The last significant presidential primaries until March 4 will be held tomorrow our time: primaries in Wisconsin and Washington for both parties, plus caucuses in Hawaii for the Democrats. Discuss them at your leisure here.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Washington, Wisconsin, Hawaii
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So Davidoff assuming full PR you are assuming Obama will win Wisconsin tomorrow 60-40% based on a 20 delegate lead amongst 92 delegates to be elected is that correct?>
50 – Davidoff
Interesting numbers. On what basis did you determine the positive/negative points advantage for each state?
It seems fairly optimistic Obama wise. By that I mean it doesn’t appear to reflect the recent poll averages for the states I have seen.
#51
The numbers mean that I assuming Obama will win Wisconsin 60-40%. There are 74 pledged delegates Wisconsin which I’m estimating would break out 44/30 (but the delegate calculations are not precise as in reality there are lots of rules that I’m ignoring).
Is it 74 or 92, realclearpolitics lists both figures on its site.
#52
asanque
It’s just my own crystal ball gazing, watching polls, their trends, the end results, the movement of undecided voters, and trends in overestimated Clinton support, plus I’m throwing into that a lot of skepticism about the Latino block which IMO is not the function to watch – as opposed to new immigrants compared to long time present enthnic communities (which is much more relevant in places like Texas). And into all of this I’m throwing in factors such as rate of decay inside Camp Clinton while also monitoring the energy level inside Obamaland.
I have been reading about the way that delegates are apportioned in Texas. It is all pretty confusing, but in short, it seems that Democratic delegates are given to districts proportionally to their turnout in the 2004 Presidential election. So even if Clinton manages to mobilise large numbers of Hispanic voters who have not voted before, this will not be reflected in her delegate count. On the other hand, inner city areas and college populations in Austin etc, will be generously awarded.
davidoff,
We could all quibble but I doubt if the consensus would be much different (overall) from your predictions.
Where I’m not fully convinced is in the theory that the super-dels will automatically follow the popular vote winner. For the sake of the Dems you would hope so, but Hillary is nothing if not determined, and she and Bill combined would be, frankly, a bit scary to deal with for the average super-del.
#54
Wisconsin has 74 pledged and 18 unpledged delegates (total 92).
I believe that 1968 was the last time that superdelegates voted against the popular vote. SDs from individual states have then voted contrary to their state results, but even in 84, when their was last controversy, Mondale had won the popular vote before the SDs locked in behind him. It would be a huge break with convention for SDs to vote against whoever has the most delegates and popular votes.
An SD break would probably require a change of party name.
#57
Dyno,
The only thing relevant about the pledged delegate count will be the magnitude – if its something like Obama by 10 then the superdelegates can safely ignore it and just vote who they think should win. But if the number of pledged delegates is up around 100 or more I’m guessing a lot of superdelegates will tipping their hats to the winner to ensure that the result is a self evident delivery of the people’s vote.
#59
most pledged delegates
most delegates including superdelegates who have come out
most votes across the country
most states
there. oops. I’m a their/there guy now two.
Finnigan Plural at 38 sez:
Well, at least his handlers had the smarts not to choose the Bee Gee’s “Spicks & Specks”.
Miffed Eddy at 44 bleats:
“Is that what I am reduced to “interjector” Pancho? Not even a member of the Bludger community?”
Eddy, Eddy, we accept you, we accept you, one of us, one of us…..
Besides, this site needs all the “Trained Historians” it can get!
What was the Oscar Wilde quote about clubs EC?
Historians require training – PhDs. That is why the likes of Windschuttle and Irving are best referred to as ‘writers’ in spite of their pretensions. I know this is irrelevant to the point being made, just my reflexive response.
#53 – davidoff Says: “The numbers mean that I assuming Obama will win Wisconsin 60-40%”. Why stop there? Why not assume that Obama will win by 99-1% because I saw the latest poll done on 16/2/08 is Hillary 49% and Obama 43%.
I wouldn’t put much store in the ARG poll.
They have Clinton leading Obama 49% to 43% for Feb 15-16 yet the figures reverse for 17-18 Feb: Obama 52% Clinton 42%.
I can’t imagine the figures are so volatile.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
67- The Finnigans
The second latest poll is Hillary 49% and Obama 43%
The latest poll is Hillary 40% and Obama 53%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wi/wisconsin_democratic_primary-270.html
Then again, I don’t think he’ll win Wisconsin by 20 points either.
#69 – Not questioning the actual poll numbers, just the basis of the assumption. Otherwise, it is meaningless.
What rubbish. Anyone can appropriately reflect on history without having a Phd beside their name.
#67
The Finnigans
I figure that would be just plain silly – but if you want to go there – be my guest. By the way my excuse is that I’m just answering some questions with my opinion on my expectation of the race as things stand (see my #55 post for the rationale). So, what’s your excuse?
No 17
What Zakaria fails to acknowledge in his decree on the “end of conservatism” is the obvious contradiction between public perceptions on government spending and international interference.
On the one hand, he comments that the people are largely indifferent toward tax cuts and would prefer the funds were better spent, yet on the other, there is virulent support by Republicans on heinously expensive foreign policy.
Part of the reason why the USA has such a ridiculous budget deficit is due to its aggressive foreign policy and Ron Paul has advocated several times that this why the Republican party “has lost its way” – reckless and incompetent spending.
Background info on the Wisconsin primary and the Hawaii caucus:
Wisconsin: polls open from 7:00 AM (10 PM tonight) to 8:00 PM (12 MD tomorrow). For the Democrats race the polls are open for Democrats, Republicans and Independents and new voters can register at the polls (which is all good for Obama’s fired up ready to go constituency).
Hawaii the caucus opens at 6.30 PM (3.30 PM tomorrow) and begin at 7.00 PM (4.00 PM tomorrow). New voters can register at their caucus location and Republicans and Independents can change their registration at the location.
#72 – My excuse? Apologia Pro Vita Sua
And anyone can reflect on economics, but it doesn’t make them an economist. My point is not that only PhDs can ‘reflect’ on history, as you put it GP, but that organisations such as the Australian Historical Association (and its equivalents internationally) recognise a PhD as the appropriate training for a ‘professional’ historian.
So you can have ‘trained historians’, and by this definition the likes of Windschuttle fall short. But this is marginalia and I don’t mean to be stoking ‘history wars’, sorry all.
Hey Diogenes,
Fidel has “retired” I bet he is already in the freezer, its not looking good for you, first Biggs now Fidel and of course the cardinal – the chickens will come home to roost in good order.
LOL ESJ!!
FYI
Between 01:17 AM (East Coast) and 03:32 AM (in the wee small hours of the night) – a period of about 2 hours and 15 mins. the Obama campaign received 87 donations.
davidoff,
That was probably Ron emailing a donation 87 times on his nursing homes computer.
No 80
He must be experiencing a rather profligate retirement, I dare say ESJ!
Probably raided his jars of 1 and 2 cent pieces hidden under the bed. No sign of him today because he has been busy counting them GP.
The state has been supporting him so long that it is surprising that he has found the initiative to do some real work! Dear me…
LOL GP!
“What was the Oscar Wilde quote about clubs EC?”
OK, Eddy, but only because you’ve been a good boy.
“There’s many a man walking the streets of London with the arse out of his pants through not leading with the right bower when clubs are trumps”
ESJ- I believe the quote you were thinking of was by Groucho Marx as follows “Please accept my resignation. I don’t want to belong to any club that will accept me as a member.” And Fidel was on the top of my list too. The game is still afoot (and Billy Graham’s my trump card).
I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member.
Groucho Marx
You get to say snap! Dio.
Notice the respite wards staff let the two tweedys out today for a hens party
and there was Davidoff patiently answering their blurred questions from the recess’s of their insomnia.
looks like the dearys now have been locked up for the night for their own protection………such a waste of my tax payers money
Don’t any of you Obama huggers have a problem with him not talking about the issues whatsoever, isn’t it wrong to simply run on rhetoric?
I didn’t like Clinton’s antics early on but Obama is running on Rhetoric…and if he wins many moderate Democrats who backed her just may think about voting for McCain…
Panch #76. The point about Windschuttle is not that he doesn’t have a PHD necessarily. There has been some excellent history done by people without one. The point is more that his approach reveals a complete ignorance (or perhaps more a wilful defiance) of rigorous historiographic method. It’s possible to do history without a PHD, but in Keithy boy’s case it’s clear that some training would have helped.
In any case, as a Marxist historian of Tasmanian Aboriginal descent, I (funnily enough) don’t like Windschuttle very much. But even though my PhD has just been passed and he hasn’t got one, his lack of formal qualifications is the least of my concerns about him.
which policys are you happy with with Macca as opposed to Rudy
Well, further proof, if any was needed, that Glen can read the big print on the front of newspapers.
Pity, but that seems to be about all he reads.
KR , have been talking about you on the other thread my friend
409
Scorpio Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 11:46 pm
Kirribilli Removals
You certainly have a way with words KR.
Very well put.
411
Ron Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
Scorpio
thats because he has time on his hands since he moved John & Janet , but that may change with his new superhornet removalist fleet having potential business
Gee, what a surprise coming from an exponent of Marxism, an economic and social theory totally dismissed by most rational thinkers.
and you are the arbitrator of who is a rational thinker and/or who are ?
and your comment in #73 in the 2nd paragraph where you see a contradiction
but there is not one…..fine rational thinking you’ve displayed there
That was a devastating critique of Marxism GP. I’ll have to rethink my ideas. I never knew “most rational people” dismissed it. In any case you don’t have to be a Marxist to realise that Windschuttle is a fruitcake. I was merely pointing out the fact that I’m a member of every demographic he hates. I might even add, for the record, that I was born in the Old Canberra Hospital, now the site of the National Museum that the right-wing culture warriors hate so much.
Make the case, and I just might agree with you.
Presumably people doesn’t equal Republicans – especially this year when the Repugs are so on the nose.
Mate, when a Marxist can give me a legitimate and logical explanation concerning the labour theory of value, perhaps I’d be less inclined to dismiss Marxism. Thus far, I’ve not read anything that isn’t beyond absurd.
unfortunately ‘Polling’ is not an exact science.
For a variety of reasons a ‘motherhood’ question is likely to draw a wrongly weighted response in favor of the greater good than SOME pollees
personally believe
Polling in Australia has ALWAYS shown between tax cuts & public spending, pollees pick the later….but the Pollies generally ignore this Poll result and offer the former being tax cuts rather than public spending as their prime election offer.
For all the reasons you are no doubt aware , the US citizen generally & Republican policy in particular has had the military & the protection of US soil by fighting the enemy away from US soil as a strong article of faith.
Be it the Soviets or the Iranians nuke threat or Saddam WMB’s or the Terror threat , or the need to protect ‘oil’ US allies or defend Israel the Republican voter sees these issues as first priority worth the money & cost. Even Hillary Clinton (but not Edwards) , until Obama attacked her ‘left’ flank generally supported this priority.
Whilstever the US is not seen to be dramatically losing US lives that support remains (particlularly Republican) and so my view to the comment “yet on the other, there is virulent support by Republicans on heinously expensive foreign policy” is not surprising
The degree of spending excess & if its economically justified raises different issues
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