Welcome to episode two in the slower-than-anticipated Post-Match Report round-up of federal electorate results, which today brings us to South Australia.
Of the three seats that were highly marginal for the Liberals going into the election, Kingston emerged with the smallest Labor margin following a relatively subdued 4.5 per cent swing. The swing was reasonably consistent throughout the electorate, though slightly heavier at Morphett Vale and the Liberal-voting suburbs to the north than along the coast. Makin produced the third biggest swing in the state, perhaps boosted by the retirement of sitting member Trish Draper, with the 0.9 per cent margin obliterated by an evenly distributed 8.6 per cent shift to Labor. In Wakefield the swing was 7.3 per cent, which was markedly lower than in the small towns in the north of the electorate than in the low-income outer Adelaide centres of Elizabeth and Salisbury.
Only at four of Boothby’s 42 booths did Nicole Cornes achieve a swing greater than the 5.4 per cent needed to win the seat. All were in strong Liberal areas, including the coast around Brighton and the Adelaide Hills suburb of Flagstaff Hill. Labor’s worst results came in the area closest to the city, with swings to the Liberals recorded at Mitcham, Myrtle Bank, Kingswood and Hawthorn West. The Greens’ vote picked up 3.1 per cent, perhaps benefiting from embarrassment surrounding Cornes’s performance. In Sturt the Labor candidate Mia Handshin picked up a close-but-no-cigar swing of 5.9 per cent that was concentrated in the heavily mortgaged northern end of the electorate, with swings near or above 10 per cent at Dernancourt, Gilles Plains and Windsor Gardens. Pyne now sits on an uncomfortable margin of 0.9 per cent.
The 7.2 per cent swing in Adelaide was slightly higher than the state average of 6.8 per cent, and was driven in remarkable degree by the stronger Labor areas to the north and north-west of the city. The swings in many of these booths cracked double figures, whereas the strong Liberal booths to the north-east and south-east of the city mostly came in at well under half that. Labor’s Hindmarsh MP Steve Georganas also had a much more relaxing election night this time around after prevailing by 108 votes in 2004, picking up a 5.0 per cent swing that was fairly evenly distributed throughout the electorate.
Labor’s biggest swing in South Australia was wasted in the safe Liberal rural seat of Barker, where Liberal member Patrick Secker went to preferences for the first time since 1998 after his primary vote fell from 53.2 per cent to 46.8 per cent. Labor was up 8.6 per cent on the primary vote and 10.4 per cent on two-party preferred. Swings were larger in the bigger centres than the small rural booths: all five Mount Gambier booths produced above average swings, peaking at a remarkable 21.4 per cent at Mount Gambier North. Talk of a swing in Grey big enough to endanger the Liberals was partly borne out by double-digit swings in the seat’s traditional Labor centres of Whyalla, Port August and Port Lincoln. Swings were much more gentle in the many smaller rural and remote booths, dampening the overall shift down to an insufficient but still severe 9.4 per cent.
Alexander Downer’s seat of Mayo followed the statewide trend in swinging to Labor by 6.5 per cent. Particularly heavy swings were recorded at the southern coastal towns of Victor Harbor and Goolwa. Nine years after coming within an ace of winning the seat, the Australian Democrats can now manage only 1.5 per cent. The Greens did well to increase 3.4 per cent to 11.0 per cent, partly assisted by the donkey vote. Another good seat for the Greens was Port Adelaide, where they picked up 3.3 per cent and boosted Labor from a 3.7 per cent increase on the primary vote to 6.8 per cent on two-party preferred. Remarkably, all but one of the 10 booths in Paralowie, Salisbury and Parafield to the east of Port Wakefield Road produced a double digit swing, a trend which carried over into neighbouring Makin. Swings in booths further west varied around the 4 per cent mark.
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Merry christmas to all, even Liberals.
I wish a new year full of honest, competent, government to all, should be quite a change. Hopefully that will mean a Democrat Prsident in the US. For ex-Liberal apparachiks, well I hope you get new jobs not involved in public policy making. Personally, I got what I wanted on 24 November, so anything else after that is a bonus
Diogenes, I totaly agree on Iraq, and your mentioning one of my favourite books – Brbara Touchman’s “The March to Folly”. Sadly with the author’s death a new edition with chapter’s on Buch, Iraq and the Australian Liberals won’t be possible.
For those interested in Iraq and the middle east generally, may I suggest Juan Cole’s excellent blog “Informed Comment” at:
http://www.juancole.com/
Cole is an American history professor who has lived in, studied and taught in the middle east as well as the US. He posts on news in Iraq almost every day. The number of “small” bombings and urders he posts that don’t even make the news here is frightening.
Merry Christmas to all (ducked out from all the chaos of lunch for my usual spot of sanity. Who needs valium when we have PB!)
Thanks so much ,William…you have been a most patient and indulgent host.
To the rest, so enjoy your contributions…reassuring to know others who are about more than just retail,real estate and sharemarkets!
What’s all this about Hillary? As much as I’d welcome just about any Democrat candidate, if the mood is on for real change, then the nomination must go to Obama. Then we’ll see the business of politics dropped on its head and changed forever. Noble ideals wil once again be valued rather than pilloried. That’s what I want for Christmas 08.
Merry Christmas all.
OMG.. quick check, is anybody experiencing a partner or relative who is totally pissed and being horrible right now…
God help me I am.
ps: and no. its not Mr Claus
#292 – I suggest that you have a look at the number of things in your household that is “Made in China”. Things that make your and your family life pleasurable and enjoyable. Things that have been produced at a very affordable price due the blood, sweat and tears of the Chinese people.
I also suggest that you look at your super and see how many companies your super fund invested in that rely heavily with the China trade.
So don’t bite the hand that feed you. Other than that I wish you happy and safe Xmas and NY.
A very merry (not pissed) Christmas to all PB’s! Also second all the plaudits already mentioned for William and this blessed site.
Strongly recommend everybody buy a copy of Kudelka’s 101 Uses for a John Howard. Nearly burst my stitches reading his take on Ruddock (after a quadruple by-pass operation a couple of days after the election – had to follow events in snatches via the totally unrelaible MSM). Kudelka captures the mood and feel of the Howard era to a T. A vivid memento of what we’ve been through for 11+ dark years. Lest we forget.
Cheers.
Merry xmas to all labor people not libs you suck
Long live kevin 07
Now, now James…tis the season to be gracious to all our countrymen. Even the Libs deserve a merry Christmas as they enjoy the benefits of good, just and all-wise ALP Governance . For this is the gift of St Kevin of Griffith to us all.
no ferny Grover
sorry i just hates the libs much then anything in the world
yes long live st kevin of griffith
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
101 uses for a JH?? I doubt even Hyacinth could come up with more than one – and no, <YUK!!> I’m not referring to that! Tsk Tsk
The best that I can think of is him doing his royalist bit for Princess Di’s favourite charity and volunteering to roll around old minefields
sorry guys
sorry i just hates the libs more then anything in the world
yes long live st kevin of griffith
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
we are coming back
James, in the post 24/11 world….we already ARE back!
yes we ARE BACK
Sorry guys
A merry and safe Christmas to all from Hunan, China.
I dont contribute much to this fine forum but I try to read it most days, thanks William and the other contributers at PB.
Like most others on this forum I was thrilled by the impressive Labor election win, I feel proud to be an Aussie again.
The AEC knocked off with many also having taken Monday off work. The declared Victoria (As expected by all expect the Greens it was not a close race – even with the potential added Surplus Transfer bonus that invented the Greens vote). There is concern that the AEC might go down the path of the VEC and may be forced into having to publish the BTL preference results, To date the AEC has done a far better job in conducting this action. There were issues but they were minor compared to the VEC’s poor effort. Overall the AEC has been open and transparent in the conduct of the election. Lets hope they do not take a backward step by refusing to publish the detailed results and BTL data file. Victoria’s Senate count sheet is still not on line. In answer to a previous question. I do not support the destruction of our environment by arranging excessive Overseas Con Fests that provide an excuse for many to just holiday in the Sun or in the Greens case attend executive meeting of enviro con fest in Africa all paid for by the public purse when an internet connection would suffice the CO2 for the plane trip alone is equal to Australia’s average yearly consumption per person) As I am not a christian (religion is the main cause/basis of wars and conflict) and christmas is not celebrated until January 6/7 so I extend season greeting to you all. It is a joyful season indeed. Thank god the Greens did not unfairly win a seat – had they preselected David Risstrom then they may have had a chance. Either way electing Feeney and a Labor Government is the best “christmas Gift” anyone could give.
“John Who?” said Lefty E, waving his crutch.
Seasonal sentiments, and good will to all bludgers.
260
Megan Says:
December 24th, 2007 at 6:16 pm
It’s a bit sad really. Poor old england has been ruled by Europe for a very long time. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Conquest
Further reading the doomsday book:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domesday_Book
And as for Australia and the USA, i”m pretty sure the natives don’t share your point of view.
Something i think i am noticing or is it my inability to observe.
It seems like Kev07 wanders around everywhere like church today and on other TV shots without about 10 minders or are they making themselves inconspicuous.
That other bloke always seemed to have the local fotty team out with him.
Perhaps it is my imagination.
“footy” as well
Actually Megan, if you take a long time point of view, you could say Normandy invaded england then a few hundred years later the USA and then a couple of hundred more, Australia, and now a couple of hundred years later they are going after the middle east.
I know you have to look at history with a very narrow point of view and over a long time to see it that way; but I guess there are a few in the middle east that take that point of view.
Normans to rule the world, given us a few thousand years; now thats long term planning.
Normans? Humbug. It was us Swedes!
We, and/or our close kin, gave humanity ten of its greatest ‘gifts’
The Vikings,
The Normans,
The Poms,
The Russians, and eventually the Soviet Union,
The Mafia – via the Norman conquest of Sicily,
The British Empire,
Test cricket and football – via the Poms,
Volvo drivers,
Ikea.
Now that’s planning!
And I hope you bludgers are suitably grateful!
301 Socrates- I’m delighted you like Tuchman as well, although not surprised as Diogenes was often referred to as the “mad Socrates”. I was put on to the book by Norman Swan in a lecture on whistle-blowing at the Adelaide Festival of Ideas. It was a fantastic symposium and Guy Pearse, Marian Wilkinson and Julian Morrow also spoke. It can be downloaded by podcast below and I highly recommend it for anyone interested in whistle-blowing.
http://www.adelaidefestivalofideas.com.au/resources/33_lifting_the_lid.mp3
PS Ferny- Agree Hillary is Bush-Lite and Obama is my choice as well (but not convinced he’ll get in)
USA is not yet ready for a black Prez. The lunatic right will never allow it. Go and watch an old Warren Beatty movie called: The Parallax View. BTW: I am not even sure it is ready for a woman Prez.
At the end of a long and boozy day (with disastors re: seafood, forgotten presents, difficult guests etc) it is a blessed relief to sit down at the computer for a quiet moment and find that so many of you are still here.
Enjoy the rest of the year.
And I have 2 words to say to Heavenly Kevin (who to date is doing a sensatonal job I must admit),…
Pulp
Mill.
Fix it.
that should read “sensational job”…
Our hard working Conservative politicians in Queeensland are too busy doing nothing in parliament to attend committee meetings. Don’t the opposition get issued with computers with diary software attached? Or are they just incapable of planning the day.
The debating skills on display from the opposition show prefer to turn up and waffle with no preparation and either can’t understand or haven’t bothered to read about issues they are listed to debate.
I’d have thought that with the dire state they are in, Seeney might have ordered a rethinking of the work ethic and a working out of what is important ahead of making excuses for their non attendance at set piece meetings.
But then again, it is Queensland and the opposition lives in a world of its own up here.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22970283-952,00.html
321 MayoFeral, to the best of my knowledge the Normans WERE originally Vikings, and the Vikings originated more from Denmark and Norway than Sweden. No self-respecting Viking would ever have driven a Volvo for god’s sake hahahaha.
297 Deano ‘Now, can someone tell me, who will be the next Liberal state/federal premier/prime minister?? And in what year?’
No Deano, the next Lib PM hasn’t yet been born, but I forecast that when he is the sun will go blood red and the skies will be rent asunder, he will be named Damien and he will have the mark of the beast upon him.
Basil, there is still a nest of Liberals to be dealt with at the Brisbane City Hall elections. Voting on March 15, 2008 should see the end of this weird era of politics. The last standing descendant of a Howard Government Minister is a strange anomaly.
Steve, do you know who is currently the second-highest ranking Lib elected official in Oz (after Bris City Council)?
After March 15 the will the baton be handed on?
No that is it for leadership roles in all of Australia, but even in Brisbane City council the Liberals are a minority rump of ineffective conservative time servers just waiting for March 15 to arrive so they can join their Federal colleagues at Centrelink, which Gridlock’s mother helped establish, I believe.
Their only sense of power comes from having Gridlock Campbell as Lord Mayor. I think after that there are a few University unions run by young Libs such as Queensland University but nothing of any consequence.
327 Basil Fawlty – Its probably true that the Swedish arm of the Viking hoards let their Norwegian and Danish
lackeyskin do much of the heavy lifting in the west and hog the limelight, but we ended up with the loot:Mayo, they were probably spilled from the pockets of the Danes when they were enjoying the hospitality of your Swedish womenvolk. And you still haven’t addressed how the hell could any Viking have stooped so low as to invent Volvos and Ikea
The Greens have taken the vic senate results on the chin. It was a dissappointing return for a very good primary vote of over 10%. That’s just the way it goes in the senate sometimes. What didn’t help was Labour scoring a near perfect 3 quotas leaving no leftovers for us after their 3 senators were elected.
In 04 there were 4 conservatives elected whilst this year they just got over the line for 3. The “unused” portion vote was all ours.
What is heartening is the increase in our vote and, hopefully, we will be able to one day win senate seats outright (just like Bob does). Untill then we will just keep plugging away, leading the debate on climate change, human rights and democracy. You will see many of our current policies pop up with the major parties a few years down the track.
Already we have seen the Labour’s take on the environment. It’ better than Howards, how could it not be. But like the state governments, the perception of being good for the environment is far more important than being good for the environment. Just like trying to get tickets for a Midnight Oil’s concert at Festival Hall back in 1987 – it’s a sell out. Peter wants to dredge the bay and pulp the Tamar. Can I get a refund on my old 10, 9, 8,……?
It’s been a good year, and very nearly an excellent year.
Rudd looks rather scandinavian and I can picture him driving a Volvo. There he was on Nov 24th, his stance was Beowulf-like with ripped abs and steeled resolve. “I will kill your Monster”. The rest is history
I reckon Ponting will elect to bat if he wins the toss and Hogg should be given a cap, as we need the variety and I predict good turn as the track wears.
BF @ 333 – Volvos, especially ones driven by blokes wearing hats – 20/21st century versions of the Viking helmet – have probably struck fear into the hearts of more people in a single year than the longboats ever did!
BTW-the longships’ long, narrow, shallow draft hull was probably designed more for rowing long distances down Russian rivers than sailing the North Sea. The fact Vikings regular rowed all the way to Baghdad proves how well suited they were.
As for Ikea, I’m sure the Swedes do a lot of ROTFLTAO whenever they think about the antics of those trying to assemble the stuff.
Ikeans are sadists.
Speaking of US politics, has anyone here seen those street polls in the US where people respond that they think that Obama is a Muslim terrorist? SCARY.
Somehow I don’t like the guy’s chances, as good as it would be to see a Black American get up, I think the redneck factor is still too strong. While Hillary has to overcome similar prejudice the Clinton years are now looked back on with nostalgia by many, and after the village idiot I do not think the Republicans have a hope in hell.
Dear Senate Watch/Melb PC or whoever you are
You appear to have an unreasonable grudge re the Greens and I can only think it relates to David Risstrom not being preselected (noting your last comment) by the Greens. I don’t quite understand what your issue with Dr Richard di Natale is – maybe you should explain that. With respect to the Global Greens Conference in Brazil (which is what I think you are referring to, and which takes place once every 6 years) perhaps you should also consider that the ALP sends delegates to international conferences, “indulges” in exchanges with US Democrats & UK Labor, has a handy “democracy fund” (can’t remember the exact name) that it and the Libs set up to exchange people with SE Asian/Oceanian parties to educate them in “Australian democracy”, so please, spare us this carry-on. Maybe its escaped your attention but global discussions about the fate of the planet sometimes really do need face-to-face meetings, side meetings, committee’s and all the other paraphenalia of conferences. Maybe we can agree we just don’t need lots of them?
BTW winning Vic would have been very nice for the Greens, especially given we polled over 10% there, but them’s the breaks (yes, we remember getting Kerry elected with 4.15%, so goes the roll of the preference dice). And we didn’t “invent” the Green vote of 10% – the voting public created it as reality.
As for the commentary regarding 1v1v – I think you need first to define what you mean by “democracy” and how voting actually fits into that definition. Glib assertions about democracy being all about voting, 1v1v, plurality etc really diminishes any broader understanding of social relations. “Democracy” can be just a mechanism, but it can also describe those relations – I think you are taking a too mechanistic view of democracy, limiting it solely to a voting theory.
Re the Brisbane City Council election on March 15. Do they realise that’s the Ides of March??
I would feel more confident about the ALPs chances in the Brisbane City Council if they had not parachuted in someone from outside the party. Is Labor so bereft of talent in Brisbane? With even some rusted on Labor voters fairly luke-warm about Rowell, my gut feeling is that the voters will stick with Campbell
Ferny Grover
I will be watching the progress of Rowell over the next decade, as he has a lot of support and respect from federal Labor.
I believe he is been groomed for bigger things and he might just surprise in the election and it wouldn’t hurt if he got some experience before he steps up.
Scaper, I like your optimism but he’ll need to talk about more than cricket if he wants to prove he can run the biggest municipal council in the world. It’s been a very muted campaign up till now and it will take more than a few weeks to get him known and to win public confidence.
Stewart J
you are wasting keyboard taps trying to reason with Melbcity/senate watch. His irrational hatred of the Greens and his conspiracy theories re: Richard’s preselection etc are obviously based on personal issues for him and have no relevance to the political discourse whatsoever.
Nice try though.
And as disappointing the Vic senate result is the fact remains that over a million Australians voted for the Greens in 2007.
We are having an undeniable impact on the decisions being made re climate change, sustainable energy development, indigeneous affairs and industrial relation, to name a few key areas.
The ranting of the Anti-Greens is becoming more ridiculous by the day.
Ferny Grover
I believe that Greg is an intelligent person who has studied law and public administration.
I agree that there has been no campaign as such, but the new year will see a build up of his profile to the public.
Can’t wait for the action to start as I’m addicted now to the process…oh well.
FG. You have a valid point with respect to Rowell candidature. Its early days still but I’m sure when the campaign cranks up then the candidates will have their ‘15min’ of fame to spoil us rate payers.
I also beleive that our council election will have national spotlight as to see if the last standing Liberal in power of any significance can survive as Labor will try to breach the walls of the BCC. Its going to be intense.
PS – was Jim Soorley an ex priest of no standing in the ALP when he stole the show from Sally-Anne?
Yes AG, Soorley was an ex-priest. He had a history of social justice campaigning but his links to Labor were thin prior to his preselection
What do people think John and Janette did this Christmas??
Who cares!
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