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	<title>Comments on: Post-match report: Melbourne</title>
	<atom:link href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/01/02/post-match-report-melbourne/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/01/02/post-match-report-melbourne/</link>
	<description>Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth</description>
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		<title>By: sean</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/01/02/post-match-report-melbourne/comment-page-15/#comment-119467</link>
		<dc:creator>sean</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jan 2008 23:18:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/785#comment-119467</guid>
		<description>&quot;The Green vote in Victoria I suggest you do more analysis of the vote try looking at the 4PP of both elections discounting the general percentage swing away from the liberals... Did you d the exercise in calculating the distortion in the vote. I suggest you learn more about how the system works, the maybe you can produce a more credible argument. Perhaps you should take a look at the BTL preference data as it will help you understand how the votes are distributed.&quot;
In other words: if you twist the statistics enough you can make it look like the Greens lost votes in the &#039;07 election. Well, that is false. They gained votes, and improved their position from the &#039;04 election (when Risstrom was running).

&quot;if you apply that argument then you would provide no information on any topic&quot;
If you applied my lgic you would only provide information which was to the concern of the everyday citizen, not people bent on harrassing the AEC ever since the day they lost a council election.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The Green vote in Victoria I suggest you do more analysis of the vote try looking at the 4PP of both elections discounting the general percentage swing away from the liberals&#8230; Did you d the exercise in calculating the distortion in the vote. I suggest you learn more about how the system works, the maybe you can produce a more credible argument. Perhaps you should take a look at the BTL preference data as it will help you understand how the votes are distributed.&#8221;<br />
In other words: if you twist the statistics enough you can make it look like the Greens lost votes in the &#8216;07 election. Well, that is false. They gained votes, and improved their position from the &#8216;04 election (when Risstrom was running).</p>
<p>&#8220;if you apply that argument then you would provide no information on any topic&#8221;<br />
If you applied my lgic you would only provide information which was to the concern of the everyday citizen, not people bent on harrassing the AEC ever since the day they lost a council election.</p>
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		<title>By: Brenton</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/01/02/post-match-report-melbourne/comment-page-15/#comment-119381</link>
		<dc:creator>Brenton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jan 2008 07:25:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/785#comment-119381</guid>
		<description>Senate Watch , who gives a toss!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Senate Watch , who gives a toss!</p>
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		<title>By: Senate Watch</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/01/02/post-match-report-melbourne/comment-page-15/#comment-119356</link>
		<dc:creator>Senate Watch</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jan 2008 05:49:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/785#comment-119356</guid>
		<description>Sean I diassage with your assessment and your logic you presented as to Why the BTL preference data should not be published is stupid to say the least. if you apply that argument then you would provide no information on any topic. This most ceartainly is not a valid argument to refuse to publish the detailed elections results.  If you do not want them that is your decision. Others do and are interested.

re The Green vote in Victoria I suggest you do more analysis of the vote try looking at the 4PP of both elections discounting the general percentage swing away from the liberals and you will see the Greens did no better. 2004 the swing was to against the Liberals in 2007 it was and the Greens still failed, thank god, to get elected. Your will need 5% more votes if you are to to rely to the corrupt Bonus Votes and preferences.  Did you d the exercise in calculating the distortion in the vote.  I suggest you learn more about how the system works, the maybe you can produce a more credible argument.  Perhaps you should take a look at the BTL preference data as it will help you understand how the votes are distributed. LOL</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sean I diassage with your assessment and your logic you presented as to Why the BTL preference data should not be published is stupid to say the least. if you apply that argument then you would provide no information on any topic. This most ceartainly is not a valid argument to refuse to publish the detailed elections results.  If you do not want them that is your decision. Others do and are interested.</p>
<p>re The Green vote in Victoria I suggest you do more analysis of the vote try looking at the 4PP of both elections discounting the general percentage swing away from the liberals and you will see the Greens did no better. 2004 the swing was to against the Liberals in 2007 it was and the Greens still failed, thank god, to get elected. Your will need 5% more votes if you are to to rely to the corrupt Bonus Votes and preferences.  Did you d the exercise in calculating the distortion in the vote.  I suggest you learn more about how the system works, the maybe you can produce a more credible argument.  Perhaps you should take a look at the BTL preference data as it will help you understand how the votes are distributed. LOL</p>
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		<title>By: sean</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/01/02/post-match-report-melbourne/comment-page-15/#comment-119293</link>
		<dc:creator>sean</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Jan 2008 21:48:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/785#comment-119293</guid>
		<description>&quot;Why you think the Below-the-line preference data should not be published?&quot;
Said this before a million times: Why would Joe Average care the least about BTL preference data?

&quot;you sell him (Risstrom) out.&quot;
I did not &#039;sell him out&#039;, only pointed out the fact that he got a lower vote in &#039;04 than di Natale got in &#039;07. So, I would suggest, di Natale was a better candidate.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Why you think the Below-the-line preference data should not be published?&#8221;<br />
Said this before a million times: Why would Joe Average care the least about BTL preference data?</p>
<p>&#8220;you sell him (Risstrom) out.&#8221;<br />
I did not &#8217;sell him out&#8217;, only pointed out the fact that he got a lower vote in &#8216;04 than di Natale got in &#8216;07. So, I would suggest, di Natale was a better candidate.</p>
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		<title>By: Senate Watch</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/01/02/post-match-report-melbourne/comment-page-15/#comment-119284</link>
		<dc:creator>Senate Watch</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Jan 2008 15:07:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/785#comment-119284</guid>
		<description>PS David Risstrom gave evidence in the Victorian Civil Appeals Tribunal So much as for your knowledge of this issue.  Try again, or try asking him first before you sell him out.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>PS David Risstrom gave evidence in the Victorian Civil Appeals Tribunal So much as for your knowledge of this issue.  Try again, or try asking him first before you sell him out.</p>
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		<title>By: Senate Watch</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/01/02/post-match-report-melbourne/comment-page-15/#comment-119283</link>
		<dc:creator>Senate Watch</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Jan 2008 15:05:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/785#comment-119283</guid>
		<description>I would have to write a book. The Greens were not around when the policy of reform was in Victoria was beig debated.  I recall having meetings with HOOP and other conservations organisations BUT not the Greens.  

I note and laugh that you still have not answered the substantive question &lt;b&gt;Why you think the Below-the-line preference data should not be published?&lt;/b&gt; 

&lt;i&gt;Avoiding the question are you? &lt;/i&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I would have to write a book. The Greens were not around when the policy of reform was in Victoria was beig debated.  I recall having meetings with HOOP and other conservations organisations BUT not the Greens.  </p>
<p>I note and laugh that you still have not answered the substantive question <b>Why you think the Below-the-line preference data should not be published?</b> </p>
<p><i>Avoiding the question are you? </i></p>
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		<title>By: sean</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/01/02/post-match-report-melbourne/comment-page-15/#comment-118980</link>
		<dc:creator>sean</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Jan 2008 10:56:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/785#comment-118980</guid>
		<description>I agree it is rediclus. you obviously do not know what your talking about…

Your lying when you claim I do not do anything about policies my party has not addressed. Try again. 

&quot;My criticism of the Greens is the BS contradictions in their policies..&quot;
Give me one contradiction, with appropriate evidence (i.e. another source, not your own conspiracy theaory) to back it up.  

&quot;I disagree with them (the Greens)&quot;
Really, I never would&#039;ve guessed. What is your real problem with them? If it&#039;s purely contradictory policies, then what is the Labor party? 

&quot;You still have not provided an answer to my question.. Why should the BTL preference data not be published? You do believe i open and transparent government and elections I trust? Risstrom understands the issue you obviously do not.&quot;
Why would Joe Average care the least about BTL preference data? And where, pray tell, has David Risstrom spoken out about it (give me a source, not your own ramblings)

&quot;The ALP is very much aware of this issue and hopefully they will address it.&quot;
In other words: their yet to address it. Or, even more clearly: Labor are doing nothing about it. But forget that; criticise the Greens!

&quot;After all the reform to the Upperhouse did not come about because of the Greens. That I am 100% sure of.&quot;
You&#039;re right. The Greens never campaigned for Upper House reform... BS!

&quot;lets see who well informed you are as to how the system works…&quot;
Well, I have a good enough idea of how you work: harrassing the AEC, lying about the Greens, championing Labor and your friend Risstrom.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree it is rediclus. you obviously do not know what your talking about…</p>
<p>Your lying when you claim I do not do anything about policies my party has not addressed. Try again. </p>
<p>&#8220;My criticism of the Greens is the BS contradictions in their policies..&#8221;<br />
Give me one contradiction, with appropriate evidence (i.e. another source, not your own conspiracy theaory) to back it up.  </p>
<p>&#8220;I disagree with them (the Greens)&#8221;<br />
Really, I never would&#8217;ve guessed. What is your real problem with them? If it&#8217;s purely contradictory policies, then what is the Labor party? </p>
<p>&#8220;You still have not provided an answer to my question.. Why should the BTL preference data not be published? You do believe i open and transparent government and elections I trust? Risstrom understands the issue you obviously do not.&#8221;<br />
Why would Joe Average care the least about BTL preference data? And where, pray tell, has David Risstrom spoken out about it (give me a source, not your own ramblings)</p>
<p>&#8220;The ALP is very much aware of this issue and hopefully they will address it.&#8221;<br />
In other words: their yet to address it. Or, even more clearly: Labor are doing nothing about it. But forget that; criticise the Greens!</p>
<p>&#8220;After all the reform to the Upperhouse did not come about because of the Greens. That I am 100% sure of.&#8221;<br />
You&#8217;re right. The Greens never campaigned for Upper House reform&#8230; BS!</p>
<p>&#8220;lets see who well informed you are as to how the system works…&#8221;<br />
Well, I have a good enough idea of how you work: harrassing the AEC, lying about the Greens, championing Labor and your friend Risstrom.</p>
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		<title>By: Senate Watch</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/01/02/post-match-report-melbourne/comment-page-15/#comment-118947</link>
		<dc:creator>Senate Watch</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Jan 2008 06:37:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/785#comment-118947</guid>
		<description>Its not that difficult.  I am still waiting to hear Sean&#039;s rational for not publishing the BTL preference data.  What does he want hidden and why would he/the Greens not support this data being made public.  perhaps he would prefer that the Electoral Commission just announce the winning list of candidates and the Commission not be held accountable.

Cris It is simple really.. look at the last two counts. When Family First is distributed add to it the ticket vote from One Nation (This is the hypothetical I am using to demonstrate the seriousness of the flaw in the system that Sean does not understand or tries to avoid people knowing.)

The Hypothetical would result i Labor falling just below quota and would require the Liberal 3rd candidate Surplus to be distributed.

Under the rules adopted by the ARC the surplus is divided equally by the number of ballot papers allocated to the Liberal no 3 candidate.  This is where the distortion 2700+ &quot;Bonus votes&quot; come from.  The system adds value to the Liberal Ticket vote which has over 1.2 billion ballot papers worth a fraction of their original value. The votes that come from Family First are full value and represent over 26% of the Liberal Surplus.  Under the SEC rules they are transferred at less then 10%  of the surplus disproportionally to their original value.

This &quot;bonus&quot; votes flows on to the Greens and elected the Green candidate not on Merrit but on the inbuilt distortion in the system. 
 
If you apply the same results based on the value of the voet (Not the number of ballot papres) the ALP rightly is elected on Family First Preference flow.

Litte wonder why the Greens want to avoid this issue...  Now you know</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Its not that difficult.  I am still waiting to hear Sean&#8217;s rational for not publishing the BTL preference data.  What does he want hidden and why would he/the Greens not support this data being made public.  perhaps he would prefer that the Electoral Commission just announce the winning list of candidates and the Commission not be held accountable.</p>
<p>Cris It is simple really.. look at the last two counts. When Family First is distributed add to it the ticket vote from One Nation (This is the hypothetical I am using to demonstrate the seriousness of the flaw in the system that Sean does not understand or tries to avoid people knowing.)</p>
<p>The Hypothetical would result i Labor falling just below quota and would require the Liberal 3rd candidate Surplus to be distributed.</p>
<p>Under the rules adopted by the ARC the surplus is divided equally by the number of ballot papers allocated to the Liberal no 3 candidate.  This is where the distortion 2700+ &#8220;Bonus votes&#8221; come from.  The system adds value to the Liberal Ticket vote which has over 1.2 billion ballot papers worth a fraction of their original value. The votes that come from Family First are full value and represent over 26% of the Liberal Surplus.  Under the SEC rules they are transferred at less then 10%  of the surplus disproportionally to their original value.</p>
<p>This &#8220;bonus&#8221; votes flows on to the Greens and elected the Green candidate not on Merrit but on the inbuilt distortion in the system. </p>
<p>If you apply the same results based on the value of the voet (Not the number of ballot papres) the ALP rightly is elected on Family First Preference flow.</p>
<p>Litte wonder why the Greens want to avoid this issue&#8230;  Now you know</p>
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		<title>By: Chris Curtis</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/01/02/post-match-report-melbourne/comment-page-15/#comment-118868</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris Curtis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Jan 2008 11:48:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/785#comment-118868</guid>
		<description>Senate Watch,

That would be a too time-consuming and complex for me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Senate Watch,</p>
<p>That would be a too time-consuming and complex for me.</p>
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		<title>By: Senate Watch</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/01/02/post-match-report-melbourne/comment-page-15/#comment-118855</link>
		<dc:creator>Senate Watch</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Jan 2008 09:09:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/785#comment-118855</guid>
		<description>Above message was aimed at Sean.  Chris you might like to also do the hypothetical calculation of the transfer value..</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Above message was aimed at Sean.  Chris you might like to also do the hypothetical calculation of the transfer value..</p>
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