Voting has begun in today’s Florida primaries, the last to be held before Super Tuesday apart from Republican caucuses in Maine on Saturday. For refusing to play by the rules of the parties’ national committees, Florida has been stripped of the 210 delegates it would normally send to the Democratic national convention, along with half of its 114 Republican delegates. All 57 of the Republican delegates will be pledged to the winning candidate, whereas the Democratic primary amounts to nothing more than an opinion poll. Polls show John McCain and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck in the Republican race, with Rudy Giuliani looking very unlikely to pull off his Florida-first strategy.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Florida primaries thread
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1,099 Comments
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as a point of interest
heard helen reddy today on abc local radio-she made a very interesting point-that in her view americans would vote for a black man ahead of a woman-quite telling as she felt the public wasnt ready for a woman president.
Zogby: Obama, Romney Ahead In California
from the same article:
952
davidoff
the narrowing has happened !
thought 4% is abit better than small lead despite the MOR
David has California got 57 delegates the most or have I mixed the states
952
davidoff
let’s not forget Zogby’s New Hampshire poll! LOL
But it looks like the big Mo is definitely with Obama and Clinton is fighting to hold her status as the top dog.
Boy, ain’t Tsunami Tuesday going to be a ripper! Of course with the Dems arcane system of appointing delegates, with Obama this close to Clinton, it’s almost assured that she cannot knock him out on Tuesday. (Of course the polls could be dreadfully wrong too, and we’ve seen a couple of shockers).
#954
delegate count for the super-tuesday Democrats
State/Allocated/Super
Alabama 52 8
Alaska 13 5
Arizona 56 11
Arkansas 35 12
California 370 71
Colorado 55 16
Connecticut 48 12
Delaware 15 8
Georgia 87 16
Idaho 18 5
Illinois 153 32
Kansas 32 9
Massachusetts 93 28
Minnesota 72 16
Missouri 72 16
New Jersey 107 20
New Mexico 26 12
New York 232 49
North Decoda 2 13
Oklahoma 38 9
Tennessee 68 17
Utah 23 6
954
Ron
you need to read this, it’s 53 Congressional Districts and 370 delegates
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/03/MNE1UOVB1.DTL
KR – But what if she cries? What if she AND Bill cry? THEN WHAT OF YOUR HUMAN POLLS?
No we have renewed faith in the Polls now that Obama is ahead
Whereas seriously the traditional betting agency odds have always been useless re Clinton vs Obama yet some quote them I don’t know why
Obama’s odds were always ridiculously over the odds at 7/2 which have never reflected his chances but merely the ‘book’ on Clinton
..so you must be laughing KR at the the odds u got KR on Obama
956
David, you forgot to say “SNAP”!
#956
Imagine the mood inside the Clinton camp!
It’s a shame Adam decided to leave this site – his contrbutions were good.
958
Erytnicam
As Heraclitus, the ancient Greek philosopher once (almost) put it:
“You cannot cry twice into the same election campaign”
..and this has stood the test of time, for over 2,000yrs!
Erytnicam , we all will be so moved by their tears
By the way when we had that fierce debate the other night before your exam,
hope you acquitted yourself as well in the exam as u did in the debate ??
962
Jasmine Pierce
pity, all those ‘ignorant loathing lefties’ drove him away in disgust! LOL
was Adam a disciple of the Ann Coulter of PB & Pompous Toff as my memory of him is fading by the minute
961
davidoff
yeah, the gloves will be well and truly off if they are seeing similar numbers.
Gonna be hard for Bill to go into overdrive though, as the entire world will be watching his every twitch and magnifying it into a nuclear meltdown, and Hillary now MUST remain ‘presidential’ or else will look like a tacky loser.
Nup, it’ll have to be via proxies or it’s going to be nasty to watch.
Erytnicam , saw your blog with Diogenes who has unbelievable qualifications & it reminded me you were having an exam
….presume you passed with flying colours ?
The problem for bill is he tried to get that ‘race’ and inexperience’ card out there
and the media blew him up….he may well be in tears
Would Heraclitus give dispensation to Bill to cry or has hillary used up the Clinton quota
For anyone sitting on the fence – wondering about what Obama’s views on Iraq, foreign affairs, and ethics in Washington are – the following should be mandatory viewing.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/sarahramey/CGBSV
I don’t find out the result for a while, but Diogenes is too qualified for this blog
He reminds me of Dr Karl in being the sort of person who picks up degrees and knowledge for fun.
And no offence meant in that debate, I think it was late at night and noone was quite understanding each other – rest assured I do think (the more I see it) that McCains abuse of his POW status is very similar to Giulianis abuse of 9/11.
Also, did Adam leave this site, or has he just no blogged in a while, to return when Hillary wins with a massive ‘told you so’
950 erytnicam- I’m sorry to have to inform you and anyone who’s reading but most doctors, myself included, don’t know all that much about most drugs. GPs often are unaware of drug interactions, which happen frequently. Specialists know a lot about the drugs they commonly prescribe eg a cardiologist will know all the interactions and side-effects of calcium channel blockers etc but will have almost no idea about anti-epileptics for example. There are just too many drugs to know all the side-effects and drug interactions of all of them, unless you are a clinical pharmacologist. Some GPs are very good as well.
I used to think it didn’t matter much, as the side effects were rarely serious and the drug interactions didn’t matter much until I read an article reporting the about 10% of all hospital admissions were due to adverse effects of prescribed drugs!!
News from Alabama
http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/article/20080202/NEWS/122394749/1007
When it comes to dispensed drugs, there is no excuse for it reaching the patient no matter what the doctor screwed up – that’s our end of the bargain to double check your stuff before it goes out. Mind you drs can be right d*cks about it, I can remember on one of my first placements as an utter newbie being told to call up the doc about an incorrect script with me saying ‘did you mean to prescribe this’, which was followed by yes of course. The preceptor then called and said the same thing, and was welcomed with, why I will most certainly change that!
The benefits of age and wisdom, one assumes.
#971
The subject of drug interactions is rather interesting because there are solutions to this. If you have a global pool of new data detailing prescriptions and follow-up symptoms – you can apply a lot of logic at the information systems level to identify potential issues. All you really need is a global base of information.
Erytnicam
u are 100% right , it was too late at night & we were not understanding each other & appreciate you saying so as thats what i thought the next day too
Yep Rudy is doing a McCain over his 9/11 involvement
Unfortunately I’d just seen a tape of McCain’s debate & he frustrated me enormously by saying anyone who opposed Iraq was not patriotic and that he should know because he was a POW
I felt he had lost the right & respect to be called a war hero and so said he now is not one but you were right he is still one….perhaps now with with respect
hope this clears us up Erytnicam as I have more than enough neo conservative
opponents (some closet) on this blog
Oh, I’d say most neo conservatives are pretty closeted if 2007 was anything to go by.
*has a wide stance*
After that, wide stance became my favorite term, because it makes me believe some people go to the bathroom as though they were giving birth.
is that “has a wide stance* patented ?
beautiful quip
its a sort of the Claytons insult which isn’t
970
Erytnicam
He’d hope for the latter, but his bragging rights might be shrinking quite a bit with each passing hour.
She’ll get the majority vote, but some never suspected she’d not be a clear winner after Tuesday, and just go back and check some of the ’snide’ posts if you don’t believe me!
Anyone who questioned this ‘wisdom’ was treated as some sort of mentally challenged retard by a number of characters.
976
Erytnicam
That was a classic line! Loved it, and the whole tough guy macho BS stuff that went with it!
#978
On the subject of mentally challenged …
I’ve just punched some numbers though a little engine of mine and I can see a scenario where Obama get more delegates than Clinton. This is based on my early projections but updated with the Zodgy numbers. Either way – post super tuesday – the race will continue with Obama and the Clintons.
thats why I wanted to know if it was patented …..the delayed effect retort
are you assuming California to Obama ??
David
have read that site you supplied on Obama’s wide ranging foreign Policy agenda
…seems soundly based & virtually a reverse of George bush in evry respect
That Alabama tracking Poll being outside the MOR range is a signifiant shift to Obama …wonder whether the former Edwards votes are reflected in some of this
#982 the numbers were based on Obama ahead 1% in California
Here is the breakout for my Obama beats Clinton scenario:
The numbers are basically the percentage difference in favor of Clinton for each of the states (i.e. a -7 means Obama ahead of clinton by 7%, a 5 means Clinton ahead of Obama by 5%). I then apply the number of delegates for each state relative to the projected result. Any states without numbers are resolved using an national average.
Alabama -7
Alaska 0
Arizona 5
Arkansas 0
California -4
Colorado -3
Connecticut -2
Delaware 0
Georgia -20
Idaho 0
Illinois -30
Kansas 0
Massachusetts 6
Minnesota 15
Missouri 1
New Jersey 1
New Mexico 0
New York 15
North Decoda 0
Oklahoma 25
Tennessee 0
Utah 0
KR , I thought this may tickle your fancy
On the other Thread this morning at blogs #132 & #134 you should read the 2
blogers feeling distressed at the sledging they had recieved previously sometime
One of the 2 was your annointee ‘Mr snide” !!!
you’ll see my brief retort at #136 as I was moved to tears by their discomforture
#983 – correction – that should be 4%
David
am not questioning your analysis but can you clarify the following States Polls
as electoral-vote.com says the Clinton/Obama vote %’s are
not sure if they are pre or post Edwards but the Polls are dated to 31/1/08
Massachusetts 50/35
New jersey 50/38
New York 55/33
Tennessee 59/26
which if correct may give hillary more delegates in these States but hope not
#984
a cut and paste issue – states which I’m applying a national average include Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, Idaho, Kansas, New Mexico, North Dakota, Tennessee and Utah (which all represent rather small percentages in the overall equation)
#987 are you referring to me?
David I was wondering about these 4 states large pro Clinton Poll lead per 30/1/08 Polls listed on electoral-vote.com and whether your figures had Poll numbers with lower pro clinton leads in those 4 or similar
#987
The name is ‘davidoff’ – one word.
You should – I do if that helps any.
I updated my numbers with the figure you supplied and I get the following result:
Clinton 937 delegates, Obama 868 delegates (i.e. 52%/48%). We would need something like a 15% difference to see a knockout punch post super-tuesday and this is only 4%.
well thats really encouraging because the figures I supplied from that web site
aslo had 4 Polls averaged and those were only to 29/1/08 with Clinton 47 to 36
and we know from your advice on the tracking polls California since has gone hifted massively & so perhaps the 4 states listed to the 31/1/08 have similarly moved
in any event , the figures for the 4 States would seem the BEST Clinton can get…meaning your latest result of Obama with a 69 deficit may be close & Obama is very competitive one would feel
correction 2nd line should add ‘for California’
these are my updated numbers based on your data
Alabama -7
Alaska
Arizona 5
Arkansas
California -4
Colorado -3
Connecticut -2
Delaware
Georgia -20
Idaho
Illinois -30
Kansas
Massachusetts 15
Minnesota 15
Missouri 1
New Jersey 12
New Mexico
New York 22
North Dakota
Oklahoma 25
Tennessee 33
Utah
If anyone has any recommendations for changes I’ll be happy to plug numbers in a see where they take us.
Just a note – I need to update Arkansas because Hillary has about a 30 point lead – although its a small state and only represents 12 delegates.
Davidoff
to be precise with the dates the Polls were up to
Massachusetts 50/35…30/1/08 ..2 averaged Polls
New jersey 50/38……..31/1/08 ..2 averaged Polls
New York 55/33……….31/1/08 ..2 averaged Polls
Tennessee 59/26……..301/08 ..1 Poll
agree with you there will be no knockout punch against Obama & also the momentium may build in his favour as future States voters know previous States voters supported Obama in big credibility numbers
better go
good night fellow Poll Bludgers
Here are my updated numbers resulting from some qualification of sentiments in those states that no polls exist for (mostly very conservative). I’ve based some numbers on past presidential elections so its not really comparing apples with apples but generally speaking – if I’m way out it will not matter because they don’t amount to a hill of beans in terms of delegates. I’ve moved New Jearsey back to a 1 point advantage to Hillary (preferring the more recent data from zogby). I’ve moved Alabama to 1 point advantage Obama based on competing suggestions of 6 point advantage asserted by the Hillary’s camp as opposed to a 6 point advantage to Obama from independent sources. The rest of the numbers are resolved based on data from usatoday, polster.com, zogby, data from Ron, data from Hillary’s site, and my own personal guesswork.
Note – numbers reflect the percentage point advantage to Hillary over Obama.
Alabama -1
Alaska 15
Arizona 5
Arkansas 30
California -4
Colorado -3
Connecticut -2
Delaware 2
Georgia -20
Idaho 30
Illinois -30
Kansas -10
Massachusetts 15
Minnesota 15
Missouri 1
New Jersey 1
New Mexico 4
New York 16
North Dakota 0
Oklahoma 25
Tennessee 33
Utah 20
Numbers crank out the following result (excluding superdelegates):
Hillary 928 delegates (51%)
Obama: 877 (49%)
Earlier today in the Washington Post
Which raises significant question about my projection of a 30 point win in Idaho by Clinton.
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