Voting has begun in today’s Florida primaries, the last to be held before Super Tuesday apart from Republican caucuses in Maine on Saturday. For refusing to play by the rules of the parties’ national committees, Florida has been stripped of the 210 delegates it would normally send to the Democratic national convention, along with half of its 114 Republican delegates. All 57 of the Republican delegates will be pledged to the winning candidate, whereas the Democratic primary amounts to nothing more than an opinion poll. Polls show John McCain and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck in the Republican race, with Rudy Giuliani looking very unlikely to pull off his Florida-first strategy.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,099 Comments
The games Rudy plays. Reminiscent of the postal voting and absentee votes the Libs had in the bag at the last Australian election which Senator Minchin, Glen and others told us would ensure a Liberal victory.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/polls_and_early_voting_in_flor.php
Oh well, after today we’ll no longer have to read about what a great president Rudy would make!
What a godawful nasty bit of work he is! I looked over some his personal vindictiveness and vicious backstabbing and came to the same realisation as the folks in FLorida who’ve been polled recently ie he’s a creepy crazed mother, and he’d make GW Bush look like a Sunday School teacher.
So, here’s to Rudy 911, the mayor of nowhere.
I’ll toast that KR. And here’s hoping that Bill’s antics get another walloping too.
Good call, Kirribilli Removals – you’re on the money. It seems so long ago now, but just before 9/11 Mayor Giuliani was on the nose with New York voters. 9/11 resurrected his career, and he’s been milking it ever since.
The question is what precisely did Rudy do on 9/11 day or is it a media myth to show how reslient the US leaders were under stess
I would have thought the numerous Fire Brigade COMMANDERS etc were the ral leaders that day (plus George reading kinder books being the standout)
Earliest exit polls, again only issues and demographics not voting intentions. The economy is the biggest issue and Repugs are almost all white. Only 3/10 Repugs describe themselves as moderate.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jKQGmxj89vyXDiYDSNTLbKgEto-QD8UFQ91O4
Not directly related to Florida, except in the fact that this state is one where acres and acres and acres of realestate is either being foreclosed or houses are left partially built and the rotting air of severe financial collapse wafts over the bright lagoons and canals of housing estates.
Now that the horse has truly bolted:
WASHINGTON, Jan. 29 (Reuters) — The F.B.I. has opened investigations into 14 corporations as part of a crackdown on improper subprime lending, agency officials said on Tuesday.
Skip to next paragraph F.B.I. officials told reporters that the inquiry involved potential violations including accounting fraud and insider trading.
They did not identify the companies, but said the investigation reached across the industry to include developers, subprime lenders, companies that securitized loans and investment banks that held them.
The cases could lead to potential civil or criminal charges, the officials said.
The F.B.I. said it was investigating the cases with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has opened about three dozen investigations into the subprime market collapse.
Targets of the S.E.C. probe include the Swiss bank UBS and the American investment banks Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns, as well as the bond insurer MBIA. It was not clear whether any of those companies were involved in the F.B.I. investigation.
The S.E.C., which has formed an internal subprime-mortgage task force, is looking at how financial firms priced mortgage-based securities and whether they should have told investors earlier about the declining value of those securities.
…like Das said: “regulatory debauchery”
Free enterprise: free to exercise humungous malfeasance and beggar the nation.
Latest polling information from the Votemaster. It looks like Hillary is starting to pull away.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
Rush Limbaugh votes twice (for Romney presumably). Seriously, what kind of a voting system do they have there. What a pathetic joke.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/palmbeach/floridapolitics/entries/2008/01/29/rush_limbaugh_has_trouble_voti.html#jump
Diogenes, that exit polling is very interesting, and shows just how much political affiliation tempers perceptions (or actually distorts facts, depending on how you read it!):
AND HOW’S THE ECONOMY DOING?
Republicans were more likely than Democrats to rate the national economy positively, though few in either party rated it excellent. A third of Republicans but fewer than one in 10 Democrats rated the economy good. Half of Democrats called it poor, compared to only about one in seven Republican primary voters.
…so 1 in 3 Repubs can say the economy is GOOD! Whoa, the Fed’s just slammed interest rates towards the floor (more coming soon, BTW), George is out there telling them not to panic ‘coz he’s going to throw some spending money at them, and they actually think it’s “GOOD”?
Maybe the word ‘good’ has a different meaning in Florida! LOL
Or perhaps all those self-funded retirees are living in gated communities and just don’t get outside very much!
KR: Those are the same “special” voters that think the Iraq war was positive and Dubya was a good president.
No wonder democracy has flaws.
If they’re not as concerned by the economy as one would normally expect (ie more like the Democrats), then the Romney “I can lead you through the economc wilderness to the promised land” stuff may not resonate so loudly. That will surely help McCain, even though the economy is the top issue.
Romney: The Mormon Moses, lots of bullrushes, plus he’s got updated Commandments.
Gotta go, just when the party is about to get interesting!
Catch youse all later, bludgers!
(And commiserations in advance to Glen. But hey, think of the upside, you can now pick another loser to flog senseless, and amuse us!)
Although it won’t happen, how amusing would it be if Obama won Florida.
It would be especially ironic for Hillary given she has now sought that the Floridan delegates be seated, and would make her look like a bigger hypocrite then she already is.
The question would be: would Obama then ask for those delegates to be seated?
“The question is what precisely did Rudy do on 9/11 day or is it a media myth to show how reslient the US leaders were under stess”
Yes and no. Yes for Rudy, no for Dubya. Rudy got his hands dirty (literally and figuratively) in the WTC rubble. His conduct was contrasted with the complete impotence of Dubya. Substantively, Rudy didn’t do all that much; but in a time of crisis, his behaviour took on a lot of symbolism.
agree , howeverRudy would have been told to do that anyway by his spin doctors. We’ll never know if he would have done it irrespective since so many pollies are ‘plastic’
Has the media wound up the Public on the Obama oratory and the dislike of Hilary.
As of right now , what does Obama believe in
FOX NEWS EXIT POLL RESULTS
Senior Citizens– McCain 40, Romney 31, Giuliani 18, Huckabee 7
Veterans– McCain 37, Romney 36, Giuliani 14, Huckabee 8
Hispanics– McCain 50, Giuliani 26, Romney 16, Huckabee 5
WARNING-With 1/3 of votes pre-polled the exit polls will be less reliable than usual. Still its Goodbye Rudy!!
Counting has started.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/#20080129
Surely Rudi would wait on the Super Tuesday results before quitting
One wounders whether the media support for the alleged success of the Iraq ’surge’ has made McCain’s campaign
Early stages point to Clinton.
McCain v Romney too close to call.
Who said cheaters never prosper?
Short term they do, Pancho
Rudi is something like 40,000 votes behind, yes its early and I would imagine that the larger booths are not in yet and they may help him, but he looks beaten, I also thing Edwards looks set to finish third again, considering he is the only major southern on the Democrat side he has not done very well in the south.
I think there is something weird abut the way Americans do elections, how can a state like Florida not be counted or in the case opf the Repubicans only half the normal number will be accepted, I’m starting to think America should cean up its own act before telling anyone else what to do.
“how can a state like Florida not be counted or in the case of the Republicans only half the normal number will be accepted”
It’s because Florida (and Michigan too), for self-interested reasons altered the timing of its primary in defiance of the central Democratic and Republican organisations (National Committees). So the central organisations are (threatening to, may not happen) punishing the state.
It’s like an Australian state branch of a party doing something out of step with the Federal party’s interests (which happens all the time, think Qld Council amalgamations, Joh for PM etc).
Oh, and Rudi must be gone too. Looks like a good McCain/Romney fight though!
Rudi running a distant third.
Cya, thanks for playing!
Clinton has been called the winner of the Democratic race – pretty easy win by the looks of it too
Romney is holding on well and making a good race of it. Huckabee needs to pass Rudy if he is going to get any news coverage.
Max – Yes, but Edwards’ vote seems top be holding up, and Obama is close enough to stay alive for now, when you combine the two.
Obama has won more delegates than Hillary, and is getting the insiders vote in the Dems. Hillary was the only one to campaign in Florida, in spite of a pledge not to. She was always going to win there, patricularly with the aging vote, when you looked at the demographics of what happend in SC – about 10% of over 65s voted for Obama. Obama is alive aside Edwards vote/s.
Certainly looks like Clinton has brought out the female vote in Florida – 59/41. Virtually the opposite of the Repug proportion of females – 44/56
Huckabee is gaining on Guliani – 20,000 votes in it.
jv, I agree, considering this is a dud state where nobody but those who have time on their hands would bother voting, the results isn’t too bad.
Open Question: Would Edwards, if offered, accept the role of VP to Obama in exchange for pulling out and openly endorsing? He’s only 54, and you would think that his only chance now of the presidency would be to run as the ‘virtual incumbent’ eight years from now…
It would do no ends of damage to the Clinton campaign as well – very few people seem to actively dislike Edwards.
Max @ 31- “Open Question: Would Edwards, if offered, accept the role of VP to Obama in exchange for pulling out and openly endorsing?”
That would be great team, but the hard-heads in the party would probably say it could be attacked as 2 inexperienced blow-ins together. The way they think, they’d rather an experienced steady-as-she-goes VP candidate who would help balance the perceived inexperience of Obama.
Not saying they’re right in principle though, because it would objectively be the best option for the US if Obama & Edwards got the top jobs.
The open rumour of course is that Edwards is being lined up as an Obama A-G. I don’t know how reliable that is.
But anyway, I doubt it. Edwards retains whatever ability he has to leverage a deal as long as he stays in, and he wouldn’t want to completely burn his bridges with the most likely nominee.
Hey Pancho…the US system is so confusing to follow.
You say that Obama has won more delegates than Clinton but the last time I looked (pre FL) she had won something in the 200’s while Obama was in the 100’s.
Am I missing something?
If Obama gets the nod, he will want a more moderate counterbalance in his running mate. I doubt he would choose Edwards.
It’s certainly a thumping win for Hillary, but in the circumstances it can’t be considered a thumping endorsement. It’s a win in a meaningless primary, but a win nonetheless. It could, of course, be a harbinger of things to come on Super Tuesday as the large states rally to Hill-Billy. We’ll soon see.
On the other side, I don’t see how it could be interpreted as anything but a humuliating rejection of Rudy. Florida has heard his well financed and loudly trumpeted message and responded with the Floridian Finger.
Well the US is the land of law suits so IF Obama is in front of Hilary at the convention by the difference in the florida delegates each ‘notionally’ won,
the lawyers eyes would be gleaming
FG
The Floridian Finger…
Beautiful.
stark- Hill-Billy is ahead on delegates because of the Superdelegates. Obama has won more “voting” delegates.
FG – “Floridian Finger” ? How ornate. Is that in the same vein as a florid finger, as in flowery?
CNN has called it for McCain.
RUDY TO PULL OUT TOMORROW AND ENDORSE MCCAIN
Glen! Oh the humanity!
http://thepage.time.com/
MSNBC is reporting that Times is implying that Giuliani is going to drop out to endorse McCain because a senior aide refused to deny the story.
Gah. Hearsay at its finest. But it wouldn’t surprise me, Giuliani has stuffed this campaign up from the get go.
Stark – some of the estimates at this stage, like CNN’s, include superdelegates who are nominated by the party and are generally members of the National Committee or something similar.
Most of the estimates assume that Hillary will win the majority of these superdelegates. At this stage that is probably a fair guess, but it is only a guess. Continued good showings by Obama, as well as support from the Kennedys and others could sway these numbers.
In any case, as far as delegates who have been voted for by the people count, Obama is ahead of Hillary.
JV – I suspect that, if it’s a flower then it’s a thistle – and Rudy is getting the point.
The Democrats can’t afford months of infighting and uncertainty over their nominee against a settled Republican ticket. In the extremely unlikely event that the race is still open by the end of June I am sure that all concerned will disappear into a room and hammer out a deal.
41 It was always an amazing strategy for a candidate to come into the race this far into the primaries and deprive himself of months of media coverage. Last I heard he was out of money to pay his campaign workers too. In typical Rudy fashion their wages were converted to TV ads and all to no avail.
Numbers of delegates from Iowa, NH, Nevada and SC are:
Obama 70, Clinton 57, Edwards 29.
annnd FOX and AP calling for McCain as well now.
Onto Super Tuesday
Martin B – as long as that deal involved giving the Presidency to Team Clinton, I am sure they would accept.
Sorry, my numbers at 47 are wrong – they are from here: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/, and assume superdelegate votes as well for the 4 states. But they are thereabouts.
All hail President McCain.
Stark,
If you are looking at the CNN site, they include both ‘plegded delegates’ and ’super delegates’. Pledged delegates are the ones that have been elected through the primary process – they have to vote for whichever candidate they were elected for. Super delegates are party officials, govenors, members of congress, past presidents, etc. – they can vote for whoever they want. Obama has won more pledged delegates while Hilary has the support of more of the party machine, the super delegates.
About a quarter of the dems convention are super delegates. CNN explains it well here http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/02/delegate.explainer/index.html
We should also all remember when we are critisizing this process that primary elections are not a formal part of the US electoral system. They are internal preselections for the parties. That is why there are different rules in each state – caucuses, open primaries, closed, etc. Its also why some delegates ‘wont be seated’ – internal rules. Just like the ALP and Libs have some crazy internal processes for their preselections, so too in the US. Its all internal Dem and GOP stuff.
Goodbye Rudy, but after Florida he has more delegates than Kucinic.
Now here’s an interesting thing. The results at
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#FL
tally to 98%.
The figures of Obama, Edwards and Kucinich all calculate out to the % shown (when rounded). But Clinton’s votes when held against the total votes displayed come out at 52%, not the 50% shown. What gives?
Diogenes – From your Time link. Hope he’s right – all the way to Tuesday:
“HALPERIN’S TAKE: Seven Reasons Why the Kennedy Endorsement is a Big Deal. While endorsements don’t usually matter much, Edward Kennedy’s does because:
1. He has a huge following with Hispanics, a big deal in California and other Super Tuesday states, and one of Obama’s weaknesses.
2. The symbolic Kennedy family thing — the ultimate message of change, viability, Democratic legitimacy, and youthful excitement.
3. The national press will be obsessed with the story for days and days to come, with no downside for Obama; the local press coverage when Kennedy travels for Obama will be ginormous.
4. It sends a message to other senators and superdelegates that it is OK to be for Obama — they don’t have to be afraid of the Clintons.
5. He has a huge following among working-class, traditional Democrats, one of Obama’s weaknesses.
6. He has a huge following among union households, another of Obama’s weaknesses.
7. He has a huge following among older Democrats, yet another of Obama’s weaknesses.”
Geez JV, thats quite a list of Obama weaknesses. Does he have any strengths apart from brilliant rhetoric?? And does anyone really listen to Kennedy anymore?
Yes FG, there are a few soft spots, but he’s very strong among black middle-class male academics between the ages of 46 and 52.
It doesn’t matter what a Kennedy says, it’s more just the fact that they exist, hopefully in one’s proximity if one is a candidate.
#54 – No: 8 – He was a coward and left a girl behind to drown at Chappaquiddick.
As well as the ones displayed on the website, Joseph Biden Jr., Christopher J. Dodd, Mike Gravel and Bill’ Richardson III are actually on the ballot paper despite all except Gravel having pulled out.
These candidates must be getting ~2% of the vote in total.
Dade (Miami): Clinton 53, Obama 38 (Cubans and Blacks)
Broward (Fort Lauderdale): Clinton 58, Obama 31 (Retirees, Gays and Jews)
Palm Beach (Palm Beach): Clinton 60, Obama 28 (Retirees, Jews)
Duval (Jacksonville): Clinton 35, Obama 47 (Blacks)
Orange: Clinton 48, Obama 39 (rich Whites)
Escambia (Pensacola): Clinton 35, Obama 35 (Blacks, poor Whites)
Same pattern – all the Democrat voting blocks are for Clinton except the blacks.
(By the way Ted Kennedy got 23% in the Florida primary in 1980.)
McCain looks like a dead man walking and his oratory skill makes watching paint dry an exciting sport. I pray the GOP elects him.
Orange Co = Orlando
Well Steve, it appears my predicition of yesterday was spot on, though I did expect the battle between Grandpa and Mitt to be even closer than it was. Still, the outcome isn’t close – 57 delegates to Grandpa and zip to Mitt.
Yes, Biden and Richardson are getting about 0.9% each and Gravel and Dodd are each getting about 0.3%.
Note to Gravel and Kucinich: two candidates who are not running are doing better than you. Perhaps you should reconsider your strategy
Rudy has always said he’d make an announcement tomorrow if he lost, and he’s not bad. I believe he’ll pull out tomorrow and endorse his friend McCain (there are lots of good jobs he could get in a McCain Admin). Romney’s only hope then would be for Huck to pull out and endorse him which he will not do. Huck will go with McCain leaving Romney dead in the water. Unless the hardhead neocons can pull off an enormous coup, we have a definite Republican nomination for POTUS in Senator McCain. If Romney is persuaded against going up against McCain/Huck/Giuliani, with the carrot of being the preferred candidate for 2012 (remember Macca has said only one term), the Repugs will have a united front against a divided Dem campaign in Obama survives Super Tues.
Whoops! First line should be “lost bad” rather than “not bad”. What was I thinking!!
Compare the latest polling (here: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/florida.html) to the actual result. It was right on the money for Clinton at 50% but the undecideds appear to have broken overwhelmingly for Obama. This continues the pattern from South Carolina of understating Obama’s vote albeit by only about 6% here instead of by the double figures seen in SC. But then he campaigned in SC. Hillary campaigned in Florida and only trod water.
Whilst Hillary won convincingly in Florida, one statistic of note is that there was significantly more older people voting then younger people.
One could hypothesise that more younger people would vote for Obama, but felt that their vote would not mean anything in a situation where no delegates will be seated.
Although I’m sure the demographics in Florida have substantially more retirees then most other states which would also explain the discrepancy.
Adam, Tq
@ 70 – That analysis is in line with the steady trend back to Obama overall on the polls. If there is an alignment later of the magnetic forces of: Edwards’ delegates, Kennedy endorsement, independent/undecided delegates, great speeches, luck, no stuff-ups, more Clinton errors and unpleasantness, continuing upward poll trend, effective lobbying, great Dem convention etc, then Obama’s still in with a chance.
Sorry I mean @ 70
Try again @ 69 Bollard
Rolling poll average vote for Clinton/Obama/Edwards in the major Super Tuesday states:
AL 43/28/16 (very good for HRC in a black state)
AZ 37/27/15
CA 44/32/11
CO 32/34/17 (surprisingly good for BHO)
CT 41/27/9
GA 35/41/13
IL 22/51/15
MA 59/22/11
MN 47/22/16
MO 43/24/28
NJ 46/28/10
NY 50/27/10
TN 34/20/16
The last poll in FL was 52/28/13. The actual result is 50/33/14. So the late-deciders were worth maybe 5% to Obama. Even if they break the same way on Super T, that won’t be enough for him to win anywhere except CO, GA and IL. Only CO would be any kind of surprise.
Diogenes,
Where has McCain said ‘only one term’ ?
He’s said once or twice he is only taking ‘one term at a time’ but that’s about it – should he say from the get go that he is only going for 4 years he will achieve very little in his Administration – a Democratic caucus isn’t going to try too hard to cooperate with a guy who they only need to worry about for a few years before there is a new election, as opposed to one who can make their life hell for nearly eight years.
That’s assuming, of course, they keep their majority (it seems to be the conventional wisdom anyway).
@74 Try what again? You imply that I’m trying desperately to spin for Obama. That’s unlikely seeing as I don’t even like him (or any of the candidates for that matter except perhaps Kuchinic – and I’m not even sure how to spell his name!). I just think he has a chance of winning. Opinion polling in a politics free beauty contest (which is what US primaries generally are) are less reliable than in Australian elections. They have fewer “rusted on” voters and voluntary voting.
If McCain is elected he will run again in 2012 (when he will be 75) unless he is actually on a slab. Power is a wonderful rejuvenator (and an aphrodisiac too).
The peculiar congressional arithmetic makes it almost certain that even if a Repub candidate is elected President, the Dems will retain control of Congress, and will probably increase their majority in the Senate, where individual contests count for much more.
The Clinton/Obama P/VP team is looking a pretty good bet at this stage. Are Sportingbet etc offering odds on that?
Of course the McCain VP will be interesting? Will he try to assuage the conservatives? Maybe Brownback from Kansas?
Adam #75. There’s no doubt that Clinton should win Super Tuesday hands down according to the polls and this has to be the most likely result. I was only pointing to an intriguing possibility. It’s true also that a 5% turnaround (I was basing it on the poll average which makes it a 7% but that’s a quibble) would not be sufficient to turn the gap in California et al around. But if Obama’s vote is understated by anything like the extent it was in North Carolina (where the polls were out by double digits) then he has more than a decent chance.
Romney would be a much weaker candidate than McCain, but part of me just wants to see the hard right squirm, see them on McCain here:
http://corner.nationalreview.com
and the loveable Ann Coulter here:
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24635&s=rcmp
Primary polling is like measuring a cloud. How much of Hillary’s support is for her specifically and how much for her as the best-known Democrat among less engaged Democrat voters? The later will erode.
HISTORY should warn us all that geat orators like Obama can be dangerous as they can more easily avoid policy scrutiny & substance
(compared to an uninspiring speaker like McCain or Hilary)
I’ve yet to hear a pro Obama bloger here advance policys Obama stands for
(as opposed to negative Hilary reasons)
Finnegans@60, I’d stay away from those FOX ‘fact’ sheets. Nasty stuff.
ESJ #80,
McCain has a problem with his VP candidate. Given that he’s already an ‘outsider’ within the GOP’s power structure, they will be pushing him to take on a GOP apparatchik. However, such a VP candidate is very likely to turn off the voters. If McCain goes for a VP candidate who is more likely to appeal to the voters, he’ll pi$$-off the party, and will receive their half-hearted (at best) support in the actual election campaign. And even there, he’s got issues. Being as he appeals to neither the “liberal” (too hawkish) nor the “conservative” (too socially progressive)segments of the US population, he’d need to (somehow) find a VP-candidate who appeals to both at once. Not easy.
My comment on McCain only going one term was admittedly too black and white. This is what he actually said and the commentary. He says the problems of the US need a quick fix and it is an advantage to look at them from a four year rather than eight year POV.
McCain May Seek Only One Term
When 71 year-old John McCain was asked whether he had the stamina to serve as president for eight years, he responded by suggesting that, if he is elected, he might not seek reelection:
“If I said I was running for eight years, I’m not sure that would be a vote-getter,” McCain said.
Asked later to elaborate, McCain said that every president evaluates his progress after two or three years:
“My health is good, my campaign schedule is heavier than anybody else’s, and I’ve said many times I can out-campaign anybody,” McCain said. “I think the decision as to whether to run for reelection has to do with the circumstances at the time. I really do. You shouldn’t run for eight years, because then you think you’ve got eight years to get these things done.”
McCain’s single term gambit is a better approach to the age issue than Ronald Reagan’s 1980 promise to undergo testing for senility.
About Hillary and Alabama. Remember blacks arn’t allowed to vote in Alabama
From the JMart blog.
“Rudy Giuliani is “very likely” to get behind John McCain tomorrow at the Reagan library in California, accoring to a source close to Giuliani’s campaign.
But, this source cautions, it’s not yet a done deal.
The conversation between the two camps is still ongoing.”
I wonder what position Rudy is asking for in return. Please don’t let it be Secretary of State or Secretary of War (oops should be Defence).
Also I reckon Obama is a good chance for Kansas. Though i haven’t seen any polls for there, his family roots and the extremely popular governors assistance should be very helpful.
Ron @83. Obama stands for much the same thing as Hilary. He is (on paper) marginaly to the right of her on Healthcare and marginally to the left of her on Iraq. Both want to rattle the sabres at Iran. Both will do as they’re told once in power.
The last two Democrat presidents presided over reversals of the reforms that has been brought in by FDR and LBJ. Clinton’s demolition of social welfare was the starkest example. And yet Bill Clinton probably stood on a more left-wing platform in ‘92 than either Hilary or Obama today.
The only real significance of this contest is then symbolic: first female pres v first black pres. Take your pick. The only thing that exercises my opinion either way is disgust at the Clinton’s strategy of getting Bill to do some coded race baiting, thereby writing off the black demographic and guaranteeing the loss of North Carolina but painting Obama into the corner as the “black candidate” in the process and (they hope) winning the main game.
I wouldn’t mind seeing that strategy unravel – not because of what it means regarding the occupancy of the White House but because it would be a positive thing for racial politics in the US.
Ron- Obama’s health policy is excellent. I will include the link to Atul Gawande’s review of it in the NYT (Gawande is the leading medical writer in the world at the moment IMO).
http://select.nytimes.com/2007/05/31/opinion/31gawande.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
#84 – Pancho – FOX ‘fact’ sheets? Please explain.
Goodbye Rudy you insufferable creep! And whoever McCain picks as VP is a more important choice than it usually is, as they may very well have to take over if he kicks the bucket
This is also an interesting read on the economy issue http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/22/AR2008012202614_pf.html
asanque @ 11 said:
Given that U.S. politicians can have a direct say in who can and cannot vote (Florida state Secretary of State/Repub state campaign co-chair Katherine Harris removal of thousands of black voters from the rolls before the 2000 election), the hanging chad nonsense, the doubts about the Iowa voting machines in 2004, that the electors pledged to presidential candidates don’t actually have to vote for them in the electoral college, and other ‘interesting’ electoral idiosyncracies you’d have to conclude that any similarity between the U.S. presidential voting system and democracy is purely coincidental.
Diogenes @ 67 said:
FBI director or maybe A-G?
So 83 – Reasons to support Obama over HIllary include a superior economic stimulus package, a more consistant foreign policy especially regarding Iraq, a more realistically implementable health care policy, and a greater ability for attracting bipartisan support for his proposals as demonstrated in Illinois.
The reasons NOT to support Hillary should be supplemental to that, not the entirety of the reason. (Eg her campaigns ‘he won south carolina JUST LIKE JESSE JACKSON DID’)
Those Kennedys !
Obama is now tied with Clinton for Connecticut. Wonder what changed
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/connecticut/election_2008_connecticut_democratic_presidential_primary
An interesting bit about the superdelegate battle here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/29/AR2008012903570.html?hpid=topnews
This bit from Richardson, would indicate a leaning to Obama:
‘Richardson said: “If I do endorse, it’s going to be a gut feeling. It’s not going to be about statistics, about past ties. I’ve been on the campaign trail with both of them. I feel that I know them. I feel I know the issues. I feel I know what makes them both tick.”‘
That would be a coup.
And Scotty, from your link, this about a ’soft vote’ for Hills in California: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_commentary/commentary_by_robert_d_novak/hillary_s_brown_firewall
#83
Ron:
Have you tried the following link?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Barack_Obama
For more detailed info – go to the Obama site and read the issues covering civil liberties, disabilities, economy, education, energy and environment, ethics, faith, family, fiscal and foreign policy, healthcare, homeland security, immigration, Iraq, rural communities, principals of active citizenship, seniors and social security, technology, and polices concerning veterans.
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/
The Repug blogs are in a meltdown between the Rombots and the moderates at the moment. The hard right are urging their supporters to vote for that well-known Republican candidate Barack Obama. WTF is it with these people? I’ve heard of Obama having cross-over appeal but this is ridiculous.
http://www.republicansforobama.org/?q=homepage
Read the health care policy of Obama & Edwards……similar to ours
not sure thats a recommendation but their employer based system is a disaster.
Obama’s economic stimulus package….
Such an economic policy would lead to a drop in the US dollar & ultimately inflation breakout when their economy is most vunerable.
Definitively not a Wayne Swan calibre.
Foreign Affairs…
Not a strong point overall for any recent US President
For anyone having trouble understanding the American system, try this article, it explains it as well as anyone else has. Although it still leaves you confused. The simplest way I could put it is, their are 50 states. That equals 50 systems. Multiply that by 2 because their are 2 parties with different systems. Answer: One hell of a mess.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jan24.html
96 Erytnicam, [a greater ability for attracting bipartisan support for his proposals as demonstrated in Illinois.]
Just what is this Illinois bipartisan support you speak of?
I think all the pundits are missing a very important point here about the significance of Hillary’s win in Florida. Everyone seems to have dismissed it. I think it is very significant win.
This was a primary vote that is devoid of the candidates’ campaign, spins, lies, half-truths, pressure etc etc. The people were left alone in peace and quiet to make up their own mind. They decided it is to be Hillary 51% Obama 33%. I would have this type of election anytime.
All I can say is Go, Girl, Go.
Forgive the crudeness of wikipedia No. 104 – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obama#State_legislature
Finnigans, the problem is that as it was a dead rubber many voters who would otherwise have headed for the polls didn’t bother. Whether this would have benefitted Hill-Billy or BHO (or neither) we’ll never know.
72 jaundiced view: Not if you follow the polls. From here on it’s Hillary all the way.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
100
davidoff , thanks had been over that site.
The pity is neither Candidate is really satisfactory.
But Hiliary’s errors are highlighted by the media plus there’s a strong anti Hiliary factor both here & in the US resulting in less policy scrutiny of Obama then there should be.
Whereas on the Republican side they’ve all had the blow torch applied to them
Finnigans- Wash your mouth out with soap! Or cut your typing fingers off. What is left for politicians if the campaign, spin, lies, half-truths, pressure etc don’t happen? It would be the end of civilisation as we know it. Imagine if the voters were allowed to make their mind up in peace. I shudder to think what would happen. We might even vote for the best candidate for the job. You are a very dangerous individual!!
point of clarity re the ‘kennedy thing”
… Senator Edward Kennedy, Congressman Patrick Kennedy, and Caroline Kennedy have endorsed Obama.
However, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, Kerry Kennedy, and Robert Kennedy Jr. (all children of the late Robert Kennedy) all endorse Hilary Clinton.
Ferny , a non ‘Finnigans’ Florida campaign would result in a Hillary victory.
The difference of 18% is too large to reasonably argue Obama would have won…..but it may have been alot closer
#110 – yes, I deserve to be punished to death. Just thinking of those 76 virgins.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch. Robert Kennedy’s children – RFK Jr., Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and Kerry Kennedy – endorsed Hillary in LA Times.
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/29/the-kennedys-caucus/?ref=opinion
Ron @ 112: What you say is the most likely interpretation I agree.
It’s possible that Hillary’s last minute electioneering in FL brought out her supporters; it’s possible that more of BHO’s supporters stayed home than Hillary’s. It’s probable that the dead rubber skewed the results but we don’t know by how much (or in favour of who). In my view, Hillary would still have won by at least 10%, and probably close to the 18% recorded.
The Finnigans just when i was about to accept your appology u mention the Kennedys….hmmm
The Cricket Monkey speech is on Skynews right now.
Convincing win for Hillary – and as others have mentioned this proves she’s the ‘natural choice’ for Democratic voter. Obama will need to campaign to win. He’s only got a few days left to next week’s super Tuesday.
It’s ironic, but Obama is also in grave danger of being a party establishment candidate if his endorsements continue. This will run counter to his messages of ‘change’ and ‘Washington is toxic and only I can fix it’.
McCain won, but again only with just 36% (ie. 64% wanted someone else).
He’s actually going to be easy to beat for the Democrats and not just because of his age. Why? Just in the last few days he’s admitted what most in Washington already knew – he’s “not really an expert on the economy”… Obama or Hillary will be able to beat him with this quote all through the General Election campaign when the economy will be even more at the forefront. The only way McCain has a chance of winning in November is if national security is on the radar again – ie. he needs an Iran or a terror attack.
Finnigans- You must be male. This is what Osma says a female suicide bomber gets. Warning-Political incorrectness alert.
In a new tape played by Al Jazeera today, Osama bin Laden reiterated that only male suicide bombers will be the recipients of the promised 72 virgins. “In the name of Allah, I say to you: No! Only men will inherit the virgins. It is the woman’s place to please her man; to enjoy the company of the other 71 women; and to care for the resulting 789 children. However, every woman bomber will receive a vacuum cleaner as a generous parting gift.”
John Ryan , McCain in fact will be hard to beat
Vietnam POW who on all opinion polls easily beats all Democrat & Republican candidates for credibility.
Defence is always the no 1 issue ….he wins this issue even with those who oppose the Iraq involvement.
Economy…he co sponsored with the Democtats a limit on Washington expenditure .He has an experience advantage
McCain is getting ‘independent’ votes & left Republican votes
Both Hillary & Obama have weakness’s & in my view not great candidates
Sorry Ron 119, I disagree. When has being a Vietnam vet ever helped in being a candidate for US President?? You can ask Presidents Kerry and Kerrey and McCain himself about that one!
Defence is NOT always the no 1 issue. 1992? 1996? 1976? 2000?
There is nothing to suggest this year it will be. All polling has Iraq (which is a McCain/Repub negative anyway) behind the economy in importance for both Republicans and Democrats. Terrorism is also far behind the Economy as an issue.
As I said the only way defence gets back on the radar is if there is a terror attack or Iran acts up or some other unforeseen event occurs.
Phew!
The Zimmer frames of Florida have spoken! Well, not exactly marched their respective candidates to victory, but don’t stand between a phalanx of zimmer frames and a safe bet!
Mackers squeaked it in past Romnoidy, and Hill-Billy herded those Zimmers like gauchos (what’s Cuban for gaucho? LOL). It’ll be interesting to see the age/race breakdowns, but essentially the Clintons took a Pyrrhic victory with no delegates. (Not to say they won’t get lots Feb 5 of course!).
Still, Obama only needs to poll more than 30% consistently to get enough delegates to stay in the race, and the more he stays in the race…
But hey bludgers, so many posts and so many links, I don’t know which one to read first. It’s a bloody smorgasboard!
But alas, where is Glen? I thought he’d be here to give a concession speech about what a great POTUS Rudy would have made, if only the voters of Florida weren’t so damned contrary!
Oh, well, at least Obama got double the votes of Rudy, so they can’t really all be that stupid!
Howard-Loser
Rudy -Loser
I can’t wait for the next endorsement! It’s the Glen “Kiss of Death”!
The CNN polls showed McCain had the best chance of beating Hillary or Obama ,
so to suggest he will be an easy candidate to beat defies the polls.
The reasons are listed in my blog
Romney , Huckle are real conservatives and much easier to beat
How unpleasant the Maltese is back!
McCain can beat Hillary. Probably can beat Obama too. But that races would be a closer call. Also the age factor is easier to bring up if you are running a 47 year old man against a 72 year old compared to a 60 year woman.
If McCain is elected president, you could hardly see him running for another term. Therefore, his VP is going to have a head start for 2012.
There is a rumour that McCain is a Manchurian candidate for North Vietnam and Obama is the Manchurian candidate for Indonesia. So where is “Hanoi Jane” fits in all of these?
Another interesting link about Indonesia is that Lippo, one of the largest company in Indonesia, via the Riady family, was a contributor and on very good terms with the Clintons. Lippo used to own a bank in Little Rock Arkansas. The plot gets thicken.
In which case Finnigans the Chinese would be extremely unhappy because they dont appear to have programmed anyone yet.
Can somebody please explain to me…
If, for example, Mr Edwards dropped out tomorrow, what would happen to his 26 committed delegates? Would they ‘vote’ for whoever he endorses, or be free to vote for who they wanted… in which case do they publicly state their intentions?
(obviously I’m wondering what happens if he gets out with a few hundred delegates after Super Tuesday, should the head to head race be tight).
Is the Republican system the same?
#126 – The Chinese don’t have to. They already own the US Treasury. They are laughing all the way to Wall St.
Well it looks like the pollsters were right about Rudi’s bad tactics. McCain has got the republican nomination sewn up now IMO. If Guiliani steps down its all over.
As for Clinton winning, looks like the pollsters got it right again. Seems now we are coming to the bigger states teh polls are getting more reliable, or is it just coincidence?
Anyway, I have been saying for a while now that it will be Clinton vs McCain and that seems correct. The worse the US economy gets the better her chances of wining POTUS will become. And its going to get worse.
Interestingly, I saw the first few minutes of Letterman on TV the othernight and he started with a joke about Bush’s state of the union address being his last. He got a BIG cheer as soon as he finished those words (Bush’s last speech…) before he had even got to the punch line. If that is indicative of the position of the Republicans, and the MSM attitude to Bush now, then McCain has no chance of turning sentiment around IMO. He just won’t get a chance to get his message across. The airwaves will be full of jokes about the end of the Bush era. Its a pity to me, as I respect McCain far more than Bush, Cheney and Rove, but to me this contest is already decided (President will be Hillary Clinton for sure) even this far out.
my 2 cents
Mr “Unconscionable” is incontinent again!
You can slag me as much as you wish in your snide and utterly creepy way, but we’ve all seen you for what you really are.
I forgot to thank William for that word, it’s more than apposite it this case.
KR hope u are not referring to our resident closet Lib Edward Toff as we allow Glen in & so we should the barbarians
Wouldn’t you just like to waterboard Ann Coulter?
(Just joking!)
What a twisted little thing she is:
Of course, I might lie constantly too, if I were seeking the Republican presidential nomination after enthusiastically promoting amnesty for illegal aliens, Social Security credit for illegal aliens, criminal trials for terrorists, stem-cell research on human embryos, crackpot global warming legislation and free speech-crushing campaign-finance laws.
I might lie too, if I had opposed the Bush tax cuts, a marriage amendment to the Constitution, waterboarding terrorists and drilling in Alaska.
…ah McCain, you’ve done it again! And thereby upset the self-annointed custodians of all things ugly and deranged in the lunar right.
This is going to be one hell of a show!
Ron, we’re under a big tent here, but the pompous clowns that throw the elephant dung are less than sanitary.
I don’t mind a bit of healthy argument, but low, creepy stuff deserves what it gets!
KR 132
Exactly right. McCain has so many weaknesses that the Clintons will exploit. And with the media tiring of the Republicans and the economy on the nose, there will be little sympathy for the “other side”. Again, I have nothing against McCain, but I just don’t see how he is going to win the big race, given that he will now win the Republican nomination.
As for Coulter, yes well if water-boarding is not torture, then she shouldn’t object to its use on herself. But I would, even on her.
Edwards can’t force his delegates to support anyone, but as they are handpicked for loyalty, he can say ‘If you supported me, I want you to support x’ and they will inevitably do so.
134
Socrates
And they reckon Democrats eat their own! She’s sulphuric acid, pure, concentrated hate.
I know the NY chapter of NOW got toey with Uncle Ted, but at least they didn’t offer to boil him in oil and hoist his corpse to half mast! Sheesh, there’s not a skerrick of decency in her diatribe, and if you took her name off it, and changed a few words, it would sit comfortably on any loopy left blog!
The irony!
So, yes, McCain for the Republicans.
As George used to say, (well, before they actually did!): “Bring it on”!
KR #132: It says something that the likes of Coulter think McCain’s soft because, while wanting to bomb the crap out of most of the Middle East, he’s a bit squemish about torture.
I was able to catch a bit of Fox News this afternoon and saw the republicans give their speeches towards the end of counting. Glen would be disappointed now that Giuliani is history. Although I will say this, if it was a beauty contest, Rudy would have won the ugliest looker candidate with no contest. Man, this bloke could crack mirrors I reckon lol.
Speaking of looks, Romney looks pretty good for a president, until he opens his mouth that is. Maybe he should shut up for the rest of the campaign, it could improve his chances.
On a more serious note McCain’s victory was of significance, he has firmed a full point for the presidency in from 4.3 to 3.3, wheras Romney, todays other big loser, has eased from 9.00 to 18.00.
KR , yes ‘pompous’ is such a delightful description of the Toff that pompous should be a preceding adjective. Many thanks.
Everytime I see Ann Coulter , it improves my image of my mother in law
Ooh aah the Maltese has bared its tiny fangs!!!
And now the Pekinese is joining in too!
LOL — try a little bit harder boys!
Did you plagiarise that Pekinese?
ESJ
maltese…pekinese…2 or 4 legged? Just asking. And ‘hem’ is the vowel correct?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WXdg5y8al8
btw is KR now the Falcon?
That David Brooks is worth reading, (again!)
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/30/what-florida-taught-me/?hp
…and warns people not to get to sure of things.
He’s actually a very likeable chap, for a conservative.
137
Robert Bollard
yeah, I can never figure how the cogs can get so out of whack that they can equate torturing a ’suspect’ (and their ‘error’ rate is abnormally high!) with moral certainty of their holding the high ground.
Yep, just torture any towel head with the name Mohammad and you’re sure to get it right, well, occasionally!
It’s so creepy, twisted and utterly sicko, it’s beyond me. That McCain at least paid lip service to some ideal of human decency (let alone the ‘quaint’ Geneva Convention) against a barrage of these moral zombies is a huge mark of character in my opinion.
143
codger
you amaze,perplex and entertain in a most cryptic fashion! keep it up!
For the Ann Coulter fans, Al Franken has a little fun at her expense on YouTube.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHx0oLrGjKY
Is the Dems trying to snatch defeat from the jaw of victory with the delegate fiasco of Florida and Michigan?
An anlaysis by a former Clinton strategist of what is happening with the Democrats:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_commentary/commentary_by_dick_morris/obama_and_kennedy_raise_the_stakes
And for more fun with Ann Coulter
http://www.talkingpresidents.com/products-af-coulter.shtml
148
The Finnigans
It can get ugly (uglier?) if Hillary Clinton does not get a big majority of delegates, and she tries to invite these disallowed delegates.
Read this, it spells out the twists and turns:
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/01/30/hillary/
147
TurningWorm
Reminds me of someone! When caught red handed putting words into people’s mouths, she just swishes her blonde hijab (it almost hides her true ugliness!), and asks: “Is this just going to be about me?”
Pure egotistical pathological liar, and creepy.
Glad I got on McCakin at 6.50 before Florida!
McCain
It’s been a while since I read this, but it’s still probably the best flensing of Coulter’s beastly prose by anyone.
Here’s Hitchens on Coulter:
http://www.theliberal.co.uk/hitchens.htm
A little more on the Al Gore speculations …
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Gore_endorse_Obama/2008/01/28/68076.html
Jed, you should cut your profit margin by betting back on Hillary. It’s easy money. That’s how to win punting. The form is secondary. You have read the market well, now reap the rewards.
What a shame the Republicans are going to back a Senior Citizen for the Whitehouse and not a genuine moderate Republican that could of won them the Presidency in November. Rudy’s tactics weren’t at fault especially since he was trashed from the start of the primaries by all the mass media except Fox. I blame the media more than anything else as they and the pundits couldnt be proved wrong in trashing his strategy so they starved his campaign of air time and when they did report on him it was all negative.
Well to KR and Diogenes who felt threatened by a moderate Republican as it was he who was verbally brutalised by some unsavoury comments is very sad but expected of people like them. To even suggest that someone would use 9/11 for political gain other than to demonstrate their abilities and character is sickening. Giuliani had to mention his leadership skills when he was Mayor during the attack if anybody has the right to demonstrate their character it was the people involved in the aftermath of the attacks and Rudy was front and centre so i cannot see that that means he’s using ‘it’ he was the only one entitled to.
Had he been the Mayor of Miami and done the same things, then you’d have a point but this man was there and he dealt with the crisis hands on.
Giuliani was the only candidate with true Republican policies, tax incentives to buy private health care, tax reform/cuts, national catastrophe fund, tough illegal immigrant plan, keep on the offence against terrorism what a shame the Floridians got duped by the media to vote for McCain. If i was an American id seriously consider not voting now. But its over now McCain will win the nomination, Romney and Huckleberry dont have it in them and the amount of personal jibing between them indicates they wont get the VP spot so i wonder who’ll it be.
Oh and Hillary must be happy she won delegates who wont get into the Convention at Denver LOL! Still i hope she wins the Dems nomination, McCain couldnt beat Obama in a sweet fit.
Wonder if George W Bush will endorse McCain for President as a parting jibe LOL the kiss of death!
Thats it for me tonight so if you want to say nah nah, nah nah nah fine but i wont be here so dont waste Williams bandwidth.
156
davidoff
It appears that Uncle Ted has let the genie out of the bottle, and the other blokes who’ve been dudded, one way or another by Hillary, are revving to have a go to stop her.
Cranky old men may not be the best look, and I didn’t think Ted Kennedy looked anything like one the other day, but it’s a risk the ‘gang four’ will be running. (Especially from the ’sisters’!)
Coulter represents the discard from the wanabe feminists
A perfect dinner date for pompous Toff sneaking in the background like a virus
Must be hard everyday to realize Howardism has gone
I’ll run this through Babel Fish and see if it comes out as intelligible in ANY language:
“Well to KR and Diogenes who felt threatened by a moderate Republican as it was he who was verbally brutalised by some unsavoury comments is very sad but expected of people like them. ”
Oh Glen, we’re soooooooo sorry! If only we hadn’t felt ‘threatened’ by that lovely ‘moderate’ Rudy!
Oh, Glen, please come back another time! We love it!
“Verbally brutalised”! Tell that to some of Rudy’s victims!
How does one take this stuff without laughing to death?
Oh, and yes, I actually think Adam is right: McCain is the only human on offer, and at least a capable and compassionate one who will not always bend over for the neocons.
(But his fascination with bombing Iran is seriously disturbing!)
Umm Glen- I’m quite happy for McCain to win. I believe he’s a moderate Republican. Actually, I’d prefer him to Hillary. And I actually don’t detest Giuliani but I thought he’d stuffed up all along.
160
Ron
Not only has Howardism gone, but Australia gets some self-respect back as the Rudd government acknowledges the pain of indigeous people:
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Australia-Aborigines.html?hp
…and we appear like civilised people to the world again.
Howardism crawled back under a small-minded nasty rock again, from whence it came. Pity all it’s adherents don’t do the same, eh?
Rudy has left rhe building but he did say
America is the greatest Country in the world that has ever existed and Americans have built the greatest civilization in history.
and all us Aussies developed was the Hills clothes hoist
KR160
Dont often comment, but am turning 40 on 13th February. Apart from a 3rd daughter due within a day or two of the date, what better present than to feel proud in ones country again.
Should be an allround surreal time!
163
Diogenes
No Dio, he “didn’t ever vote for a tax cut in his life” (except that he did!), and so, ipso facto, based on totally incorrect ‘facts’, he cannot be a ‘moderate’ Republican.
Go figure?
Bizarre, just totally bizarre. But then to see Rudy Giuliani as some sort of ‘moderate’ anything is totally disconnected from reality! No one could be more vindictive, aggresive, self-serving, petty and downright weird as Mr Mayor, but poor deluded Glen was upset that the poor shrinking violet might have been ‘verbally brutalised’!
OMG, it’s like a parallel universe, but everything is in a mirror, and Rudy is sweet and wholesome, and he’ll build a giant fence to save them from all those exploding Mexicans, and the Secret Service will wire tap all non-members of the Rudy Giuliani President for Life Foundation, and anyone who ever voted Democrat will be detained and ‘re-educated’ while their children watch…
OMG, and they let him go! Oh, the humanity!
glen
in light of rudi’s demise and mccains probable nomination,will we have a dem or repub for president
adam
still tipping hill or will the dems infighting etc affect the voters pysche
william
have you tipped anyone (please excuse if you have,just interested in your opinion)
166
Harold
Congrats to you, and congrats to us all!
Who said symbols don’t count? Oh that’s right, the guy who owned all the symbols!
119 Ron. You keep forgetting the Republicans are stone cold motherless broke. The Democrats have a massive war chest. I think it is at least 4 times what George Bush jnr had, and he won because of money!
Glen if you’re still there, I’m sure you would be pleased to know that Ed St J reckons Rudd is going super! Just to make sure beyond any doubt that K07 wins again in 10, we should keep a running tally of all the things the PM does this term in office. So far;
- signed Kyoto Protocol,
- given ACCC more powers to monitor petrol prices,
- plans to withdraw troops from Iraq,
- given hospitals more cash to cut waiting lists,
- acting on assisting the homeless,
- will unite people by saying sorry for stolen generation.
Bloody hell, that’s more than what Coconut had done in his last term already. 100+ seats in the next election, here we go!
Further to 170, the Republicans are deserting a sinking ship. Scandal is the main reason.
well done Harold
On this site we have 2 Libs…glen a supporter of the failed Rudy whose claim to fame is his extreme views on border refugees & the closet Lib pompous Toff
3 daughters Harold , you’ll have your hands full when they’re in their early teens
172
Chris B
And now that Rush and Ann (Rush-Ann Roulette anyone?) are firing away at MCain, you kind of wait for the explosion if they manage to do anything but shoot blanks. But rest assured they’ll keep plugging away until election day!
Gotta love it! Best show on earth!
Thanks Ron, They call it comeuppance!
And I have been here long enough to know our 2 Libs. All credit to them to still be here i say, although i think one is starting to waiver.
Glen: I’m always bemused at how you supported Senior Citizen Howard at 68 but not Senior Citizen McCain at 71.
In fact: from 158
Why didn’t I hear you saying?
‘What a shame the Liberals are going to back a Senior Citizen for the Whitehouse and not a genuine moderate Liberal that could of won them the election in November. ‘
That would have been consistent.
You could have also taken your next quote (at 158) straight from your after election comments.
‘Howard’s tactics weren’t at fault especially since he was trashed from the start of the primaries by all the mass media except the Ex-Government Gazette. I blame the media more than anything else as they and the pundits couldnt be proved wrong in trashing his strategy so they starved his campaign of air time and when they did report on him it was all negative.’
Refusing to accept fault and blaming others, at least that’s consistent.
Ooh on review of this evening’s posts it seems the Pekinese is snarlier than the Maltese. Guess we can tell which one has been neutered and which one is still “intact”.
The Specials with ‘A Message for You Rudy’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGDQ85Dg-ss
Must be abit stuffy in a closet but like all mice they venture into the real world before scurrying back to the ‘dark side’
and alas for little Johnnie , Rudd has now taken over commentary on cricket …
a daily reminder for the man who lost his own seat & with it his legacy
Gee, some people are sceptics. After all the dragon slaying attempts on Kev, who was equally accused of false promise, what is the problem?
America could hardly be in a worse situation, after decades, decades of allowing the ordinary person to slide into such parlous and perilous personal situations.
At what personal cost, for those whose families and children are constantly engaged, as combatants for America, in war, death, mutilation, expense. At what personal expense for those who can barely live?
I find it difficult to imagine that an ordinary American could continue to contemplate, trust or retain any faith in the Republican way, as represented by the potential leadership, of any candidate.
The youtube Columbia SC, Obama speech represents, invites, stirs, hope. A chance, potential. Thanks to the poster/s, here and elsewhere. I was moved.
Who could fail to be stirred? How is that Obama is able to bring Americans to the voting booth? A singular event.
This is about hope. It is Kennedyesque. I cannot remember if JFK made policy promises, I do remember the tenor of it. Black? And there is the ‘how black’ thing, inasmuch as America deals. Does it matter? Kennedy was against the odds as a Catholic. Did it matter? In the ultimate. No.
Sometimes people go with promise. Especially when every and previous promise is unfailingly unfulfilled.
I remain with Obama. I would consider it a great loss for not only the USA, but the rest of us, if he were not to succeed.
Off topic but possum has a new post showing the Libs as losing more state seats than the nats in recent years, also linked to LP.
Steve , possum’s thread is stating the obvious.
of course the Libs have lost most of the seats…..in metropolitan areas
The Nats have been left with mostly have safe rural seats…the rest are lost
Correction on my part, William. Shall I post again?
Whilst we weren’t paying attention, the US military started to go on the offensive again this month, and subsequently, the US death toll is 37, against 23 for December. Of course, paying Sunni’s to fight someone else (ie Jihadis, Salafists and “al Qaeda”) was only ever going to be a stop gap measure. A ‘commercial break’ if you will, as they are actually paying them about $250/month, to join the ‘Awakening’. (Their corpses, or worse, body parts, keep turning up in alarming numbers with attached notes about being traitors).
McCain, let’s not forget, has staked his entire credibility on his backing the ’surge’, like it was some mythical fountain of victory, and the hard reality is that Iraq is highly unstable, armed, violent, and deeply engaged in a fight to the death between numerous sectarian groups.
McCain is on a highwire act, and could get a very rude shock if someone even so much as bumps the nitroglycerine.
By god, did these guys over invest in a Liberal/Howard victory…
http://www.cafepress.com/election07
Any suggestions on excesss stock, glen?
Agree KR , Iraq will end in US failure…the only question is when
the chaos will increase whenever the sunni or the shia decide
171 – Centre
A few more early achievements:
Rudd has also taken up residence in The Lodge saving the taxpayer mega bucks…he’s also established a team to look at national educational standards…he’s resisted the temptation to slaughtered those senior public servants who had become far too close to the previous government…he has convened the first of many sittings of cabinet outside of Canberra – the list could go on.
In the meantime Nelson and the Libs are still suffocating in the stink left by Howard. The stink is in their clothes and hair – it’s in their nostrils and fills their lungs and they hardly notice. Fancy still trying to defend the rat’s decision to not apologise to the stolen generation. They have no shame.
All this and parliament doesn’t sit for two more weeks. More action than a whole year of life under the Libs.
Steve you have shown no sympathy for Lord Nelson at all
#158
Glen said:
Another view is expressed in a Politico article which focussed more of the inability of Giuliani to leverage the political capital gained from 9/11 as opposed to dredging the event and promoting fear and uncertainty to a population that has moved on.
The last paragraph in the article is telling:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/8200.html
185
Ron
I’ve got a secret for you…(sssh, lean over, and I’ll whipser it, but promise not to tell anyone, ok?)
Very quietly…they’ve actually already ‘lost’ it! In fact, except in the mind of Dick Cheney and George Bush (note use of the singular!), it was never theirs, there was no “Mission Accomplished” or “slam dunk” or “cakewalk” or flowers thrown over their tanks. The stark reality is they walked into something for which they were completely unprepared, despite the deafening warnings that were given to them.
Now, don’t tell, ok?
188
davidoff
Stop that! Stop that this instant!
You’re trying to ‘verbally brutalise’ Rudy! You…you…you monster!!!!
My aborted or still in detention post, subject, my Obama love in, cannot appear, unless William releases it. I have no copy, and it was as impassioned as one could have done at time of night. It is just that I inadvertently posted under my own name, so I assume WB is checking or something.
Anyway, KR and others, it was intended to support Obama, hope, and to sketch a small expose of my understanding of Americans, or anyone really, no longer prepared to hear the eternal, unfulfilled promises. The complete drag on individual hope, beyond all endeavour.
To draw a parallel with the sudden sceptics, who previousely supported Kev, despite the claims of those who reckoned he had no policy.
Hope is a method.
#77
Point of order – we are taking about Barack Obama here – there is no need for spin. Here he is appearing at the American University on January 28th with Patrick, Caroline, and Ted Kennedy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gF6ElJO8Kc
193
Crikey Whitey
Don’t fret Whitey, I know the feeling! I too can feel this awful Groundhog day coming, with Hill and Bill trying to get back into the Whitehouse and so many people, sickened nearly unto death by Idiot George II, the grinning chimp, whose severely retarded presidency has all but buggered their country in so many ways, just cannot pull the lever for the 90’s again.
A hard choice, and god knows there’ll be heaps of them who angiush over it, but in the end, they’ll baulk at letting that tag team, fangs bared, whirling and dervishing everywhere, knocking over the vases, smashing through people’s lives left right and centre, while all the time playing the victim, and ultimately they will pull that lever for McCain.
God help America, god knows they’ll need it!
Breaking – Edwards out, no endorsement announced as yet.
IMO Bad news for those of us supporting Obama unless there is an explicit endorsement prior to tuesday.
#196
Erytnicam
Do you have a link?
Ouch!
US GDP numbers are dreadful:
The gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation’s economic activity, grew at an annual rate of 0.6%, adjusted for inflation, in the fourth quarter, according to the Commerce Department, down from 4.9% in the final reading of growth in the third quarter. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast GDP would slow to a 1.2%.
http://thepage.time.com/ Here david
Here:
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Edwards.html
Do you confirm my belief that this is a Obame negative KR? The way it plays out if there is no endorsement will be fascinating.
Here is another URL to the Edwards article.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1708125,00.html
Erytnicam – thanks for the heads up.
201
Erytnicam
All I can say Mac, is that I am not surprised, and was pretty sure he wouldn’t last much longer after such a poor showing in SC.
As for how this runs now, sheesh, how does anyone really know? It’s a primary, where some Edwards fans may just stay home, while the others split. I’ll admit I haven’t a clue, and I strongly suspect not too many people will either!
(No doubt we’ll get someone to tell us, however!)
My fear is that large portions of his demographic are crusty old establishment types who want their UHC without compromise.
This sounds interesting:
The former North Carolina senator will not immediately endorse either candidate
…but will he ultimately, and what will persuade him one way or the other?
Three senators and a governor (seriously) left, spot the odd man out.
#203
If Edwards himself does not lean one way or the other then its kind of neutral. Exit polls indicate that Edwards supporters are evenly split between the two other front runners. Where things get interesting is the actions Edwards takes with respect to enforcements – and it seems to me he is doing a good job of setting himself up to set an agenda and pull in the bids. But lets wait another 4 hours and see what the announcement brings to the table.
Quite, KR. I despair more over the naysayers, who would dash or malign the idea of hope. Something we all experienced in our own election, god, year.
The cynics, those who said/say ‘they are all the same.’
I had rather strong arguments with my own Labor friends, who took this view.
Gratifyingly, a final argument, supported by the recently retired Catholic Bishop to the Solomons, in whose company I pleasantly found myself, whilst not necessarily winning the day, shut the mouths of those who would take odds with a hopeful stance.
Where would we be without it? I know. Why do we have children? Why do we care for, educate, argue and discuss with children? If there is no change, why bother?
It is rather as Howard and Co tried for, ‘they have no experience.’
Not good enough.
#206 correction
I said ‘enforcements’ and I meant ‘endorsements’.
Wow – some unhappy people over on the John Edwards blog!
Just for the archives – here is CNNs announcement of the John Edwards exit.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/30/edwards/index.html
Obama reacts on Edwards withdrawal.
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/obama_on_edwards_dropout_his_cause_endures_for_all_of_us.php
CNN here in the US is now saying Rudi is going to announce his withdrawal today and endorse McCain
And the NYT seems to be the first one in with some speculation of the days ahead.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/30/and-then-there-were-two/
More info from the Obama site:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/CGjZy
Edwards is such a rat! I hope Hilary doesnt even give him an ambassadorship!
Kirribilli, loved your Babel Fish reference, I think the result would be “permanent fatal error” unable to translate.
From ABC Online:
Barra doesn’t beat about the bush does he? He’s a take-charge kinda guy.
Foreman material who has just received the kiss of life OR the kiss of death from the Kennedy clan. There’s no movement in the market so far cos the story’s still dripping wet, but I can feel a firming coming on. (Eddy don’t be cheap! Spare us the pun, this is one for little Tabitha)
“Mr Edwards was not expected to immediately endorse either candidate but Senator Obama immediately laid claim to Senator Edwards supporters, saying he championed many of the same causes as Senator Edwards and his wife, Elizabeth, who is fighting cancer.
“John and Elizabeth Edwards have always believed deeply … that two Americans can become one,” Senator Obama said. “So while his campaign may end today, the cause of their lives endures.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/01/31/2150556.htm
216
Basil Fawlty
Good one! That really made me laugh.
Gotta hand it to him though, he can consistently express his convoluted thoughts in such a consistently convoluted way that it’s more than just baroque squiggles, it’s a giant and splendid maze of contradictions.
But hey, it keeps us amused, what?
Two interesting stories about Obama firming in National Polling and women avoiding the Rublican Party in droves.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/gallup_tracking_obama_gaining.php
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/missing_republican_women_prima.php
219
steve
Just wondering if that Mark Blumenthal is closely related to Sidney Blumenthal ?
Sid’s gone back to work for the Clintons again, and although I’ve always enjoyed his dissection of the rightwing nutoids that have been in charge of buggering the nation, I’m a little disappointed by that decision, but that’s life! LOL
By the way, interesting stuff on women primary voting numbers.
Thanks, a good read.
KR, Sidney certainly has a colourful life but Mark seems to be your regular Democratic leaning polling professional.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidney_Blumenthal
Giuliani’s support for McCain was expected, but Edwards’ lack of endorsement so far for Obama is a bit of a concern. Maybe some deal-making going on?
For a bit of fun – here’s GeorgeW!
The question arises – in what way are the current Repug candidates any better on the warming issue? Especially ‘it all started 6000 years ago’ Mitt:
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3snis_bushonglobalwarming_fun
JV, they are both seeking Edwards’ endorsement.
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/top_edwards_adviser_trippi_on_hillary_and_obama_theyre_banging_down_the_doors_for_our_endorsement.php
Romnoidy (as in “nerd”, pronounced like “Nu Joisy” for New Jersey!) may as well go home now. If the Noid can’t trounce McCain on the biggest issue around ie the economy (stooopid!), he’s cactus:
Surveys of voters leaving polling places painted a picture of how successful each campaign was. They found that Mr. McCain not only did significantly better than Mr. Romney among voters who listed the war as their top concern, but also did better than him with voters who said they were most concerned about the economy.
Mr. Romney did significantly better than Mr. McCain among voters who said they were most concerned about immigration.
Both candidates now face the challenge of rallying the fractured party establishment and grass-roots conservatives behind them — or at least not around their opponent.
…so now that Rudy (I’ll protect us from exploding Mexicans) Giuliani isn’t beating this issue to death, maybe it will take an even bigger backseat. ‘Coz the economy is sure a hell in the punters viewfinders now!
When GDP growth drops from almost 5% annualised to 0.6% in one quarter, that gets everyone’s attention. Real quick! (Mind you it’s a complex story, and there’s a few bits of not so bad news, but hey, with that much bad news the not so bad news doesn’t go very far).
Anyway, Romnoid is cactus. So now, let’s watch the GOP enjoy their candidate dragging them from the far loopy social right to the hard militaristic ‘bomb Iran’ right.
This oughta be lots of fun.
224
steve
Oh, do stay tuned, as they say in TV land!
Can the AG rumours be that out of the ballpark? Hey, stuff principle, this politics, and there’s gotta be deals done in all those backrooms, or what else are they for?
Thanks Steve – I see that while both Obama and Clinton have spoken to Edwards this morning (our time), it was Edwards who phoned Obama, but Clinton contacted Edwards. It’s the little things that tel the story, I hope!
Since McCain has decided to do nothing in both cases it is hard to fathom why both these issues would be running his way. I think both these issues will be a millstone around his neck when it comes time to fight off the Democrats.
Shit.
I said this could happen – but never actually expected it too.
This really has thrown the race wide open. Some of his supporters will swing to the only other candidate who offers ‘change.’ Others will switch to whom they think their best shot is – somebody who is white, stable and well known
Either way, this all confirms the following:
The Democratic nominee is going to either be black or a woman.
That’s gotta mean something!
Personally, I think his dropping out will benefit Obama, but we will see.
Andy Kohut, the pollster, was just on NPR and reckoned a week or so back, Edwards voters said they go for Obama over Clinton by a roughly 10% difference (he said 40 something to low thirty something), but didn’t know how that split would go now.
He also asked the really interesting question: where do the white male voters go now?
Think about it! It is going to be VERY interesting.
Well I hope Edwards is off preparing a big speech endorsing Obama as a the great chance for change as oposed to Clinton the baggage carrier, and delivers it to an attentive Democrat audience at large, after the media dust has settled on the Giuliani endorsement of McCain.
New York Post endorsement
http://www.nypost.com/seven/01302008/postopinion/editorials/post_endorses_barack_obama_813218.htm
The NYP wastes no time with niceties, does it?
It triangulates the Clintons on their own petard, and calls it for Obama is at the very least, not the re-run of the 90’s move with all its noir imagery.
warming up!
And in California Obama is running a new TV advert with pictures of him and his mother (yes, that’s her, the white one!)
warming up!
But not warming up in Florida for Rudy, ah well, all those exploding Mexicans will be going off everywhere now!
I think Edwards is doing the right thing by holding off on an endorsement. I went to have a look at his blog, and a lot of hard core supporters there appreciate the fact they aren’t just being used as voting sheep. Let them make up their own minds, or give the illusion as such.
Interestingly, from what I read, most of those supporters were divided into three groups. Those who are voting for Edwards anyway, those who aren’t voting at all, and those who are voting for Obama. Very few, if any, said they were switching to the Clinton camp.
I suspect that Edwards, unless he is desperately after a role in any Democratic Administration and thus hedging his bets, will endorse somebody (Obama) just before Super Tuesday – the last surge of momentum. He’ll know if he is going to act, he needs to do so before than, because this is the one day when Obama can be delivered a knockout punch. Clinton only needs to do what the polls have said – win big – and the machine men will fall in behind her, with that being the ball game.
steve-
just out of interest why would the NY Post not endorse a repug instead?
Anyone else get the feeling that if Clinton wins (esp. if it’s via super delegates) it is going to taste like bitter poison to a hell of a lot of Democrats?
I think that getting out the vote for Clinton is going to be very very hard for the Dems, now that their base has had a wiff of what a real “inspriational” candidate can engender in Obama…
In fact, I don’t think the issue for the Dems will be “oh no, it’s Clinton Mk 2″ – it’s going to be “oh no, it’s KERRY Mk 2″.
Fascinating new board odds from CBet
President – WINNER
CLINTON, Hillary 2.40
MCCAIN, John 3.00
OBAMA, Barack 3.15
MSNBC is running an internet poll on who Edwards should endorce.
Currently 15,699 votes are registered with the following preferences:
Clinton: 28%
Obama: 59%
No on: 14%
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22915342/
Edwards by staying in, is looking for leverage & isn’t sure whether to go with his beliefs (for Obama) or go for the likely political super tuesday winner (Clinton)
The first casualty of becoming a pollie is often ‘principles’
although Pollies like Howard had none to start with
Nader considering 5th Bid for POTUS
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23136883-601,00.html
Well at least the worst he can do this time is give us McCain as the next POTUS.
BTW While I was pleased Edwards pulled out, I seriously doublt it will make any difference. It’s going to be Billary v McCain. In fact, I was so convinced of that last night that I decided to have a break from political books and read Robert Hughes’ biography of every true Cynics favourite painter Goya. Happily relaxed and care-free, I commenced reading and the first thing Hughes says is a big thank you to his best mate Malcolm Bloody Turnbull.
Oh well, so much for my sage analysis
I think Turnbull is his brother in law.
nader running is a sure fire way of helping the repug candidate win
According to the NY Times things are now going so ‘well’ in Iraq that:
And it seems that the already promised troop cuts may not be quite what they seemed either:
Will McCain be pleased by the Surge ‘dividend’ going south?
Giuliani endorses McCain and Arnie is going to as well
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/31/us/politics/31campaign.html?ref=politics
The odds on a McCain win at 2:1 are looking better and better.
Well I guess I have to retract my confident assertion that Edwards would not withdraw – just shows one should never believe anything a political candidate says! This does alter the equation for Super Tuesday somewhat, since I imagine the majority of Edwards’s vote will go to Obama. Some of his low-income-white-populist base won’t want to vote for a black candidate, but they probably won’t want to vote for a woman either, so they’ll just stay home. Edwards’s “left” support (using the word in its very relative American sense) will go straight to Obama. This may put Obama within striking distance of winning CA and maybe other states too, but he still needs more momentum than the polls up till now have shown. I still think Clinton will carry most of the Super Tuesday states, and if she does that it will probably be too late for Obama to stop her.
If Ralph Nader dares show his face in this campaign he will be lynched, and rightly so.
On a different topic – look at the OZ – it’s just received a very very juicy leak from someone in Liberal HQ:
“Libs consider IR u-turn ploy to trap Rudd ”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23137409-601,00.html
Adam, I’ll be happy to form part of the lynch mob.
Dio, I’ll bring the rope!
Adam, don’t worry, not too many of us really believe anything they say anymore, despite our yearnings for the impossible dream, the Camelot rising from the mists of another age (or whatever turns one on!).
As Paul Simon says in one of his most poetic albums (Hearts and Bones):
“the thought that life can be better, is woven indelibly
into our hearts and our brains”
This is could a sample of conversation between Hillary and Obama now that Edwards is out. Names have been changed to protect the guilty parties:
Hillary: Please divert your course 15 degrees to the South to avoid collision.
Obama: Recommend you divert YOUR course 15 degrees to the North to avoid a collision.
Hillary: Negative. You will have to divert your course15 degrees to the South to avoid a collision.
Obama: This is the Captain of U.S. Navy Ship, I say again, divert YOUR course.
Hillary: Negative, I say again, you will have to divert your course.
Obama: This is the captain of the aircraft carrier USS Lincoln, the Second largest ship in the United States Atlantic Fleet, we are accompanied By three destroyers, three cruisers and numerous support vessels, demand That you change your course 15 degrees north, that’s 15 degrees north or Counter measures will be undertaken to ensure the safety of this ship.
Hillary: WE ARE A LIGHTHOUSE. F*CK OFF
smile -
we’re onto it on the Fran thread.
Iraq -
over One Million dead since the invasion.
And Hillary cannot deny her support for it initially, so I wonder whether this appalling figure will sear into the minds of the demecrat voters who are unsure about Obama, but who want nothing to do with those with blood on their hands.
Georgie Boy turns over a new leaf, and the other cheek. Perhaps he really is a Christian after all.
“It’s in our country’s interests to find those who would do harm to us and get them out of harm’s way.”
Washington DC; April 28, 2005
#246 – Of Human Frailties
On Line Opinion and What the people want are running our own online US primaries, of course with some twists. Not only do you get to vote for both Democrat and Republican candidates no matter which party you support, but you get to tell us why you made your choice.
Please go to http://polling.nationalforum.com.au/index.php?sid=51413&lang=en to complete the survey. It closes midnight this Sunday, 5th February so that we can publish our results before “Super Tuesday” in the US.
If you are interested in results of our previous research, most of this is posted to http://whatthepeoplewant.net/ and on our blog, http://whatthepeoplewant.nationalforum.com.au/. The Federal election material is all archived at http://elections.nationalforum.com.au/federal-election-2007/focus.html.
As always the more respondents we get, the more seriously the research will be taken, so I’d appreciate it if you could forward this email, or the URL http://polling.nationalforum.com.au/index.php?sid=51413&lang=en on to family and friends.
Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.
So the question is – will the Edwards pool (9% of voters) give Obama the 3% to cap Cinton?
Government, whoops, opposition gazette running an online poll re the “Sorry” announcement, overwelmingly in favour. There is hope yet for Australia, has also received favourable comment in major newspapers overseas.
I’ll bet that ben Bernanke is now regretting all those years of being Alan (the “Maestro”) Greenpsan’s ‘yes man’.
It got his bum on the Chairman’s chair, but he ain’t ‘da man’:
But Fed officials were already under fire from investors and analysts on Wall Street who complained that the Fed had responded too timidly to signs of a downturn, and from a small but significant number of economists who complained that policy makers were being pushed by the stock market into rash decisions.
…oh dear, the Sorcerer’s apprentice is swirling around in the waves and just cannot make it all just stop and go away.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_democratic_presidential_primary
It’s a 3 point contest in California with Obama leading amongst white voters.
Silly white voters, don’t they know they are meant to vote based on race!
Davidoff @ 255 – I reckon that is the big question overall now. The poll trend is towards Obama, so if Edwards’ support swings behind Obama big time – perhaps with a grand endorsement from Edwards – the underdog could still breast the tape.
#259
Yep – California represents about 22% of the Super Tuesday action.
Another Republican defects to the Obama camp – but this one does it with a suite of recommendations.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/ravisilva/CGBbB
If its Clinton vs McCain, McCain will win hands down.
If its McCain vs Obama, Obama will probably win.
Welcome aboard the Obama wagon of hope, Glen.
Pity Al Gore is not in the field but with Nader not in the field as well guess can not complain
Oh, so this is what Bill’s been doing lately. Greasing the wheels with unsavoury dictators and letting the benefactors become, well, his benefactors. Bill helps Mr Giustra to the big table:
Upon landing on the first stop of a three-country philanthropic tour, the two men were whisked off to share a sumptuous midnight banquet with Kazakhstan’s president, Nursultan A. Nazarbayev, whose 19-year stranglehold on the country has all but quashed political dissent.
Mr. Nazarbayev walked away from the table with a propaganda coup, after Mr. Clinton expressed enthusiastic support for the Kazakh leader’s bid to head an international organization that monitors elections and supports democracy. Mr. Clinton’s public declaration undercut both American foreign policy and sharp criticism of Kazakhstan’s poor human rights record by, among others, Mr. Clinton’s wife, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
Within two days, corporate records show that Mr. Giustra also came up a winner when his company signed preliminary agreements giving it the right to buy into three uranium projects controlled by Kazakhstan’s state-owned uranium agency, Kazatomprom.
The monster deal stunned the mining industry, turning an unknown shell company into one of the world’s largest uranium producers in a transaction ultimately worth tens of millions of dollars to Mr. Giustra, analysts said.
…the whole story is here, but you get the idea pretty clearly already:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/31/us/politics/31donor.html?hp
…but in case you cannot guess how it turns out, here’s the fairy tale ending:
Just months after the Kazakh pact was finalized, Mr. Clinton’s charitable foundation received its own windfall: a $31.3 million donation from Mr. Giustra that had remained a secret until he acknowledged it last month. The gift, combined with Mr. Giustra’s more recent and public pledge to give the William J. Clinton Foundation an additional $100 million, secured Mr. Giustra a place in Mr. Clinton’s inner circle, an exclusive club of wealthy entrepreneurs in which friendship with the former president has its privileges.
…’privileges’ is such a nice way of doing deals with Kazak heavies, ain’t it?
(By the way, a mate just back from there, doing architectural work, tells me the locals all have bootlegged copies of Borat, and they ‘get’ it!)
Big call Glen.
glen
why do you think obama will win
kr
please take some immodium as i think you are suffering from verbal diarrhoea
(and approx 1/3 of all words on this blog issue from your orifice)
267
gusface
Thanks Gus, maybe that you could change your nic too.
Try: gus(shutya)face
That oughta work!
As I don’t seem to recall any need for you to be so rude, I’ll just call it quits, is that OK ,or do you actually have something to say that’s not a gratuitous insult?
Well?
It sure is ESJ but Hillary is the most divisive candidate out there. She cant win over Independents as McCain can and nearly half the population wouldnt vote for her under any circumstances. Also her and Bill’s antics during the primaries leave much for the Republicans to exploit. Plus her nomination would galvanise and rejuvenize the Republicans something that would not occur should Obama win the nomination.
Hillary wont win the deep south or any States there and i seriously doubt her ability to win swing states like Florida and Ohio and even Pennsylvania. I cant see NY or CA changing hands though.
Obama would probably trounce McCain given the age difference, but it would make it an interesting election given it would be experience vs younger generation.
Kirribilli,
There seems to be a lot of pots calling kettles black here.
Can you advise who died and put you in charge of editorial standards.
We need to start a book (centre?)
Cos I will put money on that bet Glen… two-up style…all in the pot, winner takes all… my bet’s with you Glen…$100 on the white chick …(all moneys to be donated) to billbowes constant ruthless demands for help with expenses
270
Greeensborough Growler
When someone comes on, and out of the blue tells you you’re talking through your ‘orifice’, then can we assume they’re asking for an answer?
Did I say anything about ‘editorial standards’? Or gratuitous personal attacks?
The latter, actually.
I type, but its funny for me to imagine someone (gusface?) sitting there talking to his computer one syllable at a time as he types desperately imagining that it’s real human contact.
Mac, it’s real for the ‘droids!
On another subject, I’ve been watching the forums they’re running on Jim Lehrer’s NewsHour on some states to vote Feb5, and they get a cross-section of the community and chat about their issues.
I’ve seen the one from NJ and yesterday was Minnesota, and I have to say the personal stories are sometimes pretty disturbing, Watching the old white guy choke up about having to lose his health insurance after he retired and could not keep up with the rising rates, and then having to ‘beg’ for ‘charity’ when he got sick. There’s a lot of it like that. Another, much younger man had to go to hospital with a ruptured appendix, spent 10 days there and copped a bill for…(wait for it) $65,000. He was lucky, his insurance paid out, BUT, only up to $55,000 and now this student has another millstone around his neck.
It’s pretty eye-popping stuff, and you’d be a stone not to feel for them.
(sorry about the lengthy post, but it’s been on my mind all day, and you know, my ‘orifice’ is just flowing over!)
kr
‘oh the humanity”
sorry that you are so STROPpy but i was only hoping to help in your obvious quest to shorten ,to at least a pithy comment,your diatribes
anyway enjoy most of your posts just pointing out that ongoing vendettas and voluminous contributions (i feel) do not a good blogger make
No wuckers Gus, just some days there’s just so much to rant against!
I hate that newshour is behind by a day and that we don’t get the international edition of the daily show any more. Also that Newstopia is no longer on. *sigh*
On the plus side, Good News Week is coming back!
Mac, I watch the daily show on the net… coz I’m truly tragic!
Curse my lax internet speeds and my inherent loathing for buffering times – or is it embedded video like youtube?
OK, Kirri, so you’re a tragic, tell us about it, don’t be shy, when did you first realise that you had a…errrr…..habit?
Gee I was impressed the way you paused to take the kids for an outing, the beach I think, a couple of days ago.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23137409-601,00.html
Bet they are not smart enough to try it.
KR,
Your bullying indignation is really starting to get up a few noses.
Gratuitous sledges are what makes the blogosphere go round. Have you considered that the personal invective is other bloggers telling you to say what you want to say and get out of the way so they can play too.
270 odd posts and 100 plus are yours. How much of your free basing pychotherapy sessions do we have to endure?
All you are doing is filling band width and making the blog inaccessible. No one wants to turn PB into a tumbleweed of piffle and self righteous self indulgence.
Seriously, you are right up their with Van Der Craats and his Senate Watch contributions of meaningless waffle and opinionated inanities.
KR
I agree, you are getting a wee bit stroppy.
Well KR-
I love reading your blogs, and appreciate the fact that you do much to keep these threads going when it’s a slow news day.
glen
“Obama would probably trounce McCain given the age difference, but it would make it an interesting election given it would be experience vs younger generation” is it that simple? any other issues you feel would sway voters
kr
cheers (the orifice i was refering too was your mouth,if i meant your arse i would said it )
Erytnicam -sorry if i offended you-dont know how but sorry anyhow
general question-why would mccain beat obama (my view is that it would be too close to call)
282 – You are wrong, and this blog should not be like other blogs. Posts like yours are precisely as guilty as what you accuse KR of doing and precisely what I am doing in response.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. If two people on this blog disagree with each other, exchange private messenger contact details and have it out with handbags at dawn in privacy so the rest of us are not exposed to the shallow melodrama of warring with anonymous cyberpersons. God knows William isn’t paying hosting fees to enable anyones own private chest beating to alleviate whatever inadequacies they feel will be relieved through such posturing.
Now, to make this post less guilty than other posts, I wonder whether this blog will be offering the one SUper tuesday post, two for repubs and democrats, or (unlikely) 20 odd for each of the states. or perhaps an IRC channel.
285 – you didnt, i just felt like flexing my ego like every other insecure person on this blog :p
And McCain currently beats Obama on name recognition, in a general campaign the current numbers are worse than irrelevant, they are misleading.
I hoe you are wrong g face.
The thought of McCain (or any repug) in the whitehouse after this clown is truly awful. Surely surely Americans must be ready to give them what they deserve, and get rid of all the old guard. That includes HillBill, of course.
Good evening all.
Well….Glen has given the kiss of death to both Grandpa and Obama. Looks like it’s Hillary all the way back to the White House.
Geez GG…looks like your earning your surname tonight (@ 282)
hope.
Growler -
comparing Kirribilli to SenateWatch is surely hyperbole itself.
Not to mention v. insulting.
Jen,
When are you posting that photo you promised us way back when?
Sheesh -
some of you are really spoiling for a fight tonight.
A girl! On the INTERNET! Inconceivable!
Truth though, every girl on the internet is really an 85 year old albanian man true story a friend told me once
Who says i’m a girl?
295
Bugger.
You’ve blown my cover.
Well I am willing to accept you are a girl just a girl with views common in down-town Tirana circa 1985.
If I ever have a male child I will call him Jen or Tiffany for the sole purpose of being able to mislead internet posters later on in life. I look forward to them hating me thoroughly.
That is a truly disturbing comment 299.
Tell ya something GG, if you ever tire of my posts, you are NOT forced to read them!
Tell you something else, I won’t bother to read any of yours. (just like I never bother with quite a few little pissants whose only purpose seems to be to pick fights and be snide little creeps. Wanna join ‘em? Don’t let me stop you!)
See simple, ain’t it? No need to insult anyone (who never insulted you!) and no need to get all pompous and editorial and high and friggin’ mighty.
So, there.
Toodle pip!
hmm, something not right with that….
Perhaps rather than permanent banning William we could have a cooler feature? If you feel at your sole discretion someone is getting too carried away a spell of say 24 hours to reflect would be appropriate?
KR – I have noticed you like the word snide. That always makes me think of the cartoon character with the mustache and the tophat. I like to think that when a poster crafts a truly epic burn they are curling their mustache and laughing maniacally to themselves.
jesus, ESJ… smell blood did ya?
your better then that buddy, even when your being a prick
ESj
Handbags at dawn for the Tirana comment.
I have never self inflicted a tattoo with a biro or worn moccassins with a miniskirt in my entire life.
I think some of you ingrates have forgotten the great work Kirrabilli did at prising John and Janette out of their squat.
And re the photo ESJ -
perhaps you should be grateful for small mercies.
I’ve been told I bear a striking resemblance to Julie Bishop . (And Glen, don’t go getting any ideas.)
305
Erytnicam
It just amazes me how nasty and creepy people can be when they are ‘anonymous’
Of course if you tell ‘em, they then accuse you of being the problem! I think it’s called passive aggressive, and I can well and truly see it in a couple of posters here.
Anyone is invited NOT to read my posts anytime. I’m absolutely fine about it.
But attack me with some snide remark, ‘pedophile’ and ‘orifice’ are two that come to mind quickly, and I’ll answer back.
Now, what were we discussing before being so RUDELY interrupted? LOL
” the humanity!”
Ha jen,
It is ironic with the demise of John Winston that the people who seem to be suffering most are the howard haters?
Jen when I go to jail please dont be my advocate before the people’s court!
Slarty – LOL. Actually I am in quite the chipper mood tonight. I always thought Kirribilli would self-destruct a la STROP of blessed memory
Diogenes – Goya, cynic? I have this vision of you surrounded by books in the Adelaide hills drinking fine reds!
Oh yeah, the Daily SHow, it’s here:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/
…and Mac, it keeps me sane (oh, OK, I hear the groans!)
KR – You have a snide pedophiles oriface! This should be like the kryptonite of posts!
I’ve a feeling this blog has lost its way…
Jen,
Hyper hyperbole is the only way to get the buggers’ attention!
Erytnicam @ 286,
Your contrariness is fine. I just don’t understand your logic. Pls explain.
ESJ,
Will you please start a fight so I can get out of here.
In the mean time, this is my excuse and I’m sticking to it!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Meh1CqE0_so
Putting it simple- people need to grow up, and respect other peoples’ opinions no matter how different. Must admit my tiffs with Adam do frustrate me but in the end i can understand his view although i will never agree with it.
LOL, I actually liked William’s word “unconscionable” for Mr smarmy snide-winder, it suits him to a T.
And Jen, thanks, if you enjoy my posts on a dull day then hey, that works for me. (And by the way, I’ve no idea who STROP was, or is, but I’ve got no inclination to self-destruct over the piddle that comes from the likes of you know who!)
That really is a classic laugh.
what did happen to strop? he was all over this place like…like..well like KR on the POTUS elections…I went to Darwin for 10 days, came back… no Strop?
Carpal tunnel?
OK fellas-
to bring a note of commonality betwwen us ( an i’ve never heard anyone on PB defend Bush – even Glen)
let’s remember what we are thankfully about to lose…
“I hope we get to the bottom of the answer.
It’s what I’m interested to know”.
Certainly 316! I along with many people don’t want to watch two people go at it like uncastrated poodles when they could be arguing in private and not sidetracking this blog, which I have again been made an accomplice to by responding to a post that is not on topic.
314
Erytnicam
Mac, that last post was addressed to you first, ya orifice! LOL
Hey, this could be fun, we can just act like them and just abuse each other or we could actually do what we were doing BEFORE they started throwing their own faeces.
“Truth though, every girl on the internet is really an 85 year old albanian man true story a friend told me once”
That only applies to those phone lines, you know, call now I’m waiting to talk to you.
“why would mccain beat obama my view is that it would be too close to call”
McCain would not need to beat Obama, there is probably already a redneck carving a cross in a bullet for Obama right now and if Obama becomes the Dem contender and looks serious he will load it up.
As for McCain, I thought that there was a serious push in 2004 to get him to be the VP running mate for the Dem candidate. If so it makes McCain presentable for both dems and republicans. Once Bush goes so does a lot of baggage and people may be confortable electing McCain with a Dem controlled house and senate.
Ah Slarty – as they say in the Labor party there are stayers and there are players.
320 – Glen would defend Bush to be contrary. He is a special Olympics gold medalist troller
ESJ,
While I was composing you started that fight. God Bless You!
KR @ 302,
That is my point, I already do and I am sure others do too. I don’t begrudge you having your say but it is just you have so much love to share, you don’t let the lovees in on the orgy.
And don’t pout and sit up straight. No one likes a whinger.
America will get the president they deserve. It has always been so.
ESJ- Just heard Britney has been detained to hospital on a mental health order. Can I add her to my deathlist?
Goya was well recognised as a Cynic. His paintings and portraits started out with sentimentality and ended in a sustained attack on the horrors of religion, war and authority. And I am surrounded by books but I live in the foothills and I very seldom drink alcohol (might make an exception for the Big Day Out tomorrow tho).
GG since my visit to Kamchatcka I have no more hate only love for my fellow comrades.
Eeeeeeeeeek, it’s a case of the zeitgeist tuning into my brainwaves!
Here’s a headline box from politico:
Huckabee gets love from the ladies
By: LISA LERER | 01/31/2008 03:40 AM
With McCain considered snide, and Romney “phony,” these GOP-leaning ladies can’t help but like Mike.
…there’s that bloody word again: ’snide’!
I knew I didn’t like McCain….it’s too funny.
Diogenes,
Do you go for real installed bookshelves, or particle board?
If MCain and Obama get the nominations, we may start seeing comparisions with The West Wing , now wouldn’t that be fantastic.
Please Lord, allow these people on this blog to determine what a private messaging service is, and how it can be used to stop irritating me. Failing that, please turn the next off topic poster (after this one) into a pillar of salt. I hear your good at that kind of stuff.
Cheers.
Enough fun for one day. Real discussion only from now on.
27
trouble is we get them too.
WB is god? The lord moves in mysterious ways!
While you are here (if briefly) WB will there be an IRC channel for Super Tuesday?
#334 – WB, why took you so long?
If either Hillary or Obama cannot beat a 71 yo geriatric, the legacy of 8 yeras of GWB, the Iraq War, Subprime, Economic recession, housing slump, loss of jobs and Wall St meltdown, the Dems then deserve to be out of the Whitehouse for the next 20 years.
ESJ,
I understand your experience.
You are probably unaware, but the Melbourne Ring Road finishes at Greensborough.
Like Kamchatcka, the reason is that once you get there, everyone realises you have reached the workers paradise and there is no need to go any further.
337 Where you see geriatric, many see war hero. And there is no doubt McCain is a true war hero no matter how much I don’t want his as president. I may not like him but I respect the hell out of him.
Arbie @323 “Once Bush goes so does a lot of baggage and people may be confortable electing McCain with a Dem controlled house and senate.”
I think that’s a very real possibility Arbie. A new President, whether Dem or GOP, creates a circuit breaker with the past. That’s where US politics differs from us where a change of PM simply puts a new face on the old clock. McCain is promoting himself as an anti-Bush and the voters may just buy it – especially if the Dem alternatives are seen as too extreme, or too big a change, or too unfamiliar, or too Hillary.
#339 – The Yankees used to laugh at the Chinese because the Central Committee of the CCP was full of 70+ “geriatric” as the Yankees called them. Now they are thinking of electing one and he is now a “War Hero”. Give me a break and what a bunch of effing hypocrite the Yankees are.
337
The Finnigans
Yep, inclined to agree, but stranger things have happened (well, they elected GWB twice..or did they?)
(By the way, I loved your Lighthouse Post…way back there!)
But it’s the perfect storm for the Republicans, and especially as McCain is in no way a uniting figure for conservatives, it seems utterly unbelievable that even Hillary could lose to him.
I note that a recent poll has 59% of Yanks saying that toppling Saddam was NOT worth it, so no amount of make-up with the surge is really going to change that. And that of course assumes the Potemkin facade does not suddenly come crashing down in the middle of one of his rather dreary speeches.
339
I’m sure that being war hero desreves repect for the suffering he undoubtedly endured.
However as a republican he has supported the Iraq invasion, and ‘The Surge” , with the resulting loss of over a million Iraqi lives.
I cannot understand how someone who has seen the horror of war can be so instrumental in sustaining one.
He has had the sanest approach to torture out of the repubs, and how the others can condone it while in the same room as him makes me nauseous. He can’t raise his arms any more he was so badly tortured.
#339 – One more point, those 70+ CCP members were truly “War Heroes” because they were the survivors of the historic “Long March”. McCain a “War Hero”? Which war? A war that the American invaded Vietnam and got their ass kicked bad. Pls give me another break.
Ferny, how does that work? I mean McCain pretends to be ‘not’ Bush, yet he’s openly more militaristic (you know, “one hundred years of solicitude” for the parents of dead soldiers!) and “bomb, bomb Iran”?
Yet he pulls voters who are both pro and anti the Iraq war. It is very odd, and there’s some strange disconnect going on with the perceptions of this guy.
345
well that’s a point in his favour, but it leaves a lot to be desired in the bigger picture of what amounts to wholesale slaughter.
346 – You are the straw man. It is you, you are the man made of straw that the right likes to erect as a model of liberalism. This is what the right likes to believe that the left believes, because straw men are designed for knocking down.
Your next post should be talking about the wonders of the soviet union and how every single American soldier is a war criminal while you burn a flag to light your bong.
Once again, you are not erecting a straw man, you are the straw man
Edit 346 should be 345
Yeah Finns, that’s the other weird thing about McCain: this is so much of a re-run bad movie for him. He saw a useless war, he knows what it looks like when you cannot even define what ‘win’ is, plus you’re getting walloped.
How does he justify doing the same thing again? is he driven to somehow vindicate the first mistake by sheer bloody-minded adherence to patriotic nonsense?
I must say I find him strangely enigmatic on that whole issue.
343
jen
yeah, what you said!
Another edit -
345 should be 344. sorry.
watched the Republican debate for fun
The Mormon , the ‘Reagan” clone , the clown and the Preacher
and I’m thinking…gee they are better than howards team !
or was it a dream
Thank you William.
337 – Finnigans
Obama is a different story altogether, but look at it this way.
If the Republicans can’t beat a washed up, 40% unfavourable, unpopular, machine orientated hypocritical women whose husband (and let’s all pause to reflect on that a moment, because people seem to not realise how unbelievably ridiculous that is) was in the White House only eight years ago, during which she released an unbelievably unpopular health care plan which frightened people half to death…they too deserve to be out of power for a couple of decades.
McCain is a candidate whom independents love, Hillary a candidate whom Republicans loathe, and many inside the Democratic party don’t like much either. They have the Congress, why not wait four years to take on a new candidate or a very very old incumbent Republican, rather than put up with eight years of her?
Just presenting the alternative view.
If that’s the final match up, it is going to be a bitter and nasty race.
KR, I didn’t say it makes sense, but it may explain why he tends to be ahead in head-to-head polls against Hillary and against BHO (tho this is a closer tussle).
His strategy is certainly to distance himself from Dubyah, and it’s possible that the public could accept him as sufficiently non-Bush to elect him – in spite of the Party he belongs to and his hairy-chested warmongering. Creating strange disconnnects are what election campaigns are about – and there’s nowhere stranger than Uncle Sam.
erytnicam – just worked it out.
Macintyre!!
genius that I am.
So, back to the issue – given your respect for McCain, do you support his stand on the surge, or are you as puzzled as I am the a veteran would support such horror ?
watched the Republican debate for fun
The Mormon , the ‘Reagan” clone , the Clown and the Preacher
and I’m thinking…gee they are better than howards team !
or was it a dream
Mac, Finn’s got a point. Vietnam is like our Gallipoli, we celebrate a colossal military blunder and horrendous defeat. There was no victory, and sod all glory. And we did unspeakable things in it too. (I was shown the creased old photographs when I was a kid, by a guy who was there. They were hanging Turks. He reckoned they fought back to the last breath).
War is not glorious, and anyone who’s been in one, and survived, and shows some intelligence, should not be pushing for more of them.
That’s what does not add up about McCain.
357 – You are what republicans want to believe exists. This is not personal, it is like you are the living incarnation of their hatred for the left.
356 – I have every confidence that McCain is as all there as Reagan was. make of that what you will.
Ron-
my kid’s under-11 soccer team is better than Howard’s.
And they are way in front of the GOP’s offering, although none of then have had quite the same degree of plastic surgery.
As all there as Reagan?
I assume then, you think he is demented.
ok KR, for your sake I will show you what I was addressing
345
The Finnigans Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 10:41 pm
#339 – One more point, those 70+ CCP members were truly “War Heroes” because they were the survivors of the historic “Long March”. McCain a “War Hero”? Which war? A war that the American invaded Vietnam and got their ass kicked bad. Pls give me another break.
I can only assume that Senator McCain did not make the decision to invade Vietnam all on his lonesome, but rather that he volunteered to be a member of the military, and as a member of that military was put into a war situation. There is nothing heroic about the Americans in totality but at the individual level someone deciding to serve their country, who is captured in the line of duty, who is tortured and who refused to be released while other members of his military remains captured is heroic. I’m sorry, but to watch someone criticize the vietnam veterans themselves is precisely how the Right likes to stereotype the left. The props to communism is merely the icing on the lefty strawman cake.
McCain was crafty in the debate today
With an innocent face he undermined Romney’s leadership credentials on Romneys alleged flip flop to cut & run….the dirt will stick
McCain..he’s done it again..easily won the political debate for conservative votes
predict he will be the Nominee
hey Mac, there’s so much that is truly wrong in all political systems and systems of belief that keep losing wars going.
There’s a lot of good people who think this is wrong, that the people who are getting killed and hurt are not deserving of this.
My hope is that there are enough of them left in the USA to change this, and it will make their own country a lot the better for it too.
It appears to me that the republican voters seem to be more pragmatic than their democrat counterparts. The ability to pick the one who polls the best. While the democrats seem to enjoy sidelining the best canidates. No wonder they spent 20 out 28 years in opposition. The one that polls the best finnishes a distant third?
No one ever achieved change by loosing an election.
364 – Im not sure if your disagreeing with me or not :S
Anyways, goodnight folks, Ive got a uni exam tomorrow, which Is why I spent so much time in here instead!
No Scotty , the Democrats best hope was NOT encouraged by the Democrat Leaders to run (Gore)
I think he’s better than all Republican & Democrat candidates
362
Erytnicam
I know what you’re saying, it isn’t right to diminish McCain’s personal bravery and guts, but I thought Finn was pointing out the hypocracy of commandering a failed and pointless war and harvesting it for heroes in the jingoistic way that Americans (in particular) seem to love doing.
It seems to oblige everyone to forget that they killed millions, yes millions of people for this, and yet they never seem to speak about ANY of them.
War leaves nothing but scars.
362 Macintyre
surely that is the point.
After the absolute injustice that was done to the soldiers who went to Vietnam,both by the governments that sent them and the anti-war reaction that they copped (so undeservedly) on their return, surely a man who has suffered that fate would do everything possible to prevent it happening to any other living person, particularly his own countrymen.
That is what I do not understand about McCain.
Which bit of “McCain a ‘War Hero’ … Pls give me another break” did you not understand?
So then KR you’d not have supported World War 2 or the Korean War or the Second Gulf War to free Kuwait????
War isnt desirable but it must always be on the cards.
Appeasement will get you no where IMHO.
Well KR , we hear the cumulative number of US troops killed in Iraq repeatedly getting updated.
We hear about ‘insurgents’ getting killed (what is an ‘insurgent’ ..a non iraqi ?
We do NOT hear about the cumulative CIVILIAN death toll at all nor even a regular cumulative approximation…its as though such deaths do not even happen
which is McCain & others are guilty of
Glen,
I know it is pedantic, but wasn’t Kuwait the First Gulf War?
Ron.
the WHO released today the figure of over one million Iraqi’s killed.
Okay, but I read quite a lot of stuff this evening, as I looked around the US of US for what would/could happen on the Super Tuesday.
One thing I know, if I don’t concentrate instead on my bill paying, I will be disliked. Not here, necessarily.
It’s all very diverting, yet too I must cook, too, for the Saturday do. I did make a list, and bought some ingredients, and kind of tidied the kitchen.
But I read, that SuperTue may not decide the fate of the candidates.
That reasoning, barely comprehensible to me, means that no winner may be ‘decided’ and that more, whatever that is, will need to happen. Something to do with delegates, perhaps?
As for Nader, please no. Not that I disagree with him, but I do remember what happened. Something like Labor doing Family First in Australia?
And how do newcomers get in anyway? Including Al Gore?
And on that note -
peace.
Nite all.
We do hear of the increased suicide rate though, Ron.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/30/AR2008013003106.html?wpisrc=_rssworld
but it isnot reported as a updated approx cum figure in the media
only the US casualties are
#287
Erytnicam
Google Trends disagrees with you …
http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama%2C+mccain
Crikey Whitey , alot of the State primarys are not win takes all delegates
a losing candidate can get more delegates than the winner as Obama did in one state
Really?
Jen,
The figure was 150,000 only last week. Who to believe?
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s2136029.htm
Greeensborough Growler
you should be ashamed of yourself
Ever since you used the word ‘pedantic’ on glen , he’s away from bloging searching to find out if you were complimenting him
370
William Bowe
The context was comparing the two countries and what was used for patriotic purposes. I took Finn to mean that the Vietnam war was hardly a cause for nationalistic celebration in America, and so annointing ‘heroes’ is an odd bit of jingoism.
My immediate reaction was not to see him ’slagging’ McCain, but the use of the Vietnam War in some perverse way.
(In another way, I actually don’t like the term ‘war hero’, because the person it is stuck on did what they had to do to survive, and it always feels like we’ve vicariously assumed their personal story for some ‘civic’ purpose. It feels wrong to me, that’s all. Note this does not lesson my admiration for anyone who can survive and show courage under awful conditions. I just don’t want to misuse them for more ‘patriotism’ that leads to even more stupid wars).
That figure was from the WHO, what’s more. Clearly Jen is mistaken. KR, you seem pretty determined to ignore the clear meaning of what he actually said.
Not Pete Townshend, the other Who.
380 Ron there is a good table on which States are Winner take All or otherwise here.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
373
Greeensborough Growler – Technically but the Iran-Iraq war is also known as the First Gulf War.
Jen given the situation in Iraq im surprised the ‘WHO’ is able to get any accurate figure. Still how many died as a result of Saddams reign of power more than a million id say.
Iraqi deaths:
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSL3048857920080130?sp=true
It’s not WHO, whoever said that.
Not the WHO – http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gRd3Bi6CXI94ke9t9CgxqcZ1wPNw
Crikey,
I think it’s essentially that on S Tuesday, around half of the delegates are won from the 22 states or so who are holding their primaries.
I don’t think ANY candidate can ‘win outright’ on that day, especially when proportional voting is used. However, one will get the majority of them. Conventional wisdom says they will then open up a very large gap, and the party machine will line up behind that one candidate to push them through the later states – the media will make sure that it all becomes a ‘foregone conclusion’
It just seems to be ‘the day’ that a candidate gets enough momentum to see them through.
Of course, if the day ends a virtual tie (same number of wins give or take), that’s when the real fun starts. Which brings us to the question… who here has watched (and remembers) the West Wing season six?
oh KR you fast posting bastard
whatever the civilan figure , if it was aussie civilian caualties we’d regard the number with concern
McCain says ‘progress’ is being made
On this he agrees with Bush
Frankly I see it as a repeat of Northern Ireland but on a worsw scale …how long did that go on despite UK troops and for what benefit
Fair enough Glen.
(BTW, I did answer your questions re the McEwen Appeal)
Sorry William, but I wasn’t trying to be obtuse, I actually read it as a comment about the relative meaning of the wars mentioned:
One more point, those 70+ CCP members were truly “War Heroes” because they were the survivors of the historic “Long March”. McCain a “War Hero”? Which war? A war that the American invaded Vietnam and got their ass kicked bad. Pls give me another break.
The inference is there was nothing ‘heroic’ about the Vietnam war (at least not for the USA).
I agree however, that he’s mixed the notion of McCain the person with the folly of invading Vietnam and it reads pretty badly. But seriously, on my first reading it seemed he was really bagging the US over going into Vietnam. (And then scoffing that this is then turned into something ‘heroic’ in that process I mentioned).
That figure on Iraq is based on interviews with about 2,400 Iraqis, 20% said they had lost a member of their household due to the war, this was extended to give one million dead.
This sort of extrapolation sounds as dodgy as some of the polling we were getting last year and could be significantly affected by the areas the people were polled in and the understanding of the community and households.
No doubt that there have been huge losses, but there is also supposed to be over one million Iraqis as refugees in other countries, this would mean 40% loss of population since 2003/04 and would be very noticable.
392
Erytnicam
hey Mac, you’ve got an exam tomorrow. Go to bed! LOL
I believe with regret that McCain will be President if opposed to Obama
The Obama support in Democrat ranks is being INFLATED by the anti Hillary feeling by Democrats. Onse Hillary is defeated , that anti Hillary feeling disapates
A ’silent majority’ of Democrat voters I think then will not vote in the Presidential election
1/ due to justified concern re Obama’s inexperience
2/ due to him being black (but they will NOT say that to a Pollster
#332
mark marky said
Only thing is Obama’s VP will have to take a heart attack and we end up with McCain as the Secretary of State – and I’m not at all sure I’ll be comfortable with that.
McCain a “War Hero”?
This is pretty hard to misread IMO, unless you mistook “McCain” to mean ‘Vietnam’ and “war hero” to mean “heroic war”
I could see that happening
I can accept that you misread it, but to discount individuals on account of the collective is the sort of wrongheadedness that lead to Vietnam veterans being booed upon returning home.
Similarly just surviving isnt heroic, the fact that he refused to be released in exchange for something that he believed to be wrong is.
The exam is at 815 too, but the gf is studying her stuff in the room with the light on
So instead I will talk with my imaginary message board comrades
What’s the exam on Mac, blogging etiquitte? (Ta Boom!!LOL)
Neurology and Neuropharmacology
#350
KR
I think you have hit the nail on the head.
Erytnicam you have missed the point
Its irrelevant whether McCain was or was not a ‘war hero’
He is perceived to have been one and even in todays Debate he continues to play it…which is both crass and for this election immaterial
you clearly have no knowledge of the Vietnam War politics
403
Erytnicam
Crikey, you can hurt yourself with stuff like that!
Good luck.
Erytnicam you have missed the point
Its irrelevant whether McCain was or was not a ‘war hero’
He is perceived to have been one and even in todays Debate he continues to play it…which is both crass and for this election immaterial
you clearly have no knowledge of the Vietnam War politics
Except that the point was made that he was not a war hero which I responded to? I think it would be missing the point to say that his use of war heroism is appropriate, or that the US War was right, or that McCains policies were right.
But if the question is whether or not he is a war hero, I fail to understand how ‘Its irrelevant whether McCain was or was not a ‘war hero’ is accurate.
Which following on has even less to do with knowledge of vietman war politics.
I’d say you misrepresented me if I knew that you understood the original conversation?
Hey Ron post it a third time, just in case I missed it
405
Ron
Steady there Ron, remember, we’re the grown ups here now! LOL
I think Mac took Finns post the wrong way coz Finn expressed himself badly. Crossed wires, and it’s easy to do without face to face expressions.
Expressing really complex and emotional things in type, on the run, is a great way to give the wrong signals IMHO.
McCain is a war hero no doubt. He served his time in the military, was captured by the enemy and refused to bow to torture and inhuman incarceration.
Since his return from active service he has served in the public administration of his nation with great distinction.
Whatever any of us might think of his policies, there can be no doubting of his character or committment to the USA. He is more than entitled to run for President.
Eryt @ 403 – All you need is a good neuropharmacologist on your side apparently. The Mormon wing of the GOP would be right into this. Check this cartoon:
http://www.cartoonbank.com/product_details.asp?mscssid=8NXGB4F6K8BG8PPEC8GJH73E8TDM3SB6&sitetype=1&did=4&sid=124128&pid=&advanced=1&keyword=undefined&artist=Edward+Koren§ion=prints&caption=&artID=&topic=&pubDateFrom=&pubDateTo=&pubDateMon=&pubDateDay=&pubNY=&color=0&title=Edward+Koren&whichpage=24&sortBy=popular
404
davidoff
And you know, it bothers me a lot more than the grinning chimp’s complete ignorance of the world and naive assumptions about what they could do with troops.
The death figures are arguably BETTER now than before the war started (I’m gonna get killed for saying that by the leftists).
I have some figures on Iraqi death related to the sanctions against Iraq that upset OBL so much. In fact, when you read what he’s said, the deaths from sanctions were his main reason for being so pi##ed off (and the US being in Saudi). And so now I can get killed by the rightists as well. I hope there’s a few in the centre out there to support me.
A UNICEF report claims 500,000 children younger than 5 died in Iraq between 1991-8 due largely to impact of sanctions.
The Lancet reported that infant mortality rose from 47/1000 live births to 108/1000 under the sanctions.
http://www.unicef.org/newsline/99pr29.htm
http://www.globalpolicy.org
411 precisely – and whatever we might think of his policies is important – I do not endorse the man, he was a better deal in 2000, and 2008 edition McCain supports bad policies and looks eerily like a 70 year old version of the cockroach from Men in black. (The one with the human suit)
Time to have a look at seeing if money can be extracted from the bookies bag.
In California, Obama is currently paying 3.60, Clinton 1.16
http://www.pollster.com/08-CA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
http://www.betfair.com/
Obama seems to me worthy of a few bucks at this price.
Just for some real life experience context stuff as concerns this hero business … back when I was young, there was this guy called Max, his boss was called Fifi by his friends. One day Fifi was giving Max a hard time – and as I recall – this is how the conversation went:
Fifi said:
Max replied (while leaving the building):
Fifi shouted down an empty stairwell:
415
Erytnicam
Yep, but I still don’t think Finn was really saying that McCain wasn’t one, but that the Vietnam war was not something ‘heroic’ for America.
It just was expressed very badly.
KR, how can you be so sure he’s not just an idiot? It seems pretty plain to me that he is, and that you’d have no trouble recognising this if he was conservative and pro-American.
To say that something was expressed that badly, then assign a less horrible meaning to it is to defeat the point of the english language.
I think that is a ball.
What erytnicam meant to say is that that object is a space shuttle, he just expressed it very badly.
I mean for Christs sakes lets just communicate in binary beeps and be done with it!
If you agree with this proposal, two beeps for yes, one for now.
419 expressed it more elegantly than I did.
416
steve
It’s the bloody ‘narrowing’! It’s back to haunt us all!
By the way, did I detect just a moment of doubt from Adam today?
Nah…tell me I’m dreamin’!
Also 419 can edit his own posts – intriguing
419
William Bowe
I can’t, but somehow the main reference seemed to be the actual war, not so much about McCain.
Hey, I’m an idiot too, because I often get replies that so totally take me aback I realise I’ve been misconstrued completely.
Erytnicam ,are you studying to be a neurotic
Of course McCain is a war hero but thats not the point on 2 counts
To us many Aussies who served in Vietnam before you were born & saw Aussies die for a LIBERAL PARTY WAR, McCain’s current skiting of his war record & US patriotism for Vietnam is sickening
In your little room studying how to be a neurotic , such jungle fighting is all academic as your courage resides in computer key strokes
Steve @ 416 – Agree Obama good odds at present, and most likely won’t get longer, so now is the time to get on. If Edwards comes out with a strong endorsement before Tuesday the existing poll trend in Obama’s favour will probably accelerate. If it was a horse race, with form like that and only two starters, one wouldn’t hesitate.
419 revisited
Ouch! Mad old lefties are easy William, they say stupid stuff sometimes but their heart is still in the right place.
Mad rightwing nutters say weird sh!t that makes you wonder where they put their heart.
KR , they would not last a minute in the jungles of Vietnam before deserting
With respect, Ron, there’s an argument going on here about whether or not McCain is a war hero. Your assertions that statements made in the context of this argument are “not the point” seem a little out of the loop.
Yeah, and there is the rub. You and I don’t get a vote. It is up to the American people to sort out their issues. While I agree that MCain is one or two elections too late, if the Dems can’t sort out their internal differences, then McCain will become the real option.
This is a conservative electorate that elected and re-elected George W so a new President who purports to be tough on their enemies while sorting out the problems of Iraq and islamo facism will be very attractive.
The threat of all out nuclear annihilation is likely to focus the attention of Iran and others. Weakness never won nothing in international diplomacy.
I should probably exit the arena at this point, Erytnicam is doing perfectly well making the same argument as me.
I’m not disputing he WAS a war hero 40 years ago
But McCain’s current skiting of his war record & US patriotism for Vietnam is sickening to Aussie Vietnam vets which makes Aussie Vietnam vets dismiss his deeds due to his current misuse of it in a political debate as he did today
420
Erytnicam
Funny!
beep
nah, it doesn’t work for me!
I wasn’t trying to defend Finn, I just didn’t read his post and go ‘oh, he’s said that McCain is not a hero!’.
I read it and thought this guy really hates the whole idea of what happened in Vietnam, and calling anyone a hero for it is somehow ‘wrong’.
But it’s far too late for de-constructing text that’s been flung off into cyberspace by people who really, in all honesty, do not have a great command of expressing themselves with nuance in the written word.
Sigh.
Fry sliced courgette and onions in butter and olive oil, till golden but not too soft. Gently stir in some tarragon. Remove and keep the oil, if not too burnt. Coat patted dry chicken pieces with a mixture of wheatgerm, tarragon, some cracked pepper, lemon rind if desired, fry gently in more olive oil and butter, till golden and not bloody. Depends, that, on whether it is too be reheated.
Place the courgette and onion mix at the base of an oven proof ceramic, as the best vessel. Add some home made or other chicken stock to moisten. More or less. Exercise judgment, if cooking in advance, for reheating and for ensuring that the courgette mix provides adequate liquid. Pop the chicken on top.
Ensure no drying out, when reheating. Add more stock, if necessary. Result should be moist chicken pieces, not soggy on top, a juicy courgette brew for spooning onto the plate.
Goes wonderfully with oven baked potatoes in skins and a light salad, if at home.
The wheatgerm, bought somewhere in a packet, will put out some wonderful flavour and oils, with the courgette.
I recommend this recipe, as I invented it. Possibly healthy.
Still knitting my brow at the responses around the candidates, thanks so.
429
William Bowe
Goodnight William, and thanks for tidying up the sandpit (again!)
Like all right wingers , substance is expendable when their arguments are exposed.
Just like Vietnam , the Libs put us in an unjustied war with Iraq and again Labor has to fix the mess
#380
All Democrat events are proportional – the Republican events are about 50/50 between proportional and winner-take-all.
432
Ron
I think we both have some aversion to McCain’s ‘using’ the whole idea of Vietnam in today’s political context as if he’s ‘entitled’ to a super-patriotic stance.
What’s patriotic in walking around Baghdad, as he did some months back, claiming it was like shopping in the mall back home, while helicopters circled overhead, and the surrounding market seethed with armed troops?
He gets away with something nobody else could, and he gets it from the ‘war hero’ stamp on his forehead. He uses it, of course, but nobody should be afraid to ask what is ‘patriotic’ about sending more young Americans to Iraq so that they can come home in bits, or in a box.
437
davidoff
then this may keep Obama in the race unless super tuesday is a wipe out eh ?
KR , agree and thats whats sickening of his abuse of his 40 years ago record because it almost makes him a non war hero by his abuse of it
which was my point
and this was the point that went right over the head of neurotic Erytnicam
#438
When we look at the member states of Europe (East and West), the Middle East, China, Japan, etc. – these are countries with historical depth. The United States of America (much like Australia) is young – and lack the historical cushion. Here in Australia we are still coming to terms with the idea of ourselves as a self-governing independent nation – and equally the United States of America is still coming to terms with its role in the world. With the absence of history (and the collective consounce that this represents) things like ‘patriotism’ and ‘heroics’ come into play at a level that is frequently viewed as disproportionate by more mature nations. But this underlies a greater evil – the need/desire to be seen to be winning – no matter the cost – to walk away a hero.
What is still missing in the American consciousness is an empathy for the mothers retrieving the dead bodies left on the road as the hero exits stage left.
#439
Exactly – if Obama can keep his numbers up then a scenrio exists where the subsequent states can have a voice and the superdelagates can play their games. This is where Al Gore would most likely kick-in with a Obama endorsement (which would sent a rocket into the superdelegate debate).
441
Ron
Look, I think Mac’s reaction has a place, and Finn’s post triggered it alright, but it’s very hard to judge people’s life experience from a few (often badly composed) sentences.
SO maybe it’s best not to assume too much, and then argue from that assumption, unless of course it’s…(insert your worst troll here!)
Nice words,
But what about WW1 and 2, Waterloo, Agincourt, The French Revolution, The Russian Revolution. Vlad the Impaler etc. etc .
What was that about empathy for grieving mothers?
Except Ron, you are arguing a completely different fight as has been pointed out to you several times :S I haven’t refuted what you have said once, and I have barely responded to your attacks on me, or you strange use of the word neurotic :S
I’m honestly confused, because I haven’t once argued differently to you. You are asserting something I have not said. Baffling.
And thanks for leaving it to me William, now I’ll NEVER go to bed :p
It would help Ron, if you could quote precisely where the disagreement arises, and which part you disagree with. Because Ive got to be honest, one of us is confused as hell about what’s going on, and I can’t tell if it’s me or not.
I am so unbelievably confused as to who is arguing with what about which issue. And that doesn’t happen very often (unless Glen in here, in which case it is a bunch of people arguing with Glen about everything he says).
Perhaps in the light of day discussion will divert itself back to the primaries.
442
davidoff
There’s a lot of conflating Iraqi with 911 in the American pysche, and we all know who’s to blame for that. Hence they have little to no empathy, and by ‘they’ I mean those average Joes and Jo’s who do not think for themselves, get their world home delivered by Fox cable news, and have no more idea of what a stinking sewer of horrors their invading Iraq has unleashed than what’s on the other side of Mars.
This is the problem with America. The complete corruption of ‘news’ and the national narrative by a media so seduced by the ‘idea’ of the Imperial Super Heroes of the Whitehouse and Pentagon that they have created a fantasy out of everything they’ve done.
It will take something special to change it in any positive way, but not electing another republican for president would be a good start.
My argument – McCain is a war hero irrespective of justification of the war.
Ron – Your missing the point, it is wrong for McCain to exploit his war heroism
Me – I never said anything about that either in favor or against.
Ron – NEUROTIC NEUROTIC COWARDLY TYPIST
#445
Thank you!
This are all examples of historical context. If you go to Romania and you talk to the locals – you get get some real in-depth, and graphical background on Vlad. Head west and talk with the French about the different revolutions (and the real extent of death and destruction – and the times where nothing actually happened but novels have carried the reality much further than the truth), watch real reconciliation between German and France, head north and talk about Waterloo with some real historians – and from all of that you get the impression that there is a genuine understanding that wars come at a price – and that sometimes, being bold, heroic, valiant, and brave – is just plain dump stupid ignorance forced on people by the entity in control.
Grieving mothers pick up the pieces. Real heroes walk away with tears in their eyes, hands shaking, and saying under their breath – “never, never again”.
Europe’s down 2% and there’s an ugly stain in the US futures as they get very nervous about the bond insurers.
All that rate cutting and the market hasn’t just gone straight up is a ‘not good’ omen.
This is one hell of an interesting year and it’s hardly started!
Mac, I order you to go to bed! LOL
Looking at CA’s past polls, I’m not sure there is value in $3.50.
RCP Average 01/13 to 01/29 – 45.0 33.3 10.5 Clinton +11.7
Rasmussen 01/29 – 01/29 807 LV 43 40 9 Clinton +3.0
SurveyUSA 01/27 – 01/27 888 LV 49 38 9 Clinton +11.0
Politico/CNN/LAT 01/23 – 01/27 690 LV 49 32 14 Clinton +17.0
USA Today/Gallup 01/23 – 01/26 779 HT 47 35 10 Clinton +12.0
Field 01/14 – 01/20 377 LV 39 27 10 Clinton +12.0
PPIC 01/13 – 01/20 543 LV 43 28 11 Clinton +15.0
I stand to be corrected, but does anyone know any more about the CA race?
Talking about ‘enemies’, isn’t it bizarre the way the USA makes such a fuss over a flea like Cuba?
I mean, the SOviet Union collapsed, but no, they MUST at all times, and resolutely deny anything which could assist the poor Cubans because they have a (shock horror) Communist dictatorship!
Tell me what ignoring Castro and just pretending he wasn’t there would do that so diabolical that they have to expend that much energy trying to strangle the place?
It makes no sense to me.
#455
Its simple – when Castro dies – America claims victory.
Some blogers have bought the McCain bait as did some in the CNN debate today
McCain lost the respect to be called a war hero from 40 years ago when he currently so tainted his record by his current political abuse of arguing that any opposition to the unjustified Iraq war is unpatriotic and that “he knows because he was a POW”
2,976 Aussies died in Vietnam and 56,000 Americans. They were all a war hero
many of whom died despite patriotically opposing the war
Asanque at 454, try these nationwide figures. The junior senator from Illinois has unleashed a paralysing burst in the back straight. Seems he’s got plenty left in the tank.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104044/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx
The following seems to be a good article in terms of framing the importance and potential impact of Super Tuesday relative to the overall race.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_commentary/commentary_by_rhodes_cook/super_tuesday
Enemy Combatant , yep
Obama nationally is only 6% behind and this Poll was taken before Edwards (who polled 12%) pulled out
On those figures you’d expect the % ’s to be about tied after distributing Edwards votes. If so , super Tuesday is going to be close in alot of States with CA the important one
A statement before I go to bed.
Would it be accurate to say that a “win” for Obama on Super Tuesday is to be within a few hundred delegates of Clinton? (remembering that by that stage around half, or 2000 delegates will have been awarded) It seems to me that she needs to knock him down right here, right now, or else she is going to be overrun by the tide which is carrying him.
A month ago the case would have been whoever wins the day all but wins the race. I think the point has been reached where the line in the sand isn’t ‘who can get past 1000 delegates after the day’ it’s ‘will Clinton have enough of a lead to starve off his oxygen?’ Obama simply has to win a big state or two and say ‘hey, I’m still here.’
Just my thinking.
#461
The republicans seem to reference a 15% lead as a definitive number. If we take that value it equates to a 272 delegate lead post-super-tuesday. Keep in mind that the phases basically break down as follows:
pre-super-tuesday: 137
super-tuesday: 1,681
post super-tuesday: 1,435
superdelegates: 796
Assuming a 3:2 split to Obama on existing Edwards delegates, we have a starting point of:
Obama: 80
Clinton: 57
Lats say that Obama gets 45% of the bound delegates and Hillary pulls in 55% on super-tuesday:
Obama: 756
Clinton: 925
That brings to total bound delegates to:
Obama: 836
Clinton: 982
I.e. a Clinton would have a lead of 146 delegates (or 8%) over Obama which is only half of what would be need to argue a mandate end-game. With another 1,435 post-super-tuesday delegates sill in the running the race would remain wide open. Into this are some 800 superdelegates that are not bound (although about 200 has indicated their intentions). If the post-super-tuesday events do not settle things – the superdelegates get to play their game big-time and you can be confident that the principal subject will be which delegate is most likely to whip the Republican opponent and guarantee the Democrats their victory.
Personally, I figure Obama is going to do better than 45%. In fact – I’m estimating that by the end of super-tuesday Obama will have gained about 860 bound delegates (representing about 48%) following which All Gore will give him his endorsement and we will witness the beginning of the end of the Clinton dynasty.
There was a big thunder storm here last night. Pelting rain, fallen branches and debris everywhere. But I slept well, very well. I had a dream. I dreamed that one day we all will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed: “We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men and nations are created equal.” That is all.
Obama sets fundraising record of $32m in January:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections08/story/0,,2250306,00.html#article_continue
Also rumours that the TERMINATOR will endorse McCain, hasta la vista baby.
Baz…
“Dis eez vot dee peeble off Kah-lee-for-nee-ah eleggded me to do!
Hi all -
sorry about the misquote last night re WHO figures. Got that wrong.
not sure who to believe on the casualty figures- the discrepancies are huge.
Max @ 461,
It’s an interesting thought, and I tend to agree.
Obama is bound to win Illinois, of course. (It’s about the fifth largest State at the Dem convention, and it’s on Tuesday). I’d reckon he needs another big one on Tuesday, and a decent smattering of small/medium States, to stay in the race.
Although I’m not sure how the delegate allocations work – ie which States are winner-take-all and which States work otherwise?
Any thoughts on the Maine (R) race, anyone? It’s “today” (effectively tomorrow for us Aussies).
#468
All Dem conventions are proportional.
Obama has now shaved HRC’s lead to 4% with four days to Large Tuesday. With momentum like this(the guy firmed 2% overnight) the aspirations of Rodham(how long since we’ve heard that?) Clinton are beginning to look a tad wobbly.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104071/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx
Diogenes @ 414 – The reason for the increased infant death toll during sanctions was mostly due to disease because a) water and sewage plants were deliberately targeted during the Gulf War – a war crime, and b) the Iraqis were not allowed to import the parts needed to repair them – possibly a war crime.
But as Madelaine Albright said when questioned about this by a US 60 minutes reporter:
Easy to say when it’s not your country’s babies, and it was mostly babies, who are paying the price! And something the Clinton supporters should keep in mind.
Hi Jen,
That’s OK. Most people here don’t worry about facts anyway.
Cheers.
What’s behind the Obama Surge (ha)?
Is it Edwards pulling out, or a general improvement in regard to O. Either way
HillBilly must be ready to start really slinging the mud.
Umm – possibly grossly misleadings, but I’m confident you can back this up with some real facts.
Mayo -
of course it was worth it. Think of the votes.
davidoff 475,
I’m sometimes a most people too!
I’ll leave it to you to trawl through the comments on this blog and separate the facts from unexpurgated opinionated drivel.
Should be a fun day for you!
#477
Your making the assertion without fact – I’ll leave it to you to back up your comment with substance (and if trawling is involved – just make sure you put in place the appropriate protection – after all, I would not you to catch anything).
GG
you mean fawning like this
“308
jen Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 10:06 pm
I think some of you ingrates have forgotten the great work Kirrabilli did at prising John and Janette out of their squat.”
oh i forgot kr singlehandedly got rid of the rodent-now he is off to save the USA
(with alittle help from his followers LOL)
“Your making the assertion without fact”
I think that is my point. You have a problem with this?
#481
Yep I may have a problem with that. The generalizations that you are characterizing have the potential to lower the tone and detract value – and I’m confident you would not want your comments to fall into such a category or be considered as anything less than your best.
gusface,
Despite my little spat last night with KR, his heroic services to suffering blogocracy in moving the Howards post election is something we should all admire and is certainly a debt we can never repay.
From the Huffington Post:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/31/former-fed-chairman-paul-_n_84313.html
GG
sorry i had my sarcasm meter off.
i will henceforth genuflect to the good garbos of lower kirribilli,as surely they (partly) removed the howard effluence weekly.
jsut dont remember his tag until the last part of the campaign(well at least my archives of oz politics etc show no reference till aug 07)
but hey why let facts get in the way of myth
Davidoff,
I am so unworthy.
#485
OK
A post I just read is interesting in that it raises a hypothetical scenario – an Obama/Bloomberg duo. Faith and vision backed by real financial muscle.
I find McCain’s “war hero” status and popularity among the military strange. Most military men are turned off by veterans who make a big whopping deal about their service, no matter how glorious it is. The best veterans are the ones that are humble about what they did, and consider themselves like any other man; McCain exhorts his “war hero” status at every oppourtunity.
It’s repulsive, just like his 100-year war in Iraq, his “immigration reform” and all the rest.
488
Michael
You missed a very strange stoush last night over this very subject. It got all crossed wired as some thought the criticism was that McCain somehow was not a ‘war hero’ when (I think) the real points were the ones you just made.
It’s all so clear and easy in the light of day, huh?
Is it stone the sinners time GG?
By the way everyone: we ALL express our opinions here!
Unless I’ve missed anyone who just cuts and pastes polling data without any amplification, sorry!
So get real, we are not dealing in facts exlusively, but using them to explain how we arrive at our opinions. I find it pretty strange that anyone could get stroppy about the very function of this blog.
472 MayoFeral- Thanks for that. I notice Maddy Albright has been prominent in Billary’s campaign and she’s a close Clinton friend. Given that she’s helping Billary with her foreign policy, she will be back in a Clinton Administration (God help us).
The effect of the sanctions were so disgusting that I am astounded they never get mentioned here. They were clearly totally ineffective in changing Saddam’s behaviour and killed 500,000 kids. While I do not support the war at all, when compared with the Clinton sanctions, I would argue that George W’s policy is morally superior to Clinton’s and that at least the war stopped the sanctions.
Sometimes a few words or a phrase kicks off some process in your head, and it gets ticking and puts old bits of machinery together,
and an old cog, and a shaft connects into the strange automatic transmission of memory and before long it’s humming and grinding
away with a life of its own.
Well, yesterday I kept thinking about Obama’s campaign as ‘warming up’, and nothing interesting about that, and then I recalled the
Florida winter of Rudy’s disconnect, and then wham, the cog and the shaft found it’s way to an image of a guy in a white suit,
walking across the white shining sands of a Miami beach as he laughed and shouted for joy that he had finally made it. He’d made it
to Florida from a cold and grey New York, a city that had almost killed him, this poor guy with the “wop” name, this little crippled
guy, this Enrico Rizzo, miraculously dancing across the pure white sand in his immaculate white suit. He’d arrived. He’d survived.
He’d transcended.
Except he hadn’t. He was quietly slipping away, huddled in a Grey Hound bus, and dreaming his last, as the cogs slowed down and
eventually stopped for the last time.
And then something even stranger happened after I’d written the above. There on Jon Stewart was a clip of the actor Jon Voigt, aged
and greyed, stumping for Rudy Giuliani! OMG, was this synchronicity…(again?). Stewart gently passed up any overt references to
Midnight Cowboy and settled for a quip about a lesser comedic movie part, but nothing could stop that machine in my head!
The Midnight Cowboy had been there, with Rudy, dreaming of Florida. He sat next to the dying Ratso, as both the dream and the
dreamer died.
Oh well, I thought, it could have been worse for Rudy. Instead of Ratso in Midnight Cowboy he could have been Voigt’s unfortunate
mate in Deliverance.
But then maybe Giuliani feels as if the voters of Florida did actually cast him in Deliverance.
Oink!
492
Diogenes
I’ve seen a fair bit of credible argument about the 500k dead kids, based on fairly sound demographic rates of population growth. Sometimes numbers become ‘mythical’ and get a life of their own.
That’s not to say the sanctions weren’t hard on Iraqis, they were, but they were like a flea bite compared to what they are suffering now.
ESJ,
I think I was “stoned” enough last night.
KR,
I agree. Time to complete the circle and sing Kumbayah. As long as we all remember that everyone can have an opinion and style and don’t take ourselves too seriously.
Cheers all.
Off to make another “Brazillian” Dollars.
KR- If that number is accurate, there haven’t been 500K dead kids since the war began so it’s hardly a flea-bite. OBL refers to it as genocide and it’s hard to argue with that. And as a policy, I think the sanctions were just as misguided as the war. What did they achieve? You could argue that Bill Clinton’s policies were more responsible for the rise in al Qaeda than George W’s, although he’s ben trying his best to give al Qaeda ammunition. And why don’t the US get out of Saudi Arabia?
#488
Michael
Of the people I’ve known, there is one man that comes to mind – he started out with a handful of kids in some god forsaken war-torn city on the East coas of Russia with order to get them to a safer place. As he moved west, he acquired more children, the numbers steadily accumulated. In the process he managed the protection, feeding and eduction of what eventually become a community of more than 500 children. In that process this man put his life on the line on several occasions involving at least three different armies. He managed the evacuation of these children to England – some of whom are alive today. There were no medals, he was not listed as a hero in any of the government records, in fact he never consider himself as a hero – perhaps more credible was the description of a quite and compassionate guy dealing responsibly with problems and issues in a difficult context.
Was his contribution any less than a POW? I don’t think so. But I do think that labeling an individual with the title of ‘hero’ is problematic. We all have the potential to lift ourselves to heroic actions but that moment is fleeting and it is not a definition of who were or are today. It is only a moment in time – with a given context and constraints often outside our control.
(Bloody Notepad format! I hate that, it looks crappy on the page.)
Sometimes a few words or a phrase kicks off some process in your head, and it gets ticking and puts old bits of machinery together, and an old cog, and a shaft connects into the strange automatic transmission of memory and before long it’s humming and grinding away with a life of its own.
Well, yesterday I kept thinking about Obama’s campaign as ‘warming up’, and nothing interesting about that, and then I recalled the Florida winter of Rudy’s disconnect, and then wham, the cog and the shaft found it’s way to an image of a guy in a white suit, walking across the white shining sands of a Miami beach as he laughed and shouted for joy that he had finally made it. He’d made it to Florida from a cold and grey New York, a city that had almost killed him, this poor guy with the “wop” name, this little crippled guy, this Enrico Rizzo, miraculously dancing across the pure white sand in his immaculate white suit. He’d arrived. He’d survived. He’d transcended.
Except he hadn’t. He was quietly slipping away, huddled in a Grey Hound bus, and dreaming his last, as the cogs slowed down and eventually stopped for the last time.
And then something even stranger happened after I’d written the above. There on Jon Stewart was a clip of the actor Jon Voigt, aged and greyed, stumping for Rudy Giuliani! OMG, was this synchronicity…(again?). Stewart gently passed up any overt references to Midnight Cowboy and settled for a quip about a lesser comedic movie part, but nothing could stop that machine in my head!
The Midnight Cowboy had been there, with Rudy, dreaming of Florida. He sat next to the dying Ratso, as both the dream and the dreamer died.
Oh well, I thought, it could have been worse for Rudy. Instead of Ratso in Midnight Cowboy he could have been Voigt’s unfortunate mate in Deliverance.
But then maybe Giuliani feels as if the voters of Florida did actually cast him in Deliverance.
Oink!
(ah, proper formatting, that looks nicer)
Dio, the whole ‘genocide’ argument with the Iraq sanctions pales into insignificance next to what came after.
Sorry, but I thought that was more than apparent.
Dio, on the whole subject of US Gulf policy and particularily Iraq, you’d have to conclude that they’ve made some big blunders. The sanctions were UN endorsed, they did contain Saddam, and although harsh on the population they clearly did not do what the subsequent war has managed to achieve.
As for OBL, he was hostile to the US only after he didn’t have Russians to fight anymore and would have used any argument once they stopped helping him.
News on the final Bush Budget.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/31/official-bushs-2009-bud_n_84348.html
Michael , where were u last night
We had blogers pedantically defending this repulsive McCain as if just because he WAS a war hero 40 years that he IS still one
McCain IS no longer a war hero for many , he lost the right to be one for many Aussie Vietnam vets by his replusive abuse of his record
eg. I’m patriotic ,
ANYONE who opposes the Iraq war is unpatriotic ,” I know I was a POW”
Well , the dead solders from the Vietnam War & their living mates find such manipulation repugnant & ceasing to be a war hero
#502
Ron – spot on.
Ron and David, the zeitgeist is connected on this subject. Here’s the last paragraph from Joan Walsh in today’s Salon:
Is McCain suggesting that anyone, no matter how hawkish, who suggests a day will come when American troops will leave Iraq is on the wrong side? I think he’s just written off the vast majority of the electorate. Plus, the way he’s bullied Romney in several debates — just before the New Hampshire primary was the worst — has been simply cruel and small. I know a lot of people quail at the prospect of war hero McCain squaring off against either a woman, Hillary Clinton, or a younger black man who opposed the war from the start, Barack Obama. Personally, I think either one of them will do just fine, because the country is on their side on the war, and they’re both more appealing and harder to rattle than the mighty McCain.
…so we aren’t the only ones to see it that way. McCain IS going against the majority of Americans for whom this Iraq war is not ‘heroic’ and their is no ‘victory’ to had keeping it going.
See the polls. McCain is arguing against the tide and using his status as ‘war hero’ for authority.
But will it filter down into any sort of a super-tuesday impact?
If Swarzenegger endores McCain then the headline surely has to be “McBain endorses McCain”.
no , reckon McCain will win the most delegates with a winning nomination lead
Romney is a Mormon & within the secrecy confines of the voting booth enough voters will come out to cost him votes
bias
McBain is indeed in: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2008/01/31/VI2008013102439.html?hpid=artslot
well thats CA for McCain ?
#507
I would have agreed with you yesterday – but after watching the Republican debate with the worm – Romney was looking like Run and McCain like Howard. And we know that the worm tells no lies …
I’ve been surprised at how well Romney has stuck in there so far. Think he will be around for a while yet.
How many blogers here would support Al Gore over Obama ?
I wonder how much the support for Obama here and in the US is driven by dislike for Hillary & likeness for Obama’s great oratory
I’m not lover of Hillary but I ask the question
Presidents Nixon , Ford , Carter , Reagan , Bush snr , Clinton , Bush jnr
Where do the Clintons fit or do we think Hillary’s policys are different to Bill’s
#511
I read somewhere recently (lat 24 hours) that Romney has pulled out another 40 million from the family saving account and that this will be applied towards the super-tuesday appeal. My guess is that Romney is in the pipeline for at least another month.
40m….hmm , just shows ‘all men are born equal in the US’
but not when it comes to running for office
505
davidoff
I think McCain sweeps it, and Romnoid will be out after Feb 5, whether some people feel squeemish about McCain’s “I know what’s happening in Iraq” or not. (Sure, he might really know what’s going on in Iraq, but that doesn’t mean he’s actually telling everyone like it really is either. Just remember his ‘walk’ through the market, a complete set-up for the cameras.)
So I think McCain has managed to be a bit lucky with timing (the ’surge’ has been spun for MUCH more than it really is) and his opposition is really lousy. He is obviously a man of much substance against the likes of Huckster, Thompson or Romney, and is not a whacko egomaniac like Giuliani.
Nup, my money is very safe on McCain (even if Obama doesn’t get up I’m well ahead)
Ron,
I would argue that great oratory is an incredibly powerful tool. With a similar suite of policies, it can be assumed that Obama would be able to carry more support among a cross-section of the US (and Congress if his record in Illinois is anything to go by) than the more divisive Hillary. Obama has also reenergised the youth vote, and is very popular with college students and young people generally in a way that Hillary is not. These sort of things are not hard black and white policy, but very positive for a longer progressive outlook for government. Political conditions mean that we will not get great policy divergence from either camp in the leadup to the election (as was the case in Australia), and in that case, the posturing and support gained by each figure is important. Just as Labor is now apologising and talking about the aspects of the intervention as ‘controversial’, once the situation is right, I hold out more hope for a more progressive agenda from Obama than Hillary.
I make no secret of the fact that I was never a Hillary supporter, but I find the Team Clinton tactics have been a great turnoff, and am now anti-Clinton rather than just cold on her. The lying and manipulation in Michigan and Florida, the race politics…but then I guess she realises that she cannot take Obama on in words (he will win) and he has amassed more money than her, and as impressive an organisation. Further, the nasty tactics have backfired so far. The Presidency she expected to be gifted seems to be slipping away.
If, as some others have mentioned above, Hillary cannot blow Obama out of the water on Feb 5, then it is expected that Gore will endorse Obama, stump with him, and become the insider candidate. Then she will have little left.
I wouldn’t dare stir the pot by claiming that Bill was a great hope but disappointing as a president, but I would say that his speeches seem to be about him, and the impression I get is that he and Albright and several other Clintonistas just want to get back to 90s business as usual.
Finally, I wouldn’t support Gore over Obama for the reasons listed above about Obama’s skills as well as his power as an energising figurehead.
Hillary will win. Why do you think they ran Master and commander starring geena Davis? (apparently she is a mensa but my wife said she was dumb as dogs doodoo when she met her-geena that is). to get the Americans used to a female president. They are not yet ready for a black person unfortunately. It is all formately from here. Clinton will get 2 terms.
formality
Oh by the way, it was funny to watch the Terminator and “Ratso” (I cannot get that image out of my head now!!!) standing behind McCain.
What is it with American politics and Hollywood? They seem to be melding into some cyber-fantasy with bits of reality embedded into the celluloid characters of their dream machine. Jon Voigt, the Terminator, it’s doing my head in!
Betcha 5 bucks centaur.
479
gusface
Iwasn’t fawning. Iwas talking about removing the furniture (hence the name, get it?) Think you may have nbeen outof the loop then.
You can apologise whenever you like.
Fawning and Tirana . Hmmm. I may start to take offence.
Oh, and I reckon Obama to take California with his January warchest for advertising, sweeping through Hispanic areas with Ted Kennedy, along with college and young populations is a great bet. Particularly if you can still find the $4 odds.
You’re on Cisco
davidoff , you were brave enough to make a prediction for super Tuesday , so let me join you so blogers after the event can laugh
predict Clinton on average over the States will end up with a margin of only 4%
because Obama seems to gaining significant momentum & endorsements
predict a 75% Edwards split to Obama ,
ie. with their pre existing delegates I think Clinton will both come out of super Tuesday with about a 50 lead….not enough to stop Obama overtaking her
CA may be the key State and the existing Super Delegate category has been reported with varying numbers
and on the Republicans…..McCain easily and Roney to quit
#
512
Ron Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 11:01 am
Not me .. I prefer Obama over Gore for the POTUS, and part of that is that I like Al Gare in the role he has taken on the international stage. A couple of years ago I was thinking that Bill Clinton would have done something similar under the United Nations – but the last couple of months make that sort of international stage stuff out-of-scope.
For me – the points you mention are factors. But – here is my rationalization … I like the guy mainly on (a) his world view – how he views other countries and the role of America in a global community, and (b) his commitment to better governance (open debates, participation by ordinary people, real engagement of the public in the campaign, opposition to closed door processes – yes – I believe the guy.
I’m mixed on this – I feel that 45% of Hillary’s vote is coming from people who are just voting to get Bill back in the Oval Office and a six pack of cigars. I also have the feeling that Bill has got other things on his mind and that getting Hillary locked up in the White House is the silver lining in the cloud we call an election. But this is more about gut feeling that anything substantive.
At the end of the day – I like Bill, but I don’t trust him, and if I was locked up in a cell with Hillary overnight, well, I would want to check my insurance first – thing is, I’m checking my insurance because I’m betting I would be in dangerous territory as opposed to counting on Hilary fighting for my legal rights (and I would not be holding my breath for Bill to roll in a save the day either). But if I change this image and I image Obama and I stuck in a cell – in my mind its much that same as being stuck in the Flight Deck Lounge with Paul Keating (i.e. memorable and entertaining).
Ah, the spirit of two-up is alive and kicking downunder!
Pancho, I liked your post, and broadly agree. From where I sit, Hillary looks to be a pretty divisive figure, especially when hubby’s standing nearby. I cannot see that kind of antipathy for Obama, and most people seem to agree he’s ‘likable enough’!
When 40% of people say they won’t vote for Clinton under any conditions then she’s got big negatives, and they’ve not been helped any recently with Bill’s antics.
I too was fairly neutral about her until this campaign got ‘warmed up’, and now I’m with you: she’s not looking good next to Obama.
Obama is in to $3 from $3.60 late last night on Betfair for the California primary. Those are still good odds – Clinton is in front in the polls today. But we can’t ignore The Narrowing. If a few things happen to accelerate this steady narrowing, such as ringing endorsements of Obama from Edwards and Gore, then it could just be enough. It’s only a 2 horse race after all, and the young gelding is coming down the outside with a withering burst in the last furlong.
What odds are you giving Pancho, Centaur?
I’m no booky my hepatic friend so it would be a a gentelmans straight up and Koudos winner bet. Like in trading places $1 is a plenty.
Kudos not Kouros the greek god
davidoff #526
agree with your all points except Gore, Obama looks & sounds the goods whereas Hillary is so divisive to many. Obama as u say has sound aspirations
BUT to say:
I also have the feeling that Bill has got other things on his mind and that getting Hillary locked up in the White House is the silver lining
how could you doubt Bill’s re-committment to their marriage…gosh
yep , Panckho, your logic is undeniable
davidoff #526
agree with your all points except Gore, Obama looks & sounds the goods whereas Hillary is so divisive to many. Obama as u say has sound aspirations
BUT to say:
I also have the feeling that Bill has got other things on his mind and that getting Hillary locked up in the White House is the silver lining
how could you doubt Bill’s re-committment to their marriage…gosh
yep , Pancho, your logic is undeniable
Ron @ 512 – On foreign policy I expect Hillary to be even more hawkish than Bill, especially in the first term when she’ll be wanting to prove she has balls.
hit button twice to correct Panch’s spelling
and stuffed it up again….its all Hillary’s fault Pancho as she’s so hot
I think (given all of the preceding discussions) that we have reasonable ground to grant me ‘hero’ status.
The Democrat’s Debate (or face-off, in this case!) is on Hollywood Boulevarde.
How apt.
533
MayoFeral , that may be a good thing IF its directed to removing the 41 year virus thats been in the Middle East…the Palestinian Israel fiasco
No male President has had the courage to fix this mess and as the US finances Israel’s budget (check their Budget papers) they have always had the leverage
correcting my post …
I think (given all of the preceding discussions) that we have reasonable ground to grant me ‘hero’ status.
Sounds like we are in perfect agreement. I’m speculating Obama at 48% post Tuesday relative to Hillary Clinton (and I’m assuming this is a two horse race – so for the purpose of the exercise – that means Hillary at 52) which means a Clinton margin of 4%.
yes – that’s better
Centaur – Well at your odds, I’ll stick with Betfair and get the kudos AND the better return, although the arrangement will be purely business rather than gentlemanly -:)
537 KR – The debate could be important to Obama’s momentum. Clinton will try to attack Obama on policy detail do you think?
The best quote today …
“Like millions of New Yorkers, Rudy Giuliani chose to die in Florida.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/margaret-carlson/rudy-exits-with-temper-m_b_84344.html
541
jaundiced view
Yep, it’s going to be a knock’em down drag’em out affair, I reckon.
And it’s going to have the nation (and of course California, watching it).
Hillary must make it look like Obama is too ‘green’, and to do that she must keep going on about her ‘record’, and this can start to sound like a broken record, especially to those who aren’t so sure it’s been all that wonderful.
Obama has to deflect this and point out that Hillary is just a continuation of Washington’s worst element, like the Iraq war, the Katrina disgrace and a myriad malfunctions and dysfunctions.
There isn’t that much between them on a lot of policy areas, but he does sound more uniquely himself on foreign policy whereas she sounds like the usual ‘triangulating’ machine that keeps them tying themselves up in knots.
Oh well, just a few thoughts, now…on with the show.
Click…CNN.
542
davidoff
yeah, just like “Ratso”, with Jon Voigt by his side.
Hillary and Obama on CNN right now. Either way, history will be made. First Female Prez or First Black Prez. As long as they win, as long as they win!
davidoff,
My 4% margin (making Hillary 52%) was based on a Gallop Poll late night showing a 6% Hillary margin FROM 10% a short time ago
…however I’ve re-read it and noticed Edwards was STILL then in that Poll and he got 12%
On that basis I’d assume the best Hillary can get is 51% in a 2 horse race because I feel the overwhelming % of Edwards support will go to Obama.
So my figure is 51% for Hillary….geez Obama is going to come out well on tuesday. What u reckon
if Hillary does lose it will be like Guliani, both overestimated their initial position of strength and failed to see that much of their support was simply ‘parked’ with them as the Dem or Rep with high name recognition.
#546
OK – here is a direct cut
davidoff: Obama: 48%
ron: Obama 49%
And we will inevitably argue about the Edwards split – but if either of us are even close we will both be happy!
Anyone else that can’t get CNN, theres an ny times blog, here: http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/31/live-blogging-the-la-debate/index.html?hp
My gut feeling is that Obama will come out of Super Tuesday well, he is impressive and now well cashed up. I think the US will go for his change agenda, especially after the neo-con years. Hillary will be seen as more of the same, tired agenda of last century. Let us all hope that Nader stays firmly in his box come November!
Anyone know of a live feed to the debate that works from a Linux box?
I like Obama as much as anyone else, and I agree with Pancho’s earlier post.
However the cynic in me still says Clinton to win most states easily for super Tuesday.
The most recent poll by Gallop’s may show Obama closing, however, the trend shows that this may be nothing more than an anomaly or rogue poll. The trend is up, but very slowly.
Then again, polls have been wrong on many occasions so far, so one can only hope
552
asanque , no way you could be a cynic….only Libs are cynics
Ron-asanque is a Cynic (capital C as am I). The Libs are cynics. There’s a big difference.
Obama on experience: “We need to move forward with new leadership.”
That sounds familiar…
# 552
asanque:
Find a comfortable chair and listen to the guy. Then get up, grab a glass of Chardonnay and slide into the music. Post back a note if you have any doubts.
Another Republican bites the dust – (Virginia) which is trending Democrat. More information about the Primaries and Caucuses. General news from the Votemaster.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
“It took a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush, it will take another Clinton to clean up the second Bush”. She nailed it!!
I am biased but I do think she is doing better than Obama, especially on the Health issue. Obama looks very timid to me and sometimes unsured.
I’m still only halfway through watching the debate and it just shines through how incredibly able both of these candidates are.
And when Obama can dismiss Romney with a line about his not getting much return on the millions he’s spent on his campaign, you just marvel at the ease and grace.
Either of them will make McCain look like a dinosuar.
KR – The American political debate makes ours amateurish and childish. Give me the Yankees anytime (When comes to political debate)
I’m just catching the posted episodes.
I find it far too hard to believe that a country that allowed black people to vote 40 years ago 9abolishing slavery only 140 years ago) will vote for a black president. Didn’t anyone watch mississippi burning last night?
MoveOn.org is conducting a poll of its members to see if the organisation should endorse one Democratic candidate, must get a 2/3 vote to be endorsed, voting closes Friday 11am their time (ET US):
“Right now, we have an opportunity to influence who our next president is—3.2 million MoveOn members together. When we surveyed over 200,000 MoveOn members yesterday to see if we should go forward with an endorsement process, a big majority said “yes.”
So it’s time to ask the question: Who should MoveOn endorse in the Democratic primary? If two-thirds of MoveOn members support one candidate, we’ll campaign for that candidate together.”
559 KR- It’s interesting you should say that about McCain’s poor debating. The right-wing Repugs have also been saying that for a while and they think he’ll get destroyed one-on-one by Billary or especially Obama, so much so that he’s got no chance to win POTUS. A lot of them say he comes across as more addled-brained than Georgie Boy and they are using it as argument for choosing Romney (who comes across as wooden as a cigar store Indian IMHO).
I’m getting really annoyed with CNN sound bites.
564
Diogenes
Impressive debate, with one VERY clear loser:
The Republican Party!
Instead of the dessicated slogans and sound bites that George’s script writers have been peddling these last 7 years, here were two sophisticated, articulate US Senators, not arguing with themselves over minute differences of policy, but debating the issues with the American people. It was about Americans, for Americans and by Americans, and not a deranged Neoconservative robot of whacky ideological positions grafted onto the military/corporate body.
I was truly impressed to see them behave with such dignity and intelligence and I’d be pretty sure most of America (that hasn’t been conditioned by the Ann Coulters and Rush Limbaughs) will say ‘amen’ to that.
Democrats: 1
Republican: A big fat zero
Dio, didn’t you love Obama’s dismissal of the “CEO” and Clinton’s conflating him with the “MBA” doofus they’ve got now!
Classic.
Yeah, McCain is pretty stodgey, but Romney is, as you say, a store dummy comapred with either Democrat.
565
davidoff
That’s what a hard disc is for: FAST FORWARD!
#568 fizzxphzitpuh
I’m only up to the bit where Hillary is exposing the housekeeping abilities of dear Bill.
When is Rudd going to sack that di*khead Keelty? Keam has now been cleared by the Legal Commision and made the GGs Australian of the Year. Keelty has unilaterally asked for a media blackout of all terrorism cases until the verdict is reached (which is inevitably innocent as the Keystone Cops are bumbling idiots), and been rebuked by both the Government and Opposition for it. Is there a more incompetent and embarrasing high profile public servant in Australia. The man should have a control order on him as he is the single biggest threat to national security in the country.
Rant over.
Diogenes – have a look at Richard Ackland’s piece on Inspector Clouseau today if you haven’t seen it. He’s with you:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/look-out-reptiles-here-come-keeltys-size-12s/2008/01/31/1201714145872.html
571
Diogenes
Keelty is just straining to win the Oz version of the GITMO AWARD for extra special service to the nation in banging up blokes with funny names and paranoid secrecy.
He’s a modest guy, he doesn’t want the media telling us just what a great job he’s doing protecting us from young Indian doctors! (it’s the old ones he should’ve been locking up!)
Ron @ 538 – About the only thing Hillary is likely to do to fix the “the Palestinian Israel fiasco” is carpet bomb all the West Bank Palestinian villages and Gaza. Bill Clinton tried to railroad Arafat into accepting what would have been a disasterous agreement and then sold him down the river when he baulked.
Obama, probably won’t be that bad, but if he served 2 terms then I expect the Palestinian Israel situation would still be at least as big a fiasco in 2017 as it is now.
What it needs is a true honest broker who is prepared to follow international law and you won’t find one of them at any level of the U.S. political system, including elected dog-catcher. The Palestinians may just have to wait until China becomes the world’s supreme economic and military power.
Look, don’t be so hard on Keelty.
We simply don’t have enough terrorists in Australia to keep the AFP in business. Keelty, as a sympathetic employer, decided that – rather than going to government and admitting that, basically, there wasn’t anything for his guys to do – he’d better find some work for them (this is called ‘job creation’).
This was then horribly misread by the Australian public as the AFP trying to frame an innocent man.
The solution, obviously, is not to stop trying to frame innocent men in a desperate attempt to keep former AFP employees off the streets, but to stop the media talking about what you’re doing so that you can keep on framing innocent men and keep the perks ticking over.
And it’s all unfair anyway, because the person involved wasn’t even an Australian, has dark skin, admits to being a Muslim and has a funny name…so how could Keelty predict that anyone would care?
Keeping on topic ..
A wrap up of the 17th Democrat debate.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/31/live-blogging-the-la-debate/
It seems for the Democrat supporters here it’s a case of pragmatism vs idealism. Clinton/Obama respectively.
I don’t want a Repub win either, and Obama looks promising (although at this stage long on rhetoric and short on substance). Clinton is far from ideal but at least she’s a Dem. I’m firmly in the pragmatist camp and am convinced that the first black president, when it does come, will come from the conservative side.
There is no way that a black Democrat will be elected president in 2008.
Saw a recent US poll which had a whopping 30% opposing mixed race marriages. This has nothing to do with politics but shows the continuing problem many Americans have with colour. The racists will rally to the call like never before if Obama gets the nomination. The Republican campaign will be ferocious and dog whistles abound. There is so much at stake.
The office of President of the USA elevates a mere politician to a position of immense reverence. This is a US phenomenon and is unlike any other genuinely elected world leader. To have a black president will look, (sadly) for all too many, like the sky if falling.
A black president will need bipartisan (race) support and this can only come if the black candidate is a Republican. Another Colin Powell type or maybe Condi in eight years (after re-imaging from that of a neo-con cheerleader).
Clinton wins nomination – she’ll be long odds on.
Obama wins nomination – for mine he’ll be odds against and likely another four years of a Republican president.
Democrat supporters – take your pick.
Diogenes @ 571 – I wonder if Keelty would have been rebuked by the Opposition if they’d still been in government. Would Howard and, especially, Andrews have said a single word against him? Would the price of pork go up if pigs flew?!
577
bryce
It’s an interesting issue, and I know there are many who would not vote for Obama because he is ‘black’, but most of those people would not vote for a Democrat either!
So it remains to be seen how many of the ‘over 30’s’ whites will see him as a viable candidate. How many of Edwards’ voters (who already have shown a preference against HRC) will go for Obama’s youth and charisma? Hard to tell, but it’s thought to be a telling margin.
As for the general election, I think once Obama wins the nomination (which is still a real possibility) the issue of his race will actually be all but off the table. In other words, even oblique references to it will send more voters to him in revulsion.
It will be REALLY interesting if he does get up.
Remember Keelty when he got slapped down by Howard for telling the truth on our involvement in the Iraq war increasing the likelihood of a terrorist attack in Australia?
Keelty was rebuked and has had a hard time adapting to a new government that is transparent, tells the truth, is competent and not racist.
Keelty has always been a bit of a doofus, but an adaptable one.
For anyone interested in the Keim decision by the Qld Legal Services Commission, all relevant material (including the LSC letter to Keim outlining their reasoning) can be found at:
http://www.lsc.qld.gov.au/media-room.htm
slartybardfast, re post 271.
We could hold a book on the next US president. I will frame the prices and all losing bets can be donated to William. For example, if Glen wanted $10 on Obama @ 3/1 I would record that bet as 30/10 Obama with Glen. If Obama wins I will pay William $30. If Obama loses then Glen promises to pay William $10 after the presidential election.
I will check all bets offered when I can and if I accept the bet I will make a post confirming such.
I reserve the right to update the prices whenever I see fit, and given that William will be the big winner to keep this site going, I will frame the prices to 115%.
William if you are happy to give me the all clear, I am happy to proceed.
- Clinton 1/1
- McCain 7/4
- Obama 7/2
- Romney 20/1
- Huckabee 100/1
- any other 100/1
#582
Centre:
I just checked with the Obama camp on the Glen endorsement and every was going hunckydory, but I made a mistake a slipped out something about Glen past affiliations with Howard – and after that the line went dead.
#582 – Centre – I also said that I will my money where my keyboard is. I will donate $50 to WB if Hillary wins. $20 if Obama wins. WB gets my tears if McCain wins. Fair enough?
583
davidoff
ooooh, that’s funny!
If the two Democrat candidates were trying to look and sound presidential then the event on Hollywood Boulevarde was a damn fine show.
Whatever the the Repuglies try to chuck in the way of dirt (or their own faeces, which is so often the case), it’s going to be pretty hard to make either of these two look inferior to either of the two white blokes they’ve got left in the barrell, (Huck is only there to take the Edwards role ie odd man out!)
Come next January, unless the Bobby Kennedy Syndrome(BKS) strikes again (twice), we are going to see the USA turn back onto something most of here would recognize as the path to somewhere decent.
Hale-bloody-lujah!
Centre, is this where I point out that conducting betting on this site would be a breach of several pieces of legislation?
Centre – I tell you what … when Obama wins I’ll spread the love.
(and if I break legislation in the process – so be it)
KB – Don’t know about the BK Syndrome, but whoever gets the Oval Office should be okay. Its only the presidents elected in a year divisible by 20 that have gone bellyup on the job – okay, Ronnie survived but some claim he was already brain dead when shot.
Which means that GWB should lay real low for the next 11 months. Though I do wonder what the fates will be telling us if Cheney is the one that kicks the bucket this year!
Sorry guys, my wife has just read my last post and she said that if I think I am going to spend every night on the computer I will be getting divorced.
Getting divorced is going to cost me a lot more than I would ever have to give William lol. That’s if the booked had shown a liability of course.
Ignore my post 582 guys.
Ferny G,
It would not have been a breach of any piece of legislation. It is another form of donating.
If anyone cares to look at the simply mind-boggling amount of money the Fed Reserve is doshing out (and putting a booster rocket under a sick market like last nights massive turn around), here’s the numbers from yesterday:
$74 billion in 1 day Repurchase Agreements (35.6B in Mortgage Backed!)
$43.45 bilion 14 days (18.9B in Mortgage Backed!)
Holy smokin’ mother of god, even in the bad old days of the NASDAQ meltdown and the collapse of the entire Dot.com bubble, a big day at the Fed only ran up to $10B plus change!
That’s over 100 Billion sloshed into the system in ONE FREAKIN’ DAY!
And for those who’ve been paying attention for the last decade, that little bit of “Mortgaged Backed” securities, which the Federal Reserve Bank of America is ‘buying’ from the system, is a newly acquired class of ‘collateral’.
The Fed is now taking some of the ‘free market’s’ risk here ladies and gentleman.
It’s a ‘new age’, and it has a look and feel of desperate and risky times.
davidoff,
looks like you’ve been on all day.
Found any facts yet?
589
MayoFeral
Astonishing bit of numerology there Mayo! LOL
I was being slightly flippant with the BKS thing, but maybe deep down I do actually fear that every time there’s someone of promise there’s a sudden tragic death.
(Read through the Wiki stuff and what’s on the public record about BK’s shooting and you’ll quickly see it was anything but what it seemed ie a lone nutter).
And hey, I’m not usually inclined to mad conspiracy theories! Looking at the current admin you’d have so say mental impairment and incompetence is the biggest factor! LOL
Centre don’t think so but its now academic seeing you’ve chosen your wife over us
Oh, here we go again!
Just ignore it davidoff, he’s just channelling that other loud snide poster.
KR what the Fed has done is still small change to the trillions yes trillions the US has as a trade deficit debt
The system is relying on the US dollar’s stability but if the inflows slow then its the D word
In the debate today thought Obama was sounder on Iraq , Hillary on Heathcare and they have similar policys on immigration except Hillary won’t give drivers licenses to ‘illegal’ immigrants
Thought the debate dwelt mostly on policys although both candidates were very respectful to each other perhaps due to Super tuesday….any thoughts ?
#592
Just out of interest – I’m wondering what the net-present-value would be of the dot-com crash .. i.e. comparing apples with apples. Any financial wizards around?
Mayo @ 578 Who’s managing him? The shilling @ Hendo’s shed was followed up by the gaghdad sniper(s) @ news…smacks of marketing to me…that would be b but on second thoughts…
Well the big guys shares are great particularly Google.Because its been a growth industy the winners are those that held their nerve or bought at the bottom
Super Funds were the big losers….mostly small investors
Its the Republican way….survival of the richest
#598
Ron
Call me cynical but I figure this is the Party (lead by Ted Kennedy) jumping on Bill, Hillary, and Barack – emphasizing the part image priority (i.e. something like the line of Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment).
it does look that way to contrast to the frosty Republican McCain and Romney relationship
KR,
Snide has become the new Hubris eh!
597
Ron
The issue is not the federal deficit, it’s the problem of the financial market’s liquidity (or in this case, really severe lack of it!)
When you’ve allowed the financial markets to basically grow on cheap credit and the expectation that money will always be there to paper over any cracks, it comes as a very rude dislocation to discover there isn’t any. None to be borrowed or ‘created’, and then you either have to go to the Chinese or the Arabs with hat in hand, and at the same time get the Fed to release massive amounts of daily powder for the market to snort.
So to see those kinds of numbers, is for this little brown duck at least, simply eye-popping!
604
Greeensborough Growler
It’s funny GG, but I keep falling over that word everywhere now! Sheeesh, how does that happen?
(Article in Salon, Greenwald I think it was, mentioned some comment from McCain as ’snide’)
It’s scary! The word is following me around! Ah, there it is…
(Kidding!)
KR , you are dead right….unfortunately I’m suggesting it could get worse if the Chinese & Arab money inflows slow as thats whats holding up the dollar from becoming a pesco
GG , we all have sinned ……
so I’m happy to be Mr snide in exchange for your political views
KR @ 592 – said:
As per what I posted in another thread a couple of days ago, this is over a quarter of what it would cost the US government to install enough solar arrays plus storage capacity to replace all U.S. oil imports, and nearly all their coal fired power stations.
Shows you how easy it would be if only there was the political will to resist Big Oil and Coal (and probably also the Military Industrial Complex who gain most from America’s wars for oil security).
607
Ron
I’ve not yet read this, but I did catch most of an interview with its author on radio a few days back:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200801/fallows-chinese-dollars
…it canvasses this very question, and it’s a very profound one for all the players.
KR , excellent article on the 1.4 trillion of Chinese money in US bonds & growing
It was the general point I was making but the article makes the point & issue more precisely & in far greater detail than I’d been aware
#609 – a heavy / dark article
Ron/David
I’ll get around to it later, but I must say the author sounded pretty interesting.
Ah, the rumour mill is grinding away:
Gore has already seen one presidency (his own) slip away over a handful of votes. He must have pondered how it would feel to play kingmaker and shore up someone else’s path to the White House.
A well-connected Tennesseean told me two things today that got me thinking about this. The first is that Obama and Gore have been speaking regularly, about every two weeks or so. The second is that, despite this, and despite Tennessee’s primary on Tuesday, Obama has not visited the state since June. It may be simply that he does not plan on competing there. Or it may be that he’s been waiting for a special occasion.
…the Atlantic.
Hey Kirribilli Removals or whoever you are,
I am going out but I will be on later to smack you down, biatch!
Really its enough, there are no adjectives you are just boring which really is the cardinal sin of blogging!
Oooh, a slapping from Mr Snidely! I’m so excited!
Let’s see, the last few have been doozies:
“you are a plagiarist”…ah, I’m not, and his ‘proof’ was a snide remark that turned out to be like him, hot air.
“you called me a paedophile”…ah, I most certainly did not. His comment was a pure lie.
“you are just boring”…good to see my readership expanding to include the verbally challenged, but you’d expect better than that for yet another gratuitous insult.
Mr Snidely, lift your game. The level of your insults is sliding down the slippery pole, but go ahead, smack away, if that amuses you.
So Ron can you please tell, is John MCain a war hero or not and should he use he previous soldierly experience in his campaign.
ESJ and KR, Bill Lawry is right.
This means War!
GG – It’s all happening at MCG
The ultimate turn on.
One day blogging
im popping out for some grog and nibblies before the main event :0
No surprises the little Maltese biatch has done a runner! Its time for a de-fanging. Where are you biatch?
someone needs to organise icepacks and mechurochrome.
620 – The erotic tension is palpable. The sooner the two get a room, the sooner we can acknowledge your love
Rumble in the Jungle?
And I have to declare i am Baraking (to keep on thread) for Kirribilli.
Hands down.
ESJ deserves a good smack.
what’s it all about alfie?
is it just for the moment we live
what’s it all about when you sort it out alfie
are we meant to take more than we give
or are we meant to be kind
and if only fools are kind alfie
then i guess it’s wise to be cruel
Ah jen your “champion” just seems to have a little old yeller in him. Frankly I am not surprised. I’ll wait for another hour but frankly he seems to have turned tail.
Jen you can “smack” me anytime!
626 So what’s on here? The cricket was a damp squib, so some verbal jousting would be good. Queensbury Rules of course, and naturally on the US Primaries topic only.
Unfortunately my favourite maltese old yeller does not have any original viewpoints on the topic jaundiced view, he is probably refueling on reaclearpolitics for a few “opinions”.
For all you home observers we have a specially photoshopped photograph of William Bowe with artificial perspiration and rings of fiery damnation encircling his cherubic visage. There are only 500 originals. The special blog option has intermittent images of ESJ and KR circling William telling him they are really trying to be nice.
This item will never be seen again.
Roll up Roll up only $543.25
All proceeds to the Bill Bowe Blog Protection Association.
Nolo contendre GG, in the words of cool hand luke “he got rabbit in his blood”
see what happens?
start discussing US politics and we end in war.
He got eggs in his mouth!
Actually jen I’d say Chez KirribilliR has been deserted (and left you in the guest room) as my tanks roll up the front lawn
one more egg GG?
WSJ #627 You remind me of the Melbourne tycoon I heard tell of who used to pay a dominatrix (who was a bit of a lefty) to beat him around the head with a copy of the Communist Manifesto. Bit of a woos really – the Manifesto is far to slim. She should have surprised him one appointment by giving him a good whack with the Grundrisse.
Ooh yeah now WE ARE talking Robert Bollard! I find the left is sadly all talk when it comes to administering firm discipline however!
What’s the consensus after the debate today – can Obama sneak up on Clinton on Tuesday to be close enough to garner the magic number at the convention? Seems to me there’s still an outside chance for him. It will be a big few days for him to increase the momentum.
Meanwhile SBS had a doco on those freaky Mormons earlier tonight, about how they have become part of “mainstream America”. Well if they have successfully integrated it is now “weirdstream America”. Romney’s success or otherwise will be a litmus test of how effectively they have worn earthly dress over their alien skins to ingratiate themselves.
Robert -
I was trying to dig out the White pages .
ESJ,
Are we communicating yet?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fuDDqU6n4o
GG Yes sir boss! Shaking that tree boss! Shaking that tree
jen I love that mother russia exterior you present on this blog!
How are u jen and your kids under 11 soccer team
the 20/20 game was great with the aussies just sensational
When I used the word “consensus” at 638, it of course should be taken to mean on this thread “violently opposed opinions” .
and are you jen surrounded by our little right wing pygmies tonight
the precous things only come out of the closet after dark
Oh what a treat the pekinese is back! I always thought he was the intact one!
pompous toff always lurking in the shadows
jaundiced view
you ask about the debate , did you see it
thought Obama was solid on Iraq policy and Hillary shakey due to her earlier initial support .
Whereas on a substantive debate on Healthcare, obama was not convincing & unsure of detail , whilst Hillary knew her stuff & her proposal of a Medicare type policy had grounds
On Immigration they semed to draw
Unlike previous debates they were mostly very respectful of each other possible being aware of the impending Super tueday primarys
Everyone, welcome Ron to the field. He has his own theme song.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Urtiyp-G6jY
19 is a great age GG
although you may have been in rooms studying at the time whilst we had partys
648 Ron – I didn’t see it, but read the CNN blog page reporting it as it unfolded. Seems like they both did well. It should help Obama, as he is the one who needs to show weight, she already has it, so he should get more from a good performance than Clinton will. Or is that wishful thinking? My bets on Obama are colouring my view perhaps.
Ron,
ESJ has a tank. Best beware of thing s that go boom. eh!
never thought a mini rodent would have a tank
the last of Howards rodentsmen
Back from the BDO. Say the best band in the world (Arcade Fire) and George W Bush’s most hated band Rage Against The Machine. The crowd surprised me. Never knew we had so many angry people in Adelaide. Was lucky to get out alive even wearing my “Bite the Hand” George W T-shirt.
Not wishful thinking jaundiced view…Obama gains credibility & momentum out of breaking even (in my view) in such an important debate
Last night he was only 6% behind on the Gallop Poll with Edwards in the Poll
Edwards is now out
Edwards 12% votes should split up to 75% to Obama
so its now close Poll wise..as at before the Debate
However these are National Polls & the state by state primary splits will vary but Obama is “narrowing” fast
Oh yeah the Pekinese as a swinger – I’d love to see that GG!
thats a somewhat hedonistic activity for a stoic/cynic such as yourself diogenes!
when we swing , we step on mini rodents
which is why they lurk in the closet
I have just caught up on the thread since my last post at 5.32pm. Wow, do we all have to declare whose side we’re on.
Jen is siding with Kirribilli I see. Well if I was called a molester or a plagiariser, I can assure you I wouldn’t be siding with the one who used the word starting with m.
Ed St J, I’m amazed, you have managed to put a sock in his mouth???
pompous toff’s mouth would not fit a sock
because of the dribble coming out of it
Well good night All,
Hopefully balance in the force has been restored and the midiclorian count is back to normal!
Ron @ 660,
That is a very unkind thing to say about your old cove KR.
GG you jest as you know pompous toff is ESJ
who I notice is running back to his rodents closet as we speak
Centre your man (or should I say mini rodent) ‘has left the building’ away from another losing stouch
Comedy Central is great value, and Jon Stewart is ‘da man’, and that Colbert’s not bad either.
But where’s Mr Ed Snidely and his wet lettuce?
Did he amuse? Scintillate? Get the juices flowing?
Or did he just dribble into a hankey as usual? I’m seriously disappointed in him, I’ll tell you. He just cannot keep it up anymore. Those insults are getting more flaccid by the day!
No bloody staying power, that’s his problem.
“Boring”! What do you call that? A Clayton’s insult when you cannot lie, (without being caught out), cannot make snide accusations (without being caught out), so you have to fall back on “boring”.
Jesuuuus, that’s funny!
So, the end of a Friday night, and two sporting non-events in a row. First the cricket, and now the promised Flogging in the Blogging here has fizzled. Better luck next week, sports fans.
in the meantime, watch that Obama surge build and build until Tuesday and beyond.
ESJ-I did surprise a few people by going. There weren’t many other balding 40 year olds there. I love the Arcade Fire and would not have missed them for the world. I bought a Rage Against The Machine T-shirt with their name and a photo of five nuns carrying shotguns on the front. I decided to wear it home to annoy the wife. Unfortunately, my mother-in-law was still at my home babysitting when I walked in. This was especially bad as she’s a devout Catholic, whose sister is a nun and who’s cousin was Archbishop of Adelaide. I beat a hasty retreat to change the T shirt but I’m not sure I got away with it.
But wait, could it still be on??
Ron, if you are referring to the stoush between Ed St J and K Removals, the way that I see it is that one showed up and the other didn’t!
He’s gone to dream of Bolshevik beauties battering him with books.
Ron @ 663,
Nah, have a look at 665, it has gotta be KR, the Foghorn Leghorn of PB.
Centre ,
a few jabs from me and ESJ alias pompous toff scurried back to his rodents closet in humiliation
its become regular
Centre, to backtrack a little: whatever it is you’re planning on doing that promises to put money into my pocket has my approval.
669
Centre
nah centre, Snidely just does not stoke my fire with his wet lettuce attacks.
That crumpled little husk? Calling me ‘boring’?
And you want EXCITEMENT from that?
Holy Sheet Batman, you gotta be kidding!
673
William Bowe
Ah, Bill Bowe Bagman, you’ve arrived and in venal mood! LOL
well if its a Howard rodent promise…you’ll be waiting
and rodent howard has planted some mini rodents here
ask for cash up front
666
jaundiced view
Hey cheer up JV!
You at least get the sign of the beast tattooed inside your eyelids for daring to insult the blogosphere with your petty needs! LOL
Two men enter.
One man leaves.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hQC3nkftrk
Robert Boland you mention the mini rodent possibly dreaming ?
I thought their brains only have two functions
eating and ….poring out dribble
670
Robert Bollard
Hahaha, I just got that reference! Bewdiful!
actually kr i would award it to esj-only on points mind you!
ps though ive been known to talk out of my orifice before
pps william did i cross the line with my strap-on comment?
KR , to bring you up todate
I’ve come onto the thread and there was ESJ pompous toff lurking in the background
He tried his now boring jabs which i returned fire and after a 1/2 hour he could not handle it and scurried back to his mini rodents nest
His supporters here are still getting over his humiliation
William I would have loved to. There are so many different opinions as to the outcome of the US elections. Some like Hillybilly, some Obama, and others McCain.
I thought that by putting our money where our mouth is, with you being the recipient, therefore not conducting anything illegal, it could have been a good way to match opinions and donate to this site at the same time.
I won’t have the time to check all the bets being requested, but if somebody else would like to, I would be happy to supply the prices.
Centre you have no idea of odds in what is a 2 horse race
based on the last odds you offered
Did Mr Snidely try an allusion to Star Wars tonight?
Oh my, he was trying hard, wasn’t he? So he says:
“Hopefully balance in the force has been restored and the midiclorian count is back to normal!”
For those not accquainted with this marvellous tale:
Midi-chlorians (also spelled “midi-clorians” or “midichlorians”) are a microorganism in the fictional Star Wars galaxy, first mentioned in the prequel trilogy. They are microscopic life-forms that reside within the cells of almost all living things and communicate with the Force. Midi-chlorians compose a collective consciousness and intelligence, forming links between everything living and the Force. They are symbionts with all other living things; that is, without them, life could not exist. The Jedi have learned how to listen to and coordinate the midi-chlorians. If they quiet their minds, they can hear the midi-chlorians speaking to them, telling them the will of the Force. In order to be a Jedi or a Sith, one must have a high concentration of midi-chlorians in one’s cells.
…I’ll leave it your own imaginations just what deep and meaningful thing Snidely was trying to convey, but I wouldn’t waste too much time on it!
KR- Actually 666 is NOT the number of the beast. Oxford researchers found out 2 years ago that it’s really 616. Evidently there was a typo or something. But if we pretend the number of the beast is 666, what is 668?
Well put your money where your moth is knowall knownothing wannabee.
682
Ron
He’s all yours Ron, I am soooooooooo over the tiresome little twerp!
There I was doing a Bolte and I thought I heard some high pitched barking, it was old yeller my favourite maltese and my feisty pekinese Ron.
In the words of Paul Keating – the dogs are barking but the caravan moves.
Clearly you two have shown your mettle – when confronted you cower and when you think I am out of sight you go for the sneak attacks.
I think the PB community can see who is who in this little arena!
Good night – bring on Super Duper Tuesday!!!
So KR is Centre a microorganism
oh I meant is pompous toff a microorganism after all
like is he really alive
686
Diogenes
Crikey, you have some obscure numerology tucked away! First it was Mayo with his 20yr assasination cycles, and now you tell me it’s not 666!
I need to sit down (oh, I am sitting down, I mean stand up…or something), the shock is making me dizzy!
Here is the true story with ESJ as Henrey Hawk, KR as Foghorn Leghorn, davidoff as the strait laced father hawk and Ron as the cowardly dog.
Enjoy and goodnight.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCb9lh3nVd0
Better still why don’t you put up the prices Ron?
No, it’s the “dogs are barking but the caravan moves on”!
Sheeesh, get something right for once.
oh mini rodent , come out of your closet and be humiliated like a real rodent
as the blogosphere can see you lurk and scurry with your precious little tootsies
Diogenes @ 686 – Are you referring to the year 668, the year the Shilla Dynasty of Korea made Mahayana Buddhism its official religion?
well GG , what do a howard ….cut and run
I’m still here…cowards leave
Oh, I really, really like this bit:
“Clearly you two have shown your mettle – when confronted you cower and when you think I am out of sight you go for the sneak attacks.”
I’ve got three words for Snidely:
“paedophile”
“plagairist”
“boring”
…the master of lying, and innuendo and gratuitous attacks reckons I use “sneak attacks”.
Love it! I just love it!
687
Centre Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 11:50 pm
Well put your money where your moth is knowall knownothing wannabee.
694
Centre Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 11:54 pm
Better still why don’t you put up the prices Ron?
Which is it
The 616 story is quite important. The meaning of 666 has been debated for millenia and is thought to identify the Antichrist. Nero is the most commonly mentioned name (Nero in Greek looks like 666 or something). More importantly, Muhammed is the other person it was meant to refer to (his name in Greek adds up to 666 using some weird nomenclature). Now wacky fundies who thought Muhammed was the devil because of the 666 thing have had to find another way to link 616 to Muhammed unsuccessfully.
And 668 is the Neighbour of the Beast…
By the way, I think Centre’s idea for a pretend “book” would be a fun way to donate to a worthy cause. It isn’t illegal because no money changes hands between any punter and a bookmaker. The “bets” merely become amounts we agree to donate. No law broken there that I can see.
For a second opinion, perhaps we could ask Federal Police Commissioner Keelty his considered view of the law on the area. He’s fairly free with his opinions.
but Kelty does not want any public criticism
Thanks Jaundiced V.
The way it could work is that the losers only pay (pay William of course). Maybe you would like to keep a record of the bets? As I said I would be more than happy to update the prices.
jaundiced view
as a donation Centre’s idea is fine if the odds are pretend and no dividends can be gained by ANY donee
He says “he cann’t keep the record because his wife will divorce him”
am happy to keep a record
and set pretend odds
Diogenes 701 – and your earlier post about this was 686, the neighbour’s 668 re-arranged. Could there be some significance in this?
All this talk about antichrists and neighbours of the beast makes me think we may be reading too many Romney and Huckabee speeches.
Ron these are the prices:
- Clinton 1/1
- McCain 7/4
- Obama 7/2
- Romney 20/1
- Huckabee 100/1
- any other 100/1.
You can be the first to make a bet? Then I would like to know what your prices would be?
705 Go for it Ron – I’m ready to have $20 on Obama to win the big one at 4/1. Will you lay it?
Lots of money spent without much perception change for candidates.
http://news.yahoo.com/page/election-2008-political-pulse-qualities
jaundiced view ,
if this is fun then lets assume I lay it
and you win at 4/1 odds ….do you get anything
and if you lose at 4/1 odds…what does William get
if we’re going to have a fair dinkum donation lets all be sure we’re talking the same lingo
$10 on clinton if its mcccain v clinton
$10 on mccain if its obama v clinton
william will lodge when not so pieeyed
C’mon Ron, a two horse race, so I can have 5/1 for McCain right.
REMEMBER. If your book shows a liability for the eventual winner, you must pay William!
Are you sure you know what I am talking about???
711
oops meant obama v maccain
ps william once again i ask who is your tip?
Ron, you had better read my 582 post, very, very, slowly. Mate you don’t have a clue???
Centre you sure know how to ruin a good thing with ridiculous 5/1 odds for McCain
YOU offer 5/1 odds for McCain
jaunice…waiting for your thoughts
Backtracking here…
Centre, whatever is going on has my vague interest, but I can’t tell what’s going on. Is there a post where it is explained in any sort of detail?
That’s right Ron – winners just get the honour and the glory – we can have an honour roll of winners. Llosers donate their bet amount to William – eg. in my case it will be $20 if Obama loses. I think the bets should be placed before Tuesday and only one bet per person. You have to pick from the current crop.
There will be a disincentive to “bet” too big because the “bet” will be the promised donation if one loses. But the gamest mock “punter” will top the honour board with the biggest mock return on paper.
Ahhh… post 582. Off to check it out.
jaundiced view …your understanding is fine by me
Centre’s idea is he actually becomes the bookie and he pays out on winning bets to William which is not a donation
Ron, no, 7/4 McCain with my prices. If you think it is a two horse race, I am seriously interested in your prices.
I am waiting!!!
No Ron, all of the world can see what I said at 582!
If jv’s interpretation is correct and William confirms his acquiescence, I’ll take $20 on Obama at 7/2 with a $10 kicker on Bloomberg at 100/1. I’ll check back in the morning to see if it’s a goer.
Ron – Yes, that’s OK – the only difference is you will need to use Centre’s odds if he is to pay William for those mock “bets” that win against him.
I think he just wants to know, as an aside, what you think the odds should be given your opinion on who will win
Your guess is as good as mine, Gusface.
Regarding the 666 thing, I have some proof. I remember being amused many years ago by a poster for a TISM recording entitled “668 the neighbour of the beast”. My brother-in-law, who like many Chinese is supersticious about lucky numbers, showed off the number plate of his new car. The numbers on it were 668. Said brother-in-law lived next to an elderly Greek man named Nick.
Regarding the on-going stoush some people here are having with ESJ. Am I correct in believing that ESJ is the son of the MP that had a falling out with Gorton? If so he’s a descendant of the St John who caused trouble for King Charles over ship money. That’s something to be proud of. But he wasn’t one of the glorious regicides – didn’t have the bottle for that.
Anyway, regarding Eddy boy’s clear fascination with being beaten up by Beautiful Bolsheviks, I have to add an extra line to Lenin’s dictum. He sxaid that when the time comes to hand the capitalists they’ll be lining up to sell us the rope. He should have added that they’ll die with a rictus of passionate completion on their face. A win win all around I would have thought.
That should read “hang the capitalists” though they’re probably fond of hand jobs as well.
I guess people can have more than one bet, ah Centre? Shouldn’t cause any problems.
You’d better hope Diogenes doesn’t get Bloomberg up for your sake. You might have to do a bit of mock “laying off”!
You said you as the bookie would pay out on winning bets to William at the wager multiplied by the odds
and you as the bookie expected the punter to pay William the wager value if its a losing bet
BUT jaundiced view said no money changed hands on a winning bet but the punter got the glory whereas the punter paid William his wager value on a losing bet
So what I said was correct in #719…you did not read it carefully
I think jaundiced view is more appropriate method as a fun donation because
Your blog 712 specifically says 5/1 odds for McCain..novice odds that I doubt you would honor
and you won’t get 115% book on 5/1 McCain
Ron – on Centre’s odds board, reproduced below, and on his proposal, if someone has a bet on Obama and wins, then Centre says he will donate the amount “bet” times 7/2, which is x 3 1/2 – so a $10 mock ‘bet’ winning would result in a $35 donation by Centre. Of course, if the mock ‘bet’ loses, the losing ‘punter’ donates the value of the bet, or $10.
725
Robert Bollard
Nah, Snidely just plagairised the name from some dead pollywaffle ‘coz he couldn’t invent one for himself.
I like the “rictus of passionate completion”, it reminds me of the rockstar, the doorknob and the uproar!
Rt. Hon. bilbo of PB
just donated 20 smackers on my @711 (i put my monet where my orifice is)
from your @724 i presume you are going for hilary
adam will be pleased
Jaundiced V,
Do me a favour, just ignore Ron for the time being. As I have said in my relevant posts, if I accept a bet, I will make a post confirming such. You can bet as often as you like, even upto the election in November. And of course betting limits would apply.
However I can’t spend practically every night checking for bets. If you would like to keep track of all bets offered and accepted, then I am happy to frame the prices.
The only proviso is that I reserve the right to be free of any liability that the book may (not that it should) incur.:)
Centre – I presume that after the general election you will look at the overall mock ‘book’ and do a tally of all ‘bets’ to arrive at your total winning or losing position to calculate your donation, if any?
Do you want to keep the “book” open after Tuesday?
Let’s look at it fresh tomorrow.
your last line is a killer
you want your Bookie cake and eat
me thinks you’ve never seen what a bookie looks like
Centre- We crossed posts there – OK that answers the questions. I might need a hand to keep a record of all the bets though as I am away a fair bit. Will start off though – Diogenes and myself so far!
is he going to honor his specific McCain 5/1 odds in his 712 blog
or was that a non core promise
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 17,000 non-farm jobs in January, the first time in nearly 4-1/2 years that U.S. payrolls shrank as fading construction and manufacturing sectors reflected the economy’s waning momentum.
…eeeeeeek! And the crunchers were looking for +70k jobs
Mr Market ain’t gunna be overly pleased, and futures are tanking atm
OY JV
cant you see that @732 i donated 20 smackers as per my bet @711
please include me in record
(all bets should be donations-then centre has a true “BOOK”)
739 (all bets should be donations-then centre has a true “BOOK”)
And William has true donation.
Mock bet/donation pledges so far “held’ by Centre:
Diogenes – $20 Obama 7/2; $10 Bloomberg 100/1
JV – $20 Obama 7/2
KR , you expect a Dow fall on the job losses?
Sorry Gusface – updated now:
Mock bet/donation pledges so far “held’ by Centre:
1Gusface – $10 Clinton 1/1; $10 McCain 7/4
Diogenes – $20 Obama 7/2; $10 Bloomberg 100/1
JV – $20 Obama 7/2
jeez JV
i think i will type slower so you get my msg
ps have you put up or are merely pissing in the wind?
From looking at it, I see three potential issues.
1. Centre is a big loser money wise (but that is for him to determine, not me)
2. This is a blog, where people don’t need registered accounts. By the end of the year, many may be gone, or changed names, or moved on in some way. Hell, by then William might have decided he has lost enough of his hairline and close comments as Bryan did last year. Conditions and various factors change, whereas when betting with a bookie they don’t – the contract is you have paid the money and get it back plus more if you win, don’t if you lose.
3. It is an honour thing, and when there is no contract things can only turn messy when people don’t pay up. Which creates problems in itself, especially given I imagine Centre will feel obliged to pay all the money promised – how can that be fair?
I would tentatively suggest that rather than do this, we set up an unofficial not-for-money tipping comp here, and aside to this people can publicly state how much they put in with a registered bookmaker (ie sportingbet), and how much they would be willing to donate of any winnings (for example, put $20 on Obama and announce all profit will go to PB.) That way you are bound in the similar ‘honour’ way, but the potential for injustice on others isn’t there.
I’m all for donating money when William says he is short – and have in the past – but this seems like a messy way to do it, especially given the payout would be in ten months from now. It might be a bit different if this was a bet on an election to be held next week, then again it still has the same murky waters.
Still, I could be in the minority, so sleep on it and see how it looks in the morning.
742
Ron
Not if Ben and his helicopter fly in again this morning with another 100B to ‘ease’ the pain!
Holy mother of christ, it’s something to behold!
Futures just slipped down the stairs after being well up, but look, the daily picture is mostly noise and signifies little. In the longer term, it’s going to get much uglier, and that’s looking more and more certain from all useful indicators.
This is just another reminder of what happens when you let cowboys run your country into the dirt.
Steve and Gusface – I guess so, but the way it is now, ‘punters’, if they ‘win’ their bet, get the thrill of winning the option of not having to donate. I’m sure many still will donate, after they have basked in their success loudly here. I will if I am so lucky. The honour of being on the success board will induce many to donate more I’m sure. We can come up with a prestigious name for the honour board of those who got it right – all of that.
The other point is, if its all donated up front, all the ‘bets’ would probably be similar.
Max – Yes, I think sleeping on it is a good idea at this hour.
Night all
745
Max
Yeah, agree Max.
I just cough up when I have a win and so I never feel bad about chewing William’s bandwidth!
Hey, I wonder if Snidely ever ‘contributes’? (Apart from the snide insults, that is! LOL)
Ron
Futures just went red, and it has that ‘fugly’ feel to it after being all up on the usual takeover crap.
I’ll stick with it for a bit.
jv
sorry for 744-2 much napoleon brandy (plus losing job hasnt helped)-*sigh* my albatross for putting my head above the parapet i suppose but freedom to express yourself and allow others too as well is worth more than materialistic gain.
worth noting again that Rt. Hon. Bilbo of PB deserves a donation REGARDLESS of the reason (but it is fun to place a phantom bet)
745
Max
you are right
which is why I favored Jaundice #717 suggestion
but Centre went off the deep end at that idea
but #717 is the most practicable
If you read Centre at 582 and Jaundice at 730 implys an unoffical Bookie with
all losing punters paying William and
all winning bets to be paid by Centre to William (with no offsewt to Centre)
Do not believe Centre understands his idea and a bookies book
Oooh, some ugly stuff:
The latest clutch of worries included a $2.3 billion loss for bond insurer MBIA Inc. (MBI) for its exposure to subprime mortgage assets. There also is market speculation that ratings agencies are close to issuing new downgrades for some insurers that would block them from insuring new municipal and corporate issuance and imperil those markets.
And Standard & Poor’s on Wednesday forecast a widening array of financial institutions would ultimately face mortgage-securities losses totaling more than $265 billion. The ratings agency also downgraded or warned it might downgrade more than 8,000 mortgage investments.
“There is just a lot of ‘headline risk,’ a lot of bad news in the market,” said Tom di Galoma, head of Treasurys trading at Jefferies & Co.
….’bad news’? Did he say? Ha! That’s a friggin’ understatement!!!!
Inflation is beginning to take off in both China and the US as well as here. Can’t see how pouring all these billions of dollars into stabilising the financial markets is going to improve the longterm outlook. Looks like we got rid of the Liberals here with their inflationary attitude just in time.
The worrying thing is we have heard nothing from the US candidates about what they propose to do to stop inflation running away.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/01/business/worldbusiness/01inflate.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
KR , there have been rumours the bond insures may be the REAL bad ’sleeper’
because their ratings have been based on the sub prime lenders ratings
as the sub prime’s go down…there will be a lag and the bond insurers may follow
…ouch with a capital
did you follow my 752 blog mate …to keep it a simplef un donation
754
steve
It’s too late, mate. Way, way too late.
Of course not having an economy run on debt and borrowing the savings of foreigners would have been sensible, but it’s too late now. The dragon is no longer sleeping, and it’s got a very nasty streak, and it’s commin’ this way too.
Not a happy thought, but there you go, credit wasn’t meant to be easy! (As the man almost said!)
There goes Ben: $93 billion in 3 day Repo money.
That might pull up the horses of doom!
Anyway KR all we can do is batten down the hatches and I’d much prefer to go through trauma with Swan as Treasurer than Costello.
steve it could get ugly
Our Current a/c deficit:
1990 nil
1996 when Keating lost with a recesion but coming out of : 183 billion
2007 when Howard left after a once in a lietime boom : 542 billion
Libs great economic managers ?
we will oon or later pay for this debt Steve
758
steve
yep, at least they make some effort to hold down government spending, although I’d be happier not see those billions poured out in tax cuts, quite frankly. But if that was the price to pay for getting rid of the dessicated little coconut, then so be it.
We are in VERY interesting times!
May the force be with you! (As someone used to say)
KR
so who you plunging your hard earned on?
ron
the fun donation idea i totally agree with-also a donation/prediction “honour roll”
recording the ‘phantom bets’ sounds good
ps Centre is the real deal- believe you me he has “good form ” since april 07
and i dont think he actually was talking about holding any dosh -jsut “framing’ the market, thats all
They might have to resurrect the debt truck to coincide with the opening of Federal Parliament to impress upon people the legacy left by Costello.
yep , Rudd could not get away from the Lib myth of their great economic credentials and so could not on day 1 say its all of a sudden a mess and defer the 31 billion cuts into the never never
hope Howards day i election campaign day 1 bribe of 34 billion cuts which Rudd HAD to almost match with 31 bill does not become his albatross
There she goes, pulling up, for the morning glory of all that dosh getting splashed around Wall Street and every little spiv’s margin accounts. Yippeeeee! They are seeing green!
Until the arvo probably, when they all get back from a liquid lunch and start sh!tting bricks about what it all really means. They’ve got attention spans measured as a fraction of the lifespan of a midichlorian.
761
gusface
On US primaries?
I told everyone ages ago: Obama, Huck and McCain
I win if McCain gets up and I smile if Obama gets up, and if Huck ever got near the Whitehouse I’d move to a remote location with lots of ammunition!
(Hillary was such short odds she wasn’t worth punting on and Obama was,is, and still is attractive.)
Gusface , mate in his blog 582 and Jaundice’s 730 , they are talking about Centre paying out winning bets to William
(there is no offset because they say all losing bets ALSO get paid to William)
Thats what their blogs say
MY SUGGESTION
1/ blogers place a phantom bet at phantom odds on a US Pres. candidate
(via bloging it here)
2/ IF their phantom bet is a winner (ie.they select the US Pres Winner)
No donation is made to William
BUT they are awarded a “Rodent” award duly numbered in numerical order
with the number 1 “Rodent” award going to the biggest phantom bet winner
…to calculate you multiply the phantom odds by the phantom stake
to see who in phantom terms won the most phantom dolars
3/ ALL phantom losing bets are donated to William in real money
4/ The daily phantom odds can be Centrebets official odds
Sorry kr
i meant as per the “‘fun donation”
is Obama really a chance or has been suggested would he better after a bit of maturing (not him-more the usa electorate)
as i see it Hilary represents the transitional phase that the usa must go through to bring about the next stage viz the ‘idealism’ of obama,implict in this is the idea that the”neocons’ are wounded ,and like the tiger,are more dangerous.
hence the need for gradual change back to “normality’ before attempting the 2nd “camelot’ ala JFK
Ah, never bet against the Fed, as they say! LOL
Especially when they are flying over and dropping it out of helicopters.
Which reminds me of the story of the Blackhawks in Baghdad:
Money also disappeared in truckloads and by helicopter. The CPA reportedly distributed funds to contractors in bags off the back of a truck. In one notorious incident in April 2004, $1.5 billion in cash that had just been delivered by three Blackhawk helicopters was handed over to a courier in Erbil, in the Kurdish region, never to be seen again. Afterwards, no one was able to recall the courier’s name or provide a good description of him.
…and that was the tip of the iceberg!
Good ride, and good night, bludgers!
Gusface , your comments on 766 ?
Gus, Obama’s still a chance and a better one than the odds I’ve got!
As for the ‘neocons’, they are a shadow of their former selves, mostly having slunk off to cushy jobs in academia or any think tank that will have them (or like Wolfowitz, being a d!ck at the World Bank). They are spent, discredited, and desperate to hang onto any semblance of credibility they can salvage.
Huckelberry’s got Norm Podhoretz to tell him about Israel and how they love the Rapture (or whatever insane notion he’s got in his head today), and they’ve generally all wandered off to the fringes again, from whence they came.
Nup, Obama could do it now, he just has to hold enough delegates on Tuesday to stay viable for the remaining half of the country and try to bag it, delegate it by delegate. He’s a damn sight better bet than that ghoul Giuliani was, for example.
Yaaaaaaaaaaaawn.
ron
i agree and think all of us are talking at cross purposes-but to the same end
1.ive thrown in 20 smackers as per @711
2.hopefully william/jv /whoever records ‘fun donations’ as per ‘phantom bets’
3.william recieves donation regardless
4.winner/hero/heroine/whatever is whoever william determines “layed off” the best bet/s
5.we all laugh at each others incompetence/blind faith
ps william can determine odds by whatever means nesecarry
pps just love the idea of the “rodent’ award :0
yep , can you believe Obama at attractive 7/2 listed on this blog for Pres
Just against Hillary he’s gotta be 6/4
shows they’re holding a bundle on Hillary
Gusface, thx re 771
are you suggesting in your point 3/ to alter my 766 point 2/ to have winning phantom bets also to be donations to William (as well as losing phantom bets ?)
am happy either way…just wish to clarify
cheers ron
yep all “fun donations’ form the basis of ‘phantom bets” regardless of win/lose
william then determines winner based on his “book”
that way the Rt. Hon. Bilbo of PB recieves valuable donations and we all can beat our chests how good we were/how we were ripped off
ive stumped an orange roughie to get the ball rolling
MoveOn releases the result of a poll of members as to endorsing a Democratic candidate, result 70% to Obama:
“With hundreds of thousands of ballots cast across the country, for the first time in MoveOn’s history, we’ve voted together to endorse a presidential candidate in the primary. That candidate is Barack Obama.
Something big is clearly happening. A few weeks ago, MoveOn members we surveyed were split. But with John Edwards bowing out, progressives are coming together. Obama won over 70% of the vote yesterday, and he’s moving up in polls nationwide.”
Rasmussen has Obama narrowing in California, now 40% to Hillary 43%.
steve @ 754
Inflation is beginning to take off in both China and the US as well as here. Can’t see how pouring all these billions of dollars into stabilising the financial markets is going to improve the longterm outlook.
Yes, it does look like stagflation is looming in the US, if it hasn’t already arrived. Back in the 1970s when faced with this situation, then Fed Reserve chief, Paul Volcker decided to attack the inflation side by driving up interest rates. OTOH, in th early 1990s the Japanese did what Bernanke is doing, attacked the deflation aspect by lowering rates. It hasn’t been a roaring success, in fact the last 18 years have been a disaster for the Japanese.
But Bernanke may not have a choice, In the 1970s Americans had much less personal debt, as did their country. Drive up rates to 20%, as Volcker did, and a lot of them would be destitute in no time flat (as would a lot of us if this happened here).
We live in interesting times.
McCain considered switching to Democrats in 2001, from the Carpetbagger report:
http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/14433.html#more-14433
Centre-
are you hoping for a divorce?
What we have here folks is a Classical Narrowing type situation.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104095/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx
Cbet latest
President – WINNER
CLINTON, Hillary 2.40
OBAMA, Barack 3.05
MCCAIN, John 3.10
Remember, in America money doesn’t talk, it cusses.
re post 745,
Max you are absolutely right. Holding a book is going to be impractical for all the reasons you have suggested. Especially given that I will not be able to keep track of all bets offered or accepted.
My liability,the money that I as the bookmaker would have payed William would be zero or very minimal. This fact will be illustrated in the following example:
1. Clinton $50 @ 1/1 for Adam (accepted).
2. Obama $20 @ 7/2 for Jaundiced V (accepted).
3. McCain $40 @ 7/4 for Ed St J (accepted).
4. Bloomberg $10 @ 100/1 Diogenes (rejected).
5. Bloomberg $1 @ 100/1 Diogenes (accepted).
Total bets accepted = 4. Total Hold = $111.
Outcome Example: Clinton wins Presidency;
JV loses $20 pays William, ESJ loses $40 pays William, Diogenes loses $1 pays William.
The bookie wins $11 on the book therefore does not pay William. The bookie only pays William if he incurrs a loss on the book for the winning outcome. (All losers pay). As all pole bludgers can see, in this case the bookie wins regardless who wins the presidency.
Being so skilled in the art of bookmaking, I reckon I would win regardless of the result. So says Centre.
My post at 590.
“That’s if the bookie had shown a liability of course”
Ron’s post at 752.
“all winning bets to be paid by Centre to William”
There have been some commenters who have asked for an apology from other commenters.
Ron, you owe me an apology.
778
MayoFeral
That’s dead right Mayo, and it’s an interesting conundrum for new boy Ben to be faced with: Mount Olympus levels of debt, rising inflation, and siezed up credit markets.
Volker has already commented recently, and very bluntly: “The Fed has lost control”.
Ouch!
But he’s right, whacking yet another dose of vodka into the punch is not going to stave off the hangover that’s coming, even if it manages to keep the party going for a wee bit longer.
Stagflation looks like a very short odds bet.
re 780 Jen,
More betting, more booze, more flirting?????
777
Basil Fawlty
(crikey, it’s been busy over here! It was 666 only late last night)
That’s getting pretty tight, and if the actual result comes in even anywhere near that, then one can safely assume that Clinton will not do a knock out on Tsunami Tuesday.
Obama lives to scrap it out in the other half of the states, and that’s going to be one interesting tussle.
Yep Kirribilli, looks as tho Obama is getting real traction now, and the news that MoveOn is now officially endorsing him must have been a blow for the HillBillys. MoveOn has over 3 million members and enormous fundraising ability, tapping into grassroots fundraising of lots of small to moderate donors, who can keep giving.
785
for sure!
best thing I ever did.
Gotta laugh over this one:
Take Ann Coulter. In an appearance on Fox News’ “Hannity and Colmes” that’s now been widely remarked upon, she told the two hosts that if McCain was nominated, and running against Sen. Hillary Clinton, she’d vote for Clinton.
…doesn’t that make you just holler with laughter!
Boy, the nutzoids are going bannanas over McCain!
Here are the MoveOn numbers:
MoveOn.org, the influential liberal organization founded during the impeachment of former President Bill Clinton, has never endorsed a presidential candidate. Until now. The Nation’s Ari Melber reports that Sen. Barack Obama received 70 percent of the votes of MoveOn members during a vote conducted online, topping the 66 percent supermajority the group required in order to deliver its endorsement.
The actual effect political endorsements generally have on races is by no means a settled question, but the MoveOn nod could mean a lot for Obama as we head into Super Tuesday. MoveOn claims to have 1.7 million members in the Super Tuesday states alone, including more than 500,000 members just in California. That’s about 10 percent of primary voters there. The group plans to start working on Obama’s behalf “immediately,” Melber says.
Is MoveOn like our GetUp?
791
Jen
yeah, sort of, but GetUp is supposedly ‘non-aligned’ and you could hardly claim that for MoveON
Well, it had to dragged out, eh? Finally the CLinton campaign people have used the ‘n” word for Obama!
No, not THAT “n” word, but ‘nazi’!
As in:
Feb 1st, 2008 | NEW YORK — Advisers to Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton Friday complained vehemently about an Obama campaign mailer that criticizes Clinton’s health plan, with one adviser likening the mailer to “Nazis marching through Skokie, Illinois.”
…so it’s pamphlet bombing time, and this campaign will go down into trenches to slug it out.
In my 582 post I explicitly said that all losing bets pay William. I gave the example of recording a bet of 30/10 on Obama for Glen.
I explained that if Obama loses, then Glen pays $10. If Obama wins, then the bookie pays $30.
The bookie pays $30 because that represents the state of his book, which in this case is a loss of $30.
Unfotunately Mr Knowall Knownothing Ron confuses everyone by claiming that I said that the bookie pays from his winnings.
Not only do you owe me an apology Ron but everyone else you have caused confusion.
But I wont hold my breath.
Tuesday will be d-day for the candidates. The latest from Betfair:
- Clinton 2.50
- McCain 3.10 (the big mover)
- Obama 4.40
BTW Jen, stop putting ideas into my head (only kidding).
centre-
if you are having ‘ideas’ you should ring Liberal HQ’s immediately.
They need all the help they can get.
GetUp not aligned? HA!
Although to be fair it is technically true… it hasn’t really decided whether it supports the Greens or Labor yet. It is an Internet recruited site. Anybody want to hazard at a guess of the left/right ratio of the politically active on the net these days? I’d say 80:20, so it isn’t a surprise that Getup is oh so slightly biased.
But I take your point, it isn’t formally for one party or another.
LA Times also breaks for The Kid. Every little helps before Tuesday.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-ed-dem3feb02,0,3530861.story
Centre at 795: Betfair, imho, are always off the matket pace, they were slow as wet weeks in our last big one.
The action seems to be at CBet.
President – WINNER
CLINTON, Hillary 2.50
MCCAIN, John 3.00
OBAMA, Barack 3.00
However, having said that, in the fullness of time, at the end of the day, the reality is: any price is a good price about a winner.
Centre @ 782 & Max – Reading through today’s posts – I agree about it being too hard to proceed the way we were looking at a “book” last night, full of Friday night enthusiasm and whatever else, over that period of time before November.
We can do what Max suggested – declarations of our real bets on the various agencies we take individually could be recorded and sorted at the end, with an Astute Political Punters’ Roll of Honour to be put up.
Winners, as Max suggests, to be expected to donate a proportion of their winnings to the support of this site, which is something like a religious tithe – quite appropriate for a US election.
Those who placed mock bets can place real ones instead and let us know.
To kick off, I am myself out there -for the record I have had $50 on Obama at $4.40 just now on Betfair. I undertake to donate to William 10% of my winnings (that is the standard biblical tithe rate isn’t it?) of approx $175 = $17.50.
I will no doubt be having more bets along these lines.
Enemy C – That $3 on CBet about Barack doesn’t look so good against Betfair’s $4.40 at present
Bill seems to attract some ‘interesting’ friends. From Newsweek:
True, jaundiced view, at 801. By “action” I meant “what’s actually happenin’”, not where one can get the best value, but I didn’t make that clear. It’s always a good move to ping ambiguity. Thanks.
What I’m sayin’, and have for my last dozen or so comments, is that The Kid is comin’ home like a runaway train. Momentum is surging now that formerly switched-off American voters are getting an eye and earful of Obama on the box and the web. They want to see and hear more. The political zeitgeist is crackling. Just a little taste of Obama doesn’t do it for those who came in late anymore. They want the Motherload. And they want it now.
Obama’s handlers have positioned The Kid, and timed his run like Group One spin-doctorin’ George Moores. Like jockey George, those who can deliver a “deft touch” at the business end of a race always have an advantage.
24 hrs later. You got to admit that the debate between Hillary and Barrack last night was a class act in terms of appearance, presentation and content. It made the Reps debate looks like a Hollywood B-grade movie.
I think Barrack made a tactical mistake for not ruling out on the “Dream Team” when asked. People will think that they might get Barrack as well if they vote for Hillary. So it’s OK to vote for Hillary, we get Barrack as the VP now and maybe as POTUS later.
The interesting thing is, you can just about see a Clinton-Obama ticket at this stage… but I don’t think anyone can see an Obama-Clinton ticket – not least because she would be 68 when her turn came up again. But I digress.
It’s astonishing to see the weight of support being thrown to Obama now – I would suggest at a tentative guess that out of all the endorsements in the past week, he would have picked up maybe 75% of them. Of course, we are yet to find out if he has peaked too early or too late – on the one hand, another week to kill off the remaining poll gap would have been useful, on the other steaming into a Super Tuesday of which the consensus is you are going to lose is useful, as it allows you to dismiss the results as ‘hey, better than we expected a month ago’ and continue the charge forward.
There was a very interesting article in the oz today – “at the gates of Castle Clinton” (in the Inquirer section.) In a way this metaphor is very accurate. This is one of the last chances the Democratic Party will have – ever – to stand up to the Clinton dynasty and say enough is enough. Either stand up and take action now, or accept reality and ensure you have nothing to fight for over the next eight years, at which point there will be undoubtedly more ‘winds of change’ after a prolonged period of total Democratic control. Obviously I am making a lot of assumptions there, but you catch my drift.
Also look at it this way – the two Clinton’s can undoubtedly do a tremendous amount of good in the public over the next eight years if they lose. Money, power, name recognition, popularity, a genuine desire to help the poor and disadvantaged… there are few people out there who don’t appreciate their work, or their service to the world, it’s just we don’t want them in power again. If Obama loses, he will return to the Senate for another term or two, before refocussing on another run, or maybe return to teach. No disputing that will be a good thing, but he can’t have nearly the impact the two Clinton’s could if they started using their name for good, once they realise their time in power is finally well and truly at an end. Better result for everyone all around.
Super Tuesday can’t come soon enough.
802
MayoFeral
Yeah, old Bill, eh? What a trooper he is! Did you catch that story about his dealings in Kazahkstan and his ‘fee for services’ rendered in the form of tens of millions donated to his Clinton fund?
Talk about a mover and shaker (or shake-down artiste!).
He’s got so much form that the Repuglies are going to wet themselves dragging every converstion, every donation, every deal and every back he’s slapped in the last 7 years that you can hear them near busting with excitement at the prospect of having Hillary as the putative target.
And anyone who thinks Obama has ‘history’ like Bill’s is NOT on the planet.
Digging into info from trends.google.com over the last month, Obama is almost double the either McCain or Clinton. I wasn’t surprised at Obama surpassing McCain, but I was surprised at the level he is pulling ahead on the Clinton brand.
The LA Times concludes it’s ringing endorsement of Obama:
In the language of metaphor, Clinton is an essay, solid and reasoned; Obama is a poem, lyric and filled with possibility. Clinton would be a valuable and competent executive, but Obama matches her in substance and adds something that the nation has been missing far too long — a sense of aspiration.
…after concluding that they are both excellent candidates, but Obama was always against Bush’s folly in Iraq and has a personal history that is not, how shall we say, ‘white bread’!
But that word, ‘aspiration’ is one we’ve all seen kicked around the political lexicon and abused right, and er, centre. My all time favourite, the ‘let them eat cake’ moment, when Dame Leonie Kramer ascribed Howard’s loss to, you guessed it…too much ‘aspiration’!
Dame Leonie Kramer: “Once you start aspiring you never stop”
(Thanks to that other Ann Coulter wannabe, Miranda Devine, for this exquisite gem of noblesse oblige!)
Now, enter Obama, the new master of aspiration!
oh dear, there’s apostrophe man again!
its endorsement
…will suffice!
807
davidoff
Thanks for that, a very interesting bit of google-ometry!
If you search on California for the last 30 days Clinton only gets even close in Santa Barbara (now, someone, why is that?)
Fascinating toy!
#810
It comes in handy when the fact on the table frame the debate.
It’s for Barrack’s interest that he gets it across, as the King crooned, “It’s Now or Never”.
Give the LA TImes their due, they’ve done a very good, and nuanced endorsement of McCain over his Repulican rivals, and points to his honourable features:
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-ed-gop3feb02,0,3919492.story
…Mitt and Hcuk don’t quite come off so well! LOL
Mayo @ 802
Everyone does it, PJK & ‘whatshisname’…
811
davidoff
Yeah, Obama might be ‘liberal wet dream’, but the facts are that he’s still well and truly in this race, and even though Clinton will most likely take the majority of delegates on Tuesday, he will still be close enough to keep her running until the convention.
It’s not the lay down misere that some people assumed.
@811
From the Los Angeles Times …
substitute by 811 reference for KR’s 815
David Brooks on Jim Lehrer’s News Hour said he’d had lots of emails from Republicans after the Democratic debate and they were basiclly saying that they were in trouble. And if the McCain/Romney debate is the standard, then they are seriously in trouble.
Hat off to Brooks, for a Republican he sure can tell it like is without rancour and insult. A true gentleman of scribbler’s giuld.
8 rules of Fight Club.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agi8PUmlAKU
Comment by ESJ deleted. Play the ball, please.
#820 – WB, about time. I was wondering whether this is a political debating forum or a boxing ring.
codger @ 814 – Sadly, true. But PJK is unlikely to be residing at the Lodge again and influencing the PM’s decisions.
That ‘narrowing’ between Clinton and Obama is seen best in graphical form:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/charts/?poll_id=191
…and curiously, they came closest together sometime around the 10th Jan (the date scale is hard to read on that graph), with only about 2% between them. It’s since moved out a bit.
This graph is updated daily especially for the pollbludgin’ tragics.
Ta Mayo
The turd way, rosary in hand, peace in Palestine, marches on, give or take 0 wmds and the odd dead scientist…the new napoleon?
http://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/node/5830
KR mentioned it before but here is the interview where Ann Coulter endorses Hillary.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQODlPrCEok
Ann Coulter endorses Hillary
Ann is a real piece….she must hate Hillary to give her the kiss of death endorsement
825
TurningWorm
Must have missed it, but thanks, I’ll get the bucket (just in case!) and try and watch her!
Eeeeeeeek, that woman is off her meds, and it’s plainly apparent that she’s barking, or perhaps more accurately, squeaking mad! (for indeed, Ann Coulter squeaks and shrieks!)
Aaaargh, what a mad, sad little thing! And to think, such a deranged she-whippet is the pin-up girl for the lunar right! Well that proves they’ve got no taste for a start. Just try and imagine even listening to that piercing shriek and watching those staring eyes as she foams at the mouth over every ‘conservative’ buzzword.
Cree-py!
have just caught up with the blogs tonight and find Centre trying to confuse non punting Blogers with his false figures to justify his errors
Now in #782 he wants to hold everyone’s money as a real Bookie which is what I thought and wqhich was not only inappropriate but went against being a Donation
Secondly anyone looking at his fake example to support his false argument can see a further single $50 bet on Clinton means the Bookie loses…he owes $39 to William…
and any further bets on Clinton in his example means a greater Bookie loss
owing by him to William.
The suggestion he could not lose is therefore proven false
ie. INSTEAD OF EACH OF US MAKING A DONATION TO WILLIAM , we would be relying on one person (the Bookie) to pay up
there’s an alternative…refer blog 766
addition to 3829 2nd paragraph after ‘money’
theoretically ie. on paper
Some blogers here have disagreed (often strongly) with my views and that is their right & I take no offfence at all…its the non faint hearted blogoshere
So I wish to set the record straight for those who want to take the trouble to check the ACTUAL figures quoted by Centre in #782 which are misleading
Do not take my word…check the figures independently yourselves
Centre has produced a notional Bookie profit of $11 and says as its a profit the Bookie pays WB zero. But he says IF the Bookie loses on the book he will pay WB
Well you’ll see from Centre’s own figures that ONE only single further bet of $50 on Clinton would mean the Bookie’s net loss is a max of $39 & the Bookie owes WB a max. of $39
Any further bets on Clinton without bets on the others only increases the Bookies loss and increases the Bookies liability to WB
Each winning Clinton bet even at tightened odds still creates an ACCUMULATING loss to the Bookie & a liability by the Bookie to WB
which is highly inappropriate for us all
I challenge Centre to dispute these specific figures.
Of course he won’t because the maths are correct
Instead Centre will attempt a red herring to camoflage his error or pretend this blog did not happen
The flaw in Centre’s idea was two fold
The bookie was exposed to a potential large liabiilty as per the above
RATHER than us making simple donations to WB with those who win having bragging rights on their phantom bets at phantom odds
I said previously that Centre was to pay WB on all winning bets without any offset to Centre which is true despite Centre’s assertions.
My statement was soundly based on the assumption the bookie can have a loss on the ‘book’ causing the bookie to owe the ‘book’ loss to WB
THIS CAN EASILY occur as I’ve demonstrated above
Having corrected the misrepresentation for those who wish to check the mathematics themselves , I move on to the more important issue of a donation to WB and pledge $50 as a donation
Whilst I’m having a phantom $50 bet on Obama at the phantom odds of 7/2
I will pay WB whether Obama wins or not
(7/2 are ridiculous odds by Centrebet but reflect bundles put on Hillary)
OMG, just had to watch that Ann Coulter vid, now I know what purgatory must be like. She would have to be the best example of why the Yanks must get those repugnant loonies away from the doomsday button. As KR said, creepy.
Ann Coulter’s eyes…..now where have I seen them before…..?
Here’s one for those who don’t think that what happens in the US has direct impact in Australia.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/300000-homeowners-at-risk-of-losing-properties/2008/02/02/1201801105522.html
McCain is F**ked. The far right conservatives want him to be FRC. The middle moderate conservatives want him to be MMC. The liberal left conservatives want him to be LLC. You cannot be all things to all people. You cannot please all the people at all times.
Is this a boxing ring turns betting shop?
Ron is the Britney Spears of Poll Bludger. The more he writes, the less coherent he becomes.
837 No, it’s a polling blog keen to see the blog put on a secure financial footing to ensure that it can continue with plenty more election cycles covered. I’m sure that any ideas good, bad or ugly will be canvassed until a workable solution becomes apparent. I’m sure that if the Finnigans have got good ideas they will be thrown into the mix and discussed along with the current ideas about increasing the flow of donations to this blog.
#839 – see #584
#582 – Centre – I also said that I will put my money where my keyboard is. I will donate $50 to WB if Hillary wins. $20 if Obama wins. WB gets my tears if McCain wins. Fair enough?
Finnigans, not sure about the boxing ring bit. I’ve always taken the attitude that a lively debate is a good debate.
Huffington Post sees a narrowing for Obama on Tuesday, but wonders if it is too late?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/02/obama-steadily-gaining-su_n_84571.html
Check out that graph for Connecticut. THAT’S what I call a narrowing!
Steve , you’ve expressed the sentinment the clearest.
The blog should be put on a reasonable financial footing so it can continue
My concern was not with Centre’s intentions but with the flawed execution of him actually being a Bookie on this site (or to be more accurate a 1/2 Bookie)
ie. liable for the total of notional winning bets less notional losing bets
my blog 832 explains the detail why Centre was wrong to claim minimal losses
WOULD be incurred by the ‘Bookie’ & why a Bookie is inappropriate
Therefore Centre’s idea belongs in the dust bin and we should endeavour to bounce around practical ideas tp make the Poll Bludgers site viable.
(which could involve bragging rights & varying “”class’s” of a ‘Rodent’ award)
A new batch of polls from the Votemaster. In it he tell how his weighting scheme works. This is the one that helped him accurately predict the last two elections.
Be sure to read his article on the visceral hatred of John McCain by the arch conservative radio announcers. Very eye opening.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
In fact I will post a link to it here.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8268.html
843 – Part of the reason for such a dramatic graph adjustment is there hadn’t been a poll there for months.
Even if Obama doesn’t win but gets close it is still going to be over, as most states are not winner takes all, so the delegates might be split fairly even. If come Thursday the delegate count is split is 1250 Clinton to 800 Obama, it will be game on and the race will go on. However, if the numbers are 1500 to 500, it will be all over red rover.
Over on the other side, McCain looks likely to wrap it up on Tuesday. But if Hucklebee does well in the south, it might still be on. Hucklebee will position himself as the king maker.
Frin Taegan Goddard.
Clinton, McCain Open Wider National Leads
The latest Gallup tracking poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton with a 7 point lead nationally over Sen. Barack Obama, 48% to 41%. This is up from just a three point lead yesterday.
On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain now holds a 20 point lead over Mitt Romney, 44% to 24%, “his largest lead since he assumed the front-runner position following the New Hampshire Republican primary.” Mike Huckabee trails at 16%.
———-
And a great “Quote of the Day”
“If you’ve got a Hillary and McCain race, you’ve got a third option: That’s the pistol on the bed table.”
– Pat Buchanan on MSNBC.
They seem to use smaller sample sizes than the Australian polling companies do. 350 voters to 800 voters seem to be the normal. This might be a consequence of “no call” laws.
Maine Republicans held their caucus was today. The BBC is reporting Mitt Romney has got 52% of the vote.
Blair , am surprised the National Poll has widened
I predicted Obama to get a 49% National vote on Super Tuesday and I’m not looking very good as was my prediction of a 50 delegate difference on Tuesday
However these are National not State primary Polls & as I feel is Obama has momentum particularly in the south & somewhat in the East I feel Obama will do well in those States….& end up close enough to Hillary to warrant continuing
My prediction – If obama keeps it within 100 delegates after Tuesday, he will win due to momentum from exceeding lowered expectations, and the fact that later states favour him more heavily. And he can keep it within 100 if he keeps his current momentum up – one more big endorsement, one more big speech, the oprah rally, this thing is so finely balanced anything could tip it.
Erytnicam ,
absolutely….whilst my 50 delegate shortfall prediction is looking silly now as the polls seemed to have surprisingly reversed , the 100 shortfall you mentioned or even 200 would be recoverable as I think there’s 1450 delegates up for grabs AFTER Super tuesday
I could be wrong but thought I saw that 1450 figure on CNN site a few weeks ago but cann’t find the story now.
Obama reckon is a good chance to win the Nominee as Ophra & Kennedy would have some credibility in Democrat ranks
From NBC’s Mark Murray
Ethel Kennedy back Obama
850 Ron: Try this site, it shows why Hillary is ahead nationally.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
850 Ron: “Obama has momentum”. Only in 3 states Hillary has 11 states.
#855
Well – not really. There are poll figures listed but what you really need to something that grinds down those numbers relative to the value in terms of delegates for the respective state and the value proposition that the resulting numbers generate for the respective parties.
The longer Hillary and Obama go at it, the more publicity they get. The better people get to know them.
thx Chris , gee its an excellent site with info i was unaware of
the state by state latest polls there are not good for Obama except in 3 Southern states….hmmm……..my 50 delegate shortfall has got sillier
maybe one should not predict on the heart
got go , enjoy your afternoon fellow spirits (…and of course the closet Rodents)
856 davidoff: Yes and fortunately the Democrats system is much fairer the Republicans.
but inspite of the Polls , i live inhope the delegate breakup by State district happens to be more favorable than the State Poll %’s
858 Ron Keep an eye on the Votemaster he provides excellent inside information. Even on the polls and delegates.
Here’s the Votemasters record for the 2006 election.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Info/track_record.html
Erytnicam-I’ve got a political question for you re your exam. I’ve been noticing McCain is getting a bit dithery and forgetful and might just be getting senile dementia. Reagan famously offered to take a dementia test before his second term. Can you tell the bludgers how you would investigate him. What treatment can you offer for dementia and how effective is it?
Ron,
I do NOT intend to substantially lower the levels of my intelligence to debate you!
The whole world can see EXACTLY what I wrote, and the whole world can see EXACTLY what an idiotic knowall knownothing wannabee neverbee moron you are!
Don’t EVER mention me again or read any of my comments again!
(Which part of that last line don’t you understand)!
Don’t EVER mention me again or read any of my comments again!
#864
Centre: don’t take this as anything personal, but – in your comments to Ron, you said:
and that was followed by the following question resummably directed at the very same person to whom you have made a request for the formal discontinuation of dialog:
(Which part of that last line don’t you understand)!
I was just wondering – are you expecting a reply? If Ron does reply it would seem to me that he is simply addressing a question and within that context would be free to open up points of argument. If he does not reply, should we assume that he is ignoring your request?
#864
Centre: don’t take this as anything personal, but – in your comments to Ron, you said:
and that was followed by the following question resummably directed at the very same person to whom you have made a request for the formal discontinuation of dialog:
I was just wondering – are you expecting a reply? If Ron does reply it would seem to me that he is simply addressing a question and within that context would be free to open up points of argument. If he does not reply, should we assume that he is ignoring your request?
Fellow poll bludgers, especially the ones with decent knowledge in betting. I request your assistance.
Please refer to my post of 782 where I gave an example of holding a bookmakers book.
The question that I ask is a) does the bookmaker record a profit of $11, or b) does the bookmaker actually record a loss of $39.
a) or b) ?
Decade of the dragon: “Who needs the US?”
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/decade-of-the-dragon/2008/02/02/1201801097277.html
“All of a sudden, the global economy has turned upside down. It used to be that the world’s prosperity relied on the health of the US economy — as the old saying goes: when the US sneezes, the world catches cold. But now it looks like the centre of gravity has shifted. Economic growth in developing nations was an astonishing 7% last year, more than twice the growth rate of the high-income countries. And this year, as the US teeters on the brink of recession, many emerging economies appear to be booming.
The Chinese in particular are confident that their economy will withstand a US recession. For the past several years, China’s economy has become much less reliant on exports to the United States and more focused on its own domestic demand as a source of growth. As the population becomes richer, it makes sense that China’s awesome manufacturing capability will shift focus from the 250 million American consumers towards the 1.3 billion local shoppers”
The US Presidential candidates may extol what a great country, how powerful the USA is, blah blah blah blah blah. The fact is that the US is on the decline just like the British Empire once was. That excellent article linked by KR at #609 – “The $1.4 Trillion Question: The Chinese are subsidizing the American way of life. Are we playing them for suckers—or are they playing us?” I think you don’t need to be Einstein to figure out who is the sucker here.
dividoff, It has all been said. It is there for the whole world to see. Therefore no further reply is necessary! People can make up their own minds.
#869
Well personally – I kind of feel that the whole idea of getting a bunch of reasonably opinionated and often well educated people to engage in betting as a means of qualifying the ‘best and brightest’ is in and off itself disingenuous.
863 – In terms of dementia the main one I’ve had to learn was Dementia triggered by Alzheimers (What Reagan had), in which case treatment is really symptomatic and trying to delay degeneration (ACh-esterase Inhibitors etc). Your looking for symptoms so in terms of diagnosis, so initially loss of short term memory, carelessness of appearance, deterioration of verbal ability and eventually unlearning of skills. If you have these sorts of things, you then try and eliminate other potential factors (tumors, adverse drug effects etc).
I’m not studying to be a dr, so i’m not really trained in diagnostics, but I would be surprised if McCain had Alzheimers.
davidoff, it is not a question of betting, it is a question of one being right and one being wrong. Maybe you would like to give me an answer for all of Australia to see.
a) $11 profit or b) $39 loss.
#872
Centre: I’m not interested in entering into a debate about your opinion versus Ron’s opinion because the subject doesn’t contribute anything. I have already provided options to William that would eliminate any hosting costs so from my point of view the philanthropically rationale is more bound around justification than reality. But if we dig into projections – I’m much more interested in opinion and argument surrounding a subject than the ability of someone to get lucky on an unqualified guess. For example – what are your projections for the post super tuesday delegate count and what is your rationale for you argument?
I think Hillary and McCain will be advancing into the final showdown.
William why don’t I have a leave a reply on my screen with the morgan thread?
871 erytnicam- Actually there is a 12% chance that a random 71yo male has dementia. The diagnosis of Alzheimer’s dementia is really one of exclusion after multi-infarct dementia, depression etc have been ruled out. It’s done on the basis of cognitive impairment on neuropsychological testing. One of the hallmarks is a deterioration in verbal fluency.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6fMqwRobuQ
Personally, I’m voting for Miss Teen South Carolina…
#874
Can you qualify this a bit? I agree that McCain heading into the showdown is al but done and dusted. But the more interesting subject is Obama versus Clinton. We all know that Hillary will be there – but the subject today is not *if* Hillary will be there – the real subject will be Hillary versus Barack. My projection is that Obama will exit Super-Tuesday with more than 836 aligned delegates. Whats you projection?
I hate it when people post info without links to the supporting data!
Diogenes, you are pretty good at mathematics, could you help me out with my 867 post please!
Precisely 875, Alzheimer’s is only ever confirmed in autopsy. And it’s not necessarily an either/or with regard to depression, treating both may be a necessity. And you can’t tell me you really see tell tale signs of dementia in McCain. I’d be more worried about the hundreds of other diseases that are likely to accompany someone of his age such as CVD, stroke, cancer etc
#877 Bugger – there she is in the video!
Sorry Centre, accidentally switched off comments on the Morgan thread – back on now.
Thanks WB.
Alabama polling at the end of January. This goes beyond ‘the narrowing’.
http://www.pollster.com/08-AL-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
btw, William I would like my 864 post respected, please.
Centre re your 867. I just got home. Your figures look spot-on to me, and reflect a 115% book, in which you control the size of the bets. Straightforward -no laying off or any of that complicating stuff. I can’t understand the confusion one or two seem to have in their minds about it.
Anyway, I’m not sure where we are with all that – are we keeping a record of PBer’s actual bets they declare or not, with the expectation that they donate a proportion af any winnings to William? (I posted my own real bet on Betfair of $50 on Barack @ 7/2 as a starter when I was on briefly yesterday)
Centre, your demands are beyond my powers to enforce. I might tell Ron to put a sock in it if I could understand what the argument was about.
875 – Diogenes – I just realized you were the one who asked the original question, when you obviously already now something on the topic…why?
Thanks JV, to keep it simple, you say a) $11 profit.
Please post back to confirm.
Diogenes @ 875
Ahem, early & often…
Mac, I think the doc may be onto something here; AL recently had a link to this paddock full of second opinions
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nqtL-P8kzo&eurl=http://bravenewfilms.org/blog/27350-john-mccain-is-dr-strangelove?utm_source=rgemail
886 – You mean you don’t superpowers William? You can’t enforce a “do not Read” demand?
Is Ralph Nader running again? If so i’d happily through away my vote! (not that im elligible)
875 Diogenes, that Miss Teen South Carolina sure makes a lotta sense to me, I reckon I could watch every speech she made in the House, she has such charisma and natural charms
codger- here is an even worse one re McCain. “The success will be fairly easy” becomes “very difficult”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioy90nF2anI
sorry erytnicam-I thought my defunct and useless background in neurophysiology was known. I wanted to see if you going to pass!
centre-your loss on the winning bets is $50 and you make $61 on losing bets hence a $11 profit.
Centre – I can confirm that – the answer is: a) $11
My “Betty and Jim Learn Maths” explanation of your example:
You are holding a total of $111 in bets. You pay Adam back his $50 stake plus $50 winnings (1/1), total $100, leaving $11 profit in your bag – with which you buy your wife a bunch of flowers for tolerating your recidivism
Thanks Diogenes & JV.
JV, have you checked Sportingbet, the odds are very similar to what I had. So you have backed Obama. I hope you are right, he would be great for uniting people and hopefully getting the planet back on track.
Ha, some of you guys took the ‘rabid shitzu’ test and actually watched Ann Coulter!
Before anyone else has to go through that, can I recommend the sea-sickness tablets and dark glasses…they may help with the nausea! (oh yeah, don’t forget the earplugs, ‘coz that hacksaw blade screech can damage your hearing!)
As for the billious rumblings from the collective gut of the loopy right in the US over McCain’s impending nomination, it strikes me that the Republican party is being dragged kicking and screaming into the harsh reality that their beloved Imperial Republican Reich is in tatters and that the Democrats will be in charge of what’s left of the Empire. They’ll also be changing course, and this freaks out the nutters and fruitloops who’ve hung everything on the Praetorian Guard’s banners of Neconservatism and Reaganomics, both now lying shredded and discredited.
Watching that “sack of antlers” (as one blogger so graphically described her) Ann Coulter, fulminate herself into cartoonish caricature, (narrated by that other champion of free thought, Rush Limbaugh), will be the blood sport of the left for the next few months until she lies spent, exhausted, and absurdly irrelevent.
That’s when the poor rabid shitzu must be humanely ‘put down’.
Jaundiced view ,
you were mislead by Centre.
He disengenuously asked you to check his #782 but not my reply on #832
You correctly said the Bookie made a $11 profit as Centre had said on #782
If you read my #832 I ACKNOWLEDGE the Bookie makes a $11 profit !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But my #832 blog then says if one single further bet is made of 450 on Clinton
(Centre’s example of the winner) then the Bookie LOSES $39 & owes WB $39
and that any further bets on Clinton only increases the Bookies liability to WB
I contended having a 1/2 bookie on this site accumulating a potential liability was inappropiate method to financially support William’s Blog
Centre has done a “Howardism”….leave out the other persons views
Blogers can read #832 & form their own views
The issue now is for us to come with $ ideas to support the Blog so it continues
bet is $50 not 450
868
The Finnigans
I find it amazing how few people actually realise what’s going on, and how they just assume it’s all “ignorant loathing lefties” being America haters! It’s like trying to hold more than one idea in your mind at once ie you can strongly disapprove of the direction America has taken and at the same time, actually see the positive, creative, and good things that exist in America.
But to the point of your post, yeah, the world’s largest economy is bloated on debt and addicted to foreign savings, and as the man once said: “what is unsustaibable must eventually come to an end”. Just when, and how suddenly, is the burning question.
The Chinese are getting creamed on their foreign reserves now that the US has dropped rates and the USD has all but disappeared down the S-bend, and their ’sterilization’ process of converting USD into local currency is literally wiping off billions in value. They are not going to stand for this forever, and will be gradually diverting their reserves elsewhere, but not so quickly as to panic the horses and see a stampede away from US assets.
I noticed they’ve bought a slab of Rio Tinto the other day, and this is exactly the sort of process we shall see a lot more of, as the ‘unsustainable’ meets the colossal tide of cash they have to invest, anywhere, but in the USA.
Indeed, interesting times.
Ron, irrespective of who’s right about this, you’re being a pain in the arse.
William ,
Centre is the pain in the arse for falsely alleging my maths are wrong
They are correct
He is trying to cover his ego
I’ll give you $50 right now if you think mathematically my 832 blog demonstrating Centre’s bookie flaw is wrong
If you do not want me to blog on this site…say so
#900
William
Irrespective of who is right or wrong, I would suggest that Ron is at least is more on topic.
Centre 2 895 – Haven’t been watching Sportingbet or CentreBet – I’ve been using Betfair.
It’s interesting that Sportingbet and CBet have Obama around 2/1 while people on Betfair are still prepared to lay 7/2, while Clinton and McCain are similar odds on both (Clinton better on Betfair).
The difference of course being that CBet and Sportingbet set their own market, whereas Betfair is an open clearing house for individuals to bet with each other. This to me is the advantage of Betfair, because overs are often available from mugs with an idiosyncratic assessment.
It seems to me that Obama is a better value bet than Clinton because if he wins the Dem nomination he has a better chance against McCain than she does on the polls.
Meanwhile the gap diminishes between Clinton and Obama. Plenty of support coming out for him – is Edwards next to come out ?
A couple articles from the SMH today for those who missed them (sorry if they were referred to earlier):
http://news.smh.com.au/obama-chases-clinton-as-super-tuesday-looms/20080203-1pto.html
http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/the-jfk-of-a-new-generation/2008/02/02/1201801100263.html
My bookmaking explanations and examples are NOT flawed on any of my comments.
Not one comment can be pointed out that is flawed.
#868 – KR – The Chinese have not learned or still learning about global marketing and branding. Just like the Japanese had to go through in the 60s and 70s and the Koreans in the 80s and 90s.
Who have heard of Samsung, LG, Hyundai etc previously? Now they are household brands. As sure as night follows day, the Chinese will learn and move up the value chain. In particular how to be really good at managing and utilising the captial and a smart capitalist. Don’t forget only 20 years ago the word capital or capitalist was still a dirty word in the Chinese vocabulary.
BTW, the Chinese are now the largest patent applicants in the World.
clearly my #832 damages your reputation such as it is
waiting for anyone including william to check the maths in it
guess one is a pain im the arse if their maths are correct
No more on this from either party. If Centre wants to do whatever it is he wants to do, he can. If anyone wants to stay out of it because they don’t like the way he’s doing it, that too is up to them.
Correction #899 KR not #868
On the subject of the Dot Com Bubble
Following on from KR’s post a couple of pages back – a couple of things are circulating in my mind. One is hypothetical US meltdown is suggested to be an order of magnitude bigger then the Dot Com issue (see KR posts on the subject). On the other hand I’m watching the posts from Centre justifying the bookmaker rationale. I’m just wondering to myself to what extent a US recession has the capacity to move people from markets to short term gambling, and if this is simply an expression of an underlying insecurity?
JV I think the odds on Obama have eased on Sportingbet. I think they are presently Hillary 2.05, McCain 2.65 and Obama 4.00.
I agree with you on Betfair. It’s a revolution and the TABs are going to be in real trouble to compete.
Oh, funky!
Suggested track for you blogging tragics:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHEO_fG3mm4
..Yes! We can!
905
The Finnigans
Yeah, they are going to move up the food chain all right, and the start of that is using some of their massive savings to biuld their own infrastructure and divert capital to providing for local consumption. All of these things are starting to happen, but when they get up a head of steam, it’s going to be a different world.
#911
OK – honestly – did you post that to lock in with 911 or was that a coincidence?
William #907
believe that was what you should have said earlier as your comment then
was inappropriate
913
davidoff
Ha! I just noticed that too!
Kind of ironic, really. And I liked the way they pitched the song to Obama’s voice and did all those nice cut aways.
The only thing that jars with me is that with two small boys, every time I “yes we can”, I can hear Bob the Builder asking “Can we fix it?”!
Every bloody time! Funny.
Can anyone confirm if Edwards will be on the super-duper-tuesday ticket or not? His announcement was a campaign suspension – not a withdrawal. I’m guessing that there are some operational implications in the words he used. If anyone can provide an authoritative answer – I would be really interested to hear it.
Diogenes – I’d love to know more of the specifics of your background – I.e degree and major and that sort of thing – Neuro was one of the most interesting subjects I’ve had so far, although it was hard as hell. *Curses side effects of epileptic drugs -why must you be so hard to remember!*
The SF Chronicle’s phone poll has Obama closing fast, but the sample is pretty small:
The poll was based on a telephone survey of 511 likely voters in the Democratic primary and 481 likely voters in the Republican primary and was conducted between Jan. 25 and Feb. 1. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points among Democrats, plus or minus 4.6 percentage points among Republicans and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points among general election voters.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/03/MNF7UR6FE.DTL&tsp=1
…it has Obama just half the margin of error behind, and really does have the “big Mo”
It looks like this very large state still has a lot of undecideds and will be very hard to call.
917
Erytnicam
I told you that you could hurt yourself with that stuff! LOL
hey Mac, how’d you go in your exam?
Hmmm, the Hollywood ‘love in’ is over before it even started:
Hillary Clinton Saturday likened her Democratic White House rival Barack Obama to President George W. Bush, arguing he was an untested neophyte who would be a “leap of faith” for voters.
…so now Obama is another GWBush!
Sheeesh, she sure knows how to kick low! LOL
919 – Alright I think – I couldn’t remember the benefits of NaSSA antidepressants over SSRI, Structure Activity relationship of phenothiazines and various fiddly stuff relating to insomnia, but on a hundred mark exam there should be enough stuff that I made it up on. Favourite part – a BS rambling answer on theories of addiction that went for 3/4 of a page without actually saying anything.
Declaring another bet with Betfair – $45 on Obama @ $4.50 (Same pledged % for William if it wins). Am I the only one so far? Come on punters!
KR – Hope the surge to Obama is real and present. Hopefully it will at least be enough to keep him in it after Tuesday, even if he is a bit behind.
Any word on whether Edwards is going to endorse anyone?
916
davidoff Says:
February 3rd, 2008 at 7:23 pm
Can anyone confirm if Edwards will be on the super-duper-tuesday ticket or not?
David the US Primarys system as you know allows postal votiing
US news report that postal votes already sent for both Rudy & Edwards are ‘useless’ which suggests Edwards will not be on the ticket
Here’s a rough idea of what happened in Maine:
Mitt Romney coasted to a win in presidential preference voting by Maine Republicans on Saturday, claiming his third victory in a caucus state and fourth overall.
The former Massachusetts governor had 52 percent of the vote with 68 percent of the towns holding caucuses reporting. John McCain trailed with 21 percent, Ron Paul was third with 19 percent, and Mike Huckabee had 6 percent. Undecided votes accounted for 2 percent.
…so McCain just squeaked past Ron Paul for second place!
There’s 18 delegates up for grabs, so maybe McCain just didn’t think it was worth campaigning in.
By the way, for what it’s worth, Ron Paul is quite well cashed up and looks like he can keep gnawing away at them!
God, he’s an amazing character. Calls a spade a spade, and won’t get drawn into semantic arguments about ‘timetables’ when he sees the whole Iraq thing as an unmitigated disaster and colossal waste for no benefit of any kind.
It’s so funny watching him just say al this stuff, and they sit there looking stunned, and then just proceed to ignore anything he says! It cracks me up!
(Colbert’s take on Paul was classic: they did ‘flashbacks’ with Ron Paul predicting various things like the Hindenberg disaster, and then that the earth revolves around the sun….you get the idea!)
922
jaundiced view
He’s pulling closer by the looks of things, and it’s obviously not going to be a Tsunami Tuesday knockout as quite a few were predicting. Obama will be trailing, but he won’t be out of the race by the look of it.
Warming up!
(Unlike Giuliani, the creepy little creature is now hanging on McCain for more photo-ops and limelight snorting. Uuurgh! He gives me the shivers! And looks like the Floridians weren’t overly impressed either).
OMG! I just ‘verbally brutalised’ Rudy! Oh….oh dear, what have I done! AAAAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaargh!
PS Where’s Glen? How will we know for sure who the next loser will be? LOL
KR , yer they ignore Ron Paul and on the CNN debate even Woof ignored him most of the time
his Poll numbers are poor but as yu say he just keeps plugging away
926
Ron
If anyone can highlight the utter absurdities of their “cut taxes” and “expand the military” and “spend ourselves out of recession” he can, but they’d rather pander to the tired old (false) memories of Reaganism.
Talk about a bloody time-warp! The Republicans are heading into utter irrelevance, and the one time Count Dracula of the Whitehouse, Karl Rove has it completely arse-about:
Democrats have a similar philosophical storehouse in the ideas of FDR and LBJ. Both expanded the size and scope of the federal government and saw it in almost an entirely positive light: as an agent of economic redistribution from the rich to the less affluent, as a provider to the poor and the disabled and as an enforcer of equal rights and equal justice. The Democratic Party has two challenges. One is that the modern economy has led voters to prefer markets, decentralization and consumer choice far more than centralized control by government and the substitution of “expert” decisions for those of the individual.
…well Karl, how is it that the current administration is now sh!tting bricks, printing money, and throwing it out of helicopters if their wonderfully well informed ‘free market’ works so perfectly?
I think the voters are going to see that they’ve shafted by unregulated markets and the only ‘efficiency’ being the way their standard of living is syphoned up the income scales to ultimately benefit the top 5%. Welcome to the social justice of the ‘free market’: free to bugger the economy and let the poor saps pay for it.
ah, end rant!
its Reaganism but the economic circumstances are now different
they’ve got a budget deficit of a 40o hundred BILLION , a trade decicit debt to China alone of 1.4 trillion , inflation breaking out and they want to reduce tax’s which will fuel all 3 ?
917 erytnicam- I have a checkered career. Maths and physics were my main loves (unrequited) but I have an MB BS (Hons) and then a PhD in neurophysiology (in the human enteric nervous system ie the gut’s nervous system). Then I did surgery and became a plastic surgeon. Somewhere in there was a further year on the cell and molecular biology of craniosynostosis (where the skull doesn’t grow).
I’ve always been interested in psychiatry (that’s why I did medicine, then I met the patients which put me off) and neurosurgery (those patients REALLY put me off, not to mention the neurosurgeons!). It’s much better this way coz I can indulge my philosophy/psychiatry/psychology/sociology hobbies now.
There was a serious point to my question about dementia though. I’ve got to do a little research and then I’ll ask another question.
Diogenes I’ve generally found psych patients infinitely more interesting, and often much less disturbed, than their shrinks!
#929 – Are we supposed to be impressed or feel sorry for you?
MayoFeral- I was going to add that my experience of psych patients was heavily skewed by only seeing inpatients (who were often chronic, severely disturbed people) and when I met the outpatient psych patients, I realised that they did very well on the whole and that you could help many. And yes, many were very interesting (I remember one who had a restraining order on him going near stobie poles because he loved blacking out whole suburbs, having worked for ETSA!). Many shrinks are mentally unwell for many reasons. I’m sure you are aware of a prominent suicide last year which very sadly confirmed this.
But so are many politicians. In this study, 49% of US presidents were found to have a mental illness, most commonly depression.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1618741/posts
931- There’s nothing to be impressed about in that little lot. And frankly, when I look at it I find it a bit pathetic. What the hell have I done with my life!!
Dio @ 932,
An interesting one about the Presidents’ depression.
I heard a guy on the radio a few months ago who maintained that the reason why very intelligent, high achieving people go into politics (with all the sh*t and the relatively mediocre monetary rewards), is that many politicians have issues with their families and the like. They go into politics to feel wanted.
It’s just a theory, but an interesting one.
Diogenes – this point from the article is a little surprising to me:
“The researchers wrote that the 49 percent rate mirrored national mental illness statistics”
Given the standard assessing criteria of the DSM IV were used, this is a high figure for the general population is it not?
It means every child born has close to a 50/50 chance of a diagnosible mental illness (as defined in the Statistical Matrix) at some stage in their lives.
Crikey.
Although that is in the States of course. Surely our rate here is lower!
For example, w don’te have very many Mormons and Scientologists for a start, and they would have to be in the 49% straight off!
936 typo – “we don’t”
Diogenes, you are a plastic surgeon? You didn’t give Julie B here Stepford stare did you?
Was the blackout guy a big bloke with initials of CR, or possibly calling himself a hyphenated ’surname’, one word of which is something you have with tea?
As for the presidents, that job would affect the psyche of even the sanest. Heck, just the process of getting the job must do that!
I’m going to have to get the journal out tomorrow. The figures for mental illness in US and Oz are about 20% lifetime incidence of DSMIV disease. I think that bit was spurious. The bit that interests me is the incidence of mental disorder during presidency of 27%, which would have impaired job performance. This is the abstract.
http://www.jonmd.com/pt/re/jnmd/abstract.00005053-200601000-00009.htm;jsessionid=HllcfdqkNrHvhNGh3TRRTbGxtSVNlVVs2K7h8Fpmp5ZttlfHHTn1!-1108188142!181195628!8091!-1?index=1&database=ppvovft&results=1&count=10&searchid=2&nav=search
I have had a very unpleasant experience of a very senior surgeon who was demented and caused serious harm (not a plastic surgeon BTW) as it was not picked up etc etc, hence my interest in an impaired POTUS. Imagine what harm could occur with an unrecognised impaired POTUS. I think the whole topic merits further discussion. What safeguards are there? Not everyone is as decent and honest as Geoff Gallup.
In this study, 49% of US presidents were found to have a mental illness, most commonly depression. So its 50/50 Bush has depression cause Bill shouldn’t !
If so , how is it that President Bush gives us depression then ?
TW- I think Julie B has mild thyroid eye disease.
MF- This was almost 20 years ago while I was still a med student. I can remember wondering if he was around every time there was a blackout. And I never met him in person, only by legend.
It’s not a mad POTUS (and ya gotta say, we’ve already had some!), that’ll get us.
I’ve just come across this alarming little detail, (and remember how much the rightwing just loves ‘carbon sequestration’ as the answer to everything):
Vaclav Smil, an energy expert at the University of Manitoba, has estimated that capturing and burying just 10 percent of the carbon dioxide emitted over a year from coal-fire plants at current rates would require moving volumes of compressed carbon dioxide greater than the total annual flow of oil worldwide — a massive undertaking requiring decades and trillions of dollars. “Beware of the scale,” he stressed
…so you can stick that sequestered carbon in ya pipe and smoke it! It ain’t even wildly within the bounds of reasonable.
Anyway, thought I’d just throw that in for amusement!
The latest Gallup Polls are here in abridged form:
http://www.salon.com/wires/ap/2008/02/02/D8UIC1EO1_poll_2008_national/index.html
Clinton is only just ahead of Obama and McCain is a shoo-in.
Ah, interesting times.