
This cuts deep into my belief on implied free speech.
James J, and I thought we poll Bludgers had no life!
Maybe this was the reason they let me back there?
I propose to forward a copy of your correspondence to my colleague
Senator Joe Ludwig MP, the Shadow Attorney General for his
consideration.
Scarper, I don’t think they jump at shadows.
Glen, Guy Rundle has a point. If the Australian Op-Ed section is going to turn into a circle-jerk of historical ideological anachronism, they will not only lose a few eyeballs, but they will lose a great deal of influence – which isn’t good for the paper since they have already lost a fair bit of that as it is.
There is nothing wrong with conservatives – but having half a dozen of them inflected with a bad case of the clones, and where the only way you can tell the difference between them is by paying close attention to the by-line…. well it all seems a little pointless really.
Even conservatives have to move with the times – if that only means finding some new ones that can spin the same arguments in a new way, so be it. But it would certainly help your cause and the quality of public discourse generally if they could find a few whose opinions were not only distinguishable between each other, but that could make arguments that are relevant to today in a world that has simply moved on.
When I open up The Oz, I expect some decent, weighty and challenging opinion, not some ideological rabble left navel gazing and bitching about past battles long lost. The last thing that conservatism in this country needs is for it to be dominated by a commentariat vending machine with only one flavour – you put in the coin, you pull the handle and you know exactly what you’re going to get…..The same thing as last time.
Scaper – “being nice is being efficient” would explain it pretty well.
On the subject of territory senators, the High Court did say they would look at the constitutionality of allowing full Senate representation to the territories if the numbers of senators were increased. Still, I find it hard to imagine a modern court could decide the territories shouldn’t be represented in the Senate by members with full voting rights.
Personally, I think both chambers are too small particularly in comparison to other nations’ parliaments. I’d increase the number of senators in each state and territory by 2 (with 1 extra elected at each election). This would also make it less likely for a party to gain control of both chambers.
Andrew Robb, charged with reviewing what went wrong with the Liberals, believes the party needs “major surgery” .
http://news.theage.com.au/liberal-party-needs-major-surgery-robb/20071213-1gsv.html
The major surgery could have been done by the electorate 3 weeks ago but they flinched.
Now the festering pustulating sores in the libs and nats will continue to poison them, theydo not have the courage to cut them out themselves.
Speaking of The Oz, Caroline Overington no longer seems to have a blog. When did they take down her page?
While you here, Possum. This is a partial, edited by me, transcript of the Media Report, ABC Today.
Antony Funnell: And even at The Australian, we saw a change bringing in more blogs..?
Amanda Meade: Yes changed completely .. reporters often have to file immediately for the internet site..
Antony Funnell: ..serious breaking news coming first to online sites; is that the future?
Margaret Simons: Yes..will be exceptions… now we’re talking about instant news.. not new for ..organisations like AAP ABC and radio generally..is new for print media.
..not only about mainstream news organisations. ..this year has also been the first and the first election campaign, in which blogs and independent internet publishing have had an impact. It’s still a small impact, I’m not suggesting that it wins or loses elections, but it is there.
..best example is probably the analysis of public opinion polls, on a couple of key blog sites, superior to any offered by mainstream media. So even though the mainstream media own the polls, I don’t think they necessarily did the best analysis. That was being done by academics with blogs.
Antony Funnell: And how do you think media practitioners, journalists, have adapted to this change. …we’re a precious lot sometimes, and we often feel quite threatened don’t we?
Margaret Simons: ..Certainly we saw The Australian and Dennis Shanahan in particular, react extraordinarily defensively to criticism of their analysis of public opinion polls, that was at that stage only on a couple of sites, and ..I probably wouldn’t have been aware if it hadn’t been for Dennis’ reaction. ..symptomatic of increase over the years ahead..But mainstream media can no longer assume theirs will be the only voice. The gatekeeper function is no longer there as powerfully..
Amanda Meade: ..newspapers have a lot to learn from comments readers post online on news stories and on blogs, because often a paper will run a campaign, or take a particular view, then the public will respond totally against the view of the paper, and this happened with The Telegraph with the Stan Zemanek and Mike Carlton fight, and you find that the readers of The Telegraph were actually taking a different view to the editorial of the paper, which I find fascinating.
The transcript has lots of interesting discussion about Telstra, which I might put on your site, rather than here.
Link is http://www.abc.net.au/rn/mediareport/stories/2007/2114804.htm#transcript
Think program is replayed tonight.
The more senators per state, the more chance of minor parties getting in. In the past I would have said that the majors would dislike such a situation. But given that the ALP is unlikely to ever get a majority and the Liberals did not have a great success with their majority (over reaching with WorkChoices), I suspect that it is not such unpopular idea with either party at the moment.
Also any one else here the news about the ACT Liberals changing leaders today? Given that there are only 6 members left, do they all get a turn?
Last time I heard she was heading for Paris, Grog. On leave rather departing permanently though it seemed, for worst or worser.
Cheers
Rod
Crikey, that sounds interesting. Ta for the heads up, might go and have a listen
If this is indeed the case…HIHO, it’s off to court we go.
I retract this comment for the time being.
There is another tactic that I will utilise….now is not the opportunity.
#
199
William Bowe Says:
December 13th, 2007 at 5:49 pm
I don’t know Ron, they must have had words in them that triggered my moderation filters, which serve to block spam and ensure compliance with various stupid laws we have in this country. They were unblocked not all that long after you posted them.
TO WILLIAM BOWE
the below was my blog which I input at 12.15 PM !!
immediately words appeared at the top: “under moderation” or he like
My blog was held in moderation for an hour till 1.20 PM
then the words “under moderation” disappeared and the blog showed as 1.20PM
My blog’s words were not changed and is listed below
what are offending words below ? (’Ron’ or ‘Liberal’ or both)
#
152
Ron Says:
December 13th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
Will our election process become gradually subject to CORRUPTION by election
2,515,254 Australians did NOT go to a polling booth to vote (20%)
Historically it WAS harder to get to the polling booths due to lack of cars/transport
Today it is easier to get to the polling booths but less are going
The result is that postal votes alone have grown 28% from the 2001 election
(form 4.28% of the total vote in 2001 to 5.46% in 2007)
My TWO fears are that the 27% increase in postal votes on the Total Count
1/ may be a higher % in “marginal’ seats
2/ may in part be caused by Party’s “encouraging” or “soliciting” such behaviour
Numerous possible “corrupt” consequences can follow INCREASING by election:
a/ may allow Party’s to ’solicit’ block votes in nursing homes, retirement villages
b/ may allow Party’s to gain otherwise Booth ‘donkey votes’ as HTV direct votes
c/ may place Party officials in position to decide if to onpost applic. or votes
Some but NOT ALL of these problems would be overcome by restricting the right to post postal applications by the aec alone
Ah, Maxine. Beauty, brains and a great pair of pins. How will Mr McKew, aka Bob Hogg , know he’s fallen off his perch when he must already wake every morning thinking he’s died and gone to heaven?
220 Rod – yeah I heard she was “on leave” and off to the Weekend Oz Magazine. But I’m still surprised they have taken down her old blogs… Certainly does suggest more than just a holiday – and that they weren’t all that impressed with her 24 Nov behaviour.
Increasing the number of Senators elected by each state to 14, which is the minumum enlargement possible, would give us 84 state-elected Senators, which would permit the Reps to be enlarged to 168, give or take a few – the High Court would probably accept 170. That would give an average enrolment of 80,000, against the current 91,000 (although the smaller enrolments in Tasmania would push that figure up a bit).
The problem is that this would mean the creation of 32 new federal politicians, which would mean 32 new electorate offices, 128 new electorate office staff, 32 new allocations of stationery, printing, postage, phones etc etc. Enlarging the Reps by 20 would also mean 20 more AEC Divisional offices, staff, etc etc. The cost, while very small compared to 24 useless Super Hornets at $125m a pop, would be fairly substantial, and you can bet that the Coalition would run a populist “no more politicians” campaign against it, as they did in 1984.
B.S. Fairman @ 208 et al
This ACTer will hang head in shame for our local rag *sniff*
Methinx CanTimes really should stick to covering nasty car accidents on the Parkway and roo culls at the War Memorial.
Meanwhile, it is confusing for us Canberrans when we have headlines like “Opposition in turmoil” – never know which one they mean?
Ho-Hum stepdown speech by Billy and Jacqui
Never knew this new young bloke *whatsisnameagain*
bit of a forgettable face (and name)
and with yet another “best transitions” for “generational change” speech, (what is it about Liberals jumping on the “youth and experience” bandwagon – you’d think by bnow, they could come up something *original* in their Leadership stoushes..)
with a monotone “they will be held accountable for their record”.
going up against our sweet Jon-Boy for next year’s election,
Perhaps yet another forgettable Liberal defeat as it was in 2004?
Re: The Mysterious Case of the Votes and the Nursing Home.
Thanks for input, so far. I’m checking out a couple of things, including as suggested. MayoFeral, the only problem I have with what you suggest is that the AEC specifically nominates the name and address of the Home, rather than suggesting it covers more than one address. As with the other locations visited by one of these teams eg Repat. As far as I know, and am +99% sure, the home in question has no other operating outlet, if I can put it like that.
The owner did have another in another electorate, but that was closed for reasons similar to my earlier indicated.
There is another home near me, which I cannot identify in AEC. So I’ll check that out. Could be postals, I suppose.
Are the postals, absents, prepolls as listed on the AEC site I am looking broken down any further than currently shown?
Actually, looking at all those figures, I am quite pleased with Nicole’s performance. Guessing at the booths which I thought would have swung her way,(primaries) before I looked, the results were very pleasing. Next Time!
I may trouble to add up all the Greens, Indep and Dem Primaries as well.
Oops, sorry William, should have waited till your SA Post Match.
BSF,
They’ve still got Vicki Dunne and Steve Pratt up their sleeve.
WHy did the coaliton order totally useless planes against all expert advice?
These, and other inquiries coming to a front page near you!
I am looking forward to the first QT next year: “My question is to the Minister for Defence. I ask the minister: is it the case that Australia has spent three billion dollars on 24 useless Super Hornet jet aircraft? Is it the case that these aircraft were bought against all expert advice? Can the Minister advise who was responsible for this irresponsible decision?”
Tassieannie, back at 190. I wasn’t bagging Scottsdale per se, just offering a comment on some of him indoors rellies who live there who I found passing strange. And not to put too fine a point on it, there are folk in my own family who are even more strange, and they vote! One of the things I’ve found so informative about William’s site during the looong election is, not only the diversity of analysis and opinion available, but also the depth and breadth of knowledge of contributors.
Ron, I think Adam mentioned that “corrupt” might trigger the moderation filter.
He has now removed that trigger
Adam, the first question time will be interesting:
How will Rudd perform?
How many questions on environment (but sort of on climate change) will be asked of Garrett?
How will Abbott cope without a friendly speaker?
How often will the ALP refer to the 3 wise men (Costello, Downer and Ruddock) on the back row?
Who will be the first shadow Minister to be destroyed by Julia?
How often will the dodgy Liberal Party leadership vote get a mention?
How loud will the “hear hears’ be when the speaker first calls for the Member for Bennelong?
adam don’t you mean EX DEFENSE MINISTER now leader of the opposition?
235 libsrok – I assume Adam’s question was a dorothy dixer.
sorry i’m a idiot
It’s not really fair that the boys can do it, when Jen says she was told off for ‘gloating,’ over what I don’t know, and no doubt I am entirely off the mark, but I am thinking ‘Young Ladies may Do Well to Emulate the Outstanding Demeanour of the Mss Gillard and McKew, Exemplars of Grace in Victory.’
How many billions of dollars of useless crud did the former Govt buy from Boeing? What was the role of Andrew Peacock and his close ties to the former Govt?
Poor Horatio Half Hornet Nelson.
I almost feel sorry for him – nah I fibbed. 
The ‘Courious Snail’ is reporting that the Queensland senate seats have been finalised.
LABOR and the Coalition will have three senators each in Queensland after the close of the count today.
Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) state manager Anne Bright said the count, which was scrutinised by representatives for the candidates and parties, was completed today.
Sitting Labor senators John Hogg and Claire Moore were returned, with new ALP candidate Mark Furner securing the third seat.
Sitting Liberal Party senators Ian Macdonald and Sue Boyce were returned, as was veteran Nationals senator Ron Boswell.
Australian Democrats deputy leader Andrew Bartlett lost his seat. The Senate will sit in its existing form until June 30 next year.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22919019-3102,00.html
No surprises that Bartlett lost his seat. He is obviously a zombie:
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/bartlett.jpg
But I’m still waiting for PAUL KAVANAGH to acknowledge that I was CORRECT in predicting that the Democrats would lose all their seats and that no Democrat candidate anywhere would poll 5% of the vote, and to retract his various nasty remarks aimed at me over these predictions. WHERE ARE YOU PAUL?
217 Grog- Yeah I noticed that too today. Pretty sure it was there earlier in week. There was an article in the Age with this “Now word from insiders at The Oz is that Overington will no longer be writing cracking news stories for the paper but moved to a role on the weekend magazine. They say it’s the cushiest form of purgatory around.”
I’m going to buy “Kickback” in memorial. Actually, I just read “Dark Victory” which was fantastic. I hope Roxon sacks Jane Halton soon.
205 scaper…
“Disallowed Key Characters”
Usually this means you have a corrupt cookie. Delete cookies and try again.
You can test using Firefox or Safari vs IE to narrow down the problem if you really want to.
I’ve seen this occur accessing pages through the Opinion 1-6 feature on the Oz top right.
In other words it is a coding error, not them trying to stop you posting.
Diogenese @242: I hope Roxon sacks Jane Halton soon.
*ditto* from me on that, but what’s your beef with JH?
242 Diogenese are you referring to her days as head of the “People smuggling Taskforce”?
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2002/s535129.htm
Adam, I recall your prediction, agreed with it then, and moreover said they weren’t to be mourned.
All 100% correct.
The only exception is Bartlett. I like Bartlett myself. He should join the Greens. Jeez, I’ll have a word to Drew Hutton myself. Then we’d have a real gold shot at a QLD senator in 2010.
http://www.c.overington is not dead, just buried:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php
The decision to buy the FA-18 super hornets was off course political but as someone who knows a little of these things i can rationlise the thinking.
the jsf-35 is a dog of a aircraft it was forced onto the us. armed forces because of budget concerns .
Howard & nelson signed up to a partnership to help fund it
Most of our military harware & sotware is programed into the us. comps
this includes weapons,guidence,support
support is a big one
there are a lot better planes out there to buy the typhoon eu. community and thr russkis new sukoiuh but without the software are shit
the labour party are left with this shit but it’s the fault of the libs to buy us. abd forget about the rest
ask nelson why
Rain,
Jane Halton was Max Moore-Wilton’s 2-i-c in PM&C and head of the People Smuggling Taskforce.
She had a lead role in the children overboard lies and was less than co-operative at the Senate inquiry.
I read Dark Victory and thoroughly agree with the barrel-dweller.
Lefty, I doubt the Greens would want a zombie Senator. Anyways the Greens vote has reached its natural ceiling so they aren’t likely to win a Qld Senate seat unless we have a DD. The only Dem who could or should make a comeback is NSD. She should wait a decent interval then join either the Greens or the ALP.
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