The verdict from the McEwen recount is in: Labor candidate Rob Mitchell’s six vote win has been overturned, and Liberal member Fran Bailey declared re-elected by just 12 votes. This gives the result level pegging with the Liberals’ 1974 win in Stirling as the closest federal electorate result of modern times. Labor is still considering a legal challenge, but it’s an open question as to whether a re-match would really be in their interests. It seems very likely that we can now settle on a final result of 83 seats for Labor and 65 for the Coalition plus two independents. Two other recount demands await adjudication:
• The Greens will reportedy call for a recount for the Victorian Senate, a contentious move given that nearly 3.3 million ballots would need to be rechecked. Antony Green’s projection shows both the Coalition and Labor winning third seats upon the exclusion of eighth placed Family First, the Liberals doing so with a surplus of 21709 votes (0.68 per cent) and Labor with 6088 (0.19 per cent). At this point Greens candidate Richard di Natale is left stranded on 13.4 per cent, 0.9 per cent or 27804 votes short of a quota. This of course assumes that all votes are cast above the line, when there are in fact 65101 (2.05 per cent) below-the-line votes for which we presently have only first preference results. These are unlikely to make much difference, as most are votes for parties whose preference tickets favoured the Greens ahead of Labor. Much of the leakage would come from Liberals going below the line to ensure the Greens did not get their vote. Against this can be weighed Labor voters who gave their first preference to a Labor candidate before switching to the Greens, but past experience suggests this is unlikely to account for more than 10 per cent out of 14123. If the assumption of all votes behaving as ticket votes were to hold, the Greens would need for Labor to finish around 2000 votes below the quota after Family First’s exclusion, which is roughly 8000 less than they presently appear to have. The distribution of the Liberal surplus would then be enough to give di Natale the narrowest of victories. In support of their recount appeal, Greens spokesman Jim Buckell provided The Age with an interesting list of claimed irregularities: “309 Greens Senate votes from one booth were not recorded at all; in Isaacs 150 votes were missed; in Dunkley 173 Greens votes were recorded as 17; and in Gellibrand, some Greens votes were attributed to another minor party”. However, it seems most unlikely that the required average of around 215 votes per electorate would be found to have wrongly favoured Labor over the Greens.
• Labor candidate Jason Young’s request for a recount in Bowman following his 64-vote defeat has been knocked back by the divisional returning officer. Young is continuing to pursue his recount request further up the Australian Electoral Commission hierarchy, but one suspects he is unlikely to find any joy.
On a completely unrelated note, here is a chart I knocked together showing each state’s deviation from the national Labor two-party preferred vote going back to 1949.
The first thing to note is the hyperactivity of Tasmania, which can in large part be put down to its small population of five seats. Nonetheless, the results tell a story of a natural Labor state which turned around temporarily following the Whitlam government’s tariff cuts and Labor’s opposition to the Franklin dam at the 1983 election. The largest state by contrast has stayed within a narrow 5 per cent band on the Labor side of the ledger, dipping below the line only in 1987 and 1998. Victoria’s long-lost standing as the jewel in the Liberal crown looks very much like a symptom of the 1954 Labor split and the party’s subsequent paralysis at state level, and its Labor vote has only once fallen below the national result since 1980. The exception was the 1990 election which also proved aberrant for reliably conservative Queensland, state government factors providing the explanation in each case. It can also be seen that the Coalition’s relative strength in Western Australia at the 2007 election was matched only by 1961, there is nothing new about its conservative leaning.
On another completely unrelated note, I have just had to pay a fee to renew the pollbludger.com domain. This wasn’t hugely expensive ($50 to be precise), but it nonetheless offers a good excuse to pass the hat around among those of you who enjoy giving me money.
489 Comments
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Regardless of our political persuasions i admire the fact that the vast majority of people who post here have a genuine interest in politics especially since nowadays so few people are involved and keep up to date on political issues.
Why i may disagree with some of your political positions i cannot fault you candor anyway we’ll have a possible new conservative party and Parliament’s first sitting early next year so there will be much to discuss here.
We are very lucky that we have William so to him and to you all take care and let’s bring it on in 2008!
Adam,
I hate to be precious as you know ,
but the Elephant stamps are mine to dispense.
however I am happy to take nominations for Elephant Stamp awards for the 2007 election campaign.
The categories are:
Biggest Loser
Biggest Loser’s Removelist ( I nominate our own KB)
Biggest Loser’s Treasurer
Biggest loser’s Best Friend (who is President of the United States of America, but not for much longer)
Biggest Loser who is tony Abbott
Biggest Winner who is the new PM (although i can’t get used to it when they say it as an introduction on the radio as I grit my teeth waiting for yet another Howardism)
Biggest Winner for best Blog Site ( i nominate PollBludger.)
Robert Berglund: in the pay of the Liberal Party?
Jen,can we also have some categories for the bloggers?
Some real gems that draw me back to this site.
BTW
I did not do the frowning face thing.
Jen, if you put put an opening bracket immediately after a colon, it shows the frowning face emoticon. I have removed the colon.
Yay.
now I know how to do it. I’ve spent a year almost with no idea.
Jen I was unaware you had a monopoly on elephant stamps. I think you will find that elephant stamps were deregulated some years ago under the national competition policy.
I have already nominated the biggest loser of the election: The Hon Peter Costello, the man who waited for eleven years to be handed the prime ministership on a plate.
The biggest winner was whoever thought of the “Kevin07″ gimmick – it was brilliant.
Jude @ 231
What about
Conservative and Right-wing-nutters Australia Party
for the name. It certainly has the correct acronym.
BTW William
please don’t remove a colon without permission.
297 [Oh and Adam is Labor is so much better at running the health system why is our health system a mess considering every state and territory is Labor???]
Nice try,Glen. For the umpteenth time, it is because of the underfunding of the health system from the Commonwealth Government which has slashed health funding to the States for years.
Adam pet,
I think you’ll find that I awarded the inaugural gold elephant stamps to somone on the the last thread. Despite deregulation.
Best Blogger awards go to IMHOP:
Glen ( and all who sail in her name)
Stephen Kaye for annoying me the most
ferny Grover
Bushfire Bill
Adam (despite poor attitude to Greens even though we helped win the election)
Julie (despite the fact that she’s American)
Greeensborough growler
generic person
General Oracle
Possum (of course. celeb that he now is)
Harry
there are so many…..
Jen, I personally would endorse two gold elephant stamps for Glen. One for tenacity and one for the part he played in helping to ensure a Labor victory.
Crikey Whitey,Kirribilli Removals,…
steve @ 311 … don’t know where to begin… that is wrong on so many levels… if you seriously believe that, you need to spend less time on blogs and more time informing yourself.
Commonwealth funding for health has increased 40% in real per capita terms since Howard took office…. so you are talking nonsense
Steve
fair call.
the fact the Glen helped Kevin win is also worth a free set of steak knives.
And a car deodoriser in the shape of a pine-tree to hang off the rear vision mirror.
IMHO.
Megan-
yes, yes.
Can’t believe I didn’t list them.
And let’s not forget The Village of the Banned-
Melb City
Generic Person…
forgot who else. but I know that William you can be ruthless at times.
thankfully.
316 Not according to this report;
• The Australian Government is paying a smaller and smaller share of public hospital costs each
year. In 2000 it contributed 50% of the cost of running and maintaining public hospitals. In 2005
that share had dropped to 45%.
• The Australian Government is now paying about $1.1 billion a year less than recommended by an
independent arbiter. If it paid the full amount recommended, public hospitals around the country
could manage an extra 350,000 admissions a year.
• If the trend continues, then in 20 years’ time the Australian Government’s share of public hospital
funding will have declined to about 25%, and the states’ and territories’ share will have risen to
about 75%. This would affect the states’ and territories’ ability to look after other essential services
such as schools, police, public transport and roads.
http://www.health.nsw.gov.au/pubs/2007/pdf/caring_health_report.pdf
‘in real terms’ measures against inflation. Not the expansion of a sector or the economy. It is about as real as the Santa coming to your place Phil. Only a few more sleeps.
Billbo
why?
Steve – the key word there is “share” of funding. The absolute number as grown dramatically.
The states’ share of funding has grown though, because it is able to fund that from the GST… (previously money that was raised for the Commonwealth through higher income taxes
In other words, total funding for the health sector has grown, but states’ share has risen as it has greater share of revenue than previously due to GST.
States crap on about “share” but it is entirely misleading for the reasons i just explained
@316
Is that in CPI, AWE or Medical-Cost-Increases-Dollars
The percentage those LNP vandals put into the pot decreased when it should have increased. End of story. They wanted a US Health Care System that would gobble up 16+% of our GDP – as if we didn’t have enough problems now as a result of their incompetent, short-sighted and bloody-minded so-called “Economic Management”.
The LNP had no vision, no appreciation of the new order for first world countries. It’s all about investment in Education, Education, Education and in support of our best and brightest in their creative endeavours.
Yesterday’s battle Phil. Get with the program, and your lot might get back in one day.
The reality is that the state governments have done a truly awful job on health in most cases… NSW is the worst example but the others aren’t much better. It will be interesting to watch the reaction of people when 2-3 years from now, or even 4-6 years from now, despite even greater spending, standards continue to be very poor…. it is almost a certain bet that this will be the case
322 [The states’ share of funding has grown though, because it is able to fund that from the GST… (previously money that was raised for the Commonwealth through higher income taxes]
No,Glen, the GST did not replace income taxes and have you or your alter ego Phil the elder got a link to this wild claim. ( I won’t be at all surprised if no link is produced!)
“Commonwealth funding for health has increased 40% in real per capita terms since Howard took office…. so you are talking nonsense”
Pancho
I meant to include you and marky mark.
Steve, i have no intention of providing a link… do your own homework… but the GST was introduced in conjunction with decreased income taxes…. that was the point…. a transfer to a broader based tax system.
Phil-
are you a ruddock?
Shucks, thanks jen.
Phil: ‘do your own homework’?? Aren’t you the duffer making the blunt point?
???
Thought so.
You know- a Ruddock.
Without any emotional or moral connection to the decisons made in your name.
Apparently I was wrong in my earlier post that the new United Conservative Party could pinch the name Monster Raving Loony Party. It appears the MRLP are still going strong in the UK. Screaming Lord Sutch may be gone but his Party survives:
http://www.omrlp.com/
Barry O’F attempting, in not so many words, to show us why he is incapabble of holding that fool Iemma to account:
‘”Only the Iemma government could improve the bottom line by $130 million when revenues had gone up by $1.3 billion,” he told reporters.
“This review underscores the failure of this government, and that is to use windfall tax receipts to improve services and infrastructure across NSW.”‘
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/nsw-taxes-to-bring-in-46-billion/2007/12/19/1197740366779.html
Which is it Baz? Spending too much or not enough?
How long till Watkins takes over? Is that Christmas eve coup rumour for real?
Shame ferny,
but i put forward the suggestion of the Conservative United National Transtate Supporters.
which is obviously wrong of me.
Ruddock (elected 1973) is now the sole parliamentary survivor of the Whitlam era. If he resigns during this parliament, the senior member of the House will be Wilson Tuckey (1980). Those two are the only survivors of the Fraser era. If Tuckey stays until October 2010 he will join the 30-years club. The senior Labor member is now Roger Price (1984), followed by Harry Jenkins (1986). The senior National is Peter McGauran (1983).
In the Senate John Watson (1978) and Robert Ray (1981) will retire on 1 July. Watson will have served exactly 30 years. The senior Senator will then be Ron Boswell (1983). The senior Labor Senator will be John Faulkner (1989).
Wha..?? I’ve recieved a Golden Elephant Stamp from Jen??? I..I..don’t know what to say. I’ve so many to thank…my primary school teachers who guided me in the ways of social democracy and republicanism; my fellow bloggers who maintained the faith…and of course, I’d like to thank God for inventing the Liberal party as a modern pestilence to smite us with when we’re bad….and Labor as a blessing for when we’re good.
Ah Jen…..an apt descriptor indeed
I know Ferny…
it must be hard to receive such an honour.
but let’s not forget that we have Kevin07 to thank for our good fortune, and for all the healthy food that will be in our tuckshops from now on.
And for the fact That Kirrabilli house now belongs back to the people.
So I, for one, will rest easy tonight.
Ferny
thanks -
but it was a bit naughty though.
Kirribilli belongs to the people? It’s going to need an extension.
FG
why?
Jen….naughtiness is now mandatory.
Re Kirribilli’s extension…..to fit all the people in!
just got it.
how to fit 20 million in for dinner…
Thanks Cardster @ 309 (and Ferny Grover, Mathew Cole and Jen (ahem))
If it were in my power to wield the elephant stamp for acronyms (or ESFA)….. you know you’d be right up there …. but whew, I don’t dare tread there (or, in fact, anywhere near elephants).
On a different note, Jen I think the answer to your Q at 295 is the link at 206.
Hi Poll Bludger,
Love your work- especially over the past 2 months- kept the whole thing sensible and kept me sane!
Just wanted to check whether your going to update the pictures in your banner to include Kev and Therese now?
Cheers and thanks.
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