Newspoll is keeping up the good work in the post-federal election lull with a series of state polls, today following last week’s Victorian and South Australian polls with a survey showing the Coalition taking a narrow lead in Western Australia. The following charts show how Newspoll has tracked the progress of the Bracks/Brumby, Gallop/Carpenter and Rann governments.
265 Comments
When is an election due in WA?
William are you sure those date labels are correct?
But with a 13% popularity rating the opposition leader has a lot of work to do.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22989214-2702,00.html
What are the order of the next lot of State elections and when are they?
That would be my question.
This is fascinating for those following the Bhotto assassination for a couple of reasons. One is that the MSM no longer needs reporters on the ground, they just need to watch the blogosphere to work out what people think. Another is the blog sites they mention, and I can recommend Pakistaniat.com as a similar site to this one (they even do the grey and white alternating background for each blog!). I’m glad to say the bloggers in Pakistan are not buying the official cause of death. They also seem less than impressed with Bhutto’s party making her husband and son her succesors.
http://news.theage.com.au/anger-mistrust-at-bhutto-death-among-pakistans-bloggers/20071231-1jlh.html
The Coalition win a poll ! OMFG !
I feel all dizzy.
WA state poll is in early 2009 (so a year away).
SA state poll is in March 2010.
Queensland state poll could be any time, but likely to be about a year from now (they seem to like going to the polls every 2-2.5 years there!).
Tasmania is about the same time as the SA poll in 2010.
NSW isn’t until 2011.
I think the ACT is the next election, in about 10 months from now.
Just a heads-up to anyone affected (and I apologise if this has already had an airing):
Portlandbet has ceased trading – time to remove those winnings, though I doubt anyone hasn’t already.
GG,your commentary makes cricket poetic. A joy to read.
Its remarkable the WA Libs have a lead in the 2PP (51/49) yet such a low popularity for its leader (13%). Imagine if they had someone they liked.
You wouldn’t care to elaborate, Steve?
Deano: I’m not all that surprised. The WA Labor Party has been doing its absolute best to commit political suicide lately: Burke, daylight savings, the mess they’ve made of education. Any competent Liberal opposition would be trouncing them – hell, any average Liberal opposition would be trouncing them. Alas, the WA Liberals barely have a competent MP in their caucus, so I still can’t see them winning government any time soon.
The state Libs might as well write of SA next time around (although I think Labor will get less than 54% of the vote)
In Victoria, I think Labor’s support is much softer than some of the polls suggest and if they didn’t have a lazy imbecile as an opposition leader they will probably be competitve in 2010 (although judging by the competence of most of the Vic Libs, they’ll no doubt find a way to screw it up).
In WA, judging by 6 years of relatively weak state poll results, the Federal ALP’s (comparatively) weak showing in November, Carpenter must be jumping up for joy that he doesn’t have an election to fight within the next 12 months. That’s because he has some time to regain support.
That being said, I’d put money on WA being the first state to change government in 8 years.
Doubt it, One Vote, One Value in the lower house has removed the weighting in the rural seats, plus the fact that the libs and nats won’t be in a coalition and the nats standing candidates against the libs in the country will see the ALP retain Govt.
Be wary of writing SA off for the Libs. Rann has had an absolute shocker of a year, and has been drilled on pretty much every front. You know you are doing poorly when you don’t have the political capital to take on the Adelaide City Council. Yes the state libs are pathetic, but then again so was Federal Labor two years ago.
The ‘Tiser has delighted in dragging Rann down – tall poppy syndrome at it’s finest? The real test for both parties will be 2008. Hamilton-Smith have finished his honeymoon, Labor will have nothing to gain and everything to lose, and for once Rann will not be able to blame the feds for his problems. How will they all adapt?
Check the polls this time next year, because if the year is anywhere near as bad as the last, then we are in for an interesting time.
In regard to the next Western Australian election, what an opportunity for any half-decent independent candidates. The voting public would not need a lot of convincing, what with the quality of candidates from the WA Labor and Liberal Parties!
Max 15, you are VERY optimistic about the SA Liberals possibly winning government at the next state election. Hamilton -Smith spent months criticising the tram extension and yet everyone knows that it was the last Liberal Government that closed the Hawthorn and Millswood railway stations to save 3 minutes on the timetable!!!!!( The Hawthorn Station being in the electorate of Waite). The guy has NO credibilty whatsoever. The Liberal Party here has not ventured into the 21st century, just old establishment names and fundamentalist loony candidates! Also, the Green vote is strengthening bit by bit and the FF vote is collapsing, so there go the preferences!
Hmmm, 1v1v in WA actually makes a Lib state Govt (without the Nats) more possible. The Lib support is more confined to urban/regional centres, so the non-metro support for the Libs was always diluted by the Nats vote. With the new boundaries the main Lib support in Perth will be maximised and if you look carefully at the Fed ALP result for WA the northern suburbs vote for the Libs will eat away from the ALP majority, so I think a narrow Coalition victory is a potential, but the Libs will be looking long term to see an end to the state Nats and to govern in their own right.
there’s some informed comment on Pakistan happenings here -
http://www.democracynow.org click the realaudio link for interview with tariq ali & manan ahmed.
Frank Calabrese,
Correct me if I’m wrong, but given the fact that WA Labor won with a relatively small majority (by state standards) last time around, if the non-Labor parties won over 50-51 % of the vote then the ALP would lose its majority. That doesn’t seem like such a big task.
All the Libs need is a half competent leader other than Omodei and 2009 will be a good year for the Tories in WA.
So says Glen…
A-C, you haven’t reckoned on the one-vote one-value redistribution, which you can read about in very great detail here. It means the uniform swing required by the Coalition is 4.0 per cent, which would give them 51.7 per cent.
Brenton,
Not really, I’m of the opinion Rann will win although perhaps might have to rely on independents again. I don’t think there’s much doubt that they will suffer a swing, the question is how much of a swing it is.
But consider this:
- Public transport stories are only going to get worse
- The drought is scaring the bajeezes out of everyone
- HS looks to be the first Lib leader in years who is mildly competent. Yes he has wasted a lot of time this year, but to be fair there isn’t much impact any opposition can have 2.5 years from an election.
- No Liberal federal government to blame
- General unease about the new hospital, although in typical Adelaide style people are more concerned about the bloody name of it.
- Running for a third term now with a leader who has been in charge of the party for 13 years (15 by 2010 by my reckoning)
- And all this on top of the daft pledge to abolish or reform the upper house at the same time of the election, something which people haven’t fully comprehended yet.
Anyway, 2010 will be a cracker of a year all over the country, hopefully SA will be a part of it all.
Max 23 , thankyou for your response, I found it thoughtful and interesting. NO Labor or Liberal Party will be able to deal with issues of public transport and drought (global warming etc) A REVOLUTION is needed and the old parties are too frightened to make the necessary changes that will address the HUGE ENVIRONMENTAL and SOCIAL emergencies now and ahead of us. The Murray -Darling River IS a national emergency, but we spend billions on IRAQ and other wasteful enterprises!!!!! Last week there was the sad announcement to raise $150,000 to save 2 fish species that almost have nowhere to swim in our River Murray system in South Australia !!!!! Governments are failing our citizens and our environment!
how often are they doing these newspolls when is the next? With SA and WA they are the comparatley younger labor government and might be able to scrape in another term each. If the W.A government scrapes back in i would assume Tassie would be the first to fall. Partly due to the fact that the Alp will not recieve the bulk of prefferences as they win seats because of PR voting. And the condition the libs are in federally and at state level they would be very willing to give in to green demands to get their hands back on power. Remembering Tasmanian labor only has a 2 seat majority. The Tasmanian newspoll should be very fascinating. They are also an older Alp government that is camporatley bad to other states.(maybe even New South Wales).
Plz excuse spelling and gramma lol. in a hurry.
I agree Max, state Labor seem to have lost the plot lately on a number of issues.
Not only has public transport become a joke, they’re making it positively dangerous. Most of the buses from/to Mt Barker in peak periods are now packed solid with standing passengers because the government won’t pay for extra buses. God help those on the first one that crashes at 100K on the SE Freeway!
They’ve also made a pig’s breakfast out of water. We have one of the world’s leading experts on storm water aquifer recharging living here but instead of using his expertise to help solve our water woes they’ve taken the easy, but expensive, desal option which will exacerbate the probable root cause of the lack of water, global warming. According to the expert we could reclaim at least as much water as the plant will produce for a fraction of its cost and with minimal ongoing expenses.
Then there is the outright theft being planned over the new hospital. Seems we start paying extra taxes for it next year – 2008 – even though its likely to be built as a public/private partnership that won’t actually cost the state anything until after 2011/12. So what are the $1 billion+ in extra taxes for?
Then there’s my personal gripe, the shemozzle over the increase in payments for solar generated electricity. They promised payments of 44 cents per KW many months ago and despite the legislation being passed by the parliament it still hasn’t come into effect. However, the ’sunset’ date hasn’t been adjusted, so it appears that the promised 5 year payback will in fact be 4 years 6 months at best, and this assumes they do something this week. To make it even more interesting, ETSA is now taking months instead of days to install the new meters that are required.
However, there is a better than even money chance that the Libs will stuff it up before the next election. The rumoured move of Lord Downer of Mayo to the state sphere being one possibility.
5
Diogenes
From the general tenure of that Pakistani blog there’s hardly anyone who thinks the PPP should just be bequeathed to Bhutto’s son with hubby riding shotgun. As one article I read yesterday put it succinctly, they more resemble the Borgias than any other political dynasty.
It’s a pity that Pakistan has such a corrupt and venal military, as there is no chance for any kind of real democracy to flourish, and the more Washington backs the ’security’ of Musharraf’s military men, the less stable the place becomes.
Benazir was driven to try and get the better of the military, and turned off her past support for the Taliban to curry favour with Washington, who were desperate to get her placed as a secular figure head. Yet again, Washington meddled well beyond its competency and virtually condemned Bhutto to a violent end. Bhutto could only ever have been a fig-leaf for Washington, as real power has always resided in one place in Pakistan’s history, but they preferred that to openly backing Musharraf’s never ending dictatorship for any longer.
When the General sacked the judiciary I really thought the game was up and Bush’s people would have to drop him like a hot potato, but no, they just plowed ahead with their ‘marriage of convenience’ idea, despite it being pretty clear that the General was not for marrying.
Another dead Pakistani politician, another hideously violent crime, and another page turned in the never ending saga of blood and greed that flows across this part of the sub continent.
19
cobber
Thanks for the link.
11 Sorry william they look far better now that my glasses are on and cleaned.
Happy New Year Bludgers!
did my big appreciation blurb on previous thread, so suffice to say that it has been great having this site during the election and (apart from the cricket, which I hate almost as much as John Winston himself), it is great still blogging along.
Enjoy the evening knowing that the old regime is dead and buried and 2008 can only be better than the past 11 dire years.
Best wishes to you all – (even you, Glen.)
Omodei will have real trouble getting elected to a seat in 2009, following the 1v1v changes. The Libs have their leaders in country seats, which makes their focus necessarily more parochial, and less appealing to the city folk. Buswell looks and sounds OK on TV, but what the Libs need is POLICIES. They have to wake up and smell the CO2 and think really hard about how relevant their core beliefs are going to be when their coastal developments are sliding into the Indian Ocean.
Neutrally, Rann could lose in 2010 because of the issues mentioned.
If you are in a state government, you have to get public transport right, especially in the time of high petrol prices. Building a useless tram where there are buses that go down there, having no public transport system say from West Lakes-City and none whatever so ever from the non Noarlunga parts of the South, that alone is a recipe for disaster. I am potentially going to Flinders Uni to study in the new year, and to travel to there on most routes is a 40-kilometre round trip through unrelated parts of town. (Those who live in Adelaide would know what i meant.)
I know this is a specifically Australian site, William, but is there any chance that we could have a US presidential primaries thread?
Ah yes, the vagaries of the Adelaide public transport system. I haven’t been there since the 90s but back then it did seem strange that every bus route had TWO numbers -one travelling one way and one the other. The trains were falling to pieces, ancient diesel rattlers. Have they electrified their metro railway system yet?
Public transport has always been a big winner for Labor in the West. Labor reopened the line to Fremantle which the (finally!) late Charlie Court had closed; Carmen Lawrence oversaw the construction of a new northern railway route and the electrification of the whole metro passenger system; now Allanah McTiernan has finally delivered the southern line all the way to Mandurah, which is one of the country’s fastest-growing regional cities.
Actually, public transport development wasn’t a winner for Carmen, but Labor has ‘owned’ the issue for decades.
35
They have not done it yet.
36
The Mandurah Line opened last week, goes uber-fast too 130km/h.
Plus travel on Day one was completely free systemwide as well
Happy New Year Bludgers, although I won’t be seeing it until some hours after most of you, due to the earth being round and all that.
I agree that the state Liberal parties all look pretty hopeless right now, but as someone noted above, that can change rapidly. If the voters decide they want to chuck one or all of the state Labor governments, they will do so. I disagree with whoever said Ted Baillieu is a moron. He is IMHO the best of the state Lib leaders, and now that Costello has gone he might be allowed to take on Labor without being white-anted by his own party all the time. Maybe.
It is interesting to look at the dynamics of the last four federal changes of government (1975, 1983, 1996, 2007). In each case a failing government was surviving because the opposition was seen to be even worse. But when the failed opposition leader (Snedden, Hayden, Downer, Beazley) was dropped in favour of someone the voters decided was competent and “safe.” (Fraser, Hawke, Howard, Rudd), the polls turned almost at once, and nothing the incumbent government could so was able to turn them back. This is the scenario that might pose a threat to the state Labor governments. Certainly in NSW, WA and Tas they ought on their records to be vulnerable. The trick for the Libs is of course to find acceptable leaders. NSW and Vic may have done so. I don’t know much about the SA guy. Qld, WA and Tas are still pretty hopeless.
Adam, I don’t think Baillieu is a moron, but if he’s the best of the state Lib leaders god help the libs (and why should she?). He’s a hooray-Henry who will always struggle to engage with ordinary punters, AND he is surrounded by a dearth of talent in the Liberal ranks, AND the odious Croger is still around causing trouble, meddling, whispering with the Costello-forces…. I don’t like his chances.
Oops, that would be Kroger. Too close to Tip.
Adam @ 139 [ now that Costello has gone] I’m still not convinced he is really leaving and won’t be until he resigns and cashes the first humungous super cheque.
Next year we will be all Labor in 08.
“WE ARE UNIONISTS, WE’RE GONNA GET YOU”
Sorry. Typing under the influence. After 7 XXXX’s
Adam, are you a Victorian? You must be kidding re Baillieu. He maybe the best of a bad bunch in Victoria but he is a hopeless media performer. Brumby will win the next election I believe and Big Ted will give it way.
Sorry, that should read “apres” not Adam.
No I was right in the first place. Sheesh, and I haven’t even been drinking.
Gary, I think you’re right. I predict that Big Ted will go to the election, lose to Brumby, and bow out. He’s a rich boy and doesn’t have much desire to be a politician (as I read him).
Back to WA for a moment – while Ozymandias is right about the WA Libs sticking with country leaders, this doesn’t mean they can’t win. While it is a uniform 4% needed to win, I can see a nasty swing in the northern suburbs taking out a few seats with the rest picked up on more moderate swings in places like Riverton, the now-expanded Albany, maybe even Fred Reibling, if Mining & Pastoral swing even with the new boundaries.
However, I personally think they face an uphill battle with too many of their MP’s still fighting old battles. I note the Nats have stayed afloat and even moved ahead a bit (noting how they came close to putting even old Tuckey under pressure!) under Grylls, so maybe the key for the Libs will be to modernise their policy book! I remember hearing about Peter Foss between election and finally retiring, freed from Cabinet & party room restrictions suddenly getting a conscience and making a few really good points about policy (especially in relation to indigenous issues). Pity the rest can’t get some of that too…
Happy New Year to all Bludgers; yes, while you are all debauching yourselves as the midnight hour approaches, I’m stuck here working night shift. At least I’ll get holiday penalty loading after midnight, and thanks to the change of government, that isn’t going to be threatened anytime soon! Oh yeah, and thank God for action on global warming, apology to indigenous people, reviewing the Super Hornet contract, rhubarb, rhubarb, …
Thanks to William for his treasure trove of electoral knowledge, and MOST posters for an entertaining and informative year. I wouldn’t say that you have psephology sexy, but time and time again this blog has been an antidote to the palpitations that accompanied every negative headline or press beat-up. I hope I was able to contribute in my modest, spasmodic way.
I also hope more people discover forums like this over the coming years, causing further conniptions to the pompous blowhards of the MSM. Not necessarily a clearer path to the Truth, but at least greater enlightenment beckons.
Happy New Year to all those Poll Bludger’s with daylight saving and the same to all those yet to see one minute past midnight.
Still lurking and reading all your posts.
And a special “Happy New Year” to you William who provide so many of us with an outlet for our collective political expression. Well done!
2008 is going to be an interesting year and I think Kevin 07/08 is going to give the Libs one hell of a big headache, especially the State Branches if he gets a sound working consensus going with the Labor Premiers and turns around some of the problems caused by a lack of Federal funding under Howard.
Some of these State polling figures could start turning southwards for the Libs.
Hey Scorpio, it’s only 10.21 where I sit!
This may be Major Smirnoff talking, but I have the feeling ‘Mate 08′ is going to save the world! (or at least give it a chance to save itself.) As the only western head of government who speaks Mandarin, Rudd can bridge the east-west gap and get some significant action going to reduce carbon emissions and reverse the warming. In 2012 he can then hand over to our first ever female PM and go on to head the UN. I hope.
Thanks for making my year, William and fellow Bludgers.
Happy New Year Poll Bludgers and here’s hoping Bernie Banton is honoured in the next honours list.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22993459-12377,00.html
Happy New Year everyone!
Happy New Year everyone.
Just as a matter of interest, does anyone know if Lose The Election Please is still around – under another name perhaps?
Happy New Year, all.
Happy New Year to William and the Bloggers. (Sounds like a bad garage band!)
Scorpio at #50, I believe you have hit the nail on the head. State Govts get re-elected on the strength of their performance in providing Public Transport, Hospital services, Water, Education and Policing. With the exception of Policing, these policies are all on the Rudd list of things to do vis a vis federal/state relations. They are therefore likely to get big licks of money and expertise thrown at them during 08 and 09. They should be showing signs of improvement just in time for the elections coming due from 09. Those pending elections will concentrate the minds of the Premiers and cause them to be more cooperative than Premiers usually are in dealings with the Feds.
Well, thanks to Ophuph Hucksake (49) I’ve learned my first new word for 2008 – ‘conniptions”. Never heard it before in my life, but checked the dictionary and sure enough there it was.
For anyone else as ignorant as me, it means a temper tantrum.
Happy new year poll-bludgers.
As for State politics, well even the Psychic on Channel Ten didn’t predict that the Libs would win in SA or Victoria. Its one thing for a government to make mistakes, but the opposition has to be electable. In my time in Adelaide so far Liberal leader Hamilton Smith seems like a junior Alexander Downer – unelectable.
But I think WA might be a chance for the Libs – serious errors in government there, corruption, and surely a feeling that, as with Howard federally, WA State Labor can’t claim the credit for the mining boom. WA and NSW are their best chances IMO.
Ophuph Hucksake – love the name.
Darn: My word of 2007 was “brucifixion”, followed closely by “hubricating”.
Gary Bruce: Thanks, but I can’t claim to have invented it. If you (or someone you love) is into motorbikes then you would have probably heard of the cartoon character Fred Gassit. He also coined the phrase, “I blame the fuggin’ gummint!”
A personal credo between 1996-2007.
Adam @ 39, makes some good points. The fact is that any hypothetical State Liberal Governments would not be doing a lot different to what Labor Governments are doing now. Hence there is a large component bandwagon support of soft voters in these figures.
The history of changing governments contains a number of ingredients including time for a change, economic upheavals and incumbent incompetency. However, an especially important ingredient for facilitating the change is “Leadership”. Until the Opposition Party works out who is the “one” they will congregate around and support, then they will never win. This was evident in the March 07 NSW election. Similarly in Victoria, it is clear to all and sundry that the Liberal Party is split between the Baillieau forces and the Kroger/Costello minions.
Federally, the problem for the Libs is even more daunting with any number of candidates promenading their wares and special vision for the future. There is a need for some prominent Liberals to have their careers ended and then a fight between the remaining candidates to identify the top dog. This could take many years!
BTW 1.Thanks to all the PB’s for their kind comments about my adventures at the Melbourne Test. It was a lot a of fun.
BTW 2. I believe I invented “hubricating” one beery Friday night some months go in response to Glen’s never ending use of the word “hubris” during the course of his rambling dissertations.
OMG
my head hurts.
obviously a virus.
Sorry to hear you’ve apparently come down with the dreaded New Year Morning virus, aka the Morning After the Night Before virus, Jen.
For future reference, while alcohol apparently can’t prevent or cure this vile disease, it can mask the physical effects. In other world, it only hurts if you stop drinking!
34 Charlie:Try this site. Its very good. He has done well with his accuracy in the last 2 elections.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
thanks for the advice Mayo.
(Just read the Chaser’s take on 2007 in the Age. Good for a laugh to start the year)
Here’ an expremier giving the voters his favorite salute.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/bligh-follows-sir-johs-lead/2007/12/31/1198949736981.html
Funny summary of election in biblical prose at Crikey:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Crikey-Says/20071221-Crikey-Says.html
Jen and anyone else not feeling too well this morning, here’s something that might help. Meditation:
Jus relax, take a deep breath, and say to yourself slowly repeating, “There is no Liberal Party Government in Australia”. “There is no Liberal Party Government in Australia”. Clears the mind wonderfuly.
great link Chino.
Socrates – you are a wise sage indeed.
it almost worked,
(think about 6 panadeine forte might be even more successful: anyone got any??)
70 Socrates, I prefer “wall-to-wall ALP governments, right across AUSTRALIA”.
Newspolls for Vic & NSW come out once every 2 months, for Qld, SA and WA, once every 3 months. There is no regular Newspoll in Tas; they only poll there on election eve. I’m still waiting for a NSW Newspoll; I’d think there should be one for Nov-Dec; maybe in the next day or so.
Here’s a table showing how state polls compare with Fed election result in that state. Much of these polls would have been done during the Fed election campaign, so this campaign would have had a big influence, as people would be thinking about Fed politics at the time.
Vic, ALP Fed 2PP result 54.3, State Newspoll 60
Qld, 50.4, 59
SA, 52.4, 54
WA, 46.7, 49
ALP 2PP is higher at state levels than in Fed election for that particular state; in Qld and Vic, there’s a huge difference.
Happy New Year all,
And for anyone in Melbourne suffering the 40 degree heat, don’t worry, the cool change has just hit Geelong, it will be here in less than an hour
could be meningitis.
Jen,
Hubricating astertions always works for me.
Indeed GG.
Is that what you call it.
My favorite mantra for meditation and hangover cure is a long, indulgent internal recitation on “H-O-W-A-R-D’-S G-O-N-E”. But you’re right, Jen, a few Fortes were needed this morning.
How’s Nelson’s self-serving letter in the GG about submarines? And Pyne’s call for Hicks to apologise? Dickheads!
Laura Chipp whistling in the wind?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/poor-democracy-without-democrats/2007/12/31/1198949742069.html
Lord D said
The first polls in Jan will be interesting. I’d expect, with the Liberals lossing the advantage of incumbancy at a federal level, the gap between state and federal 2PP in QLD and Vic will narrow.
77
That lament from Laura has a certain air to it, and reminds me of JWH’s forlorn request to the camera asking for the electorate’s kindness to re-elect him. There’s more than a whiff of decay and a touch of emotional blackmail, as in how will democracy in Australia ever truly function without us?
From Kernot’s defection to the Damsel in Doc Martens and beyond, Democrats have been on a one way ride to oblivion, and to promise us that they will somehow awake from their sleep walking over the cliff and become something better and more appealing is theatrical nonsense.
They’re history, we know it, and she probably does too.
KR, wonder if Howard will turn up in Canberra every now and then with suit and tie on ready to start work like an expremier of Queensland was known to do in Brisbane long after he had retired.
Happy New Year everyone.
I have learnt so much here it’s been great fun.
I have two questions.
The first is how do you pronounce Omodei.
And the second is could the next Victorian and Federal election be held on the same day given that they will be due very close to each other.
I believe it’s pronounced O-MO-DIE.
Steve, I think JWH should thank his lucky stars that we don’t treat ex-Prime Ministers like they do in Pakistan!
On another subject, I just watched Russert’s recent interview with Mike Huckabee and found it amusing that someone who professes not to believe in evolution should defend his ‘pro-life’ stance against abortion by claiming that it is ’scientfically’ true that life begins at conception. It seems he likes to pick and choose his own definitions about just what ’science’ is.
Funny world, ain’t it?
Western Australia is the weakest link so to speak, The Labor governments in both Victoria and South Australia are on more stable ground. I dunno about NSW or Queensland.
Laura Chipp says the Democrats need to work harder to sell their policies to the masses. At least she does not describe working people as rednecks as the Greens do.
Both parties consider the people who they need to convince to vote for them as an other. It is my belief that neither of these elitist parties will figure largely in our nation’s political future.
84 Newspoll released the latest Queensland polling on 20 Dec 2007. It’s easy to look up on their site. While there I found their latest newsletter.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/system/files//f1/o87//Summer%202007%20Newsletter.pdf
84 Tristan, I would think that Labor in Qld is pretty safe for at least one more electoral cycle. Beattie/Bligh have handled the massive water crisis pretty well, Anna gives the impression that she is attuned to the needs of the voters. The opposition are a farce a la keystone cops. Biggest danger is that Bligh govt falls victim to hubris
(sorry, couldn’t help that one) due to the pathetic nature of said HM Opposition.
The latest in breaking news: Kev has fixed global warming in Queensland, another day of around 25C and more rain, absolutely beautiful weather all over the last week, albeit windy at times. Kev promises relief for Vic and SA, but seems quite happy to let Western Australia fry! Serves them right I say.
The latest polls in Iowa are very tight on both sides of the political fence. Going to be an interesting year.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html
85 Turning Worm
Strange commentary – not sure where you get the “calling working people rednecks idea from” – care to elaborate? And elitist? Isn’t that just another term of abuse that dear old Piers & co like to toss at people they don’t agree with? You should provide some more commentary.
As to Laura Chipp, well, I kinda hope the Democrats keep at it as they have in the past been a reasonable mediator of a set of policies now lost to the Liberal Party – they might like to consider themselves a centre-left party, but in fact they’re policies retain echoes of liberal social-justice claims with a renewal of the economic contract – capitalism with a caring face if you will (and no, I most certainly do NOT mean Maggie!!!). This would seem to make them essentially different from the ALP & Liberal parties now, although Latham was arguing this line (something Tanner’s seems to have now taken up).
89
steve
It’s so bad that Mike Bloomberg is repackaging himself as an ‘independent messiah’ to save the poor conservatives from such a shockingly bad set of choices. (Funny, but last time I looked, dear Mike had backed everything GWB had ever said or done!)
US politics is a wonderful show, but is it democracy?
92 Stop it KR, I could hardly stop crying with laughter when I read the stories of people urging Mike Bloomberg to run for president. The place certainly has become a very funny circus.
http://www.mayormikeforpresident.com/
First 2008 prediction:
first Rudd minister to have his head lopped?
Stephen “rooster” Conroy.
This all round dunderhead will do his usually inept job with the awkward and complex Communications portfolio and will fairly quickly be moved on.
With the “new” Labour make-up now clearly less factional and reliant on talent and performance, dolts like Conroy won’t last long.
94 HarryH Compared to many in the previous government he looks like a genius.
HarryH,
Mindless abuse tells us more about you than Conroy.
Fill in the gaps if you want to have a discussion.
ChrisB, forget the previous Government. They are soooooo 2007.
Conroy is my prediction for 1st ministerial scalp. Plenty of pressure from the talent waiting in the wings.
It may take a month or a year but changes will come, and it will be decided on performance and talent.
My prediction is Conroy, the factional talentless hack, will fail with Communications and be outski……maybe Maxine will be ready sooner rather than later.
Anyway its a New Years Day prediction.
anyone else want to name their pick for 1st scalp?
One of the odd consequences of the disparity in terms, is that once in a while, a state votes twice at a federal election before the next state election. Eg NSW in this cycle.
I wonder how this happenchance, if at all, might affect voting behaviour?
HarryH is obviously an embittered Victorian Leftist. Yes we know you guys hate Conroy because he outsmarts you every single time and makes Kim Carr look like a fat lazy useless Stalinist bungler – not hard since that’s what he is. Anyone who thinks Conroy is or will be incompetent in anything he does is clearly ignorant or stupid. Ask Bob Sercombe, Gavan O’Connor and Anne Corcoran.
Stewart J, Piers & co are part of one elite. The Greens are part of another. Either camp should be avoided in this here working man’s paradise. My post is based on an impression I have formed of the Greens after a few months of reading the posts of various Greens candidates and supporters on this site. I am not one for pointing fingers at individuals although their posts are there to be searched for anyone who is interested.
HarryH, I agree with you on Conroy. Without going into too much detail on his defence of the Labor policy of filtering the internet, as I know what kind of dog-whistle that may set off. I was struck by how much he reminded me of Tony Abbott when I saw him on the news.
93
steve
Yeah, a billionare’s blog site of fans in love with his great civil liberties agenda! Made me laugh too.
Almost as much as one descritpion of Rudy I came across on one blog: 9ui11iani
That takes the cake!
Things just get better in Pakistan with reports of Bhutto being about to tip the bucket on “proof” of upcoming electoral fraud.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/01/01/2129959.htm
Are we having predictions for the Iowa primaries yet? If so, I’m going for Clinton and McCain to win the first round based on concerns about Middle East stability.
101
Diogenes
Sorry to be pedantic, but Iowa have what is known as ‘caucuses’. Weren’t you here the other day?
But apart from that, I really doubt the Pakistan assasination will have much bearing in Iowa, and besides, McCain’s polling pretty badly there, but much better in New Hampshire (where they do have ‘primaries’!)
Happy New Year!
82 on state elections vs federal timing, methinx most s/t electoral laws have to shift their voting day if they are called for the same day. It happened with ACT election once, ‘berrans voted two consecutive Sats. Not to mention, the confusion of having both as 6-week campaigns running simultaneously. ACT now has 4-year fixed terms starting from 2004 on second Sat in October, so next is Oct 2008.
ACT is stable Labor-Minority govt – so at this stage, barring a scandal is unlikely to fall to the latest unknown nobody Liberal whats-his-name-again
Diogenes, here’s the ‘on the ground’ local media polling from a few hours ago:
DES MOINES — The highly anticipated final poll from The Des Moines Register is out and it has some surprising news: Senator Barack Obama appears to have widened his lead over his Democratic rivals, with Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton coming in second and former Senator John Edwards a close third.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee came in first, with 32 percent of those polled, to 26 for Mitt Romney. John McCain came in third with 13 percent.
I’ve had money on Obama and Huckabee for a while so I’m biased! LOL
102 KR- Having reviewed all the available evidence, I humbly defer to your superior knowledge, although I think the Bhutto assassination is bigger news in the US than here.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/davidnason/index.php/theaustralian/comments/tragedy_recasts_the_race
On a note with less hubris, I came across this quote today which reminded me of the Liberals. It’s crude but effective.
“Simple arithmetic will tell you how much you lost by but only your ass can tell you how bad the whipping was”.
KR @ 84 – [Steve, I think JWH should thank his lucky stars that we don’t treat ex-Prime Ministers like they do in Pakistan!] True, but I wouldn’t mind the odd bit of biff during Question Time like they do it in South Korea!
On U.S. politics:
Obama will win the Dem candidacy
It doesn’t matter who wins the Repug candidacy.
The people want change. Obama represents as much change as they are allowed.
Hillary represents the 4th successive generation of the Bush/Clinton criminal cartel and she will go down.
The people have been temporarily awoken and for a very short time won’t be moulded by the MSM.
They will rebel….within the set parameters of course.
Obama is change. Obama will be President.
105
Diogenes
You’re right that Pakistan is big news, I mean Bush virtually stacked his entire ‘war on terrorism’ thing on Musharraf rounding up the bin Laden/Taliban gangs, not to mention the billions they’ve poured into the dictators coffers (there’s another story!), but politically in Iowa? Nup, it won’t be what drags them out in the snow to stand around in cold halls chanting and cheering. Sorry, it’s Iowa we’re talking about here, not Washington DC!
Just a few days before Bhutto’s assasination, the NY TImes did a big story on how the US State Dept guys went up into Warziristan and looked for how well all their dough was being spent. Ah, the shock was they found lots of old rifles and a handful of shells ‘protecting’ the borders. Ooops, where do you think those billions went?
Ask the Taliban, they might have a few ideas.
106
MayoFeral
I recall that Taiwan has a pretty ‘robust’ debating style too! Maybe we could have some that as well.
Happy New Year!
Basil Fawlty (#88)… I think that you have over-estimated the QLD opposition.
To be fair however, all that they appear to lack are policies; purpose; unity; stability; leadership and talent.
The state electoral redistribution is also likely, in my view, to see two or three National Party seats disappear and be ‘replaced’ by seats in the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast areas, which will presumably, but not necessarily, be Liberal v Labor contests. Other demographic changes suggest that the National Party seats of Beaudesert and Lockyer will fall to the ALP, barring too big an overall anti-labor swing.
It will be interesting to see if in these circumstances, the Liberals are finally willing to bite the bullet and go all out try to head the Nationals in terms of seats won, even at the expense of ‘throwing’ the next election by engaging in ‘three corner contests’.
One issue as I understand it, is that the coalition parties have already agreed to contest an even number of seats next time, which (ignoring the fact that there are an odd 89 seats in QLD) means that as the Liberals contested 49 last time and the Nationals 40, that the Liberals should actually contest 4 less seats next time than the did last time. I see more troubles ahead for the ‘dynamic duo’.
KR- Given the propensity the GOP has for choosing mindless cretins as their presidential candidate, presumably allowing them to install power-hungry neocons into important positions to act autonomously with complete impunity, I would be pretty comfortable with Huckabee being their choice as he seems to fit the bill perfectly. At the risk of being inflammatory, I think evolution-deniers are right up there with Holocaust-deniers in credibility.
Happy New Year!
RE Queensland
labors’s vote in Brisbane is excellent I think they hold all but 2 seats
For there to be a change of Govt there must be more seats won by the libs than the nats. but the nats hold more seats currently than the libs
this is their problem which will still be there for maybe the next 2 terms as well
Anna Bligh almost cannot lose
re 99 Turning Worm
Well, as one of those Green supporters I’m a little bemused by being dubbed “elitist”, especially as this has become a term used to abuse anyone who puts a non-conservative spin on national or global affairs (you know the line – “inner-city latte-sipping elites”). While it might be just your impression but I’d prefer a more substantive reply.
As to the comment about rednecks previously – I am genuinely interested because that (calling someone a redneck) has cropped up in too many conversations, yet I’ve also worked with farmers, “westies” etc (ie; those often labeled redneck) over the years and have often found that once you get past the barriers they are often interesting & good people to yarn to (but not all – just like some inner-city-latte-elite’s really are shallower than a saucer).
I’ve often thought its a “tribal grouping” thing – you look different, talk different, act different, therefore you can’t be like me so must be excluded in some way. “Rednecks” might be how some people describe those who have a particular style, expression and activity as a way of creating an “other”. BTW, rednecks were what Boers called the British in South Africa – cos they used to get burnt in the fierce sun. But it was also about the British failure to adapt, ignorance of the country and people, and that creation of an “other” again.
But there you go, sounding like some sort of over-educated i-c-l-s-e again. Which I’m not (too much milk in latte – blech!).
Stewart J, if you must persist,
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/776?cp=8
please see post 710
Am I not as an observer to draw a conclusion from that post that the candidate in question thinks himself above the voters in his electorate?
TurningWorm, even if it’s true that Bill W thinks himself above the voters in his electorate (and this is debatable), it doesn’t follow that all Greens consider themselves to be better than others.
104
Rain
‘ACT is stable Labor-Minority govt – so at this stage, barring a scandal is unlikely to fall to the latest unknown nobody Liberal whats-his-name-again’
Actually I think it’s a labor majority govt
MALCOLM Fraser has reopened his long-running feud with John Howard, accusing Mr Howard of opposing Australia’s large intake of refugees after the Vietnam War.
Mr Fraser claims Mr Howard approached him in a corridor following a cabinet meeting in May 1977 and said: “We don’t want too many of these people. We’re doing this just for show, aren’t we?”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22993100-601,00.html
82 & 104
Section 394 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act prohibits the holding of a state election or referendum on the same day as a federal election ‘without the authority of the Governor-General’.
Des Moines Register poll has Democrat voter preferences at -
Barack Obama 32%
Hillary Clinton 25%
John Edwards 24%
Good for Obama. As a a single state it’s pretty insignificant on it’s own but as they say in the US, “momentum is everything”.
I’m basically with Harry H on Conroy – it’ll be very interesting to see how he shapes up. That’s not to say his factional opponent, The Right Honourable Mr K. Carr, is anything special, unless of course Julia thinks he is, in which case he’s just fantastic – and when can I start my new job in DEEWR?
Ahh, doesn’t everyone just have their price in this jaded century?
Kevvie’s going fine so far – if he goes anywhere near doing anything substantial about the national hospital crisis and climate change ( with Penny already doing well in The Battle of Bali) he’ll just about rule for a decade.
I think he has shown very good judgement in most, if not all, of the senior cabinet appointments, especially Wong and Faulkner. I just love Faulkner as ‘Special Minister of State’ ( SMOS) – so Yes Minister – if the public service tells Kevvie one story and SMOS finds out it’s rubbish ( which will be part of his job), then that head or heads will roll, public servants or ministers etc. And that’s just as it should be. A serious ’search and destroy’ man is Faulkner – and doesn’t every new Government need one? The PM certainly looks like he has thought long and hard about the transition to Government -and it’s gone great so far.
I’ve heard that the previous regime even wiped the hard drives of many government computers, to cover their nefarious activities and sabotage the incoming regime. Mr Rudd should hold a Judicial Inquiry about this issue. I’m sure there will be plenty of public servants just salivating at the opportunity to dump on the previous regime – I know some of these people and they are very keen to air the previous regime’s ‘dirty laundry’ in the IR portfolio in particular.
This computer wipeout, if true, is just scandalous – and throw in a Royal Commission on AWB. Downer’s arse needs to be nailed to the wall, along with the Rodent on this issue. Let’s see if the new regime can’t find a “Petrov” lurking somewhere, with links to the Coalition.
But to return to the positive – JWH of course soon found out that too many ministerial heads rolling too early is not good – just reshuffle the duds to lesser portfolios in the time-honoured fashion, until the factions agree to replace them.
But finally to unfinished 07 business – I have attempted to pay Mr Bowe what I believe I promised ( $20 for every ALP seat above 80). Last I saw ALP had 83, so have sent $60 to support Dr Bowe (if doctorate not yet conferred, then hopefully it’s just a formality – I have friends who have suffered to attain doctorates. I try to appreciate their ’suffering’. They are without exception persons of courage and determination.)
Great Work Mr Bowe and Happy “Mates 08″ to all You Bludgers,
Cheers,
The Spaz.
Diogenes
You have to hand it to the Republicans for their capacity to pick duds, but they also have this amazing capacity to not notice it’s a dead horse until it’s well and truly stinking! Bush is one such, and the problem is that anyone who wants to follow in his neoconservative footsteps will be carrying a lot of baggage after this last abysmal presidency.
I think nationally McCain is the only credible candidate, but he’s too old, and Huckers will get trashed by any of the three serious Democrat candidates (or even Dodds or Biden for that matter). There’s a colossal collapse of Republican impetus thanks to Bush’s shockingly corrupt and inept administration so they kind of know that whoever they put up will get trounced. It’s become a matter of internal politics, ie who will lose with the right constituency least damaged.
But it’s a great show. Bring it on, as the man said!
But is Hiliary any better
KR @ 122
I wouldn’t underestimate (or is that overestimate?) the US voter. They did elect George W twice.
Although it seems to us that the Democrats have 3 quality candidates, each are vulnerable to attacks from the right (for different reasons) and it’s not going to be a shoo-in.
But you are right, it is going to be a great show.
If McCain is the only serious contender for the Republican ticket, then the Southern hicks won’t turn up to vote on election day.
Consider how much more complicated our hobby would be in America – over there it’s not just how people will vote, but who will vote.
KR if you keep backing winners at this rate you are going to have to get your dry cleaners to mend in a deeper pocket.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/01/obama-rides-wave-of-lates_n_79082.html
124
Winston
I think the correct term here is “misunderestimate” as coined by the great word mangler himself, George W Bush.
netvegetable:
I think that’s what is going to happen: lots of Republicans will have to stay home in November and the rest will have to hold their nose. Essentially there is a major fracturing occuring between the religious right and the secular conservatives, and what Rove once brought together is now rent assunder.
It’s funny, but I read one conservative who said that what America needs now is a strong christian leadership! Crikey, I thought that’s what they supposedly had now! The loony religious right always get suckered into thinking they can overturn the constitution and the Republicans were (once) masters of seducing them with this notion. But all is lost now, and the party is tearing itself apart.
(When Ann Coulter is disembowelling the Southern Baptist Huckabee because he supported the “consitutional right to sodomy” ya just kinda know it’s going to be ugly! Hahahaha!!)
Contrary to some of the views propsgated here and elsewhere, Steve Conroy is a genius. He is my early tip for Politician of the year. He has united the right wing nut bags and the lefterati with his announcement on the ISP filters. World Peace is imminent. Oh joy!
Of course they all say it is evidence of some vast left/right (choose your brand)conspiracy that will deny unfettered access to bestiality videos for minors. This is a bad thing apparently. Armegeddon cannot be far away with this much State interference..
With so much “Lerv”, Conroy must be doing something right.
http://timblair.net/ee/index.php/weblog/comments/rudd_flanders/
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/12/31/new-govt-same-as-the-old-except-worse/
imagine if they did this in australia?
http://au.news.yahoo.com/080101/19/15esi.html
Turning Worm at 115
Ah, but Bill W is a worker himself – an AMWU Shop delegate to boot – (and see his other posts prior to the announcement of the election). Yes, his use of the word redneck may be open to misunderstanding, but maybe he was also describing what I think of as the “Shire mentality” here in NSW – a sort of homogeneous, white, ignorant (as in uneducated) and unthinking group mentality which is quite exclusive – it excludes others (note the Cronulla riots). I also think of the Alan Jones’, John Laws’, Piers’, Malcolm’s, Andrew’s etc who spout unthinking, attacking, rhetoric designed to engage people solely at a gut level.
Perhaps, though, it is also a long bow to describe the whole party from this one instance, or from over-eager individuals?
Having followed a black smoke belching truck for some minutes this morning, the sooner they bring in similar laws here the better, cobber. I’m still coughing like mad to rid my remaining fully functional lung from the crud.
The fine particulates emitted by engines, especially diesels, are much worse than cigarette smoke and nearly as deadly as wood smoke.
Further evidence to be wary of electronic voting:
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/010108L.shtml
I see John Edwards has no Australian supporters (perhaps apart from Andrew Leigh), despite being the furthest left of the big three and as a white guy from the south being a strong presidential candidate.
And further Bhutto Report: Musharraf planned to fix elections
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/010108Z.shtml
Na, on this Bill’s actually right, it’s truly bogan central, a wasteland.
Bill fits right in
Stewart J, for as long as the parties who wish to claim the left, continue to look down upon the very people they should be scrambling to win back from the conservatives, the political discourse in this country will never progress.
The post I highlighted is not the sole basis for my opinion on the Greens, just one of the more provocative examples. Forgive me for not having the will to conduct a forensic examination of every post made by a Greens supporter over the course of the campaign. I would have thought the Greens would be doing that work themselves as part of their post-election analysis, as should all parties. The post I highlighted serves to demonstrate a pattern of behaviour which I have observed from the Greens, a pattern which your last post feeds into quite nicely.
mayo feral 131
I reckon it’d be great – cars out of the city.
I wouldn’t bag only diesels though, petrol exhausts might not produce the same plumes of smoke a diesel does, but its becausethe particulates coming out petrol exhaust is smaller and less visible. this is doesn’t mean they dont exist or are less toxic, infact they are lighter and more freeborne in the atmosphere.
crikey are people still bagging the greens???? when does this argument finish?
Turning Worm @135
Sorry, not providing evidence and a vague “impression” doesn’t cut it for me. I make my comments regarding “Rednecks” in the interest of understanding anyone with a different viewpoint to mine, and being able to have a dialogue with them, not simply to vilify or glorify them. And I’m not entirely sure that eulogising the “voters” is any different from the old cry of “the silent majority” – uncheckable, untestable and useful only to try and back questionable claims.
IF, however, you are instead referring to a perceived tone in published material (and not off-hand remarks from one or two individuals) then fair enough – there is a tendency to over-intellectualise our material and make it inaccessible (or at least, less accessible) to many people. That IS part of any election review – and can include ill-conceived or poorly explained policy. But I wont resile from defending policy and attitudes that say exclusion, bigottry, ignorance, homophobia and violence-as-first-resort are issues that are detrimental to social living.
Is TurningWorm just another name for MelbCity / SenateWatch?
I have a dumb and irrelevant question to ask before hitting the hammock this afternoon (to travel back to Abu Ghraib Prison in a book by a psychology professor about how and why it happened, I am expecting Bush and Rumsfelt to figure prominently).
When Howard was in and Barnaby Joyce et al were blocking his legislation in the senate, could Howard still have called a double dissolution, despite having control of the senate? Obviously he couldn’t politically do it but could he have constitutionally?
Re: Green elitism
The problem I think with the Greens is that their policies are just a little too “out there” for many voters to stomach, and this is not helped by the rather petulant and elitist way that some (not all!) of the party members act (I’m looking at you, Kerry Nettle). This is the reason that they’ll never be a constructive third-party in the same fashion as the Democrats (disclaimer: I am a Democrat supporter).
What it boils down to, is that people like my grandmother, my boss, and my co-workers have about 0% chance of ever voting Green. Therefore, there is no real incentive for the Greens to market themselves to my grandmother and my boss, which creates a cycle of irrelevancy. Green support is strong in some demographics (including my own), but unless the party expands its support base outside of this, they will never be more than a fringe third-party force.
On the other hand, even if my grandmother and my boss don’t agree wholeheartedly with the policies of the Dems, they can at least sympathise with the general aims of the party (“Keeping the b*stards honest”). Prior to the Meg Lees debacle, the Dems never really alienated anybody, which kept their potential support base broad, even if they only ever polled strongly for the Senate. It was therefore good policy for the big parties to work with the Dems, to stop people like my grandma and my boss from bleeding their away from the big parties.
This is not going to happen with the Greens. The existing support base is rusted on, and the potential for pinching new voters from the majors is limited.
Craig 141, I am not usually into soccer type scores, but all I can say is Australian Greens 20- Australian Democrats 1. (both state and federal MPs). The Australian Democrats alienated me BIGTIME when they preferenced Family First at the 2004 Federal election.
the Greens are Extreme debate again….
it’s true: we eat children.
That’s right , Jen !!!!! What is your favourite recipe?
sauteed lightly with a crisp green (organic of course) salad.
Delicious and SO ELITIST !!!!!
121
BaztheSpaz Says: “I’ve heard that the previous regime even wiped the hard drives of many government computers, to cover their nefarious activities …”
Baz if that lot were up-to-form in their competency then it is highly likely that they have just Deleted the files – any semi-competent pc guru will be able to UNdelete any such files as they will be marked as deleted but not permanently erased
Geoff Robinson @ 133 – So far I haven’t taken much notice of the US elections, but back in 2004 I thought Edwards was the one candidate that would and, more importantly, could undo the enormous damage the neocons have done to the system of government, return the country to constitutional rule, and get it totally out of Iraq.
My feeling is that Clinton doesn’t have the inclination, much less the willpower, to really clean out the stable. Nor do I see her as being capable of taking the lead on the many issues confronting the world, especially greenhouse/climate change. Obama I don’t know enough about though he’s making at least some of the right noises. On the Republican side, the main candidates all seem to be trying to out do Shrub in the looney tunes stakes.
But whoever wins, you have to wonder about an electoral system that will see candidates collectivelly spend more than a billion dollars.
141 [Prior to the Meg Lees debacle, the Dems never really alienated anybody]
Yes they did. The Democrats were formed by a former Liberal Minister who was one of the biggest supporters of the Vietnam War and was Minister for the Army or somesuch during the war. Alienating anybody who does not want to be associated with any branch or descendant of the Liberal party was there from the day of the formation of this Liberal Party offshoot.
yes a bit of hot weather and most of my Greens have bolted and gone to seed.
my Greens are wilted,
although still elite happily.
Diogenes @ 140 – I don’t know for sure, but our constitution was written on the assumption that the Senate would be a states house, not a party house, so I assume the party affiliations of those doing the blocking wouldn’t have been considered important.
Stewart J, I’m not trying to eulogise anyone, just lamenting the abandonment of the concept of solidarity by a party which considers itself to be left-wing. It seems the differences are not so great between conservatives and conservationists, they both have a clear view of the role of an underclass.
An interesting piece on “the little red schoolbook” http://www.powerhousemuseum.com/collection/database/?irn=354431&search=red&images=&c=&s=
The interesting thing is at the time of its release in Australia mr democrat himself don chipp was the customs minister.
Thankyou cobber! A little bit of history in the early afternoon!
I’m a Q’lander currently living in Melbourne. The Labor government here are a mob of incompetents. Bracks did OK mainly due to the even more hopeless Libs and now the boring Brumby is in the top job. I believe the Libs can take government next time if they can find a new, capable leader or else give Big Ted Baillieu some lessons in media management. Brumby has as much personality as a dead fish and he really turns people off. In my opinon, Victoria is broke – Labor hides the real financial situation but the place is decrepit. The last, new suburban railway line in Melbourne was opened in 1930!! 82% of people drive to work because public transport is crap. Industry is closing to go offshore and there is nothing to replace it except tourism and the ridiculous ‘events’ such as the Formula One race that Victoria hosts and loses millions in the exercise. Victoria’s finances are kept afloat by gambling and the extortionate rate of stamp duty on residential real estate sales. Would you belive that an average first home buyer in Victoria pays about $20,000 in stamp duty – in Qld it is zilch. The Libs have a real chance to beat Labor, the task is not that great.
Diogened @ 140. In broad terms all that is required is that the Senate twice reject a piece of legislation twice passed by the House of Reps. A more exact explanation can be found in s57 of the Constitution – that document that all Australians revere but few appear to have read.
150 jen i exagerated, but the corriander has gone and got that spindly look.
152 turning worm you seem bitter. how is it you think the greens have more in common with the libs? how do you think by way of policy the greens have a “clear view of the role of an underclass”
Thanks for the tanty Alex. Unfortunately the facts above show Labor in Victoria at 60% TPP. Any more dissatisfaction and we will become a one party state.
Plus, our weather is better than Queensland’s anyway.
If Iemma privatises the power industry in NSW I’m voting for Fatty O’Barrell.
and off topic:
Here’s a wonderful reason to save $6.6 billion already (Swan has to find $20billion in savings):
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22992942-31477,00.html
getting on the bad side of the current administration is a plus my book…
And how ironic, after ‘96 there was Bomber Beazley and the $9 billion black hole, and now after ‘07 there’s Admiral Nelson and his very own personal $6.6 billion dud super hornet black hole!
Chip’s main political roles are included here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Chipp#Political_career
Turning Worm @152
Well, I’m not entirely sure that the concept of solidarity HAS been abandoned, but I’d like your take on how it has been. I know that a lot of Greens here in NSW were involved in such things as YR@W (as was Bill W too), not just because it effected them, but because it effected all working people. I know for a fact that we’ve campaigned on workers comp issues in NSW & WA, with the test (as it will be for ALP changes to WorkChoices) being: will changes improve the material conditions of workers. I know this sounds workerist, but it is an attempt to get both ALP & Libs to focus on the social outcomes of changes not just the economic outcomes.
And I wonder if what you are actually seeing is the identification of “classes” (in all their mixes) by Greens, and their attempt to overcome those class barriers. The issue then is tactic not strategy perhaps?
Does anyone know when the two party preferred result (Labor vs Lib/Nat) will be known for the seat of Melbourne and if that result will affect the overall two party preferred result?
Alex 155 , your comments are very interesting about Victoria, but PLEASE dont think that public transport is only neglected there. It is everywhere! The Car rules! Watch politicians fall over themselves to THROW money at the car industry . Weekly , monthly, yearly public transport tickets should be tax deductible. You are lucky in Victoria that you can buy those kinds of tickets. Here in South Australia , ticketing is a total rip-off! You can buy a daily ticket at huge expense or all other tickets are only 2 hours worth.
Please dont blame stamp duty as such. Get rid of all the tax perks for investment properties and some sanity will return to property prices.
Stewart J, I think our conversation just disappeared up it’s own orifice. I reckon you can discern may take on how it has been by my previous posts.
Good day to you comrade.
And good day to you too, Turning Worm.
Alex McDonnel,
On what do you base your opinion that Victoria is broke? The government has run a substantial budget surplus every year since it was elected. Give some evidence please.
Queensland is subsidised by Victorian GST payments, so it can afford to have lower state taxes. In any case, the Victorian Government has cut taxes as a percentage of GSP by more than $2 billion.
I don’t see the incompetence of which you speak. In education, I see significant improvements on the situation that the Labor inherited:
Improving the primary PTR from 17.2:1 in 1999 to 16.0:1 in 2006 (after the Liberals had worsened it);
Improving the secondary PTR from 12.6:1 in 1999 to 12.0:1 in 2006 [or 11.9:1, depending on which government source document you believe] (after the Liberals had worsened it);
Setting up the Victorian Institute of Teaching (after the Liberals had abolished the teacher registration boards);
Restoring teacher representation to principal selection panels (after the Liberals had remove dit on thunder the hilarious concept of ‘provider capture’);
Providing VCAL as an alternative to VCE;
Dumping SOSE and restoring history and geography as traditional disciplines within the humanities (after the Liberals had introduced the trendy mess of SOSE);
Lifting the ban on teachers speaking out on education (after the Liberals had put in place a ministerial order to deny freedom of speech to teachers);
Instituting a high-standard reporting system across the state that provides parents with specific information on much their children have progressed each year (after the Liberals had brought in ‘beginning’, ‘consolidating’ and ‘established’ as reporting categories);
Employing an additional 5,193 teachers between 1999 and 2006 (after the Liberals had removed almost 9,000);
Staffing primary schools to allow a maximum class size of 21 pupils in prep to grade 2 (after the Liberals had used dishonourable retrospective legislation to remove legally enforceable limits on class sizes);
Investing $1.4 billion in capital spending on schools (after Liberal neglect);
Committing to rebuild every school in the state, with a down-payment of $1.9 billion in the current term of government (after Liberal neglect).
I do not claim perfection as Labor still pays teachers the lowest salaries in the country and it has not restored the teachers stolen from secondary schools, but its record is unarguably better than that of its predecessors.
Outside of education, we have the constitutional protection of the auditor-general and the constitutional entrenchment of reform of the Legislative Council, a reform the Liberals promised in 1973 but never carried out.
Public transport is a mess, but, despite the huge subsidies paid to it, hardly anyone uses it, so the political impact is not so great.
I think it very unlikely that the Liberals will win in 2010, because they have not done the work necessary and, while the time for blaming the last Liberal Government for anything that is wrong with the state has gone, people still remember what it was like and do not want it back. The challenge for the Liberals is to be different from their past record, and to be so credibly.
When will the question of equitable distribution (of federally collected taxes) to the states be achieved? As I understand it Victoria & NSW are currently subsidising the other states – including-rolling-in-resources Queensland and WA. When bagging the NSW & Vic governments for being addicted to gambling taxes, it may be worth bearing this mind.
158 Artie B- The way that constitutions are revered by the public is a source of continual annoyance for me, more so in the US than here. There seems to be some belief that just because its in the constitution that it must be right. Constitutions are drafted by politicians and lawyers on a committee basis and there is no intrinsic reason why they can’t be completely flawed. I doubt that anyone can name the people who wrote ours but its viewed as a semi-religious document and is almost infallible. And even if they got lucky and put together a few great people to write it, many great people have stuffed things up completely eg Oliver Wendell Holmes was a big fan of eugenics.
PS I’m not accusing you of this!
Diogenes @ 171.
If you were you would be wrong! I hold it in no great esteem. People might revere it less if they read it more. I find that on the whole Americans are much better informed about their constitution than Australians are as to theirs.
The question needs to be asked:
Why do State Liberal governments keep losing to average State Labor governments?
Who’s definition of ‘average’ Hoo Hoo? That is the first problem.
davo @ 161 – I’d take the claim that abandoning Horatio’s toys will upset Shrub with a very large dollop of salt. In the end, business is business. The only one likely to be really p***ed off is Andrew Peacock. Don’t know what his commission is on the deal, but it’s probably more than you or I will see in our lifetime!
IME, the place you find the least amount of constructive thinking is in ‘think tanks’ I note that while the bloke quoted is afraid of the consequences if we cancel Nelson’s folly, he is at the same time urging the government to put the JSF order on hold. If the Americans are going to be unhappy about loosing a $6.6 billion deal then how will they react to the possiblity of a $16+ billion contract going belly-up? Strangely, he doesn’t appear to see the latter being a problem?
As for the the proposed power sell-off, there are few South Aussie who’d be happy about ours having been privatised. Reliability of supply seems to have dropped in direct proportion to the price increases. And most of us are fed up with power company sales reps knocking on our doors in the early evenings.
Non-spectacular, slow. Take your pick. Make your perception whatever you want.
And for answers to this, no more partisan stuff and no more about David Hicks.
He’s got a control and gag order, just leave it at that.
Shrub. Do you mean Snrub. As in “I like the way Snrub thinks.”
Looks like this might keep running as a general thread. Melbourne Federal polling analysis has a new thread.
For those who’ve been following the Bhutto saga, and aren’t familiar with the details of her family’s venality and theft of Pakistan’s assets, then this 1998 article by John Burns of the NY Times is a pretty good read. Whatever sympathies one may have had for the charming Benazir, honesty and integrity were certainly not qualities she deserved any brownie points for:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B0CE5D91F30F93AA35752C0A96E958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1
HooHoo @ 173,
Trick question???
There is no such thing as a “State Liberal” Government.
“Public transport is a mess, but, despite the huge subsidies paid to it, hardly anyone uses it, so the political impact is not so great.”
I hate that argument so much! In an age of global warming people should be using public transport, but they don’t because the Labor government is pathetically not investing enough in it. I would much rather see a new line built and new trains brought in than another “My baby takes the morning train” jingle. Honestly, the Labor government has no clue when it comes to public transport and have not done anything constructive since they’ve come into office. Report and report shows that Melbourne is losing its liveability tag by appalling traffic congestions on its main roads, but if people were encouraged to catch public transport under constructive government intiatives, then we would not have this problem.
I don’t think Brumby has the personal appeal of Bracks and I would be happy – and certainly not surprised – to see him go. I honestly think Baillieu is in with a chance. He has so improve his media savvy, but if he can come up with some forward-thinking, inspiring policies, he is definitely in with a chance, despite what the polls may say. I mean, really, is anyone who is polled 2 years out from the next state election really have a solid idea on who they are going to vote for at the next election and why.
Glenn Robinson @133 and HarryH @ 108,
The Democratic Nomination is probably locked up for either Clinton or Obama due to their massive levels of megacorporation campaign funds, which Edwards has refused.
Thus beholden to the Megacorps for their election (and re-election in 2012), neither Clinton nor Obama will make significant reforms in American domestic policies (universal health care being one of the most urgent, if Michael Moore is correct).
Like Rudd and Brown, both Clinton and Obama will continue to pursue most of the foreign policy blunders of the Bush/Howard/Blair axis, notwithstanding the gradual drawing down of their Iraq War troop levels. One example is Afghanistan, where a repressive, stable, government under the fanatical Taliban (formerly US backed during The Cold War) was returned to a feudal alliance of opium plantation warlords. We’re all stuck there for ” the long haul”, as Kevin 07 has decreed. Even more dangerous is that Clinton is pushing for Bush-lite strategies on a preemptive war with Iran, and Obama is still unable to make up his mind what he might do about the bogus Iran WMD threat.
Of the two, Obama is marginally more appealing because he opposed the invasion of Iraq from the beginning and because he’s not as likely to motivate the Republican evangelical hordes to actually take the trouble to get out the vote as Clinton surely will. Republicans of all persuasions hate her with a passion akin to our Coalition supporters ardent hatred of Paul Keating.
According to my reading today, there is a prima facie case for the following being suspects in a criminal investigation for the commission of war crimes and torture under the terms of the War Crimes Act 1996, the Anti-Torture Act 1996, and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. The charges would be under the principle of “command responsibility” or “superior responsibility”. This principle is recognised by US and international law. It requires three things to establish liability:
1. Clear subordinate-superior relationship
2. Superior must have had reason to know that subordinate would commit a crime
3. Superior failed to take necessary steps to prevent the crime
Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
Former CIA Director George Tenet
Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez
Major General Geoffrey Miller
Vice-President Dick Cheney
President George W Bush
Diogenes, the Australian Constitution was developed over a series of Constitutional Conventions held from 1890-1898 involving delegates from each colony and all walks of life – not just lawyer’s and politicians (though these were, naturally, well represented). The entire process was itself one of the great acts of democratic history and the results were eventually put to the people of the Colonies for their aceptance before being presented to the Queen for her assent.
Information on the Conventions can be accessd below:
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/pubs/records.htm.
I don’t think anyone sees the Constitution as infallible, but it does form the basis of Australia’s government and laws. This, and the consultative process that gave rise to its creation, do make it worthy of respect.
Ferny Grover, that link doesn’t seem to work.
See if this will.
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/pubs/records.htm
Thanks Steve. You’re right – my link didn’t work and yours does. I’ll try it again:
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/pubs/records.htm
Check out the time the meeting was due to begin; looks like they all slept in too.
“WEDNESDAY, MAY 6, 1897.
No Quorum-Adjournment.
The ACTING-PRESIDENT (Sir Richard Baker) took the chair at 10.80 a.m.
There being no quorum, the Acting-President ordered the bells to be rung.
ADJOURNMENT.
There being no quorum at 10.35 a.m., the ACTING-PRESIDENT said: I declare that this Convention stands adjourned until September 2nd, at noon, at Parliament House, in Sydney, in New South Wales.”
I should have provided a link for the Human Rights Watch report “Getting away with torture?” on Rumsfeld et al and torture in Iraq.
http://www.hrw.org/reports/2005/us0405/1.htm
188
Diogenes
Don’t hold your breath. Just remember Henry Kissinger’s exploits and you’ll come to accept that crimes against humanity, even on a monumental scale like the carpet bombing of Cambodia, can be committed by Americans with impunity. Lesser thugs, like Milosovic finally get to court, but the really really big ones get Nobel Prizes.
Funny, that.
Nick Minchin looks like he is going to have a very tough year if he intends to continue trying to defend the indefensible.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/warship-problems-a-frigate-nightmare/2008/01/02/1198949894115.html
189 KR- Sadly, I’ve just finished the book I read all this in (The Lucifer Effect: How Good People Turn Evil by Zimbardo) and he concludes by saying that the Bush Administration has brought in legislation to prevent them from ever being tried for war crimes resulting from the War of Terror (sic). And as an atheist, I don’t even have the comfort of knowing they will rot in hell!
Regarding Conroy’s proposed plans for the Intertubes (we don’t know the full story just yet), it doesn’t help the cause of those opposing the plan as reported to use their blog to launch scathing personal attacks on those who express an opposing view.
http://www.duncanriley.com/2008/01/02/heres-to-you-deborah-robinson-our-nation-should-maintain-free-speech-for-you-even-if-you-are-an-idiot/
I’ve got mixed views on the issue – yes, there needs to be some sort of protection from Children from the truly bad excess of Pr0n, but the way Conroy is going about it isn’t doing him any favours either.
that should be OF children…
Ferny Grover @ 184
‘The entire process was itself one of the great acts of democratic history …’
A touch of hyperbole?
Or are you of a naturally romantic 19th c bent?
A more prosaic way of looking at it is that from 1 Jan 1901 there were seven Australian colonial parliaments overseen by the Imperial Parliament at Westminster where before there had been merely six.
Chris Curtis – you really are a Labor apparatchik!! Q’land is far from perfect but just listen sometime to Lyn Kosky and some of her Victorian ministerial colleagues. I stand by my comments – Vctoria is broke – Brumby is just cooking the books to hide the reality. I’m off back north.
195 [Q’land is far from perfect...]
But the further it gets from the corruption of past National/Liberal coalitions and Infrastructure freezes of the next National/Liberal coalition the better the place is.
Really Alex, what sort of government gets in just to announce a freeze on Infrastructure building and gets itself unceremoniously dumped at the next election? Queenslanders have good reason to avoid the conservative side of politics.
Alex,
Don’t let the door hit you on the ar*se as you leave.
GG you can’t twist his arm and convince him to stay in the south can you. We have an oversupply of conservative wannabes up here.
Artie B @ 194. No hyperbole…and I’m no rear vision romantic. I don’t know of any other nation whose constitution was developed via such a thorough consultation process with its future citizens. What I do know is something of the struggle and passion of those who were committed to the establishment of an Australian nation, and the huge hurdles they had to overcome to achieve it. It is simplistic to state that all the process did was add a federal colonial government for mother England to babysit. England, by that stage, had neither the resources or the desire to govern Australia (they really lost interest with the cessation of penal transportation 50 years earlier). There would still be legal ties to the Privy Council for another 80 years, but from 1 Jan 1901 all other ties were largely symbolic – as they still are.
cobber @ 155 – thanks for the little red schoolbook link. memories…my dad, an old lefty trade unionist, gave me a copy of it when it came out!
Howard’s sucess in making up ground suggests that incumbent govts have to be in very serious trouble for a long period to lose an election, the WA govt is not in serious trouble. It might be difficult for the Libs to unsit the sitting Labor MPs in Albany and Geraldton despite the redistribution.
199
Sorry Ferny Grover but that is the kind of Australian version of whig history that
was peddled to primary school classes when I was a lad.
It certainly is simplistic to claim that all federation did was to add a further colonial parliament, but I was not making that claim. My point was that such a view had the equivalent degree of sophistication as the one you put.
To claim that the constitutional independence of Australia (apart from PC appeals – hardly an insignificant exception in any event) dates from 1901 does not stack up. I do not see that the continued application of the Colonial Laws Validity Act to the Australian parliaments can be regarded as merely symbolic (and if so then symbolic of what?). The failure of Australia to adopt the Statute of Westminster for ten years and the eventual circumstances in which it was adopted strike me as having practical historical significance.
Remember how Menzies as PM explained Australia’s entry into WW2 to Australians – because Great Britain was at war with Germany so as a consequence was Australia.
The Constitution of Australia Act was an Act of the Westminster Parliament. However the constitution was framed (and whatever gloss you want to put on the constitutional conventions it was substantially written by a comparatively small group of colonial politicians) it was subject to approval not only by the people of the colonies but by Westminster. (And Westminster did run a very fine comb over it.)
I am unaware of the background to the British North America Act but I imagine it was similar.
Westminster generally had no interest in meddling in the internal affairs of British colonies in the 19th c and amiably granted self-government to all of them (as long as they were white) but it did retain its rights to protect imperial interests. The relative lack of interference by Westminster in Australian affairs is explained by the fact that obedient children rarely require discipline. The relative position of the Australian Commonwealth government vis a vis Westminster post-federation was only subtly different to that of the colonial governments prior to federation. From the point of view of Westminster federation was an improvement because it meant that imperial interests could largely be addressed thro’ the one federal government rather than thro’ each of the six state ones.
Federation was undoubtedly an important event, but its circumstances were romanticised at the time and continue to be so.
In the aftermath of the demise of Bhutto, there’s some interesting analysis highlights the inept and naive assumptions of the Bush administration, not only in Pakistan, but Iraq too. Here’s a para from Salon.com:
The Bush administration coupled its support for Pakistan’s democratization with an effort to handpick Benazir Bhutto as her country’s democratic “savior.” But we have also seen this (very bad) movie before in the administration’s abortive effort to promote Ahmad Chalabi as the key to “democratizing” and stabilizing post-Saddam Iraq. Once again, the Bush administration turned to a Western-educated political exile, the head of a family kleptocracy who had twice shown herself to be an ineffective head of government, to shore up its tattered strategic partnership with Islamabad. Like Chalabi, Bhutto played to all of Washington’s preferences, saying that she would lead a renewed fight against the Taliban and al-Qaida in northwestern Pakistan (notwithstanding the fact that, as prime minister in 1993-95, she authorized extensive Pakistani support for the emerging Taliban movement) and sending messages to Israeli leaders that she would recognize Israel.
…just how wrong could the neocons be? Remember too that Chalabi was acclaimed because like Bhutto, he realised that the neocon’s main pre-occupation was Israel, so like her, he made all the right noises. So enamoured were they, it was completely overlooked that Chalabi had no credbility within Iraq.
They just don’t learn a thing, do they?
KR- A trivia question. What do the last two Iraqi PMs Ibrahim Al-Jaafari and Ayad Allawi, have in common with the 2IC of Al-Qaeda Ayman al-Zawahiri?
A hint is they have the same thing in common with the Federal leaders of two of the three main political parties in Australia.
All quacks.
From memory, Allawi was a neurologist, not sure about al-Jaafari, and al Zawahiri was also a quack from a very elite Egyptian family. I could look them up, but hey, that would be cheating.
Mind you, Allawi and Zawahiri both have very murky pasts, but from memory, al-Jaafari was exiled in Iran for years.
Ah, it’s coming back, Allawi had been a Ba’athist and friend of Saddam in the early days, and is reputed to have bombed a bus of school kids. He fell out with Saddam, fled to the UK, where later, Saddam’s henchman woke him up one night and did their best to butcher him.
Paul McGeough of the SMH retold a story that when PM of Iraq, Allawi took out his revolver and personally executed some captured ‘insurgents’, a toughman stunt to show he wasn’t a pussy, and Saddam’s equal.
Problem was that all the exiled Iraqis were distrusted as either CIA operatives (as Allawi had become) or like al-Jaafari, too beholden to the Iranian mullahs.
The US never got it right, still haven’t.
Diogenes, here’s the best potted history of recent Pakistani politics you’re likely to read, warts and all:
http://icga.blogspot.com/2008/01/pakistans-power-puzzle.html
…from Barnett Rubin, who really knows the turf.
I keep getting the feeling that Washington has so snookered itself on this one that it’s going to take years of a Democrat President to unwind the position of the ‘war on terror’ being a justification for grotesque military rule. And let’s hope that in the meantime, the place does not implode and become a second Iraq.(This time, actually with WMD!)
207 KR- 100% correct. al Zawahiri was a surgeon and practiced for a while. I don’t think al-Jaafaari ever practised, similar to Che Guevara. The current presidents of Chile, Syria and Uruguay are also doctors, as was Keating’s old mate Mahathir (I should have recognised that arrogant, patronising expression!).
And on history repeating itself, Voltaire put it best “History never repeats itself, man always does.”
Steve 198 – me a conservative wannabe? FYI, over the past 3 years I have had about 30 letters published in the Oz and the Age criticising Howard and his carpetbaggers. Had one in the Courier Mail last week criticising the Bligh government – share it around as incompetence deserves criticism anywhere. I’m returning to Brisbane for family reasons, Melbourne is a great city but Victoria is currently led by a pretty ordinary government and I hold fears for Victoria’s future irrespective of who is running the place. BTW, isn’t Greensborough one of those suburbs near the arse end of Melbourne?
189 KR- Here is a huge coincidence given last night’s comments about torture investigations. It will only target the CIA but it might go higher.
Criminal probe for CIA over torture tapeshttp://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23002239-12377,00.html
OK Diogenes, here’s a quiz question for you:
What is the connection between the town of Greeley in Colorado and al Qaeda?
There was a Muslim school teacher who went there for a study tour to learn how to improve his countries education system (I think Egypt). He was a pro-Western moderate when he went there and was so disgusted by the consumerism he saw that he became a radical anti-capitalist. Some of his disciples went into al Qaeda.
Alex McDonnel,
Greensborough is not as nice as Hurstbridge, being under the control of the City of Banyule rather than the Green Wedge Shire of Nillumbik, but it is a pleasant enough place.
If as you claim, John Brumby ‘is just cooking the books’, please give some evidence on which you base that claim. Perhaps you could let the auditor-general know. Just repeating it in different words does not make it true.
You apparently have no evidence to contradict any of the facts I presented in support of the Victorian Labor Government’s achievements and have, based on the facts that you do not contradict, concluded that I am a ‘Labor apparatchik’. I will add it to the list of accusations against me, along with the ‘obvious left wing bias’ I was accused of on the Andrew Bolt Forum for correcting another poster’s simple factual error regarding the Heiner Affair.
Chris Curtis
(Vice President, Victorian DLP, 1976-78)
157 Alex McDonnel Just a touch of reality for you. The Brumby Labor government is leading the Liberals in the last poll 60% to 40%.
213
Diogenes
yep, Sayyib Qutb, major force behind the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and of course, big mentor of Ayman al-Zawahiri. Qutb was aghast at the jitterbugging teenagers, the materialism, and the rampant individualism that was everything that his idea of Islam was not. He went on to be the leading figure in the radical movement and was the seminal anti-Western figure that spawned the violent jihadis we know so well today.
Greeley has a lot to answer for! Ha!
Those who were students in the 1960’s may be interested in this article re tumultuous events in US, 1968.
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/010208S.shtml
Can’t believe it is 40 years ago though!
With the Iowa caucuses imminent, I tried to work out who to barrack for amongst the Republicans. And this helped me no end. Rush Limbaugh doesn’t want Guiliani (no surprise there) or McCain (definitely no surprise) but he also doesn’t want Huckabee who he alleges is not a true conservative. Romney and Thompson are his preferred candidates, and given that Thompson is brain-dead I’m sure he’s the one the hard-core neo-cons will want. Romney might have some of his own ideas which could stuff up the neo-cons agenda. So for me its
McCain>Guiliani>Huckabee>Romney>Thompson.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0108/Rush_Huck_not_a_conservative.html
217
Megan
Just a few nights ago we watched the movie “Bobby” about the younger Kennedy’s assassination, which drove me to check on Sirhan Sirhan, the imputed assassin.
If you think the first Kennedy death was clouded in mystery, myth, rumour and strangeness, look up the history of what happened that night in the Ambassador Hotel and the subsequent ‘investigation’.
It is utterly amazing, and of course the movie is a total Hollywood bland-out, but the case was even more convoluted and distorted than any thriller script you could concieve.
What appeared on one level to be a simple case, deranged Palestinian shoots Robert Kennedy, is almost certainly not true, and the mind-boggling mishandling of the evidence and straight out destruction of vital evidence leaves you with a horrible feeling that the truth was not something that got an airing at the trial.
1968, it was an incredible year, to be sure.
Hi Alex @ 210,
It depends whether you are cuming or going.
Go Boy. You get your licks wherever you can.
KR- still remember the brilliant documentary “Hearts and Minds” (1972) -unforgettable insight into all sides of the Vietnam war- and in it Daniel Elsberg broke down at what might have been if Robert Kennedy had not been shot in 1968.
Wish there were more brave souls like Elsberg, Marchetti and Marks (of “The CIA and the Cult of Intelligence” fame),etc.- whistleblowers who cut to the facts.
Arty B & Ferny Grover…
My thoughts…
On the day that my Great Great Grandfather (born in 1830) arrived in Sydney, after a four month voyage from England, on 16th November 1855, the Sydney Morning Herald carried two main stories… one was about the most recent developments in the Crimean war… the other was about the new NSW Constitution bringing forth Responsible Government.
My Great Great Grandfather went on to live through the rest of the 19th Century, and until the second year of WW1, in the process seeing various colonies first separate from NSW and then federate with them.
As a loyalist (6th Gladesville LOL), doubtlessly he would have always regarded himself as a British subject. This would have been the common view at the time, of most of the population, whether Sterling or Currency Lad. To him there would have been no question that he remained a British subject upon Australian federation.
He would doubtlessly have regarded Australia as an independent nation within the British Empire. The idea that Australia could be an independent nation outside of the British Empire, that is, independent in the sense that the USA was independent, would simply have been ‘a nonsense’ and I doubt that it was a commonly thought of proposition at the time. Nationhood then did not mean the same thing to the populace as nationhood now.
When his Grandson (my Grandfather) enlisted for service with the AIF in 1915, the enlsitment form asked if (the applicant) was a British (Not Australian) subject, whether by birth or naturalisation. Persons becoming naturalised at the time became British subjects. Even the Attestation papers for WW2 when my father ’signed up’ still asked if one was a British citizen.
The idea of a ’separate’ Australian citizenship did not occur until later. Presumably the date of some Citizenship Act would allow us to identify a particular date, but regardless of that, I think it is correct to say that the idea of Australian Citizenship, like the closely related and intertwined concept of Australian independence was a gradual one.
In that light I think that the Australian constitution must be regarded as an important STEP in the evolutionary process of nationhood and independence. I can not agree that it is either of little relevance nor the all important and culminating event. Further steps, including various court cases, and the gradual financial and constitutional ascendency of the Commonwealth over the States (hastened by WW2) continued and at times perhaps somewhat transformed the process, which in a sense which can be seen to have begun with federation, or even earlier in our history.
More importantly…
Best (if slightly belated) wishes to all Poll Bludgers for good health and happiness 2008.
A special good wish for our host William Bowe, and for the successful progress of his thesis.
Geoffrey Kead,
It was the Chifley Government which passed the Citizenship Act, in the late 1940s, the stating of which allows me to comment on another of the many myths that are regularly repeated re Australian politics. Aborigines were subjects prior to then and became citizens at the same time as everyone else did with the passage of this Act. The 1967 referendum did not grant citizenship to them, as they already held it. Nor did it – to dispel another myth – give them voting rights, which they also already had.
Chris Curtis-Is it also a myth that Aborigines were counted as fauna in the census until the 1967 referendum?
Diogenes, according to Wikipedia
“Aboriginals did not become Australian citizens under the 1948 legislation as they had been excluded by the Commonwealth Franchise Act of 1902. (Aborigines were not counted in the Australian population until after a 1967 referendum).”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_citizenship
Diogenes,
Yes, that is also a myth. I have been attempting to track down the source of that one, with no success whatever. The nearest I have come to its possible origin is a court case involving Aborigines in Queensland under which the Queensland Government argued that it had control of an area of land under the Flora and Fauna Act.
Steve,
Wikipedia is wrong, as are otehr encyclopedias. It is confusing the concept of citizenship with that of voting rights. There were no Australian citizens until the Citizenship Act was passed. There were only British subjects, and Aborigines became British subjects legally speaking from the British occupation of Australia. You can argue that they did not have the rights of citizenship when they were excluded from Commonwealth voting. Aborigines voted in Victoria in the constitutional convention elections, in the constitutional referenda and in parliamentary elections. Some Aborigines regained their Commonwealth voting rights sometime in the middle of the century, and all Aborigines had their Commonwealth voting rights restored in 1962. The 1967 referendum had nothing to do with voting rights or citizenship.
The 1967 referendum did two things: it removed the restriction on the Commonwealth making race-based laws regarding Aborigines (it had always been able to make race-based laws for other peoples), and it determined that Aborigines would be counted in reckoning the population of the country. The reason they had been excluded was that the Constitution provided for the seats in the House of Representatives to be allocated to the states on the basis of population, meaning that the counting of Aborigines would have given more seats to the states with large Aborigine populations, such as Queensland, even though that state would not let them vote, and fewer seats to states with small Aborigine populations such as Victoria which did allow them to vote.
Then there are various state-based laws; e.g., a WA citizenship act which restricted Aborigines in their citizenship.
The whole issue is complicated and then falsely simplified, and thus do myths develop; e.g, the myth that John Howard changed the definition of unemployment and the myth that lemmings commit mass suicide.
Quote:
The whole issue is complicated and then falsely simplified, and thus do myths develop; e.g, the myth that John Howard changed the definition of unemployment and the myth that lemmings commit mass suicide.
…but is it not true that John Howard caused much unemployment among Liberals and the Federal Party indeed committed the much cited lemming act?
Chris Curtis @ 224 – While Aborigines may have technically become citizens in 1948 with everyone else, they did not have all the rights accorded other citizens. They couldn’t vote in WA election until 1962 and 1965 in Qld, and those in Qld, NT and WA couldn’t vote federally until 1962 (unless they’d served in the ADF). Most also couldn’t claim social security until the late 1950s and in some cases not until 1965.
Diogenes @ 225 – The “fauna category” only ended with the 1971 census according to John Goldlust at La Trobe University.
On the wider question of when we became an independant country, when I enlisted in the 1960s I swore an oath to defend, not Australia, but “QEII and her heirs and successors according to law”. Indeed, the word Australia wasn’t mentioned. This only changed relatively recently.
Further information concerning Aborigine’s historical voting rights, the 1967 referenda and related issues of interest may be found…
http://www.aph.gov.au/Library/Pubs/bp/1996-97/97bp11.htm
MayoFeral,
Yes, that’s what I said: ‘You can argue that they did not have the rights of citizenship when they were excluded from Commonwealth voting.’
Geoffrey Keed,
Thank you.
I have some details of the WA Act someone on my computer, but I don’t know where.
On the lemmings myth, I knew Walt Disney was a bastard but this is ridiculous.
“During the filming of the 1958 Disney nature documentary White Wilderness, the film crew induced lemmings into jumping off a cliff and into the sea in order to document their supposedly suicidal behavior.”
http://www.snopes.com/disney/films/lemmings.asp
232
It was a rodent snuff movie! The lemmings were high on powder, hence the ‘white wilderness’ and Walt was in fantasia land.
Diogenes,
It was actually a river, not the sea:
‘The myth of mass lemming suicide began when the Walt Disney movie, Wild Wilderness was released in 1958. It was filmed in Alberta, Canada, far from the sea and not a native home to lemmings. So the filmmakers imported lemmings, by buying them from Inuit children. The migration sequence was filmed by placing the lemmings on a spinning turntable that was covered with snow, and then shooting it from many different angles. The cliff-death-plunge sequence was done by herding the lemmings over a small cliff into a river. It’s easy to understand why the filmmakers did this – wild animals are notoriously uncooperative, and a migration-of-doom followed by a cliff-of-death sequence is far more dramatic to show than the lemmings’ self-implemented population-density management plan.’
(‘Lemmings Suicide Myth’)
http://www.abc.net.au/science/k2/moments/s1081903.htm
While we are dealing with myths:
The definition of unemployment as being less than one hour’s work a week has not changed since 1960. Here is the ABS account of unemployment measures: http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/RN/2006-07/07rn18.pdf
Yeah, but Disney also tidied up a lot of unpalatable stories. Snow White is actually a story about a runaway that shacked up with a bunch of lusty miners.
Why didn’t Donald Duck wear pants?
It appears that all Divisions voted in Favour of the ‘Aboriginal’ referendum, with Kalgoorlie in WA and Leichardt and Herbert in QLD having the largest proportion of NO votes.
Re the ‘Parliament’ referendum, in QLD the Brisbane divisions, as a rule, only narrowly voted against the proposal, but opposition grew markedly the further away from Brisbane that one was. The only QLD division to vote for the proposal was Oxley, so I suppose that that fact can be added to the personages of Bill Hayden and Pauline Hanson when considering the remarkable history of that seat.
Over 90,000 (about 1.6%) managed to vote INFORMAL in BOTH of the referenda, surely a remarkable achievement for those concerned, considering what little effort was needed to cast a formal vote.
Matt Birney to Quit Politics.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,23001555-2761,00.html
GK @222
The discussion seems to have moved on since my last visit, so I will leave it by saying that I think you are basically correct. I would say that if you were looking for a definitive moment when Australia left the British Empire it was probably some point between 1941 and 1945. The leaving was not without regret but, as the Empire was shortly to cease to exist whether Australia liked it or not, there was hardly any choice in the matter. The history of Australian foreign policy since can possibly be regarded as the story of a search for a replacement.
Any word on a NSW state Newspoll?
The National Party and National Farmers Federation are moving in two different directions on farm subsidies and handouts. If they are not careful the Nationals could find themselves friendless.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23004489-5013404,00.html
Dispatches from an unembedded reporter in Iraq.
http://www.truthout.org:80/docs_2006/010308B.shtml
Have missed Paul McGeogh’s articles of late…is he still reporting?
Chris – 214. I don’t have the details of the state of Victoria’s finances and neither would the Auditor General. Pollies are good at hiding stuff. Your quoting of a few education figures does not support the true position of Victoria’s finances. Step back and look at the place – where does its income come from? Gambling taxes and Stamp Duty. Melbourne used to be the financial centre of the country but that is changing now. Executive salaries are now higher in Brisbane than Melbourne but less than Sydney. As I said earlier, manufacturing is closing down in Victoria. If Ford or Holden or Toyota decide to move elsewhere, it will be a big problem.
241
Megan
I haven’t seen anything from McGeough for a while, but I did read a bit of Dahr Jamail’s stuff earlier in the war. He was not always agreed with on every detail by Juan Cole (the best English blog on the ME, by the way), but overall he was a fantastic resource on the ground there.
Thanks for the link, the interview with Jamail is interesting, and especially the way he sees the imperial imperative at work, using all the same historical tricks of divide and conquer. When the whole mad US media thing began to pump up and amplify the crazy neocon notion that Iraq was the most dangerous threat to ‘world peace’ I was convinced that the strategy was to move from Saudia Arabia, (where they’d outstayed their welcome) and shift their permanent bases to Iraq. I called it the ‘changing camels’ strategy at the time.
Nothing since has changed my opinion.
Iowa caucuses are now in progress and there’s some live C-Span web coverage.
There’s a blog on the NY Times that’s updating stuff from all around the state.
Biden’s group is being dissolved as under quota in one caucus precinct that’s on at the moment.
Another has shown up with Obama,Clinton and Edwards very tight in that order, much as the Des Moines Register poll had predicted.
Biden,Dodd,Richardson and Kucinich all under quota so are going to their second preference at this Des Moines High School caucus on C-Span.
It’s a really folksy show, very civil and noisy, with lots of cheering and a fair bit of confusion.
There’s plenty of spruiking and gentle cajoling, and is unlike anything we would ever recognise as a political vote.
Fascinating.
It’s notable that the crowd is essentially white and middle aged, or what I can see so far.
The other thing is noted on the NY Times blog, apparently the turnout is HUGE and some Democcrat centres are overflowing.
Try counting a crowd of people within a crowd of people! They’ve just got 111 for Edwards but think they counted one person twice (the only little old lady!) and have to go out and come in again.
It is the most bizarre spectacle! And it’s all on a time limit!
Final numbers for this precinct’s Democrat tally:
Obama 186
Edwards 116
Clinton 74
They calculate delegate numbers from this count.
OK, here’s the delegate count:
Obama 3
Edwards 2
Clinton 1
This precinct’s 6 delegates are based on population numbers, and each group now gets to elect delegates (plus seconds) to go to the County Conventions in March. Delegates will then be elected to go to State Conventions in April and then on to the national Convention in August.
Wow, you realy have to be committed to take part in this process.
Apparently a lot of younger caucus goes have been noted across the state, which is good for Obama, as he’s polled well with the under 30’s.
With 28% of the precincts reporting, it’s even between Obama and Edwards with Clinton just two delegates behind.
For updated numbers:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/IA.html
Huckabee is well ahead of Romney with 15% reporting
Obama is pulling ahead statewide.
42% reporting, delegates are:
Barack Obama 272 33.5%
John Edwards 260 32.0%
Hillary Clinton 259 31.9%
And Huckabee is killing it:
Mike Huckabee 7,809 35.0%
W. Mitt Romney 5,355 24.0%
The GG has strayed a long way from he party line in this report. Evidently, they have just worked out that Pakistan was more of a problem to world peace than Iraq all along. And there is a very intemperate response from a neocon purporting to be from Princeton
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/yoursay/index.php/theaustralian/comments/bhuttos_elimination_abig_boost_for_al_qaida/
Romney could not buy Iowa, he’s trailing 11% against Huckabee. (Gotta love Iowans, they always pick the loopiest Republicans, it must be inbreeding or something!).
Clinton could not buy Iowa by the looks of it, although it’s a very much closer count in percentage terms.
So far it looks like Obama and Huckabee going on to New Hampshire with noses in front.
251
Diogenes
hey buddy, don’t distract me from the great American democratic process! Ha!
As for that article, the first para give it away:
…Bhutto’s murder is the closest it’s come to killing a Western leader; it is al-Qa’ida’s most sensational attack since downing the twin towers on 9/11
Purlease! Bhutto was a chameleon, who as one writer said recently, “knew Washington better than Washington knew her”. She strung Bush’s crew along to get her foot in the door back home and was no more about restoring democracy in Pakistan than the neocons intend to do in Iraq.
I’ll read the rest when I get the Iowa caucuses out of my system!
Romney has conceded Iowa to Huckabee.
Obama is a few points ahead of Edwards/Clinton and might hold his lead, although no one is officially calling it for him yet.
OK, now 75% of precinsts reporting and Obama is 5% in front. He looks to be pulling ahead strongly, so it should be called pretty soon.
NY Times is now calling it for Obama, with 84% reporting:
Barack Obama 731 36.7%
John Edwards 602 30.2%
Hillary Clinton 598 30.0%
Clinton’s only a smidgeon behind but it doesn’t look good for her, especially given Iowa’s demographics.
Obama has done something monumental, he’s won a predominantly white state. He’ll get a lot of kick from this, especially in the South.
Almost done in Iowa, and what an amazing process! I must say I was incredibly sceptical of it beforehand, but devoting a little time to follow what is essentially the starter’s gun in American presidential politics, was enlightening.
As was the result!
Think about the numbers: the whitest state in the Union, (hmm, should check Alaska!), the oldest and mostly rural, have nominated a fresh faced black American for presidential candidate. (Oh yeah, it’s not just a state with few blacks, but few Hispanics or other minorities).
On the Republican side, the Southern Baptist smooth talking down on the farm sounding politician wiped the big business cashed up and organised Mormon. Well, the Republican religious base had to vote for someone, and Huckers has the face to fit. That a washed up and re-cycled actor cum Reagan look alike came in by a whisker over McCain for third place is pretty interesting too.
So, a build up that lasts a year, and then wham, all over in a few hours! And an amazing result for the dude with the funny name.
So Huckers and Obama…hmm, Ann Coulter will be frothing at the mouth!
Technically, this thread is the one for general discussion and the Vic one is for 2007 Election but it appears weight of numbers have gone over to the dark side and bright lights of the more recent thread.
Oh well, Dio, it’s just you and me!
I’ll try the rest of that Pakistan article soon, but I’ve got a strong feeling it will be another muddled affair.
I’ve been trying to get some feel for what’s going on along the Pakistan border, and so far it’s truly alarming. Think Muqtada al-Sadr gone totally feral and you get the idea. In some places they’re doing their own public executions and the Pakistan military don’t even venture into their territory. It’s Taliban crazy stuff and of course it’s had a huge boost with Bush’s support of Musharraf.
Blowback, I think you call it.
Jen,
Talking about Republicans and fundamentalist christians, Craig Unger includes them here.(video clip)
He was the Editor-in- Chief of the Boston Globe and the first to write an editorial questioning why, when all flights were grounded after 9/11, a private plane with Saudis(including Bin Laden family- from memory) was allowed to leave. Would have needed clearance at the very highest level, and at such a cataclysmic time?
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/122607J.shtml
KR, agree Juan Cole is excellent – am a grazer!
And,did I hear correctly (ABC this morning) that JWH was only 1.7% away from a win?
Heavy swing in postals.
Much too close for comfort.
The final election result was very tight in the end Megan.
It felt like a Labor landslide. Yet John Howard and his Coalition government came within 1.5% of holding on to power at the recent federal election, final figures show.
The Australian Electoral Commission says the Coalition ended up with 47.44% of the two-party vote after strongly outpolling Labor in the record 2.5 million postal, pre-poll and absentee votes counted after election night.
The final count shows the election was closer than it appeared on election night.
Not only did the Coalition haul back Labor’s lead in overall votes, but the election outcome was decided in an extraordinary number of close seats that could have gone either way.
In the end, Labor won 83 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives, the Coalition 65 and independents two. But nine of Labor’s 83 seats were won by margins of less than 1.5%.
Had the Coalition won them, the seats would have been split 74-all, with two conservative independents holding the balance of power – and most likely using it to give John Howard a fifth term in office.
Labor’s narrow wins included Maxine McKew’s victory over Mr Howard in Bennelong (by 1.4%), the Victorian seats of Corangamite (0.85%) and Deakin (1.41%), and three seats won by tiny margins: Robertson (NSW, 0.11%), Flynn (Qld, 0.16%) and the Darwin seat of Solomon (0.19%).
With just 320 more votes in the right places, the Coalition could have cut Labor’s majority to just 10 seats, a less than commanding tally. With fewer than 6000 more votes in the right seats, it could have held onto government.
But there was even more luck on the Coalition’s side. It won 13 of its 65 seats by less than 2%, five of them by less than 0.22%.
They included the Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen, which former tourism minister Fran Bailey held by just 12 votes (0.01%), the Brisbane seat of Bowman, held by 64 votes (0.04%), the former Labor seat of Swan, won by 164 votes (0.11%), and the Queensland seats of Dickson (0.13%) and Herbert (0.21%).
All told, the Coalition won half its seats — 32 out of 65 — by majorities of less than 6%. Labor won 25 of its 83 by the same margin, including the seat of Melbourne, where Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner beat the Greens’ Adam Bandt by just 4.71%.
Most of the 57 MPs in marginal seats now face new uncertainties, with federal redistributions likely in every state except South Australia before the next federal election.
The electoral commission has begun the process of redistributing the 15 electorates in Western Australia, and will begin redistributions in Tasmania and the Northern Territory later this year.
Population shifts will also require it to once again carry out redistributions in Queensland and NSW in 2009, with Queensland gaining a seat and NSW losing one. By January 2010, it will be Victoria’s turn.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/howard-only-15-from-being-pm-again/2008/01/04/1198950112914.html
Bolderdash. I’m sick of people saying silly things such as that.
“But there was even more luck on the Coalition’s side. It won 13 of its 65 seats by less than 2%, five of them by less than 0.22%.”
That is the important bit. Labor got large swings in almost every electorate. Only 4 or 5 electorates went the other way, mostly corrections. They stole McEwen and probably bowman too. The new electoral laws were pretty much responsible for Swan, Herbet and Dickson. With one of the lowest acceptence rates of provisional votes in modern times. I’m not even goin to start about appointments to the Aec.
The Western Australian Parliament passed the Native (Citizenship Rights) Act in 1944. It does not seem to define any particular rights of citizenship but simply sets out a process whereby Aborigines can gain citizenship of WA. It thus predates the Commonwealth Act under which no Australian was a citizen before 1948.
The ABC had a program, “Sisters, Pearls and Mission Girls”, on today, on which a person claimed that Aborigines had been classified as fauna, but he, like everyone else who makes this claim, gave no reference.
Details of the WA Act are at:
http://www.nla.gov.au/apps/cdview?pi=nla.aus-vn672744-9x
I am not sure what value it is in proving the two line graph given that both lines invariably follow each other (I guess the crossover is interesting.. But Western Australia is showing a rather volatile electorate. Which is not good for the Liberal Party overall. They may have amde a few gains on the day but according to this graph it is not a solid point of view and appears to change day by day. A week is most certainly a long time in politics