Voting has begun in today’s Florida primaries, the last to be held before Super Tuesday apart from Republican caucuses in Maine on Saturday. For refusing to play by the rules of the parties’ national committees, Florida has been stripped of the 210 delegates it would normally send to the Democratic national convention, along with half of its 114 Republican delegates. All 57 of the Republican delegates will be pledged to the winning candidate, whereas the Democratic primary amounts to nothing more than an opinion poll. Polls show John McCain and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck in the Republican race, with Rudy Giuliani looking very unlikely to pull off his Florida-first strategy.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Florida primaries thread
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1,099 Comments
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Do you confirm my belief that this is a Obame negative KR? The way it plays out if there is no endorsement will be fascinating.
Here is another URL to the Edwards article.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1708125,00.html
Erytnicam – thanks for the heads up.
201
Erytnicam
All I can say Mac, is that I am not surprised, and was pretty sure he wouldn’t last much longer after such a poor showing in SC.
As for how this runs now, sheesh, how does anyone really know? It’s a primary, where some Edwards fans may just stay home, while the others split. I’ll admit I haven’t a clue, and I strongly suspect not too many people will either!
(No doubt we’ll get someone to tell us, however!)
My fear is that large portions of his demographic are crusty old establishment types who want their UHC without compromise.
This sounds interesting:
The former North Carolina senator will not immediately endorse either candidate
…but will he ultimately, and what will persuade him one way or the other?
Three senators and a governor (seriously) left, spot the odd man out.
#203
If Edwards himself does not lean one way or the other then its kind of neutral. Exit polls indicate that Edwards supporters are evenly split between the two other front runners. Where things get interesting is the actions Edwards takes with respect to enforcements – and it seems to me he is doing a good job of setting himself up to set an agenda and pull in the bids. But lets wait another 4 hours and see what the announcement brings to the table.
Quite, KR. I despair more over the naysayers, who would dash or malign the idea of hope. Something we all experienced in our own election, god, year.
The cynics, those who said/say ‘they are all the same.’
I had rather strong arguments with my own Labor friends, who took this view.
Gratifyingly, a final argument, supported by the recently retired Catholic Bishop to the Solomons, in whose company I pleasantly found myself, whilst not necessarily winning the day, shut the mouths of those who would take odds with a hopeful stance.
Where would we be without it? I know. Why do we have children? Why do we care for, educate, argue and discuss with children? If there is no change, why bother?
It is rather as Howard and Co tried for, ‘they have no experience.’
Not good enough.
#206 correction
I said ‘enforcements’ and I meant ‘endorsements’.
Wow – some unhappy people over on the John Edwards blog!
Just for the archives – here is CNNs announcement of the John Edwards exit.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/30/edwards/index.html
Obama reacts on Edwards withdrawal.
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/obama_on_edwards_dropout_his_cause_endures_for_all_of_us.php
CNN here in the US is now saying Rudi is going to announce his withdrawal today and endorse McCain
And the NYT seems to be the first one in with some speculation of the days ahead.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/30/and-then-there-were-two/
More info from the Obama site:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/CGjZy
Edwards is such a rat! I hope Hilary doesnt even give him an ambassadorship!
Kirribilli, loved your Babel Fish reference, I think the result would be “permanent fatal error” unable to translate.
From ABC Online:
Barra doesn’t beat about the bush does he? He’s a take-charge kinda guy.
Foreman material who has just received the kiss of life OR the kiss of death from the Kennedy clan. There’s no movement in the market so far cos the story’s still dripping wet, but I can feel a firming coming on. (Eddy don’t be cheap! Spare us the pun, this is one for little Tabitha)
“Mr Edwards was not expected to immediately endorse either candidate but Senator Obama immediately laid claim to Senator Edwards supporters, saying he championed many of the same causes as Senator Edwards and his wife, Elizabeth, who is fighting cancer.
“John and Elizabeth Edwards have always believed deeply … that two Americans can become one,” Senator Obama said. “So while his campaign may end today, the cause of their lives endures.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/01/31/2150556.htm
216
Basil Fawlty
Good one! That really made me laugh.
Gotta hand it to him though, he can consistently express his convoluted thoughts in such a consistently convoluted way that it’s more than just baroque squiggles, it’s a giant and splendid maze of contradictions.
But hey, it keeps us amused, what?
Two interesting stories about Obama firming in National Polling and women avoiding the Rublican Party in droves.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/gallup_tracking_obama_gaining.php
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/missing_republican_women_prima.php
219
steve
Just wondering if that Mark Blumenthal is closely related to Sidney Blumenthal ?
Sid’s gone back to work for the Clintons again, and although I’ve always enjoyed his dissection of the rightwing nutoids that have been in charge of buggering the nation, I’m a little disappointed by that decision, but that’s life! LOL
By the way, interesting stuff on women primary voting numbers.
Thanks, a good read.
KR, Sidney certainly has a colourful life but Mark seems to be your regular Democratic leaning polling professional.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidney_Blumenthal
Giuliani’s support for McCain was expected, but Edwards’ lack of endorsement so far for Obama is a bit of a concern. Maybe some deal-making going on?
For a bit of fun – here’s GeorgeW!
The question arises – in what way are the current Repug candidates any better on the warming issue? Especially ‘it all started 6000 years ago’ Mitt:
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3snis_bushonglobalwarming_fun
JV, they are both seeking Edwards’ endorsement.
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/top_edwards_adviser_trippi_on_hillary_and_obama_theyre_banging_down_the_doors_for_our_endorsement.php
Romnoidy (as in “nerd”, pronounced like “Nu Joisy” for New Jersey!) may as well go home now. If the Noid can’t trounce McCain on the biggest issue around ie the economy (stooopid!), he’s cactus:
Surveys of voters leaving polling places painted a picture of how successful each campaign was. They found that Mr. McCain not only did significantly better than Mr. Romney among voters who listed the war as their top concern, but also did better than him with voters who said they were most concerned about the economy.
Mr. Romney did significantly better than Mr. McCain among voters who said they were most concerned about immigration.
Both candidates now face the challenge of rallying the fractured party establishment and grass-roots conservatives behind them — or at least not around their opponent.
…so now that Rudy (I’ll protect us from exploding Mexicans) Giuliani isn’t beating this issue to death, maybe it will take an even bigger backseat. ‘Coz the economy is sure a hell in the punters viewfinders now!
When GDP growth drops from almost 5% annualised to 0.6% in one quarter, that gets everyone’s attention. Real quick! (Mind you it’s a complex story, and there’s a few bits of not so bad news, but hey, with that much bad news the not so bad news doesn’t go very far).
Anyway, Romnoid is cactus. So now, let’s watch the GOP enjoy their candidate dragging them from the far loopy social right to the hard militaristic ‘bomb Iran’ right.
This oughta be lots of fun.
224
steve
Oh, do stay tuned, as they say in TV land!
Can the AG rumours be that out of the ballpark? Hey, stuff principle, this politics, and there’s gotta be deals done in all those backrooms, or what else are they for?
Thanks Steve – I see that while both Obama and Clinton have spoken to Edwards this morning (our time), it was Edwards who phoned Obama, but Clinton contacted Edwards. It’s the little things that tel the story, I hope!
Since McCain has decided to do nothing in both cases it is hard to fathom why both these issues would be running his way. I think both these issues will be a millstone around his neck when it comes time to fight off the Democrats.
Shit.
I said this could happen – but never actually expected it too.
This really has thrown the race wide open. Some of his supporters will swing to the only other candidate who offers ‘change.’ Others will switch to whom they think their best shot is – somebody who is white, stable and well known
Either way, this all confirms the following:
The Democratic nominee is going to either be black or a woman.
That’s gotta mean something!
Personally, I think his dropping out will benefit Obama, but we will see.
Andy Kohut, the pollster, was just on NPR and reckoned a week or so back, Edwards voters said they go for Obama over Clinton by a roughly 10% difference (he said 40 something to low thirty something), but didn’t know how that split would go now.
He also asked the really interesting question: where do the white male voters go now?
Think about it! It is going to be VERY interesting.
Well I hope Edwards is off preparing a big speech endorsing Obama as a the great chance for change as oposed to Clinton the baggage carrier, and delivers it to an attentive Democrat audience at large, after the media dust has settled on the Giuliani endorsement of McCain.
New York Post endorsement
http://www.nypost.com/seven/01302008/postopinion/editorials/post_endorses_barack_obama_813218.htm
The NYP wastes no time with niceties, does it?
It triangulates the Clintons on their own petard, and calls it for Obama is at the very least, not the re-run of the 90’s move with all its noir imagery.
warming up!
And in California Obama is running a new TV advert with pictures of him and his mother (yes, that’s her, the white one!)
warming up!
But not warming up in Florida for Rudy, ah well, all those exploding Mexicans will be going off everywhere now!
I think Edwards is doing the right thing by holding off on an endorsement. I went to have a look at his blog, and a lot of hard core supporters there appreciate the fact they aren’t just being used as voting sheep. Let them make up their own minds, or give the illusion as such.
Interestingly, from what I read, most of those supporters were divided into three groups. Those who are voting for Edwards anyway, those who aren’t voting at all, and those who are voting for Obama. Very few, if any, said they were switching to the Clinton camp.
I suspect that Edwards, unless he is desperately after a role in any Democratic Administration and thus hedging his bets, will endorse somebody (Obama) just before Super Tuesday – the last surge of momentum. He’ll know if he is going to act, he needs to do so before than, because this is the one day when Obama can be delivered a knockout punch. Clinton only needs to do what the polls have said – win big – and the machine men will fall in behind her, with that being the ball game.
steve-
just out of interest why would the NY Post not endorse a repug instead?
Anyone else get the feeling that if Clinton wins (esp. if it’s via super delegates) it is going to taste like bitter poison to a hell of a lot of Democrats?
I think that getting out the vote for Clinton is going to be very very hard for the Dems, now that their base has had a wiff of what a real “inspriational” candidate can engender in Obama…
In fact, I don’t think the issue for the Dems will be “oh no, it’s Clinton Mk 2″ – it’s going to be “oh no, it’s KERRY Mk 2″.
Fascinating new board odds from CBet
President – WINNER
CLINTON, Hillary 2.40
MCCAIN, John 3.00
OBAMA, Barack 3.15
MSNBC is running an internet poll on who Edwards should endorce.
Currently 15,699 votes are registered with the following preferences:
Clinton: 28%
Obama: 59%
No on: 14%
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22915342/
Edwards by staying in, is looking for leverage & isn’t sure whether to go with his beliefs (for Obama) or go for the likely political super tuesday winner (Clinton)
The first casualty of becoming a pollie is often ‘principles’
although Pollies like Howard had none to start with
Nader considering 5th Bid for POTUS
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23136883-601,00.html
Well at least the worst he can do this time is give us McCain as the next POTUS.
BTW While I was pleased Edwards pulled out, I seriously doublt it will make any difference. It’s going to be Billary v McCain. In fact, I was so convinced of that last night that I decided to have a break from political books and read Robert Hughes’ biography of every true Cynics favourite painter Goya. Happily relaxed and care-free, I commenced reading and the first thing Hughes says is a big thank you to his best mate Malcolm Bloody Turnbull.
Oh well, so much for my sage analysis
I think Turnbull is his brother in law.
nader running is a sure fire way of helping the repug candidate win
According to the NY Times things are now going so ‘well’ in Iraq that:
And it seems that the already promised troop cuts may not be quite what they seemed either:
Will McCain be pleased by the Surge ‘dividend’ going south?
Giuliani endorses McCain and Arnie is going to as well
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/31/us/politics/31campaign.html?ref=politics
The odds on a McCain win at 2:1 are looking better and better.
Well I guess I have to retract my confident assertion that Edwards would not withdraw – just shows one should never believe anything a political candidate says! This does alter the equation for Super Tuesday somewhat, since I imagine the majority of Edwards’s vote will go to Obama. Some of his low-income-white-populist base won’t want to vote for a black candidate, but they probably won’t want to vote for a woman either, so they’ll just stay home. Edwards’s “left” support (using the word in its very relative American sense) will go straight to Obama. This may put Obama within striking distance of winning CA and maybe other states too, but he still needs more momentum than the polls up till now have shown. I still think Clinton will carry most of the Super Tuesday states, and if she does that it will probably be too late for Obama to stop her.
If Ralph Nader dares show his face in this campaign he will be lynched, and rightly so.
On a different topic – look at the OZ – it’s just received a very very juicy leak from someone in Liberal HQ:
“Libs consider IR u-turn ploy to trap Rudd ”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23137409-601,00.html
Adam, I’ll be happy to form part of the lynch mob.
Dio, I’ll bring the rope!
Adam, don’t worry, not too many of us really believe anything they say anymore, despite our yearnings for the impossible dream, the Camelot rising from the mists of another age (or whatever turns one on!).
As Paul Simon says in one of his most poetic albums (Hearts and Bones):
“the thought that life can be better, is woven indelibly
into our hearts and our brains”
This is could a sample of conversation between Hillary and Obama now that Edwards is out. Names have been changed to protect the guilty parties:
Hillary: Please divert your course 15 degrees to the South to avoid collision.
Obama: Recommend you divert YOUR course 15 degrees to the North to avoid a collision.
Hillary: Negative. You will have to divert your course15 degrees to the South to avoid a collision.
Obama: This is the Captain of U.S. Navy Ship, I say again, divert YOUR course.
Hillary: Negative, I say again, you will have to divert your course.
Obama: This is the captain of the aircraft carrier USS Lincoln, the Second largest ship in the United States Atlantic Fleet, we are accompanied By three destroyers, three cruisers and numerous support vessels, demand That you change your course 15 degrees north, that’s 15 degrees north or Counter measures will be undertaken to ensure the safety of this ship.
Hillary: WE ARE A LIGHTHOUSE. F*CK OFF
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