Welcome to episode two in the slower-than-anticipated Post-Match Report round-up of federal electorate results, which today brings us to South Australia.
Of the three seats that were highly marginal for the Liberals going into the election, Kingston emerged with the smallest Labor margin following a relatively subdued 4.5 per cent swing. The swing was reasonably consistent throughout the electorate, though slightly heavier at Morphett Vale and the Liberal-voting suburbs to the north than along the coast. Makin produced the third biggest swing in the state, perhaps boosted by the retirement of sitting member Trish Draper, with the 0.9 per cent margin obliterated by an evenly distributed 8.6 per cent shift to Labor. In Wakefield the swing was 7.3 per cent, which was markedly lower than in the small towns in the north of the electorate than in the low-income outer Adelaide centres of Elizabeth and Salisbury.
Only at four of Boothby’s 42 booths did Nicole Cornes achieve a swing greater than the 5.4 per cent needed to win the seat. All were in strong Liberal areas, including the coast around Brighton and the Adelaide Hills suburb of Flagstaff Hill. Labor’s worst results came in the area closest to the city, with swings to the Liberals recorded at Mitcham, Myrtle Bank, Kingswood and Hawthorn West. The Greens’ vote picked up 3.1 per cent, perhaps benefiting from embarrassment surrounding Cornes’s performance. In Sturt the Labor candidate Mia Handshin picked up a close-but-no-cigar swing of 5.9 per cent that was concentrated in the heavily mortgaged northern end of the electorate, with swings near or above 10 per cent at Dernancourt, Gilles Plains and Windsor Gardens. Pyne now sits on an uncomfortable margin of 0.9 per cent.
The 7.2 per cent swing in Adelaide was slightly higher than the state average of 6.8 per cent, and was driven in remarkable degree by the stronger Labor areas to the north and north-west of the city. The swings in many of these booths cracked double figures, whereas the strong Liberal booths to the north-east and south-east of the city mostly came in at well under half that. Labor’s Hindmarsh MP Steve Georganas also had a much more relaxing election night this time around after prevailing by 108 votes in 2004, picking up a 5.0 per cent swing that was fairly evenly distributed throughout the electorate.
Labor’s biggest swing in South Australia was wasted in the safe Liberal rural seat of Barker, where Liberal member Patrick Secker went to preferences for the first time since 1998 after his primary vote fell from 53.2 per cent to 46.8 per cent. Labor was up 8.6 per cent on the primary vote and 10.4 per cent on two-party preferred. Swings were larger in the bigger centres than the small rural booths: all five Mount Gambier booths produced above average swings, peaking at a remarkable 21.4 per cent at Mount Gambier North. Talk of a swing in Grey big enough to endanger the Liberals was partly borne out by double-digit swings in the seat’s traditional Labor centres of Whyalla, Port August and Port Lincoln. Swings were much more gentle in the many smaller rural and remote booths, dampening the overall shift down to an insufficient but still severe 9.4 per cent.
Alexander Downer’s seat of Mayo followed the statewide trend in swinging to Labor by 6.5 per cent. Particularly heavy swings were recorded at the southern coastal towns of Victor Harbor and Goolwa. Nine years after coming within an ace of winning the seat, the Australian Democrats can now manage only 1.5 per cent. The Greens did well to increase 3.4 per cent to 11.0 per cent, partly assisted by the donkey vote. Another good seat for the Greens was Port Adelaide, where they picked up 3.3 per cent and boosted Labor from a 3.7 per cent increase on the primary vote to 6.8 per cent on two-party preferred. Remarkably, all but one of the 10 booths in Paralowie, Salisbury and Parafield to the east of Port Wakefield Road produced a double digit swing, a trend which carried over into neighbouring Makin. Swings in booths further west varied around the 4 per cent mark.
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Cuddling the grandkids and dwelling on what a difference a year makes
Who??
You know - George and Laura’s best friends.
meant to say only friends.
Re: the anti-Greens stuff, yes, I’m reminded of Gandhi’s line “first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you - and then you win”.
The Greens have resoundingly dispatched all other third forces - they are now it. They have formal party status in the upper house, loads of new resources as a result, they safely outpoll the Nats, and are already the opposition in HOR seats like Melbourne.
If Australia had proportional representation, they’d hold the BOP in most states.
They still need to: get smarter on upper house prefs; run more professional campaigns; push strategic GRN 1 ALP 2 voting harder.
Agreed Lefty -
we need to improve our campaigning, and I have no doubt that wll happen with the increase in resources and profile of the party.
The Greens need to do a lot more with Andrew Wilkie. If you had put him up for the Victorian Senate he would have given you the mainstream profile and credibility which Peter Singer or Richard Di Natale never could. He may have been worth that extra couple of votes you needed.
Were you keeping Wilkie in his place by making him Bob’s number two?
Turning Worm-
the lead senate candidates are chosen in a ballot by the membership.
At the moment many people are more scared of the Greens than of Labor. There was a lot of qualitative polling during the year which seemed to show this. The Greens were under attack from FF and other christian/conservative groups - gay rights/drugs/needle exchanges/peace… - the Greens would bring Australia to its knees. Or so the story went.
The Greens have been sidelined for years now. I expect the newly gained opportunity to amend and pass Labor bills will provide a platform for them to be seen as responsibly progressive and above all safe. The next three years (if no DD) should be seminal. Brown has the smarts to see this and it should be the making of the Greens as a permanent influence in Australian federal politics.
But a too conservative Rudd would make things interesting.
Bryce -
I find it interesting that there is so much focus on the Greens, particularly during such a clear Labor/Liberal elction period.
We are clearly gaining traction.
Happy Christmas and a successful new year to all Poll Bludgers. To William, I hope that you got at least as much benefit from this site as it provided me and the other users during the past year. You are on my shortlist for Australian of the Year.
Topically, I received a visit from a family group of young Iraqi refugees this morning. They were handing out home made Turkish delight to residents of the street, as Christmas gifts. Very nice!
I look forward to hearing from you all in the New Year. In the meantime, if you wish to be outraged read the excellent report in the weekend Financial Review by Pamela Williams re the Howard decline and fall. The hubris and sense of entitlement of Jannette Howard is astonishing.
The other interesting thing about the Brisbane City Council election is that it will be the first election run by New ALP State Secretary, Anthony Chisolm following Milton Dick’s decision to run in the safe ward of Richlands. Gridlock Campbell has given Chisolm ample material for election ads against Gridlock with his broken promises on rates, fixing gridlock, etc
Jen @ 358
That sounded like an awfully political response. Are you saying that Andrew Wilkie decided of his own accord to nominate himself as a Senate candidate for the Greens in the same State as the leader of the party? Perhaps I have overestimated Mr Wilkie in that case.
For a rough view of the story of Gridlock Campbell so far..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Newman
Jen
It is quite clear that the Greens are gaining traction, but they are restricting their cred as an option because of their stoicism on certain issues relating to preservation in unison with the need to develop in a responsible manner.
There has to be a bit of give and take and this needs to be expressed I believe.
What you say is quite true, Bryce - but Im not convinced it matters a fig. FF have basically no public support, anywhere. The fact that the VIC ALP cocked up bigtime in 04 and randomly generated Mr 1.7% Fielding doesnt mean the Happys have much to Clappy about.
In sum, who cares if some politically irrelevant God botherers hate the Greens!
TurningWorm -
that was not a political response, rather an explanation for how the lead candidates get selected- ie Richard won preselection in Victoria via a ballot. To my knowledge Wilkie did not stand anywhere other than Tasmania, where clearly Bob was going to be the lead candidate.
There was a hope that Tassie could get 2 senators up, so there was a genuine hope (albeit an admitted long shot) that Andrew Wilkie could get elected there.
scaper …
I’m not sure what you mean re: “certain issues relating to preservation…”. If this is the standard argument that the Greens are anti-development, then it iis a generalisation, and incorrect.
Our polices are clear about the need for sustainable development in all aspects of industry. Perhaps you could be more concise so that I can try and give a clearer response.
Lefty E-
true enough. This selection proved the Fundies are back in their box pretty much everywhere.
i suspect that when Bush gets the Republicans the flogging they deserve the influence of the Christian Right will disappear altogether.
ooops -I meant “this Election”!!
Lefty, I wasn’t saying FF was a threat or had any support. Next election (if not a DD) they’ll be gone - and good riddance.
I was just remarking on the barrage of frighteners the likes of FF (and others) heaped on the Greens before the election. This got lots of publicity and did resonate against the Greens. But will not work as well next election. The Greens will be an active player in the political process over the next three years and, like Labor next time, will have runs on the board and be much more robust in deflecting any scare campaigns.
My much overdue election wrap-up mainly focusing on Tasmanian seats is now up at http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/weblog/article/the-election-that-was/ . A couple of Pollbludger posters have been acknowledged!
Jen
I know for fact that the Greens do support development, but I believe that they need to be more flexible on certain matters relating to disturbance and the impact on habitat for the long term future of such.
If we are to move forward to meet the challenges, we need not only at preservation but enhancement also.
This is where they are somewhat lacking.
I would also like to see the party expand their platform to further enhance their support at the voting booths.
Hi Scaper @ 336,
Well your predictions were right.
Have just returned from a fantastic day at “The G”.
There is not much better than a perfect Melbourne day (25 degrees, light breeze, cloudless sky) spent at the cricket.
The track was bit slow so the ball did not come on to the bat. This meant that the batsmen had to spend a fair bit of time acclimatising. Notwithstanding the Indian quicks bowled accurately and with good heart. At least one of the early LBW appeals looked very, very close.
Anil Kumble bowled magnificently and troubled all the Aussies. The guy has been here before without much success. Obviously, had a few new tricks including the “wrong un” good enough to do over Jacques and Hussey.
Hayden played solidly for his century (sixth in seven years apparently). However, was not a classic innings. The outfield was slow probably an outcome of all the rain we had over the weekend but certainly dried out toward the end of the day.
With just over four overs to go Australia 8/306. I thought a total of about 320 would make the day and match pretty even. Enter Clark at No 11 who batted inspirationally. Looked like Steve Waugh with his square drives.
9/337. Goota say leaning to Australia’s day. The wicket will get quicker and the bounce will be lower and more variable as the match progresses. Runs on the board equals money in the bank.
I hope the Indians can bat well tomorrow and make it a classic. Hoggy gets his chance tomorrow to prove whether he is up to the class.
Season’s greetings to all!
In reference to an earlier post re Vikings:
I have a soft spot for Vikings: they were good with wood. Ikeans are, to me a barbaric race, who use small screws to ill-effect. Jack-hammers are the weapons of choice, or showers of river pebbles dropped from considerable height.
The Australian Prime Minister, Mr Kevin Rudd, is on the cricket tomorrow ….
I agree with all that Bryce. Must have missed some dabs of nuance in your original post.
Which is hardly so very surprising, since Im 3 sheets to the wind.
Happy box day, p-bludgers!
Bludge on!!
The sad, sad Haneef saga in today’s Age. (http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/a-contemptible-episode-closes/2007/12/25/1198345005239.html)
Hear hear to its final sentence- ‘The final act should be a judicial inquiry’.
scaper… still not sure what you are referring to.
Jen
Apologies for being cagey but it is best.
I would like to say that the Greens figure highly in my agenda and my criticism is of a constructive overview.
They can emerge to fill the void…with a bit of tinkering and refined PR.
scaper..
your “cageyness” intrigues me. (Who do you think is listening??)
neophyte:
I hope the final act will be criminal trials and appropriate sentencing for those that perpetrated such an injustice, which is only a small sample of the remorselessly cruel treatment the former government inflicted on so many innocent and needy people.
Agreed that it would be a good thing, Jen 378, but is it possible?
I can’t make out if this story is for real or the Murdoch press making mischief.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22974795-601,00.html
Greeensborough Growler, lets just hope we get no LBW off the helmet for Tendulkar this time, or was that Lara a few years back.
Steve 380
probably mischief-BUT if i was a senior public servant i would be really scared of the white room
apparently Rudd (and others) have used this to good effect in the past
simply put,the person in question is given an offfice which contains a desk and chair a writing pad and some pens/pencils,nothing else-then told to produce some report into a totally obscure area of their responsibilty.
takes about two weeks max
I like this one,
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/respect_where_its_due
Phew, aren’t we lucky to have had Gerard Henderson’s level-headed and objective social and political commentary during the past year.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/a-year-of-fear-and-loathing-and-failed-prophets/2007/12/26/1198345078217.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
However he let his guard down in “September” when he revealed he could “see” into JH’s mind to know that he did not pray for a terrorist attack.
What a prat.
Philmour
“While most Australians were sleeping-in and trying to recover from the gluttony of Christmas Day, a certain elected official was serving breakfast to the homeless in Canberra. It wasn’t your typical political event _ there was no media and no roadshow, just a few security personnel and the Prime Minister. He handed out the Boxing Day fare of eggs and bacon, a rare treat, and listened intently and with respect while guests and volunteers told him their life stories and gave their commentary on how he was doing so far.”
Rudd also gave all staff at the lodge the day off on Xmas, he and Therese did their own Xmas lunch and cleanup like most families.
Philmour and Arbie Jay- Mike Rann visited a burns victim in hospital a few years ago whose family had died in the bushfires without any media. It’s hard enough for doctors and nurses to deal with that but I was really impressed Rann would go through such a gruelling experience to console a distraught man. Made me think twice about him and politicians in general.
Morning all -
I’m sitting at work browsing through the MSM, and then checking out PB. The story about Rudd helping the homeless and doing the family Christmas thing is heartening indeed, particularly in contrast with the Haneef finding as a reminder of the mean-spiritedness and paranoia our last government was infecting us with.
I am still surprised at how quickly their influnce is becoming confined to the dustbin of history.
Gosh! I have never seen so much interest in a Brisbane City Council election!
And go away SenateWatch / MelbCity, with your irrational rantings.
And why do you presume Risstrom would have won this time around when di Natale actually increased the vote (from that achieved by Risstrom in ‘04)?
The Organ of the Government in Exile (formerly GG) can’t help itself. In a spiteful piece on NGOs and their use of donated funds in Indonesia and Thailand, Ean Higgins cites a ’survey by The Australian’ and ‘critics’ such as Don D’Cruz of the Institute of Public Affairs to lambast World Vision, Caritas and Oxfam for their left-wing, politically correct campaigns to improve the status of women and encourage workers to defend their rights. Anyone who works in NGOs in developing countries knows that funding focusing on opportunities for women results in excellent outcomes.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22974796-2702,00.html
apres -
you just took the gloss of my sense of well-being. Ean Higgins is a total prat. And when is the Instiute of Public Affairs going to be called by it’s correct name: the Institue of Rightwing Neoconservative Bastards.
That would be Institute…
Relax Jen, the spelling police are still on holidays. The main thing is that you spelt neoconservative bastards correctly.
Thanks apres,
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22974796-2702,00.html
Interesting how this enormous tragedy can be used to attack the left.
Altruists from all over the world have rallied to assist in the rebuilding - but what do we hear from the conservatives? An attempt to denigrate those on the ground and concoct a political argument to serve up to the “mums and dads” in Australia proof that aid agencies are misusing their donations and are no more than socialist fronts.
The very charter of the Institute of Public Affairs is to be an organ for political education. And this report is consistent with their aims! What hypocrites.
Hands up all those who thought that Pauline Hanson ran for office just to collect the $200,000 plus dollars! Not true according to her but she did promise to be back again now that the money has been banked after another successful suckling of the taxpayers funds. It is just that awful biased media with the politics of jealousy apparently. Would the media please stop picking on her so she can spend our funds with a clear conscience. Thank you.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/why-pick-on-me-asks-pauline/2007/12/27/1198345128843.html
steve-
I’m sure you are misjudging the altruistic Ms Hanson.
After all let’s not forget that she was prepared to risk her life for her beliefs
(as attested to in the video she released before the last election…”if you are watching this I have been murdered”…).
Practically a martyr for her cause, so i’m sure she deserves every cent she has managed to drain out of the public purse for her efforts.
#384 - I might add another one for dear old Gerard:
22/10/07 - Lateline - The day Andrew Bolt called him a “chicken”.
ANDREW BOLT: Hello Gerard, Gerard we know your game, you’ll sit on the fence, not say anything. You’re paid danger money to predict, and at the end of it all you’ll run your little essays every election, pinging those who had the guts to say something, but were wrong. Now come on, you’re paid danger money to make a prediction, make one.
GERARD HENDERSON: Andrew, all I… the only… all I know is that all the prophets I know have been foul prophets, all of them. And I don’t run down the…
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s2066830.htm
396 Yes, Jen who knows what her motives are? Not me. All I see is the money being extracted after every unsuccessful attempted run for office.
Of more interest is that a cyclone could be developing off the Queensland coast and move in to fill up Brisbane’s dams. We’ve had cloudy weather for days but only a couple of patches of drizzle.
A cyclone coming down to the Sunshine Coast region would be superb. It used to happen all the time but it is years since a cyclone had the potential to form and cross the coast so far south. It would solve a lot of the political problems in SE Qld as well as causing some new ones of its own.
http://weather.brisbanetimes.com.au/local.jsp?lt=aploc&lc=9388&t=b
Great, a cyclone when I’ll be heading to Fraser on Saturday.
Oh well, that won’t stop us having a good time though.
An extra bottle of Chivas will have to be purchased.
Hi scaper -
first i’ve heard that chivas regal protects one from cyclones.
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