The verdict from the McEwen recount is in: Labor candidate Rob Mitchell’s six vote win has been overturned, and Liberal member Fran Bailey declared re-elected by just 12 votes. This gives the result level pegging with the Liberals’ 1974 win in Stirling as the closest federal electorate result of modern times. Labor is still considering a legal challenge, but it’s an open question as to whether a re-match would really be in their interests. It seems very likely that we can now settle on a final result of 83 seats for Labor and 65 for the Coalition plus two independents. Two other recount demands await adjudication:
• The Greens will reportedy call for a recount for the Victorian Senate, a contentious move given that nearly 3.3 million ballots would need to be rechecked. Antony Green’s projection shows both the Coalition and Labor winning third seats upon the exclusion of eighth placed Family First, the Liberals doing so with a surplus of 21709 votes (0.68 per cent) and Labor with 6088 (0.19 per cent). At this point Greens candidate Richard di Natale is left stranded on 13.4 per cent, 0.9 per cent or 27804 votes short of a quota. This of course assumes that all votes are cast above the line, when there are in fact 65101 (2.05 per cent) below-the-line votes for which we presently have only first preference results. These are unlikely to make much difference, as most are votes for parties whose preference tickets favoured the Greens ahead of Labor. Much of the leakage would come from Liberals going below the line to ensure the Greens did not get their vote. Against this can be weighed Labor voters who gave their first preference to a Labor candidate before switching to the Greens, but past experience suggests this is unlikely to account for more than 10 per cent out of 14123. If the assumption of all votes behaving as ticket votes were to hold, the Greens would need for Labor to finish around 2000 votes below the quota after Family First’s exclusion, which is roughly 8000 less than they presently appear to have. The distribution of the Liberal surplus would then be enough to give di Natale the narrowest of victories. In support of their recount appeal, Greens spokesman Jim Buckell provided The Age with an interesting list of claimed irregularities: “309 Greens Senate votes from one booth were not recorded at all; in Isaacs 150 votes were missed; in Dunkley 173 Greens votes were recorded as 17; and in Gellibrand, some Greens votes were attributed to another minor party”. However, it seems most unlikely that the required average of around 215 votes per electorate would be found to have wrongly favoured Labor over the Greens.
• Labor candidate Jason Young’s request for a recount in Bowman following his 64-vote defeat has been knocked back by the divisional returning officer. Young is continuing to pursue his recount request further up the Australian Electoral Commission hierarchy, but one suspects he is unlikely to find any joy.
On a completely unrelated note, here is a chart I knocked together showing each state’s deviation from the national Labor two-party preferred vote going back to 1949.
The first thing to note is the hyperactivity of Tasmania, which can in large part be put down to its small population of five seats. Nonetheless, the results tell a story of a natural Labor state which turned around temporarily following the Whitlam government’s tariff cuts and Labor’s opposition to the Franklin dam at the 1983 election. The largest state by contrast has stayed within a narrow 5 per cent band on the Labor side of the ledger, dipping below the line only in 1987 and 1998. Victoria’s long-lost standing as the jewel in the Liberal crown looks very much like a symptom of the 1954 Labor split and the party’s subsequent paralysis at state level, and its Labor vote has only once fallen below the national result since 1980. The exception was the 1990 election which also proved aberrant for reliably conservative Queensland, state government factors providing the explanation in each case. It can also be seen that the Coalition’s relative strength in Western Australia at the 2007 election was matched only by 1961, there is nothing new about its conservative leaning.
On another completely unrelated note, I have just had to pay a fee to renew the pollbludger.com domain. This wasn’t hugely expensive ($50 to be precise), but it nonetheless offers a good excuse to pass the hat around among those of you who enjoy giving me money.
489 Comments
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#336
apparently Watkins, the silly bugger, still won’t apostatise
Mnc @ 350, is that a Catholic thing?
He needs to rat on the Socialist Left and join Centre Unity to become premier
It’s inviting to speculate on the further decline of conservative political parties. They are out of office and out of touch. Are they out of prospects too? They apear to have no members, no leaders and no policies. It’s tempting to ask why they bother. Labor, whatever their weaknesses and problems, have made providing modern government their core endeavour. The coalition, whatever their strengths may once have been, have become an irrelevance. Will they survive? Does it matter? Who really cares?
Yes, it was wonderful going past Kirribilli House by ferry today, knowing that our Kirribilli Removals/Pest Controller had so thoroughly carried out his crucial task. Could have sworn all my fellow commuters were all smiling too……
Gotta love the Monster Raving Loony Party policies. Here’s a sample:
It is proposed that The European Union end its discrimination by creating a “Court of Human Lefts” because their present policy is one_sided.
All asylum seekers would be allowed to stay as long as they can tell a good joke
All politicians should paint them self’s permantly head to toe in the colour of the party they represent – e.g. all Labour candidates in Red , all Conservatives in Blue ,etc,etc
The Loch Ness Monster should be added to the endangered species list.
Government Whips will only be used if a politician has been really bad. Minor offences should receive the political slipper.
I always get confused bewteen Kirribilli House and Admiralty House. Which is which?
Jude.
Kirrabilli House is the one with the fresh fingernail marks gouging the doorways and the driveway all the way from the front door to the front gate.
Aaahh, got it now.
Perhaps I should have asked which is the big one closest to the ferries?
@ 356 Jude Says:
This confusion between the two has been noted by Michael Costa (a Labor country member) who even as I write is moving to resume the land and knock down the buildings so that he can sell the site to an overseas consortium for re-development resort . In a brief statement a ministerial advisor stated that the proposal would be put before State Cabinet and later caucus for rubber stamping sometime in the new year.
Of course the conservative parties will survive, and in much their present form. They are conservatives after all, and won’t change unless they absolutely have to. They are in a deep hole just now, but politics is always cyclical and they will come back, just as Labor did after 1996.
I’d be happy if Labor won 76 seats
Does anyone see a parallel with Thatcher and the ‘poll tax’ and Howard and ‘Serfchoices’ ? only difference I see is that the Conservatives gave Maggie the flick but faced Kinnock (Beazley equivalent). The Liberals where gutless to give Howie the flick and faced Rudd (Blair equivalent) nice (reverse) symmetry no???
That’s an interesting question davo (361). Let’s see, the poll tax was an issue that the left deluded themselves brought down Thatcher whereas in reality it was because she had already dealt with unions and had nothing left in her program but a vindictive policy to fill the gap. Whereas Workchoices …
The biggest loser has got to be Howard. He had a choice, retire and be remembered as the last Liberal that could win elections, the last Liberal that knew what the people really wanted, or get kicked out, and see his legacy pulled apart by the party he destroyed, by saying too long. Sorry Adam when it comes to losing Costello is only a bit player, side line entertainment.
Steve @ 320
A better report would be to use the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) annual reports on national health expenditures.
The latest is for 2005/6 at:
http://www.aihw.gov.au/publications/index.cfm/title/10529
Much of the CW increase is taken up with the 30% health insurance rebate, which is paid to health funds (ie corporate welfare) not to individuals.
phil senior @329 claimed:
Ah, another one who fell for the pea and thimble trick. Yes, income tax dropped, for about 3 nanoseconds then Cossie clawed it all back plus some. To quote from the not so easily fooled Ross Gittans reporting on the study “GST and the changing incidence of Australian taxes” published in the eJournal of Tax Research:
You got conned, phil! Done like a dinner! Pity you and the other clowns who voted for the GST took the rest of us down with you.
And lets knock another Howie/Cossie lie on the head, the one that says the states have been rolling in from the GST. It is only in this financial year – 2007-8 – that the GST will bring in more than they would have received under the old grants formula. Quote:
365 Thanks Rain, but it makes no difference to the beligerent tories who refuse to read links to anything that contradicts the figures that they pull out of thin air to back up unsustainable claims and Liberal Party talking points don’t provide them with the ability to link to figures to back up their wild claims.
On another note the latest Queensland polling puts Opposition Leader Seeney at 11 per cent unpreferred Premier.
Queensland’s Labor leadership change has not adversely affected the party’s popularity among voters, the latest Newspoll shows.
Conducted during the December quarter, the poll found Labor maintained its primary vote of 50 per cent and a two-party-preferred result of 59 per cent as Anna Bligh took over the top job from Peter Beattie who retired in September.
The poll shows Ms Bligh has the support of 59 per cent of voters, which is the highest satisfaction rating for a Queensland premier since Mr Beattie’s peak in 2001, The Australian reports.
However, among poll results is the 25 per cent of voters who remain uncommitted in the popularity stakes.
The poll shows Ms Bligh as a clear winner when it comes to being the preferred premier with her 66 per cent of voter support far outweighing that for opposition leader Jeff Seeney who claimed 11 per cent of the vote.
The Australian said the poll was based on interviews with 1,134 “random” voters during a time when not everything was running smoothly for Ms Bligh as she formed her new cabinet, had troubles with ministers’ speeding fines, council amalgamations and daylight saving.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/bligh-six-times-more-popular-than-seeney-poll/2007/12/20/1197740414429.html
re Vic Senate. Forget teh ABC calculator it is of little use at this stage of the count. Any suggestion of the Greens calling a re-count is just hype and irresponsibility.
We already know the result as the AEC has completer teh sorting of first-preference votes. If you add the sum of the ALP, Liberal and Greens group votes and allocate the minor party ticket votes the ALP wins the sixth seat. the Greens fall short by 17,000 odd votes. There is no need to distribute the below the line vote as the margin between the ALP and the Greens is 124% of the available BTL vote…
366 MayoFeral, another bone of contention that you didn’t mention is how during the life of the Howard Government the number of workers who face a tax bill at the end of the financial year has escalated.
I hope Labor gets the tax rates back into order so that this legacy of the Tory years is eliminated. If tax is taken out of pay fortnightly then workers should not then face a huge tax bill on top of this at the end of the year. At the moment the situation is ludicrous.
Back to McEwen and the ballot paper ruled formal for Bailey even though candidates’ names allegedly had been crossed out and racing car drivers’ names substituted. A friend with many years experience at the highest levels of the AEC comments:
“On the description of the vote it can’t possibly be formal. You can only give effect to the vote insofar as the intention of the voter is clear. On the face of it seems far from clear. I would back Robert Berglund who has been a DRO for donkey’s years. Daryl Wight was appointed to the AEO’s job just over five years ago and would not have handled many recounts and therefore very few ballot papers.”
368
Welcome back Melb City. I’ve been missing your trademark spelling and grammar, and its nice to see that you haven’t varied the content of your posts one little bit since you were last here.
Party Group Vote Plus known Minor Party ticket Vote
Liberal 1380858 (43.392%)
ALP 1366446 (42.939%
Green 415834 (13.067%)
Other Minor Parties BTL 19174 (0.603%)
Total: 3,182,312 (100.0%)
Quota 454617 (14.286%)
Expressed in Quotas
Liberal 3.0374
ALP 3.0057
Green 0.9147
Others Minor Party Below-the-Line vote 0.0422
Distribution of Liberal Surplus is not required but if it was distributed the system would add an estimated 2700 disproportional bonus points to the Greens vote dues to the method used by the AEC to calculate the surplus transfer value.
25% of the value of the Liberal Surplus representing the Minor Party ticket preferences that flow via the Liberal party will be reduced in value to 8% and is then transferred to the ALP.
In any event the ALP is elected prior to the distribution of Liberal preferences. Even if teh greens received 121% of the available Below the Line votes (Which is impossible) it still fall short by an estimated 15,000-18,000. The notion of a recount pegging back such a lead is beyond belief.
Vic Senate Watch (akaMelb city?)
The Greens have stated publicly they will NOT call for a recount after an initial incorrect report.
If your interested in how the AEC calculates its surplus value here is an example of the extent of distortion in the count. Had the Liberal Surplus been distributed in Victoria..
Using the AEC method
Surplus Value of 17685
Divided by the total number of ballot papers (1,381,536) = 0.0128
The correct proprtional value should be
Ratio * surplus divided by number of ballot papers = Surplus transfer value
Ratio as calculated above = the sum of the value of each group divided by the surplus.
Answer:
A) = 0.7325 * 17685 = 12953.8704 divided by number of ballot papers ballot papers 1,254,603 equals a transfer value of 0.010325075
B) = 0.0009 * 17685 = 16.5974
divided by number of ballot papers ballot papers 1,025
equals a transfer value of 0.016192621
C) = 0.2666 * 17685 = 4714.5322
divided by number of ballot papers ballot papers 125,908
equals a transfer value of 0.037444262
Answer
A) = 0.010325075
B) = 0.016192621
C) = 0.037444262
A = the Liberal Party Ticket Vote plus Fist Candidate Primary
B = being Second Candidate Primary
C = third and fourth candiadte primary and Minor Party Ticket Vote
374
Hey there Jen.
Yup, that’s Melb City all right (368, 372). And from experience I’d say that no matter how many statements are made MC will keep on posting these analyses and dire warnings on the futility of the Greens position for some time yet. I think the only thing that would stop the flow would be for di Natale to say “Thank God for democracy I lost and the righteous forces of the ALP took a seat that was rightfully theirs. I also apologise for the Melbourne City Council elections in 1999. I will spend the rest of my life working to convince people that the Greens are evil in order to atone for my sins”
And even then it’d only be a 50:50 chance that he’d stop.
Mind you, at least we know what his campaign will be during the inter-election period – a quixotic crusade against the AEC and the Senate prefernece system . . . which will no doubt make the VEC heave a sigh of relief that their most effective (and I believe only) gadfly has turned his considerable spare time and towering intellect to someone other than themselves.
Hi dyspnoeia,
definitely include you on the GESAward list.
Specifically, in the special category of
‘Services to Improve PB by sniffing out Melbcity even when using a Cunning Disguise’.
OMIGOD a Gold Elephant Stamp!?! For me?!? XMAS comes 5 days early. . . Thank you Jen!!!!
Dyspnoeia,
Van der Craats does well for somebody whose first language is not English. (His first language being Gibberish)
If you can’t get enough of Melb City, try Landeryou’s site. He has decided to devour another victim’s bandwidth in an insatiable desire to spread his special seed of knowledge.
Dick Cheney sets fire to White House.
The panic has set-in, must be the shredders overheating.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/white-house-fire-forces-mass-evacuation/2007/12/20/1197740412769.html
Who needs terrorists when you’ve got Dickky boy.
One can only hope.
Mayoferal, your point about bracket creep is irrelevant to the question of whether income tax was reduced in line with the introduction of the GST – the rates were cut, that is a fact, not open to dispute. Now certainly bracket creep has raised the actual tax take back up, but that would have occurred anyway… bracket creep is a fact unless you index, it has nothing to do with the GST….
The introduction of the GST decreased the share of tax from income – fact. The fact that the number has grown subsequently due to bracket creep is a separate point. It is crucial to separate these out in considering the issue
Typical Green response… I was amused to hear the Greens call for a recount when it was not even close. 17,000 is far from 7 votes.. lol lol I think the AEC would laugh at them.. and rightly so… But then maybe it was the Age’s fault for giving the Greens page space on their unattainable request lol lol…
382
Dear MelbCity
There will be no recount request . . . no matter how much you want one.
That’s all that needs to be said and all I will say.
10pse @ 380 – I haven’t disputed that the tax rates fell, but do the payers care about the rate, or the total dollars taken out of their pay packets. I suggest its the latter. The fact is there was no dollar for dollar reduction except, possibly, in the first year, though this was far from universal. The Howardistas becoming the highest taxing government in our history was no accident.
Dipenia I do not want one I think it is a total wast of limited public resources., It the Greens that wanted one. I was shocked at teh age Article but I notices that no other newspaper with credibility published their suggestion or call for a recount. The Vic Senate has never been close so on what basis did the Greens make such a request…
Off topic – The AWB affair is off and running again. At least six ex-AWB managers have been told by ASIC to expect civil and possibly criminal charges over the ‘Wheat for Bullets’ scam. For those here who have been hoping for a new royal commission (there won’t be one) to nail Downer and Vaile, any criminal trial might produce the required result. When the Cole report was handed down, at least one AWB manager publicly stated that if he faced charges, he would take government ministers down with him. Rather than have a royal commission, Rudd will just make sure that ASIC and the police do their job – less messy that way and gets the same result. 2008 could an interesting year!!
Mumble has an interesting analysis showing the worth of Maxine to Labor, as a comparison of the general swing to Labor compared with the surrounding seats.
And Ms Overingtopn is back being very serious and uncolourful.
10pse, the original point made by Glen writing under the guise of phil senior , is misleading.
The point of the Howard Government’s GST was to replace sales taxes and the drop in income tax was a one off electoral sweetener.
Had the GST been introduced under a progressive Government I’m sure the focus would have been on replacing income tax with the GST. Under the Howard Government this was not the main focus of the GST introduction – cutting sales tax was the focus.
Cost of a senate recount would be in excess of $100,000. I am sure an animal shelter or a few more overseas junket Con-Fests (African Safaris)could be paid for with that expense. If the Greens really want a recount then they should forgo part of their 3 Million poll-bonus payments to meet the costs.
Steve 311
It has been proven that the federal government spending on hospital had increase for the last 12 year, while the states, even with 15 billion more in GST Revenue (NSW) and Pokies tax ext have not lifted their spending on health.
Instead they have (in NSW) employed a group of beurocrate, whose job is to manipulate the figures so that the waiting list is not as high
MayoFeral
We have the highest taxing govenment becuase,
a. There are more of us
b. WE are also on the highest personal income in Australia’s history.
So before you just blub out some gimmic line, know some facts
In fact tax on % of income was highest under the Hawk-Keating Govenment, the dropping of tax rate, the falling of tax on capital gain, the reducting of bracket creep had all be installed by the Howard government
It is no coincidence that Hawk- Keating was the highest taxing Federal Government on a % basis, just as Carr is also the highest taxing state government on a percentage basis (NSW)
388
Melb City . . . against my better judgement, one last post on this topic.
The Greens have not requested a recount and will not do so. OK, so I was a little inflammatory by saying that you wanted a recount. I believe that what you really want is for The Greens to ask for one – plenty to write about then. It must be very frustrating that it just won’t happen.
Move on man, the world is too varied a place to stay stuck in the same worn out rut.
385
Alex McDonnel Says:
December 20th, 2007 at 10:34 am
Off topic – The AWB affair is off and running again
You bet Alex and yes we will not need a royal commission (at this stage) but i
suggest after the various court cases etc we may have a call for other royal commissions into “other” activities
The AEC has now announced the Vic Senate results. As expected 3 Labor, 3 Liberals.
http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Media_releases/12_20.htm
Never trust the Libs….
Liberal anger over Work Choices
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/20/2123894.htm?section=justin
Alex and Gusface-
great news about the AWB issue gaining momentum.
It will be fantastic if Downer and Co. get what they deserve over this outrage – hopefully jail.
Very disppointed in the senate result, of course. Richard would be a fantastic senator for Victoria.
394
red wombat
Crikey red wombat, isn’t that Russell Broadbent a smart fella?
I mean, he grasps that TurdChoices was actually good industrial relations law and beneficial for the nation too. Yes they were, considering that they largely helped to elect a Rudd Labor government!
Let’s say very beneficial, eh?
Gosh, good to see the slow learners in the Liberal party refusing to let go of the stinking carcass. If Mr Broadbent wishes to drape the dead albatross around his neck and wear it for a while, who are we to resist?
re: dovif @ # 390 says
Dovif,
Welcome back – you have been missing for quite awhile.
During the Howard years, income tax rates were reduced for high income earners. At the same time the income tax threshold hasn’t increased. Inflation over the last 11 years has resulted in low income earners having a larger proportion of their income taxable and hence paying more income tax. (If this doesn’t make sense, please study the difference between Average Tax Rate and Marginal Tax Rate).
In addition to this, a 10% GST was introduced. The GST applies to most items including all essential services such as water and electricity, and thus is payable by everyone.
The end result is those on multi-million dollar per annum incomes pay less tax, while the vast major of people pay much more tax.
Earlier this year, you claimed that you were too young to recall how bad the Sydney Public Transport system was under the Fahey Government. Unless you were part of some family trust (or other tax dodge) when Hawke (please note the correct spelling) was PM, you would not have been paying any tax at that time.
I thought you might enjoy the following from today’s crikey and just so that we don’t forget:
“Three moments in Conservative politics yesterday.
1. Liberal Party Federal Director Brian Loughnane faces the National Press Club and maintains the head up the a-se of the dog in the sand line that things were great, we just got a bit inward looking and didn’t sell our message.
2. Brendan Nelson, Federal Leader of the Liberal Party apparently, abandons the central tenet of ideological faith that has propelled his party through the preceding three years: WorkChoices. They used to call it the industrial relations reform that was the bedrock of the country’s solid economic performance. Now it’s dead meat. People didn’t like it apparently, so best we don’t believe in it anymore.
and the clincher:
3. A year and a change of government after Terence Cole’s report, ASIC brings civil actions against six former executives of the AWB, the body you will recall that under the nose of at least the Foreign Minister bribed Saddam Hussein, just before the Howard Government decided that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and should therefore be invaded forthwith.
At which point, and for the edification of Brian Loughnane at least, we should mention children overboard, Tampa, the politicisation of the public service and the board of every available qango, the subtle incitement of queasy xenophobia and a general intolerance of the Other, the denial of climate change, the perversion of national pride to political ends, the introduction of WorkChoices out of opportunism rather than coherent necessity (never mind on a mandate), the replacement of ministerial responsibility with plausible denial, lickspittle foreign policy, rampant acquisitive federalism, profligate porkbarrelling and the abandonment of any principal that stood between the Howard Government and the merest whiff of a critical vote.
In the end they stood for nothing but themselves. Sorry Brian, but there it is. Analyse that.”
386
Ed@Bennelong
I think Mumble is more righter (sic) on Maxine. If you consider the weight of history with its fat thumb on the scales for the incumbent Prime Minister, it was nothing short of amazing that Maxine tipped them her way, and not, I should add, without considerable organisation and perseverance. Afterall, she managed the national swing, which was all she needed, and to suggest any old hack could have done it, as Richardson does, is probably cobblers.
Nah, Peter Brent has this one dead right, it was a masterstroke for Labor.
(As for smarty-duds Richardson, hell, he won $245 on Maxine and he’s crowing about it? I won four times that on the same seat, and told everyone on this board about it two weeks BEFORE the ‘interest rate rise we had to have’, which was, as the financial markets were tipping, almost a lay down misere!)
386
KR Spot On. Also Piers has a go at Maxine and her use of Asians but as one of his posters pointed out no-one mentions that the Libs used students from Macquarie Uni to do a similar thing but obviously less successful.
Still surprises me there is so little MSM analysis on Howard losing Bennelong and what there is is self-serving, arrogant or just Shrek-land stuff.
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