Been a bit busy lately, so it’s past time for a new US elections thread. Since Super Tuesday we’ve had an anticipated string of Barack Obama victories from caucuses in Nebraska, Washington and Maine and a primary in Louisiana, along with a narrow win for John McCain in Washington and probably meaningless victories for Mike Huckabee in Kansas and Louisiana. Tomorrow US time we have both parties holding primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,263 Comments
I think if Obama wins his running mate should be Evan Bayh. From a medium sized red state Indiana. Not that much older than Obama. Was governor at a very young age. Endorsed Clinton so would appease Hillary backers. He had an extremely good record as governor and achieved the largest margin of victory for a democrat in his state for the senate. From the a conservative wing of the democrats. Plus if really lucky any small native son effect might spill over the border to western Ohio
1170 Jen Says: “The ‘Obama is different thing’ is potent for those of us who aspire to see real change, and Hillary represents the old order.”
.
Thnx Jen, I been wondering why so many have all-but-deified Obama as some sort of saint, while contrasting Clinton as one of the Four Horse(wo)men of the Apocalypse.
.
Forget the vitriol against Clinton, I’m more astonished by the squeaky-clean vision of sainthood being bestowed on Obama by all and sundry. Anybody would think he was Nelson Mandela, Mahatma Ghandi and Superman all rolled into one, fighting for truth, justice and the American way (minus the cape).
.
I’m sorry, I don’t buy it. For those aspiring to see “real change”, ( I’m sorry again, I keep choking with laughter on that one) I may be a pessimist, or a bit thick – but this is the USA we are talking about, isn’t it?
.
OOpps..sorry…wrong thead.. muchas apologias
1181
MayoFeral
You beat me to it, and said it all.
So, a running mate for McCain? How about…
McCain and Zimmer Frame
McCain and Imperial Pretensions
McCain and Economics 101
McCain and Neocon Circus
McCain and Hard Right Supreme Court
McCain and ‘Pro-Life’ (Read: No Choice)
…they sound like winners to me.
(There ya go zoom, is that better? LOL)
zoom,
the reason we were having some fun about Clinton is precisely because she’s renknown for holding grudges and can be pretty vicious, even to other Democrats. Don’t kid yourself she’s just ‘misunderstood’, she can get ugly, and so we were having a bit of fun about it.
Sorry if the comic satire isn’t to your taste, but believe me, it’s mostly in fun, but Clinton’s reaction to losing sure as hell won’t be!
Rain @ 2, I think you have Baracknophobia.
Rain at 2
For all the hyperbole, I haven’t anyone classify Obama as a saint, nor Hillary as the devil incarnate.
The consensus appears to simply be that Obama is a superior candidate to Hillary in many respects. I’m sure Hillary has her advantages too.
Unfortunately, we cannot package together the two with all their advantages and none of their disadvantages.
Nevertheless, I’m sure either candidate will comprehensively thrash the republicans (even McCain, who isn’t too bad as republicans are concerned).
Unless Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton dramatically change the current trend, a hung convention seems certain with all the accompanying problems. Because of the proportional allocation of delegates it’s likely to be close till the end. The role of the super delegates will be crucial and controversial and may help the Republicans.
I suspect that all the SuperDelegates will get together and vote for whichever candidate has more elected delegates. I suspect that will be Obama, he’s well ahead on that score.
They will make this clear well before the convention and so the convention will be the appropriate “crowning” rather than an actual negotiation.
That’s what Dean has been hinting at.
Rain -
Whitehouse…Black president.
How much change do you need, woman?
I don’t know which thread this belongs on but further to a question Rain (?) posted on teh previous topic, here is a link to an excellent article in the Economist on the likely geographical distribution of the US recession (and they are not talking about it hypothetically). See
http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10650727
The worst hit states are forecast to be Michigan, Florida, California, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, and a clutch of central states (Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri) that already have the highest unemployment.
Note that several of these (notably Michigan and Ohio) are swing states.
This person does a “Possum” with Obama’s numbers:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/9/13227/22519/239/453361
Al said on the previous thread:
“From the haven of neutral political coverage, Fox News are reporting that Mike Huckabee is challenging result of the Washington caucuses”
Al, I hope you had tongue firmly in cheek when you used Fox and neutral political coverage in the same sentence
Considering the model as put forward in that previous post has Obama running close in Maine and Washington, we can call it pretty ‘conservative’! LOL
Rain @ 2 – I certainly don’t see Clinton as the devil incarnate, and why see seems to be so hated by many Americans puzzles me.
However, I wouldn’t vote for her. Her willingness to vote for most of Bush’s worse policies suggests that as Prez she would bring little new thinking to the job – she’s too integrated with the Washington establishment and we’re likely to see many of Bill’s cabinet recyclede, and I don’t believe she would try too hard to get out of Iraq.
OTOH, I know little about Obama. Frankly, I’m suspicious of politicians that are heavy on rhetoric. IME, most of it ends up being only BS. A link on Clinton -v- Obama’s voting record posted earlier today by Rates Analysis adds to my suspicion.
It’s not so much what he voted for or against, though some concern me, but the number of contentious issues he failed to vote on that have me wondering. Did he have valid reasons for missing the vote or did he miss them so that future opponents would have less to hammer him on?
These are of particular concern:
Jun-07 – Attorney General No Confidence Vote: Vote so that a fillibuster can’t be used for the vote of no-confidence for Attorney General Gonzales Jul-07 – Sense of the Senate on Guantanamo Bay Detainees: Vote that the Guantanamo detainees not be released on American soil or transferred to American facilities Sep-07 – Expressing the Sense of Congress Regarding Federalism in Iraq: Vote to support the opinion that Iraq work toward a loose federalist state and that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard be considered a terrorist organization Sep-07 – Expressing the Sense of Congress Regarding Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: Vote to support the opinion that the United States should use its military, diplomatic, economic, and intelligence instruments to combat Iranian activities inside Iraq that are designed to destabilize Iraq
Bush has offered to support McCain.
The Kiss of Death descends on the republicans.
Mayo-that is the point as far I’m concerned.
Clinton supported the war in Iraq, therefore she is closely aligned with the thinking and political manouevering that has brought us (the West) to where we are today.
Obama , on the other hand has been an outspoken critic of the invasion, and therefore represents a view that the neo-conservative approach to dealing with the many fraught and dangerous situations we face is not the way to go. He may not have the answers, nor is he the Messiah, but he does encapsulate a wllingness to approach the presidency differently, and Hillary doesn’t on her past form. Therefore I hope he wins.
Glen- The name I hear the most as VP for Macca is Gov Pawlenty. Evidently a rising Repug star. Impeccable conservative and popular.
Clinton has sacked her manager:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/us/politics/11dems.html?hp
Basil: What could be at all biased about a network that asks the question “George Bush: Good President, or Best President Ever?”
Listening to Obama’s speech on CNN yesterday, it struck me how good an orator he was. It was a huge contrast from the current President, and surely something that Americans pick up on.
Al, what was his famous quote about fool me once, you cant get fooled agin or some such, I guess that kinda applies to Fox’s question, que.
Ahhh, I knew I’d find it:
“There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.”
Obama says it all about Hillary (and no nasties either, zoom)
She’s a smart person, she’s a capable person, she would be a vast improvement over the incumbent,” he said in response to a question at a rally with 3,000 people, with 1,200 more listening in an overflow room. “What is also true is, I think it’s very hard for Senator Clinton to break out of the politics of the last 15 years.”
The pattern appears to continue as on Super Tuesday, with Obama winning (with varying degrees of convincingness) many States, and Clinton thrashing him in the larger States (Ohio, Texas, etc.). Quite frankly, it would be suicidal for the Dems to refuse to seat the delegates from Florida (4th-largest state in USA) and Michigan (8th-largest). Both States could vote Republican this election if spurned by the Democrats.
This leaves two options:
1. Hold a re-vote and seat the subsequently elected delegates. This would spark resentment among the voters, and those of us who remember the Lindsay re-poll in 1996 should remember how the electorate rewards being forced to the polls again – with a more convincing performance in the same direction (in these cases, a strong Clinton win, at least in Florida – Michigan would be more problematic).
2. Seat the current delegates. This would cause strife within the Democrat camp, as Clinton critics would accuse her of gaining an unfair advantage (mostly over her alleged campaigning in Florida – it appears to have just been a few fundraiser events), and it would cast doubt on the legitimacy of the process if these votes made the difference between Clinton gaining or losing the nomination (as they may very well do).
Overall, the best of two bad options (there is NO good choice here) is to hold a revote. This would remove the ambiguity from these two very important States, and clear up questions within the nomination.
Mathew Cole at 24
The pattern has only continued up to the part where Obama has been winning smaller states. Whilst undoubtedly favourite in Ohio and Texas, I highly doubt that Clinton will thrash Obama in those states.
I agree there needs to be a revote in Florida and Michigan presuming matters are not decided before then.
Rain #2
Perhaps if there was no big O and the contest was Clinton vs McCain ,
what would blogers say ?
I’d be saying I’m with Clinton particularly universal healthcare principle but disagree on her initial Iraq & Guantanamo support , her over zealous Israel support vs Palstinians , her flip flop re Immigration licences , some questions on economics
and my perception Hillay’s political expediency is stronger than her policy purity
Obama I feel is stronger than Hillay on ALL of the above except economically where I reserve……now do you have any spare ice mate
18
Diogenes Says:
True as he’s from a Purple State, nevertheless, McCain needs someone young but also conservative he may go with Tim Pawlenty but he could choose, Bobby Jindal the Indian-American Louisiana Governor, Charlie Crist the Floridian Governor, Congressman Paul Ryan a 38 year old from Wisconsin or Mike Pence from Indiana.
McCain will have a lot of choices as he could go for Rice or Powell if he wanted to and perhaps should if Obama wins the Democratic nomination. But what he needs is a darling of the conservatives, who’s younger than 71 and someone who wont scare off independents which counts our Huckleberry or Romoromon.
Ron -
if it was down to Clinton vs McCain: no contest. Democrat over Repug all the way.
However, right now we (they, but it impacts on us all) get to choose.
So aim high.
If the conservative, parochial US can elect a black president who rejects the currrent warmongering approach to global politics then something big is happening.
Even if he does do the Ra-Ra rally crap, which I really don’t like.
No offence, but absolute nonsense. It would be highly, highly problematic to give any credibility to any ‘result’ in those states at present – this would favour Clinton, and would thus be tainted given that she breached the spirit of the ‘no campaigning’ deal.
I tend to agree with whoever said that it would not be surprising to see the superdelegates vote for whoever had the bare majority on the non-superdelegate count. Although on the other hand I read an article today suggesting that Clinton has about twice as many superdelegates who have committed to vote for her as Obama does.
As for the “why do people hate Hillary” thing – some observations/opinions:
- hard right wingers hate how “non-traditional” a woman she is and are automatically repelled by the notion of a powerful yet compassionate woman
- the right also hate her for trying to introduce socialised healthcare and thereby bring the US up to date with the rest of the civilised world
- she is emblematic of the perceived problems of the Clinton Administration, including supposed moral weakness (”moral” in the Bible bashing sense)
- some people honestly believe that women lack the capacity to rule
- on the left, many see her as hawkish (which she certainly is) on foreign policy and regard this as inconsistent with her supposed liberalism
- on the left there is also a perception that she and Bill are ruthless and prepared to trample all who get in their way. Her machine has a way of creating that air too – just look at how every single thing Obama does carries an echo from the Clinton machine talking it down or criticising it or calling him a hypocrite as appropriate
- Clinton takes a great deal of money from certain industries (e.g. big drug companies) which is entirely at odds with her supposed centre left values (Obama is no angel in this regard either).
“But what he needs is a darling of the conservatives, who’s younger than 71 and someone who wont scare off independents which counts our Huckleberry or Romoromon.”
Maybe he should try Hugh Grant.
Also, it will be very interesting to see the next few primaries – I have a feeling Obama will romp them in.
My reasoning: previously, there was an underlying assumption that, although Obama was interesting to Democrat voters, he would ultimately be wiped out on Super Tuesday. As such he was never considered a ‘real’ candidate.
Now, however, there is a realisation that he could actually win the candidacy, with a secondary realisation that he is more than capable of taking on the Republicans, whoever they should nominate.
As such I think a number of people who would have voted for Clinton as the inevitable choice will now reconsider and may well vote for Obama as both a realistic but idealistic choice.
Agreed Patrick -
it’s the Momentum.
And the party will back who can win.
And right now, it looks like Obama.
But that’s just it – the Republicans have completely forgotten what “conservative” means. The only type of candidate who would meet the above description would be an old school Reaganite conservative, i.e., someone who believes that the government’s role in the lives of citizens should be minimised.
The problem is, the Republicans at the moment only believe in small government when it comes to the rich paying taxes, but when it comes to the PATRIOT Act mandating brain implants to monitor citizens they’re all for it. Likewise they believe that religion should be freely expressed, but simultaneously accept that fundamentalist Christianity should be rammed down everybody’s throats. And on and on – position after position that is in theory broadly conservative but in practice little more than invasive social engineering. As such, they scare the absolute s##t out of moderates and progressives.
I guess what I’m saying is – they have forgotten their all-important libertarian streak, just like the Liberal Party in Australia. They need to rediscover the message that a strong country comes from the government just getting out of your face and letting you live your life with genuine freedom.
The only candidate who is even close to that is Ron Paul, and they would never in a million years let him become the VP candidate.
Krugman’s article in the NY Times picks up on some of the points that Rain makes.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/opinion/11krugman.html?hp
The cult of personality and unfair rhetoric aimed at RHC is pervasive. Obama would be a fine POTUS, but so would RHC. I see her in the Kevin Rudd mould, a capable administrator and manager, and like her husband able to grasp the detail in complex policies. Obama seems more in the Reagan mould, the great communicator who delegates everything.
PB #29,
Had you bothered to read my whole post, you would have noted that I advocated a re-vote rather than simply seating the current delegates. Quite frankly, if you want to make yourself look stupid by asserting that Florida (for example) could never vote Republican even if the Democrats insult them as well as by ignoring half of my post when replying to it, go ahead and be my guest – it should be amusing.
Mathew, my apologies – I didn’t read your whole post.
I do, however, disagree. The only way that the issue will become problematic is if the Clintons are allowed to revive it at the time of the caucus proper.
There is no way (IMHO) that Democrats and independents in those states will vote Republican just because they have been denied the chance to select the Democrat candidate.
One reason people oppose Hillary is the dynasty thing. They’ve had nearly twenty years of Bushes and Clintons, and are looking for a change.
Good point, and that leads to a perception of an air of entitlement in the Clinton camp – like the nomination is theirs and Obama is trying to steal it from them.
PB #36,
They don’t have to vote Republican for (especially) Florida to fall. They just have to not vote, which is far more likely if they feel disgusted with the whole shebang than if their voice is acknowledged. The Republican voters will do the rest.
True, but on the other hand – the ones who would be put off would have voted for the unsuccessful primary candidate anyway.
So for instance, is a Clinton fan who never got to vote in a primary less likely to vote for Obama than a Clinton fan who did get to vote in a primary and lost (overall)?
A valid point PB, but people will be feeling bitter more over not having their voices heard than over the fact that the other candidate got up for the nomination. A lot of people out there would consider it to be a matter of principle, and react accordingly.
If you’re happy and you know it, clap your hands!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23194566-601,00.html
I posted a link on the other thread that outlined the options for Florida/Michigan Dems.
1. Have another primary or caucus as they see fit.
2. Appeal to the DNC for a ruling – neither have done so at the moment.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080207/pl_bloomberg/atlh4uuvj_ti;_ylt=Ah6iZtwlX8a2fERs6UWksjOM5QcF
GG-
how can we convince him to stay?
Gotta work in our favour.
Or alternatively, will Floridians recognise that their voice was diminished by the (Florida) Republican Party introducing legislation bringing forward their primary day in contravention of both Republican and Democratic Party rules and retaliate against the party that caused the problem in the first place?
I still think that if Clinton seriously pushes to get the Florida’s and Michigan’s delegates seated (which the latter being completely ridiculous with Michigan’s ballot paper having no Edwards, Richardson, Biden or Obama), it will hurt her with superdelegates; possibly with extra emphasis in the traditionally early states, such as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Glen- I’ve looked a bit more at Tim Pawlenty and he’s very impressive. I note the Repug National Conference is being held in his home town, St Pauls. Also, something amazing has happened in Minnesota. In 1984 it was the ONLY state not to vote Reagan and now it’s on the red side of purple. He has some valuable attributes to Macca:
1. Young
2. Very popular amongst Conservatives
3. Good speaker
4. Purple state
5. Expertise in health care (I saw Sicko last night, boy do they need that!)
6. Interested in climate change (not sure how the US views this issue)
7. Keen on trade with China
8. Retired a deficit without raising taxes
Looks like he might fit your description of “what he needs is a darling of the conservatives, who’s younger than 71 and someone who wont scare off independents”.
While we are on Veeps, it would seem that Richardson could be a good combination with Obama, would help to build the Latino vote.
That’s it! Obama is stuffed! Completely ruined, hexed, jinxed, or however you want to say it:
William Kristol has written an Op Ed in the NYTimes which says Obama is the likely winner!
OMG!!!!!!!!
William Kristol has NEVER been right in his entire life!
oh, the tragedy, oh the humanity!!!
So close, so close, so close we could smell the victory rising up on wings of hope, but alas, the curse of William Kristol has struck down Obama in his prime!
William Kristol, what have you done???????????
Zedder @ 34 – Thnx for that link, it largely echoes my concerns, especially the line:
.
“I won’t try for fake evenhandedness here: most of the venom I see is coming from supporters of Mr. Obama, who want their hero or nobody.”
.
Rightly or wrongly, thats been my perception too. Its also not whether either is a sore loser, but whether their voter supporters are. Clinton voters will likely continue to vote for Obama in the Big One in November, despite their disappointment – but I dont see that in the reverse scenario, the Obama supporters have been somewhat feral, (eg the ‘South Park’ attacks have been extroardinarily over-the-top vicious, but have left Repubs alone?) and the Obama camp might force the nomination on grounds of threatening to be very sore losers, far more than Clinton’s.
.
As for numbers of delegates and states won, Its all in the swing-states – with large solid red and blue states, doesn’t matter much whether Clinton or Obama wins X more or less candidacy Delegates in those states, no matter how *big* they are, or how popular the vote was. Its which candidate can win the key swing-states, and thats where unpledged super-delegates come in to play I guess – which is interesting – two of the largest swing-states are Florida and Michigan.
.
Except all those wins (no matter how useless or meaningless they are in reality) boosts morale and momentum in the remaining states.
.
Which sounds politically very fishy to me. Thats maybe why they weren’t allowed to go to primaries early in the first place (despite giving plenty of advance notice), Florida/Michigan delegates can’t be allowed to be seated, the only option is to re-poll. So clinton is damned if she does, damned if she doesn’t – either way, she’s toast, and perhaps that was designed that way by all the Dems who hate her. But they can’t have her burned at the stake, (she’s still a high-profile Dem, after all) so they’ll make it look like she only lost by a little bit.
.
The third option, which is overwhelmingly most likely to happen is that the delegates will be seated by a motion from the floor of the convention after the nomination is settled.
My motto in life has always been “Worship no man”. He is not a messiah, just a naughty boy who speaks well.
HuffPo Header:
“Weekend At HILLARY’S
Loses in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington State, And The Virgin Islands, Fires Campaign Manager, Then Loses In Maine”
I won’t just cut and paste this guys comments but if you go to this site and look at the post that follows, the reason Obama lovers don’t like Billary are spelt out in graphic detail. It comes down to moral character and integrity vs political expediency and win-at-all-costs.
rafael | February 10, 2008 at 07:10 PM
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obama_wins_Maine.html#comments
Sorry state of the liberal party
Just take a look at the comments.
http://blogs.theage.com.au/yoursay/archives/2008/02/liberal_lashing.html
You have to admire Mal for trying but he hasn’t a hope in hell.
Dio @ 53,
Interesting link. So easy to forget all that Clinton stuff.
The Finnigans -
you don’t have to worship anyone to feel immense relief at the prospect of having a POTUS who can string a sentence together.
Jen – still a naughty boy.
Fins -
My favourite kind.
Jen – it should be Lady first. That is why he is a naughty boy.
In fact the Republicans pretty much got the response to the Florida/Michigan shenanigans right: halve the delegates.
About 80 minor functionaries miss out on their voting rights in August (should help deter the State parties from the same stunt next time).
The people still have their voice (avoids the sort of train crash you can see this becoming for the Dems).
The Democrat response, on the other hand, runs the risk of looking fantastically inept if the nomination is still in the balance at convention time. I’m not sure, by the way, that a re-vote is allowed – I think it may require State legislation or executive decree, which with a Republican governor in Florida is presumably not likely to happen. (Happy to be corrected on that requirement if I am wrong).
Ramos-Horta on Life Support
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23192543-601,00.html
He’s in the Royal Darwin Hospital ventilated with two gunshots, one to abdomen and other to arm. Could be quite a struggle but is in with a very good chance. Things must be quite tense in the RDH.
Dio @ 61,
Significant risk of loss of some brain function, isn’t there?
Brain function should be fine as he didn’t arrest. I just saw that he needed sixteen units of blood and that his chest injuries are the most serious. That’s a lot of blood and implies major vessel damage. RDH does not have a cardiac surgeon or a thoracic surgeon…
Kirrabilli @ 12:
Good find, thanx!
Diogenes @ 63 – for a VIP they would’ve flown in a full specialist FIFO team, wouldn’t they? What they usually do, I thought.
.
60
Dyno Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
In fact the Republicans pretty much got the response to the Florida/Michigan shenanigans right: halve the delegates.
think Hillary will concede in March anyway ,
but looking to actual Presential election Florida is winnable for the Dmocrats & represents a massive 10% of the college votes needed to win the Presidency, so
resolving Florida rather than leaving as a “problem” is to Democrats interests.
The problem is the current 2 Democrat candidates prioritys lie elsewhere
You all know by now the so called “Bradley effect” where the voters told pollsters that they preferred the black candidate and then voted the other way.
Let me now coin another one. I call it the “Obama effect” – this is where the delegates told the pollsters that they preferred the black candidate and then voted the other way. You heard it first here.
Is the Convention ballot secret?
KR @ 48
i’m surprised William Kristol makes it to work each day.
When he looks down at his feet i’m amazed that he makes the correct call which foot to put in front of the other.
Hey Jen
forget Hugh Grant; crawling out of a bunker near you anytime soon Zimmer McSame’s hero campaign switch; enjoy.
http://photos1.blogger.com/photoInclude/blogger/7338/1841/1600/ChristianCombat-e.jpg
Finnigan #67: The Bradley effect didn’t manifest itself in South Carolina or Louisiana. It hasn’t manifested itself in Washington or Kansas or Maine. If Clintonistas are relying on that then all I can think of is a certain bunker in Berlin and a desperate dream of a replay of the “miracle of the house of Brandenburg”.
Finnigans, let me coin the “Hillary effect”. This effect is where a party elects a candidate for the purposes of spiting their enemies rather than attracting voters and ends up losing an election. The democrats already gambled on their gal winning the nomination by Super Tuesday and they gambled wrong, now they have a mess on their hands which can only be solved by a gracious concession speech by Hillary Clinton which makes the convention a formality.
RB:
JFK had 14 years of federal experience (Congress and Senate) on which to run for President. Obama has had 3.
#71 and #72 – What about the “Nelson Effect”? Where the most important person to be consulted over the “Sorry” apology is him. He’s real Nowhere Man.
Hmmm Finnigans, good one @ 74.
There might be a Rudd effect, too, have a policy for ten years, but only work out the details the day before it all gets unveiled.
#73 JP – Obama doesn’t need any experience. He is the experience, a messiah, walks on water, turns bread into the Big Mac. Kumbaya my Lord, Kumbaya.
76 Finnigans – turning water into wine is more impressive…
65 Rain- It’s not quite as easy as that. He might need to be put on heart bypass if the vessel damage is very close to his heart and I’m pretty sure they don’t have that at RDH. As you might be aware, cardiothoracic surgery is not really FIFO stuff as he might need a few trips to theatre and ongoing care. The CT and angiogram will help them work out what they need to do. The decision whether to transfer him to a major trauma hospital (would be the RAH in this case) or to fly people in would be made at a VERY high level, presumably between DFAT and the Fed Health Dept.
I’ll be very interested to see what happens. I hope he gets the best care possible and survives.
Hillary Raises $7.4 Million Online Since Super Tuesday
By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Matt Stoller at Open Left writes about the phenomemal support,
“It’s remarkable, because it is converting voters and supporters into activists and donors, only it’s probably not all the creative professional class anymore. Clinton, like Dean, became an underdog, a real underdog after February 5, with more public support than Village support, and her public directly responded over the internet to close this gap.
In other words, the Obama campaign has had a strategy of cultivating online donors and activists, they know how to do it, and they are very good at it. The Clinton campaign has not done any of this particularly well, because it hasn’t been their strategy in the past. And somehow, they are at rough parity over the last 48 hours.
Curiously, Obama’s site is not broadcasting dollars raised, only the number of donations. Its goal is 500,000 donors by March 4.
Bottom line: There’s a lot of Democrats giving money this election cycle. They want their White House back and they’re willing to shell out to get it.
Finnigans, I think most of us will agree we hope the “Nelson effect” remains in place for many a year to come. Or at least until the election.
TW @72,
This doesn’t look to me like a race that’s over.
It will be over if Obama wins on March 4. But till then, I don’t think conceding will be anywhere near Hillary’s mind.
The parties have insane rules: too complex, inconsistent between States (though more so for the Republicans), and with arbitrary power allocated to the super-delegates. The Democrats are just the unlucky ones who’ve been caught out first with a really close race that exposes all these wrinkles to public scrutiny.
If Hillary does ok on March 4 this thing will keep running for quite a while yet.
Rain- I hope Hillary runs the country better than her campaign if she gets in. The word “inept” springs to mind.
#81 – Dyno – The Lady is not for turning!! – Oh, we miss you Maggie.
Glen ,Diogenes. Am i missing something?
Tim Pawlenty. The governor of Minnesota? I’ve seen some not so good polls of him. You guys have been listening to the republicans and fox news again havn’t you.
Don’t his state’s bridges fall down? Don’t get me wrong i think he would be a great running m8 for the GOP front runner (for the democrats). I can image McCain argues about tax and spending cuts. Obama talks about his running m8’s cost cutting on vital infrastructure like say i don’t know, bridges perhaps. As for the 1984 election as lovley their victory in Minnesota it is important to remember the Democrats candidate Walter Mondale was a senator from that state and hence a native son. Pawlty’s margins were never huge and ive seen bluer states with Gop Governors.
Rain- Re Ramos-Horta. There is a well-recognised syndrome called the VIP syndrome. Famous people have WORSE outcomes than average patients for several reasons. Could I tell some stories…
There’s an article on it at Wachter’s site here:
http://www.the-hospitalist.org/blogs/wachters_world/archive/2007/11/21/dennis-quaid-s-kids-are-vips-safer.aspx
Scotty, the Repugs are only making up the field
the flock have gathered for the revolution
Scotty, Obama will most likely lose the nomination, Clinton has leads in the States that matter the big states whereas Obama is picking up the crumbs and despite his ’surge’ he’s still behind in pledged delegates. Obama cannot be taken seriously unless he wins big State primaries and as he has failed to do so so far then its hard seeing him win. Experience counts and Obama just aint up for it just yet IMHO.
Scotty-I fully confess my information came from a number of Repug bloggers. Funnily enough, they didn’t mention the bridge falling down.
Me too Diogenes, and you seem to know more details, and well ahead of the MSM too, so keep us informed, huh?
.
Back to the Dem pre-selection race however, I’ve recently caught up with some of my e-mail newsgroups, threads of personal experiences of incidents at Dem caucuses (spinning off from a WISCON site, of all places?!) that are complaining about bullying (in the open caucuses, not the secret ballot ones).
.
Just one of dozens of examples, ” I was listening to an NPR report on the Washington Democratic caucus this morning. A reporter who was at a caucus site was reporting that a woman who was speaking for Hillary was heckled by Obama supporters and shouted down with gross sexist comments and locker-room jeers, until she was near tears. Several women left. Her son who was in the military finally spoke up and defended his mother and Hillary. It was only then that the heckling subsided. It’s behavior like this that is making me more and more uncomfortable with Obama supporters, and I can second it, I’ve had to leave the last three Democrat Party fund-raising meetings I went to because of my disgust at their locker-room mentality”.
.
On a more general note, many Dems seem to dislike the caucus process in general and have been lobbying to remove them from Dem Party process (again, just one example of many):
.
“That said, one of the serious problems with open caucuses in general is that it lends itself to bullying. I’ve been going to caucuses since I was 17, and I’ve never been particularly comfortable with the process; especially once you start moving up through senate district conventions and state conventions, it becomes very easy for people to start throwing sharp elbows and intimidating others. And they do. This isn’t unique to the Obama campaign, it’s part of the caucus process. And it’s another reason it’s a lousy process and I keep trying to lobby through Party channels to have them relegated to history.”
.
“Experience” tells us that:
John Howard is the best Prime Minister this country has ever seen, and Rudd is a no experience pretender with ‘me too’ policies.
Rudy Giuliani is the next Republican President of the United States because he’s got the best policies, and has leadership written all over him because of his ‘experience’.
Oh, give me a f&ckin’ break!!!!
Scotty
The governor of Minnesota as Repug mate for McCain
Don’t his state’s bridges fall down ?
that qualifys him for sure….what a great Repug double
Obama will be so worried
85 Diogenes, well I was always a little suspicious about Diana’s death in Paris
Less than 6 kms from a major hospital, the ambulance was 20 minutes late in getting there, and stopped twice on the way back? They sure took their time that night…
88
Diogenes Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:43 pm
Scotty-I fully confess my information came from a number of Repug bloggers
you are forgiven for believing truth from the ‘dark side’
Fair enough i just thought u may remember the bridge from the news in the back of your mind. Its a real laugh to read into some of this stuff. His Lieutenant Governor Carol Molnau is also the Transportation Commissioner. and this is such a great quote.
“Molnau is a controversial transportation commissioner; while she does not have a college degree and said she did not read bridge inspection reports.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carol_Molnau
He did not even do the politically wise thing and blame it all on her and sack her.
Well Glen. I think Obama will win. If he wins these three on Wednesday then Hawaii and Wisconsin as many polls suggest, then this should have a real effect on the Ohio primary. Though you could simply cut the word Obama out and paste the word Clinton in
87
Glen
Glen , presume news bulletins did not reach the Nelson bunker as you helped Horatio with the apology words but
Obama is to be the Democrat Nominee…your man Rudy he’s quit & u got McCain
Meanwhile, in the topsy-turvy world of George W Bush speak:
“the basic fundamentals of the economy are stable” as he signs a cheque for $168bn ( a tad over 1% of GDP, of ‘free’ spending money!),
but:
”the signs are troubling enough” that he felt the tax rebates he worked out with Congress were necessary.
…ah, go figure!
This clown cannot even begin to realise that not only will he go down for the biggest foreign policy disaster of a generation, but he’ll get to see the nation’s economy slide into recession as well.
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot does he do for an encore????????????
Glen: Obama is ahead in pledged delegates. In fact, Real Clear Politics has him ahead on pledged and super delegates.
This is not counting the 3 upcoming primaries, all of which Obama is favourite.
Does that change your analysis?
Glen @ 87
I also do not understand the inexperienced argument. Obama was a state senator for 8 years from 1996 to 2004. Then he of course was the state senator we know today. That is 12 years (over a decade). People make him sound like a 1 term congressman sometimes. His experience from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is also very impressive. as well as having being on other committees. Not that it is a good example but Bush was only governor for 8 years correct?
I’m sorry guys, but catching up with all my Dem Party insider e-mails has been an amazing education for me tonight, here’s one with another common theme:
.
“As an Edwards supporter, I am down to my second choice, HRC, and I am happy to support her. And if Obama gets the nomination I will vote for him without hesitation, but then again, I often joke I would rather slit my wrists than vote Republican, but this has been the closest I have come to it in 15 years.
.
After this campaign, whomever is the Democratic nominee, I might have to take my 15 years away and write a “Delete My F**g Account” type of letter to the Party.”
.
Scotty , no Bush is never a good example to quote when advancing a rationale argument !
This time next week , Obama will be leading the State count 26 to 10
Yes the delegate count will be only slightly Obama’s way ,
but politically I think the political advisers will say to Hillary the imbalance in the State count is fatal for her credibility
KR , Rudy was just not your man ?
A lack of experience KR shows Rudd has given in to left wing academics to apologise to a few thousand children removed from their communities for their safety and well being? Rudd can apologise for those taken for no reason from parents who looked after their children well and were safe within their community. But more aboriginals were saved than harmed by what happened. And there are so few people who can actually prove they were ’stolen’ and many who lied like Lowitja O’Donoghue who was actually abandoned by her father and placed in the care of a missionary-run home for abandoned and sick Aboriginal children.
The only person who owes Lowtija O’Donoghue an apology is her father not the Parliament.
And many other children whose lives were saved owe a debt of thanks to the people who rescued them from mistreatment by aboriginal communities for being half caste. Clearly some small number of cases of forced removal were not necessary and the State Governments have rightly apologised but their was no ’stolen generation’ it is a myth created by Professor Peter Read at most a few thousand children were affected not 100,000 as put forward by Read thus it could hardly be described a generation.
John Herron, in 2000 tabled a report in the Australian Parliament that questioned whether or not there ever actually had been a “Stolen Generation”, on the semantic distinction that as “only 10% of Aboriginal children” has been removed, they did not constitute an entire “generation”. Yet despite this only 1 person out of 100,000 could prove to a court they were ’stolen’ and not for the betterment of the child. Thus it is highly unlikely that 100,000 was the total of removed childen but a far smaller number.
What experience KR that is to cave in and say sorry and declare that they’ll never remove aboriginal children from abusive communities or from parents who dont look after their children which happens to whites atm. Thanks to Rudd more aboriginal children will suffer from his apology than would have otherwise been the case had it not want to reignite the history wars KR.
Also Rudd’s lack of experience has been illustrated where he has invited two separate aboriginal elders to make two separate welcoming ceremonies in Parliament tomorrow and Wednesday because they cant come up with just one tribe. The US tried to exterminate the American Indians and they apologised rightly for their crimes but they never had American Indians welcoming white people to ‘their’ land during a session of Congress.
The trouble with this sorry business is that no body is allowing dissent and anybody who agrees with practical reconciliation not symbolic reconciliation is then called racist or a redneck. The aboriginals dont need an apology to cement in their already sad and depressing existence a permanent history of victimhood that will not serve them any benefit in the future.
Finally all that needs happen is one Liberal MP to vote against the motion and it will not be on behalf of the Parliament and only of the Labor Government. Lota right wing MPs from WA and QLD who dont want a bar of this symbolic reconciliation.
Glen: I’m sure the aborigines are glad to have yourself speak on their behalf. You must be grinding your teeth at the Liberal party including both your leader and next most likely leader wholeheartedly supporting the apology.
Rudd has already done more things to heal this nation in 2 months then Howard did in 10 years.
100
Ron
My post was really in answer to Glen’s wonderful analysis based on the word ‘experience’!
I think you’ll find it was deeply ironic if you go back and read both.
Lol ron i was thinking that as i wrote it. Sad thing is George Bush, Bill Clinton and George Bush are the only presidetns ive seen in my life.
I am starting to see Obama as a reverse Reagan. RR’s basic political strength was his ability to make Americans feel good at about themselves and their country at the same time. He was a great crooner. So great that he honeyed up to post-Vietnam/ post-Nixon/ post-Iran/ post-Oilshock Americans and revoked the New Deal democratic majority.
Obama’s “Yes. We can.” is as evocative and irresistable as Reagan’s “It’s morning in America.” The message is an elixir to all those who feel used, tricked, abused or otherwise dudded, upbraided, reproved, excluded or denied by the nasty, moralising, hypocritical neocon hacks that have come to dominate the theatre that passes for politics in America.
Americans have many susceptibilities. They are not shy about them, and why should they be. They want to trust their governments, identify with their politicians, pursue their material dreams, be openly inspired, celebrate their manifest nobility, pay less tax and talk, talk, talk all about it.
As well, Americans like to invest their Presidents with almost mystical powers, and, some might say, with good reason: there have been some gems among the grit. While there is no need to name these Presidents, Americans – taught to believe that anyone can become POTUS – know that a really great President can transcend the petty, the personal and the cycnical. They have reason to trust in hope, democracy and the possibilties of change.
I think Obama will win everything and could change America. (Or have I been watching too much West Wing?)
I’m actually quite happy at the way Rudd is systemically dismantling Howard’s flawed policies one by one. Unfortunately there are a stack of flawed policies.
Maybe if the current Libs don’t do anything too stupid like maintain their right wing conservative dogma from the Howard days, they may become electable again in a decade or so.
u must be tired…..only said in fun re Rudy
you are too rationale to think highly of Rudy
Asanque we didnt need healing during the 80s and early 90s with Keating and Hawke who never said Sorry so why do we need it now?? Just for Rudd to say he’s done something other than whinge about having a multi billion dollar surplus and having to control inflation at 3% boohoo! All Rudd is going to heal is the back pockets of aboriginals some of whom may see this apology as a chance for a quick buck. This apology is just for aboriginals not for the rest of the country IMHO and fine we lost the election and we tories have to sit here and take it like Marcellus Wallace in Pulp Fiction.
The aboriginals have been apologised by all the States who were responsible for the removals so really since that has occurred i dont see the need for a national apology. My only hope is Rudd doesnt get duped by the left wing academics who have called for a National Sorry Day holiday that would just be a joke.
Rudd can say Sorry, but half of the country doesnt feel sorry for what happened when many more children were saved than stolen. Many aboriginal children should be removed from abusive communities but we’re too gutless to save these kids from such a rotten existence because we’re worried that left wing academics will say we’re ’stealing them’ when if they were white we’d have childrens services over to take them away in a flash what hypocrisy.
My only joy this week on QT will be watching Swan flounder from double broadsides as Nelson and Turnbull sink him for good i almost pity him….nah i dont LOL!
106
asanque , well said
Glen , I hope in time you reflect differently on your #101 blog against an apology
Ron its already been done its just drum beating from Rudd and the left, if all the States have said Sorry and they were responsible why do we need a Federal Sorry?
Lets make a quick list:
1. Ratify Kyoto – tick
2. National apology – tick
3. Haneef case – dismissed – tick
4. Withdrawal from Iraq – Work in progress
5. Dismantle workchoices – Work in progress
6. Review and dismantle citizenship test – Work in progress
Has Australia changed for the worse through this variety of symbolic and worthwhile policies?
Of course not, that was merely the fearmongering of the Howard days.
Was a national apology high on my list of Rudd’s apology. No.
However, it does not harm, no compensation is linked to it, and puts an end to a sorry saga.
Do these items in the above list make Australia a better place?
I argue yes.
and work in progress re laps & high speed internet in the class rooms Asanque
Glen because in Aboriginal culture an ‘elder’ is a revered ‘leader’ and they regard the PM as the number one ‘elder’ of all white Australians
and further , Aboriginal Affairs became seriously a National responsibility at least since the 1967 Referendum
Ron why should two aboriginals be asked to Welcome the Members of Parliament to Canberra once is bad enough, twice just looks pathetic really i mean get with the program he’s been made to look foolish for inviting two people to do it because some aboriginals didnt like who was to do it on Wednesday they complained and now the other tribe gets to do Tuesday what a joke!
Yes but Ron that was after the removals not during and not before thus the apology from Rudd is purely symbolic it means nothing because the States who removed the children have already said Sorry, i guess some Aboriginals like hearing the word a bit too much.
Can the Aboriginals who run the Tent Embassy be given to the count of 10 after 9am Wednesday to leave the lawns of the Old Parliament House now that Rudd’s said Sorry please let it be so!
Clearly – you have not lived in Paris.
I could tell you a lovely little story about a young lady crossing the road just down from my place and across from the local cafe, the unexpected impact of a speeding ambulance sending a woman into a full spin and landing on the road in front of siad ambulance. I could mention that the driver and the assistant did the right thing and delivered effective emergency care, took her over to the cafe and paid for the a short black. I could note that the driver was apologetic, the assistant was all smiles and helping out with total professionalism, the attentiveness and charm of the waiters, and the cheers from the customers as the ambulance departs. But I won’t go into all of that – because you have to live in Paris before you understand Paris.
To sum it up, the right wing conservatives of Howard and Bush had their time in the sun after 2001. 2001 was their time, because right wing conservatives peddle fear, perfect in the post 2001 climate, whereas left wing liberals peddle hope.
The right wing conservatives proceeded to do incalculable damage to the world diplomatically and economically and their greatest flawed legacy is the disastrous illegal foray into Iraq. Countless billions have been wasted in this pointless war, which has increased terrorism worldwide and this money could have been spent on far more worthwhile ventures. This has been compounded with a complete failure to recognise the dangers of climate change.
Only now is the world realising the immense harm that was done due to fear, shortsighted and selfish neoconservative policies.
Its not surprising that the people turned to Rudd and Obama, who have shown an inclination to lead to make this world a better place, not just for this generation but for future generations. Do all actions require a tangible benefit? Let us not be remembered by future generations as the selfish generation.
The right wing conservatives had their chance, and we are reaping the bitter harvest. Unfortunately, both Rudd and likely Obama will be left trying to fix the many mistakes of their predecessors.
Is hope better then fear?
I leave that to you.
Glen , there is not just one aboriginal tribe hence the two representatives
The fundamental flaw in ‘howardism’ was a ‘winner take all’ policy approach linked to the political wedge
so in aboriginal affairs the wedge was ‘no sorry’ it was not our generation and the implication all were taken for their own good and few maybe nil others,
rather than say huge numbers were ALSO forcibly taken for ‘race’ reasons
and to apologise
aborigines were left with no choice but to use a reverse wedge & ignore those taken for their own health care….
all ‘howardism’ supporters have been caught in a wedge of their OWN making
(Hence Nelson’s current problem)
it is semantics to argue over the word ‘ generation’ when clearly an apology is warranted by our National leader for massive numbers of aborigines forcibly taken
Ron there is no evidence of children been taking for being ‘black’ but because half caste children could have been harmed by aboriginal communities and so were removed for their own safety.
There never was a ‘Stolen Generation’, Rudd should simply apologise to those kids removed not for their own safety but removed from loving caring homes these aren’t a whole Generation though. Rudd is caught up in the Left’s aboriginal agenda oh well…
Ron there is no evidence of anything like 100,000 maybe 10,000 but probably 5-10,000 at the most, hardly a Generation! And of that alot were saved than ’stolen’!
115
asanque
Is hope better then fear?
absolutely , which is why voters are flocking to an Obama win:
internationally the ‘right’ have us in
fear of terrorism they have worsened
in fear of nuke Iran an unpredictable enemy
in fear of where the disintergration of Iraq will lead
in fear of making Hamas non entity
in fear that oil is in the hands of US supported Despots
in fear that climate change is before our eyes whilst US Oil Companies support Bush in denial of CC
and domestically
in fear that the wage conditions must be in dividually negotiated with a boss who holds all the cards without any saferty net
in fear that social justice & equity should we individually fall on hard times are
dispensible against the theory of survival of the wealthiest
Glen, two reps is fine for ACT ‘country’ – listen to the ‘Welcome to Country’ openings that are held there, its briefly alluded to in the film ‘Jindabyne’.
.
As asanque @ 111 says, it “does no harm” and may well do a lot of good, giving a symbolic starting point as kind of “closure”, from which we can move forward, like the rituals associated with funerals and memorial services, there is no harm in symbolic gestures and can be powerful for healing.
.
Raising of the flag on ANZAC Day is a symbolic gesture, the minute’s silence, and all of that pomp & pageantry, is just symbolic meaningless ritual. I was one of the anti-Vietnam war protest generation, and still think that “One Day of the Year” is just silly patriotic jingoism — but for many Aussies, its very important symbolically and metaphorically. I RESPECT that, even if I don’t agree with it. For Vietnam vets to be recognised was a symbolic ritual act, and *important* for those personally affected by it. Whether I supported the govt of the day doing it or not is beside the point, if I thought it meant anything practical or not, is beside the point – I can still give RESPECT in that it was an *important* symbolic act for *them*, after all – it “does no harm”, certainly not to me personally, and I can opt out of participating if I didn’t agree with it.
.
To me Glen, I figure you must have little or no RESPECT for others. If many Indigenous (and non-Indigenous) Australians feel they need a national gesture in order to find some measure of closure, and welcome it, and are looking forward to participating in it, even as an observer in Melbourne’s Federation Square, along with Perthites even getting up early to watch it live from their city centre, and so on – *sigh* – I give up, I suggest you try to get over it Glen, find a good book to read, or take the dog for a walk.
.
On the superdelegates question – there is an interesting piece by Ted Devine in the new York Times speaking from the 1984 experience on how superdelegates play out. The scenario he paints is something close to what most of us would consider to be the right thing to do – that is that superdelegates move the the nominee with the broadest support for the voting community. Unlike ‘84, superdelegates have been coming out in greater numbers supporting this or that candidate – and for the most part this is what Ted is arguing against in his piece. I guess the bottom line is that these superdelegates for the most part will face the electorate sometime soon and that will be on the top of the list of three things they think about (i.e. facing the public). The other two will be risk analysis on the potential damage from the Clinton machine (what if Clinton wins), and secondly polls on best candidate for a Democrat victory (my role in the party).
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/10/opinion/10devine.html?scp=2&sq=superdelegates+1984&st=nyt
Aparently Bush is not supporting Obama.
Aparently Bush is not supporting Obama.
Am I correct in assuming that we can call this a double-negative-endorsement?
Clinton v. Obama: The Lawsuit
It’s a good read – short and punchy.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120269002843257513.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
davidoff @ 120, thnx for that, its a more potted version of some of the cross-fire gossiping I’ve been trawling through from internal Dem Party conversations tonight.
.
I’ve learned a lot of stuff I never knew from all this gossip. Signs of widespread grief amongst the ground-troops over so many super-delegates declaring so early, as mentioned in davidoff’s link. The “deep division” of the Dems in the 1980 election between Carter and Kennedy, (which caused them to lose that election), there are some fears its happening again.
.
Some conflict across grass-roots Party activists about the open versus closed status as well, some don’t like the idea that Independents can potentially have such a big say in it. One state used to have closed secret-ballot primaries, but the Republican state legislature pushed it to become an open caucus and have then stacked them with Independents as Republican “plants”.
.
Is that sort of thing vaguely akin to what we call “branch-stacking”?
.
Bush not supporting Obama? sounds to me like the Repubs desperately want Obama, like the brer rabbit syndrome, oh no, not the briar patch!
asanque 115.
I go for hope, any day. It is my refrain.
Others on this site express the same. We know, as we do, that hope, for all we want, is eventually not as full as we would wish, as changing circumstances make it so.
The now Opposition (Australia, I intend) is continuing its business of dashing hope, ideals, ideas. I suppose they would. After all, they offered nothing resembling hope. Then and now.
Maybe they don’t understand. Not that I care what they do or do not.
I was particularly appalled by Tony Abbott regarding the apology, ‘the more perceptive indigenous’ I cannot quote in full or even if that is exact, but you will get my drift.
Yet, hope exists, it seems to have a short flair, but it is at least to me, wow and ever welcome!
DC, Maryland, and Virginia: 9.2% of the game
While nobody seems interested in polling the District of Colombia (15 bound delegates), we have have the mainstream pool residing in Maryland (70) and Virginia (83). The Obama projections suggest DC will fall his way 58/42 and Maryland polls put Obama ahead of Clinton by 53/35. In the meantime Clinton camp have have been focusing attention on Virginia (last projections at 53/37 for Obama) . All up we have three states on the East Coast and you have to throw into this the fact that Virginia is like real close to Maryland and Maryland is like real close to the District of Columbia and DC is bumping up hard against New Jersey, and that’s just a train ride to downtown New York. Thing is – if Obama sweeps these three states (and on my numbers this is a probably) – we have a scenario where new boundaries are being drawn on the Clinton brand.
Out of the three – Virginia is the one to watch. The Clinton team are putting a lot of effort into this state as a part of a turning-the-tide initiative – but at the same time the Clinton team is in a state of disorganization and blog activity is reflecting clinical depression. But that’s not all – Hawaii and Wisconsin are coming up (19 Feb) and on my calculations suggest both will fall to Obama – leading to a winning streak covering Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Virgin Islands, Maine, DC, Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii and Wisconsin. This is the stuff that creates the ‘Big Mo’ and this has context when we cast a forward eye on Ohio (141 delegates) and Texas (193 delegates and a state where carbon dating is something that mothers explain to teenage daughters), not to mention Pennsylvania with 151 delegates – and keeping in mind that as we speak the immediate delegate count is for all practical purposes neck and neck (i.e. given swings and roundabouts its a free for all).
But what if there is a thumping in the coming couple of days. What if the Obama message has gone beyond the outside chance and what if there is a majority that are thinking ‘yes we can’. What if this election is based on the recognition of the reality of past betrayals by the elected representative, what if its about measure of trust in a transformative figure, about hope, about the question of when the USoA can be better that what it has been? What if a big majority stand up on 12th of February and say they want to be proud to call themselves Americans? Do we dare to hope?
Yes we can.
Yes, we can.
And have.
Glen’s hero, Me-Me Nelson, acts decisively.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/cartoons/
Ron at 100, 4U.
“Scotty , no Bush is never a good example to quote when advancing a rational argument !”
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AsjqqpuqmGmVStYtJJE5I2tX_b4F
New Kid On The Block:
Since he burst out the woodpile, he won’t sit up-back of the bus, he’s cashed-up, he’s uppity, High Darktown’s not good enough for him anymore, he wants to live in a White House, his live schtick is dynamite and he’s wearin’ some kind of perfume that drives all the women crazy!
Beltway……we have a problem.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/uclickcomics/20080207/cx
Trying that last link again.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=A0WTUZbgerBHwa8AiRgHcggF
Damn it! Wrong one. Last try.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/uclickcomics/20080207/cx_bs_uc/bs20080207
Obama’s state experience doesn’t matter when it comes to being thought of as Presidential material – only his federal experience does – and that experience is pretty brief.
#132
Based on a little digging into the records at the Library of Congress (and some digging by someone called rafael)…
During Obama’s first eight months he sponsored over 820 bills. He introduced 233 regarding healthcare reform, 125 on poverty and public assistance, 112 crime fighting bills, 97 economic bills, 60 human rights and anti-discrimination bills, 21 ethics reform bills, 15 gun control, 6 veterans affairs. In his first year in the U.S. Senate, he authored 152 bills and co-sponsored another 427. These included the Coburn-Obama Government Transparency Act of 2006, the Lugar-Obama Nuclear Non-proliferation and Conventional Weapons Threat Reduction Act, the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act, the 2007 Government Ethics Bill, and the Protection Against Excessive Executive Compensation Bill. All up … Obama has written 890 bills and co-sponsored another 1096 since entering the senate.
133
davidoff
All this ‘experience’ stuff is twaddle. The POTUS is selected for character, this is a kind of beauty contest, not a job application, in the usual sense. And from where I sit, there’s a marked edge to Obama on this vital question.
In this, of all years, the yearning for someone who transcends the grime, shows moral courage, and has impeccable credentials to uphold the true liberal values without selling out to vested interests is where the bar is set.
Clinton, for all her fine qualities and experience, just does not inspire in this way, has a lot of baggage and is unpopular with many in way Obama is not. Read the polls, a lot of people of both parties do not like her. On the other hand, Obama’s negatives are considerably lower in those same polls.
And despite what Clinton’s campaign manager says, Obama is still ahead on beating McCain.
Neat little video on http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/#sledgePromo
The Art of Speech with Senators Obama and McCain
“Watch this instructional film on the function of gestures and you too can be a good public speaker. By Hugh Atkin.”
Click the image to play now!
Ramos Horta expected to ‘make a full recovery’
http://news.theage.com.au/ramoshorta-expected-to-fully-recover/20080212-1rn8.html
Oh jeez, Shanahan reports today that Nelson’s grip on leadership is shaky, what a circus, I’ve got money on him being gone by June. It’s almost enough to make you feel SORRY for the Libs (not bloody likely).
KR @ 135, I’m with you, and with blindoptimist @ 105 on this one. Nobody cares about experience or other similar twaddle for POTUS.
.
Blindoptimist, I have seen others comment about the strong resemblance of Reagan by Obama, but I think you said it best about Reagan/Obama ” …his ability to make Americans feel good about themselves and their country at the same time. He was a great crooner….. Obama’s “Yes. We can.” is as evocative and irresistable as Reagan’s “It’s morning in America.”
.
Maybe thats part of the explanation for the baby-boomer demographic preference for Clinton? An attitude of having been there, done that, bought that T-shirt?
Wanna good send up of Obama’s ‘yes we can’ video, but with mcCain’s endless war mantra?
Classic:
http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/02/11/mccain_video/index.html
138
Rain
It’s a hard call for all the Clinton fans, but I think they’d vote Obama over McCain anytime. Besides, in policy Obama and Clinton aren’t that far apart, but in style and character, well…I think they have clear differences.
139 KR, watched it, now severely depressed, reaching for razor!
More dismantling of the Howard legacy of racism and breach of international human rights.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/pressure-to-overhaul-intervention/2008/02/11/1202578694335.html
However, thinking about how destroyed the Libs are has cheered me up again
121- Davidoff – Great response by Obama
“we tories have to sit here and take it like Marcellus Wallace in Pulp Fiction.”
No you don’t Glen, we have a new government now with a different set of values, no-one has to “take it” anymore, but of course if that is what rings your bell go ahead.
My only hope is ………………. for a National Sorry Day holiday.
I agree, perhaps it could replace the Queens birthday holiday, we won’t need this when we become a republic.
I think the “Ramos-Horta expected to make a full recovery story” is a bit premature. I’m concerned that Royal Darwin Hospital doesn’t have a specialist cardiothoracic surgeon, given that an injury to his right lung is the main problem. Don’t know if they’re up to doing a lobectomy (removal of part of lung) if necessary. There are also many late complications from this kind of injury with infection around the lung which can be difficult to treat. He’s not out of the woods yet.
“Ron there is no evidence of children been taking for being ‘black’ but because half caste children could have been harmed by aboriginal communities and so were removed for their own safety.”
Glen, your ignorance is astounding. Yes, the policy (particularly as practices in WA under RA Neville) was directed at “half-caste” children. But the motive was racist eugenics not humanitarianism. They wanted to “breed the blackness out”. No doubt they also thought they were doing these kids a favour by doing so – by bringing them into “civilisation”, albeit as domestic servants.
KR @ 140, of course the Clinton supporters would, they might whinge and carry on like pork chops about it, but they would do their duty like good Democrats. A few might opt out, but not enough to make a difference.
.
Can’t say the same for Obama supporters if the sitrep is reversed though, they are far more likely to defect or opt out in large numbers.
.
146 Robert Bollard says:
“Glen, your ignorance is astounding.”
No Robert, don’t forget he is a tory, ignorance is par for the course!
why do people get so bothered about Glen?? when he was the mouthpiece for the government he was semi-relevant, now he is totally irrelevant. Hell hath no fury like a Tory scorned…
“The POTUS is selected for character, this is a kind of beauty contest, not a job application, in the usual sense. ”
on Bush snr , Clinton , Bush jnr ???
is the choice this time a candidate who displays judement (Iraq , Israel & Iran)
and who displays a balanced new change direction of fairness & inclusiveness
Blindoptimist @ 105
Good call—you have indeed been watching too much “West Wing”.
Having lived in the USA for 25 years and still visiting nearly every year, I find it to hard to believe that Obama could overcome the might of its military-industrial complex, the oligarchy of its major corporations and the entrenched hatreds among its ethnic and religious groups.
For the past 45 years, America has got the duplicitous, warmongering Presidents that it deserves, with the possible exception of the genuine, but seriously unprepared and undermined, Jimmy Carter who was turfed out for the perfect American phony, Ronald Reagan.
It’s quite likely that Obama is sincere in his desire to improve opportunities for poor and middle class Americans, so why then are poor whites and Latino Democrats sticking with the Clintons, even though they know full well the Clintons are proven liars? Because they would rather be poor and exploited than vote for a biracial leader who makes speeches in cadences sounding like Martin Luther King, which is NOT how their kindly grandfather figure, Ronald Reagan, sounded.
Americans simply do not deserve to get as intelligent, caring and inspirational a President as Obama might have been. All the same, for their sake and the rest of the world’s sake, let’s hope my perceptions of that sad country are way off the mark.
KR- I’ve come across the origin of a phrase you have quoted before in Colossus-The Rise and Fall of the American Empire. It was FDR’s Secretary of State Cordell Hull who referred to Somoza, dictator of Nicaragua saying “He might be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.” There’s a bit of controversy whether he really said it or whether it actually referred to Trujillo, the Dominican dictator.
On the topic of the apology, did anyone hear Warren Truss huffing and puffing about being insulted at not being allowed to formally address the parliament? Amongst the wheezing and the whining, if you listened closely, you could hear the faint tinkle of the penny dropping as he realised the irrelevance he and his Tory cohorts have been consigned to in opposition.
Apology by as many MPs as possible is required. Provided a majority agree that speaks for the Parliament and the people. Coalition realise they are on a hiding to nothing if they oppose. Arguing that administrators had good intentions is of little help. Of course there were people believing they were doing the right thing. But in a society that had by both government and individual actions reduced Aboriginal people to dispossessed and dislocated paupers in their own country it is easy to say “these people need helping and are worse off living in shanty camps in poverty than being wards of the State, adopted out etc”. The Stolen Generations were a stage several stages in Aboriginal dispossession. Ask ourselves why focus on mixed race kids which is predominately what happened (but not only). Guilt about black/white sexual relation? Eugenics? Lots of other reasons.
From day one of colonisation Aboriginal and European people have explained and protested the impacts on indigenous peoples. Minority voices in the European population but always there. And until recent years always a big majority of European Australians looking the other way, confused about solutions, not prepared to see that Aboriginal people need serious resources to have a viable community and retain cultures – not just welfare and assistance of a different and usually alien culture.
Let Truth and Reconciliation be our motto. Some otherwise important people need to take a seat near the rear of the bus and listen carefully.
Stop Thief!-Billary wants Florida and Michigan delegates in.
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=65ed7d1f-b586-40d0-bc4c-48292494d4ef
If Obama had won and needed them many here would back him to complain too!
I’m going to quote this from that article. It sums up what I hate about Billary. Bring on McCain who at least has some common decency and integrity if Billary gets up.
“Democrats need to recognize this potential gambit for what it is: a cynical, selfish hijacking of the democratic process. Clinton would not be laying the groundwork for this ploy unless it was potentially decisive. And the damage to Democrats (and democrats) would be profound. If Clinton is truly willing to trample so many institutions she professes to care about in pursuit of victory, she will have proven her enemies correct.”
Diogenes at 156
This is precisely why I prefer Obama to Clinton.
Its also why many will vote Obama but not vote for Clinton.
The stealing of Michigan delegates is absolute nonsense and morally indefensible.
Notwithstanding Hillary breaking her own pledge as well.
Any candidate who is deceptive with the truth, be it a Democrat like Bill Clinton or a Republican like Karl Rove should be turfed by the electorate (just like Howard).
This paragraph sums it up best.
Glen at 157 – Obama is not Hillary. He would have honoured his pledge.
If not, then he would deserve to be castigated just as much as Hillary.
Those who break pledges and are deceptive with the truth, deserve what they get.
See JWH.
The article also suggests this:
“The way to address this complaint is to schedule new elections so that candidates can advertise, make speeches, organize voters, distribute yard signs–you know, do “democracy,” a concept Clinton seems not to understand. The DNC, if it does decide to redress Clinton’s complaint, needs to do so immediately.”
This indicates that it is possible to schedule new elections, which IMHO would be the best scenario.
161 – It is clearly obvious to all neutral observers that the only fair option at this stage would be relections.
For Clinton to continue to push to simply receive these delegates (especially Michigan where she was the only candidate named) is simply a corruption of democracy.
Glen @ 101-
Thank you for reminding me why it is an absolute joy to see the back of the small-minded, ignorant, fear-peddling war mongerers that ruled this land to such detriment for the past 11 years. You simply have NFI.
I am keeping my children at home tomorrow morning to witness what may well be one of the most significant moments in the social and political modern history of this country.
sorry to get off thread PB’s , but – Honestly!
RE : Clinton’s dirty tricks. Surley this will only create further support for Obama amongst those who are still backing Hillary as a better bet against the Repugs rather than as their preferred personal choice. She is just reinforcing all the arguments against her over Barack.
The ‘New Republic’ article is pro Obama but is it “balanced” ????
Isn’t disenfranchisement of voters for any reason unacceptable ?
2.274 million Democrats DID vote in Michigan & Florida
At THAT time according to both the Polls & political pundits Clinton was going to win both Primarys heavily. I may not like this reality but it is true.
(so its a red herring to mention Obama was not on one ticket & didn’t campaign in the other Primary…he was gonna be a big loser in both anyway)
The Political dynamics have SINCE changed & by March the dynamics would have dratically changed & rescheduled Primarys then are likely to result in a close vote if not an Obama win.
To be frank , Clinton & Obama both agreed to a poor DNC decision
Clinton cause she thought she’d win the Nomination without the 2 States and
Obama cause it was to his advantage to exclude 2 Clinton voting States
Clinton’s argument now that disenfranchisement is unfair is valid
Obama’s argument that the DNC decision was independent is also valid
The problem is the DNC decision may have decided who is the Nominee
So will any solution now be fair to BOTH Candidates ?
No need to apologise, Jen, many of the ‘ignorant’ (myself included) might as well read your perspectives, particularly as to the merits of supporting the Senator from Illinois.
Ron-They both signed pledges to respect the decision. Billary is the one trying to undo yet another bad decision she made. If she wanted them in, she shouldn’t have signed up. I really don’t care what her arguments are now, they are purely self-serving and cynical. She should show some leadership and stick by her own decision, instead of bitching and moaning now that she’s not winning. As has been pointed out, she has just proven that all the reasons people give for hating her are valid.
153
Diogenes
It’s probably one of the most used phrases by Washington to describe it’s various nefarious ‘friends’! No doubt it’s been used more than once!
On a slightyl different tack, but similar theme, I heard a converstion about Charlie Wilson’s War (I think that’s the title), a film about the CIA and Afghanistan, but what struck me was how ‘fundamentalist’ their dread of ‘communists’ was, and how they ended up spending billions supporting bin Laden just because it was a poke in the eye for those ‘commie bastards’.
The biggest irony was that the Russians were trying to overturn the fundamentalist’s taking over the government.
If only they’d just left them alone, how different would the world be now? Think about the sequence of events leading to the Taliban, bin Laden and ultimately 911 and all that has occured as a result of this foolish meddling.
Talk about ‘blowback’! They’re like children making nitroglycerine!
Yes Ron, but who would have won if the primaries where held when the STATES THEMSELVES originally agreed to hold them? That should, surely, be the fair comparison?
I don’t actually know the date they were supposed to be held, but since both states moved the date forward one would have to assume that the original later dates would have been (with the benefit of hindsight) more beneficial for Obama.
I would have to say that if Clinton cannot win a new election her support was pretty transitory and so she has no real claim on the victory.
David ,
I fully acknowledge that there are many on the conservative side of politics who have wanted to see real reconciliation with Indigeneous Australians : most notably Malcolm Fraser. I am not including these people in my derisive comments. But Glen fits the picture.
160
asanque
Exactly, and note that Edwards and Obama both took their names off the ballot in Michigan where they legally could do so.
Clinton did not.
Speaks volumes, very,very loud volumes! LOL
Diogenes , I agree with everything you said
However her bad decision and her attempt now to recant it does not appease my sense the original DNC decision was intended to be a rap over the knuckles to 2 State managements rather than as is now the case a decisive Nominee breaking decision.
I wish to separate Hillary from what is now a perceived unfair situation for both Candidates
Who is advising Hillary???
Surely she has just upped the ante, and increased Obama’s momentum even further with these antics. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot: Game over .
Jen,
No Jen, it is much more childish than mere opposition to reconciliation. Basically, my reading of Glen’s 101 is he opposes to the Apology because “The Left” wan’t it.
Thank goodness many on the Conservative side are agreeing with the apology because they see it as a new beginning and a vehicle to deal with indigenous problems as a united people. Maybe we can get it right this time.
KR-Here’s a nice article from Snopes about the origins of the phrase “He may be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.”
http://message.snopes.com/showthread.php?t=8204
173
Jen
Clinton’s crew are firewalling now, saying that Ohio and Texas must go her way and they’re trying to shore up some backstop postiions if they don’t.
It smells a bit desperate, but that’s exactly what I’ve been predicting, so no suprises from Camp Clinton.
If Obama can ultimately succeed against Clinton and her machine, then the puerile argument that he has not been tested against the Republicans is then quite silly! If he can beat her, he can beat ANY Republican! LOL
On the apology, yes, it’s a huge symbolic break with all the small, miserable, suburban solicitor view of the world that Howard foistered on us.
Good riddance to the mealy mouthed little rodent, and how much fun to see his spawn in opposition, desperately trying to justify their miserable existance.
163
Jen – I wouldn’t bother with that, Rudd has crafted his apology so that every school child will be forced to watch a victory for the Left in the Culture Wars being that it will be shown at 9am tomorrow.
While you are entitled to support an apology others like myself should be just as entitled to not support an apology for every State involved in the forced removals has apologised but more importantly for fear that it will embed victimhood in the psyche of all aboriginals instead of one of defiance, struggle and agency.
It will also further weaken attempts at trying to solve the problems faced by child abuse in Aboriginal Communities as Rudd will pledge never to remove children from Aboriginals thus only the children will suffer from his remarks.
Tomorrow aboriginals get the words and we get to keep the money. We’ve just got to get over this ‘Sorry’ business and get on with practical reconciliation for the good of all aboriginals.
GG,
I’m still trying to count to 10.
I can’t believe the lack of understanding and empathy that some of my fellow countrymen display when they see images and hear stories of what we have done to an entire nation of people since white settlement.
It brings back all those feelings of outrage and shame at the meanspirited approach we have lived with for over a decade.
I cannot begin to understandfhow an aboriginal person must feel when they hear comments such as Glen’s coming from the former leaders of the nation.
I truly hope Rudd’s actions can start to heal some of the insult that has been heaped upon on the injury we have caused.
178
Jen – If the last 11 years were so mean spirited what about the 13 years of Labor before then where there was not a sniff of a Sorry from Hawke or Keating…was that a meanspirited approach???
I’m sorry Jen & Co, I can’t support this view that Clinton is doing anything seriously wrong, Obama’s dirty tricks have been appalling, but he’s getting away with it.
.
165 Ron ” The ‘New Republic’ article is pro Obama but is it “balanced” ????
Isn’t disenfranchisement of voters for any reason unacceptable ?”
.
It was Obama’s faction that worked it in the first place. And show me a MSM site that isn’t pro-Obama? (including both Democrat and Republican leaning) I’ve really had to dig deep to find alternate or independent reporting. During our own election campaign we talked a lot on this site about the MSM and analysing its biases etc – but giving credit where credit is due, the Americans have it all over us in their ability to manipulate MSM and totally squashing independent media. They are the Masters of the Art.
.
Interesting how thoughtful our comments and questioning, we were with our own media reports, but we swallow whatever comes out of the USA as verbatim “truth”?
.
To me, its evidence of a classic textbook Party faction-fight, the more I read about Obama’s dirty tactics since Feb 5, the more I dislike the guy.
.
As one Democrat said “I thought this campaign is supposed to be about *hope* and *change* and transcending the old status quo and not playing politics as usual—but Obama relying on unethical tactics, lies, cheap cracks and snide comments is not hopeful, nor original, nor ethical, nor in any way new or transcendent. It sucks. Same old. Same old.”
.
175
Diogenes
In a shouting match with Bill O’ Reilly, Phil Donahue said about Saddam Hussein what Kristof said about Musharraf: “Saddam was a bastard. But he was OUR bastard, just look at the pictures of Rumsfeld shaking his hand.”
…it’s one of those apocryphal phrases, and it’s sure had plenty of opportunity to get used!
Glen @ 177
“for fear of embedding victimhood in the pyche of all aboriginals”.
Your concern is heart warming indeed, Glen.
After all it’s not as if they have any reason to fell badly done by now, is there?
Prat.
Glen, looks like the next call for an apology will come from the Qld Libs after the Member for Gatton,Ian Rickuss (Nat),go stuck into Flegg during question time in the Qld Parliament this morning. Nothing like a good Lib/Nat brawl in the open on the first day.
Jen all the apology is going to do is install a legacy of victimhood for the aboriginals something that will be detrimental to their wellbeing as Noel Pearson has noted repeatedly. Sure those who suffered and were not saved would feel hard done by and they’ve been apologised quite rightly to by all the States.
Steve, Flegg probably deserved it, anyway Flegg shows why the Liberals are in such a pathetic position in State Queensland politics.
Yes Ron, but who would have won if the primaries where held when the STATES THEMSELVES originally agreed to hold them?
Rates , who knows and that is the problem
The original DNC decision under the management of Howard Dean
(hardly with a rationalpolitical history) of disenchanchising 2 large states I thought was poor and continues to be a ‘fairness’ problem for the WHOLE party
Rain,
i’m curious as to why you have such a negative view of Obama, but as you say, perhaps I’m jusy not hearing the evidence. This could be (and may well be) due to media bias, although I thought the MSM in the US was heavily weighted to the conservatives.
Please` enlighten me as to what he is doing that you find so distatseful- So far he appears to be behaving better than Hillary.
Rain,
Ask yourself this, would Hillary be fighting to get those delegates seated if Obama had won those two states? That’s why people don’t respect her stand in this matter, it’s self-motivated. Whether it’s just politics, or a cheap tactic, it looks like desparation and being a bit of a sore-loser. It’s also a big gamble, Americans generally like winners.
Re 182.
Apologies.
‘Prat’ just slipped out.
Jen,
Glen is a serial loser with his predictions, prognostications and that protruding lip. He is simply trying to wind you up.
Come tomorrow, the Apology will be made with overwhelming support of the Parliament. We then move on to the issues of indigenous health, education and work opportunities as a united nation with (nearly) everyone on the same page.
Unfortunately, Glen will continue to prattle his mean spirited inanities, but I sincerely hope that he too will see the boorishness of his views in time.
Glen, how many ‘Redfern Speeches’ did Howard give?
Speaking of Tony Abbott, very unkind, but picture is hilarious.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23201465-661,00.html
190
wayaway
Touche!
Howard’s Redfern Speech
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyQJUnSZXmk&feature=related
190
wayaway – none, but still Labor were in for 13 years and never apologised, that is my point.
Regarding ABC’s TV coverage of Parliament, it seems they have a 1 hour broadcast from 2pm to 3pm on sitting days, which apparently covers HoR or Senate question time, depending on the day.
However, there also appears to be a broadcast early the following morning (around 12:30 am). Does anyone know whether this is simply a repeat broadcast of the same question time as shown during the day? Or is it a broadcast of the question time from the other house, which was not shown during the day?
Glen,
Given that the stolen generation report was tabled until 1997 i would suggest it would have been difficult for the government to have apologised before then.
Howard sees the writing on the wall
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tjftg2XW_M&feature=related
Oh, that this had not been a fairy story.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ig9l39DAi80&feature=related
Yo ho ho, the ALP were in power for 13 years they had more than enough time for a report and to say Sorry and they didnt yet nobody has criticised them.
Wayaway Howie may not have had a ‘redfern’ but he did make a yell of a speech to Corroboree 2000: ‘Towards Reconciliation’.
Glen, are you seriously trying to favourably compare the Howard government to Hawke/Keating on aboriginal issues?
Oh, and I’ve just reread that ‘Towards Reconciliation’ speech, so, unless you wish to give me a good laugh (which is always appreciated), please don’t bother going down that road…
No but neither Government apologised Wayaway.
Glen,
Watch Parliament tomorrow. Remember, they will be apolgising for you too. Doesn’t that make you feel all warm and fuzzy.
Glen, does this sound like something that could possibly have been performed under the auspices of your side of politics?
I, MICHAEL LAVARCH, Attorney-General of Australia, HAVING REGARD TO the Australian Government’s human rights, social justice and access and equity policies in pursuance of section 11(1)(e), (j), and (k) of the Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission Act 1986, HEREBY REVOKE THE REQUEST MADE ON 11 MAY 1995 AND NOW REQUEST the Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission to inquire into and report on the following matters:
To:
(a) trace the past laws, practices and policies which resulted in the separation of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children from their families by compulsion, duress or undue influence, and the effects of those laws, practices and policies;
(b) examine the adequacy of and the need for any changes in current laws, practices and policies relating to services and procedures currently available to those Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples who were affected by the separation under compulsion, duress or undue influence of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children from their families, including but not limited to current laws, practices and policies relating to access to individual and family records and to other forms of assistance towards locating and reunifying families;
(c) examine the principles relevant to determining the justification for compensation for persons or communities affected by such separations;
(d) examine current laws, practices and policies with respect to the placement and care of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children and advise on any changes required taking into account the principle of self-determination by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.
IN PERFORMING its functions in relation to the reference, the Commission is to consult widely among the Australian community, in particular with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, with relevant non-government organisations and with relevant Federal, State and Territory authorities and if appropriate may consider and report on the relevant laws, practices and policies of any other country.
THE COMMISSION IS REQUIRED to report no later than December 1996.
Dated 2 August 1995
MICHAEL LAVARCH
Can’t effing believe it! Rudd, Gillard and company are on the RHS of the Speaker. Go you good thing.
Rain
I give your posts very little merit.
The reason being, you use highly emotive arguments and do not back up your arguments with facts.
What exactly are these ‘dirty tactics’ Obama is using?
Your analysis appears biased unless you provide substantiation to your posts.
We are not privy to your so-called insider Democrats, so humour us.
The apology, if nothing else, is revealing much about the raucous aristarchs.
The tactic of bogging the discussion down in deceptive minutiae (it wasn’t a generation – we were doing them a favour – the children were being abused – some have had careers which could never have happened otherwise – they were saved…) is a well known political tactic when a position which can’t possibly be supported, by argument or morality, is defended. And even here, at this late stage, it is still happening.
Get this, you lot – the children were taken away because of their colour. THEIR COLOUR. Nothing else.
No prizes for guessing which word beginning with R would best describe these sophists.
I’ve had a good look (obviously not exhaustive though) for evidence of Obama dirty tricks. The “evidence” falls into three categories.
1. Billary getting upset when Obama’s team points out her odious tactics. Evidently you can’t do that to her.
2. Stuff coming from nutjob anti-female Billary haters who have nothing to do with Obama or his team.
3. A very serious allegation that Obama encouraged Barbra Streisand to endorse Billary. Now this one would be absolutely despicable if true. I can think of no lower act than to stick Babs’ endorsement on a candidate but it’s denied by Obama’s team as follows:
Barack Obama supporters say that he’s just not capable of such tactics.
“Senator Obama had nothing to do with Barbra Streisand’s endorsement of Hillary Clinton. He didn’t talk her into it,” said campaign advisor Ed Senheis. “Admittedly, it’s a tough blow to take and it couldn’t happen to a nicer person, but it didn’t come from this organization. To suggest it did is simply more misdirection by the Clinton Machine… more politics as usual.”
Oh Dear, wavering Superdelegates and donors.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/11/some-top-clinton-backers-_n_86028.html
Obama interview
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8457.html
Clinton interview
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8453.html
Good reads to give you an insight into the personality of the candidates.
Jen @ 186 – depends how its worded, and how its taken in or out of context, and we all have our own biases in how we perceive the messages, whats important, and what is a non-issue. Most of what I’ve been reading the last few days, has been from internal Democratic Party sources mostly.
.
He’s in there to win, by fair means or foul, just nobody is reporting the foul means, under the radar, wouldn’t go with the “image”, and nobody will believe it anyway now so many neo-cons have come out to support him as their Republican “darling”. Election by media, his foul means are ignored, her foul means are beat up out of proportion, her fair means are ignored or trashed by media spin.
.
But just some examples, which may be non-issues to most supporters, but they go against my personal ethics, Its like the Worm during the Howard debates, my own is going down as time goes on. eg his dealings with the Nevada MSM prior to its caucus to spin-doctor Bill Clinton and Terrys visit to Vegas, his publicly laughing along with the Shuster incident, along with his wife Michelle over the Chelsea interview, the “claws” and “tea-party” comments, (which are gaining momentum along with his campaign, when you’re on a good thing, stick to it?) his public put-downs of LGBT groups joking about HIV/AIDS, (I thought Dems were supposed to care about civil rights for minorities?) and strangely — so many, many of the neo-cons suddenly finding him their Republican “darling”, stacking opens with Independents a kind of branch-stacking, along with hundreds of reports of bullying at open caucuses (which some states Dem Partys are taking consideration of as breaches of caucus rules in some precincts, but my impression from their comments is that it will be unlikely to go anywhere).
.
Some of the colurful rhetoric has been quite witty though, such as the Dem contest being reduced to the level of reality-TV subtle back-stabbing ‘Survivor’ Rules.
.
Then there’s the ugly mailers Obamas campaigners sent out, scare-mongering about Hilary’s health care plan policy. this must be what he meant by the “politics of hope.” Obama’s on the same old scare-mongering lies and attack politics?
.
He’s said he doesn’t know which Clinton he’s running against, Ha-Ha, joke, joke -even though his own wife campaigns for him without causing him to wonder who’s going to be President if he wins – Duh. I haven’t heard him apologize. He hasn’t quietly stopped the behavior without apologizing. Clinton did and has stopped. He hasn’t even made vague “mistakes were made” noises. Clintons have and stopped weeks ago. Obama is escalating it for all its worth, with continuing the Shuster and Chelsea attacks. Nor does he feel it’s important to be sure his own supporters respect everyone’s civil rights, with the increasing reports of bullying tactics.
.
Obama has back-tracked and double-dealt on issues, just as much as any other pollie. Like promising the coal industry subsidies for liquefied coal fuel. If that sounds like something Bush would do, it is. Then when so many industry reps and Republicans started falling all over him, he had to back-track and compromise, but not by much.
.
Iraq. This is a biggie. Clinton had been a major disappointment. But then *everybody* had been major disappointments. She was very far from alone. But Obama pointed out that he’d always been strong against the war, and that definitely spoke volumes to the masses …. Except that he didn’t. Once he was actually in Congress and in a position to act on his words, he didn’t. He sat on the back benches and played it safe. And then he used one vote out of dozens to pretend that there was some huge difference between him and Clinton (and most of the rest of the Democrat Party I might add). This is getting into truth-shading territory, and switches my ethics meters.
.
He plays the same political games as the rest. It is not change, it is not hope, it is just plain simple opportunism, he has a good hand and he’s playing it.
.
I know it has been said before, but how good is it to see Labor on the Government benches, and the poor old Keystone Kops party led by Horatio and Madame Lash, looking very irrelevant and forlorn.
Hi rain
keep up those posts.I like your insights and unlike others you dont waste bandwidth with nut job ramblings.
As I suspected Rain.
Your post at 211 was a mishmash of half truths, conspiracy theories and poor formatting.
Its hardly worthwhile rebutting your posts in that format.
Suffice to say briefly:
1. I’m not going to rebut propaganda with no links to any substantive source.
2. Independents and Republicans liking Obama is not a dirty tactic.
3. Jokes aren’t a dirty tactic.
4. I refer you to the interviews posted above, and let you again judge which candidate specialises in personal attacks and which was more gracious.
5. I haven’t heard about the false mailouts from Obama, but I have heard about the false mailouts by Hillary regarding Obama’s stance on abortion.
6. Obama is not MSNBC.
7. Iraq – Obama opposed it before the invasion, Hillary didn’t. Obama supported continued funding the troops whilst in Iraq already – that is not a contradiction.
It does appear that your posts are the ones that are biased, as opposed to the mass media.
Here is the link to point 5 above
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20080105/clinton-obama-abortion/
Rain-I find that Ben Smith, who is definitely MSM, is quite pro-Billary, much to the disgust of many of the bloggers at his site.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/
And on Ramos-Horta, more surgery on the right lung gunshot. I hope they can do a lobectomy or pneumonectomy in Darwin.
And Dolly blames Ramos-Horta for getting himself shot;
Dr Ramos Horta later waived an arrest warrant for Reinado, deciding instead to seek peaceful negotiations with the rebel leader.
Former foreign minister Alexander Downer questioned that tactic. “I’ve always thought that Major Reinado was a pretty dangerous person, very unstable,” he told the ABC.
Is the Huckster about to throw a curve-ball into the McCain Virginia chances. Anybody know what the current odds are?
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4b5bca0f-bbc7-4c45-9f5c-66e668c18b76
Rain @ 211 – [Most of what I’ve been reading the last few days, has been from internal Democratic Party sources mostly.]
Reading some your posts lately – are you related to the Clintons or their campaign? When you first started posting about this you appeared uncommitted either way, but lately you have really nailed your colours to the mast. I’m just wondering – do you have some hidden political agenda? Why otherwise post unsubstantiated scuttlebutt? It can’t be in the interests of balance.
RCP average polls for 12/2
Virginia 55/37
Maryland 55/32
DC No polls
We hear a lot of rhetoric about Obama needing to win a big state. News flash!!! These three states together seat more delegates than Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania. It’s simple arithmetic. A few moderate states adds up to a big one.
It looks like another 15%+ stomping for Clinton tomorrow (again).
Your own Leaders for whatever their reasons Glen WILL vote for the apology
The issue has been decided even by your own party….time to move on
JV @ 218, I think Rain is just having a bit of fun with us, while making a point about some of the attacks which Obama supporters are making on Hillary. It all just goes to prove the point about what a polarising figure she is IMHO.
“It’s simple arithmetic”
Clearly it is not for the Clinton strategists.
They advised Hillary to organize & run the big States , thinking the Nominee was in the bag.
Not sure if that is poor numeracy , poor politics or arrogance ….or all 3
Irrespective by end of month ,
even Hillarys mathematicans cad add up 37 States & find fatally she has one 10
What I find rather ironic is that Hillary Clinton claim she can better weather the attacks against her from the Republican machine, yet has consistently complained against so called media bias and criticism by fellow democrats throughout the democratic primaries.
Newsflash Hillary, it doesn’t get any easier from here.
#211 – Rain, Rain, don’t go away. Nominating Obama by the Dems to me is like snatching defeat from the jaw of victory. They are not yet ready to elect a Black President. The conservatives, such as the Faknews, are cheering for Obama, that should tell you something.
So far, Obama has had a dream run. He has not been put under any pressure at all. Just wait when they put the blow-torch on him. He will melt. Whereas, Hillary has been through and still standing.
Delegates to win
DC 2/12 P 15
Maryland 2/12 P 70
Virginia 2/12 P 83
Ohio 3/4 P 141
Texas 3/4 P 193
Penn. 4/22 P 158
TurningWorm @ 221 – A bit of fun? Maybe, but if Rain would just work some more on the delivery, and also the material, and the length, then there might be more laughs!
I’m sure it’s not you Rain, but I sometimes have an image of young diehard apparatchiks from the various candidates’ teams sitting in the bowels of a rented campaign building in a US city trawling the political net blogs and answering the critics, (even on Aussie blogs) seeing they can be read anywhere and are gaining in influence. Is that a bit paranoid? I’ll take another pill.
Yes JV, time for meds I think, and put on the alfoil hat as well, you just never know
The Finnigans at 224
I suggest you read this article
“Is Obama tough enough?”
http://nymag.com/news/politics/powergrid/43882/
Also bear in mind the Democrats are thrashing the Republicans in numbers that have turned up to the primaries. And Obama is current hot favourite for Presidency.
And from Obama himself:
I hope this debunks all your future arguments.
Another poll is up on the Virginia race (and remember this one is the one Hillary needs to do well in to head of the upstart). SurveyUSA is projecting a 60/38 split in Virginia for Obama.
http://www.pollster.com/08-VA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
Also out from SurveyUSA is a poll in Maryland projecting a 55/32 for Obama.
http://www.pollster.com/08-MD-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
In both cases we are seeing a consistent trend of undecided voters moving over to the Obama camp and polls close in on the final days. What is also interesting is the recent trend for voters to switch over to Obama on the actual day.
Rain -
Having read your reasons (tahnks for that) but I still don’t really understand your support fro Hillary over Obama seeing as I think she stacks up worse on the issues you have raised. Clearly we both want to see a republican defeat, and whoever gets the nomination I hope wins, but at this point I still, despite your arguments see Obama as a more worthy contestant.
Would it be fair to suggest that you are a rusted-on Hillary supporter?
I defintely assumed and hoped, that she would win, but am now far more impressed with Obama and have changed my preference.
Not that it matters a damn, given that I can’t vote.
Can you?
Basil @ 227 –
Can’t put on the alfoil hat unfortunately because it interferes with the frequency from my cranium plate – and then the voices would be angry …
Jen @ 230 – Good question to finish – welcome to Conspiracy World!
So Rain, are you now, or have you ever been … a registered US voter?
In concerning news from the front, Andrew Landeryou provides compelling questions about the judgement of Obama.
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2008/02/enemies-within-barack-obama-campaigners.html
232 -
Thanks GG.
That’s done it for me. Go McCain.
Hey jen et al, I wouldn’t say I was rusted on, or part of the ‘Clinton Machine’ LOL (but I do have a lot of family/friends etc living in the USA, I am also on several work e-lists and newsgroups etc, which being dominated by yanks have become dominated by topics on their primaries of late).
) then you might like to check out this commentary site:
.
Flat text is an unfortunate medium for communication, as there is no body language to moderate the meaning, and perhaps my peculiar word choices & grammar trigger different reactions in different people. Sometimes its the reader’s assumptions, not the writer’s intent.
.
Bottom line, I dont care that much about US elections etc, (not as much as I was desperate with the Oz ones last year) I’m just keenly interested, curious, just like many here are, I guess – (I also watch Battlestar Galactica with similar fervour and passion) — so, I’m not going to lose sleep over it, whatever happens, though I might get a little distressed with a McCain win.
.
First up back in early Jan, my early scannings to inform myself was up there for Edwards, especially after the 3-way Democrat TV debate. He dropped out, and of the remaining I didn’t have much druthers, both equally blahh, boring, same old, to me – but have watched how its panned out in the weeks since, and so yeh, if I was to have a vote, it would be for Clinton now. Not that I think Clinton is anything so wonderful to write home about mind you – dont get me wrong on that – just Obama has continued to slowly sink, little by little, on my personal opinion meter as time has gone on, leaving Clinton behind as the only one left. Unfortunately.
.
As for those clamouring for “facts”, I dont see that many here?? lots of conjecture, opinions (heated, and not so heated, emotive and not so emotive), speculation, insights, comments, what ifs, and all sorts of 2-cents worth, (and plenty of YES. WE. CAN.), and re-posting a lot of pro-Obama MSM quotes, and some freakingly good analysis (especially on the stats) from time to time.
.
But if you want some facts, from alternative perspectives, that quote/link directly from public domain US govt sites for example, as well as other less well-known US media sources, that you are welcome to verify,
(I’ve done some of them myself – but I’m not *THAT* keen to detail every single one
.
http://www.politidose.com/search?updated-min=2008-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-08%3A00&updated-max=2009-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-08%3A00&max-results=50
.
Plenty of facts, links, and pointers to other sources of facts, there to keep you going, if you follow the threads through from say, early January to today?
(Also has some interesting vids of primary campaign ads released prior to Feb 5)
.
oh… and *huggles* to those who do like my posts *sniff*.. didn’t see you on my first pass.. I figure if I’m not getting responses like Glen gets, I must be doin OK..
232
Greeensborough Growler
Oh dear! Is that a serious article or comic relief?
How many people would have any idea that the iconic figure of Che (and usually in ‘that’ photo!) was anything but a young idealist in search of utopia?
I’ve seen some desperate journalism in my day, but purlease, that’s infantile!
Anyone who put up that poster probably knows nothing about the historical figure nor the historical facts, so going on a diatribe about Che is hardly the point. Suggesting that Obama has revolutionary forces, ready to execute the opposition on the strength of one poster is laughable nonsense.
Funny, though.
#232 – GG – as I have predicted the “swift-boating’ has started, although this is just a mild “paddle boating”. It will get nastier.
Rain: Linking a pro-Hillary blog site has no more credibility then linking a pro-obama blog site.
I will review the material on that page further at a later stage, but on a cursory glance, it appears to be a classic ‘all accusations’ and ‘no facts’ type of partisan blog.
KR,
You obviosly have bought the hagiography about Che. The fact remains as to why Obama’s staff had that photo prominently displayed in his office.
A worrying sign for the Obama bandwagon.
Rain -
fair call. Let’s just hope either one of them trounces the dreadful incumbents.
KR-
I am assuming the borough man was jesting. Didn’t we all have Che posters in the 70’s? Along with psychadelic Hendrix.
(Hope I don’t get arrested under the anti-terrorism laws. Wouldn’t have dared admit it under Howard.)
I was listening to triple j on the sorry thing. I heard two interesting things.
1. They had a tape of the Rodent actually saying sorry to the stolen generation in much the same words as Rudd but it was not said in parliament. It was in 1997 at the Reconciliation Council or something like that.
2. Andrew Bolt was on (first time ever) and claimed that when you really looked at the evidence in each “stolen” case, that he had only been able to find about ten that were definitely stolen. What is the evidence, in hard terms, for the number of truly “stolen” children? Before everyone lynches me, I am not saying he is right, I would really like to know as the reporter on triple j couldn’t nail him and they’re usually pretty good with rebuttals to crap arguments.
Here is the wording of Sorry for tomorrow.
Liberals better hope Obama does not win. I’m sure he will not forget what was said by howard
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4sNQegNssI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygD4zWYzKVc
Further on the Che image:
If you check the video on Fox, there’s this note:
The office featured in this video is funded by volunteers of the Barack Obama Campaign and is not an official headquarters for his campaign.
…and some young women, who don’t look like murdering revolutionaries to me, are there with a Che poster in the background. OK, it’s in poor taste considering the Latino implications, but that’s about all one could say about it. I”m sure they think it’s somehow ‘cool’ and symbolizes their ’struggle’, and would be horrified if they actually knew any better.
239
Greeensborough Growler
Ah, how do you figure that? I haven’t bought ‘anything’ and you clearly did not read what I said.
Now, go back and try again and I’ll give you extra points for English comprehension if you can get it right this time! LOL
240
jen
Nah, jen, I had Beethoven, who looked even madder than Karl Marx, and sure as hell upset the folks (probably the real point LOL)
KR,
As the official all singing, all dancing you beaut, beware of substitute leader of the Poll Bludger Official Obama cheersquad,……… You would say that!
re Che poster
lets be alittle careful of ANY anti Hillay or anti Obama material until its verified
lets give Obama the benefit of the doubt
If the roles were reversed on Hillary re the Che poster we’d say the same ?
Jen , surely you jest re MCain..you are a fully fledged officer on the Obama ship?
GG
careful kr might get upset -people in glass houses and all that
Ron,
There is no doubt! Doubt is for those desperately going for the cover up. It was on Landeryou’s blog, so it must be true.
Gusface,
People in glass house should not dress in the nude. KR please note.
246
Greeensborough Growler
Oh, so you’ve read it again have you?
So I didn’t actually endorse some hagiography?
So I didn’t actually say about some volunteer Obama supporters:
“The fact remains as to why Obama’s staff had that photo prominently displayed in his office.
A worrying sign for the Obama bandwagon.”
So, tell me again, who whipped up the silly story in the first place?
Check your facts, read things properly, and then answer.
I would say that, wouldn’t I? LOL
In plain English, again, especially for GG, who seems to have problems understanding the meaning:
If you check the video on Fox, there’s this note:
The office featured in this video is funded by volunteers of the Barack Obama Campaign and is not an official headquarters for his campaign.
…go and look for yourself, I did!
Or do you hate it when the facts get in the way of your hysterical posts?
Effing hell, if one poster of one long dead Che is creating such havoc and consternation. Can you imagine what would happen if some relative of Obama in Kenya is accused of an alleged terrorism link.
I told you so, I told you so.
Does anyone else notice, that when under pressure, KR goes the punch, his blogs get longer and longer and looks for some esoteric sideline to avoid the realisation that his preferred candidate has a few skeletons clanging around.
I haven’t.
254
Greeensborough Growler
hang about there GG, you just mad an ass of yourself and tried to slag me in the process.
Not related to that ESJ by any chance?
I’ve got no grudge with you, but try that crap on and I’ll give it right back.
So, asking for supporters now are you?
Sounds like you can’t stick up for yourself.
#254 – GG – I did ask KR one time whether he got a life. He reassured me that he did, not just skeleton.
One moment there GG:
Does anyone else notice, that when under pressure, KR goes the punch, his blogs get longer and longer and looks for some esoteric sideline to avoid the realisation that his preferred candidate has a few skeletons clanging around.
I haven’t.
…you come on with some absolute hysterical nonsense bit of crappola from some blogger, you don’t even bother to check the primary source, then you claim it’s Obama’s office, and then you’ve got the audacity to accuse me of ’some esoteric sideline’
You take the friggin’ cake for talking out your behind!
Wow, an offensive flag in a volunteer’s campaign office? That’s even worse than an offensive flag on top, or out the front, of the South Carolina State House! Oh wait, maybe it isn’t…
Rain, I’m sorry, I’ve gotta agree with Asanque. That blog is pretty heavily partisan.
256
The Finnigans
Looks to me like someone wants to assume the mantle of ESJ, toss out rubbish and then hurl abuse if you get caught doing it.
Funny, but I thought it was so civil and entertaining here since the last serial abuser left, but there’s always one ready to take on the role.
Ho hum….
258
Al
Hahahahaaaaaa!
Touche!
Conferderate flag, now that wouldn’t have any implications flying over the official biulding, now would it?
(Of course, they don’t know what it means! LOL)
KR – You are missing the point totally. It does not matter whether the mud they are throwing at Obama is true or not. It does not matter a bit. It is enough that they are throwing and it will hurt Obama big time. I told you so. Don’t forget, I am on your side.
KR,
Goodness me, Hysteria is you.
You are so full of yourself, you are coming out the other side.
There are two postings on this site with over a thousand contributions. Why don’t you run your bullshitorometer to see how may are yours. (Personal guess 750).
Someone introduces an alternative paradigm to the discussion and you are out of control. You really need to get over your self.
Ron.
Tongue is formly planted in cheek.
GG I was assuming the same with the Che thing.
Rain
I’ve now had an opportunity to review that blog.
One thing – at least its very anti-republican which I can sympathise with.
It raises many issues on media bias.
However, I note this piece which was never corrected.
Obama has since agreed to two debates. One in Ohio, one in Texas. I didn’t see an update on this post.
Another post on media bias
Whilst slightly misleading, this mailer appears to be true.
The balance of that post simply has no links or facts to back it up.
And most of the rest of that blog (which is really really long!) has many Hillary endorsements and some articles.
KR ..could also be some underemployed Lib staffer venting some spleen!!
Agh, but all that fades into insignificance after watching the opening of Parliament today………..what a moving occasion it was. Admit to a tear in my eye after reading the ’sorry’ statement and seeing that wonderful statesman Fred Chaney interviewed by Kez this evening. He and Pedro Georgiou are my ideal Libs proving it is possible to be tory and have a heart.
Makes this new Australian proud!!
262
Greeensborough Growler
“Someone introduces an alternative paradigm ”
nup, you post some ridiculous beat up story, don’t check the basic facts, and draw a stupid conclusion.
All I did was point out you error, and then you, buster, went for the full throttle insults.
Now, tell me who’s ‘out of control’?
Go on, tell me again?
265
Megan
Yep, great day, and it sure as hell has put the light back on the hill, ah, so to speak!
KR,
People in glass houses shouldn’t!
Have you checked how many posts?
You seem extremely agitated.
I stuffed up my last post by not including the link, so I’ll repeat it.
Andrew Bolt was on triple j (first time ever) and claimed that when you really looked at the evidence in each “stolen generation” case, that he had only been able to find about ten that were definitely stolen. What is the evidence, in hard terms, for the number of truly “stolen” children? Before everyone lynches me, I am not saying he is right, I would really like to know as the reporter on triple j couldn’t nail him and they’re usually pretty good with rebuttals to crap arguments.
http://news.smh.com.au/parliament-to-say-sorry-for-loss/20080212-1rmu.html
BTW I had prints by MC Escher and the Imaginary Prison sequence by Piranesi on my wall. I’m not ashamed to be a dork!
GG
i came to a similair conclusion ealier,and like that nutjob nostils posts, i simply now ignore em,makes reading the blogs real quick
“empty vessels make the most noise” LOL
Thinking about the Republican race (something that no one seems to be commenting on here), can anyone here explain how Huckabee has managed to close 21% in the polls in Virginia in just 3 days?
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f37ee2e5-11bf-4587-abfd-727426356f37
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4b5bca0f-bbc7-4c45-9f5c-66e668c18b76
And how does a Huckabee win in Virginia (which is winner-takes-all) affect the GOP nomination race?
Obama said: “We are the ones we’ve been waiting for, we are the change that we seek”. Hmmm, if this is not a messiah complex, then Kumbaya My Lord, Kumbaya.
268
Greeensborough Growler
I’m only ‘agitated’ by people who abuse others gratuitiously, which if you go back and check, you’ve just been doing.
How many posts I make is my business. Go and have a look on some other threads, there are some that have a lot of one or two posters, that is their perogative.
Funny, but most people either ignore my posts (I recommend that, if they bother you!), or engage with their opionions.
The one’s I don’t like are unsolicited attacks. If you’ve got a problem about my posts, then that’s your problem, don’t lay it on me.
270
gusface
oh, yeah, mr ‘orifice’ has spoken again! (I don’t forget little tag along snot chuckers who only ever hide behind the big boys! LOL)
You could try growing up too, your silly post is infantile.
271
Swing Lowe
Hcuk (Reg. Trade Mark) has got big Mo!
I think Kansas gave him a bump and the McCain haters have got nowhere else to go (OK Ron Paul is just too freaky, even for them! LOL)
KR,
I read 273 and had a tear in my eye.
I’m only ‘agitated’ by people who abuse others gratuitiously, which if you go back and check, you’ve just been doing.
I then read 274. You are a wanker!
oh, yeah, mr ‘orifice’ has spoken again! (I don’t forget little tag along snot chuckers who only ever hide behind the big boys! LOL)
You could try growing up too, your silly post is infantile.
272
The Finnigans
Kumbaya indeed! It’s got a quasi-relgious feel, it’s got JFK and MLK and youtube all rolled into one.
Makes Hillary look so, oh, whitebread, doesn’t it? LOL
276
Greeensborough Growler
Ah, except for one VERY important point GG:
gusface once told me that I’m talking out of my ‘orifice’!
Now, let’s be frank, that’s infantile, and so is hiding behind your silly posts and chucking snot, which is exactly what he’s doing.
So you’ve got a team now? You and big brave gusface who only ever comes out and chucks when the big boy does it first?
Go away and grow up, the two of you.
By the way GG, I’m stil waiting for your comment about the Obama ‘office’ and what that Che poster really means to his campaign.
Or have you decided that you were wrong, but don’t want anyone to notice? LOL
KR,
1. Gus face is not Frank
2. Gusface tells no lies.
3. Great conspiracy theory is us.
Obama’s office needs to answer for their misjudgements, not any one else.
So KR – It’s OK for Obama to bring religion into his campaign yet we rile at Huckleberry for bringing religion into his. A double standard we had to have?
Swing Lowe,
In the long term, what happened in Washington State is more important for the relationship between Huckabee/theocons and McCain and the tattered remnants of the ‘regular Republicans’.
Essentially, very serious questions exist over whether the votes were counted properly in their recent primary. Or indeed whether the votes were counted at all.
Here is the Huckabee campaign’s recent letter
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/images/2008-02-11_huck_rollins_letter_wsrp.jpg
Now, if Huckabee thinks that election was stolen and they arent being given a fair shake by the Regular Republicans, then they will presumably be less enthusiastic to turn out, vote etc etc
“BUMFIGHTS!!!…BUMFIGHTS…GET YER OFFICIAL BUMFIGHTS POPCORN HERE”
263
jen Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Ron.
Tongue is formly planted in cheek.
GG I was assuming the same with the Che thing.
Well we are happy sailors here on the ship Jen
Is anyone saying Obama would endorse the Che poster …think not
so its either a setup or Fox News so “fair & balanced”
or a very naive Obama volunteer
careful finnigans-he might go you as well
ps i think kr’s tin foil has sprung a leak
pps “snot chucker” pot..kettle…black
280
The Finnigans
Ah, nup, Obama does not pander to the god bothers with folksy down on the farm quotes from the good book for every talking point.
What I said was it’s quasi-religious. In fact Obama has the kind of magnetism that begets (ah, good old testament word!) a cult like following. He’s the ‘real deal’ in that respect, whereas Hcuk’s just another TV evangelist spruiker.
Is it clever politics? Well, proof of the pudding, as they say. Will it carry him to success? Maybe. Have I got money on him? Yep. And McCain.
So I actually put my money where my mouth is, unlike some little snot chuckers! LOL
During the last Federal election here, many of us suspected that the great ‘economic numbers’ were just the tip, and not the iceberg, at least not the one that was headed towards us, quietly in the dark economic oceans of subprime catastrophe and lurking inflation. And yet, despite the uneasy feeling that wresting the treasury benches would be a little bit like taking the wheel of the Titanic, we still wanted desperately to be rid of the Rodent’s dreary grey decade of wedge politics and squalid uncultured wars.
In many ways, our little electoral pond is a small reflection of the US, and the same tectonic movements are in play, but on a much, much bigger scale. Like us, they’re sick of the inept and dissembling administration, bungling and lying its way through gross mismanagement of so many things from Katrina to Iraq and dismantling the constitutional rights in the name of the ‘war on terror’. But also like us, the economic situation is not good, the underlying problems are surfacing quickly to expose a massive iceberg about to rip into the side of their ship.
Up on the bridge, the two leading Democrat contenders are armwrestling each other for the wheel, and it’s a fight to the death and then with seconds ticking, the winner must change course, miss the economic iceberg, then sail through the storms of the Middle East debacle before they can even begin to feel safely free of the challenges looming over them.
But like here, we know the challenges, and we like the sudden veering of course that Rudd has taken us on, and as we move away from the previous course we do feel uplifted and do feel optimistic enough to face the big challenges we know are just over the horizon. I suspect America will do the same, but whoever gets their hands on the wheel, it will be a mighty big job, and it’s going to take a lot of the nation to feel good about the change of direction. Whoever takes charge will need their goodwill.
I sincerely wish them luck.
mate @ 282,
I’ve got the “Fantails” franchise all stitched. They have KR’s postings on the wrapper and you have to buy 25 boxes to get the whole set.
#284 – Gusface – Only for the good of Obama. The good they die young. Like I said before, he is a naughty boy, because it should be lady first.
Is this a blog or a bar room brawl?
I’ll come back later.
Greeensborough Growler 287
LMFAO
“I’ve got the “Fantails” franchise all stitched. They have KR’s postings on the wrapper and you have to buy 25 boxes to get the whole set.”
Fantails would have to be the size of a shoe box to fit one KR’s posts on it, you wouldn’t need to eat anything else for a week.
Think I might snap up the carry bag francise for the shoe box size fantail.
287
Greeensborough Growler
So, you haven’t bothered to correct your posts about Obama’s campaign and some nonsense story about a poster on the wall?
Oh, but you’ve made up a really clever insult about me, oh, look, isnt’ that clever how you actually avoid your silly mistakes and insults and go on doing the same silly thing.
Boy, where do your posts end up? On a toilet roll?
You take the cake, the same as ESJ, all p!ss and wind, signiflying nothing but your own ignorance.
I always thought this country of mine has no soul. I think we have found our soul. The heritage of our indigenous comrades is our soul. I saw that today and I hope to see it again tomorrow.
KR,
There is nothing to correct. Learn to live with alternative points of view.
You are an easy target. Our team calls you Uranium 235 because so little effort creates a big explosion.
Personal abuse while denying you do it. Hypocrite.
The Finnigans @ 293
I have been bouncing around this for days and I think you found the right word.
Tips hat!
jen @ 240 – How do we know you haven’t been arrested by ASIO for the Hendrix poster and they are now forging your posts to lure us into confessing the deepest, darkest secrets of our misspent youth so they can put us in the next cell?
294
Greeensborough Growler
It’s not an ‘alternative point of view’ it was an outright bit of claptrap that came out of your mouth and you are not man enough to admit your mistake, instead you attack me.
So don’t lecture me about ‘hypocricy’, not until you’ve learned how to actually behave.
You and ESJ, eh? Same old story, get caught, turn nasty.
Comrade GG (und uffa’s)
u haf giffen avay ze conspiracy dunderheads
now ze barstitch vill no ve ar all part of ze grand plan to insult and abuse,in ze childish vay,kiwibillybong removedfromrealityville
ps tell mutha to put ze roast in ze offen
gusface@ 298
awww, I had a date with Tom Cruise!
#294 GG – Uranium 235 eh? Yes, my hero Mr. Einstein who came up with this magical formula E=KR2 where E = Ego , while working as a lowly patent clerk in the Swiss Patent office and shunned by the academic establishment. This magical formula definitely changed the world with the big bang at Hiroshima.
gusface,
I’ve just been critcal of Che and you call me comrade.
Why don’t you focus a KR bomb on my house.
Leaders are expenable when you are ambitious, eh?
HHAHAHAHAH It’s so funny!
Half hour ago Joe Hockey just opposed parliament sitting on Fridays. HHHAHAHAAH this is the guy who ran an I.R. system that would cut wages and force people to work on public holidays and weekends, but he can’t even get himself out of bed to go to the House of Reps on Fridays!
The opposition, who held parliament in contempt when in government, are now opposing parliament sitting on Fridays because last year there were 4 question times a week and this year there will be 4 question times a week. Last year there were 3 M.P.I. debates a week, this year there will be 3 M.P.I. debates a week.
Yes, apparently the number 4 is bigger than the number 4 when the Liberals are in government.
Apparently the number 3 is bigger than the number 3 when the Liberals are in government.
The Liberals didn’t mind losing the election, but DON’T ask them to work on Fridays!
Thankfully they will lose this debate, the natural party of government has the numbers!
Showson,
There is apparently a rule that says that Libs don’t work on days that finish with “Y”.
Showson, that is gold. Laziness in opposition is trait of conservatives and it looks like they are preparing for a decade or two in their usual fine style.
comrade mate
ze state ov thumb cwuise’s date iss your pwoblem
comrade GG
und u kan haff ALL ze eiderdown tonite
methinks the rudd spider walked along leaving a thin, almost undetectable trail behind him… seems the fatest fly was the first caught before the web is even finished
MayoFeral-
watch your phone.
Bill, with all of the talk of Australian politics here I think you need to start a new domestic thread so that we can start talking about the US primaries in it.
Well, that makes sense considering it was the first day of the 42nd Australian Parliament!
305, 306, 307
Once upon a time,
There was a person with a false german accent, who was bitten by an undetectable spider with a comunications link to MayoFeral. Darth KR loomed menancingly……………..
In the Republican primary in Virginia tomorrow McCain is $1.10 and Huckster $4.00.
jen @ 307 – No, it’s okay. I fooled ‘em by getting an unlisted number. By the time they figure it out Haneef’s great, great grandson willl be graduating from med school.
“The opposition, who held parliament in contempt when in government, are now opposing parliament sitting on Fridays ”
I seem to remember a senator that would get tanked on his flight home on the Thursday night, meant he could spend Friday recovering and still have the weekend to enjoy. Poor boy will now have to choose between his usual tank session or only having one day of the weekend to enjoy
“#286 KR – good post!
The Leader of the House, Athony Albanese, speculated that Wilson Tuckey didn’t want to stay in Canberra on Fridays because he couldn’t “last that long”.
Hhahahahh Paul Neville just accused Albansese of making “Smart arse remarks”.
Here it is! Hallejujah.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23202612-5013172,00.html
Showson, I thought that the landed gentry were against Friday sittings because it interfered with the cattle mustering on the weekends.
there was movement at the pollbludger, for the word had passed around
that the colt from Che Guevara had got away
And had joined the pub brawl with jen, mayoferal and greeeensborough bound
so all the pollbludgers had gathered to the fray.
All the tried and noted bludgers from terminals near and far
Had mustered at the homebludge overnight,
For the bludgers love hard bludging where the wild pollsters are,
And the regular pollsters always do battle with delight.
There was gusface, who made his pile when Rudd won the cup,
The old man with his heart as pure as snow;
But few could ride beside him when his blood was fairly up—
He would go wherever Che Guevara could go.
And Kirribilli of the Overkill came down to lend a hand,
No better bludger ever held such pain;
For never one could throw him while his teeth were gritted in the sand,
He learnt to bludge while driving in the rain.
And Jen was there, a stripling on a small and weedy beast,
She was something like a racehorse undersized,
With a touch of Timor pony— ummm..forgot how the rest goes …
something about “three parts thoroughbred at least—” or would that be glen?
umm.. clip-clop and blah.. such as are by pollbludgers prized.
Apologies to banjo, and che..
.
The last polls all show Obama to win convincing in Virginia , DC & Maryland
the end is near
ShowsOn : saw wilson on the late news…he seemed overjoyed by proceedings
Intrade projections for the Democratic nominee ..
Obama: 70
Clinton: 30
Phew, bit of a rumble in the jungle here tonight!
New nomination for next Governor General: Fred Cheney, what a thoroughly decent man, have always respected him and even more so after tonight with Red Kez on 7:30, at least there are some Libs with soul.
#322
Yep – someone let the cat in (again).
Davidoff: the markets know that Obama is the winner for the Democrats.
The odds for Democrats to be the winning party has dropped since Obama took the lead as most likely democratic candidate.
#324 asanque – how much of a change?
The democrats had been steady on 1.55 for the last 3 months. They’ve now dropped to 1.49.
Its a small but significant change
Obama is also into 1.44 and Clinton over $3.10 now for Democratic candidate.
Showson @ 315 “The Leader of the House, Athony Albanese, speculated that Wilson Tuckey didn’t want to stay in Canberra on Fridays because he couldn’t “last that long”.
.
Methinx it has to do with the awful Friday Canberra airport commuter shuffle/shuttle/schmozzle, (especially for west aussies who wanna commute home on weekends), but they can stop complaining, Canberra finally got its extra cheap no-frills airline back as of this week…
.
.. but it only goes to Sydney..MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Hi davidoff,
Nice to see you out to play.
Kevin Rudd has released the words of the apology. I’ve posted it at 317.
Do you reckon there are enough facts in it!
USA is Godzone. In most of central and south America Che Guevara has been a pinup for national pride and anti-yankee feelings for decades but in the USA he sends the right wing mad and frothing at the mouth. An outburst of democracy (mostly under GWB who secretly diverted troops to Iraq to give the rest of the Americas a break) results in a majority of these countries with leftist governments. Thank God for GWB! And now Che is rumored to be alive, or at least reborn, somewhere in Texas. Bring on the heart attacks.
#326 thanks
Just did some digging around. The following graphs (and in particular the long term trends) should have Republicans worried.
Democrats win (66):
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=173055&z=1202818288066#
Republican win (34):
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=173054&z=1202818419136#
Asanque @ 324
And that drop in odds is in line with the current head-to-head polls – which have been similar for weeks now – showing Obama with a much better chance of beating McCain than Clinton.
#391 Rain
very clever
re my good friend Jen , the additional words may be:
‘with beauty beyond compare’
and KR will enjoy your ‘poem’ next time he logs in
but I have to say some other comments against KR here tonight are completely
unjustified. He’s passionate & there ain’t enough of that these days
and The Finnegans gee I hope your sense that a black man is not yet electable in the US is misplaced but as for ‘dirt’ to come , yep it’ll come in Repug buckets
as for me, I’m sitting on the champers awaiting ‘opening’ instructions
Wakefield @ 330,
It is worse than that, he is alive on this blog. KR has withdrawn but by golly there are some sympathisers here.
We salute your flagons, sir.
I don’t think the Dem race is over yet. Hillary is marginally ahead now and will – I guess – be behind (say by 100 delegates or so) after March 4.
She then has seven weeks of “clear air” to attack Obama, without those nasty press reports about primary results (Penn is not till April 22 or thereabouts, and the rest are after that).
The money gap is good for Obama but it is not the whole story.
I think Hillary will fight to the bitter end, and I don’t think she is going to see a delegate deficit of 100 when she wakes up on March 5, with over 1,000 (including super-dels) still to be allocated, plus an argument to be made over Florida and Michigan, as the bitter end.
rain@319
pure gold
clarifications
1.notrils@270 refers to the poster known as nostradamus (not snot) btw should read nostrils in orig. post
2.che is actually quite a complex guy and his anti-hero status doesnt resound with (recently) history-no big deal if obama has his poster or not
3.re obama v clinton-in a FAIR race obama would be a shoe -in,but unfortunately the usa (read dem machine) is not ready for a minority president-be they native,latino,black etc (though according to stats minority make up over 60% of usa pop)
4.kr-i honestly dont know who the f gg is (or anyone else on this site for that matter)
335 – Correct Dyno, the race is far from over.
However, discount Florida and Michigan, at best there will be a revote, which will only benefit Obama. Even the worse case scenario only has Hillary gaining about 20 delegates based on proportionality in those 2 states.
It all hinges on Ohio and Texas.
My view is Hillary is doomed.
However for the astute punter, the question is when to hedge your bets.
I jumped on Obama again after Super Tuesday knowing 9 favourable primaries were to come.
I’ve already partially hedged on Hillary and the question is how far will she drift.
In my opinion she will lose the next 5 primaries and drift to about $4.00.
That is when the value will come back into play as Texas and Ohio could do anything.
#335 Dyno
I agree that the scenario you paint is plausible, even probable – but I’m guessing that by March 4th – everyone will know which way the tide is going and your going to see a lot of senior Democrats pushing for a clean solution. It will be case of being between a rock and a hard-place – if she goes forward against the interests of the party she will loose a lot of political capital on the Hill (and I figure this would probably be permanently lost capital). If she folds with grace she can maintain her integrity as New York’s Senator and Bill keeps his reputation and international standing.
331
davidoff Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Just did some digging around. The following graphs (and in particular the long term trends) should have Republicans worried.
Democrats win (66):
Republican win (34):
look at that davidoff , the interesting point was the sharp Democrat rise right on the new year which has contiued ?
GG
Tony Jones interviewed Abbott about the apology on lateline and compensation.
Jones brought up Abbott and Costello’s libel suit and especially Abbotts words in that case that sorry doesn’t mean anything unless you pay. Jones asked Abbott if that meant he was in favour of compensation as well as the apology.
Abbott dogged it and said compensation was Rudd’s problem.
Saw Bronny in parliament, I’m not a polly tragic just thought I’d watch a bit of the new first one, and she said that making parliament sit on Fridays would lead to the government being voted out at the next election!
330 Wakefield
Just to correct the record, to actually show what I said about the “Che” poster:
Anyone who put up that poster probably knows nothing about the historical figure nor the historical facts, so going on a diatribe about Che is hardly the point. Suggesting that Obama has revolutionary forces, ready to execute the opposition on the strength of one poster is laughable nonsense.
…in other words, those kids probably have no idea who or what Che was, it’s just a poster to them.
I clearly did NOT say I’m a ’sympathiser’ and once again GG, must resort to lying to cover the fact that he completely got it wrong about whose office they were in.
Ho hum!
When the poor boy cannot even comprehend a staightfoward couple of sentences without getting it COMPLETELY wrong, you do have to wonder! LOL
Interesting post Asanque.
Latest odds I have seen for McCain are 2.85 which indicates a 35% win chance. Given that the Republicans have won 7 of 10 elections in the last forty years I would have thought the odds quite heroic.
The final outcome will be at best 45/55.
I’d be taking the odds to McCain and punting your preferred Democrat.
331
davidoff
The only fly in the ointment, or maybe the biggest one, is that the longer Obama and Clinton slug it out, the more likely they’ll split the party and damage their prospects in November.
There’s no ‘quick kill’ for either, so the thing running to the wire and the Supers getting to do the thumbs up and down thing will be very hard on the respective supporters.
This is going to be a long year.
Dyno # 335
yes that will be the Hillary stategy you described
But a point comes for the party Chief’s & through them to the Superdelegates that the Party’s interests to have a Candidate (Hillary) who lost 26 out of 36 Primarys by end Feb
Its this credibility imbalance in States which may cause pressure to be put on her to exit gracefully paricularly if Superdelegates break for Obama
which I expect to occur
asanque @ 337,
Agree with you it all hinges on Ohio and Texas.
I think “momentum” comes with its own in-built trap – a trap called “expectations”.
If Hillary gets out of Ohio/Texas with a 50/50 result her campaign will say “we’ve stopped the bleeding, this guy looked unstoppable but we’ve slowed him down”. And of course they’ll only be, at most, 100 delegates behind if they can get that result on March 4.
In my view, at that point it will be a case of “stand back and watch the fight” for the following seven weeks (and probably beyond).
Obama probably needs to win 55-60% of the two candidate vote across Ohio and Texas to deliver the knockout blow (and even in that case, only if she then agrees to give up).
I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama won either Texas or Ohio. Here are his projected losses, from his teams spreadsheet.
Ohio 46%/ 53%
Texas 47%/ 51%
In the last week, he has performed about 15% BETTER than his projections. If the momentum keeps up, he could come close or even win. They are caucuses though which is against him. Latinos are evidently not won over by rhetoric so Texas won’t swing as much as the recent states.
Billary’s backers have said she needs resounding victories in both Texas and Ohio or they will be pulling out (but surprisingly wouldn’t be quoted on that!).
342 – GG
Given all polls are showing McCain neck and neck with Clinton and Obama, 2.85 is not bad odds.
However, I am of the view the current environment just is no good for the republicans this year.
Nevertheless, I won’t be at all surprised to see those odds shorten in the next few months.
I’m by no means an expert in US politics.
Nice to see today’s events in Canberra get noticed:
http://www.salon.com/wires/ap/world/2008/02/11/D8UOCIB01_australia_aborigines/index.html
…and not word about what ’stolen’ does or doesn’t mean.
Bloody Julie Bishop trying to parse ’stolen’ was so damn tacky I hope she chokes on the word tomorrow.
Dio @ 346,
Well, you could be right about Hillary’s backers, I’m not sure.
Must say though that I don’t read her as someone who would quit having just got a 50/50 result, and still within strking distance of the lead.
Running out of money (or out of super-delegate support) could conceivably change it all, though.
Wouldn’t it be fun to be the one chosen to “tap her on the shoulder”!
It is high time for this simple, subtle statement.
And it is a pity for the Liberals that they cannot quite swallow their prejudices. Do they have no humility; no desire to improve? But enough of them. They are irrelevant now. They are the past and should be left to their futile laments, along with the indecencies, the cruelties and the bigotries that have called out for redress for so long.
It is high time to say and hear and think of these things; to make amends; and make a fresh start.
I am not easily carried along by political statements, but I am thankful for this one and – hopefully not for the only time – proud of the leadership that has been shown by the PM.
Hillary is like the Terminator, never count her out.
She has a well oiled machine, many great connections and is still marginally ahead in the pledged delegate and super delegate count.
However, Obama is a once in a generation candidate.
347
asanque
Don’t worry, none of us here are ‘experts’ on US elections, and the only expert told us it would be over Feb 5th.
More than once, if I recall correctly, and in no uncertain terms! LOL
But mostly we get to exchange a lot of info and opinions and for the most part, it’s all quite interesting, and I for one have learnt heaps about US politics, an area that never interested me nearly as much as it does this year.
350
blindoptimist
Likewise, and it’s a bloody good feeling.
GG @ 342,
Odds on McCain are ok, I guess, but I suspect this will be the second time (2000 being the first) that GWB will be the reason for McCain failing to become President.
I think the Democrats are pretty convinced of that, too, which is why I don’t think Hillary will give up on March 5 (unless she gets really thumped on March 4). I reckon she’ll think she can spend two more months in a (possibly) sordid fight for the nomination, and then still beat a Republican, this year.
asanque @ 351,
Totally agree with all that.
Asanque,
And you are not good on odds.,
Once either Clinton or Obama is eliminated then the Democrat odds will shrink to about 1.90 for either candidate. Mccain will shrink to about 2.05. The best value on McCain is now.
346
Diogenes
The off the record remarks quoted in a couple of NYTimes articles are not very confident, it’s all ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ and there’s definitely a feeling of circling the wagons.
But I don’t count her out, despite Obama’s Big Mo, he must not slip even a little. In other words, he must keep outperforming or she can claim to have stemmed the tide, as someone just pointed out.
He is playing this like a high wire act, and must convince the voters that he’ll not fall off, and his chosen tactic to keep highly emotional rhetoric and appeals to an almost mystical belief in change as his motiff, is vulnerable to losing its shine.
So far, however, it’s working.
GG @356,
Can’t follow the logic of that.
The people setting the odds know that McCain is (virtually) in the last two already, and that knowledge would be factored into the current odds.
356 – GG
I disagree.
The Democrats may drift but I don’t believe they will drift past 1.80 unless something drastic happens.
There is no way they’ll hit 1.90.
Just for the record, the Democrats are currently at 1.50 v 2.95.
The markets have already factored in either candidate vs McCain. If Obama wins I see moderate drifting at best.
If Hillary beats Obama, the markets may drift upwards past 1.60 to 1.70 but despite the polls, she must remain favourite against McCain.
I look forward to seeing which one of us is right.
KR # 357,
I think you’re right about Obama’s strategy, and Obama knows it, and so does Clinton. Exactly why she’ll be hanging out for that seven week gap, during which no more concrete bad news can occur. She’s like a football team that’s struggling, praying for half-time to come so it can re-group.
I think the Macca bet is great value at $2.85. The Dems as a party should win but when they do choose one, it becomes mano a mano. If Billary whinges, connives and lawyers her way in as the Dem, she will get slaughtered. And Obama will get everything thrown at him by the Repugs, with the finger on the “Fear” button and “terrorism-sympathiser” and every crap you can think of. A nation of vegetables who could vote in George W TWICE and believe in creationism aren’t too hard to panic into a bad decision.
If I’m wrong about Hillary’s early March concession and Superdelgates do not stampede to Obama & Hillary fights to the end
the Democrats have a nightmare scenaro of Edwards 26 votes in play plus his 25 Superdelegates , the Michigan/Florida votes dispute plus large Superdelegates
numbers in a mix….whilst the Repugs have their house in order
hopefully to finish the race Ohio & texas will follow the momentum to Obama
#343
On the subject of a quick kill:
1. fundraising – Hillary’s recent announcements in funds seems to be a coming from her grassroots community reacting to her 5m loan “Oh. Hillary I don’t know you had a problem”. At the same time she seems to be in struggling to hold together the financial backers of the machine who are doing plain old risk management (without too much passion).
2. momentum – on the Hillary blogs are the occasional comments from people saying “We need to setup a grassroots movement like Obama has”. In the meantime Obama is raising something like a million a day and the passion is intense. Over on the Hillary campaign there are times when you can hear pins drop – especially after moments like the Maine event. Bad news will be hitting the Hillary supporters for the next few weeks – and she’s going to loose the passion element and that’s going to play into the on-the-ground support in those so called firewall states. Thing is passion works for the underdog and in particular the underdog making good. I.e. its like a balloon – and Hillary’s balloon appears to be loosing air at an uncomfortable rate.
Anyway – we will have more meat to digest in the next 24 hours with DC, Maryland, and Virgina – and IMO – the only questions here will be “by how much?”.
Hi KR,
Don’t know if you have heard about the “Fantaills” franchise, but I’ll give you a cut of the action if you can show where I have lied (yr 341).
Dio,
Won’t just be the Republicans throwing stuff at Obama.
Team Clinton’s already been out there with “we wouldn’t say anything too bad about Obama, but those horrible GOPers would”. Those comments will become a lot more specific and pointed after March 4 – “we wouldn’t say Obama is , but the Republicans will say so”.
Cheers Asanque,
I don’t bet on anything that talks. But good luck.
#351 asanque
I would have agreed a few weeks ago but looking at info that details an executive that does not communicate with each other, arguments, one hand not knowing about the financial status, the other not knowing about the 5 million injection, stuff reshuffling, people without clear job definitions. I would be hesitant to use the term a well oiled machine to describe the Clinton campaign machine.
Davidoff by how much?”
Maryland 60/40
DC 62/38
Virginia 55/44
The 1.90 on offer for Democrats I’ll take a bet on those generous odds
I don’t think we’ll see the Democrats over 1.50 & McCain under 2.75
correction 1.70 not 1.50
gg@366
does that include Mr Ed.
364
GG
What you have to do is explain first is how you jumped to the conclusion, without any evidence except what you invented:
239 You obviosly have bought the hagiography about Che. The fact remains as to why Obama’s staff had that photo prominently displayed in his office.
About Che:
334 It is worse than that, he is alive on this blog. KR has withdrawn but by golly there are some sympathisers here.
…and then we’ll see who is bending the truth!
In other words, you never addressed the fact that you quoted some rubbish blog as gospel, then got your facts wrong about it, and THEN attacked me for things I CLEARLY did not say.
You have a very slim grip on reality, GG, or do you just always make stuff up and hope nobody notices?
Well, I do.
I’ve been off here for a bit and have only had to scan the above discussion with the disoriented comrade from Greensborogh. I have only the following to say.
1: Anyone who takes seriously anything on the blog of that corrupt grub Andrew Landeryou needs to take a big dose of reality medicine.
2: Che was a noble if flawed figure and if I really thought Obama admired him in any way I would be trumpeting his political virtues to the stratosphere (as opposed to predicting that he’ll win over Billary in the primaries.) Che is condemned for presiding over the firing squad execution os a handfulo of mafiosi and torturers. Bill Clinton presided over (among other things) the sanctions regime in Iraq that led to the deaths of tens of thousands (at least, let’s avoid the argument about whether it was 500,000 or “only” tens of thousands) of, mostly, children. So, apparently, Che is a hideous murderer and Clinton was a great guy.
Personally, I would be pleased if O
367
davidoff
Agree. The most glaring omission was not planning beyond Feb 5th, and it really looks like it’s caught them by surprise!
Obama’s crew have planned well ahead, and his performance has enabled them to implement it. Hillary’s has been shaken, then revived, then shaken again, so it’s clear which one is slipping in this race.
#368 Ron ..
I’ve double the number of champaign bottles in the fridge (its causing some degree of tension but I have it under control). I’m going to go a little bit heavier on the aggressive side and put up the following numbers (obama/clinton) …
Maryland 60/32
DC 60/35
Virginia 61/38
And these numbers are based on the fact that Obama has established himself as a totally viable can-win candidate whereas every event before Maine he was fighting the machine.
372
Robert Bollard
I think Obama’s more of a centrist RB, but I like your sentiment! LOL
(Oh, and as for that blogger and his diatribe about a poster on a wall, it was so ludicrous I thought it was meant to be satire! Clearly the Growler is easily persuaded of any inanity! LOL)
Robert Ballard,
Look cobber, as a proctolologist, I usually only deal with one arsehole at a time, but I’ll make a special stop for you. Che was a murdering scumbag who would not have had any problem cutting the throat of you, your missus and your loved ones if it had of advanced his cause.
Just like the fashionable Islamo Fascists.
“The star of the show, Mister Ed, was not just any horse. To the amazement of viewers, he was able to talk – and this got his owner, Wilbur, into all kinds of trouble! Whenever mischievious Ed used the telephone or got out of his stable you could be sure that hilarious drama would never be far away’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Ed
well Davidoff , you are even more confident that I re Virginia& may uou be right !
Glad you got your fridge under control
My problem is I keep bringing the Chapers out to celebrate but get told my call is too early and by that time my ice has melted
any spare ice my friend ?
#378
Just between you and me – if my numbers come in I’ll be halving my stock the same day.
I don’t have any doubt that the Clinton camp is in disarray at the moment, whilst life in Chateau Obama would be pretty good.
But, folks, it’s all about the delegates, and she’s still winning, and even after tomorrow’s debacle (if such it is) won’t be too far behind.
Obama needs those March 4 primaries/caucuses!
New thread open for general discussion of Australian politics.
I may clean mine right out
& join you for your 1/2 thereafter but will bring some with me
GG,
I have reservations about your problem with Obama and the Che connection. Firstly the story seems to be a beat-up, the “office” is evidently one occupied by volunteers. Have you not seen Che’s image on t-shirts worn by people who know nothing about Australian (never mind Latin American) politics? It’s just a cultural artefact like a Jimi Hendrix image, for such people.
Secondly, you have a touching faith in Landeryou’s site. It is merely a clearing house for his prejudices political and personal. Since he is an enthusiastic supporter of the currently dominant right faction in the Victorian ALP. they are happy to feed him information. Consequently he is reliable on factional disputes within the Victorian ALP, but what he posts is inevitably slanted. Branch-stacking by the left is a heinous crime, but by the right, it’s the justified action of “patriots” (one of his highly-favoured terms), for example.
Some of his personal prejudices have to be a wind-up; his support for Sophie Mirabella is too bizarre to be otherwise explained.
He also relies on being un-sueable, because of his lack of assets.
What an excellent performance tonight.
A Local Man. Ben Chifley. Written Bob Ellis etc. Performed by Tony Barry. Brilliantly portrayed. Followed by a Q and A session, when Mr Barry responded to queries from the audience.
Mr Barry expressed his sincerity, in not only his role, but his responses, especially in advocating that the (receptive) audience participate in the ‘Sorry’ Parliament, tomorrow morning.
Mr Barry clearly acts the role of Ben Chifley, as a believer in fairness, justice, hope.
And invites us, as we know, to believe in the same.
Oh thank god, Growler’s here to protect us from murdering “Islamo Fascists”!
Phew, do I feel safe now, or what?
For someone who doesn’t check his facts before shooting off his mouth, I hope he actually enquires before blasting anyone away! LOL
Just another point as to why Virgina could go to Obama beyond the projections is that people in Virginia do not need to designate a political party affiliation when registering to vote – and that means a potential influx of Republican voters to the Obama ticket. But – yes – all of the experts are telling us that Hillary is focusing on Virgina and ignoring the other states. I.e. anything I’m projecting should be viewed as highly speculative.
KR,
You untruthfully called me a liar. No evidence, just bluster again. I just hope you grow up to mean more by saying less.
#384
KR
You should know better than that. Feral cats don’t carry arms – you more likely to recognize them by the noise they make and the smell they leave behind.
davidoff,
but are there any facts there.
pls tell.
GG
You don’t like being caught do you?
“You obviosly have bought the hagiography about Che.”
…now, where did I ‘obviously’ say any such thing?
You’re a little twister, just like ESJ, make snide comments WITHOUT any evidence, and hope I won’t call you on it.
Well, I will. And you’ve done it, and you can’t retract it, it’s there in black and white, but all you want to do is hurl abuse because you cannot admit it.
Nice GG, really big of you.
You made a dumb post, I pointed it out, and you just don’t like being called on getting your facts wrong.
Small.
Yes, I can smell this one alright, has the same odour as ESJ.
Anyway, orf to bed.
US futures market is trying to stay happy about GM, (god knows why), while one big pharma is writing off a $2.3bn ‘accounting’ loss. Oh, good, it’s only numbers! LOL
I love the game, but not tonight Josephine.
KR
clarify your “snot” comments
p.k.b
davidoff
used to purloining pussy are we
KR,
Nuh,
Does not cut the mustard comrade.
Off to bed.
Is it OOOOOOOOOOH yes!
GG,
I was warned before coming to this country that Aussies love a good stoush!!
I, for one, marvel at and enjoy KR’s posts.
With an “L” plate firmly glued to my forehead, I am just green with envy that he can express his passion so eloquently and with speed at that!
Crikey Whitey,
Good to see you back.
Megan,
Welcome.
You will eventually learn how to distinguish bullshit from blather.
Coffee some time?
megan
i thought it was only grog and maybe choof that fuelled kirri
but hey if speed is it -then whatever rocks your boat
#390
KR – you need to get yourself ahead of the market trends – we have a new product coming up in the US auto industry. Bionics in the next generation and GM is leading the way.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/11/AR2008021102656.html?hpid=topnews
More Possums flushed out.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/regression_analysis_of_the_dem.php
Morning all -
it just occurred to me as I prepare to watch the Apology here that perhaps there is a synchronisty happening with the US elections. A desire for change that is way beyond party politics and economics and is represented in their case by Obama.
In other words this has become a cultural rather than political shift and that may be why Hillary can’t stop him. She is so much a part of the political paradigm.
This then means the ‘lack of experience issue’ has no bearing on his popularity and may in fact be a bonus. Hasn’t hurt Kevin any.
397
davidoff
Very witty! I like the ‘left over parts from Rumsfeld and Giuliani’ idea.
Or as one poster on a US blog said, it seems all that stuff about being ready on day one went out the window on FEB 6th.
Ta boom!
399
jen
There seems to be a resonance, and yes we can!
Speaking of the US recession, here is a story about General Motors – a US $37 Billion loss has been announced for 2007, and up to 74,000 jobs are to go.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23206259-952,00.html
This is about 1/3 of GMs total workforce. It comes on top of the loss of 30,000 jobs between 2005 and 2008. The states most affected will be mid-north such as Michigan (Detroit) and Ohio, plus a major impact across the border in Canadian plants in Ontario (Toronto is home to the Canadian manufcturing industry). Failure to gear up for hybrids and more economical car models is really starting to hurt the US economy, just as Al Gore said it would.
When blaming the media doesn’t work, just blame those pesky voters.
403
asanque
This if from a US blogger regarding those ‘unrepesentative caucuses’:
The Clinton effort to spin their caucus losses ignores the fact that many of the caucuses have been on weekends or in the evening and that there has been enormous and unprecedented participation by a wide range of voters. Maine which has an older, overwhelmingly white demographic and has two female senators went heavily for Obama this past Sunday. The efforts by some in the media to try to make race a defining issue in this campaign are falling on deaf ears. The voting public to its credit appears to be way ahead of the mainstream (New York and D. C.) media in evaluating the merits of the presidential candidates
I also didn’t hear Clinton rejecting the unrepresentative caucuses when she won the popular vote in Nevada.
Meanwhile, have you heard Obama say anything bad about the states he has lost in?
405
asanque
Oh yeah, he said he was going to ship all those Clintonista south of the border for some ‘re-education’!
When told there were millions of Latinos in California, and it would be impossible to deport them all, he said “yes we can, just ask Mike Huckabee!”
Good analysis on the race and voters
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/02/the_state_of_the_democratic_ra.html
408
asanque
Yes, interesting analysis, and you can see how hard it is in the US with so many racial blocks, who do not necessarily vote as one. Like the distinction I found elsewhere about Latinos who had been in the country a long time, or had more recently arrived, they don’t see the world in the same way.
Gotta say it’s really hard to see who’s going to win this contest, or even by what rules, considering Florida and Michigan.
Popcorn time….!
Huge turnout in Maryland and Virginia. I’m sure they are flooding out to ensure Billary stares down the “dirty tricks” campaign of that awful “black candidate” Obama.
Although, the early exit polls suggest that might not be the reason they are turning out.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/02/12/politics/p140627S54.DTL
ABC News in the US is predicting an Obama win in Virginia based on exit polls.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4279122&page=1
CNN have done it again… predicting Obama to win the VA primary based on exit polls. Looking at the exit poll data, there’s a couple of big differences to other states, such as Hillary with a lower share of the vote (albeit not by as much) to people without a college education, and while White Democrats went towards Hillary, White Independents and Republicans went strongly to Obama. There was only a 51-48 split to Hillary between White voters according to CNN’s exit poll.
Huckabee is beating McCain with 4% of the vote counted. That’s a real worry for McCain if he loses Virginia. He’ll still be the candidate, but it looks like the conservatives still hate him.
7% counted in Viriginia and Huckabee up 51-42
Does Huckabee really have a chance? I thought it was mathematically impossible – or is that becuase Romney has a decent number of delegates too and you can’t get 50% when 10% are Romney supporters on the cross-benches.
The nationwide polls are interesting…
Democratic Polls
USA Today/Gallup Poll
2/9/2008
N=1279
w/o Gore
Hillary Clinton 46%
Barack Obama 44%
Mike Gravel 1%
Unsure 8%
Other 1%
Source
USA Today/Gallup Poll
2/7/2008
N=1226
w/o Gore
Hillary Clinton 48%
Barack Obama 43%
Mike Gravel 2%
Unsure 7%
Other 1%
Source
USA Today/Gallup Poll
2/5/2008
N=1232
w/o Gore
Hillary Clinton 51%
Barack Obama 40%
Unsure 8%
Other 1%
Source
413
asanque
That Hcuk is still clinging to his ‘miracle’ huh? But you’re right, it confirms the split in the Repbulican party is not going away and McCain is going to look weaker the longer Hcuk stays.
NYTimes shows Obama well in front, and better than 60/40, a ratio that was Clinton’s at one time in this race. (Although, still on 8% counted, so it could change yet)
Hillary’s best State expectation today was Virginia
17% counted Obama 61% & Hillary 38%
a massacre
that 3/3/08 Hillary concession prediction may not be so optimistic ?
Obama lead holding as counts edge past 20%.
But McCain catching Huckabee. 47-45
The Democrats are again vastly outnumbering the Republicans but I don’t know if that is normal in Virginia.
Rates
30% counted Obama 61% & Hillary 38%
at least Hillary’s advisers must be getting doubts ?
29% counted – Obama stretching lead 62-37
Huck and McCain neck and neck at 46-46
Yes, it’s strange that there are pretty much an identical % of precincts reporting (30%), but that this equates to 225 000 Dems and 130 000 Reps – are the Republicans slow counters, or something
Obama gets 55% of the Latino vote in Virginia. As I’ve said before “Billary is dead”. How do you spin a 25% drubbing?
As someone pointed out above, this was the state she had the best hope in today. The other two might be pretty ugly (as if 61-38 isn’t)
Are there still substantial pre-polls in favour of Hillary? Might we see some more late swings even when Obama is already leading?
I think the pre-poll argument will continue.
However, Missouri would appear to have a different demographic breakdown than VA.
In brighter news for Clinton, latest polls show that she is still leading Obama by a large margin, although Obama is closing.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html
That was for Ohio
Rates
the other 2 Primarys are Maryland & DC which have approx 50% and 30% Afro American voters
the 862/38 in virginia will be worse in the other 2
….its a real massacre !
re wayaway
Democrat turnout is double the Republican turnout
both counts about 305….yes Repugs must be slow counters !
McCain takes the lead with 38% counted.
Maryland voting has been extended due to bad weather.
Ron… I find it really odd that the Dems can count twice as fast – all joking aside, that makes no sense to me…
I just don’t get the mechanics of it… even assuming the number of precincts are equal, and may account for some of the overall time taken to report, surely each precinct would finish their count more quickly counting half the number of votes??? A perhaps pointless puzzle, but a puzzle (to me) nonetheless…
Aah, there isn’t separate counting for the two parties… and the precincts report once, with results from boths sides… sorry for thinking out loud
I’ve never voted in a primary, but from what I infer they are run at the same places by (hopefully) independent operators.
As such, the precinct won’t report until both counts are finsished. Hence, the precincts are always equal but there are more Dem votes.
48% precincts in 61/38
Godbye Hillary because
Virginia may be the decisive State result because 2 of Hillary’s previous demographic voting blocs have NOW gone to Obama
Exit Polls
Women Obama 58/42
college education 62/38
no college education 62/38
Hillary had the young non Afro american non college education vote in previous Primarys
The only bloc left for her are the Latino’s
not sure of % in Virginia but they are crucial to her in Texas
Billary’s deputy campaign manager resigns. The rats leave the ship.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/02/clinton_deputy_campaign_manage.html