Morgan has simultaneously released results of face-to-face polling conducted over the previous two weekends, and a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday. The former has Labor leading 49 per cent to 36 per cent on the primary vote and 59-41 on two-party preferred, compared with 61.5-38.5 at the previous such poll a fortnight earlier; the latter has Labor’s leads at 50 per cent to 34.5 per cent and 60-40, compared with 63-37 last week. In other news, political parties’ financial disclosure returns for 2006/07 have been published by the Australian Electoral Commission: Steven Mayne sifts through the evidence at Crikey (subscriber only).
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 59-41
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302 Comments
The Narrowing!!!!!
While Rudd’s honeymoon persists and the Libs fall on each other over Sorry, who would like to tip the TPP highwater mark that will be achieved by the ALP in a Morgan poll this year ?
I almost wish Steven Kaye was still around. I’d love to hear his rationale as to why 80-20 is just where Brendan wants to be to swoop back in 2010.
To save Glen and others the bother, this poll is rigged, it is pro-Labor, it underestimates the National vote, it overestimates the Greens. Have I left out anything??
As for the numbers, I want to see a new record!! Is the current record 62/38 or has it been higher??
How many times during the honeymoon?
It’s is impossible to take these poll results seriously. Gary Morgan should really wait until the “first 100 days” out of respect for our overworked powers of analysis. Nor do we need to know how many people don’t want to say “sorry”. We had the election.
The figures on who pays the piper are more interesting. Sad to see that One Nation only received small change.
I’ve just read through the header, and it seems we had a 63/37 last week. Is THAT the record??
br
for old time sake
‘3 April 2007 at 5:59 pm
And Newspoll underestimates the National Party vote by 2% as they had them on on 4% when they generally get 6% once you add that on and it trims the ALPs lead by even more…how will the scumbags of the Labor Party stop the rot that will more than likely set in from now on…budget here we come!”
#6. Gus, that was just like old times. But may be you need to get out more often ?
#4. Kevin, who said anything about taking the polls seriously ? That might spoil our fun !
I’ve been a bit quiet but can I say regarding our local result with St Maxine …..
Told you !!!!
Clearly, there are withdrawals going on here – so I searched my vault and
found these two gems.
Steven Kaye Says:
June 18th, 2007 at 2:38 am
The Nielsen is a rogue poll, but the Newspoll is about right (with a slight underestimation of the Nationals primary vote). Correcting for that, we find both parties are at either extreme of the 6 point band I mentioned in an earlier thread, a band they’ll occupy until the end of July. Then a further narrowing will occur.
Nostradamus Says:
June 18th, 2007 at 7:04 am
The polls will stay in this kind of range with a slight trend towards narrowing until the election is called, after which they will change dramatically to 50-50 or with the Government in front. The Coalition will be then nicely placed for a fifth election win.
Aristotle et al,
And the dish ran away with the spoon.
I think Nostradamus may have been real. There is detail and a seriousness there that would be out of place in a pure wind-up.
wind-up or not, would be good to see a bit of contrition from some bloggers here. What was always missing was the question of HOW the polls would change.
bad polls for libs?
I’m so SORRY Brendan
hehehehehehe
br
Actually im between gigs at the moment so searching me archives is as simple as a few keystrokes (im that twisted ive got bushfires “glen and his scraps of paper” post on my screensaver -makes me chuckle every time)
andrew
as regards the neocon cheer squad only glen and esj remain to take up the fight
and i think they havent figured what went wrong
yet
Shame on you Rudd. Shame on you. How dare you wedged the Coalitions on the Sorry to the Stolen Generations issue.
He’s playing with your mind, finn.
Everyone so far is in furious agreement yet Poster 13 has stumbled on another point worthy of the host’s attention: ‘taking up the fight’ needs a wider range of views ALLOWED on the threads, if only to permit feel good mocking by the decent and compassionate of any ‘neocon’ perspectives and/or other opinions at odds with a prevailing group think.
DC, I didn’t ban Steven Kaye for being a neocon. He can neocon it up all the way to Teheran for all I care. I banned him for being an obnoxious jerk (with an added penchant for misogynistic abuse thrown in for good measure). I’m actually more reluctant to ban jerks of the right than of the left (K Jin, for instance), because I very keenly feel the imbalance around here.
This is more or less an anti-Brendan Nelson thing than anything else. Malcolm Turnbull is infinitely more likeable, and I look forward to him taking out Nelson within the year.
WB #17,
Hear, hear! May you always strive for balance.
DC #18,
If Turnbull knows what he’s doing, he’ll wait until after the next election. At the rate Rudd’s going about ingratiating himself with the people (mostly by either fulfilling election promises or explaining why he isn’t), he’ll be a shoo-in in 2010.
Whoops, sorry Michael. I can get a little distracted sometimes – especially by good music, which I’m listening to right now.
To be fair to the Liberal supporters who were commenting on here during the campaign, there was some pretty wild speculation on the other side as well.
The truth as always sat somewhere in the middle. The Liberal base is still as secure as it was before the election.
Why would anyone consider remotely credible such a poll given how long last year Labor invariably polled high percentages on 2PP, only to see how “soft”, to employ a Morganism”, those Labor numbers really became as the election loomed at the start of Spring?
Didn’t matter a jot how out of touch the Howard government had become nor how incompetent the Coalition’s election campaign turned out (except for all the bribes for Howard’s solidly loyal base such as the private schools), Labor still couldn’t even crack 53%. Golly, Labor might have a fair shot at 54% if gormless Brendan Nelson is still the Opposition’s Leader next election, but I’m not falling for any more inflated Labor figures from any pollster, most particularly from Morgan.
Professor Higgins, a penny for your thoughts
Good one, Worm!
Dr Higgins,
Apparently Gary Morgan loves you too if this old home video is anything to go on.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CYXoYM48pI
The truth as always sat somewhere in the middle. The Liberal base is still as secure as it was before the election.
I’m not sure about this. Given the poll results for most of 2007, it’s amazing the Libs didn’t lose a few more seats. There were serious community concerns regarding a number of issues over the years, and the Coalition were not seen to be addressing these.
I think ALP supporters were well-acquainted to seeing their team snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and, as if by contagion, some of the Stephen Kaye and Nostradamus types picked up on this, and used it to construct ever more-elaborate comeback fantasies.
Still, I actually think there’s more room to analyse both this poll and the 2007 election from both sides of the political fence. This poll, for instance, has come amidst prophecies of international economic doom and gloom, yet there’s no evidence the masses are suddenly taken with penitence for voting ALP.
I see my comment has been sent to wordpress purgatory…
As much as figures like these please me, I have to say it is totally unlikely that they can occur in an election. The best ever results in elections is only going to get to 44-56 at the best. This is because about 40% of the population never votes labor and another 40% never vote Liberal (and not many vote Nationals no matter what).
It is amazing that Liberals can’t see the trees for the forest in the “sorry” debate. The moderates in the party are fuming at the lost chance to give an appearence of progressiveness. I wonder if this will this sink Nelson quicker than anyone else had predicted? End of March is my tip now.
What goes up eventually must come down
Bull butter…
All polls until March should be taken with a grain of salt IMHO.
Only if there is still another body to pull it back down.
your ego, your predictions?
or are you hoping for a reversal of your predictive powers starting…..NOW…
no wait….NOW…no wait…
Salted Bull Butter…
glen
besides the bull butter ,why do you think that the polls wont be relevant till march.
methodology?
honeymoon period?
with chips, and an extra horses ass
Hors d’œuvre
WB (17) A feisty response to my earlier joust but fair enough (sorry about that but I couldn’t let the opportunity pass). I respect your patience in monitoring threads populated by so much self indulgent and repetitive group think and you are quite correct ‘to keenly feel the imbalance around here’.
You guys DO realise that the polls DID narrow massively in the last month before the election, don’t you? Just like so many people said they would (whom were subsequently mocked)?
Final 2PP was 52.7-43.3, were any of the polls even near that during the year? I don’t think one predicted a result below 53. Most polls a month before that were in the 58 range.
Don’t worry, I don’t plan to argue the point, it is a waste of time. But I just thought I would point that out. Such is the privilege of the winners, they can overlook such annoying nuances, and history will be none the wiser.
Max,
I agree the polls did narrow a lot in the last few days, the Libs were successful in pulling back some of their soft vote, most of this in the final week of the campaign. But I’d say the mean poll figure for pre-election was 55-6% (a movement of five/six points), 58,59 were statistical outliers that were probably the result of the randomness of sampling.
Max, youre right, only the very last polls were 52/48. I wonder what caused the narrowing from 56/44 before the campaign?? Especially given how bad the coalitions campaign was
Stephen,
I suppose it depends on where you start ‘the narrowing.’ A few months before the polls were consistently around the 57-58 range – I’d have to look at Bryan’s graphs to figure out where that started to shift. I vaguely recall a newspoll in the first week of the campaign which was at 58-42, but agree that would have been an outlier. I do agree that that the polls consistently predicted that the result would tighten.
(my only point was to correct these boring chants of ‘the narrowing is a myth’ when it turned out to be correct, neither of which the two posters above me are guilty of.)
As to why the numbers hardened, I really have no idea, the campaign (bar the first few days which were brilliant) was completely hopeless. Having said that… it seemed to do the job.
The uncomfortable truth for many contributors on this website is that that there was a narrowing during the course of the campaign yet no one sensibly contends that the Coalition ‘won’ the campaign. There was an inevitability about victory for the Australian Labor Party from at least August 2007 (some might say earlier). For reasons not connected with decency, social justice and/or compassion, about 600,000 voters switched camps because they thought JWH had enjoyed a good go as prime minister and the other guy was a safe pair of hands. Queensland pride and a perception that workplace relations legislation was (unfairly) skewed in the employer’s favour, also played its part.
point = http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/01/31/a-plan-so-cunning-you-could-put-a-tail-on-it-and-call-it-a-weasel/#comments
Gusface,
I take that as a compliment. I can remember writing it, but can’t find it. Any clues?
BB
here in all its glory.
“Glen’s been in his room all day, moving little squares of paper he cut out of his Spiderman colouring-in book around on his desk.
They have names on them: “KRudd”, “Howard” “Costello”, “Newspoll”, “Swan”, “Burke”, “Campbell”, “Prosser” and many more.
Round and round they go. He tries butting them together in every possible combination, corner to corner, side to side top to bottom.
Doesn’t eat. Doesn’t sleep. Must work this out. Every now and again he thinks he’s onto something.
See, if KRudd talked to Burke BOURKE and Costello sacked Campbell… no that wouldn’t work. What about if Howard sacked Campbell and BOurke walked into room with Prosser… no… So there’s these three politicians… nope… [NT/Slf: this no joke… mst CONCENTRATE].
OK, he’s got it!
Costello wedge KRudd/ends up getting Howard to sack Campbell/Swan comes along/ruins all by being caught with Burke in bed with altar boy. But altar boy Anglican sooooo…. KRudd MUST have something going there too. Maybe likes legless altar boys??? [N.T.Slf… “legless a.boys? POSSIBLE?”]?
Meanwhile Nwspol 57/43: Labor ahead/landslide/000’s letter writers/bloggers say either don’t care abt. Burke or so angry/changing vote.
Ah ha! It’s all a leftist plot!
Cdnal Pell… [Pell —> Catholic —> McKewSOW —> KRudd??? XXX lk. into this…XXX… where does a.boy fit in???”] Pell chimes in with brill. abortion wdge. Abbott talks up Devil [Dvl wrshp??? Mst chk w. Op.Dei.].
At last! All the pieces fit together.
Writes post at Oz Politics. Gets told he’s crazy by leftie throng. Bk to drwing board.
Absolute classic!
Yes, the much-mocked narrowing did happen. However, it happened very, very slowly (perhaps one point per 6 weeks?) and didn’t really kick in hard until the very end of the campaign, by which time it was nullified by Jackie Kelly and other follies.
Then again, I don’t think anybody truly expected a 59-41 finish, despite all the polling.
I think we were all expecting a better Coalition campaign. We has listened so long to the standard narratives coming from the MSM that we really thought the Coalition would throw everything at that election, and that the ‘everything’ would be impressive. It wasn’t. Tax cuts, and a dog-whistle here and there. As far as Howard is concerned, it was hardly the campaign of a ‘master tactician’…
Growler, thanks heaps for the MFL excerpt, which is one of my favourites. How’d you do that?
I believe there was a “narrowing” during the election campaign as a couple of percent of voters who had been constantly telling pollsters that they would change their vote decided that they just couldnt bring themselves to do it. The question that should be analysed between now and the next election is what share of that percentage is wedded to the idea of supporting the status quo (and could probably be expected to now change their vote to the ALP), and what percentage is tied to the coalition by a rubber band that can be stretched but apparently cannot be broken.
I have a friend who has been a long term supporter of the Libs, but he had been disgusted by the politics of Howard and said all last year that he would not vote for the coalition. In the end he did vote for them, consoling himself that Howard would be gone anyway, and most of the more objectionable members would then leave rather than stay on in opposition. He now regrets his weakness for not making a stand against Howard, but acknowledges that he is a rusted on conservative.
How many of the late changers fall into each category, that is the question and the answer will determine the extent of the victory margin for the ALP at the next election.
Oh, thanks so much Gusface for your keepsake chest.
Bushfire Bill, the marvel of it all! Well do I remember that piece!
If we believe the polls then there was as dramatic swing back to the Coalition in the last 3-4 weeks. The result on the night, and perhaps the popular perception, was misguided by the better performance of the ALP at the booths relative to the postal etc votes. In the end it was not an overwhelming result. Perhaps this indicates the basically conservative nature of the electorate. Thus a barrage of what appeared to be hopelessly bad scare ads actually worked quite well.
From my view I saw an early effort to take on the Libs with the response Ads featuring Rudd. These seemed very effective and addressed the failure to counter Lib scare themes at previous elections, But that was it as far as the ALP was concerned. The union ads on he other hand seemed well targeted and assertive.
If we then look at the booth results there were many swings of 15-20% in workers areas in the suburbs and in industrial rural towns, but in the middle/upper class booths there was 0-5%. Indded in the classic doctors wives booth of Hunters Hill there was a small swing to the Libs.
The figures tell me that that the union campaign was very effective in returning the Howard battlers to the ALP. The Libs campaign was very effective at scaring back the shopkeepers and the ALP campaign sucked yet again.
The comfort factor for the ALP is that a Rudd government is unlikely to scare the horses so the conservative factor will favour the ALP the next time around.
As a matter of interest, Gusface, when was Bushfire Bill’s piece posted and under what thread, do you know?
I ask in the interests of William’s lost archival week. Which may have occurred when you were in the gulag and unable to post.
Maybe you have everything?
CW
06/03/07 on ozpolitics 56/44 newspoll thread comment by BB responding to various plots imagined by glen etc
no not every comment -only the pearlers (though my h/d was wiped ) my kids clunker (runs 95 BION) had quite a few saved pages/posts/emails
If we then look at the booth results there were many swings of 15-20% in workers areas in the suburbs and in industrial rural towns, but in the middle/upper class booths there was 0-5%. Indded in the classic doctors wives booth of Hunters Hill there was a small swing to the Libs.
The figures tell me that that the union campaign was very effective in returning the Howard battlers to the ALP. The Libs campaign was very effective at scaring back the shopkeepers and the ALP campaign sucked yet again.
Some interesting points. I agree, the ALP campaign wasn’t spectacular, it was simply a matter of the Coalition being worse.
The union campaign in Melbourne was largely targeted toward middle-class Deakin, which just got over the line. (Interestingly, in nearby Box Hill, almost every Asian store, bar one or two Coalition restaurants, had ALP posters up). On the other hand, the unions didn’t turn up in the parts of Melbourne that are genuinely poor (i.e. Broadmeadows, Sunshine, Dandenong, Lalor) yet these places voted ALP in an absolutely massive way.
Also, up in the NT, the Coalition was lucky to break into double figures in some booths. It says something about the ‘intervention’, in my opinion.
”Didn’t matter a jot how out of touch the Howard government had become nor how incompetent the Coalition’s election campaign turned out (except for all the bribes for Howard’s solidly loyal base such as the private schools), Labor still couldn’t even crack 53%.”
Maybe this is the result of the Cold war? So many Labor voters started voting Liberal/National/DLP after 1954, and their sons and grandsons continue to do the same now?
So, there was a narrowing, and poor hopeless Labor couldn’t crack 53%.
In fact, the Coalition didn’t really lose, they just came second …
Gusface, thank so for finding that
Bushfire, that was brillant,have a cookie
Professor Higgins @ 46,
Go to Youtube, type in My Fair Lady and scroll down till you find it.
Cheers
ahh-
memories of those golden pre-election days. Except Howard was still pm.
Does anyone knopw how Glen(s) repsonded to BB’s brilliant piece?
Quietly I would have guessed.
From memory, he ignored it.
Glen’s moved on since then. He donated his pieces of paper, his Spiderman coloring-in book and his plastic scissors to Don D’Cruz at IPA, who has since made good use of them.
“MASTER PLAN—–Threaten backing anti-W/Choices legisltn/ Business crawls bk to Lbrl/Prty / begs frgvness./Nelson hero/PM 2011./JST KIDDING!!!! [He! He!]/Alwys knew he cld do it./Mnwhle trap KRUDD in own web by making nice to Union thugs/ Cause CHAOS in ecomony [chk. spl???]/”IN CONFUSION IS PROFIT”/Ha! Ha! Maybe can strt wear ear-ring again???? No… too much like Lbrl/Prty election ad… msn’t scare horses/little chldrn /ladies in Wahroonga… “
Yes Bushfire, I recall that piece too, classic, had me in stitches at the time. Have you thought about making it into a tv series
But somehow you have gotta weave his first love Julie Bishop into the plot, dominatrix in black leather perhaps!
Kevinism charms China?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23146978-601,00.html
BB-
are you suggesting that (gulp) The Glen’s could be Nelson???????
Basil-
eeeyew ,as my 8 yr old would say.
its my fault Jen why Glen is not around much
A few nights ago He & I had a spirited debate about the Libs current leadership
and proceeded to denigrate Juli Bishop’s leadership skills vs Julia
at the time I was oblivious to Glen’s love for Julie Bishop
Glen is hurt his love star was criticised & I’m now very remorseful
Ron, don’t beat yourself up too much about it.
Glen’s having a hard time at present, and it’s made him a tad over sensitive.
(BTW, where did this fascinating exchange take place? I seem to have missed it).
Ron.
You should never mock such tender and true love. Shame on you. I myself have a similar but as yat unrequited passion for George Clooney.
thx Zoom , but my conscience over the Glen & Julie affair is bothering
Oh look. it’s Horatio Hornet with his telescope to his bad eye as the monstrous history of black Australia looms up close to him. Can he see it? Apparently not very well, even if Malcolm can.
In his inimitable style, and quoting slabs of that ‘gin rooter’ Xavier Herbert, Ramsay lashes Nelson to the mast and sails him through the straits of black and white histoy with the moral siren’s wailing:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/weasel-words-wont-hide-monstrous-shame/2008/02/01/1201801034773.html
…and Horatio still can’t seem to see it.
Lashed to his pole, (let’s call it the “White Armband” pole, so greatly championed by his moral midget predecessor) Horatio Hornet will have plenty of time to think about the other polls, and wonder why he’s still stuck at the bottom them.
But not for long. He’s headed for the rocks and the second in command will have no compunction in casting Admiral Hornet to the fishes.
but the crew ca not find ‘Turn on the Bull’ because he’s painted himself ‘black’
to win the indigenous vote
Jen, George Clooney in black leather, naaah.
Jen , if George knew such a fine’green’ damsel as thou was on this site , he would forsake McCain in a flash & support our Obama
RON.
Don’t tell me that George is supporting McCain!!! I was sure that he wsa a died-in the-wool Democrat.
My heart is broken … sob.
And Basil – infinitely preferrable to Julie Bishop.
Jen…I was merely highlighting how much George would swoon to such a fine ‘green ‘ damsel to cheer her heart…… IF he’d been a Republican
but you can rest easy , his mind & heart is with you ‘figuratively’
Ron,
I wish.
Kirribilli -
are you bringing your opponents with you, or has ESJ buggered off?
and Basil’s idea of black leather was the FINAL straw where I with great regret
broke Glen’s heart over Julie Bishop
I’m ashamed to admit I said to glen re his Julie love
even dolly downer in ghis black stockings would be sexier than julie
…how could I jen
76
Jen
Who can tell Jen? Last night he picked up his wet lettuce and ran home to mommy (for a good thrashing one supposes!).
He’ll probably pop up, wet lettuce in hand, waving it and snarling, but he’s so completely hot air it’s just amusing (mildly).
Talk about having deep pyschological problems and being let out in public!
One should pity, but hey, the tosser asks for everything he gets.
Ron,
I would have to agree with you on the Downer/Bishop camparison.
(I’ve always had a bit of a thing for Alex: – perhaps it’s striking resemblance to George C.)
Actually, this is not so much a test of Nelson’s leadership but more the followship within the non Labor side of politics. If Nelson can get his side to agree to the wording of a meaningful apology, then it is a great outcome for Australia. He will have made a valuable contribution to confronting a nasty side of our progress as a nation and give us all the opportunity to move on.
This is far too important an issue to be bogged down in petty party politics and puerile point scoring by the commentariat.
To me an apology needs to be heartfelt and unconditional. An apology decided on Party lines should not be the aim here.
Good luck Dr Nelson.
Not to mention his Richard Burton-like voice.
Used to have me swooning in his lateline interviews.
God, I miss him.
I can almost understand why Jen
Dolly announced yesterdat he’ll be will be doing peaking tours in his black stockings for his fans so perhaps you can get a ticket before they all sell out
Alright GG-
back to a serious matter:
Nelson’s equivocation and non-committment to the Apology to indigeneous Australians is a complete rerun of the Howard goverment’s appalling attitude to this issue by appealing to the base elements of parochialism and racism.(’they’ll want to take our land and bleed us dry with compensation claims. And anyway – we were just doing what was best for them, the ingrates’).
Wouldhave though the libs would have got the message by now.
82
Ron
Dolly “peaking”?
hmmm, I’d pay to see that!
83
Jen
It’s pretty bottom of the barrell stuff, but that’s where poor Horatio finds himself, with most of his support from the sludge-meisters, and he can’t ignore their grip on him.
Oh, how deliciously sad for the admiral.
Well at least the Admiral is getting ‘advice’ from the whispering article clerk
so Horatio now knows its gotta come from the heart…..what inspirational words
Nelson – what a leader…
Faced with the prospect of a lack of support he throws his hands up in the air so he can claim ‘wasn’t my fault’ later.
I don’t doubt that a large part of the population doesn’t want Sorry, but has Abbott not worked out that these hot heads change their political support at the drop of a hat to support their own selfish status quo?
The inability to avoid the wedge, even when it’s pointing directly at them, is intellectually laughable.
Nelson/Leader?
Hahahahhahhahhah
maybe Nelson should be referred to as LP ’spokesman’.
Skokesman – you know, the guy corporations employ to announce and take the shit from the press…
89
personally, I like The Lamb-
as in sacrificial.
onimod , you seek to see a leader in the Admiral but all there is is pebbles of sand blowing in the wind
with Spiderman building his fire for Jen’s lamb sacrificial
90
you mean the stuff that should have been consumed on Australia Day.
hahaha.
Nelson reminds me of the ‘good looking vacuous guy’ type used in US sitcoms – pretty harmless and seemingly oblivious to the laughs he causes. J Bishop is the corresponding dumb blonde. I’m struggling to find the smart geeky boy/girl who always saves the day – it’s definitely not Aquaman. I don’t think this show will get much past pilot stage.
It seems pretty obvious to me – Kev needs to clean up education, and fast, and then hang on till the kids get through. Seeing Oz follow a European civilisation trend by a decade or more it’s really not hard to work out what the next move is.
Where was Kev posted and for how long….?
onimod
Vacuous, yes, but Good Looking?????
As my 8 year old would say….
onimod , yep …you have soundly defined the Admiral’s “qualitys”
yes Jen that ‘good looking’ can only apply to your George
must fly for a while…enjoy your afternoon fellow spirits
I said he played the type – not that it fitted perfectly…
As I also said – I think this one’s over after pilot season, or should be…
The problem with politics is that’s it’s not rational – the population at large reads so much more into these people than they can possible contain themselves.
The thing that gets me – I think I’ve raised it here before – is who the hell is advising these guys?
Why in a nation of 300 million can’t George W find a speech writer?
Why in a nation of 20 million can’t the liberals make a friend with someone who drinks a couple of pints in a pub on Friday afternoons?
onimod-
because he’s a liberal.
circular aargument.
The next election is shaping up nicely for a Brackslide.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/02/saturday-forum-labor-whose-party-is-it.html
No wonder Julia had the confidence to beat up on the limp celery during the campaign…
No wonder they were so shameless in exploiting the public advertising budget…
I do wonder why it took the ALP so long to get organised though.
Is there aby truth at all to the rumour that Nelson wants to try and emulate Rudd’s “Kevin 07″ campaign and is planning on running wtih the slogan “Bren 10″?
99
as in: he thinks he’ll still be the leader in 2 years?
Hahahahhahahahahahhahahhahahhhahhahahahhahahah
Ron @ 82 said:
Dolly announced yesterdat he’ll be will be doing peaking tours in his black stockings for his fans so perhaps you can get a ticket before they all sell out
I’m not surprised. Seems Lord Downer of Mayo has fallen on hard times. He’s just put his ‘modest’ log cabin on the market. He’s trying to put on a brave face by claiming he and the missus just want to downsize now they’re empty nesters, but I know not all the kids have in fact left home.
It’s a pity they hung Saddam. I’m sure he would have been delighted to return previous favours by making a sizable contribution to poor ol’ Dolly’s relief fund.
And it seems that he’s not the only former Howard minister hurting. I understand a few are finding it hard to manage now they’ve had a $90,000 pay cut. $127,600 doesn’t go as far as it used to, especially with all that inflation thingy that Kevin07 is causing!!
Could it be that Glen’s frequent absences are because he’s taken on a second job to help his heroes out in their time of need? Must be hard to type and flip burgers at the same time.
PS: I’ve not seen it myself, but Milord’s modest cabin may not be all that modest. He’s rumoured to have already knocked back a $1.1 mil offer.
ominod @95
Because they’d be drinking schooners, pots or midi’s at the local pub/club/bowlo/razzle – pints would be too inner-city (depending on your inner-city!).
But seriously, it depends on who you’re pitching too. The shenanigans in Lindsay are just what I would have thought would have cooked up at the local pub, and given the current fuss about muslim schools and hindu temples in Sydney’s south-west might even have played out positively in Macarthur (coz Pat Farmer needs all the help he can get!). That’s certainly unfair to the bulk of people who live in Lindsay and Macarthur, but seems to typify the kind of bravado and opinion expressed at too many pubs etc on a Friday afternoon/evening.
On another matter – anybody have any ideas about the next NSW poll to come out? Newspoll seemed to have every other state but no NSW. Iemma’s not up for a while, but we now have the electricity privatisation appearing to spark a revolt internally, so I’m more than curious about the public response.
102 Stewart J
sorry – you’re taking me with an American slant, and I’m Australian.
I’m not being literal about the pub and pints. In fact I wouldn’t know first hand what happens in a pub…
Politicians in general seem to be so genuinely disconnected from reality where honest people call it as it is, instead of couching everything in spin.
I’ve been told that Annabel Crab is a good measure of the past week.
Hopefully this post will end the line of dozens of silly ones preceding it.
The poll once again shows the popularity of Rudd. He still shines, the people still think much of him. How do interest rates / economy / SG apology come in? What do people think of that?
I think it’s mostly Rudd’s slick smiling face and the reprehensible Nelson, as I’ve said before.
Further to my 80, the following gem confirms real movement on the Lib side. Good for them because it is certainly good for Australia.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23144204-601,00.html
Is that so, Mayoferal, about Dolly?
Falling on hard times.
I’ll be at a party tonight, what a nice topic to discuss.
Hope the Bridgewater Mill survives without ‘our’ largesse, Dolly’s favourite caf. Not that Le holds anything but disgust for him and his.
PS. I was invited to a party at Mt Barker for tonight, in a Lair of Libs, which thankfully I had to decline, in view of one of the niece’s 30th, at Brighton. No concerns about majority at this venue.
But how lovely it could have been, at Mayo, in view of this information.
104 Michael
What do I think?
I think that’s a pretty limited analysis.
What do you think was being discussed before?
If you want to be simplistic, then interest rates are a bit of a non-issue since the emperor(s) has been revealed – it’s not like anyone in this country can do much about it now given the way the economy has been managed for the last decade; the sorry speeches are being pulled out of the drawer after being drafted just over a decade ago. The only reason sorry is even an issue is that the media has nothing but the libs bumbling on this issue (and the cricket) to talk about right now. The Rudd government is just getting the job of enacting election promises done in a very business like fashion.
I don’t think smiling has a lot to do with it at this point – it’s not like we’re approaching an election or anything.
If anyone feels like a small laugh on the side, go here http://blogs.news.com.au/news/splat/index.php/news/comments/john_howard_apologises_unreservedly_to_the_aboriginal_people/ and have chortle.
The quote is from a speech in 2000 made by “John Howard” – the actor – making an apology speech to the aborigines.
Half the Wingnuts don’t realise it and are making “the media covered this up… typical”, “the abos are only after the money” , “Rudd is all spin…” etc. type comments.
Hilarious in its own understated way.
BB
Truly incredible
but then WA (where most of the morons posting their bile originate)
did stay with the Rodent.
maybe they will “mature” next fed election
The narrowing that has occurred in the most recent poll IS real, and you need to look at it from the fact that it also has an in-built seven-point bias to Labor on two party preferred. Committing to an apology has not done Labor any favours; the vast majority of mainstream Australia opposes such a concept.
Re 101 MayoFeral
So, Lord Downer is finding it hard to Keep Up Appearances on his reduced stipend. A Liberal economic whizz – and he didn’t have the gumption to save money for the hard times he knew were coming after the election.
Are Libbos really that smart with money, or is it all a carefully constructed myth? … Wait, don’t bother, I think I know the answer!
Parlaiment hasn’t sat yet, which means in effect the new government has not taken their seats on the Government side of the house.
I just can’t wait to see them – Abbott, Costello, the Bishop’s,
Downer, Ruddock, et al, (and not Howard: because He Lost His Seat), on the Opposition Benches.
The reality has not even begun to sink in for The Coalition of HasBeens.
Nostradamus- forget it .
You guys haven’t even begun to feel your irrelevance.
114
jen
Is that a wee bit of advance gloating I detect there? LOL
114 Jen, I can see it now, Dolly Downer sitting in the back stalls knitting a tasteful pair of fishnets because his last sprung a snag dancing with Madeleine Not-too-bright; Ruddock reclining so thoroughly that you’d think he was not the walking dead any longer; Bronnie peeking into the makeup mirror to check the strength of the latest product her hairdresser has slipped her (under the counter); Costello practising his rogueish smile, the one that’s he’s mislaid somewhere under Tanya’s copy of ‘Clancy and the Overflow’ ; and where’s Unka Howie, Glen’s mentor and the meaning of it all? Oh it’s all too tragic….
if there is a full ’sorry’ , are we then reconciled as one Country
with a disadvantaged group of white & black Australians needing practical solutions
or will we continue to be 2 nations of peoples…the original inhabitants & the colonialists
Apres@116
not forgetting
abbott praying that someone,anyone, thinks he has a heart;Jovial joe hockey wondering wether anyone will notice he been taking chunks out of abbott as they pass in the corridors;chris pyne wondering what all the fwuss and fwanfare wegarding wudd is,i mean weally!;Minchin trying desperately to stop anyone using pennypinching as in”minchin pennypinching” and not forgetting blondie bishop desperately hoping no-one will realise Nelson is dagwood bumstead
ps King Malcolm will be refining his famous double act-derail the republic(again) and the liberal leadership (again)
cant wait
117
I can’t see a lot changing overnight, but let’s hope we do become one country so we can all get on and build a decent nation for us all to live in.
Finger crossed it’s a good speech – anyone know who is in on the drafting?
But Gusface, will blondie bishop be able to continue to make her points of order
in the house with such an authorative air
Ron
my guess is she will resort to hypnotising them
111 Nostradamus – I don’t know why you think there will be a backlash for Labor. Firstly, people voted Labor in knowing they were going to do this and secondly half the Libs agree with Labor. Wrong again hey old boy?
as she is a strong supporter of the Admiral , perhaps she may use her hypnotising skills on his enemy Spiderman from Wentworth or would that be water of a ducks (spiders) back to him
Mr Bowe, is nostrils really back or are you making it up as you go along, as usual? Reaches for pinot grigio…and zimmer frame…oops
I would have thought that a civil post, whether we agree with the sentiments expressed or not, would at worst be met with civil argument, or be ignored.
I don’t see the need for expletives or personal attack unless it is provoked.
I have never agreed with a sentiment expressed by Nostradamus, but I feel an apology is owed to him.
Anyone up to saying sorry, or is that now a word reserved for political expediency?
The abusive comment to which FS refers, by Apres, has been deleted.
I think Nelson must try to get his party to unite behind the apology.
Whatever the merits of the apology, it’s a done deal, and an apology that is given, but not supported by all parties, is really going to leave a sour taste in the mouth.
William. You have mention that you feel the imbalance here at PB as far as bloggers input go’s between left & right point of view & the lack of right wing thinking bloggers. May I suggest you put out an invitation on coalition websites to recruit such types in order to re balance the perceived imbalance that you have mentioned. Glen & ESJ & co carry enough of the weight I’m sure. We need to stir the pot!
William. Any thoughts?
Actually onimod @ 108, I think Michael (104) is spot-on, although the adjective for Nelson is probably more “ineffectual” than anything else.
No-one’s been taking any notice of whether Rudd’s keeping promises or not, they’ve been more interested in what Harbajhan said to Symonds, or how Heath died, or …
Rudd just seems like a nice bloke and has done a few sensible things. And most of the uncommitteds are willing to give him a fair go.
Aussieguru re: 127
Most right wing blog commentors went to ground after that landmark day of 24 November (in some cases, even before). A lot to do with their pre-election bombastic bravado I suspect.
Those who are still around to carry the can tend to be more irrational than ever, shrill, mendacious and ungracious in defeat.
Still, it could be ‘interesting’ if any want to venture on over…
The Queensland Liberal Party’s State Council meets today with Opposition Leader Springborg urging them to consider amalgamation with the Queensland Nationals.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/springborg-gives-libs-a-hurry-up/2008/02/02/1201801103161.html
Sadly Rx,
Many posters/commenters see politics as a football game, ie my team wins your team loses.
It is also clear that there is a preponderance of people who favour the one football team, ie Labor. Coupled with this is an attitude that anyone who supports the other football team is immoral or stupid. Hence you often see refers to Repugs or other condescending references to the Liberals.
The reality is in recent months many of the more reasoned voices have either left the blog or have scaled back them comment. You do not see Hugo, LTEP, Dovif, Adam for example post comments much these days?
When you are convinced of the moral superiority of a political position that intolerance tends to kill debate or interesting thought or comment, in many respects the intolerant howard haters are in the ascendant on this blog and that is unfortunate.
I for one have commented that I thought Rudd was off to a great start but it would be sad if the one correct and acceptable position was to genuflect before his totem pole two months into the term.
Not a single parliamentary sitting day yet and already Labor is being blamed for an alleged (and maybe real, for all I know) downturn in the economy simply because they’re there.
What a beautiful argument: “You can’t elect Labor because they’ll ruin the economy. No matter how good it was when they got in, they’ll trash it.”
It’s in line with Howard’s “Interest rate will always be lower under the Coalition”. No need for (indeed no possibility of) proof. Untestable. A pure assertion to be planted in the minds of slow thinkers who (the Coalition hopes) are now in the throes of buyer’s remorse.
It’s plain now that howard let the election go so long and so late because he was hoping for a downturn. nd he nearly got one. The Sub-Prime mortgage fiasco started and the fizzled. It actually worked against him… everything seemed to be fixed so quickly, the punters thought we were impregnable… and so voted for Labor.
But as it becomes clearer and clearer that we were not ready and prepared for a downturn, that our schools, hospitals and higher education infrastructure had been ground down into the dust to preserve Howard’s war chest for more important things like baby bonuses, a new brick dunny for the Oodnagarlarbie Footy Club oval and $6 million to construct a Benny Elias wing for the Rugby League Hall of Fame, the penny will drop. Howard strung it out too long, issued too many bribes to too many disparate groups, played too many sections of society off against each other while the nation wore out from lack of maintainence. All Costello ever did was fine tune the Ferrari (a tweak here, a dab of oil there) when he should have retired the old racing car and invested in a new one that might be equipped to win races into the future.
Labor hammering this point home might be a good political tactic, but it also happens to be true: Howard let the country run to ruin, hoping for a miracle which never came.
I spoke to a young woman yesterday who said she thought “Rudd is a weenie”. When I pressed her as to what she meant she articulated her frustration that Rudd didn’t go around “telling people what to do.” Instead, she claimed, he asked people what he should do. She was 7 when Howard was elected, and all she knows is that Prime ministers threaten other people, purge their enemies and wisely come up with Murray-Darling-type plans off the back of an envelope and announce them suddenly “because otherwise the other side will find out about it and critiise it.” Oh my God, what have we come to when to consult and take advice means you’re “a weenie”?
This will be Howard’s legacy: the country has become, in the opinion of many who know nothing else, an extension of the PM’s mind. The prejudices, the crackpot ideas, the desperate policy ambushes – from Work Choices to Aboriginal Intervention – that characterized Howard’s last three years, all to the detriment of good governance, are how a nation should be run.
Humiliate the bastards Kevin & Co. There’s no time for polite discussion at the margins of things that might have been done better by Howard’s mob. Drag out every possible scandal and blunder they made (and there are plenty). If Howard’s Way is allowed to stand, or even to be only nibbled at, there’s a whole generation out there who’ll think you’re just a bunch of weenies.
Labor has won the war. Now they need to win the peace.
ESJ @132,
Once again, I find myself in violent agreement with the sentiments expressed. A few of the bloggers here have been supping at the keg of victory a bit long and seem on very good terms with themselves (morally superior, more knowledgeable, convinced of the supremacy of their own intellect).
While I like a degree of sledging and piss taking that can be feature of this blog, I too am disappointed at the intolerance represented by some of the comments. Repetitive abuse and 10,000 words without an editor do not make a debate.
Poll Bludger will live or die by the amount of spirited contributions made by as big a range of opinions as possible.
See you on the Blogging Boards!
Apologies if this has already been discussed but I was wondering about the size of both parties primary votes. It must have been a long time since Labor has gotten 49% of the primary vote in any poll. Can anyone fill me in on when that last happened?
Similarly, while 36% for the coalition is a large Labor lead, it means that the total for all minors plus undecided is only 15%. I would have thought that was low in recent years. Again, any knowleedge of how that compares.
Assuming that these are indeed unusually large shares of Labor support and low minor party votes, I will take a guess on why: now that we have finally seen some movement from both parties on several issues (climate change, apology, troops in Iraq) it presumably cuts into the minor parties support share that is basically a protest vote.
The next question is what does this mean? So just as people are talking (realistically IMO) about a Liberal – National Party merger, is it time for the minors to do the same? Should the Greens and Democrats finaly bury the hatchet and try to merge? Likewise, is there any point having a “climate change coalition” separate to the Greens?
and GG (the Ann Coulter of PB) has not sinned here , let alone our mini ‘rodent’
as reps of exclusive bretheren , many a ‘compliment’ u’ve showered me with
& with I guess a sadistic smile to wit.
the moral high ground is indeed in the eyes of the beholder
ESJ 132 and GG 134
I agree with your comments; there is a need for balance. I would make two comments though. Firstly, a backlash against the Liberals is understandable, given that they were frankly, a most unprincipled government and they certainly played the game hard against their opponents. When a government can have members carrying on like Senator Heffernan’s smear against Justice Kirby, or Kevin Andrews’ unlawfull use of his powers against Dr Haneef, and not punish the guilty in any way (both still in parliament at our expense), they should be thankful they are only disparaged and not incarcerated. So it is a bit like the schoolyard bully crying to teacher when someone fights back for Libs to complain too much now. We should have reasoned debate, but both sides have to come up with constructive comments for that to happen. Lets face it, there are trolls on both sides.
Second, the long term consequences of a lack of balance are very harmfull for all concerned. Having grown up in Joh-era Queensland I saw what lack of a competent opposition (Labor under Keith Wright and his cronies) could do to a government. Inevitable success led to arrogance, then corruption and finally downfall. I don’t want to see that happen to Rudd, and anyone who knows his past as head of the Qld Office of Cabinet under Goss kows it is possible. Similarly just as I was opposed to Howard and delighted to see him go, I also think that Labor state governments under Iemma and Bracks deserve the boot. Beatty should have lost too but the opposition was unelectable and I haven’t yet formed an opinion on Anna Bligh.
So yes I agree, we need balance and we need a debate about real ideas. But for the former to happen,I suspect a few apolgies are required, and for the latter to happen, lets hear the ideas concerned. If you put those ideas up, you will get an honest respnse from me and a few others here too I think.
regards
ESJ – “Hence you often see refers to Repugs or other condescending references to the Liberals.” That’s all well and good ESJ but haven’t you referred to Rudd as Krudd? Say no more.
GB,
Yes I did and I also referred to Howard as the rodent but I (after a comment from someone else on this blog) considered the practice and thought it was unworthy and ceased doing so in August of last year.
139 Edward StJohn – Well, I commend you on that and agree with you.
Socrates
thought you were alittle hard on Bracks re his record net of mistakes.Yemma yep
thought you were alittle soft on 132 & 134 on 2 grounds
Firstly, as we Labor people after 11 Howard years are entitled to our 5 seconds of joy & indeed gloating.
After 2004 , how many Libs were tut tutting
Secondly, my #136 was trying to softly say that these 2 who compaineth of being heavily sledged are 2 of the greatest sinners (as am I)
It is like the school boy bully complaining to the Teacher when one of the bully’s victims stands up to that bully
‘balance’ surely is in the eyes of the beholder & as this is a ‘left’ blog what would one expect. Go to Andrew Bolt or Piers & you get more ‘right’ views
Yes lets be done with it – why not a name change, I suggest “Poll Bludger’s Socialist Forum”
oh , so the issues in #141 are too difficult
ESJ @142
Unworthy. As a Green I come to this blog to lookand learn regarding what’s happening on the hustings, the polls and in politics generally. I hope it to be moderately objective and certainly informative. Dissenting views should be tolerated, if not accepted. While I am obviously happy that Howard is no longer PM, I see a much longer road in building a compassionate, forward thinking and ultimately ecological society. Kevin Rudd is but a first (small) step. Unfortunately, Iemma/Costa in NSW is not.
On another note, any ideas on the next NSW state poll? And on a further note, I see that Romney is romping home in Maine.
I refer to Kevin Rudd *affectionately* as “kruddy” or the “kruddmeister”.
I don’t consider it derogatory, more of a nickname. I don’t see people from any side of politics using “krudd” or “kruddy” as being derogatory.
“Hey, Jimbo, how the f— are ya? Wanna come down the pub with me and Kruddy and have some beers?”
Sure Peter,
I think its very Australian to take the pi.s out of politicians and names like the rodent reflect our irreverent national self-image.
The point isnt about the name as much as the repetitive nature of the comments reflect an intolerant self-righteous attitude which I would humbly suggest most Australians find a huge turn-off too.
Having said that I think to actually fight your way into being an elected PM is an enormous achievement and every one is entitled to a basic level of respect.
Stewart J , think any sort of credible Opposition leader may see Yemma go
Peter , the language you used in your last paragraph is at odds with
the ‘Rodent’ supporters sensitivities who were complaining about being sledged
As I said earlier
It is like the school boy bully complaining to the Teacher when one of the bully’s victims stands up to that bully
Ron,
Tissue Boxes to you too!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHVMxBkW0CQ
ah , the Ann Coulter of PB has surfaced from the shadows
actually peeps
the thing is that the political dynamic has changed-forever.
no longer the “boys club” of the enlightened ones,the real people are able to voice their opinion,sometimes sarcastically and sometimes passionately BUT it is their opininions,not some drivel delivered by 3rd rate hacks.
I was a liberal voter(so was mrs g and her family-but neveer eveer again tahnks worstchoices) who still maintains links with liberals-in the main great people bitterly disillusioned by howards dictatorial style reign as regards the “machine” thanks bill heffernan.They will return,hopefully more compassionate etc-then and only then will i even consider voting for the libs
so now in 2008 what do we have
simply put a gradually return to our TRUE core values.
BTW Rudd has announced a National Forum in april to plan ahead (2020 i think)
ALL political leaders at both state and federal level will be invited plus 1000 other experts,Nation Building i think you call it
Gusface , your correction (”peeps”) is appreciated
guess the policy question is whether the overall liberal philosophy behind workchoices (ie. let each worker negotiate his own conditions individually as part of a free market place) is still part of the Liberal party
or whether the Libs will genuinely embrace collective bargaining based on productivity ?
Me thinks most right-wingers are more fond of rules and order then your average left-wingers. The right-wingers will tend to cling to more established sites such as news.com.au and all their reactionary demigods, where as the lefties are more willing to see what else is out there as they are unhappy with what is offered them by the mainstream media.
The Poll Bludger is a open forum for debating politics, on here you live and die by your arguments. That is what scares right-wingers I think, on here they don’t own the game.
844
Ron Says:
February 3rd, 2008 at 10:36 am
Got to go out but thought I’d reblog this from the other site to get discussion going for williams finance
….now that I’m going , the Rodents lurking in the dark can now come out of their closet …the Ann Coulter of PB and Pompous Toff
Steve , you’ve expressed the sentinment the clearest in #839
The blog should be put on a reasonable financial footing so it can continue
My concern was not with Centre’s intentions but with the flawed execution of him actually being a Bookie on this site (or to be more accurate a 1/2 Bookie)
ie. liable for the total of notional winning bets less notional losing bets
my blog 832 explains the detail why Centre was wrong to claim minimal losses
WOULD be incurred by the ‘Bookie’ & why a Bookie is inappropriate
Therefore Centre’s idea belongs in the dust bin and we should endeavour to bounce around practical ideas tp make the Poll Bludgers site viable.
(which could involve bragging rights & varying “”class’s” of a ‘Rodent’ award)
The issue has been raised previously but ignored by William. If an alternative method of making financial contributions can be organised then I will be happy to help out. As it stands, PayPal won’t accept my credit card.
William,
Fair’s fair. If one is not allowed to play the man then you would delete Ron’s post at 153 or allow me to administer an appropriate smackdown!
ESJ. Calm down old boy. Bitch slapping is so passe!
Guys, I need your help!
Could you check out my 867 post on the previous thread please!
ESJ, there’s no equivalence between Ron’s comment and yours.
TW, I’m not aware of any reputable alternative to PayPal that’s worth the paperwork. What’s it doing when you submit your credit card details?
144
I believe that most Australians share in your hopes for the future, that is the issue that will unite us so we can move forward as one to develop this nation in a responsible manner.
On another note…is this Sunday confessions???
Gee, what gets me is that you guys are very intelligent and maybe William should post some threads on maybe the social or economic issues and these could be discussed in the manner of coming to some sort of solution.
Honestly guys…I think we need something like this between the elections.
Think about it William.
I’m wondering if a merger between the Queensland Nationals and Liberals work out, that the Nationals and Liberals on a federally and in other states will merge as well.
Tristan ideally they should merge at a Federal Level first thus avoiding the problem of having Warren Truss the leader of the Federal National Party yet a member of a different Queensland Conservative Party.
The merger in Qld has so much momentum that is hard to see how it can be stopped. From the 7.30 report last night we learn from National Party MLA Ray Hopper, that the Nationals will merge with the Liberals, even if they have to do so without the Liberals!
” MARK WILLACY: Dalby, on Queensland’s Darling Downs, is National Party heartland. Like Barnaby Joyce, National State member Ray Hopper is a believer in the gospel of merging.
RAY HOPPER: We are going to make it happen. If the Libs don’t want to come onside, we are going to go without them…”
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2152385.htm
William 158 – too right there is no equivalence.
162
I believe a new political force has to be created to cast off the past.
A new charter has to be written to establish the new identity to ensure a viable option for the electorate in the future.
I think they should act for the sake of democracy.
William, I believe the problem is I had a PayPal account years ago which I let lapse. For some reason they have gone and blocked my card from their system so it can never be used again.
Perhaps if you set up a Poll Bludger bank account we can transfer contributions directly into that account?
nostra, I’d comment on how ridiculous your post is but I recognise that you are a double agent troll, a Labor supporter that posts to make Coalition supporters look stupid
For Ron @ 153,
The Coulter of No Regret:
THERE was postings on the network, and the word had passed around
That the “Coulter of No Regret” had posted once again,
And had upset the wild bluff bloggers of the left— he was worth a thousand jibes,
So all the crackpots had gathered to the fray.
All the tried and noted whingers with their cyber pseudos near and far
Had mustered at their keyboards overnight,
For the bludgers love their sledging where the Bill Bowe bloggers are,
And the lurkers like to giggle with delight.
With deepest of deepest apologies to the Banjo
The Queensland Liberals have snubbed merger talks with the Nationals in favour of chasing votes at the local level.
State Liberal Party president Warwick Parer rejected any immediate talks on forming a coalition, saying they would be delayed until after the local government elections next month…
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/qld-libs-put-merger-talks-on-backburner/20080203-1pst.html
152
TurningWorm, I read Poll Bludger primarily for the links to the polls, and his reading of the tea leaves. I enjoy it very much.
If there was more discussion on psephology and the electoral landscape (and the Lib-Nat amalgamation issue is a good example), you might find more conservatives participate in the discussions.
DIY, OV, DIY.
Indeed, TurningWorm, and a good point – but you did ask why not many conservatives participate in the site much.
Personally I enjoy William’s links on the polls, redistributions etc. I’m not particularly interested in PB as a “open forum for debating politics”. That’s not to say that this site doesn’t have value for those who wish to use it to do so. It’s just not what I’m looking for here, and I daresay other conservatives who read this site probably share this view.
But back to your worthwhile point – what do you think will be the results of the Queensland redistribution?
133
Bushfire Bill
Crikey BB, do I detect a dose of passion? LOL
If you like your passion served cold, like revenge, when the corpse is cold (but only just!), then you’ll probably enjoy this eulogy for Paddy McGuinness by Bob Carr:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23129013-7583,00.html
…as it puts the whole ‘cultural warrior’ brigade firmly in the front of the phalanx that was Howard’s ultimate defeat.
Delicious!
There’s also another more fawning one, more grotesquely fulsome and baroque from that other rotund champion of conservatism Christopher Pearson, but believe me, it’s pure high camp sycophancy.
OV, I haven’t a clue on the subject other than it seems the population growth in QLD means it will pick up a seat. Please share your views with us. Promise I won’t bite as long the words Krudd, hell, hack or rot aren’t mentioned in relation to the Labor party.
Occasional Visitor,
I can asure you Glen is a strong Liberal bloger here & regular.
He has a genuine go at policys & politics & is respected for it , although he does get teased over his love affair for Julie Bshop & Downers black stocking routine
whereas others are neocons. rarely getting into policy or politics but snipe instead & so get return fire…but not from a gentile soul like I
BB @ 133,
Labor being blamed for things that go wrong? – it’s the burden of Government.
Not much point in whingeing about it – in my experience most people want to blame “them” for most things, and the Federal Government is the biggest and most obvious “them” to pick on.
Anyway BB,
This Government is well and truly still in the honeymoon phase. Best to just enjoy it while it lasts.
suppose as soon as Governments make decisions , someone or group is going to be unhappy Dyno
hope the ’sorry’ , the schools laptops program go well & inflation is controlled
Is Her Majesty’s opposition asking for the wording of the apology anything like PM Howard being asked for the wording of the WorkChoices legislation?
Glen Milnes article. I am not usually a big fan. But I hope there is momentum within the Liberal Party to support the Apology.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23153230-33435,00.html
ON the apology, if you really wanted to put Rudd on the spot, you would come out as Nelson and say an apology is fine but lets give it real meaning and not make it an empty gesture call for a compensation package with it.
If Nelson did that I believe it would expose the essential hypocrisy of Labor on this issue.
ESJ,
It seems you only equate “real meaning” with “monetary compensation”. Symbolism is not necessarily an empty gesture.
The recent SA case demonstrates that compensation can be achieved through the legal process.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23143865-5006787,00.html
Sure GG, but if you were Nelson you could say we all know this will be followed up in the courts lets show real leadership and keep the courts out of it by setting up a compensation fund,
“It begins, I think, with the act of recognition. Recognition that it was we who did the dispossessing. We took the traditional lands and smashed the traditional way of life. We brought the disasters. The alcohol. We committed the murders. We took the children from their mothers. We practised discrimination and exclusion. ”
An excerpt from Paul Keating’s Redfern speech
10/12/1992
Where were the massive compensation claims that followed this? It didnt happen. Compensation issue is a non-issue. Disagree with the apology if you want but dont fall for the compensation beat-up.
180 Edward StJohn – so let’s play party politics with the “Sorry” issue. Lovely attitude ESJ. That’s been the problem with the Libs for the last 11 years.
Last night SBS featured Cathy Freeman’s ancestry on Who Do You Think You Are. Among the sadder incidents was her mother showing Cathy a letter she had to write to the government asking permission for her and her husband to visit their relatives for Christmas. Permission was refused without explanation. This wasn’t a hundred years ago, but just a couple before Cathy was born!
Another, was a letter written by Cathy’s great grandmother to the ‘Protector’ of Aborigines asking why she could no longer draw on her husband’s wage. The department wrote back that it had decided to look after the money. Apparently, they still are. The kicker in the story is that Cathy’s great grandfather was a trooper serving with the 11th Light Horse in the Mid East at the time, fighting to preserve freedom for others. Freedom which he never had, or would have.
Cathy’s maternal grandparents were sent to the penal colony on Palm Island because the grandfather refused to sign a work agreement, even though he wasn’t legally required to. Wonder if this is where JWH got the idea for AWAs from?
And some twist their knickers about saying ‘Sorry’!
Hillsong backs Gold Coast Mayoral candidate
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23154340-3102,00.html
ESJ #180,
Would this not instead expose the hypocrisy of the Liberal Party for all to see, as well as annoying the Nationals? After all, the same Liberals who would be pushing for compensation in your scenario were the same people who, on the opposite side of the House, were decrying an apology because it would “open the floodgates to billions in compensation”? If Rudd wants to prove them wrong by giving an apology sans compo, that appears to me to be a moderate position on his part.
Steve 185, Thanks for the link. Isnt it amazing that Hillsong earns $50 million a year and it is all tax free? I think some Christian churches, by so openly joining the political fray are going to be in for a lot more scrutiny in the future.
#183 Harold, folks just don’t want to apologise but they don’t want to be seen as “mean & tricky”, to use a familiar phrase. Hence they argue about a non-issue, as you say, of compensation.
Money has a stupid way of making people worried.
#187, speaking of Hillsong and their millions, last night (or this morning, whichever way you look at it) I couldn’t sleep and was reading a book with the TV on in the background when I realised that dopey galoot Benny Hinn was in Venezuala mumbling mumbo jumbo to the masses who were mumbling mumbo jumbo (and gee, didn’t they look soooo happy! *sarcasm*), and a little note at the bottom of the screen invited people to go to his site and read his letter about his financial accountability. This was a response to recent demands from Senators wanting to know just how much money various televangelists receive are being spent on charity and how much are spent on maintaining a more-than-comfortable lifestyle. http://www.bennyhinn.org/finances/default.cfm
His letter made me really annoyed.
GB (184) I don’t know about the sarcasm directed at ESJ; however, I think you have mentioned a valid point. There really is, as I see it, no utility for the Coalition playing ‘party politics’. Indeed, a perception of being mean spirited and pedantic is apt to erode the Coalition’s public standing at a time when their parliamentary leader has a tenuous hold on the leadership. An apology to the ’stolen generation’ was part of the ALP’s platform for election. With or without bipartisan support the ALP should implement that policy. Mr. Rudd plans to do so in the Parliament under parliamentary privilege. If his implementation of the policy is in some way mismanaged and it creates problems for the Commonwealth, then he and his government can be left to deal with any adverse political consequences. The Liberal Party would be well advised (I know, not a recent characteristic) to let this one go through.
Harold 183 and others are right – there is no legal link between an apology and claims for compensation. Establishing a legal right to compensation requires proof of breach of some statutory or common law obligation of government. Because of the racist statutory framework under which much of the taking away of children occurred and the difficulty of establishing facts many years after the event, compensation test cases/claims are difficult and the first ones in the Northern Territory failed. A successful claim has recently been concluded in South Australia. Statements made by Premiers and PMs inside or outside Parliamnet are of no value in trying to prove a claim (unless perhaps they were very specific to a claim which doea not occur) – statements to the court are what count. Rudd making statement in Parliament is proper procedure, not to avoid reference to the statement in a court or fear of legal consequences.
There is a moral link between an apology and compensation. That is a political matter which can be sorted out later. It is certainly sensible to attempt to settle claims without lengthy and expensive hearings (about 10 years in the SA case and no doubt pretty expensive) as Tasmania has decided.
To change the topic, something I posted on the other thread which applies equally to this one.
Following on from last night, I’m still wading through a couple of articles about psychpathology in politicians and other famous people. There is a great article comparing levels of psychopathology on 291 world famous men. The groups were (including a % of severe psychopathology using DSMIIIR); scientists (18%), composers (31%), politicians (17%), artists (37%), thinkers (26%) and writers (46%).
Reference: Brit J Psychiatry (1994), 165, 22-34.
Listing all the politicians in terms of severity;
None: Briand, Franco, Gandhi, Metternich, Smuts, Stresemann, Thiers
Mild: Asquith, Ben Gurion, Bethmann-Hollweg, Garibaldi, Lenin, Mao-Zedong, Masaryk, Mazzini, Nkrumah, Poincare, FD Roosevelt, Sun-Yat-Sen
Moderate: Adenauer, Cavour, Chiang Kai-Sek, Churchill, Clemenceau, Gambetta, Gladstone, De Gaulle, Lloyd George, Mussolini, Nasser, Nehru, Palmerston, Parnell, Peel, Peron, Pilsudsky, Stalin, Venizelos
Severe: Bismarck, Bulow, Disraeli, Hitler, Ataturk, Lincoln, O’Connell, Woodrow Wilson.
Chances of interest rate rise
http://www.sfe.com.au/content/sfe/products/trt/targetratetracker.htm
Some people here are too sensitive to Aborigine’s feeling
Aboriginal Leaders generally don’t care whether the Libs support or don’t support the Rudd apology , because they know the Libs current leadership is divided on the issue & that leadership taints any Liberal response to Rudds view
Saying “Sorry” is not symbolism nor dollars to the Aborigine
It is recognition. But it needs the PM’s “sorry’” to give it credibility
Tax reduction for savers
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/silver-lining-for-firsthome-buyers/2008/02/04/1202090299048.html
Whilst interest rates increase, whilst the wealthy continue to cream off our government regarding negative gearing, private health cover, private education- Rudd decides to have another talkfest, just like Hawke in 1980s, all talk and no action.. Another pr gimic solution… Don’t any Labor Mp’s have any policies?
Steve #196,
What the overheated housing market needs is NOT another measure designed to encourage anyone (no matter how much in need) to enter the market – it needs help to balance supply and demand. With demand outstripping supply, increasing demand will only lead to inflationary pressures. A measure to improve supply, or get certain segments of the markets out (i.e, reduce incentives for[for example] investment house-buyers) will bring the market back into balance. While these measures are apparently well-intentioned, they are not the appropriate solution to the problem.
Mathew Cole@198
what about the old Dept housing and construction resurrected.
acting as the focal point it could co-ordinate states/developers
the Comm retains control until the house is sold to owners
this would stop prestige/sardine developments and allow for demand planning and decentalization
Whitlam started down this path but unfortunately no attempts were made to keep it going
Yes, Marky, far better to come up with policies without consulting anyone and then tell your critics that they’re standing in the way of process.
Hawke’s ‘talkfest’ in the ’80s led the Accord, which saw the unions work with the government to limit wage rises to reduce inflation, at the same time lowering the number of workdays lost to strikes. This had ongoing benefits to all of Australia for the next decade.
Consulting with people isn’t effective UNLESS you already have your own ideas – discussions need to happen within a framework.
As a policy writer, I can attest that there are huge dangers in coming up with ideas and then just blindly implementing them. The best results come when you run your initial ideas past experts in the field, getting them to prove to you whether or not your thoughts are valid.
The worst results come when, ala Howard and the National Water Initiative, you come up with a great plan all by yourself and won’t let anyone criticise it, even when its flaws are obvious and implementing it will led to as many problems as it solves.
Noone – despite Howard’s impersonations – can know everything about everything and it’s dangerous to pretend that they do. I am constantly dealing with people who know little or nothing about a subject having a ‘bright idea’ and then trying to get me to sell it, refusing to listen to me when I try and point out the obvious flaws.
We’ve just got rid of a government that acted in the same way. We should have learnt a few lessons from that.
Yes i totally agree with consultation and talking to groups beforehand, agree. But please explain to me what else Hawkie’s love fest in the 1980’s came up instead of a range of inquiries, money for policy writers like yourself and little action. Fed up with leaders who cannot see the obvious major problems in regards to certain wealthy groups doing very well for themselves from government handouts.
And guess who is to chair this thing Glyn Davis the same man who is bringing forth a american style education system at Melbourne University. Sorry i see another t bone without meat coming.
Fonzie lives!
Picture of Brendan Nelson on P.6 of todays Australian, blue jeans white T shirt, hair slicked back.
Nelson also has his black leather jacket and used to love riding his motorbike.
Wonder if he ever moonlighted at ozpolitics?
Hey Diogenes,
I just saw an interview with Studs Terkel, his thoughts were coherent (even though his speech was not) he was slouched in his chair and he had a box of tissues in his hand. I would say unless the cold develops into pneumonia he is right to see in 2009 and his 97th year.
Marky mark, I’m an UNPAID policy writer (in fact, it costs me money).
ESJ- Castro is well enough to endorse the Clinton/Obama “Dream Team”. They must be so pleased!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/08/28/wcastro128.xml
I don’t think the Rudd talkfest is a bad idea in theory.
The problem is that (by the look of it so far) it’s way too big, and not nearly focussed enough.
The Hawke Summits worked reasonably well (some would say very well) because they were pretty narrowly focussed – “how can we get business, unions and government to work together to create economic growth and share the benefits fairly” was the question (approximately).
Whereas this one looks like it’s trying to solve all our problems at once.
I wish KR well with it, though.
Rudd talkfest_- heard on news that Labor intends to go away and look at ideas than by early next year come up with a policy statement or list of views and than aim to formulate some policies, simple message do nothing. It is a gimic built around spin. A consultants boom, bet you KPMG and other groups are licking their lips… at taxpayers expense.
Interest rates and housing prices continue to increase why?
Handouts regarding first home owner grants, tax cuts and negative gearing fuelling demand and prices but Labor intends to come up with some bulldust superannuation scheme which costs 600 million whilst negative gearing costs billions… Whats the bet first home owners will continue to be priced out and prices will continue to rise.
What we have in this country is a seven liberal governments and seven conservative governments, simple.
Marky Marky reminds me of the Khruschev Nixon debate.
Nixon said to K you are not democratic you can only vote for a communist, K replied to N so you only have capitalists to choose from.
Let a 1,000 flowers bloom as someone else once said.
Wayne Swan carping and criticising and blaming the previous government. Wayne soon your policies will be the focus because they will do very little regarding inflation, best to start being serious instead of looking at others.
Why Wayne promise tax cuts, why allow the rich continue to get their handouts because they are the people fuelling inflation and a boom.
So Esj lets play simon says. That is the game most people play and let our governments get away with doing nothing about this countries problems.
ESJ,
Which one is Marky Marky? He seems to move around a bit.
very droll GG,
Have you abandoned the American thread too? 30% of comments from one poster too much for you?
Christian Kerr on Philip tonight. Christian is, in four weeks time, doing it for the Oz.
Informed on our PM clearing the Government ranks of the spinners. Sounds like a good deal of reform is being undertaken.
Stables, yes. Herculean task. Yes, we can.
I have made my comments about that little coterie of circle jerkers. I just don’t want to be provocative and say any more.
Fair enough GG.
Crikey Whitey – believe it when i see it.
Perhaps they will, the cricket team lacks spinners at the moment.
Already its spin evolves around blaming the previous government, bet you if Mitsubishi closes tomorrow it will be someone elses fault.
Crikey where is the vision, what is this governments vision?
So far it is talkfests and cutting spending what kind of vision is this? And the talkfest will some results next year, what will occur is a view that big business accepts and the murdoch press and then their will be senate inquiries and by then another election.. So in reality it will be a waste of time.
Sorry to be cynical but currently here in Victoria we have a government that is spinning so much bull day after day over dredging, desalination and Gm crops and than hiding everything because it is commerical in confidence, accountability and good governance has gone out the window.
GG and ESJ are the serious bloggers who provide us with the talk in the playground.
Marky Marky I will break my policy of treating you with disdain because you are basically a concern troll. Over many preceding months you have professed your undying devotion to the values of the Labor Party which apparently existed in land far away. You then continuously bag Labor Governments and individuals for not living up to your mythical expectations.
Get Real. Rudd was elected on a series of policies that were cleary articulated prior to the election. From what I can observe he and his team are actually implementing said policies.
If you are shocked, disappointed or unsatisfied I can only advise you to read the label before you buy in future.
ESJ-We stuffed up big missing Gordon Hinckley, the president of the Mormon Church. The guys at Deathlist are spewing they didnt put him on. He was 98 after all. And to the bludgers who think the deathlist is not relevant to politics, Romney is keeping a bit quiet about it to avoid the Mormon tag. And when Romney gets wiped tomorrow, he’s now got a great job vacancy.
At least when i go to the grave GG i will have been true to my principles and have had a view which actually cares about the little people. Instead what we have are people who want to be a part of the powerful and let the powerful rule and have no idea what they believe, actually to weak to be vocal about anything.
With all due respect, Marky Marky, your little people constituency has all the indications of being located at the bottom of the garden…
Well Marky Marky you will be as happy as you are ever going to be when you die.
Sure, marky marky. I do happen to wonder, if not necessarily agree, about Victoria.
Brumby may not have what it takes. Baillieu, according to media accounts, is repositioned, and possibly may be able to cut it.
Should you happened to have read any of my posts, you will be aware that I am hardly happy about the Rann Government. My especial grievance, the water.
I happen to think, indeed know, that if a Government fails the population, that the price will be paid.
This fate may easily befall a few Labor State Governments in the foreseeable future.
None of these thoughts apply to the Rudd Federal Government. Sure, after the horrendous decade of cynicism, winner takes all politics, vision was simply no longer allowed. In fact, any notion of ‘vision’ seems to have been far too dramatic an idea for countenance. The media embraced and promoted this idea.
The idea of a future beyond the Howard regime was thoroughly trashed.
However, I and anyone who voted Labor is nurturing hope. Our hope. But just as it is hard to repress a tremor when the ‘PM’ is mentioned, followed by relief, the apprehension cultivated so assiduously is not so easily thrown off.
It is already and amazingly expressed by the Opposition, critiquing Rudd. Even Kerry O’Brien, tonight, right into the dire warnings.
Howard went into the ‘relaxed and comfortable’ nonsense, which has failed us.
Rudd knows we are anything but. As he said tonight, turning around a ‘Queen Mary’ takes time.
So, it will take time. And I give that time. We have evidence of intention.
We will see how it goes. Feel free to criticise. I do and will. We have more than a few weeks left before the next election.
The urgency is there, but what did the former Government intend? There, indeed was no vision, at all.
Crikey agree with your assessment, but i look at all Labor Governments even the previous Hawke- Keating Governments which believed very much about economic conservatism tax cuts, privatisation and the like.
Government is about action and owning things because it is the cheapest form of debt and is good for working people and public, can do things and make for a better country. Instead i fear that Rudd and his team are market economic believers and will do very little about middle and upper class welfare, climate change, housing and policies surrounding social welfare. Agree totally Howard and his team were pathetic.
Want to see some real action in regards to our problems instead of touching the sides like this superannuation scheme for first home buyers will be, spin that is why it is come out today to deflect interest rate rise but will not work.
GG and Fulvio, sorry guys but it is time you put the murdoch papers and started reading something that was intelligent. Time to stop being in denial.
Good then, marky marky. Write to Kev.
I posted this the other night for ESJ. But tonight it it is for you Marky marky.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cU_9-uuKz0I
Greensborough not to be personal myself but i don’t know why i read your blogs because you never have anything to say which means anything, it is generally personal talk, inane rubbish, and talk which goes no where. You kind of remind me of some of freaks which are apart of local council or whom are members of the right wing faction, people who go to lengths to dig up dirt on opponents or whom tell lies about others or get on community and destroy their real intentions by having their own bulldust agendas which go nowhere. Greensborough you seem like right wing faction boy who is lost for ideas and vision, who is in it just to upset people.
I luv youse, Greeensborough.
“right wing faction boy”, does that come with a cape and utility belt?
No, but a white hood over the head with two holes in it.
Marky,
Glad you don’t want to get personal!
All I can say is to re read 219 and suck it in.
Hear, Hear GG.
I invite you, marky marky to:
Participate. It is available.
Find out when a Cabinet meeting will be held, in your area. Attend.
Write about issues to your local member. Phone. Email. Express your opinion, your views. You are invited. Feel free to be cynical. Just let them know.
Make it your business to learn in due course who is your ‘ideas’ person. Offer. Ventilate. Want participation? There are ways to do so.
Any pretence is easily perceived. But go along. We are not unnerved.
Repeat- member of a local council or faction who needs others to do the talking for him or develop policies and ideas. A member of the faction who allows his colleagues to get him a job or position in a union and then eventually a seat in parliament, or council and then with the factions help letters in the newspaper or position on a committee or community group and then help with their stacked numbers a nice, perhaps safe seat and then a plum posting in cabinet and all they have done is say yes when the faction requires it. The factional system looking after todays nobrainers for the benefit of the nobrainers in cabinet and computers of tomorrow. Greensborough you are so much fun.
Do something! marky marky.
Crikey i do particapite and do write to members of parliament and our State Mps’ . I know how our democratic system works. And those cabinet meetings yep love to ask our federal Mps’ what they attend to do about media policy and the monopoly murdoch has regarding newspapers in your state and Brisbane, what do they attend to do about murdoch owning some 70 per cent of our communcation levels? Watch them say nothing. Their is the problem straight out the lack of a diversified media.
Marky, I admire your ideals, your courage and your tenacity, but your impatience is, to be blunt, exasperating. Criticise by all means, but all I, and I think most others here, are saying is give Rudd & Co a decent opportunity to implement whatever they have promised and then allow a window to assess its success or failure. Then feel free to damn or praise.
This government has been in office barely two months. I know that God took only seven days to make the universe, but even I don’t make that comparison.
You want to correct some of the injustices of this world as you perceive them and in the priority that you give them. You say act now and to hell with the political consequences and the political backlash. It was such thinking that doomed the Whitlam administration and in my view led to Keating’s undoing. It is what gave us the eleven years of Purgatory that is the Howard Legacy.
Changing the public mindset and introducing acceptable reform is not done with a sledgehammer but with gentle abrasion like running water, slowly, imperceptibly, but inexhorably.
Without intending to be patronising Marky, (which I probably am) I think you presume too much in believing every one who does not support you is against you. Most of us want the same things. Most of us are prepared to wait a reasonable while to see if they come about.
Sorry for this final metaphor Marky, it must be an ethnic thing, but you can’t carry water home if you smash your urn on the way to the well.
Marky says,
“Greensborough you are so much fun”.
Thanks for the compliment. The first from you to anyone I have noticed in many months. So the therapy is working. (Don’t stop taking the pills though).
Unfortunately, I have better offer from CW @ 229.
Good luck on your next space mission.
Fine, marky marky.
Did you, for example, put out by physical effort in the Federal election? You will know that many of us actively did so.
Let me know your progress. As I have already suggested, there are ways.
It matters a great deal to be out there. When you attend something, let me know where that was, about what you questioned and what were the answers.
In the interim, I am going to bed.
I expect to hear of some real activity from you, in the future.
Marky marky I understand your frustration with the political process epecially when we ALL see what we think are social injustices that seem simple to fix
But Graham richardson probably spoke for most major party pollies when he said Politics is the art of compromise & of numbers
its difficult we you care but run into political reality
Falvio, i agree somewhat in regards to your comments, but this government will i am afraid be a nothing.
However i will praise it for closing down the Nauru detention centre, signing Kyoto, and putting in place a means to bring troops home from Iraq, however during the election it put forward a view which stated that it would have tax cuts, continue middle class welfare on rich schools and private health handouts and these policies are not labor ideals, and todays’ promise on superannuation savings accounts for first home owners is a drop in the ocean and a waste regarding home ownership for first home owners. Perhaps this policy would be okay if it intended to slowly reduce negative gearing handouts for homeowners, then you will actually begin tackling the real problem causing housing unaffordability but they will not. Will wait and see what the Budget cuts will be. Nonetheless why is defence being quarantined, what role does play towards economic growth?
But his summit is virtually again just a gimiciky ideal, which will allow certain groups to control policy. Don’t hold out any hope Falvio, the Victorian Labor Government has been in power here for eight years and done very little other than spending on health and education, and at present it is allowing the wealthy to have their roads, channels in the bay, major developments and a grand prix which is not making money.
Crikey if your still awake i will just mention that i have been a member of the ALP for some fifteen years, and have asked so many questions at meetings that i give up. Time to put the noose around my head i know Greensborough will dearly like to help me do it.
It goes around your neck Marky, if you put it around your head you could end up with a hairdo like Nelson’s.
marky marky, did the Whitlam years not teach you anything? That government had lots of ideas which it continued to implement even when economic circumstances made it unwise to do so and it was thrown out after effectivelly one turn. What survived of its grand plan? Medicare and little if anything else.
The art of governing is not scaring the horses. If Rudd legislated everything you advocate, and I’m not saying you’re necessarily wrong, then he’d be lucky to survive until June 30.
As much as you may disagree with middle/upper class welfare, the fact is the middle class/rich vote, have come to regard that welfare as their right and built their financial lives on the expectation they’ll get it. Take it away in one fell swoop and it’ll be goodnight nurse. Same goes with negative gearing. Yes, it is bad, but a lot of, not necessarily rich, folk have invested their life savings in houses because of it and the consequences of removing it suddenly would be disasterous in the short term, and not just for the landlords.
As for quarantining the defence force, what are you suggesting, we do without?
Crazybrave IR from the Libs.
http://www.newmatilda.com/2008/02/04/%E2%80%98crazybrave%E2%80%99-strategy
Marky MArky honestly mate, feel free to have your say and rail against whatever for all I care. But labeling GG as a Klansman? thats way over the line. You should retract and apologise
Marky mark, I too have been a member of the Vic ALP for over fifteen years.
I don’t belong to a faction and hold no paid position, but because I have worked hard with and for my local community and the Labor Party I have the ability to have my views heard and have contributed significantly to policy development (and do my best to make sure these policies are implemented).
It’s hard work, of course it is. There are people who are paid by government to do policy work every day of their lives. Doing it as a volunteer means I have to look at things in ways that they can’t and come up with ideas which are practical and meet real needs.
And yes, it’s also frustrating. Every now and then an idea I know is good is rolled by the boys. I simply put it on the backburner for a year or so and then try again.
I attend State Conferences and the like, and spend my whole time there getting Ministers into dark corners and telling them what they need to do.
The key is to never ask for something for yourself, have your facts right and keep plugging.
You will never get all you want, but you’ll achieve far more than sitting there and whining.
I thought I would come in this blog for a look, my god, it’s handbags at 50 paces here as well.
One of the earlier comments aroused my interest, concerning tax exemption for churches. In this age of corporatisation of religion, isn’t it time for a rethink? I see no valid reason why they should be exempt. Fine, allow them a deduction for their charitable works, but tax them at company tax rates on the balance. They have seen fit to take part in the affairs of men, lobby and connive, play politics, let them join the rest of us in our fiscal obligations also.
Nelson flogging the new horses on the 7.30 Report.
Attempting to talk up the fantastic state of the economy as they left it, which one could be led to believe went into freefall on 25 November. And unionists rampaging over the countryside! Lies about the financial support given by the government to institutions, such as education, over the last decade.
Roll on Parliament! The mad myths need to be deconstructed, coolly, calmly, incisively.
attempting to evade responsibility for the a flogging from Kerry.
Just saw Nelson on 7:30 Report: Nelson: “Australian’s won’t be happy if this government continues to blame the past government. Oh, and by the way, interest rates were 17% under Hawke and Keating – and lock your doors cos unions are taking over the world.”
I think poor Horatio was reading the 07 election campaign script and hasn’t yet realised that he lost.
Hi, folks, been lurking and reading your comments for a while now but not posting.
After watching the latest effort by Admiral Nelson in front of an invigorated Kerry O’Brien on tonight’s 7.30 Report, I have to concede that the Liberals have an uphill battle to convince the Australian electorate that they have any relevance in the current political situation and can they can improve on that irrelevance in the medium to longer term.
Nelson is coming across as a complete dud and his main competitor, Turnbull is not shaping up any better.
They are surely not suited to opposition. I think we are in for a re-run of the early Hawke years when they couldn’t come to grips with the fact that you have to work that much harder in opposition to demonstrate any relevance to the changed political climate and that it is Governments not Oppositions which set the political agenda and attract the interest of the media in reporting and disassembling policy implementation and outcomes.
Hi Scorpio,
Good to see you back.
Re Liberals:
“They are surely not suited to opposition. I think we are in for a re-run of the early Hawke years when they couldn’t come to grips with the fact that you have to work that much harder in opposition to demonstrate any relevance to the changed political climate and that it is Governments not Oppositions which set the political agenda and attract the interest of the media in reporting and disassembling policy implementation and outcomes”.
1. Liberals in Opposition – See Australia’s Biggest Losers- LOL.
2. Policy – Where do I buy that!
3. Relevance Deprivation Syndrome is Us.
I know they did not have the numbers, but on your analysis, Rudd has been PM for over a year.
Might work against the new Government.
Seriously!
Hello there, Scorpio! Happy New Year. Any advance on 28 April?
On the Opposition, such as it is. Is Brendan in a dream? A dream of being a Leader?
I actually find it difficult to come to grips with. Is it the same denial as ‘coming second?’ Does Nelson think that being the strongman will drape him in emporer clothes?
Just read all the non-believers ripping me apart as usual, the right wingers rule the roost, to frightened to think.
Apologists for the current governments in this country.
MayoFeral- i don’t advocate change all at once i advocate a slow decrease of funds for private health insurance and private schools and for negative gearing, i do not advocate doing it all at once- that would be suicidal.
But again i ask why is defence not being cut in the budget, it contributes nothing to the economy.
Labor has said it will do nothing about private school funding and private health funding and this is appalling.
Finally you can all continue to ridicule me put simply it will not stop me. Labor has become a nothing party without decent and meaning policies.
Nelson was an embarrassment on the 7.30 Report and will not contest the next election for the Liberals, it will be Turnbull and if the economy continues to go downwards he will become Prime Minister (although i hate the man he is sharp, tough and very good at stating things) because Labor is going to send us to a recession if it provides tax cuts and cuts spending- spending cuts will help the economy fall into a hole.
Tax cuts should not occur in times of a boom. This is madness.
Hi Crikey, Happy New Year to you too. Sorry, no advance on 28th April.
I don’t think 8 weeks is enough time for Rudd and Roxon to fix up the public health system.
I’m starting to get the feeling that Nelson and Turnbull thought that being leader of the Liberals after 24th November was going to be relatively easy and just a follow on from where Howard left off.
The main problem is though, they are no longer in office and both travellers have never had the humbling experience of being in opposition before.
At least Howard had supped from both cups prior to his 11.5 year reign and had experience at both ends of the chain.
It is quite apparent that the whole political Liberal Party basically sat back during this time and let Howard do all the running with regard to policy development and promotion with very little imput or questioning of value or relevance by rank and file members or Cabinet Ministers.
It is shaping up to be a long three years for them and a painful learning process.
Heard Malcolm Turnbull on ABC AM this morning and was surprised at how poorly he interviewed – a lot of awkward pauses, searching for words, obviously being caught on the back foot moments.
I don’t know if it was his political inexperience showing or whether I’ve just been assuming that his PR was correct and this is the first time I’ve actually listened to him!
Zoom,
Great point. Turnbull always presents as a lawyer with a brief. Will argue a case till blue in the face for a client. But, then retires to the bar to have few drinks.
Politics require a bit more committment than that.
The best thing Labor can do with Turnbull is to give him a minute and then extend it to two or more. Will talk himself into oblivion.
When will a interviewer ask Admiral Nelson or PM Rudd the question “Do you support the democratic rights of people to vote on particular issues.”? A follow up question would ask them whether they support the Taiwanese people’s wish to join the UN. The juxtaposition would be exquisite.
http://news.theage.com.au/china-australia-hold-strategic-meeting/20080205-1q43.html
I find the kowtowing to a dictatorship by both parties revolting. Obviously the worship of resource dollars by both parties overrides any sense of decency or principles. I wonder whether they would do the same if it was religion that was at stake?
marky marky @ 254
“But again i ask why is defence not being cut in the budget, it contributes nothing to the economy.”
Neither do cops, lawyers and judges.
The ADF has been undermanned and under financed for some time and is badly in need of new or updated equipment. If you want to cut its budget then you might as well stop pretending and just abolish it. You only need look at the pathetic state the NZDF has become to see the pointlessness of having a token force. The Kiwis can get away with it because they are a long way from potential foes and don’t have much to take anyway.
Marky Marky.
I’ll take just one example of this bag of misconceptions you seem to have about the nature of public finances.
If we take, even gradually, money from private schools and put it back into public schools – as the private school enrollment numbers drop and public school enrollments increase as a result of those ex-private school students flowing back to the public system (simply because their parents can no longer afford to send their kids to private schools without that subsidy) – where does the extra money come from to fund this extra public school enrollment? The money required to maintain per-student funding levels as they are now for public education would have to be larger than the amount you can save from the reduction in private school funding. Those savings can partially offset the new expenditure you would require, but it doesn’t go near offsetting it completely because the majority of private schools are actually low cost private schools. The government is only providing a fraction of the costs of providing a private school education to a student, a cost that is itself only a fraction of the amount they would have to spend were those students schooled in the public system instead.
And this doesn’t even get into the massive increase in capital expenditure on new schools that would be needed should public enrollments have a 20% surge.
Better yet, if the public is willing to pay $X to educate a given student, why is it a problem if parents agree to pay more from their own pocket and receive less than $X from the government to educate their kids?
Private schools actually save the government money, and provide higher levels of per-student public education funding as a result.
Maybe it’s time to move on from the failed old anachronistic class warfare cliches of yore, comrade.
It would seem, Scorpio et al, that the electoral ‘losers’ that is those who voted Howard, have lost none of their virulence, either.
Seeming not to realise that it may yet make them winners.
I listened in dismay to Tony Delroy’s issue, regarding Kev’s ideas summit. With few exceptions, the callers raged, through the spectrum of sceptical, cynical, dismissive and outright hateful.
Comments such as the Government should know. The Government came to office saying it had the ideas. That the public servants should have the answers. Not a mention from the anti camp that these answers were not forthcoming in the recent decade.
Some, say a person from the disability interest area, did complain that they would not get a look in, given that is a pay for oneself exercise. Perhaps valid, but I sure do not know who will be invited to attend or whether such persons will be supported by other means, say their own organisation.
All this moaning about failure to consult, and the minute something is offered…..
Possum i totally disagree with you. Why should my taxes and the taxes of all people provide funds for students in private schools and health why? Why have a system which provides advantages to people who go to private schools over public schools and advantages indeed..
Statistics show that private school educated children far outweigh enrolements to university, medicine and law rarely has publically educated children and if they do they come from wealthy suburbs like Balwyn or Camberwell.
Why should my taxes provide for snow trips and rowing clubs and private tutors it is a disgrace.
You seem to not understand what public ownership means, and this today is our problem with many of us the lack of understanding of the meaning of government and spending.
Private ownership is about private ownership and if private ownership must exist than let it on the backs of people who send their kids to such institutions.
You seem to not understand that their are significantly fewer students attending private schools whilst funding to them has increased rapidly go to http://www.aeufederal.org.au/Debates/index2.html#FG
and go to fact sheet on private schools.
So your view suggesting that private school attendance helps lessen the burden on governments is simply bollocks!!
This money instead could fund public schools.
Possum if private schools want their rowing clubs and million dollar cricket pitchs they should the people who attend pay.
And allow children in Broadmeadows and Melton an opportunity to be tomorrows lawyers and doctors.
I believe the government is currently doing an audit of what resources different schools have in each neighbourhood with a view to sharing them between schools. The following is a snippet from an interview on 6PR 21/01/2008.
……
PRESENTER: Now you also said on the weekend that private schools should open their doors up to kids that don’t go to private schools. Have you got any ideas on how that could work?
JULIA GILLARD: What we talked about on the weekend was sharing facilities. Often State schools and private schools are located very near to each other – sometimes they’re basically on the same big block and what is separating them is a fence. We want to be talking to those schools about working together to share facilities because it might be that if they worked together they can get both the music rehearsal room that they’ve been dying to get as well as the improved gymnasium. Whereas if they’re working separately, then it wouldn’t be possible for them to, you know, get everything that they want. So I think it’s just a better way of using resources.
PRESENTER: So if it’s a hot day and the kids are at the public school and they want to have a swim – they just you know, bring their towel and just hop across to the private school, that type of thing?
JULIA GILLARD: [Laugh] Well, I wouldn’t be advocating climbing the fence with your towel in hand and just turning up at the private school. But I would be saying that if the principals of those two schools could have a conversation and work out what’s the best way of sharing the facilities and meeting the needs of all of the children in those schools, that’d be tremendous.
PRESENTER: What about improving the facilities in public schools?
JULIA GILLARD: Well we’ve got a big investment program for all schools. We’re going to spend $1 billion making sure that students in years 9 to twelve have a computer that they can use. That is going to start rolling out very soon. Schools in the greatest need will be able to apply as early as March and we’ve got $100 million to invest this year.
We’re also going to invest in trade training centres in every secondary school in the country, so children can have an experience of what it’s going to be like if they choose to be a tradesperson…
……
She’s good that Gillard.
Crikey Whitey Says:@ 261
{It would seem, Scorpio et al, that the electoral ‘losers’ that is those who voted Howard, have lost none of their virulence, either.}
In reading the comments by Liberal supporters on the limited range of domestic, political subjects available so far in the MSM blogs, I have come to the conclusion that C/T must still be influencing affairs behind the scenes.
These comments and recent ones by the likes of Nelson and Turnbull et al, all seem to be following common threads. ie The comments are mostly along the lines of the “talking points sheets” that were so prominent during the last 12 months election campaign.
Until these clowns can learn to cut the apron strings from the likes of C/T and numerous conservative “Think Tanks” and learn how to evaluate public policy need and develop an appropriate response mechanism to that, then they are doomed to long term irrelevency.
The Libs have clearly lost the ability to analyse where they have gone wrong and have no idea about how to effectively respond to Labor initiatives and policy objectives.
Case in point, Nelson’s prevarication and uncertainty on how to respond to the “sorry” issue as well as his and Turnbull’s comments directed towards Rudd and Swann in relation to the increase in the inflation figures and today’s interest rate increase which are directly related to the previous Government policy settings.
ie Based on the last quarter of 2007 of which Labor was in power for a total of 37 days including the period in which they were not even sworn in as a Government.
Just image those private school boys at Wesley sharing their gym with a boy from the StKilda High just image the frowns.. Yep we really need to help those private schools with their overseas trips and school chalets at Hotham and Falls Creek- could someone please tell me what role this contributes to the economy. It is greed and it is a disgrace.
And a late but little absorbed grab on Lateline, Annabel Crabbe and Arthur Sinodinos. Late but little, seems Annabel is intending to pursue Kev, on ‘the buck stops here.’ Bit of a change from her pre election posture. Arthur has returned to the Howard camp, despite his desertion earlier. Most likely Arthur wants the new bucks to stop with him.
And, as Tom Eagleton summed it ‘all this before Kevin has set foot in Parliament.’
I’ll just stick with one topic at a time – private health insurance is a little bit complicated – but suffice to say that it needs serious reform to make it work properly.
But on the education thing; Why should we provide our tax payer money for private education? Because:
a) it costs us less money to get education outcomes the same or better than if we didn’t provide private school funding.
It passes the Pareto optimality test.
b) People that choose to spend additional money outside of their taxes on their kids education rather than alternative expenditure shouldn’t be penalised simply on the basis of ideology that ignores what’s actually happening!
It’s true that private school educated kids have a greater chance of getting into university, but they also have lower overall university performance than their publically educated counterparts.
Now where you seem to believe that the increase in uni enrollments from students of a private school background is purely the result of the private school background itself, and probably crowds out opportunities for public students – how much of that seemingly extra opportunity that private schools, at least on paper, provide for university entrance is actually a result of the private schooling and how much is the result of parents actually giving a real shit about their kids education? Parents that provide a good education environment at the home will have their kids qualifying for university regardless of which type of school they attend.
You seem to think that all private schools are some rollicking good rugger affairs, where its excursions to St Moritz in the summer, and off to the heated pool in the winter. There are only a handful of schools like that in the entire country! The overwhelming majority of private schools are small, low cost jobbies. So that’s what you’re actually dealing with here when talking about ‘private schools’
I understand fully what public ownership means – pretty much nothing other than public ownership. The ownership isn’t important, the educational outcomes – the results, the kids getting the best education possible for a given budget is what is important. Some imposed government monopoly in an area where no such natural monopoly exists, forcing all parents to accept any flavour of education they like as long as it’s vanilla is a pointless exercise – it costs more and dilutes (i.e. reduces) overall per student education funding.
And far from some long term reduction in private school enrollments ( that’s a quite mysterious thing to say really) the absolute opposite is the case. Let me quote the data:
“The proportion of school students attending government schools fell from 71% in 1995 to 67% in 2005.” from the ABS here:
http://tinyurl.com/3b6xqt
Over 2006/07, that pattern has continued.
And due to nature of governments only funding each private school enrollment at a fraction of the cost of funding a public school enrollment, private schooling increasing per-student public schooling funding (as a result of the semi-mixed student-capita/fixed costs nature of public school funding) is far from bollocks, its the reality we live in.
That money could indeed fund public school places, but it wouldnt fund the number of places in the public system that it abolished in the private system, leaving an education budget in deficit. And it certainly wouldnt cover the capital costs required to build new schools (and upgrade existing schools) from such a large surge of public enrollments.
Marky, Class warfare is deranged – especially when all you’d be doing is rogering everyone except the very wealthy that wouldnt need the private school subsidy anyway.
267
Hey Possum, re your comment: “It’s true that private school educated kids have a greater chance of getting into university, but they also have lower overall university performance than their publically educated counterparts.”
You mean to say that a disproportionate whack of my hard-earned goes to support private school types so they can enjoy an inferior education AND crowd out public-schooled kids (whose parents couldn’t afford the fees) from university. Sounds like a GREAT use of the education $.
dyspnoeia, you should be happy that they’re in private schools. If they were all in public schools, you’d be paying more of your hard-earned to educate them than you do now.
The question over uni enrollment is really one of: “How much of the apparent extra opportunity that private school students receive for getting into university is the result of private schooling, and how much is the result of having an upbringing in a home environment conducive to learning?”
There’s a big correlation between private schooling and that environment.Unfortunately it’s almost impossible to control for in any actual data analysis to find the exact answer.
I agree some of the things you state on this occasion, yes private school student outcomes at universities are poor but it does little to deter my argument that it is private school students who get to university in the first place and get into courses of high calibre which suggests to me their are inherent problems in the system. Hence you suggest it is home life and yes that may be partly to blame but i also know it is a result of parents not having the resources to help their children and being able to afford such resources whilst people with money can attend private schools can gain access to such resources – something which the taxpayer should not be subsiding.
And yes i agree it is only a handful of private schools gaining significant funding and most are smaller either independent, religious based private institutions.
Some may I agree should get some help but i am against funding religious based schools, religon should not be a part of the budgetary process.
And yes enrolments have increased but that is because funding to such schools has also increased rapidly during this period which encourages people to go to such schools at the expense of the public system. Plus the economy has boomed and people have more money, of course to go into debt with. Additionally private schools have become part of this system of greed which suggests that by sending my children to such a school i will keeping up with my friends and neighbours and that you are of a higher status.
People require a world class public system not simply schools which are inequitably based in regards to resources and needs. Put simply how do you know we will have an education deficit where are the facts? Still private schools would exist as parents and high income earners would keep them running, I am just suggesting don’t fund them.
And by the way what is wrong with raising taxes on the rich to pay for funding public schools or borrowing some cash, no cannot do that it would be so wrong.
I went to a public school and suffered the burden of inequitable access due to being brought up in a single parent household, you seem to think that it is easy and we can all achieve if we try hard the same economic ratiionalist talk i hear everyday that we can all make it and it is purely rubbish. Look at the economy now people heavily in debt and spirally out of control because of this private funding fetish we have got ourselves into.
Marky, on some parents not having the resources to utilise private schooling while others can, then surely the way forward in a policy sense is to get stuck into fixing up the public education system to overcome that problem, rather than punitively punish middle income families for having the audacity to save a bit on the side so they can send their kids to a private school?
Surely that would be a much better approach!
As long as the religious component of schools of schools is not subsidised, I have no real problem with them. Sure it’s almost impossible because of the religious bent that may permeate the place in some instances, but there is, say, a dedicated hour of religious study every day as part of the school itself, then it’s simple to cut out 1 hour per student per day of public funding from that – again, we don’t need to wreck the two systems here to achieve policy goals.
Sure, the public funding of private schooling has increased fairly rapidly, from a low base – and is still only a fraction of the tax payer funds spent on a per student basis for public education. If private schools were publically funded on a higher per student basis than public schools, I’d be howling from the nearest window with you, but as long as it’s less, then it remains a net benefit to the public system.
People pay for the quickly dissolving privilege of having a ‘better class of friends’. But the government shouldn’t get its hands dirty in social engineering. If people a silly enough to think that sort of stuff will actually make much of a rats arse of difference compared to merit in these increasingly competitive times – more power to their delusions I say.
On the education deficit – we *would* have one if vast numbers of private school enrollments from the small catholic and independent schools were forced back into the public system because of subsidy withdrawal. That’s simple maths. It costs the *government* less money to send a student to a private school than it costs them to send a student to a public school. So if all those low taxpayer funded private school places came back in to the high tax payer funded public school system, the budget would have to dramatically increase just to stand still on a per-student public funding basis (and that still ignores the large capital costs involved in needing to buil new schools and expand other schools just to house the public student influx)
It’s silly to borrow cash to pay for recurring expenditure. Borrow cash to pay for a capital works project (where the value of that project pays for itself over a number of years), but for a flowing expenditure like education it is both pointless and dangerous.You still have to pay the debt back.
Life will always deliver the full spectrum of households with the full spectrum of opportunity. The key for education policy is to lift the bottom and not penalise the top.I agree – public education needs to provide greater opportunity for those that aren’t fortunate enough to come from a wealthy household or a home environment that is conducive to learning. But that can be done without penalising everyone else in the process.
As for peoples debt problems – they made the choice, the government can’t always hold peoples hands.
And for the record, I spent my entire schooling in rural public schools in one of the poorest electorates in the country.
Possum, it seems to me that a person’s view on what class warfare is, may be coloured by what class they consider themselves to be in. A rich person might say that class warfare is being denied the right to give my children an advantage when competing for position and wealth when they leave school. A poor person might say that class warfare is rich people using their wealth to give their children an advantage when competing for position and wealth when they leave school. Surely the politics of envy line died with the Howard government?
This is my first blog on this 3 hour debate on Private School funding and realise my blog may contain errors but thats what Debate is for
Marky I understand your idealism & some of your points have merit but query:
1/
‘a fair go’ is supposed to be the Aussie way.
Do our kids have equity of opportunity in Education irrespective of income.
I Think NO…..those who ague otherwise are being disingenuous
The fact this is a world wide situation does not make it right
2/
The problems in achieving this equity of opportunity are numerous but clearly money is a dominant cause of the problem & part of the solution.
The economic reason given in favour of Public funding of Private Schools is that
Public funding represents only a small proportion of a Private School students costs with the Private School parents paying the difference.
ie. if the Private School student moved to a Public School , the Public cost would be higher as the Private School parents subsidy would disappear.
WITHOUT this argument , the economic case for Public funding of Private Schools is demolished….then such Public funding would be clearly inequitable
Furthermore in the case of the disadvantaged ‘poor’ Private Scools especially the Catholic ones , the differential is clearly small
The notion that ALOT of the average $16,000 to $20,000 top Private School fee per student is the actual cost for a Public School student is highly questionable
3/ How strong is the Private Schools per student argument that their Parents are subsidising their kids vs EQUIVALENT facilities in a Public School
This would necessitate an analysis of the respective true costs of both sectors
Frankly this would require a thorough independent Commission to establish the true cost per student of Public vs Private for EQUIVALENT facilities and between the varying categories of Schools within each as they’d vary significantly
The Schools Commission efforts in this regard are at best bureaucratic……
and I contend the case has not been convincingly made , see point 8/
5/ The political argument over Public funding of Private Schools is probably over because Rudd has committed to the Schools formula in the next
period 2009 to 2013. otherwise Labor would lose an Election…political reality
6/ Rudd has however attempted to reduce the inequity of opportunity by
(a) providing equal Capital Expenditure on laptops etc & the like to ALL schools
which does lift the equity of opportunity
(b) mandating there be a National Syllabus which has crucial Univerity entry equity implictions.
PRESENTLY , students doing Maths 2 and the Sciences generally tend to get re-rated upwards on their marks and Humanities the reverse way resulting in an advantage for Uni entry of the former category.
Most of the best academically performing Private Schools re Uni entry have most of their students doing Maths 2 and the Sciences which increases their entry opportunities whilst the Public Schools are a mix but more to the later category
Hopefully Rudd’s plan will overcome this and lift the equity of opportunity
7/ What Rudd’s plan inclusive of State funding does not do is
(a) recognise that there are numerous Private Schools especially Catholic ones that are just as disadvantaged as many Public Schools
(b) fund the Capital improvement of ALL schools buildings & facilities to an agreed world class standard a referred to in 8/ ( not to a basic standard)
(c) Teacher to Student ratio’s should be equal accross ALL Schools Public & Private and a Federal & State allocation “Capital” cost should be built into the Budgets to annually maintain an agreed world class ratio level
These steps would further lift the equity of opportunity for diadvantaged Private & Public Schools
This could be done without altering the Schools formula 2005 to 2009 nor the next one 2009 to 2013
8/
(a) Costs Detail & Allocation purposes needed:
A benchmark of facilities & buildings: their age ,purpose , size , usage , $ value teacher & student numbers to each factor etc has not been conducted in a
satisfactory form to enable EQUIVALENT facilities to be appropriately compared
In respect to the total dollars I stand to be corrected but I believe the Federal budget is approx 42 billion of which 28 billion goes to Private Schhols & 14 billion goes to Public Schools
In addition , each State Government allocates funds for Public Schools
the amount of which I’m unaware
I also understand that 30% of attendees go to Private Schools & 70% Public
The breakup of all these Federal & State Government funds into Capital Expenditure , Wages , facilities , support services etc. are a crucial factor
in making a sound comparison of per student costs Public vs Private
Furthermore , the “creative accounting” I’ve seen in some Private Schools financial accounts to inflate per student costs would need analysis
7/ (b)
The substantial tax deductability benefits (greater for Private School tax payers) are paid by all tax payers from the Federal Budget & need to be added ONTO the respective sPublic & private Sectors costs per student
There are other associated plus’s & minus’s to adjust to each sector
CONCLUSION
The issue is not class warfare
The issue is equity of opportunity for children….. all of whom are born equal
The child who in the future might have found the cure to cancer may through inequity of opportunity never had the educational opportunity to do so
Educational advancement should not be based on the depths of a parents pocket but on the attributes of the student
“Capital expenditure” outside of the Schools Commission formula is necessary
for disadvantaged Private & Public Schools in the areas listed including facilities , syllabus & teacher numbers to attempt to redress equity of opportunity
Good to see that Red Kezza has had a rejuvenating holiday break, jeez he gutted old Horatio Hornblower on the 7:30 report. One second Nelson was rabbiting about Labor taking responsibility for ‘now’, not blaming previous govt, the next he was into the old ‘we inherited labor debt blah de blah’. Kezza was on him like a horny Jack Russell terrier, great stuff, Nelson won’t last until June.
marky marky @ 262 – What you seem to be saying is that the government should not contribute a cent to the education of kids going to a private school, even though their parents pay taxes just like the parents with kids at public schools, and that tertiary places should be awarded on the basis of family poverty, not academic achievement.
LOL. No wonder you consider us all right-wingers. No doubt even Marx is a fascist in your book.
Possum Comitatus @ 267
“Parents that provide a good education environment at the home will have their kids qualifying for university regardless of which type of school they attend.”
The best proof of that is how many children of immigrant families get to university. Mostly, their parents work multiple poorly paid jobs and do without – at the risk of being scorned as ‘rich’ by folk like markey – to give their kids the opportunity they didn’t have and encourage a high work ethic in their kids to ensure they can make the most of that opportunity.
Libs agree to apology. Great result for Australia.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/nelson-agrees-to-sorry/2008/02/06/1202233915448.html
GG
They had to be dragged kicking and screaming, not all are happy.
“While the practice was unacceptable now, many people who removed indigenous children from their families had the best of intentions”
Of course they did, many believed that it was inevitable that the aboriginal race was dying out.
Maverick Nationals senator Barnaby Joyce says the Rudd government has used the issue to play wedge politics. “This is gun-to-your-head type of politics which is really forcing a political point for advantage rather than trying to help indigenous people,” he said.
Wedge politics, OMG!
http://news.smh.com.au/mps-back-removal-of-some-indigenous-kids/20080206-1qkx.html
Mayo Feral- do not misconstrue my comments. I do not believe that university enrolments should be based on family poverty. I believe in equality of opportunity for all, for kids from public schools and elsewhere, thus if this was the case results would then determine university places.
As I stated last night why is it that private school students dominant places in Law and Medicine. No doubt because of better opportunities and money.
And yes asian students do tend to get into such places by parents working hard, yep lets make this people work hard whilst it would be better that you did not flog them to death.
I have worked with some of these people and seen their health problems and opportunities in life (travel) cars, food that they have gone without just for their children. And the pressure upon children succeeding is immense, and have heard of children suiciding or attempting such.
Your statements are a typical economic rationalist view of the world that says money should determine the way we live. Yep the wealthy do pay more taxes and if you suggest they deserve to get much more from governments as a result than the poor will never get anywhere because they pay little tax.
The views of people regarding funding private schools are bizzare. Why? because more kids attend public schools and generally come from low income households. Thus funding for these schools should be reduced as per normal because private schools take the pressure of government budgets, hence greater spending creates deficits. But predominately wealthy students attend private schools hence they deserve funding. So if public schools have predominately people from poorer backgrounds then they can do without- how do we expect these people to succeed without adequate funding?
As private schools predominately have students from wealthy families why do they deserve funding from governments? Check graphical results as evidence of private public schools attendance and income backgrounds
http://www.aeufederal.org.au/Debates/index2.html#ED and go to social makeup of schools based on income levels.
I also include a very article which looks at how the lack of funding on public schools and poor socio economic backgrounds contributes towards crime, health problems and prime reasons as to why these students do not attend university. Good home life is about having the resources to achieve results such as computers, food on the table, employment, job security being able to afford to attend sporting activities and be a part of society unfortunately their is a view here that good home life is easy sorry Mayo Feral good home life is about many things. Economic ratiionalism gone mad.
Go to link also: Free for all Is there a future for universal services?
Funding for private schools should not occur and i will continue my attacks upon it.
marky marky you seem to be under the delusion that governments spend more per private school student than public school student. That is incorrect. It varies slightly from school to school, but on average, private schools receive only 47% of the amount per student as a government school.
Overall, the 3 levels of government spend 78.4% of their combined (non tertiary) education budget on public schools, only 21.6% on private schools, despite private schools educating 31% of primary and secondary school kids.
And still you’re not happy. You want to rob their parents even more and have them pay 100% instead of 53%. Well, if you want to pay even more tax please continue your campaign. As someone once said, be careful what you wish for, you might get it.
Personally, I wouldn’t sent my kids to a private school, but if others want to reduce my tax burden I’m not going to complain.
Have been a way for months but is just like turning on ‘days of our lives’ – some characters and positions just don’t change.
Seems Marky still can’t come to terms with Howard’s loss. Yes, he is indeed a liberal man and enjoys nothing more than selling-down any Labor activity. The more inovative and sensible the activity the more repetitive and shrill the criticism.
Will be back in two years to catch up with the latest marky mark shrill complaints Labor. ;]
So Mayo Feral you are low income earner. If so than this tax burden problem may be of merit in your argument. Nonetheless Australia is one of the lowest taxed countries in the OECD and research has shown countries with high taxes have predominately better socio-economic outcomes. Read this article just as a precursor but if you want more i’ll get it.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/tim-colebatch/how-lowering-tax-can-make-us-all-poorer/2006/01/30/1138590438861.html
Yep i’ll gladly pay more tax. But in my view we need companies to pay higher taxes and the wealthy that is what progressive taxation is Mayo Feral.
It was Labor who reduced the taxation threshold in 1980’s from 60 percent of dollar for higher income earners to 47 cents. We need to get rid of fringe benefits taxes for company cars and other perks and decrease the perks for Ministers of the crown. And their are many other ways to create a fairer spending ratio. If we educated people in fairer way with fairer outcomes as said crime, health problems and many other social problems would be reduced.
Have a look at this article on policy outcomes and models based on western countries and scandanivan countries which i support signifcantly their outcomes are the way to go but instead with have this selfish view of i can acheive but you can’t and this seems to be your view Mayo Feral.
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=4088
What i support Kino are governments which have the courage to put policies in place which will create a better society. Kino read about some of socio- economic results of Scandanivan countries and ask why can’t we slowly head the same way. Yep i criticise and carp but i did mention yesterday that since being in Government Labor has closed down the Nauru detention centres and allowed most of detainees residence here , this is a fantastic outcome, the signing of the Kyoto Protocol also is a good policy outcome but results will now have to be shown- bad start by not stopping the Pulp Mill in Tassie.
If their are other achievements maybe you could enlighten me but to date i have not heard of anything else which overly pleases me. Kino just curious seeing you went overseas how do attend to offset those carbon emissions.
Arbie,
I didn’t read “kicking and screaming” into the comments by Ian Tuxworth and Shane Stone over the weekend. More, a re evaluation of their positon and a recognition that the time had come to settle the Apology so everyone can move on to trying to fix the real problems in indigenous matters.
Most people here are focussing on the politics (not a surprise, really). However, I am hopeful that there has been a real change of heart on the conservative side and as such, the apology is genuine.
In twenty years, the record will show that the vast majority of Parliamentarians supported the Apology. It will show us united as a nation in taking the first step to rectifying the terrible treatment meted out to our indigenous citizens.
John Howard was right on one thing. Sometimes the things that unite Australians are more important than the thing that divide us.
So Nelson will vote for the apology but doesn’t really agree with it.
Who’s tryoing to walk both sides of the street now?
GG
I agree it is good that the apology is to be on behalf of the parliament, not just the government but there are those in the libs still spreading misinformation.
Abbott said he thought that some kids should have been taken away and that this should not be apologised for.
I agree, and that is what the apology is about, to those who were taken away without good reason, but some on the lib side are even portaying that taking kids away because of mixed blood was misguided but not wrong because they thought they were doing right or it was the thinking of the times.
It is this sort of warped mentality that I disagree with, one that Howard expressed when he said that was the done thing then and was the thinking of the times, plenty of oldies reacted to that by saying I’m as old or older than you mate and I never thought like that or agreed with it.
Arbie,GG
latest twisting of the simple act of apologising
“Apology should be to ‘Separated Generations’: Liberal MP”
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2008/02/07/2156762.htm?section=justin
”
“I think separated is probably a better word than stolen personally,” he said.
Federal Opposition Indigenous Affairs spokesman Tony Abbott also questions the accuracy of the word “stolen”.
“Some kids were rescued, some kids were helped,” Mr Abbott said. ”
these bastards will never get it,no amount of contrition will hide their obvious UNAPOLEGITC feelings
ps
just for fun check out some of the comments- i thought the “deep south” was only in the USA
2c on education: money should not go to wealthy private schools that have no trouble charging high fee’s. While I personally have an issue with paying public funds into low income private schools there is also a real-politic issue at work – Catholic systemic schools (at the bottom of the private school pile) have been funded for some 40-odd years now and still provide a basic (I went to one and it was basic…) school education at low cost. It is still used by many low income families. There is a case for continued funding of these and other low-income/low-fee schools.
The issue of curriculum, if addressed as an issue of a standard curriculum across all schools, is not a problem, and they should have to abide by the same laws as everybody else in relation to discrimination, especially if they are going to receive public funding. I mentioned on a thread last year the situation of private schools providing services where no public school (or Department) is available or willing to provide those services (ie; remote indigenous schools) being funded. This can be extended across the basic curriculum to ensure that the needs of all school age children are met.
Finally, how to know which school to fund? Methods using the socio-economic status of parents based on where they live is deeply problematic – its no better than looking at a postcode, saying “oh, poor people live there” and handing over the money on that basis. The same goes for when you apply this to the location school (as if parents wont enrol their children even if they live miles away – Frensham springs to mind). This is obviously the most vexed question of all, but in part it should relate to school facilities available, level of school fee’s paid and the level of capitalisation within the school. Indeed, I would like to think that private schools should be funded on the basis that they do not charge any fee’s as in some European countries, but then we are approaching full public education with associated costs (another argument perhaps?).
Hmmm, slightly more than 2c, but there you go.
On the topic of polls – still no idea from anybody about a new Newspoll or NSW state poll?
Hi Arbie and Gusface,
There are a few days to go. But, I think we will get there with the Apology. You got to understand that repudiating a view of life you have lived for decades is not a simple process. Please feel their pain.
I acknowledge that Abbott is having a few problems. However as this old video says, “Words don’t come Easy’.
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Words+Don%27t+Come+Easy&search_type=&search=Search
GG
You’re right, I feel their pain and realise they are hurting, and hurting bad some of them.
I agree we should encourage every step, no matter how little, back towards humanity.
Howard considered for Order of garter
Couldn’t he just borrow downers ?
290
Greeensborough Growler said:
“I acknowledge that Abbott is having a few problems. However as this old video says, “Words don’t come Easy’.”
The faithful must be very glad he left the seminary because the milk of human kindness doesn’t seem to flow strongly in him.
Actually Martin B,
I think you’ve got it the wrong way around. Nelson does really agree with the apology but renounced it in December as part of getting the leadership.
Now he’s had to spend the last two weeks unravelling that pragmatic position.
I’m glad the Libs (or most of them) will be supporting it, I think it’s important to make unanimous.
“to make the apology unanimous”.
On the funding of schools debate, is everyone here happy that Julia Gillard’s plan to maintain el Rodente’s school funding model ensures that the tax payer continues to fund the Exclusive Brethren schools to the tune of $18M over the next four years? Only Exclusive Brethren members can attend the schools and the children are brainwashed into thinking Intelligent Design is an ultra-radical heathen concept at odds with the flawless creationism model. I believe Ruddski referred to the EB as a “dangerous cult” and included special criticism of their schools. I will be interested if that was all puffed-up rhetoric for the benefit of the voters, or whether he’s actually going to show some leadership on the issue.
Diogenes – Are the EB that much different to other religions in this regard? Are religious schools even required to teach evolution theory? I’m guessing most of the emphasis is on the religious view and ET gets, at best, only a passing mention.
And could any government withhold funding based on a religion’s beliefs? IMHO, that’s a can of worms that shouldn’t be touched under any circumstances.
It’s but a tiny little gaffe really, but did anyone hear Malcolm Turnbull on Insiders this morning? Did you notice he called the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank “Bob” Bernanke?
Poor Malcontent, jilted for leader over policies they are now following, and he’s stuck trying to explain why Krudd and SwanDive have rogered the economy…ah, that’s before they’ve even set foot into the new parliament! LOL
Mal’s got a big problem: he does not know how to shut up! Nor which battles to leave well and truly alone.
God, Horatio Hornblower almost looks like a class act in comparison, and that takes some doing.
For those not overly interested in the comings and goings of the US Presidential Election campaign there is some interesting reading provided by Laurie Oakes from March 2006 through to the present that will evoke a lot of memories of the historical time-line and events of the recent electoral jousting in this country.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/oakes
I found it fascinating to compare what was perceived to result from various actions by the parties, especially the Liberals, and what eventually did come to pass.
Almost enough there to put together with appropriate linkages etc and publish as an historical record of probably the most fascinating election campaign since the war.
and windsuckhole has just released his second volume of his “rightard view of white oz”
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/02/10/windschuttle-should-be-ashamed/
now we know why Howard had his naughty boy grin in Sydney last week
Hands up if you will miss his charasmatic personality, heroic stands and all round niceness?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23194566-601,00.html
Sob.
I”m going to miss him terribly, just as I miss Johnny.
How can one get as emotional over a fellow like Mr. Nelson, who is so very important, so very important that he thinks he is the most important person Mr. Rudd should consult?
I felt so much more empathy for relatively unassuming, self deprecating and therefore more loveable souls such as our Petey and our Johnny.
Sniff.