With electorate results progressively being declared, I will start appending my election guide entries with overviews of results for each seat. All five seats in Tasmania have been declared, so that seems a good place to start.
Bass provided Labor supporters with cause for nagging doubt during the early part of the count, with the smaller booths outside Launceston delivering a seemingly insufficient swing. In Scottsdale the swing to Labor was below the required 2.6 per cent, and Liberal member Michael Ferguson in fact picked up a small swing in Bridport. The turning point came when the big Launceston booths began to report, with Labor swings as high as 7.6 per cent at Summerhill and 8.1 per cent in Newnham. The other notable feature of the result was a big surge to the Greens who were able to monopolise the anti-pulp mill vote, pushing their support up from 8.1 per cent to 15.3 per cent at the expense of both major parties. This was reasonably consistent throughout the electorate with the interesting exception of Scottsdale, where the increase was only 0.8 per cent. Nothing particularly remarkable happened in George Town, the centre closest to the actual site of the mill.
The pattern of voting across Braddon was remarkably similar to the 2001 election, with voters reverting to type after the convulsion of Labor’s forestry policy in 2004. A large number of booths have produced double-digit swings first one way and then the other, including Acton in Burnie and East Devonport, along with the smaller town booths of Montague, Latrobe, Smithton. Coastal centres outside of the big towns, such as Wynyard, Somerset, Penguin and Ulverstone, followed relatively small swings to Liberal in 2004 with relatively small swings to Labor this time. However, Sid Sidebottom’s overall margin of 1.4 per cent (from a two-party swing of 2.6 per cent) is substantially lower than his 6.0 per cent from 2001. Predictions that the Mersey Hospital would boost the Liberals in Davenport at the expense of a backlash in Burnie received fairly modest support, Burnie collectively swinging 4.4 per cent compared with 1.2 per cent in Davenport. Despite a quite healthy lift on the Greens’ primary vote from 5.6 per cent to 8.1 per cent, Braddon remains their weakest Tasmanian seat.
Lyons produced a superficially status quo result, except that Liberal renegade Ben Quin gouged 9.6 per cent of the primary vote directly at the Liberals’ expense. However, this obscures big swings to Labor concentrated in the southern part of the electorate, particularly just outside Hobart at Brighton and New Norfolk. The 1.3 per cent lift in the Greens’ vote was the smallest in the state, presumably because much of the pulp mill protest vote was absorbed by Quin. Both major parties were slightly down slightly on the primary vote in Denison, the slack being taken up by a 4.0 per cent lift for the Greens. This converted into a 2.3 per cent two-party swing to Labor. Franklin was one of only four seats in the country to swing to the Coalition, due to the loss of retiring Harry Quick’s personal vote and perhaps also lingering static surrounding Kevin Harkins’ disendorsement. The Labor primary vote was down from 46.4 per cent to 41.4 per cent while the Liberals were up from 37.7 per cent to 41.0 per cent, with the Greens up from 11.1 per cent to 14.4 per cent. The Liberal two-party swing was 3.1 per cent.
A couple of other updates are in order:
• As most of you are aware, a recount began today in McEwen following Labor candidate Rob Mitchell’s six vote win over Liberal member Fran Bailey. Progressive results will not be posted, so I guess we all just have to wait a week until the AEC tells us what has happened.
• In other close result news, rechecking has reduced Liberal member Andrew Laming’s lead in Bowman to just 64 votes, although there does not seem to be any dispute that he has won the seat.
• A definitive result in O’Connor will have to await a full distribution of preferences, which to my limited knowledge is yet to be published in any electorate. There still remains a mathematical possibility that Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner can overhaul Labor’s Dominic Rose with Greens and other preferences and then defeat Liberal member Wilson Tuckey on Labor preferences. However, the possibility has been diminished by a weak Nationals performance on declaration votes, which has reduced their election night total of 18.4 per cent to 17.7 per cent, leaving a 2.7 per cent deficit against Labor that will need to be closed through Greens and other minor party preferences.
• Two other strong performances by independents should be noted. In Calare, Gavin Priestley might overtake Labor on preferences and leave John Cobb of the Nationals with a fairly narrow win on two-candidate preferred. However, Cobb’s 48.5 per cent primary vote is high enough that he does not face a serious prospect of defeat. In neighbouring Parkes, independent Tim Horan has polled 20.7 per cent. This is unlikely to be enough for him to overhaul Labor’s 25.4 per cent on preferences, which is just as well for Nationals candidate Mark Coulton who has pulled up short of a primary vote majority on 46.8 per cent.
379 Comments
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Rain and Grog- ViggoP is spot on. Jane Halton epitomises what went wrong with the public service under the Rodent. “Frank and fearless advice” became “manipulate and cover-up for political gain for your boss at all costs”. I was particularly taken by similarities between her loss of a moral compass and that of doctor involved in the Holocaust. There is an extensive literature on how “good people become evil” and she is a text-book case.
Hmm, getting a swing despite a Ruddslide suggests to me the Greens may got some way to go in solidifying their natural base vote. Will depend on how much envirocred Rudd has 3 yrs hence/
I think you’ll find the Greens will advertise strategic voting Green 1 ALP 2 more seriously than they have, and I moreover wager that every state will be returning a Green senator by 2013.
Agree on NSD.
250
Adam – NSD has had a lot of nasty things to say about the Greens and the ALP, i dont think she’ll want to join your ranks.
253 Don’t hold your breathe waiting for her to join your team Glen.
No steve i wouldn’t want her to join our team. She couldn’t hold a candle to Eric Abetz or Nigel Scullion
Well, she wouldn’t want to burn the hair off his pants-less legs.
That’s right Pancho
255 I suppose you’d be right Glen, she did have a tertiary education so would have little in common with your team.
Well that would be because she is a lefty, yes im glad you agree Steve.
Rudd makes it clear he ain’t no lap dog:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/13/2118468.htm
“An alliance with the United States does not mandate automatic compliance with every aspect of US foreign policy and there are established differences between ourselves,” he said.
“One is well known to us all in Iraq and the second relates to climate change.
“I have made no bones about it in the past that I believe the United States needs to accept its share of the global burden on climate change.”
Comparing NSD to Nigel Scull-it-down and Eric Abetz – words fail me.
How The Washington Post has seen the Bali Conference:
U.S. Strategy Succeeds in Bali
Climate Talks Turn to Efforts Other Than Emissions Targets
And on Rudd:
Even as negotiators wrangled behind closed doors over what specifics could make it into a final resolution, political leaders took the podium to describe ways in which global warming is transforming the global landscape. Australia’s newly elected prime minister, Kevin Rudd, who last week ratified the 1997 Kyoto Protocol as his first official act, told delegates that climate change is no longer an abstract concept in his country. “It is an emerging reality,” Rudd said.
243
Thanks Ed for replying to my query, as I have being feeling despondent because I don’t abuse people and I’ve been racking my brain to understand why I am blocked.
Paranoia was starting to set in regarding a project that I’m developing and my contacts there on both sides are not contactable at the moment.
I will activate a scan and delete the cookies and hope that works, as I was going to contact O’Mahoney on this because of my concerns.
Thanks again mate.
Oh and Adam i forgot to also compare NSD to Julian McGauran.
263 Scaper: Keeping a weather eye on your project. Good luck with it.
Glen I hope you read the story on the front page of today’s Age about the results of Julian McGauran’s disgraceful behaviour. He lives in the same toilet as Tuckey and Heffernan IMHO.
What a dynasty the McGaurans are in Victoria…
The only bad thing about Julian is he is anti-abortion.
Adam you should know i only read the Der Stürmer (Hun) and the Völkischer Beobachter (GG) i rarely touch an Unsere Zeit (Age).
CW @ 228
I just find it curious that some smaller homes get a AEC team while much bigger ones don’t. For eample, the Strathalbyn nursing home with 30 residents had a team, but the 3x larger (about 4x if residents of the independent living units are included) home at Mt Barker didn’t.
Grog i love Labors’ response however, we will wait until the Garnaut review occurs before committing to targets offered.
What if the Garnaut review comes up with a view that significant cutbacks will be damaging to Australias’ economy, therefore Australia will do very little when it comes to Climate Change, it was a simple answer and just shows that at this stage it is just a change in the rhetoric.
Simple answer why wait, Wind and Solar projects can begin straight away.
Re Franklin (apologies for posting on-topic after the first page, which is probably illegal) it was on the radar as a likely rogue seat when Kevin Harkins was the candidate and at one stage I posted a prediction that Harkins would beat Goodwin 51:49. But with him out of the way it seemed obvious that the Libs were out of oxygen and would not make many inroads, especially with Labor shadowing Goodwin by also picking a youngish female candidate.
200-vote polls don’t mean much but two of them thrown together with Labor averaging 62.5% 2PP didn’t offer much by way of threat of a swing to the Libs, yet it happened. Goodwin was a very good candidate for the Libs on the western shore side of the electorate (which is why the swings back to Labor in the timber booths are mostly modest rather than double figures) and campaigned for the seat for a long time. She also did surprisingly well in some areas that I would have thought were hopeless for her as a rather “intellectual” candidate – 7% swing to the Liberals in Bridgewater when Brighton just up the road had a massive swing to Labor. It looks like the late start to Collins’ campaign and the endless Harry Quick saga did do the Labor vote some harm.
I can only wonder how much damage was done to Goodwin’s campaign by Abetz fans making unspecified personal insinuations about her failure to reproduce while pushing the preselection cause of one Daniel Muggeridge, who I got on well with during his anti-compulsory-unionism days at the Tas University Union, but who hadn’t raised a blip on the political radar anywhere in about a decade since then. I do not hold Muggeridge himself responsible for the slurs and doubt he had any foreknowledge of them. Perhaps had the Abetz faction not been almost as much in self-destruct mode as Labor was when preselecting Harkins, it could have been a little bit closer still.
Another political dynasty, oh politics the people who end up in Canberra consist of family members or appartchiks.
Eric Abetz is an embaressment to tasmania and Trust me it takes alot to stand out of the crowd of embaressments we have. He is filth thats political career only endures due to above the line voting. If he thinks he is so popular maybe he should quit the senate and run for Franklin or even better Denison.
What was the story about? Is it on The Age website?
In reguards to franklin i would also suggest there was more at play than Quick and Harkins. A cynical demand for pork. I assure you that next election i would expect that labors vote will substantially decrease futher. Southern Tasmanians resent all the goodies th undeserving less and more sparcley populated north get just because they have marginal seats.(yet they continue to ungreatfully winge all the time). If you had read The Muckery(Mercury) in the lead up to the federal election, there was alot about wanting to become more marginal for pork barelling.
ShowsOn its about an old abortion case you’ll find here
Phillip Adams was talking to Mungo MacCallum on LNL, mainly about his new book. Had some interesting things to say about Howard and his legacy.
You can probably catch it on the LNL website. There’s a repeat tomorrow at 4pm on Radio National.
Thanks.
@230 Lefty E Says:
Well I know nothing whatsoever about jet fighter aircraft but The Concatenate News Blog has an interesting article “Some thoughts on why we bought the Super Hornets” which says inter alia:
More at http://www.theconcat.com.au/live/?p=2549
251 Diogenes Says: Jane Halton epitomises what went wrong with the public service under the Rodent.
*nodding*, Tell me about it, and then to top it off, she was promoted???
And pulled over her sidekicks in the affair, to litter the Health SES with more useless extra baggage.
but recently 2 new DSs recruited, making 4 DS’s – unusual to have so many, and a couple of previously “retired” SES, have returned as ’special advisors’ *grin*
As much I would do my squirmy dance to see her go, and fast (and don’t forget to take your garbage with you on your way out) Rudd & Co seem to be going slowly on PS movements. Last I saw, Nicola Roxon expressed support for her, but that may have been the usual always show good manners in public etc.
265
Thanks Ed.
I’m humbly confident and you know what?….the support base is growing to a point that a structure is forming on a voluntary basis.
The input is very encouraging indeed.
scaper…
Albert,
Interesting article about the Hornets, seems to be saying they weren’t such a bad choice after all.
I guess the Andrew Peacock connection may make it hard for Nelson, anyway, even if the choice was justifiable according to some observers.
You missed the point
The Su 27 flown by the Indonesia pilots WILL be able to see the Super Hornet
The Aussie Super Hornet pilots WILL NOT be able to see their enemy
Our Airforce will be demolished overnight
( at least Peacock got a good bonus)
Israel can get the F22 from the US , so should we
Ron,
Ok, not my area of expertise by any stretch.
Did you read the article that was linked to?
Dyno
Peacock’s pitch was (and it was true) ;
The Super Hornet can fly further than the Russian SU 27
and can carry a greater payload
But the SU27 will not be seen by the Super Hornet pilots ,
so the Super Hornets will get blown out of the sky
Geez i love it how people talk of Russian and American weapons as if they are the “only” options that exist. It is “Either” “Or”. What about the Eurofighter Typhoon? JAS 39 Gripen? Dassault Rafale?
The Eurofighter Typhoon seems pretty capable to me
And when do we expect to be having this war with Indonesia? I suppose if Nelson ever became PM it would be a risk, since he would want to justify these expensive toys by using them, but otherwise I can’t really see it. Indonesia is now a reasonably healthy democracy and democracies generally don’t have wars with each other. My point was not that one expensive plane is better than another, but that they are all generically useless. What the ADF needs is more soldiers on the ground, more transport capacity to move then around quickly, and also more ships and sailors to sail them. With whom exactly is Australia ever likely to be fighting an air war?
Agree totally Adam(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)…
Aren’t there McDonalds in Indonesia and that therefore McDonald’s Rule would apply?
Adam if we had nuclear weapons we wouldn’t need to spend so much on defence except for rapid response units so as to protect our zone of influence in Asia/Pacific.
Ron, Israel needs F-22s we don’t.
Dyno et al have a look here for a considered opinion re bangs for bucks and no doubt the opening dorothy dixer for the Kokoda Kid & Ms Hornette at the first QT in 08…
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/flying-into-trouble/2006/12/29/1166895477918.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Cheers
Somebody posted the following link when this topic was being discussed a while ago.
http://www.ausairpower.net/jsf.html
My completely naive view is that whenever the Americans decide to bomb some poor bastard back to the stone age as they so gleefully put it, the job is pretty much done before the Hornets et al turn up on our tv screens.
It seems to me that what we need are some B52s to launch cruise missiles from at high altitude. We also need some of those Sukhois to defend our own sea-air gap from conventional forces. This seems the cheaper, more reliable option.
Xmas knives out for Iemma
And for a non cardigan non Sheridan view try this…
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/there-is-nothing-super-about-this-hornet/2007/03/14/1173722557984.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
What was that about who do you trust?
Cheers
PS will be interesting to see what Kev07 does about this disaster in 08.
The Indonesians are only going to have 8 SU-30s in total you guys we’ll have 24 F-18 SuperHornets + our other F-18s id say we’d take them in less than 10 mins if we had too. The SuperHornets are not crap aircraft you only to compare them with SU-27s and SU-30s.
I think Israel is getting the F-22’s smaller, single engined sibling, the F-35. They’re apparently the priority 1 customer for it too, so we’ll be bumped down the list a bit after manufacturing starts if we end up buying them.
US Congress has outright refused to entertain the thought of selling the F-22 at this stage (and will probably continue to do so for a few years yet) – it’s by far and away the best air-superiority fighter flying today & the USAF will want to hold on to that advantage for some time yet.
It will eventually get exported – in the late 70’s the F-15 was the top fighter in the US inventory & its now its flying with many airforces and is even being made overseas.
The Superhornet saga seems to be quite a popular topic on this forum – there’s lots of good stuff on this website: http://www.ausairpower.net/ for those that are interested.
Glen, just when the Christmas spirit begins to descend on me, and in the warm glow of it’s influence I begin to forgive you for some of your more repulsive thought processes, you snap me back to reality with a post such as 289. Nuclear weapons indeed.
Scotty (274) – good point, I suspect there’s something in that which you say.
Indonesia plans to acquire 48-54 Su-30 over the next decade. Currently they have 4, and by the end of 2009 they’ll have 10-16. Malaysia has purchased 18 (not yet delivered). India will eventually build about 180 of them. China 250+.
Gee, we are talking weapons that ultimately reek collateral damage.
Be shore to kiss your loved ones tonight.
And don’t give me this shit about protecting our nation!!!
You know the problem folks…we are working from the result backwards…if this could be realised in true chronological fashion, then a better outcome could realised.
More rubbish.
scaper…
MayoFeral at 268 re my 228
‘I just find it curious that some smaller homes get a AEC team while much bigger ones don’t. For example, the Strathalbyn nursing home with 30 residents had a team, but the 3x larger (about 4x if residents of the independent living units are included) home at Mt Barker didn’t’.
Noted, MayoFeral. Hence my reference to Repat. Seems a bit odd. Look at the other ‘Team’ on the AEC site. They are few, given.
Apart from anything else, I too wondered why the smaller outfits were, attended to, whereas the larger are not featured and do not have a ‘Team’ on the AEC site.
Still no idea on the the discrepancy I began with.
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