Welcome to episode two in the slower-than-anticipated Post-Match Report round-up of federal electorate results, which today brings us to South Australia.
Of the three seats that were highly marginal for the Liberals going into the election, Kingston emerged with the smallest Labor margin following a relatively subdued 4.5 per cent swing. The swing was reasonably consistent throughout the electorate, though slightly heavier at Morphett Vale and the Liberal-voting suburbs to the north than along the coast. Makin produced the third biggest swing in the state, perhaps boosted by the retirement of sitting member Trish Draper, with the 0.9 per cent margin obliterated by an evenly distributed 8.6 per cent shift to Labor. In Wakefield the swing was 7.3 per cent, which was markedly lower than in the small towns in the north of the electorate than in the low-income outer Adelaide centres of Elizabeth and Salisbury.
Only at four of Boothby’s 42 booths did Nicole Cornes achieve a swing greater than the 5.4 per cent needed to win the seat. All were in strong Liberal areas, including the coast around Brighton and the Adelaide Hills suburb of Flagstaff Hill. Labor’s worst results came in the area closest to the city, with swings to the Liberals recorded at Mitcham, Myrtle Bank, Kingswood and Hawthorn West. The Greens’ vote picked up 3.1 per cent, perhaps benefiting from embarrassment surrounding Cornes’s performance. In Sturt the Labor candidate Mia Handshin picked up a close-but-no-cigar swing of 5.9 per cent that was concentrated in the heavily mortgaged northern end of the electorate, with swings near or above 10 per cent at Dernancourt, Gilles Plains and Windsor Gardens. Pyne now sits on an uncomfortable margin of 0.9 per cent.
The 7.2 per cent swing in Adelaide was slightly higher than the state average of 6.8 per cent, and was driven in remarkable degree by the stronger Labor areas to the north and north-west of the city. The swings in many of these booths cracked double figures, whereas the strong Liberal booths to the north-east and south-east of the city mostly came in at well under half that. Labor’s Hindmarsh MP Steve Georganas also had a much more relaxing election night this time around after prevailing by 108 votes in 2004, picking up a 5.0 per cent swing that was fairly evenly distributed throughout the electorate.
Labor’s biggest swing in South Australia was wasted in the safe Liberal rural seat of Barker, where Liberal member Patrick Secker went to preferences for the first time since 1998 after his primary vote fell from 53.2 per cent to 46.8 per cent. Labor was up 8.6 per cent on the primary vote and 10.4 per cent on two-party preferred. Swings were larger in the bigger centres than the small rural booths: all five Mount Gambier booths produced above average swings, peaking at a remarkable 21.4 per cent at Mount Gambier North. Talk of a swing in Grey big enough to endanger the Liberals was partly borne out by double-digit swings in the seat’s traditional Labor centres of Whyalla, Port August and Port Lincoln. Swings were much more gentle in the many smaller rural and remote booths, dampening the overall shift down to an insufficient but still severe 9.4 per cent.
Alexander Downer’s seat of Mayo followed the statewide trend in swinging to Labor by 6.5 per cent. Particularly heavy swings were recorded at the southern coastal towns of Victor Harbor and Goolwa. Nine years after coming within an ace of winning the seat, the Australian Democrats can now manage only 1.5 per cent. The Greens did well to increase 3.4 per cent to 11.0 per cent, partly assisted by the donkey vote. Another good seat for the Greens was Port Adelaide, where they picked up 3.3 per cent and boosted Labor from a 3.7 per cent increase on the primary vote to 6.8 per cent on two-party preferred. Remarkably, all but one of the 10 booths in Paralowie, Salisbury and Parafield to the east of Port Wakefield Road produced a double digit swing, a trend which carried over into neighbouring Makin. Swings in booths further west varied around the 4 per cent mark.
557 Comments
Basically a working class reaction to Workchoices. I’m guessing the swing in Barker was concentrated in Murray Bridge?
Than average swing for the state was 6.8 Whilst both labor and the Greens has a 3% swing to them I am not sure you can with confidence claim that the Greens boosted the ALP vote. I tend to believe it is the voters that delivered the swings and the parties where the recipients. It could be that the ALP received the statewide 6% swing but 3% of previous ALP supporters votes one Green knowing that they would not be elected. Also what happened to the minor party vote. Across the country there has been a noticeable consolidation of the major party vote. It could be that the Greens may have been the beneficiary of this change/swing of voters support. IE they picked up on the democratic vote. Perhaps William should present the statistical breakdown of the change in minor party support then put it into perspective.
The fact is governments lose office oppositions never really win.
The councillor for Brisbane City Council who replaced the now Federal Member for Bonner died today after a short term in office.
Brisbane City’s first indigenous councillor, Robbie Williams, has died suddenly of a suspected heart attack, aged 45.
Cr Williams joined council in October after Kerry Rea left a vacancy to run in the federal election.
He was expected to win the newly redistributed ward of Wishart at the forthcoming March elections.
Shortly before 12pm today, Cr Williams suffered a heart attack at his Holland Park office.
Deputy Mayor David Hinchliffe expressed his deepest sympathies to Cr Williams’ family.
“I had known the Councillor for many years and his death is a great loss to us all,” Cr Hinchliffe said.
“(He) was a proud southsider, a tireless community worker and a dedicated family man.”
Labor Lord Mayoral candidate Greg Rowell said the news came as a terrible shock.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/brisbane-councillors-shock-death/2007/12/20/1197740454842.html
So what do people think the chances of Mayo falling are if Downer quits?
There is another explanation for the difference in Cornes’ swings. The coastal areas are traditionally Glenelg Football Club supporters and so were more sympathetic to their favourite sons wife. The city areas like Kingswood are just as affluent as the coast but barrack for Sturt, who are Glenelg’s great rival so less inclined to give Graham Cornes’ wife a chance. Just a theory but might be true.
[Warning, extremely off topic], but thanks for the follow up for my Grandma on the previous thread Diogenes.
She got excellent care by all accounts, they found her an acute care bed within an hour. They were there for 9 hours ultimately. Treatment recommendations [which puzzled me a bit] are to change the manner of dressing the leg wound [less binding], more irrigation which was previously not recommended, and to elevate the leg more often. They have not removed any of the dead flesh [the bit that puzzles me]. The doctors there organised an appointment for today at a circulation specialist to see about an angiogram or something like that.
Big toe has some days with feeling but some with not. I would have thought that a more positive intervention would be required….
Should have added that the reason this might be semi interesting to others is to demonstrate that the health care system seems to be full of well intentioned people who are doing the best they can with the little that they have.
In my job and those of many others - ultimately, success in so many fields of endeavour comes down to people, relationships and personalities.
Any idea why the Kingston swing was so (relatively) low? I’d have thought it contained the same sort of mortgage belt territory that swung so heavily in Makin and Wakefield. Is Kingston more of an affluent outer suburban seat - like an Aston or a Greenway??
Otherwise the result is pretty much as expected: Labor easily won the three highly marginal Lib seats, got big swings in their own marginals, and close but not quite there in Sturt. And Nicole Cornes’ dillness cost her party dearly in Boothby….
Senate watch @ 2 - I’m one of those who really voted Labor, but did it by sending my vote via the Greens to deliver an “Its the environment, stupid” message to both major parties.
Not that it mattered. Labor’s chances in this seat are slightly better than mine of flying to the moon by flapping my arms, nor, as a climate change action skeptic, do I have much faith in humanity saving itself from ecological suicide. It never has in the past.
Chino- I’m very glad to hear that. The treatment she is getting is correct, as is the pace (which was too slow before the visit to Emerg IMHO). The reason for reducing the binding is to increase blood flow by reducing external compression. Leaving the necrotic tissue is correct unless it is infected, which it seldom is in this type of case. It is not harmful at all and is in fact preferable to removing it (healing a fresh wound needs a good blood flow). The important thing is to see if the blood supply can be improved by looking at the angiogram (can sometimes fix with a balloon, sometimes need a surgical bypass and sometimes any intervention may be risky).
Her case does demonstrate that almost all individual doctors and nurses do their best, it’s systemic problems like getting a timely appointment which are the hard thing to fix.
Regarding Sturt, and looking at those 10% swings in the northern booths, I think it must reasonably be concluded that the interest rate rise and mortgage security were bigger factors than workchoices here. Perhaps I’m being over optimistic due to local bias here, but depending on Labor’s handling of the interest rate issue I would have some hope that Sturt can still fall in 2010. A small swing to the new govenment then would be possible, and with Pyne still on only 0.9%, he could lose.
The swing in Barker is remarkable - is there some particular issue there driving that?
Diogenes
Slightly off topic but relevant to your field of expertise - do you have a view on how to fix the medical system mess now that we have “wall-to-wall Labor governments” as the doom sayers put it?
I know nothing of medicine but, from my reading in economics, it seems that what has to change is the huge waste of money from the private health insurance rebate. That money was ripped out of public hospital funding and it clearly hasn’t reduced demand on intensive care at public hospitals. Converesly, it seems to me desirable to make people pay some small amount of their care costs, to discourage over sue of services. What do you think?
The media surrounding Cornes even post-election has been extraordinary, I have read at least four if not more columns regarding her staggering loss. A couple in support, a couple in defence (Mr Cornes tried to come out and say that she did her job perfectly as a distraction for the other seats. Which is total crap, Labor was always going to pick up three seats, but I digress.)
Let this be a lesson to all those in other states on the affect she personally had on the seat. It’s difficult to explain the country town mentality of this state, but I don’t think I read one person from SA give her a chance at all at any stage of the campaign, it was all interstate talk. She was stuffed from about day three of the campaign when she requested nobody ask her tough questions. Actually, she was probably stuffed a few years earlier when detailing how John Howard was a good PM and that she voted for him on multiple occasions. This was a blunder from top to bottom.
Anyway, as others have said, this really was a predictable result. In a way, it’s a shame that Pyne didn’t get the flick because he really is a knob but such is life. Labor got what it deserved here, there was the potential to take five seats but it was content with the three. Which as it turned out was more than enough to take government, but one suspects that Boothby and Sturt will return to safe status pending a half competent effort by the Libs next election. We will see. On the flip side, Ellis has turned Adelaide from a Liberal seat to a safe Labor seat in but a few years, so watch out from her a decade from now, one suspects she has leadership credentials for the future. She has built a public persona remarkably quickly, I really don’t think anyone needs to look far to figure out how.
On Kingston: My seat, and I’m not sure why Richardson defied the swing, I actually thought the result was going to be a lot larger than this. My guess is that the Liberal promise to expand the Southern Expressway (which is a non stop road from the South to Brighton near the city) might have held a few voters at bay, that’s about all I can think of. We’re going to be one of the seats to watch in the next election, so that should be fun, although I can’t for the life of me figure out who the candidate will be. Maybe Richardson will come back now that Brokenshire has defected to FF…
On the senate: absolutely brilliant news on Mr Xenophon getting up, a somewhat remarkable feature given he was simple ‘Group S’ above the line, and the shocking time he had publicity wise in the last week of the campaign. Good stuff.
Sorry for another tangent, but I just saw on the Fairfax paper websites that the Haneef visa appeal decision is due at 10.30am tomorrow morning. I hope someone will have a camera crew at Kevin Andrews’ place - in government or not he has a lot to answer for on that one.
(Diogenes, sorry, I realise in hindsight that my question about health was a bit silly. There is no simple answer.)
Night all.
12 Socrates- I’m hoping that wall-to-wall Labor will help, as will Ruddski’s “buck stops with me”. At least they will blame each other less than before and the litany of excuses will be even more feeble. But how to do it???
1. More funds, the Feds have been welching on this. Even Abbott agreed with this.
2. Don’t ever quote me on this but doctors in private practice get paid too much and have little incentive to work in public. After overheads, I get paid about 2.5 times more per hour in private than public, and the work is easier in private. They will never be able to cut Medicare payments to fix this so the only way is to make private insurance more expensive so people drop out. But they will then use the public system so that would need careful consideration.
3. Reduce expectations- either offer less services (stop doing varicose veins, etc) or introduce a means test for co-payments for care with a safety net.
4. We have the Sara Lee approach to bureaucracy, layer upon layer, endlessly replicating itself. Get rid of state health departments and run it federally.
5. Get a few really good top execs and pay them $5M a year to run it. SAs Health budget is about $5B a year and is run by someone on $500000. To get someone really good, you have to pay big bucks.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/prayer-may-yet-upturn-mcewen/2007/12/20/1197740469145.html
hah, surely its obvious that the word ‘prayer’ in an act has a legal and not religious meaning.
Amazing, the Doctor’s Union are supporting today’s funding boost to cut Elective Surgery lists, which I must add are also caused by patients themselves delaying procedures for various reasons including special occasions and holiday periods such as Christmas and school holidays.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/20/2124577.htm?section=justin
FYI here is the GP Handbook for Royal Perth Hospital which lists the average waiting list times for various illnesses.
http://rph.wa.gov.au/pdf/gphandbook.pdf
And the 2006-7 Metropolitan Health Serviuce Annual Report.
http://www.health.wa.gov.au/publications/documents/annualreports/2007/MHS/Metropolitan%20Health%20Service%20(final).pdf
13 Max - Nicole’s performance did make national news from time-to-time, not just locally. She probably could have lost the safest of Labor seats! Sturt came so close, a great effort!
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But Nick X? Can South Aussies tell me more about him? Without doing my homework etc - All I saw over east was this hilarious man in a silly hat on a trike, declaiming the evils of pokies, and my impression was fantastic comedy street theatre for Rundle Mall on a Sat morning shopping expedition. But for federal politics? What were you guys thinking?
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Is it that your sick of him in SA politics, but couldn’t vote him out locally, so decided to “promote” him? On the positive side, he is certainly a big improvement on past Independent fed Senators we’ve had (eg Harradine).
James J
I think the prayer bit is a bit weird -does it mean any religion or a specific format
hopefully someone can explain
An interesting rightist critique of Howard by Michael Duffy, here: http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/howard-played-the-conservative-movement/2007/12/20/1197740461213.html
‘There’s a real possibility that people in the future, especially those on the right, will look back on the Howard years as we now view the Fraser ones: as a time of wasted opportunity.’
I guess this sort of column is always easier to write in hindsight, but it truly seems (the beginning of?) a more of an ideological critique as opposed to the partisan toadying much of the right commentariat has been offering for the decade.
Diogenes @ 15-
20c worth from a one-time health worker, who moved into fed health policy & admin:
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1. More funds, the Feds have been welching on this. Even Abbott agreed with this.
. TRUE. Also happened in other areas of CWlth/State SPPs, education, welfare, housing, justice, infrastructure etc and in population health services, like communicable disease prevention. The CWlth/State Disability agreements were also cut heavily
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2. ..doctors in private practice get paid too much and have little incentive to work in public. … the only way is to make private insurance more expensive so people drop out. But they will then use the public system..
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Mandatory Private health for all people, finds many who cannot afford to use it anyway, so still elect to use the public system. Many now forced to pay it, call it their private health “tax”. This group have been silenced for years. Also the age-loading has hurt more and more people.
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Around half of all privately insured still use the public system for *everything*, and a third use it for *most* things. Previously, most people used private health mainly for ancillary services (dental, physio, optical etc). As more and more are forced into mandatory private hospital cover, they can’t afford the top cover tables, so have enormous insurance excesses, which discourages them further from using it, and they can’t afford to pay for ancillary cover on top of it. So they have bad teeth etc, as well as being unable to use private hospital cover.
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It is a myth that more privately insured would reduce pressure on public health systems, it never worked in the past, and it still doesn’t.
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There is no incentive in privatised systems to keep prices down, so is uncapped, it just keeps going up, doctors fees, nursing salaries, private hospital charges, funds admin charges etc etc — there’s nothing to “drive” it down, so it actually drives inflation up, far beyond the general inflation rate on other goods & services. Thats what happens in the USA, their prices charged are obscene.
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Its been undeniably proven worldwide that public systems are much cheaper than private ones, and always have been, because they have “drivers” to keep costs down, they aren’t looking for profit but just to cover costs.
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Read a recent paper in a Canadian Medical Journal, comparing some CV patients in New York City with CV patients in Toronto. For the NYC people, their insurance funds found it much cheaper overall, to fly them them over the border to Toronto public hospitals, with airfares, both pre-op and post-op care, along with classy hotel & travel accommodation thrown into the deal with the Canadians? *sheesh*
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The “old” system worked better, where privately insured had private room treatment in public hospitals. This made overheads and admin cheaper by sharing it. It also meant a small income for public hospitals.
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Also, the “old” system worked well for the self-insured. This suited a lot of middle-income earners, who could consider paying a reduced price by negotiation with their private surgeons, in order to “jump the queue” for one-offs.
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In private health insurance, these people would often chose in-and-out coverage, also called the private health ” Hit & Runs “. They would take out private health cover for specific purposes, wait the waiting period, “jump the queue” for their treatment, then drop-out again.
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This system of self-insurance and ‘hit & runs’, which suited many Aussies for 30-40 years or more, was minimally stuffed-up under Keating (by discouraging private patients in public hospitals - which annoyed the hospitals, as those private patients were a small but valuable source of income)… but completely wiped under Howard.
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3. Reduce expectations- either offer less services (stop doing varicose veins, etc) or introduce a means test for co-payments for care with a safety net.
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Means-testing means more administration and paper-work, as well as fraud audit & surveillance. Do you really want the Medicare Australia auditors (the *spies* we call them) running around hospitals? Bad enough spying on pharmacists in the chemist shops and the doctors in their surgeries
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Reducing expectations of what is ‘elective’ is a good idea anyway. As a young woman working in hospitals, I used to think “elective” and “surgery” was an oxymoron, who in their right mind would “elect” to have surgery? LOLOL
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Also, outpatient specialist clinics have gone by the way-side in recent years.
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4. We have the Sara Lee approach to bureaucracy, layer upon layer, endlessly replicating itself. Get rid of state health departments and run it federally.
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Ahh..this is where I disagree. State health departments do so much more than just look after hospitals, they have community health, population health and various other health sectors to look after as well, such as HACC, alcohol/drug clinics and coordinating with other state services, paramedics, emergency services, welfare, social workers, justice and police services etc. You still need people on the ground locally, to respond to service-delivery, coordination and planning issues.
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Running it federally, would just most of those admin people would become federal public servants, instead of state ones!
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5. Get a few really good top execs and pay them $5M a year to run it. SAs Health budget is about $5B a year and is run by someone on $500000. To get someone really good, you have to pay big bucks.
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Count me in, I could do with that sort of salary!! *chuckle*
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Time will tell with Mr X.
If he demands largesse for SA for his vote (at the obvious expense of the rest of Oz) then he follows the shallow, small minded examples of Harradine and Fielding who, because a fluke in the numbers, were in a position to demand favours for his state in return for his vote. The Senate is (was) for protecting state’s rights, not for an individual senator to grandstand.
We’ll wait and see, but given this fellows history I don’t expect much.
Time will tell. As early anecdotal though - yesterday the South Sydney Leagues Club board voted for the Crowe/Holmes a Court proposal to get rid of their pokies in favour of other business developments. Xenaphon was quick to announce he would support them however he could from a federal position.
22 Rain- Thanks for that excellent post. I should point out that my suggestions were cobbled together quickly in response to a question after I finished watching “Hostel” (BTW the movie proves if it looks too good to be true, it probably is).
Re co-payments your point is very good and it would be hard to administer.
Re Sara Lee I was only referring to States dropping out of public hospitals. There are certainly a lot of other functions the DHs perform.
Re salary. I saw a BBC doco called “Can Gerry Robinson fix the NHS?” which was fascinating. He is a respected industry CEO and went in to a NHS hospital to see what was wrong. He concluded among other things that it needed better quality managers and to compete with private you need to pay for them. Did you know that the NHS is the THIRD BIGGEST EMPLOYER IN THE WORLD!!!
PS Thanks to Adam and Rudd it is raining in Adelaide
3. steve
It is sad that Robbie Williams died, but he was not going to hold onto wishart, Krista Adams was always going to win.
an interesting point about Williams was that in his maiden speech he said he would have happily run as a liberal, if they had asked him first.
I’m not surprised by Kingston’s small swing form what I understand Richardson was seen as a hard working MP, also the nature of Kingston might be that it isn’t a big swinging seat.
The big swings in seats like Barker are not really a surprise considering the polling all year said the swing was bigger in safe Liberal seats.
While Cornes may have made some mistakes I suspect that the Glengle vs Sturt rivalry could be a factor, in saying that Lindsay Tanner is a Essendon support that doesn’t hurt him in Collingwood or Carlton.
On Boothsby from my understanding of the last SA state election the ALP were a better chance in Sturt.
Kate Ellis looks nearly unbeatable in Adelaide in the near foreseeable future, is she possibly a future leadership contender, maybe except Rudd will be leader for most of the next 10 years and depending on how his Prime Ministership ends only then can we assess her chances.
All up no surprises in SA.
Gusface @ 20. A ‘prayer’ is a plea or request. In religious terms it refers to a plea to God, but this is not its only meaning. In legal terms it refers to a plea or request to the court in which a person’s case is stated and sets out the course of action the one making the plea would like the court to take.
Some Andrew Bolt:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/
I do ever so like his writings
Dr Haneef cleared to return to Australia to work
Reported by Sky News.
In the Oz
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22958323-601,00.html
The full federal court has dismissed Andrews’ appeal against Judge Spender’s decision to restore Haneef’s visa.
As he demonstrated numerous times, Andrews is the embodiment of everything that is putrid about the conservative side of Australian politics. No wonder Nelson could find no place for him in the 40 person opposition front bench, despite their denuded numbers.
Great news re Haneef. I get a sense that justice has returned to the good people of Oz.
Seriously, Rudd is having a great run at the moment. Of the non-economic issues that the left have detested Howard over, look at what’s happened since Rudd got in (should point out Rudd can’t take credit for most).
1. Kyoto-ratified and US back at the table
2. AWB- ASIC launches prosecutions
3. Haneef- Andrews appeal rejected again
4. Hicks- getting out in a week, control order verdict today
A lot of the stain of the Howard regime is washing out. Bring on the rain!
26 Is that so? Either my eyesight fails me or some Tory is pulling my leg!
Chairperson: Further speakers? Councillor WILLIAMS. Councillors, I remind you that this
is Councillor WILLIAMS’s first speech in this place.
Councillor WILLIAMS: Thank you, Chairperson. I would like to begin by acknowledging country as
I’ve heard the Council are taking on that role, and I surely acknowledge this
meeting today. I would like to acknowledge the Chairperson of the Council,
Kevin BIANCHI, the LORD MAYOR, Campbell NEWMAN, the DEPUTY
MAYOR, David HINCHLIFFE, and my fellow Councillors.
I’m very humble and very honoured to stand here today. As the Brisbane City
Council Councillor for Holland Park it’s very much not only a privilege but an
honour. I sincerely would like to thank the Australian Labor Party and I would
like to give special mention to a number of people whose names I heard today.
Firstly, would be the State Secretary of the party, Milton Dick. The local
representative, Judy Spence, who’s not only the local member but also the
Minister of Police and Corrective Services but also Sports. The previous
Councillor, Kerry REA, and also other people that are actually in this room
today, two Councils that border my ward Councillor QUIRK, as well as Adrian
SCHRINNER, thank you very much.
But I need to also give special acknowledgement to the actual branch that I come
from, Mt Gravatt. They have a strong history within the Mt Gravatt area and Mr
John O’Donohue, who’ actually a member of the Mt Gravatt Trust and a long
serving member of the Mt Gravatt Trust as well as [indistinct]
It’s very, very active as well as supportive of people like myself to come through
the branch and also to [indistinct]. Actually, John has encouraged me to be one
of the first, not only first indigenous representative on Brisbane City Council but
also be one of the first state representatives for Bonner at State Conferences and
that was another honour that I actually represented the federal electorate of
Bonner, so named after Neville Bonner, who happened to be a Liberal senator.
So everybody has got their own way. So it’s very, very much an honour to be
here today, as I said. There are those people that have encouraged me and seen
an inner strength in me, the inner strength that I have in me they’ve seen and I
feel and hope that it will not only support me in the role that I do in the future
but it will also help me. And I’ve already worked with people like the LORD
MAYOR and I have to acknowledge the LORD MAYOR, the work. Amanda
over there. I’ll acknowledge the work that she did before she was a Councillor
but good work, you know, and to the DEPUTY MAYOR.
The one good thing is working at a community level, you work across different
sides of parliament and politics. The one great thing is, and I’ve heard and
listened to a lot, like last Tuesday’s as well as today, and I’ve talked to
Councillor GRIFFITHS who gave me a few explanations about a different things
and that, and been to a couple of meetings.
I’ve heard about different levels of government that people in this house and the
LORD MAYOR and the DEPUTY MAYOR work with. The great thing that I
actually do think, and I actually acknowledge the DEPUTY MAYOR said that
- 51 -
last week that Robbie has actually been involved, not only within the community
but also at different levels of government.
I’d have to be pleased to say that I’ve worked with people on both sides of
parliament and at all levels, good and bad, and we’ve had our wins as well as,
you know, we’ve seen a lot of changes. I was recently at the swearing in
ceremony for State Parliament and it was very much an honour to see people like
I’ve heard talk about Anna Bligh. It was the first time a woman had actually got
sworn in to as the Premier. It’s very much an honour to be there. It stirs you up
in the emotional sense.
One of the great things is I’m very proud of the opportunity I’ve got to work for
the residents and the families that live in Holland Park Ward.
For me, it is of great significance. I look forward to working hard in the place
where my father was—and you are all quite welcome to come there and I’ve
made the offer to a lot of the Councillors on this side but the offer is on the other
side too to come, and you’ll see actual photos of my father’s butcher shop that
was actually there.
You’ll see the stories and I can tell you the stories from the local area and the
actual people that were there. The one thing is my father spent a lot of his years
within the local area and the one good thing, I used to be at St Bernards and then
at Clairvaux and then Macgregor later on, I used to go through that butcher shop.
And the one great thing is Mt Gravatt and Holland Park and Wishart, as Graham
knows, it’s grown, it’s grown a lifestyle within its own. The one great thing is
I’ve lived there all my life. I’m actually a local. That’s a big, big thing. Yes,
LORD MAYOR, you’re probably thinking, yes, you’re over that fight, Robbie,
now.
Well, I had a look at what was on offer on the other side and as I’m very good
friends with the LORD MAYOR—and I would say that openly, LORD
MAYOR, I am very good friends with you and Graham and Adrian—I looked
on both sides and I said, well, I know David and I know a few of the mob over
there, I like what’s on this side.
But one of the things is that—and I see people saying, well, that’s not in
Robbie’s speech but well, I’m sorry. Robbie likes to ad lib a little bit and one of
the things is my community actually deserves people like me, and David said it
last week. It needs to be grassroots people that represents grassroots people.
We need to come from not only both sides of parliament and the house here. We
need to represent our people. I see people like Kevin I’ve known for years who
have been a bit of a mentor for me too. But I see people over that side. I know
the work that Graham’s done. I know the work of David HINCHLIFFE and Les.
You have been very, very strong leaders within your own local community
and I hope I can be that way too for mine.
One of the big things is life has been very much a journey for me. It’s brought
me to this where yes, I am the first indigenous Councillor but the first thing is,
I’m the first indigenous Councillor but I’m sure I won’t be the last.
Not only as a male, but as a female, they all come through the door behind me.
I’ve opened that door up now. Maybe if I’m the first for Labor at any level of
government in Queensland, I hope I won’t be the last and I hope it will
encourage them to come through; because that’s the great thing with Labor now,
they’re encouraging indigenous people to get involved.
I hope the Liberal and the National Party encourage their people to get involved
too. One of the things is, I’ve been raised, brought up and I represent my people.
I’m talking about not only people I know and the indigenous people. Everybody
right across the board.
Holland Park is a very incredible, diverse part of Brisbane. It covers the suburbs
of Holland Park, Holland Park West, Mt Gravatt, Mt Gravatt East and
Mansfield. That part of Brisbane has many young families. It reflects the
number of schools in the ward. A massive number of schools.
- 52 -
I strongly believe that the best chance for children being born today is to give
them a decent education. At Holland Park, we give those children that
opportunity to start life the right way. Our ward has a large number of primary
schools, secondary schools, world-class education through universities and
TAFEs.
The services that they not only provide our community—and Mt Gravatt and
Holland Park, but also the greater Brisbane area and they also come from
interstate, overseas, everything. But I cannot stress how important it is about
being involved in the community previously.
Yes, I have been involved with the community, like an organisation I’m
involved with, and I’ve been involved with a number of other community
organisations. And the one great thing is I see how important community groups
are and I’m sure all of you that have been involved with community groups, it
helps the functional way of our society.
I cannot stress how much positive influence these community groups make to
our lives, and many of the sporting groups and senior groups and that that are
actually in our area are actually very, very active and they help. With this in
mind, the positive differences you can make in the community by working
through community groups is unbelievable.
I encourage people to be involved in community groups. I hear the LORD
MAYOR, the DEPUTY MAYOR, talk about the importance about
infrastructure, working with government departments, working with government
at all levels. We’ve achieved this recently, and I’ll be honest the LORD
MAYOR had a lot of a big role in this and Councillor QUIRK, I acknowledge
that because you’re actively—I also acknowledge the DEPUTY MAYOR. One
thing we’ve done, we’ve created a major thing on the southside of Brisbane.
Wind her up quickly. Is that better?
Chairperson: Your time has expired, Councillor.
Councillor WILLIAMS: Keep going really quickly?
Chairperson: No, sorry, your time has expired, Councillor.
http://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/bccwr/about_council/documents/council_minutes_6nov2007.pdf
Kevin Andrews is a disgrace.
Good riddance to the end of the Howard era. It went too long and could not end too soon.
Asanque so too is Labor. They agreed with Mr. Andrews decision at the time.
The Howards error is not over yet.
Have they been arrested yet???
The criminal gang have to be prosecuted, so as to deter any body repeating such a holocoust upon this earth again.
The defence benches are ready for the evil cable.
Let the Trials begin.
What holocoust?
Not entirely true John of Melbourne. Burke was sent out with a carefully worded statement claiming that ‘on the basis of the information supplied to us by the government we are prepared to support this position in principle.’
I admit this is a kind of weak response, but they were also on HWA (high wedge alert) at the time. I am prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt at this stage, and judge them by how they respond to this descision now.
37 JOM
Labor agreed to support Andrew’s decision based on the limited evidence that they had access to at the time. It was also an obvious wedge issue that required deft handling.
It is interesting though that the Gov’t lawyers are stated in the article to be considering whether to appeal to the High Court.
Agreed Pancho they were on high wedge alert but the ALP can not claim to have stood by Haneef.
never mind the holocoust, what’s the evil cable?
I’m just readng the judgement now…it is scathing of Andrews and particularly his grasp of his own legislation.
#43
Telstra
With the tables turned, Howard would have called it a non-core wedge response?
#45, ha ha!
This para from the Haneef judgment tells us something of the twisted morality of the government and its politicised public service:
“122 The Solicitor-General submitted that the object of the 1999 amendments was to make it easier for the Minister to exclude from Australia persons who might be thought to pose a risk. He submitted that if some entirely innocent people were caught up in the process that was regrettable, but it was simply the price that had to be paid to ensure the safety of the Australian community.”
Has there ever been a more incompetent minister than Andrews? If anyone should have had a protection order taken out on them as they were a threat to public safety, it was Andrews. Haneef was not Rudd’s finest hour by a long shot and he might be a bit reluctant to sink the boot into Andrews. Hedley Thomas on the other hand will have an absolute field day!
John of Melbourne: The ALP is as much to blame as Howard, for failing to stand up for Haneef.
Ferny: Do you have a link to the judgment?
incompetence is one thing, diogenes, but andrews was pure evil. i wonder if he’s on a waiting list for ear-pinning-back surgery. i’d like to perform it.
Asanque, I received a copy of the judgment through my work contacts. The Federal Court generally has them available online fairly quickly though
passthe popcorn - well said
.
methinx Labor in Opposition, had to be soooooo careful with such cases.
.
Damned if they did, damned if they didn’t. Also, the Opposition is always information-poor, so its that much more difficult for them to ‘get their facts straight’. Ditto with the NT Intervention. All the paranoid rabid frothing-at-the-mouth we’ll all-be-rooned voters who support tough-on-terrorism (amongst other things) would have seen such an Opposition position as weak or communist or something along those lines. Then doubly damned by the loyal Laborites, to end up in a Lose-Lose position.
.
Andrews pure evil? Don’t think he was alone on that particular front-bench lineup. My personal Evil One was Brough, that was both *personal* and *political*. That man’s welfare policies on the disabled hurt my family Big-Time, and seeing him go down on election night was poetic justice!
.
And more from the judgment
“131 In the Minister’s Statement of Reasons (at [2]), under the heading “CHARACTER TEST”, he indicated the following matters as supportive of his reasonable suspicion of the relevant association:
(i) Dr Sabeel Ahmed and Dr Kafeel Ahmed are suspected of involvement in the London incident and the Glasgow bombings.
(ii) Dr Haneef has advised the AFP that he is the second cousin of the Ahmeds.
(iii) Since leaving the United Kingdom Dr Haneef and Dr Sabeel Ahmed have been in correspondence via on-line chat rooms. The most recent correspondence, on 26 June 2007, concerned the birth of Dr Haneef’s daughter.
132 None of these elements, individually or together, is capable of supporting a reasonable suspicion that Dr Haneef knew of, was sympathetic to, supported, or was involved in any way in criminal conduct undertaken by the Ahmeds.
The Minister said nothing in his Statement of Reasons to indicate that he had turned his mind to those questions.”
Regarding Haneef, either you are a true progressive, and therefore should have been shouting from the rooftops about the injustice afforded Haneef regardless of the consequences, or you are a phony progressive.
All you progressives: prepare to be completely underwhelmed by the Rudd Government.
And why would anyone celebrate the release of David Hicks short of his family? Are you happy he will be out and among us? I can fully understand the argument that his case was not dealt with speedily (caused in part by legal proceedings on his behalf), but he went to fight with the enemies of freedom before 9-11. I hope he is never allowed to leave the country again, and only because he is Australian and therefore it is our responsibility to protect the rest of the world from him.
We hear so many times that politicians have “the best interests of the country at heart” and “believe in public service” etc.
How do you then reconcile how “evil” politicians like Andrews and Brough can get away with tackling problems they are entrusted to carry out in such a manner that lead to them being called “evil”.
Is our parliamentary system and it’s check and balances so out of kilter when Liberals’ are in power and so well oiled and accountable when Labor is in power to explain this political behaviour.
ThE Haneef judgement as quoted above sure makes you wonder in disbelief how the checks and balances could be so ineffective.
Or are our observations just so much hubris to make us feel good after 11 years of frustration and exasperation.
54 Rain-Brough was my personal favourite too. Lots of bloggers seemed to quite like him and some even objected when I used the epithet “Jackboots” to describe him. An insider told me his staffers detested him and he was completely unable to take advice on anything. But I’m not sure about the disability policies. My daughter has multiple disabilities and we didn’t notice much change.
William,
Any chance you could set up an alternative “Vent your spleen” type forum on this site? This is getting more like Palmer’s Ozpolitics every day, with each thread degenerating into partisan sounding-off after the first couple of posts. I’m not saying they should be booted off the site completely, I’m just hoping they can be accomodated somewhere else so the rest of us don’t have to read through pages of “Howard was evil/no he wasn’t/yes he was” in the hope of finding a post on topic…..
Or is it possible to set up a couple of ‘Open’ threads and let these guys do their worst, on the condition that every other thread stays on topic?
Thanks.
“123 Much of what the Solicitor-General said regarding the object of “risk management” may be accepted. Nonetheless, it is significant that the Parliament did not simply entrust the Minister with an unfettered power to refuse or cancel visas, as it might have done. Rather, it established a scheme whereby a person who had been judged to fail the character test could be given the opportunity to have the decision revoked. The expression “passes the character test” in s 501C(4) must be given meaningful content.”
“135 Importantly, whether or not there were materials upon which reasonable suspicion of association properly construed could be found, it is clear that the Minister did not apply the proper test.”
And finally…
“The Issues Paper directed the Minister to Ministerial Direction 21. Paragraph 1.5 of that direction, which is set out earlier in these reasons, proposed a wide view of “association” as encompassing:
… a very wide range of relationships including having an “alliance” or a “link” or “connection” with a person, a group or an organised body that is involved in criminal activities.
This test, especially in encompassing “links” or connections” without any need to show sympathy, support for, or involvement in, criminal activity runs far too wide. It is a misconstruction of the statutory criterion. Having regard to its place in the Issues Paper and the way in which the Minister appears to have approached his decision, the proper inference is that he applied the wide and therefore incorrect test. In so doing, on the basis of the principles enunciated by this Court in Lobo 132 FCR 93, he fell into jurisdictional error.”
RE Evil Ministers -
agreed on Andrews and Brough. But would like to add Ruddock, Reith (gone but not forgotten), Downer, Vanstone, Abbott and the leader of the pack - John Winston himself. And pretty much any of them in fact with the possible exception of Petro Georgio.
Never, in the history of our nation has a greater collection of morally bankrupt individuals had such influence for so long.
asd the days roll by and Rudd ls imaikng both symbolic and actual moves to turn the tide I am truly relieved.
(apart from Pulp Mill, but he has plenty of opprtunities to take an out on that too).
Haneef judgement from Federal court here.
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/FCAFC/2007/203.html
62
Yes, and good riddance to the endless hagiography that accompanied JWH. Now let the revision begin, with this from Michael Duffy (no lefty this one!):
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/howard-played-the-conservative-movement/2007/12/20/1197740461213.html
The last bit cuts to the chase:
Howard attended conservative and liberal functions and told those there how important they were. His attendance was most useful for fund-raising, but in the longer term I suspect he played the conservative movement for suckers. He wanted power and he got it.
They wanted policy reform, but on the whole they were disappointed.
Was anyone at all surprised by this?
Andrews should pay the costs out of his own pocket for his incompetence.
And finally some justice is seen to be done.
May it long continue, with the appropiate sentences handed down to those who believed they were above the law.
Apologies Marcus -
it is just so edifying to see real change start to happen, which after all is what politics is in fact about.
What the…???
“But while today’s decision opens the way for Dr Haneef to return to Australia to work, the federal government may take the legal battle to the High Court.
Soon after today’s full bench ruling, counsel representing new Immigration Minister Chris Evans applied for the decision to be stayed, pending a possible appeal to the High Court.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22958323-601,00.html
Now that would seem to be a jolly good way to p*ss a lot of goodwill up against the wall. Message to Kevin…we’ve all had enough of realpolitik getting in way of justice. Leave this decision alone.
Diogenes: “…after I finished watching “Hostel” (BTW the movie proves if it looks too good to be true, it probably is)….
.
MUAHAHAHAHAHAHA - not sure what the link between ‘Hostel” ( I or II) would have with health services, but sure does tickle my funny bone
.
As for Brough and disability (amongst other welfare policies), in my son’s case, it all started when he went onto full adult Disability Pension, and started to live independently away-from-home. Brough’s Dept then felt if he could live independently as an adult, then obviously the previous 5 years of Disabled Child’s Carer’s Allowance that I had been receiving was an error, and they hit me with a back-dated Centrelink debt of several thousand dollars. Along with if he can live independently as a young adult, he can bloody well work, and hence, ergo, he’s not disabled. They also advised state health/welfare etc services, that he wasn’t eligible for pensioner discounts or community health services, while his case was being “reviewed”.
.
This set off 12 months of legal battles, with his TDRs being constantly “reviewed”, being switched onto NewStart without warning, (and then breached because he didn’t show up for work-for-the-dole tests etc), having his electricity cut-off etc. Myself being visited by federal social workers on having my son return to live at home, instead of community supported independent living.
.
During that time, I saw many lawyers, including a public solicitor specialising in welfare cases, who apologised for being late for our first appointment. She had just been given another 12 cases of intellectually disabled and brain damaged trauma victims having been breached by Centrelink with their disability pensions withdrawn after similar “reviews”.
.
I also spoke to my local federal MP who had been advised of many similar cases, and that this was gearing up for a federal cut-back on disability pension cut-offs. Disability pensions were cut by $10/week, (along with cutting other conditions on eligibility, such as the ability to do 15 hours a week of voluntary work), to be cut from a certain date, in 04 I think (not long after they got control of the Senate). Those already on disability pensions at the time of the “Welfare Reform package”, like my son, were being ‘reviewed’ in order to get them off the pension.
.
Coupled with this, were major cuts to state SPPs for disability services, such as housing, state-govt pensioner entitlements (bus passes, gas/electricity discounts etc) residential care accommodation - eg those housed in nursing homes, and ‘half-way’ houses/hostels etc for psychiatric cases etc - and Brough wanted them out.
.
In my own case, after nearly 12 mths of hell, in desperate frustration, I sent an e-mail to all TV networks current affairs shows, cc’d to my local federal MP, a few Opposition front-benchers, and Brough as Minister.
.
Within an hour I received a call from Centrelink with a “lets make a deal” attitude, 30 minutes later, my son’s case was closed. Funny that, huh?
.
Rain,
you story is a bloody disgrace. I really hope that a change in culture will permeate throughout the welfare beaurocracy so that it does what is intended - supports people who need it, rather than making their lives hell.
I have my own story regarding Child Support Agency (won’t bore you with the details) but I’m taking my case to the Social security tribunal as a last ditch effort to challenge them .
#68. Indeed. I get the feeling the Rudd government is going to dissapoint many on the left. It’ll become more of a case of the lesser of 2 evils. Already there are many signs that Garret’s ‘once we get in we’ll change it all’ comment will not come to pass. They are genuinely centralist or slightly right of center. Certainly to the right on economic issues.
All 150 Seats in the HoR have now been declared. Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t that mean that the results now tallied are final?
If so, then Labor has ended up with a total of 52.56 of the 2PP vote. Quite disappointing if you compare this result with the runs of polls they’ve been having all year. Still, a win is a win and therefore, obviously, a good result for them.
The Greens have done what I always thought they would, increase their primary vote to 7.79% This is still less than what they average at State elections. Nonetheless, Bob Brown should be chuffed.
FG @ 48
That single paragraph demonstrates how great the need was to be rid of Howard. A leader that will trade the basic tenants of a just society for political gain is taking the country on a steep downward slope.
I suspect (hope) there is a reserve of good intensions within the Liberal party. With the puppet master gone they may start to show themselves. Previously they were too timid and giddy with power to question Howard’s direction.
The glimmer of light from the campaign came when a Liberal insider blew the whistle on Lindsay leaflet. That makes at least one person with a conscience.
Pseph, Melbourne was originally a Labor vs Lib battle, but became a Labor vs Greens after the Greens got ahead of the Libs after minor party prefs were distributed. The AEC still hasn’t re-done a 2PP count for Melbourne, which will boost Labor’s overall 2PP to 52.7%.
Any explanation for the increase in the Nationals primary vote in SA? and QLD and WA for that matter.
I know the numbers are tiny, but I’m still interested as to why
Pseph @ 73
52.56% against the backdrop of nearly a year of 55 to 60 polls does seem disappointing. But I think this was an election won “against the run of play”.
The coalition shamelessly used all public resources it could bend to its will. The economy is having it best run since Jesus played half back for Jerusalem. The ALP had to win a mass of seats, so the govt could burn a dozen seats and make a very targeted defense (something Keating could not do). After 11 years of using power as a means to raise funds, and starving their own state branches, the Libs heavily outspend the ALP.
Rudd, weaving throw a minefield of wedges, had to overcome all these obstacles.
On that basis the ALP should not have got close. But Howard’s was deaf on climate change. He turned needed industrial relation reforms into a political dagger and maybe, just maybe, the Australian people thought “we’re better people than Howard supposes”.
I’m certainly not disappointed
For those who are interested, The Haneef Judgement is online here.
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/FCAFC/2007/203.html
Another interesting statistic now that the Reps votes are all counted.
It is often claimed that the Green preferences help the ALP get elected in many seats. This may be true.
However, there is one seat where we can rightly claim that the Greens got the Liberal party elected.
In particular, the Liberals won but if enough of the Green voters had preferenced the ALP then the ALP would have won (regardless of how the other minor party preferences went).
There is only one such seat.
Any guesses?
76 [Any explanation for the increase in the Nationals primary vote in SA? and QLD and WA for that matter.
I know the numbers are tiny, but I’m still interested as to why]
Squiggle are you thinking Leichardt, Dawson or Flynn? The Newspoll out yesterday on Queensland trends had the Nats primary vote on 9% so I would’t get too excited about National party prospects at this stage.
Dr Good,
I presume the ALP would have won McEwen if all Green voters had followed the HTV card.
Dr Good, Is it McEwen?
The numbers are so tight that even a very minor switch changes the result. ANd presumably the green preferences included at least 12 that went to Liberal.
Work to Rule
That is true but an ALP win in McEwen would have still needed preferences from other minor parties.
So that is not the seat I was describing. There is one seat where Greens could have given a win to the ALP (but didn’t) even if all the other minor party voters preferenced the Liberals.
Anna Bligh says Haneef can work in Queensland.
QUEENSLAND Premier Anna Bligh says she would welcome former terror suspect Mohamed Haneef back to work in the State’s health system.
The full bench of the Federal Court, sitting in Melbourne, dismissed an appeal lodged by federal government lawyers against a judge’s decision to reinstate Dr Haneef’s visa.
Dr Haneef had been working at Gold Coast Hospital before his July 2 arrest by Australian Federal Police.
Ms Bligh said she was pleased to learn of the court’s decision.
“The decision by the courts today in relation to Dr Haneef’s visa adds … weight to concerns that all may not have been as it should have been in the dealings the Commonwealth Government had with Dr Haneef,” she said.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22959109-29277,00.html
I know this is off the topic of the thread, but I doubt there will be another place to ask it.
I don’t wish to in any way minimize the tragedy of his death, but can anyone explain how Williams came to be a councilor? Rea was elected in 2004, and I can find no reference to there having been a by-election for the seat. Was Williams elected unopposed, or is there some BCC rule where party’s can replace councilors if it is close enough to the next election?
Ok. I have to leave now so I had better answer my quiz question.
The one seat where Green preferencing decisions are “totally” responsible for
a Liberal win is the seat of Swan. If all (or enough) Green voters had preferenced the ALP above Libs then the ALP would have won even if all the other voters had preferenced the Libs.
So what do people think is the way forward for the Libs. I would guess they need to focus on winning some state elections – but even out in the wide west that seems to be a stretch.
One basic problem facing the Libs is a lack of talent (doubly so at state level) and a lack of a career structure for staff and future candidates. The ALP has a network of state governments, unions, industry funds, the public service and the ABC (wink) to nurture talent and provide a career structure.
In business there are plenty of talented Liberal orientated folk, but most would pale at the thought of moving into politics. It means a pay cut, harder work, public scrutiny and public criticism.
Dr Good, I think you’re talking about Swan, where the ALP and Green vote combined is over 50%. However, this is a bit deceiving, since the Greens have top spot on the ballot, but the Donkey vote flows down to the Liberals, so some of those votes were never going to get to the ALP once the ballot was drawn.
In an outbreak of common sense Kim Carr has announced that the RQF (Research Quality Framework) has been abandoned. The time and effort that academics and general staff put into this exercise could have gone into research.
http://minister.industry.gov.au/SenatortheHonKimCarr/Pages/CANCELLATIONOFRESEARCHQUALITYFRAMEWORKIMPLEMENTATION.aspx
Re Mr Squiggle at # 76…
With respect to QLD, the National Party were able to run candidates in the (previously) Liberal Party held seats of Leichardt (3302 votes) and Forde (9550 votes), due to the retirement of the Liberal Party members in those seats. I suggest that that the overall National party vote may have gone up because they contested more seats than they did last time.
Also in the Division of Wide Bay a Liberal candidate got 20.87% in 2004, but there was no Liberal candidate in 2007 and the National Party vote went up by 20.76% there. This was however offset somewhat in Flynn where there was a low 2.46% (notional) Liberal vote in 2004 but a ’swing’ to the Liberal party of 12.32% and a swing away from the Nationals of 13.34% in 2007.
Cheers.
87- I read this British quote. “We are a party whose sole purpose through the centuries has been to win and retain political power.” Malcolm Rifkind, Conservative Foreign Secretary, 1996.
That really sums up the Libs in Australia too. I don’t think they stand for anything except getting re-elected.
Re Stephen L at # 85…
You hit the nail on the head in your last sentence… the late Mr Robbie Williams was selected to fill the Holland Park Ward vacancy, there was no by-election.
Well Diogenes -
fair enough too, when they so clearly born to rule.
Tony Abbot makes me laugh. If the Libs were to hang on to just one seat in this great nation of ours it would be his. I so enjoy his his public utterances such as his latest:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/21/2125254.htm
The heading for this article is: Rudd ‘a control freak’
which is better than the one that should apply to any comment from the Mad Monk. That heading should read:
Abbot ‘an out of control freak’
Sorry -
off topic at #93 (again).
Will this spleen never be vent?
Lord D @ 75: Does this mean that the current 2PP vote is for the only electorates where there was a straight Labor v Lib/Nat contest for the final two? This means that New England and Kennedy have also been excluded from the mix.
I clicked on to that earlier link to “Bolter’s” site and was amazed at this.
{Andrew Bolt – Friday, December 21, 07 (06:25 am)
EVERY week I get emails from readers asking me how on earth I do this job, filling endless pages with columns as wise as they are brilliant. ]
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/
Don’t you just love the continual, “modest” tone he includes in his writing.
Diaogenes,
Yes, trying to work out what they stand for (other than being in power) is the challenge for the Libs. In Victoria they are almost invisible on any issue where they might have an advantage.
I doubt that Rudd will make life any easier. His tactic of minimising any difference in areas where the Libs are perceived to have an advantage looks like continuing. This leaves them to make ground on hard right topics like unfair dismisals or “away from home” topics like climate change, health and indigenous affairs.
I think the issue crying out for a party to champion is being prepared to borrow for nation building infrastructure. The ALP won’t go there (except by stealth) because its their weak suit, and the Libs have spent much of there existence arguing against it. Maybe a minor party will come out of the shadows in the next decade.
Haneef is now free to work in Australia. Another of the Howard Government legacies goes down the gurgler. Looks like Andrews was the only reason for Haneef not being treated fairly.
Federal Immigration Minister Chris Evans will not move to cancel Indian doctor Mohammed Haneef’s work visa.
The full bench of the Federal Court in Melbourne today dismissed an appeal by the former immigration minister Kevin Andrews against reinstating Dr Haneef’s visa.
Mr Andrews revoked Dr Haneef’s visa in July, despite a terrorism related charge against the Brisbane doctor being dropped.
Senator Evans says Dr Haneef is free to return to work in Australia under his current 457 Visa, which is valid until 2010.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/21/2125622.htm?section=justin
I’m glad Rudd won but am disappointed
that on election night with 77% of the vote counted Labor had 53.41% of the 2PP
now with 94% of the vote counted its down almost 1% to 52.56%
However the size of the swings in SA in all seats listed by William proves Labor did not win the election on climate, hospitals & the education revolution etc
This ‘Labor won’ nonsense was put up by many Pseph’s % Newspapers
Looks like Mr Andrews has still not come to terms with the reality of being in opposition.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22959295-5013404,00.html
97 Scorpio, last I saw of the Bolter he was holidaying in Italy for months during the year and now he is having a break until Australia Day. Nice work if you can get it.
101 Work To Rule: Oh god, that is mind-bogglingly pathetic. Still, more or less what you’d expect from a useless chairwarmer like Andrews.
101 Not only can he not come to terms with being in opposition but Andrews aways had difficulty in coming to terms with the law. I have never seen a Minister so comprehensively rolled by the courts so often.
Even with all of Andrews stuff ups I think the ALP, at best, came out will a scoreless draw on the Haneef affair.
But in power the ALP can turn it into a win if the gormless ex-minister keep himself in the firing line. Andrew would be well “advised” to stop talking now.
Do the legal folk here have a view on how strong a case Haneef would have for damages?
Re the National Party vote, as far as SA goes the increase was because they ran 2 candidates in this election as compared to only one in ‘04.
They decreased their votes slightly in Barker both in absolute numbers and percentage and their candidate in Grey scored very poorly when you consider it was a 2 way competition for one of the constituent state seats between the Nats and the Libs in ‘06 state election.
Basically a very poor result overall for the Nats in SA.
Dunno about the other states.
A claim can always be had
It is easier being a defendant as Haneef was to win this case
Alot harder to be on the other side & prove a case against a government especially with the terror subject
Also a claim may guarantee a Government appeal of the decision
Haneef decision may help compo claim
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22958778-2702,00.html
I imagine if Haneef sues Andrews for defamation that the taxpayer will pay for Andrews legal costs and any payout. Can Andrews be directed by Rudd to apologise (and shut up) or lose the financial support of the taxpayer?
Diogenes @ 109 - No
What if it could be demonstrated that Andrews was not acting in good faith and acted incompetently against advice (not that I’m saying that was the case)?
The last para is the understatement of 2007. From ABC news
Senator Evans says Dr Haneef is free to return to work in Australia under his current 457 Visa, which is valid until 2010.
He says the former immigration minister’s calls for the Rudd Government to take the matter to the High Court will not be pursued.
“Kevin Andrews is not the one to be giving me advice about such matters, his record’s not great,” he said.
The Court held that the minister completely misunderstood the legislation, applied the character test wrongly, and took upon himself powers that parliament never intended him to have. I guess that could be construed as not acting in good faith (if his motives were political - this is not covered in the judgment) and as acting incompetently - as a lawyer Andrews had a shockingly poor understanding of the law. Nonetheless Diogenes, Rudd could not order him to do anything and certainly could not threaten him with financial penalty. Ministers, acting in their portfolio responsibilities are entitled to be represented by the Crown when matters come to litigation.
I hear so much sh..t on Nicole Cornes. I believe she was the best ALP candidate in SA. Yes she was ‘hung out to dry’ in the sense that she was badly advised at all times by the ALP right-wing mafia, and particularly at the start. But I applaud the decision to run a cleanskin in a seat where the hacks have not come within cooee of winning in two or three generations. She made mistakes, sure, but she worked extremely hard, learnt a lot, was brave under pressure and deservedly received the loudest applause of any of the candidates at the ALP’s SA campaign launch.
Diogenes Says:
I believe there is also a strong case that the pope is Catholic but I’m not saying that was the case too.
Pseph @ 96, the AEC has provided a Labor vs Lib/Nat 2PP count for New England and Kennedy, the seats won by independents. Go to the AEC VTR web site, and click on the division names and you’ll see a 2PP count below the 2CP count. Because the Greens got ahead of the Libs very late in the Melbourne count, there is no 2PP count for Melbourne yet, and won’t be until the AEC resumes operations in the new year. Currently, the AEC has 2PP counts for 149 of the 150 seats.
Also, the 53.4% on election night actually went down to 52.9% in the 148 of the 150 seats where there was, at that stage, a 2PP count. The 2PP then went down to 52.7% when New England and Kennedy were added, and has now gone down further, as Melbourne has temporarily been taken off the 2PP list. When Melbourne is added back, the 2PP will go back to 52.7%.
Work to Rule- Actually the pope does not have to be a Catholic and there are some who it debated were not. One was argued to have been a woman (Pope Joan).
“A pope is chosen by majority vote in the College of Cardinals, the member of which were themselves appointed by the previous pope(s). To win election, a person must get at least two-thirds of the votes cast. Cardinals stand just below the pope in terms of power and authority in the church hierarchy. Candidates do not have to be from the College of Cardinals or even a Catholic — technically, anyone at all can be chosen. However, candidates have almost always been a cardinal or bishop, especially in modern history.”
Phil @ 114
“I believe she was the best ALP candidate in SA”
Well I can guess you may want to support Nicole, I have no problem with that but I don’t think the quote above does justice to some of the other candidates who did a great job despite having to push shit uphill.
Check out, for example, the performance of Karen Lock in the ultra safe Liberal seat of Barker, look at the area of land she had to cover, from the SE of the state to the Riverland and imagine the travelling involved. Note that the level of support she received, both financial and personal was far less than Nicole got. OK different horses for different courses but ultimately Karen as a newby faced with a hostile press [Alan Scott territory for example] scored a 10% plus swing and should be judged a resounding success. Its not necessary to overpraise Nicole at the expense of others in an attempt to defend her.
And karen lock is not the only example of one who did well.
Cornes worked hard and learned a lot quickly, and her preformance improved greatly later in the campaign. By that stage, however, the damage was done. In any case, the premise of her winning a seat like Boothby was that the middle class was going to swing heavily to Labor, and that didn’t happen in SA or anywhere else, as we have discussed here already and as William’s comments on the booth-level swings confirms. So she would not have won no matter how well she had campaigned.
In terms of results Tony Zappia seems to deserve the title of best SA candidate. He absolutely thrashed Bob Day, a high-profile candidate with buckets of money to spend. Karen Lock in Barker, as noted, also did well. I’d be prepared to bet Patrick Secker will get booted before the next election. Maybe Minchin will feel like a change of scenery?
Adam- Thank you and St Kevin for the rain in Adelaide. 25mm today!! My wife fertilised the garden yesterday based on your prediction of rain after a Labor win. We don’t need Turnbull’s ion rain-maker after all.
The rain is great, no doubt.
but earthquakes in NZ, massive hail storms, tornadoes and melting of the ice-cap…
this could be Armageddon as the Libs warned, if Kevin of the Heavens took the reigns.
No Jen….the Lord has smiled upon the good people of Oz and removed the pestilence called the Coalition from the land. As a sign of His divine favour he has sent Kevin to reign over us and has blessed the land with refreshing rain. New Zealand, however hath no Kevin and hath displeased the Lord by being…well…New Zealanders.
The election writs were returned to the Governor General today.
COUNTING in the 2007 election is over and the result has officially been declared.
With the contentious Victorian seat of McEwen finally going to Fran Bailey for the Liberals, vote counting has ended almost four weeks after the November 24 poll.
The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) today returned the writs to Governor-General Michael Jeffery, allowing Parliament to resume next year.
The issuing of the writ, a document commanding the AEC to hold an election, triggers the election process.
On the return of the writ, the AEC endorses each MP elected for each division to the governor-general.
For the Senate, the AEC returns the writ to the state governor for each state and the governor-general for the territories.
The seat of McEwen was the final seat to be declared after Ms Bailey forced a recount when the initial results saw the Liberal incumbent losing to Labor’s Rob Mitchell by six votes.
Following the recount, the AEC determined Ms Bailey won by 12 votes.
At the close of counting today, Labor won 83 seats in the House of Representatives, the Liberals 55, the Nationals 10 and two independents retained their seats.
The new Senate, to apply from July next year, will include 37 Coalition, 32 Labor, five Greens, one Family First and one independent senator.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22960294-12377,00.html
117 -
More on that 2PP in Melbourne can be found at
http://web.mac.com/apb72/iWeb/Site%202/Election%20Blog/2285DCF5-5ECF-4C1D-82A9-8B11DB1CBD4B.html
which claims that “For the first time ever, the Federal seat of Melbourne is set to become a marginal seat, and the country’s only Labor/Greens electorate, after The Greens outpolled the Liberals to finish second.”
The good rains of Saint Kevin do keep coming
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/rainmaps.cgi?page=oldmap&variable=totals&period=week&area=aus&steps=1
He He.
Back from another few days out.
William, I have a thing or two to say about SA.
But gee, I suppose coherence matters.
From Work To Rule’s link in 101
Huh???? Don’t know whether Justice Emmett said that, or if its just Andrew’s crazy/self serving interpretation, but either way, what does it say about a law and/or the bloke administering it that you can be judged as being of bad character simply because, without your knowledge, someone else does something that may - and AFAIK none of Haneef’s relatives have yet been found guilty of anything - be illegal.
What a f#@*@#$ Alice-in-Wonderland society the Howardista fruitloops imposed on us!!! And imagine where we’d be headed if they’d be returned to power!
Steve,of the coalition in the Senate are you able to give the split Lib, Nat.
Ruddy has broken the drought. There is no doubt.
Dragon were the prophets.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jM7RcgZ1pLE
Merry Christmas.
124
steve Says:
The election writs were returned to the Governor General today.
COUNTING in the 2007 election is over and the result has officially been declared.
At the close of counting today, Labor won 83 seats in the House of Representatives, the Liberals 55, the Nationals 10 and two independents retained their seats.
Good enough for me. I get a gold star.
http://pbpredict.googlepages.com/home
Well done JJ; mad cow; Mark; Matt; Pancho; seajay; Daniel B; and Chris C.
Also credit to anyone who called it in the range 81-85.
Kevin07 is currently in Iraq
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22962169-1702,00.html
#132
Iraq the only place available this time of year when you don’t book your holiday destination in advance
According to the BBC’s weather site - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=2047 - its cloudy in Baghdad, today. Wonder if it’ll rain?
Poll Bludgers and poll lovers.
If you want to see and understand the full effect and distortion in the way the AEC calculates the Senate Surplus Transfer Value. Try this realistic based on the Victorian Senate vote. What if One Nation and the Shooters Party preference the Liberal Party before the ALP and before the Greens…
1. Using Antony Greens calculator record the percentage allocated to each group as displayed on the AEC web site
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/SenateStateFirstPrefsByVoteType-13745-VIC.htm
2. Zero out One Nation and the Shooters Party (This will get the Greens supporters all excited)
3. Add the value of One nation and the Shooters Party to the value of Family First (This will simulate the hypothetical preference swap)
Now calculate the result.
The Greens are elected as a result of the inbuilt distortional in the distribution of preferences
Family First represents 31.4% of the Liberal Party’s Ryan Vote and as such should also represent 31.4% of the Ryan surplus. But under the AEC rules and the system used Family First’s vote is devalued to just 7.6% of the surplus. Whilst the Liberal ticket vote increases in value and represents 88.6% as opposed to 68.6% .
This delivers an unfair advantage to the Greens of around the equivalent of 10,000 votes. Under a truly proportional system the ALP would have elected a third candidate.
Clearly the system used by the AEC is seriously in need of review. It is outdated designed to facilitate a manual counting system. We now have at our disposal computers to help us calculate the results of the election.
The system Must be updated to reflect the one vote one value principle.
I have decided to all this system the Wright System named after the late Jack Wright
* One Transaction per Candidate (All votes distributed simultaneously on exclusion - no segmentation)
* Surplus Transfer Value to be based on the value of the vote and not the number of ballot papers
* Remainders to remain with the vote
* If Optional preferential is to be adopted then consideration should be given to adopting a reiterative counting process where the count is restarted on every exclusion
* use of the Droop Quota remains (total vote divided by (the number of positions + 1) +1
Pure simple and proportional the Wright System.
Those of us that value a fair truly proportional system will support the above those that don’t (Green voters will want to continue to operate the outdated distorted system currently used by the AEC/Australian Senate)
* Life Member Proportional Representation Society of Australia
Looks like Kev has a date with destiny, and what better place for a date than Iraq?
Ta boom!
#114 Phil Robins Said on December 21st, 2007 at 6:36 pm
I agree 100%.
The result noted by William in Wakefield - big swings in working class areas and low swing in rural areas also had something to do with the big pork barreling promises of the Liberals with various country road promises in these areas. It is interesting to compare this with Barker and Grey which had around 10% swings concentrated in the bigger regional towns. Swings in Elizabeth and Salisbury was also something of a back to usual vote - the ALP candidate last time - Martin Evans was seen as past his use-by date and out of touch with people in what should have been strong Labor areas. Evans at one stage had resigned from ALP and won the State seat of Elizabeth as a Labor independent. Quite a few Labor voters took revenge when a close result beckoned in 2004.
I shared the same view as Phil Robins when Cornes was announced as the candidate. I no longer do.
The logic behind standing an atypical candidate like Cornes was that she was someone who could boost the Labor swing in a seat that was difficult, but nonetheless possible, for Labor to attain. However, the available evidence - a miserable swing of 2.4% - suggests the reverse was true. Not only did she fail to amplify the swing, she actually dampened it.
A hack from central casting would have done better.
Goodness, Kevin. And all of those who urged him on, to better and greater.
Water, Water!
Sure, we want rain, but!
I only want my fair share.
Talk about inexperience. Get it right!
Waving not Drowning.
In Adelaide.
senate watch/melbcity
you’re persistence is perhaps admirable, but the facts speak for themselves.
At this election Richard Dinatale polled over 10% of the primary vot
e and did not get elected.
In 2004 Stephen Fielding polled 1.8% and won a senate seat.
It is a nonsense to say that the Greens are advantaged.
So, I suggest you do as the rest of us have to and Get Over It, sweetheart.
Ferny -
when did you get ordained, and into which church?
Senate Watch 135 says:
“The system Must be updated to reflect the one vote one value principle.”
One vote one value - and you’re discussing the Senate!
When you start to argue the application of this fundamental to the Senate as a whole I’ll start to listen.
Diogenes (111)
I agree with your coments on Andrews. In fact, I have been dissappointed with Chris Evan’s weak responses so far. He is not a lawyer by training and I don’t think he appreciates how fundamentally Haneef’s rights have been trampled on. I hope he is not relying on the departmental lawyer’s advice, since some of them are part of the problem.
(And thanks for your reply on health. It made me think that returning teh private health insurance subsidy to public hospitals would be a good idea, but I take your point that a lot more than that is needed. I think you can get good executive managers for less than you suggest, but obviously those in the system now are not capable.)
Congratulations to the National Party for winning one senate seat in NSW and one in Qld. A great result for all the billions of dollars wasted in propping up this archaic party through years of porkbarrelling by Howard and Costello.
re 145. Question for someone. How do the Liberals and Nats divided up their public funding from Senate joint tickets?
Senate surpluses. Contrary to Senate Watch/Melb City (135 et al multiple noise) I would have thought the Senate surplus fractions are fair and set up for computer analysis. The system SWMC thinks is fair was the system for manual counting where each time a candidate was elected a pile of votes equal to a quota was packed up and put aside. The result was that when a surplus was distributed for say a third candidate of a major party it was unfairly weighted to the minor party votes which were collected just prior to the candidate being eliminated.
The current computer system appears to work out the a surplus fraction on the assumption that all the votes of the party and added minor party are lumped together and then a fraction is calculated. That rates equally all the votes from the relevant party and all collected preferences. Such a system was much more difficult with manual counting but a breeze with computers. Systems like the SA Upper House which still have the older manual oriented system should be changed to be like the Senate.
re 147
can the way the vote is counted using the same data… give different results in tight contests?
if yes would not this be a case for disputed returns?
Jen @ 142….Well….the truth is….before becoming a lawyer…I actually was a “Rev”. My left-wing, socially progressive and inclusive views weren’t well received in the church I belonged to (churches, sadly, are more about exclusion than inclusion), so I departed, worked in the community sector among the homeless and addicted and eventually studied law. So now you know.
146 [How do the Liberals and Nats divided up their public funding from Senate joint tickets?]
It will be like everything else with the coalition, the Liberals would grab the bread and the Nats would be grateful for the crumbs.
Ferny -
good for you.
(Have you read The God Delusion?).
Wakefield and co. You really do not know what your talking about. You should learn how to count and know how the system works. Then maybe you will understand and be in a better position to make an informed decision and comment. The AEC calculates is surplus transfer value by dividing the surplus by the number of ballot papers. Te Liberal Ticket has obver 1.2 Mil;lion Ballot p[apers but they are worth in total no m,ore then 60-70% of the suplus. But they are transfgreed at a higher proportional value at raround 90% of the surplus usinsg a system desigen dto faciliate a manual count. A good 15 years or more out of date. It most ceratlainly can and does produced a change in the outcome of the election. Not all the time but it can.
The current system distorts the value of the vote adding up to 11,000 additional votes to the Greens disproportional to their support. The hypothetically I presented clearly demonstrates this fact. In fact if you just change the preference order using One nation votes and delivering them to the Liberal party then the ALP before the greens under the AEC system the Greens Candidate is eletced yet proportionally the ALP should have been elected.
In short the system is not proportional and the Greens would have been elected unjustly.
But I guess the Green supporters do not care about democratic values or fair elections. Just as long as they get elected. Sorry but I do care and will continue to argue for the system to be updated and to ensure the one vote one value principle is fulfilled. Just as I strongly advocated for reform of the Victroiian Upper-house now I want to see the system remove the outdated bais that still exisits. Its unwarranted and unnessassary.
Yes Jen, I know of Dawkins book…and several others…though I confess I haven’t read all of Dawkins.
To William and all the Poll Bludgers…I’ve enjoyed reading your posts and I would like to wish you all a happy Xmas and a prosperous new year.
So much work to be done to repair the damage and pave the way for the future generations.
I’ll be heading up to Kingfisher Bay on Fraser Island for a well deserved rest.
Ferny -
just interested in light of your negative church experiences. As a committed Ex-catholic I reallky enjoyed his take on organised religiopn.
Vic senate watch/ melb city: to say that the Greens are not interested in democracy and fair elections is patently ridiculous.
I think you need help with your obsessive disorder.
To Senate Watch- Over 1 Million Australians voted for the Greens in the Senate. I dont think I need to say any more! Yes, Greens are very interested in democracy. Let’s get rid of the voting system that allows the House of Unrepresentatives to thrive. Just back from New Zealand . Great to be taken on a tour of Parliament House in Wellington and actually stand in a political chamber that truly reflects the votes of the people. Australia is in the Dark Ages in so many ways.
Happy Xmas to all the Poll Bludgers and especially William.
Below is a little song i sang (appallingly) at a post-election bash,
To the tune of that old country oater Jolene. My partner tells me it raised a few smiles so here goes:
MAXINE
(With profound apologies to Dolly Parton)
Maxine, Maxine, Maxine McKew,
I’m begging you please don’t take my seat,
Maxine, Maxine, Maxine McKew,
How could the man called Rodent face defeat?
You’re youthful with your pert blonde hair,
My morning walks just don’t compare,
You speak of hope while I just vent my spleen.
Jeanette and I just cannot sleep
Oh Kirribilli can’t we keep?
Wollstonecraft; it’s not the same, Maxine.
And now I just can’t understand;
Ryde, Eastwood, Epping dumped their man,
And even Gladesville turned to you, Maxine.
Maxine, Maxine, Maxine McKew,
I’m begging of you please don’t take Bennelong.
Maxine, Maxine, Maxine McKew
How did all those Asian voters get it wrong?
You could have Joe Hockey’s seat
He would have been an easy beat,
Whatever happened to my mystique, Maxine?
From King Cocky to a goose,
And now I’m just like Stanley Bruce,
The Tories Greatest Loser; Oh Maxine!
Maxine, Maxine, Maxine McKew,
I’m begging of you please don’t claim victory.
Maxine, Maxine, Maxine McKew
For I can’t face a lifetime of Hyacinth and me.
Did you stand in the Legislative Council chamber Brenton? I guess that reflects what the NZ people think of politics and politicians.
Thanks, I’d rather have our current system than the gaggle of unstable coalitions that are now compulsary in NZ.
Is the swing in Melbourne the largest of the election?
I think that’s enough rain for now, Kevin.
Too much concern with rain around here!
There’s been a little talk of headwinds of late, (does everyone remember Cossie’s U-turn from the finely tuned racing engine economy, to the one about to suffer a buffeting storm?) and none bigger than the downdraft from the US and its self-inflicted wound in the credit markets.
I know it’s but one voice, but I’m very partial to opinions of one Bill Gross, the head of a giant US bond fund manager PIMCO, as he talks straight and isn’t a Wall Street reptile. He reckons the US may have slipped into recession this month, and even if he’s left the block before the gun, it won’t be by much. Gross is not one to make flippant remarks on such stuff, and he proves his canny reading of the US market by having gotten out of mortgage backed secuities six months ago. Smart bloke.
So, be ready, the downdraft is comin’.
Like most of us who watch / post to this site I am both a political activist and a psephology ‘tragic’.
The ‘pseph’ in me has looked at what Senate Watch is arguing, and I believe it has merit. However, I think many of the responses are focusing on the partisan perspective of how the alternative - and I believe fairer - counting process would’ve affected the 2007 result. (Of course, in Victoria at least, there probably wouldn’t have been any change to the final outcome, however The Greens wouldn’t have been as close to the Quota as they did under the AEC formula.)
I believe the ‘bottom line’ is that political parties wouldn’t stand for the AEC formula being used for internal party elections because of the distortions it creates. (And I say that as a 30 year member of the ALP.)
To my mind that is the ultimate measure of whether or not the AEC formula is fair dinkum. In effect, the politicians have imposed a voting system on the population that they aren’t prepared to swallow within their own party structures.
However, I don’t believe that Senate Watch has done his argument any favours by casting aspersions at The Greens. And lets be honest, NO party will argue for change to a counting formula that advantages them. So the ‘minor’ parties probably won’t want to move away from the current formula, just as the ‘majors’ won’t don’t support multi member electorates or a state wide House of Reps multi member system, as per the McKinlay (apols if spelt incorrectly) proposal.
William,
As a ‘pseph’ I would love to see a thread devoted to teasing out the issues associated with this issue. As psephs we would all improve our understanding, and in the process raise the debate on a crucial issue. Compared with ‘1st past the post’ our mixture of H of R preferential voting and Senate Proportional Representation is one of the best in the world. However this is not to say that it doesn’t have flaws which need addressing or can’t be improved.
Given the possibility that the Senate majority could again become the cats paw of a government in future years, we should at least ensure that the manner in which votes are counted is genuinely proportional.
How about a thread William, it would give us something to THINK about and the opportunity to debate and assess the facts of the matter, rather than posters merely sniping at Gov’t / Opposition actions / policies. While that may have been understandable in the context of the campaign, I am sure that genuine pseph discussion would be a ‘higher value’ use of your band width in ‘non-election’ years.
‘Merry New Year’ all.
Oh, Maxine. Case 1352. A red and green tattoo. Eyes cold steel blue.
Old Tom.
I do not considered the arguments I am making to be “partisan” far from it it. I have been expressing concern on this issue for some time ever since I saw the effect of it in analysis of local government elections. It is only then that I realised the principle behind the system used is wrong. It could work against the ALP or in the Alp’s favour. (Although it does not directly effect the major parties it does effect the outcome of teh elections and the value of their preferences. Thjoses that try to discuss the issue by claiming it is personal or partisan only do so out of ignorance or in a partisan assessment. The Victorian Senate result is only useful in that it does provide a realistic hypothetical where the result of the election could change as a result fo a flaw in the system and not the voters choice. The same was the case when they use to have random sampling of the preference distribution.
All this dates back to the old days of typewriters and manual counts. It was seen as a trade off of proportionality to ease of accounting. Today we have computers and we are more than likely going to have a form of e-voting in the not too distant future. Now is the time to consider a truly proportional; system. we have the technology and the mans to make it happen. IN teh process we can get rid of segmentation (Which was designed to limit teh effects of the distortion (In a rather crude way) Last burndell as used in Tasmania is the same, a bit fairer but still flawed ion principle and execution.
Now is the time to consider these issues before the next election. It is only a matter of time, not a question of if but when, the outcome of a proportional election will be determined on the quick of the system and not the decision or choice of voters.
To Answer your question on Fielding/FFP No this issue did not effect the outcome of that election. It is a rare occurance and even rareer with above the line votng BUT in local government eletcons it is by far more likely.
The debate of single member versus multi-meber and the dividon of the states is a seperate issue (Happy to debate it) But the argument presented and canversed by Brenton (156) means zilch. I doubt the Greens will support this proposal as it has the potential to effect them more then the major parties The Greens have the most to lose I guess because their vote will always go down but other Minor Parties votes will regain their value.
Old Tom@162: “In effect, the politicians have imposed a voting system on the population that they aren’t prepared to swallow within their own party structures.”
The senate election system used in Australia is far superior to that used by the Greens, Nats, Labor and the Libs in their own party structures. At least in the federal election, every member (ie holders of the franchise) gets a vote. In the four major parties the members are almost completely marginalised. All important votes are done by parliamentarians or at heavily controlled conferences. For example, was it only 6 people that voted in the most recent leader of the QLD Libs?
Make no mistake, if the parties could chose an electoral system without penalty, they would get rid of voters in a second.
Yes the current system needs reform, but I would probably argue parties need more reform than the electoral system, not the other way round as you were suggesting
Rainfall will always be lower under a Liberal government.
I want to know just what have they been putting in the water of the Canadian Prime Minister lately?
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/071221/odds/odd_harper_dalailama_odd_dc
It’s a bit rich to say the Greens want to reduce democracy in this country. They stand for an independent speaker, recinding the recent law changes re electoral enrolments on the calling of an election and the introduction of public funding of elections to eliminate private funding.
Most importantly, the Greens want to get rid of the greatest undemocratic aspect of our government. They want Australia to be a republic. They have the strongest policies of all parties regarding increasing democracy in this country. To say they support anything less than better democratic processes is ignorance.
On a related issue, lets hope Kev07 reinstalls independence to those once independent public institutions such as the federal police, the CSIRO, asio and others.
For a look at how Costello kept critics at bay check this out.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/12/summer-reading-could-john-howard-have.html
Two points on the debate above regarding the current formulae for distributing surplus votes at Senate elections.
(1) It is misleading to refer to what is currently done as the “AEC formula” or “AEC rules”, as if the AEC makes the system up as it goes along: the AEC is simply following the relevant provisions of the Commonwealth Electoral Act. Any candidate who thought the AEC had misapplied the law could take the issue to Court straight away.
(2) There are grounds for suspicion whenever someone starts saying that a particular technical aspect of a single transferable vote PR formula is correct, while another aspect is flawed in principle. There are many different forms of proportional representation, including list systems with different quotas; and while they vary in many respects, including overall proportionality, few analysts would be so unsophisticated as to assert that one is right and another is wrong. Anyone who wants to explore some of these issues further should tear himself/herself away from this blog, and read Michel L. Balinski and H. Peyton Young, “Fair Representation: Meeting the Ideal of One Man, One Vote”, Yale University Press, New Haven and London, 1982.
I just finished a one sitting read of Mungo MacCallum’s book “Poll Dancing”.
The description of Howard in the opening chapter as “unspeakage and unflushable” gives you at good guide on the angle he takes.
On Howard’s treatment of hicks:
“history will forever record him as the prime minister who betrayed and abandoned one of his own citizens to arbitary imprisonment and maltreatment by a foreign power”
On the Lindasy Leaflet:
“It was satisfying that the dog of racism, so assiduously whistled up by the Dear Leader, had at last come back to bite him on the bum”
And finally on the concession and victory speech:
“… desending into senile ramblings, during which he compared his wife Hyacinth to cement. And on that note. he slid smoothly around the S-bend of history”
“Kevin made a gun-ho speech more suited to the start of the campain than the finish that demonstrated that one of his first jobs should be to hire a new speech writer”
Its probably best read by people happy to see Rudd in power or Libs with a very good sense of humor. To me it felt like reading my own thoughts on the year only better written and funnier.
Old Tom @ 162. I thoroughly agree. Melb City/Senate Watch has a least taken the trouble to understand how the senate surplus vote transfers work. Most of those who respond to him have not. Partly this is his own fault because he is his own worst enemy when it comes to arguing his case. For those who are interested I think Antony Green may have posted a reference on a previous thread to a paper that is relevant. It was by Farrell & McAllister in the Aust J of Pol Science vol 39 #3 Nov 2003 pp479-92.
Diogenes Says:
In that case a certain recent convert might be worth backing for the next go round of the papal conclave in the Sistine at what would be long odds at the moment.
It seems that the Scouse Liverbird, Cherie, has finally prevailed on Tone to forsake “the old cause that gave us our freedom, religion and laws” and he has “turned Papist himself”. I wonder if he thinks he looks good in red socks?
The mad Tory crone, Ann Widdecombe, herself a convert to Catholicism has questioned the validity of Blair’s complete and unalloyed acceptance of Romish teachings.
A more orthodox view on why Howard lsot the election. Seems like a few competing theories are beginning to surface.
http://www.southsearepublic.org/article/1085/read/the_fall_on_the_sword_narrative
Steve @ 168 - As Peter Martin notes, there seems to be a degree of rewriting history going on and nearly all of it is coming from the conservatives.
While I have not a single doubt that Cossie is the thug depicted, I think its drawing a long bow to suggest the Rodent nobly sacrificed both his primeministership and historical reputation to save us from the thug’s untender mercies.
Cossie’s behavior was not that different to the rest of the cabinet. Hell, Dolly, weeks before the election, publicly dismissed those who didn’t vote for him in Mayo as ferals and leftist agitators who weren’t worth consideration. And Rodent himself was quite capable of cutting anyone who crossed him off at the knees, as any of the press gallery will testify. Nor should we forget all the people they did abuse to retain power, Aboriginal Australians, the refugees they brutally tortured both physically and psychologically, Hicks, the people of Iraq, Muslims, Haneef, Vivian Alvarez Solon, Cornelia Rau…….
This was a government of power addicted thugs who would do anything and anyone to maintain their fix. Cossie was no worse than the others.
Peter Martin’s speculation on Howard sacrificing himself to keep Costello out of the PM’s chair is inconsistent with the story that Howard told his colleagues post-APEC to roll him. Admittedly the latter story would have resulted in an outcome which Howard had resisted for a decade but it would have been in the full knowledge that Costello would have only been PM for a few months until being thrashed at the election, preserving Howard’s legend and seeing Costello drink from the poisoned challice.
The actual outcome was possibly the best possible for two nasty individuals.
The AEC is Tye one responsible for reviewing the processes and initiating change. yes politicians can do so also but n reality iotis the AEC that has the biggest say. The above -the-line voting system was supported and advocated by the AEC who rejected calls to allow preferential voting above the line - Reason is that it complicated the count.
The problem with all the various “proportional systems “And I have read them all is that they are designed to facilitate a manual count, means of achieving a semi proportional system with tradeoff to ease the counting process. last Bundle is one such example as used in the Hare-Clarke tasmanian system. segmentation was introduced a as means of limiting teh distortion in the “ballot paper” based formula. prior to the the computerisation of counting the election I use to advocate teh PR societies last bundle system and its FIFO segmentation rules BUT I know can no longer advocate this model. Whilst it is better then many of the other outdated system that fact remains that it is not truly proportional.
The time is right to change the system. get rid of segmentation and adopt a purely proportional count based on the value of the vote not the number of ballot papers.
That is what I am advocating the “Wright” System. Jack Wright was the author of a book called the Mirror of a Nations mind. It is worth reading for those who want an overview of teh various system. With the computerised counting of the ballot there is no longer need to trade-off proportionality for ease of manual counting. a Reiterative counting system is also not out question.
My extensive experience in advocating electoral reform has shown that if you can get the AEC to adopt the right system then all others State, Local Government and even political parties follow. I believe the parliament may already be supportive of the recommended change, Question is will the AEC also support bring teh system up to date and adopt a more proportional and fairer system or will they adopt a do nothing no change attitude that they have done so in the past. I would also very much advocate the ALP to adopt the system internally also. There is no merit in using the current inherited flawed system in a computerised count. They are building in and perpetuating a error in the calculation that no longer is justified or warranted.
Again…
* One transaction per candidate (No need for segmentation of the vote - all votes transferred in a single transaction)
* Surplus transfer value to be based on the value of the vote not the number of ballot papers.
* remainders to remain with the vote.
* Possible adoption fo a reiterative count should optional preferential ballots be adopted.
* The Commission to publishes the preferential data files used to calculate the results of the election.
Simple, proportional and much fairer then what we have today.
Have you lot finished counting yet?
Sturt - i quite like Mia Handshin and think she could usefully come over here and make a useful addition to UK politics.
You can have Sarah Teather (UK LD)
thankyou William for this wonderful site and thanks to the bloggers who’ve given this old dear hours of pleasurable reading and lurking, thankyou kevin for the wonderful downpour of the last couple of days– my roses rejoice, with a contented sigh i wish you all a great xmas and a wonderful labor new year, my only problem i have in the new year is what to train my dog Charis to do next her snarling bark everytime Howard was shown on telly was a wonder to behold.
Way off topic in one sense, but way on message in another, is this quirky little bit of news about the first ever recorded outbreak of a tropical disease in Europe.
Folks, the warming has begun, and the unexpected is occuring:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/23/world/europe/23virus.html?em&ex=1198472400&en=dfb6ef2417167f5b&ei=5087%0A
…related to Dengue fever, it is a virus carried by a newly arrived mosquito.
And to think, about a year ago John Howard (remember him?), was dissing Al Gore and still not committed to the science of climate change.
The Rodent is gone, and not a moment too soon.
If the Eslake-Martin allegations about the behaviour of the ANZ CEO John McFarlane are true then this raises a number of important questions for both the people of Australia and ANZ shareholders.
Firstly it seems extraordinary that McFarlane should have reacted the way in which he did. The ANZ management presumably relies on the fact that the advice and analysis of their in house experts is independent and not influenced by anything other than a desire to be accurate. Surely it was not in the best interests of the bank for a staff member (albeit senior) to be urgently contacted by the chief executive and told that the bank had been threatened by a politician. My experience and observation of such things is that the appropriate management behaviour at such times is for the management to protect and shield staff. McFarlane must have been in a right panic. Eslake was still on the road travelling back to Melbourne when he was contacted. A prudent executive would surely have pondered the situation and the best course of action to take for some while.
This then brings up the question of the circumstances and appropriateness of Mrs Costello’s appointment to a lucrative position on the ANZ’s staff. As Crilkey opined at the time:
Midnorthcoast@158,
“Thanks, I’d rather have our current system than the gaggle of unstable coalitions that are now compulsary in NZ.”
You’re entitled to your opinion but as a NZer I hardly think the NZ system in practice is “a gaggle of unstable coalitions”. I would hardly call having the same Prime Minister (Helen Clark) and Treasurer (Michael Cullen) - and virtually the same senior Ministers in a Labour-led government - for 8 years, unstable.
Indeed there is nothing inherently unstable about NZ’s (and Germany’s) Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system. If the MMP system was applied to the recent federal House of Representatives election results (assuming 80 electorate seats and 70 list seats - the latter to ensure proportionality) Labor would have won 70/150 seats (with 43.38% of the vote), the Liberals 59/150 (with 36.28% of the vote), the Nationals 9/150 (with 5.49% of the vote) and the Greens with 12/150 seats (with 7.79% of the vote). None of the other smaller parties, as they have less than 5% support nationally would have won any list seats. Most probably neither one of the two Independents would have won their electorate seats as electorate seat boundaries under MMP would be different - ie. cover a larger population/geographical area).
On those numbers a Labor-Green coalition (70+12 seats) would have a combined 82 seats and a Liberal-National opposition (58+9 seats) would have 68 seats. That would give Labor and the Greens a 14-seat majority, hardly what I’d call an unstable coalition.
Ooops that should be “(59+9 seats)” NOT “(58+9 seats)”
Hi Senate Watch, your rantings against the Greens are so amusing! Why dont you attend the Global Greens conference in Sao Paulo in Brazil next year between May 1-4. It might be a good opportunity to chat to Greens from around the world about the electoral systems in various countries. Dont worry, the Greens are going to be around for a LONG time yet!
And Mid-North Coast, yes New Zealand abolished their Legislative Council , just like our state of Queensland did as well. I dont have any problem with the abolition of upper houses, as long as their is proportional representation in the remaining Chamber of Parliament.
As far as unstable coalitions in New Zealand? I think from my observations that New Zealand is a successfully functioning democracy and by the way what about about our Australian ‘gaggle of unstable coalitions’ between the Liberal and National Parties??? It alll depends on personal interpretation of what is successful government??? I find that people who rubbish proportional representation are usually staunch Liberal and Labor Party people(they are used to having SO much power) Both old and new political movements should have the opportunities to be represented in our parliaments. I like the New Zealand system because politicians of all parties have to work hard for EVERY vote! Also, if new parties are not up to scratch, they will very quickly be dumped. In fact the next New Zealand election will probably deliver a National Party government in their own right, so coalitions are not always to be expected with that system. Also, most of the countries in Europe have similar political systems and PLEASE dont tell me that they are not successful, thriving, dynamic societies.
Kiwipundit- Thanks for your comments about the New Zealand system of government. New Zealand is a wonderful country and is LIGHT YEARS ahead of Australia in so many areas, especially social justice.
Brenton, thanks for your comments too - especially in reply to Senate Watch and Mid-North Coast.
Perhaps with Rudd as your new PM Australia may make progress on social justice issues which languished for 11 years under Howard.
I think the correct collective noun for conservative coalitions is “giggle” not gaggle.
Full distributions of preferences info is now available from the AEC:
at last.
There are many interesting things to see.
Eg, Lindsay Tanner would have lost his seat (Melbourne) if more of the Liberals, FF and other minor party voters had followed their how to vote cards. But 16% of the Libs put Tanner above the Green and helped save him.
Greensborough Growler, your comment is very witty! Unfortunately, with most conservative coalitions there is usually ‘nothing, to giggle about’. I have a vision of Phillip Ruddock in my mind!!!!!
Another interesting fact from the preference distributions.
In O’Connor in WA, Wilson Tuckey possibly only survived by 600 votes (despite the final tally looking good).
Eg, when the Green’s candidate was excluded there were only 3 candidates left in the race: Tuckey(Lib), Rose(ALP) and Gardiner(NP who campaigned strongly on doing something about climate change). Now some 900 Green preferences went straight to Tuckey instead of Gardiner or Rose. If about 600 of those had instead gone to Gardiner then he would have overtaken Rose to be in second place. When Rose was eliminated then most of his prefs would have gone to Gardiner and were enough to defeat Tuckey.
Also available now from the AEC, details of preference flows.
Eg, on average Greens’ prefs go 80% to ALP.
But this ranged from only 54% in Fowler(NSW) to about 92% in Batman(Vic).
They have not done the full distributions for everyone. They have not done Higgins. Also I am a bit confused. I voted below the line in the Victorian senate. Was my vote counted? Do they stop counting once all the quotas are filled?
Higgins was won outright by Costello getting more than 53% of the primary vote so there is no need for a full distribution of preferences.
However, the AEC does look at all the votes in every seat to do a two candidate preferred flow analysis. For Higgins it is at
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionTcpFlow-13745-215.htm
It shows, for example, that 83% of Green votes pref’d ALP in Higgins.
Brenton @ 189,
Ruddock is more your Dorian Grey character in reverse. The public figure beacme so ugly as he compromised all those things that drew him to make a life in public.
I am sure there is a painting somewhere of Ruddock as an idealistic human being who believes in human rights and the fair go for all.
If anyone other than me is interested in foreign elections, the New Mandala website is blogging live on the Thai election results as they come in this evening. The polls close at 7pm AEDST (ie at 3pm in Thailand, presumably so everyone can get an early night), so figures will start to appear some time later. There will be some quite well-informed people participating so if you want to learn more about Thai politics this would be a good way to do so. Under the new constitution they have gone over to German-style MMP, with 400 MPs elected from 157 multi-member constituencies, and 80 elected by PR from eight 10-member constituencies, so everyone gets to vote for both a local MP and a party list. The coverage is here:
http://rspas.anu.edu.au/rmap/newmandala/2007/12/23/new-mandalas-live-election-coverage/
Scaper impersonator comment deleted, along with subsequent discussion thereof.
For all the talk about New Zealand’s voting process, I’m told by a New Zealander that the Country is poorly run, basically the only way to get ahead in NZ is to move to Australia, basically the Government is all about slogans and nice pictures.
The Thai election cartoons.
http://www.2bangkok.com/elections2007b.shtml
181
Albert Ross Says:
December 23rd, 2007 at 11:25 am
If the Eslake-Martin allegations about the behaviour of the ANZ CEO John McFarlane are true then this raises a number of important questions for both the people of Australia and ANZ shareholders.
Firstly it seems extraordinary that McFarlane should have reacted the way in which he did. The ANZ management presumably relies on the fact that the advice and analysis of their in house experts is independent and not influenced by anything other than a desire to be accurate. Surely it was not in the best interests of the bank for a staff member (albeit senior) to be urgently contacted by the chief executive and told that the bank had been threatened by a politician. My experience and observation of such things is that the appropriate management behaviour at such times is for the management to protect and shield staff. McFarlane must have been in a right panic. Eslake was still on the road travelling back to Melbourne when he was contacted. A prudent executive would surely have pondered the situation and the best course of action to take for some while.
This then brings up the question of the circumstances and appropriateness of Mrs Costello’s appointment to a lucrative position on the ANZ’s staff. As Crilkey opined at the time:
…it’s not a good look for Tanya Costello to go from being a suburban solicitior to a better-paying job at the ANZ….
Albert, very interesting indeed.
What you also have to take into account are inter-ANZ politics …. literally. ANZ’s Chairman was (and sadly still is) one Charles Goode; Melb establishment figure (ex JB Were) and one of the Lib party’s chief fundraisers heading the Cormack Foundation.
McFarlane deserves much credit for the regeneration of ANZ but is still still looked upon somewhat askance by some in establishment circles. The McFarlane - Goode relationship ……… Perhaps the most appropriate assessment to make is to observe Goode’s influence in appointment of the new CEO.
Perhaps this shed some different light on this incident. We are also not privy to the Costello/McFarlane exchange.
It is even more interesting given the word on the street is that Costello has knocked back an offer to the ANZ. $4mill is the package being sought. Macquarrie Bank may bite just to have an ex Federal Treasurer on their Board.
Hmmm. Might be time to change banks
This was how the Age saw it in August 2006. I don’t remember seeing this story at the time myself for some obscure reason.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/costello-mate-appointed-wife-to-anz-job/2006/08/03/1154198268236.html
Former WA Liberal Premier Sir Charles Court died at the grand old age of 96.
And ironically, today marks the opening of the Perth to Mandurah rail line, the iroiny of it is that Sir Charles in 1979 closed the Fremantle line for 3 years and was going to convert the train line into Bus lanes.
The line was re-opened in 1983 by Brian Burke.
Loving the Ruddster. Another day, another Howard legacy demolished. Iraq withdrawal confirmed with troops. He’s really rattling through them. Its almost like John Whathisname never was!
And on whaling, he’s really demonstrated what a bunch of pussies the Libs really were, despite all their posturing.
The Libs were into Manichean and simplistic world views - good guys v bad guys on foreign affairs - they worried about who was talking, not what was being said, or done.
Good to see an independent line taken on an ‘ally’ - who happens to be committing gross outrages on our turf.
Peter Martin a month ago had this intriguing piece about how Costello dealt with the Democrats.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/peter-costello-at-close-quarters.html
Lefty E, 204, it’s also refreshing to see footage of Ruddster engaging with troops, politicians and sundry others and looking like the international citizen little johnny could never be (those cringe-making sequences where he tried to make smalltalk with the ‘foreigners).
TPS, a regular commenter here has done his ‘Best of 2007′ post. It is always good value.
http://thepipingshrike.blogspot.com/2007/12/best-of-australian-politics-2007.html
Happy Christmas bloggers!!!
None of you lefties deserve any presents this Christmas, according to your own lights, you already have the best present possible - Rudd as PM - at Christmas time too!!!
I saw the footage of Kevin Rudd in Iraq and couldn’t help but ask two questions:
One- how tall is he? is it my imagination, or is he taller than he was when he was opposition leader?
Two - has Kevin actually explained why he supports the war in Afghansitan but not in Iraq? or is the ALP media machine skillfully steering the media away from analysing that obvious double standard……
Mr Squiggle, thanks for more proof (if any were needed) that, even at Christmas time, Tories make the WORST losers, must be that born to rule mentality…
On Afghanistan, Mr Rudd has explained this many times so I wont bother again, just cast your mind back to the reasons for the respective wars…
PS Im especialy loving Howard’s occasional media leaks to the effect that “he isnt bitter and twisted like some former PMs!”.
Look at him hitting a feckin golf ball. What more proof could be needed!
Then a few days later, another leak to the effect that “he isnt bitter and twisted like some former PMs”.
I imagine the leaks will stop when he realises no one cares either way. Then the bitter twistedness will really set in
-Agree that a discussion about this topic should be interesting. I think there has been discussion on other blogs about this, but this group would be a good one to tear it to bits. Proportional representation in the reps is my preference, for the reason given below.
-Kiwi, your comparative analysis is intriguing. What a breath of fresh air to have that coalition in the Reps.
Doesn’t look like the Libs will be in power in Vic for a while
VOTERS have endorsed the handover of power in Victoria, with the John Brumby-led Government opening up a record margin and improving sharply on Labor’s performance at last year’s state election.
The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, has Labor garnering 60per cent of the vote after preferences, with the Ted Baillieu-led Opposition floundering on 40 per cent.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22968124-601,00.html
With the demise of the federal Liberals and the hopelessness of their state counterparts and not to mention the total collapse of the Democrats…is there room now for a new political force to emerge out of this mess to give the people an option for the next election???
We need strength in opposition to ensure that the government doesn’t overstep their mandate.
Kiwipundit at 182
Just two words “Winston Peters”
Just a quick note to say Merry Christmas and to wish everybody the best Kevins for the New Year. Cheers for the entertaining and deeply informative read over the past few months: yez are all tops.
A few of us get together to do a two-week long pub theatre revue every year here in Launnie - and we had wealth of riches to play with for this year’s number… While not nearly on a par with seajay’s effort at 157(?), thought I’d dish this one up:
—-
“And now, a special Christmas treat from our special guests… the Liberal Party Choir of Hard Knocks…
The first we knew the swing was on
Was when John looked bad in Bennelong.
He couldn’t fend off Maxine McKew-ya.
Seats fell like this on that Saturday night
Braddon then Bass then Corangamite*
And Queensland delivered the Ruddslide to ya.
Kev & Julia
Kev & Julia
Kev & Julia
Kev & Julia
Our borders were strong but you needed proof
So we intervened in Aboriginal youth.
We choiced ya work and really tried to screw ya
(without you noticing)
But Abbott was late and we were liars
Who came unstuck with Muslim fliers
And interest rates - but still we thought that we wa
Born to rule ya
Born to rule ya
Born to rule ya
Kev & Julia
—-
*aware that Corangamite didn’t fall on that Saturday night… but, hell, it rhymed quite nicely…
Anyway all, Merry Christmas again, and please forgive the indulgence!
213 [We need strength in opposition to ensure that the government doesn’t overstep their mandate.]
It’s just a matter of wait a decade and a half and your wish might be granted. The flaw is that the Liberals handle Government poorly and opposition more poorly.
Hi Andrew,
Ha! >>> Happy Christmas anyway.
Regarding the ALP’s double standard over Afghanistan vs Iraq, I honestly haven’t heard anything substantial regarding the ALP philosophy.
Being a good analyst, I went looking at the ALP website.
The ALP home page has links to over 60 press releases on issues the ALP is concerned about - none of them are in relation to Iraq or Afghanistan.
Clearly, their feeling is that their policy won’t bear close scrutiny
Eventually, I found “Labor’s Plan for Defense”. It says the following on Iraq and Afghanistan:
“Iraq has diverted Australia’s defence resources away from the military action against Osama bin Laden, Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, and the prevention of terrorism in our neighbourhood”.
Basically, the ALP is saying there is nothing wrong with the war in Iraq, we just haven’t got enough combat troops to maintain our committment there.
Is that it? Its OK to have diggers in Kabul but not in Baghdad?
Who could be satisfied with a double standard like that
GREAT news in Vic, my home state, with Brumby Labor having a 51-34 primary vote and 60-40 2PP advantage. Looks like the transition to Brumby has worked very well so far for Vic Labor. Victoria, the jewel in the Labor crown.
217 [Who could be satisfied with a double standard like that]
Sounds like a bit of a leading question, Squiqqle. Right up there with,” have you stopped beating your wife?”
A leading Question explained.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leading_question
Steve,
I’ve been unlucky in love, so I thought I’d swing a few at the ALP
Kevin Rein’s doing a geat job at the moment, kicking goals from all positions on the ground
Except on this point….why-oh-why does he support troops in Afghanistan but not in Iraq?
I can’t see a way to make it make sense
On the NSW meningitis case, if the reports are true, I’m going out on a limb and saying something I never do.
The doctors are at fault, NOT the administrators! This little boy presented with textbook symptoms of meningitis. Headache, neck pain, fever and vomiting. To just check his blood count and say the white cell count is normal so he doesnt have meningitis is a huge error. In overwhelming infections, the white cell count is often normal or may even be low. And the moron CEO has now twice stuffed up in his comments (so I can still bag an administrator).
1. The tests were not for a virus, they were for bacterial meningitis.
2. To argue that it is impractical to perform a lumbar puncture on everyone with meningitis symptoms is farcical. There is an index of suspicion and when the symptoms are close enough, you do a lumbar puncture.
This is a tragic event and I feel terrible for the family.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22967810-5006009,00.html
“The conditions just aren’t there for a change of government” (Lord Dolly Downer, August 2007…and September…and October…oh and a couple of times in April and May too).
Precious, precious memories….Merry Christmas All!
The Afghanistan action was sanctioned by the UN I believe.
The Iraq invasion went against the wishes of the UN and can be construed as an illegal action that opens up the question of a crime that was committed by the CoW.
I would personally like to see a combat troops withdrawal there in the future and more focus on rebuilding and training.
216…What do you think will be the position of a party that rules for this long period?
Have we learnt nothing from the tenure of the last government, or do you honestly believe that Labor are not capable of repeating the same behaviour?
Well, Squiggle I can’t help you on either point as I am not a counselor and don’t write policy for the ALP or anybody else. My only claim to fame is being here and watching events fold and unfold. In this world there are many things that don’t make sense.
Ok steve…happy Christmas
Do I detect the cloak of neutrality?
Happy Christmas bludgers, and a Kevinly New Year. Steve - wondered what that noise was floating down from Launnie. Good work mate.
Absolutely Diogenes.
It seems that the media assumes that the NSW Government is at fault for any problems that its servants create - not just in Medicine but in all fields of government endeavour. The opposition gets a free kick every time a clinical problem is reported.
Just a few years ago it would have been the Cas resident who was named and blamed, like the yellow man in ‘House of God’ this resulted in quite a few careers and lives being ruined- I am not sure how this change has occurred, but at least the Government has broader shoulders.
Of course sensible reporting and discussion of the nature of meningitis including the difficulty of making an early diagnosis and the deadly course of the disease is unlikely to appear in the press soon.
As the Presedential candidates in the US say: Happy Holidays. In Australia, there will only be two stories next year - the (very) tough budget, and Brendan Nelson. The first will last a week, the second will run for months and months. Nelson will survive 08, but not 09 as speculation will mount about an early Rudd election. Nelson’s poll numbers will be Crean-like - and the Libs will act. That’s what will keep this site relevant and interesting.
221
Squiggy, there’s a world of difference between both the intentions and the outcomes in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Firstly, Afghanistan, as has just been pointed out, was invaded to rout al Qaeda and the Taliban who refused to hand them over, and this exercise had UN approval as a direct consequence of 9/11. Iraq on the other hand had no UN approval, in fact they had weapons inspectors who virtually knew that Bush’s ‘evidence’ of WMD was rubbish and were about to prove it, except GWB pre-empted them. The rest is, as they say, history.
Occupying Iraq IS the problem. There is no way that Sunni Baathists would truck with Wahhabist fundamentalists unless it was to oust a common enemy, and even that nexus has been broken because al Qaeda people where drawn from crims and mafia gangs who had no ethics and tried standover tactics on the al Anbar Sunni tribes. This pushed the western Sunnis to seek US help to move the thugs out and gave them grounds to ask for arms and training. (Just watch this come back to bite everyone on the bum when the Yanks pull out). In other words, the slow fuse is burning in Iraq unless the political situation can defuse it. There is NO military solution to the sectarian and ethnic conflicts.
Afghanistan, on the other hand, was al Qaeda central, and now it’s moved back one station to al Qaeda Redfern (to use a Sydney analogy). Pakistan is the putative centre of bin Laden’s mob, but they can move over the tribal zones of Pakistan into Afghanistan readily. Pakistan is a HUGE problem, is armed with nukes, has an unstable government with some very rabid fundamentalists partly allied with the secret services; indeed, a heady and toxic cocktail.
Leaving Iraq militarily, which is what all the major players want to do, and the Brits are well on the way to doing, will have serious geopolitical implications, but they do not entail nukes, nor a significant resurgence of radical Jihadism. It will be some kind of Balkan’s condition, probably requiring blue helmets for a decade plus, but it will not be nearly as dangerous as letting Afghanistan become home turf for the jihadi nutters.
So, there is a great geopolitical difference, and more importantly for Australia, Afghanistan is connected via groups like JI and the radical groups in Malaysia and the Phillipines, to our direct region. The Bali bombers were, via the likes of Hambali, in a direct line to bin Laden’s Afghan operations.
It is in OUR interests, to make a stand in Afghanistan, and, I would argue, it’s also in our interests to move out of military operations in southern Iraq. You may like to debate me on that point, or have an opposing opinion, but I suspect you may come to the same conclusions if you were armed with the facts.
Merry Xmas
PS Note I did not mention Iran, not because it isn’t a very big regional player, but because almost all of what you read in the local press is mostly unmitigated rubbish and disinformation promulgated from Washington’s neocon rump. Condi Rice has at least managed to have Cheney muzzled for now, and hopefully will keep him restrained until this appalling administration limps off into history.
228 Midnorthcoast- I remember spending three years in Emergency seeing children and being petrified of sending home a kid with meningitis. It is one of those diagnoses that are very difficult. The symptoms are vague and common (headache, fever, vomiting) and the signs are almost impossible to reliably detect (try getting a sick kid to demonstrate stiff neck and photophobia). And it is incredibly deadly and rapid. With a disease like that, you need a simple investigation to help you but in meningitis the only useful one is a lumbar puncture, which is very invasive and not undertaken lightly.
There are some diseases that medical thought patterns (ie pattern recognition, sensitive investigations, and looking for common things) don’t work well for and meningitis is one of them. It is more a failing of medical thinking than the individual doctors, but in retrospect, it looks pretty grim.
229
alpal
As you say, Happy Holidays! And Merry Christmas to all ya Pollbludgers and a very special thankyou to William.
It’s quite an amazing process in the US, eh? Watching the candidates of both sides I get the impression that there’s a real mood for radical change in the US of A. Is it a long bow to draw to suggest that we’ve just had our ride of that wave and it’s now powering its way over the Pacific and is about to crash on their shores?
Our systems are markedly different, but there’s more than a vague similarity between the way the conservatives have been behaving in government, a kind of authoritarian disregard for democratic norms and a corrosive abuse by the executive of all the arms of government. Even here, the way Howard took us to Iraq, stood over bureaucrats and even the ADF in chillin’ overboard, smacks of government gone wrong, and power out of control.
It’s the same, but magnified immensely in the US, and the way the ‘fresh’ candidates, those without political barnacles, like Obama and Huckerbee are coming up the outside in the presidential race says something about people’s desire to get the ugly powerbrokers out and start afresh.
(Disclaimer: I’ve got money riding on Obama and Huckerbee, and also McCain at VERY good odds. I do not necessarily endorse any political positions of them, but do rather like Obama. McCain is a very outside position if Huckers can’t appeal to the toughnut Repblicans who also won’t be able to stomach Romney or get the numbers from the religious right for Rudy).
In a way, Rudd was our fresh start, in a way that Beazley could never have been. Anyone trying to out Bush George on ‘toughness’ is almost certain to fail to become President because the fear and loathing is just wearing off, it’s had its day, and the people are tired of being herded with the 9/11 cattle prod. (That should see Guiliani out of the race for one, and Romney for another.)
Peter Hartcher did a good piece on this in the SMH this weekend, how the conservatives are retreating in the West, they’ve had their run, they’ve exhausted themselves and are fracturing into various compenent parts.
Whilst the great Satan of Joe Stalin’s regime still had a collective name, it was the anti-god/capitalist/democracy force that conservatives saw as their nemisis. But that’s all gone, and the jihadis are too decentralised to take their place. There’s only so many times you can invoke a lucky strike by 19 young men and three airliners, (although Rudy still hasn’t found that limit yet!).
As for distorting executive power, and crowning oneself Emperor, the Yanks have had a gutfull of it, and they seriously want their democracy back, and my guess is that they won’t be in a hurry to hand power to anyone who is tainted with an air of absolutism or has been corrupted by doing deals with it (that knocks out Hilary).
It’s impossible to guess how it will go, their politics is vicious and even more incredibly corrupted by big money than we can imagine, but somehow I get the feeling there will be tectonic changes with a Democrat controlled congress and President, and we sure as hell need them!
KR at 221
That’s good analysis, you’ve obviously got a deeper understanding of the complexity of the issue than I do..
I am going to pay more attention in the future, because, like you I think this horrible mess in Iraq will last for decades.
Also, I agree the case for war in Iraq was humiliatingly botched..
However, if we needed to quickly sum up the ALP reason for pulling out, would it be fair to characterise it as:
“its just too hard in Iraq” and
“we can have a better impact by focusing on Afghansitan”
???????
If so, I wish the ALP would just say so
233 Squiggy, no, it’s not about being ‘too hard’, it’s about how effective we can be and what’s a real priority. Notice that Rudd is not talking about removing training for the Iraqi forces, but removing our relatively small operational contingent.
We can get much better value utilising them in Afghanistan where we can ‘make a difference’, rather than in southern Iraq where we have much less military impact. It’s a complex issue, but personally I think it is a sound decision, it withdraws us from being seen as Bush’s pet ally, does very little harm, and re-deploys the grunt force into a region nearer to our own interests.
It also reverses Howard’s lame excuse for keeping us there, ie the sky will not fall in and the ‘terra-wrists’ will not have ‘won’, or any other meaningless mantra that was first scripted for George Bush by his neocon nutters.
Kirribilli at 230
Nice - succinct and straight shooting. But I feel Mr Squiggle’s position is dictated by trying to salvage something, anything, to ease the recently inflicted wounds rather than a greater understanding of the issues.
He has tried to frame the discussion as Rudd being desultory. Iraq/Afganistan was incidental - clearly a case of looking for an issue to attack Labor (a poor choice, really).
I see no contradiction between supporting troops in Afghanistan and not in support of them being in Iraq.
Afghanistan was packed by the UN, after the Taliban Government chose to house Osama who funded the murder of over 3,000 people
Do I need to remind you that America was attacked without provocation and in clear breech of International Law.
Al Qaeda have on many occasions blatantly broken International Law with their attacks on People who are clearly not involved in the Military.
Iraq “the War for many reasons” is a different story for the simple reason there was no connection between Iraq and any act of aggression towards the U.S
The War in Iraq was on one hand very legal, but was the wrong war to be fighting at that time, we should have focused on Afghanistan.
Osama has also funded the Murder of many other civilians around the globe
235…I didn’t read Mr Squiggle’s position as such.
This is a very complex issue and I applaud Rudd’s strategy of distancing us from the US by opening up direct dialogue with the Iraqi leadership.
Like it or not, due to the actions of the last government we have been put in the position of having to stay for the long run…but on our terms.
Re; Afghanistan…I would be talking to NATO next and pressuring them to contribute by actually getting out there in the heat of battle rather than sitting back in the safe zones and expecting us to shed the blood.
Just because our forces are regarded as the best warriors in the word does not justify their cowardly inaction.
KR, I backed Obama before he even knew he was running for President. (although he probably had a vague idea). It was two days after his 2004 speech at the Kerry DNC convention. I got staggeringly good odds. Obama will win Iowa on Jan 3 and New Hampshire five days later. That, in my view, will propell him to the forefront - he will be then very hard to beat, even though the Clinton machine is the most formidable seen in the US in living memory. (and she’s way ahead in Florida and California and New York which deliver a large number of delegates).Huckabee will probably win the early Primaries - but I think McCain will prevail. He crosses the partisan divide - Huckabee embodies it! It will therefore be a run-off between Obama and McCain. I’m wishing an Obama win - not for the money, but because he really does represent hope and change.The Rodent will not be amused. After all,an Obama win was going to be a victory for the terrorists!!
BMW…How did you fare with that dismissal?
Got into a better situation?
Re: Iraq/Afghanistan
As a mere observer ,I have a problem with the whole over-reaction from the US-what if Britain had taken the same approach to Ireland when the IRA bombed London?
The whole strategy of major bombing rather than using the forensic skills of say a Mossad(who would have found Osama et al in no time), has me questioning the motive.
What has further troubled me all these years is why, when all aircraft were grounded after the twin towers attack, the aircraft of the Osama family(close friends of the Bush family) was one of 6 aircraft given permission to fly.(Craig Unger’s book ” House of Bush;House of Saud…” 2004)
And then I read this more recent update which poses further questions:
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/062207A.shtml
Or indeed the comparison with the attitude of the Irish government and people to the outrages in Dublin and Monaghan perpetrated by agents of HMG in 1974. It should be noted that, although such comparisons are odious, the loss of lives in that case was greater on a per capita basis than the 9/11 toll.
Wrong. The case for war was not botched. There was no case to botch.
And the best way of ensuring it doesn’t happen again is to bring to justice the oil addicted warmongers who started it, including the Howard cabinet and the 2003 ADF commanders.
Bryce at 235
I don’t mean to be desultory on this issue, but I am going to suggest the ALP’s message is being deliberately vague…
Kirribilli Removals is right, the issue of occupation of Iraq needs to be separated from the reasons for invading.
The lack of clarity in ALP policy on this issue intentionally allows room for ALP supporters who believe we should pull out of Iraq because, and only because, (in thier view) we shoud never have gone in.
I’m seeing this move by the ALP as an evolution of the Australian contribution, something both sides of politics will be prepared to accept and work with in the future,
MayoFeral…That was a bit harsh, but I can’t disagree at all.
If we are to get serious as a global community, justice has to be delivered, regardless of who the perpetrators might be.
235
bryce
thanks for the background, I guess I haven’t been following the plot in great detail. Still, it’s probably best to refute the quibbles with some detail and hopefully stop them in their tracks.
Seasons Greetings
Ok Mayo,
I guess you are right, Iraq was just an arcadia where women and children could sleep peacefully at night
A picture post card on the wall at Amnesty International’s head office
And after all, didn’t that nice mr Saddam make the trains run on time??
No case for war at all
there there….yess, go back to sleep, hussh
239
alpal
Well done getting on Obama that early! If only I’d been paying attention to the possibilities of wagering on such things then!
As for McCain, he has one very serious drawback if we frame the mindset in ‘fresh face’ mode. All of the polls, the one that tells against him is what people would not vote for in a president, and over 70 yrs old is the standout performer. I know it’s rough, but he’s probably missed his chance. Still, I sure don’t mind if he gets up though!
Huckers is really a weird one, and although the ‘he don’t know nuthin’ ’bout nothin’ important’ stuff seems like a serious impediment, just remember what GWB looked like first time around! My god, they don’t half mind running seriously impaired characters so long as their faces fit.
It’s sure as hell going to be interesting, but the Democrats will surely know that they can’t get another Clinton into the Whitehouse, at least not the Oval Office, and would be much better running Obama.
Season’s greetings, and yes, Happy Holiday (that’s soooooo ‘cornball’ isn’t it? Only the Yanks can do such bland things to the English language and not realise how plastic it sounds)
MayoFeral- I agree, except I think we need to direct blame at the proper source, which is Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeldt etc. The Rodent just went along to support them, with Labor’s backing, as Australia always does when an ally goes to war (often with little reason). The US is the problem here.
1. There were no WMD
2. Iraq was mostly harmless on a world stage
3. Saddam hated Osama bin Laden and had nothing to do with al Qaeda
4. Saddam was an awful dictator but there have been many dictators as bad who the US did not go to war with, often because they installed the client-dictator.
247
Mr Squiggle
If you’re going to trot out that old cannard that whatever was done to the Iraqi people was jusified because Saddam was such a tyrant, you’d better make sure it does not blow up in your face. By that yardstick we would have invaded: Sudan, Burma, Zimbabwe and a few Central Asian hell holes by now.
Sorry, but that argument is an insult to anyone with an IQ above double digits and kind of scrapes the bottom of the barrell in my opinion. But don’t take my opinion, read many, even from Shiites who detested Saddam, who grieved for the mess we made of their country and the civil war it unleashed, and who even stated that they were much better off with one Saddam, and not the thousands that we let bloom.
Better leave this topic alone if that’s all you are capable of bringing to the discussion.
Season’s Greeting’s and lots of Kevinly New Years to you and yours!
Lord D @ 213
The 60% 2pp to the ALP is jaw dropping. It a testatment to how incumbant friendly the last 8 years have been. I don’t think the Bracks/Brumby govt is anything special. They are largely competant and very careful. This is all that has been required to bury the Libs. Brumby does seem to be a bit more proactive that Bracks which, I think, is a good thing.
If Rudd stays popular and the new COAG is seen to be working I wonder if it makes it harder for the Libs to win a state.
The first Liberal state premier will be a welcome as a fart in an elevator at the COAG meetings and would immediately become the scapegoat of choice for any breakdown in federal/state relations.
merry xmas everyone
KR @ 250.
You took the words from my mouth, except that canard has only one n.
However the foreign policy positions of Howard and Rudd are in fact only minimally different. They are (or were in H’s case) both foreign policy hawks. They just differ on what is the most effective way of ‘fighting the war on terror’ - what is the most effective contribution Australia can make.
you beauty i came third after preferences. Take that FF
Bill Weller, Merry Xmas to you and everyone else at Poll Bludger too. Lucky you are not coming to Brisbane to see Minnippi Parklands because the whole place went up in flames last weekwhen some driver ran off the road in a stolen car. Between drivers like that and the local developers helped along by Gridlock Campbell there may well be nothing left to see soon.
pencil nose @ 247 - KR & Diogenes are right. Always, invasion of another nation state must be under the charter and pre-conditions of the United Nations, or not at all.
Do you support, as a matter of principle, any stronger state, or band of states, because they say they have the right to do so, deposing a sovereign government by force or skullduggery?
It is interesting that the countries involved in the ‘Coalition of the willing’ have never actually experienced an occupation of their country. It is one thing to send your menfolk overseas to fight,quite another to have soldiers entering your mother’s/sister’s bedrooms with impunity while you helplessly look on…
Megan Says:
December 24th, 2007 at 6:06 pm
Note to Megan; study English history.
Season’s greetings all and thanks for the ‘brain-fodder’ these past exciting weeks.
What a wonderful Christmas …….am sure there are more smiles than usual:) !
Charles,
US? UK? AUS? Am happy to be corrected….please enlighten me.
There were others that came on board later,but these three were the initiators and without them we would not be involved today.
Mr S, on July 5 2007 in a not-uncommon (for him) Freudian slip, Horatio mentioned that securing oil supplies was a factor in Australia’s involvement in the invasion of Iraq:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/howard-links-iraq-war-to-oil/2007/07/04/1183351291906.html
The rodent slapped him down but by then it was too late. To Bubba Bush the oil consideration was primary, so ‘we’ tagged along to support our ‘friend’. The WMD nonsense was window-dressing.
Anyway - here’s to the summer solstice season. Thanks to all for the discussion to follow when at the keyboard. May there be many more discussions in the new year. May polling continue to be the hub from which the spokes of mature political discussion project.
Best wishes all
Mr Squiggle…until someone can establish a link between Iraq and Al Qaeda, there’s no cause for an invasion or occupation of Iraq. Afghanistan is the country that harbored Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda.
Australia is acting in accordance to UN decisions by having troops in Afghanistan, and by pulling them out of Iraq.
Labor always opposed the invasion of Iraq. It’s perfectly consistent with their policy (and Australian opinion polls) to pull the troops out. Rudd appears to be doing it cautiously, in consultation with the Iraqi government, which is sensible.
Just as the Whitlam Government pulls troops out of Vietnam, Rudd has a right (indeed, a responsibility) to pull the troops out of Iraq.
Incidentally, it’s interesting that Saddam and many of his henchmen have been executed or imprisoned, but Iraq is still in turmoil. What has been achieved? Buggerall, apart from senseless death and destruction. What could be achieved by “staying the course”? More senseless death and destruction.
More whinging from the CLP.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/24/2127011.htm?section=justin
253
Artie B
Oh, sorry, so much Xmas cheer that I cannardly spell, let alone t^pe pro[[er!!
But yes, as you say, one ‘n’.
Season’s Greetings
Stuart@215
Regarding when Corangamite fell…
I left the Grovedale South booth, which achieved an 8+% swing, with a 20%+ increase in total votes from 2004, in time to catch the 8.00pm ABC news as I drove up the Torquay Rd to the ‘Your Rights at Work celebration at Geelong Trades Hall.
Lead item on the news bulletin was that Corangamite and Deakin had been won by Labor. (A memory that will remain crystal clear for a long long time!)
I know that postals subsequently clawed back some of the margin for the Libs but, as Stuart Macarthur said in the Geelong Advertiser on the Wednesday… “I conceeded on Saturday night and I have packed up my office…”
Don’t let anyone tell you that your poem is inaccurate. Corangamite FELL on the night of Sat 24 Nov. 2007! For only the second time since future P.M. Jim Scullin won the seat in 1910, on election night Corangamite was again a Labor seat.
Merry new year
Labor now holds one more seat than the Liberals in South Australia. It was last in this position after the 1990 election. Since 1993 the Liberals had held the ascendancy.
Labor now has a reasonable margin in six seats – Adelaide, Hindmarsh, Kingston, Makin, Port Adelaide and Makin. The Liberals are safe in Barker and Mayo but more vulnerable in Boothby, Grey and Sturt.
Labor, however, was stronger in SA after the 1969 election when it won eight of the then existing seats – Adelaide, Bonython, Grey, Hawker, Hindmarsh, Kingston, Port Adelaide and Sturt (with a 14% swing!). The Liberals were left with four safe seats – Angas, Barker, Boothby (still with a 7.5% buffer despite an 11.1% swing to Labor) and Wakefield.
Christmas greetings to all candidates who have taken part in the great democratic process this year. My particular thanks go to the people who carried the banner for Labor in South Australia. Here they are, seat by seat:
Barker: Karen Lock was the state champ with a swing of 10.4% swing. Admittedly that was from a very low base but Karen captured many votes that were supposedly heading from the Liberals to the Nationals. She as clearly the right fit for the electorate.
Grey: Karin Bolton won big in the Iron Triangle for an overall swing of 9.4%. Grey would have returned to Labor with that vote on the old boundaries (before Yorke Peninsula and parts of the Mid North were added). In a vast seat like this, maybe Labor could consider running two candidates – one from the industrial cities and a farmer like Ben Browne to appeal to the outlying areas.
Makin: Tony Zappia was rewarded second time around with a massive 8.6% swing against his moneybags opponent. Justice at last.
Wakefield: Nick Champion regained the Labor heartland with a 7.3% swing. He should be a member for many years.
Adelaide: Kate Ellis gained a 7.2% swing and a ministry after three years of hard work. All those street corner meetings have borne fruit.
Port Adelaide: Mark Butler rode the wave against Work Choices for a very enjoyable 6.8% surge into parliament.
Mayo: Mary Brewerton did really well with a 6.5% swing, but this seat needs a strong independent to challenge the Libs should Lord Downer step down.
Sturt: Mia Handshin achieved Labor’s best result here since Norm Foster’s 1969 win. Big swings in the northern suburbs for an overall result of 5.6% but the blueblood south stayed true to class.
Hindmarsh: Steve Georganas gave up smoking during the hair-raising 1974 election count which he won by 106 votes. No need to take it up again after a reasonably comfortable 5% swing this time.
Kingston: Amanda Rishworth survived a tough multi-candidate contest to regain what is perhaps the state’s most volatile seat with a 4.5% swing. For some reason some of the south-western suburbs in Kingston and Boothby did not swing that much to Labor.
Boothby: Nicole Cornes has sparked more commentary than anyone in memory. Why only a 2.4% swing? She did well in some middle-class booths, poorly in the affluent east and disappointingly in some of the tree-hugging and working class areas. But she still came closer in Boothby any Laborite since Tom Sheehy won it in 1946.
Congratulations also to Labor’s Senate winners, Don Farrell and Penny Wong (though they should have been in reverse order on the ballot paper).
Hi KR
I didn’t mean to insult intelligence of people with an IQ of more than 10. Most of my pets have that IQ and I would never insult them
Ferral Mayo’s point was that there was never a cause for war….I disagree my view is there was a case for war, and the CoW arsed it up and went to war on a false pretence.
BTY, I see no pitfall in arguing that the defence of others can be a just cause for war.
Are you going to argue we can never go to the defence of others in the future because we failed to do so in the past in “Sudan, Burma, Zimbabwe and a few Central Asian hell holes.. ” ??
KR.
I couldn’t resist, and I wanted to give you the opportunity to make that canardly joke. But its a case of people in glass houses. Most of the time I type like Melb City.
Cheers.
Megan.
Maybe Charles was referring to the Norman Conquest and/or the Roman occupation. Or perhaps to all those times the Scots invaded England and vice versa. Hardly within living memory, but …
In more recent times the Germans occupied the Channel Islands in WW2, but I don’t suppose that was what he had in mind.
As regards the US, the War of Independence might be regarded as a war against occupying forces. And in the War of 1812 the British burnt Washington to the ground. Then there was the US civil war, the purpose of which was to coerce 13 states back into the Union and which ended with the extended military occupation of those states - the so-called ‘reconstruction’ of the South. I understand that still rankles a bit in certain states.
Regarding Iraq, Admiral Lord Horatio summed it up beautifully, it was about the OIL.
Merry Christmas everyone, and thanks for the delightful banter over the past weeks. Good to note the rain that Kev brought is still falling!
Artie B,thanks. I was referring to the terror such as my family experienced during the Nazi occupation,meaning within living memory.Old Europe wasn’t gung-ho for another military adventure.
Mr Squiggle @ 247 - If you wish to use Saddam’s murderous abuse of his own people as a justification for a war that has resulted in the deaths of upwards of a million Iraqis and the displacement of another 4 million - and who knows how many more will suffer before peace returns - then you must be also willing to wage war with every other country ruled by such a despotic regimes, even those without oil. In which case you’ll be at war for a long, long time.
Given what has happened since the invasion, you may wish to ponder why a people who’ve been able to tie down the world’s most powerful military for 4 years couldn’t remove Saddam without our ‘help’. Or how people in the far more powerful communist regimes were able to depose their overlords with barely a shot being fired.
Mr Squiggle, war was my profession for 33 years, and the one great lesson we old warriors learn is that war is unpredictable. Not only are the immediate consequences unpredictable, but so are the long term ones.
WWI was a war fought for no greater reason than some of the protagonists were spoiling for a fight. They ended up getting much more than they bargained for. Not only the huge toll of the war itself, which most of the urgers thought would only last a few weeks, but it triggered off even greater suffering years later. The ‘Spanish’ flu that killed perhaps twice as many as died in WWI was incubated on the battlefields and spread by troops returning from that war, the Great Depression, and the even greater disaster that was WWII. If it weren’t for the 1914-18 war its likely that you would never have heard of a certain Viennese paper hanger. And without the spur of the Holocaust, Israel may not have become a nation, or at least not one in the form it became. The Zionists would likely to have had much less influence, for example.
Phil Robins @ 267 - Nicole Cornes is almost a certainty to win Boothby in 2010/11. She has apparently been offered a job as a union organizer and you know how well Union Bosses [BOO!] do!
272 MayoFeral- I’m just finishing a book “1914 1918″ about the history of WWI and you are completely right. An even better book about why regimes continually make mistakes is “The March of Folly” by Barbara Tuchman. Bush is just adding his name to the list she goes through of the Renaissance Popes, American Independence and the Vietnam War. He is just too stupid to have learnt anything and his henchmen are too evil to see anything beyond their bitter, twisted souls. Ruddock, Reith and Howard would have fitted in well.
Here’s to the blog to top all blogs. Without Poll Bludger, I would have chewed my fingers to the bone on election night, continued to feel isolated and alone in the lair of the trolls (Western Australia), and not understood much of what went on in psephologyland. Thank you all for your wit, humour, scintillating wisdom (mostly), bonhomie (mostly) (KR - note correct spelling) and expert comment. Of course, special thanks to Billbowe for making it all possible. Merry Christmas and an even better psephological new year.
272
MayoFeral
A great little potted history, and a salutary lesson in the unintended consequences of war. ‘Tis a great pity that the Washington neocons were better versed in Zionism than history, and that they were so gullible as to allow themselves to be mesmerized by that arch manipulator Ahmed Chalabi.
As for Mr Squiggy, his argument is one of convenience and has no standing in international law ie we decide your country is a ‘bad guy’ and we give ourselves the right to invade it for ‘your’ protection. (”We” being a unilaterlist superpower of your choice).
That argument has been used by every tyrant and genocidal maniac throughout human history, and it just does not withstand a moment’s scrutiny. (Oddly enough, the peculiar nexus of Southern Baptists or Rapture fundamentalists with Zionism has sired this monstrous mule called neoconservatism, and the only good thing one can say about it is that it cannot be viable in the biological sense of readily reproducing itself.)
In their inimitable way, the Yanks talked about ‘blowback’ with the CIA backing of bin Laden and his mujahadeen, but they just never seem to learn the real lesson: the exercise of military force, overt or covert, never just produces the desired effect. They keep on swallowing the spider to catch the fly and never seem able to disengage from the inevitable.
Season’s Greetings
274
neophyte
Noted, Neo.
And lots of ‘bon’ to you too, homme!
Now, off to don the Santa robes and do a bit of stacking under the tree (yes, it’s a live one!) and fill the stockings for the kids. Which is a bit hard after being plied with champagne and gauva juice by the better half!
So ho ho ho ho, and merry christmas, to youse all!
Phil
I think you may be right about Nicole, if she stands in 2010 then she should win, another 3 years of hard work will show that she is not as the media portrays her.
AEC has finalised results and now shows Howard suffered a bigger swing in his seat than the national swing, so will have to take back my comment agreeing that he was more popular than the party.
More info trickling out about the Howard years, Australia’s tertiary education funding declined 4% under Howard whilst in every other industrialised country it went up 49%, what a great waste of the boom years. The $125 million the libs spent on Work Choices advertising could have provided scolarships for 1,000 doctors for our struggling health system.
To all, a very happy festive season, whatever your beliefs and may the New Year bring the best. Congrats on your victory Bill.
We are looking at fine weather tommorrow after all the rain Kev brought, green every where, last few years brown and dry. Life is good.
Thanks for the blog William, hope Santa is good to you.
To all the bludgers of all persuasions have a Merry Christmas and thanks for all of your wit, knowledge, dedication, passion and insight. And a special thanks to William for running such a wonderful sight. It has given my brain a new lease of life.
Merry Christmas all, and may the New Year be filled with much happiness, joy and especially laughter.
If Santa doesn’t bring you all you hoped, well most of us have already gotten the bestest (sic) of presents in the last month or so, a, hopefully, more compassionate and wiser government and blessed, blessed rain - even if it means having to mow the #@#$% lawn again [grumble] ;(
K. Removals @248: “Only the Yanks can do such bland things to the English language and not realise how plastic it sounds.”
I always look forward to your posts, which are invariably interesting and insightful, but could you please give the Yanks a pass with this stereotype stuff. I know a great many Americans and have often visited the USA, and I can assure you that they would be no more inclined to do bland things to the English language without being able to realise the degree of plasticity involved than we would be here. Of course, you could be referring to the more than 30 million Americans for whom Spanish is their first language.
Before we bask in the warm glow of blanket criticisms of the Yanks, let’s try not lose sight of the fact that a majority of them voted for Al Gore in 2000 (just as we voted for Kim Beazley in 1998)!
Here’s hoping you all have a very merry Christmas and a happy new year.
This last year has seen the longest political campaign that I can ever remember and with it’s various twists and turns, I think the year definitely belongs to Kevin 07 and his team for an extraordinary effort.
I believe the Australian people have made a wise decision and will be glad that the country can get it’s sullied reputation back and move on to a more prosperous and certain future with a very capable captain at the helm.
Many thanks to all the many and varied contributors that have graced this site over the last year. Some I have found informative and enlightening and others frustratingly negative and unbending in their support of the unsupportable. You have certainly made life interesting especially towards the defining date of 24th November.
Thank you William for patiently allowing my occasional contributions throughout the year and I look forward to catching up with everyone during this coming year.
Cheers, Scorpio.
Sorry Adam and prosterity, “its”!
Christmas is a couple of hours away, the Carols from the Music Bowl in Melbourne are playing in the background, I’m about to don my Santa hat and fill the stockings, and most importantly of all I am more optimistic about our country’s future than I have been for a very long time.
It has been a real joy to share the journey with you my fellow bloggers and I look forward to joining you on the road though 2008.
In the midst of our merriment, pause and think of the battles that still rage in Afghanistan, Iraq, the middle-east - and in our own region, the people of Fiji still endure the theft of their democracy by a tyrant with a gun. We still have so much to do…but for now, here in Australia, the future looks good.
A merry Christmas to all - and a joyous New Year!
Pollbludger kept me sane in the scary days leading up to November 24, when I alternated between fear of ‘the narrowing’ and a desperate hope for change. Every time those MSM prophets predicted doom for Labor I found encouragement in the well-informed and wise words of pollbludgers. I even had (quite) a few laughs to keep me on an even keel. Thanks to William for a site which gave a voice to local knowledge and many fields of expertise. All the best for Christmas and a 2008 to look forward to!
Merry Christmas everyone,
even the Glens…
Thanks for all the fun and frivolity
and may the turn-around continue.
Thanks William for a fantastic site, and let all who sail on it have a happy 2008.
Joy to the World…we sure as hell need it.
Jenxx
Season’s Greetings. All.
I have returned and sat on the step outside, having a welcome glass of wine.
The gifts wrapped, have been delivered to the house of my sister. Not too consumeristic, in the main. Best of mine. Gained recent access to some great photos (an amazing little story in itself) of the Brighton Jetty SA, in its stormy destruction. 95? For a few bob, bought some attractive frames, for the copies.
One more item to do. My friend bought a turkey to cook and take to that family gathering. Unfortunately, overlooked the fact that the oven did not work. Well, it works, but the seals are buggered. Pointing this out, I said I will do it, at my house. So shortly to make the stuffing and get up at dawn, to do the thing. In fact, my oven is a bit of a worry, seals and all. Reckon will work out okay, though. Apologies to vegetarians, but I will enjoy the aroma of Christmas, in my home, as I always have to go elsewhere for lunch.
William, Merry Christmas to you. May you find many gifts under your tree. Have fun and a great day!
Thank you so much for all your work, dedication and the privilege of allowing me to participate, in such breakneck , breathless harmony, sometimes conflict, with all here, in our democracy, the greatest miracle, the spills, the thrills, the chills, the hills. And finally! The gods are good!
Thanks all you bloggers. Too numerous to name, might miss some loved ones.
The moon is sheltering behind the largest and remaining gum trees in my street, the leaves are fracturing it into starry lights.
All is calm. All is bright.
Have a lovely Christmas.
And Goodnight.
280
JJJ
Ooops, sorry there JJJ, a flippant off the cuff remark, you know what I mean? Some kind of ‘political correctness’ and erasing the Yuletide in that “happy holiday” expression, that made me comment. Funny really, because I’m a lifelong member of the atheist club, and don’t mind some ridicule of the holy stuff.
Season’s greetings, and now the chores are done, as Samuel Pepys would say, so to bed.
Here in WA it’s still Christmas eve.
May I take the opportunity to wish all who take pleasure and add to their knowledge from this site, those I’ve criticised and those I’ve applauded, a safe and happy festive season and the hope that you may achieve everything you desire for yourselves in the new year.
For the supporters of Labor, the Greens and the Coalition, to steal a phrase uttered by a much wiser man than I, do as the lawyers do, strive mightily for your cause, but eat and drink as friends.
Happy Christmas all - a special thanks to William for the site, to the Kevin07 team with nothing but appreciation for turning the tide; and to Kevin and the team .. a special note of appreciation for a brilliant 30 days of governance and the launch of so many new horizons.
To all fellow bludgers. I’ve been away since our victory a month ago & that was an early present that I savor with justifiable pride! To all of you I wish all a great Xmas day & a safe and prosperous ‘08. I hope to share my thoughts with matters come the next Brizy council elections & any bye-election that may come our way. Bring it on.
!!
Merry Xmas pollbludgers (do maltesers constitute a nourishing breakfast?)
guys,
: his closeness / warmness to China.
I’m already feeling uneasy with Rudd already
If he does not keep a safe / distinctive distance from the Communist China, I swear I’ll go for a viable alternative next election.
If the Chinamen helped Rudd winning Bennelong, they are also his curse and reason why he’ll lose government.
frank frederic,
Looks like Santa must have forgotten something in your Christmas stocking this morning, frank.
I would much rather see PM Rudd inside the China tent where he can have some influence on Sino/Aust relations than outside with Bush making threatening gestures towards China over Tiawan.
Mate, China has 1.2 billion people. We have 21 million. Slightly outnumbered, I would say and best to be on good terms with them. They sell us lots of reasonable quality, cheap goods and buy lots and lots of our minerals and gas.
A win/win all round, I would think. Go Ruddy, you’re doing great so far.
Merry Christmas, is it wrong to be drunk @ 10.30 am
barbara @ 291 - Yes. Malt comes from barley so its may have some fibre, and lets face it, they make beer from it so it has to be good. And chocolate’s main ingredient, cacao, is one of the richest sources of cancer fighting antioxidants, much higher than fruits and vegetables - http://www.livingearth.com.au/Raw_Cacao.html.
But I would still try to eat something green, or at least yellow. Do you have any jellybeans or smarties?
I thought I’d drop in and say Merry Xmas to William and the Bludgers before heading off for a serious day’s over-eating. Thanks for an excellent service this year, William. It’s been a great year, culminating in the Great Victory of 24 November, and capped off by lots of Kevin-sent rain. Next year will be even better since it will be G W Bush’s last year, and I do love US elections. Go Hillary!
Merry, merry x-mas and one big politically incorrect “HO HO HO!”. A great day awaits as I head off to the in-laws for a feast, a beer and a blue.
Now, can someone tell me, who will be the next Liberal state/federal premier/prime minister?? And in what year?
294 Santas Mistress, only if you don’t share the good stuff with us
2008 is almost here, the ‘Year of Hillary’, when the whole world awakens from a bad dream.
Fellow Bludgers
Thanks for all the entertainment throughout the campaign and a great big thankyou to all those who provided me with enough information, and provided the confidence to bet on Saint Maxine (the first time I’ve ever bet on anything).
It propped up my relatively income-lean year.
It feels like the new government has achieved more already than the previous did in at least their last term, maybe more. I reckon there’s a good chance that the majority of the election platform will have been achieved, or be underway, in the first 12 months.
I’m at my sister’s place in QLD, in Kev’s electorate. I’ve been told to take my K07 t-shirt off for lunch….haha. High income really does isolate you from social concern I reckon. Apparently the poor are just lazy around here…
A massive thankyou to William for providing the forum for discussion.
Merry christmas to all, even Liberals.
I wish a new year full of honest, competent, government to all, should be quite a change. Hopefully that will mean a Democrat Prsident in the US. For ex-Liberal apparachiks, well I hope you get new jobs not involved in public policy making. Personally, I got what I wanted on 24 November, so anything else after that is a bonus
Diogenes, I totaly agree on Iraq, and your mentioning one of my favourite books - Brbara Touchman’s “The March to Folly”. Sadly with the author’s death a new edition with chapter’s on Buch, Iraq and the Australian Liberals won’t be possible.
For those interested in Iraq and the middle east generally, may I suggest Juan Cole’s excellent blog “Informed Comment” at:
http://www.juancole.com/
Cole is an American history professor who has lived in, studied and taught in the middle east as well as the US. He posts on news in Iraq almost every day. The number of “small” bombings and urders he posts that don’t even make the news here is frightening.
Merry Christmas to all (ducked out from all the chaos of lunch for my usual spot of sanity. Who needs valium when we have PB!)
Thanks so much ,William…you have been a most patient and indulgent host.
To the rest, so enjoy your contributions…reassuring to know others who are about more than just retail,real estate and sharemarkets!
What’s all this about Hillary? As much as I’d welcome just about any Democrat candidate, if the mood is on for real change, then the nomination must go to Obama. Then we’ll see the business of politics dropped on its head and changed forever. Noble ideals wil once again be valued rather than pilloried. That’s what I want for Christmas 08.
Merry Christmas all.
OMG.. quick check, is anybody experiencing a partner or relative who is totally pissed and being horrible right now…
God help me I am.
ps: and no. its not Mr Claus
#292 - I suggest that you have a look at the number of things in your household that is “Made in China”. Things that make your and your family life pleasurable and enjoyable. Things that have been produced at a very affordable price due the blood, sweat and tears of the Chinese people.
I also suggest that you look at your super and see how many companies your super fund invested in that rely heavily with the China trade.
So don’t bite the hand that feed you. Other than that I wish you happy and safe Xmas and NY.
A very merry (not pissed) Christmas to all PB’s! Also second all the plaudits already mentioned for William and this blessed site.
Strongly recommend everybody buy a copy of Kudelka’s 101 Uses for a John Howard. Nearly burst my stitches reading his take on Ruddock (after a quadruple by-pass operation a couple of days after the election - had to follow events in snatches via the totally unrelaible MSM). Kudelka captures the mood and feel of the Howard era to a T. A vivid memento of what we’ve been through for 11+ dark years. Lest we forget.
Cheers.
Merry xmas to all labor people not libs you suck
Long live kevin 07
Now, now James…tis the season to be gracious to all our countrymen. Even the Libs deserve a merry Christmas as they enjoy the benefits of good, just and all-wise ALP Governance . For this is the gift of St Kevin of Griffith to us all.
no ferny Grover
sorry i just hates the libs much then anything in the world
yes long live st kevin of griffith
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
101 uses for a JH?? I doubt even Hyacinth could come up with more than one - and no, <YUK!!> I’m not referring to that! Tsk Tsk
The best that I can think of is him doing his royalist bit for Princess Di’s favourite charity and volunteering to roll around old minefields
sorry guys
sorry i just hates the libs more then anything in the world
yes long live st kevin of griffith
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
James, in the post 24/11 world….we already ARE back!
yes we ARE BACK
Sorry guys
A merry and safe Christmas to all from Hunan, China.
I dont contribute much to this fine forum but I try to read it most days, thanks William and the other contributers at PB.
Like most others on this forum I was thrilled by the impressive Labor election win, I feel proud to be an Aussie again.
The AEC knocked off with many also having taken Monday off work. The declared Victoria (As expected by all expect the Greens it was not a close race - even with the potential added Surplus Transfer bonus that invented the Greens vote). There is concern that the AEC might go down the path of the VEC and may be forced into having to publish the BTL preference results, To date the AEC has done a far better job in conducting this action. There were issues but they were minor compared to the VEC’s poor effort. Overall the AEC has been open and transparent in the conduct of the election. Lets hope they do not take a backward step by refusing to publish the detailed results and BTL data file. Victoria’s Senate count sheet is still not on line. In answer to a previous question. I do not support the destruction of our environment by arranging excessive Overseas Con Fests that provide an excuse for many to just holiday in the Sun or in the Greens case attend executive meeting of enviro con fest in Africa all paid for by the public purse when an internet connection would suffice the CO2 for the plane trip alone is equal to Australia’s average yearly consumption per person) As I am not a christian (religion is the main cause/basis of wars and conflict) and christmas is not celebrated until January 6/7 so I extend season greeting to you all. It is a joyful season indeed. Thank god the Greens did not unfairly win a seat - had they preselected David Risstrom then they may have had a chance. Either way electing Feeney and a Labor Government is the best “christmas Gift” anyone could give.
“John Who?” said Lefty E, waving his crutch.
Seasonal sentiments, and good will to all bludgers.
260
Megan Says:
December 24th, 2007 at 6:16 pm
It’s a bit sad really. Poor old england has been ruled by Europe for a very long time. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Conquest
Further reading the doomsday book:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domesday_Book
And as for Australia and the USA, i”m pretty sure the natives don’t share your point of view.
Something i think i am noticing or is it my inability to observe.
It seems like Kev07 wanders around everywhere like church today and on other TV shots without about 10 minders or are they making themselves inconspicuous.
That other bloke always seemed to have the local fotty team out with him.
Perhaps it is my imagination.
“footy” as well
Actually Megan, if you take a long time point of view, you could say Normandy invaded england then a few hundred years later the USA and then a couple of hundred more, Australia, and now a couple of hundred years later they are going after the middle east.
I know you have to look at history with a very narrow point of view and over a long time to see it that way; but I guess there are a few in the middle east that take that point of view.
Normans to rule the world, given us a few thousand years; now thats long term planning.
Normans? Humbug. It was us Swedes!
We, and/or our close kin, gave humanity ten of its greatest ‘gifts’
The Vikings,
The Normans,
The Poms,
The Russians, and eventually the Soviet Union,
The Mafia - via the Norman conquest of Sicily,
The British Empire,
Test cricket and football - via the Poms,
Volvo drivers,
Ikea.
Now that’s planning!
And I hope you bludgers are suitably grateful!
301 Socrates- I’m delighted you like Tuchman as well, although not surprised as Diogenes was often referred to as the “mad Socrates”. I was put on to the book by Norman Swan in a lecture on whistle-blowing at the Adelaide Festival of Ideas. It was a fantastic symposium and Guy Pearse, Marian Wilkinson and Julian Morrow also spoke. It can be downloaded by podcast below and I highly recommend it for anyone interested in whistle-blowing.
http://www.adelaidefestivalofideas.com.au/resources/33_lifting_the_lid.mp3
PS Ferny- Agree Hillary is Bush-Lite and Obama is my choice as well (but not convinced he’ll get in)
USA is not yet ready for a black Prez. The lunatic right will never allow it. Go and watch an old Warren Beatty movie called: The Parallax View. BTW: I am not even sure it is ready for a woman Prez.
At the end of a long and boozy day (with disastors re: seafood, forgotten presents, difficult guests etc) it is a blessed relief to sit down at the computer for a quiet moment and find that so many of you are still here.
Enjoy the rest of the year.
And I have 2 words to say to Heavenly Kevin (who to date is doing a sensatonal job I must admit),…
Pulp
Mill.
Fix it.
that should read “sensational job”…
Our hard working Conservative politicians in Queeensland are too busy doing nothing in parliament to attend committee meetings. Don’t the opposition get issued with computers with diary software attached? Or are they just incapable of planning the day.
The debating skills on display from the opposition show prefer to turn up and waffle with no preparation and either can’t understand or haven’t bothered to read about issues they are listed to debate.
I’d have thought that with the dire state they are in, Seeney might have ordered a rethinking of the work ethic and a working out of what is important ahead of making excuses for their non attendance at set piece meetings.
But then again, it is Queensland and the opposition lives in a world of its own up here.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22970283-952,00.html
321 MayoFeral, to the best of my knowledge the Normans WERE originally Vikings, and the Vikings originated more from Denmark and Norway than Sweden. No self-respecting Viking would ever have driven a Volvo for god’s sake hahahaha.
297 Deano ‘Now, can someone tell me, who will be the next Liberal state/federal premier/prime minister?? And in what year?’
No Deano, the next Lib PM hasn’t yet been born, but I forecast that when he is the sun will go blood red and the skies will be rent asunder, he will be named Damien and he will have the mark of the beast upon him.
Basil, there is still a nest of Liberals to be dealt with at the Brisbane City Hall elections. Voting on March 15, 2008 should see the end of this weird era of politics. The last standing descendant of a Howard Government Minister is a strange anomaly.
Steve, do you know who is currently the second-highest ranking Lib elected official in Oz (after Bris City Council)?
After March 15 the will the baton be handed on?
No that is it for leadership roles in all of Australia, but even in Brisbane City council the Liberals are a minority rump of ineffective conservative time servers just waiting for March 15 to arrive so they can join their Federal colleagues at Centrelink, which Gridlock’s mother helped establish, I believe.
Their only sense of power comes from having Gridlock Campbell as Lord Mayor. I think after that there are a few University unions run by young Libs such as Queensland University but nothing of any consequence.
327 Basil Fawlty - Its probably true that the Swedish arm of the Viking hoards let their Norwegian and Danish
lackeyskin do much of the heavy lifting in the west and hog the limelight, but we ended up with the loot:Mayo, they were probably spilled from the pockets of the Danes when they were enjoying the hospitality of your Swedish womenvolk. And you still haven’t addressed how the hell could any Viking have stooped so low as to invent Volvos and Ikea
The Greens have taken the vic senate results on the chin. It was a dissappointing return for a very good primary vote of over 10%. That’s just the way it goes in the senate sometimes. What didn’t help was Labour scoring a near perfect 3 quotas leaving no leftovers for us after their 3 senators were elected.
In 04 there were 4 conservatives elected whilst this year they just got over the line for 3. The “unused” portion vote was all ours.
What is heartening is the increase in our vote and, hopefully, we will be able to one day win senate seats outright (just like Bob does). Untill then we will just keep plugging away, leading the debate on climate change, human rights and democracy. You will see many of our current policies pop up with the major parties a few years down the track.
Already we have seen the Labour’s take on the environment. It’ better than Howards, how could it not be. But like the state governments, the perception of being good for the environment is far more important than being good for the environment. Just like trying to get tickets for a Midnight Oil’s concert at Festival Hall back in 1987 - it’s a sell out. Peter wants to dredge the bay and pulp the Tamar. Can I get a refund on my old 10, 9, 8,……?
It’s been a good year, and very nearly an excellent year.
Rudd looks rather scandinavian and I can picture him driving a Volvo. There he was on Nov 24th, his stance was Beowulf-like with ripped abs and steeled resolve. “I will kill your Monster”. The rest is history
I reckon Ponting will elect to bat if he wins the toss and Hogg should be given a cap, as we need the variety and I predict good turn as the track wears.
BF @ 333 - Volvos, especially ones driven by blokes wearing hats - 20/21st century versions of the Viking helmet - have probably struck fear into the hearts of more people in a single year than the longboats ever did!
BTW-the longships’ long, narrow, shallow draft hull was probably designed more for rowing long distances down Russian rivers than sailing the North Sea. The fact Vikings regular rowed all the way to Baghdad proves how well suited they were.
As for Ikea, I’m sure the Swedes do a lot of ROTFLTAO whenever they think about the antics of those trying to assemble the stuff.
Ikeans are sadists.
Speaking of US politics, has anyone here seen those street polls in the US where people respond that they think that Obama is a Muslim terrorist? SCARY.
Somehow I don’t like the guy’s chances, as good as it would be to see a Black American get up, I think the redneck factor is still too strong. While Hillary has to overcome similar prejudice the Clinton years are now looked back on with nostalgia by many, and after the village idiot I do not think the Republicans have a hope in hell.
Dear Senate Watch/Melb PC or whoever you are
You appear to have an unreasonable grudge re the Greens and I can only think it relates to David Risstrom not being preselected (noting your last comment) by the Greens. I don’t quite understand what your issue with Dr Richard di Natale is - maybe you should explain that. With respect to the Global Greens Conference in Brazil (which is what I think you are referring to, and which takes place once every 6 years) perhaps you should also consider that the ALP sends delegates to international conferences, “indulges” in exchanges with US Democrats & UK Labor, has a handy “democracy fund” (can’t remember the exact name) that it and the Libs set up to exchange people with SE Asian/Oceanian parties to educate them in “Australian democracy”, so please, spare us this carry-on. Maybe its escaped your attention but global discussions about the fate of the planet sometimes really do need face-to-face meetings, side meetings, committee’s and all the other paraphenalia of conferences. Maybe we can agree we just don’t need lots of them?
BTW winning Vic would have been very nice for the Greens, especially given we polled over 10% there, but them’s the breaks (yes, we remember getting Kerry elected with 4.15%, so goes the roll of the preference dice). And we didn’t “invent” the Green vote of 10% - the voting public created it as reality.
As for the commentary regarding 1v1v - I think you need first to define what you mean by “democracy” and how voting actually fits into that definition. Glib assertions about democracy being all about voting, 1v1v, plurality etc really diminishes any broader understanding of social relations. “Democracy” can be just a mechanism, but it can also describe those relations - I think you are taking a too mechanistic view of democracy, limiting it solely to a voting theory.
Re the Brisbane City Council election on March 15. Do they realise that’s the Ides of March??
I would feel more confident about the ALPs chances in the Brisbane City Council if they had not parachuted in someone from outside the party. Is Labor so bereft of talent in Brisbane? With even some rusted on Labor voters fairly luke-warm about Rowell, my gut feeling is that the voters will stick with Campbell
Ferny Grover
I will be watching the progress of Rowell over the next decade, as he has a lot of support and respect from federal Labor.
I believe he is been groomed for bigger things and he might just surprise in the election and it wouldn’t hurt if he got some experience before he steps up.
Scaper, I like your optimism but he’ll need to talk about more than cricket if he wants to prove he can run the biggest municipal council in the world. It’s been a very muted campaign up till now and it will take more than a few weeks to get him known and to win public confidence.
Stewart J
you are wasting keyboard taps trying to reason with Melbcity/senate watch. His irrational hatred of the Greens and his conspiracy theories re: Richard’s preselection etc are obviously based on personal issues for him and have no relevance to the political discourse whatsoever.
Nice try though.
And as disappointing the Vic senate result is the fact remains that over a million Australians voted for the Greens in 2007.
We are having an undeniable impact on the decisions being made re climate change, sustainable energy development, indigeneous affairs and industrial relation, to name a few key areas.
The ranting of the Anti-Greens is becoming more ridiculous by the day.
Ferny Grover
I believe that Greg is an intelligent person who has studied law and public administration.
I agree that there has been no campaign as such, but the new year will see a build up of his profile to the public.
Can’t wait for the action to start as I’m addicted now to the process…oh well.
FG. You have a valid point with respect to Rowell candidature. Its early days still but I’m sure when the campaign cranks up then the candidates will have their ‘15min’ of fame to spoil us rate payers.
I also beleive that our council election will have national spotlight as to see if the last standing Liberal in power of any significance can survive as Labor will try to breach the walls of the BCC. Its going to be intense.
PS - was Jim Soorley an ex priest of no standing in the ALP when he stole the show from Sally-Anne?
Yes AG, Soorley was an ex-priest. He had a history of social justice campaigning but his links to Labor were thin prior to his preselection
What do people think John and Janette did this Christmas??
Who cares!
Cuddling the grandkids and dwelling on what a difference a year makes
Who??
You know - George and Laura’s best friends.
meant to say only friends.
Re: the anti-Greens stuff, yes, I’m reminded of Gandhi’s line “first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you - and then you win”.
The Greens have resoundingly dispatched all other third forces - they are now it. They have formal party status in the upper house, loads of new resources as a result, they safely outpoll the Nats, and are already the opposition in HOR seats like Melbourne.
If Australia had proportional representation, they’d hold the BOP in most states.
They still need to: get smarter on upper house prefs; run more professional campaigns; push strategic GRN 1 ALP 2 voting harder.
Agreed Lefty -
we need to improve our campaigning, and I have no doubt that wll happen with the increase in resources and profile of the party.
The Greens need to do a lot more with Andrew Wilkie. If you had put him up for the Victorian Senate he would have given you the mainstream profile and credibility which Peter Singer or Richard Di Natale never could. He may have been worth that extra couple of votes you needed.
Were you keeping Wilkie in his place by making him Bob’s number two?
Turning Worm-
the lead senate candidates are chosen in a ballot by the membership.
At the moment many people are more scared of the Greens than of Labor. There was a lot of qualitative polling during the year which seemed to show this. The Greens were under attack from FF and other christian/conservative groups - gay rights/drugs/needle exchanges/peace… - the Greens would bring Australia to its knees. Or so the story went.
The Greens have been sidelined for years now. I expect the newly gained opportunity to amend and pass Labor bills will provide a platform for them to be seen as responsibly progressive and above all safe. The next three years (if no DD) should be seminal. Brown has the smarts to see this and it should be the making of the Greens as a permanent influence in Australian federal politics.
But a too conservative Rudd would make things interesting.
Bryce -
I find it interesting that there is so much focus on the Greens, particularly during such a clear Labor/Liberal elction period.
We are clearly gaining traction.
Happy Christmas and a successful new year to all Poll Bludgers. To William, I hope that you got at least as much benefit from this site as it provided me and the other users during the past year. You are on my shortlist for Australian of the Year.
Topically, I received a visit from a family group of young Iraqi refugees this morning. They were handing out home made Turkish delight to residents of the street, as Christmas gifts. Very nice!
I look forward to hearing from you all in the New Year. In the meantime, if you wish to be outraged read the excellent report in the weekend Financial Review by Pamela Williams re the Howard decline and fall. The hubris and sense of entitlement of Jannette Howard is astonishing.
The other interesting thing about the Brisbane City Council election is that it will be the first election run by New ALP State Secretary, Anthony Chisolm following Milton Dick’s decision to run in the safe ward of Richlands. Gridlock Campbell has given Chisolm ample material for election ads against Gridlock with his broken promises on rates, fixing gridlock, etc
Jen @ 358
That sounded like an awfully political response. Are you saying that Andrew Wilkie decided of his own accord to nominate himself as a Senate candidate for the Greens in the same State as the leader of the party? Perhaps I have overestimated Mr Wilkie in that case.
For a rough view of the story of Gridlock Campbell so far..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Newman
Jen
It is quite clear that the Greens are gaining traction, but they are restricting their cred as an option because of their stoicism on certain issues relating to preservation in unison with the need to develop in a responsible manner.
There has to be a bit of give and take and this needs to be expressed I believe.
What you say is quite true, Bryce - but Im not convinced it matters a fig. FF have basically no public support, anywhere. The fact that the VIC ALP cocked up bigtime in 04 and randomly generated Mr 1.7% Fielding doesnt mean the Happys have much to Clappy about.
In sum, who cares if some politically irrelevant God botherers hate the Greens!
TurningWorm -
that was not a political response, rather an explanation for how the lead candidates get selected- ie Richard won preselection in Victoria via a ballot. To my knowledge Wilkie did not stand anywhere other than Tasmania, where clearly Bob was going to be the lead candidate.
There was a hope that Tassie could get 2 senators up, so there was a genuine hope (albeit an admitted long shot) that Andrew Wilkie could get elected there.
scaper …
I’m not sure what you mean re: “certain issues relating to preservation…”. If this is the standard argument that the Greens are anti-development, then it iis a generalisation, and incorrect.
Our polices are clear about the need for sustainable development in all aspects of industry. Perhaps you could be more concise so that I can try and give a clearer response.
Lefty E-
true enough. This selection proved the Fundies are back in their box pretty much everywhere.
i suspect that when Bush gets the Republicans the flogging they deserve the influence of the Christian Right will disappear altogether.
ooops -I meant “this Election”!!
Lefty, I wasn’t saying FF was a threat or had any support. Next election (if not a DD) they’ll be gone - and good riddance.
I was just remarking on the barrage of frighteners the likes of FF (and others) heaped on the Greens before the election. This got lots of publicity and did resonate against the Greens. But will not work as well next election. The Greens will be an active player in the political process over the next three years and, like Labor next time, will have runs on the board and be much more robust in deflecting any scare campaigns.
My much overdue election wrap-up mainly focusing on Tasmanian seats is now up at http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/weblog/article/the-election-that-was/ . A couple of Pollbludger posters have been acknowledged!
Jen
I know for fact that the Greens do support development, but I believe that they need to be more flexible on certain matters relating to disturbance and the impact on habitat for the long term future of such.
If we are to move forward to meet the challenges, we need not only at preservation but enhancement also.
This is where they are somewhat lacking.
I would also like to see the party expand their platform to further enhance their support at the voting booths.
Hi Scaper @ 336,
Well your predictions were right.
Have just returned from a fantastic day at “The G”.
There is not much better than a perfect Melbourne day (25 degrees, light breeze, cloudless sky) spent at the cricket.
The track was bit slow so the ball did not come on to the bat. This meant that the batsmen had to spend a fair bit of time acclimatising. Notwithstanding the Indian quicks bowled accurately and with good heart. At least one of the early LBW appeals looked very, very close.
Anil Kumble bowled magnificently and troubled all the Aussies. The guy has been here before without much success. Obviously, had a few new tricks including the “wrong un” good enough to do over Jacques and Hussey.
Hayden played solidly for his century (sixth in seven years apparently). However, was not a classic innings. The outfield was slow probably an outcome of all the rain we had over the weekend but certainly dried out toward the end of the day.
With just over four overs to go Australia 8/306. I thought a total of about 320 would make the day and match pretty even. Enter Clark at No 11 who batted inspirationally. Looked like Steve Waugh with his square drives.
9/337. Goota say leaning to Australia’s day. The wicket will get quicker and the bounce will be lower and more variable as the match progresses. Runs on the board equals money in the bank.
I hope the Indians can bat well tomorrow and make it a classic. Hoggy gets his chance tomorrow to prove whether he is up to the class.
Season’s greetings to all!
In reference to an earlier post re Vikings:
I have a soft spot for Vikings: they were good with wood. Ikeans are, to me a barbaric race, who use small screws to ill-effect. Jack-hammers are the weapons of choice, or showers of river pebbles dropped from considerable height.
The Australian Prime Minister, Mr Kevin Rudd, is on the cricket tomorrow ….
I agree with all that Bryce. Must have missed some dabs of nuance in your original post.
Which is hardly so very surprising, since Im 3 sheets to the wind.
Happy box day, p-bludgers!
Bludge on!!
The sad, sad Haneef saga in today’s Age. (http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/a-contemptible-episode-closes/2007/12/25/1198345005239.html)
Hear hear to its final sentence- ‘The final act should be a judicial inquiry’.
scaper… still not sure what you are referring to.
Jen
Apologies for being cagey but it is best.
I would like to say that the Greens figure highly in my agenda and my criticism is of a constructive overview.
They can emerge to fill the void…with a bit of tinkering and refined PR.
scaper..
your “cageyness” intrigues me. (Who do you think is listening??)
neophyte:
I hope the final act will be criminal trials and appropriate sentencing for those that perpetrated such an injustice, which is only a small sample of the remorselessly cruel treatment the former government inflicted on so many innocent and needy people.
Agreed that it would be a good thing, Jen 378, but is it possible?
I can’t make out if this story is for real or the Murdoch press making mischief.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22974795-601,00.html
Greeensborough Growler, lets just hope we get no LBW off the helmet for Tendulkar this time, or was that Lara a few years back.
Steve 380
probably mischief-BUT if i was a senior public servant i would be really scared of the white room
apparently Rudd (and others) have used this to good effect in the past
simply put,the person in question is given an offfice which contains a desk and chair a writing pad and some pens/pencils,nothing else-then told to produce some report into a totally obscure area of their responsibilty.
takes about two weeks max
I like this one,
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/respect_where_its_due
Phew, aren’t we lucky to have had Gerard Henderson’s level-headed and objective social and political commentary during the past year.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/a-year-of-fear-and-loathing-and-failed-prophets/2007/12/26/1198345078217.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
However he let his guard down in “September” when he revealed he could “see” into JH’s mind to know that he did not pray for a terrorist attack.
What a prat.
Philmour
“While most Australians were sleeping-in and trying to recover from the gluttony of Christmas Day, a certain elected official was serving breakfast to the homeless in Canberra. It wasn’t your typical political event _ there was no media and no roadshow, just a few security personnel and the Prime Minister. He handed out the Boxing Day fare of eggs and bacon, a rare treat, and listened intently and with respect while guests and volunteers told him their life stories and gave their commentary on how he was doing so far.”
Rudd also gave all staff at the lodge the day off on Xmas, he and Therese did their own Xmas lunch and cleanup like most families.
Philmour and Arbie Jay- Mike Rann visited a burns victim in hospital a few years ago whose family had died in the bushfires without any media. It’s hard enough for doctors and nurses to deal with that but I was really impressed Rann would go through such a gruelling experience to console a distraught man. Made me think twice about him and politicians in general.
Morning all -
I’m sitting at work browsing through the MSM, and then checking out PB. The story about Rudd helping the homeless and doing the family Christmas thing is heartening indeed, particularly in contrast with the Haneef finding as a reminder of the mean-spiritedness and paranoia our last government was infecting us with.
I am still surprised at how quickly their influnce is becoming confined to the dustbin of history.
Gosh! I have never seen so much interest in a Brisbane City Council election!
And go away SenateWatch / MelbCity, with your irrational rantings.
And why do you presume Risstrom would have won this time around when di Natale actually increased the vote (from that achieved by Risstrom in ‘04)?
The Organ of the Government in Exile (formerly GG) can’t help itself. In a spiteful piece on NGOs and their use of donated funds in Indonesia and Thailand, Ean Higgins cites a ’survey by The Australian’ and ‘critics’ such as Don D’Cruz of the Institute of Public Affairs to lambast World Vision, Caritas and Oxfam for their left-wing, politically correct campaigns to improve the status of women and encourage workers to defend their rights. Anyone who works in NGOs in developing countries knows that funding focusing on opportunities for women results in excellent outcomes.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22974796-2702,00.html
apres -
you just took the gloss of my sense of well-being. Ean Higgins is a total prat. And when is the Instiute of Public Affairs going to be called by it’s correct name: the Institue of Rightwing Neoconservative Bastards.
That would be Institute…
Relax Jen, the spelling police are still on holidays. The main thing is that you spelt neoconservative bastards correctly.
Thanks apres,
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22974796-2702,00.html
Interesting how this enormous tragedy can be used to attack the left.
Altruists from all over the world have rallied to assist in the rebuilding - but what do we hear from the conservatives? An attempt to denigrate those on the ground and concoct a political argument to serve up to the “mums and dads” in Australia proof that aid agencies are misusing their donations and are no more than socialist fronts.
The very charter of the Institute of Public Affairs is to be an organ for political education. And this report is consistent with their aims! What hypocrites.
Hands up all those who thought that Pauline Hanson ran for office just to collect the $200,000 plus dollars! Not true according to her but she did promise to be back again now that the money has been banked after another successf