5.00pm. Missouri now being called for McCain, who leads Huckabee and Romney 33.1 per cent to 31.8 per cent and 29.3 per cent. Democratic contest still too close to call in Missouri, but Obama holds a slight lead and the trend has been favouring him for some time.
4.44pm. Fox calls Alaska for Obama. Slow progress in New Mexico.
4.36pm. Everyone now calling Arizona for Clinton.
4.25pm. Fox and ABC call Colorado for Romney.
4.23pm. CBS, Fox and ABC (though not CNN) calling McCain for California.
4.21pm. Obama has hit the lead in Missouri, 49.3 per cent to 48.7 per cent with 98 per cent reporting, after a number of outlets earlier called it for Clinton. Given that Democratic delegates are allocated proportionately, this is mostly of academic interest. Not so the state’s Republican race, a winner-takes-all contest in which McCain leads Huckabee and Romney 33.3 per cent to 32.0 per cent and 29.5 per cent, also with 98 per cent reporting. Fox and ABC are calling it for McCain, but not CNN.
4.13pm. NBC and Fox are both calling California for Clinton.
4.12pm. CBS calls Montana for Romney.
3.56pm. CNN now calling Utah for Obama: he leads 53-41 with 37 per cent reporting.
3.50pm. No significant results yet from Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego or Sacramento.
3.38pm. Clinton leads 55-33 in California with 10 per cent counted, but pronounced regional variations can presumably be expected from a state that boasts both Malibu and Compton.
3.37pm. CNN calling Minnesota for Romney.
3.32pm. Fox’s call of Utah for Obama might also have been premature (I heard it on Fox News Radio; not sure it ever appeared as called on the website). Only 13 per cent reporting and Obama leads 45-44. Presumably the Fox call was based on an exit poll.
3.29pm. Clinton leads 51-40 in Arizona with 48 per cent reporting, but nobody’s calling it.
3.25pm. Fox’s call of Tennessee for Huckabee may have been premature (they’re still saying it on Fox News Radio, but not on the website). He leads McCain 34.1 per cent to 32.4 per cent with 83 per cent of precincts reporting.
3.20pm. McCain gaining on Huckabee in Missouri: now 33-32-29, compared with 35-32-27 half an hour ago.
3.15pm. Fox calls Idaho for Obama and Missouri for Clinton.
3.15pm. Fox calls Colorado for Obama.
3.10pm. Fox says Clinton wins American Samoa, and Romney wins Montana.
3.03pm. Fox News Radio reports McCain doing better than Romney in California from absent votes, but Romney doing better in normal votes. Clinton just ahead of Obama.
3.00pm. Also not sure why nobody giving Romney North Dakota, where he leads McCain, Paul and Huckabee 36-23-21-20.
2.58pm. Not sure why nobody calling Montana for Romney: he leads McCain, Paul and Huckabee 36-24-23-17 with 89 per cent of precincts reporting.
2.53pm. Nobody calling Missouri Democratic either, but Clinton leads 53-44 with 68 per cent of precincts reporting.
2.48pm. No one is calling the Missouri Republican race: Huckabee leads McCain and Romney 35-32-27 with 66 per cent precincts reporting.
2.46pm. A couple of outlets calling Georgia for Huckabee.
2.38pm. Fox calls Arizona for McCain and Tennessee for Huckabee.
2.29pm. Fox calls Utah for Obama.
2.25pm. Minnesota being called for Obama, who seems to be picking up a lot of the smaller states. Expectations he would perform well in caucuses have apparently been confirmed, boding well for him in Colorado and Idaho.
2.21pm. Fox News Radio and CNN call Connecticut for Obama.
2.15pm. Huckabee giving a speech, and not sounding of a mind to withdraw.
2.14pm. ABC calls Kansas for Obama.
2.08pm. Fox calls Oklahoma for McCain.
2.06pm. ABC also calling Utah for Romney; no surprise of course that he should carry the Mormon state.
2.03pm. Fox News projects Obama as winner of North Dakota, giving him seven states to Clinton’s six, and Utah to Romney.
1.44pm. Romney coming third behind Huckabee in many more places than expected. Almost time to call the nomination for McCain, pending one or two larger states.
1.31pm. CNN, ABC and Fox News Radio say Obama has won Alabama, which was lineball in late polling.
1.21pm. Fox calls Alabama for Huckabee.
1.18pm. Chap on Fox News Radio says McCain has won New York.
1.09pm. Fox calls Delaware for Obama.
1.07pm. CNN calls New York for Clinton, which is no surprise.
12.55pm. Fox calls Massachusetts for Clinton.
12.54pm. Chat on Fox News Radio indicates McCain is looking very good overall.
12.50pm. Winner-takes-all Republican contest for Delaware called for McCain, which was considered likely but not certain.
12.44pm. Arkansas being called for Huckabee, who is clearly doing better than expected.
12.36pm. Tennessee also called for Clinton, which was expected.
12.35pm. CNN calls Arizona for Clinton and Huckabee. The latter would be a big surprise if accurate; polls had Clinton with only a narrow lead.
12.29pm. The Times on Democratic exit polls:
The AP survey’s findings, leaked to The Times tonight before polls closed, should be treated with caution because they have been wrong before. But the early findings showed Mr Obama winning Georgia by 74 points to 25, Alabama by 59 to 37, Illinois by 69 to 29 and Delaware by 55 to 42. He also had narrower leads, possibly within the margin of error, in New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Missouri. The poll indicated Mrs Clinton was leading by seven points in New York – less than expected – and Tennessee where she had an 11 point advantage, according to the poll. In Oklahoma and Arkansas she was shown as more than 30 points ahead. In California, she is shown just ahead, by perhaps as little as three percentage points.
12.13pm. CNN is also calling Illinois for Obama and Oklahoma for Clinton on the basis of exit polling, though these of course are not winner-takes-all contests. On the Republican side, Illinois (district-level PR), Connecticut (winner takes all) and New Jersey (winner takes all) are being called for McCain, and Massachusetts (two-tier PR) for Romney. All of this is consistent with pre-poll expectations.
11.33am. Further to the previous entry: The Raw Story tells us “Geraghty’s leaks of exit poll data have not always proved accurate. For instance, his information before New Hampshire polls closed showed Senator Barack Obama defeating Senator Hillary Clinton.”
11.23am. More on exit polls from Jim Geraghty at the National Review:
The early wave in California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent. Fascinating and fun as it is, I remind my readers that this doesn’t tell us that much, as we don’t know what the district-by-district breakdown is. Also, there are three million absentee votes that I’m pretty sure are not included in this. So while these numbers are nice to hear for McCain fans, I take them with even more caution, skepticism and grains of salt than usual. Missouri: Romney 34 percent, McCain 32 percent, Huckabee 25 percent. Winner take all. If these numbers hold – and these are early voters, the later waves may change the final a bit — it’s a big, big win for Romney. Georgia: Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 31 percent, McCain 30 percent. Now on to the NYC-metro-area states: New York: McCain 46, Romney 35, Huckabee 10 percent. New Jersey: McCain 48 percent, Romney 35, Huckabee 9 percent. Connecticut: McCain 50 percent, Romney 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent. More or less what we expected. Now the big Mitt states: The early wave in Utah: Romney 91 percent, McCain 5 percent, Huckabee 1 percent. I think I’m ready to call that one. Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35. But in McCain’s home state… Arizona: McCain 44, Romney 39, Huckabee 8. That’s a heck of a lot closer than I had expected. On to the South, where the numbers at this point look good for Huckabee… Alabama: Huckabee 42 percent, McCain 33 percent, Romney 20 percent. Tennessee: Huckabee 34, McCain 28, Romney 23. Arkansas: Huckabee 33, McCain 21, Romney 19. Oklahoma: McCain 34, Huckabee 32, Romney 27. A barnburner! Delaware: Romney 43, McCain 34, Huckabee 18. Not a big state, but it’s winner take all, so I’m sure Team Romney would take it. Illinois: McCain 47, Romney 31, Huckabee 15.
11.14am. Various media outlets calling Georgia for Obama purely on the basis of exit polls.
11.10am. Jason Zengerle at New Republic on exit polls:
The perils of posting these are obvious (President Kerry and all that), but the exit poll results that I’ve seen show: Obama trouncing Hillary in Georgia, Alabama, and Illinois; Hillary trouncing Obama in Arkansas and Oklahoma; Hillary with leads in New York and Tennessee; and Obama with leads in Delaware and Utah (although there’s only one wave of exit polls for Utah). Everywhere else–including Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Arizona, and California–is extremely close.
8.20am (Eastern Australian daylight time). This post will be used to cover today’s Super Tuesday developments, though I don’t promise that my coverage will be greatly timely or comprehensive. We’ll see how we go. The action will begin in earnest when polls in most of the eastern states close at 8pm US eastern time – noon eastern Australian daylight time. Polls in all-important California close three hours later. The one conspicuous exception is West Virginia, which uniquely held a state presidential convention today rather than a primary or caucuses. This has already wrapped up, resulting in Mick Huckabee securing the 18 delegates under the winner-takes-all vote. Huckabee won on the second round of voting after trailing Mitt Romney at the first by 464 votes (41 per cent) to 375 (33 per cent), with John McCain on 176 (16 per cent) and Ron Paul on 118 (10 per cent). Paul was then excluded, and at this point McCain’s supporters were reportedly instructed to throw their weight behind Huckabee to thwart Romney. This delivered victory to Huckabee with 567 (51.5 per cent) to Romney’s 521 (47.4 per cent).
1,182 Comments
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Yep – and its a primary so it will be a lot slower with result generation.
6 or 3,966 reporting
Clinton 41%, Obama 39%
(source: Louisiana Secretary of State)
7 of 3,966 reporting
Clinton 41%, Obama 40%
(source: Louisiana Secretary of State)
Isn’t this exciting!
Louisiana: 40/40
I have seen paint drying; this is only a little more exciting. New Orleans is likely to take longer than else where and it has a big black population.
polling circus in Nebraska. Very funny.
http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=10254218
more from the paint booth – 45 of the 3,966 precincts have reported and Obama is at 47%, a 10% lead on Clinton.
Does anyone have a link to Virgin Islands results?
Louisiana Secretary of State : Unofficial Election Results Inquiry Page
http://www400.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=020908
The above could be a bad link.
Try this instead.
http://www400.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcinq&rqsdta=start
I like the county level representation on this NYTimes map. Just click on Louisiana. It shows that the vote so far is from the rural areas. You’d expect Obama to pull further ahead once what’s left of New Orleans reports.
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/demmap/index.html
Louisiana: 53/37 for Obama with 12% of the vote counted.
No counties in Louisiana. They have parishes (from when it was French).
Check out Garfield County in Washington for the Dems. The turnout was 1. Do you think someone held it in their living room?
Socrates @ 975, my theory by the time I was 8 or so, was all that dorky geek stuff must be riddled with “Boy Germs”, and thats why other girls didn’t like it — and since I had several older brothers, I must have got too many “boy germs” when I was a baby
.
By around Year 8 or 9 in junior high, sitting in advanced maths class one day – I figured that as a girl I must be a “statistical outlier”, and therefore, unfortunately, doomed to spend the rest of my life being deleted
.
And thanks to you all for the thoughts, links etc on US state breakdowns, demographics and economics in the swing-states, is the evidence I’m looking for (whether empirical or otherwise) to making my bets!
.
Louisiana: 53/39 for Obama – 31% of the count.
Louisiana: 53/39 for Obama – 48% of the count.
Robert, 976
the evidence of rich and poor voting is at http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/blog/
Qualification: although the biggest culture/region driven voting gap is for high income earners ie. Massachusetts IT enterprenuer vs. Texas shopping mall owner, this is a smaller gap for lower income voters and there are more of them.
Virgin Islands
Obama: 1772 votes (89.9%)
Clinton: 149 votes (7.6%)
Obama has won big, but that’s not surprising – two caucuses where he does well and a state with a high black population.
What’s more interesting is the Republican race. Huckerbee has won Kansas and Louisiana, and looks like taking Washington too, although that’s still too close to really call.
Granted the first two are his kind of states, but Washington is the exact opposite – its the sort of place McCain should do well in, yet he can’t even break a quarter of the vote. Sure it’s a caucus and it is hard to see how Huckerbee could get the nomination, but the Republican race looks like it has a way to go yet.
1015
feral sparrowhawk
That Huckster is a character, eh? He whooped up the ultra-conservatives in Wahington DC the other day with his line about still believing in ‘miracles’ and that he was staying in the contest.
Gotta say, he’s one oddball mix of snake-wrangling, talking in tongues mumbo jumbo and mr niceguy. A man for all seasonings, so to speak.
Another thing about Washington caucuses:
Obama has a vote count of 0ver 21,000 with 96% counted, while Huckabee is winning with under 2,000 and almost 40% counted.
Repulicans are sure as hell not pulling out voters in this state.
KR, Washington is a big time blue state, it’s no surprise that Dems have a lot higher turnout. Also, the only county so far reporting is Stevens County (all precincts reporting) which is a relatively low population county. The Dems only had a turnout of 1700 for this county. The 40% counted refers to total precincts reporting, not to the population so far counted in the way our system does.
By so far reporting, I meant reporting for the Repubs side. I also read the County results wrong; the Dems only had a turnout of 150 for Stevens County.
Louisiana: 55/38 for Obama – 82% of the count.
News from the Obama Campaign center:
Also the selection rules for the Louisiana Republican delegation:
Tuesday 22 January 2008: District Caucuses convene to choose delegates to the State Convention.
Saturday 9 February 2008: 20 of Louisiana’s delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in today’s Louisiana Presidential Primary.
* If a candidate receives a majority (more than 50%) of the statewide vote, that candidate is allocated 20 delegates.
* Otherwise, the 20 delegates will attend the Republican National Convention officially unpledged to any candidate. These delegates will be elected at the State Convention where the participants at the State Convention will alone determine if presidential preference is to be a factor in such choice and, if so, how it is to be applied.
Saturday 16 February 2008 State Convention
The convention shall convene at 10 a.m. at the Louisiana State Capitol in Baton Rouge. The election of delegates and alternate delegates to the 2008 Republican National Convention will occur at this time. The State Convention elects:
* 20 delegates allocated during the 9 February Primary.
* 21 district delegates– 3 from each of the state’s 7 Congressional Districts. The participants at the State Convention alone determine if presidential preference is to be a factor in such choice and, if so, how it is to be applied.
* 3 additional at-large delegates. The participants at the State Convention alone determine if presidential preference is to be a factor in such choice and, if so, how it is to be applied.
Since Huckabee hasn’t hit 50% of the vote, there’s really no winner from todays primary.
Louisiana: 56/37 for Obama – 89% of the count.
1018
Al
yep,but look at Utah, were Obama got more than twice the vote that McCain got! LOL
(Mitt blitzed ‘em of course, can’t think why! LOL)
1021
davidoff
All this ‘my delegate count is bigger than yours’ stuff is probably past just being tedious, and if it goes on for weeks or months, nobody, probably in the entire universe, except for some sick puppies at a blog called Pollbludgers will even notice!
Don’t you get the feeling that this will end in a draw, Obi and Hillbilly will get out their light sabres, and on a big Starship Enterprise set, do battle unto the finish!
Hey, good convention theme! Bring it on!
This is a fantastic win for Obama. I have compared his leaked projected wins in these three states to see whether his figures are realistic, optimistic or pessimistic. And his projected figures are VERY PESSIMISTIC compared to the real outcome. This has to bode well for the rest of the campaign.
Louisiana Predicted win 54/ 44 observed 55/ 37 ie 8% better than expected
Nebraska Predicted win 60/ 40 observed 67/ 32 ie 15% better than expected
Wash. Predicted win 60/ 40 observed 68/ 31 ie 17% better than expected
He also wins by 36 on pledged delegates and now has more pledged delegates than Clinton.
Davidoff #1021. According to CNN, Clinton’s superdelegate lead is 223 to 131 (92). If Obama leads in pledged delegates by 72 then her overall lead is now just 20. That will be long gone before March. She will have to win all of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas to have a hope.
East of Washington State is pretty Red (logging and farming towns). It is just the population is based more in the West and that is clearly more blue.
As I noted before Garfield County in the east of Washington only had democratic voter.
Virgin Islands
Obama: 1772 votes (89.9%)
Clinton: 149 votes (7.6%)
“We believe Senator Obama will receive all three of our pledged delegates,”
One democratic voter that was supposed to be.
#1025
Kirribilli Removals
Well – according to an email I received earlier today – 95% of females in the US think that size matters.
Possibly – but my feeling is that the Obama momentum will collapse the Hillary campaign (but lets wait till the end of the month to see how things are shaking up).
More on the who can beat McCain, from CNN:
Clinton does have higher negatives than Obama — and McCain. Forty-four percent of the public say they don’t like Clinton, compared with 36 percent who don’t like McCain and 31 percent who don’t like Obama, according to the CNN poll conducted February 1-3.
Why does Obama do better against McCain than Clinton? Obama does do a little better than Clinton with independents and Republicans.
But the big difference is men: Men give McCain an 18-point lead over Clinton, 57 percent to 39 percent, according to the CNN poll. The margin of error for that question was plus or minus 5 percentage points.
But if McCain and Obama went head to head, McCain’s lead among men shrinks to three, 49 percent to 46 percent — statistically a tie.
Women, on the other hand, vote for either Clinton or Obama by similar margins.
Some Democrats may be worried about how Obama will fare with white voters. Whites give McCain a 15-point lead over Clinton, (56 percent for McCain, 41 percent for Clinton).
But Obama actually fares better than Clinton with white voters. McCain still leads, but by a smaller margin, (52 to 43 percent).
Obama argues that he can reach across party lines. And he does do a little better than Clinton with Independents and Republicans, at least in these polls.
But the big difference is that Clinton doesn’t draw very well with men. Obama does.
…this is a race, not about race, but very much about gender, and who appeals to whom. Clearly, Hillary is not pulling enough of the male vote in the demographics she needs, so it’s going to go the wire.
Oh lordy, I feel a stoush coming on.
1031
davidoff
“Collapse” is not likely, not with Clinton, she’ll fight to the last breath if needs be, so I’m expecting a shocker wrestling match. Obama has the big Mo all right, but he’s still got a formidable opponent and a big demographic staring him down in Ohio and Texas, but yes, for now, looking good.Not to mention all that Michigan and FLorida stuff. Expect ugliness if she needs to scrap dirty.
(On a bright personal note, I may even win my bet on him! McCain and Obama, my b$g result! LOL)
New polls out today in Virginia show Obama up 59/39, having been down 25/49 on October. Similar on Maryland where he’s up 52/33 now having been down 48/29 in October. I think Billary is on the ropes like Frazier up against Muhammed Ali.
Well according to Frank Rich of the NYTimes, I’m dead wrong, this is about race, and the remaining battle between Obama and Clinton hinges on it ie she’s got to hold the Latinos.
But if you read nothing else about the Clinton campaign, don’t miss this, it’s got some real zingers:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/10/opinion/10rich.html?hp
…and Rich also thinks that the campaign is headed straight for a head on ugly stoush, which CLinton has already shown she’s prepared to engage.
Here is another reason the neocons hate Hillary. This Romney guy is castigating a fellow Repug blogger for voting Juan McCain.
“I’m still trying to picture the Hillary vs. McCain debates. She talks while he nods (off). It ain’t going to be pretty.”
It’s completely true though. She would absolutely wipe the floor with McCain. Obama wouldn’t destroy McCain quite as badly methinks.
I do so miss the commentary of Dr. Adam “put away the glasses, HRC’s gonna bolt in” Carr. Maybe he’s pre-occupied with with the monumental election scandal in………..Spitzbergen, wasn’t it? Or perhaps, the Tierra Del Fuego Primarys.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spitsbergen
Today’s Bludger has been an absolute treat to scroll. Wonderful stuff. Nailed in seven words by the Good Doctor (Diogenes):
“This is a fantastic win for Obama.”
1036
Diogenes,
…if a fair whack of voters think the economy is cactus and the best way to start fixing it is not to spend $10bn a month on a totally futile and ludicrous war in Iraq, then McCain is already sunk.
If McCain nods off for Clinton, he’ll nod off for Obama, and the implication that Obama is some sort of policy vacuum is to equate clever campaigning strategy with his entire policy position. (None of the party heavies think he’s just a slogan, for example)
I don’t think so! (to, ah, paraphrase! LOL)
It’s already factored into the numbers, Obama leads McCain quite clearly on match up polls, and that, I think, is all the ‘hard’ info we have on this subject.
Besides, imagine Clinton bagging McCain for a war she voted to pursue? (No matter who she ‘parses’ it now, that’s the blow she’ll be getting from the moment she accepts the party nomination)
that is of course, ‘how she parses it now’
the dyslexic digit strokes agaun!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I am not normally one to rant but here goes a small effort.
In the end, if it is Clinton vs McCain the entire Republican supporter base is going to get out the vote even if McCain is in a coma. Meanwhile, Clinton would be struggling to get out 65% of the Demoratic vote. She can’t win this time and she never had a chance of winning. The best she could do is become the first female major party candidate. If she wanted that moment in history, 2004 was the time. Not now. Her time is over; time to get out of the way.
Kristoff on women leaders throughout history and some modern pyshcological studies about them:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/10/opinion/10kristof.html?hp
3/3/08 looms as possible Hillary concession day
By then 37 States & Territories would have voted with only 16 remaining
Of the 37 decided I predict Obama 24 to 12 (plus 1 draw)
and a delegate lead from Primarys of 130-150 (excl Superdele’s)
The pressure on the Superdelegates to joimn our ship barrack will be immense
Well, here is my rationale. I’m guessing the the Clinton camp were not expecting to be working this hard at this point in the campaign – and by working hard I mean having to spend significant money. We are already seeing signs of financial stress in the Clinton camp and by the end of this months the Obama camp are going to do a press release that will dump all over the Clinton campaign on fund raising capability, state count and delegate count. This will include bragging rights on state victories in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Virgin Islands (done and dusted) together with District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii and Wisconsin. The Clinton camp will probably get Maine (small in terms of delegates) – and that will be the big picture before we hit what the Clinton camp refer to as their next firewall – Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island in the begging of March but any glory there will be overshadowed by Obama taking Wyoming and Mississippi and the overall lead in the delegate race. From this point on – I don’t see a plausible Clinton exit strategy and I figure the funding flow will dry up real fast and at the same time the Obama camp will go into overdrive.
get the champagn glass’s out now davidoff …
‘in the interests of the Party that I love ……’
1043
davidoff
That’s possibly an accurate set of predictions Zino, but what I cannot imagine is Hillary just ‘rolling over’. (I’ll resist any further temptations with that metaphor! LOL)
Look, I think Obama is in with a very good chance to roll her (oops!), but he’s got to get there, and she’ll do anything, and I mean anything, to stop him. She won’t just ‘collapse’, she’ll be out fighting to the last delegate, and I can’t see it being pretty. That’s all I was trying to say.
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