Lateline has reported that tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 57-43 on two-party preferred. However, the big news from the survey comes from the preferred prime minister ratings: Rudd 70 per cent, Nelson 9 per cent.
UPDATE: The Australian’s graphic here. Note the question on the stolen generations apology, which puts overall support at 64 per cent. It would be interesting to see a state-by-state breakdown, because Westpoll’s survey of WA voters (published in The West Australian on February 11) showed 44 per cent in favour against 46 per cent opposed. Elsewhere in The Australian, that shameless Labor booster Dennis Shanahan reports that Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating has “overtaken the previous highs of Mr Hawke, on 60 per cent, and Mr Howard, on 67 per cent” – but with respect to Hawke, it must be remembered that the peak of his popularity was in 1983 and 1984, and that Newspoll did not commence operations until 1985.
627 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 7 8 [9] 10 11 … 13 » Show All
I would have thought the most important thing for a new gov’t to do is to impress threir stamp, “this is what we are about and how it is to be achieved” type of stuff. As an addendum to Possum’s latest treatise, I would expect the Rudd juggernaut will proceed. Forget Swann’s very forgetable QT performances. It’s unimportant. I’m an unapologetic old woman who struggles with trying to get enough young people do something useful with their lives. For anyone going to the summit in April, see if anyone has any ideas that amount to a hill of beans in relation to the most marginalised in our society.
I think if she stops using arrogance and hypocrite to describe others she disagrees with, she might become a real contributor to the discussion.
Greeensborough, I’ve clearly missed something apropos of you post at 403. What on earth happened? Who is she?
Hows this for form. Andrew actually paid to see, read and hear all that publicity over the Haneef Affair. Methinks a hair shirt under the cassock.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/andrews-ran-up-200000-bill-on-media-monitoring/2008/02/19/1203190812404.html
Harry,
Just testing a few perceptions that either or both GP and ESJ are male.
406,
…or the same person?
oh Megan , tell me it can not be !
Kirribilli Removals
You certainly have a way with words KR.
Very well put.
And the Battle For Wentworth continues – in Senate Estimates.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,23244128-5005361,00.html
Scorpio
thats because he has time on his hands since he moved John & Janet , but that may change with his new superhornet removalist fleet having potential business
The problem the LNP now has is a severe lack of talent not to mention credibility. Rudd has almost out performed Howard’s 11 years in the space of a few months.
Nelson, Turnbull and Bishop whilst, the LNP faithful and hopeful might be enamored, the reality is they are short on ability and, now that the veil of Howard has been lifted they are all alone; very naked.
In contrast the ALP is over flowing with talent and we ought not to forget that all the ALP ministers matched and often out performed the Howard ministers in their debates prior to the election. With most of those under performing ministers out in the back benches there is even a larger gaping hole on the front bench.
The ALP have the likes of Shorten, Combe, McKew on the reserves bench at the moment. Each one of them is the equal to anything on the LNP front bench at the moment.
Swan has plenty of time to attune himself to the new environment and even today did a much better job now that he worked out Turnbull’s trick was nothing more than picking acronyms or teasers from an economic text book.
The LNP are on a long cold march. I wouldn’t have too much faith in Turnbull – he was pretty much a failure when he did have a portfolio and is likely to be a paper tiger – he truly lacks any gifts. The LNP really need to dump all of them except maybe Joe for his friendly agreeable bearing.
Megan 407, I believe there’s a good deal of circumstantial evidence to support this theory.
now you have me bewilded apres ,
ESC last night wrote 20 line of uplifting philosophy with the catch at the end to me asking who wrote it
I replied: Philosophy without substance , is like sex without a woman
Then Harry asked GP what he GP did all day and I replied,
GP being generic , clearly sex was not an option
Now you suggest “it” may be the same person but the sex is either unknown or generic meaning my replies were wasted on generics
Ron Says: @ 393
{Roy Morgan has got it wrong before}
Hey Ron. How long has Roy Morgan been working for Newspoll?
Scorpio
The last Roy Morgan Poll 2 days before the Election had the normal ‘intro’ from Gary which Possum suggests is useless as Gary is not a political interpretor.
the ‘intro’ contained many statistical figures contained in the detailed Poll numbers…but one varied from the detailed Poll figures
I rang Roy Morgan & spoke to Gary himself , after 60 seconds backwards & forwards on stats he acknowledged the error & said he’d correct his site
(which he did)
I was not inspired with confidence from the exchange & can fully endorse Possum’s conclusions.
As to the 9% for Nelson Scorpio , I do not think the figure is credible but most would disagree with me
and taking the Poll around the ‘apology’ further distorted the figures against Nelson
Just to clear up all the vitriolic confusion, I am male.
No 412
It’s easy to dismiss the Coalition as talentless after a landslide loss, but I think you’re being rather naive. I can tolerate the excessive love-in about the advent of a Labor Government, but the opposition is not without talent.
Just wait till a scandal/polarising issue arises, then things will balance out. All Governments eventually drop down to Earth after an endearing honeymoon.
No 416
Finally, we reach agreement on something.
Random response, whatever appeals to me.
Mouse pads. Min and Mao.
There are Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing.
There are million mouse mats in the ring
And that’s a fact.
There are fewer choices in the World
A lovely thing is a Choice Mat of the world
And that’s a fact
There a some million mouse mats in t
Crikey , a gem
GP has not replied Crikey as you lost him with your logic
Oh.
Not quite composed.
No relation to Wayne.
Sympathy, however.
Good.
Anyone would be bewildered, harder even for GP.
the current LCP chaos is causing considerable joy , inevitably the polls will come significantly closer together. Perhaps Hockey who I’ve praised from his
4 Corners interview may end up as a surprise packet
{As to the 9% for Nelson Scorpio , I do not think the figure is credible but most would disagree with me}
Ron! Maybe there is a 3% margin of error with this figure.
It could be 13% which could flatter Nelson, or worse still, only 6% which would really be scraping the bottom of the barrel.
I meant 12%.
This will please Glen.
{CHRIS Judd is the new captain of Carlton. The Blues have just announced his appointment, with Nick Stevens as his vice-captain.}
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23239446-661,00.html
Given that 47.5% of the country voted for the Coalition, that 9% figure just simply does not make any sense.
429
Generic Person – no- you are right – NO time or events have occurred since 24 Nov 2007
What about the 70% PPM figure for Rudd, GG?
No 430
Otiose you cannot credibly argue that a significant proportion of Coalition voters simply decided to switch sides after the election and support Rudd. That’s a fallacious position at best.
432
Generic Person – non-fallaciousness (credibility) is not mine – it’s the pollsters
{Otiose you cannot credibly argue that a significant proportion of Coalition voters simply decided to switch sides after the election and support Rudd. That’s a fallacious position at best.}
432,
I would suggest that a significant proportion of “Liberal” voters have done just that.
I would further suggest that they were the last minute waverers who dropped the polling figures for Labor in the last 2 weeks and voted Coalition but almost immediately regretted what they had done.
I further suggest that events since November 24th have reinforced that regret.
I further suggest that they will be very hard to win back to the Coalition fold in the next 3 years, especially if Rudd & Co can keep up the pace they have shown so far.
No 434
I’ll await a more consistent spread of polling before making any judgments about voter intentions.
I think it is much too early to rely on these polls, and even more naive to believe they are going to be norm for the next three years.
GP, a significant number of ex-Howard government MPs simply decided to switch sides after the election and support Rudd on Kyoto, the Apology and related indigenous policies, plus we now have the backdown on AWAs, admissions that Work Choices was unfair and a repudiation of Howard himself as a leader who was more interested in himself than his beloved party as seen on 4Cs.
What is so “fallacious” about the voters doing the same. It’s a fact that public support for the Apology went up after the Apology itself was delivered. This was Rudd leading by example, a much better example than Tuckey, Mirabella et al demonstrated when they spat the dummy and either walked out of Parliament or boycotted the Apology sitting.
Face it GP: you’re a denialist relic, a shag on a rock, isolated and rather pathetic in your impersonation of a one-man Coalition cheer squad.
Rudd may not last as PM for 10 years, as Howard did, but the winds of change are blowing. You’d do well to up stakes and forget past allegiances, as it seems that most Coalition parliamentarians have – at least on several major issues so far – as has the public, as evidenced in the latest Newspoll.
You can rail all you like about what’s probable, possible and fallacious… but whether you like it or not with Nelson on 9%, Rudd on 70% (give or take a few per cent… what does it matter with those figures) and Labor on 57% 2PP, with the Coalition on 36% primary, you’re on a hiding to nothing.
The country has moved on. So should you.
435,
{I think it is much too early to rely on these polls, and even more naive to believe they are going to be norm for the next three years.}
This would have to be one of the few times that I am in complete agreement with you.
Hope it doesn’t spoil your day.
Cheers, Scorpio
Scorpio , I would wish to share your optimism re the 9% but can not for statistical & political ‘block’ reasons.
What I’m suggesting is twofold:
The present Poll was taken around the ‘apology’ period and during Kevin07’s honeymoon and following the ‘good’ newsof Kyoto & the impending removal of AWA’s and during the worst cycle of “recognition” for any new Opposition Leader.
It will never get so good again but if an election was held now , the 2PP may be approx at best 55% to 57% not 91% as the 9%s SOMEWHAT implys. The current ALP record 2PP is Hawke’s approx 53.3% and Howard reached 2PP approx 53.5%
In that context , the 9% was disregarded by me
This here is not a good look.
{A LEAKED submission reveals that the Coalition leadership was overruled by its own front bench and forced to abandon the last vestige of John Howard’s industrial relations reforms, Australian Workplace Agreements.
The backdown was an embarrassment for the leadership team of Brendan Nelson and Julie Bishop, who had argued publicly for the retention of the individual contracts.
But at two separate shadow ministry meetings on Monday they were overruled by colleagues who felt AWAs were inextricably linked to Work Choices, a key factor in the Coalition’s election defeat last year.
Ms Bishop denied she was rolled but the Herald has obtained a confidential written submission she took to the Monday morning meeting. It canvassed various options for the Coalition to use its Senate majority to delay or block the abolition of AWAs.}
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/liberal-frontbenchers-roll-leader-on-agreements/2008/02/19/1203190824091.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
{Ms Bishop’s submission argued that Labor’s bill to abolish AWAs would take Workplace Relations back to the pre-1996 era.
“The Coalition introduced AWAs in 1996 and support for them was tested at the 1998, 2001 and 2004 elections,” it says.
“Support for the right of individuals to directly negotiate an individual contract with their employer, subject to a no-disadvantage test, is a core principle of the Coalition.”
In a sign of the distrust permeating senior Coalition ranks, the Herald learned that Ms Bishop had kept the submission deliberately vague and omitted any final recommendations because she was concerned it would be leaked.}
Looks like it is going to be an uncomfortable first 6 months for the Liberal Front Bench team. Infighting and leaking profusely is not a good look.
No 439
It’s better this process of re-evaluation and self-reflection happens now not in 3 years time.
On closer reflection, I think the choice to backflip on AWAs/Workchoices was prudent. The Liberal Party already knew about its dire poll result the evening prior and hence to append a policy backflip to such news is really an exercise is efficient face-saving through the media. It doesn’t look good, but it keeps media frenzy to a minimum.
I am listening to Tony Delroy, Issue of the Day, as I do.
The first couple of callers expressed their hopes, under the Rudd Government.
The usual suspect, extreme cynic, phoned in. The ‘all the same’ deal.
The woman speaking now seems to think that her husband’s AWA is a better thing.
That he can work it through on its merits. Not, as she says, she has looked for one moment at the agreement, nor even asked her husband. She seems to think that because he is, according to her judgment, a fantastic worker, that he will not be replaced.
She says that he is one of the three or four left, of the original work force in his area. It appears that she thinks that her husband’s AWA and his diligence will suffice.
She did not raise an alternative scenario. What dismissal would mean. What her husband’s AWA allows, in terms of ‘that’s it.’
This string of articles coming out in today’s papers won’t help the Coalition cause any either.
The trouble for them is the pain is all self inflicted. They can’t really blame the media for closely following their untidy and disjointed introduction to the world of opposition.
[NOT three months into the Liberal Party leadership of Brendan Nelson, it has become all but impossible to discern what he stands for.
The two issues on which he appeared most resolute when he ascended to the party’s top job — the future of WorkChoices and the wisdom of an official apology to Aborigines forcibly taken from their families — have had him and his party shifting and turning as they tried to get on the right side of public opinion. In the process, he has left deep gouges in his credibility with an electorate that approves of politicians of conviction and punishes ditherers.
The polls show the damage: }
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23242899-13360,00.html
{THE Coalition has called an end to its 12-year crusade to break union power in the workplace through individual contracts, forcing deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop into a humiliating public backdown.
After weeks of insisting that Australian Workplace Agreements were essential to workplace flexibility, Ms Bishop confirmed yesterday that the Coalition would not seek to block the Rudd Government’s plan to purge the contracts from the industrial system.
The reversal came after senior Liberals including Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and Christopher Pyne argued privately that it was “madness” to cling to AWAs.}
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/libs-give-up-on-12year-ir-crusade/2008/02/19/1203190822590.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
{BURYING a government is a messy business. Just ask Brendan Nelson and his mates.
Burying a leader can be pretty awful as well. And that is under way, too.}
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/liberals-to-limp-on-in-gathering-gloom/2008/02/19/1203190822671.html
Most of the MSM are carrying similar headings in numerous articles all in the same vein. They probably won’t let go of this for a day or so and the Libs will sustain considerable damage in the process.
No 442
Crikey I don’t really see what the problem is – if a certain business or industry is contracting, so will its workforce. The idea that people are in one job for the entirety of their lives is absurd, and its part of the reason why the union movement gradually became so insignificant in the workplace: worker mobility and the casualisation of the workforce.
In the end, subject to a reasonable safety net in the form of a minimum wage, it is up to the worker to prove his or her value to the business at hand.
{On closer reflection, I think the choice to backflip on AWAs/Workchoices was prudent.}
441,
The big problem for them is they are loo late. They took too long and demonstrated procrastination and division. Not a good look.
I’m afraid I have to agree with Michelle Gratten’s Analysis on this.
{To cut its losses, the Coalition should have got its position definitively out of the way before Christmas, when Nelson pronounced WorkChoices dead. But like everything else, the issue dragged on, as Opposition figures argued about what to do, split between those who wanted to retain something of the philosophy and those preoccupied with commonsense politics.}
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/liberals-to-limp-on-in-gathering-gloom/2008/02/19/1203190822671.html
Oh the Humilty for the School Prefect.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/20/2167246.htm
GP.
The dear wife has not, self confessed, the faintest idea of the terms of her spouse’s agreement.
Now, that is a matter for them, but I suspect once her husband’s use by date is reached, ‘worker mobility and the casualisation of the workforce’ will have meaning.
She did not mention a safety net, she mentioned what she imagines is the worth of her husband. She believes that the business holds him in the same regard.
Her husband’s worth, to her, is proven.
The question remains, is it, to the employer?
And as Tony delicately implied, what if he were replaceable by two low wage youngsters.
Golly, Scorpio and Frank.
Good that you are at the barricades!
I was even assaulted earlier tonight by someone who immediately bought into the Rudd arrangements for their son.
Not that I am up to speed on this matter, and the whatevers.
Still feel besieged, already.
No 447
Then clearly that is the market at play. To be involved in that market, the husband would need to reskill and compete on quality.
No 445
But Michelle Grattan is being rather optimistic about the real situation within the party at that time.
They had just suffered a crushing defeat and there was still uncertainty as to how to proceed. Of course, these things should have been proffered and finalised much earlier, but when the party is so divided, it really isn’t that simple.
So, with that in mind, it is unsurprising that the party then sought to minimise the damage by revealing the backflip on the same day as the 9% poll result. Efficient face-saving.
By 2010, the electorate will have long forgotten these petty squabbles, providing that the Coalition remains consistent in its approach to policy hereafter.
Nuh, GP.
Please explain how that is to happen.
Real world, if you would not mind.
Mortgage, children, school fees, income, training opportunities.
Pages: « 1 … 7 8 [9] 10 11 … 13 » Show All