Lateline has reported that tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 57-43 on two-party preferred. However, the big news from the survey comes from the preferred prime minister ratings: Rudd 70 per cent, Nelson 9 per cent.
UPDATE: The Australian’s graphic here. Note the question on the stolen generations apology, which puts overall support at 64 per cent. It would be interesting to see a state-by-state breakdown, because Westpoll’s survey of WA voters (published in The West Australian on February 11) showed 44 per cent in favour against 46 per cent opposed. Elsewhere in The Australian, that shameless Labor booster Dennis Shanahan reports that Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating has “overtaken the previous highs of Mr Hawke, on 60 per cent, and Mr Howard, on 67 per cent” – but with respect to Hawke, it must be remembered that the peak of his popularity was in 1983 and 1984, and that Newspoll did not commence operations until 1985.
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No 451
It happens all the bloody time in the market now. Trying to emotionally enhance your argument by adding the worries of mortgages and school fees just doesn’t wash.
If a skilled person has become replaced with a machine or cheaper labour, then the skilled person has to value-add in order to be employed elsewhere. Often, employers are willing to invest in training and education if the worker demonstrates real ability, loyalty and core competency.
Not answered. The means? There is no employer, in the situation of the unemployed. And the woman believes her spouse ‘demonstrates real ability, loyalty and core competency’.
‘Often, employers are willing to invest in training and education if the worker demonstrates real ability, loyalty and core competency.’
Quite often thay are not – they are just as happy to shaft employees. If an environment is created where workers can be shafted, employers will. You’re being naive if you think otherwise.
Scorpio
Abandoning AWA’s now is a better political position for the Coalition long term than continuing to support AWA’s
The decision relects everything I dislike about the Coalition and everything I grudging acknowledge. T
The decision to abandon a FUNDAMENTAL philisophical political belief (for the moment) and not for the first time have they done so demonstrates the complete lack of their Party’s principles.The ALP does not so glibly abandon fundamental philisophical political beliefs particularly in social justice & equity
On the other hand , the Liberal’s have over time have been more successful “politically’ in winning elections than the ALP because they are willing to abandon philosophical beliefs in the persuit of votes to win Elections.
This is not to say the ALP is or has been ‘pure’ but simply the Liberals priority has always been to win elections.
Deliberately naive, if not worse, in the case of GP.
Hence the downfall of the former Government.
And their unlikely resurrection, should GP be among their advisers.
No 456
It is not deliberately naive if you make access to education widespread and easy for all market participants.
At the end of the day, you’ve got to make the case to the employer not the other way around. You do that by demonstrating experience and skill.
I don’t wish to be unkind, but you still have not answered my question.
On that note, I am going to bed.
No 455
I think you’re being a little disingenuous Ron. Rudd abandoned most of the “true believer” leftist ideology once espoused by the ALP in the past.
He essentially agreed with Howard on everything except Climate Change, the Apology and WorkChoices.
At the end of the day, whilst the battle of ideas in politics is important, someone has to win those battles. Pure principle and ideology do not win elections.
This may do. GP. Excerpt. Not that I agree with the heading. Conclusion is excellent. I have included the link, if it does not work, the article is in The Age.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/menzies-way-is-the-only-true-path-to-victory/2008/02/17/1203190649298.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
‘Menzies’ way is the only true path to victory. Robert Dean February 18, 2008
Overcoming the distance barriers to achieving this goal takes ingenuity, effort and inventiveness — a central Liberal attribute.
Saying sorry to help heal a wound of a disadvantaged group is heeding Menzies’ words: “We shall demand (a government) gives to (the needy) all the sustenance they need and support it can …”
Similarly, accepting that WorkChoices could result in unfairness to the weak is, as Menzies put it, “… preventing labour turning into a commodity”.
Why the politically mean-spirited choose politics or why proponents of the law of the jungle join Menzies’ Liberal Party is a mystery.
They will continue to marginalise us’.
Dr Robert Dean is a barrister and mediator of the Victorian Bar. He is a past Liberal parliamentary secretary, shadow attorney-general, shadow treasurer and Opposition Aboriginal affairs spokesman in the Victorian Parliament.
The Queensland Electoral Commission has all candidates standing for local Government election on its website.
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/local/lg2008/groupIndex.html
Although I would be the first to caution the Government against complacency, I do not see the Libs being competitive in 2010.
Those who argue that they’re working their way through a few glitches, that they have to sort out their policies, that their leadership team needs time to bed down and that the government will never have it so good again, are ignoring the lessons we should have learnt (and the Libs should have, too) from recent experiences in State Government.
That is, that Liberals across the nation seem to be talentless, directionless and unelectable.
In those circumstances, it would appear that people in voter land are willing to put up with even Iemma rather than vote for them.
I cannot see any indications that the Liberals on a Federal level are any different in quality to their state counterparts, whereas I would argue (using objective evidence such as polls, which are the only oe we really have) that the present Federal Government is far outperforming most other governments.
Nelson does not have the character needed to save this mob, but as I’ve said before, that’s really irrelevant. Their best chance of being reelected is to purge the party of anyone who had Ministerial authority and replace them with bright (emphasis) young things, giving byt the experience they will need to take government.
Even this scenario means at least two terms in the wilderness, but any other I would argue means even longer.
PS however, judging by the calibre of the Young Liberal mob, I question whether there are byts out there.
Scorpio @ 445,
Agree, they would have been much better to do this before Christmas.
However, by late 2010 I’m not sure that the two month delay will matter too much.
The argument about which party has held steadfastly to core principles and which has pragmatically ducked and weaved for electoral advantage is missing the point. Over the last few decades politics in Australia has moved away from the ideological extremes and into the centre. Labor deregulated the banks and reformed IR with enterprise bargaining etc, it was clearly ditching the old left extremes.
What has happened recently to the LNP’s is that they drifted back out to the fringes once they had control of the Senate and thought they could get away with it. Howard, being yesterday’s man in more ways than one, was still fighting the old ideological battle of capital versus labour, and had failed to realise that the modern era has been more about a partnership rather than a winner take all contest. By giving such extreme power to one side, Howard not only turned back the ideological clock, but showed just how archaic his mindset was, and the voters reacted accordingly by despatching him to political oblivion.
Now his progeny are having a hard time leaving the tardy Tardis of Howard’s partisan time travelling and joining the rest of Australia, some desperate to return to it, and others desperate to jump off.
Until this question is resolved, the LNP is in a state of being between realities, neither here, nor there, and we can all sit back and enjoy the show, as they fight over the controls.
Bring on the Republic, and the Australia they think they are trying to return to will no longer exist, and they’ll be stuck in the inter-temporal vortex for eternity, trying to re-materialise at the coronation of QEII.
Pass the popcorn…I’m enjoying this bit…
The core principles of the “true believer” from Labor’s inception the 1890’s to Curtin’s “light on the hill” to Rudd have never changed. All Labor has done over the 100 years is to change the material not the clothes.
Even many otherwise strong ALP supporters buy the Conservative & Media’s revisionist view of political history that the battle ground was all about left wing socialism and because Labor has repudiated socialism its basic ideology has changed.
Keating’s 1992 ‘Redfern’ speech gives a clue but his 1993 victory speech “this is a victory for “the true believers” was NOT hubris or a throw away line but a message the core principles have never changed.
As for the Conservatives , their basic ideology has not changed either. Fraser would have introduced w/c had he the ticker. Howard had the ticker to do so because w/c is consistent with Liberal ideology and Nelson & co. for the moment have simply put it in the draw for later use
The Age’s Tony Wright has just recounted on ABC radio how in the early months of the Hawke government Bob would often return to his office after QT in utter despair at how badly Keating had performed.
We all know how that turned out for the then opposition.
I know there are some very sick male lefties at this site but WTF people!! I think some of you have some explaining to do! Ralph magazine reports.
Gillard voted second sexiest woman in Australia (after the gorgeous Jennifer Hawkins)
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23243859-5006301,00.html
Diogenes, I agree, Gillard is not a looker!
468 John of Melbourne – I agree but she is PM material.
Diogenes (467) …power is the ultimate aphrodisiac.
Generic Person Says: @ 450
February 20th, 2008 at 2:31 am
{So, with that in mind, it is unsurprising that the party then sought to minimise the damage by revealing the backflip on the same day as the 9% poll result. Efficient face-saving.}
Yeah GP. Very efficient face-saving. And very effective too.
Multiple articles in every media outlet outlining their divisiveness and incompetence which will be given prominence within the Parliament by Labor leading to further embarrassment by follow-up coverage in the media is definitely “efficient face saving” LOL
scorpio
someone said awhile back that worstchoices would be the gift that keeps on giving.
GP
actually i agree but the “look” will cause some ongoing angst until the coalition can define what it really stands for.
On the contrary , the Liberals have made an astute political decision to ditch the ‘w/c baggage’. Expediency of philosophy over winning votes has been a prime reason for the Liberal’s superior election record over Labor.
w/c now its in the cupboard awaiting the next Lib leader with the ticker & Senate numbers to bring out of the dark
“I know there are some very sick male lefties at this site”
This is presented by Diogenes without qualification , polling or trend lines and is typical of anti Ralph Magazine supporters. “Please explain”
Ron,
William needs to start a new thread to discuss this interesting result.
MF @ 466,
An interesting memory, but I sense Swan’s trajectory is going to be somewhat different … However we’ll see.
The Liberals ought to still support individual agreements with serious protections for workers, that is the perfect middle ground position to take as the Tory IR policy for 2010. I dont see how the Tories can renege on unfair dismissal that ought to be retain as Tory policy for 2010.
Double or nothing Swan has a shocker today?
(after a long retirement)
Hi William,
Any chance of a thread on the latest NSW poll?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/iemma-is-failing-says-new-poll/2008/02/16/1202760661169.html
Glen,
If I was in charge of fund-raising for the Liberal Party (jokes about the impossibility of the task aside) I’d be praying that Labor tightens the unfair dismissal laws.
Just about the only thing Labor might do that would energise the Liberals’ (previous) core supporter base: small business.
Zoom (462)
Your post raises some interesting matters. There is superficial attraction to your argument that Federal politics is likely to follow a course in the short to medium term similar to what has occurred in State and Territory politics since the advent of the new century (that is, a glorious march to power and the circumstance of being able to stay there, for one side of politics, and abject desolation and irrelevancy, for the other side). Non-Labor appears to have a lot of difficulty attracting talented people into its parliamentary ranks at a state level and particularly when they are in power in Canberra. Further, most of the State and Territory ALP regimes came to power when non-Labor was in power in the Commonwealth and certainly all of them have been aided (to varying extents) in their re-elections by having the Howard government in power in Canberra. While I do not expect the changed circumstances in Canberra will have immediate effect around the country, I predict, and please note this is an example only, that by 2011 when the NSW Government seeks a fifth term, its opposition will ’seem’ a little less ‘talentless, directionless and unelectable’. Other than John Watkins, it is not immediately apparent who has any ability and/or talent in the present NSW Government (Carr, Knowles and Debus are all gone), whereas the O’Farrell led opposition do have some people with ability and who show promise of acquitting themselves well in government if allowed that opportunity (and yes, they are relatively young) in Rob Stokes, Mike Baird, Jonathan O’Dea and Gladys Berejeklian.
Whether we like it or not, elections in Australian politics are contests between Labor and non-Labor. This is why so much attention is given to the 2PP vote even in optional preferential voting contests. Inevitably, the cycle turns. It is quite fanciful, with respect, to expect one side will have a perpetual monopoly on talented people worthy of election to government.
I think it is reasonable to expect that non-Labor will be competitive at a Federal level within 2 terms of opposition. Historically, non-Labor has always regarded attaining power at the Commonwealth level of government as an imperative. Obviously getting able leadership is an important consideration for them and this will take time. However, as we all know, or should know, perceptions about issues and people in politics change (sometimes sooner they we might like). While it is certainly clear that the favourable perceptions are all going Labor’s way at the moment that will not prevail indefinitely, and nor should those who have a centrist persuasion want them to.
oakeshott country
Hi! Welcome back.
I was wondering where you got to.
Was missing your entertaining posts.
Cheers, Scorpio
OC, I was going to put up a post on the poll the other day, but they have exasperatingly failed to give us results on voting intention. I will indeed start opening threads on all state polls from now on, which I’ve only previously done during election campaigns.
Glen Says: @ 477
{The Liberals ought to still support individual agreements with serious protections for workers, that is the perfect middle ground position to take as the Tory IR policy for 2010. }
Sounds like a good idea to me too.
Here is a bit of reading on the subject for you.
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/a_brief_history_of_workchoices/
And what Julia Gillard thinks of the wonderful benefits workers have received so far under AWA’s.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/most-awas-stripped-penalties-holiday-pay/2008/02/19/1203190824137.html
David Charles
I asked a certain State Minister (now Premier) that very question a few years ago – was Federal Labor’s problem that all the brilliant, career orientated people were heading for State Government?
His answer was (modestly) that it was simply a brilliant time, economically, to be the incumbent.
So I agree with you to a large extent.
However, I have used Labor’s collapse after 1996 Federally and earlier in the States in earlier posts to point out what has to happen before a modern Party can become competitive again – it must dump all its past representatives (i.e. the public face of the government) and replace them with new talent. The quicker they do this, the better.
So I’m not being partisan here, or condemning the Libs to perpetual – or even short term – oblivion, but trying to point out some political realities.
Yes, cycles change – but we have seen countless elections where the cycle has changed, the incumbent is on the nose and STILL the Opposition is unelectable (and we’ve seen this on both sides of politics), so a party can’t just sit around waiting for this to happen.
Governments are like football Coachs ,
fullfiling their time waiting to be sacked……inevitably
In QT the rainmaker asked swan about state govt debt levels – swan’s answer was more than adequate and, following this blogs advice, brief
Mayoferal,
Keating was always better than Wayne Swan will ever be.
Another question for swan this time from the blond from the west re possible wages breakout – again answered sufficiently (and briefly). He’s even facing them at times
I’m enjoying the Liberals getting roasted in parliament on sky.
489, otiose
Practice may yet make perfect
joe joe joe
wherefore art thou avuncular one
shoe.other.foot
Rudd in full flight (he keeps getting better)
bronny expelled
game on
The bee-hived fishwife (B Bishop) out for an hour
Glen and Generic Person the article put up by Crikey Whitey
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/menzies-way-is-the-only-true-path-to-victory/2008/02/17/1203190649298.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
ia very good read, it would be nice if you both go and read it and think about what he is saying.
Redlands Council Mayor withdraws from contest.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/seccombe-pulls-out-of-redlands-mayoral-race/2008/02/20/1203467143794.html
Keep up Chuck, I read that article a couple days ago and posted a link to it in the last thread.
well the Liberals would take ‘advice’ from Robert Dean wouldn’t they , given during a State election campaign & being the shadow treasurer HE had to resign
and who does he quote…yep menzies in a 1942 speech here was Bob philosophising about “the forgotton People” WHILST HE FORGOT we were then in a deady war to save our skins lead by John Curtin……….such irony
Ron @ 465.
The “light on the hill” is Chifley’s, not Curtin’s. The relevant part of that famous speech is worth repeating here:
“I try to think of the Labour movement, not as putting an extra sixpence into somebody’s pocket, or making somebody Prime Minister or Premier, but as a movement bringing something better to the people, better standards of living, greater happiness to the mass of the people. We have a great objective – the light on the hill – which we aim to reach by working the betterment of mankind not only here but anywhere we may give a helping hand. If it were not for that, the Labour movement would not be worth fighting for.
If the movement can make someone more comfortable, give to some father or mother a greater feeling of security for their children, a feeling that if a depression comes there will be work, that the government is striving its hardest to do its best, then the Labour movement will be completely justified.”
- JB. Chifley in speech to the NSW Labor Party Conference, 12 June 1949.
Noticed two things in particular whilst watching QT today.
(1) The new Speaker is a breath of fresh air and seems determined to have the chamber operate in a level of decorum and responsibility which the people of this country have been screaming out for for many years.
(2) When the camera zoomed up on Fran Bailey, I thought I was having some sort of epileptic episode.
A blinding flash of shocking pink flashed across my eyes and I had to grab tightly onto the arms of my chair to prevent me from cascading onto the floor.
What a sight to cause sore eyes. I wonder how we will get on if she is unsuccessful in Labor’s challenge against her election.
She sure does add some colour and then some, to the Parliament.
thx Ferny
I can not even claim I did not know….perhaps the champers celebrations of another massive Obama win today will suffice in ‘defence’
believe the core principles of the speech are still the basic philosophy
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