Been a bit busy lately, so it’s past time for a new US elections thread. Since Super Tuesday we’ve had an anticipated string of Barack Obama victories from caucuses in Nebraska, Washington and Maine and a primary in Louisiana, along with a narrow win for John McCain in Washington and probably meaningless victories for Mike Huckabee in Kansas and Louisiana. Tomorrow US time we have both parties holding primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
US primaries open thread
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More evidence that Hilary is in massive trouble, she only has a lead of 7-16 points in Texas and about 16-20 in Ohio. Oh dear!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
On the other Thread
209
Edward StJohn Says:
February 16th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Jen,
As I recall you confirmed you were the No2 Senate Candidate for the Greens last year to Adam and you promised at the time to post a photo.
I found the photo on an archived version of the Greens site, you said yesterday comments to the effect that I should show my photo hence I said give me an email address and I would do so.
You seemed to doubt that I had seen the photo in your comments so I described it in general terms.
If you have taken any offense I sincerely apologise.
So there!
.
210
Ron Says:
February 16th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
ESC ” So there! ”
the ‘claytons’ apology……….where is the heart in it
901 – if you look at 740 and 750, you’ll see that Davidoff took the worst case scenario where Obama loses Texas by 14 and Ohio by 20, and still was handily ahead.
Apologies if my original post offended, William. Was merely trying to have a bit of fun with Rain’s post @ 879 on how the Obama supporters see the Clinton campaign.
Please allow me to repost the link to the original article in more sanitised fashion. This article describes how Mrs Clinton has fallen out if favour with America’s conservative media outlets.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8549.html
Here is a second article which provides a bit more analysis on the mistakes which the Clinton camp has made with their media strategy.
http://nymag.com/news/politics/powergrid/44211/
TW, I didn’t realise that the comment had “context” when I deleted it.
’twas all in good fun. I take your point, watch the rough housing.
I agree with Ron
I am the opposite. Currently, I am supporting Obama to win the Democratic nomination. I think there is something special in his campaign, and that the US can do a lot worse. But more than that, I am supporting him because I think HRC represents a lot of what is wrong with American politics. I think her getting booted from the race turns a page in American history.
Having said that, I don’t know yet who I prefer between Obama and McCain. I am naturally a right-leaning supporter, Obama is most certainly not. I am disappointed that the GOP did not select a younger candidate, because I feel this is a time for the new generation to come through, and that will certainly affect my ultimate preference, but for that one needs to watch both candidates when they are under pressure. Which is what a lot of people are waiting for.
The months ahead will tell. But an Obama-McCain match up will mean that, by and large, the US is in new and fresh hands as of next year. And that is a victory in itself.
RCP has averaged it at 50.3-40 – so a 10 point lead to Clinton. Three weeks out that is pretty impressive.
Two interesting points to note here. First, the more recent polls will have ‘factored in’ the ‘Obama-mania’ if you like, ie all the positive press coverage, eight primary winning streak etc etc. The next few weeks might not be as rosy for him, so while he will probably cut into the lead, he might not do it as quick.
Second is that there are still 10% or so of undecided voters. Don’t know exact statistics, but unless circumstances change that will (based on previous polls) break Obama’s way. At a guess maybe 6-4. Take that into consideration and it’s 8 points.
I think either way the result will now be within five points either way, so it will be a delegate tie (give or take). But Obama really needs to win a state for the sake of the media coverage, and Ohio looks out of reach (17 point gap). Texas will be the big focus.
If Clinton sweeps the day, even if only by a few percent in each race, it will give her enough momentum to keep going, and after that day time starts to become the enemy of the Democratic Party, and especially Obama.
Max , the Polls vs actual results seem to under weight both the ‘black’ vote generally & young ‘white’ average paid workers
Also every Primary except NY has shown ‘narrowing’ for Obama in the last week.
There was an article some time ago (which I’ve don’t now have the link for)which analyied both on ground strategies & Obama seemed better organized & certianly had more volunteers , which helps gain votes at the serious end of each individual Primary
Here’s Hussein, now that didn’t take long did it?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=102k_Hqgy0E
codger , very powerful…do you think it will persuade its intended ‘centre’ voter ?
Extremely interesting comments from Nancy Pelosi in this link:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/sfgate/detail?blogid=14&entry_id=24286
She is basically saying:
a) The winner on pledged delegates should get it; and
b) The Florida and Michigan delegates should not be seated if they decide the result
c) Hopes it is decided before the conference
It would seem that if BHO does not back down – the Dems will be split down the middle by the Convention as it is likely Hilary will continue to carry the big states eg NJ,OH,TX. Ideal territory for McCain to win in. Amazing
Personally I think Pelosi or someone of stature in the Democrats should sit down with both campaigns after NJ ( when they will be about level) and say agree to decide it on who wins rescheduled primaries in Michigan and Florida in June.
I personally think it is the only course of action that wont split the Democrats. If BHO cant win OH,TX and NJ he never will. Secondly winning by winning states like Idaho, Kansas,Utah and Nebraska that havent voted Democrat since 1964 or at all suggests that BHO is very much going to be a black McGovern for the Democrats – ie a total disaster.
As I said some months before with BHO its more like the audacity of my bottom.
Sorry second para should read if he cant win OH,TX and NJ now he never will win
ESJ – you may want to check the DNC rulebook
ESJ-I still don’t think your heart is really in that argument. The polls have been miles off in almost every primary. The End is Nigh… at least for Billy Graham who’s just had brain surgery.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jrYXdMC8Wx3f5RWjqFfDwsxF4-TAD8UPOJCG1
Sadly they just dont produce Senators like Fritz Hollings anymore (former South Carolina Democrat) only 86 years young Diogenes, here are some quotes from Wikipedia:
On stubbornness:
“There’s no education in the second kick of a mule.”
To opponents of government regulation:
“Letting y’all regulate yourselves is like delivering lettuce by way of a rabbit.”
On his marriage:
“People always wonder how Peatsy and I stay together, with so many divorces around us. And a friend of ours used to say, ‘It’s simple. They have a lot in common. They’re both in love with the same fella.’ ”
Responding to a Republican challenger who dared him to take a drug test:
“I’ll take a drug test if you take an I.Q. test.”
While debating John Glenn, the former astronaut:
“But what have you done in this world.”
On President Bush’s effort to distance himself from the Enron scandal:
“I did not have political relations with that man, Ken Lay.”
On former Senator Phil Gramm’s habit of hogging the spotlight:
“If you want a lesson in political anonymity, sponsor a bill with Phil Gramm.”
On international trade:
“We hear those in the national Congress running around and saying, ‘Free trade, free trade, I am for free trade,’ when they know free trade is like dry water. There is no such thing.”
Ron @ 911 (oh the irony),
just part of the game…but this is a double edged & powerful sword. It can swing both ways. If he gets the nomination I would expect him to not only pick this up but run very effectively with it.
In the meantime its business as usual for the ‘VOTE HILARY F*CK N*GGER MUZZIES’ set below the video.
ESJ- Have you read Niall Ferguson’s books? I just finished “Colossus-The Rise and Fall of the American Empire”, which is poorly named as he explicitly says the Yankee Empire hasn’t fallen yet. In fact, he encourages the Americans to be more like the British Empire (described in his other book Empire) as he thinks a liberal empire is a good thing for the world and the country and provides a persuasive argument for the US embracing imperialism.
Needless to say, the book has upset both the liberals (for encouraging the US not to leave Iraq and to successfully control it a la Japan and West Germany post WWII) and the conservatives (for exposing the US as an imperialist power which doesn’t have the know-how to do it successfully, like the Brits). I love books that upset both sides, being contrarian in nature.
Since Friday midday (our time), some movement in the superdelegate count:
Obama: +6
Clinton: +1
Dear Doc Contrarian
Until the bums on seats thing picks up should we run a ‘book’ following up on your ESJ death prognosis & attendant counting, say on the next state, school, mall, college etc? Donation a Thon of course. Mr Bowe & Ron et al permitting. #s even, proceeds to this outrageous site. Of course.
#887
Rain
Some of the stuff you mentioned has already been completely debunked. On the vast majority of stuff is a case of scraping up stuff without context. If you can come up with some concrete material (with references) it would be a lot more compelling. In the meantime take a look at the following youtube video – it addresses some of the topics you raised (for regular pollbludgers this was already posted back a week and a bit ago).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdDzvmY1XPo
922 Davidoff -Rain has again gone missing when asked about the reason for her/his relentless full throttle Clintonianism and stream of old debunked mud directed at Obama.
There has yet to be any sensible arguments as to why Clinton is better.
What time is it over there Rain?
Of course Diogenes, but you may have missed his latest, War of the Worlds.
Good read but agreed he is an empire apologist.
codger- I gather the most recent one was due to a spurning on Valentine’s Day. There’s no better solution to unrequited love than a massacre in the US.
Diogenes@ 925 – It’s the only answer really, when there is a blow to one’s self-esteem. Over-valuing oneself seems to be encouraged in the US, and these school/university blowouts often seem to result at least in part from an inability to cope with a perceived ‘attack’ on the all important self. That, and the gun culture element, of course.
912 – Nancy Peloisi has always struck me as a sensible Democrat, and her suggestions there seem to be the best common sense approach.
http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/stories/2008/02/15/lewis_0215.html
NYT Incorrect
Lewis hasn’t switched to Obama as yet
Diogenes – how does it feel to be outflanked to the left by ESJ (#924)? Ferguson is indeed (imho) an Empire apologist. And delight in contrarian opinions is one thing – but trying to rehabilitate that vile, murderous era in British history is something altogether different. Of course as a descendant of Irish convicts and Tasmanian Aborigines I’m not likely to be moved by paeans to the “liberal empire”. BTW, the last time a fan of the British Empire gave advice to the US re this empire malarky was Kipling when the Americans were agonising over whether to annex the Philippines in 1898. He did in the form of that lovely racist poem “The White Man’s Burden”. The yanks followed his advice, betrayed their “ally” Aguinaldo and killed about 1 million Filipinos (out of a then population of 5 million) in the process.
McCain would have said of course that they didn’t kill enough of them.
RB- The “Colossus” book mentions Kipling’s poem quite a few times. It also mentions the Phillipines as being yet another US failure. I don’t seem to recall the 1M dead though…
And I deny being outflanked by ESJ although the year is young. I’m up 1-nil in the poll that counts! I’ll be happy to give him a point for free if Billary gets up, and I’m sure he will give me a point if Bami wins one of Billary’s big three great white hopes.
There was talk of Iraq on this blog earlier today, and tonight I’ve just read this long and personal piece by Patrick Cockburn, which asks if the US ’surge’ is working? Working for whom? Washington or the Iraqis? It sure as hell does not sound like the latter:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/is-the-us-really-bringing-stability-to-baghdad-782425.html
outflanked to the left by ESJ , that would leave one in the Joh Pauline zone
Ferguson ? not read is book…is he the guy arguing the US is ‘overstretched in manpower & resoucres which caused Rome’s demise & is recommending ‘consolidation’ to maintain the Empire ?
Do you read Ron? How novel for you!
well you clearly can read
you read Howard’s manifesto and bought the whole junk package Pompous
Ron-ESJ has already said he’d vote Democrat ahead of Macca. I’d vote for Macca ahead of Clinton so I’m right of ESJ if you believe in the pure political spectrum.
The Ferguson book says the US is floundering in its international aims because:
1. It’s in hock to China and Japan to the tune of 25% of its GDP for 1 year. Only two developed countries have ever been in foreign debt worse (AUSTRALIA under Keating at 60% GDP and NZ at 90% at the same time)
2. Lack of manpower. They don’t really like fighting in wars and want to come home ASAP. He thinks there are untapped sources in prison and in illegal immigrants, who could get citizenship after a stint in the army!!
3. Attention deficit. Lack of political will to stick it out in adverse situations like Iraq because of that pesky democracy thing which spoils long-term imperial plans.
He wants them to fix these errors and expand.
Evening Diogenes
Does he(ferguson) go into the geopolitical scene regards issues i raised @880
what barrow is he pushing
Diogenes @ 925, well yes touche, but I guess I’m trying to crawl up to the ‘grassy knoll’…but not quite game enough since Jen warned me off…
But serial shopper @ 933 the question is surely what do you understand…& would have us believe. Reading is for dummies. The selective wasteland between knowledge & propoganda.
‘being contrarian in nature’ I guess has the element of surprise.
so I’m right of ESJ , that would be difficult philosophically
Perhaps its the whole HRC package that has swayed your preference rather than the political philosophy of the Repugs
if in fact you prefer Obama over Macca
Ron if your contrarian in nature to be fair can you tell us which side or sides of your nature is dominant at the exact time when you post?
gusface
He did have some interesting things to say about those. I’ll give a quick precis:
China-Is now so intertwined with the US economically that they are interdependent. Would both go down together as the US is heavily in debt to Chinese banks, but the Chinese banks are pretty dodgy if their US debts are defaulted that they can’t afford to call them in. He calls China an empire (along with the EU). Will be a bigger economy than the US by 2040 if it stays on track.
India-The main example he gave of a colonised country which failed economically under the Brits, which in effect stuffed the main thrust of his argument IMHO. He doesn’t have much time for them as an up and coming power.
Pakistan-doesn’t rate a mention
Turkey- Very interesting. Thinks they are on the right track in maintaining a middle ground between East and West. Thriving as an economy and one of only two democracies in the ME (with Israel). Says they should be admitted to the EU as they are performing better economically than several other members. This would set an example for other ME countries to “behave better” and would probably achieve more for stabilising the ME than even a highly improbable stable Iraq.
Russia-Too many problems managing its own failed empire to really play much of a role except as a part of the European handbrake stifling US intentions
Gusface #936 His barrow is that he is a “revisionist” historian who has made his name as a controversialist writing readable narrative histories of the British Empire which argue that it was, on balance, a good thing. Hence he wants the Americans to do this Empire thing in a nice way, because he feels he has some expertise in what nice Empires are like. That doesn’t mean of course that he is devoid of insights into what they are doing wrong, merely that, as evidenced by point 3 in Diogenes post above, he wants them to keep trying to remake Iraq, regardless (to quote Kipling) of what the “fluttered folk and wild” in Iraq want.
The point is that there is no “nice” way to do Empire.
Diogenes: the figure of 1 million is the upper range of estimates for Filipino deaths (shades of Lancet versus IBC etc!). The lower estimates are still in 7 figures. The army that the US sent was fresh off exterminating the plains Indians, this was the height of Jim Crow and they saw subduing a brown race as legitimising mass murder. “A Peoples History of the USA” by Howard Zinn covers it well, including some interesting defections to the Filipino side by African-American troops.
Ron-100% prefer Obama to Macca. I would have voted for Billary ahead of any Repug except Macca. The horrors of Macca’s hawkish nature are considerable but Billary epitomises everything I hate about politicians as people, and in the end I vote for the person more than their policies.
‘being contrarian in nature’ was a quote of Diogenes describing himself ! #919
it would help if you could read the other blogs before putting you foot in it again
RB- I thought his argument about the benefits of empires had some merit and could see that there could not be a democratic empire that lasts. I thought the main weakness of his argument was that there NEEDS to be an empire as unipolarity is more stable and beneficial to the “world order” than multipolarity (or apolarity).
Well Ron I could have sworn it was a reference to yourself. Nervmind.
If you want the antidote to Niall try Overthrow by Stephen Kinzer or Blowback by Chalmers Johnson.
If Emires were good things they could be democratic. In any case, what is the point of the current US Empire if not to “spread democracy”. Take away that fig leaf and you are left with the unpleasant reality that it is all about theft.
Niall makes sense in my view as he exposes the inherent contradiction in the Rumsfeld-lite approach to conquest.
I liked his book on the British Empire too. Might not have agreed with everything he said but a lot of it is food for thought nonetheless.
That’s it.
Mr Bowe, time for the ‘book’, ring Possum, cue google maps & lets rip; my first pick: the school repository, Paris, Texas. Lone male; #s 7; police shoot 3 of their own; total 10. $20.
& Diogenes is for the pillars of wisdom norty corner before the next post.
I see that last night various ppls were asking was I in hiding, given my earlier confident predictions that Clinton would clean up on Super Tuesday. No, I haven’t been hiding, I’ve been busy in the RW – hard to believe but true.
Anyway clearly I was wrong, and in the spirit of the times let me say I am very, very sorry. Mainly I’m sorry for the ppl of the US, because if things go on the way they are and the Dems actually nominate Obama, the US will probably be stuck with another Republican president – albeit a somewhat less mad and incompetent one than Bush.
I guess I over-estimated the capacity for judgement of Democrat voters. (It’s hard enough trying to guess what Australian voters will do, let alone these damn foreigners.) I thought they would do the sensible thing and go for the candidate with the best credentials to win. Instead they have gone for the fantasyland candidate, who will (in my opinion) lose the general election.
Of course, having been wrong once, I ought to be careful making further predictions, but that’s my view and I’m sticking to it.
Why are Dems doing such a lemming act in choosing the most left-wing and least experienced candidate they can find, one who will be eaten alive by the Repubs and their media attack-dogs come November? It’s fairly easy. The liberal media have built Obama up as super-candidate, which has given him most of the liberal-youth-upperclass vote. That’s was enough to give him critical momentum in Iowa. Then the black vote kicked in in South Carolina. These two voter bases enabled him to claim a draw on Super Tuesday, and to go on to his victories since.
Meanwhile, the white and Latino working class, who actually decide most US elections (they are the “Howard battlers” of the US) have made it quite clear they want Clinton, and that a lot of them won’t vote for Obama in November – not (in most cases anyway) because he is black but because he is an ultra-liberal. The elite commentariat (people like you lot) have chosen to ignore them. It’s as if Labor had decided not to elect Rudd leader in 2006, but instead chose Geoff Clark.
Thus the two parties have done the opposite of what we all expected in January. The Repubs have said “stuff ideological purity,” and gone for their most electable candidate. It seems they actually want to win the election after all. A few hardcore rightists won’t vote for McCain, but most of them will. The Dems, on the other hand, have rejected their most electable candidate and gone for Obama – the love-child of George McGovern and Angela Davis. The Repubs just cannot believe their luck.
Maybe I am being overly pessimistic. Maybe Clinton can win big in OH, TX and PA and keep the super-delegates in line and still win, but as has been noted the momentum seems to be against her. Maybe there will be a monster recession and Obama will win despite being the most left-wing member of the Senate and totally without any credentials to be president apart from being able to fire up crowds of college kids with empty feelgood rhetoric. Maybe McCain’s nice-guy image (which is partly though not wholly an act) will come unstuck. Maybe his pacemaker will explode.
But alas I fear not.
do any Empires last forever and do they benefit the ‘conquered’ ?
Diogenes , for a fleeting moment of your preference for Macca , thoughts abounded you may have been enticed by vices into the web of the ‘dark side’
but your endorsement of Obama permanently disqualifies you from ever being
admitted into the clutches of the ‘right’ …such temptations
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