In Melbourne as elsewhere, the November 24 election produced a pattern of strong swings in outer suburbs and weak ones nearer the city, which cut across the partisan divide. The swing against veteran Liberal moderate Petro Georgiou in blue-ribbon Kooyong was just 0.05 per cent, while Peter Costello faced a similarly mild 1.7 per cent shift in neighbouring Higgins. This pattern carried over to the conservative dead zone of Melbourne, which swung only 1.1 per cent in Labor-versus-Liberal terms. However, the real story here was Greens candidate Adam Bandt’s success in edging out the Liberal candidate to take second place. The Greens’ primary vote was up 3.8 per cent to 22.8 per cent, 0.7 per cent behind the Liberals. This gap was bridged after distribution of minor party preferences, with Bandt leading the Liberal candidate 21,996 (25.1 per cent) to 21,405 (24.4 per cent) at the second last exclusion. Liberal preferences then took Bandt to within 4.7 per cent of victory, producing the first ever “Labor versus Greens” two-party result in a federal seat at a general election. This is the first time Melbourne has met the AEC’s definition of a marginal seat (6 per cent or less) since 1904.
Beyond the swing-resistant inner core of Melbourne, Kooyong and Higgins lay a band of seats separating it from the volatile outer suburbs. Batman followed the broader pattern of mild swings of around 4 per cent in inner suburban Northcote, and heavier ones of 6 per cent to 7 per cent at Preston and Reservoir further to the north. The Greens’ vote was up 3.2 per cent to 17.2 per cent, a potentially bridgeable 3.4 per cent behind the Liberals. Jagajaga, Chisholm and Menzies produced near identical swings of 4.6 per cent to 4.7 per cent, respectively staying safe for Labor’s Jenny Macklin and Anna Burke and the Liberals’ Kevin Andrews. On the bayside, Melbourne Ports produced a relatively gentle 3.4 per cent swing which was nonetheless the biggest movement in the electorate since 1993, while its safe Liberal neighbour Goldstein swung 4.0 per cent.
The two biggest swings were in the Melbourne area were in the outer suburban suburbs of Calwell in the north and Holt in the south-east. Calwell topped the table at 11.1 per cent, with swings topping 15 per cent at Craigieburn on the outermost urban fringe. The 10.1 per cent swing in Holt was most pronounced in the south, peaking with a mighty 17.5 per cent swing at the electorate’s largest booth of Narre Warren South. Swings in the north were in the range of 5 per cent to 9 per cent. In what might be regarded as the defining booth result of the election, a 10.96 per cent swing to Labor was recorded at Kath and Kim’s home of Fountain Gate.
Labor added some fat to a number of margins in traditionally safe south-eastern seats that were cut uncomfortably fine in 2004. After previous member Ann Corcoran suffered an unexpectedly close shave in 2004, newcomer Mark Dreyfus boosted the Labor margin from 1.5 per cent to 7.7 per cent in Isaacs, which produced heavier swings in the inland suburbs of Keysborough and Carrum Downs than along the coast. Immediately to the north, Simon Crean increased his margin from 7.4 per cent to 13.0 per cent in Hotham, with particularly strong swings recorded in Springvale. In Bruce the swing to Labor was an evenly distributed 4.8 per cent, increasing Alan Griffin’s margin to 8.3 per cent.
Liberal seats in the eastern suburbs mostly followed the trend of their Labor-held neighbours. Only in the case of Deakin was the swing enough for a seat to change hands, Labor winning the seat for only the second time since its creation in 1937. Their candidate Mike Symon picked up 5.7 per cent on the primary vote and 6.4 per cent on two-party preferred to prevail with a margin of 1.4 per cent, ending the 11-year parliamentary career of Liberal member Phil Barresi. Labor achieved an identical swing further afield in McEwen, which was famously 12 votes short of what was needed to unseat Fran Bailey. The swing peaked at South Morang (10.6 per cent) and Wallan Wallan (9.1 per cent), but there was no clearly discernible pattern to its distribution. Labor’s other disappointment was a 5.3 per cent swing in La Trobe that fell 0.5 per cent short of delivering them the seat. The Dandenong Ranges formed a rough dividing line between suburbs on the city side where the swing was in the order of what Labor required, and the hill suburbs and surrounding small towns where it fell just short at around 4 per cent.
On safer ground for the Liberals, Bruce Billson’s seat of Dunkley returned to the marginal zone with a swing of 4.2 per cent that was felt more heavily in Frankston than Mornington and Mount Eliza. In outer suburban and semi-rural Casey, Tony Smith suffered a 5.4 per cent swing that was higher in suburban Croydon and Kilsyth than in the satellite towns of Monbulk and Woori Yallock. It is interesting to note a particularly sharp 8.1 per cent swing in Aston, which memorably gave the Liberals a bigger margin in 2004 than Kooyong. Any thoughts that this might have marked a long-term realignment can now be laid to rest, as the respective margins are now 5.0 per cent and 9.5 per cent.
Labor’s safe seats in the west and north of Melbourne produced remarkably consistent swings of between 5.5 per cent to 6.7 per cent, excepting the aforementioned Calwell. Wills followed the pattern of neighbouring Batman in producing smaller swings of around 4 per cent at Brunswick at the southern end nearer the city, increasing to around 7 per cent at Glenroy in the north. Bill Shorten’s candidacy appeared not to make much difference one way or the other in Maribyrnong, which swung to Labor by a locally typical 5.8 per cent which was evenly distributed through the electorate. There was similarly consistency in the swings in Gellibrand (6.5 per cent), Gorton (6.3 per cent) and Lalor (6.7 per cent).
739 Comments
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Betting on Maxine was the easiest money of the election
Great for the informed punter.
I hope McCain wins, as he appears to be one of the more moderate republicans. He is 72 though.
That’s why the Republicans really don’t have much ammunition this election.
Ah, the memories. I’ll never forget the punt of the century – getting $3 on Maxine on Betfair after the exit poll at around 5:55 pm on the 24th. It almost seemed unfair, although I successfully dismissed that thought !
Yes, the tide is out on the Republicans, but the differences between the parties seem even less than it is here. When you look at what H Clinton has supported all the way through – where’s the difference in policy from GW? They all have to be religious zealots, gun supporters, and gung-ho nationalists before they start. It’s a weird place.
I agree, take care with betting in that surreal environment.
‘night all and sundry
Frfucsakes. I have kept up my reading, dear bludgers.
Great work all those who provide such terrific references and updates on the goings on. Keeps me so endlessly engrossed I am fair worn out with reading.
It’s all over the place. Darting from Obama to Hillareyous to Bull’nBush.
My view.
The Republicans are over. Dead. As in everywhere. Under whatever shade or name.
The only question is which of the Democrats will win.
I can hardly pretend to understand the Greatest Democracy, or its weird ways. Or perhaps I do understand, it is merely the process which is confusing.
Apart from everything else I have looked at, I did go again to the Obama site.
It is amazing to see how Kev07 it is. It is amazing to see how Obama08 so represents the same mood. Not only from the site, but the idea of it. So JFK.
The deal is change. The Clinton camp represents the old. We see the same deriding stuff against Obama as happened here. ‘Roll of the dice.’ Inexperience.’
Worse, no doubt, is yet to come, for Obama.
Well, too bad, it is over. He will survive verbal attacks. Not at all sure about the other.
No American willing or permitted to vote will accept that the weirdest democracy may carry on as it has done under GWB. Nor will they trust the Clintons to alter the status quo.
I do not bet or gamble.
But am prepared to risk this, Obama is the go. Not sure that even a remarkable new candidate could do it.
I am sure.
An enjoyable read about US populists in the Presidential campaigns.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/01/populist_campaigns_based_on_de.html
“And as for the testimony from Lynn Cheney that her husband and Obama were eighth-cousins, the Democratic frontrunner professed to being “kind of disappointing. When they are doing these genealogical surveys you kind of hope you are related to somebody cool… Dick Cheney?”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/06/voters-offer-tweaks-to-ne_n_80041.html
A follow up.
And watching Foxtel elsewhere last night and before I returned and read the pollbludgers, a piece on Henry Parkes.
It was themed on the development of the Australian Constitution, but what struck me was the film footage of the strikers of 1890. Not the action. The determination on their faces. There comes a moment and it was visible in their stance.
Heads up, not cocked to the right or left, straight on, expression, immoveable.
You would recognise the exact same bearing and manner, as in ourselves, in unalterable decision about what we intended, regarding the Federal Election.
I was asked some ten months before, whether Labor would win. My answer was yes, then challenged on the supposedly unattainable sixteen seats, I said, it is about a quiet determination.
I recall my direct face, stubborn lip, firm nod, as I said this, not that I was in a looking glass. I know that is the way I must have looked, intended, certainly felt. And know it was a look not to be challenged. And a look which must have convinced any waverer.
Now, how can I say this? We here experienced soaring highs and tremendous lows. But we never wavered in our belief and hope. Sheer agony, and more so for the not quite decided, outside this site, battered by the tides of uncertainty visited upon them by those who could not envisage the idea of change.
The Americans are about to go through this, big time. I have every expectation they will make it. Just as we did. The narrowing may occur, but it will be all right on the night.
It will take every look, every chin, every bit of support we can offer, too.
Let’s do whatever we can.
(Steve 505. Thank you. Not least of the linkers. I actually blogged to one of the sites you pointed to, the Courier, not that it was printed, maybe too late for the blog. Will try again. In the light of what I have said).
jaundiced view @ 495 asked:
Sorry, neurogenesis only occurs in the hippocampi which play a role in memory storage, mood regulation and spatial navigation, but have little effect on thinking/intelligence.
As for the liver, try milk thistle supplements.
The Australian has an article today comparing Obama to the Reagan effect, appealing to a broad spectrum including many disaffected Republicans, interesting theory:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23013962-7583,00.html
Quote “The analogy that worries Republicans the most is a more recent one. Could Obama be a potential liberal version of Ronald Reagan? Could he do for the Democrats what Reagan did for the Republicans a quarter century ago? It’s increasingly possible. Reagan was the cutting edge of the previous realignment in US politics. With a good-natured civil appeal to Democrats who felt abandoned by their party under Jimmy Carter, Reagan revolutionised the reach of his party.”
Basil Fawlty
It’s the RR, formerly GG affect (Republicans Rule).
They just can’t help it. Undermining hope is their specialty. Trust them to choose the gloomy road.
Did they publish anything optimistic?
507 CW The bit I love is that the Democratic Party will be relatively stable with Obama and Clinton while the real sniping and dogfight will be the Republican Party tearing into each other until September trying to sort out a veritable dog’s breakfast of candidates trying to be top dog.
CW, that was not how I interpreted the article, it is in fact saying that Obama could do for the liberal cause what Ronnie did for the republicans, ie positive, or did I miss something. The scary bit was further on about Huckleberry and his plans to claim America for Christ and quarantine AIDS sufferers, jeez what planet are these people from?
Yes, Steve 511. Interestingly, Obama/Clinton could end up being a ticket.
Which would be an incredible scenario.
The Republicans have been devouring each other for years, so it will be a pleasure to watch the last of the dogs at each other’s throats, as you say.
I must go now, so catch up this arvo.
Oh, sorry Basil Fawlty. Maybe you are correct. I only read your excerpt. Will have another look. Mind you, I am a wee bit suss about the Australian. Diogenes could probably help me with my condition.
See you later.
Morning all -
today’s pearl from GWB (and Diogenes, this one’s for you)…
“Too many good docs are getting out of the business. Too many OB/GYN’s aren’t able to practice their love with women all across the country.”
Oh Dear
Romney tries to get tough but shoots himself in the foot.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/06/romney-i-want-bin-laden-_n_80072.html
I can diagnose that for you CW, it is a condition known as ‘paranoid suspicion of media owned by Murdoch’, well known and widespread, I suffer it myself
Steve
yet another complete tosser running for POUSA.
The democrats look unbeatable . I agree wholeheartedly with you Crikey, the desire for change is far bigger than populist politics or even particular issues.
I think is has a deeper, psychological basis that people feel let down by the leaders they wanted to trust, and anyone who offers a credible and new alternative is worth a shot.
That’s why I really don’t think Hillary can cut it – too much assosciation with the old regimes regardless of party .
And just as we gave neophyte Kevin a go based on the need for change, I am sensing the same thing can happen there.
In fact, it just did- in Iowa.
I agree Jen, another complete tosser. Why do we have to endure this ‘conga line’ of politicians all spouting their vile hate-inducing Christian rhetoric. It is amazing to me that they only seem to select the barbaric bits from the teachings of the Bible. Whatever happened to the love your neighbour as yourself, turn the other cheek bits. Religion is the curse of mankind, let’s start by locking all the lunatic fundamentalists from both sides on an island and let them go at each other.
Now for a little rewriting of history.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Back_to_Iraq.html
508 MayoFeral- Sorry, you are are wrong there. New neurons have been shown to form in the cortex as well, at least in adult monkeys. The evidence is pretty overwhelming that neurons can regenerate in human adult brains. It is one of the few areas I know something about coz I have a PhD in neurophysiology (its a long story why a plastic surgeon has one of those!).
Obama on Iraq.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1304437063076200479&q=obama+2002+speeches&total
Obama clear favourite in NH. Hillary has drifted to 3.90.
Obama is firming as favourite for the democrat candidacy.
Pretty amazing stuff given how far behind he is in the national polls.
@ 508 & 521 MayoFeral & Diogenes (The Practice)
I want Diogenes to be correct on this as I have a vested interest due to my lifestyle. I used to drink at a pub with a bloke 20 years ago who got on it fairly heavily for 6 months each year, and then had the next 6 months completely on the wagon. I can see there was instinctive method in his behaviour – giving time for the liver and brain to regenerate. Although I suspect 6 months is more then really necessary. My current 3 months is much more civilised.
Has everyone seen the jump in Obama’s Intrade support for Dem nomination (referred to it very late last night)? 59/41 in his favour over Clinton it was – 8 points up on a couple of days ago.
I think j view the more relevant question is how many standard drinks a day do you consume? And do you allow yourself any alcohol free days?
years or decades?
Intreresting article in The Age today that confirms that Richard di Natale missed winning Victoria’s final seat by fewer than 9000 votes.
In an extraordinarily close three-way contest, Liberal candidate Scott Ryan also edged out Dr di Natale by just over 0.7% of the vote — the narrowest win of any of the 18 seats the Coalition won in the Senate election.
The result will give the Coalition 37 of the 76 seats when the new Senate takes effect from July 1, a loss of just two seats from the 39 it holds now.
Labor won 18 seats, a gain of four, taking its tally to 32. The Greens won three seats, edging their Senate numbers up from four to five. The other seat went to South Australian independent Nick Xenophon.
The election wiped out the Democrats, who will disappear from Parliament after June 30.
The result means the Coalition will be able to block any Labor legislation it opposes if it has the support of Mr Xenophon or Family First senator Steve Fielding.
Although Labor narrowly outpolled the Coalition in first preferences — winning 40.3% to the Coalition’s 39.9% — that lead was reversed after preferences.
ESJ – Too many and too few, respectively. but I have a good GP who says 10 drinks a day is fine – as long as they are sipped and not guzzled. I’m sticking with him.
528 Sounds like that doctor is a proponent of ‘the illusion of control’ theory.
Guido @ 527
Reflecting on the relatively strong coalition vote in the senate, it seems that the efforts of Getup and the Greens to get people to approach the senate vote differently might have backfired with some voters, who balanced a vote for Labor in the reps with a vote for the coalition in the senate, because they expected Labor to win overall but couldn’t bring themselves to vote Green.
Steve- 10 days off the grog so far – now that’s real control. I haven’t consulted my GP about it though, he might have discouraged my efforts!
Did you hear about the group Richard Harris started? It was called ‘Alcoholics Unanimous’. If you didn’t feel like a drink you phoned a friend who talked you into it.
Great effort JV just keep doing what you are doing and you will soon have twenty years up without even worrying about control. If you are not drinking there is no need for control. Only drinkers have to control their drinking, To nondrinkers the theory is superceded.
Dont you worry about those Republican candidates! Jesus will save them all and lead them on to glory! LOL.
RE Richard’s missing out ion the senate (sob).
Wonder if the chances of a DD are higher than previously thought with the coalition still pretty close to control.
Fielding is likely to side with them.
I have to admit it is more fun watching the US now though. What a watershed for global change this could really be if Obama wins.
Obama Magic Draws Record Crowds
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/obama-magic-draws-crowds/2008/01/06/1199554485481.html
That lamp I carry around may have found what I’ve been looking for!
Diogenes – does that lamp contain the Light on the Hill?
Jen – It would be for sure be best if Obama won, but one must keep reminding oneself that there is so little room to move for a US President, within the constraints of the the military, the industrial establishment, Congress, the Churches, the organised lobbies.
Obama will essentially have to read from the script he is given (that’s no doubt why actors do so well in politics over there!)
It is too easy now with all the early rhetoric to set ourselves up for disappointment on a wave of hope that will suddenly fill up into nothing once it rolls over the election reef.
JV-What if he really is a true leader though, who makes decisions that are not only to please`the power brokers that rule behind the scenes?
ie -the type of leader many of us have never seen in our lifetimes.
I think its abit soon for people to count Romney out. Think about it carefully. If Huckabee comes first in Iowa/South Carolina, McCain in New Hampshire, Giuliani in Florida/nervada and he come second in all of them. That puts him in a strong position.
Anyway i want Romney to win. overall he is the least popular in the electorate
Giuliani V Obama would be the worst case scenario for the Democrats. As Giuliani would do well in the northern states while lossing minimal ground in the south. McCain would also have alot of negatives for Obama. This is according to the polls I’ve read so far.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_by_state_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008 offers a good summary
Steve @ 522
Great link. The more I see, hear and read about Obama the more I hope he gets up.
The win in Iowa caused people to listen just that bit more and it appears they like what they hear.
… and of course who can forget the way in which Obama demolished Howard in a single breath.
Jen @ 538 – [ie -the type of leader many of us have never seen in our lifetimes.]
Wow, is obama really that impressive? I know KirribilliR seems to think so and now Diogenes is holding a lamp for him. He does seem a bit different to the usual candidates, but I will leave my pompoms in the cupboard until the blowtorch has been fired up.
JV-
I know it sounds a bit extreme, (although,being a Green and all..), however the time has come for not just a change of leadership, but a change in style of leadership.
We face unprecedented danger with global warming, and the threat of fundamentalism( Islamic, Christian and Jewish) influencing politics across the globe leading to who knows what.
That is why I am sitting glued to the sites to watch the unlikely unfold. A person of vision and integrity appears to be on the ascend. And he won’t be perfect, but it looks like he’ll be a damn site better than what we’ve had in the 47 years I’ve been on this earth.
jv- The legend about Diogenes was that he lit a lamp in broad daylight. When asked why, he replied that he was looking for a human.
Re Obama- I have Dawkinsian antipathy towards religion and I could therefore never fully support him, but he’s the best of the bunch for me (actually I quite like McCain and Edwards).
JV,
perhaps we are all just expressing the deep seated hope that change is possible.
That there could be a leader of vision and integrity in politics, rather than the cynical, self-interested people we’ve had for so long now (both sides of politics included here) that is seems ads if that is all taht can ever be.
Global warming is an unprecedented threat to the entire globe, as is the rise of fundamentalism (Islamic, Christian and Jewish), and we have a right to demand true leadership from our politicians.
Obama may not make the grade but he’s the closest I’ve seen to it my lifetime.
I keep getting moderated – I think it is because I mentioned the Abrahamic religions of the J type in my response.
Diogenes –
he’s not religious is he?
As in really, or just to appease the masses who Love the Lord.
542 Diogenes – Well my seasonal festive lights are on, glowing away in the middle of the day here in empathy with that mythical lamp. No humans in sight here either – just a teenage son.
Good to find another rational atheist – try Sam Harris’ “The End of Faith”as well.
Indeed, how can one get emotionally attached to any of these US politicians, who wallow in such wilfull ignorance? Why do Americans require their leaders to believe in Medieval superstition? They wouldn’t go to a doctor who practised Medieval medicine … or would they …?
Latest NH poll
USA Today/Gallup (January 4-6)
Obama 41
Clinton 28
Edwards 19
Richardson 6
McCain 34
Romney 30
Huckabee 13
Paul 8
Giuliani 8
Thompson <3
Hunter <3
The surveys of 776 New Hampshire residents who are “likely” to vote in the Republican primary and 778 New Hampshire residents who are “likely” to vote in the Democratic primary were all completed after the news from Thursday’s Iowa caucuses had been reported.
Each figure has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. So Obama’s lead is “outside” that range, while McCain’s is not.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/06/see-the-latest-nh-polls-_n_79985.html
I posted a “post match report” on Lindsay. Needless to say it was nowhere near as good as this. Perhaps I should have used a map as well lol (actually that’s not a bad idea, I might look into it)
http://australiavotes2007.blogspot.com/2008/01/random-seat-report-lindsay.html
Romney has won the Republican only Wyoming caucuses with 67 percent of the vote. 8 more delogates for the mormon. Thomson came second with 25 percent and 3 delogates. Democrats for that state isn’t till march 8.
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