Welcome to episode two in the slower-than-anticipated Post-Match Report round-up of federal electorate results, which today brings us to South Australia.
Of the three seats that were highly marginal for the Liberals going into the election, Kingston emerged with the smallest Labor margin following a relatively subdued 4.5 per cent swing. The swing was reasonably consistent throughout the electorate, though slightly heavier at Morphett Vale and the Liberal-voting suburbs to the north than along the coast. Makin produced the third biggest swing in the state, perhaps boosted by the retirement of sitting member Trish Draper, with the 0.9 per cent margin obliterated by an evenly distributed 8.6 per cent shift to Labor. In Wakefield the swing was 7.3 per cent, which was markedly lower than in the small towns in the north of the electorate than in the low-income outer Adelaide centres of Elizabeth and Salisbury.
Only at four of Boothby’s 42 booths did Nicole Cornes achieve a swing greater than the 5.4 per cent needed to win the seat. All were in strong Liberal areas, including the coast around Brighton and the Adelaide Hills suburb of Flagstaff Hill. Labor’s worst results came in the area closest to the city, with swings to the Liberals recorded at Mitcham, Myrtle Bank, Kingswood and Hawthorn West. The Greens’ vote picked up 3.1 per cent, perhaps benefiting from embarrassment surrounding Cornes’s performance. In Sturt the Labor candidate Mia Handshin picked up a close-but-no-cigar swing of 5.9 per cent that was concentrated in the heavily mortgaged northern end of the electorate, with swings near or above 10 per cent at Dernancourt, Gilles Plains and Windsor Gardens. Pyne now sits on an uncomfortable margin of 0.9 per cent.
The 7.2 per cent swing in Adelaide was slightly higher than the state average of 6.8 per cent, and was driven in remarkable degree by the stronger Labor areas to the north and north-west of the city. The swings in many of these booths cracked double figures, whereas the strong Liberal booths to the north-east and south-east of the city mostly came in at well under half that. Labor’s Hindmarsh MP Steve Georganas also had a much more relaxing election night this time around after prevailing by 108 votes in 2004, picking up a 5.0 per cent swing that was fairly evenly distributed throughout the electorate.
Labor’s biggest swing in South Australia was wasted in the safe Liberal rural seat of Barker, where Liberal member Patrick Secker went to preferences for the first time since 1998 after his primary vote fell from 53.2 per cent to 46.8 per cent. Labor was up 8.6 per cent on the primary vote and 10.4 per cent on two-party preferred. Swings were larger in the bigger centres than the small rural booths: all five Mount Gambier booths produced above average swings, peaking at a remarkable 21.4 per cent at Mount Gambier North. Talk of a swing in Grey big enough to endanger the Liberals was partly borne out by double-digit swings in the seat’s traditional Labor centres of Whyalla, Port August and Port Lincoln. Swings were much more gentle in the many smaller rural and remote booths, dampening the overall shift down to an insufficient but still severe 9.4 per cent.
Alexander Downer’s seat of Mayo followed the statewide trend in swinging to Labor by 6.5 per cent. Particularly heavy swings were recorded at the southern coastal towns of Victor Harbor and Goolwa. Nine years after coming within an ace of winning the seat, the Australian Democrats can now manage only 1.5 per cent. The Greens did well to increase 3.4 per cent to 11.0 per cent, partly assisted by the donkey vote. Another good seat for the Greens was Port Adelaide, where they picked up 3.3 per cent and boosted Labor from a 3.7 per cent increase on the primary vote to 6.8 per cent on two-party preferred. Remarkably, all but one of the 10 booths in Paralowie, Salisbury and Parafield to the east of Port Wakefield Road produced a double digit swing, a trend which carried over into neighbouring Makin. Swings in booths further west varied around the 4 per cent mark.
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400 [first i’ve heard that chivas regal protects one from cyclones.]
It may well do because if this thing spins up Scaper will be drinking from the comfort of home. They have had six metre waves off Mackay already and it has only just barely began to turn let alone spin.
Jen
“The story about Rudd helping the homeless and doing the family Christmas thing is heartening indeed, particularly in contrast with the Haneef finding as a reminder of the mean-spiritedness and paranoia our last government was infecting us with.”
To be fair Howard was not without his own brand of charity for the homeles and those with disabilities.
Case in point was Trevor Flugge, he was homeless in his own way, being a failed National Party candidate, so out of the goodness of their hearts the so called former mean-spirited government appointed him to AWB, and even went as far as to ensure his $978,000 salary for one year was tax free. What makes this even more heart warming is that they put aside considerations, in making the appointment, of his percieved disabilities that were later found in the AWB inquiry such as poor hearing, eyesight and memory.
Hey, it prevents me going out to the bar for a drink during the tempest.
Quite obvious I thought.
We are at this point, still going.
Interesting Xmas discussions this year. Politics always features high on the list of topics. Lunch was at the lefty side of the family and the entire gathering was rather happy about the outcome and each of Howard’s attack dog’s exit was marked with a toast. Downer’s demise was toasted several times.
We’re all still learning that broadcasts that started with “the prime minister said today….” means you no longer have to brace yourself for some twisted Textor-Crosby dog whistle sound bite.
Dinner was over to the “right” side of the family, hard-core Liberals – small business owners – say no more (good food though). Surprisingly, they raised the topic and said they thought Rudd, to their surprise, “was pretty good” and that Howard had “lost it”. They still voted for Howard but thought the outcome was probably for the best.
They seemed to think this is just a needed spell on the bench and they will close at the next election and back into power the one after.
402 Arbie Jay, Trev sounds like a modern day version of Tommy the pinball wizard.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHxpy7O004s&feature=related
As a Mayo Feral can i be confident of going to the polls in the next year-and-a-half, either through Downer retiring or a DD?
Arbie ,
I hang my head in shame at so misjudging the charitable nature of our former leaders.
To think I let a little things like detaining children behind razorwire, passing racist legislation against indigenous Australians, supporting the illiegal invasion of a nation resulting in untold numbers of civilian casualties, and so on and so forth, to taint my view of such benevalence.
Thanks for setting me straight.
and scaper -
be careful. Might need the glenfiddich as well just to be sure.
when does each parties allocated electoral funding become known?
quick browse of HoR results makes me think FF might have beaten 4% in as many seats this time as last time and Greens would probably be slightly up in HoR and way up in Senate. Many more Independants receiving funding than last time also.
Molotov see this link.
http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Media_releases/12_18(c).htm
or this but if the link doesn’t work see under ‘Hot election Topics’ on AEC website in the virtual tally room.
http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Media_releases/12_18(c).htm
Many of those associated with AWB seem to suffer the exact same afflictions. The Health Commission should investigate this to determine whether simultaneous exposure to right wing ideology, wheat, money and Middle Eastern potentates is a health hazard. Perhaps it’s a mutation of the illness that caused Alan Bond to forget just about everything but his name (and, strangely, that of ABC reporter Paul Barry) some years ago. Thankfully, Bond fully recovered after a rest and a few months light work in a library.
I’ve read ‘concerns’ that some of those affected may become confined to small 10×8ft rooms for many hours each day. Apparently, this may go on for many years. Presumably, it’s some type of agoraphobia. ;^)
MayoFeral, there was a case very similar in Queensland a few years ago when the wife of Bjelke Petersen’s media spindoctor was jailed for ripping money off the Queensland Day Committee. She developed an allergy to iron bars on discovering she was to be locked up with prostitutes and drug addicts. It seems she thought that these people were different to her.
Jen
And maybe a Dimple as well?
Actually we are staying on the sheltered side and the hotel rooms are fortified for such an event.
Scaper only problem if we get some serious rain is that the creeks flood between Gympie and Rainbow Beach but who knows what will happen. The situation will be clearer by tomorrow morning.
Molotov @ 406 - In a way I hope not. The thing is the bugger is a useless, lazy idiot, so lucrative offers to join company boards, etc, are going to be rarer than hen’s teeth, as are village idiot opening, so Lord Downer of Mayo’s options come down to staying where he is, grabbing the super and running, or taking Hamilton-Smith’s job.
I believe a combination of greed and Her Ladyship’s desire to not have him cluttering up the manor house any more than absolutely necessary will rule out the second option for the time being, and I fear for the future of the state if he ever become premier (surely bank disasters and interminable drought are punishment enough for our sins), so keeping him on the federal opposition back bench is, IMHO, undoubtedly the best of a bad hand.
Of course, there is a fourth possibility, but that is in the hands of the A-G and I don’t fancy the chances with McClelland in the chair. I would have been happier if the new member for Eden-Monaro had gotten that gig, but I guess this was always a long shot.
Steve
I am not leaving until Saturday.
Plenty of time to review my decision.
415
MayoFeral Say - Just a little from an observer (lurkey person), but give it time or else it might give the appearance of vindictiveness, something that KR would like to avoid me thinks.
Wave, wave to Scaper.
As soon as any cyclone encounters scapers own personal spin I’m sure it will turn away…
418
I don’t think so really.
But do I detect a familiarity???
Scaper: Things are developing
Arbie Jay: With due respect for 11 years we have had a PM who couldn’t Hear, had a poor memory and his eyesight was hampered by those eyebows.
Steve @ 412
IMHO, she was right. Honest working girls and the mostly self-medicating mentally ill should not be tarred with the same brush, or be forced to share cells with a common thief!
Well, could say more but wont…It is best
BMW
Just went to BOM and the likelyhood of the low developing into a cyclone at this point does not look good.
But I expect a good dump of rain in the south east corner.
{holds tongue}
The Iowa Primaries are on next week with the Republicans on Jan 3 and Democratic Party on Jan 5.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tag/romney-huckabee-iowa
God help me I am.
ps: and no. its not Mr Claus
It is understandable…
Labor is for losers.
Liberal is for winners.
Here is a portion of 2SM’s 1972 news bullertin from the day after Gough’s win posted on Radio Historian’s Wayne Mac’s website, as a tribute to the late newsreader, Jim Angel, who passed away on Xmas Eve.
http://www.waynemac.com/audio/2SM%20News_1972.mp3
Bhutto is dead.
Not according to this article, unless you have some newer news ?
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22979270-5005361,00.html
On SkyNews
She is confirmed dead.
and 200,000 troops are wasting their time holding Iraq together when it should be split into three autonomous regions (shi’ia, sunni, and kurd). Those 200,000 troops should be sweeping the caves of torra borra, where this plot was obviously hatched….
SA Newspoll
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-sa-28dec.jpg
all gawn nutso in pakistan…
http://news.sky.com/skynews/livenewsevents
And so that is Christmas.
For all her human frailty, courageous in the face of the likely.
Vale.
Benazir Bhutto.
Whilst the Greens claim some shallow victory in gaining 10% of teh vote they fell short of winning 14.28% of teh vote. Fact is the overall minor party vote was down and there was insufficient transfer of minor party votes to see the Greens top quota. the Greens seem to expect that all minor parties will do teh “Democrat thing” and preference them before others. Personally I fail to see why the ALP should place the Greens ahead of others. Lets not forget the Victorian Greens split ticket. maybe the ALP and liberal party should adopt the split ticket next time. Fact is many people are realising that there is more to the Greens then those dressed up in koala suites. The Greens preselection outcome was just one example not to forget the Greens voting record in the Victorian parliament and the fact that the system provided them with a 2700 bonus. They article in the Age newspaper where the Greens were calling for a recount in the senate was a joke. They claim they were within 9,000 votes but in reality the split and difference between Labor and the Greens was more like 18,000. I do not think the greens did better then last election. Again I see that the Greenies amongst us remain silent on the obvious flaws in the system. Do not see them calling for reform in support of the one vote one value system. Ecco paraisites is anther name for them. Could it be because Family First votes were devalued and they profited from the distortion? Hypocrites, Liars and frauds is the other. Reading the comments of the various Green supporters on this site would have you thing that the Greens are beyond criticism and a protected political species. Need more information http://melbournegreens.blogpsot.com
Well, Day 2 at the MCG cricket and another fine cloudless 25 degree day. Cool breeze once again. Don’t know why everyone doesn’t just pack up and move here. It’s like this all the time.
The Aussies have certainly shown their professionalism and preparation is second to none.
A few observations.
1. The Indian quicks bowled mostly in the 125-130 kph range. Brett Lees warm up ball was 145.
2. We now have a new term for when your septic backs up. Ring up the plumber and tell him you have a “Dravid”. The days of openers just occupying the crease for hours and hours without scoring are gone. Time is made up and the Indians needed to overhaul the Aussies. Worst five ever in test cricket. Also, they did not play Sehwag who made 188 last time they were here in about two and a half sessions. Nothing like new found Indian aggression eh!!
3. Tendulkar is a little master. Best innings of the game. Took control from the moment he arrived. Got out to an inside edge. The fact is that none of his colleagues were good enough to get anywhere near the balls bowled in the corridor of uncertainty by the Aussies. He was and paid the price. Is there justice in cricket??
4. The Aussies bowled relentless line and length. Clearly a spot on or outside the offside at the southern end.
5. All the Indian newbies failed Jaffer, Yuvraj and Dhoni. Lack of preparaion??
Their body language showed they were not confident. What happened to the new all singing all dancing aggression?
6. Billy Bowden as an umpire is worse than corrupt. He is incompetent. Lee’s LBW against Harbajan an absolute shocker. Problem is that Bowden has form on this sort of rubbish. If they are out give it. Bowden seems to want to entertain, be popular and be the cente of attention. Put him in charge of the kids face painting.
7. Hoggy hung in there after some rougher than usual treatment. No one picked his wrong un. Two wickets was a fair return. Will probably play a bigger role in the second dig. Jury still out on his class at this level.
8. The Aussies got away again in the last half hour with an additional 30 plus runs. Same as yesterday. Imagine if Australia only 120 ahead instead of 180. Indians might have a chance. As it is, Aussies will aim to bat all day and get 400 plus in front. Truth is, they probably have enought already. Predicting, subject to no Queensland weather, that game will finish after Tea tommorrow.
9. What is it with Gen Ys and their phones. Had two young blokes behind me talking to everyone and anyone at the top of their voices in the middle of a largish crowd while the game was on. After 20 minutes talking to his girlfriend and telling her that he loved her around twenty times, I turned around asked him to give it a rest. Well, you reckon he didn’t take umbrage. After suffering an earful of abuse, I stood up and suggested that if he wanted phone sex he should go with his beloved phone to one of the nearby Corporate Boxes.
Further reports tomorrow…..
Bhutto’s death is horrific.
senate watch - shut TF up.
How much longer can Bush support the dictator Musharref? Isn’t Pakistan the most dangerous country in the world? Continual wars with neighbours, extremists who seem to operate unhindered and it’s a dictatorship. Oh yeah, and Bush is happy for them to have nuclear weapons. The hypocrisy is astounding.
On Bhutto, I am reminded of the immortal words of Paolo Borsellino, the anti-mafia prosecutor who was assassinated. He was asked why he would continue to hunt the mafia when he knew they would almost certainly kill him eventually and replied “The frightened ones die every day- those who are not afraid die only once”.
# 438 - Diogenes, I actually think that Bush is terrified of the idea that Pakistan has nuclear weapons. His failed courting of Musharref as a bullwark against the Taliban will now only serve to make that terror even more acute as the entire region is further destabilised. If Bhutto’s tragic death causes the US to simply withdraw its diplomatic influence because it’s all too bloody hard, we could all be in for a very rough time indeed.
Jen @ 437 - Thank you.
MelbCity @ 436 - “Lets not forget the Victorian Greens split ticket”, you say. I can’t remember it. That’s probably because there was no split ticket!
And on you go, “The Greens preselection outcome was just one example not to forget the Greens voting record in the Victorian parliament”. I don’t see how preselection for the federal Senate relates to the voting record of Greens in Victorian parliament, except that both are fair and transparent.
And, failing to offer and reason you resort to insults, “Ecco paraisites is anther name for them [Greens]… Hypocrites, Liars and frauds is the other”. I could offer a whole range of insults to describe you, but I shan’t, except to say that you lost your election to the Melbourne City Council to a couple of Greens and are still bitter about it, even though it happened almost nine years ago!
BTW, I also see Bhutto’s death as a tragedy. But, might I ask, is there any truth to this corruption that she is constantly being said to have engaged in?
Senate Watch, I no longer have to watch or listen to comedy, I just read your comments. Get a life, you Green Hater!!!!!
Sean-Thanks for explaining MelbCity’s obsession with the Greens. I knew there had to be some unresolved personal issue and now I can rest easy when I bypass his comments.
Re Bhutto, I think her husband’s guilt was more conclusively demonstrated than hers. Obviously there was a lot of politics involved but I gather that four countries have accused or convicted them of corruption so even the most hardened conspiracy theorist would be a bit concerned by that. Either way, she must have been incredibly brave to go back to Pakistan facing almost certain death.
Thanks, Dio. I had a read up of her on Wikipedia (hardly the most reliable source) and it seemed to say the same. A tragedy, nonetheless. It will be interesting to se how the coming elections pan out.
Loved the conclusion to Mungo MacCallum’s new book, Poll Dancing:
And … spare a thought for Labor’s patriarch, Gough Whitlam, who against most expectations has survived to see another Labor government in Canberra. The final word should be his: a great quotation which he used in another context altogether, but which is utterly appropriate for 24 November 2007: E quindi uscimmo a riveder le stelle. It is the last line of Dante’s Inferno, describing the poet’s return from hell, and it means: And thence we emerged, to see the stars again.
The death of Bhutto is a tragic reminder of the fragility and danger of Pakistan, the ultimate failed state. It is also a timely reminder of the danger of the notion that dividing a country can be a way to bring peace, a notion that was particularly strong in 20th century Britain. It’s failure can be readily seen in Ireland, the Middle East (particularly Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq), and of course Pakistan/Bangladesh.
One can only wonder what India could have achieved if it had been left with all it’s natural constituent parts, ie India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Kashmir, Bangladesh, Burma and just possibly Afghanistan.
Phil Robins, Thankyou for your story about Gough. I only have 3 Australian political heroes. Gough Whitlam, Don Dunstan and Bob Brown. Gough is a legend!!!!!
The Green stage in the development of history will be apon us within 25 years and the reactionaries tremble, but there is nothing they can do. The spectrum of environmental problems we are dealing with will not allow for choice. The major parties will eventually adopt the majority of the Greens economic/environmental policies (which is the same area really). There are many like SenateWatch today - especially in positions of power - but just as the Old Left is on the back foot today (and will never properly recover), so will the SenateWatch’s of tommorrow.
Can anyone tell me of anywhere where the Greens have not just lost a few % of the vote in an election but absolutly died like One Nation and the Democrates have? I don’t think its ever happened and if it has its probably been because they did something stupid like the Democrates did and were promtly replaced by another ecological party.
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