Been a bit busy lately, so it’s past time for a new US elections thread. Since Super Tuesday we’ve had an anticipated string of Barack Obama victories from caucuses in Nebraska, Washington and Maine and a primary in Louisiana, along with a narrow win for John McCain in Washington and probably meaningless victories for Mike Huckabee in Kansas and Louisiana. Tomorrow US time we have both parties holding primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,263 Comments
I think if Obama wins his running mate should be Evan Bayh. From a medium sized red state Indiana. Not that much older than Obama. Was governor at a very young age. Endorsed Clinton so would appease Hillary backers. He had an extremely good record as governor and achieved the largest margin of victory for a democrat in his state for the senate. From the a conservative wing of the democrats. Plus if really lucky any small native son effect might spill over the border to western Ohio
1170 Jen Says: “The ‘Obama is different thing’ is potent for those of us who aspire to see real change, and Hillary represents the old order.”
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Thnx Jen, I been wondering why so many have all-but-deified Obama as some sort of saint, while contrasting Clinton as one of the Four Horse(wo)men of the Apocalypse.
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Forget the vitriol against Clinton, I’m more astonished by the squeaky-clean vision of sainthood being bestowed on Obama by all and sundry. Anybody would think he was Nelson Mandela, Mahatma Ghandi and Superman all rolled into one, fighting for truth, justice and the American way (minus the cape).
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I’m sorry, I don’t buy it. For those aspiring to see “real change”, ( I’m sorry again, I keep choking with laughter on that one) I may be a pessimist, or a bit thick – but this is the USA we are talking about, isn’t it?
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OOpps..sorry…wrong thead.. muchas apologias
1181
MayoFeral
You beat me to it, and said it all.
So, a running mate for McCain? How about…
McCain and Zimmer Frame
McCain and Imperial Pretensions
McCain and Economics 101
McCain and Neocon Circus
McCain and Hard Right Supreme Court
McCain and ‘Pro-Life’ (Read: No Choice)
…they sound like winners to me.
(There ya go zoom, is that better? LOL)
zoom,
the reason we were having some fun about Clinton is precisely because she’s renknown for holding grudges and can be pretty vicious, even to other Democrats. Don’t kid yourself she’s just ‘misunderstood’, she can get ugly, and so we were having a bit of fun about it.
Sorry if the comic satire isn’t to your taste, but believe me, it’s mostly in fun, but Clinton’s reaction to losing sure as hell won’t be!
Rain @ 2, I think you have Baracknophobia.
Rain at 2
For all the hyperbole, I haven’t anyone classify Obama as a saint, nor Hillary as the devil incarnate.
The consensus appears to simply be that Obama is a superior candidate to Hillary in many respects. I’m sure Hillary has her advantages too.
Unfortunately, we cannot package together the two with all their advantages and none of their disadvantages.
Nevertheless, I’m sure either candidate will comprehensively thrash the republicans (even McCain, who isn’t too bad as republicans are concerned).
Unless Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton dramatically change the current trend, a hung convention seems certain with all the accompanying problems. Because of the proportional allocation of delegates it’s likely to be close till the end. The role of the super delegates will be crucial and controversial and may help the Republicans.
I suspect that all the SuperDelegates will get together and vote for whichever candidate has more elected delegates. I suspect that will be Obama, he’s well ahead on that score.
They will make this clear well before the convention and so the convention will be the appropriate “crowning” rather than an actual negotiation.
That’s what Dean has been hinting at.
Rain -
Whitehouse…Black president.
How much change do you need, woman?
I don’t know which thread this belongs on but further to a question Rain (?) posted on teh previous topic, here is a link to an excellent article in the Economist on the likely geographical distribution of the US recession (and they are not talking about it hypothetically). See
http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10650727
The worst hit states are forecast to be Michigan, Florida, California, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, and a clutch of central states (Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri) that already have the highest unemployment.
Note that several of these (notably Michigan and Ohio) are swing states.
This person does a “Possum” with Obama’s numbers:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/9/13227/22519/239/453361
Al said on the previous thread:
“From the haven of neutral political coverage, Fox News are reporting that Mike Huckabee is challenging result of the Washington caucuses”
Al, I hope you had tongue firmly in cheek when you used Fox and neutral political coverage in the same sentence
Considering the model as put forward in that previous post has Obama running close in Maine and Washington, we can call it pretty ‘conservative’! LOL
Rain @ 2 – I certainly don’t see Clinton as the devil incarnate, and why see seems to be so hated by many Americans puzzles me.
However, I wouldn’t vote for her. Her willingness to vote for most of Bush’s worse policies suggests that as Prez she would bring little new thinking to the job – she’s too integrated with the Washington establishment and we’re likely to see many of Bill’s cabinet recyclede, and I don’t believe she would try too hard to get out of Iraq.
OTOH, I know little about Obama. Frankly, I’m suspicious of politicians that are heavy on rhetoric. IME, most of it ends up being only BS. A link on Clinton -v- Obama’s voting record posted earlier today by Rates Analysis adds to my suspicion.
It’s not so much what he voted for or against, though some concern me, but the number of contentious issues he failed to vote on that have me wondering. Did he have valid reasons for missing the vote or did he miss them so that future opponents would have less to hammer him on?
These are of particular concern:
Jun-07 – Attorney General No Confidence Vote: Vote so that a fillibuster can’t be used for the vote of no-confidence for Attorney General Gonzales Jul-07 – Sense of the Senate on Guantanamo Bay Detainees: Vote that the Guantanamo detainees not be released on American soil or transferred to American facilities Sep-07 – Expressing the Sense of Congress Regarding Federalism in Iraq: Vote to support the opinion that Iraq work toward a loose federalist state and that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard be considered a terrorist organization Sep-07 – Expressing the Sense of Congress Regarding Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: Vote to support the opinion that the United States should use its military, diplomatic, economic, and intelligence instruments to combat Iranian activities inside Iraq that are designed to destabilize Iraq
Bush has offered to support McCain.
The Kiss of Death descends on the republicans.
Mayo-that is the point as far I’m concerned.
Clinton supported the war in Iraq, therefore she is closely aligned with the thinking and political manouevering that has brought us (the West) to where we are today.
Obama , on the other hand has been an outspoken critic of the invasion, and therefore represents a view that the neo-conservative approach to dealing with the many fraught and dangerous situations we face is not the way to go. He may not have the answers, nor is he the Messiah, but he does encapsulate a wllingness to approach the presidency differently, and Hillary doesn’t on her past form. Therefore I hope he wins.
Glen- The name I hear the most as VP for Macca is Gov Pawlenty. Evidently a rising Repug star. Impeccable conservative and popular.
Clinton has sacked her manager:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/us/politics/11dems.html?hp
Basil: What could be at all biased about a network that asks the question “George Bush: Good President, or Best President Ever?”
Listening to Obama’s speech on CNN yesterday, it struck me how good an orator he was. It was a huge contrast from the current President, and surely something that Americans pick up on.
Al, what was his famous quote about fool me once, you cant get fooled agin or some such, I guess that kinda applies to Fox’s question, que.
Ahhh, I knew I’d find it:
“There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.”
Obama says it all about Hillary (and no nasties either, zoom)
She’s a smart person, she’s a capable person, she would be a vast improvement over the incumbent,” he said in response to a question at a rally with 3,000 people, with 1,200 more listening in an overflow room. “What is also true is, I think it’s very hard for Senator Clinton to break out of the politics of the last 15 years.”
The pattern appears to continue as on Super Tuesday, with Obama winning (with varying degrees of convincingness) many States, and Clinton thrashing him in the larger States (Ohio, Texas, etc.). Quite frankly, it would be suicidal for the Dems to refuse to seat the delegates from Florida (4th-largest state in USA) and Michigan (8th-largest). Both States could vote Republican this election if spurned by the Democrats.
This leaves two options:
1. Hold a re-vote and seat the subsequently elected delegates. This would spark resentment among the voters, and those of us who remember the Lindsay re-poll in 1996 should remember how the electorate rewards being forced to the polls again – with a more convincing performance in the same direction (in these cases, a strong Clinton win, at least in Florida – Michigan would be more problematic).
2. Seat the current delegates. This would cause strife within the Democrat camp, as Clinton critics would accuse her of gaining an unfair advantage (mostly over her alleged campaigning in Florida – it appears to have just been a few fundraiser events), and it would cast doubt on the legitimacy of the process if these votes made the difference between Clinton gaining or losing the nomination (as they may very well do).
Overall, the best of two bad options (there is NO good choice here) is to hold a revote. This would remove the ambiguity from these two very important States, and clear up questions within the nomination.
Mathew Cole at 24
The pattern has only continued up to the part where Obama has been winning smaller states. Whilst undoubtedly favourite in Ohio and Texas, I highly doubt that Clinton will thrash Obama in those states.
I agree there needs to be a revote in Florida and Michigan presuming matters are not decided before then.
Rain #2
Perhaps if there was no big O and the contest was Clinton vs McCain ,
what would blogers say ?
I’d be saying I’m with Clinton particularly universal healthcare principle but disagree on her initial Iraq & Guantanamo support , her over zealous Israel support vs Palstinians , her flip flop re Immigration licences , some questions on economics
and my perception Hillay’s political expediency is stronger than her policy purity
Obama I feel is stronger than Hillay on ALL of the above except economically where I reserve……now do you have any spare ice mate
18
Diogenes Says:
True as he’s from a Purple State, nevertheless, McCain needs someone young but also conservative he may go with Tim Pawlenty but he could choose, Bobby Jindal the Indian-American Louisiana Governor, Charlie Crist the Floridian Governor, Congressman Paul Ryan a 38 year old from Wisconsin or Mike Pence from Indiana.
McCain will have a lot of choices as he could go for Rice or Powell if he wanted to and perhaps should if Obama wins the Democratic nomination. But what he needs is a darling of the conservatives, who’s younger than 71 and someone who wont scare off independents which counts our Huckleberry or Romoromon.
Ron -
if it was down to Clinton vs McCain: no contest. Democrat over Repug all the way.
However, right now we (they, but it impacts on us all) get to choose.
So aim high.
If the conservative, parochial US can elect a black president who rejects the currrent warmongering approach to global politics then something big is happening.
Even if he does do the Ra-Ra rally crap, which I really don’t like.
No offence, but absolute nonsense. It would be highly, highly problematic to give any credibility to any ‘result’ in those states at present – this would favour Clinton, and would thus be tainted given that she breached the spirit of the ‘no campaigning’ deal.
I tend to agree with whoever said that it would not be surprising to see the superdelegates vote for whoever had the bare majority on the non-superdelegate count. Although on the other hand I read an article today suggesting that Clinton has about twice as many superdelegates who have committed to vote for her as Obama does.
As for the “why do people hate Hillary” thing – some observations/opinions:
- hard right wingers hate how “non-traditional” a woman she is and are automatically repelled by the notion of a powerful yet compassionate woman
- the right also hate her for trying to introduce socialised healthcare and thereby bring the US up to date with the rest of the civilised world
- she is emblematic of the perceived problems of the Clinton Administration, including supposed moral weakness (”moral” in the Bible bashing sense)
- some people honestly believe that women lack the capacity to rule
- on the left, many see her as hawkish (which she certainly is) on foreign policy and regard this as inconsistent with her supposed liberalism
- on the left there is also a perception that she and Bill are ruthless and prepared to trample all who get in their way. Her machine has a way of creating that air too – just look at how every single thing Obama does carries an echo from the Clinton machine talking it down or criticising it or calling him a hypocrite as appropriate
- Clinton takes a great deal of money from certain industries (e.g. big drug companies) which is entirely at odds with her supposed centre left values (Obama is no angel in this regard either).
“But what he needs is a darling of the conservatives, who’s younger than 71 and someone who wont scare off independents which counts our Huckleberry or Romoromon.”
Maybe he should try Hugh Grant.
Also, it will be very interesting to see the next few primaries – I have a feeling Obama will romp them in.
My reasoning: previously, there was an underlying assumption that, although Obama was interesting to Democrat voters, he would ultimately be wiped out on Super Tuesday. As such he was never considered a ‘real’ candidate.
Now, however, there is a realisation that he could actually win the candidacy, with a secondary realisation that he is more than capable of taking on the Republicans, whoever they should nominate.
As such I think a number of people who would have voted for Clinton as the inevitable choice will now reconsider and may well vote for Obama as both a realistic but idealistic choice.
Agreed Patrick -
it’s the Momentum.
And the party will back who can win.
And right now, it looks like Obama.
But that’s just it – the Republicans have completely forgotten what “conservative” means. The only type of candidate who would meet the above description would be an old school Reaganite conservative, i.e., someone who believes that the government’s role in the lives of citizens should be minimised.
The problem is, the Republicans at the moment only believe in small government when it comes to the rich paying taxes, but when it comes to the PATRIOT Act mandating brain implants to monitor citizens they’re all for it. Likewise they believe that religion should be freely expressed, but simultaneously accept that fundamentalist Christianity should be rammed down everybody’s throats. And on and on – position after position that is in theory broadly conservative but in practice little more than invasive social engineering. As such, they scare the absolute s##t out of moderates and progressives.
I guess what I’m saying is – they have forgotten their all-important libertarian streak, just like the Liberal Party in Australia. They need to rediscover the message that a strong country comes from the government just getting out of your face and letting you live your life with genuine freedom.
The only candidate who is even close to that is Ron Paul, and they would never in a million years let him become the VP candidate.
Krugman’s article in the NY Times picks up on some of the points that Rain makes.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/opinion/11krugman.html?hp
The cult of personality and unfair rhetoric aimed at RHC is pervasive. Obama would be a fine POTUS, but so would RHC. I see her in the Kevin Rudd mould, a capable administrator and manager, and like her husband able to grasp the detail in complex policies. Obama seems more in the Reagan mould, the great communicator who delegates everything.
PB #29,
Had you bothered to read my whole post, you would have noted that I advocated a re-vote rather than simply seating the current delegates. Quite frankly, if you want to make yourself look stupid by asserting that Florida (for example) could never vote Republican even if the Democrats insult them as well as by ignoring half of my post when replying to it, go ahead and be my guest – it should be amusing.
Mathew, my apologies – I didn’t read your whole post.
I do, however, disagree. The only way that the issue will become problematic is if the Clintons are allowed to revive it at the time of the caucus proper.
There is no way (IMHO) that Democrats and independents in those states will vote Republican just because they have been denied the chance to select the Democrat candidate.
One reason people oppose Hillary is the dynasty thing. They’ve had nearly twenty years of Bushes and Clintons, and are looking for a change.
Good point, and that leads to a perception of an air of entitlement in the Clinton camp – like the nomination is theirs and Obama is trying to steal it from them.
PB #36,
They don’t have to vote Republican for (especially) Florida to fall. They just have to not vote, which is far more likely if they feel disgusted with the whole shebang than if their voice is acknowledged. The Republican voters will do the rest.
True, but on the other hand – the ones who would be put off would have voted for the unsuccessful primary candidate anyway.
So for instance, is a Clinton fan who never got to vote in a primary less likely to vote for Obama than a Clinton fan who did get to vote in a primary and lost (overall)?
A valid point PB, but people will be feeling bitter more over not having their voices heard than over the fact that the other candidate got up for the nomination. A lot of people out there would consider it to be a matter of principle, and react accordingly.
If you’re happy and you know it, clap your hands!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23194566-601,00.html
I posted a link on the other thread that outlined the options for Florida/Michigan Dems.
1. Have another primary or caucus as they see fit.
2. Appeal to the DNC for a ruling – neither have done so at the moment.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080207/pl_bloomberg/atlh4uuvj_ti;_ylt=Ah6iZtwlX8a2fERs6UWksjOM5QcF
GG-
how can we convince him to stay?
Gotta work in our favour.
Or alternatively, will Floridians recognise that their voice was diminished by the (Florida) Republican Party introducing legislation bringing forward their primary day in contravention of both Republican and Democratic Party rules and retaliate against the party that caused the problem in the first place?
I still think that if Clinton seriously pushes to get the Florida’s and Michigan’s delegates seated (which the latter being completely ridiculous with Michigan’s ballot paper having no Edwards, Richardson, Biden or Obama), it will hurt her with superdelegates; possibly with extra emphasis in the traditionally early states, such as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Glen- I’ve looked a bit more at Tim Pawlenty and he’s very impressive. I note the Repug National Conference is being held in his home town, St Pauls. Also, something amazing has happened in Minnesota. In 1984 it was the ONLY state not to vote Reagan and now it’s on the red side of purple. He has some valuable attributes to Macca:
1. Young
2. Very popular amongst Conservatives
3. Good speaker
4. Purple state
5. Expertise in health care (I saw Sicko last night, boy do they need that!)
6. Interested in climate change (not sure how the US views this issue)
7. Keen on trade with China
8. Retired a deficit without raising taxes
Looks like he might fit your description of “what he needs is a darling of the conservatives, who’s younger than 71 and someone who wont scare off independents”.
While we are on Veeps, it would seem that Richardson could be a good combination with Obama, would help to build the Latino vote.
That’s it! Obama is stuffed! Completely ruined, hexed, jinxed, or however you want to say it:
William Kristol has written an Op Ed in the NYTimes which says Obama is the likely winner!
OMG!!!!!!!!
William Kristol has NEVER been right in his entire life!
oh, the tragedy, oh the humanity!!!
So close, so close, so close we could smell the victory rising up on wings of hope, but alas, the curse of William Kristol has struck down Obama in his prime!
William Kristol, what have you done???????????
Zedder @ 34 – Thnx for that link, it largely echoes my concerns, especially the line:
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“I won’t try for fake evenhandedness here: most of the venom I see is coming from supporters of Mr. Obama, who want their hero or nobody.”
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Rightly or wrongly, thats been my perception too. Its also not whether either is a sore loser, but whether their voter supporters are. Clinton voters will likely continue to vote for Obama in the Big One in November, despite their disappointment – but I dont see that in the reverse scenario, the Obama supporters have been somewhat feral, (eg the ‘South Park’ attacks have been extroardinarily over-the-top vicious, but have left Repubs alone?) and the Obama camp might force the nomination on grounds of threatening to be very sore losers, far more than Clinton’s.
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As for numbers of delegates and states won, Its all in the swing-states – with large solid red and blue states, doesn’t matter much whether Clinton or Obama wins X more or less candidacy Delegates in those states, no matter how *big* they are, or how popular the vote was. Its which candidate can win the key swing-states, and thats where unpledged super-delegates come in to play I guess – which is interesting – two of the largest swing-states are Florida and Michigan.
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Except all those wins (no matter how useless or meaningless they are in reality) boosts morale and momentum in the remaining states.
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Which sounds politically very fishy to me. Thats maybe why they weren’t allowed to go to primaries early in the first place (despite giving plenty of advance notice), Florida/Michigan delegates can’t be allowed to be seated, the only option is to re-poll. So clinton is damned if she does, damned if she doesn’t – either way, she’s toast, and perhaps that was designed that way by all the Dems who hate her. But they can’t have her burned at the stake, (she’s still a high-profile Dem, after all) so they’ll make it look like she only lost by a little bit.
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The third option, which is overwhelmingly most likely to happen is that the delegates will be seated by a motion from the floor of the convention after the nomination is settled.
My motto in life has always been “Worship no man”. He is not a messiah, just a naughty boy who speaks well.
HuffPo Header:
“Weekend At HILLARY’S
Loses in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington State, And The Virgin Islands, Fires Campaign Manager, Then Loses In Maine”
I won’t just cut and paste this guys comments but if you go to this site and look at the post that follows, the reason Obama lovers don’t like Billary are spelt out in graphic detail. It comes down to moral character and integrity vs political expediency and win-at-all-costs.
rafael | February 10, 2008 at 07:10 PM
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obama_wins_Maine.html#comments
Sorry state of the liberal party
Just take a look at the comments.
http://blogs.theage.com.au/yoursay/archives/2008/02/liberal_lashing.html
You have to admire Mal for trying but he hasn’t a hope in hell.
Dio @ 53,
Interesting link. So easy to forget all that Clinton stuff.
The Finnigans -
you don’t have to worship anyone to feel immense relief at the prospect of having a POTUS who can string a sentence together.
Jen – still a naughty boy.
Fins -
My favourite kind.
Jen – it should be Lady first. That is why he is a naughty boy.
In fact the Republicans pretty much got the response to the Florida/Michigan shenanigans right: halve the delegates.
About 80 minor functionaries miss out on their voting rights in August (should help deter the State parties from the same stunt next time).
The people still have their voice (avoids the sort of train crash you can see this becoming for the Dems).
The Democrat response, on the other hand, runs the risk of looking fantastically inept if the nomination is still in the balance at convention time. I’m not sure, by the way, that a re-vote is allowed – I think it may require State legislation or executive decree, which with a Republican governor in Florida is presumably not likely to happen. (Happy to be corrected on that requirement if I am wrong).
Ramos-Horta on Life Support
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23192543-601,00.html
He’s in the Royal Darwin Hospital ventilated with two gunshots, one to abdomen and other to arm. Could be quite a struggle but is in with a very good chance. Things must be quite tense in the RDH.
Dio @ 61,
Significant risk of loss of some brain function, isn’t there?
Brain function should be fine as he didn’t arrest. I just saw that he needed sixteen units of blood and that his chest injuries are the most serious. That’s a lot of blood and implies major vessel damage. RDH does not have a cardiac surgeon or a thoracic surgeon…
Kirrabilli @ 12:
Good find, thanx!
Diogenes @ 63 – for a VIP they would’ve flown in a full specialist FIFO team, wouldn’t they? What they usually do, I thought.
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60
Dyno Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
In fact the Republicans pretty much got the response to the Florida/Michigan shenanigans right: halve the delegates.
think Hillary will concede in March anyway ,
but looking to actual Presential election Florida is winnable for the Dmocrats & represents a massive 10% of the college votes needed to win the Presidency, so
resolving Florida rather than leaving as a “problem” is to Democrats interests.
The problem is the current 2 Democrat candidates prioritys lie elsewhere
You all know by now the so called “Bradley effect” where the voters told pollsters that they preferred the black candidate and then voted the other way.
Let me now coin another one. I call it the “Obama effect” – this is where the delegates told the pollsters that they preferred the black candidate and then voted the other way. You heard it first here.
Is the Convention ballot secret?
KR @ 48
i’m surprised William Kristol makes it to work each day.
When he looks down at his feet i’m amazed that he makes the correct call which foot to put in front of the other.
Hey Jen
forget Hugh Grant; crawling out of a bunker near you anytime soon Zimmer McSame’s hero campaign switch; enjoy.
http://photos1.blogger.com/photoInclude/blogger/7338/1841/1600/ChristianCombat-e.jpg
Finnigan #67: The Bradley effect didn’t manifest itself in South Carolina or Louisiana. It hasn’t manifested itself in Washington or Kansas or Maine. If Clintonistas are relying on that then all I can think of is a certain bunker in Berlin and a desperate dream of a replay of the “miracle of the house of Brandenburg”.
Finnigans, let me coin the “Hillary effect”. This effect is where a party elects a candidate for the purposes of spiting their enemies rather than attracting voters and ends up losing an election. The democrats already gambled on their gal winning the nomination by Super Tuesday and they gambled wrong, now they have a mess on their hands which can only be solved by a gracious concession speech by Hillary Clinton which makes the convention a formality.
RB:
JFK had 14 years of federal experience (Congress and Senate) on which to run for President. Obama has had 3.
#71 and #72 – What about the “Nelson Effect”? Where the most important person to be consulted over the “Sorry” apology is him. He’s real Nowhere Man.
Hmmm Finnigans, good one @ 74.
There might be a Rudd effect, too, have a policy for ten years, but only work out the details the day before it all gets unveiled.
#73 JP – Obama doesn’t need any experience. He is the experience, a messiah, walks on water, turns bread into the Big Mac. Kumbaya my Lord, Kumbaya.
76 Finnigans – turning water into wine is more impressive…
65 Rain- It’s not quite as easy as that. He might need to be put on heart bypass if the vessel damage is very close to his heart and I’m pretty sure they don’t have that at RDH. As you might be aware, cardiothoracic surgery is not really FIFO stuff as he might need a few trips to theatre and ongoing care. The CT and angiogram will help them work out what they need to do. The decision whether to transfer him to a major trauma hospital (would be the RAH in this case) or to fly people in would be made at a VERY high level, presumably between DFAT and the Fed Health Dept.
I’ll be very interested to see what happens. I hope he gets the best care possible and survives.
Hillary Raises $7.4 Million Online Since Super Tuesday
By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Matt Stoller at Open Left writes about the phenomemal support,
“It’s remarkable, because it is converting voters and supporters into activists and donors, only it’s probably not all the creative professional class anymore. Clinton, like Dean, became an underdog, a real underdog after February 5, with more public support than Village support, and her public directly responded over the internet to close this gap.
In other words, the Obama campaign has had a strategy of cultivating online donors and activists, they know how to do it, and they are very good at it. The Clinton campaign has not done any of this particularly well, because it hasn’t been their strategy in the past. And somehow, they are at rough parity over the last 48 hours.
Curiously, Obama’s site is not broadcasting dollars raised, only the number of donations. Its goal is 500,000 donors by March 4.
Bottom line: There’s a lot of Democrats giving money this election cycle. They want their White House back and they’re willing to shell out to get it.
Finnigans, I think most of us will agree we hope the “Nelson effect” remains in place for many a year to come. Or at least until the election.
TW @72,
This doesn’t look to me like a race that’s over.
It will be over if Obama wins on March 4. But till then, I don’t think conceding will be anywhere near Hillary’s mind.
The parties have insane rules: too complex, inconsistent between States (though more so for the Republicans), and with arbitrary power allocated to the super-delegates. The Democrats are just the unlucky ones who’ve been caught out first with a really close race that exposes all these wrinkles to public scrutiny.
If Hillary does ok on March 4 this thing will keep running for quite a while yet.
Rain- I hope Hillary runs the country better than her campaign if she gets in. The word “inept” springs to mind.
#81 – Dyno – The Lady is not for turning!! – Oh, we miss you Maggie.
Glen ,Diogenes. Am i missing something?
Tim Pawlenty. The governor of Minnesota? I’ve seen some not so good polls of him. You guys have been listening to the republicans and fox news again havn’t you.
Don’t his state’s bridges fall down? Don’t get me wrong i think he would be a great running m8 for the GOP front runner (for the democrats). I can image McCain argues about tax and spending cuts. Obama talks about his running m8’s cost cutting on vital infrastructure like say i don’t know, bridges perhaps. As for the 1984 election as lovley their victory in Minnesota it is important to remember the Democrats candidate Walter Mondale was a senator from that state and hence a native son. Pawlty’s margins were never huge and ive seen bluer states with Gop Governors.
Rain- Re Ramos-Horta. There is a well-recognised syndrome called the VIP syndrome. Famous people have WORSE outcomes than average patients for several reasons. Could I tell some stories…
There’s an article on it at Wachter’s site here:
http://www.the-hospitalist.org/blogs/wachters_world/archive/2007/11/21/dennis-quaid-s-kids-are-vips-safer.aspx
Scotty, the Repugs are only making up the field
the flock have gathered for the revolution
Scotty, Obama will most likely lose the nomination, Clinton has leads in the States that matter the big states whereas Obama is picking up the crumbs and despite his ’surge’ he’s still behind in pledged delegates. Obama cannot be taken seriously unless he wins big State primaries and as he has failed to do so so far then its hard seeing him win. Experience counts and Obama just aint up for it just yet IMHO.
Scotty-I fully confess my information came from a number of Repug bloggers. Funnily enough, they didn’t mention the bridge falling down.
Me too Diogenes, and you seem to know more details, and well ahead of the MSM too, so keep us informed, huh?
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Back to the Dem pre-selection race however, I’ve recently caught up with some of my e-mail newsgroups, threads of personal experiences of incidents at Dem caucuses (spinning off from a WISCON site, of all places?!) that are complaining about bullying (in the open caucuses, not the secret ballot ones).
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Just one of dozens of examples, ” I was listening to an NPR report on the Washington Democratic caucus this morning. A reporter who was at a caucus site was reporting that a woman who was speaking for Hillary was heckled by Obama supporters and shouted down with gross sexist comments and locker-room jeers, until she was near tears. Several women left. Her son who was in the military finally spoke up and defended his mother and Hillary. It was only then that the heckling subsided. It’s behavior like this that is making me more and more uncomfortable with Obama supporters, and I can second it, I’ve had to leave the last three Democrat Party fund-raising meetings I went to because of my disgust at their locker-room mentality”.
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On a more general note, many Dems seem to dislike the caucus process in general and have been lobbying to remove them from Dem Party process (again, just one example of many):
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“That said, one of the serious problems with open caucuses in general is that it lends itself to bullying. I’ve been going to caucuses since I was 17, and I’ve never been particularly comfortable with the process; especially once you start moving up through senate district conventions and state conventions, it becomes very easy for people to start throwing sharp elbows and intimidating others. And they do. This isn’t unique to the Obama campaign, it’s part of the caucus process. And it’s another reason it’s a lousy process and I keep trying to lobby through Party channels to have them relegated to history.”
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“Experience” tells us that:
John Howard is the best Prime Minister this country has ever seen, and Rudd is a no experience pretender with ‘me too’ policies.
Rudy Giuliani is the next Republican President of the United States because he’s got the best policies, and has leadership written all over him because of his ‘experience’.
Oh, give me a f&ckin’ break!!!!
Scotty
The governor of Minnesota as Repug mate for McCain
Don’t his state’s bridges fall down ?
that qualifys him for sure….what a great Repug double
Obama will be so worried
85 Diogenes, well I was always a little suspicious about Diana’s death in Paris
Less than 6 kms from a major hospital, the ambulance was 20 minutes late in getting there, and stopped twice on the way back? They sure took their time that night…
88
Diogenes Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:43 pm
Scotty-I fully confess my information came from a number of Repug bloggers
you are forgiven for believing truth from the ‘dark side’
Fair enough i just thought u may remember the bridge from the news in the back of your mind. Its a real laugh to read into some of this stuff. His Lieutenant Governor Carol Molnau is also the Transportation Commissioner. and this is such a great quote.
“Molnau is a controversial transportation commissioner; while she does not have a college degree and said she did not read bridge inspection reports.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carol_Molnau
He did not even do the politically wise thing and blame it all on her and sack her.
Well Glen. I think Obama will win. If he wins these three on Wednesday then Hawaii and Wisconsin as many polls suggest, then this should have a real effect on the Ohio primary. Though you could simply cut the word Obama out and paste the word Clinton in
87
Glen
Glen , presume news bulletins did not reach the Nelson bunker as you helped Horatio with the apology words but
Obama is to be the Democrat Nominee…your man Rudy he’s quit & u got McCain
Meanwhile, in the topsy-turvy world of George W Bush speak:
“the basic fundamentals of the economy are stable” as he signs a cheque for $168bn ( a tad over 1% of GDP, of ‘free’ spending money!),
but:
”the signs are troubling enough” that he felt the tax rebates he worked out with Congress were necessary.
…ah, go figure!
This clown cannot even begin to realise that not only will he go down for the biggest foreign policy disaster of a generation, but he’ll get to see the nation’s economy slide into recession as well.
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot does he do for an encore????????????
Glen: Obama is ahead in pledged delegates. In fact, Real Clear Politics has him ahead on pledged and super delegates.
This is not counting the 3 upcoming primaries, all of which Obama is favourite.
Does that change your analysis?
Glen @ 87
I also do not understand the inexperienced argument. Obama was a state senator for 8 years from 1996 to 2004. Then he of course was the state senator we know today. That is 12 years (over a decade). People make him sound like a 1 term congressman sometimes. His experience from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is also very impressive. as well as having being on other committees. Not that it is a good example but Bush was only governor for 8 years correct?
I’m sorry guys, but catching up with all my Dem Party insider e-mails has been an amazing education for me tonight, here’s one with another common theme:
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“As an Edwards supporter, I am down to my second choice, HRC, and I am happy to support her. And if Obama gets the nomination I will vote for him without hesitation, but then again, I often joke I would rather slit my wrists than vote Republican, but this has been the closest I have come to it in 15 years.
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After this campaign, whomever is the Democratic nominee, I might have to take my 15 years away and write a “Delete My F**g Account” type of letter to the Party.”
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Scotty , no Bush is never a good example to quote when advancing a rationale argument !
This time next week , Obama will be leading the State count 26 to 10
Yes the delegate count will be only slightly Obama’s way ,
but politically I think the political advisers will say to Hillary the imbalance in the State count is fatal for her credibility
KR , Rudy was just not your man ?
A lack of experience KR shows Rudd has given in to left wing academics to apologise to a few thousand children removed from their communities for their safety and well being? Rudd can apologise for those taken for no reason from parents who looked after their children well and were safe within their community. But more aboriginals were saved than harmed by what happened. And there are so few people who can actually prove they were ’stolen’ and many who lied like Lowitja O’Donoghue who was actually abandoned by her father and placed in the care of a missionary-run home for abandoned and sick Aboriginal children.
The only person who owes Lowtija O’Donoghue an apology is her father not the Parliament.
And many other children whose lives were saved owe a debt of thanks to the people who rescued them from mistreatment by aboriginal communities for being half caste. Clearly some small number of cases of forced removal were not necessary and the State Governments have rightly apologised but their was no ’stolen generation’ it is a myth created by Professor Peter Read at most a few thousand children were affected not 100,000 as put forward by Read thus it could hardly be described a generation.
John Herron, in 2000 tabled a report in the Australian Parliament that questioned whether or not there ever actually had been a “Stolen Generation”, on the semantic distinction that as “only 10% of Aboriginal children” has been removed, they did not constitute an entire “generation”. Yet despite this only 1 person out of 100,000 could prove to a court they were ’stolen’ and not for the betterment of the child. Thus it is highly unlikely that 100,000 was the total of removed childen but a far smaller number.
What experience KR that is to cave in and say sorry and declare that they’ll never remove aboriginal children from abusive communities or from parents who dont look after their children which happens to whites atm. Thanks to Rudd more aboriginal children will suffer from his apology than would have otherwise been the case had it not want to reignite the history wars KR.
Also Rudd’s lack of experience has been illustrated where he has invited two separate aboriginal elders to make two separate welcoming ceremonies in Parliament tomorrow and Wednesday because they cant come up with just one tribe. The US tried to exterminate the American Indians and they apologised rightly for their crimes but they never had American Indians welcoming white people to ‘their’ land during a session of Congress.
The trouble with this sorry business is that no body is allowing dissent and anybody who agrees with practical reconciliation not symbolic reconciliation is then called racist or a redneck. The aboriginals dont need an apology to cement in their already sad and depressing existence a permanent history of victimhood that will not serve them any benefit in the future.
Finally all that needs happen is one Liberal MP to vote against the motion and it will not be on behalf of the Parliament and only of the Labor Government. Lota right wing MPs from WA and QLD who dont want a bar of this symbolic reconciliation.
Glen: I’m sure the aborigines are glad to have yourself speak on their behalf. You must be grinding your teeth at the Liberal party including both your leader and next most likely leader wholeheartedly supporting the apology.
Rudd has already done more things to heal this nation in 2 months then Howard did in 10 years.
100
Ron
My post was really in answer to Glen’s wonderful analysis based on the word ‘experience’!
I think you’ll find it was deeply ironic if you go back and read both.
Lol ron i was thinking that as i wrote it. Sad thing is George Bush, Bill Clinton and George Bush are the only presidetns ive seen in my life.
I am starting to see Obama as a reverse Reagan. RR’s basic political strength was his ability to make Americans feel good at about themselves and their country at the same time. He was a great crooner. So great that he honeyed up to post-Vietnam/ post-Nixon/ post-Iran/ post-Oilshock Americans and revoked the New Deal democratic majority.
Obama’s “Yes. We can.” is as evocative and irresistable as Reagan’s “It’s morning in America.” The message is an elixir to all those who feel used, tricked, abused or otherwise dudded, upbraided, reproved, excluded or denied by the nasty, moralising, hypocritical neocon hacks that have come to dominate the theatre that passes for politics in America.
Americans have many susceptibilities. They are not shy about them, and why should they be. They want to trust their governments, identify with their politicians, pursue their material dreams, be openly inspired, celebrate their manifest nobility, pay less tax and talk, talk, talk all about it.
As well, Americans like to invest their Presidents with almost mystical powers, and, some might say, with good reason: there have been some gems among the grit. While there is no need to name these Presidents, Americans – taught to believe that anyone can become POTUS – know that a really great President can transcend the petty, the personal and the cycnical. They have reason to trust in hope, democracy and the possibilties of change.
I think Obama will win everything and could change America. (Or have I been watching too much West Wing?)
I’m actually quite happy at the way Rudd is systemically dismantling Howard’s flawed policies one by one. Unfortunately there are a stack of flawed policies.
Maybe if the current Libs don’t do anything too stupid like maintain their right wing conservative dogma from the Howard days, they may become electable again in a decade or so.
u must be tired…..only said in fun re Rudy
you are too rationale to think highly of Rudy
Asanque we didnt need healing during the 80s and early 90s with Keating and Hawke who never said Sorry so why do we need it now?? Just for Rudd to say he’s done something other than whinge about having a multi billion dollar surplus and having to control inflation at 3% boohoo! All Rudd is going to heal is the back pockets of aboriginals some of whom may see this apology as a chance for a quick buck. This apology is just for aboriginals not for the rest of the country IMHO and fine we lost the election and we tories have to sit here and take it like Marcellus Wallace in Pulp Fiction.
The aboriginals have been apologised by all the States who were responsible for the removals so really since that has occurred i dont see the need for a national apology. My only hope is Rudd doesnt get duped by the left wing academics who have called for a National Sorry Day holiday that would just be a joke.
Rudd can say Sorry, but half of the country doesnt feel sorry for what happened when many more children were saved than stolen. Many aboriginal children should be removed from abusive communities but we’re too gutless to save these kids from such a rotten existence because we’re worried that left wing academics will say we’re ’stealing them’ when if they were white we’d have childrens services over to take them away in a flash what hypocrisy.
My only joy this week on QT will be watching Swan flounder from double broadsides as Nelson and Turnbull sink him for good i almost pity him….nah i dont LOL!
106
asanque , well said
Glen , I hope in time you reflect differently on your #101 blog against an apology
Ron its already been done its just drum beating from Rudd and the left, if all the States have said Sorry and they were responsible why do we need a Federal Sorry?
Lets make a quick list:
1. Ratify Kyoto – tick
2. National apology – tick
3. Haneef case – dismissed – tick
4. Withdrawal from Iraq – Work in progress
5. Dismantle workchoices – Work in progress
6. Review and dismantle citizenship test – Work in progress
Has Australia changed for the worse through this variety of symbolic and worthwhile policies?
Of course not, that was merely the fearmongering of the Howard days.
Was a national apology high on my list of Rudd’s apology. No.
However, it does not harm, no compensation is linked to it, and puts an end to a sorry saga.
Do these items in the above list make Australia a better place?
I argue yes.
and work in progress re laps & high speed internet in the class rooms Asanque
Glen because in Aboriginal culture an ‘elder’ is a revered ‘leader’ and they regard the PM as the number one ‘elder’ of all white Australians
and further , Aboriginal Affairs became seriously a National responsibility at least since the 1967 Referendum
Ron why should two aboriginals be asked to Welcome the Members of Parliament to Canberra once is bad enough, twice just looks pathetic really i mean get with the program he’s been made to look foolish for inviting two people to do it because some aboriginals didnt like who was to do it on Wednesday they complained and now the other tribe gets to do Tuesday what a joke!
Yes but Ron that was after the removals not during and not before thus the apology from Rudd is purely symbolic it means nothing because the States who removed the children have already said Sorry, i guess some Aboriginals like hearing the word a bit too much.
Can the Aboriginals who run the Tent Embassy be given to the count of 10 after 9am Wednesday to leave the lawns of the Old Parliament House now that Rudd’s said Sorry please let it be so!
Clearly – you have not lived in Paris.
I could tell you a lovely little story about a young lady crossing the road just down from my place and across from the local cafe, the unexpected impact of a speeding ambulance sending a woman into a full spin and landing on the road in front of siad ambulance. I could mention that the driver and the assistant did the right thing and delivered effective emergency care, took her over to the cafe and paid for the a short black. I could note that the driver was apologetic, the assistant was all smiles and helping out with total professionalism, the attentiveness and charm of the waiters, and the cheers from the customers as the ambulance departs. But I won’t go into all of that – because you have to live in Paris before you understand Paris.
To sum it up, the right wing conservatives of Howard and Bush had their time in the sun after 2001. 2001 was their time, because right wing conservatives peddle fear, perfect in the post 2001 climate, whereas left wing liberals peddle hope.
The right wing conservatives proceeded to do incalculable damage to the world diplomatically and economically and their greatest flawed legacy is the disastrous illegal foray into Iraq. Countless billions have been wasted in this pointless war, which has increased terrorism worldwide and this money could have been spent on far more worthwhile ventures. This has been compounded with a complete failure to recognise the dangers of climate change.
Only now is the world realising the immense harm that was done due to fear, shortsighted and selfish neoconservative policies.
Its not surprising that the people turned to Rudd and Obama, who have shown an inclination to lead to make this world a better place, not just for this generation but for future generations. Do all actions require a tangible benefit? Let us not be remembered by future generations as the selfish generation.
The right wing conservatives had their chance, and we are reaping the bitter harvest. Unfortunately, both Rudd and likely Obama will be left trying to fix the many mistakes of their predecessors.
Is hope better then fear?
I leave that to you.
Glen , there is not just one aboriginal tribe hence the two representatives
The fundamental flaw in ‘howardism’ was a ‘winner take all’ policy approach linked to the political wedge
so in aboriginal affairs the wedge was ‘no sorry’ it was not our generation and the implication all were taken for their own good and few maybe nil others,
rather than say huge numbers were ALSO forcibly taken for ‘race’ reasons
and to apologise
aborigines were left with no choice but to use a reverse wedge & ignore those taken for their own health care….
all ‘howardism’ supporters have been caught in a wedge of their OWN making
(Hence Nelson’s current problem)
it is semantics to argue over the word ‘ generation’ when clearly an apology is warranted by our National leader for massive numbers of aborigines forcibly taken
Ron there is no evidence of children been taking for being ‘black’ but because half caste children could have been harmed by aboriginal communities and so were removed for their own safety.
There never was a ‘Stolen Generation’, Rudd should simply apologise to those kids removed not for their own safety but removed from loving caring homes these aren’t a whole Generation though. Rudd is caught up in the Left’s aboriginal agenda oh well…
Ron there is no evidence of anything like 100,000 maybe 10,000 but probably 5-10,000 at the most, hardly a Generation! And of that alot were saved than ’stolen’!
115
asanque
Is hope better then fear?
absolutely , which is why voters are flocking to an Obama win:
internationally the ‘right’ have us in
fear of terrorism they have worsened
in fear of nuke Iran an unpredictable enemy
in fear of where the disintergration of Iraq will lead
in fear of making Hamas non entity
in fear that oil is in the hands of US supported Despots
in fear that climate change is before our eyes whilst US Oil Companies support Bush in denial of CC
and domestically
in fear that the wage conditions must be in dividually negotiated with a boss who holds all the cards without any saferty net
in fear that social justice & equity should we individually fall on hard times are
dispensible against the theory of survival of the wealthiest
Glen, two reps is fine for ACT ‘country’ – listen to the ‘Welcome to Country’ openings that are held there, its briefly alluded to in the film ‘Jindabyne’.
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As asanque @ 111 says, it “does no harm” and may well do a lot of good, giving a symbolic starting point as kind of “closure”, from which we can move forward, like the rituals associated with funerals and memorial services, there is no harm in symbolic gestures and can be powerful for healing.
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Raising of the flag on ANZAC Day is a symbolic gesture, the minute’s silence, and all of that pomp & pageantry, is just symbolic meaningless ritual. I was one of the anti-Vietnam war protest generation, and still think that “One Day of the Year” is just silly patriotic jingoism — but for many Aussies, its very important symbolically and metaphorically. I RESPECT that, even if I don’t agree with it. For Vietnam vets to be recognised was a symbolic ritual act, and *important* for those personally affected by it. Whether I supported the govt of the day doing it or not is beside the point, if I thought it meant anything practical or not, is beside the point – I can still give RESPECT in that it was an *important* symbolic act for *them*, after all – it “does no harm”, certainly not to me personally, and I can opt out of participating if I didn’t agree with it.
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To me Glen, I figure you must have little or no RESPECT for others. If many Indigenous (and non-Indigenous) Australians feel they need a national gesture in order to find some measure of closure, and welcome it, and are looking forward to participating in it, even as an observer in Melbourne’s Federation Square, along with Perthites even getting up early to watch it live from their city centre, and so on – *sigh* – I give up, I suggest you try to get over it Glen, find a good book to read, or take the dog for a walk.
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On the superdelegates question – there is an interesting piece by Ted Devine in the new York Times speaking from the 1984 experience on how superdelegates play out. The scenario he paints is something close to what most of us would consider to be the right thing to do – that is that superdelegates move the the nominee with the broadest support for the voting community. Unlike ‘84, superdelegates have been coming out in greater numbers supporting this or that candidate – and for the most part this is what Ted is arguing against in his piece. I guess the bottom line is that these superdelegates for the most part will face the electorate sometime soon and that will be on the top of the list of three things they think about (i.e. facing the public). The other two will be risk analysis on the potential damage from the Clinton machine (what if Clinton wins), and secondly polls on best candidate for a Democrat victory (my role in the party).
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/10/opinion/10devine.html?scp=2&sq=superdelegates+1984&st=nyt
Aparently Bush is not supporting Obama.
Aparently Bush is not supporting Obama.
Am I correct in assuming that we can call this a double-negative-endorsement?
Clinton v. Obama: The Lawsuit
It’s a good read – short and punchy.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120269002843257513.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
davidoff @ 120, thnx for that, its a more potted version of some of the cross-fire gossiping I’ve been trawling through from internal Dem Party conversations tonight.
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I’ve learned a lot of stuff I never knew from all this gossip. Signs of widespread grief amongst the ground-troops over so many super-delegates declaring so early, as mentioned in davidoff’s link. The “deep division” of the Dems in the 1980 election between Carter and Kennedy, (which caused them to lose that election), there are some fears its happening again.
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Some conflict across grass-roots Party activists about the open versus closed status as well, some don’t like the idea that Independents can potentially have such a big say in it. One state used to have closed secret-ballot primaries, but the Republican state legislature pushed it to become an open caucus and have then stacked them with Independents as Republican “plants”.
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Is that sort of thing vaguely akin to what we call “branch-stacking”?
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Bush not supporting Obama? sounds to me like the Repubs desperately want Obama, like the brer rabbit syndrome, oh no, not the briar patch!
asanque 115.
I go for hope, any day. It is my refrain.
Others on this site express the same. We know, as we do, that hope, for all we want, is eventually not as full as we would wish, as changing circumstances make it so.
The now Opposition (Australia, I intend) is continuing its business of dashing hope, ideals, ideas. I suppose they would. After all, they offered nothing resembling hope. Then and now.
Maybe they don’t understand. Not that I care what they do or do not.
I was particularly appalled by Tony Abbott regarding the apology, ‘the more perceptive indigenous’ I cannot quote in full or even if that is exact, but you will get my drift.
Yet, hope exists, it seems to have a short flair, but it is at least to me, wow and ever welcome!
DC, Maryland, and Virginia: 9.2% of the game
While nobody seems interested in polling the District of Colombia (15 bound delegates), we have have the mainstream pool residing in Maryland (70) and Virginia (83). The Obama projections suggest DC will fall his way 58/42 and Maryland polls put Obama ahead of Clinton by 53/35. In the meantime Clinton camp have have been focusing attention on Virginia (last projections at 53/37 for Obama) . All up we have three states on the East Coast and you have to throw into this the fact that Virginia is like real close to Maryland and Maryland is like real close to the District of Columbia and DC is bumping up hard against New Jersey, and that’s just a train ride to downtown New York. Thing is – if Obama sweeps these three states (and on my numbers this is a probably) – we have a scenario where new boundaries are being drawn on the Clinton brand.
Out of the three – Virginia is the one to watch. The Clinton team are putting a lot of effort into this state as a part of a turning-the-tide initiative – but at the same time the Clinton team is in a state of disorganization and blog activity is reflecting clinical depression. But that’s not all – Hawaii and Wisconsin are coming up (19 Feb) and on my calculations suggest both will fall to Obama – leading to a winning streak covering Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Virgin Islands, Maine, DC, Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii and Wisconsin. This is the stuff that creates the ‘Big Mo’ and this has context when we cast a forward eye on Ohio (141 delegates) and Texas (193 delegates and a state where carbon dating is something that mothers explain to teenage daughters), not to mention Pennsylvania with 151 delegates – and keeping in mind that as we speak the immediate delegate count is for all practical purposes neck and neck (i.e. given swings and roundabouts its a free for all).
But what if there is a thumping in the coming couple of days. What if the Obama message has gone beyond the outside chance and what if there is a majority that are thinking ‘yes we can’. What if this election is based on the recognition of the reality of past betrayals by the elected representative, what if its about measure of trust in a transformative figure, about hope, about the question of when the USoA can be better that what it has been? What if a big majority stand up on 12th of February and say they want to be proud to call themselves Americans? Do we dare to hope?
Yes we can.
Yes, we can.
And have.
Glen’s hero, Me-Me Nelson, acts decisively.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/cartoons/
Ron at 100, 4U.
“Scotty , no Bush is never a good example to quote when advancing a rational argument !”
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AsjqqpuqmGmVStYtJJE5I2tX_b4F
New Kid On The Block:
Since he burst out the woodpile, he won’t sit up-back of the bus, he’s cashed-up, he’s uppity, High Darktown’s not good enough for him anymore, he wants to live in a White House, his live schtick is dynamite and he’s wearin’ some kind of perfume that drives all the women crazy!
Beltway……we have a problem.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/uclickcomics/20080207/cx
Trying that last link again.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=A0WTUZbgerBHwa8AiRgHcggF
Damn it! Wrong one. Last try.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/uclickcomics/20080207/cx_bs_uc/bs20080207
Obama’s state experience doesn’t matter when it comes to being thought of as Presidential material – only his federal experience does – and that experience is pretty brief.
#132
Based on a little digging into the records at the Library of Congress (and some digging by someone called rafael)…
During Obama’s first eight months he sponsored over 820 bills. He introduced 233 regarding healthcare reform, 125 on poverty and public assistance, 112 crime fighting bills, 97 economic bills, 60 human rights and anti-discrimination bills, 21 ethics reform bills, 15 gun control, 6 veterans affairs. In his first year in the U.S. Senate, he authored 152 bills and co-sponsored another 427. These included the Coburn-Obama Government Transparency Act of 2006, the Lugar-Obama Nuclear Non-proliferation and Conventional Weapons Threat Reduction Act, the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act, the 2007 Government Ethics Bill, and the Protection Against Excessive Executive Compensation Bill. All up … Obama has written 890 bills and co-sponsored another 1096 since entering the senate.
133
davidoff
All this ‘experience’ stuff is twaddle. The POTUS is selected for character, this is a kind of beauty contest, not a job application, in the usual sense. And from where I sit, there’s a marked edge to Obama on this vital question.
In this, of all years, the yearning for someone who transcends the grime, shows moral courage, and has impeccable credentials to uphold the true liberal values without selling out to vested interests is where the bar is set.
Clinton, for all her fine qualities and experience, just does not inspire in this way, has a lot of baggage and is unpopular with many in way Obama is not. Read the polls, a lot of people of both parties do not like her. On the other hand, Obama’s negatives are considerably lower in those same polls.
And despite what Clinton’s campaign manager says, Obama is still ahead on beating McCain.
Neat little video on http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/#sledgePromo
The Art of Speech with Senators Obama and McCain
“Watch this instructional film on the function of gestures and you too can be a good public speaker. By Hugh Atkin.”
Click the image to play now!
Ramos Horta expected to ‘make a full recovery’
http://news.theage.com.au/ramoshorta-expected-to-fully-recover/20080212-1rn8.html
Oh jeez, Shanahan reports today that Nelson’s grip on leadership is shaky, what a circus, I’ve got money on him being gone by June. It’s almost enough to make you feel SORRY for the Libs (not bloody likely).
KR @ 135, I’m with you, and with blindoptimist @ 105 on this one. Nobody cares about experience or other similar twaddle for POTUS.
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Blindoptimist, I have seen others comment about the strong resemblance of Reagan by Obama, but I think you said it best about Reagan/Obama ” …his ability to make Americans feel good about themselves and their country at the same time. He was a great crooner….. Obama’s “Yes. We can.” is as evocative and irresistable as Reagan’s “It’s morning in America.”
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Maybe thats part of the explanation for the baby-boomer demographic preference for Clinton? An attitude of having been there, done that, bought that T-shirt?
Wanna good send up of Obama’s ‘yes we can’ video, but with mcCain’s endless war mantra?
Classic:
http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/02/11/mccain_video/index.html
138
Rain
It’s a hard call for all the Clinton fans, but I think they’d vote Obama over McCain anytime. Besides, in policy Obama and Clinton aren’t that far apart, but in style and character, well…I think they have clear differences.
139 KR, watched it, now severely depressed, reaching for razor!
More dismantling of the Howard legacy of racism and breach of international human rights.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/pressure-to-overhaul-intervention/2008/02/11/1202578694335.html
However, thinking about how destroyed the Libs are has cheered me up again
121- Davidoff – Great response by Obama
“we tories have to sit here and take it like Marcellus Wallace in Pulp Fiction.”
No you don’t Glen, we have a new government now with a different set of values, no-one has to “take it” anymore, but of course if that is what rings your bell go ahead.
My only hope is ………………. for a National Sorry Day holiday.
I agree, perhaps it could replace the Queens birthday holiday, we won’t need this when we become a republic.
I think the “Ramos-Horta expected to make a full recovery story” is a bit premature. I’m concerned that Royal Darwin Hospital doesn’t have a specialist cardiothoracic surgeon, given that an injury to his right lung is the main problem. Don’t know if they’re up to doing a lobectomy (removal of part of lung) if necessary. There are also many late complications from this kind of injury with infection around the lung which can be difficult to treat. He’s not out of the woods yet.
“Ron there is no evidence of children been taking for being ‘black’ but because half caste children could have been harmed by aboriginal communities and so were removed for their own safety.”
Glen, your ignorance is astounding. Yes, the policy (particularly as practices in WA under RA Neville) was directed at “half-caste” children. But the motive was racist eugenics not humanitarianism. They wanted to “breed the blackness out”. No doubt they also thought they were doing these kids a favour by doing so – by bringing them into “civilisation”, albeit as domestic servants.
KR @ 140, of course the Clinton supporters would, they might whinge and carry on like pork chops about it, but they would do their duty like good Democrats. A few might opt out, but not enough to make a difference.
.
Can’t say the same for Obama supporters if the sitrep is reversed though, they are far more likely to defect or opt out in large numbers.
.
146 Robert Bollard says:
“Glen, your ignorance is astounding.”
No Robert, don’t forget he is a tory, ignorance is par for the course!
why do people get so bothered about Glen?? when he was the mouthpiece for the government he was semi-relevant, now he is totally irrelevant. Hell hath no fury like a Tory scorned…
“The POTUS is selected for character, this is a kind of beauty contest, not a job application, in the usual sense. ”
on Bush snr , Clinton , Bush jnr ???
is the choice this time a candidate who displays judement (Iraq , Israel & Iran)
and who displays a balanced new change direction of fairness & inclusiveness
Blindoptimist @ 105
Good call—you have indeed been watching too much “West Wing”.
Having lived in the USA for 25 years and still visiting nearly every year, I find it to hard to believe that Obama could overcome the might of its military-industrial complex, the oligarchy of its major corporations and the entrenched hatreds among its ethnic and religious groups.
For the past 45 years, America has got the duplicitous, warmongering Presidents that it deserves, with the possible exception of the genuine, but seriously unprepared and undermined, Jimmy Carter who was turfed out for the perfect American phony, Ronald Reagan.
It’s quite likely that Obama is sincere in his desire to improve opportunities for poor and middle class Americans, so why then are poor whites and Latino Democrats sticking with the Clintons, even though they know full well the Clintons are proven liars? Because they would rather be poor and exploited than vote for a biracial leader who makes speeches in cadences sounding like Martin Luther King, which is NOT how their kindly grandfather figure, Ronald Reagan, sounded.
Americans simply do not deserve to get as intelligent, caring and inspirational a President as Obama might have been. All the same, for their sake and the rest of the world’s sake, let’s hope my perceptions of that sad country are way off the mark.
KR- I’ve come across the origin of a phrase you have quoted before in Colossus-The Rise and Fall of the American Empire. It was FDR’s Secretary of State Cordell Hull who referred to Somoza, dictator of Nicaragua saying “He might be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.” There’s a bit of controversy whether he really said it or whether it actually referred to Trujillo, the Dominican dictator.
On the topic of the apology, did anyone hear Warren Truss huffing and puffing about being insulted at not being allowed to formally address the parliament? Amongst the wheezing and the whining, if you listened closely, you could hear the faint tinkle of the penny dropping as he realised the irrelevance he and his Tory cohorts have been consigned to in opposition.
Apology by as many MPs as possible is required. Provided a majority agree that speaks for the Parliament and the people. Coalition realise they are on a hiding to nothing if they oppose. Arguing that administrators had good intentions is of little help. Of course there were people believing they were doing the right thing. But in a society that had by both government and individual actions reduced Aboriginal people to dispossessed and dislocated paupers in their own country it is easy to say “these people need helping and are worse off living in shanty camps in poverty than being wards of the State, adopted out etc”. The Stolen Generations were a stage several stages in Aboriginal dispossession. Ask ourselves why focus on mixed race kids which is predominately what happened (but not only). Guilt about black/white sexual relation? Eugenics? Lots of other reasons.
From day one of colonisation Aboriginal and European people have explained and protested the impacts on indigenous peoples. Minority voices in the European population but always there. And until recent years always a big majority of European Australians looking the other way, confused about solutions, not prepared to see that Aboriginal people need serious resources to have a viable community and retain cultures – not just welfare and assistance of a different and usually alien culture.
Let Truth and Reconciliation be our motto. Some otherwise important people need to take a seat near the rear of the bus and listen carefully.
Stop Thief!-Billary wants Florida and Michigan delegates in.
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=65ed7d1f-b586-40d0-bc4c-48292494d4ef
If Obama had won and needed them many here would back him to complain too!
I’m going to quote this from that article. It sums up what I hate about Billary. Bring on McCain who at least has some common decency and integrity if Billary gets up.
“Democrats need to recognize this potential gambit for what it is: a cynical, selfish hijacking of the democratic process. Clinton would not be laying the groundwork for this ploy unless it was potentially decisive. And the damage to Democrats (and democrats) would be profound. If Clinton is truly willing to trample so many institutions she professes to care about in pursuit of victory, she will have proven her enemies correct.”
Diogenes at 156
This is precisely why I prefer Obama to Clinton.
Its also why many will vote Obama but not vote for Clinton.
The stealing of Michigan delegates is absolute nonsense and morally indefensible.
Notwithstanding Hillary breaking her own pledge as well.
Any candidate who is deceptive with the truth, be it a Democrat like Bill Clinton or a Republican like Karl Rove should be turfed by the electorate (just like Howard).
This paragraph sums it up best.
Glen at 157 – Obama is not Hillary. He would have honoured his pledge.
If not, then he would deserve to be castigated just as much as Hillary.
Those who break pledges and are deceptive with the truth, deserve what they get.
See JWH.
The article also suggests this:
“The way to address this complaint is to schedule new elections so that candidates can advertise, make speeches, organize voters, distribute yard signs–you know, do “democracy,” a concept Clinton seems not to understand. The DNC, if it does decide to redress Clinton’s complaint, needs to do so immediately.”
This indicates that it is possible to schedule new elections, which IMHO would be the best scenario.
161 – It is clearly obvious to all neutral observers that the only fair option at this stage would be relections.
For Clinton to continue to push to simply receive these delegates (especially Michigan where she was the only candidate named) is simply a corruption of democracy.
Glen @ 101-
Thank you for reminding me why it is an absolute joy to see the back of the small-minded, ignorant, fear-peddling war mongerers that ruled this land to such detriment for the past 11 years. You simply have NFI.
I am keeping my children at home tomorrow morning to witness what may well be one of the most significant moments in the social and political modern history of this country.
sorry to get off thread PB’s , but – Honestly!
RE : Clinton’s dirty tricks. Surley this will only create further support for Obama amongst those who are still backing Hillary as a better bet against the Repugs rather than as their preferred personal choice. She is just reinforcing all the arguments against her over Barack.
The ‘New Republic’ article is pro Obama but is it “balanced” ????
Isn’t disenfranchisement of voters for any reason unacceptable ?
2.274 million Democrats DID vote in Michigan & Florida
At THAT time according to both the Polls & political pundits Clinton was going to win both Primarys heavily. I may not like this reality but it is true.
(so its a red herring to mention Obama was not on one ticket & didn’t campaign in the other Primary…he was gonna be a big loser in both anyway)
The Political dynamics have SINCE changed & by March the dynamics would have dratically changed & rescheduled Primarys then are likely to result in a close vote if not an Obama win.
To be frank , Clinton & Obama both agreed to a poor DNC decision
Clinton cause she thought she’d win the Nomination without the 2 States and
Obama cause it was to his advantage to exclude 2 Clinton voting States
Clinton’s argument now that disenfranchisement is unfair is valid
Obama’s argument that the DNC decision was independent is also valid
The problem is the DNC decision may have decided who is the Nominee
So will any solution now be fair to BOTH Candidates ?
No need to apologise, Jen, many of the ‘ignorant’ (myself included) might as well read your perspectives, particularly as to the merits of supporting the Senator from Illinois.
Ron-They both signed pledges to respect the decision. Billary is the one trying to undo yet another bad decision she made. If she wanted them in, she shouldn’t have signed up. I really don’t care what her arguments are now, they are purely self-serving and cynical. She should show some leadership and stick by her own decision, instead of bitching and moaning now that she’s not winning. As has been pointed out, she has just proven that all the reasons people give for hating her are valid.
153
Diogenes
It’s probably one of the most used phrases by Washington to describe it’s various nefarious ‘friends’! No doubt it’s been used more than once!
On a slightyl different tack, but similar theme, I heard a converstion about Charlie Wilson’s War (I think that’s the title), a film about the CIA and Afghanistan, but what struck me was how ‘fundamentalist’ their dread of ‘communists’ was, and how they ended up spending billions supporting bin Laden just because it was a poke in the eye for those ‘commie bastards’.
The biggest irony was that the Russians were trying to overturn the fundamentalist’s taking over the government.
If only they’d just left them alone, how different would the world be now? Think about the sequence of events leading to the Taliban, bin Laden and ultimately 911 and all that has occured as a result of this foolish meddling.
Talk about ‘blowback’! They’re like children making nitroglycerine!
Yes Ron, but who would have won if the primaries where held when the STATES THEMSELVES originally agreed to hold them? That should, surely, be the fair comparison?
I don’t actually know the date they were supposed to be held, but since both states moved the date forward one would have to assume that the original later dates would have been (with the benefit of hindsight) more beneficial for Obama.
I would have to say that if Clinton cannot win a new election her support was pretty transitory and so she has no real claim on the victory.
David ,
I fully acknowledge that there are many on the conservative side of politics who have wanted to see real reconciliation with Indigeneous Australians : most notably Malcolm Fraser. I am not including these people in my derisive comments. But Glen fits the picture.
160
asanque
Exactly, and note that Edwards and Obama both took their names off the ballot in Michigan where they legally could do so.
Clinton did not.
Speaks volumes, very,very loud volumes! LOL
Diogenes , I agree with everything you said
However her bad decision and her attempt now to recant it does not appease my sense the original DNC decision was intended to be a rap over the knuckles to 2 State managements rather than as is now the case a decisive Nominee breaking decision.
I wish to separate Hillary from what is now a perceived unfair situation for both Candidates
Who is advising Hillary???
Surely she has just upped the ante, and increased Obama’s momentum even further with these antics. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot: Game over .
Jen,
No Jen, it is much more childish than mere opposition to reconciliation. Basically, my reading of Glen’s 101 is he opposes to the Apology because “The Left” wan’t it.
Thank goodness many on the Conservative side are agreeing with the apology because they see it as a new beginning and a vehicle to deal with indigenous problems as a united people. Maybe we can get it right this time.
KR-Here’s a nice article from Snopes about the origins of the phrase “He may be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.”
http://message.snopes.com/showthread.php?t=8204
173
Jen
Clinton’s crew are firewalling now, saying that Ohio and Texas must go her way and they’re trying to shore up some backstop postiions if they don’t.
It smells a bit desperate, but that’s exactly what I’ve been predicting, so no suprises from Camp Clinton.
If Obama can ultimately succeed against Clinton and her machine, then the puerile argument that he has not been tested against the Republicans is then quite silly! If he can beat her, he can beat ANY Republican! LOL
On the apology, yes, it’s a huge symbolic break with all the small, miserable, suburban solicitor view of the world that Howard foistered on us.
Good riddance to the mealy mouthed little rodent, and how much fun to see his spawn in opposition, desperately trying to justify their miserable existance.
163
Jen – I wouldn’t bother with that, Rudd has crafted his apology so that every school child will be forced to watch a victory for the Left in the Culture Wars being that it will be shown at 9am tomorrow.
While you are entitled to support an apology others like myself should be just as entitled to not support an apology for every State involved in the forced removals has apologised but more importantly for fear that it will embed victimhood in the psyche of all aboriginals instead of one of defiance, struggle and agency.
It will also further weaken attempts at trying to solve the problems faced by child abuse in Aboriginal Communities as Rudd will pledge never to remove children from Aboriginals thus only the children will suffer from his remarks.
Tomorrow aboriginals get the words and we get to keep the money. We’ve just got to get over this ‘Sorry’ business and get on with practical reconciliation for the good of all aboriginals.
GG,
I’m still trying to count to 10.
I can’t believe the lack of understanding and empathy that some of my fellow countrymen display when they see images and hear stories of what we have done to an entire nation of people since white settlement.
It brings back all those feelings of outrage and shame at the meanspirited approach we have lived with for over a decade.
I cannot begin to understandfhow an aboriginal person must feel when they hear comments such as Glen’s coming from the former leaders of the nation.
I truly hope Rudd’s actions can start to heal some of the insult that has been heaped upon on the injury we have caused.
178
Jen – If the last 11 years were so mean spirited what about the 13 years of Labor before then where there was not a sniff of a Sorry from Hawke or Keating…was that a meanspirited approach???
I’m sorry Jen & Co, I can’t support this view that Clinton is doing anything seriously wrong, Obama’s dirty tricks have been appalling, but he’s getting away with it.
.
165 Ron ” The ‘New Republic’ article is pro Obama but is it “balanced” ????
Isn’t disenfranchisement of voters for any reason unacceptable ?”
.
It was Obama’s faction that worked it in the first place. And show me a MSM site that isn’t pro-Obama? (including both Democrat and Republican leaning) I’ve really had to dig deep to find alternate or independent reporting. During our own election campaign we talked a lot on this site about the MSM and analysing its biases etc – but giving credit where credit is due, the Americans have it all over us in their ability to manipulate MSM and totally squashing independent media. They are the Masters of the Art.
.
Interesting how thoughtful our comments and questioning, we were with our own media reports, but we swallow whatever comes out of the USA as verbatim “truth”?
.
To me, its evidence of a classic textbook Party faction-fight, the more I read about Obama’s dirty tactics since Feb 5, the more I dislike the guy.
.
As one Democrat said “I thought this campaign is supposed to be about *hope* and *change* and transcending the old status quo and not playing politics as usual—but Obama relying on unethical tactics, lies, cheap cracks and snide comments is not hopeful, nor original, nor ethical, nor in any way new or transcendent. It sucks. Same old. Same old.”
.
175
Diogenes
In a shouting match with Bill O’ Reilly, Phil Donahue said about Saddam Hussein what Kristof said about Musharraf: “Saddam was a bastard. But he was OUR bastard, just look at the pictures of Rumsfeld shaking his hand.”
…it’s one of those apocryphal phrases, and it’s sure had plenty of opportunity to get used!
Glen @ 177
“for fear of embedding victimhood in the pyche of all aboriginals”.
Your concern is heart warming indeed, Glen.
After all it’s not as if they have any reason to fell badly done by now, is there?
Prat.
Glen, looks like the next call for an apology will come from the Qld Libs after the Member for Gatton,Ian Rickuss (Nat),go stuck into Flegg during question time in the Qld Parliament this morning. Nothing like a good Lib/Nat brawl in the open on the first day.
Jen all the apology is going to do is install a legacy of victimhood for the aboriginals something that will be detrimental to their wellbeing as Noel Pearson has noted repeatedly. Sure those who suffered and were not saved would feel hard done by and they’ve been apologised quite rightly to by all the States.
Steve, Flegg probably deserved it, anyway Flegg shows why the Liberals are in such a pathetic position in State Queensland politics.
Yes Ron, but who would have won if the primaries where held when the STATES THEMSELVES originally agreed to hold them?
Rates , who knows and that is the problem
The original DNC decision under the management of Howard Dean
(hardly with a rationalpolitical history) of disenchanchising 2 large states I thought was poor and continues to be a ‘fairness’ problem for the WHOLE party
Rain,
i’m curious as to why you have such a negative view of Obama, but as you say, perhaps I’m jusy not hearing the evidence. This could be (and may well be) due to media bias, although I thought the MSM in the US was heavily weighted to the conservatives.
Please` enlighten me as to what he is doing that you find so distatseful- So far he appears to be behaving better than Hillary.
Rain,
Ask yourself this, would Hillary be fighting to get those delegates seated if Obama had won those two states? That’s why people don’t respect her stand in this matter, it’s self-motivated. Whether it’s just politics, or a cheap tactic, it looks like desparation and being a bit of a sore-loser. It’s also a big gamble, Americans generally like winners.
Re 182.
Apologies.
‘Prat’ just slipped out.
Jen,
Glen is a serial loser with his predictions, prognostications and that protruding lip. He is simply trying to wind you up.
Come tomorrow, the Apology will be made with overwhelming support of the Parliament. We then move on to the issues of indigenous health, education and work opportunities as a united nation with (nearly) everyone on the same page.
Unfortunately, Glen will continue to prattle his mean spirited inanities, but I sincerely hope that he too will see the boorishness of his views in time.
Glen, how many ‘Redfern Speeches’ did Howard give?
Speaking of Tony Abbott, very unkind, but picture is hilarious.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23201465-661,00.html
190
wayaway
Touche!
Howard’s Redfern Speech
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyQJUnSZXmk&feature=related
190
wayaway – none, but still Labor were in for 13 years and never apologised, that is my point.
Regarding ABC’s TV coverage of Parliament, it seems they have a 1 hour broadcast from 2pm to 3pm on sitting days, which apparently covers HoR or Senate question time, depending on the day.
However, there also appears to be a broadcast early the following morning (around 12:30 am). Does anyone know whether this is simply a repeat broadcast of the same question time as shown during the day? Or is it a broadcast of the question time from the other house, which was not shown during the day?
Glen,
Given that the stolen generation report was tabled until 1997 i would suggest it would have been difficult for the government to have apologised before then.
Howard sees the writing on the wall
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tjftg2XW_M&feature=related
Oh, that this had not been a fairy story.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ig9l39DAi80&feature=related
Yo ho ho, the ALP were in power for 13 years they had more than enough time for a report and to say Sorry and they didnt yet nobody has criticised them.
Wayaway Howie may not have had a ‘redfern’ but he did make a yell of a speech to Corroboree 2000: ‘Towards Reconciliation’.
Glen, are you seriously trying to favourably compare the Howard government to Hawke/Keating on aboriginal issues?
Oh, and I’ve just reread that ‘Towards Reconciliation’ speech, so, unless you wish to give me a good laugh (which is always appreciated), please don’t bother going down that road…
No but neither Government apologised Wayaway.
Glen,
Watch Parliament tomorrow. Remember, they will be apolgising for you too. Doesn’t that make you feel all warm and fuzzy.
Glen, does this sound like something that could possibly have been performed under the auspices of your side of politics?
I, MICHAEL LAVARCH, Attorney-General of Australia, HAVING REGARD TO the Australian Government’s human rights, social justice and access and equity policies in pursuance of section 11(1)(e), (j), and (k) of the Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission Act 1986, HEREBY REVOKE THE REQUEST MADE ON 11 MAY 1995 AND NOW REQUEST the Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission to inquire into and report on the following matters:
To:
(a) trace the past laws, practices and policies which resulted in the separation of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children from their families by compulsion, duress or undue influence, and the effects of those laws, practices and policies;
(b) examine the adequacy of and the need for any changes in current laws, practices and policies relating to services and procedures currently available to those Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples who were affected by the separation under compulsion, duress or undue influence of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children from their families, including but not limited to current laws, practices and policies relating to access to individual and family records and to other forms of assistance towards locating and reunifying families;
(c) examine the principles relevant to determining the justification for compensation for persons or communities affected by such separations;
(d) examine current laws, practices and policies with respect to the placement and care of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children and advise on any changes required taking into account the principle of self-determination by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.
IN PERFORMING its functions in relation to the reference, the Commission is to consult widely among the Australian community, in particular with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, with relevant non-government organisations and with relevant Federal, State and Territory authorities and if appropriate may consider and report on the relevant laws, practices and policies of any other country.
THE COMMISSION IS REQUIRED to report no later than December 1996.
Dated 2 August 1995
MICHAEL LAVARCH
Can’t effing believe it! Rudd, Gillard and company are on the RHS of the Speaker. Go you good thing.
Rain
I give your posts very little merit.
The reason being, you use highly emotive arguments and do not back up your arguments with facts.
What exactly are these ‘dirty tactics’ Obama is using?
Your analysis appears biased unless you provide substantiation to your posts.
We are not privy to your so-called insider Democrats, so humour us.
The apology, if nothing else, is revealing much about the raucous aristarchs.
The tactic of bogging the discussion down in deceptive minutiae (it wasn’t a generation – we were doing them a favour – the children were being abused – some have had careers which could never have happened otherwise – they were saved…) is a well known political tactic when a position which can’t possibly be supported, by argument or morality, is defended. And even here, at this late stage, it is still happening.
Get this, you lot – the children were taken away because of their colour. THEIR COLOUR. Nothing else.
No prizes for guessing which word beginning with R would best describe these sophists.
I’ve had a good look (obviously not exhaustive though) for evidence of Obama dirty tricks. The “evidence” falls into three categories.
1. Billary getting upset when Obama’s team points out her odious tactics. Evidently you can’t do that to her.
2. Stuff coming from nutjob anti-female Billary haters who have nothing to do with Obama or his team.
3. A very serious allegation that Obama encouraged Barbra Streisand to endorse Billary. Now this one would be absolutely despicable if true. I can think of no lower act than to stick Babs’ endorsement on a candidate but it’s denied by Obama’s team as follows:
Barack Obama supporters say that he’s just not capable of such tactics.
“Senator Obama had nothing to do with Barbra Streisand’s endorsement of Hillary Clinton. He didn’t talk her into it,” said campaign advisor Ed Senheis. “Admittedly, it’s a tough blow to take and it couldn’t happen to a nicer person, but it didn’t come from this organization. To suggest it did is simply more misdirection by the Clinton Machine… more politics as usual.”
Oh Dear, wavering Superdelegates and donors.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/11/some-top-clinton-backers-_n_86028.html
Obama interview
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8457.html
Clinton interview
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8453.html
Good reads to give you an insight into the personality of the candidates.
Jen @ 186 – depends how its worded, and how its taken in or out of context, and we all have our own biases in how we perceive the messages, whats important, and what is a non-issue. Most of what I’ve been reading the last few days, has been from internal Democratic Party sources mostly.
.
He’s in there to win, by fair means or foul, just nobody is reporting the foul means, under the radar, wouldn’t go with the “image”, and nobody will believe it anyway now so many neo-cons have come out to support him as their Republican “darling”. Election by media, his foul means are ignored, her foul means are beat up out of proportion, her fair means are ignored or trashed by media spin.
.
But just some examples, which may be non-issues to most supporters, but they go against my personal ethics, Its like the Worm during the Howard debates, my own is going down as time goes on. eg his dealings with the Nevada MSM prior to its caucus to spin-doctor Bill Clinton and Terrys visit to Vegas, his publicly laughing along with the Shuster incident, along with his wife Michelle over the Chelsea interview, the “claws” and “tea-party” comments, (which are gaining momentum along with his campaign, when you’re on a good thing, stick to it?) his public put-downs of LGBT groups joking about HIV/AIDS, (I thought Dems were supposed to care about civil rights for minorities?) and strangely — so many, many of the neo-cons suddenly finding him their Republican “darling”, stacking opens with Independents a kind of branch-stacking, along with hundreds of reports of bullying at open caucuses (which some states Dem Partys are taking consideration of as breaches of caucus rules in some precincts, but my impression from their comments is that it will be unlikely to go anywhere).
.
Some of the colurful rhetoric has been quite witty though, such as the Dem contest being reduced to the level of reality-TV subtle back-stabbing ‘Survivor’ Rules.
.
Then there’s the ugly mailers Obamas campaigners sent out, scare-mongering about Hilary’s health care plan policy. this must be what he meant by the “politics of hope.” Obama’s on the same old scare-mongering lies and attack politics?
.
He’s said he doesn’t know which Clinton he’s running against, Ha-Ha, joke, joke -even though his own wife campaigns for him without causing him to wonder who’s going to be President if he wins – Duh. I haven’t heard him apologize. He hasn’t quietly stopped the behavior without apologizing. Clinton did and has stopped. He hasn’t even made vague “mistakes were made” noises. Clintons have and stopped weeks ago. Obama is escalating it for all its worth, with continuing the Shuster and Chelsea attacks. Nor does he feel it’s important to be sure his own supporters respect everyone’s civil rights, with the increasing reports of bullying tactics.
.
Obama has back-tracked and double-dealt on issues, just as much as any other pollie. Like promising the coal industry subsidies for liquefied coal fuel. If that sounds like something Bush would do, it is. Then when so many industry reps and Republicans started falling all over him, he had to back-track and compromise, but not by much.
.
Iraq. This is a biggie. Clinton had been a major disappointment. But then *everybody* had been major disappointments. She was very far from alone. But Obama pointed out that he’d always been strong against the war, and that definitely spoke volumes to the masses …. Except that he didn’t. Once he was actually in Congress and in a position to act on his words, he didn’t. He sat on the back benches and played it safe. And then he used one vote out of dozens to pretend that there was some huge difference between him and Clinton (and most of the rest of the Democrat Party I might add). This is getting into truth-shading territory, and switches my ethics meters.
.
He plays the same political games as the rest. It is not change, it is not hope, it is just plain simple opportunism, he has a good hand and he’s playing it.
.
I know it has been said before, but how good is it to see Labor on the Government benches, and the poor old Keystone Kops party led by Horatio and Madame Lash, looking very irrelevant and forlorn.
Hi rain
keep up those posts.I like your insights and unlike others you dont waste bandwidth with nut job ramblings.
As I suspected Rain.
Your post at 211 was a mishmash of half truths, conspiracy theories and poor formatting.
Its hardly worthwhile rebutting your posts in that format.
Suffice to say briefly:
1. I’m not going to rebut propaganda with no links to any substantive source.
2. Independents and Republicans liking Obama is not a dirty tactic.
3. Jokes aren’t a dirty tactic.
4. I refer you to the interviews posted above, and let you again judge which candidate specialises in personal attacks and which was more gracious.
5. I haven’t heard about the false mailouts from Obama, but I have heard about the false mailouts by Hillary regarding Obama’s stance on abortion.
6. Obama is not MSNBC.
7. Iraq – Obama opposed it before the invasion, Hillary didn’t. Obama supported continued funding the troops whilst in Iraq already – that is not a contradiction.
It does appear that your posts are the ones that are biased, as opposed to the mass media.
Here is the link to point 5 above
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20080105/clinton-obama-abortion/
Rain-I find that Ben Smith, who is definitely MSM, is quite pro-Billary, much to the disgust of many of the bloggers at his site.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/
And on Ramos-Horta, more surgery on the right lung gunshot. I hope they can do a lobectomy or pneumonectomy in Darwin.
And Dolly blames Ramos-Horta for getting himself shot;
Dr Ramos Horta later waived an arrest warrant for Reinado, deciding instead to seek peaceful negotiations with the rebel leader.
Former foreign minister Alexander Downer questioned that tactic. “I’ve always thought that Major Reinado was a pretty dangerous person, very unstable,” he told the ABC.
Is the Huckster about to throw a curve-ball into the McCain Virginia chances. Anybody know what the current odds are?
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4b5bca0f-bbc7-4c45-9f5c-66e668c18b76
Rain @ 211 – [Most of what I’ve been reading the last few days, has been from internal Democratic Party sources mostly.]
Reading some your posts lately – are you related to the Clintons or their campaign? When you first started posting about this you appeared uncommitted either way, but lately you have really nailed your colours to the mast. I’m just wondering – do you have some hidden political agenda? Why otherwise post unsubstantiated scuttlebutt? It can’t be in the interests of balance.
RCP average polls for 12/2
Virginia 55/37
Maryland 55/32
DC No polls
We hear a lot of rhetoric about Obama needing to win a big state. News flash!!! These three states together seat more delegates than Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania. It’s simple arithmetic. A few moderate states adds up to a big one.
It looks like another 15%+ stomping for Clinton tomorrow (again).
Your own Leaders for whatever their reasons Glen WILL vote for the apology
The issue has been decided even by your own party….time to move on
JV @ 218, I think Rain is just having a bit of fun with us, while making a point about some of the attacks which Obama supporters are making on Hillary. It all just goes to prove the point about what a polarising figure she is IMHO.
“It’s simple arithmetic”
Clearly it is not for the Clinton strategists.
They advised Hillary to organize & run the big States , thinking the Nominee was in the bag.
Not sure if that is poor numeracy , poor politics or arrogance ….or all 3
Irrespective by end of month ,
even Hillarys mathematicans cad add up 37 States & find fatally she has one 10
What I find rather ironic is that Hillary Clinton claim she can better weather the attacks against her from the Republican machine, yet has consistently complained against so called media bias and criticism by fellow democrats throughout the democratic primaries.
Newsflash Hillary, it doesn’t get any easier from here.
#211 – Rain, Rain, don’t go away. Nominating Obama by the Dems to me is like snatching defeat from the jaw of victory. They are not yet ready to elect a Black President. The conservatives, such as the Faknews, are cheering for Obama, that should tell you something.
So far, Obama has had a dream run. He has not been put under any pressure at all. Just wait when they put the blow-torch on him. He will melt. Whereas, Hillary has been through and still standing.
Delegates to win
DC 2/12 P 15
Maryland 2/12 P 70
Virginia 2/12 P 83
Ohio 3/4 P 141
Texas 3/4 P 193
Penn. 4/22 P 158
TurningWorm @ 221 – A bit of fun? Maybe, but if Rain would just work some more on the delivery, and also the material, and the length, then there might be more laughs!
I’m sure it’s not you Rain, but I sometimes have an image of young diehard apparatchiks from the various candidates’ teams sitting in the bowels of a rented campaign building in a US city trawling the political net blogs and answering the critics, (even on Aussie blogs) seeing they can be read anywhere and are gaining in influence. Is that a bit paranoid? I’ll take another pill.
Yes JV, time for meds I think, and put on the alfoil hat as well, you just never know
The Finnigans at 224
I suggest you read this article
“Is Obama tough enough?”
http://nymag.com/news/politics/powergrid/43882/
Also bear in mind the Democrats are thrashing the Republicans in numbers that have turned up to the primaries. And Obama is current hot favourite for Presidency.
And from Obama himself:
I hope this debunks all your future arguments.
Another poll is up on the Virginia race (and remember this one is the one Hillary needs to do well in to head of the upstart). SurveyUSA is projecting a 60/38 split in Virginia for Obama.
http://www.pollster.com/08-VA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
Also out from SurveyUSA is a poll in Maryland projecting a 55/32 for Obama.
http://www.pollster.com/08-MD-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
In both cases we are seeing a consistent trend of undecided voters moving over to the Obama camp and polls close in on the final days. What is also interesting is the recent trend for voters to switch over to Obama on the actual day.
Rain -
Having read your reasons (tahnks for that) but I still don’t really understand your support fro Hillary over Obama seeing as I think she stacks up worse on the issues you have raised. Clearly we both want to see a republican defeat, and whoever gets the nomination I hope wins, but at this point I still, despite your arguments see Obama as a more worthy contestant.
Would it be fair to suggest that you are a rusted-on Hillary supporter?
I defintely assumed and hoped, that she would win, but am now far more impressed with Obama and have changed my preference.
Not that it matters a damn, given that I can’t vote.
Can you?
Basil @ 227 –
Can’t put on the alfoil hat unfortunately because it interferes with the frequency from my cranium plate – and then the voices would be angry …
Jen @ 230 – Good question to finish – welcome to Conspiracy World!
So Rain, are you now, or have you ever been … a registered US voter?
In concerning news from the front, Andrew Landeryou provides compelling questions about the judgement of Obama.
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2008/02/enemies-within-barack-obama-campaigners.html
232 -
Thanks GG.
That’s done it for me. Go McCain.
Hey jen et al, I wouldn’t say I was rusted on, or part of the ‘Clinton Machine’ LOL (but I do have a lot of family/friends etc living in the USA, I am also on several work e-lists and newsgroups etc, which being dominated by yanks have become dominated by topics on their primaries of late).
) then you might like to check out this commentary site:
.
Flat text is an unfortunate medium for communication, as there is no body language to moderate the meaning, and perhaps my peculiar word choices & grammar trigger different reactions in different people. Sometimes its the reader’s assumptions, not the writer’s intent.
.
Bottom line, I dont care that much about US elections etc, (not as much as I was desperate with the Oz ones last year) I’m just keenly interested, curious, just like many here are, I guess – (I also watch Battlestar Galactica with similar fervour and passion) — so, I’m not going to lose sleep over it, whatever happens, though I might get a little distressed with a McCain win.
.
First up back in early Jan, my early scannings to inform myself was up there for Edwards, especially after the 3-way Democrat TV debate. He dropped out, and of the remaining I didn’t have much druthers, both equally blahh, boring, same old, to me – but have watched how its panned out in the weeks since, and so yeh, if I was to have a vote, it would be for Clinton now. Not that I think Clinton is anything so wonderful to write home about mind you – dont get me wrong on that – just Obama has continued to slowly sink, little by little, on my personal opinion meter as time has gone on, leaving Clinton behind as the only one left. Unfortunately.
.
As for those clamouring for “facts”, I dont see that many here?? lots of conjecture, opinions (heated, and not so heated, emotive and not so emotive), speculation, insights, comments, what ifs, and all sorts of 2-cents worth, (and plenty of YES. WE. CAN.), and re-posting a lot of pro-Obama MSM quotes, and some freakingly good analysis (especially on the stats) from time to time.
.
But if you want some facts, from alternative perspectives, that quote/link directly from public domain US govt sites for example, as well as other less well-known US media sources, that you are welcome to verify,
(I’ve done some of them myself – but I’m not *THAT* keen to detail every single one
.
http://www.politidose.com/search?updated-min=2008-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-08%3A00&updated-max=2009-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-08%3A00&max-results=50
.
Plenty of facts, links, and pointers to other sources of facts, there to keep you going, if you follow the threads through from say, early January to today?
(Also has some interesting vids of primary campaign ads released prior to Feb 5)
.
oh… and *huggles* to those who do like my posts *sniff*.. didn’t see you on my first pass.. I figure if I’m not getting responses like Glen gets, I must be doin OK..
232
Greeensborough Growler
Oh dear! Is that a serious article or comic relief?
How many people would have any idea that the iconic figure of Che (and usually in ‘that’ photo!) was anything but a young idealist in search of utopia?
I’ve seen some desperate journalism in my day, but purlease, that’s infantile!
Anyone who put up that poster probably knows nothing about the historical figure nor the historical facts, so going on a diatribe about Che is hardly the point. Suggesting that Obama has revolutionary forces, ready to execute the opposition on the strength of one poster is laughable nonsense.
Funny, though.
#232 – GG – as I have predicted the “swift-boating’ has started, although this is just a mild “paddle boating”. It will get nastier.
Rain: Linking a pro-Hillary blog site has no more credibility then linking a pro-obama blog site.
I will review the material on that page further at a later stage, but on a cursory glance, it appears to be a classic ‘all accusations’ and ‘no facts’ type of partisan blog.
KR,
You obviosly have bought the hagiography about Che. The fact remains as to why Obama’s staff had that photo prominently displayed in his office.
A worrying sign for the Obama bandwagon.
Rain -
fair call. Let’s just hope either one of them trounces the dreadful incumbents.
KR-
I am assuming the borough man was jesting. Didn’t we all have Che posters in the 70’s? Along with psychadelic Hendrix.
(Hope I don’t get arrested under the anti-terrorism laws. Wouldn’t have dared admit it under Howard.)
I was listening to triple j on the sorry thing. I heard two interesting things.
1. They had a tape of the Rodent actually saying sorry to the stolen generation in much the same words as Rudd but it was not said in parliament. It was in 1997 at the Reconciliation Council or something like that.
2. Andrew Bolt was on (first time ever) and claimed that when you really looked at the evidence in each “stolen” case, that he had only been able to find about ten that were definitely stolen. What is the evidence, in hard terms, for the number of truly “stolen” children? Before everyone lynches me, I am not saying he is right, I would really like to know as the reporter on triple j couldn’t nail him and they’re usually pretty good with rebuttals to crap arguments.
Here is the wording of Sorry for tomorrow.
Liberals better hope Obama does not win. I’m sure he will not forget what was said by howard
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4sNQegNssI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygD4zWYzKVc
Further on the Che image:
If you check the video on Fox, there’s this note:
The office featured in this video is funded by volunteers of the Barack Obama Campaign and is not an official headquarters for his campaign.
…and some young women, who don’t look like murdering revolutionaries to me, are there with a Che poster in the background. OK, it’s in poor taste considering the Latino implications, but that’s about all one could say about it. I”m sure they think it’s somehow ‘cool’ and symbolizes their ’struggle’, and would be horrified if they actually knew any better.
239
Greeensborough Growler
Ah, how do you figure that? I haven’t bought ‘anything’ and you clearly did not read what I said.
Now, go back and try again and I’ll give you extra points for English comprehension if you can get it right this time! LOL
240
jen
Nah, jen, I had Beethoven, who looked even madder than Karl Marx, and sure as hell upset the folks (probably the real point LOL)
KR,
As the official all singing, all dancing you beaut, beware of substitute leader of the Poll Bludger Official Obama cheersquad,……… You would say that!
re Che poster
lets be alittle careful of ANY anti Hillay or anti Obama material until its verified
lets give Obama the benefit of the doubt
If the roles were reversed on Hillary re the Che poster we’d say the same ?
Jen , surely you jest re MCain..you are a fully fledged officer on the Obama ship?
GG
careful kr might get upset -people in glass houses and all that
Ron,
There is no doubt! Doubt is for those desperately going for the cover up. It was on Landeryou’s blog, so it must be true.
Gusface,
People in glass house should not dress in the nude. KR please note.
246
Greeensborough Growler
Oh, so you’ve read it again have you?
So I didn’t actually endorse some hagiography?
So I didn’t actually say about some volunteer Obama supporters:
“The fact remains as to why Obama’s staff had that photo prominently displayed in his office.
A worrying sign for the Obama bandwagon.”
So, tell me again, who whipped up the silly story in the first place?
Check your facts, read things properly, and then answer.
I would say that, wouldn’t I? LOL
In plain English, again, especially for GG, who seems to have problems understanding the meaning:
If you check the video on Fox, there’s this note:
The office featured in this video is funded by volunteers of the Barack Obama Campaign and is not an official headquarters for his campaign.
…go and look for yourself, I did!
Or do you hate it when the facts get in the way of your hysterical posts?
Effing hell, if one poster of one long dead Che is creating such havoc and consternation. Can you imagine what would happen if some relative of Obama in Kenya is accused of an alleged terrorism link.
I told you so, I told you so.
Does anyone else notice, that when under pressure, KR goes the punch, his blogs get longer and longer and looks for some esoteric sideline to avoid the realisation that his preferred candidate has a few skeletons clanging around.
I haven’t.
254
Greeensborough Growler
hang about there GG, you just mad an ass of yourself and tried to slag me in the process.
Not related to that ESJ by any chance?
I’ve got no grudge with you, but try that crap on and I’ll give it right back.
So, asking for supporters now are you?
Sounds like you can’t stick up for yourself.
#254 – GG – I did ask KR one time whether he got a life. He reassured me that he did, not just skeleton.
One moment there GG:
Does anyone else notice, that when under pressure, KR goes the punch, his blogs get longer and longer and looks for some esoteric sideline to avoid the realisation that his preferred candidate has a few skeletons clanging around.
I haven’t.
…you come on with some absolute hysterical nonsense bit of crappola from some blogger, you don’t even bother to check the primary source, then you claim it’s Obama’s office, and then you’ve got the audacity to accuse me of ’some esoteric sideline’
You take the friggin’ cake for talking out your behind!
Wow, an offensive flag in a volunteer’s campaign office? That’s even worse than an offensive flag on top, or out the front, of the South Carolina State House! Oh wait, maybe it isn’t…
Rain, I’m sorry, I’ve gotta agree with Asanque. That blog is pretty heavily partisan.
256
The Finnigans
Looks to me like someone wants to assume the mantle of ESJ, toss out rubbish and then hurl abuse if you get caught doing it.
Funny, but I thought it was so civil and entertaining here since the last serial abuser left, but there’s always one ready to take on the role.
Ho hum….
258
Al
Hahahahaaaaaa!
Touche!
Conferderate flag, now that wouldn’t have any implications flying over the official biulding, now would it?
(Of course, they don’t know what it means! LOL)
KR – You are missing the point totally. It does not matter whether the mud they are throwing at Obama is true or not. It does not matter a bit. It is enough that they are throwing and it will hurt Obama big time. I told you so. Don’t forget, I am on your side.
KR,
Goodness me, Hysteria is you.
You are so full of yourself, you are coming out the other side.
There are two postings on this site with over a thousand contributions. Why don’t you run your bullshitorometer to see how may are yours. (Personal guess 750).
Someone introduces an alternative paradigm to the discussion and you are out of control. You really need to get over your self.
Ron.
Tongue is formly planted in cheek.
GG I was assuming the same with the Che thing.
Rain
I’ve now had an opportunity to review that blog.
One thing – at least its very anti-republican which I can sympathise with.
It raises many issues on media bias.
However, I note this piece which was never corrected.
Obama has since agreed to two debates. One in Ohio, one in Texas. I didn’t see an update on this post.
Another post on media bias
Whilst slightly misleading, this mailer appears to be true.
The balance of that post simply has no links or facts to back it up.
And most of the rest of that blog (which is really really long!) has many Hillary endorsements and some articles.
KR ..could also be some underemployed Lib staffer venting some spleen!!
Agh, but all that fades into insignificance after watching the opening of Parliament today………..what a moving occasion it was. Admit to a tear in my eye after reading the ’sorry’ statement and seeing that wonderful statesman Fred Chaney interviewed by Kez this evening. He and Pedro Georgiou are my ideal Libs proving it is possible to be tory and have a heart.
Makes this new Australian proud!!
262
Greeensborough Growler
“Someone introduces an alternative paradigm ”
nup, you post some ridiculous beat up story, don’t check the basic facts, and draw a stupid conclusion.
All I did was point out you error, and then you, buster, went for the full throttle insults.
Now, tell me who’s ‘out of control’?
Go on, tell me again?
265
Megan
Yep, great day, and it sure as hell has put the light back on the hill, ah, so to speak!
KR,
People in glass houses shouldn’t!
Have you checked how many posts?
You seem extremely agitated.
I stuffed up my last post by not including the link, so I’ll repeat it.
Andrew Bolt was on triple j (first time ever) and claimed that when you really looked at the evidence in each “stolen generation” case, that he had only been able to find about ten that were definitely stolen. What is the evidence, in hard terms, for the number of truly “stolen” children? Before everyone lynches me, I am not saying he is right, I would really like to know as the reporter on triple j couldn’t nail him and they’re usually pretty good with rebuttals to crap arguments.
http://news.smh.com.au/parliament-to-say-sorry-for-loss/20080212-1rmu.html
BTW I had prints by MC Escher and the Imaginary Prison sequence by Piranesi on my wall. I’m not ashamed to be a dork!
GG
i came to a similair conclusion ealier,and like that nutjob nostils posts, i simply now ignore em,makes reading the blogs real quick
“empty vessels make the most noise” LOL
Thinking about the Republican race (something that no one seems to be commenting on here), can anyone here explain how Huckabee has managed to close 21% in the polls in Virginia in just 3 days?
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f37ee2e5-11bf-4587-abfd-727426356f37
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4b5bca0f-bbc7-4c45-9f5c-66e668c18b76
And how does a Huckabee win in Virginia (which is winner-takes-all) affect the GOP nomination race?
Obama said: “We are the ones we’ve been waiting for, we are the change that we seek”. Hmmm, if this is not a messiah complex, then Kumbaya My Lord, Kumbaya.
268
Greeensborough Growler
I’m only ‘agitated’ by people who abuse others gratuitiously, which if you go back and check, you’ve just been doing.
How many posts I make is my business. Go and have a look on some other threads, there are some that have a lot of one or two posters, that is their perogative.
Funny, but most people either ignore my posts (I recommend that, if they bother you!), or engage with their opionions.
The one’s I don’t like are unsolicited attacks. If you’ve got a problem about my posts, then that’s your problem, don’t lay it on me.
270
gusface
oh, yeah, mr ‘orifice’ has spoken again! (I don’t forget little tag along snot chuckers who only ever hide behind the big boys! LOL)
You could try growing up too, your silly post is infantile.
271
Swing Lowe
Hcuk (Reg. Trade Mark) has got big Mo!
I think Kansas gave him a bump and the McCain haters have got nowhere else to go (OK Ron Paul is just too freaky, even for them! LOL)
KR,
I read 273 and had a tear in my eye.
I’m only ‘agitated’ by people who abuse others gratuitiously, which if you go back and check, you’ve just been doing.
I then read 274. You are a wanker!
oh, yeah, mr ‘orifice’ has spoken again! (I don’t forget little tag along snot chuckers who only ever hide behind the big boys! LOL)
You could try growing up too, your silly post is infantile.
272
The Finnigans
Kumbaya indeed! It’s got a quasi-relgious feel, it’s got JFK and MLK and youtube all rolled into one.
Makes Hillary look so, oh, whitebread, doesn’t it? LOL
276
Greeensborough Growler
Ah, except for one VERY important point GG:
gusface once told me that I’m talking out of my ‘orifice’!
Now, let’s be frank, that’s infantile, and so is hiding behind your silly posts and chucking snot, which is exactly what he’s doing.
So you’ve got a team now? You and big brave gusface who only ever comes out and chucks when the big boy does it first?
Go away and grow up, the two of you.
By the way GG, I’m stil waiting for your comment about the Obama ‘office’ and what that Che poster really means to his campaign.
Or have you decided that you were wrong, but don’t want anyone to notice? LOL
KR,
1. Gus face is not Frank
2. Gusface tells no lies.
3. Great conspiracy theory is us.
Obama’s office needs to answer for their misjudgements, not any one else.
So KR – It’s OK for Obama to bring religion into his campaign yet we rile at Huckleberry for bringing religion into his. A double standard we had to have?
Swing Lowe,
In the long term, what happened in Washington State is more important for the relationship between Huckabee/theocons and McCain and the tattered remnants of the ‘regular Republicans’.
Essentially, very serious questions exist over whether the votes were counted properly in their recent primary. Or indeed whether the votes were counted at all.
Here is the Huckabee campaign’s recent letter
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/images/2008-02-11_huck_rollins_letter_wsrp.jpg
Now, if Huckabee thinks that election was stolen and they arent being given a fair shake by the Regular Republicans, then they will presumably be less enthusiastic to turn out, vote etc etc
“BUMFIGHTS!!!…BUMFIGHTS…GET YER OFFICIAL BUMFIGHTS POPCORN HERE”
263
jen Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Ron.
Tongue is formly planted in cheek.
GG I was assuming the same with the Che thing.
Well we are happy sailors here on the ship Jen
Is anyone saying Obama would endorse the Che poster …think not
so its either a setup or Fox News so “fair & balanced”
or a very naive Obama volunteer
careful finnigans-he might go you as well
ps i think kr’s tin foil has sprung a leak
pps “snot chucker” pot..kettle…black
280
The Finnigans
Ah, nup, Obama does not pander to the god bothers with folksy down on the farm quotes from the good book for every talking point.
What I said was it’s quasi-religious. In fact Obama has the kind of magnetism that begets (ah, good old testament word!) a cult like following. He’s the ‘real deal’ in that respect, whereas Hcuk’s just another TV evangelist spruiker.
Is it clever politics? Well, proof of the pudding, as they say. Will it carry him to success? Maybe. Have I got money on him? Yep. And McCain.
So I actually put my money where my mouth is, unlike some little snot chuckers! LOL
During the last Federal election here, many of us suspected that the great ‘economic numbers’ were just the tip, and not the iceberg, at least not the one that was headed towards us, quietly in the dark economic oceans of subprime catastrophe and lurking inflation. And yet, despite the uneasy feeling that wresting the treasury benches would be a little bit like taking the wheel of the Titanic, we still wanted desperately to be rid of the Rodent’s dreary grey decade of wedge politics and squalid uncultured wars.
In many ways, our little electoral pond is a small reflection of the US, and the same tectonic movements are in play, but on a much, much bigger scale. Like us, they’re sick of the inept and dissembling administration, bungling and lying its way through gross mismanagement of so many things from Katrina to Iraq and dismantling the constitutional rights in the name of the ‘war on terror’. But also like us, the economic situation is not good, the underlying problems are surfacing quickly to expose a massive iceberg about to rip into the side of their ship.
Up on the bridge, the two leading Democrat contenders are armwrestling each other for the wheel, and it’s a fight to the death and then with seconds ticking, the winner must change course, miss the economic iceberg, then sail through the storms of the Middle East debacle before they can even begin to feel safely free of the challenges looming over them.
But like here, we know the challenges, and we like the sudden veering of course that Rudd has taken us on, and as we move away from the previous course we do feel uplifted and do feel optimistic enough to face the big challenges we know are just over the horizon. I suspect America will do the same, but whoever gets their hands on the wheel, it will be a mighty big job, and it’s going to take a lot of the nation to feel good about the change of direction. Whoever takes charge will need their goodwill.
I sincerely wish them luck.
mate @ 282,
I’ve got the “Fantails” franchise all stitched. They have KR’s postings on the wrapper and you have to buy 25 boxes to get the whole set.
#284 – Gusface – Only for the good of Obama. The good they die young. Like I said before, he is a naughty boy, because it should be lady first.
Is this a blog or a bar room brawl?
I’ll come back later.
Greeensborough Growler 287
LMFAO
“I’ve got the “Fantails” franchise all stitched. They have KR’s postings on the wrapper and you have to buy 25 boxes to get the whole set.”
Fantails would have to be the size of a shoe box to fit one KR’s posts on it, you wouldn’t need to eat anything else for a week.
Think I might snap up the carry bag francise for the shoe box size fantail.
287
Greeensborough Growler
So, you haven’t bothered to correct your posts about Obama’s campaign and some nonsense story about a poster on the wall?
Oh, but you’ve made up a really clever insult about me, oh, look, isnt’ that clever how you actually avoid your silly mistakes and insults and go on doing the same silly thing.
Boy, where do your posts end up? On a toilet roll?
You take the cake, the same as ESJ, all p!ss and wind, signiflying nothing but your own ignorance.
I always thought this country of mine has no soul. I think we have found our soul. The heritage of our indigenous comrades is our soul. I saw that today and I hope to see it again tomorrow.
KR,
There is nothing to correct. Learn to live with alternative points of view.
You are an easy target. Our team calls you Uranium 235 because so little effort creates a big explosion.
Personal abuse while denying you do it. Hypocrite.
The Finnigans @ 293
I have been bouncing around this for days and I think you found the right word.
Tips hat!
jen @ 240 – How do we know you haven’t been arrested by ASIO for the Hendrix poster and they are now forging your posts to lure us into confessing the deepest, darkest secrets of our misspent youth so they can put us in the next cell?
294
Greeensborough Growler
It’s not an ‘alternative point of view’ it was an outright bit of claptrap that came out of your mouth and you are not man enough to admit your mistake, instead you attack me.
So don’t lecture me about ‘hypocricy’, not until you’ve learned how to actually behave.
You and ESJ, eh? Same old story, get caught, turn nasty.
Comrade GG (und uffa’s)
u haf giffen avay ze conspiracy dunderheads
now ze barstitch vill no ve ar all part of ze grand plan to insult and abuse,in ze childish vay,kiwibillybong removedfromrealityville
ps tell mutha to put ze roast in ze offen
gusface@ 298
awww, I had a date with Tom Cruise!
#294 GG – Uranium 235 eh? Yes, my hero Mr. Einstein who came up with this magical formula E=KR2 where E = Ego , while working as a lowly patent clerk in the Swiss Patent office and shunned by the academic establishment. This magical formula definitely changed the world with the big bang at Hiroshima.
gusface,
I’ve just been critcal of Che and you call me comrade.
Why don’t you focus a KR bomb on my house.
Leaders are expenable when you are ambitious, eh?
HHAHAHAHAH It’s so funny!
Half hour ago Joe Hockey just opposed parliament sitting on Fridays. HHHAHAHAAH this is the guy who ran an I.R. system that would cut wages and force people to work on public holidays and weekends, but he can’t even get himself out of bed to go to the House of Reps on Fridays!
The opposition, who held parliament in contempt when in government, are now opposing parliament sitting on Fridays because last year there were 4 question times a week and this year there will be 4 question times a week. Last year there were 3 M.P.I. debates a week, this year there will be 3 M.P.I. debates a week.
Yes, apparently the number 4 is bigger than the number 4 when the Liberals are in government.
Apparently the number 3 is bigger than the number 3 when the Liberals are in government.
The Liberals didn’t mind losing the election, but DON’T ask them to work on Fridays!
Thankfully they will lose this debate, the natural party of government has the numbers!
Showson,
There is apparently a rule that says that Libs don’t work on days that finish with “Y”.
Showson, that is gold. Laziness in opposition is trait of conservatives and it looks like they are preparing for a decade or two in their usual fine style.
comrade mate
ze state ov thumb cwuise’s date iss your pwoblem
comrade GG
und u kan haff ALL ze eiderdown tonite
methinks the rudd spider walked along leaving a thin, almost undetectable trail behind him… seems the fatest fly was the first caught before the web is even finished
MayoFeral-
watch your phone.
Bill, with all of the talk of Australian politics here I think you need to start a new domestic thread so that we can start talking about the US primaries in it.
Well, that makes sense considering it was the first day of the 42nd Australian Parliament!
305, 306, 307
Once upon a time,
There was a person with a false german accent, who was bitten by an undetectable spider with a comunications link to MayoFeral. Darth KR loomed menancingly……………..
In the Republican primary in Virginia tomorrow McCain is $1.10 and Huckster $4.00.
jen @ 307 – No, it’s okay. I fooled ‘em by getting an unlisted number. By the time they figure it out Haneef’s great, great grandson willl be graduating from med school.
“The opposition, who held parliament in contempt when in government, are now opposing parliament sitting on Fridays ”
I seem to remember a senator that would get tanked on his flight home on the Thursday night, meant he could spend Friday recovering and still have the weekend to enjoy. Poor boy will now have to choose between his usual tank session or only having one day of the weekend to enjoy
“#286 KR – good post!
The Leader of the House, Athony Albanese, speculated that Wilson Tuckey didn’t want to stay in Canberra on Fridays because he couldn’t “last that long”.
Hhahahahh Paul Neville just accused Albansese of making “Smart arse remarks”.
Here it is! Hallejujah.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23202612-5013172,00.html
Showson, I thought that the landed gentry were against Friday sittings because it interfered with the cattle mustering on the weekends.
there was movement at the pollbludger, for the word had passed around
that the colt from Che Guevara had got away
And had joined the pub brawl with jen, mayoferal and greeeensborough bound
so all the pollbludgers had gathered to the fray.
All the tried and noted bludgers from terminals near and far
Had mustered at the homebludge overnight,
For the bludgers love hard bludging where the wild pollsters are,
And the regular pollsters always do battle with delight.
There was gusface, who made his pile when Rudd won the cup,
The old man with his heart as pure as snow;
But few could ride beside him when his blood was fairly up—
He would go wherever Che Guevara could go.
And Kirribilli of the Overkill came down to lend a hand,
No better bludger ever held such pain;
For never one could throw him while his teeth were gritted in the sand,
He learnt to bludge while driving in the rain.
And Jen was there, a stripling on a small and weedy beast,
She was something like a racehorse undersized,
With a touch of Timor pony— ummm..forgot how the rest goes …
something about “three parts thoroughbred at least—” or would that be glen?
umm.. clip-clop and blah.. such as are by pollbludgers prized.
Apologies to banjo, and che..
.
The last polls all show Obama to win convincing in Virginia , DC & Maryland
the end is near
ShowsOn : saw wilson on the late news…he seemed overjoyed by proceedings
Intrade projections for the Democratic nominee ..
Obama: 70
Clinton: 30
Phew, bit of a rumble in the jungle here tonight!
New nomination for next Governor General: Fred Cheney, what a thoroughly decent man, have always respected him and even more so after tonight with Red Kez on 7:30, at least there are some Libs with soul.
#322
Yep – someone let the cat in (again).
Davidoff: the markets know that Obama is the winner for the Democrats.
The odds for Democrats to be the winning party has dropped since Obama took the lead as most likely democratic candidate.
#324 asanque – how much of a change?
The democrats had been steady on 1.55 for the last 3 months. They’ve now dropped to 1.49.
Its a small but significant change
Obama is also into 1.44 and Clinton over $3.10 now for Democratic candidate.
Showson @ 315 “The Leader of the House, Athony Albanese, speculated that Wilson Tuckey didn’t want to stay in Canberra on Fridays because he couldn’t “last that long”.
.
Methinx it has to do with the awful Friday Canberra airport commuter shuffle/shuttle/schmozzle, (especially for west aussies who wanna commute home on weekends), but they can stop complaining, Canberra finally got its extra cheap no-frills airline back as of this week…
.
.. but it only goes to Sydney..MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Hi davidoff,
Nice to see you out to play.
Kevin Rudd has released the words of the apology. I’ve posted it at 317.
Do you reckon there are enough facts in it!
USA is Godzone. In most of central and south America Che Guevara has been a pinup for national pride and anti-yankee feelings for decades but in the USA he sends the right wing mad and frothing at the mouth. An outburst of democracy (mostly under GWB who secretly diverted troops to Iraq to give the rest of the Americas a break) results in a majority of these countries with leftist governments. Thank God for GWB! And now Che is rumored to be alive, or at least reborn, somewhere in Texas. Bring on the heart attacks.
#326 thanks
Just did some digging around. The following graphs (and in particular the long term trends) should have Republicans worried.
Democrats win (66):
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=173055&z=1202818288066#
Republican win (34):
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=173054&z=1202818419136#
Asanque @ 324
And that drop in odds is in line with the current head-to-head polls – which have been similar for weeks now – showing Obama with a much better chance of beating McCain than Clinton.
#391 Rain
very clever
re my good friend Jen , the additional words may be:
‘with beauty beyond compare’
and KR will enjoy your ‘poem’ next time he logs in
but I have to say some other comments against KR here tonight are completely
unjustified. He’s passionate & there ain’t enough of that these days
and The Finnegans gee I hope your sense that a black man is not yet electable in the US is misplaced but as for ‘dirt’ to come , yep it’ll come in Repug buckets
as for me, I’m sitting on the champers awaiting ‘opening’ instructions
Wakefield @ 330,
It is worse than that, he is alive on this blog. KR has withdrawn but by golly there are some sympathisers here.
We salute your flagons, sir.
I don’t think the Dem race is over yet. Hillary is marginally ahead now and will – I guess – be behind (say by 100 delegates or so) after March 4.
She then has seven weeks of “clear air” to attack Obama, without those nasty press reports about primary results (Penn is not till April 22 or thereabouts, and the rest are after that).
The money gap is good for Obama but it is not the whole story.
I think Hillary will fight to the bitter end, and I don’t think she is going to see a delegate deficit of 100 when she wakes up on March 5, with over 1,000 (including super-dels) still to be allocated, plus an argument to be made over Florida and Michigan, as the bitter end.
rain@319
pure gold
clarifications
1.notrils@270 refers to the poster known as nostradamus (not snot) btw should read nostrils in orig. post
2.che is actually quite a complex guy and his anti-hero status doesnt resound with (recently) history-no big deal if obama has his poster or not
3.re obama v clinton-in a FAIR race obama would be a shoe -in,but unfortunately the usa (read dem machine) is not ready for a minority president-be they native,latino,black etc (though according to stats minority make up over 60% of usa pop)
4.kr-i honestly dont know who the f gg is (or anyone else on this site for that matter)
335 – Correct Dyno, the race is far from over.
However, discount Florida and Michigan, at best there will be a revote, which will only benefit Obama. Even the worse case scenario only has Hillary gaining about 20 delegates based on proportionality in those 2 states.
It all hinges on Ohio and Texas.
My view is Hillary is doomed.
However for the astute punter, the question is when to hedge your bets.
I jumped on Obama again after Super Tuesday knowing 9 favourable primaries were to come.
I’ve already partially hedged on Hillary and the question is how far will she drift.
In my opinion she will lose the next 5 primaries and drift to about $4.00.
That is when the value will come back into play as Texas and Ohio could do anything.
#335 Dyno
I agree that the scenario you paint is plausible, even probable – but I’m guessing that by March 4th – everyone will know which way the tide is going and your going to see a lot of senior Democrats pushing for a clean solution. It will be case of being between a rock and a hard-place – if she goes forward against the interests of the party she will loose a lot of political capital on the Hill (and I figure this would probably be permanently lost capital). If she folds with grace she can maintain her integrity as New York’s Senator and Bill keeps his reputation and international standing.
331
davidoff Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Just did some digging around. The following graphs (and in particular the long term trends) should have Republicans worried.
Democrats win (66):
Republican win (34):
look at that davidoff , the interesting point was the sharp Democrat rise right on the new year which has contiued ?
GG
Tony Jones interviewed Abbott about the apology on lateline and compensation.
Jones brought up Abbott and Costello’s libel suit and especially Abbotts words in that case that sorry doesn’t mean anything unless you pay. Jones asked Abbott if that meant he was in favour of compensation as well as the apology.
Abbott dogged it and said compensation was Rudd’s problem.
Saw Bronny in parliament, I’m not a polly tragic just thought I’d watch a bit of the new first one, and she said that making parliament sit on Fridays would lead to the government being voted out at the next election!
330 Wakefield
Just to correct the record, to actually show what I said about the “Che” poster:
Anyone who put up that poster probably knows nothing about the historical figure nor the historical facts, so going on a diatribe about Che is hardly the point. Suggesting that Obama has revolutionary forces, ready to execute the opposition on the strength of one poster is laughable nonsense.
…in other words, those kids probably have no idea who or what Che was, it’s just a poster to them.
I clearly did NOT say I’m a ’sympathiser’ and once again GG, must resort to lying to cover the fact that he completely got it wrong about whose office they were in.
Ho hum!
When the poor boy cannot even comprehend a staightfoward couple of sentences without getting it COMPLETELY wrong, you do have to wonder! LOL
Interesting post Asanque.
Latest odds I have seen for McCain are 2.85 which indicates a 35% win chance. Given that the Republicans have won 7 of 10 elections in the last forty years I would have thought the odds quite heroic.
The final outcome will be at best 45/55.
I’d be taking the odds to McCain and punting your preferred Democrat.
331
davidoff
The only fly in the ointment, or maybe the biggest one, is that the longer Obama and Clinton slug it out, the more likely they’ll split the party and damage their prospects in November.
There’s no ‘quick kill’ for either, so the thing running to the wire and the Supers getting to do the thumbs up and down thing will be very hard on the respective supporters.
This is going to be a long year.
Dyno # 335
yes that will be the Hillary stategy you described
But a point comes for the party Chief’s & through them to the Superdelegates that the Party’s interests to have a Candidate (Hillary) who lost 26 out of 36 Primarys by end Feb
Its this credibility imbalance in States which may cause pressure to be put on her to exit gracefully paricularly if Superdelegates break for Obama
which I expect to occur
asanque @ 337,
Agree with you it all hinges on Ohio and Texas.
I think “momentum” comes with its own in-built trap – a trap called “expectations”.
If Hillary gets out of Ohio/Texas with a 50/50 result her campaign will say “we’ve stopped the bleeding, this guy looked unstoppable but we’ve slowed him down”. And of course they’ll only be, at most, 100 delegates behind if they can get that result on March 4.
In my view, at that point it will be a case of “stand back and watch the fight” for the following seven weeks (and probably beyond).
Obama probably needs to win 55-60% of the two candidate vote across Ohio and Texas to deliver the knockout blow (and even in that case, only if she then agrees to give up).
I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama won either Texas or Ohio. Here are his projected losses, from his teams spreadsheet.
Ohio 46%/ 53%
Texas 47%/ 51%
In the last week, he has performed about 15% BETTER than his projections. If the momentum keeps up, he could come close or even win. They are caucuses though which is against him. Latinos are evidently not won over by rhetoric so Texas won’t swing as much as the recent states.
Billary’s backers have said she needs resounding victories in both Texas and Ohio or they will be pulling out (but surprisingly wouldn’t be quoted on that!).
342 – GG
Given all polls are showing McCain neck and neck with Clinton and Obama, 2.85 is not bad odds.
However, I am of the view the current environment just is no good for the republicans this year.
Nevertheless, I won’t be at all surprised to see those odds shorten in the next few months.
I’m by no means an expert in US politics.
Nice to see today’s events in Canberra get noticed:
http://www.salon.com/wires/ap/world/2008/02/11/D8UOCIB01_australia_aborigines/index.html
…and not word about what ’stolen’ does or doesn’t mean.
Bloody Julie Bishop trying to parse ’stolen’ was so damn tacky I hope she chokes on the word tomorrow.
Dio @ 346,
Well, you could be right about Hillary’s backers, I’m not sure.
Must say though that I don’t read her as someone who would quit having just got a 50/50 result, and still within strking distance of the lead.
Running out of money (or out of super-delegate support) could conceivably change it all, though.
Wouldn’t it be fun to be the one chosen to “tap her on the shoulder”!
It is high time for this simple, subtle statement.
And it is a pity for the Liberals that they cannot quite swallow their prejudices. Do they have no humility; no desire to improve? But enough of them. They are irrelevant now. They are the past and should be left to their futile laments, along with the indecencies, the cruelties and the bigotries that have called out for redress for so long.
It is high time to say and hear and think of these things; to make amends; and make a fresh start.
I am not easily carried along by political statements, but I am thankful for this one and – hopefully not for the only time – proud of the leadership that has been shown by the PM.
Hillary is like the Terminator, never count her out.
She has a well oiled machine, many great connections and is still marginally ahead in the pledged delegate and super delegate count.
However, Obama is a once in a generation candidate.
347
asanque
Don’t worry, none of us here are ‘experts’ on US elections, and the only expert told us it would be over Feb 5th.
More than once, if I recall correctly, and in no uncertain terms! LOL
But mostly we get to exchange a lot of info and opinions and for the most part, it’s all quite interesting, and I for one have learnt heaps about US politics, an area that never interested me nearly as much as it does this year.
350
blindoptimist
Likewise, and it’s a bloody good feeling.
GG @ 342,
Odds on McCain are ok, I guess, but I suspect this will be the second time (2000 being the first) that GWB will be the reason for McCain failing to become President.
I think the Democrats are pretty convinced of that, too, which is why I don’t think Hillary will give up on March 5 (unless she gets really thumped on March 4). I reckon she’ll think she can spend two more months in a (possibly) sordid fight for the nomination, and then still beat a Republican, this year.
asanque @ 351,
Totally agree with all that.
Asanque,
And you are not good on odds.,
Once either Clinton or Obama is eliminated then the Democrat odds will shrink to about 1.90 for either candidate. Mccain will shrink to about 2.05. The best value on McCain is now.
346
Diogenes
The off the record remarks quoted in a couple of NYTimes articles are not very confident, it’s all ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ and there’s definitely a feeling of circling the wagons.
But I don’t count her out, despite Obama’s Big Mo, he must not slip even a little. In other words, he must keep outperforming or she can claim to have stemmed the tide, as someone just pointed out.
He is playing this like a high wire act, and must convince the voters that he’ll not fall off, and his chosen tactic to keep highly emotional rhetoric and appeals to an almost mystical belief in change as his motiff, is vulnerable to losing its shine.
So far, however, it’s working.
GG @356,
Can’t follow the logic of that.
The people setting the odds know that McCain is (virtually) in the last two already, and that knowledge would be factored into the current odds.
356 – GG
I disagree.
The Democrats may drift but I don’t believe they will drift past 1.80 unless something drastic happens.
There is no way they’ll hit 1.90.
Just for the record, the Democrats are currently at 1.50 v 2.95.
The markets have already factored in either candidate vs McCain. If Obama wins I see moderate drifting at best.
If Hillary beats Obama, the markets may drift upwards past 1.60 to 1.70 but despite the polls, she must remain favourite against McCain.
I look forward to seeing which one of us is right.
KR # 357,
I think you’re right about Obama’s strategy, and Obama knows it, and so does Clinton. Exactly why she’ll be hanging out for that seven week gap, during which no more concrete bad news can occur. She’s like a football team that’s struggling, praying for half-time to come so it can re-group.
I think the Macca bet is great value at $2.85. The Dems as a party should win but when they do choose one, it becomes mano a mano. If Billary whinges, connives and lawyers her way in as the Dem, she will get slaughtered. And Obama will get everything thrown at him by the Repugs, with the finger on the “Fear” button and “terrorism-sympathiser” and every crap you can think of. A nation of vegetables who could vote in George W TWICE and believe in creationism aren’t too hard to panic into a bad decision.
If I’m wrong about Hillary’s early March concession and Superdelgates do not stampede to Obama & Hillary fights to the end
the Democrats have a nightmare scenaro of Edwards 26 votes in play plus his 25 Superdelegates , the Michigan/Florida votes dispute plus large Superdelegates
numbers in a mix….whilst the Repugs have their house in order
hopefully to finish the race Ohio & texas will follow the momentum to Obama
#343
On the subject of a quick kill:
1. fundraising – Hillary’s recent announcements in funds seems to be a coming from her grassroots community reacting to her 5m loan “Oh. Hillary I don’t know you had a problem”. At the same time she seems to be in struggling to hold together the financial backers of the machine who are doing plain old risk management (without too much passion).
2. momentum – on the Hillary blogs are the occasional comments from people saying “We need to setup a grassroots movement like Obama has”. In the meantime Obama is raising something like a million a day and the passion is intense. Over on the Hillary campaign there are times when you can hear pins drop – especially after moments like the Maine event. Bad news will be hitting the Hillary supporters for the next few weeks – and she’s going to loose the passion element and that’s going to play into the on-the-ground support in those so called firewall states. Thing is passion works for the underdog and in particular the underdog making good. I.e. its like a balloon – and Hillary’s balloon appears to be loosing air at an uncomfortable rate.
Anyway – we will have more meat to digest in the next 24 hours with DC, Maryland, and Virgina – and IMO – the only questions here will be “by how much?”.
Hi KR,
Don’t know if you have heard about the “Fantaills” franchise, but I’ll give you a cut of the action if you can show where I have lied (yr 341).
Dio,
Won’t just be the Republicans throwing stuff at Obama.
Team Clinton’s already been out there with “we wouldn’t say anything too bad about Obama, but those horrible GOPers would”. Those comments will become a lot more specific and pointed after March 4 – “we wouldn’t say Obama is , but the Republicans will say so”.
Cheers Asanque,
I don’t bet on anything that talks. But good luck.
#351 asanque
I would have agreed a few weeks ago but looking at info that details an executive that does not communicate with each other, arguments, one hand not knowing about the financial status, the other not knowing about the 5 million injection, stuff reshuffling, people without clear job definitions. I would be hesitant to use the term a well oiled machine to describe the Clinton campaign machine.
Davidoff by how much?”
Maryland 60/40
DC 62/38
Virginia 55/44
The 1.90 on offer for Democrats I’ll take a bet on those generous odds
I don’t think we’ll see the Democrats over 1.50 & McCain under 2.75
correction 1.70 not 1.50
gg@366
does that include Mr Ed.
364
GG
What you have to do is explain first is how you jumped to the conclusion, without any evidence except what you invented:
239 You obviosly have bought the hagiography about Che. The fact remains as to why Obama’s staff had that photo prominently displayed in his office.
About Che:
334 It is worse than that, he is alive on this blog. KR has withdrawn but by golly there are some sympathisers here.
…and then we’ll see who is bending the truth!
In other words, you never addressed the fact that you quoted some rubbish blog as gospel, then got your facts wrong about it, and THEN attacked me for things I CLEARLY did not say.
You have a very slim grip on reality, GG, or do you just always make stuff up and hope nobody notices?
Well, I do.
I’ve been off here for a bit and have only had to scan the above discussion with the disoriented comrade from Greensborogh. I have only the following to say.
1: Anyone who takes seriously anything on the blog of that corrupt grub Andrew Landeryou needs to take a big dose of reality medicine.
2: Che was a noble if flawed figure and if I really thought Obama admired him in any way I would be trumpeting his political virtues to the stratosphere (as opposed to predicting that he’ll win over Billary in the primaries.) Che is condemned for presiding over the firing squad execution os a handfulo of mafiosi and torturers. Bill Clinton presided over (among other things) the sanctions regime in Iraq that led to the deaths of tens of thousands (at least, let’s avoid the argument about whether it was 500,000 or “only” tens of thousands) of, mostly, children. So, apparently, Che is a hideous murderer and Clinton was a great guy.
Personally, I would be pleased if O
367
davidoff
Agree. The most glaring omission was not planning beyond Feb 5th, and it really looks like it’s caught them by surprise!
Obama’s crew have planned well ahead, and his performance has enabled them to implement it. Hillary’s has been shaken, then revived, then shaken again, so it’s clear which one is slipping in this race.
#368 Ron ..
I’ve double the number of champaign bottles in the fridge (its causing some degree of tension but I have it under control). I’m going to go a little bit heavier on the aggressive side and put up the following numbers (obama/clinton) …
Maryland 60/32
DC 60/35
Virginia 61/38
And these numbers are based on the fact that Obama has established himself as a totally viable can-win candidate whereas every event before Maine he was fighting the machine.
372
Robert Bollard
I think Obama’s more of a centrist RB, but I like your sentiment! LOL
(Oh, and as for that blogger and his diatribe about a poster on a wall, it was so ludicrous I thought it was meant to be satire! Clearly the Growler is easily persuaded of any inanity! LOL)
Robert Ballard,
Look cobber, as a proctolologist, I usually only deal with one arsehole at a time, but I’ll make a special stop for you. Che was a murdering scumbag who would not have had any problem cutting the throat of you, your missus and your loved ones if it had of advanced his cause.
Just like the fashionable Islamo Fascists.
“The star of the show, Mister Ed, was not just any horse. To the amazement of viewers, he was able to talk – and this got his owner, Wilbur, into all kinds of trouble! Whenever mischievious Ed used the telephone or got out of his stable you could be sure that hilarious drama would never be far away’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Ed
well Davidoff , you are even more confident that I re Virginia& may uou be right !
Glad you got your fridge under control
My problem is I keep bringing the Chapers out to celebrate but get told my call is too early and by that time my ice has melted
any spare ice my friend ?
#378
Just between you and me – if my numbers come in I’ll be halving my stock the same day.
I don’t have any doubt that the Clinton camp is in disarray at the moment, whilst life in Chateau Obama would be pretty good.
But, folks, it’s all about the delegates, and she’s still winning, and even after tomorrow’s debacle (if such it is) won’t be too far behind.
Obama needs those March 4 primaries/caucuses!
New thread open for general discussion of Australian politics.
I may clean mine right out
& join you for your 1/2 thereafter but will bring some with me
GG,
I have reservations about your problem with Obama and the Che connection. Firstly the story seems to be a beat-up, the “office” is evidently one occupied by volunteers. Have you not seen Che’s image on t-shirts worn by people who know nothing about Australian (never mind Latin American) politics? It’s just a cultural artefact like a Jimi Hendrix image, for such people.
Secondly, you have a touching faith in Landeryou’s site. It is merely a clearing house for his prejudices political and personal. Since he is an enthusiastic supporter of the currently dominant right faction in the Victorian ALP. they are happy to feed him information. Consequently he is reliable on factional disputes within the Victorian ALP, but what he posts is inevitably slanted. Branch-stacking by the left is a heinous crime, but by the right, it’s the justified action of “patriots” (one of his highly-favoured terms), for example.
Some of his personal prejudices have to be a wind-up; his support for Sophie Mirabella is too bizarre to be otherwise explained.
He also relies on being un-sueable, because of his lack of assets.
What an excellent performance tonight.
A Local Man. Ben Chifley. Written Bob Ellis etc. Performed by Tony Barry. Brilliantly portrayed. Followed by a Q and A session, when Mr Barry responded to queries from the audience.
Mr Barry expressed his sincerity, in not only his role, but his responses, especially in advocating that the (receptive) audience participate in the ‘Sorry’ Parliament, tomorrow morning.
Mr Barry clearly acts the role of Ben Chifley, as a believer in fairness, justice, hope.
And invites us, as we know, to believe in the same.
Oh thank god, Growler’s here to protect us from murdering “Islamo Fascists”!
Phew, do I feel safe now, or what?
For someone who doesn’t check his facts before shooting off his mouth, I hope he actually enquires before blasting anyone away! LOL
Just another point as to why Virgina could go to Obama beyond the projections is that people in Virginia do not need to designate a political party affiliation when registering to vote – and that means a potential influx of Republican voters to the Obama ticket. But – yes – all of the experts are telling us that Hillary is focusing on Virgina and ignoring the other states. I.e. anything I’m projecting should be viewed as highly speculative.
KR,
You untruthfully called me a liar. No evidence, just bluster again. I just hope you grow up to mean more by saying less.
#384
KR
You should know better than that. Feral cats don’t carry arms – you more likely to recognize them by the noise they make and the smell they leave behind.
davidoff,
but are there any facts there.
pls tell.
GG
You don’t like being caught do you?
“You obviosly have bought the hagiography about Che.”
…now, where did I ‘obviously’ say any such thing?
You’re a little twister, just like ESJ, make snide comments WITHOUT any evidence, and hope I won’t call you on it.
Well, I will. And you’ve done it, and you can’t retract it, it’s there in black and white, but all you want to do is hurl abuse because you cannot admit it.
Nice GG, really big of you.
You made a dumb post, I pointed it out, and you just don’t like being called on getting your facts wrong.
Small.
Yes, I can smell this one alright, has the same odour as ESJ.
Anyway, orf to bed.
US futures market is trying to stay happy about GM, (god knows why), while one big pharma is writing off a $2.3bn ‘accounting’ loss. Oh, good, it’s only numbers! LOL
I love the game, but not tonight Josephine.
KR
clarify your “snot” comments
p.k.b
davidoff
used to purloining pussy are we
KR,
Nuh,
Does not cut the mustard comrade.
Off to bed.
Is it OOOOOOOOOOH yes!
GG,
I was warned before coming to this country that Aussies love a good stoush!!
I, for one, marvel at and enjoy KR’s posts.
With an “L” plate firmly glued to my forehead, I am just green with envy that he can express his passion so eloquently and with speed at that!
Crikey Whitey,
Good to see you back.
Megan,
Welcome.
You will eventually learn how to distinguish bullshit from blather.
Coffee some time?
megan
i thought it was only grog and maybe choof that fuelled kirri
but hey if speed is it -then whatever rocks your boat
#390
KR – you need to get yourself ahead of the market trends – we have a new product coming up in the US auto industry. Bionics in the next generation and GM is leading the way.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/11/AR2008021102656.html?hpid=topnews
More Possums flushed out.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/regression_analysis_of_the_dem.php
Morning all -
it just occurred to me as I prepare to watch the Apology here that perhaps there is a synchronisty happening with the US elections. A desire for change that is way beyond party politics and economics and is represented in their case by Obama.
In other words this has become a cultural rather than political shift and that may be why Hillary can’t stop him. She is so much a part of the political paradigm.
This then means the ‘lack of experience issue’ has no bearing on his popularity and may in fact be a bonus. Hasn’t hurt Kevin any.
397
davidoff
Very witty! I like the ‘left over parts from Rumsfeld and Giuliani’ idea.
Or as one poster on a US blog said, it seems all that stuff about being ready on day one went out the window on FEB 6th.
Ta boom!
399
jen
There seems to be a resonance, and yes we can!
Speaking of the US recession, here is a story about General Motors – a US $37 Billion loss has been announced for 2007, and up to 74,000 jobs are to go.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23206259-952,00.html
This is about 1/3 of GMs total workforce. It comes on top of the loss of 30,000 jobs between 2005 and 2008. The states most affected will be mid-north such as Michigan (Detroit) and Ohio, plus a major impact across the border in Canadian plants in Ontario (Toronto is home to the Canadian manufcturing industry). Failure to gear up for hybrids and more economical car models is really starting to hurt the US economy, just as Al Gore said it would.
When blaming the media doesn’t work, just blame those pesky voters.
403
asanque
This if from a US blogger regarding those ‘unrepesentative caucuses’:
The Clinton effort to spin their caucus losses ignores the fact that many of the caucuses have been on weekends or in the evening and that there has been enormous and unprecedented participation by a wide range of voters. Maine which has an older, overwhelmingly white demographic and has two female senators went heavily for Obama this past Sunday. The efforts by some in the media to try to make race a defining issue in this campaign are falling on deaf ears. The voting public to its credit appears to be way ahead of the mainstream (New York and D. C.) media in evaluating the merits of the presidential candidates
I also didn’t hear Clinton rejecting the unrepresentative caucuses when she won the popular vote in Nevada.
Meanwhile, have you heard Obama say anything bad about the states he has lost in?
405
asanque
Oh yeah, he said he was going to ship all those Clintonista south of the border for some ‘re-education’!
When told there were millions of Latinos in California, and it would be impossible to deport them all, he said “yes we can, just ask Mike Huckabee!”
Good analysis on the race and voters
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/02/the_state_of_the_democratic_ra.html
408
asanque
Yes, interesting analysis, and you can see how hard it is in the US with so many racial blocks, who do not necessarily vote as one. Like the distinction I found elsewhere about Latinos who had been in the country a long time, or had more recently arrived, they don’t see the world in the same way.
Gotta say it’s really hard to see who’s going to win this contest, or even by what rules, considering Florida and Michigan.
Popcorn time….!
Huge turnout in Maryland and Virginia. I’m sure they are flooding out to ensure Billary stares down the “dirty tricks” campaign of that awful “black candidate” Obama.
Although, the early exit polls suggest that might not be the reason they are turning out.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/02/12/politics/p140627S54.DTL
ABC News in the US is predicting an Obama win in Virginia based on exit polls.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4279122&page=1
CNN have done it again… predicting Obama to win the VA primary based on exit polls. Looking at the exit poll data, there’s a couple of big differences to other states, such as Hillary with a lower share of the vote (albeit not by as much) to people without a college education, and while White Democrats went towards Hillary, White Independents and Republicans went strongly to Obama. There was only a 51-48 split to Hillary between White voters according to CNN’s exit poll.
Huckabee is beating McCain with 4% of the vote counted. That’s a real worry for McCain if he loses Virginia. He’ll still be the candidate, but it looks like the conservatives still hate him.
7% counted in Viriginia and Huckabee up 51-42
Does Huckabee really have a chance? I thought it was mathematically impossible – or is that becuase Romney has a decent number of delegates too and you can’t get 50% when 10% are Romney supporters on the cross-benches.
The nationwide polls are interesting…
Democratic Polls
USA Today/Gallup Poll
2/9/2008
N=1279
w/o Gore
Hillary Clinton 46%
Barack Obama 44%
Mike Gravel 1%
Unsure 8%
Other 1%
Source
USA Today/Gallup Poll
2/7/2008
N=1226
w/o Gore
Hillary Clinton 48%
Barack Obama 43%
Mike Gravel 2%
Unsure 7%
Other 1%
Source
USA Today/Gallup Poll
2/5/2008
N=1232
w/o Gore
Hillary Clinton 51%
Barack Obama 40%
Unsure 8%
Other 1%
Source
413
asanque
That Hcuk is still clinging to his ‘miracle’ huh? But you’re right, it confirms the split in the Repbulican party is not going away and McCain is going to look weaker the longer Hcuk stays.
NYTimes shows Obama well in front, and better than 60/40, a ratio that was Clinton’s at one time in this race. (Although, still on 8% counted, so it could change yet)
Hillary’s best State expectation today was Virginia
17% counted Obama 61% & Hillary 38%
a massacre
that 3/3/08 Hillary concession prediction may not be so optimistic ?
Obama lead holding as counts edge past 20%.
But McCain catching Huckabee. 47-45
The Democrats are again vastly outnumbering the Republicans but I don’t know if that is normal in Virginia.
Rates
30% counted Obama 61% & Hillary 38%
at least Hillary’s advisers must be getting doubts ?
29% counted – Obama stretching lead 62-37
Huck and McCain neck and neck at 46-46
Yes, it’s strange that there are pretty much an identical % of precincts reporting (30%), but that this equates to 225 000 Dems and 130 000 Reps – are the Republicans slow counters, or something
Obama gets 55% of the Latino vote in Virginia. As I’ve said before “Billary is dead”. How do you spin a 25% drubbing?
As someone pointed out above, this was the state she had the best hope in today. The other two might be pretty ugly (as if 61-38 isn’t)
Are there still substantial pre-polls in favour of Hillary? Might we see some more late swings even when Obama is already leading?
I think the pre-poll argument will continue.
However, Missouri would appear to have a different demographic breakdown than VA.
In brighter news for Clinton, latest polls show that she is still leading Obama by a large margin, although Obama is closing.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html
That was for Ohio
Rates
the other 2 Primarys are Maryland & DC which have approx 50% and 30% Afro American voters
the 862/38 in virginia will be worse in the other 2
….its a real massacre !
re wayaway
Democrat turnout is double the Republican turnout
both counts about 305….yes Repugs must be slow counters !
McCain takes the lead with 38% counted.
Maryland voting has been extended due to bad weather.
Ron… I find it really odd that the Dems can count twice as fast – all joking aside, that makes no sense to me…
I just don’t get the mechanics of it… even assuming the number of precincts are equal, and may account for some of the overall time taken to report, surely each precinct would finish their count more quickly counting half the number of votes??? A perhaps pointless puzzle, but a puzzle (to me) nonetheless…
Aah, there isn’t separate counting for the two parties… and the precincts report once, with results from boths sides… sorry for thinking out loud
I’ve never voted in a primary, but from what I infer they are run at the same places by (hopefully) independent operators.
As such, the precinct won’t report until both counts are finsished. Hence, the precincts are always equal but there are more Dem votes.
48% precincts in 61/38
Godbye Hillary because
Virginia may be the decisive State result because 2 of Hillary’s previous demographic voting blocs have NOW gone to Obama
Exit Polls
Women Obama 58/42
college education 62/38
no college education 62/38
Hillary had the young non Afro american non college education vote in previous Primarys
The only bloc left for her are the Latino’s
not sure of % in Virginia but they are crucial to her in Texas
Billary’s deputy campaign manager resigns. The rats leave the ship.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/02/clinton_deputy_campaign_manage.html
Ron-she lost the Latinos too. Obama got 55% of them. It’s Goodnight Irene.
thanks Diogenes
well that means Texas is unwinable I’d assume
hell the concession may be mad ethis month
Cnn call virginia for McCain
Something is in the Ether -
the Old Order is drowning, taking conservatives from all sides of politics with it.
Rudd/ Obama: a new way.
I’ve got a theory why the Latinos are coming onto the Good Ship Obama. They have seem how the Clinton’s have been happy to throw the African-Americans under the bus after getting their vote. And they are worried the same will happen to them.
Hmmm… maybe Clinton should attempt to get Ohio/Texas to “do a Florida” and move their primaries forward a few weeks so she can get a win up and break this run of losses!!!
True that Jen.
Is exciting to see the affinity which Ruddster and Obama seem to have. What’s more exciting is the goodwill which the Chinese also have towards Rudd and how our guy might be able to use that to get the Americans and Chinese together to bring about a new spirit of co-operation in our region. This bodes well for a solution to the issue of global warming. All of the political battles of the last decade are melting away. We are truly progressing into the 21st century, as a country and with hope maybe also as a planet.
Huck may be winning hard-core conservative voters and downscale conservatives (the Pauline Hanson coalition) but the ‘conservative movement’ dislikes him almost as much as McCain. No one I can see is calling for a desperate rally around Huck the way they were calling for a rally around Romney (look at Human Events). A lot of conservatives have been so dispirited by the Bush experience that in their heart of hearts they almost want the Dems to win so that they can enjoy the delights of righteous opposition.
There are good reasons to support Hillary but her problem may have been that she didn’t realise she had to convince voters of this, mostly she played defensively from the first bounce. The classic defensive strategy has been to concede African-American voters, you don’t win a race by starting behind. It’s the opposite of Rudy who lost ground as voters learnt what he stood for.
DC Frustration!!!
Polls closed over an hour ago . . . still no results. But then again, that’s understandable given that it’s effectively a single electorate with over 370000 voters – that’s a lot of counting to be done. Are the vtes counted at precinct level or centrally. If the former, then I would have thought progressive totals should be flowing by now. If the latter, it’s going to be a helluva wait . . .
CNN has shifted Obama’s picture to the far left. We have a new leader: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/.
Jen at 400 and 439: hear you loud and clear. The Kid is better equipped to surf the zeitgeist. Simple as that! He’s cutting the wave to pieces with his triple-finned short board, whearas Billary thinks she looks cool on a Malibu while she’s being played off a Gidget break.
And that new perfume Obi’s wearin’………it’s workin’ like a Pheromone Special Chick-Magnet that Coco Chanel would die for.
Doc at 440: Your hypothesis makes a lot of taco-bendin’ sense.
Hillary is talking now: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2008/02/05/VI2008020501430.html#livechat
439
Jen
yes, I remember putting forward that thesis on these boards last year (when I was backing the ALP and Maxine with my money) only to get told I was one of the many ‘ignorant loathing lefties’ on this blog! ROFL!
Well, it seems that ‘change’ was more than just in the ‘air’ or the ‘ether’, eh?
Even if Obama does not make it through (although he’s got the mojo and the big Mo a workin’!) he’s sure as hell shakin’ up the ‘experts’!
447
Pancho
thanks Pancho
She’s in Texas already! A Rudy tactic…didn’t work out so well the first time around.
Hillary’s recent tactics have been abysmal.
She has basically told voters in all the recent primaries that their vote doesn’t matter, as they do not suit her demographic or are caucuses.
Its a last ditch strategy as she concentrates all her remaining ammunition on Texas and Ohio. Its extremely risky, and moreso because despite only having a small chance at winning these recent primaries, delegates are still awarded on a proportional basis and she is costing herself delegates.
HRC may as well have said it.
“Its been a rough day. I got up this morning … put on a shirt and a button fell off. I picked up my briefcase and the handle came off. I’m afraid to go to the bathroom.”
(Rodney Dangerfield)
Has anything good ever come out of Texas?
Pancho, she could hardly fill a phone box in Virginia today! LOL
And listen to how much she sounds like she’s reading an Obama speech, except for the ‘work really, really hard’, like Obama doesn’t?
446
EC
Ah, it’s the pheromones!
It’s won me.
Oh geez! Its now 63/37 to Obama in Virginia with 76% counted. It’s getting embarrasing for Hillary.
And pheromones have a lot more appeal than the whiff of desperation that appears to be eminating from the Clampett’s camp.
Actually…it’s 63/36….I hear the sound of a lady drowning
456
Ferny Grover
She’s on the stage in Texas and she’s not even mentioning Virginia, like it never happened.
It’s so Basil Fawlty (the TV one!): don’t mention the war, or the election!
No results from D.C. for another hour, despite the polls closing 8pm.
Apparently, KR, the good Dem voters of Virginia…and DC…and Maryland…are ‘not representative’ of the electorate. Surprisingly, they are of the view that they ARE the electorate. Silly voters.
Dood ol’ CNN has just called Maryland for Obama and McCain….without a vote being counted. So THAT’s why they contracted Jonathan Edwards to do the election coverage.
461
reminds me of our own JWH saying that the polls were the result of the voters just having a bit of a joke with him.
What a sad little man.
kr@448
you forgot to mention how you singlehandly got J-Ho kicked out,organised the apology, got nelson elected,saved the whales yada yada yada and btw founded the internet
you are certainly unique -a waste of space who occupies space
full of shite and bile yet the visage of bambi
reread rain @319 and get the sand out of your mouth and your head out of your arse
you cannot even defend your numerous slurs and invective-perhaps you got a bad batch que
and stop plagiarising other posters-shows a severe lack of intellectual rigour
464
gusface
Oh look, another snot throwing little grub having a go! LOL
Pathetic.
All three now called for Obama… oh, and thanks KR, for all that stuff you did… i like whales…
And all 3 for McCain…
463
Jen
yes, and Dolly and co. all trying to justify their excellent government in the face of what was awaiting them!
Oh geez again! 76%/24 to Obama in DC with nearly half the vote counted. No wonder Hillary has run away to Texas. That’s a nice shade of deep red she’s wearing
466
wayaway
no probs WW, all in a day’s blogging! LOL
Did I save whales too? Sheesh, fantastic!
Plenty of votes counted in DC and it aint pretty for Clinton!
49% counted 76-24 to Obama!!!
Crikey, that’s a scorcher, Ferny, but let’s not forget, it’s only the ‘block’ vote!
471
Rates Analyst
That’s odd, the NYTimes just put out that results were an hour away for DC.
Oh well, I guess everyone’s flying on rumour and depserate to get the latest news.
Camp Clinton must be feeling a bit battered.
I wonder if the superdelegates will follow Hillary’s campaign manager and deputy out the door.
463 – Jen
Don’t we all fondly reminisce at JWH and his fearmongering. I’m sure he would have got on really well with Obama after calling him a terrorist sympathiser or the like.
Bush and Howard have now been rightfully consigned to the dustbin of history, and I hope historians record a big black mark on both their insipid histories.
You know, I’m beginning to think my money on Obama is safe, and of course, McCain, my betting account loves you! (Or will, as soon he hits the magic number)
476 KR – What odds did you get?
Very early Maryland showing Obama at 72/26. I’ll save my ‘oh geez!’ till later
477
asanque
It’s 9’s for McCain and 5’s for Obama.
It’ll be another Bollinger day if both come off. (Oh, and I’ll blow a couple of hundred on Huckleberry, but who gives a flying HCUK? LOL)
478
Ferny Grover
So, clean sweep of the Chesapeake!
GObama! Go!
479 – is that for the respective candidacies or presidency?
Well done on the good wagers
from live blog NYT:
Barack Obama takes the mic in Madison, Wisc.
Here are the numbers from the rally in Madison: 17,600 inside the Kohl Center and more than 1,500 in the overflow area.
“The change we seek swept through the Chesapeake and over the Potomac,” Mr. Obama says, noting that he won in Maryland, Virginia and Washington, which he adds almost apologetically because “this movement won’t stop til there’s change in Washington, D.C., and …
Mr. Obama has left the primary against Mrs. Clinton behind and is taking aim at Mr. McCain. He says that Mr. McCain has said the war in Iraq will be 100 years — which is reason not to give him four years in the White House. And Mr. McCain at one time opposed the Bush tax cuts for the rich but now wants them to be made permanent. That “Straight Talk Express?” The wheels have come off, he says.
481
asanque
It’s on nomination for respective parties.
yes, putting up some cash always makes the show so much more enjoyable and allows me to take amusement when the clowns start throwing their own faeces, which they do so well! LOL
483 – KR
You got them both at great odds
McCain is a lock now.
Obama is annihilating Clinton in these 3 primaries, even amongst her own demographic. She has also lost her campaign and deputy campaign manager in the last few days.
The question is: do you now hedge on Clinton
121 Pledged Delegate lead for Obama on RCP and the day is not yet finished, with 2 more favourable primaries to come.
Virgina (94% counted): Obama 63%, Cinton 36
District of Columbia (89%): Obama 76%, Clinton 24%
Mike Henry – Deputy Campaign Manager’s memo to Hillary.
I bet she wishes she listened then.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/23/us/politics/23text-clinton.html?_r=3&oref=slogin&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
gusface-
don’t get the issues you have with kirribilli – doesn’t seem to be more opinionated than many of the rest of us.
Gets v. unpleasant when you 2 start your spatting.
Bigger things afoot here Guys-
looks like we may end up with a young black man in the whitehouse.
These big wins are going to be very important given the proportional voting they use…
Clinton’s “Big Win” in California was a net 40 delegates.
At the moment, Obama is likely to pick up 20-25 delegates in each of Marlyand and Virginia….
So Maryland + Viginia > California!!!!
It won’t take too many big wins like this to undo a small win to Clinton in a big state.
Something else that’s vaguely intersting but more of just a statistical anomaly.
Clinton has been, by universal acknowledgement, smashed.
However, clinton outpolled McCain in Virginia. And by a reasonably margin too!
Asanque @ 484 – I won’t be hedging on my Obama bets by backing Clinton – much more satisfying to collect on the win without giving some back.
RA, I read earlier that many republicans are bypassing McCain and voting Clinton in Virginia. Appaarently there is a distinct split in Repubs who listen to talkback radio and those who don’t.
Steve,
If that’s true, it augurs very badly for McCain come November….
Ok….I think it’s now safe to say…”oh geez!” – it’s an Obamarama – DC 75/24, Virginia 64/35 and Maryland being the most ‘disappointing’ at 61/36.
I think I hear Hillary saying….”OH GEEZ!”
Asanque @ 484
yeah, what JV said!
I’m happy to sit, as they say, and really McCain more than covers me! LOL
Gotta say, it’s very enjoyable watching Obama come from behind, take Clinton on the last turn and get his nose ahead for the last straight.
Here’s the NYT blog washup:
Here’s all you have to know about tonight, beyond Mr. Obama’s landslide wins that washed out Mrs. Clinton in Virginia, Maryland, and the District: Mr. Obama beat Mrs. Clinton among women in both Virginia and Maryland. (There were no exit polls in the District.) And Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton were running about even among white voters. He’s also pulled ahead a bit in the race for delegates by the Associated Press’s count. It’s serious retrenchment time in the Clinton camp. And it’s time to see if Mr. Obama can turn this series of wins since Super Tuesday into the Big Mo.
…phew, another day, another victory.
Steve @ 453, Paris.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jMAWY5JRPw
Something interesting in the exit polls for Virginia – 7% voting for the Democrats were Republicans, and of that 7% – the spit between Obama and Clinton was 72% for Obama and 23% for Clinton.
Mayland (44% counted): Obama 62%, Clinton 35%.
Hmm maybe Hillary’s new tactic will be to try and force Obama to spend as much time in Texas as possible and hope some inbred redneck kkk member will try and shoot him perhaps?
davidoff @ 498 – thats interesting, does that mean that roughly 5% of Obamas vote was Republican?
Does anyone know how primary voting stat patterns compare to the Big One in November?
I hadn’t thought of this angle before, until a Dem friend of mine said that she had voted in the Republican primary, not the Dem one, and I asked why? she said living in a safe blue state, it doesn’t matter which Dem candidate, so she usually preferred to go in the Repub primary races, as a symbolic F-You gesture against Bush in recent elections, and/or add her vote for a more moderate centrist Repub candidate.
.
To complicate matters further has there been much difference between Open vs Closed primaries? (similar or different to caucuses?)
.
If a significant number of people do this on either side in the primaries, how does that translate to who they might vote for, come election day? Anybody got any numbers which might shed light on this?
.
Just as a hypothetical scenario – say much of the Repub voting in open Dem primaries, is more a symbolic F-You to Clinton, and wouldn’t it then be possible that this would not translate to similar voter support for Democrat come November?
.
I remember something similar being said in the aftermath of the Oz election, when the opinion polls just didnt translate that well to the final counts, and I think someone said that when it came down to the crunch, inside the booth, no matter what they said against Howard in opinion polls, they still voted with the pencil-in-hand, the same way they always had.
.
Davidoff & Ron 12/2/08 predictions
…………….Actual……..Ron…………Davidoff
DC…………76/24………62/38……….60/35
Maryland….63/37………60/40……….60/32
Virginia ……65/35………55/44……….61/38
Davidoff we both were regarded as optimistic ……..but not optimistic enough !
You were closer so I owe you a champers
But i’ve opened the champers..Obama IS the nominee !!…..Clinton will concede
Some warning signs from Virginia.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/12/some-serious-warning-sign_n_86332.html
suggest Texas & Ohio no longer matters….Hillary will have said her last goodbye
hope you also got the fridge open Davidoff ?
#502 Ron:
Well – if you do the numbers I figure you won DC, Maryland was a draw, and I won Virgina – but like you said we were both just too conservative. All up – I figure its a draw.
#504 Ron:
Yep – stocks are now down just a little – nothing excessive but a party non the less.
Rain, do you agree with Mark Penn that Hillary Clinton confounded pollsters and the chattering classes with her Super Tuesday results?
#501 Rain:
Basically – yes – or more technically it means that 5% of the exit poll participants declared themselves as Republicans – but as we know – this group tends to hang out in shadows and talk in whispers – so maybe the number is higher. Either way, its a good sign for the upcoming election.
There are plenty of Repugs who are saying they will turn out at the Dem primaries to vote for Obama. The Texas vote is a hybrid open primary/closed caucus and plenty of Repug Texans will help out Obama over the line.
I thought Ron was being overly optimistic when he predicted Billary conceding after mini-Super Tuesday, but now I think he may well be right. A party that has complained about getting every vote counted and how important the popular vote is cannot possibly let the superdelegates overturn the wishes of the party.
Some of the exit polls are showing Obama is capturing an increasing slice of the female vote. Perhaps the following link explains it all.
http://brokeymcpoverty.wordpress.com/tag/barack/
Intrade has 74/26.
The Obamarama is rolling right along.
506
TurningWorm
Clinton was always favoured to win, and only an outlier poll or two had Obama in the lead in states like California. NY and NJ weren’t in contention, at least I don’t recall anyone seriously claiming he could win them.
Instead, the best Obama could do in those states was hold close enough not to get walloped with a tide of delegates, so it was really Clinton’s to lose. Considering that he is now picking up many more states and with bigger margins and wider demographics is telling for Clinton.
Her firewall states may actually be too late, too little, or both.
Pass the popcorn! LOL
506 TurningWorm “Rain, do you agree with Mark Penn that Hillary Clinton confounded pollsters and the chattering classes with her Super Tuesday results?”
.
No, don’t agree with Marky on much, he’s a strategist – any pollie has one or more of them, like listening to any staffer, adviser, minder, whatever you call it, its covered in biases and half-truths. They are just doing their job, and thats fair enough, but I dont buy much of it.
.
Then again, I dont understand US polls, (let alone make a judgement call on anyone’s interpretation), they seem to end up deviating from reality far more than ours do, and fluctuate far more widely. I remember the 2004 election year, when John Kerry for yonks had been something like 12-16 points over Bush on all major polls right up to Nov election day, and everybody had been predicting a comfotable Kerry win for most of the year. But – It just didnt happen on election day.
.
Thats a long-winded way of saying I dont feel qualified to comment one way or t’other on that score:)
.
As for the primary results so far, I’m reserving my judgement until either all are in, if, when or how Clinton responds, and the remaining superdelegates declare.
Her results aren’t that bad, considering which specific states she has taken.
.
I keep feeling there is such a large difference and enormous complexity in the ways each state does their delegate allocations, and some states are far more important to election winnability, than others (some states primaries I think are useless to election winnability, and would be excluded from my consideration of the candidates ability to win) — and I dont know how the super-delegates think – if the superdelegates are just there to act as tie-breakers, or to just rubber-stamp the popular vote, they wouldn’t need so many, would they?
.
I dont know what is customary or usual in that superdelegate camp, but one blogspot I read said the super-delegates, being long-standing Party officials with several elections past under their experience, are far more knowledgeable on how the Repubs then go into bat for the big one that truly counts, than the general rank-and-file, and were to protect the overall Party’s interest and vote for who they considered to be the one most likely to win against the Republican machine, after all the primary excitement is dead and forgotten – it is only a pre-selection battle after all. That decision may or may not coincide with the popular vote in the primaries in a close contest.
.
So short answer is, I will keep watching how it pans out
I’d be surprised if Hillary concedes before the Mar primaries, at least.
.
KR- I’ve been banging on about this for a while now but I’ll back it up with numbers. Billary’s Giuliani strategy will get her just where it got Rudy. The big states will NOT save her. She cannot keep losing so badly in the small states. Her flogging by the good people of Virginia has ensured that. Back to my “basic arithmetic” argument. In very simple plus and minus numbers for her strategists.
Obama’s win today in Virginia alone won him 22 more delegates than Billary. Here are Obama’s teams very pessimistic figures which predict the big three outcomes.
Lose Ohio by 5%= net loss 5 delegates
Lose Texas by 4%=net loss 9 delegates
Lose Penn by 5%=net loss 8 delegates
5+9+8=22 net loss in the three states Billary’s banking on to save her.
Bottom line: Virginia just gave Obama enough extra delegates to cancel out the wins Billary might get in Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
513
Diogenes
Yep, approximately what I said: too little, too late, or both! LOL
Now, the big question, for extra points (and neatness counts too!), will this ultimately get decided on the convention floor, or will Hillary get the tap on the shoulder beforehand and ‘graciously’ concede. (Although we like to badmouth HRC as flippant humour, I’m sure if she is given no choice, she will go through the motions of being civil to her opponent. Meanwhile, out of the public eye she will morph into the mother monster in Aliens! LOL).
I know crystal ball reading is not your forte, but whaddya reckon Dio?
To get the insider’s mood, here’s Walter Shapiro’s take, (from Salon today):
As one Democratic super delegate, who has endorsed her, put it fatalistically, “I don’t see any strategy, any way that she can pull it out.”
…of course no one will go ‘on the record’ to say it, but can we suspect this is the prevailing opinion?
513
Diogenes
Salon makes it 37 over Clinton from today’s wins. 70 to 33.
Check it here:
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/02/12/election_results/index.html
IMHO there is only one scenario I can see where she could win and that would involve Gore and Edwards endorsing her in a big way before those big primaries in TX and OH and her winning them easily. That’s not going to happen. I think she will not do nearly as well as she’s hoping in those two. She’ll limp past them and wait for PA which is on the 22/4. And that one will be the final nail in the coffin. I think she’ll concede after that one.
Otherwise, her death would come very slowly like Blackadder’s (which he escaped) and involve snails. I don’t think she would want that.
517
Diogenes
Snails????
Hmmm, whatever!
Death by a thousand snails would maybe be preferable to the excruciating torture she’s enduring now: death by delegate deficit!
But essentially, I think your prognosis is close enough in that she’s unlikely to pull a huge victory in either Texas or Ohio, and the gradual attrition will sap her remaining hope.
If the end play is Greek tragedy (and considering the stage on which it is set!), then we must pray that it’s not Medea!
info now on Maryland is consistent with earlier blog on Virginia
Hillary had won States on & before Super Tuesday with a majority of the female vote and this was one of her trumps
Today it disappeared in both a low Afro American Primary Virginia HRC… 39/60 !
and a high Afro American Primary Maryland … HRC 41/55 !
Ditto for young non Afro American without College where she previously dominated this voting block but Virginia HRC… 37/63 ! Maryland HRC….36/60 !
No Stats for DC
The base of her support has collapsed which is fatal (rather than broadened)
I just had to laugh, Camille Paglia launches a cruise missile into Camp Clinton:
The old-guard feminist establishment has also rushed out of cold storage to embrace Hillary Clinton via tremulous manifestoes of gal power that have startlingly exposed the sentimental slackness of thought that made Gloria Steinem and company wear out their welcome in the first place. Hillary’s gonads must be sending out sci-fi rays that paralyze the paleo-feminist mind — because her career, attached to her husband’s flapping coattails, has sure been heavy on striking pious attitudes but ultra-light on concrete achievements.
..whack, thud, boom!!
What does Adam have to say?
521
jen
Nothing to “igonorant loathing lefties”, more’s the pity, coz they could sure use some home truths and some re-education from an expert!
Sorry to prick your trot fantasies for the motley crew remaining on this blog. Hillary according to an Ohio poll released today is ahead in that state 56-39.
Given that Ohio and Texas represent 15% of the total delegates needed to win the delusion that Obama will win is not grounded in fact. And if Hilary hasnt put him away then there is always Penslyvania in April.
Ah, nice, badmouth Cartman again, boy, did we miss him! LOL
Nothing like chucking your own faeces is there ESJ? Didn’t mommy toilet train you properly?
sorry ESj that the onanist is still wanking away
but why do you say that hilary has ohio and texas in the bag?
Is it currently 56/39 ESJ? That’s a massive improvement on where many polls had Obama only a couple of weeks ago. In fact, it’s a 20 point lift! That’s some serious MO!
To address your post, however, I don’t thnk too many have been brave enough to predict an Obama win in TX or OH. On current trends though, it is highly likely that he will close the gap significantly and render the net delegate gain to Hillary quite insignificant.
A 30% lead in November is now a 1% lead.
Ah, tell me again who’s got momentum?
And who is going to win states in three weeks?
The usual piffle from the usual orifice, and look, sidekick’s back to throw snot from behind the big boy again!
Love it! The two little chuckers!
Hypothetical, ESJ – Obama/? vs. McCain/Huckster. Who are you supporting?
Gusface,
Ohio is rustbelt industrial territory. I believe Hilary has all the endorsements there and it is her territory.
The Democrat base in Texas is Hispanic. Despite the results in the Potomac primary (which had small hispanic populations) that hispanic group is opposed to the black caucus in the Democratic Party. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. The hispanics will back Hilary because they do not want the black grouping to be preeminent. Texas is 32% hispanic and 11% black, whereas Virginia is 20% black and Maryland is 27% black.
Given that BHO is winning 90% of the black vote he naturally pushes away the hispanic vote.
William,
Sadly due to the efforts of KR and one or two side kicks most of the regulars have gone. Tis a shame. Respectfully I suggest you revisit my suggestion of a cooler period.
Pancho,
I think McCain would use nukes if president and is a warmonger. Therefore any alternative is preferable.
However I think the Republicans would make mincemeat of Obama. If the Dems were mad enough to give him the nomination he would be the black mcGovern not the black Kennedy. However the whole point of the superdelegates is to stop the wrong candidate getting up.
ESJ-Your heart doesn’t really seem to be in that post. Please refer to my post at 513 to refute the “Ohio and Texas will save us” argument.
And the polls have been about 20% out in Obama’s favour recently.
On a more serious note, we have failed to predict both the Maharishi Mahesh Yogi and Gordon B Hinckley’s passing. It’s been a very poor year for religious leaders. I think Billy Graham will complete the Holy Trinity as his wofe died not long ago and he’s been hospitalised. Grief can be a terrible burden. And then it will be:
Diogenes 2 ESJ 0
yeah, it’s a cryin’ shame that a little toe rag complains that someone calls him a ‘paedophile’ when no one did, and that someone is a ‘plagiarist’ but in fact isn’t!
Ooooh, a cyrin’ shame you just can’t chuck your own sh!t and get away with it!
ooooh yes, a cyrin’ shame ESJ!
oh mother of sweet jesus we are all cryin’ and gnashing our teeth! LOL
ya crack me up!
I seem to recall that the last time you came here William told you pull your head in!
Pity you can’t remember to do it all the time, isn’t it?
cheers ESJ
re your cooler suggestion-great idea but im afraid the sales of kleenex and sao’s would drop dramatically as the resident onanist(yes you kr) would have no grist for his mill
LOFL
LOL Diogenes but faith springs eternal – the Mormons picked an 87 year old as the new prophet?
Check out this link – 92 year old Catholic cardinal who cant read his own speeches.
http://www.fordham.edu/dulles/videos.shtml
Take your point in 513 but – the superdelegates can push it one way or another. Note McCain in his victory speech has already started attacking Obama as a tax and spend liberal. If the supers think he cant win they will shaft him regardless of whether or not he or Hilary are a couple of delegates in front – they could for example seat Florida and do as exactly as you suggest get a few big names to come out with for the good of the party endorsements.
Oh well time to leave the trotfest I see (532)!
Considering their length and the mega bucks involved, it’s surprising how amateurish the American campaigns seem to be.
Rudy’s was a real misconcieved shocker, and Hillary’s doesn’t seem to have had much rhyme or reason behind it either, even allowing that initially many of her team would have thought she only had to keep on breathing to get the nomination.
Same goes with the polling, especially the sample sizes.
Good discussion on delegate position here.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/12/is_fineman_right/
Seeing I’ve been having such luck (or otherwise) with my bets so far, I betcha Obama becomes 44th president, carrying purple states in a reverse Reagan wash of goodwill. He has won none of the Democratic locks – they have all been Clinton – which will fall into line when he is the nominee, and has interested independents. Further Clinton’s attacks have gained no traction, and Obama has manuevered around or confronted them all. The GOP just doesn’t have the goodwill or popular sentiment at the moment to be able to carry a highly negative campaign against a candidate who is genuinely admired. But it’s good to see you (begrudgingly) on the right team
ESJ- Obama beat Billary today amongst the Latino population in both Virginia and Maryland. There’s hardly a demographic she won in. And I’m sure you know those facts…
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows John McCain (R) leading Hillary Clinton (D) by a statistically insignificant single percentage point, 45% to 44%. Barack Obama (D) leads McCain 44% to 40%
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Senator Hillary Clinton currently earns 44% of the vote while Barack Obama attracts 42% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters
Now, where were we before being so rudely interrupted…??? LOL
534 ESJ- My reading is that Billary is actually going to spend more money than Obama. She is much more committed to the two biggest things blowing out the US Federal deficit than Obama, ie continuing a horrendously expensive war and having “universal health cover”. Those are two very big ticket items. Obama’s health plan is more conservative and he’ll save heaps on the Iraq war. Lots of Repugs are saying they’d prefer him to Billary because he’s closer to their side economically.
‘trotfest’?
Oh boy, ESJ must be 100 hundred years old!
Put up your hand if you can remember ever seeing a Trotskyite!
If that’s the best ‘insult’ he can come up with we should all be feeling sorry for him, (not).
But really, a ‘trotfest’? That’s hysterically funny, seeing as we are pouring over the results of a US election process. Come on ESJ, come back and explain what any of this has to do with Leon Trotsky!
Bet you can’t.
What a pathetic joke.
kr
refer to rain@319,though onanisn does give one extremely short term memory and of course intelligence
LOFL
Diogenes the Hispanic population of Maryland is 6%. The question is also how established the Hispanic population is, my suspicion is that the Texas and California hispanic populations are very very different to the Maryland/Virginia hispanic populations.
537
steve
looks like the Clinton machine is heading for disaster country, no matter how much pressure they apply to the Supers.
I thought this post sums it up well:
It’s approximately true, although the DNC chair appoints a good chunk of the members. But it’s also irrelevant. Either candidate will have enough votes on the committee to issue a minority report and force a floor fight, if they’re unhappy with the committee’s vote. When it goes to the floor, if seating FL and MI would actually make the difference, it becomes a proxy vote for the nomination. If Obama would win without them, they won’t be seated. If he wins anyway, they’ll seat them so as not to give offense. And if HRC has the lead, she’ll seat them, but she won’t need them. Any which way, it’s a non-issue in determining the outcome.
543
gusface
Are you seriously attempting to be funny, or do you always dribble out of the side of your mouth like that?
Because the one-handed enterprise of which you speak:
“onanisn does give one extremely short term memory and of course intelligence”
…does not appear to have actually given you any intelligence that we can determine.
Trotfest?
Hello, Mr Trotfest, can you ‘please explain’?
ESJ- You utter utter bastard! I just watched those Dulles speeches. Look at the one from April 17, 2007 and compare it with the November 7, 2007 one. There is an enormous change in his speech patterns. Those changes only occur with a brainstem stroke. It’s only a matter of time IMHO. I think you’ll be drawing the next blood! (so to speak)
On the Hispanic vote, they seem to have seen what the Clinton’s have done to the blacks after voting for them and I don’t think they like it.
kr
thanks for proving my point
BTW got any original thoughts rattling away there or just your usual plagiarising of blogs/posters
ESJ
mein goott i thought glen was the depths of cretinism but this juvenille masquerading as a adult surely needs a bit of re-education,but hey when his cojones drop maybe he can speak as an individual,
i live in hope that he matures into someone who is nice to know
LOFL
Folks! You’re gonna be made to address each other through the speaker shortly.
I expect Barack Obama to be the next President of the United States.
However, I would have much preferred the great beacon of truth and liberty, Ron Paul.
How about playing the ball and not the man? Enjoy the different viewpoints but not the nasty personal stuff.
Am sure that most of us are lurking and too busy to write…it is an addictive site and difficult to ignore.
My Obama bet on Sportingbet ( lodged when Maxine won) looks reasonably….never having bet before, but inspired by PB’s, have put my foot in the water.
‘reasonably promising’
534
ESJ: “…the superdelegates can push it one way or another…. If the supers think he cant win they will shaft him regardless of whether or not he or Hilary are a couple of delegates in front.”
Thanks for that ESJ,
FWIW I agree – with so much at stake, the Dem Party would be incredibly stupid if they underestimate the Republican opposition, and just do a rubber-stamp, no matter how popular Obama is with the rank-and-file. Super-delegates are key and will go for who can win, and spin whatever they need to, in order to make it happen, as you said : “for the good of the Party”.
.
While some super-delegates are coming out with public statements, there are still several hundred remaining neutral and low-profile. Even with the latest Obama delegate wins in the primaries, both Obama and Clinton are a long way from the 2,025 needed to win the nomination.
.
I first thought Obama wouldn’t be the best to stand up to the Repub machine when in full election mode, during the 3-way Democrat debate, when Edwards quietly made mince-meat of him, and made him look like Mark Latham on a really bad hair day. The guy couldn’t think on his feet, he takes bait, and gets rattled easily. And this was in a “Friendly Fire” debate between party colleagues.
.
His classic blooper on the credit card interest rate question had me in stitches!
.
megan
exacta mundo
i have enjoyed PB and its diversity of opinion and the intellectual bouts it can inspire
BUT when one individual through demagoguery and intimidation chases opposing viewpoints and paradigms from the field i am honour bound to defend the underdog/oppressed from such invective and arsehattery (comes from recently dealing with “repression”)
ps i genuinely miss the opportunity to debate in a reasonable manner with divergent views,so if someone/group dominates then my “fair go” sensor goes haywire”
bit like when the rightards were spinning their bullshit in J-Ho’s day
Kirribilli and gusface -
you both bring a lot to this site.
now cut the crap.
Rain,
given how well Obama is going and that you have resrvations about his ability to fulfill the role of POTUS, would you support a republican in preference to him if he wins the nomination?
I ask as i am curious about what Hillary supporters might do in the face of a seemingly inevitable defeat.
So your cause was entirely noble, Gusface?
FG
no cause is noble-you should know that,but the pursuit of freedom in all its forms is close enough for me
Jen
merely drawing my “line in the sand” thats all
Eddy sooks it at 529:
For a trained Historian, Eddy, you’re an awful wuss. Melancholy doesn’t rest well with you, does it?
The craic of the last two Sep threads has been scintillating, im(inordinately)ho. Historical even.
If only Dr. Carr would pop in for a Special Guest Appearance on The Bludger to amplify and augment his assertions that Billary is a shoo-in for Ohio and Texas. My how that man has a head for figures. He’ll have all us Obi boosters sorted in a jiffy. No worries!
Evening all.
Have been a bit busy the last few days, only just caught up on all the news and polls.
Seems pretty clear to me now that March 4 is the last great stand. If Clinton wins, we go to a brokered convention, barring exceptional circumstances. If Obama can win a state and neutralise the day, then we take a step closer to the endgame.
Of course having said that, after March 4 the longer this drags out the weaker his position becomes. IMO Huckabee here is doing the GOP a lot of damage, as it could be using these three weeks to lay the groundwork for a unified team approach. As it is, he and McCain are stuck poking sticks at each other until Huckabee finally topples off the cliff. Still, that’s just my opinion
Back to the Dem race – I saw an Ohio poll which had Clinton up 56-38 the other day. I have little doubt that will narrow as Obama enters the state, although it probably will not be enough to win. Anybody hearing news from Texas? That was only a 10 point gap two weeks ago, and Obama has been coasting it since then.
This is without doubt going to be an absolutely riveting three weeks. Come March 4, the Democrat picture will have cleared up and McCain will have picked up that magic number of delegates (or be very close to it.) Until then…
Entirely noble! Oh, so incredible, such nobility! What a joke!
Tell you what jen, if nobody chucks their own sh!t at me I promise not to throw it right back! LOL
It’s always the same offenders, serial abusers, and snide little creeps that always happily start it and then run to mommy when they get caught doing it.
Now, what was Williams’ word for ESJ’s crumby behaviour…oh, yes, that’s right “unconscionable”!
Now, where were we…?
kr
arsehattery exemplified
god your an easy target
quick provide some cut and paste to prove your sophistry
LOFL
Take it outside fellas.
EC
perhaps Dr Carr is awaiting an apology for the character assasination orchestrated against his (sometime) good self
IMHFO
gusface -
I’m sure the good doctor is tougher than that. He gives as good as he gets.
Hey KR,
Seeing as you are the big man ready to slander when you know people are not on the blog to defend themselves, here is a little proposition where you can prove the existence of your rumoured to be missing cojones and your obvious expertise in American politics.
Promise to leave this blog FOREVER if Obama loses Texas and Ohio. If Obama wins both I am happy to make the same pledge.
Fair proposition I think! What say you?
ESJ
back in your box ,this aint about leaving its about encouraging AND accepting alternate views
ps good (sort of) to see you back
Oh gusface it was an easy proposition to put old yeller was never going to take it up.
Night all.
Did someone mention Trotsky? http://www.socialistworker.org/2008-1/662/662_02_Obama.shtml
But of course Ron Paul quoted Trotsky recently.
I may be stupid (don’t answer) but I’m not quite keeping up with those who think Obama is home and hosed for the nomination.
According to the (presumably at least vaguely reliable) Associated Press delegate count, Obama currently leads 1,223 to 1,198 (source: nytimes.com). That seems to include all the pledged delegates, their best guess at the State-specific unpledged delegates, and the super-delegates who have indicated a firm preference.
Now in the next four weeks there are two big primaries (Ohio and Texas with a total of 389 delegates) and a few small/medium ones (eg Wisconsin) with a total of 234 delegates. That’s all done by March 11.
Assume that Obama gets 50% of the delegates from the big two, and 65% of the delegates from the rest. That amounts to a net gain of 30% of 234, ie 71 delegates, and an overall lead of 96 (1,570 to 1,474). Can’t be too precise (apart from anything else, there is no sole source of truth when it comes to delegate counts), but the situation would be something like what I have described.
Clinton would need 56% of the remaining delegates (a group which I’m pretty sure includes a lot of super-delegates) to win from there.
Now comes the rub. There is then six weeks till the next event (Pennsylvania on April 22). My view is that a lot of Obama’s momentum could stall in that time – and he would get attacked by the Clintons mercilessly (not to mention by McCain, who made a reasonably adept stab at it tonight with his acceptance speech).
I could be wrong. Hillary could give up (though I doubt this will come easily). She could run out of money (I have no way to tell how likely this is).
And of course, it’s possible, the way things are going, that Obama could get say 60% of the delegates from the big two. In which case (if the rest went his way 65/35) the Obama lead would be 173 at March 11, and Clinton would need a daunting 60% of the remainder.
Conclusion: Clinton is in deep trouble, but I’m not calling it for Obama yet.
#523
Edward StJohn said:
I’ve been playing around with my numbers on this and I just don’t see how Hillary can win. In numbers she is not going to recapture ground on pledged delegates. Her best scenario is to minimise the loss and play the Michigan/Florida seating game (and IMO thats dangerous territory unless your in a defacto winning position). Following the Maine win Obama was ahead on pledged delegates by 87. The DC/Maryland/Virginia race brings into play another 168 pledged delegates and on a conservative calculation Obama is picking up 108 and Clinton 60. That’s a 48 delegate addition to the Obama lead bringing him to a 135 lead. Now – there are 1075 delegates left in play. To break even (neck and neck) Obama has to win 470 delegates and Clinton has to win 605 delegates but my numbers are suggesting that everything from here on is neck and neck on a Obama worst case scenario. A more likely result is Obama chipping away and progressively increasing the pledged delegate lead. Even the Clinton firewall doesn not stand up – the best she can hope for is a 20 delegate advantage knocking the lead back to 105 in Obama’s favour – and from there you don’t need a degree to figure out who will be winning subsequent rounds.
davidoff,
Where did you get your current delegate count from?
Jen @ 556 – I think it will vary, I would see Clinton supporters follow Obama, despite their disappointment, but not in reverse. They are mostly hard Dem Party faithful voters. Edwards (and other also-rans) supporters, I see as being split, but far more towards Clinton, regardless of whether Edwards comes out in support of Obama or not and gives him his Delegates. Hard Dem voters will continue to vote Party, no matter how much they might whinge about it.
.
Just like rusted-on Labor voters in Oz, voting for Mark Latham knowing full well that he was unelectable, and gritting teeth for a likely embarrassing defeat (again).
.
Obama is doing very well in popular vote, sure – but his supporters are as rabidly anti-Clinton as the Repugs are. If he loses the nomination, they will opt out altogether and not vote at all if they are Dems, the Independents/ ’soft’ Repugs could swing because they hate Clinton, far more than they dislike Repubs.
.
I could even see Obama ( in the highly unlikely event, the trend turns against him) threatening to turn independent and taking his voters with him, forcing the Dem Party’s hand. He is pretty much playing his campaign as an Independent anyway, but how the Dem Party heavies see that, ie as a good or bad thing for the Party, I don’t know. Possibly building up to a whopper of an internal Party faction-fight – which IMHO is bad thing this close to an election.
.
Obama’s admittedly wide popular support is coming from all over, but especially from non-core Dems, and swingers, which can be very risky – as they may not continue that support come election day. They might do like some did here In Oz, in opinion polls, ohhh… yer I will never vote Howard/Liberal again, I really like that Rudd guy, but when it came to the crunch, they voted the way they always did!! Changing their minds at the last minute, fickle bunch, here today, gone tomorrow, and if the Repubs do oil their machine into high gear, that support for Obama could disappear overnight.
.
Democracy is an excellent system, but it has one fatal flaw. The majority can be wrong, dead wrong. The majority can be fooled by bells and whistles, even beautifully and positively spun dog-whistles. It shouldn’t be forgotten that Hitler was a very popular guy (for awhile), and won elections on majority vote.
.
569
Robert Bollard
Ironic really, as that pretty much sums up the differences between the two Dem candidate’s campaigns. And as for the power of symbolism, well, we got to see a bit of that today, didn’t we?
In much the same way I think Obama is doing pretty well drawing on that yearning for something different, something transcendent, and of course he’s got the personal charisma to make it real. Clinton is quite pedesterian by comparison, good, but nowhere near being a natural.
If, at the end of this process, they are neck and neck, and the Supers have to line up to be counted, then the whole question of whether they want a re-run of the Clintons or someone who will not be constantly settling old scores will emerge.
The ’smoke filled room’ scenario is getting closer by the week!
Do not see either Ohio or Texas saving Hillary as there will be insufficent net votes for her
the Ohio Poll of 56/39 seems arogue Poll
looking at the poll breakp it assumes Hillary
…Hillary :white voters 62/32
…Obama black votes 75/25
believe both of these breakups are unrealistic given obama’s ‘white’ vote split in EVERY primary since Feb 1 and his black vote since Super Tuesday
Expect the result to be close favouring hillary
IF Texas latino’s voted as per California latino’s Hillary may not get massaced but the latest Poll 2 weeks ago only had Hillary with a 10 point lead which likely has been eroded
Expect Obama to draw or win Texas narrowly
Kr
truce
im sorry if i have offended you and promise(for at least a week-finding a job takes a lot of time you know)to not attack or belittle you
i truly do value your posts (ok sometimes) just lets all try and raise the standard
and discontinue personal degradation
ps re the Big O i truly would like him to win but my gut says the Dem machine
and the general public just wont cop it
though if im wrong im still gunna be happy
566
Edward StJohn
“Seeing as you are the big man ready to slander when you know people are not on the blog to defend themselves”
…that’s a bit rich, isn’t it? Coming from you?
Let’s recap what you said:
that I called you a ‘paedophile’…ah, in fact I did not.
that I had plagiarised some article I had never read….once again wrong!
And tonight you barge in here and chuck your own faeces around as per usual.
I’ll say it again, you are a serial abuser. Snide, grubby, and dishonest.
Oh, just to add, for all their numerous faults, the Clintons are Dem through-and-through, and most of their support is from the core Party faithful.
.
While the Clinton voters (and Edwards and others also-rans) will mostly vote Party-Line for Obama, despite their misgivings on the Big Day, they may well opt out of the election campaigning itself. These are the life-long Party faithful ground-troops, out there fund-raising, door-knocking etc, which is often critical to winning those important swing-states, like Florida, so their individual votes might still count, but their energy and effort wont be winning any others to the cause in those critical last 8 weeks of campaigning.
.
I never did go to private school but I imagine reading Eddie’s posts are the closest I’ll come to seeing a prefect in action.
e-thuggin’, lawl
Ron,
I think she only has to draw Ohio and Texas to still be in it. My post at 570 sums up my views.
When push comes to shove, I think the Clintons will get a lot more super-delegates than Obama, if it’s close.
#572
Its like a secret Italian recipe. Basically its a combinbation of CNN’s (which take about 2-3 weeks to resolve to useful numbers); Obama site counts; comments on the Clinton site; NYT times (but they don’t have Maine and other in the totals in place yet), .. basically you need to build your own spreadsheet and pump in the numbers as things happen. I know – its not exactly algorithmic – but its my best shot – as Captain Barbossa said the code is more what you’d call ‘guidelines’ than actual rules.
Ohio looms as the most important due to bragging rights. Ohio will be the most important red state to the democrats in November. And all card carrying democrats know it. It is also important to remember the huge size of super delegates yet to choose sides.
For the same reason as Ohio the Virginia primary was a huge victory for Obama. Due to demographic change it is the next most important state for the democrats after Ohio because of its size/chances of winning. Obama has also won Iowa, Colorado but are largely dismissed as they were caucuses. He also won Missouri but only by a very small amount but is still a notch in his belt as it is considered a bellwether.
Hillary should make Wisconsin a priority as it is the most marginal democrat state a few thousand votes the other way could see it turn red. The winner here will dramatically increase their standing in the eyes of democrats.
It should also be remembered that the may 6 elections in North Carolina/Indiana could easily undo the progress Hillary could potentially make in Ohio/Texas.
Dyno,
I agree with your statistical numbers, however what needs to be looked at is the bigger picture. Let’s assume that March 4 ends in a tie, a state each to Obama and Clinton, and a split in delegates
On March 5, it is more than likely the Republican Party will have an informal nominee – McCain will probably have the votes, but if not you suspect Huckabee won’t fight on beyond that point because his point will have been made.
Look at the trend – Obama had won, say, 10 in a row before March, nudging ahead nationally, and had neutralised March 4, considered unthinkable a month before. He has more delegates, more states won, more momentum.
He will have money pouring into his coffers, while donors will be fleeing the Clinton ship – after all, what can she offer? With that comes the endorsements, and the sense of inevitability. With the Republican nomination sewn up, HRC suddenly looks like the candidate holding her party back. Once you get that tag, it is pretty much impossible to shake and will kill off a few more points.
Democratic bigshots will then close ranks around Obama, and the game plays itself out. In the end, without money you are finished. What donor would want to come on board the Clinton camp in those circumstances?
All this is hypothetical, but it’s why a lot of reports are playing out stating she must win March 4 to stem the tide. As I said before, if she does this then suddenly Obama is on the back foot, because pressure will start to mount for him to take a VP deal, the longer it drags out the worse it will get for him for the reasons you stated – superdelegates will shift to the tried and tested candidate who they at least know what they can expect from.
Food for thought?
Yep – I agree.
Max, davidoff, Scotty, valid points all.
Can’t wait for the next contest, in fact.
Dyno , the problem with every site is its incomplete
further the allocation of delegates is slow so most sites are making estimations
You are right to say Obama’s TOTAL delegate lead is not huge
but his State lead of 26 10 10 after next weekend leaves Hillary with a credibility problem of lack of widespread support ?
even the Superdelegate figures vary as to how many each has won and even vary how many are left !
most agree approx Hillary 226/136 with a MX of 434 uncommitted
#588
IMO superdelegates are not an issue until we get to the post Ohio/Texas goalpost. Then we deal with potential manipulation of the process and just think about the media message that this generate. The superdelegate question is a double-edged sword and I figure that while some band aides will be passed around within party members – I also figure that we will see an emerging battle between the party and (a) character of the nominee, and (b) party process and political integrity – and I think character will carry the day.
I’m calling Texas for Obama.
And Ohio 54/46 for Clinton.
hey, davidoff-
re: women getting into obama now.. if you think that link you put up was bad, look at this:
http://barackobamaissexy.wordpress.com
KR, yes you are a liar,
You deny calling me a paedophile, you called me a molester and ridiculously try to claim that this was a metaphor rather than name-calling. I think the inference was entirely clear and as I recall you subsequently did it again. Only when it became politic for you to deny it did you.
Secondly whether you are an actual plagiarist or not – it is quite clear from your posts (as others have commented on) are largely recitation of others comments and thoughts.
Thirdly you seem quite keen to dish out insult and abuse but also hide behind William’s moderating. In my experience you also seem to dish out when people are not present but hide behind feigned indignation and monitoring when you are properly smacked down.
That’s not name calling its calling you out.
I am sorry if that hurts but its fact and no doubt those who have observed your self-indulgent and weasle behaviour would agree with me.
WB, there are too many E=MC2 on this blog where E = Ego. It’s time these infants grow up and conduct some intelligent debate rather than showing mine is bigger than yours.
Ron, davidoff,
I must admit I am unclear as to how committed a “committed” super-delegate really is. Various theories:
1. Some people say, as I think you do, davidoff, that they really don’t matter at this point – they’ll all re-assess once Obama’s lead in elected delegates becomes overwhelming. On this theory Clinton’s current lead in super-delegates is irrelevant and they should be excluded from calculations at this point.
2. Others say that it’s rare for a publicly declared super-delegate to change their mind – I understand this to be the rationale behind the Associated Press count. This is what my calcs are based on. On this theory the Clintons’ current lead in super-delegates still counts, but the later declaring super-delegates will presumably favour Obama, the way things are going.
3. Others say that the Clintons will sew up the vast majority of the super-delegates no matter what happens. Establishment solidarity and all that. I don’t agree with this, but if it were to be proved true, then Obama is probably still around 150-200 behind.
I guess the difficulty also is that the whole super-delegate structure hasn’t been tested very much before this year.
A new day and an old personal axe to grind…how often do we have to hear about it?
Feels too much like stirring the possum from where I sit!
594
Good post,Dyno.
Inclined to agree.
Obama on fair-trade in Wisconsin, with a swipe at Clinton economics:
‘”We are not standing on the brink of recession due to forces beyond our control. The fallout from the housing crisis that’s cost jobs and wiped out savings was not an inevitable part of the business cycle. It was a failure of leadership and imagination in Washington – the culmination of decades of decisions that were made or put off without regard to the realities of a global economy and the growing inequality it’s produced,” Obama told workers at the General Motors Assembly Plant in the southern Wisconsin city. “It’s a Washington where decades of trade deals like NAFTA and China have been signed with plenty of protections for corporations and their profits, but none for our environment or our workers who’ve seen factories shut their doors and millions of jobs disappear; workers whose right to organize and unionize has been under assault for the last eight years,”
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/thebeat?pid=284664
Megan,
Yes, it will really be fascinating (if say Clinton does ok in Ohio and Texas) to watch the super-delegate machinations in the period up to the Pennsylvania contest on April 22!
I suspect that your average super-delegate (for example, a member of Congress, or a State Governor) won’t miss out in the pork barrelling department. Conversations like “I’m sure I could commit to vote for you, if only I didn’t have to spend so much time worrying about where the funding was coming from for that new project in my State …”
595
Megan
Totally agree.
It’s just more of the same badmouth bullyboy BS.
597
Pancho
ha, ya beat me to it!
I think the argument about a ‘failure in Washington’ is going to get louder and louder as the economic mess spreads.
McCain will be hard pressed to defend the current administration on economics, and for that matter Iraq, where 60% consistently say they want the troops out.
Last night one of the super delegates was on Colbert and she basically said that one option was for the Supers to go with whoever had rounded up the most delegates, since that’s what ‘democracy’, with a small ‘d’ is all about.
You’d have to expect that going against the popular expression of the voters would invite civil war in the party and accusations of a ‘fix’. It would taint the nominee and likely jeopardise the general election.
I cannot see this as being desirable, so my hunch is that they’ll have to go in this direction. Of course this does not address Florida and Michigan, but technically, they are ’spoiled’ results, and should not have any bearing on the final count unless they hold them again.
Messy, isn’t it? Didn’t Rumsfeld say something about democracy being ‘messy’? LOL
The Obama speech could also be seen as a pitch to Edwards, running with his agenda in an attempt to get his nod.
I agree that the superdelegates will fall into line with whoever is ahead, but this race contains what seem to be a unique set of circumstances, in 2 genuinely popular and capable candidates, a contest which could run until the convention, and the Florida and Michigan messes.
The problem is that both candidates could claim the lead at the convention and cry foul if they lost out. And Clinton and Mark Penn have made clear that they will kick and scream if the DNC keeps its word on excluding Florida and Michigan. I see no option but to rehold the votes as smaller caucuses. Again Clinton will be up in arms but this will hurt her more. Then Obama will pull away and the superdelegates who have wanted him all along will fall into line.
See below running tally on superdelegates.
http://www.politico.com/superdelegates/
You can see from the list that contrary to the theory that the supers must follow the popular vote that basically the largest numbers of supers are from large states won by Hilary, eg California with 29 uncommitted supers (which includes one who is Hilary’s sister in law – wonder how she will vote) another is the speaker of the house. Ultimately if people like Pelosi come out against Obama that would sink him particularly if the Establishment comes out as a bloc at the right time – conversely the same will happen to Hilary where she to lose Texas/Ohio.
Also note supers from Michigan and Florida are also excluded as well as those states general delegates.
I don’t think Pelosi will either endorse nor sink a candidate. And I don’t think that Edwards, whoever he endorsed would do so, nor even Gore, if he came out for Obama. These are pieces of the puzzle, and the majority are falling to Obama. The biggest impact of the three, if any came about, would have to be Gore’s, and there is no way he will be supporting Clinton.
Clinton needs to win, and probably handsomely, in Texas and Ohio to keep going, as she’ll be a way behind at that stage in delegates and more importantly money. I certainly don’t think it’s over – this is another twist in a race that has been called over several times each way so far – but I would much rather be in Obama’s camp at the moment.
Today is the first time that Obama is not behind Clinton in the national polls for winning the nomination.
The RCP average has been closing steadily, and it’s now a dead heat, with Obama just 0.3% ahead.
Now that, ladies and gentleman, is what you call a ‘narrowing’! LOL
Clinton is running a TV ad in Wisconsin:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzGbj_ERlJ0
…basically, Obama won’t debate me about ‘my health plan’ or mortgage rescue plan, he’d rather give speeches.
Essentially, she wants to scrap, because the voters have been over this stuff in great detail. The real issue is about perception of character, and Hillary wants to score some points face to face.
Now, will he pick up the guantlet, or will he flick her away?
#594
Dyno
In the situation that we have two candidates standing at the end and one candidates has:
- the most states (symbolic)
- the most votes (symbolic)
- and the most pledged delegates (the only thing the matters)
- and the
Then, if the pledged delegate count is less than 2,025 (which is all but given) then superdelegate opinions come into play. As of today Clinton has 232 and Obama has 146 superdelegates that have declared themselves one way or another – and a further 339 remain undeclared.
If I take my Obama worst-case scenario projections we would end up with the following Obama/Clinton count:
pledged: 1677/1570
super: 146/232
total: 1823/1802
And from here – the 339 unpledged delegates make their respective decisions taking into account that this will be the most closely watched political event in recent history, the will of the people will be clear (more votes, more states, more pledged), and throw into this the fact that the majority of superdelegates will be facing their respective electorates in the next couple of years, and that this is a worst-case scenario – I think we have a winner on our hands. However – if anyone can come up with numbers demonstrating a Clinton victory I would be real interested in seeing them.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jerryholbert;_ylt=AlKsaimbwr5plWBn9ric42Ld.sgF
(You’re not a kid anymore)
When people ask of me,
What would you like to be
Now that your not a kid anymore.
(You’re not a kid anymore)
I know just what to say,
I answer right away,
Theres just one thing I’ve been wishing for…
I want to be Obi’s girl
I want to be Obi’s girl,
That’s the most important thing to me…
And if I was Obi’s girl,
If I was Obi’s girl,
What a faithful thankful girl I’d be.
Each night I sit at home,
Hoping that he will phone,
But I know Obi has someone else
Still in my heart I pray
There soon will come the day
That I will have him all to myself…
I want to be Obi’s girl
I want to be Ob’s girl,
That’s the most important thing to me…
And if I was Obi’s girl,
If I was Obi’s girl,
What a faithful thankful girl I’d be.
What a faithful thankful girl I’d beeeee.
(Original lyrics by Kent Westbury 1963, Obi=Bobby)
I agree the race is up for grabs and that demographics are better for Hillary in Ohio & Texas, but voters do shift regardless of demographics.
McCain and Obama have run somewhat similar campaigns both downplaying specific policy. But I see it as easier for Obama to change tack in an election campaign, inspirational law prof to policy wonk, he can run policy that voters like, McCain will find it harder to focus on policy because it’s just not his thing. His election campaign will be him striking war hero poses + the party raving about ’socialized medicine’ (=Lib’s ‘trade union officials’ bogey). Voters want solutions and McCain has none, some of the neo-conservatives are interested in domestic policy: Frum, Gearson, Douthat but their voices will not be heard.
594
Dyno Says:
February 14th, 2008 at 7:51 am
Ron, davidoff,
I must admit I am unclear as to how committed a “committed” super-delegate really is
Dyno yes it is confusing but the Media can not even agree on the number “publicly” committed
Superdelegate Comparison by Candidate
………DCW CNN CBS AP NYT NBC
Clinton 232 234 210 242 204 blank !
Obama 146 156 141 160 99 blank !
There are also discrepancies re how many Superdelegates there will be ,
with 796 being the most preferred grand total
Clinton needs to win Texans and Ohio something like 60:40 to even keep close, and her campaign has already stated they plan to rely on superdelegates to get the nom.
Glad to see she’s putting her party first!
Just for reference the superdelegate counts I’m using are from the Democratic Convention Watch (DCW).
An excellent article about what’s going on inside “Hillaryland”, from someone who’s followed it closely:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200802u/patti-solis-doyle
…broadly, Hillary’s biggest mistake is that she’s just like GWBush in that she rewards loyalty over competence, and doesn’t see the damage until it’s way too late.
Interesting.
Forget Hillary’s sister-in-law.
Her Husband is a Super Delegate!!!!!!
614
Rates Analyst
Which reminds me of a slightly tastelss joke about the Super Delegates finally giving it to Obama by one vote.
Bill Clinton cuts a deal with Obama for first pickin’s on the interns!
Ta boom!!
(I think it was Walter Shapiro, but whoever it was, they sure got in a zinger with that one! LOL)
Republicans doom and gloom.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/02/13/republicans_face_pessimism_and_gloom.html
An interesting article digging into the darker side of superdelegate loyalty, concluding with comments from inside Camp Clinton:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap_campaignplus/on_deadline_clinton
617
davidoff
which is where Hillay’s concession will come from
behind 10 to 26 on States ,
none of the 400 genuine Superdelegates will be comfortable giving Hillary their vote either due to Obama as the massive moral State victory lead
and/or the continued Primary battle is not helping the Party against the real enemy the Repugs
McFlipflop votes for torture.
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/02/13/mccain-waterboarding-fail/
619
steve
Oh, McCain, you’ve done it again:
John McCain: He was against waterboarding before he was for it.
…classic. All tough on ‘principles’ until he needs to hang tough for the neocon loopy right and god is on our side nutters.
Typical.
OK, Clinton’s giving the signal that she’s got her back to the wall and will now do anything to claw her way back:
With every delegate precious, Mrs. Clinton’s advisers also made it clear that they were prepared to take a number of potentially incendiary steps to build up Mrs. Clinton’s count. Top among these, her aides said, is pressing for Democrats to seat the disputed delegations from Florida and Michigan, who held their primaries in January in defiance of a Democratic Party rules.
Mrs. Clinton won more votes than Mr. Obama in both states, though both candidates technically abided by pledges not to campaign actively there.
Mr. Obama’s aides reiterated their opposition to allowing Mrs. Clinton to claim a proportional share of the delegates from the voting in those states. The prospect of a fight over seating the Florida and Michigan delegations has already exposed deep divisions within the party.
NYTImes
…that’s going to win her lots of favourable press too! LOL
I thought waterboarding wasn’t torture – more the art of Gentle Persuasion.
Ah nice to see the pollers are starting to do some more state by state match ups once more for the general election.
Rasmussen has a nice poll from Colorada. Obama 46% to McCain 39% a very impressive lead. McCain 49% to Clinton 35% not so much.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/colorado_2008_presidential_election
McCain appears to still be leading them both in in Missouri.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/missouri_2008_presidential_election
On the issue of superdelegates, this article is interesting in giving some back-story and history to why they were set up in the first place, they were meant to be independent and not just be a “rubber-stamp”.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lanny-davis/the-superdelegates-alw_b_86567.html
I said it before, Hillary and Obama will end up dead heat, 50 pledged delegates either way.
So let conduct a primary among the Superdelegates, winner takes all.
BTW: If the Dems has stuck to winner takes all, Hillary would be about 1300 and Obama 1100 of the PD as now.
Which corporate entity would want Downer?
The guy who is proud that the AWB commission didn’t find him criminally culpable but merely grossly negligent.
I await a more indepth inquiry once Rudd has had a few months of fixing Howard’s more stupid errors.
Wrong thread, pardon me.
Here’s another on super-delegates and delegates:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/13/everything-youve-ever-wa_n_86335.html
Rain at 624 -
I find this article extremely ironic, when the author who supports Hillary says
“Don’t change the rules in the middle of the game or, more accurately, don’t game the rules to change the outcome. ”
Whereas he does not castigate Hillary, for accepting the DNC’s decision on Michigan and Florida, signing a pledge not to campaign, and then deciding she wants the rules changed in the middle of the game.
625 – The Finnigans
You should look at Davidoff’s calculations.
For Hillary to even come close on pledged delegates she has to start winning approximately 55%-60% of all states to come.
Its not going to happen.
asanque, my reading said neither “officially” campaigned in Florida, but if you want to get picky on detail, Obama sent an e-mail campaign flyer (or similar) BEFORE the primary in Florida closed. Hillary showed up AFTER the primary had closed, and therefore was not officially campaigning, but just visiting.
Rain at 631 – I don’t believe that is accurate.
What about we see who can find the correct information first.
My belief ist hat Hillary showed up for ‘campaign fundraisers’ or close to campaigning prior to the primary closing.
I haven’t heard anything about any e-mail campaign flyer.
Rain: This article probably sums it up best.
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080128/NEWS/801280404/1017/NEWS0501
Regardless of whether this constituted campaigning for Hillary.
Which it would seem clear that she was.
She is clearly breaking it by trying to get the Florida and Michigan candidates reinstated.
This is ‘dirty tactics’ at its dirtiest.
Well, well, well. This interesting from the link at #628:
Do pledged delegates have to vote a certain way? Can they change their minds?
According to the DNC, “this is one of the biggest myths of the delegate selection process. Delegates are NOT bound to vote for the candidate they are pledged to at the Convention or on the first ballot.” Delegates sign a pledge of support, but there is no rule requiring them to honor that pledge”.
So the argument that if Obama has more PDs than Hillary, then the SDs should pick Obama is absolutely bunkum.
This strengthen my argument that “So let conduct a primary among the Superdelegates, winner takes all”
635 – The Finnigans
The argument goes, that the democratic populace select the delegates in a democratic process. Thus, superdelegates should respect that process.
Your second suggestion makes no sense whatsoever, but I suspect you know that.
with the second article, which explains the DNC rules a bit more, it seems the states concerned have two options by Party rules, they either put in a submission Appealing the Ruling, (which would not be heard by a committee until Juneish), or they hold another valid primary before the Committee meets.
.
I figure that each state has its own specific arguments/case which could be made, and issues to consider (eg like cost of holding another primary), in deciding whether or not to lodge a formal case to the Appeal Committee, or hold another primary, or just let it go.
637 – That states the rules correctly.
However, can you imagine any Committee that wasn’t heavily branch stacked, allowing Clinton to have all the delegates in Michigan, because she broke party rules and did not have any competition in the primary?
Common sense dictates otherwise.
Florida she might have more of a shot at, because all candidates were on the ballot, but I suspect that will also go down in flames due to candidates being unable to campaign.
I have no issue with new primaries, again the only issue for the Democrats being cost.
Finnigans @635 “So the argument that if Obama has more PDs than Hillary, then the SDs should pick Obama is absolutely bunkum.”
.
Yer, in theory LOL, and there are a few examples cited from previous elections where its ended up going either which way. I kept puzzling, why have SDs at all, if they are only “rubber-stampers”?
.
I dont have a real problem with it, each state does its allocation so differently anyway, its hard to make a judgement just how ‘democratic’ the overall primary/caucus process actually is. Talk about smorgasbord tossed-salad democracy amongst the rank-and-file!
.
In the end, I agree with one of the commenters opinions, that in a close contest, it is preferable to have the Party officials just weigh in and make a decision based on their “informed opinions” to swing whichever way they think best. They can then take the whole rap, if its the wrong one! *chuckle*
.
Now I understand more about it, I also agree with their whinge about the confusion amongst news outlets counting the delegates :
“What I wish is that the SuperDelegates wouldn’t be included in all the counts given by major news outlets.
.
Their votes aren’t final until the convention anyway, so they shouldn’t be allowed to sway momentum just yet.”
.
The question is: In the interests of democracy, if one candidate has more states, more of the popular vote and more pledged delegates (lets say we include Michigan and Florida) – should the super delegates overrule this decision?
from the NYTimes:
Mr. Obama’s campaign said that he had a lead of 1,139 to 1,003; by the count of the Clinton campaign organization, Mr. Obama was doing even better: 1,141 to 1,004 for Mrs. Clinton.
…so it’s really the nuke option, isn’t it? LOL
And here’s the Clinton camp, trying to change the rules again, with the argument that delegates from ‘caucus’ states being somehow of lesser value than those of ‘primary’ states:
“I think for superdelegates, the quality of where the win comes from should matter in terms of making a judgment about who might be the best general election candidate,” said Mark Penn, Mrs. Clinton’s senior campaign adviser.
…why not just nominate a value, say 0.75 for Obama’s delegates? You know, they’re not Hillary’s delegates, so clearly, they’re of inferior value!
Gotta say, Camp Clinton is sounding dreadfully desperate.
Imagine we are not thinking of ‘what will’ and ‘what if’, Hillary style, and actually think of the situation now in regards to standing, states won, organisations, money and votes. It is obvious that if a bunch of SDs were in the position to decide now they would go for Obama. They could not conscionably do anything else. Even in 84 (when there was some controversy) SDs backed the candidate with the money, momentum, and popular vote (if not most states). Hillary is behind in all of these categories, and her claim that she is the better campaigner and has a better record and results is demonstrably false while she is losing this contest.
have a better…
That Mark Penn is one slippery character. I’m going to enjoy watching him fall on his face.
From Penn: “the quality of where the win comes from should matter in terms of making a judgment about who might be the best general election candidate,”????
What the hell could that possibly mean? The fact that Hillary won California and New York, which will vote Democrat anyway, is a big deal? Another doozy from his 5 point press release on why Hillary is the candidate with a reply from The Nation:
‘ Current Poll Numbers Don’t Tell the Story of What Will Happen: Sen. Obama Routinely Underperforms While Hillary Overperforms.
Is going from the inevitable candidate to almost being out of the race called “overperformance” these days? Let me go check my dictionary. Or going from, “Is this guy serious?” to contender, underperformance? ‘
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/notion?bid=15&pid=284112
I know it is abit of topic. But Malaysia is heading for a snap election
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2008/February/theworld_February419.xml§ion=theworld
It is a shme however they are going early so Anwar Ibrahim can’ not contest the election, What cowards. Hope the Barisan Nasional gets flogged personally. But it is unlikeley to happen
While McCain is now in favour of torture, it seems it’s too hot a topic for even American cable TV:
Discovery Channel Drops Plans To Air ‘Taxi To The Dark Side’ Because It Is Too ‘Controversial’
Taxi to the Dark Side, a documentary about an innocent Afghan taxi driver tortured to death by U.S. officials at Bagram Air Base, has received wide critical acclaim since its debut in April at the Tribeca Film Festival. The New York Times’s A.O. Scott said, “If recent American history is ever going to be discussed with the necessary clarity and ethical rigor, this film will be essential.”
Director Alex Gibney agreed to sell the rights of Taxi to the Discovery Channel because executives convinced him they would “give the film a prominent broadcast.” Now, however, Discovery has dropped its plans to air the documentary because the film is too controversial.
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/02/08/gibney-taxi-discovery/
KR at 613, excellent skinny from the Atlantic.
“Rather than punish Solis Doyle(HRC’s recently eclipsed campaign manager) or raise questions about her fitness to lead, Clinton chose her to manage the presidential campaign for reasons that should now be obvious: above all, Clinton prizes loyalty and discipline, and Solis Doyle demonstrated both traits, if little else. This suggests to me that for all the emphasis Clinton has placed on executive leadership in this campaign, her own approach is a lot closer to the current president’s than her supporters might like to admit.”
Fascinatingly, the electoral sea-chage come tsunami hasn’t registered high water mark with the author and senior Atantic editor, Joshua Green, who still believes(like A.C.) that HRC will still take Texas and Ohio.
Yubba Bubba Dubba Do!!
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/080212/cx_hulme_umedia/20081202
Ladies and gentleman, may I present the latest Board Odds from a colourful Northern Territory online gaming institution
President – WINNER
OBAMA, Barack 1.90
MCCAIN, John 2.90
CLINTON, Hillary 4.00
Hey-Zoos H. Karisto!!
Despite people claiming they hate political attack ads a new study they are still influenced by them, especially young adults.
647
Enemy Combatant
Yeah, it’s fascinating EC. How does she let such lousy stuff happen in her headquarters and then go out smiling to the crowds to tell them what a great ‘commander in chief’ she’d make?
Really and truly, shades of the Grinning Chimp! There was clearly another bad case of “mission accomplished” syndrome and equally poor management of the inevitable setbacks.
You know, I really think she’s on the skids, and Obama just needs to keep the inspirational stuff going while he lets people know that he’s got solid policy credentials and is exactly what says he is, ie change.
Fascinating contest, eh?
Jen @ 622,
some more ‘Gentle Persuasion’ if not pastoral advice before this evenings roughhouse ramblings. All kneel down. Clutch flag. Suspend belief. And be upstanding. I love US ‘politics’.
http://photos1.blogger.com/photoInclude/blogger/7338/1841/1600/HusbandUterus-e.jpg (Warning, not for the onanista)
Amen. (Go Zimmer!)
PS are CNN covering the attack on Iran & Syria & the Net? Any updates on the ‘grassy knoll’?
Mayo 648
Yes negative attack adds do work. However the current strain of professional analysis is that they only work if they are re enforcing an existing pre conception even if it is a reasonably weak. A certain amount is probably enough to do it. However if there is no substance or the attack is abit of a stretch then you are just wasting your money.
The subject of torture came up today, and how fitting that Kristoff in the NYTimes publishes this harrowing article about what’s being done, in the name of the ‘war on terror’ to some innocent people. One was released in December:
Some were aid workers who were kidnapped by armed Afghan groups and sold to the C.I.A. as extremists. One longtime Sudanese aid worker employed by an international charity, Adel Hamad, was just released by the U.S. in December after five years in captivity. A U.S. Army major reviewing his case called it “unconscionable.”
…and the Aljazeera camerman who was initially mistaken for someone else, is still there, six years later, held like an animal and fed with a tube.
America is besmirching any claim to being civilised:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/14/opinion/14kristof.html?hp
650
thanks codger:
I appear to have lost my way. Perhaps that’s why i’m missing a husband – should have let him control my uterus better. And a touch more waterboarding.
Another one for Obama:
David Wilhelm, who was Bill Clinton’s campaign chairman in 1992, has endorsed Senator Barack Obama for president.
Mr. Wilhelm lives and works in Ohio, which will be a major battleground for the Democratic candidates come March 4.
After Mr. Wilhelm helped him win the election, Mr. Clinton made Mr. Wilhelm the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. Now a venture capitalist who focuses on neglected regions of the country, Mr. Wilhelm is also a superdelegate and said he expected the Obama campaign would want him to get on the phone to lobby other superdelegates.
He said in a conference call today that Mr. Obama was more electable than Senator Hillary Clinton. Mr. Obama’s campaign is evidence of his leadership, he said, calling it “masterful.”
“He has out-worked her, out-organized her and out-raised her,” Mr. Wilhelm said. “I know organizational excellence when I see it, and the Obama campaign, win or lose, will serve as a model” of execution of strategy, message discipline, application of new technology and small-donor fund raising.
NYTimes
Now, I wonder what Hillary thinks about that? LOL
Hey Jen, Hussein may land this trout…deep sea…off the reef…and beat the sharks to the tinny. It’s now a race.
“Mr. Obama was more electable than Senator Hillary Clinton”
pretty much says it all.
codger -
race over?
Enemy C @ 647
On Betfair Hillary is even less popular for next President:
Obama – $2.04 (evens)
McCain $3.20 (2/1)
Clinton $5.50 (9/2)
So, if:
… in 1976, Jimmy Carter lost twenty-three states before winning the nomination, including: Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, West Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama, Illinois, Mississippi, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, California, Arizona, Alaska, Hawaii, and Utah.
…then why can’t Obama still win without California, NY, and NJ?
(Thanks to Mark Penn for spelling it out! LOL)
God, they’re trawling for any precedent or argument they can muster, but ironically, all they’re proving is that HRC is actually losing.
#654
Jen
Oh my – Oh gosh – I’ll don’t think I’ll be able to read another post from Jen in quite the same way.
Jen @ 654 just to clear up the small ambiguity of – “missing a husband”
Is this as in:
1. pining for a particular husband who is away briefly (i.e. in Darwin on business)
2. pining for a particular husband who is permanently away (i.e in gaol for manslaughterr)
3. pining for someone, or alternatively anyone, to become your husband (i.e on RSVP)
4. your husband has disappeared (i.e. ASIO has him under anti-terrorism laws)
5. your husband is lost (i.e. Bushwalking in Tasmania)
6. your former husband is divorced. (i.e. he was an a*sehole)
7 Your former husband is dismembered in a barrel (i.e. you didn’t do it … nobody saw you … they can’t prove anything.)
sorry davidoff
(not that apologies mean anything of course)
just tricking. I’ve never liked waterboarding.
7.
Some numbers, very crunchy…
States Awarding Delegates
Total Vote %
Obama 9,373,334 50%
Clinton 8,674,779 46%
Others 726,095 4%
With Florida
Total Vote %
Obama 9,942,375 49%
Clinton 9,531,987 46%
Others 984,236 4%
With Florida and Michigan
Total Vote %
Obama 9,942,375 47%
Clinton 9,860,138 47%
Others 1,249,922 6%
663
jen
jen, you always struck me more as an ironingboarding sort?
On Penn: http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070604/berman/3
“Al Gore fired Penn as his pollster before the 2000 Democratic primaries, in part because he wanted to move in a more populist direction and in part because he didn’t trust him. Penn “would write polls to get the result he felt was important,” Tony Coelho, Gore’s campaign chair, told Rolling Stone. Recently two poll interviewees accused the Denver-based field office of Penn’s firm, PSA Interviewing, of conducting misleading telephone polls in California and New Hampshire. The interviewers read to respondents statements like “John Edwards chose not to run for another Senate term because he didn’t think he could win, abandoning the fight in Congress against the administration,” and “Barack Obama failed to vote in favor of abortion rights nine times as a state senator.” Hillary, by contrast, is presented as someone who “was born into a middle-class home where she learned the value of hard work and frugality.” At the end of the script the poll asks, “Based on what you’ve heard, who would you choose as the Democratic candidate for President: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards or Barack Obama?” In response to these accusations, Penn said the charges were false and that “this firm conducts standard political and market research polls…and does not do push polling.” He would not confirm or deny that the questions above came from PSA.
These days Penn’s few political clients lean to the right. He worked on Joe Lieberman’s ill-fated presidential run and the Venezuelan recall referendum in 2004 and Italian billionaire Silvio Berlusconi’s unsuccessful re-election campaign last year.”
we now have more indepth polling data on Virginia which to a month ago was regarded as a natural Clinton State
only 20 % Afro American
White voters……Clinton only 52/48
non college voters
previously a clinton strength….Clinton 38/62
woman voters
previously a clinton strength…..Clinton 42/58
The Afro American vote was only 20%….Clinton 10/90
Seems Clinton’s power base really has collapsed
Diogenes, Vale Smokey Dawson aged 94.
If the delegate lead is small at the end of the races, say 100 at this time it will be difficult for the supers to overturn that. (Plus it is likely that the now-uncommitted supers will break no worse than 50-50, so Clinton may not be able to make up a 100 delegate gap, even in a completely free vote.)
The only breaking issues would be performance head to head, or in key swing states: Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. (Florida is the icing on the Dem cake, but is not necessary.) So far, Obama is looking good by these measures.
Obama currently has a ~40 lead, by the end of Feb it’s likely to be around 100. So Clinton has to win March and April by over 50 delegates, or more than 5% on average.
But if Obama comes up with a victory in Ohio on March 4, Clinton’s task blows out to needing closer to a 10% margin in Texas and Pennsylvania. She’s done that in big states so far so it’s within reach, but a tough ask…
So if Obama can win Ohio he will have another key swing state under his belt and will be on the edge of the (politically practically) unassailable delegate lead.
ESJ @ 669 – [Diogenes, Vale Smokey Dawson aged 94.]
When I was a kid I saw him fall off his horse on the tramlines near Sydney Town Hall in a parade, the name of which I can nearly remember, but not quite. It used to be on a Saturday. I also was given some of his 78 records, that had a US western style story and some country & western style songs.
He was one of those pioneers who planted a cutting of the American country and western culture to Australia. Why in the name of Uluru did he want to do that? It has culminated in the Tamworth festival every January, and in Lee Kernighan as Australian of the Year. Are we grateful to Smoky? Not I, sad to say.
jaundiced view @ 662 – The problem is, if it’s number 4 then Jen isn’t allowed to tell on pain of joining hubby for water frolics in the gulag, so her answer of 7 should, I submit, be taken with a very large dollop of sodium chloride.
Clearly, hubby isn’t maturating in a nitric acid filled barrel, but part of the terrorist cell that fooled everyone except the
dimquick witted Kevin – Andrews not Rudd – and Jen is probably one of the Jihad Shielas. The question is, has she donned the burka in solidarity with hubby, or is Jen angling to score 72 virginal toyboys in Paradise?672
alright then, not 7. Sadly.
and I am quite partial to the after-life scenario, although I believe those rules don’t apply to girls.
jen @ 673 – that’s what the goddess wants everyone to believe. How do you think they get so many virginal toyboys there?
Goody.
MayoFeral @672 & Jen – Well why wouldn’t it work both ways? Otherwise it wouldn’t be fair. Surely Jihad Boys and Jihad Sheilas both get 72 virgo intactas if they strap on a big one (as it were) and hit the detonator. Are you saying the major religions aren’t about equity?
By the way, I wish I’d seen the recent ABC show about the J Sheilas years ago. It made me realise I was for many years I was the partner of what must have been another jihad sheila. She fooled me because she didn’t wear the burka, but the clue should have been the extremist behaviour
Martin B,
I would be looking at a different set of figures. I agree with you that the overall delegate lead is around 40, however I suspect that the remaining superdelegates (who are not going to jump on a bandwagon in the next few weeks) won’t be looking at that, they will be looking at the other figure: pledged delegates. Here, Obama currently has a 136 delegate lead. Using your estimates, which sound about right, that will be somewhere near the 200 range before March 4.
You would suspect by then that the polls would have narrowed in the two big states, and thus the day – thanks to proportional voting – will once more effectively end in a delegate tie, with a couple of dozen candidate split going one way or the other. Clinton needs to win both big states for show and show only, she needs to kill the inevitable tag and momentum belief in one swoop before the tide overruns her – if it hasn’t already (and personally by then I think it will have, but that’s another story.)
If the day is tied, and Obama wins a ‘big state’ he isn’t supposed to win, guaranteed a bunch of superdelegates will jump on the Obama ship, and a few may flee the Clinton one. She currently holds around 80 more superdelegates than Obama – it would greatly surprise me if that number doesn’t dwindle slightly before March 4, and will probably dissolve to an insignificant amount if Obama takes a state or two on the said date. But as I said before, the only importance this has right now is in terms of numbers – the media continues to insist on including them when quoting figures, thus the campaigns want to have as many of them as they can.
Clinton is currently exhibiting all the signs of a desperate candidate. She has piled all her resources into this one great last stand, because that’s her only option. Obama has three weeks now to lock in the feeling of inevitability, because if he can’t do it now then he will slowly be choked by talk of party unity after this date, which will doubtless be fuelled by the remains of the Clinton machine. At the end of that day, he needs to have a big lead, continuing momentum, a couple of good debate showings and a clean nose. He needs to achieve this while facing the corned Clinton empire, which is going to throw absolutely everything at him. Her going negative may hurt her, but people expect that she will go to any lengths – Obama has done so well because he is perceived to be above this, restricting him from responding in turn. And, perhaps for the first time, he needs to deal with the fact that this race is now perceived to be his to lose.
It will be one hell of a month.
For anybody wanting details of delegates and the like in a nice, simple format, this page should be checked and bookmarked. I wish I had had it at the start of the bloody campaign.
Well, I don’t disagree with your conclusions
Clinton must win Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania by clear margins to have a shot. If Obama wins any of them Clinton is up against it, but I guess I’m saying that if it’s Ohio she is definitely gone.
I suspect the currently committed supers won’t dwindle by that much – some are soft, but a lot seem pretty rusted on (and if an Obama win becomes too obvious, some will just want to show support). The question is the uncommitteds: 50-50 is about the best break Clinton could hope for, but if Obama racks up more and more victories, these could pile in, which would deliver a (relatively) comfortable nomination.
Max,
thank you for that analysis. I agree with you, and at the risk of sounding glib (given the last few entries), I think that a desperate woman is not a vote winner.
The dirtier Hillary plays the more of a turn off it will be for the elctorate.
A trifecta in Texas Ohio and Pennsylvania is the “miracle of the House of Brandenburg” that the Clinton’s are waiting for. A loss in any one of the three and they’ll be breaking out the suicide pills in the bunker.
Some interesting sepculation on pollster.com regarding how poor whites are a bit slower to get realise the “mo” is on, what with the lack of internet and having to work too many shifts etc etc. Reading the entrails of the Potomac exit polls would indicate that the message is finally getting through to them – even in the south. Data insufficient to confirm the hypothesis, but it would explain a lot.
A little background on rules in the Lone Star State.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/5528612.html
davidoff
All of the sites CNN ,NYT, CBS , AP , NBC & DCW have incomplete delegate allocations in about 6 states EACH
but except for Maryand & Virginia & Demo Ab. not the same 6
The result is none of them add up to near the nuber of delegates that have actually been won being 2178 delegates
I’ve been through the 36 States & compared their results & where necessary
made adjustments including for State proportional voting %’s
My calculations are for Pledged Delegates from Primarys as at now:
Clinton 1011
Obama 1141
Edwards 26 (maybe later important)
Total 2178 (= total delegates that were available to win)
Obama lead is 130 (with a 65% chance of getting Edwards 26 delegates)
Ghese sites ALSO have varying Superdelegate counts
Superdelegate ComparisonCandidate DCW CNN CBS AP
DCW CNN CBS AP
Clinton 232 234 210 242
Obama 146 156 141 163
Clintons best result is DCW with 86 lead & her worst is CBS with 69 lead
Taking the DCW Superdelegates figure (Clintons best lead) , overall delegates:
Clinton 1243
Obama 1287
Edwards 26
With 1075 future Primary delegates to be won & 418 unpledged Superdelegates
Do these figures accord with yours ?
Personally, I think the media is focussing way too much on Pennsylvania as a Clinton saviour.
The Pennsylvanian (sp?) primary is an entire 49 days after March 4. Seven weeks. Ten weeks from today. If the race drags out to that point, then I suspect Clinton will have somehow guillotined Obama’s momentum and lead, at which point the state (which favours her anyway) will simply fall in line. There is no way she can continue to fight him for another month and a half after March 4 if he sustains the momentum he has now. Or, if she does, then Pennsylvania will obviously simply be a final killing blow. But anyway, i digress.
I think that there are two, maybe three if you include Gore, people who can make a big impact on this race. The first is Huckabee. If he pulls out in the next few days, it means the Republicans don’t need to gear up for March 4. They can focus right now on starting their campaign. It wouldn’t surprise me if McCain has a VP ready to announce 48 hours after Huckabee pulls out, and watch the tremors ripple through the Democratic Party if that happens. Every day Huckabee stays in now is a gift to the Democrats, because its one more day they get before the media starts to spin the ‘instability’ line.
My gut says he will stay in until March 5, but on the flip side the McCain camp is starting to get a bit cranky now. He is rapidly approaching the line where he goes from ‘making a point’ to ‘pissing everyone off.’ So who knows?
Second is Edwards. His decision to pull out when he did made no sense. Right now, he is seen as the good guy, the one who genuinely stood aside for the good of his party. If he jumps aboard the right ship now, he is going to be reaping it in should there be a Democrat Administration in ten months. The question is whether he chooses to do that, the longer he keeps his silence the more honourable he looks, but getting in now, before a nomination is sewn up, obviously puts him in good stead. Tough call.
As for Gore, well, when he talks people listen. Question is whether he will talk.
We can only hope that the process in the US is a little tidier than the result of the voting in the German State of Hesse where elections were held in the middle of last month. Koch who ran on a tough law and order ticket got thumped at the polls and is now finding it very difficult to form a government. Today, Karin Wolff resigned and complicated the process further.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,3092951,00.html?maca=en-rss-en-ger-1023-rdf
http://www.taz.de/1/politik/deutschland/artikel/1/kabinettsschwund-bringt-koch-unter-druck/?src=MT&cHash=20db14e57e
Max @ 683 – good call. I have been thinking lately that Edwards will wait to endorse Obama at a key moment – it will be all about exquisite timing, unless the momentum continues. If it does, Edwards can jump on board any old time.
Gore may even stay quiet, because a Clinton or an Obama administration would surely use him anyway, if that’s want he wants.
#682 Ron
Your numbers are very close to my own. You may want to check your pledged delegate figures against the running totals over on the Obama site http://origin.barackobama.com/resultscenter/ which suggest a base delegate count of 1003/1136 (which is a touch different to your base delegate count). Apart from that – yep – it looks right.
Edwards politically is to the ‘left’ of the Democrat Party (close to Obama)
Expect Edwards wishs to endorse Obama
His 26 delegates could be important
why has he not yet ?
Could be the honourable Party man or waiting for the effective Pro Obama moment to endorse him or cynically waiting to back the ‘perceived ‘winner’ & gain some ’spoils’. I expect him to after 4/3 Ohio/Texas result
Gore’s position is difficult given he was Bill’s VP but Obama has been stronger on emission controls than Hillary. Expect him to remain quiet until the Covention
Expect Clinton to win Ohio by 52/48 & Texas 51/49 which if so may pressure Superdelgeates to urge her to concede in the Party’s interests,
due to Obama’s big win 26/10 in States won. Her response….
#683 Max ..
My growing opinion is that the whole Ohio/Texas/Penn thing is media scam. The numbers just don’t stack up – Camp Clinton could win the three states but they still loose. I figure the talk of a firewall is to create the impression of victory that just isn’t real – and the press in the States seems to playing along with the story without dissent. In effect Camp Clinton fight for superdelegates is just too attractive and will boost revenue for all involved – and in the process give Hillary bragging rights for what will be a loss – but in the same time boost here moral standing.
But maybe I’m just becoming a late-night conspiracy theory tragic!
should add , Polls last Polls show big Clinton leads
My predictions are on the famous ‘narrowing’
My prediction is a narrowing of epic ‘proportions’ – Camp Clinton is turning nasty and its not going down well on mainstreet.
Just move those quote back two or three words – its late!
ouch – hillary just spotted my post!
David,
The thing is… she has no choice. Her only option is to win big on this one day, and hope it is enough for the press to turn on Obama and try to convince the party bigwigs that if he can’t beat her in the big states, what chance does he have in November?
She can’t win in terms of ‘pledged delegates’ now (barring exception circumstances) or in terms of states won, all she has left is the popular vote (gettable) and the ‘type’ of her victories (big state over small.)
I also just checked Gore’s wikipedia article – there is a source there stating he plans to play the ‘elder statesman’ role and not endorse a candidate during the primaries. Which is a smart move for all involved.
McCain Adviser Won’t Fight Obama
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/02/mccain-adviser.html
Rudy campaign reincarnated.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/13/clinton-optimistic-about-_n_86579.html
Max ,
Gore’s reasons may be for the reasons I bloged above..split loyalties
Re your big state win comment for Hillary , yes you are right
but on my predictions she will be disappointed ( on Davidoff’s she’ll be in ‘tears’)
That’s right – make me out as the bad guy!
” SORRY”…….but no compensation …except one champers
accepted!
Davidoff
Obama’s site totals 2168 delegates ,
10 less than actually have been voted for (and therefore 10 less than my total)
Obama’s site has i unallocated delegate still for New Mexico and 2 for NY !
plus the 7 for Democrats abroad 10/2 vote where no results are in yet
which i allocated 4/3 Obama
Ron
The New Mexico count for Obama should be 12 (not 11)
New York should be 139 for Hillary (not 137)
Add the 7 delegates for Democrats Abroad 4/3 for Obama and we get:
Obama 1144
Clinton 1008
Edwards 26
Total 2178
Which should match your total.
Ron, just a note …
The DCW superdelegate count has been updated.
Obama: 149 (+3)
Clinton: 234 (+2)
Is this the beginning of a trend?
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/Cscq
An interesting article in the New York Times which is really about the impact of planning and effective campaign management.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/14/us/politics/14clinton.html?pagewanted=1&ref=politics
Obama’s new add responding to the negative (he won’t debate me) Hillary add.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/14/obama-ad-criticizes-hilla_n_86707.html
Mornin’ Bludgers, pol. junkies and the idly curious.
Obama’s surge in numbers:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history
Obi feeds the new brood MSM chook-dudes.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AmYyyX3R2nkCRGEfLpcB7Z1X_b4F
Luckovich Euclids it for the Over-Triangulator; when you lose your angles, you become a flat line.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=AkO59_I.MDRXgHcMYt4c1.hR_b4F
slight movement from cbet.
President – WINNER
OBAMA, Barack 1.90
MCCAIN, John 2.90
CLINTON, Hillary 4.00
And this one is for Jen … what’s you take on this?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/linda-keenan/why-my-femifriends-wont_b_86592.html
Super delegates snowed-under with Seasonal Lerve.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/robrogers;_ylt=A0WTUd7Sq7RH7TwBqx0HcggF
#706
Enemy Combatant
Your not kidding either – Clinton 37% and Obama 49%, that Camp Clinton down 4% and Obama up 3% in just one day.
Less jobs more wars.
http://lessjobsmorewars.com/
Romney gives Huckabee a kick as he leaves the building and endorses McCain, leaving his delegaes to the Man’o War.
Forget all the analysis of who has what, how many blah blah blah. It looks like it has come down to this. If Hillary wins Ohio, Texas and Penn. then she’s in. If Obama wins one or more of these, then he is in. Bring in on!!!
#712
Nah – your just buying into the Clinton Camp Manifesto.
Obama can loose all three and still maintain the lead.
#713 – Yours? Mandate from heaven? Kumbaya My Lord, Kumbaya.
Almost fair, Finnegans. I’d add a twist: If Hillary wins the three, then she is still in the race . If Obama wins one of the three, he is the Democratic nominee.
#714
The Finnigans
Nope – just plain numbers without the spin.
Guys, I don’t think this blog is going to be very interesting if all we can say is he can, no, she can!
But these lulls between state primaries sure are dull, eh?
What is interesting however is the way the process is never static, and each vote changes the dynamic for the next ones. It’s a peculiar system, more like a prize fight than an election as we know it, where everything happens in one day.
Here we have contestants slugging it out, state after state, with time in their corners after each round, the bruises and cuts dressed, the barrackers screaming for their man (or woman!), and the commentators going into meltdown counting points for who hit who the hardest, who put in a low blow, and who looks wobbliest after a serious right hook.
And the crowd roars as the contestants stagger to their feet for the next round….ding!
Oh wow. That’s a brilliant move by Romney.
In one swoop he has:
- become the man forever to be known as the guy who ended the turmoil holding up the party
- repaired his chances at a future crack at the presidency
- embarrassed Huckabee
- presented himself as the man to take over the nomination if McCain gets sick (ie dies) in the next few months before the convention.
Superb politics. How will Huckabee respond?
Sorry, Huckabee has responded:
…however, he is now starting to look petty, not just gutsy. It would not surprise me now if he pulled out before March 4.
718
Max
yes, dead right.
So who’s got a ‘timetable’ now? LOL
It was McCain accusing Romney of having a ‘timetable’ to withdraw from Iraq that dropped Romney with the war crowd and made him untouchable (they didn’t mind his Mormonism or his previous soft social stances).
HCUK is cactus anyway, but this just returns the compliment of being squeezed out by him and McCain.
Machiavelli could not have written a better script.
‘cactus’, but still prickly!
Hillary gets New Mexico – probable 13/13 slip on delegates.
DCW superdelege count has changed again.
Obama: 150 (+1)
Clinton: 233 (-1)
723
davidoff
hey Zino, is this some form of Chinese Water Torture (not to be confused with waterboarding!)?
Drip, drip, one Super D at a time?
AAaaaaaargh, it’s going to be painful getting to the winner at that rate! LOL
This is an interesting piece from the oz which effectively simplifies matters to the following statement: Hillary is finished, because the only way she wins now is by asking the superdelegates to go against the will of the constituents and vote for her at the convention. This, Hillary is either going to lose the primary or win the primary and by doing so guaranteeing she will lose the general.
When you think about it, this is an excellent point. Can you imagine the Republican delight at this? They would have the following going for them:
- A candidate with only a couple of months to really sell her case, while McCain had had the past seven
- The reflection of instability (not hard to portray given the performance of the Democratic caucus already, which has approval ratings of 20%) in a world not only torn militarily, but also in trouble economically
- The fact they can now attack by stating the party didn’t really want her to start with
- The fact a whole lot of Obama supporters will stay home, along with others who while not hard core supporters, are furious with the party for what they have done
- The vast majority of independent votes will now go to McCain or not vote at all
- All this on top of the fact that a large chunk of the country already dislikes her immensely – I doubt it is at 45% now like it was a year ago, but can imagine it being at at least 35.
Perfect storm not only to take the White House but also to have a crack at Congress again, if turnout collapses amongst the Dems.
This may change slightly if Clinton captures the popular vote – she will have credibility to a mandate then – but from what I have seen this appears unlikely (unless Florida and Michigan get seated).
Anybody want to poke holes in my argument? Because I am struggling to see how she gets out of this.
Hey – I think its kind of cool – no elections but his numbers are creeping up almost organically. Like watching a fridge defrost form a distance.
725
Max
That’s essentially the Obama camp’s argument: we have the numbers now, and the momentum, and Hillary can steal it by trying to overturn FL and MI and arm wrestling the Supers, but not honestly.
Penn came out yesterday to say how many nominees actually got endorsed after significant losses, but his argument is not convincing either way, it could just as well apply to Obama not winning a couple of the big states.
Of course this all gets academic if he wins Ohio or Texas (maybe possible?), but holding close to her is not going to change the equation her way.
Nup, she’s on her knees, and the coup de grace is yet to be struck.
She doesn’t – she’s ‘done and dusted’ but the media ain’t interested in closing the lid just yet and Hillary ain’t ready to play the fat lady either.
The latest polls show Hillary actually still has approximately 15+ point leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania. How does that impact on the delegate count if it comes to fruition?
Obama can loose Ohio, Texas and Penn and still maintain the lead.
Which is why this whole firewall thing is shaking up to be a crock-of-shit.
Zino, if Obama gets Hillary’s lead down to single digits in Texas, Ohio and Pennslyvania, how do the numbers look then?
Of course the national polls are starting to pull Obama into the lead, and every day that he increases that lead, the more he starts to look the natural leader, and that will decrease Hillary’s following and money raising ability.
Death by decimal points.
KR – hang on while I crank some numbers
Oh, and as for that defrosting, what if Obama pulls out the hair dryer and helps it along a bit? Coz he sure as hell is putting some heat on Hillary! LOL
But what if Clinton wins Ohio by 21 points and Pennsylvania by 16 points as the polls suggest?
Link to above polls
http://www1.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
Problem is nothing really changes. Unless we get into a series of 75/25 landslides – the numbers just float around the same old level. I.e. there is not a viable change scenario for either party – the numbers just don’t add up.
OK everyone – give me scenarios for the following and I’ll punch then into the system.
Hawaii
Wisconsin
Ohio
Rhode Isl.
Texas
Vermont
Worst case scenario:
Hawaii – 55 Obama 45 Clinton
Wisconsin – 50 Obama 50 Clinton
Ohio – 40 Obama 60 Clinton
Rhode island – 40 Obama 60 Clinton
Texas – 43 Obama – 57 Clinton
Pennslyvania 42 Obama – 58 Clinton
Who’s favoured to win Vermont?
Clinton 37 Obama 19
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/vermont.html
738
davidoff
So you’re saying that Clinton cannot claw back into the lead from here? Hmm, that would explain some of the desperate noises from Camp Clinton, who must realise that they are too far back to overtake Obama.
At what point do the Supers decide to jump the fence and make this official? Presumably they must wait for all states to vote, but the slow dripping would seem to indicate a need to ‘help things along’ a bit? If this gets its own momentum, there could be a stampede of Supers who want to settle this thing without it dragging on for months in some kind of limbo, Obama going to win, but Clinton not conceding.
There must come a point when they realise they (Supers) must act to get the thing resolved so they don’t all end up at the Convention in acrimony, knowing that one side or the other will be bitter, and then having to rally the troops to knock over McCain.
I cannot see them letting this happen. There must come a tipping point soon after Texas where they have to push it one way or the other, to not do so will be a slow, lingering torture for the party and it’s chance in November.
741 Don’t forget those Vermont polls are nearly a year old.
There is no way Clinton is up by 21 points in Ohio, that looks dodgy to me. 15 sounds right. Interesting that that still leaves around 10-12% undecided – my guess is that Obama will grab the majority of those.
I think she will win the state either way, although that’s difficult to predict until we see how organised the two campaigns are there. The real battle is Texas – which is why she is parking her behind there for three weeks. That was 10 point gap two weeks ago – before Super Tuesday and the subsequent Obama sweep – so it is probably down a few more points now. Anyone’s game, and it doesn’t matter (to the media) which of the two Obama wins, one will be enough.
I would take absolutely no notice of Pennsylvania, their primary is not for another ten weeks, hence current polling numbers are completely useless. It would be like using polling taken in the middle of September as a guide for the general election.
Vermont’s the state with a socialist senator – sounds like Obama territory to me.
#740
asanque
Using your figures and Pen split of 42/58 (advantage Hillary), we get (Obama/Clinton):
counted and locked in 1144, 1008 (Obama advantate today: 136)
remaining race: 501, 565
total pledged: 1144, 1008 (Obama pladed delegate advantage 136)
add super: 150, 233
final count: 1294, 1241 (Obama wins by 53 before the undecides step into the ring)
hang on
nope thats wrong
Sorry Davidoff, could you please explain your figures a little more clearly.
It looks like your figures above did not factor in the remaining race?
#740
asanque figures
With Pen split of 42/58 (advantage Hillary), we get (Obama/Clinton):
counted and locked in 1144, 1008 (Obama advantate today: 136)
remaining race: 501, 565
total pledged: 1645, 1573 (Obama pladed delegate advantage 72)
add supers: 150, 233
final count: 1795, 1806 (Hillary advantage)
Based on prior polls – you can almost guarantee Obama will pull all of the undecided plus an extra two points.
#749 sorry – my cutting and pasting was not up to scratch
Thanks Davidoff
I’m not so fussed about the superdelegates, but that’s pretty amazing on the pledged delegates on a worst case scenario for Obama. I was having a look at the April/May states to vote, and Obama seems to have a reasonable shot at most of those too.
So it appears the only way Obama is possibly going to lose is if Clinton does as well as possible, Edwards endorses Clinton, she gets the majority of the pledged delegates for Florida/Michigan and gets the majority of the remaining superdelegates as well.
I’m allocating the numbers from the leaked Obama projections from the rest – generall speaking (Ron did the numbers) they safe to view as conservative.
707
davidoff.
Completely agree.
707 cont.
there are many many women I would never vote for, and I am very comfortable with the label of Feminist.
the list is long, but…
current politicians include: Sophie Mirrabella and both Bishops.
Not to mention the now Italian Amanda Vanstone. As well as many women who served under Jeff Kennett and who implemented policies that were socially destructive.
The all-time least favourite: Maggie Thatcher.
Julia on the other hand represents much of what I would respect and expect from a politician of either gender.
#755
asanque – the Edwards endorsement is only worth 26 pledged delegates. But yes – if things went peer shaped and we were looking down the barrel of worst-cace scenario – then, and only then would the Edwards delegates break the case if assigned to Camp Clinton.
but even then – Obama is still 50 odd ahead on pledged
My favorite is Penny, but maybe its not all rational – but maybe it is – maybe she’s an example of being a good politician while maintaining the scene of being a woman. If we take sex out of the equation it is so much easier to be objective.
I’ve predicted Ohio Clinton 52/48
and dispute the Survey Poll which came up with
1/Clinton winning a lage majority of the white vote (Primary’s do not support this
2/ Clinton winning 25% of the black vote when she’s getting 10 to 12%
The low paid working ‘white’ & black voters (Obama’s) have consistently been under weighted in most US Polls VS the actual Primary results
Days ago I’d opened the champers re Obama’s win
…very hubris of me , but the taste is making me more culturally aware
I agree with you on Ohio.
and we need to remember some facts
1. winconsin is an open primary (that means a postential 5% republicans crossing the line)
2. in Ohio independents can vote for Obama
3. Texas is a complicated system with caucus elements – Obama is good on the ground – and I don’t think Texas will follow demographic trends (I still thing Texas is a potential win for Obama)
s/postential/potential
A couple of superdelegates are starting to waver.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Black_superdelegates_torn.html
Me thinks that Camp Clinton is running out of fingers to plug the dike with.
An interesting personal essay on caucuses in the NYT:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/14/opinion/14collins.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
‘MILWAUKEE — Representative John Lewis, an elder statesman from the civil rights era and one of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s most prominent black supporters, said Thursday night that he planned to cast his vote as a superdelegate for Senator Barack Obama in hopes of preventing a fight at the Democratic convention’
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/15/us/politics/15clinton.html?hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1203044472-pljVP/hyGD629Lff+I1NwQ
761
Ron
love it when you talk dirty!
hubris, shoobris, it’s always great to see the pundits and experts get set back on their heels with something that comes out of left field and overturns their paradigm.
765
TurningWorm
Some interesting blog comments on that article, which essentially say the SD’s had better move over sooner rather than later, for everybody’s sake.
It’s about now that we should see the Alien come lunging out of Camp Clinton, drooling viscous saliva, and scaring the bejesus out of the kiddies in the front row of the theatre! LOL
Pass the popcorn, I can’t take my eyes off the screen…..
TV ad in Wisconsin:
“After 18 debates, with two more coming, Hillary says Barack Obama is ducking debates?” the advertisement says, showing images from their debates over the last year. “It’s the same old politics, of phony charges and false attacks.”
…not one to take it lying down, is he?
Gotta say, if the whole purpose of this long tedious and arcane system of selecting a candidate is to see who’s got the best appeal to voters, the best organisational skills, the best stamina, the best money making machine and the best chance of beating the Republican nominee, then it’s sure doing a good job! LOL
Hillary wins New Mexico
But this blogger’s comment says it all
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Hillary_wins_New_Mexico.html
You’re not doing the drooling Alien thing again are you KR?! It upsets people apparently. Perhaps if you give the Alien a bib? She’s going to need one at both ends I’m thinking!
As for the SD’s – they’re not going to vote as a block for either party. Among that crowd there is a lot of rusted on Clintonistas who will not vote any other way. My guess is there’s probably 20% who are rusted on at each end and will not be shifted (that’s 2×20%). The battle will be fought over the 60% remaining. Some of these have already declared (the majority for Hillary) but this group are open to persuasion. Obama needs to persuade over 25% of this group – assuming he wins the elected delegate count. I think he will end up with 30-35% of this remaining group.
772
hi Ferny -
not to put too fine a point on it surely they (the SD’s) will vote for who is most likely to defeat the Rupublican candidate.
And despite views such as Adam has previously stated- that Americans are not ready to vote in a Black president tehrefore there is a high risk that the GOPwill win, surely everything is indicating that this position is no longer correct.
(therefore)
772
Ferny Grover
Oh, I like the image, it’s quite dramatic and probably close to the truth! LOL
773
jen
Did you say he’s black? LOL
Hiya Jen,
I’d love to agree that they will vote for who is most likely to win the presidency. Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. Some will genuinely believe that Hillary has a better chance than the ‘new kid’ and they will hold this view regardless of what the polls say. Others will vote according to their own self interest – whatever that may be or whatever they were promised. Some will feel compelled to vote according to the stated will of their state, or constituency (however defined – geographic or demographic). Some will be ideologically driven and will vote according to who best represents their own beliefs and/or values or their own vision of the future.
I could go on, but you get the point. People will vote one way or the other for a wide range of reasons – and not all of them are driven by who the polls say will win.
In the end, I think Obama will win it, but I’m not yet certain he’ll get the majority of SD’s (though I think he’ll go close) – I just hope he does.
Oh, and as for the view that Americans are not yet ready to vote for a ‘person of colour’ – I think the number of states Obama has won puts that one to bed – as does the head to head polls that pit Obama against anyone. I think he’d run a close election for the position of God at the moment – which would scare the bejesus out of Huckabee and Romney!
Actually, in the end there is a far greater chance that the nomination will be resolved one way or the other long before the convention, and every single superdelegate (and most delegates) will vote for the winner regardless of their position now (as happened in 2004) so that the media doesn’t report on a ‘close convention’.
The irony in politics, huh.
I see the 2nd Amendment has been exercised in yet another University today. This time it’s 5 dead in Illinois. When will they get a POTUS who will tackle this – and when will the people let him?
Ferny, that’s what happens when they’re not allowed to exercise their first amendment any more.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqAVvlyVbag&feature=related
…or her
…The toll in Illinois has risen to 6.
Ferny-
it’s not guns that kill, it’s people doncha know?
Thanks Jen. Isn’t it amazing that Big Munitions can still trot out those glib lines while people are slaughtered all around them. Unfortunately the gun manufacturers fund – and defund – politicians to such a degree that noone – Dem or GOP – has been game to seriously take them on. And so they continue to sell ‘cop killer’ bullets and automatic weapons at gun shows without so much as a background check – because they have a constitutional right to do so.
…and they want to lead the ‘free world’
correction Ferny -
they DO lead the ‘free world’.
Which apparently means they have the constituinal right to murder each other in extroadinary numbers.
Lucky them, hey?
(extraordinary)
I haven’t been in these parts for a while, but as I speculated way back (early January), I think Obama will win the Democrat nomination. Or at least, the Democrats would be fools to put Hillary in ahead of him.
The reason is very simple. There are some clear parallels between what happened here last year and what is now happening in the U.S. A large group of Americans are seeking hope and a fresh start, something that Rudd was offering on a number of policy fronts, and is already delivering. The wounds of post-911 run deep, and the current Bush administration have already exploited latent fear, racism, and prejudice to the maximum, just as Howard did.
Now, after the “dark era”, people want inspiration, hope, and a positive, optimistic message for the future.
This is what Obama is delivering and has been delivering right from the very start, and much more so than Clinton and McCain. Not only this, he is young, bright, and represents generational change, just as Rudd did compared to Howard. He embodies a fresh start on just about every level.
So, I am not at all surprised by the increasing momentum in support for Obama, not just in the U.S., but in many other parts of the world.
The Democrats will stuff up their chances of putting a candidate into the White House as president if they go with Clinton. The overall mood is with Obama and his message, and I think this will only continue to increase as we get closer to November.
I suspect that the party and their superdelegates will realise this in due course – there’s too much at stake – and Obama will be elevated to Democrat presidential candidate.
788 – Noocat – “Or at least, the Democrats would be fools to put Hillary in ahead of him. ”
That’s the guts of this choice. The issue for the savvy Super Delegates is simply: Why would you put up Clinton against McCain when she has a significantly lower chance of winning than does Obama? How do you justify that? Personal loyalty? I don’t think so.
The head-to-head polls on this have been absolutely relentless.
Anyone know what Obama’s view is on gun control?
I remember our learned friend Adam’s view that Obama was unelectable.
I disagreed with him then.
I wonder if he would recant his strong views now.
Although, Obama has by no means won even the Democratic candidacy yet.
The one difference between Rudd and Obama, is that Obama has stuck to his principles moreso then Rudd. Obama has impressed me with his consistent stance on a number of key issues including Iraq.
Rudd was initially pro-Iraq (based on briefings from the Howard government) and his stance against the Howard circus against Haneef was weak. I also felt he should have hammered Howard on his credibility and the numerous scandals of the Howard government. I can understand his tactics, but I didn’t agree with them.
Hopefully now he is out of Howard’s shadow, he is showing more signs of being a leader we can all admire.
789: Jaundiced View, agreed. While personal loyalties will no doubt come into the mix, when it comes to the crunch, and it is a question of who will stand the best chance of seizing the White House, then the choice is simple. It can only be the candidate who is most popular and has proven to best capture the mood of the nation. Any other option may well turn out to be political suicide.
791: Asanque: That is true. Obama has been unwavering in his stance on many policy fronts. But we all know why Rudd took the approach he did over Haneef, and most of us suspected that it would not be the approach he would take if he actually were PM. So far, this would seem to be correct based on his recent approach to the PM-ship. I don’t know if Rudd was justified in his tack back then though – are Australians really so fearful of change that such a level of me-too is required? Difficult to know when it hasn’t actually been tested in recent times…
Obama on gun control:
http://www.ontheissues.org/2008/Barack_Obama_Gun_Control.htm
On gun control BHO is better than they have at present, but still wants to smack the gun manufacturers with a wet lettuce. On this issue, even the most admirable seem to turn to water.
Ferny Grover, I think gun control in America is like negative gearing in Australia. Approach with caution, avoid direct eye contact.
792 Noocat – The thing to watch is that all important head-to-head against McCain poll.
When in a coffee shop this morning they had CNN on and there was a segment with banners something like: “Obama – has he got the experience?” and “Obama under closer scrutiny”. I couldn’t see the slant they were putting on it, but that approach will be put out there by the Clinton forces as much as they can. Their only hope is to destroy Obama’s greater advantage against McCain.
I don’t think this will happen, though, because there’s not enough time.
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4279133
You’ll enjoy this
797
Adam
yeah, saw it yesterday, and it’s a cracker.
And Adam, you will probably like this:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/02/15/us/politics/20080215_DELEGATES_GRAPHIC.html
..a breakdown of states with HRC and BHO compared to Bush’s 2004 vote.
“Barack Obama has won almost twice as many states as Hillary Rodham Clinton in the nominating contests so far, with most of his victories in states where President Bush won by a large margin in 2004.”
Adam
do you stil lthink that Obama won’t/shouldn’t get there?
or are you representative of the swelling numbers of converts from the Clinton camp?
What would your “to do” list be if you were Clinton’s new campaign manager? How about:
1. Win Texas
2. Win Ohio
3. Get vaguely respectable results (say no worse than 40/60 in aggregate) in all the others up to March 11
4. Run a very negative (and effective) campaign against Obama incessantly in the six weeks between March 11 and April 22 (Pennsylvania)
5. Win Pennsylvania well
6. Win more than half the ones after Pennsylvania
7. Keep the super-delegates we already have
8. Win most of the “uncommitted” super-delegates
9. Don’t run out of money
10. Keep Bill quiet
To which could be added, according to taste:
11. Pray
and
12. Get the CV ready for the next job
And the Obama equivalent:
1. Keep it positive
2. Talk about McCain more than Clinton
3. Spend the money, don’t hold back
4. Try really hard to nail it on March 4
Dyno, looks like your #7 on the Clinton list is collapsing.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/15/us/politics/15clinton.html?_r=1&ei=5088&en=bc2896f529942245&ex=1360731600&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&adxnnlx=1203070105-ArlQ1eK4aDVedTNMz+Fveg
You want flies with that?
http://www.conradprojects.com/Billary.html
Yes – at the moment (as reported, anyway) this is just a trickle, but if it becomes a flood, she can forget it.
Oh Dear, the political problems caused by political operatives being associated with Nuclear Power Plants. Someone should have introduced Mark Penn to Mal Brough!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/14/mark-penn-tied-to-controv_n_86722.html
Now a former Republican Senator has endorsed Obama.
http://www.eyewitnessnewstv.com/global/story.asp?s=7871854
801
“What would your “to do” list be if you were Clinton’s new campaign manager? How about..”
quit.
jen,
Cruel but fair – and I guess that was the point of my number 12.
Dyno @ 801 -
1) Check that my redundancy package was locked in
2) Advise HRC to get the best deal she can with Obama’s people. VP is unlikely, but maybe ambassador to France…
809
yeah – I was just more succinct.
Would still really like to know what you think now Adam -(we know you are lurking).
Do you still think Hillary should be nominated, or are you starting to think Obama can do this POTUS thing?
Hey Adam, I’m curious, are you still holding to your ‘Hillary will hold true’ line? Or have you changed your mind?
Dyno – brilliant.
As for the comparisons to Rudd, I agree with them. This is a very strange position for me, as this time six months ago I was very much anti-Rudd (as some posters may remember) and hoping he got his arse handed to him. History shows he won, and them’s the breaks. Yet here I am on the Obama bandwagon.
While it is nice to be on the side everyone else posting is on for a change, it still puzzles me. Further thought is obviously needed.
Max-
go with the Heart not the Head. That is what most voters do, (apart from the psephs, who seem to be getting it wrong a lot lately.)
Jen 811 & Max 812
Yes there was a bit of energy expended discussing Adam’s rocksolid belief in HRC’s destiny as Dem nominee. I seem to vaguely remember it was along the theme of:
“You idiots are dreaming if you think Obama can win the nomination. You are pathetic idealistic lefty wankers all of you, and Obama will be smashed into little pieces by the righteous Clinton juggernaut on or before super Tuesday. Clinton is substance, Obama is a flake”.
Something like that anyway.
Major union set to endorse Obama.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/14/seiu-set-to-endorse-obama_n_86719.html
Max @ 812,
Agree with you about both Rudd and Obama.
I think in my case the disconnect is partly explained by the fact that I reckon the US is a crazy place that needs changing, whereas on the whole I’ve always been pretty happy with Australia.
Yes Gnossen clearly Obama has it sewn up, with Hilary only having 15 point leads in Penslyvania and Ohio and 4 pts behind in Wisconsin.
814
I miss him though.
Seems being wrong is a little too hard to take. Especially when we flakey-lefty- greenie-morons-who-have-no-effing-idea-about-anything-except-how-to roll-a-joint-rather-than-crunch-numbers are looking like we might be right.
as in correct.
Bong on Jen Bong on!
Evening bludgers.
News on the medical grape-vine from Darwin is that Ramos-Horta will be fine.
But Billary… not so good. And that bloody Romney endorsing Macca is a pain in the neck for the Dems (but very well played by Romney IMHO). Should help remind the Dems that they need to stop thinking about trying to resurrect Billary’s corpse and kill her off for the good of the party.
I watched “The Hunting of the President” last night to try to increase my sympathy level for Billary. Bill and Hillary really are unbelievably detested by the Repugs. And I did feel sorry for them, but more so for the US coz the drivel from the Repugs must have screwed with Bill’s mind to some extent and paralysed him into inaction at the end. And if Hillary gets up, it’ll all start over again.
ESJ, that’s a bit uncalled for, don’t you think? Jen is a mistress of irony after all, and who are you to take her literally?
ESJ,
I think I’m still willing to stay with my verdict from two days ago @ 570: Clinton is in deep trouble, but Obama hasn’t won it yet.
However I must say Clinton’s trouble gets deeper by the day – the two most disturbing things from a Clinton viewpoint (though not mine, for I prefer Obama) are:
- the trickle of leaving super-delegates, will it become a flood; and
- the demographic breakthroughs Obama seems to have made in the Potomac primary.
In my view Clinton must win something important before the six-week break, to have any sort of a chance. But can she?
apres
ESJ has gazumped me. I may need to resign.
Oh, and another thing, the luck’s deserted her. The Romney conversion was terribly timed from Hillary’s viewpoint.
Jen, to what?
Dyno,
The super from Georgia(Lewis) is black and has lined up with the rest of the black caucus.
There are many supers who are “owned” by the Clintons, Alexis Herman for instance.
The polls are good for Hilary in Ohio/Pens and I believe Texas
finally the mainstream media is started to attack BHO as a lightweight all hope and no substance.
Diogenes
Smoky Dawson 94 yrs young, need I say more?
Jen,
I thought your “official” photo looked impressively serious and stern, do the Greens have a disputes or disciplinary committee?
Hillary’s advisor.
Yes, ESJ @ 826,
I have no doubt that many of the supers will vote for Clinton no matter what. (Not convinced, by the way, that all the supers will be single-mindly seeking the best Presidential candidate. Plenty of other factors will come into it, best summarised as “what will this person do for me if I vote for them, or do to me if I vote against them”).
The fact that super-dels are probably not, as a group, going to be even-handed, is one of the reasons why my Hillary status report is only “in deep trouble” rather than “gone for all money”.
ESJ, take your sm imaginings somewhere else.
Dyno ,
do not fall for dribble put to you
The Superdelegates trend is against HRC for the past 7 weeks and will continue
Ron,
So you think she is gone for all money?
yep
This guy Lewis (a Superdelegate) carries weight
National known civil right campaigner
He is one of Hillary’s Superdelegates 7 with friends like him HRC has a problem:
Lewis said he is not ready to abandon his backing for the former first lady. But several associates said the nationally known civil rights figure has become increasingly torn about his early endorsement of Clinton. They spoke on condition of anonymity, citing private conversations.
In an interview, Lewis likened Obama to Robert F. Kennedy in his ability to generate campaign excitement, and left open the possibility he might swing behind the Illinois senator
Now are you the same “ron” who was calling the Fed election for the Liberals when Howard announced the tax cuts? I am sure you are!
814
jaundiced view
ha! That pretty much sums it up, but you forgot one word: “loathing”
…as in: “ignorant loathing lefties”
You had the ‘ignorant’ bit, and the ‘lefty’ bit, but much to your shame, you omitted the ‘loathing’.
Please, don’t do that again. Do not leave out the ‘loathing’! LOL
ESJ-Former Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir dies at 91
http://ynet.realnews.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3384439,00.html
Now that would put me up 2 to 0 but … it appears it belongs to the “Premature Obituary Scandal” category. Evidently Pope John Paul II’s death was reported THREE times prematurely. The wonders of the internet.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_premature_obituaries#The_CNN.com_incident
BTW I’m still fuming about the Avery Dulles incident
Do you know he was the son of a sec of state diogenes?
No I was the ron who said most ‘Howard’ Liberals are Pauline Hansonites in gay
i think we are 3 weeks away from the end of the criminal Bush/Clinton era.
20 years of political wretchedness.
one scary thing to consider though is that, if Hilary throws in the inevitable towel after March 4, the braindead Bush and his maniacal supporters could panic.
the War Party thought the transition to Hillary or McCain or Romney would be seamless. Obama would be getting them skittish.
even though it seems impossible for them to be able to gin up a war with Iran now, if it looks like Obama for POTUS(which it will) as the election nears , Bush could do something monumentally stupid that would plunge America further into the depths.
The American people are largely sick of war, but the War Party maintains an unquenchable thirst.
But ronnie biggs is looking good too Diogenes and Gough looked infirm (note he does no more interviews on the insistence of the family)
and the rodent is too scared to turn up to Parliament to be shunned
ESJ- I knew he was related to the “Dulles Airport” somehow. Wik tells me his great-grandfather and his great-uncle were also Secretary of State. Three SOS’s from the same family is amazing.
Ummm I wouldn’t mind adding Osama bin Laden to my list. His life is going to lose all meaning if a fellow Muslim terrorist-supporter with a middle name like Hussein becomes POTUS. I’m betting he is PRAYING Macca gets in.
837
Ron
Don’t forget that last year ESJ was so far up the Rodent’s rear end we couldn’t hear what he was saying half the time, and wished we couldn’t the other half.
Oh, but that was then, and his team lost, but he still trolls around here like he’s got a clue, but we know otherwise.
He’s really just Glen’s alter ego in drag.
Fetching.
but he is so precious & thin skinned
Pauline needs to toughen up her troops
ESJ- In OBL’s favour for staying alive (and against Gough) is the well-known medical fact that bitterness and hatred are incredibly good preservatives. I was lamenting the longevity of one of my colleagues today and was reminded of this gloomy fact. But if Bami gets in, what’s he got to live for I ask you?
Beware ESJ you might just get what you wished for. Your beating around the head with a thick volume of Kapital may actually be delivered by a bearded and burly member of the MUA. And just before you lose consciousness you will realise to your horror that it is a bearded and burly female member of the MUA.
But, of course, as a public school boy, there is no guarantee that horror may actually be a secret delight.
Robert
You have him joyous in anticipation
Diogenes , Malcolm 7 Gough buried their differences 10 years ago
..where’s the bitterness evident
Ron-My point was that Gough does NOT have any bitterness left so his life isn’t being “preserved” any more, hence his notable decline (possibly into senility if his family won’t let him do interviews anymore. For someone who loved to talk as much as him, stopping doing interviews must be a bad sign).
or the answer simply may be he’s 91
I have 2 relatives in their 90’s
….both active but not bitter types but age has wearied one but not the other
The contagion, like plague, is spreading:
The credit crisis paining Wall Street is reaching out across the nation, afflicting municipalities, hospitals and cultural touchstones like the Metropolitan Museum of Art.
In recent days another large but obscure corner of the financial world has come under acute stress. Alarmed by the running turmoil in the debt markets, investors have refused to buy certain securities that not long ago many regarded as equivalent to cash.
Even though the securities are long term, banks hold auctions periodically to set the interest rates. During the last three days, almost 1,000 of these auctions failed because there were not enough buyers. The banks that marketed the instruments, known as auction-rate securities, also declined to buy.
The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey now finds itself paying a rate of 20 percent on $100 million of its debt, almost quadruple its costs a week ago. The Metropolitan Museum of Art is now paying 15 percent on auction securities. It is unclear how long such high rates will persist, or when the market for these instruments will revive, if at all.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/15/business/15muni.html?ref=business
…and it’s reaching far and wide in a credit crunch that’s chewing up borrowers at an alarming rate.
An interesting comment on the Clinton campaign and one of the murkier recesses of Democrat politics:
http://leninology.blogspot.com/2008/02/hillary-clintons-latest-recruit.html
No 849
Mr Bernanke’s snap interest rate cuts will certainly not help either. That will simply fuel more debt.
you entirely missed the point
its not debt they are worrying about but the collapse of the dollar & economic activity…….Greenspan’s legacy
834 KR – [ha! That pretty much sums it up, but you forgot one word: “loathing”
…as in: “ignorant loathing lefties”]
Sorry KR that I appeared to be loath to use loathing.
Now you mention it, I remember the word being used to disparage Obama supporters in that discussion way back somewhere, possibly in early January. You clearly never, never forget.
Diogenes – You were worried that there was no thoracic or cardiology specialist in Darwin for Ramos-Horta, but I presume there were 30 or 40 of them flown in very quickly.
853
jaundiced view
You are forgiven JV, but remember we are all ILL here: ‘Ignorant Loathing Lefties’
But do not speak ill of the ILL. I for one will, as you say, never forget! LOL
well the right are known for their social compassion KR
Diogenes
His life is going to lose all meaning if a fellow Muslim terrorist-supporter with a middle name like Hussein becomes POTUS
What policy or lack there of in Obama makes you believe this way ?
Doctor D at 820, that’s great news about Jose Ramos Horta.
and at 847, father time is catching up with the old patrician, as indeed he does to all of us. Goughie’s never been the same since his “boy” Mark lost the plot at the business end of the 2004 election. I wonder how JRH really feels about how Gough “looked the other way” when Jerry Ford and Henry Kissinger personally green-lighted Suharto to “go for it” and invade Timor L’Este in 1975, and the subsequent systematic slaughter of some 200,000 innocents in the years 75-98.
Guess we’ll have to wait till JRH fully recovers and writes his memoirs.
————————————————————-
With pals like The Imbecile, I reckon McCain will be electorally horse-whipped by Obama in a way that even the dodgies from Diebold couldn’t fix. Providing of course The Kid stays alive. Pity there isn’t a way he could be “immunised” from getting whacked.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=A0WTUZFkhrVHocEA6RMHcggF
856 Ron-my reference to fellow Muslin terrorist-supporter was completely facetious.
853 jv- I made some inquiries into the surgeon’s involved in Ramos-Horta’s care. While none were specialist cardiac or chest surgeons, several of the local general surgeons are well-trained in chest trauma, especially the professor of surgery, and they were more than able to manage him extremely well.
855
Ron
yeah, we’ve seen some of that lately, haven’t we? From Iron Bar to Horatio Hornet, they’ve pretty much disgraced themselves.
But they do believe in what’s called the ‘trickle down effect’, whereby monstrous benefits accrue to the rich through overly generous tax arrangements, and then, from a great height, they p1ss on the poor, and of course, that’s how you get the trickle down effect.
Simple, really.
Oh dear, am I being too ILL?
For a moment I had the hope that Adam was back to keep all of us wacky tobaccy leftists from having the audacity to assume that Americans would vote for someone who had different skin colour to them.
We miss you Adam wherever you are!
And I stick to my prediction from 4 or 5 threads ago that if Obama didn’t lose Sup Tuesday by more than 100 he would win the nomination. A prediction I would gladly have let everyone forget if it looked like he was losing around now
858
Diogenes
facetious , but its a label the conservatives would like to portray him as but its alittle too rough even in swift boating
Obama is arguing a more balanced approach midddle east approach and presumably you do not agree ?
no you are not ILL.
its why since 1996 we not only have increased non means tested middle class welfare but upper income welfare………….and no money spent on infrastructure
Erytnicam , he’s here under a disguise ‘right’ blog
Ron – I’m still wading through books on the middle east and don’t know enough to have an educated opinion, so I shut up when the Middle East is mentioned.
From my superficial knowledge and from Chalmers Johnson’s tick of approval, I think Obama has the best Middle East approach of the candidates. Billary is too pro-Israel to get anywhere and Macca is barking mad in his foreign policy.
Diogenes , your opinion is well founded from Chalmers Johnson’s tick of approval
and your own observations
Generally Obama is proposing a carrot & stick approach with strong diplomacy & economic threads.
What has not worked for 40 years is either too pro-Israel approach nor the isolation of Iran or Syria , nor the support of the Shah of Iran nor the Iraq war
It has bred dangerous terrorism , potential nuke development in 2 countries and an over reliance on supporting despotic Arab rulers who control oil
Ron @ 862 – [Erytnicam , he’s here under a disguise ‘right’ blog]
I don’t think he is. There’s no-one else with the same declamatory directness that attempts (but fails) to brook no argument.
Diogenes – [I’m still wading through books on the middle east and don’t know enough to have an educated opinion, so I shut up when the Middle East is mentioned.]
Don’t yer worry too much ’bout book lernin. Only the one book yer need to read to know most ev’thing. In the good ol’ USA anyways. Gets ‘em through the days and into the wars. Only problem is ain’t no chapter in the Good Book ’bout gettin’ back on out, when ye cain’t kill all the heathens right off.
interesting development
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/NL14372119.htm
“Some analysts have said the visit would irk Washington, but the White House on Thursday voiced support for the trip, so long as Iran stopped supporting militias in Iraq. Ahmadinejad often speaks out against the U.S. military presence in Iraq”
866 Gusface – Interesting because it’s a bit of a wedge for the US.
A. Looks good that the propped up Iraqi ‘government’ gets legitimacy and recognition of another nation
B. Looks bad because the US wants to demonise Iran but they allow the evil Iran to be received ibn Iraq by the new regime when they have, what, 140,000 troops in occupation?
C. But wait – a Third Way (perhaps suggested by Tony Blair!) Maybe this is a ploy to get out of Iraq if Iran will take some responsibility to assist the new government – Shi-ite to Shi-ite. Which means the US do a deal with Iran and go softer on their nuclear aspirations whle Iran deploys trrops in Iraq under the auspices of the Iraq govt of course. The Shi-ites win. Shame about the other groups.
All conjecture of course but something’s going on with the US allowing this visit to happen.
jaundiced view
option c
perhaps with an eye on the upcoming presidential election bush 2 has finally listened to bush 1
interestingly i heard/read somewhere that gadaffi had played a role (whether directly or as ‘neutral ground’) in negotiations
in terms of geopolitics the superpowers have done a deal methinks
we live in very interesting times
“Former Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir dies at 91″
The British should have hung the terrorist 60 years ago.
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HarryH @ 838
“The American people are largely sick of war,”
Not sure about that. I think it’s more that they are largely sick of loosing wars
The polls inicate a narrowing is on in Texas – a nice steeply rising Obama narrowing. It reminds me of California, which begs the question: how much pre-poll voting is there likely to be in Texas? There is an element of caucusing in some areas, so I’m presuming this at least reduces some of Clinton’s pre-poll advantage.
Newsradio is starting a regular US election program at 12:30 today. Just in case you can’t get enough politics. Here’s where to find Newsradio for those who don’t know.
http://www.abc.net.au/newsradio/listen/
870 Robert B
I wonder if the advantage to Clinton in the pre-polls will disappear now that the tide has well and truly turned for Obama. Clinton was still the favourite for the nomination in the period before California on super Tuesday remember. Now the writing is on the wall.
jv-that’s a good point I hadn’t considered. I’d imagine most pre-polls would favour Obama at the moment and if there were a significant number eg 20%, it would mean Billary has shift the momentum even further to make up for the pre-polls
Diogenes – Did you see the article discussed in the early hours above posted by Gusface (at 866-868) about the Iranian visit to Iraq? What do you reckon are the ulterior motives of the Bush admin in that? For Iran to cover for them in Iraq while the US can plan withdrawal – to help McCain?
Wisconsin is going to be interesting, and as usual, the voters being polled are not very certain just yet:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama with a narrow four-point advantage over Clinton, 47% to 43%. Nearly one-fourth of the voters say there’s a good chance they might change their mind. Five percent (5%) of those who currently support Obama and Clinton say there’s a good chance they could change their mind before voting.
…I’m not quite sure how to interpret that, but it seems to say that 25% of voters who are yet committed, aren’t yet committed! LOL
While only 5% of committed voters are possible waverers.
Ah, psephology, the art of reading entrails!
874
jaundiced view
I don’t think the US is overly pleased with the Shiite junta (replete with death squads, ethnic cleansers, and the usual corruption) that squats in the Green Zone. Especially since the majority of them have deep Iranian connections, and those that don’t, like Muqtada al Sadr, run their own anti-US militia, and snipe at those that do, (literally!).
The close ties with Tehran are not something the US can do anything about, and in some ways they must allow if they ever want to get out in one piece, because Iran can and must play a big role in keeping the fractious Shiites together.
On the other side, the Sunni are sh!tting themselves that if they don’t get armed and organised enough before the US leaves, they are toast, as there will be no stopping the ethnic cleansing in the few remaining Sunni areas of Baghdad and any remaining mixed populations elsewhere.
So the Yanks are between Iraq and hard place, they need the Iranians to support the Shiite government, but the downside is that the Sunni are enraged that the country they fought for a decade in the eighties is now chummy with the government of their county.
Anyone who thinks the ’surge’ has done anything but given the Sunni time to build up their own forces is just living in fantasy land. This ain’t over, not by a very long shot, and the little lull before the storm is not ‘victory’ or ‘mission accomplished’ or any other assinine term some Whitehouse spokesdrone wants to call it.
KR – Agreed- I just suspect the yanks are up to something involving Iran aimed at getting themselves out of the mess, and hang the consequences.
not sure j/v the Iraq & Iran Shiite leaders already had historical close relations when Iraq was under the minority Sunni leadership. Now those same Shiite Iraqi’s are in leadership of Iraq….strenghtening Iran’s position in ME
yet US policy pre invasion was to counter Iran’s THEN influence…suceeded ?
811 Jen, Max 812, jaundiced et al
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In Adam & co’s absence, you can crow your smug delight at me instead. I’m tough, I can take it (and I have the time on my hands), I’m used to be on the losing side, voting ALP all through the Howard years, even trying hard to find something to motivate my support for Latham (talk about difficult ask! LOL). I even liked Keating, despite thinking he made a really BIG MISTAKE in going for PM. He was a good Treasurer, being PM was just not his forte.
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but back to the Obama Phenomenon..
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.. barely 6 weeks into the US election year, and its all over (bar the shouting and fireworks!) According to 15 major national US media networks, dozens of regional ones, 4,213,987 websites, blogs, forums, podcasts, streaming broadcasts, 50 opinion polls (per week), betting markets, Utube…and the list goes on. Including the dozen or so regulars on Pollbludger. Its all over, done and dusted, the bitch is toast, and Obama will take McCain in November, for a New World Order.
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I hate to be the pessimist, the misery-guts at the party, but its still a loooong way to November guys. Its still a long way, just to the Party Conventions.
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As for the numbers on the Dems primaries, admittedly they are record turn-outs for the Dems, but still a long, (very long) way below the average voter turn-outs on election day. Even at the highest turnout US elections, around one third of eligible voters do not vote. I guess they belong to the “Can’t be Farq’ed, Prefer to Watch the Game” Party.
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The low numbers attending Primaries, (especially caucuses) even in record numbers on previous history, aren’t indicative of anything, let alone any sort of measure of electability, or a “mood for (real) change” sweeping the nation.
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Oz numbers weren’t THAT good either, in the final wash-up. Rudd did not get a landslide. We just like to think so
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Secondly, Clinton’s support may be trailing Obama’s in the primary tallies to date, but its still nothing to sneeze at or treat with such disdain and contempt, even if he does win. She’s not losing by much, and probably will not lose by so very much (if she does). Thats still a lot of core Democrat Party grass-roots rank-and-file support.
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pro-Obama sites, TV and radio networks, probably outweigh pro-Clinton by about 10 or even 20 to one. Just my own perception, impression etc – but many aren’t so much about supporting *him* as their preferred candidate, but in attacking *her*. Almost a blood sport, they don’t want their candidate to win as much, as they want her to lose, and lose badly, in a crushing humiliating public defeat for their entertainment.
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If thats what the vision of “unity”, and “hope” and “change” is all about, then count me out, OK?
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This grass-roots Party faithful support, even if second-best, (and a very large second-best) is the one group being pissed off the most. Not so much by Obama himself, but by the very vocal rabid frothing-at-the-mouth Clinton-hating crowds following him.
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This was why the New Mexico primary count had to take so long, so many Independents and out-of-state registrants (ineligible voters trying to vote twice) showed up, it took forever to double-check the eligibility of voter registrations.
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The majority of Clinton/Edwards etc supporters, who nearly always vote in primaries, are the ground-troops of the Democrat Party. They are the ones who have been volunteering in campaigns since the year dot, doing the hard foot-slog of letterboxing, shopping malls, booths, and are especially critical in swing-states, due to the stupid Electoral College winner-takes-all system. Remember Rudd’s call only days before our election? ” Door-knock until your hands bleed” – and aussies did, in large numbers, coz they were motivated to do so. Again, remember it was not a landslide here. Piss off this large contingent of core sidewalk slogging Democrats, by insulting them, offending them, laughing at them, putting them down as idiots and fools, cheering wildly with popcorn and champers with the “bitch is toast” will not help Obama come November. As one State Dem delegate said ‘If we treat nearly half our people like crap, we’re farqed’. They may still vote mostly for Obama on election day, but if even a small percentage decide to sit it out and watch the ballgame in a swing-state in November, or call into to their local branch when asked to volunteer to leaflet at a shopping mall, they are likely to say ” Not this year, mate. Too busy”.
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They know their system, they know the DNC rules, and they know that the primaries are meant to be just Party pre-selections, and get *input* from the rank-and-file on campaign strategies in states, and Open ones are supposed to be where the new and curious can find out more info, be encouraged to become registered Party voters/members, not *decide* the freaking nomination. And stick to the calendar, the States are in a particular order for a reason. Super-Tuesday is the big one that truly counts. In Florida for example, the state legislature is Republican dominated and they pushed it through for their own reasons, and I think they swung it so they only lost half their delegates, LOL.
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And all this supposed groundswell of support for Obama, if only say – 3-5% of these new primary voters, the Indies, crossing-floor soft Repubs, are just early hangers-on and rabid anti-Clintonites, (which is very different to being pro-Obama) once they have completely toasted the bitch, and they are all smug, smirky and satisfied, will they still be around to vote in November?
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but according to everybody, especially multinational megacorp dominated US media outlets, and all their global offspring, its only 6 weeks in, with nearly 9 months to go to the Big Day, and its all over, done and dusted, the Bitch is Dead (best part of all, huh?) and Obama will lead the world into a new era of truth, justice and the American Way.
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kr,jv
i agree re the deep doo-doos that is iraq- at present
but certain external forces are probably driving a resolution
China,India,Pakistan,Turkey,Russia, all have strategic,economic
and ethnic/religious interest
China olympics is soon- nothing will be allowed to distract attention from this display of china’s status
India-modernising like nobody’s business also has some critical interests/needs in the region-will brook no attempt to forestall its rush to being number 1
Pakistan-the joker in the pack (but neutered by having no patron)
Turkey-still wants to resolve ww1 borders also increasing islamic extremism
Russia-Vlad justs wants to be left alone as Tsar-the most malleable of the five
(until russia sorts its soul out)
ultimately who this favours will remain to be seen
mccain will lose his “war” card and anyway i think the repubs are sunk ths time
hilary/obama will face a few very hard decisions
Rain @ 879- I reckon the MSM attacks on Clinton are almost all from the conservatives, not from Obama’s people. It’s all because of the excess baggage Clinton brought on the cruise, the weight of which is going to drag her underwater like a stove tied to her ankle.
Is it ’smug, smirky and satisfied’ to be pleased that a candidate with what appears from a distance to be a penchant for real change in US policies is also resonating with the American people? If so, I’m in that club.
Yes, it’s only a relative handful of swinging voters who are making the difference, but that’s always the case – as it is here, as you say.
What I still don’t understand is where your rusted-on Clintonism could possibly come from. As a liberal (?) surely you don’t prefer more of the same old US policies? Don’t you want to see your American friends and relatives with a better health system? And with a new approach to the M East? With less chance of being attacked by terrorists? Tell me how Obama offers less than Clinton in those areas.
Gusface @ 880 – Yes, plenty of pressure no doubt is being applied. If McCain doesn’t win, Obama will be much more open to the other nations’ ideas for a resolution.
Hi Rain -
You