5.00pm. Missouri now being called for McCain, who leads Huckabee and Romney 33.1 per cent to 31.8 per cent and 29.3 per cent. Democratic contest still too close to call in Missouri, but Obama holds a slight lead and the trend has been favouring him for some time.
4.44pm. Fox calls Alaska for Obama. Slow progress in New Mexico.
4.36pm. Everyone now calling Arizona for Clinton.
4.25pm. Fox and ABC call Colorado for Romney.
4.23pm. CBS, Fox and ABC (though not CNN) calling McCain for California.
4.21pm. Obama has hit the lead in Missouri, 49.3 per cent to 48.7 per cent with 98 per cent reporting, after a number of outlets earlier called it for Clinton. Given that Democratic delegates are allocated proportionately, this is mostly of academic interest. Not so the state’s Republican race, a winner-takes-all contest in which McCain leads Huckabee and Romney 33.3 per cent to 32.0 per cent and 29.5 per cent, also with 98 per cent reporting. Fox and ABC are calling it for McCain, but not CNN.
4.13pm. NBC and Fox are both calling California for Clinton.
4.12pm. CBS calls Montana for Romney.
3.56pm. CNN now calling Utah for Obama: he leads 53-41 with 37 per cent reporting.
3.50pm. No significant results yet from Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego or Sacramento.
3.38pm. Clinton leads 55-33 in California with 10 per cent counted, but pronounced regional variations can presumably be expected from a state that boasts both Malibu and Compton.
3.37pm. CNN calling Minnesota for Romney.
3.32pm. Fox’s call of Utah for Obama might also have been premature (I heard it on Fox News Radio; not sure it ever appeared as called on the website). Only 13 per cent reporting and Obama leads 45-44. Presumably the Fox call was based on an exit poll.
3.29pm. Clinton leads 51-40 in Arizona with 48 per cent reporting, but nobody’s calling it.
3.25pm. Fox’s call of Tennessee for Huckabee may have been premature (they’re still saying it on Fox News Radio, but not on the website). He leads McCain 34.1 per cent to 32.4 per cent with 83 per cent of precincts reporting.
3.20pm. McCain gaining on Huckabee in Missouri: now 33-32-29, compared with 35-32-27 half an hour ago.
3.15pm. Fox calls Idaho for Obama and Missouri for Clinton.
3.15pm. Fox calls Colorado for Obama.
3.10pm. Fox says Clinton wins American Samoa, and Romney wins Montana.
3.03pm. Fox News Radio reports McCain doing better than Romney in California from absent votes, but Romney doing better in normal votes. Clinton just ahead of Obama.
3.00pm. Also not sure why nobody giving Romney North Dakota, where he leads McCain, Paul and Huckabee 36-23-21-20.
2.58pm. Not sure why nobody calling Montana for Romney: he leads McCain, Paul and Huckabee 36-24-23-17 with 89 per cent of precincts reporting.
2.53pm. Nobody calling Missouri Democratic either, but Clinton leads 53-44 with 68 per cent of precincts reporting.
2.48pm. No one is calling the Missouri Republican race: Huckabee leads McCain and Romney 35-32-27 with 66 per cent precincts reporting.
2.46pm. A couple of outlets calling Georgia for Huckabee.
2.38pm. Fox calls Arizona for McCain and Tennessee for Huckabee.
2.29pm. Fox calls Utah for Obama.
2.25pm. Minnesota being called for Obama, who seems to be picking up a lot of the smaller states. Expectations he would perform well in caucuses have apparently been confirmed, boding well for him in Colorado and Idaho.
2.21pm. Fox News Radio and CNN call Connecticut for Obama.
2.15pm. Huckabee giving a speech, and not sounding of a mind to withdraw.
2.14pm. ABC calls Kansas for Obama.
2.08pm. Fox calls Oklahoma for McCain.
2.06pm. ABC also calling Utah for Romney; no surprise of course that he should carry the Mormon state.
2.03pm. Fox News projects Obama as winner of North Dakota, giving him seven states to Clinton’s six, and Utah to Romney.
1.44pm. Romney coming third behind Huckabee in many more places than expected. Almost time to call the nomination for McCain, pending one or two larger states.
1.31pm. CNN, ABC and Fox News Radio say Obama has won Alabama, which was lineball in late polling.
1.21pm. Fox calls Alabama for Huckabee.
1.18pm. Chap on Fox News Radio says McCain has won New York.
1.09pm. Fox calls Delaware for Obama.
1.07pm. CNN calls New York for Clinton, which is no surprise.
12.55pm. Fox calls Massachusetts for Clinton.
12.54pm. Chat on Fox News Radio indicates McCain is looking very good overall.
12.50pm. Winner-takes-all Republican contest for Delaware called for McCain, which was considered likely but not certain.
12.44pm. Arkansas being called for Huckabee, who is clearly doing better than expected.
12.36pm. Tennessee also called for Clinton, which was expected.
12.35pm. CNN calls Arizona for Clinton and Huckabee. The latter would be a big surprise if accurate; polls had Clinton with only a narrow lead.
12.29pm. The Times on Democratic exit polls:
The AP survey’s findings, leaked to The Times tonight before polls closed, should be treated with caution because they have been wrong before. But the early findings showed Mr Obama winning Georgia by 74 points to 25, Alabama by 59 to 37, Illinois by 69 to 29 and Delaware by 55 to 42. He also had narrower leads, possibly within the margin of error, in New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Missouri. The poll indicated Mrs Clinton was leading by seven points in New York – less than expected – and Tennessee where she had an 11 point advantage, according to the poll. In Oklahoma and Arkansas she was shown as more than 30 points ahead. In California, she is shown just ahead, by perhaps as little as three percentage points.
12.13pm. CNN is also calling Illinois for Obama and Oklahoma for Clinton on the basis of exit polling, though these of course are not winner-takes-all contests. On the Republican side, Illinois (district-level PR), Connecticut (winner takes all) and New Jersey (winner takes all) are being called for McCain, and Massachusetts (two-tier PR) for Romney. All of this is consistent with pre-poll expectations.
11.33am. Further to the previous entry: The Raw Story tells us “Geraghty’s leaks of exit poll data have not always proved accurate. For instance, his information before New Hampshire polls closed showed Senator Barack Obama defeating Senator Hillary Clinton.”
11.23am. More on exit polls from Jim Geraghty at the National Review:
The early wave in California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent. Fascinating and fun as it is, I remind my readers that this doesn’t tell us that much, as we don’t know what the district-by-district breakdown is. Also, there are three million absentee votes that I’m pretty sure are not included in this. So while these numbers are nice to hear for McCain fans, I take them with even more caution, skepticism and grains of salt than usual. Missouri: Romney 34 percent, McCain 32 percent, Huckabee 25 percent. Winner take all. If these numbers hold – and these are early voters, the later waves may change the final a bit — it’s a big, big win for Romney. Georgia: Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 31 percent, McCain 30 percent. Now on to the NYC-metro-area states: New York: McCain 46, Romney 35, Huckabee 10 percent. New Jersey: McCain 48 percent, Romney 35, Huckabee 9 percent. Connecticut: McCain 50 percent, Romney 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent. More or less what we expected. Now the big Mitt states: The early wave in Utah: Romney 91 percent, McCain 5 percent, Huckabee 1 percent. I think I’m ready to call that one. Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35. But in McCain’s home state… Arizona: McCain 44, Romney 39, Huckabee 8. That’s a heck of a lot closer than I had expected. On to the South, where the numbers at this point look good for Huckabee… Alabama: Huckabee 42 percent, McCain 33 percent, Romney 20 percent. Tennessee: Huckabee 34, McCain 28, Romney 23. Arkansas: Huckabee 33, McCain 21, Romney 19. Oklahoma: McCain 34, Huckabee 32, Romney 27. A barnburner! Delaware: Romney 43, McCain 34, Huckabee 18. Not a big state, but it’s winner take all, so I’m sure Team Romney would take it. Illinois: McCain 47, Romney 31, Huckabee 15.
11.14am. Various media outlets calling Georgia for Obama purely on the basis of exit polls.
11.10am. Jason Zengerle at New Republic on exit polls:
The perils of posting these are obvious (President Kerry and all that), but the exit poll results that I’ve seen show: Obama trouncing Hillary in Georgia, Alabama, and Illinois; Hillary trouncing Obama in Arkansas and Oklahoma; Hillary with leads in New York and Tennessee; and Obama with leads in Delaware and Utah (although there’s only one wave of exit polls for Utah). Everywhere else–including Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Arizona, and California–is extremely close.
8.20am (Eastern Australian daylight time). This post will be used to cover today’s Super Tuesday developments, though I don’t promise that my coverage will be greatly timely or comprehensive. We’ll see how we go. The action will begin in earnest when polls in most of the eastern states close at 8pm US eastern time – noon eastern Australian daylight time. Polls in all-important California close three hours later. The one conspicuous exception is West Virginia, which uniquely held a state presidential convention today rather than a primary or caucuses. This has already wrapped up, resulting in Mick Huckabee securing the 18 delegates under the winner-takes-all vote. Huckabee won on the second round of voting after trailing Mitt Romney at the first by 464 votes (41 per cent) to 375 (33 per cent), with John McCain on 176 (16 per cent) and Ron Paul on 118 (10 per cent). Paul was then excluded, and at this point McCain’s supporters were reportedly instructed to throw their weight behind Huckabee to thwart Romney. This delivered victory to Huckabee with 567 (51.5 per cent) to Romney’s 521 (47.4 per cent).
1,182 Comments
Interesting news on Huckabee and the successful blocking of Morman Mitt by McCain’s supporters
Is anyone else having problems with The Australian’s attempt at a poll tracker for Super Tuesday at the following link?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/trackerstage5.swf
Its a bit of mess and no help at all
And the winner is….
Mike Huckabee for West Virginia!
(Can ya hear the banjos, can you hear them? They’re playing the Hymn of the Republic, it’s bewdiful!)
Huckabee must be feeling good about all those delegates. 18 more means he is still how far behind. Sorry I can’t see why he is still in the race.
I’m with Tommy:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=A0WTUeIb4KhHe5IAbgAHcggF
WSJ reports late surge for Obama in markets:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120223896543344865.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Have also heard reports of voter machines malfunctioning, and not being delivered to polling places, when will they get rid of those abominations on the face of democracy.
If you believe Hillary is going to become the Democratic Candidate and presidency, get on now
Odds are fantastic for what the medium term trends show. I also would have though California would be neck and neck, but Obama now has a clear lead in the markets.
I’m happy just to sit back and enjoy the show.
7 California polling analysis
http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2008/02/california-super-tuesday-pollster.html
I agree the odds on Hillary are fantastic! If you do the sums, even if Obama gets a majority in California, he will still trail overall thanks to Clinton’s clear lead in NY, Mass, Conn, etc. Why are people so convinced Obama will win today? I am not a Clinton fan but I think she will come out of today level at worst, and still in front overall.
Basil Fawlty:
“Have also heard reports of voter machines malfunctioning, and not being delivered to polling places, when will they get rid of those abominations on the face of democracy.”
Was just reading a description of a somewhat chaotic voting attempt in LA: http://cosmicvariance.com/2008/02/05/chaos-at-the-polling-station/
I continue to be astounded at the use of these machines, but the whole process (from that description and others) seems a little … amateurish?
3
Stephen Connor
He’s there to spoil for McCain and do deals. He is, after all, a politician, not a preacher (that’s just a very clever disguise)
Apparently the first count in WV had Romney a nose in front, so they huddled, and McCains mob went to Hcuk (Reg Trage Mark).
That’s why he’s there.
Kirribilli Removals at 9
very clever tactic
Maybe we should keep this quote from Gore Vidal uppermost in our minds today:
As societies grow decadent, the language grows decadent, too. Words are used to disguise, not to illuminate, action: you liberate a city by destroying it. Words are to confuse, so that at election time people will solemnly vote against their own interests.
(it was on last night’s thread)
When I saw this quote from a voter in Delaware, it reminded me:
“I voted for McCain because I think he’s basically a centrist”
And compared to Genghis Khan, that’s probably true…or truish, maybe!
8 Socrates, people are speaking on two levels here. There is the individual race in say california where bookies pay on the winner by percentage of vote won at one level and then there is the bigger picture level where a win would constitute the number of delegates won.
One thing we can be sure of if Obama does ultimately take this race all the way to the convention and win it, is that Hillary Clinton will turn into a She Wolf and stalk every senior Democrat who sided with Obama, she’ll haunt the lives of every celebrity that backed him, she’ll be acid to anyone who declined her, and she will be the greatest impediment to an Obama Presidency that could possibly be imagined.
One thing no one forgets about HRC is that she NEVER forgets.
I think a delegate-split today on the Dem side (or something close to a split) will put Obama in a great position. If the Dem race goes down to the wire, it will go down to the superdelegates (20% of the pool). O
ne would expect many of them to vote for the candidate most like to beat McCain: That ain’t HRC.
“One thing no one forgets about HRC is that she NEVER forgets.”
But if she loses this race she will be forgotEN.
Hearing rumours that Huckabee has announced his intended Head of Homeland Security…..
Chuck Norris
EGad.
My source (a work mate) insists he is not joking….
14
Smile
oh don’t worry, she can hang around the senate for a very long time yet!
I don’t know if it will happen, but trying to imagine Hillary getting jilted for a charismatic younger man, is just too frightening to imagine. She hung onto the coattails of that other charismatic politician, the one she was supposed to be married to, and it nearly killed her. To be done over by another one is almost Greek Tragedy, and they NEVER have happy endings.
16
He has put forward Chuck Norris for Secretary of Homeland Security AND Secretary of Defense. Saw the footage on the news late last night.
Scary.
codger-from the last thread re Macca’s mental state. There are basically four types of mental illness; the personality disorders, the “neuroses”, the “psychoses” and organic.
We can rule out a full blown personality disorder as they never achieve long lasting success. Of the neuroses, he has some odd thoughts including a large collection of superstitious lucky objects but not enough for a diagnosis. He is clearly not schizophrenic and I doubt he is a depressive or bipolar and still functioning as well as he us at 71. That leaves the organic.
The most likely of these is Alzheimer’s, which a 71 yo male has a 12% chance of having. He is emotionally labile, has poor speech patterns and is very vague but my impression is he hasn’t changed significantly in these. That’s not to say he doesn’t have early Alzheimer’s or that he couldn’t develop it, but interestingly very few famous and mentally active people develop Alzheimer’s (there is thought to be some protection due to high degrees of stimulation).
If I had to call him anything, I’d say he had histrionic personality traits. Here is an in depth article about his mental state which agrees.
http://www.csbsju.edu/uspp/McCain/McCain’s_’histrionic’_personality.html
KR, in the Senate yes. But I think losing the nomination now would end forever HRC’s chance of becoming Prez though…
Sorry that link is a bit dodgy. Here is the punchline which is a political truism in the US.
“As a parting thought—lest we come too quickly to conclusions concerning John McCain’s character—consider this: With the exception of Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter, outgoing candidates have prevailed in every presidential contest since Franklin D. Roosevelt.”
In terms of extroversion of the remaining three candidates, I’d suggest Macca is the most and Hillary is the least, but I’d be interested in others thoughts.
18
Smile
Stone dead, one would have to think. She’s done her time in the Senate and grown her base and established the networks, to lose it now would finish her and the beast it would turn her into would not be pretty (that was the point I was musing over).
lol MSNBC calls Georgia for Obama with no votes counted yet. Must mean a big win.
On last night’s markets, the report on the US services sector was a shock to the system:
“This is an indication for the first time that the bulk of the economy is contracting,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR. “It is sending people into recession panic mode here.”
…it’s one thing for manufacturing to slow, but when the services sector shrinks, that’s the BIG bit of the economy.
This bit of very gloomy news may have some impact on the voters, at least remind them of where the Republican primacy has brought them.
On the battle of the issues (economy, security, reform) if Obama gets the nod, he’d would have to be much happier to be up against McCain than Romney. If there’s a rapid slide to recession McCain surely doesn’t have the conservative economic policy status to capitalise (which Romney could do in the public mind given some spinning of his time as a venture capitalist).
KR
One of my work colleagues just got back from the US two weeks ago and said there was a noticeable mod of pessimism on the streets regarding the economy. Even people like cab drivers etc seemed to realise that the were in recession now but the government had piled up such a huge debt thanks to the war in Iraq etc that there would be no easy solution. As I have said before the US is in recession now, and I think most people there know it; they just haven’t had it statistically confirmed. Any POTUS candidate who can look economically credible and articulate a solution will be on a winner.
William,
86-13 is the Afro-American exit poll data.
24 Cnn also called GA for Obama
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/
Thank you, Beentoolong.
Morning all.
First of all, a ramble. I think that at the end of the day there will be two competing claims: momentum vs inevitability. Few doubt that Clinton will be leading by the end of the night, the question is by how much. She will be spinning the result as ‘game over, so everyone fall in line now’ while Obama will be saying ‘it’s only just begun – look how far we’ve come.’ Who wins this mini battle remains to be seen.
Second, while it’s momentarily peaceful, I thought I would check as to what websites we all have boomarked/earmarked for the day, if not the year. Having eventually gotten sick of trawling through a dozen links to find the sites I wanted, as well as forgetting, I figured a quick bookmark at the right place saves a lot of time and energy. The links below are specifically addressed at the respective political centres.
CNN
Fox
MSNBC
RCP
Trailhead
Electoral Vote
Oh, and of course PB.
Anyone else have any decent sites which I have missed?
Obama is comprehensively winning Georgia – 66% to 28% at present.
I don’t know if its decent, and I don’t know which way its biased but there’s
http://www.drumwaster.com/
First votes in from GA
http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2008_0205/swall.htm
small lead to Obama
I’m surprised that New Jersey is close
5% of precincts are in in GA. Obama leads 50:41. This is still early but it dosen’t suggest the crushing of Clinton that was predicted.
What are your predictions for the Democrats and Republicans candidates Possum?
And any predictions for surprises in any of the states?
Cnn predicted Republican winner for MA looks strange.
Statisticaly why I believe it will be close over the 22 states delegates elected
10 states have close Polls or unfortunately widely comflicting ones =54%
including Masachussets , Missouri & New Jersey & California being =38%
So almost 50% of the delegates are in States where its maybe close and primarily will be chosen proportionally meaning close Clinton/Obama delegate numbers each wins will be close
BUT IF the first 3 states Polls all swing significantly to Clinton as SOME Polls have indicated there’s only approx 35 to 40 net delegates for her plus or minus California
5 States are had NO Polls but only represent =6%
Idaho,Kansas, New Mexico , noth Dakato & Demo’s abroad
7 states have huge margins for either Clinton or Obama based on the non weighted average of the latest Polls
For Clinton
New York , Minesota , Oklahoma & Tenessee =24%
For Obama
Illinois ,Georgia & Utah=16%
In these 7 large Poll margin states , the net gain for Clinton on the latest Polls
would be 25 to 35 delegates
I can not therefore see Clinton winning by more than 120 delegates IF everything goes her way …my prediction of 50 is more likely
Shock of the night – Mcain is picking up the military vote, Huckabee is picking up the small town, white, racoon hat wearing vote and Romney is getting the wealthy white uppity vote.
Anyone know which way the evangelicals are breaking?
Asanque – predictions!?!
I’m as bewildered and lost as the rest of us!
stats are based solely proportional without the limiting factor of district limits
CNN has made a number of calls including New Jersey for McCain.
Presumably the same factors that apply in early calls of Australian elections (namely small rural booths reporting before big urban ones) could apply in the US? That would explain the relatively close Georgia results, at least – one would imagine that Obama’s support would be considerably greater in Atlanta (with its large African-American population) than in the rural areas.
Possum, we do know for certain that the evangelicals will not be supporting Romney. Out of McCain and Huck they prefer Huck.
I haven’t been following all the states, but has a trend emerged?
It seems from CNN that Hillary is winning many of the states. But were these as the polls indicated?
Obama is winning Connecticut which was supposed to be line ball.
Clinton is comfortably ahead in New Jersey.
Which are the critical states?
California is the key I presume, but any others?
I know why Huckabee is doing well in the boondocks – Chuck Norris for Defense Secretary and Rick Flair (Wooooooooooooooooooooo!) for Homeland Security did it.
Someone forgot to tell the hillbillies that he was joking and that Ric Flair wasnt really going to be putting the figure four on the local terrirrrsts, or liberals or whatever their calling them these days.
What local TV coverage of this have we got? Foxnews is running it, SkyNews Active has a US ABC television feed – anywhere else?
The Republicans should just run with Chuck Norris and Arnie for President/VP.
Voter turnout appears to be favouring the Dems – by as much as 2:1 in some states.
SBS 12:30 to 15:30
Ah, this is what I was looking for.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/02/05/what_to_watch_for_tonight.html
Advantage Clinton:
Arkansas, New York, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee
Advantage Obama:
Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Minnesota, Kansas, North Dakota
No Clear Favorite:
Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Missouri, Delaware, Utah, Massachusetts, American Samoa, Democrats Abroad
Well so far there is not a lot of the late surge that the opinion polls were saying was there for Obama. Clinton seems to be doing far better in more states.
So at present – the no clear favourites are running 2-1 for Hillary, and she also is leading in 1 of Obama’s advantages being Alabama.
Actually its now 2-2 in the undecideds, and Obama catching up in Masschusetts.
“AP updated 4:37 p.m. PT, Tues., Feb. 5, 2008 WASHINGTON – Democratic presidential candidate HRC was strongly supported by Hispanics and people seeking an experienced candidate, but held only modest leads with women and whites, two of her usual strengths, in early national exit polls Tuesday. A coalition of black, young white and higher-income voters were flocking to Senator BHO.”
Yup, Mike was hip to that too.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/doonesbury;_ylt=AguaX6diDJ.qpgPEvTfTknMHcggF
[Anyone else have any decent sites which I have missed?] Yeah, Max at 31, this one’s de rigeur:
http://politicalwire.com/
Word from the war-rooms is that the evangelicals are breakin’ up completely when confronted with the possibility of a woman or an African-American Preznit. It doesn’t fit with their Rapture as an exit-strategy thing.
Hahaha… this is insane. Makes you appreciate how easy our own political system is to follow.
Thanks asanque – finally a site which tells us if things are going as predicted. Sheesh.
New Jersey has Guiliani running second to Grandpa? They clearly don’t read the news in NJ.
Here are the exit polls for the Dems without voting intentions.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225996
Wow 23% undecided up to 3 days prior to the vote. Breaking about even too.
Whatever happened to all those Hillary booster claiming it would be over by now…Adam?
Alabama just went Obama’s way, big time.
So now its back to a break even scenario.
Looks like no clear winner, although California will be the key.
MSNBC have spent the last five minutes convincing themselves that Huckabee is going to be the VP, given his very strong performance tonight.
It would actually make a lot of sense, and does look pretty likely.
Out of curiousity, can anyone find any other coverage’s online? One of the few times I actually wish I had foxtel…
Great summaries and coverage by the way William.
On the other side, Huckerbee doing better then expected.
62 That looks more likely than what they had posted earlier
I know it early but it appears that Obama is beating Clinton in several New England states would there be a reason for this for I would have though this was her heartland.
CNN has coverage at http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/
Kennedy and Kerry?
Thanks Pancho
Here’s a brilliant resource. Go into Google. Click on the news link. You can personalise the news for elections. You get a truck load of news sites plus videos maps blogs follow the candidates and more. Brilliant!!! If you are a political animal you’ll love this site!
Possum-this site gives the Dem and Repug exit polls.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660890/
And the evangelicals are voting for McCain in some states and Huck in others. None are voting Romney.
Huckabee would be easy to destroy – and lumbering Grandpa McC with Hell-fire Huck would be a strategic catastrophe – so they’ll probably do it.
On the other side the press has been getting excited today about a Hillbilly/Obama ticket – which also be a strategic catastrophe – and is also therefore a possibility.
US politics is such fun!
BMW
I think Obama is only leading in Connecticut, by a small margin. The NE state with most delegates is Massachusets, where Clinton is ahead about 60/40. Which other NE states have a clear Obama lead?
Though I think Clinton’s “heartland” is really NY/NJ with Arkansas (original home) thrown in. Likewise, Illinois is obviously Obama’s home turf plus neighbouring states like Minnesota.
Exit poll results in three states. Absolute nail-biter. I’ve got a feeling it’s not giong to be over today for the Dems. Not enough big wins for Billary.
MA: Obama 47 percent, Clinton 46 percent
MO: Clinton 44 percent, Obama 44 percent
NJ: Clinton 48 percent, Obama 47 percent
Level of independent voters in California up from 12 to 23%. Inds can only vote for Dems, could be a big boost for Obama. But there have been issues reported with Independents getting papers etc: http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/02/05/ca_some_ballot_trouble_for_ind_2.html
Another bunch of polls just closed, now we might see how well Obama is going in some states where he is favoured to win.
Interesting to see the different degrees of caution of networks in calling results, based on the same information.
For example, CBS has the edlegate score at Clinton 447 Obama 392. At the same time CNN had it as Clinton 259 Obama 199.
CNN goes out on a limb: ‘CNN projects Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic primary race in New York, one of the key states voting on Super Tuesday.’
I think I read somewhere Minnesota is pledged delegates only. I don’t know how that effects things though.
Minnisota was one of Hilliar’s large margin states !!!
although the poll was 10 days ago……
If Masachussets , Missouri & New Jersey go Obama will win the day
Wow, if CNN is calling NY already then it must be a pretty bloody big victory
Diogenes (75)
Where are you gettign those numbers from? CBS has Massachusets as Clinton 58 Obama 39. Or am I getting my state prefixes mixed up? (MA = Massachusets?)
Interesting from NYtimes: ‘More trickling in from Georgia, which was called long ago for Mr. Obama, in case you’re just catching up. Here’s what we’re just focusing on: it seems that women went 2-to-1 for Mr. Obama.’
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/05/live-blogging-the-democratic-contests/index.html?hp
The big loser today is Romney. The only win so far is in his home state and not by much. happily, Mass is one of the few with proportional delegates so even his one win won’t help much. Here today, gone tomorrow.
The Votemasters site http://www.electoral-vote.com has gone into meltdown not surprising really.
83 Socrates-
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/super_tuesday_exit_polls.php
As someone said earlier, this really is quite insane. Imagine if you were a candidate or adviser!
Ron
On both CNN and CBS Clinton is ahead in both Massachusets and New Jersey. She is also ahead in Missouri although the margin is not decisive.
Chris B Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
I think I read somewhere Minnesota is pledged delegates only. I don’t know how that effects things though.
Chris
Minnisota has 72 unpledged delegates up for grabs plus 16 pledged
source CNN site
89 Ron Ok thanks Ron. Don’t know what I was reading then.
CNN has New Jersey showing Clinton 14% ahead of BHO. Where are the numbers showing it to be close?
Ferny- The latest exit polls at pollster have Clinton/Obama as 48/47 in NJ.
SurveyUSA is looking pretty accurate atm
Exit polling in the US = Morgan in Australia = want to buy some magic beans?
94
asanque Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
SurveyUSA is looking pretty accurate atm
Would not wish for that !!
Clinton / Obama
California SurveyUSA Feb. 3 53% 41%
California SurveyUSA Feb. 4 52% 42%
92 Ferny Grover. Google has the same with 18% counted.
that margin is greater than the best Clinton Poll margin for NY
one hopes this is the higher income districts
correction NJ
Not that I know anything about Californian voters, but imho Hillary should be clear favourite and those numbers look about right. There are also apparently a lot of early absentee votes that should favour Hillary. I’d think Hillary will win California with a reasonable margin.
I’d love to be wrong though.
This comment on Drumwaster is interesting:
Quick note from one who knows: the early results are obtained from so-called “absentee” (”Vote By Mail”) ballots which have already been counted, but the results cannot be released until the polls close.
That is why you can have all those votes in and counted the instant the polls close.
Posted by Drumwaster on 02/05 at 06:34 PM
Perhaps an early lead to Clinton would reflect the higher support she had during the lead-up phase? i.e., this would likely not capture Obama’s come back very well.
I’m going to go out on a limb (not) and call today for Clinton. Obama would need to win big in California to turn today around from here IMO.
Dunno about that Smile. Strategically speaking, the ‘inevitable candidate’ is looking, at best, just ahead after Super Tuesday, with money, press emphasis and endorsements going against her.
Forget what I said earlier about the Democrat turnout being 2:1 over the Reps. It’s now 5:1 in some states. If I were GOP I would be somewhat troubled by this.
By winning New York McCain has picked up 101 delegates in one hit.
CBS is now calling Clinton as winning Ark., Okla., Tenn., Mass., N.J., & N.Y. and Obama winning Ill., Ga., Ala. & Del. Delaware is a small state with few delegates. Ill, Mass, NJ and NY are large delegate states. If this trend continues Clinton will claim a win unless Obama wins California, in which case it will be fairly close, although Clinton will still have a lead greater than the number of delegates Edwards holds.
One thing becoming apparent – The Democrat nomination will still be wide open after today’s counts.
Obama seems to be benefitting from good delegate counts even in some of the states with majority of votes for Clinton, and will most likely be well within range overall. California should also be close in delegates even if Clinton wins the % of votes. Go Obama.
asanque
then you will faith in Zogby Pollster !
California Zogby Feb. 3 40% 46%
California Zogby Feb. 4 36% 49%
I think both Pollsters are wrong re delegates won in California & they’ll be 20 to 30 net delgates in it
due to the strange odd number district allocations Terminator’s wife’s late endorsement to Obama a Kennedy clan & the trends since Dec
but do prefer Zogby !
So, 90 minutes after the initial poll closing rush, we seem to know the following:
- McCain is now almost certain to be the Republican nominee
- Romney is getting thumped, and will disappear into obscurity
- Huckabee now suddenly has a claim to fame, and a good shot at VP
and…
- Clinton is going to win the day, as expected
- The victory is nowhere near the thrashing needed to force Obama out
- The point of interest will be whether the party now falls behind Clinton or lets the race run on for a little longer, and whether Obama can now keep his momentum going.
The danger for Obama here is that as of tonight, the Republican nomination will now be settled, bar the formalities. The fact the primaries were held so early is an advantage for the Democrats, but the fact will remain that the party in general will NOT want their primary battle to go on for another four months. One way or the other they want this over as soon as practical.
104 Ferny Grover. Makes you wonder how on earth McCain is ahead in some polls.
Hillary should end the day ahead, and Obama with the momentum… with almost 800 unpledged superdelegates, this could very well go all the way to the convention floor. Now THAT woud be fun..
I wonder what the odds you would get right now for Huckabee finishing above Romney today? He might be in with a shot, looking at the GOP States to start counting – I’d only expect Romney to win Utah (derr).
Max , keep the faith
still believe Hillary will win by 50 (after a scotch) and NO MORE than 120
there’s STILL 1455 delegates up for grabs after today plus the 800 super delegates
Obama will continue after today still with a chance
No real surprises so far. Although Clinton won MA more easily then I would have expected.
aanque
Kennedy lost me when he cleverly got onto Obama’s wagon far too late & has hurt Obama in Kennedy’s own state
For the sake of whoever wins the Democratic nomination, lets hope Huckabee is Republican VP nomination. Smiling country boy my ass! Do a little digging on that man’s time in office and there is a nasty past and a lot of dirt to throw. Plus he could barely spell economy, let alone fix the one George broke.
Oklahoma being called for McCain
Socrates would you prefer the former Governor of florida …the ‘chads’ king
Bush’s brother as VP instead
oh , the nightmare scenario….mcCain AND Bush !
Ron and Asanque
Regarding Massachusets, unfortunately for Obama I must agree. That is one of the reasons I have been skeptical about Obama’s real chances in recent weeks. I think people like Kennedy endorsing you could be dangerously like a Labor figure here getting an endorsement from Mark Latham – a famous but divisive figure that might cost you more votes than it wins. Also, there have been so many celebrities jumping on the Obama bandwagon, that it seemed like overkill to me. Surely some voters must wish they would all just shut up and let them make their own decision.
Propaganda from the Obama camp. Call me the Minister for Information.
– They are winning states by a dominant amount and losing by smaller margins.
– Wait for the caucus states – their organization is better there.
– She should be winning her home state by more. The margin is comparable to her margin in Michigan.
Interesting to hear that of those in the GOP calling themselves ‘very conservative’, McCain is getting 19% of the vote. Romney was on top with 47, Huckabee had the rest.
Which seems to be in line with what the media is saying. Makes a nice change…
Ron
Hehe that is the nightmare scenario for the Republicans. Anything that links their 2008 candidate to the train wreck of Bush’s presidency is the kiss of death.
116 Socrates Remember Dan Quayle? But he couldn’t spell. That didn’t stop him becoming VP.
oh , the nightmare scenario….McCain AND Jeb Bush as VP !
sorry to scare you Socrates
you’re right about overkill endorsements Socrates
I would have advised to have had none so the focus was on Obama EXCEPT
getting Edwards to come out as the only endorsee (unless he’s unwilling ?)
“Propaganda from the Obama camp.”
I think they have overplayed their hand in the past week by projecting late momentum as being possible of delivering a victory today…
#102 – Smile – I have called on Hillary long time ago. If Obama cannot get closed to Hillary in Mass. after the endorsement of the big four in Mass., namely Kerry, Kennedys and the Boston Mayor, then he cannot win.
It is now clear Hillary will win the big States, incl. Kalifornia. She also wins Edwards’ votes, big slice of women and latinos.
Obama will carry on, he must carry on but the game is over for Obama. Love you dreamers, but his time will come as the constellation is not in alignment for Barrack this time, yet. Patience, Barrack, patience.
Long time without posting, but I couldn’t resist with the spate of Super Tuesday action. It seems Huckabee is doing very well in the Deep South (i.e. Alabama and Georgia) as well as breaking even or doing better than Romney in other conservative Southern states such as Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Prior to Super Tuesday, I would have thought these would have been Romney’s strongholds, with the more liberal states (NY, MA and CT) McCain’s strong states. Given Huckabee’s strong showing in these states, and the winner take all style of the Republican race, even at this early stage signs aren’t good for Romney’s campaign.
Still, it’s easy to get ahead of oneself with so much information. It’s difficult to know which precincts are reporting already, and how the votes will hold up as different county results start coming in.
Our ship is sinking , how could you The Finnigans grab the only life boat
Is that an educated guess or have you seen exits which say as such?
#127 – Ron, I am still on Barrack’s boat. Have not jumped and is not sinking. Just paddling on into tomorrow’s sunrise.
CNN now calling the Democrat delegates Clinton 299 Obama 219
CBS now calling the Democrat delegates Clinton 533 Obama 437
If Obama wins California (clearly) it will be close. Otherwise Clinton has won the day.
I don’t agree that this will drag on for 3 months. By March 4 Ohio, Texas, Washington, and most of the remaining large States will have voted. There will be a winer by then. I know the super-delegate system is convoluted but that doesn’t mean they will all defect. Also remember that Clinton won Florida, a large delegate number state, despite the penalty for going early. If Obama wins by subterfuge it will only weaken his credibility in the real race for POTUS.
IMO Obama really has to win California tonight to get back on level terms in the edlegate count and then beat Clinton in the contests between now and 4 March, otherwise Clinton will be the Democratic candidate.
#128 – Max – based on the same gut feeling that I had for Hillary in NH when everyone else has written her off.
I do not have any TV …so no updates…is missouri in ?
Chris you mentioned Dan Quale’s spelling problems
Loved georg’e recent Press conference re Brown meeting
George:
we had a meeting at a table
er.it wa a round table
..er actually it was a square table
anyway it was a table
The codes to the nuke buttons are in safe hands
I disagree with you Socrates regarding Florida.
The national Democrats penalised Florida for going early, and the candidates agreed not to campaign.
If anything, it will be Clinton’s subterfuge for trying to override a previous pledge and agreement by all candidates.
The Florida result cannot stand if no candidate was allowed to campaign.
Ron -
Missouri – Clinton 57, Obama 39
Huckabee 37, McCain 31
Neither have been called yet, but you figure it’s a matter of time now
As it stands, Florida ISN’T a large delegate number state, as it did not abide by the rules set and was stripped of all delegates. Hillary, after promising not to campaign either bent the rules very sharply or cheated by campaigning there, depending on how charitable you wish to be. Obama did not campaign there.
It was Hillary’s damn tears that did it!
If the count is close, I’d wager the Florida delegates will be allowed to vote at the convention.
Can anyone explain to me Romney’s sole win in Mass? On the current figures, he is 10,000 votes behind McCain with more than 50% of the count in.
Edwards winning Utah!
Edwards 238 39% 0 1%
reporting
Clinton 4 1% 0
Obama 0 0% 0
Also, out of interest, is there any precedent for a candidate winning a nomination at the convention then becoming ill and not being able to run for POTUS (must be a consideration given McCain’s age…)
And therein you might have the battle for the next President, Smile. Bloody Florida, the Tasmaina of the US system.
But if Clinton aggressively attempts to have those delegates reinstated, she may annoy more superdelegates enough to jump ship. It was they who excluded Florida.
135
Pancho Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
As it stands, Florida ISN’T a large delegate number state
There were 57 delegates
Hillary won about 1/2 Obama 1/3 and Edwards most of rest
not many net delegates in it
I heard on NPR this morning that in Kalifornia you have to win more than 62.5% of the votes in each district to actual win more delegates. If the win is anything less, then the delegates are split 50-50. I assume that if Hillary 60% Obama 40% then the delegates are 50-50. Can anyone confirm this?
I agree with Finnigan that Obama will be an excelletn candidate in future, but this is too soon.
As for my previous comment on subterfuge, Pancho and Asanque I agree that the Florida delegates don’t count and that Clinton probably did bend the rules. I wasn’t meaning to imply that Obama was underhanded either. What I meant was, that if Clinton led teh overall delegate count going into the convention, adn somehow all the super delegates voted with Obama to give him the noimination, that would be winning the nomination by subterfuge. IMO it would weaken his chances in November, and would be a bad outcome.
Finnigans, it depends on the district. They have between three and six delegates depending on Democratic turnout at recent elections. Where there are three, the result will be 2-1; where there are five, 3-2. Where there are four or six, you get the issue to which you refer.
The Finnigans , re California its even more complicated with odd number districts from 3 to 7 endings
If you got told , a few scotchs would not rease the headache
Sorry about the Mass question. CNN have changed the votes now from Macca 150K down to 130K. Not sure how with more counted be went backwards though.
Now William has told you …go for the scotch
George Panopoulos’ hair reckons Clinton is leading by 64 delegates total on US ABC.
Anyone looking at the various updates agree with me that MSNBC is being by FAR the most conservative at calling delegates??? Currently Clinton 160 vs Obama 129. Get real guys!!!
I agree Hillary remains a huge favourite, but more than 400 superdelegates have not declared… they’re leaving themselves negotiation room… Clinton leads 366-332 on elected delegates… so if Obama pulls some very solid numbers in the remainder of the day (i.e. her lead doesn’t blow out too much), hope remains…
Diogenes
While there is a neurologist in the house… speaking of ill candidates, what about ill presidents? Is there any diagnostic tool for sociopathy, does it count as an illness, and if so, would Dubbya qualify? To my perception his behaviour certainly fits the bill. Also, after all those drugs and drinks in his 20s and 30s, any views on the odds of mental defect of other kinds being present.
I know this is a little judgemental, but I find an extraordinary number of recovered alcoholics are evangelistic christians and (no offence to the non-evangelistic kind) I wonder if the correlation is more than coincidence. I often wonder if parts of their brains are damaged and that makes fundamentalist beliefs more likely? This is all just supposition and I don’t know, just wondering if you have a view?
Ron, strictly a tea drinker. Tq WB.
Well, HRC is doing better than I thought she would!
My guess was she’d be burned at the stake, but maybe they’ll leave that for her first term instead?
Go Hilary! My vote don’t count, but if moral support helps you got it
How long until polls close in California now? 40 minutes or 90?
It is interesting from the Republican side now as well – if McCain takes it, then it is game over (not that it isn’t already mind you, but the sheer difference in numbers will ensure the media plays it that way) If Romney can take the state then the charade will go on for a bit longer.
Anybody want to take a shot at a prediction? I’m going to tip McCain, simply due to the other results of the night.
“Anybody want to take a shot at a prediction? I’m going to tip McCain, simply due to the other results of the night.”
McCain would have to win California. If on nothing else, surely almost 100% of latino Republicans will vote for him on the issue of illegal immigration amnesty.
McCain and the Huckster for his sidekick.
Regarding McCain and California, the governator has endorsed him too. It would be amazing if McCain, the most moderate republican candidate, didn’t win the most progressive state. As I said two weeks ago, McCain has the nomination sewn up.
Excluding superdelegates, there is far less than a 100 delegates in it, which remains the originally defined ‘win’ condition for Obama. This is not a bad night for him pending results in the west, and the west could push it to be a decisive Obama night with the upcoming states after today favouring Obama heavily.
Clinton leading in the other two undecided states being Utah and Arizona.
Wonder what her odds are now?
Hope someone jumped on the fantastic odds on offer earlier this morning
Watch Missouri, Obama is closing as the big districts are counted.
Asanque – Obama still pretty firm on Betfair – $2.40 vs $1.67 on Clinton for the nomination. The money hasn’t written him off yet, and neither should anyone else. What odds was Clinton earlier today?
The Finnigans re California
you clearly have not had that scotch so maybe this will force you to:
Each district is assigned somewhere between three and seven delegates, depending on how heavily it has voted Democratic in past elections.
In the districts that have an odd number of delegates — say, three — winning by even a single vote nets a candidate more delegates than his or her opponent.
But in those that have an even number of delegates, one candidate could beat the other by a significant margin, and yet still come away with the same number of delegates
Now for California ,
The African American bloc have alot of odd number delegate districts
(gives a BETTER return of delegates for your vote)
The Latin American bloc have mainly the even number delegate districts
(gives a WORSE return of delegates for your vote)
Interesting that Utah has been called for Obama by Fox in William’s post above.
I guess only a small amount has been counted so far
Anyone knows why Alabama is 2 delegates to Hillary and 1 to Obama, despite Obama winning comfortably?
US ABC reckons Obama has picked up 6 or 7 delegates net so far tonight
163 – 1.90 for Clinton this morning, and 3.5 to win Cali
Clintons overall delegate lead down to 53
ABC calls Connecticut for Obama. Ouch to Clinton on that one.
anyone who left our sinking ship can return forgiven
the 50 shortfall prediction (worst 120) looking better as the water is paddled out
They haven’t counted much of St Louis yet in relation to Missouri. That should go heavily in favour of Obama.
but bring a bucket
I love the fact that in most Red States the Christian Right has split its vote between the Mormon and Huckleberry they’re so stupid its hilarious and McCain is cleaning up States with 35% on average of the vote when between them they’re getting 55% or so of the vote classic stuff. McCain will have the nomination now, just depends who his running mate will be…
Clinton should win California with the Latino vote squarely on her side. But Obama can call Super Tuesday a win for winning as many if not more States than Clinton. I must say the Dems nomination process is bull butter having winner take all states is far better IMHO.
Ron Paul hopefully will bow out after Tuesday thank god!
Twenty minutes and polls close in California.
Is every body having a good time at the circus today? Has anyone fallen off the trapeze yet?
Can I thank McCain for a nice win yet? Will Hillary be running harder tomorrow, or coasting way out in front?
Ah, such excitement, pollbludgers!
Georgia just called for Huckabee by MSNBC
Hillary will not be coasting KR , our former sinking ship is powering home
169
Possum Comitatus
Are you amazed, surprised, or what? It sure as hell isn’t what the polls were saying only a week or so back!
BHO’s “Yes.We.Can!” team would not be disappointed by tonight’s results. Some would even be surprised that he has done so well. He is well in this race and HillBilly knows she has a fight on her hands.
155 Rain – Just out of general interest, are you supporting Clinton over Obama? If so, why is that?
“having winner take all states is far better IMHO”
But Glen, wouldn’t having proportionate delegate splits guard against the issue you point out re Christian Right voters? They’re not going to get close to a candidate they want because the “liberal” McCain is getting 100% of votes from States which are over 50% arch conservative…
176
Ron
Nah, I was being mildly sardonic.
Glen, I haven’t seen any exit polls, but the Hispanic vote hasn’t historically been proportionally high in California. Add to that the fact that Clinton’s earlier poll leads were largely based on Hispanic voters, the Kennedy factor, and Obama’s Spanish ad blitz, and I’d be very worried about California if I was on team Clinton.
Delegate lead for Obama
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensm…unt_606534.html
180
Smile
We love him for his complete contradictions! Please, do not try to educate him, it will only cause confusion!
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Bermans_count_606534.html
Last was a bad link
Hillary is getting killed in St Louis, 27% to Obama 70%!!
Pancho considering how Clinton has lost bread and butter States like CT she’ll be shaking in her boots about California. Still i want Hillbilly as the nominee as McCain will have have an easier shot at winning against her than BHO.
Berman’s count: 606-534
David Plouffe, on a conference call just now, offered the Obama campaign’s estimate of where they stand at this moment in terms of delegates.
“We are, in terms of delegates, ahead currently: about 606 to 534, in terms of pledged delegates awarded tonight,” he said.
The Obama campaign’s delegate guy, Jeff Berman, caught and corrected the inaccurate early reports of Nevada’s delegate count, so they’ve got credibility on this count.
Plouffe cited wide margins in Kansas and Minnesota, as well as the fact that Obama had a larger margin in Illinois than Clinton did in New York.
Smile
Glen is right. If the Republican system causes them to have a candidate that will not appeal to the majority of republicans, then that is a great system
The Republican system ensures justice too. At least, it should ensure a lot of current White House staff face justice after November 2008.
185
Erytnicam
Snap!
(I posted the article instead) LOL
That’s great news with California to come. Will the sunshine state give us a new ‘inevitable candidate’?
191 Hope so, Pancho, the bookies have temporary custody of some of my cash.
an hour ago , the diminishing faithful lacked oarsmen on the good ship ‘Barrack’
but MOST have returned with renewed faith to fight for the dreaded Terminator’s state
50 is our goal or better
193 [50 is our goal or better]
Ron, 50% is our goal or better.
Anyone have the latest Californian odds?
Steve, I got him at $8 almost a year ago.
I might have a shout at the soccer tonight if this keeps up…
net overall delegates shortfall
Any tips on who will be the next GOP candidate to withdraw. The Murdoch Press is reporting that Romney has vowed to fight on despite winning only 3 states today.
198
Ferny Grover
Not if Romney’s sons can kidnap him and hide him away for a short while so as to save what is left of their inheritance! LOL
Erytnicam & KR
Another way to put it, if that report is correct, Obama ahead 53/47 on delegates, with 28% of the total of 4050 delegates accounted for.
I’m sure that both Romney and Huckabee want to be the last conservative standing, but as long as both remain in the race, McCain’s nomination becomes even more inevitable than it is now (as though there are degrees of inevitability). Besides, no one’s making any declarations until California comes through.
Clinton just gave her speech for the night – heard the end of it. The usual stuff, about being ready to lead, nothing special.
California has just closed, apparently too close to call. Which is reassuring, given they haven’t started counting yet. Sheesh.
Asanque – For California – Clinton $1.50; Obama $2.38 on Betfair
Here’s another ‘tally board’ site, with votes and delegates apportioned:
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/02/05/election_results/
California exit polls at http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#CADEM.
HRC ahead, if I can read the figures.
CNN Cali entry/exit poll looks pretty even as far as my inexpert eye can tell. About 30% ‘Latino’ falling in behind Hillary, the young for Barack, and women 55-45 for overall turnout: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#CADEM
I haven’t read any of the above, so I may just be repeating what others have said, but for what it’s worth this is my take:
* Repubs: McCain is home and hosed, and he owes Huckabee bigtime for locking Romney out of the South. A McCain-Huckabee ticket seems likely, which is good for the Dems since Huckabee will scare moderates away from McCain.
* Dems: A dead heat so far, and it all comes down to California. Whoever wins CA will be declared the winner. The CNN exit poll has Clinton on 51%. But as Slate points out, the exit polls have been over-stating Obama’s vote everywhere (do I hear the ghost of Tom Bradley?). So it looks like Clinton will win by more than that. It won’t be enough to knock Obama out, but enough to keep Clinton as favourite.
Damnit, I knew I should have hopped on at 9:37 a.m. for California. Odds were ridiculous.
Typical arbitrage play wasted.
My view is that if exit polls show it as close, Clinton will win. Simply because of the high absentee votes.
On closer inspection, I think you are right Viggo. Hillary by those figs.
Then again, through the quirks of California, losing the popular vote does not necessarily mean fewer delegates
Early days but Colorado is looking good for Mitt, and he leads in Minnesota. At the very least he can claim a minor moral victory in taking more than a few states.
Votes are trickling in in CA. Clinton looks like she is going to take it.
American Samoa is 2 delegates to Clinton, 1 to Obama (per Politico).
Asanque, Adam & Pancho
Obama is still in this …keep the faith & those buckets going
the odd number districts in California favour Obama see #164
Lota white folks in California ya’ll i guess HillBilly isnt finished just yet!
I make it 50.70:48.69 HRC:BHO
There’s a ‘narrowing’ going on in Missouri – but BHO is too far behind to catch up with around 20% still to count.
HUGE battle in Missouri continues – HRC should hold on, despite Obama closing, Huckabee has just taken back lead, but McCain-leaning precincts to come… it’s a fun one…
the momentum out of today may favour Obama
and there’s still 1455 delegates to vote for after today
50-47 in Missouri now with 83% counted. Should just be enough.
Clinton is also winning Utah, despite Fox calling it for Obama
Clinton is thrashing Obama in Cali at present, but only 1% counted which I presume are mostly absentee.
Brave Max, with 1% reporting!
Adam, I would argue that Clinton needs California to be able to claim a good day. Obama can claim a good day no matter what happens there at this stage. If he wins in CA, her situation looks pretty grim.
Capn Ron, I never left yr ship, just an analysis of the CNN poll. He’ll still be next President.
wayaway Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
HUGE battle in Missouri continues – HRC should hold on, despite Obama closing
does not matter …the 72 delegates go “proportional” by state & by district
Note Hillary won Nevada but Obama won ONE more delegate
jaundiced view @179, yes now I am in for HRC. I originally preferred Edwards but he dropped out, (as you know), not enough *charisma* or *personality* I guess.
.
and I had a hard time choosing between the two left, but BO is at best an onoffensive non-entity to me, all Hollywood hype and empty rhetoric with no substance, and SFA in his political Resume/CV too – I think his speechwriters should get the nomination *chuckle*
.
whereas HRC has done her apprenticeship on her own merit, ie she is better qualified when you stack up their dossiers, especially as Senators. Secondly, BO may prove himself later on, but to me he needs more time to earn his wings, get some experience to go with the *charisma*.
.
I also thought BO would win, coz the empty rhetoric and glitzy hype is very well done, and people are often sucked in by it in large numbers.
.
And more tongue-in-cheek as a secondary thing — just in recent weeks I’ve been really shocked (perhaps I still am naive??) by the viciousness of the sexist, mysogynist attacks on Hilary. Really brought home to me, we may have come a long way with racism, but we still have centuries further to go with sexism.
.
Obama is streaking down the outside in Missouri – only 3% in it with 11% left to count.
Yes, fair enuff – I get caught up in the races
On the R side tho, Huck by 250 votes. McCain closing… that one’s fun at least…
Gah. This is what four hours of watching polls will do to you…
I agree that Obama can survive a loss in CA better than Clinton can. Nevertheless, if she wins CA on top of NY, NJ, MO and MA, plus TN and OK in the south, she will have had a good night.
wayaway , our ship rammed the republicans to the ocean floor an hour ago
our rescue boat had 1 spare seat
the Morman , the Preacher or the Warrior…hmmm
Obama has pulled ahead by a nose in Utah and Hillbilly is leading the way out of the gate in California.
Geez…we almost need a race caller here.
Politico has called Missouri for Hillary
I prefer the rescue boat a little more roomy
My rough count is 743 – 754 Clinton-Obama before California which makes the result there critical to the overall momentum.
Indeed. Although her margins in NJ, MO and possible CA are a bit tighter than she would have liked, so it will be good-but-not-great.
Given that my preference for one over the other is pretty mild at best, I am starting to worry about the Dem nomination taking too long to resolve.
Just over 200 lead for Huck in MO now, 13% to count… it’s a cracker…
Live commentary from the adorable James Kotecki
http://ustream.tv/channel/politico-inside-super-tuesday
Later on tonight, I reckon we should have a group confession… hands up to people who have had to retract earlier statements at some point during this campaign?
Very few people will be sitting on their hands methinks.
Given that my preference for one over the other is pretty mild at best, I am starting to worry about the Dem nomination taking too long to resolve.
*nodding*, or it gets too vicious for too long, Divide & Conquer isn’t good for the party, they still have to win the Big One in November, and drawn out faction-fighting is a sure recipe for Nobody Wins!!
McCain streaking away…
Grandpa McC streaking….not a good look
Ahem… no…
Oh, they’re just toying with me now…
Yes, better to say that McCain has really gotten his zimmer frame into top gear.
Hillary is also beginning to streak in California
KR at 177 – Surprised indeed.
Polling the US election proper doesnt work particularly well, polling primaries even less so. They seem to pick up trends, but neither the real levels of those trends, nor the real level of the eventual vote.
So whatever happens – it’s all surprising!
Rain @ 224
I see. For me, ‘inexperience’ doesn’t mean much – they’ve all been around the block a few times. JFK was ‘inexperienced’ too.
I must admit that the gender thing doesn’t interest me much about Clinton. No point in having the first woman just for the sake of it when she has an overtly ‘more of the same’ approach on the Middle East and other issues.
Edwards was my favourite too, on the basis of promised change, but now Obama is the chance for change, so he’s the one.
Call me cocky, but I don’t think any of the Republicans will stand up to scrutiny against either of the Democrats. Even with the hopelessly unliberal media. McCain’s electability is a mirage. But even if he pulls off a huge upset, at the very least he’s anti-torture!
Max @ 236
No shame in being wrong at times in this electoral labyrinth I reckon.
The pollsters are proving to have been all over the place again today, so what chance have we got? Anyway, I’ll start getting my errors list together shortly!
Pro-torture candidates really aren’t my cup of tea either… Nice start for Hillary in CA.
Its only early days in california, but Clinton is leading Obama by 150,000 votes (55% to 33%). The pattern is similar to elsewhere: Obama is preferred by males and black voters; Clinton is preferred by women and hispanic voters. White voters split more evenly, depending on income. The trouble for Obama is, for democrats in particular and voters in general, women outnumber men and hispanics outnumber blacks. So overall you would expect Clinton to win.
Also thanks to exit polls we finally have some data on issues. Obama is ahead on resolving the war in Iraq (no 2 issue) but Clinton is ahead on handling the economy (no 1 issue). Hence IMO the worse the econonmy gets the better Clinton’s electoral position will become.
Romney’s getting 87% of the vote in Utah….not surprising but you still gotta laugh. Obviously a lot of diversity in Utah
Looks like, at his advanced age, Grampa Mac can only streak in short spurts (don’t even think about it)… looks like he’ll do enough in MO….
MSNBC has Obama doing TERRIBLY in California:
Hillary Clinton 55%
Barack Obama 33%
John Edwards 10%
7% of precincts reporting
Smile @ 141 – If one of the candidates was to die between the party conventions and the election then the party would presumably pick a new candidate based on the party rules. However, the candidate remains on the ballot if s/he dies so close to the election that new ballots can’t be printed.
If one of the candidates dies just before or after the election but before the electoral college chooses the President, then that candidate’s delegates can vote for any eligible candidate they choose, including one from the other party. Keep in mind that even in the case of the living only 24 states require college delegates to vote for their designated candidate. Delegates from the other states may vote for any candidate they please in complete disregard of the voters’ intentions.
In 1872, Horace Greeley (Dem) died before the college met and his delegates split their votes among several Democrats, 3 even kept on voting for Greeley. However, the Republican candidate, Ulysses S. Grant, had the majority of delegates pledged to him anyway, plus he was the incumbent, so Greeley probably wouldn’t have won anyway.
In 1912 one of the VP candidates, James Sherman, died before election day, but too late to reprint the ballot papers. He and his incumbent running mate, President William Taft, came third. The rules were changed after this so that presidential and vice presidential elections were separate.
Socrates @ 153 – GWB certainly seems to lack empathy, which is one indicator, but on its own isn’t enough to label him a sociopath.
You can find a good summation of the characteristics of a sociopath at:
http://www.hss.caltech.edu/~mcafee/Bin/sb.html
The 10% John Edwards figure tells the story – too early to say!!
246
Meng Tan
but you can trust that the lunar right would dearly love to waterboard McCain!
The exit polling for California seems somewhat weird. Only 7% of democrat voters were black? I wouldn’t write Obama off in CA based on that exit poll.
On Lateline last night Tony Jones spoke to Bill Clinton’s former assistant secretary of state, and strong supporter of Hillary, Jamie Rubin.
Rubin rated Hilary 9/10 and Obama 8/10. He thought Obama would have more trouble with GOP dirty tactics than Hilary should he become the Dem candidate. He also thought Obama had quite a bit of baggage with some of his earlier writings and his non-voting when the Iraq war came up in the Senate.
There will presumably be big regional variations in California, so I wouldn’t shut the door on the basis of 10 per cent reporting.
9000 votes between Obama and Hillary – 9% to go in Missouri
Thanks for that Mayoferal – very interesting!
Obama is almost neck-and-neck in Missouri – with 9% left to count
Jaundiced view
I agree with your comments on women candidates (and race issues too). I found one of those “who do you think most like” polls and I most agreed with Denis Kucinich and then Edwards. But with both of them gone I just hope Obama and Clinton don’t get too personal or damage each other, because the main thing is to clean out the whote house, and get a clear democrat majority in congress, so that a new government can start changing things in 2009.
I think Hillary will win and I consider she has better skills to fix the economy (or at least acess to other people with those skills). But I wouldn’t consider myself a fan of Clinton’s. Its just that my enemy’s enemy is my friend.
And now it’s Obama’s turn to streak – this time in Utah
It’s now apparent that Clinton will win CA by a comfortable margin. So she has won all the big states except IL. So she is the night’s winner. Signing off.
Looking at the remaining counties in Missouri, its split almost 50/50.
St Louis has a small % left, but lots left in Boone were Obama is leading.
Hillary has 3 counties favouring her, with a range of % left.
When does Alaska come in from the cold and start counting?
#263
Ferny Grover – where are you pulling your Utah data from?
10000 votes – 7% left. Too little too late for Obama in Missouri.
Listening to Obama and frankly I want a sick bucket, he is just one big line of platitudes. He is also arrogant to speak of bring red and blue states together before he has the Dem nomination. I think he will be a real worry if he wins the nomination and general election. What does he really beleive after the rhetoric! I am always wary of insiders taking an outsider stance.
#213 – Meng Tan – Been to American Somoa – beautiful island. They are BIG people. They love their canned corn-beef, sphagetti and their pizza is the size of Saturn.
Any data on what % of the California vote is going to be pre-poll? Just wondering whether they got to 10% count so quickly because this was pre-poll and so already counted?
Davidoff – CNN
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080205
#272 ok
#264 – Adam – why taking you so long? Have faith my friend. Go Hillary, go to Everest is where you will be.
Adam might be right about California, but we don’t appear to have anything yet from LA, San Francisco, San Diego or Sacramento. All the counties with significant counts are away from the big cities.
LA has some counting and Hillary is about 20% ahead
CNN calls Utah for Obama
Smile,
“Keep an eye on who wins the “live” voting on Super Tuesday. Many of the states voting today – including California, Illinois, Arizona, Georgia, New Jersey, New Mexico and Utah – allow “no excuses” early voting. That means that millions of ballots were cast before Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy endorsed Barack Obama or California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger endorsed John McCain. Exit polls will provide indications of the sentiments of people who actually vote on Tuesday, which will tell us more about where the race stands right now than official results that are warped by early-voting patterns. ”
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/thebeat?pid=280396
LA running 58/31 after 8%, Sacramento 54/30 after 55%…
11,000 votes in it in Missouri – 7% left to count. Will Obama catch her?
Thanks Pancho
Hillary seems to be carrying every reporting county (on a quick sweep)… signifcant numbers already reporting, though many only around the 10% stage…
13,000 votes in it now with 6% to count, so it is probably unlikely. So that’s, you know, one more delegate to Clinton…
It’s a strange old world.
@266 Alaska closes 4:30 pm. That must be local time.
Socrates @262, I recorded a *ditto* to you on those polls, although many of the questions I guessed at, as I know zilch about things like US domestic income tax policy etc. I was curious, so did more *homework* and still came up with Kucinik/Edwards.
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All a moot point as I’m not an American, but the ultimate goal for many of us global outsiders is to hope for a Democrat in the White House, and probably BO and HRC are 97% agreed on most Democrat Party platforms anyway – just dont implode from within folks! Puhleese?? I understand much of Europe are live televising the Super-Tuesday, and appears to be grabbing more global attention than usual this round.
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Maybe its just my personality having a *thing* on preferring to support the underdog, and my watching of the media in recent times, has hilary placed in the underdog corner, so if I did have to choose I’d have no problem with punching her circle or whatever it is they do!
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Max@280 – I don’t think so. Hillbilly appears to be pulling away again.
The 10% vote for Edwards in Calif indicates there’s still a lot of prepolls in this count.
Not a lot out of the discussed 60/40 range though, so I assume delegates will break more evenly than the overall % would suggest…
280, doesnt matter if he catches her, the difference between being ahead by a few thou and being behind by a few thou is negligible
As our American friends are want to say, Hillary is cleaning Obama’s clock.
ok Alaska is now online and Obama seems to be picking up the Polar Bear vote. He’s ahead at this stage.
Obama has just conceded the nomination to Hillary as he is speaking right now, between the lines that is.
Obama, what a wind bag!
Missouri could be very interesting – 4% left – less then 4k votes in it. Boone still to mainly be counted. 27% done being approximately 8k voters, splitting at 6/4.
He is not messiah, just a naughty boy.
Rain, you think a Clinton isn’t the dem’s favourite? The bookies sure do, and she is claiming a superdelegate lead at this stage. Although the press did go a little cold after the SC antics.
291 – why, do you think Hillary will end tonight with a more than 100 pledged delegate lead?
291 – Finnigans – give us a break, he was doing nothing of the sort.
Meanwhile in Missouri… holy hell. It’s back down to 4000 votes.
This is a strange country.
An interesting piece on the various spin being added by strategists here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/05/AR2008020503397.html?hpid=topnews.
Superdelgates will end up comitting to whoever wins the voters delegates – they would never want to be seen as subverting the democratic will of the people. Ignore superdelegates and pay attention to pledged delegates.
Obama LEADS in MO!!!! (I know, it doesn’t matter)….
Everything is looking good – nobody will be walking away a looser.
Obama has taken the lead in Missouri! Crumbs! What a race!!
We shoudl remember that the Latino populations in Californian cities are even bigger than the black populations in those cities, so I can’t see Obama reducing Clinton’s lead in California. Given the number of delegates at stake, Hillary will increase her lead by almost a hundred in California alone. That should put her over 200 ahead overall and safe IMO. I hope it ends quickly from this point and isn’t drawn out.
OBAMA TAKES MISSOURI LEAD!
Interesting bits:
‘Clinton, by contrast, had a relatively low hurdle, by Wolfson’s metrics. “Whoever wins New York should be declared the winner and thus be given momentum bragging rights,” he suggested. As a second bellwether, Wolfson proposed Arkansas — Clinton’s former home state. The only meaningful forecast the Clinton side would make was that “we will wind up retaining our overall lead in delegates.”‘ hahahahahaha
‘Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe, sat down with reporters in Chicago to amplify that theme. “If it is very close tonight from a pledged delegate standpoint, that’s a terrific moment for the campaign,” he spun.’
‘In the conference call with reporters, Penn proposed that the two Democratic candidates commit to weekly debates. Mark Barabak of the Los Angeles Times pointed out that, usually, “the candidate who calls for more debates is the candidate who’s struggling or falling behind.”
NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reminded the Clinton strategists that they had substantially revised their forecasts for Super Tuesday. “If I recollect correctly, there was a time when the Clinton campaign and the former president said this would be decided February 5,” she said. “What happened to change your expectations?”‘
StanS @292, I agree, but can’t put my finger on why – but anyway, I read an interesting analysis this morning, but can’t find the URL!
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It said along the lines that the Democrat Party machine wanted to motivate as big a Democrat turn-out this year as possible, in order to defeat the Repugs, by organising a tight candidate contest and primaries.
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I guess this run is one way of motivating the apathetics, who would normally not bother voting?
Erytnicam @299, history would suggest otherwise.
If obama comes close to splitting California now (approximately ~40%) then he has the momentum. This has gone about as well for Obama as it could have if he comes close in California, and people who say Hillary has exceeded her expectations haven’t been paying attention to the polls, or in fact anything.
From one of the CNN commentators: “Hillary wins everything under the income of $50K and Obama above $50K”. Did I hear that Obama is the people’s candidate? It’s a mad, mad mad world.
#304 Sweet
Fox has called Missouri for McCain – another 58 delegates if that’s the case.
Romney now has 88% of the vote in Utah. 12% of the state aren’t Mormon obviously. Such a free-thinking lot.
Obama’s going to be sweating on just getting to 40% now… I know only 15% counted, but he’d be nervous…
And MSN has called California now.
Well well well.
Exit polls are interesting in Cali. Obama has won more white folks in all age groups but over 60’s.
The Finnegans@309, with the exceptions, of course, of young people, students and the entire population of SC, most on IL and a few other groups.
That damn Hellfire Huckabee has been out smiting the states that rejected him:
“EIGHT people have been killed and dozens injured as tornadoes and lethal thunderstorms tore through areas of the southern US.”
deliverance !…floating in the water is Ben Lexen’s “winged keel” ..we are still in it
big cities not in in California & prey for those odd number delegate districts
we are still rowing the good ship ‘Barrack” …today is not the final battle
Hilariously, Obama won white voters in California and still lost
That’s not actually funny at all :l
Hahahaha
Obama has moved ahead in Missouri by 5000 votes…
Oh god this is too much
This is shaping as a poor, poor, poor result from Obama in California. It may indicate a poor organisation there or whatever, but if the current 55/33 split holds it is surely the end of the line in everything but formalities?
CNN Has called Kalifornia for Hill.
321 Smile…it’s way too early to speculate. I doubt that Hillary will hold that lead, though I do expect her to win Cali. Given the number of deligates/states Obama has won today (and the proportion of Cali delegates he will win) he’s far from finished this race. It’s a long way to go.
I know I’d be getting ready to concede after winning the majority of states and roughly drawing even on delegates with favorable states ahead.
Does this board have a rolleyes smiley?
Hillary will win, but given the slow vote progression, one imagines that most of the early voting was pre-poll. Obama should recover to the low to mid 40’s I’d imagine but a win is extremely unlikely. The question is how will the delegates split?
Ron
I appreciate your keeness for Obama but, as I tred to say before, the cities in California have big latino populations that will favor Clinton. With them still to come in she has got California won with a sizeable majority. Obama needed to win the country towns that came in first. I don’t see how he can overcome Clinton’s lead in California, which is over 20% or almost 300,000 of the votes counted so far, with 17% counted.
CBS has also now called California as won by Clinton. We can debate why but that result won’t change.
I think the main outcome of what is looking like a solid win for Clinton in CA is that the superdelegates and money that was preparing to lock in behind Obama will become wavering again. I would not call it the end of the line, but historically, California is an important win.
Obama looks set to win Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delkaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota and Utah. I know it’s not winner takes all, but to get a vague sense of proportion thosae states represent 768 delegates.
Clinton looks set to win Arkansas, Arizona, Massachussets, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma and Tennessee. They elect 665 delegates between them.
So how is it that everyone still thinks Clinton is set to win?
Wasn’t it a while ago that it was assumed by many that the Republican Race so bitterly contested would disable them for the November General Election yet it appears now with McCain the clear front runner will have months to prepare and unite the Republicans before the big one! Funnily enough it is the Democrats would will duke it out for months now given the closeness of Super Tuesday alot more mud will be thrown. Good news for the Republicans having a clear front runner!
Huck or Romney given their attacks on McCain would be doubtful as his VP, id like Colin Powell or Rudy Giuliani.
Obama has won the bragging right, that is all!!
Update: At 12:30am, the Obama Campaign released a new count, not including California, where absentee ballots are still being tallied:
“With California not yet counted, we currently lead Clinton by 43 pledged delegates — Obama: 677 – Clinton: 634.”
Glen, I’d say Rudy is no chance – despite his friendship with Grandpa. Colon would be interesting – a moderate Republican with wide appeal.
That and the delegate count at the moment.
whats the % postal Socrates as Hillary would win postals by a mile
and what’s % of LA & Frisco……..(have no TV here)
the faithful believed there would be no knockout & don’t think its occured yet
the delegate shortfall may still be a springboard tomorrow
There is no knockout. Hillary won the big states, Obama more states, delegate count about even. Onwards to Maryland and Virginia next week.
@312: Utah is ~60% Mormon, I think the almost 90% result has more to do with the other candidates investing next to nothing in campaigning in Utah.
@Glen: Either Powell or Giuliani will further alienate McCain from the Republican “base”
Glen is onto something a McCain/Colin Powell ticket, I for one reckon with that the Republicans would win in November.
Meng Tan, if you are a Republican and faced with a McCain/Powell vs Clinton/Edwards or Obama ticket I supect you will go with McCain/Powell
While I think the US (and the world at large) could do a whole lot worse than McCain/Powell, I also give it Buckley’s that it will be the ticket.
I can’t see the Republicans having two ‘liberals’. They’ll want a real nutter on the team. My guess is the Huckster.
SUNDAY – Lousiana, Nebraska, Washington. Total delegates at stake – 196
342 – Who’s favourite?
CNN calls Alaska for Obama.
A lot will rest on whether the rabid right will halt their frenzied attacks on John “might-as-well-be-a-liberal” McCain. Adding Powell is just more fuel to the fire. I’m not sure “the party” is ready to make as seismic a shift (sure, McCain may be pro-Iraq-war but otherwise he’s anathema to the Bushies).
Lousiana I’d say Obama, and Washington is a caucus, which again favours Obama. I know stuff all about Nebraska
California is taking forever to count – and Edwards is still on 10%.
at the risk of a ship’s mutiny-can not believe a 22% margin to Hillary 55/33 in Cal
depends where the votes are coming from
OVERALL ,
the prediction of 50 is abit shakey but the outer limit loss of 120 is not
a split of 55/45 of delegates for the remaining 1450 delegates after tomorrow
is realistic given where Obama has won today= a tie , without the Super dele’s
… the dream ship continues
Also, what the hell new mexico, hurry up and give me some results – 14 states to 8 sounds a lot better media wise than 13-9
Hillary is favored in New Mexico.
Just posted in the Murdoch press…
DEMOCRATIC White House hopeful Barack Obama has claimed to be riding a wave of support across the United States despite a round of tight primaries that left the party with no clear winner.
“There is one thing on this February night that we do not need the final results to know. Our time has come,” he told cheering supporters.
“Our time has come. Our movement is real. And change is coming to America,”
350 – based on exit polls, she’s really, really not. http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NMDEM
Take heart Ron…your ship may still come in
Someone said earlier that the Democrat vote was 5 times the Republicans. Any update or confirmation of that?
Edwards still 10% in California – are they 2 hours or 2 WEEKS behind the rest of the country?
msnbc predicting four delegate lead for Obama at nights end.
At risk of being modded for relevance – since when did interest in US presidential primaries overtake enthusiasm for kicking Nelson while he’s down?
Meng Tan, fortunately, over the years Dr Nelson has developed a pretty rare talent (or maybe it is just a crook leg) which allows him to kick himself while he is down.
Pre-poll votes (or whatever they call them) are apparently already counted. That’s why you go to the map of Californioa counties on the NYTimes website they will state that counties with “0% reporting” have a margin of (say) 60/40 to Hilary. Those votes are released the moment the polls close. Guess what Hillary was polling in California two weeks ago – about 50%-33%. There are one or two rural counties in Northern California which are reporting 100% or near. One of them Obama’s won, the otheres he’s behind by only a few percent. As for the Latino vote in the big cities. I’m lead to believe its tied up in even numbered delegate districts. So, though it may ensure she wins the state, it won’t win her many delegates.
Meng .. we’re kicking Nelson on another thread.
But I must say that I have grave reservation about intergenerational kicking him when he is down.
And as for the good – or not so good – things that he is up to while warming Malcolm’s seat, people across the length and breadth of Australia will come to their own conclusions about those.
356
Erytnicam
Clinton will be lauded as the ‘winner’, (there just has to be a ‘winner’, this is America, after all!) but I think a better term will be ’survivor’, and like some bit of crumby reality TV, she’s clawed and scraped her way over the finish line, but with Obama bearing down on her so that his hot breath is on her neck.
For a guy who, let’s be frank, is black, is a junior senator, and has nothing of the Clinton’s cache or connections, this is an astonishing result, and one they will try to capitalise on.
Calling Hillary the ‘winner’ will be parenthetical, and require a lot more qualification than nearly anyone expected a month or so ago.
Chris @ 354. The 5:1 Dem to Rep voter turnout was an observation I made earlier in the vote count. Overall the Dems are recording significantly more votes than the GOP (around 2-3:1) – though there are states like Illinois where this trend is reversed.
Robert you never left the ship
the ship doesn’t believe Calfornia will be anything near the Clinton 55/22 margin
the Polls should narrow as the count increases….the day is Obama’s & tomorrow
correction 55/33
Ron
Its not clear to me that today was a tie with Clinton winning California. CBS and CNN say that Obama has won the most states, but Clinton has won the most delegates (she won all but one of the big states). Winning the most delegates (and popular votes) means you win the nomination. Why do you say today is a tie?
Does anyone recall what the clumulative delegate count was at the start of today? Then we can see who won today for sure. I say it is clearly Hillary with California in her keeping. (Lead there is now over 250000 with 20% counted)
There are only two things that matter:
(a) the delegate count the emerges of the next 24 hours
(b) the projections/results for the race moving forward
Based on my numbers – Obama is already doing better than we projected.
364 Ferny Grover: Thanks.
For the Dems 985 delegates out of 4049 (23%) have been allocated (CNN). Clinton 534 (54%), Obama 425 (43%), Edwards 26. Would you call an election with 23% of the votes in?
#367 Socrates
Delegate count before today (excluding superdelegates) was
Clinton 57
Obama 80
Obama has clearly won Missouri.
His statewide lead is now nearly 7,000.
There are perhaps 5,000 votes to come in from St Louis County. The only county that hasn’t fully reported, according to CNN’s breakdown. And to this point, St Louis County has gone heavily for Obama.
Socs, your Hills outlook is even more rosy than my Obama one. Both parties can claim a win today.
296 Pancho “Rain, you think a Clinton isn’t the dem’s favourite? The bookies sure do, and she is claiming a superdelegate lead at this stage. Although the press did go a little cold after the SC antics.”
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Maybe in the main Party machine circles, but I was thinking more on the general population talkfests — she is very unpopular, on mostly personal grounds..down on the streets/neighbourhoods etc in regional patches.
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Friends of mine working in Indiana a cpl weeks ago, bought a veteran Mercedes for a car rev-head show they were going to, and it had a sticker on it ‘Hilary for President’ when they picked it up, but they were shocked when the car was stoned and trashed and yelled at, when they took it out for a run. African-American women have been harrassed by African-American men for being “race traitors’ if they support Hilary.
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When a sexist idiot screamed “Iron my shirt!” at HRC, it was considered funny; if a racist idiot shouted “Shine my shoes!” at BO, it would’ve inspired global uproar.
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John McCain answering “How do we beat the bitch?” with “Excellent question!” Would he have dared reply similarly to “How do we beat the black bastard?”
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One of the most popular little items being sold in the US? the HRC nutcracker with metal spikes between splayed thighs. If it was a tap-dancing blackface doll, there would be national, and possibly global outrage, and it wouldn’t be sold in airports.
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One of the most popular T-shirts on sale in the US? Some say the most violent T-shirts in US election history with the slogan “If Only Hillary had married O.J. Instead!”
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Comedy Central’s very popular “Southpark” featuring a storyline in which terrorists secrete a bomb in HRC’s vagina.
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“Obama Girl” flaunting her bikini-clad butt online—then confessing Oh yeah it wasn’t her idea after all, some guys got her to do it and dictated the clothes, which she said “made me feel like a dork.” Young women in mags like Cleo saying they dont want their boyfriends to drop them if they support Hilary, and thats why they voted for Obama.
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Just a sprinkling of the media portrayals, or perhaps ‘pop culture’, that I have been seeing and hearing about from my USA-based friends/family etc – and it is just my personal view of course – but it puts Hilary in a “very-Disliked-Candidate” underdog corner from various corners of the general population, if not within the Democrat Party machine.
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The New Mexicans must be having a siesta
@367: I think it’s all about momentum and spin. It wasn’t long ago that Hillary was the inevitable candidate, for Obama to be more than competitive is an upset, and at odds with any polling more than 3 days old.
One can draw similarities to the Australian election campaign, and the momentum that the Coalition was going to get from a narrowing, stopping Rudd in his tracks and returning Johnny to the … oh, wait, bad example!
Missouri’s gaining a reputation for ball-tearing election results: the 2006 Senate election, and both 2008 primaries!
Meng
I agree, for Obama today is a narrowing of Hillary’s favouritism in his favour. Its almost a moral victory, good for his momentum. But Hillary still won (just). To say she didn’t win is spin, and I’d prefer that we analyse the spin, not make it up. I felt some posters were so hoping for Obama to win that they were chosing to misinterpret the data.
Ah…..there you go….Clinton is now leading Obama 53% to 38% in New Mexico with 15% counted.
And Obama is now only 20% behind in Calif with 22% counted. Clearly, it’s a narrowing!
Actually, I may be mistaken on the Missouri Senate election (although the result was close). I think the real ball-tearer was Virginia, with Jim Webb passing George Allen late in the count.
376
Meng Tan
yeah, agree, that Clinton is the ‘winner’, but only so far as the race has run, and Obama has really come out of nowhere to be a length behind.
Who said we needed a race caller? LOL
I still find it astonishing that Obama has mustered so much momentum so quickly, even if Hillary survives his challenge, she’s been given a run she probably never expected.
#381
My numbers are showing 858 delegates each.
367
Socrates Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Its not clear to me that today was a tie with Clinton winning California
Socrates todays prediction was a 50 delegate shortfall..with a max loss of 120
but with a future Obama/Clinton 55/45 split of the remaining 1428 delegates
=a tie (actually Obama a slight winner)
Obama be4 today has a net 15 delgate lead over Clinton plus Edward’s 26 in play
So Obama can still win the Nomination with 55/45 in future Primarys particularly given the States & their distribution he’s won today
The Super Delegates pledged todate are Clinton 201 to Obama 110 with 485 undecided & its a value call where they’ll go until further Primarys are decided
Latest figures I’ve seen for California are 53-36 to Hillary, 25% reporting
#384 Meng Tan – yep, narrowing in to 17% diff
CNN Delegate Estimate Count is 543 for Hillary and 413 for Obama, both normal and superdelegates.
New Mexico appears to have tightened up too.
gap closes to 16%
The gap in CA now 16. While the first 25% contained the postal votes, the final 25% will be the interesting ones.
NM is now neck and neck at 38% ounted and the Clinton lead in Calif is now 16%. Can BHO surge or what!
New Mexico – 48/48
The cynic in me says that a clinton/obama ticket is the real deal
what we are seeing is just not “spin” but also a chance to mobilise the masses and uninterested.just dwell on the following question
If this contest had been a formality then how much interest would be generated?
Also the passions aroused are needed to wake up and actually get enrolled to votet that portion of the population who normally wouldnt vote.the only way to get rid of the neocon is to use their tactics on them.
“fight fire with fire”
Who’s going to quit first, Romney or Huckabee? Or both simultaneously? Someone please tell me, I can’t predict!
total delegate update from cnn
Clinton 622
Obama 513
392 gusface: Well said, I’ve been saying that all along. The publicity machine has been in overdrive. With 4 times the amount of dollars available, they have been able to get out 2-3 times the vote.
What about Ron Paul Meng? Giuliani who has quit the race is ahead of Paul 9% to 4% in California if that doesn’t mean you’re finished i dont know LOL!
Obama hits the lead in New Mexico
The cynic in ME says that Clinton/Obama will not be the ticket. Obama/Edwards or Clinton/Richardson more likely (although since Clinton seems to be popular among Hispanics, maybe she doesn’t need Richardson).
And there’s another of those strange anomalies: Obama won Missouri and picks up 6 delegates; Hillary lost and picks up 15. Observe US democracy in action.
All predictions excluded the Super Delegates but your TV feeds may erroneously
include them in their delegate totals
Clinton has pledged 201 & Obama 109 with 485 unpledged wchich could end up anywhere or with one Candidate
So the current Supers pledged may be irrelevant & should be excluded 4 moment
C’mon Obama, get Cali to less than 10. Oh, and re: New Mexico. Told you so :p
Glen, Ron Paul never had a shot at the nomination anyway, so there’s no surprise at all there. He had a strong showing in the Minnesota and North Dakota caucuses though.
Chris b @395
whoever in the dems has orchestrated this should get the “karl rove ” gold medal for diamonds out of carbon.
In oz a similar tactic was used re worstchoices (personalise etc ,which btw was true in my wiffs case) to engage the “battler’ and make them passionate about something,this ultimately translates into electoral victory.
A huge caveat -in the case of both oz and the usa only truth will suffice as thanks to the bush/howard reign the public is “bullsh@t proof”.
obama will bring on board that seven % bufferzone that will prevent a “floridation” of the result.
But Meng to be trounced by someone not even in the race in the most populated American State shows you’re wasting your time IMHO. Romney and Huck will fight it out till the end they dont look like quitters.
Yes Glen, I agree, the following candidates were wasting their time and a lot of folks’ money from the moment they entered the race:
Biden, Dodd, Gravel, Kucinich, Richardson, Paul, Tancredo, Hunter, Keyes, Thompson (not Fred)
BUT, not to diminish your point, i.e. the freaking obvious, Paul had the strongest showing of all of these time-wasters. Also, remember that some voted before Giuliani withdrew, so he wasn’t “out of the race” at that point.
BTW, I forgot to mention that Paul came second in Montana. And before today, he had more delegates than Giuliani.
OK, for those believing this was a win for Obama or a tie b/w Clinton and Obama, answer honestly – if their results today were reversed, would you be happier or disappointed?
Right, I’m going to call it a night. So that you can all poke fun at me, I’m going to call a 50-41 win to Clinton in California. Just remember, no matter how hard you’re laughing at my prediction, you’re not laughing as hard as I am at Brendan Nelson.
406, what you fail to understand is expectations. IF the results were reversed, Obama still would have surpassed expectation and would still be looking to clean up on sunday.
“what you fail to understand is expectations”
All the informed “expectations” I read in the past week had Obama set to go 50-50 on the day and esp. in California…
which is 20 points better than he was doing a few weeks ago, confirming momentum in his direction. And despite CA it has been a tie on the day.
“confirming momentum in his direction”
The main momentum I see illustrated is the momentum of a large Clinton boot which just kicked Obama in the head in California!
One can only see today as a loss for Obama, he did not win a single major State except perhaps Illinois, he lost New Jersey, he lost California, he lost New York, and he lost Massachusetts. Sure he was able to win a few minor States but if he couldnt really come close in any of the Big States that will help Hillbilly in the long run. If Obama had won one or two of these contests id say he’d be the favourite but he couldnt do it despite the ’surge’ in electoral support in California and other Big States.
To the delight of many Republicans and McCain, it appears Hillbilly will hang on in the final analysis…
#411 Smile – you are aware that this is all about delegates and the position those numbers establish for the race ahead – right?
NBC’s Chuck Todd’s latest count: 841-837 for Obama on the night, plus or minus 10 depending on the results from California.
Who said Billary won comfortably today…
Of course I am Davidoff – but all the talk isn’t about the number of delegates (in relation to which Clinton is ahead and is likely to increase after today) it is about the magical “momentum”. And the talk for the past week has been an Obama surge in Californian polling evidencing this momentum. But the result in what was universally accepted as the most important state today hasn’t shown this surge.
CA 54/37 with 41% counted
413
davidoff
If this Super Tuesday leaves a difference of only 100 or so delegates, then it’s still anybody’s to win.
What some people do not realise is that only roughly half the number of states have decided as of tonight, and the guy with the Big Mo is clearly Obama, who’s whittled down CLinton’s outright winner lead to a relatively small number of delegates.
The battle ain’t over, and let’s not forget, he’s been raising twice the cash in the last month, and if he’s percieved as a viable runner, then just watch the money pour in again.
This ain’t over, not by a long shot.
#415
All of the talk will move into end-game plans – polls on the remaining states – projections and lots of analysis. Today is more than what we wanted. Game on!
Meng Tan @ 405 – Ron Paul is the only candidate, Dem or Rep, to tell Americans the plain, unvarnished truth about the deep-poop they’re in – the economy, Iraq, etc. That’s why he not getting anywhere with the Repubs, and why Glen is so dismissive. The right-wingers live in fantasy worlds where truth is anathema. They just can’t handle it.
The surge! 53/38
CA – 53/38 (Hillary has a margin of 15%), 38% counted
415
Smile
Re: California
if 60/40 ends up more like 50/40 (or close to) then by definition, Obama has ‘momentum’, or he’s conjured a ‘narrowing’ or he’s ‘closed the gap’ a bit or whatever expression you care for.
Nobody I saw said Obama would win California, nor anyone seriously contend he’d win the majority vote. He has, as many have noted, stayed competitive for the remainder of the states.
He may well not finally win, but he’s not out of the race yet.
One other thing Smile, if it’s 50/40 ish, then the delegate distribution may end up even closer, and from all the info we’ve seen on this, it’s a likely outcome.
It will all depend on which districts he wins, as to which ones she wins, and the number of delegates and which way the wind was blowing, and …(you get the idea!~ LOL)
#409 – I am smiling with you all the way. Yes, these dreamers were riding on the big Mo. Now that Hillary is thumping Obama 53-38 on 44% counted, suddenly the big MO is no longer in Kalifornia but elsewhere. Dream on.
Yes, I’m up to speed with the Californian district delegate spliting. As they say, we shall see.
As far as I can see on the Demcratic side the choice is:
A high-profile, highly hated woman about whom there is unlikely to be any new “dirt” which can emerge but in relation to whom there isn’t going to be any great enthusiasm and probably a large turn-off factor amongst independents. But if the economy becomes an overriding issue there is probably going to be nostalgia for the 90s boom, when her husband was in “charge”.
A well-spoken relatively-unknown man in relation to whom there is going to be any number of dirty-trick, smear, scandal attacks which have the possibility of taking the sheen off. Yet to project a policy stance (not saying he doesn’t have them, but the cut through is all about Obama the candidate, not Obama the policy agenda).
Well, to all those who were about the place today, it has been good fun to share this apparently historic day with you all. Even better that the partisan crap was kept to a minimum, so we could actually discuss the results. Good fun.
William, absolutely brilliant coverage, thanks for keeping us informed.
The immediate future spin is going to be fascinating, culminating in yet another poll in, ooh, three days. It’s like a travelling circus really, in more ways than one…
Despite thinking the US primary system is stupid, I’ve been drawn into it, partly by the closeness of the Democratic race, and partly by reading this blog.
Does anybody think that the eventual winner of the Democratic nomination, be it Barack or Hillary, will invite the other to be VP? I know they slag each other off and pretend not to be friends, but I can’t see how a Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket could lose, particularly with the economy sliding down the toilet, and Iraq dragging on.
I think a real fault of the US system is that the vice-president can simply be selected by the winning nominee, without having to go through the primaries (although they sometimes do), and you can end up with people like Gerald Ford or Spiro Agnew (or Dick Cheney!) in power.
#425 – I am still smiling. That well spoken person is simply NOT electable comes November. Even worse, some will ensure that he CANNOT be elected.
CA 53/39
Interesting to look at the response on Intrade. Romney the bit loser (down to 2%) with Macca up to 93% certain. And Clinton is 51% to Obama’s 49%.
I disagree that Obama is not electable.
He’s already ticked boxes many said he would not.
He energises a lot of people to vote including independents.
Democrats will vote for him if not Hillary.
Independents will vote for him and maybe some republicans who don’t like McCain.
If Hillary gets elected, the hype goes, and many voters will return to apathy.
I still think Hillary would beat McCain, but then again so would Obama.
I don’t mind any of the 3 candidates but prefer Obama. They would all do a better job then Dubya Bush.
And in California as predicted, Obama is closing the gap. He is now 39% and as I predicted, will likely settle in the low to mid 40’s by the end of the count.
Is this victory? Maybe not, but its certainly a lot better then most expected a month ago.
The race is still open and the fun continues
New Mexico – 49 Clinton, Obama 47, 47% counted
Actually, one blogger has already pointed this Guardian article out:
“Fidel Castro, the Cuban president, has predicted that Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Barrack Obama will team up to win the 2008 US presidential election.
Fidel Castro tips Clinton-Obama as winning ticket
The ailing leader has not been seen in public in 13 months
“The word today is that an apparently unbeatable ticket could be Hillary for president and Obama as her running mate,” the ailing leader wrote in an editorial column in Granma, the Cuban Communist Party’s newspaper.”
Unfortunately, that could kill the dream team.
Personally, I’d like to see a Romney/Huckabee Republican team. They culd argue about how many wives you should be allowed to have, and who had the best choir. The Book of Moron could apply to either of them really.
Clinton ahead again in New Mexico with 47% counted.
And regarding big states.
So he looks to lose California.
He lost New York, but that’s Hillary’s home state.
He won Illinois, but that’s his home state.
He lost New Jersey and Massachusetts which had roughly 1.1 million voters.
He won Georgia with roughly 1 million voters and Missouri with about 850k voters.
Overall in big states, he did okay, not great, but enough.
Antonio (427),
Hillary would never be Barack’s VP. Doing so potentially consigns her to eight years of it, by the end of which she would too old – both in the literal sense and the political sense, the fact she will be seen as nothing more than a re-run – I doubt she could “reinvent” herself like McCain did this time around.
That and she wouldn’t really add much to the ticket as she doesn’t cover over Obama’s weaknesses.
However… I can see Obama being Hillary’s VP. He won’t be too old in eight years, and he doesn’t have the added burden of a spouse having the White House a few terms earlier. Would be seen as party unity. Having said that… it would be a dangerous move politically, as it gives the Republicans a bit of ammo.
Weighing it up though, if Clinton pips Obama in the next month, such a deal is probably high up on table, especially given the party heads will be pressuring for a resolution one way or the other.
“However… I can see Obama being Hillary’s VP”
Yes, especially if this means he gets to be Prez when they impeach Hillary…
We all know Hillary only wants into the White House to effect her ultimate revenge on Bill with a male intern
Asanque – 2 438 Didn’t one of the Chaser team at a campaign door-stop a few months ago offer to be that male intern?
439 – Unfortunately I missed that episode
Latest tally: 841-837
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/
For myself, should internship ever come my way, I’ll pass. However, of course if it were the slinky Madelaine Albright …
BHO can’t crack the magic 40% so far, with 58% counted in CAL – still way down there on 39%
CA – Obama cracks 40
He will crack 40, all the trends point that way
I don’t think he’ll win New Mexico though.
#444
he has cracked 40, just a few moments ago
Wait, he’s up there!! 40/53 in CAL with 61% reporting
CA: Clinton 53%, Obama 40%, diff 13%, count 54%
woops – count 61% as jaundiced view siad
NM: 49/47 for CLinton, 54% of the count
Damn, I’ve eaten way too much popcorn! And the clowns haven’t even arrived yet!
#450 LOL
348
Ron Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
at the risk of a ship’s mutiny-can not believe a 22% margin to Hillary 55/33 in Cal
depends where the votes are coming from
NOW a 13% margin …..Hillary 53/40
and more narrowing and those odd number delegate districts to allocate
the longer the nigght , the glumer Hillary
Geez….I turn my back for an hour or so and you lot let Hillary take back the lead in New Mexico. Weren’t you watching?!
I thought there was only 2!
Hillary Rodham Clinton 1,434,778 52.9%
Barack Obama 1,077,430 39.7
John Edwards 150,471 5.5
Dennis J. Kucinich 15,875 0.6
Bill Richardson 12,903 0.5
Joseph R. Biden Jr. 11,475 0.4
Christopher J. Dodd 4,756 0.2
Mike Gravel 4,699 0.2
63% reporting
The Associated Press delegate count is:
Clinton 760
Obama 692
2,025 Needed
McCain 570
Romney 251
Huckabee 175
1,191 Needed
Which puts McCain way out in front over Romney and Clinton only just in front of Obama, in proportional terms.
The next few weeks are going to be something to behold, at least on the Demcratic side.
On the other side, thanks McCain, I don’t like your politics, but my betting account going to be looking happy!
There ya go….Obama is back in front in New Mexico. That’s how you d it!
Allocation of delegates is slow in some states…
only 57% of the total delegates winable from todays vote is allocated 2date 963
Notice some sites are showing cum totals including PRE today delegates won,
whilst others are including existing Super delegates pledged and varying how many each has pledged !……Clinton has approx a net 90 gain on Super dele’s
CLEARLY Ferny , the team let you down on New Mexico in your absence
or rather the ships crew
California: Clinton 53 to 41…12% margin , the narrowing continues
all is quiet a the crew celebrate todays ‘ momentum victory’
Now down to 11 at 78% counted. It’s like drops of water, one drip at a time. Down to below 10 would be a good result.
Here’s the thing with California though.
From what I’ve read, they reckon that over 3 million people voted with an absentee ballet. That was from
Now, so far they’ve counted 3.2 million votes or so – 80% counted. Which means the total number of votes will be around 4 million. Which means only a million people voted today. So, while Hillary can claim victory, and certainly nobody can dispute that it’s a fair one, the fact is a lot of this wouldn’t have taken into consideration the momentum gained in the past couple of weeks.
Would she have won anyway? Probably, in fact almost certainly, but it would have been closer. How much so we will never know.
From 461….
*”that was from trailhead”, I meant to say. Oops.
Max- Another thing is that California and New York are irrelevant in choosing the POTUS. They are going to vote Democrat no matter what. The smaller “purple” states like New Mexico, Iowa and Colorado are strategically more important and Obama did well there. I’m still keeping my fingers crossed. Washington comes next and has a healthy 11 delegates. Obama is ahead by 13% in the last poll there and it’s a caucus, and I don’t think he’s lost one caucus yet (Adam predicted that).
way more than 11 delegates. 78 pledged, 19 unpledged. That and Lousiana and nebraska sunday australian time
NM: 49/48 for Obama, 85% of the count
I agree Diogenes, and the media coverage has been positive today. The story is ‘well Clinton won California, um, but apart from that didn’t really do *that* well. Tied ball game’ Which isn’t true, but seems to be exactly how it is being portrayed.
I think this quote actually sums up the upcoming primaries pretty well:
Which brings us to this question: Will Gore and Edwards come out to play?
Thanks for correcting that mac-I was reading the general election proportions. The gist is correct though. There are no polls for either Louisiana or Nebraska, a fact I’m sure will change soon.
On something out of left field, did anyone see Romneys speech to his troops today?
It creeped the bejesus out of me.
There were the usual spiels and usual crowd reactions:
“Low taxes”
Yeeeeha! goes the crowd.
“Responsible government”
And the crowd roars.
And so it went on, with the crowd reacting to his one liners like a well trained poodle.
But then he said something along the lines of “making immigration work for us rather than {insert some appropriately vague “other”}” and the crowd went comprehensively batshit.
To the point where Romney started to look just a wee bit embarrassed at the type of people that actually make up his core support base, especially since his voting record is so liberal that a northern Democrat would be proud to own it.
But then he shrugged, and sucked it all up.
When people who know better start cashing in on things like that for purely pointless, minor league political gain – it really creeps me out.
so. who won?
I can’t be ass’d reading all that
Is it the Hero and the white chick?
or the hero and the black guy? (hope not)
NM: 49/49 for Hillary, 92% of the count
Correction: 49/48 for Obama, 92% of the count
365
Ron Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Robert you never left the ship
the ship doesn’t believe Calfornia will be anything near the Clinton 55/33 margin
the Polls should narrow as the count increases….the day is Obama’s & tomorrow
Ron
The blogers here kept the faith …California is now 52 /42….only 10% margin
468 Possum- Romney has shown an admirable ability to handle what would be crippling cognitive dissonance in any normal person. The gap between reality and where his sad, little mind is would tip most people over the edge. As you say he has rebadged himself as a neo-con, clearly having no belief in neo-con values whatsoever when you look at his record. The conclusion to his speech that he would still go all the way to the White House indicates either that his reality testing is severely impaired or the he is full of sh*t, or more likely both.
“Superdelegates are party big-shots and made up one fifth of all the delegates at the convention”. They include members of Congress, National Committee, Governors and the party warhorses. In other words, the Dems Establishment. They know who is electable and who is not.
466
Max
Clinton, we have been told, and by authorities, would be the last guy (sic) standing come Feb5th, and so the problem is that now that she isn’t, it’s a quick script re-write. In other words, she’s slipped from her pedestal, or been dragged off, by the neophyte, the lanky black kid with the funny name who only a few weeks ago was just the product of feverish fantasies in Eastern liberals dreams. And, he didn’t have a snowball’s chance of surviving the incandescence of the Clinton machine.
Oh dear! It must be hard for the Clintonista to realise they’ve come so far but still have to slog it out with a figment of the fawning elite’s imaginations! LOL
Ah, Romnoid, another political tart with more money than nous!
As they say, you can buy some of the people some of the time, but you can’t buy all of the people on Super Tuesday!
Someone asked earlier about George W Bush having an antisocial personality disorder. He’s got to come very, very close IMO. Here are the criteria and how he fits in brackets.
3% in the U.S.A have Antisocial Personality Disorder (mainly men 4:1)
Its central features are:
* Deceitful. Lies incessantly. Attempts to con others for profit or pleasure
(Stab in the dark here. No WMD, Saddam involved in 9/11)
* Controlling/manipulating. A general pattern of disregard for and violation of other people’s rights.
(Where to start. Legalising torture, Gitmo, forced rendition, illegal phone taps)
* Such people are reckless of the safety of both themselves and of others.
(Would 150,000 dead Iraqis and the phrase “collateral damage” fit here?)
People with antisocial personality disorder tend :
* to experience less anxiety than do other people and
* to have difficulty learning from negative experiences.
(Never ever admitting he stuffed up, no remorse for any of the disgraceful acts during his presidency and continuing to pursue a ridiculous strategy in Iraq)
oh Romnoid says
smaller Government , lower taxes , tax cuts , fight terroism, free enterprise
Hell Howard has come back fom the dead
Why the ‘right’ lap up these shallow slogans is beyond me
477
Diogenes
The best description of GWB I’ve read was of a ‘dry alcoholic’ and their tendency to find god, think themselves infallible, and display all manor of ‘addictive’ personality traits while they kid themselves they aren’t actually alcoholics.
You’ve probably seen stuff on this?
And while we are settling some ‘predictions’, (that’s the polite word for telling ‘ignorant loathing lefties’ the facts! LOL), I seem to recall that the US was not, will not, and cannot be going into recession from another ‘authority’.
So let’s make that:
ILL (Ignorant Loathing Lefties) 2
Authorities 0
(Althought the ‘official’ negative GDP numbers won’t arrive until after the fact, let’s jump the gun, just for fun!)
BTW Ron – my presence “on the ship” is as an interested psephological observer. It’s impossible for an unreconstructed Marxist (and a historian to boot) to have any faith in any candidate put forward by the Democrats. I just thought that Obama had a chance of winning and have found his come from behind exciting. Also, while I have no illusions in his “hope” stuff at least he hasn’t bombed anywhere (yet) and he wasn’t complicit in the death of 500,000 Iraqis through sanctions like the Clintons were.
In any case it’s clear to me that Obama won. And no Smile (#409) it ain’t just about exceeding expectations. If Ron Paul got 10% that would exceed expectations but he’d still be a loser. The point is that all commentators who thought Obama had a chance said that what he had to to was keep in touch with Hillary with pledged delegates. Then he could keep up the momentum and surge ahead in the upcoming primaries. Well he’s done better than that. So far he’s won more delegates than her today. He had more pledged delegates than her already. Her increasingly narrow victory in California is unlikely to deliver much in the way of extra delegates.
He’s won today and IMHO deserves to be considered the new front runner. But the media spin appears to miss this point. Maybe it will catch up; we’ll see.
CNN has Cal, 88% counted, 52/42
…if anyone still has any popcorn left
Yes KR, I’ve seen it. Several studies have put “dry alcoholic” as the most likely mental disorder George W has.
Someone else asked earlier about the tendency of reformed alcoholics to become born-again Christians. This is a well-recognised fact and there is a whole organisation devoted to just this aim, Alcoholic Anonymous, which was partly started by the well-known neo-Nazi, Frank Buchman.
Here is a quote from the nice man “I thank Heaven for a man like Adolf Hitler, who built a front line of defense against the anti-Christ of Communism.”
Happily, many reformed alcoholics turned born-again Christians are safely tucked away in prison. Sadly, one is the US President. But not for much longer.
481
Robert Bollard
I don’t want to start a discussion on the topic here, now, or anytime soon(LOL), but that 500K dead Iraqis from sanctions is a figure which demographers have questioned. The argument goes: take out 500k from the population and project growth and you get a much lower figure than the actual estimates based on the last of Saddam’s food rationing ID’s.
It’s been a very long time since I’ve looked through this in detail, but at the time, it looked sound, and had no obvious cause for political bias.
Sometimes certain ‘numbers’ acquire unquestioned status, that’s all I’d like to point out.
I should add before I get hate mail from AA people that I was referring to the origins of AA and I am aware that it is much more secular now and does excellent work now. I gather they no longer coerce followers into becoming born-agains and I have referred patients to them.
Don’t need to accept the figures. The point is that when Madelaine Albright was questioned about it she accepted the figures and said it was worth it.
483
Diogenes
ha! Great quote.
It applies to Reagan as well, and as we all ‘know’, it was Ronnie, who almost single-handedly brought down the Evil Empire!
486
Robert Bollard
Maddy’s not the brightest light in the heavens, and I’d hardly call her defensive quip a proper reasoned argument about the details! But I agree, it was enough to get the whole sanctions V war debate off on the wrong foot.
Pollsters Performance
The pollsters had a mixed day & in some States missed the Obama surge
6 of the 7 States with consistent average weighted Poll large margins were right
3 Clinton (New York , Oklahoma ,Tenessee and 3 Obama (illinois, Utah, Georgia
1 State Minesota was way out. Only the one Poll was taken (2 weeks ago)
showing Clinton 40/33 vs actual of Clinton 32/67. Despite late surge,embarassing
3 other States grossly understated Obama’s vote despite Polls taken last 6 days
Alambama polled Clinton 47/49…actual 42/56
Colorado ..polled Clinton 32/34…actual 32/67
Delaware..polled Clinton 44/42…actual 43/53
These States delegates were too small in number to affect overall results
The most embarassing Pollster would be Zogby in California who overstated Obama’s vote or didn’t take account of postals
Zogby had Clinton 40/46 on 3/2 and Clinton 4/2 36/49 vs actual of now 52/42
Fortunately other Pollsters were alot closer
Some of the other big States States Masachussets , Missouri & New Jersey had an odd rogue Poll but other polls kept within reasonable margins
The delegate allocation coud take 24 hours due to its complexity, but when all districts are in a approx delegate count is possible with Cal the hardest to calc.
Diogenes
Thanks for the comments regarding born-agains and alcoholism; it aligns very closely with my non-professional perceptions. As for Bush’s diagnosis, you could also add all the years of risky behaviours (drugs and alcohol) he did before entering politics, and the superficial politeness he was noted for when he first became POTUS.
Robert I appreciate your comments
IF the figure is 100k rather than 500k its too many by 100k
As to ‘hope’ vs political outcomes , Obama says
he is serious about Climate change & emissions reductions ,
he opposed the Iraq war (although then not a Senator) ,
he says he does not believe in tax cuts without savings found and
He supports a form of universal healthcare vs current ‘employers’/insurers model
he says he will engage in dialogue with Iran & Syria
All of these Policys are the reverse of George Bush
Most of all being both ‘black’ and so identified with the social injustices of the poor & disadvantaged , the obligation on Obama to address these social issues
is far greater than say an Al Gore or a Clinton who “represented’ that constituency but were not generally “PART” of that constiuency
He does represent ‘change’….the question of deliverance is his legacy or not
Ron. The Pollsters didn’t get California wrong. Their polls accurately estimated voter intention on the day. The problem was the vast whack of voters voting on earlier days.
i consulted my medical thesauruses and came up with my Bush diagnosis:
Asshole-itis.
*Apologies in advance to delicate souls like David Charles who scolded me for using a word like arsehole to describe Suharto.
i feel sorry for a lot of women democrat voters who otherwise would be drawn to Obama’s message, but would find it incredibly difficult not to vote for their sister Hilary.
I reckon a fair few women dems are reluctantly voting for Hilary just because they’ve really been looking forward to voting for a woman POTUS , but now along comes this “voice of hope n change” and……what to do?
HarryH
there was an amazing 25% margin for Hiliary amongst female Democrat voters
the male Democrat vote tied between Hiliary & Obama
There was an earlier post asking why Obama, who had won well in Alabama, had gained many fewer delegates than Clinton. It seems that the allocations (in Alabama) depend on statewide results and on results in individual congressional districts. So delegates are allocated in dribs and drabs? And the states all vary! Check out more detail about the process in Alabama at http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/AL.html
Clinton has already got the Democratic nomination sewn up. It’s gerrymandered.
She is about 80 delegates ahead with major primaries to come in Texas, Ohio & Pennsylvania. Polls in all 3 have her miles ahead of Obama. In fact in Ohio no poll (to my knowledge) has Obama at 20%, so he really has no hope. States that he will win will still provide Clinton with delegates under the PR system so he won’t make up much ground.
In addition there are about 700 farcical “superdelegates” consisting of unilaterally selected party hacks and blue blood tossers. Clinton has most of these unrepresentative crust on-side, effectively freezing out Obama from winning the nomination in the likely even of a hung convention.
Obama can’t win. The establishment won’t let him and it will back Clinton who has piggy backed to the nomination on the coat tails of her husband and the established political class. That is why she is unpopular and lacks credibility with the polarised sceptics, not because she is a woman or feels a sense of “entitlement” for the presidency as reward for her service as first lady.
By the way McCain will beat Clinton because of that word, “credibility”. Independents will gravitate to him, disaffected African americans won’t turn out, and the Republican base will unite to prevent a Clinton legacy. Huckabee as a running mate will ensure the Republican base votes.
Only with Obama can the democrats win the White House. But he can’t get the nomination because of these “superdelegates” and the PR allocation of delegates. Talk about self inflicted wounds.
ViggoP ,
The same happened in reverse in Nevada.
The system in Alabama applies in all States and is a multi level proportional system but also producing different delegates between districts despite the same vote %
497
Sceptic
Not that I’d have any idea Sceptic, but it appears that the super delegate thingy is really the relief valve in the system, because if the ‘heavies’ decide that Clinton cannot win against Mccain (and they’ll have a lot more polling by then), then they could swing Obama, if he hasn’t already lost on the numbers too overwhelmingly.
In other words, if Clinton’s lead is close, and they have reason to doubt her ability to pull in the independents, or think she’ll galvanise a hostile reaction against another Clinton presidency, then maybe they’ll have the gumption to back the Barrack.
Sheesh, who really knows? Except that from what I read, Howard Dean owes the Clintons no favours, and of course you’ll have the Kennedys (but note: NOT the “Dead Kennedys”! LOL), and all the heavies who for one reason or another won’t get ‘advancement’ from Hillary…and you know, all the usual backstabbing bitchyness that’s politics!
Sceptic you are probably right in your predictions. The Democrats would be incredibly stupid to roll Obama though. Obama brings the holy trinity of politics to his party, money, the young and the swinging voter. If the machine men handle this the wrong way then all three may turn against them and may not easily forget.
I can’t accept the concept that the Democratic party have such contempt for the voters that they can use the superdelegates to usurp the will of the electorate. What happens if the superdelegates get it wrong and the punters were correct?
In addition who appointed these people? Who decided their numbers? What deals have been done? The whole thing lacks transperency and is potentially a fiddle.
There are over 700 of these buggers. The Kennedys’ are but a small number. Bill Clinton is a superdelegate, what a joke. Of course he wouldn’t be unbiased and put the party first. And I’m sure he would be wheeling & dealing to get these unrepresentative delgates to vote for his wife.
It is a terrible look. Unless Obama is 500-600 delegates in front before the convention he won’t win the nomination. He is not part of the establishment.
Sceptic
There has been no recent Polls in Ohio or Pennsylvania
Texas has had one Poll over a week ago before the Obama surge this week & before the momentum he’ll gain from today
That Poll was Clinton 48/38…not at all insumountable as the primary is on 4/3/08
The Superdelegates are not all sown up by Hillary which was the worry
Pledged Superdelegates are Clinton 193 Obama 106 with 497 unpledged
Normally they’d follow the Primary’s delegate leader but as the gap is close its too early to say where theyll land
So, how would Jesus vote?
Here to help, is the answer from ivotevalues.org:
Q – What would Jesus do on Election Day? Answer… A – If he was an American citizen, what do you think Jesus would do on Election Day? Would Jesus vote? Or would he stay home? If he did vote, which candidates would he support? Those are excellent questions…
We know that Jesus expects his followers to be salt and light in our culture (Matt. 5:13-16), and that he expects us to participate in government (Matt. 22:21). Based on his teachings, it would be safe to say that Jesus would register and vote. Shouldn’t we do the same? Who would Jesus support with his vote? Don’t you think he would he vote for the candidates that most closely represent his values? Isn’t that what we should do on Election Day?
This resource is here to help you do what Jesus would do: register to vote, encourage others to do the same, vote your values, and pray for the election and the future of our nation–because how you vote today impacts tomorrow.
“Those who vote blindly the traditional party loyalties o