The latest face-to-face Morgan poll shows Labor breaking its record result of a few weeks ago. It now leads 56.5 per cent to 31.5 per cent on the primary vote and 64.5-35.5 on two-party preferred. Morgan also presents us with qualitative findings on perceptions of the two leaders, which gives a strong impression that Brendan [...]
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Monthly Archives: February 2008
Exit strategies
Wednesday, February 27, 2008 – 5:15 am
It seems increasingly likely that we will soon be enjoying a “super Saturday” of federal by-elections, with a raft of former ministers preparing to take the money and run. While some have suggested the exodus might begin as soon as this week, other reports indicate that the relevant suspects are being “urged to stay on [...]
ACNielsen: 51-49 to Labor in NSW
Tuesday, February 26, 2008 – 1:10 am
ACNielsen has followed yesterday’s Victorian state poll with the one we’ve all been waiting for: the first New South Wales poll to follow the series of disasters that befell Morris Iemma’s 12-year-old Labor government last week. Unfortunately, the poll was conducted “from February 15 to 19 – significantly, before the worst of the Wollongong corruption [...]
ACNielsen: 59-41 to Labor in Victoria
Monday, February 25, 2008 – 2:43 pm
The Age has today published an ACNielsen survey of 1001 voters on Victorian state voting intention, which shows Labor leading 48 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote and 59-41 on two-party preferred. This compares with 54.4-45.6 at the November 2006 election.
US presidential primaries: week off edition
Monday, February 25, 2008 – 4:31 am
We’re now half way through a quiet period in the presidential primaries calendar, which will end with the last major contests in Texas and Ohio next Tuesday. The graphs below show Democratic opinion polling over the past two weeks, bearing in mind that there are almost as many pollsters represented here as polls. The pollsters [...]
Murdoch by-election live
Saturday, February 23, 2008 – 9:37 pm
7.58pm. Notional preference count now up to half, producing no change worth mentioning.
7.54pm. Notional distribution of preferences, based on a bit less than a quarter of the vote, gives a Liberal-versus-Greens two-party preferred of 69.5-30.5.
7.51pm. I speak too soon: Murdoch University now in. Only 478 votes, so not sure what took them so long. This [...]
Apple sliced
Friday, February 22, 2008 – 2:51 pm
This post began life as an addendum to my post on the Dennis Shanahan article, which read as follows:
In other news, the AEC has commenced a redistribution for Tasmania, it having gone the maximum seven years without one. The AEC’s figures respectively put enrolment in Bass, Denison and Lyons at 1.2 per cent, 1.6 per [...]
Morgan: Rudd 77, Nelson 9
Friday, February 22, 2008 – 2:23 pm
Roy Morgan, which normally goes easy on “beauty contest” questions, has today entered the fray with a phone poll of 527 respondents. It gives Brendan Nelson the same 9 per cent preferred prime minister rating he suffered from Newspoll, with Kevin Rudd on 77 per cent compared with Newspoll’s 70 per cent. That’s not the [...]
Anyone for Dennis?
Thursday, February 21, 2008 – 3:45 am
With the election safely out of the way, we might have expected the heat to have gone out of the great blogosphere-versus-The Australian opinion poll wars. Turns out Dennis Shanahan has other ideas:
This week’s most eye-catching figures were Kevin Rudd’s 70per cent and Brendan Nelson’s 9per cent on the question of who would make the [...]
Washington, Wisconsin, Hawaii
Tuesday, February 19, 2008 – 3:28 am
The last significant presidential primaries until March 4 will be held tomorrow our time: primaries in Wisconsin and Washington for both parties, plus caucuses in Hawaii for the Democrats. Discuss them at your leisure here.
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